Western Standard - LIVE： Election Night 2021

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00:05:30.000 Thank you.

00:06:00.000 Thank you.

00:06:30.000 Good evening.

00:06:43.620 Today is, what is it?

00:06:46.360 September 20th.

00:06:47.420 It's election day.

00:06:48.080 Voting day.

00:06:48.940 I can never remember.

00:06:49.780 It is September 20th.

00:06:51.160 It is election day in Canada, or at least the East is voting.

00:06:55.780 Yes.

00:06:56.180 We're voting, but, you know, we'll see what's going to happen.

00:06:58.760 Thank you very much for joining me tonight.

00:07:00.660 We're very excited to have you here on a special edition.

00:07:04.780 This isn't not even the pipeline.

00:07:05.980 This is just an election special.

00:07:07.560 We've got a really great program set up for you tonight,

00:07:10.780 focused on a Western Canadian perspective for election 2021.

00:07:17.020 I'm joined, as usual always, by the intrepid news editor of the Western Standard, Dave Naylor.

00:07:23.260 Top of the evening to you, Dave.

00:07:24.480 It's going to be a long one and a good one.

00:07:26.040 I think at some point the water might get replaced by beer.

00:07:29.900 We endeavor to keep things at least half in the bag, or half out of the bag, I should say, throughout the evening.

00:07:37.580 We do need nourishment.

00:07:40.440 We've got Corey Morgan, our Alberta political columnist, in studio with us, always adding some color.

00:07:46.620 Corey is also going to be co-hosting with me tonight.

00:07:48.860 It's going to be a long evening, so we're going to be rotating duties.

00:07:52.220 We're starting off here together, but Corey or I will be, at least one of us, will be here at all times hosting this evening.

00:08:00.640 But we've also got a lot of other really great guests coming on.

00:08:04.780 Coming to us from British Columbia, we have Aaron Gunn, who is a leading conservative and libertarian activist in that province.

00:08:14.200 Someone who's come to a fair bit of prominence lately from BC.

00:08:17.980 We also have Shauna Lane, who is with the Western Standard, acting as a correspondent for us there.

00:08:23.720 In Alberta, we have Jonathan Dennis, who is the former Alberta Minister of Justice and Solicitor General.

00:08:29.820 He'll be joining us from the Calgary campaign headquarters of the Conservative Party of Canada.

00:08:35.120 We'll have Vitor Marciano coming to us from Edmonton.

00:08:37.820 He is a longtime political strategist, former chief aide to both Danielle Smith and Brian Jean,

00:08:46.300 two former Wildrose leaders.

00:08:48.820 We've also got Franco Teresano coming to us from Ottawa.

00:08:52.980 He is the former Alberta director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation,

00:08:55.640 and he is now the federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

00:08:59.200 He'll be trying to give us an Albertan's perspective from Ottawa, if that makes any sense.

00:09:05.140 And last but not least, we've got Clinton DeVoe.

00:09:08.040 He's coming from us somewhere in the Atlantic.

00:09:10.400 Halifax.

00:09:11.140 Halifax.

00:09:11.740 Good Halifax boy.

00:09:12.580 I like Halifax people.

00:09:14.400 We're also going to be speaking with some of the candidates out there tonight,

00:09:16.860 By checking in with them, we have Michelle Rempel of the Conservative Party of Canada, 0.96

00:09:21.620 the Conservative candidate for Calgary Nose Hill, will be joining us live, Jay Hill, leader

00:09:26.440 of the Maverick Party, Maxime Bernier, leader of the People's Party, and Nadine Wellwood,

00:09:32.180 a People's Party candidate in the riding of Airdrie Banff.

00:09:37.700 And I'm sure we'll probably have some others pop in from time to time as things come up

00:09:40.620 and we see what transpires tonight.

00:09:43.940 So I think we're going to have a fascinating show coming to you from our new fancy studio.

00:09:49.320 Look at all the space in here.

00:09:50.320 Oh, yeah.

00:09:51.320 Great.

00:09:52.320 Not even touching your leg for a change.

00:09:53.320 Well, some things get worse with time.

00:09:58.220 So yeah, we're set up now.

00:10:03.240 I guess actually the first thing we're going to start off with, I'm going to ask every

00:10:06.180 guest when they first come on is predictions for the evening.

00:10:09.780 We're going to take, actually, I'm not sure we can do it because we have the first results

00:10:13.180 It's coming in now.

00:10:14.680 So actually, we're really just going to do results of the three of us or predictions

00:10:17.980 of the three of us because it's just too early.

00:10:20.360 Nothing is crazy happening right now.

00:10:23.060 Liberals are leading with seven seats and the Conservatives with three in the Atlantic

00:10:27.320 provinces.

00:10:28.320 But these are very early numbers.

00:10:29.380 So it's still fair enough, I think, to make predictions we haven't seen too much yet.

00:10:33.180 So really, it's just going to be the three of us with our predictions for the evening.

00:10:35.980 The loser buys the beer, runner-up buys the pizza.

00:10:40.180 I'm not sure which will be more expensive tonight.

00:10:43.160 So, Corey, what do you think is going to happen?

00:10:47.640 I am regretfully forecasting an increased liberal minority with a conservative opposition.

00:10:56.380 The NDP, of course, will hold the balance of power, and the bloc will hold their own.

00:11:00.440 The green are going to get decimated.

00:11:02.760 I think they're going to get skunked.

00:11:05.100 And it's a toss-up.

00:11:07.660 I think perhaps the PPC might take one seat.

00:11:10.420 I would hope to see maybe a surprise here and there with some strong individual candidates.

00:11:14.740 I think they're going to make some surprising showings and some excellent ones.

00:11:18.060 I just am not confident they're necessarily going to be able to get over that hump and pull in seats.

00:11:21.740 You said NDP holding the balance of power.

00:11:23.660 So are you predicting the NDP will have more seats than the block?

00:11:26.860 I believe so.

00:11:28.240 Wait a minute.

00:11:28.780 Where are we sitting now?

00:11:30.040 Right now the block is the third block.

00:11:31.180 Yeah.

00:11:31.640 No.

00:11:32.140 No, I'm sorry.

00:11:32.960 It's going to be pretty much similar to what we're at.

00:11:34.640 I think that the Liberals are going to pull in a couple more seats from each side there.

00:11:38.280 Okay.

00:11:38.560 But not enough for a majority, I don't think.

00:11:40.020 So you're predicting the NDP is in fourth?

00:11:42.880 Yes.

00:11:43.660 And are you predicting that the NDP would have by itself enough to hold a balance of power with the Liberals?

00:11:49.580 I'm getting confused. You're getting all mathy.

00:11:51.320 Okay, well, I'll let you figure that out.

00:11:53.120 They're going to have a minority and they're all going to fight. 0.99

00:11:54.780 Dave, what do you think is happening tonight?

00:11:57.060 I was talking to a gentleman I consider the most smartest man in politics.

00:12:02.320 He's an Ottawa insider.

00:12:03.160 Oh, you're kind.

00:12:04.200 And he is predicting, and I will join him in predicting, a handsome conservative minority government.

00:12:13.580 I think they'll have a safe minority.

00:12:18.660 I think the Liberals will lose out in B.C.

00:12:23.280 I think they'll lose some seats in Atlantic Canada.

00:12:26.640 I think the NDP will gain a few seats off the Liberals.

00:12:30.460 And unfortunately, I don't think the PPC will win any seats.

00:12:34.200 But they'll do well. They'll finish second in some...

00:12:37.260 This is extra points in case we have a tie on some issue.

00:12:40.540 Predicting how many seats for the greens and the NDP will get you some points.

00:12:44.520 So green, you say zero seats for the PPC. How many seats for the greens?

00:12:47.260 Zero green, zero PPC, 37 NDP.

00:12:51.260 Okay, so Melanie, who is helping produce tonight's show with our operations director, James.

00:12:58.220 Melanie, you want to keep track of these numbers here.

00:13:00.060 We have to see who pays for the beer tonight.

00:13:01.440 All right.

00:13:02.440 So Dave says, a healthy, handsome conservative minority with no green and no PPC seats.

00:13:13.440 Correct.

00:13:14.440 Corey says, an increased liberal minority?

00:13:16.440 Yeah, I don't want to say handsome when it comes to the liberals, no.

00:13:19.440 Would you say robust?

00:13:20.440 Robust, certainly.

00:13:21.440 I do think they're going to have more seats than they went in with, but they're not going

00:13:25.680 to get that majority they want.

00:13:26.680 Are the conservatives going to gain or lose seats?

00:13:30.620 I think they're going to lose a couple.

00:13:32.380 Okay.

00:13:33.380 And the third party is?

00:13:34.380 Third party, I guess the block.

00:13:35.860 Oh, who's your third party?

00:13:37.380 Oh, the block.

00:13:38.380 Block, block, and green and PPC seats.

00:13:43.380 I'm going to go out and say one PPC, zero green.

00:13:46.380 We can hope.

00:13:48.380 Hope.

00:13:49.380 Okay.

00:13:50.380 I suppose after that, now that I've gotten your bets, the good thing is the hedge in the

00:13:54.460 middle.

00:13:55.460 That's right.

00:13:56.460 Price is right strategy.

00:13:57.460 Yeah.

00:13:58.460 I'm going to go with a reduced liberal minority.

00:14:03.660 Actually, first I'm going to just preface by saying

00:14:05.920 there's no such thing as a minority government

00:14:09.980 technically on an election night

00:14:11.580 because the party with the most seats

00:14:13.880 does not get to form the government.

00:14:15.840 Andrew Scheer was lying through his teeth

00:14:17.480 when he said that, and he knew it.

00:14:18.540 He was a Speaker of the House.

00:14:19.500 He knows these rules.

00:14:21.160 It is more often than it is most of the time

00:14:24.520 the party with the most seats gets to form the government,

00:14:26.360 but it is actually the party or the person or group of MPs who can hold the confidence of the House.

00:14:33.120 So just if, even if the Conservatives have a plurality of seats,

00:14:36.620 that does not necessarily mean that they get to go and form the government on Tuesday.

00:14:41.740 Justin Trudeau is still the Prime Minister Tuesday,

00:14:44.840 and if he can continue to hold the confidence of the House of Commons, he will remain the Prime Minister.

00:14:49.440 So that was just my way of saying, if the Conservatives have the most seats tonight, but not a minority,

00:14:54.360 Unless they're really just shy of a majority, then they're almost certainly still the government.

00:14:59.880 But if the conservatives have the most seats, but not all of the, not a majority,

00:15:08.120 we're going to call that a conservative plurality.

00:15:10.900 And same with the liberals, although the liberals have an easier time

00:15:13.640 because they have more ideological dancing partners in parliament than the conservatives do.

00:15:17.260 So this is a roundabout way of saying, I think we're going to see a reduced liberal minority.

00:15:22.220 I think the Conservatives, they're going to be right around where they're at right now.

00:15:29.120 I'd chance the Conservatives might lose a little bit along the edges.

00:15:32.540 Not a lot, but I can see the Conservatives potentially losing a couple of seats.

00:15:38.820 The Bloc, I think the Bloc will remain the third party, but the NDP are going to see

00:15:43.360 very significant gains.

00:15:44.640 The NDP is going to have a very good election.

00:15:46.420 They could even see themselves as the third party.

00:15:48.120 It's not inconceivable.

00:15:48.960 people. I think we'll see one green seat. And I know our, we've got a lot of people.

00:15:57.200 He's on deck.

00:15:58.200 Oh, ah, there we go. I think we're going to see, I think we're going to see at least

00:16:06.280 one PPC seat. I have a feeling Max will eke it out and boast. We'll see what else happens.

00:16:13.480 We just don't have enough electoral history yet with the PPC to see where that support

00:16:16.960 concentrated we know there's a lot in alberta but it's quite possibly too spread out to be

00:16:21.120 concentrated and get a seat um so we're going to turn uh now to our first speaking of the ppc we're

00:16:27.760 going to turn to our first guest of the evening uh we have on the line with us uh people's party of

00:16:34.960 canada leader maxime bernier um we'll bring him into the stream now um bonjour how do you do max

00:16:45.040 yes great thank you very much very pleased to be with you well thank you very much for having us

00:16:51.680 um how are you feeling in boast tonight do you think uh you're going to be coming back to

00:16:56.960 represent uh the long time writing of yourself and your family i hope so i spoke with my team

00:17:04.080 right now i'm in saskatchewan for the election night but i spoke with my team today over there

00:17:09.040 in votes it's going very well when we started the campaign over there we were 10 points behind and

00:17:16.640 now we are in the margin of error so i believe it will be a tight race and we'll see the results

00:17:23.360 but like i said in the beginning of this campaign we want to grow our percentage of the vote all

00:17:29.440 across the country and i think it will happen tonight uh interesting decision to spend election

00:17:37.600 night in Saskatchewan. You've spent a lot of time in the West. You've spent more time in Alberta than

00:17:43.760 all of the other party leaders combined. Probably, I'm going to guess almost 10 times over. You've

00:17:49.760 spent quite a bit of time here. I know you were in Strathmore Saturday, Calgary Sunday,

00:17:56.800 really making your way around the prairies here. My question is, are you concerned as the Green 0.86

00:18:03.360 party, say, was building up. I mean, a somewhat, obviously, a radically different party than

00:18:07.520 yourself. But as the Green Party was building up, you know, it was trying to get votes across the

00:18:12.880 country. But when they won their first seat, they actually had a reduced amount of number of votes

00:18:18.720 when Elizabeth May won her first seat because they concentrated on her constituency on Vancouver 1.00

00:18:23.120 Island just outside of Victoria. Are you concerned that while your party has seen a very significant

00:18:29.600 increase in the polls you're probably going to outdo your 2019 numbers many times over but are

00:18:35.360 you concerned that the the vote is perhaps not concentrated enough to yield a seat in the house

00:18:40.880 of commons maybe we don't know but you're right that our party is popular now all across the

00:18:48.320 country and that's what we wanted to create a real national political party across the country

00:18:54.800 I was looking at the public polls today and in Canada, we're supposed to be at 14 percent.

00:19:01.680 In Alberta, the same thing. In Ontario, it's going very well. We are around 10 percent there.

00:19:07.360 Yes, and we'll see that's an important step for our party and for us that would be an historical

00:19:14.400 election. If we went from 1.6 to 6, 7, 8 or 10 percent of the votes, that would be a huge victory.

00:19:22.240 don't forget after 38 years now the Green Party is around 4% in the polls and if after three years

00:19:30.880 we are able to have on average across the country six seven eight percent that would be great and

00:19:36.800 we'll build from there but you are right to say that we don't know if we are more popular in the

00:19:43.520 region or in another one in Alberta it's going very well and yes I was there and also I spent a

00:19:50.000 a lot of times also in Ontario, in southern Ontario, northern of Ontario, we have a lot

00:19:57.040 of support there. So we'll see what will happen. But for me, the most important is this political

00:20:03.400 party will be there and we will build from that result of tonight. I'm going to throw it to Corey

00:20:10.640 in one second. But actually, before I do that, I just I have another question. After yourself,

00:20:17.380 I'm asking you to rub your crystal ball here for a second.

00:20:21.440 After Boats, if the PPC was to win a second seat, where do you think that would be?

00:20:28.920 I know you've got some strong campaigns running around the London, Ontario area with Chelsea Hillier. 0.99

00:20:36.300 Obviously, there is significant strength here in Alberta.

00:20:40.160 But after Boats, let's say you do well tonight and you win Boats, where do you predict your second seat comes from?

00:20:46.520 It would be very difficult to predict because we don't do any internal polls,

00:20:53.000 but I can tell you, you're right, Chelsea Hilliard, she's very popular in Alberta.

00:20:59.560 We have great candidates, but as you know there, the competition is huge with the conservative

00:21:05.000 when they're winning by 70%. But I can tell you that more and more people are fed up with the

00:21:11.160 conservative party with the united right at the provincial level so i don't know what can happen

00:21:17.880 but i hope we'll have a seat also or two in alberta we we don't know but for me like i said the most

00:21:25.000 important is to grow our percentage of the vote all across the country and that's an important

00:21:31.000 step and after that we'll know a little bit better and we'll be ready because after this election

00:21:36.440 for us it's only a new beginning we'll be back i will be back also across the country

00:21:43.800 uh working and building that that party because i believe that it

00:21:51.800 oh i think we've had a little trouble with max's feed

00:21:58.120 uh okay until we get max back here uh hopefully we can get this figured out

00:22:02.600 Okay, we're going to throw to Corey here.

00:22:07.940 Yeah, well, and I just want to say I appreciate you being out here lighting the prairie fire that you have

00:22:12.440 because the West and the prairies have been neglected and ignored, and we do get tired of that.

00:22:18.360 And I believe, you know, it's been appreciated.

00:22:21.600 Those rallies have been impressive.

00:22:23.040 You've been bringing issues to the table that other parties won't touch.

00:22:26.580 You're most definitely going to make a mark on this election no matter how things come about.

00:22:30.480 And you were kind of starting there, though.

00:22:31.960 So you've started, you're going to have a foundation after this election, a base,

00:22:36.840 but you're still really going to have to build that.

00:22:38.960 Is there going to be plans for a convention and more formal organization

00:22:43.340 and such for your party going forward?

00:22:45.120 Because it is difficult between elections.

00:22:47.200 Absolutely, absolutely.

00:22:48.440 What we want to do, we want to build a strong organization all across the country.

00:22:53.460 That would be my first task after this election, to be sure to build on that momentum

00:22:58.860 and to be ready for the next election.

00:23:02.480 Actually, like I said, this party is there for the long term.

00:23:05.900 And yes, you're right to say that we are speaking about issues

00:23:09.480 that are important for Western Canadians,

00:23:11.960 but also for all the country.

00:23:14.400 You know, when you have people in Alberta that are ready to separate,

00:23:18.580 I believe that it is important to speak about, you know,

00:23:21.680 changing the equalization formula to be less generous,

00:23:24.800 being sure that we'll build pipelines.

00:23:26.560 That's important for the prosperity of our country, but also for the unity of our country.

00:23:34.560 Max, we had some fun with predictions a few minutes before you came on.

00:23:40.560 All pundits seem to think it's going to be a minority.

00:23:44.560 The question is, will it be liberal or conservative?

00:23:48.560 Do you have any predictions early this evening?

00:23:51.560 I really don't know. You know, I'm concerned. I'm working about our party and I know that it would be a minority government. But for me, a conservative minority or liberal minority, it would be the same. They have the same platform on climate change. It will impose a carbon tax on pipelines. They won't do anything to build pipelines on mass immigration, on vaccine passport. They offer a mandatory vaccine passport.

00:24:19.560 So they're the same for me, a conservative minority or liberal minority, that would be the same.

00:24:26.140 I believe that the PPC will be the real opposition after this campaign, because with our platform, we will be the real opposition and we are speaking about the real issues for Canadians.

00:24:40.620 Max, you've obviously really tapped into the movement around mandatory vaccine passports and lockdowns.

00:24:48.220 lockdowns, that has very much propelled your campaign forward. I mean, your party has gone

00:24:53.320 from, I mean, most polls had the party, but somewhere between one and two percent, really

00:24:58.580 when the RIT dropped to the lowest polls have you at six percent, the highest polls have

00:25:03.860 you just a little over 11 percent right now. I think very much driven by the lockdown and

00:25:12.820 mandatory vaccine passport issues, but we're going to be coming, I mean, every election's

00:25:18.360 got its own set of issues.

00:25:20.440 After this election, what do you think is going to, eventually COVID will go away.

00:25:25.320 I'm terrified that in two years, we're still going to be dealing with this.

00:25:29.060 I'm not terribly optimistic that this is going any way, anytime soon, but let's say that

00:25:34.380 in a year from now, we're beyond this and vaccine passports have been dropped, lockdowns

00:25:41.360 a thing of the past what is the what are the issues that you're going to press on to be able

00:25:46.960 to kind of keep this momentum going because clearly these issues have massively propelled

00:25:53.680 interest and excitement for your party going forward but those issues are eventually hopefully

00:25:59.040 going to go away so what is it you're going to be focusing on when we get past this but you know we

00:26:05.120 are running right now on the same platform that we had in 2019 and that would be the same one at

00:26:12.160 the next general election because we are doing politics differently because we base the foundation

00:26:18.000 of this party on four principles individual freedom personal responsibility respect and

00:26:23.120 fairness and you are right to say that this campaign the focus was uh on the violation of

00:26:29.520 our rights and freedoms and we are the only political party that is speaking against the

00:26:34.880 vaccine passport so yes we have a lot of support and because of that we were we were able to be

00:26:43.040 known with more canadians that was a big challenge for us before this election so for the next

00:26:48.960 election that would be the same platform and i don't know maybe the focus will be on immigration

00:26:54.160 next time. Maybe it will be on balancing the budget. But we will always have the same platform

00:27:00.480 at every election until we win our battle. And we need to have, like I said, an ideological

00:27:07.200 revolution in this country. We are going to the left. We are a socialist country right now.

00:27:13.920 We have four socialist political parties. And we need to do this battle of ideas and to win that.

00:27:21.760 I don't know what will be the focus for the next election, but for us, people can look at our

00:27:26.880 platforms and we will always fight for a clearer and a more prosperous country.

00:27:33.440 Max, before I let you go, I want to ask you about the impact of Alberta Premier

00:27:39.440 JC Kenney in this campaign. I know it's had a significant impact in Alberta, I think,

00:27:44.480 for voters on left and right, and some pundits are suggesting outside of Alberta,

00:27:50.080 And you certainly had some words for the Alberta Premier while you were in Strathmore and in Calgary.

00:27:56.880 What impact do you think the actions of the Kenney government and their about face on things like vaccine passports and a fourth lockdown,

00:28:07.420 what impact do you think this has had on your campaign before I let you go?

00:28:11.140 Well, I believe that now people understand that Jason Kenney that supported O'Toole for this campaign

00:28:17.620 and Jason and O'Toole are the same on the mandatory vaccine passport, and both of them

00:28:24.660 are flip-flopping on every important issue. Now O'Toole on every important issue for Western

00:28:30.580 Canadians is like the Liberals, so he won't fight for Western Canadians, and that's why I believe 1.00

00:28:37.060 that we have more and more support. So, O'Toole just shows us that he's not a conservative anymore

00:28:44.020 like who too well max thank you very much for joining us and being generous with your time

00:28:50.180 this evening uh good luck in the boats and uh i guess where you are right now in the west thank

00:28:56.260 you thank you i appreciate that have a nice evening au revoir okay well uh we're gonna go

00:29:03.140 to an update on the numbers right now uh gabe why don't you give us a breakdown i think uh

00:29:09.620 the polls are only uh showing any results only in the atlantic right now yeah right now we're

00:29:15.220 getting results from newfoundland and nova scotia in the last election the liberals took 27 seats

00:29:23.300 the tories four and the ndp won right now the the writings that are coming in we've got the liberals

00:29:31.220 at an even dozen Conservatives for an NDP-1. So still a few more regions coming in from

00:29:40.640 Atlantic Canada, but it's pretty well going as expected at the moment, I think.

00:29:46.240 Where, so this is Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, right?

00:29:50.380 Correct.

00:29:51.380 Okay. These are obviously, at least Newfoundland has been traditionally, at least in the last

00:29:56.100 few cycles, a liberal stronghold. Why don't you give us a lay of the land in, actually you know

00:30:02.180 who we have. Oh, we don't have anymore. We have Clinton DeVoe coming. He's coming a little later.

00:30:06.120 I think he was testing his link. Okay, we're gonna have Clinton DeVoe giving us some Atlantic

00:30:09.700 update. Our next guest is gonna be in 20 minutes, Jonathan Dennis. So actually, Mel, why don't you

00:30:18.380 pull up the map, show us where we're at right now. And we're gonna have Josh Andrus is gonna

00:30:25.240 to join us with some thoughts soon.

00:30:27.160 And I think you'll take us through Jonathan Dennis

00:30:29.120 and I'll be back in time for Mr. Vitor Marciano.

00:30:32.300 Sure.

00:30:33.140 So let's pull up the map, put up the board

00:30:35.460 and let's see where we're at.

00:30:41.420 Pull up the big screen, all the way.

00:30:44.420 There we go.

00:30:48.980 Yeah, sorry, I'm just trying to make

00:30:52.700 this Elections Canada website work.

00:31:00.300 I'll zoom in a bit here.

00:31:02.140 Yeah, my poor eyes, my poor eyes.

00:31:05.140 So you guys are ahead of the Elections Canada site.

00:31:09.800 You got 15 Liberals leading,

00:31:12.680 Conservatives five, NDP one.

00:31:15.820 As you say, Derek, it looks like

00:31:18.800 Newfoundland is staying solidly liberal.

00:31:22.500 Nova Scotia's got a little bit of Tory blue in it.

00:31:30.560 Where is that NDP seed?

00:31:37.620 Shout it out, Mel.

00:31:38.820 Where's the NDP seed?

00:31:40.740 A little chunk of red down in the...

00:31:42.080 Oh, the little chunk of red.

00:31:43.420 Or is that liberal?

00:31:44.560 Why is the NDP red?

00:31:46.500 No, there should be an orange piece.

00:31:48.100 Should be orange.

00:31:49.120 Should be orange.

00:31:49.760 All right, ignore that red.

00:31:51.320 That's, oh, there it is. Holy cow. It's really tiny.

00:32:00.240 So certainly it looks like the Conservatives are now leading in one more seat than they had a disillusion.

00:32:10.360 So the Ottawa insiders are saying the Liberal campaign out in the Maritimes is a bit of a mess at the moment.

00:32:18.480 and they're expecting to lose up to three Liberal seats.

00:32:23.800 Apparently the fisheries minister's seat is in play.

00:32:29.840 Well, and I see actually we do have Clinton DeVoe in the lobby,

00:32:33.300 you know, and we're talking about the Maritimes

00:32:34.840 and those results that are starting to trickle in there.

00:32:38.080 Clinton's from Halifax.

00:32:39.140 He's been on our shows a number of times.

00:32:42.100 He's quite the poll watcher.

00:32:44.600 Let's bring Clinton in and see what he's got to say.

00:32:48.480 How are you doing, Clinton?

00:32:49.760 Good evening.

00:32:50.400 Pleasure to chat with you folks out west.

00:32:52.040 How are things going so far?

00:32:54.100 Well, so far so good with, you know, we've got a great viewership.

00:32:58.700 We've got a lot to look forward to and a lot to talk about.

00:33:01.760 And in the usual nature of Canada, we're going to be moving from east to west.

00:33:05.420 So what are your, I guess we'll start with your predictions.

00:33:09.220 I mean, Dave just ran through what's kind of coming in, but they're pretty early numbers.

00:33:12.040 What do you figure is going to happen on the east coast there?

00:33:14.700 Well, look, for the Conservative Party of Canada to have a good night, it needs to win the riding in Newfoundland of Bonavista-Burin-Trinity.

00:33:24.580 So that's a riding where there's a strong conservative candidate that's well known in the community.

00:33:30.440 It's a riding that in the past has voted conservative on a number of different elections.

00:33:36.560 And if we're going to see the conservatives win a minority or a majority government, it's going to have to start in that riding.

00:33:44.700 The other thing that we need to see happen is the riding of St. John's East.

00:33:50.780 So that's a riding which used to vote Liberal.

00:33:55.060 It became a new Democratic Party stronghold in Newfoundland.

00:34:00.280 And the Liberals really want that riding.

00:34:03.400 So if the Conservatives can win Bonavista, Burren, Trinity, and the Liberals can lose St. John's East,

00:34:11.880 That could be the start of a potential change as we work our way west.

00:34:20.020 In Nova Scotia, there's a couple of ridings that the Conservatives need to pick up and hold.

00:34:26.780 So the federal riding of West Nova is one the Conservatives desperately need to hold on to.

00:34:33.940 The other one to look for in Nova Scotia is Cape Breton Canso.

00:34:38.020 It's an incredibly important riding for the Conservatives.

00:34:40.680 Again, they have a popular candidate.

00:34:42.980 And if they're going to start to change the tide in this country blue,

00:34:46.700 that's another one of those key ridings that they need to pick up.

00:34:50.680 And another riding to look for is Colchester Muscat-Aubit.

00:34:54.740 So that was former Conservative MP Bill Casey's old riding,

00:34:58.760 who eventually became a Liberal.

00:35:01.360 So those are the first steps in Atlantic Canada.

00:35:05.440 The other spot to look for is in the province of New Brunswick.

00:35:08.960 There's a provincial party there that's called the People's Alliance New Brunswick.

00:35:13.520 They have a strong critical mass of supporters and they have an infrastructure there,

00:35:19.360 infrastructure base within their organization.

00:35:22.720 And there's a well-known former progressive conservative MLA by the name of Jake Stewart,

00:35:29.360 who the conservatives are pinning their hopes on in order to pick up a seat in New Brunswick.

00:35:35.240 i've also been hearing that the people's party of canada is polling quite strongly

00:35:40.200 in the province of new brunswick and that's something we want to watch for if they get into

00:35:44.440 double digits in that you know 10 or higher uh they could deny jake stewart the riding of mayor

00:35:51.800 and that would be devastating for the conservatives because they need to

00:35:55.240 start developing momentum in atlantic canada as they work their way west

00:35:58.520 yeah well it's everything's a battleground when an election's this tight i mean

00:36:07.500 the polls there's been so many uh not too many outliers of course pollsters have been kind of

00:36:13.120 hit and miss when it comes to elections this last few years as well uh you know cell phones have

00:36:16.980 really thrown a mess into their ability to reach a broad spectrum do you feel the the polling is

00:36:22.360 going to hold its own tonight well uh you know what that's uh i guess that's anyone's guess right

00:36:29.260 now so uh the liberals are desperate to uh hold on to their base in atlantic canada it's i mean

00:36:35.100 let's be honest it's a it's a huge amount of seats they have here and it can make the difference

00:36:38.720 between a minority or majority government and the liberals are actually hoping to pick up

00:36:43.420 a couple of those seats so west nova which is currently held by the conservatives they do want

00:36:47.740 to pick that up. And look, if the People's Party of Canada can create a vote split in Miramichi,

00:36:55.140 in all likely that riding will remain Liberal. So there's a lot at stake here in Atlantic Canada,

00:37:00.780 and it could be the difference between a minority or a majority government.

00:37:04.860 Well, they're the first numbers in. So we're looking at 20 Liberals,

00:37:08.160 five Conservative and one NDP at this time. But it's very early, of course,

00:37:12.580 and things can shift as different polls come in. So we'll be looking forward to checking in with

00:37:17.100 you periodically as those come in and those numbers solidify and we'll see what kind of race

00:37:21.020 we got. Great. Thanks for having me on. Looking forward to chatting with you guys later this

00:37:25.160 evening. Excellent. Thanks, Clinton. Okay. So we've changed our lineup while Clinton was in there and

00:37:32.420 we have Josh Andrus in who's been working with Project Confederation. Yes. Okay. So many groups

00:37:39.380 now it's hard to keep track. So we've had Clinton give us kind of an Eastern update. What kind of

00:37:44.600 update or what are we looking for for the West? That's your specialty here.

00:37:48.200 Well, obviously the key question is how well does that PPC vote come in? Early returns from

00:37:55.240 the East, at least that I've seen, indicate that the NDP is coming in under what they were polling

00:38:00.920 at. So if the PPC continues to pull or manages to pull strong numbers from the CPC in the Western

00:38:10.420 Canada, it will potentially create a situation where the Liberals could pick

00:38:15.520 up more seats than we originally anticipated. Again, this is very early in

00:38:19.660 the process. The Maverick Party is another outlier here. They're coming in

00:38:23.560 polling at roughly 2% from what we've seen. If they can poll 5-6%,

00:38:27.660 again, they're polling from the Conservatives, so it might lead to

00:38:32.260 more Liberal seats. That being said, for most of the Western Canadian ridings

00:38:36.420 you're looking at very strong conservative numbers they're bringing in set 80 75 80 percent a lot of

00:38:45.140 these ridings so it'll be really interesting to see how these two parties impact the results and

00:38:50.980 whether or not early returns from the NDP coming in lower impacts the liberals check in with Dave

00:39:00.500 Do you realistically see the PPC picking up any seats in the West?

00:39:06.500 No, but I think from their point of view, if they're pulling enough from the Conservatives

00:39:12.180 that it puts them on the map, I think it's good for them.

00:39:15.720 The big thing is that I think there's a strong protest vote, especially in Western Canada.

00:39:21.680 The Conservatives seem to be using this strategy to try and pull as many votes in Ontario and

00:39:28.500 Quebec, and it's an interesting strategy because it is going to lead to bleeding in

00:39:34.000 Western Canada.

00:39:35.340 We have a very strong right-leaning conservatism brand that's popular in Alberta, especially

00:39:43.120 rural Alberta, Saskatchewan, and places like that.

00:39:45.240 So I think realistically, if there's riding so the PPC comes in second, in a strong second,

00:39:50.900 I think that's a result that they should be very proud of and very happy with.

00:39:54.340 How do you assess the Maverick Party's campaign?

00:39:57.240 in? Personally, I liked a lot of their policies. I didn't see a lot from them. I don't want

00:40:05.920 to be too critical on the air, but it seemed a little lackluster in some areas. But at

00:40:10.900 the same time, I think this really became a COVID election. Western alienation wasn't

00:40:15.240 a topic that really was at the centerpiece of a lot of conversations, whether it be at

00:40:20.300 the coffee shops, the bars, or on live television. So it's one of those things where as we head

00:40:26.880 into getting results from Western Canada,

00:40:29.000 we're still a couple hours away.

00:40:30.140 It'll be interesting to see where they come in.

00:40:31.920 But then again, there is strong undercurrent

00:40:34.380 of Western alienation that has really been

00:40:38.120 on firm display over the last two years in Alberta.

00:40:40.800 So it'll be interesting to see

00:40:42.020 if the Maverick can pull above that 2%,

00:40:44.720 if they can get 10%, 15%, or even finish

00:40:47.440 top three in some of these ridings.

00:40:49.900 I think that's a huge win for them.

00:40:51.200 The Reform Party didn't win any seats

00:40:52.780 their first go-round either.

00:40:54.500 The protest vote sometimes takes

00:40:56.040 a couple of election cycles to manifest itself into something that we can really, well, reform

00:41:01.340 did end up sweeping the West in 93, but it was their second full election campaign, so

00:41:05.560 it took a while.

00:41:06.560 And what's your prediction for the night?

00:41:08.280 I think it'll be a liberal minority, I think 154, 155 seats to 120 for the Conservatives

00:41:16.640 with the 30 to 35 for both the block and the um ndp with the greens maybe pulling one out and i don't

00:41:27.680 i i hate to say it but i don't think the ppc is going to be strong enough to win anything

00:41:32.800 okay well and to segue i'll just respond to one comment or two too is confused perhaps thinking

00:41:36.960 you know that we're claiming western alienation isn't an issue i mean it most certainly is and

00:41:41.120 it's been one for a long time and it's going to be it just hasn't become an election issue in this

00:41:45.600 one. I mean, you know, Jay Hill and the Maverick have been out there, but it's just been overwhelmed

00:41:50.080 by the COVID events, the other things that it just didn't quite hit the docket like it would

00:41:54.800 have typically, but it's not going away by any means. No, definitely not. I mean, it is, it's

00:41:59.600 something that is on the forefront of people's minds, but given the events of the last couple

00:42:03.680 months with the case numbers coming up, with public health officials coming out crying,

00:42:07.920 you know, on CTV news or on global news, and you've got, of course, Joe Vipond out there

00:42:15.200 doing his thing you've essentially created an environment where people are going to be going

00:42:19.680 to the ballot box and the one thing on their mind is going to be do i want to be stuck in my house

00:42:24.000 locked inside for the next four months or do i want to vote for something that really

00:42:33.920 you know isn't the direct issue right now and i think this is going to be the covet election i

00:42:39.040 think that's why we've seen the surge in the ppc it's not the western alienation isn't an issue

00:42:44.000 It's just that's the ballot box question this time around, especially when it comes to that protest vote.

00:42:48.340 I think one of Maverick's biggest challenges is the existence of the PPC.

00:42:52.820 I know that there's a lot of overlapping policy, but it's just one of those things where until those two parties can find a way to work together,

00:42:59.980 it might be challenging for either one of them to break through in much of Canada.

00:43:04.100 Well, it's hard to get the COVID out of your mind when you go to vote when you've got to put a chin diaper on in order to go in and do it.

00:43:10.440 So it is literally in your face when you go to cast your ballot.

00:43:14.120 So you can't help but think about it.

00:43:15.840 You know, I'm just going to break for a second.

00:43:17.680 I mean, something that's been interesting that keeps coming up, though,

00:43:19.640 the big factor in this election that's different is the PPC coming up,

00:43:22.800 perhaps the Mavericks seeing what they do.

00:43:24.600 But what's been interesting is the development's been through alternative media.

00:43:27.500 You know, he's come in under the radar.

00:43:29.280 He hasn't gotten coverage from the conventional media.

00:43:32.120 And just as our own pat on the back to ourselves in the sense that the world is changing.

00:43:35.740 The parties are changing.

00:43:36.660 We can see them come up without coming through the conventional channels.

00:43:39.720 It might be Maverick.

00:43:40.320 It might be others.

00:43:41.780 And I want to thank, you know, the hundreds of people who are tuning in right now

00:43:44.560 and more coming on all the time, our subscribers.

00:43:47.280 The Western Standard is out there.

00:43:48.660 You know, we don't have to have the conventional media anymore.

00:43:51.460 And just to those who are listening, you know, be sure to share this.

00:43:54.780 Share the link to this.

00:43:56.000 Let's get people on here. 0.98

00:43:57.000 Let's get people watching this.

00:43:57.980 We don't have to watch that dirty old CBC cover this, even though we have to pay for it.

00:44:02.320 Share that link.

00:44:03.020 We do think of you as the Rosie Barton of the Western Standard.

00:44:05.880 Well, thank you.

00:44:06.860 I can't wait for Rosie Barton to call the election for the Liberals

00:44:11.700 because I think it's going to be way too early when she does it.

00:44:14.000 She's been stumping pretty hard for them this entire campaign.

00:44:16.140 Oh, yeah, no, it is interesting.

00:44:18.920 I do at least get some dark comedy out of watching her blow kisses at Justin 1.00

00:44:22.060 during any interviews, but that's where our tax dollars go.

00:44:25.620 So, I mean, I just want to thank those who subscribe to The Standard already

00:44:28.340 and, again, just kind of appeal to the other people out there.

00:44:31.160 You know, we've got an election night.

00:44:32.460 We've got millions of Canadians watching,

00:44:34.400 and be sure to contribute and help in and share this link

00:44:38.520 so other people come in and we just keep building this foundation

00:44:41.020 so that we can get direct information to Canadians, Western Canadians

00:44:44.420 through the standard and all that good newsprint.

00:44:47.200 So that's enough patting ourselves on the back there.

00:44:49.500 Dave, have we got some new numbers?

00:44:50.840 Yeah, I can do a bit more of a rundown on Atlantic Canada.

00:44:55.740 Prince Edward Island, solidly liberal.

00:44:58.380 All three seats have gone the grit's way.

00:45:02.120 Moving to Newfoundland and Labrador, Liberals are winning or leading in four seats, Conservatives

00:45:10.300 two, NDP one.

00:45:12.760 Nova Scotia is a race between the Liberals with seven seats, it looks like, Conservatives

00:45:20.980 three and the NDP one.

00:45:23.540 And last but not least, New Brunswick, Conservatives three, the Liberals seven.

00:45:30.440 So add them all up, and which Elections Canada has nicely done for me,

00:45:34.720 it's the Liberals leading or ahead in, elected in 19, Conservatives 8,

00:45:41.400 the NDP 3, which seems to be a fairly significant increase for the Conservatives.

00:45:48.800 And the NDPs also gained two seats out of there, and the Liberals seem to be down quite a bit.

00:45:55.840 Well, I mean, if we can look at the Maritimes as a bellwether,

00:45:59.180 we might see a bit of a trend here.

00:46:00.700 The Liberals are getting nibbled at.

00:46:01.900 I mean, that's kind of a stronger area for them.

00:46:04.880 We know the Conservatives probably won't dominate out there,

00:46:07.080 but if they can pick up some seats, as Clinton was saying,

00:46:09.600 that's going to be quite a significant coup for them in this election.

00:46:14.580 It will, obviously, early days in the vote counting

00:46:17.640 and all the usual, you know, it's not over yet until it's over.

00:46:25.580 No, and it sure is nice to know nowadays.

00:46:27.700 You're probably too young to remember, Josh,

00:46:29.900 but it used to be that you'd have to pick up the phone

00:46:32.140 and phone somebody in the East Coast to get those election results early.

00:46:35.120 It was a criminal act.

00:46:37.120 You were not allowed to find out how anybody voted

00:46:40.540 until your time zone closed its polls.

00:46:43.600 The world has changed, though.

00:46:44.680 Do you think that impacts how people vote nowadays?

00:46:46.840 Do you think people look at some of the...

00:46:48.300 Because that was the fear.

00:46:49.000 They're going to look at these results coming out of the East.

00:46:51.140 In the next two hours, they got left to vote in Alberta,

00:46:53.320 or three hours in BC,

00:46:54.300 and they're going to cast their ballot based on what they saw

00:46:57.360 is a trend happening out there i i'll just ask somebody who never had to deal with that would

00:47:00.560 you think that that'd be a factor i i don't think i don't necessarily think so i think this is one

00:47:05.680 of those elections that most people have had their mind made up for a while there hasn't really been

00:47:10.640 any events well minus the ppc's the purple wave as it's called um but it is interesting given like

00:47:19.760 i mean i've read articles of people standing outside the calgary herald office in 1911 waiting

00:47:24.320 for election results massive crowds back when reciprocity was the issue and it's one of like

00:47:29.920 i think we live in in the information age where information is available at the tip of your

00:47:35.120 fingers wherever you are whereas you know 20 30 years ago even that wasn't the case so the internet

00:47:40.960 has definitely made information much easier to come by and uh but i mean live live live uh

00:47:48.880 live feeds aren't that easy to come by so I'm hoping that maybe we're shifting

00:47:54.660 some decisions here. I know polls close here I think is what is it 7 30 so.

00:48:00.320 Is it 7 30 or 8 o'clock? 7 30 or 8. It's usually been 8.

00:48:05.840 If you haven't voted yet, get down there.

00:48:09.340 So maybe just to catch up because that's something that's gonna be

00:48:12.460 different tonight too. We've got a whole lot of mail-in ballots that we

00:48:15.140 typically didn't have and advanced polling and advanced polling is usually

00:48:19.400 counted the night of the election but it's usually the last ones to come in but

00:48:23.320 they believe the mail-in ballots are gonna take a few days and I think it's

00:48:25.780 just a million they've said several days so you know we could be in theory if

00:48:30.400 it's close several days away from knowing who who wins certainly there'll

00:48:35.240 be some seats that are close enough to require that that mail-in boat so yeah 0.88

00:48:41.300 Yeah, they say Elections Canada, two or three days

00:48:43.840 until they get all those votes counted.

00:48:46.060 And mail-in ballots were way up, way up.

00:48:49.400 Well, I believe we'll have a very good idea by the end of the night

00:48:52.120 where we're sitting, though.

00:48:53.640 So I see our next guest is coming in here.

00:48:55.480 Jonathan Dennis is in the lobby over there.

00:49:00.060 Many Albertans know Jonathan from his time in provincial office.

00:49:03.760 I believe he was our Solicitor General is the role there.

00:49:07.180 Justice Minister.

00:49:07.840 Justice Minister, okay.

00:49:09.200 I knew I had to mail my speeding tickets to somebody with that sort of title or name or

00:49:13.480 something like that. How are you doing tonight, Jonathan? I'm doing well, and listen, if you have

00:49:16.880 more speeding tickets, I can represent you now. That's right. Jane just pays them for now, 0.74

00:49:23.660 but if I get too many, we might have to come to that yet. So we've been kind of hitting everybody

00:49:28.760 with it. You know it's got to come. What are your predictions? Where do you think we're going to

00:49:32.940 head tonight? Give us your ballpark, Jonathan. I'll tell you this. This is probably the closest

00:49:37.400 election in any of our collective lifetimes here. It's too close to call. The one thing

00:49:43.140 I'm going to put my money on is a minority government. Politics is becoming more and 0.79

00:49:46.780 more polarizing. And as we see some of the results from Atlantic Canada, some like really

00:49:51.280 razor thin margins here, it's very certain to have recounts in multiple writings. I am

00:49:59.540 concerned about the increased use of mail-in ballots. They've always been somewhat

00:50:03.600 controversial. My concern always with mail-in ballots is

00:50:07.420 the ultimate secrecy is behind the ballot box

00:50:11.100 where an individual goes in. You don't know exactly who the mail-in ballot's

00:50:15.520 going to. If the person's subject to undue influence, we don't know.

00:50:19.100 The best option is still an X on the piece of paper.

00:50:23.300 Steve, you got any questions for Jonathan while we got him?

00:50:28.300 Jonathan, can you talk about the effect that

00:50:31.280 premier kenny had on this uh election campaign well it's uh i'll tell you this i say this as a

00:50:37.600 uh conservative party federal supporter and a ucp supporter provincially uh the pandemic response

00:50:43.600 has been abysmal i uh the pandemic uh response in the province of alberta has managed to efficiently

00:50:51.360 uh upset uh people on the left right and center i have not met one person who is happy with the

00:50:57.520 pandemic response some people want more restrictions some people want less restrictions

00:51:01.680 but the most important thing is that the it appears that there's a real instability in the

00:51:07.040 whole government as a result of of the pandemic response and it's the instability of any government

00:51:13.200 that paralyzes it and frankly plays into the ndp's hand here um the fact that i see mr kenny who

00:51:20.960 who I've known for many years, listed as a factor by both federal and even the municipal campaign here

00:51:28.520 by candidates on the left as a negative, he's kind of become a lightning rod here.

00:51:33.340 Why do you think the PPC has got a purple wave in Alberta?

00:51:39.280 So the PPC, first off, the PPC is kind of the Maxine Bernier party.

00:51:44.840 And I know he was on here earlier. I've met him a few times.

00:51:47.500 There isn't a constitution in the party.

00:51:49.480 It's really what he goes and dictates, but it is attracting a lot of disaffected Conservatives.

00:51:54.880 The question I always ask myself, are these votes that would not show up at all?

00:52:00.580 Or are these votes that are bleeding off of the Conservatives?

00:52:04.020 I don't think the PPC will elect a single seat tonight, but it remains to be seen if the PPC is actually a vote spoiler and ends up electing Justin Trudeau in some writings, like some of the mainstream media has been predicting.

00:52:17.920 Do you think it's a case that they'll bleed from the Tories, or will they stir the usual non-voters, those who don't normally go and vote?

00:52:29.080 I will take the Abraham Simpson quote from The Simpsons, a little from column A and a little from column B.

00:52:34.640 In Alberta, if they bleed off 5, even 10%, that's still probably enough to elect a full swath of blue candidates,

00:52:42.680 with the exception of Edmund Stratkona, which will likely go back to the NDP.

00:52:46.620 What I'm worried about is that the PPC is strong enough in Ontario.

00:52:50.480 They're likely not strong enough in Quebec.

00:52:52.080 And you see Maxime Bernier showing up in Alberta and not in his own riding of votes,

00:52:57.140 likely knowing that that's a lost cause.

00:52:58.900 If the PPC gets beyond about 5% in Ontario, you may very well see a vote split there

00:53:04.800 and fewer Conservatives elected.

00:53:07.740 Again, it remains to be seen.

00:53:09.100 We're an hour away from the polls closing and I'm waiting with beta breath.

00:53:11.740 okay and uh do you think kenny was deliberately hidden by the federal conservative party they

00:53:19.820 didn't want him around at all and it was only when alberta the the covet crisis uh you know

00:53:26.540 reached its pick that he was he was forced to come out and make some sort of statement well

00:53:32.040 dave you make a very interesting point because if you look at the beginning of aaron o'toole's

00:53:35.980 leadership, which, full disclosure, I did support, was contributing to the campaign.

00:53:41.980 Kenny had endorsed O'Toole, and that was not an issue.

00:53:44.860 But you didn't see him over the last couple of months.

00:53:47.980 So when I look at a politician, talk is cheap.

00:53:50.960 What he or she may say may be fleeting and maybe just a puff.

00:53:54.960 You look at their actions.

00:53:55.780 And the reality is, is that I do think the federal party did see the pandemic response

00:54:01.320 in Alberta as a negative.

00:54:03.040 And the fact that you saw both Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau invoke the pandemic response in Alberta as a negative does tell you that both the Conservative campaign and the Liberal and NDP campaigns felt that the record in this province was a liability.

00:54:23.560 And again, some people want fewer restrictions, some people want more restrictions, but it seems to me that he was kind of behind a rock and a hard place.

00:54:33.300 What's coming out now just doesn't really endear a lot of confidence in anybody.

00:54:39.340 Let's talk about Calgary and Edmonton, Alberta's two big cities.

00:54:44.640 Do you see the Conservatives losing their iron grip in Calgary and seeing more Liberal seats?

00:54:51.960 So my prediction in Alberta is that you will see a complete sweep of the Conservatives with one exception, and that is an Edmonton-Straff corner where NDP MP Heather McPherson, I think, will win with quite significant spread.

00:55:08.500 The NDP really has put a lot of their efforts into Edmonton-Straff corner.

00:55:12.540 An NDP source of mine has told me that they were looking at Edmonton-Griesbach as well.

00:55:16.800 I know that popular city councillor George Chahal is running for the Trudeau Liberals in Calgary's northeast, in Calgary Skyview.

00:55:26.580 My calculus on this is that the local candidate really matters very little in the grand scheme of things.

00:55:32.460 It looks at the demograph of the riding, the leader and the party.

00:55:36.340 And I just think that being a Trudeau liberal in Calgary has such a negative, present and historical connotation that Jag Sohota will win in Calgary Skyview again.

00:55:48.200 Interesting. Corey?

00:55:51.500 Yeah, I guess my question is regarding the Tories' much ballyhooed shift to the left.

00:56:00.660 Do you think that's impacting the purple wave?

00:56:04.840 And do you have any thoughts on that?

00:56:07.680 The reality is that the Conservatives ran a stronger campaign in the beginning.

00:56:13.620 If you look at the average polls, and I'm not talking the websites, but just the average polls towards the end,

00:56:18.340 the Liberals have really caught up.

00:56:20.320 And at the end of the day, I do think ultimately, unfortunately, the edge does go to the Liberals because their vote is more efficient.

00:56:27.960 And Alberta, Saskatchewan, Eastern B.C., you see wide spread for the Conservatives.

00:56:35.120 It is going to be a little lower this time because O'Toole's tried to appeal more to Ontario at the expense of Western Canada.

00:56:42.120 But I still think the Liberal vote is a little more efficient this time around.

00:56:49.380 If Justin Trudeau has a minority, of course, he has the first opportunity under the Constitution to try to form government.

00:56:57.960 the one thing worse to me than a Trudeau majority would be a Trudeau minority propped up by the NDP

00:57:04.780 and just letting you know, this is my wallet. I'm hanging on to it.

00:57:08.960 All right. Well, you had a question for Jonathan?

00:57:12.420 No. Okay. Well, thank you very much for coming in with us tonight, Jonathan.

00:57:15.940 It's going to be a really interesting night to watch.

00:57:20.540 And Corey, I'm coming back at you three hours back from my home, just west of Calgary.

00:57:26.100 Let's go over on how my predictions are.

00:57:32.020 Certainly.

00:57:32.840 Okay, so let's pull up the map, and we will be seeing you in a little while there.

00:57:35.960 Jonathan?

00:57:36.660 See you in three hours.

00:57:37.800 Take care.

00:57:38.120 Great, thanks.

00:57:39.600 All right, we've got a few more results coming in from the Maritimes.

00:57:43.200 I've got a total of 32 seats now counting.

00:57:50.040 Liberals ahead were elected in 23.

00:57:53.440 three Conservatives elected are ahead in eight, the NDP in one.

00:58:00.440 So again, that seems to be a pickup of several seats for the Conservatives.

00:58:09.440 They only had four last election and it looks like they're doubling it to eight.

00:58:15.440 So the Atlantic Canada is starting out not a good evening for the Trudeaus down there. 0.62

00:58:22.440 And it looks like Derek's back in the host chair and bringing in another guest, Derek.

00:58:31.360 Yeah, we're going to wait a second just to bring up Vitor Marciano.

00:58:37.940 Josh, right now I think we're seeing some, yeah, Josh, we're seeing some gains for the

00:58:42.160 Conservatives in Atlantic Canada.

00:58:44.380 I mean, the Atlantic has traditionally been, you know, a typical red Tory area.

00:58:53.320 Is this a sign, do you think, that O'Toole's pivot to the left, pivot to the center, if you will, is succeeding and that we might see replicated across the GTA?

00:59:03.960 Yeah, that's a definite potential opportunity.

00:59:06.280 It worked for the provincial, I think it was the provincial Tories in Nova Scotia with their health care platform at the very beginning of the federal election campaign.

00:59:18.500 That being said, yeah, if it does pull in at the 905, we could be looking at a conservative minority, but we're still early in the process.

00:59:27.080 We'll see how it goes from here.

00:59:29.380 Well, let's bring in Vitor Marciano for his analysis right now.

00:59:34.540 Vitor Marciano was the, I guess, various hats he's worn,

00:59:40.640 but he's essentially been the chief aide to the two major Wild Rose leaders

00:59:45.240 in the history of at least the first party named Wild Rose,

00:59:48.600 Danielle Smith and Brian Jean.

00:59:54.480 Welcome to the show.

00:59:56.360 Thank you for having me, Derek.

00:59:57.400 It's going to be an interesting and historic night.

01:00:00.500 yeah well I appreciate you joining us I mean there's a few people I think who are at least

01:00:06.860 has got a political analysis in Alberta but we're going to get you put your hat on

01:00:10.820 to at least see what we're seeing out of Atlantic Canada right now and try to extrapolate westwards

01:00:17.180 at least to the GTA I'd put the same question to you as I put to Josh Andrus is obviously the

01:00:24.220 conservatives are not winning Atlantic Canada there was no expectation that they would but

01:00:29.240 But they seem to be certainly outperforming 2019.

01:00:33.120 Do you think this is a harbinger of things to come in the GTA with the centre shift?

01:00:40.000 I have to tell you, if I'm a Conservative, if I'm Team Aaron O'Toole, I'm looking at this and feeling pretty good.

01:00:45.860 I mean, it's still very early on.

01:00:48.540 There are margins.

01:00:49.880 Only one of the eight Conservatives, the eight places where the Conservatives are leading in Atlanta, Canada, are they actually winning.

01:00:55.300 But they're leading in seven other ones.

01:00:57.840 and that's noticeably better than 2019 uh it's an indication of good things to come it's it's

01:01:06.240 concerning for the liberals to begin with now a lot of these seats are still really close and

01:01:10.960 lots of things can still change over the course of the evening i do know from having spoken with

01:01:14.980 conservative friends they felt really good about the job they did getting out their early vote in

01:01:19.040 the advanced polls um you know this is a better start to the evening right now than what's

01:01:25.640 happening in 2019. And, you know, it'll be interesting to see what happens when we get into

01:01:31.440 starting to count Quebec and Ontario at the same time, what happened in the 905, whether or not

01:01:36.700 O'Toole's effort to moderate the party to pick up seats in Ontario while risking some seats in

01:01:44.680 Western Canada, whether or not that will be a gamble that was worth playing. It'll also be

01:01:48.600 interesting to watch what happens in Quebec, whether or not the bloc's late surge in this

01:01:54.440 election will take away a bunch of seats from justin trudeau so right now you know justin

01:02:00.020 trudeau's four seats down coming out of atlantic canada from where he was before i have reasons

01:02:05.660 to believe he might lose another seven or eight in quebec the polling in ontario is all over the

01:02:12.060 place so some pollsters have him doing quite well other pollsters have it a mixed bag um

01:02:18.260 this is going to be a fascinating election and uh you know i'm going to call it right now that we

01:02:23.480 won't know who's won the election until late sometime tomorrow, like well past

01:02:29.320 tonight, and that, you know, there's a chance that we won't really know who's

01:02:35.260 going to be the next Prime Minister for maybe even a day or two after that.

01:02:39.620 Well, yeah, I was going to say that winning the election doesn't necessarily

01:02:44.280 mean winning the government. You have to win Parliament, and that, without the

01:02:50.860 risk. I don't want to go down that rabbit hole, although I think Canadians are in a 1.00

01:02:56.740 bad need of a civics lesson on the issue. It certainly is a much better start to the

01:03:03.880 evening than it was for Erin O'Toole than it was for Andrew Scheer. That being said,

01:03:10.100 mail-in ballots and advance polling was, I think, a significantly smaller issue in 2019

01:03:16.300 than it is this election.

01:03:18.860 My expectation is that advanced polling

01:03:21.820 and mail-in ballots will be a smaller issue

01:03:24.540 than it was say in the United States presidential election.

01:03:27.740 That time COVID, I think fear of COVID

01:03:31.080 was probably a lot greater.

01:03:33.240 There was, it was still less understood.

01:03:36.260 Why don't you, what are your thoughts on the impact

01:03:38.960 of what you would expect from mail-in ballots

01:03:42.600 and the advanced polls?

01:03:44.420 Are conservatives counting their chickens before they hatch here with these leads before we've counted those mail-in ballots?

01:03:51.760 These leads are super early.

01:03:53.920 Mail-in ballots are not a huge, huge thing in Atlantic Canada, and there's no reason to believe that there was going to be a big difference.

01:04:02.640 But they're going to be a huge, huge issue when we get to the end of the evening in British Columbia.

01:04:07.700 There are ridings in British Columbia that have over 8,000 potential mail-in ballots.

01:04:12.340 So that means in a lot of the places in British Columbia where you're going to see three-way races or a variety of different two-way races, somebody could have a 2,000, 2,500 vote lead tonight and get a call late tomorrow from Ottawa saying you lost because there's that many ballots to be counted in British Columbia.

01:04:33.700 And you said, you know, we weren't going to have a sort of a Trump style problem.

01:04:37.780 We kind of run that risk of having a Trump style problem because I expect this election is going to be decided by 40 or 50 close ridings.

01:04:46.420 And in those 40 or 50 close ridings tonight, our margin is not going to be anywhere near the number of ballots that are sitting in Ottawa waiting to be counted.

01:04:55.560 And those are going to arrive middle to late tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow evening.

01:05:00.760 and there's just this sense of it's going to break that usual sense of trust and certainty

01:05:06.360 that canadians have about their elections you know we do so many things better than the americans

01:05:10.700 we've got our you know we we count paper and there's my pile is bigger than your pile i won

01:05:15.860 it's not going to go that way tonight and it's going to be really interesting to see what comes

01:05:21.100 that. I'll ask the question about Jason Kenney's effect on the Alberta Tories federally. How do

01:05:34.120 you think it played out? I think Jason Kenney's effect plays out in the sense that he gave a

01:05:41.960 last-minute surge and push to the People's Party, which won't matter at the end of the week, but

01:05:49.440 could matter an awful lot tonight and tomorrow when these votes are being counted. I agree with

01:05:53.880 Jonathan Dennis, who was just on your show, that they're not going to win any seats, but they're

01:05:57.800 going to be the spoiler in lots and lots of places. And I accept that not all of their votes

01:06:01.980 are coming from conservatives, but in a lot of places, enough of their votes are going to come

01:06:09.040 from conservatives to make a difference. And there are five, maybe six seats in Alberta,

01:06:15.780 maybe two or three in Calgary, three in Edmonton,

01:06:23.100 that that could be the difference at the end of the night.

01:06:25.960 So I agree with Jonathan that my base prediction is that it will be, you know,

01:06:31.560 one orange seat and everything else is blue.

01:06:34.360 But if the People's Party have as much of a difference in Edmonton Grease Spa,

01:06:39.200 Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Millwoods, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Centre,

01:06:42.680 calgary skyview we could be seeing the liberals pick up as many as four or five seats in alberta

01:06:50.420 they could have like one eighth of the seats in alberta even though they're immensely unpopular

01:06:54.660 um the ppc is a really weird creature it's a vote for change that runs the risk of actually

01:07:00.200 accentuating the status quo well okay so i suppose my question is uh the ppc is it's funny it's it's

01:07:09.880 It's not particularly likely to win any seats in the election.

01:07:14.380 I think at best, one, the biggest optimist I would say would be two.

01:07:20.600 We don't really know where their votes constitute because we just don't have those historical

01:07:23.640 patterns to really base it on.

01:07:26.100 And I don't think the regional polling, particularly in the West, because elections are not decided

01:07:32.340 here so no one's going to spend the money.

01:07:34.040 Other maybe a few internal polls for the parties, so they know things that maybe we don't, or

01:07:38.280 at least I don't. But it has, for a party that's not likely to win seats, or at least at the very

01:07:44.800 least, not many, it seems to be having an outsized effect on this election now. It's

01:07:51.200 certainly capturing the attention of people on both sides of the divide. I don't intend for

01:07:58.240 this question to be loaded. You always, Vittorio, you know where I'm coming from.

01:08:01.440 Hit me with a loaded question.

01:08:02.380 Yeah. But the PPC vote, if there's enough PPC vote to hand, you know, enough roddings over to the liberals, if you accept the theory of vote splitting, this is, I suppose, an editorialized question, but I appreciate your editorialized answer. Whose fault is it?

01:08:21.640 Oh, it's a combination of faults. And it's the other side to the coin of O'Toole's strategy of moderating the party to chase the 905 is that in the process of moderating the party, he exposes his flank to something and Maxime Bernier took advantage of it.

01:08:38.680 But it's also Maxime's fault. I mean, I'm sorry. The Bosa is the only seat that could win. The final weekend, he was in Calgary and in Saskatoon. It left the impression that he was chasing donations. It left the impression that he was settling scores. It didn't make him a serious player vis-a-vis politics.

01:08:57.040 And that's really frustrating because I actually think Maxime's got some interesting things to contribute to the overall debate of the country.

01:09:04.900 And if he won a seat or two, he'd get to participate in them over the next year and a bit.

01:09:08.840 And if he wins no seats, he won't matter again until the next election rolls up.

01:09:13.640 And maybe if he's lucky, he'll be polling well enough that he can get into the leadership debates.

01:09:19.640 But if he had a seat, he'd be in the next election's leadership debates.

01:09:23.460 He chose not to campaign in his home riding.

01:09:25.240 He chose not to participate in chasing that seat.

01:09:28.220 And, you know, he's going to have to answer for that at some point.

01:09:32.020 In fact, we were speaking to him earlier this evening.

01:09:34.380 He's in Saskatchewan right now for election night.

01:09:37.760 That actually surprised me a bit.

01:09:39.640 But let's go to you, Josh.

01:09:43.240 Yeah, I guess I to start.

01:09:46.960 I've noticed that the Conservatives have taken a very strong shift to the left, even trotting out Brian LaRoune.

01:09:55.240 in the campaign. I was just wondering what your thoughts are on that and whether that is something

01:10:01.600 that Albertans and Westerners should be concerned of moving forward, especially given the rise of

01:10:07.100 the protest vote in PPC and Maverick. If you're a movement conservative like me, or like, frankly,

01:10:13.720 lots of the people on this show and watching this show, it feels like they've lurched to the left.

01:10:18.500 But if you're a normal everyday Canadian and you went and read that platform,

01:10:22.440 It's pretty darn conservative.

01:10:24.060 I have to tell you, I mean, you know, I went and read it carefully in terms of energy issues

01:10:28.240 and some of the things I care about on climate and the response to the just transition of that.

01:10:33.860 And if somehow Aaron O'Toole ends up, you know, calling the shots, he ends up in the PMO after this election,

01:10:40.980 and he does one third of the things that are in that energy platform, it will be really good for Alberta.

01:10:47.240 There are places where I think he has moved the party to the center and chasing Ontario votes.

01:10:55.720 That's just the nature of how this country is built.

01:10:58.100 I mean, in all honesty, there are more conservatives across the country than ever vote conservative because there's a variety of flavors and styles of conservative.

01:11:08.260 And you can never get a leader that can get all of the flavors and style of conservatives into one tent.

01:11:14.040 And that's just the fact of life.

01:11:16.680 I think it's going to be that way. Even when you have a leader as disliked as

01:11:24.960 Justin Trudeau, you can't get all of the conservatives into one tent. So it's going

01:11:30.240 to be complicated. I'm going to poke at the energy platform a bit.

01:11:38.420 the carbon tax. You know I had to go there. And I do not mean to paint you as the O'Toole guy.

01:11:48.180 Your job is not to defend him here. Don't worry. I'm not trying to use you as my foil

01:11:52.000 too much. But how much do you think O'Toole's complete reversal on the carbon tax is going

01:12:02.180 to be a factor here in uh it was it was a factor in it it upset us and it upset a lot of people

01:12:08.720 but it's also a factor this way timo tool told people that if they did that carbon tax thing

01:12:16.240 that climate change would not be a factor in the general election they were in effect

01:12:19.940 taking climate change off of the topics that got that dominated the federal election and he ended

01:12:25.660 up being right one of the shocking things about this election is that we didn't talk very much

01:12:32.100 about climate change. Climate change was not the central focus of the election. If you had asked

01:12:37.780 me a month ago, I would have said, yeah, it's going to be all about climate change all of the

01:12:40.540 time, and O'Toole's going to get beaten up over his carbon plan. That did not happen. And if his

01:12:47.400 policy succeeded in taking climate change off the table, that's pretty successful. It's my least

01:12:54.340 favorite part of his energy policy. It's the least favorite part of my view on his overall policy in

01:13:01.760 terms of energy and climate you know his odd climate plan I don't even know what to call it

01:13:07.160 because frankly I think they screwed up the politics of introducing it but he did make the

01:13:11.640 issue go away from him at election time and if the election had been all about climate change

01:13:15.420 uh he wouldn't be leading in new seats in uh in the maritimes uh that he's leading in so we'll

01:13:23.100 you know Derek when I'm on later on today for various segments we'll have a chance to to measure

01:13:27.360 it more as the pieces play out, but it's, you know, it's too early in the evening to tell

01:13:31.920 how all of this is playing out. Well, thank you, Vitor. We're going to be coming back to you soon.

01:13:37.980 We appreciate your contributions. We'll see you in about an hour from now. Sounds great. Thank you.

01:13:44.420 Well, let's go to Dave for an update on where we're at. We've got a few more seats reporting

01:13:50.160 right now, Dave. Sure. Speaking of energy issues, Derek, Natural Resources Minister

01:13:58.720 Seamus O'Regan has been re-elected in his writing, so that will be of interest to the

01:14:05.840 West. And polls have closed in Saskatchewan. I mean, who knew that they were closing this

01:14:11.580 early, even before some of the eastern time slots? Don't ask me why, because I don't know.

01:14:20.160 In the seat standing at the moment, we have Tories gaining four seats and the Liberals losing three.

01:14:28.980 We've got Liberals, this is just the Maritime Provinces, Liberals sitting at 24, leading and elected, Conservatives 8, leading and elected.

01:14:38.920 And it looks like we're starting to get some Quebec results in now.

01:14:44.020 We've got the Bloc leading and elected in one.

01:14:48.420 again apparently a lot of these results just going through them a lot of these results are

01:14:56.800 very very close and as Vitor just told us could be tomorrow until we hear whether or not or what

01:15:06.160 the final what the final decisions are so I understand that we've got Franco in the waiting

01:15:14.580 room, James?

01:15:38.880 Okay, sorry for that

01:15:40.180 short delay there.

01:15:42.040 I think we've got

01:15:43.080 you've got my pretty face back in the middle here again 1.00

01:15:48.920 sooner we get franco in the better then yeah it'll brighten things up he brings some of that 0.77

01:15:55.580 you know hipster look into things rather than my scowling old butt here so franco tarazano from 0.50

01:16:02.400 the canadian taxpayers federation uh i i can't believe that he's not a you know gray like i am 0.52

01:16:08.180 after tracking the spending and taxing and the promises coming from all of our parties during

01:16:13.740 this campaign. How are you doing tonight, Franco? You know, I'm doing well, man. How are you guys

01:16:17.640 doing? Really good. I mean, the night's young, though, and we'll see how these numbers go as

01:16:22.960 they come in. I guess, you know, we kind of hit every guest with it, and I know it's a tough one.

01:16:28.340 I know you're not a partisan sort, but we get people to throw out a guess and see what do you

01:16:33.600 see happening at the end of tonight? What prediction you got? Oh, man, you know, I don't

01:16:38.380 have that crystal ball with me. It's going to be a tough one. I don't think anyone really knows

01:16:41.860 exactly what's going to happen. But unfortunately, it's going to be bad news for taxpayers in some

01:16:47.460 way here, because really, we've seen every single one of these major parties that have a chance

01:16:52.320 of forming government really ignore that $1 trillion elephant in the room, Corey. And of

01:16:58.080 course, I'm talking about the federal government debt, right? We've seen all parties promise

01:17:02.680 billions and billions of dollars in additional spending but we're still waiting for a credible

01:17:07.400 plan to balance the budget right we have the ndp the liberals they have no idea how they would

01:17:13.080 balance the budget and the conservatives i mean they are talking about balancing the budget within

01:17:17.720 a decade but but even the conservatives are really just paying lip service uh because their plan to

01:17:22.120 balance the budget is not credible uh core uh franco sorry uh we had a feature on the western

01:17:30.120 standard where you and i working on a taxpayer's guide to voting and uh could you could you just

01:17:36.600 briefly review the the financial economic predictions and the debt focus of the the

01:17:42.520 three main parties for us yeah absolutely dave thanks so much uh thanks for much for running

01:17:46.920 that but so essentially what we wanted to do with that guide is not just show each canadian what

01:17:52.040 the parties are saying but also give a little background and first we have to start with the

01:17:55.880 debt you know i mentioned that it was a trillion dollars in debt federally so that breaks down to

01:18:00.520 about thirty thousand dollars that each canadian is on the hook for and if these politicians don't

01:18:05.720 find a way to save some money that has to come from taxpayers one way or another whether it's

01:18:10.040 taxes today taxes plus interest tomorrow or inflation um so now moving on from the debt we

01:18:16.920 also have to talk about the massive amount of spending that is coming from the federal government

01:18:21.000 or I should say massive amount of borrowing even before the pandemic in 2018 the Trudeau

01:18:27.240 government was spending all-time highs in Canada's modern history so what that means is that before

01:18:32.120 the pandemic the Trudeau government was spending more money than the federal government had spent

01:18:38.680 in any single year during World War II which is absolutely mind-boggling and then finally we also

01:18:45.480 put out some information about taxes and even during the pandemic the average canadian family

01:18:51.080 paid about 36 percent of its budget to taxes which is more than what an average canadian family

01:18:57.560 was paying for housing clothing and food combined so if these politicians really

01:19:02.920 care about affordability then they got to take a good hard look in the mirror

01:19:10.120 yeah i guess uh you talked a lot about the the massive spending coming out of the federal

01:19:14.600 government um in alberta here on october the 18th we go to the polls to vote on equalization

01:19:20.760 do you think that this spending given the current political circumstances will leave a heavier mark

01:19:26.920 on alberta and the west in general given the amount of money we send east through equalization

01:19:31.880 yeah that's that's a great question and for that we really have to look at the context

01:19:35.720 right of of how much money for decades alberta taxpayers have contributed to the rest of canada

01:19:41.960 to Ottawa, and of course, by extension, the other provinces. As you gentlemen know, since the 1960s,

01:19:47.980 since the early 1960s, Alberta taxpayers have paid about $600 billion more to Ottawa

01:19:54.860 than Alberta taxpayers have received in federal spending. So if you look at the broad context

01:20:00.300 of Alberta's economy, certainly Albertans tend to pay more than their fair share when it comes

01:20:08.100 to federal taxes. So I think certainly for our Alberta viewers who are watching this, that has

01:20:12.920 to be a huge concern that they are going to be facing a heavier debt burden because of all this

01:20:19.000 spending from the federal government and all of these major parties. It seems that the massive

01:20:24.560 spending promise is coming from all sides. I almost wonder if, you know, a number of them,

01:20:30.600 we can almost count on them just not following through on. I know that's a terrible way for us

01:20:33.740 to have to look at things, but do you think there's some areas where maybe they were just

01:20:38.140 playing lip service and they might kick it down the road later on? Well, I mean, certainly we're

01:20:42.320 not, certainly we hope that we're not going to see this massive amount of government borrowing

01:20:46.280 and, and, and Corey, and, and for all you gentlemen there, you know, when I talk about

01:20:50.060 billions and billions of dollars in additional spending, let me just break it down for you.

01:20:53.640 So the NDP is promising to spend an extra $200 billion. They are so, so divorced from the actual

01:21:02.140 financial reality of planet earth then the liberals they're promising an extra 78 billion

01:21:07.480 dollars in spending the conservatives they're promising about 50 billion dollars in additional

01:21:12.600 spending now the key word there is additional spending because all of that new spending would

01:21:18.220 be on top of the massive amount of spending that was in the last liberal government's budget

01:21:23.180 released only a few months ago and just remember when that budget was released back in april i

01:21:28.560 mean we're all scratching our head wondering how we can afford it I mean the truth of the matter is

01:21:33.420 we couldn't afford the last Liberal government's budget we certainly can't afford all of these

01:21:38.340 massive spending promises on top of it and I just want to make one more point clear just to really

01:21:43.520 illustrate the massive spending in the last budget remember the Trudeau government's last

01:21:48.220 budget would be nearly doubling the pre-pandemic debt in just six years yeah one prize they've

01:21:56.320 been looking at we're hearing rumors about quite often and the liberals deny it but we keep seeing

01:22:00.060 these warning signals. There's a big chunk of capital in Canada called home equity and there's

01:22:05.920 a lot of rumor that they might be considering taxing our primary residences. Has the Taxpayers

01:22:10.700 Federation been watching that I imagine? Oh absolutely this is a huge issue. It's a huge

01:22:15.180 issue for Canadians right. Right now there is no home equity tax which is fantastic news

01:22:20.480 because a home equity tax would just be so much pain for so many Canadians. I mean think about

01:22:25.260 the Canadians who want to retire well they rely on the proceeds of the sale of their home to fund

01:22:31.080 their golden years or even think about the young family who wants to sell their starter home to be

01:22:36.960 able to purchase a bigger family size home in a nice neighborhood well they too rely on the sale

01:22:42.420 of their home to be able to fund that and a home equity tax would take a huge chunk of the proceeds

01:22:47.460 away from Canadian families now one thing that we have to point out is that the Liberals are

01:22:52.740 absolutely sniffing around our homes in their platform they have a so-called anti-flipping tax

01:22:59.380 and what that means is that if you sell your home before the liberals think you should then they'll

01:23:04.740 send the tax men after you and we have to also look at some other context here we know that the

01:23:09.780 federal government is spending 250 000 of our tax dollars studying home taxes and also in 2016

01:23:17.380 Ottawa put in a requirement that we have to report the sale of our home with the CRA with

01:23:22.640 the tax man. Well, I got a question for the CRA and I got a question for the federal government.

01:23:26.720 If the tax man isn't going to come after us with a home equity tax, then why do we have to report

01:23:31.480 the sale of our home with the CRA? Well, that is that scary thing. You know,

01:23:36.180 they're doing it incrementally. They're setting up the system. They're setting up the means to take

01:23:39.640 it. We're all sliding in. We're all registering. And boy, it sure makes it easy just to kind of

01:23:45.040 ramp it up or say we'll just reduce the turnover time that you're allowed you know when you're

01:23:49.540 selling a house or I should just say extend it one way or another they're going to come after it

01:23:53.420 and Corey can I just jump in real quick I mean look we saw the Trudeau government we saw Trudeau

01:23:58.120 during the English leaders debate uh say that he wasn't going to put a home equity tax we've seen

01:24:03.460 other liberal candidates go to social media say hey they're not going to put in a home equity tax

01:24:07.840 but why should Canadians believe them if they want us to believe them that they're not going

01:24:12.000 hammer us with a home equity tax and they have to remove the reporting requirement with the CRA.

01:24:17.440 And let's not forget about the Liberals track record here. Hey, remember before that last

01:24:21.520 federal election, they said that they had no intention of raising the carbon tax beyond $50

01:24:26.640 per ton. Well, what happened last Christmas? Well, Trudeau hammered us with the announcement that

01:24:31.120 they're going to be raising the carbon tax to $170 per ton, right? So I think there is every reason

01:24:37.360 why taxpayers should be skeptical and let's just transition to the conservatives really quick now

01:24:42.560 in their platform the conservatives explicitly reject a home equity tax now that's good but

01:24:48.880 again taxpayers need to be skeptical because hey even i'm old enough to remember uh erin o'toole

01:24:54.480 promising that he would scrap carbon taxes when he was running for leader of the conservative party

01:24:59.520 and what did he do only a few months ago well he flip-flopped on that and now is going to hammer

01:25:04.000 Canadians with a carbon tax of his own. So if these politicians want us to trust them,

01:25:09.920 they need to remove that reporting requirement. Franco, let's talk a minute about inflation

01:25:15.820 and how that's going to affect the country's prices. I had to remortgage my own house on

01:25:21.180 the weekend. I think I got a good rate, but it worries me, especially that 4.1 figure

01:25:26.440 that came out last week. What do you see inflation doing and how will it affect the debt?

01:25:33.840 Well, Dave, first, I just want to say, look, no economist has a crystal ball.

01:25:38.620 So nobody really knows what's going to happen when it comes to inflation.

01:25:42.180 But I am worried as well.

01:25:43.780 And we have to understand that when we're talking about the cost of living, we have to talk about how the government drives up that cost of living.

01:25:50.800 Right. We already talked about how in 20, even during the pandemic, the average Canadian paid more to taxes than on housing, food and clothing combined.

01:25:59.780 But another thing that we have to talk about is the inflation tax.

01:26:02.940 And essentially what that means is when the government prints more dollars, it means your

01:26:07.540 dollars buy less.

01:26:08.840 And the government's printing press has been on overdrive during the pandemic.

01:26:13.820 Since February 2020, the Bank of Canada has printed about $370 billion.

01:26:20.320 That's a 300% growth in the bank's assets, which is significantly more than what we saw

01:26:26.300 in the recession of the 80s and the 90s and in 2008-09.

01:26:30.720 To put that into context, the 300% growth is similar as to what we saw in the growth of banks of Canada's assets during the entire six years of World War II.

01:26:43.120 So, Dave, with that amount of money printing, it's no surprise to see prices going up.

01:26:50.420 You must be tossing and turning at night with all those figures bouncing around in your head.

01:26:56.200 Let me give you another figure.

01:26:58.740 sorry to cut you off there but you know we heard uh 4.1 increase in consumer prices over the year

01:27:04.660 right we saw that from stats canada but even that downplays just how prices have been continually

01:27:10.740 to march upwards you know over the last two decades we have seen consumer prices increase by 40 percent

01:27:20.740 i certainly haven't gotten a 40 percent raise in those years

01:27:24.580 well there it is right when the government prints more dollars your dollars buy less

01:27:28.740 So you're a good old cowboy, Calgary kid, Franco.

01:27:32.780 You just moved to Ottawa with your promotion.

01:27:36.280 How are you finding it?

01:27:37.540 Did your intelligence shrink as soon as you entered city limits?

01:27:42.080 Well, you know, I'm certainly having a good time.

01:27:45.400 There's a lot of waste, government waste here in Ottawa,

01:27:48.140 so I'm sure I'm going to have my hands full.

01:27:50.880 Yeah, Ottawa's a great city.

01:27:52.200 You'll enjoy it.

01:27:54.240 Yeah.

01:27:55.860 Yeah, actually, I did have one question

01:27:57.460 well conservative platform they had a gst holiday in december as well as a massive program for

01:28:06.020 front for the what is it restaurant tax credit i think i can't remember what exactly what it was

01:28:13.140 but do you think that this is going to have any impact on cost of living or any or anything like

01:28:18.900 that yeah that's a good question so what we saw from the conservative platform is that month-long

01:28:24.100 GST holiday, I believe for the month of December. And we saw a whole raft of these niche boutique

01:28:30.820 style tax credits. Now, I don't want to put down any policy that keeps more money in Canadians

01:28:37.080 pockets, but that is not the approach that we would have liked to see. I mean, what Canadians 0.99

01:28:41.240 need is broad-based tax relief. But instead, we're not seeing that from the Conservatives.

01:28:47.100 We're not seeing broad-based income tax, business tax, sales tax relief. We're not seeing the broad

01:28:52.020 ones. And so the analogy that I like to put forward is right now, especially Canadians are

01:28:59.160 hungry for relief. We need a big meal of steak and potatoes. And what the Conservatives are giving us

01:29:03.880 on tax relief is like bar pretzels. Great. Well, thanks for checking in with us, Franco. We'll all

01:29:10.360 be glued to our screens. The results haven't changed too much in the short time. We'll talk

01:29:14.640 to you a little later tonight and see how everything's lining up in the taxpayer front.

01:29:18.300 All right. Sounds good, gents. We'll talk later.

01:29:21.500 Great. Thank you.

01:29:22.660 So the Atlantic provinces, you know, the numbers haven't changed too much.

01:29:27.120 It's interesting the NDP seem to be shut out for the time.

01:29:29.800 Yes, a drop of one seat for them.

01:29:32.920 Yeah. So we've got Clinton DeVoe on deck there again.

01:29:36.760 Perhaps he can give us an update, some interesting numbers in New Brunswick and where things are sitting out there.

01:29:41.500 Hey, Clinton. 0.96

01:29:42.840 Well, there's some positive news and some potential negative news.

01:29:47.860 if you're a Conservative Party supporter.

01:29:50.320 So the positive news is that the party is currently leading

01:29:55.300 in a number of ridings in Atlantic Canada.

01:29:57.440 So that's a great sign.

01:29:59.740 I do see some potential problems and some fault lines

01:30:02.560 that could really develop in Ontario and Western Canada.

01:30:06.660 So the People's Party of Canada is not really a factor in Atlantic Canada.

01:30:12.600 You know, in the Atlantic provinces, people are generally glued to tradition

01:30:15.880 and they don't generally move to third parties or fringe parties.

01:30:20.700 What I will say, however, is that in New Brunswick right now,

01:30:23.960 the PPC is polling at almost 8%.

01:30:26.540 And that's a problem because provinces like Ontario and Western Canada

01:30:32.520 historically have been more open to voting for third parties

01:30:37.360 and those kinds of things.

01:30:39.800 And look, I think 7.8% in New Brunswick could become a real problem

01:30:45.440 in the prairies in Ontario, and that's something that Conservative Party supporters are going to

01:30:50.660 need to follow very closely, especially if they want to win, because they need that PPC vote

01:30:56.400 to collapse in Ontario and the West. Is that PPC vote in the Maritimes

01:31:07.080 going to cost the Tories any riding, or are they just too inconsequential at the moment?

01:31:14.680 It's actually potentially going to cause them a problem in the riding of St. John.

01:31:18.820 So there's a popular Liberal member of Parliament, Wayne Long,

01:31:22.660 who's been known from time to time to stray from the Liberal Party

01:31:26.040 and sort of be known as a bit of an independent.

01:31:29.020 And the last time I checked, he was leading.

01:31:32.040 And there is a fair amount of PPC strength in the Ross-Ace St. John area.

01:31:36.240 That's southern New Brunswick.

01:31:38.480 And then there's a couple of other ridings that we'd want to watch carefully

01:31:43.500 The other one where there's a fair amount of PPC strength is in the riding of Miramichi.

01:31:48.860 And that could be a potential problem in New Brunswick.

01:31:54.060 So, you know, the conservatives are having a good night so far compared to 2019,

01:32:01.260 where they've almost doubled their seat count in the early counting of the polls now that it's still early in the night.

01:32:07.840 but I am concerned about that 7.8% number

01:32:12.320 because that could really throw a wrench

01:32:14.300 as this night progresses

01:32:16.040 well I know something we found

01:32:19.020 I mean a lot of people presuming all of the votes

01:32:20.920 the PPC are drawing are coming directly

01:32:22.940 from the Conservative Party of Canada

01:32:24.980 and I would say it's predominantly coming from them

01:32:27.740 I think we can say that

01:32:28.980 but there have been some numbers coming from

01:32:30.780 like the green collapse actually contributed to a degree

01:32:33.440 to the PPC

01:32:35.340 because I mean there's some people who are very opposed

01:32:37.680 to conventional medicine. They gravitated to the Greens. And the PPC has also engaged a lot of

01:32:44.060 people who didn't vote, period, but they got quite stirred up again and got restrictions,

01:32:48.120 vaccinations. So I know everybody's going to be chewing into this probably for months to come

01:32:52.320 later on, but it'll be kind of impossible to measure just exactly how many were coming out

01:32:58.760 of the Conservatives and how many were never the Conservatives' votes to begin with.

01:33:02.280 Well, I mean, there's a fair amount of polling data that's occurred in the last 48 hours from

01:33:06.540 people like Main Street Research and a few others that have pointed out that somewhere in the

01:33:12.200 vicinity of three quarters of the PPC support are disaffected conservatives or people who have

01:33:19.680 voted conservative at one time or another. And there is that remaining quarter that obviously

01:33:26.180 has picked up support from a collapsed green vote, maybe a disaffected Liberal Party supporter,

01:33:34.160 that kind of thing but let's not kid ourselves if they get into that 10 15 20 25 of the vote

01:33:42.320 in a bunch of ridings in ontario and western canada a significant portion of that would

01:33:47.360 be what we would traditionally classify as conservative party supporters

01:33:51.360 and i've had an opportunity tonight to talk to some of the folks uh in party headquarters

01:33:56.720 And they've indicated that, you know, when they call voters to get out the vote over the last few days, that a significant number of CPC supporters had indicated to them that they were moving their vote over to the PPC.

01:34:16.540 So this could be a real problem.

01:34:19.480 So I just wanted to bring that to your attention that not all is well in New Brunswick.

01:34:23.460 there is some positives and there's some positives coming out of atlantic canada but like i say there's

01:34:29.140 some some fault lines that we should be monitoring carefully just a bit of breaking news out of

01:34:35.700 newfoundland cp is projecting a long time liberal mp scott sims has gone down to defeat to the

01:34:44.580 tory candidate clifford small so a tory winning a seat in newfoundland that's a that's a tremendous

01:34:52.420 win in newfoundland that's one i've been watching carefully that no one really predicted would

01:34:56.420 happen uh and that's not a knock against the conservative candidate the conservative team

01:35:01.380 on the ground there was very well organized uh and they had a great get out the vote and it is

01:35:06.740 a bit of a surprise because it is a it's a well-known liberal member of parliament that uh

01:35:12.500 you know that's that's respected and so clearly uh the folks in that riding decided that it was

01:35:18.260 time for change so these are the kinds of things that the conservatives need to do uh as we move

01:35:23.780 more west uh throughout the province of quebec um you know stephen harper used to call it his blue

01:35:29.460 arrow that you know that used to sort of cut through the heart of quebec and come right out to

01:35:34.900 uh to riviel delou you know mary dumal's old stomping grounds so there is a lot of potential

01:35:41.620 upside but like i said we we want to monitor some of these fault lines with the ppc which

01:35:47.780 could lead to some major problems as the night progresses yeah well we're seeing some liberal

01:35:53.140 weakness and i mean they are a campaign machine and they definitely lost some steam as this thing

01:35:57.700 got going we've seen that coast to coast maybe i'll kind of go around a bit and talk to josh

01:36:01.300 though like a big issue of all things that came up was the early election call people saying why

01:36:06.020 did we call election we didn't need an election and the liberals never really in my view solidified

01:36:11.380 the need for an election and i think that has damaged their brand to a degree people just were

01:36:16.500 happy with having to go to the polls without seeing a good reason for it particularly when

01:36:19.540 we're such a crisis do you think that impacted the votes in the west uh josh you mean these

01:36:25.140 no i'm talking last actually we're here together i'm looking at a whole panel right now

01:36:28.820 uh no yes and no um i do think that it seemed a little bit unnecessary obviously with the

01:36:35.780 afghanistan story floating in the wind wind there as we call the election but as time went on it

01:36:45.300 It certainly did impact things because it was an issue that Trudeau couldn't really

01:36:49.580 speak to and it was an issue that kept coming up, it was a successful attack, but I think

01:36:56.200 out west most people had their minds made up that they weren't going to vote for Trudeau

01:37:02.180 anyways, so how much of an impact it had out here, especially on the prairies, I don't

01:37:08.880 think it had a huge impact just because trudeau has is historically unpopular out here yeah do

01:37:16.840 mind if i jump in there just for a quick second of course yeah so look i think it's important

01:37:22.700 not to sort of dismiss those pockets of liberal party strength in western canada and let's not

01:37:28.720 kid ourselves there's a lot of liberal party strength in western canada we go to places like

01:37:33.040 british columbia we go to places like the greater winnipeg area and an election that could potentially

01:37:38.140 come down to a minority government where both parties are almost the same percentage of popular

01:37:43.800 vote. You know, one or two or three ridings in the prairies and a handful of ridings in Atlantic

01:37:51.820 Canada could mean the difference from being in opposition to sitting at the seat of power.

01:37:57.920 So I do think it's important to recognize that there are some pockets that, you know,

01:38:03.220 the conservatives need to pick off and i do think the liberal party brand itself is actually still

01:38:09.220 a strong brand i think uh mr trudeau actually is a drag on that brand and i think the the trudeau

01:38:17.460 of 2015 you know mr sunny ways and all of that kind of thing you know that that guy doesn't

01:38:23.940 exist today and uh and i think that's one of the reasons why the conservatives have been able to

01:38:30.260 sort of tighten up this election a little bit yeah justin trudeau has definitely been on edge

01:38:35.140 this time around like this was a uh uh crabby or thinner skinned uh trudeau i think if you were

01:38:41.380 going to say anything about him like we saw some slips in this campaign yeah maybe he saw the

01:38:46.500 writing on the wall you know the closer to the end of the campaign uh clinton if uh if trudeau

01:38:53.700 does win a minority is that enough for him to stay on as party leader or will the internal knives come

01:38:59.620 mode well uh geez i look i'm a believer that um that the liberals in a minority government

01:39:10.100 situation are going to come out on top because my feeling is is that they're going to reach out to

01:39:15.700 the new democrats and they're going to say pick whatever cabinet positions you want and we are

01:39:20.580 going to form a government uh i think for the conservatives it's it's all or nothing so they

01:39:26.340 got to win a majority tonight and as much as we sort of want them to win a minority government

01:39:31.700 so we can say we got a moral victory uh the reality is is that they're probably never going

01:39:37.220 to get to the seat of power with a minority government because the liberals uh along with

01:39:42.260 the new democrats will go to the governor general and they'll say look we have enough uh combined

01:39:48.580 support in the house uh in order to maintain a government and i have a hard time believing

01:39:53.780 that Jagmeet Singh is prepared to form

01:39:57.020 any sort of coalition with the Conservatives.

01:40:01.380 And well, further to kind of what Dave was talking about

01:40:03.700 is almost what each leader would consider a victory.

01:40:06.480 I mean, I think unless they take a catastrophic loss,

01:40:10.540 O'Toole is probably going to get two kicks at this cat.

01:40:12.980 I mean, he can come in as a, you know,

01:40:14.500 he didn't invoke this election.

01:40:16.260 He didn't ask for it.

01:40:17.620 He didn't put us into it.

01:40:18.740 So they can say this was his formative one,

01:40:20.860 even if it's a stalemate

01:40:21.720 and he's still in a in a opposition position. Trudeau, on the other hand, is in a bit more

01:40:26.600 tenuous position. I mean, that'll be two attempts at this now where he's led to a minority and the

01:40:32.440 powers that be within the Liberal Party or some of the people with ambition might not be as

01:40:37.120 supportive of him and thinking, do we want to give him a third time to get a third minority?

01:40:41.160 Well, look, I'll go a step further and say, depending what the results are tonight,

01:40:45.400 we might see four, three of five, three of six national political party leaders replaced.

01:40:54.680 So let's keep in mind a few things.

01:40:56.100 So Mr. Bernier, he lost the riding of the BOS in 2019.

01:41:00.180 He then ran in a by-election in Ontario in 2020, and I think he got maybe two, three hundred votes.

01:41:08.080 And it's pretty clear to me that he's probably not expecting the win in the BOS tonight,

01:41:13.240 because instead of being in the BOS, he's in Saskatchewan.

01:41:16.680 So that's a pretty strong indication that he has no plans on winning in the BOS.

01:41:21.780 So after losing three consecutive elections, you have to wonder whether you can hang on.

01:41:27.360 As far as Mr. O'Toole goes, look, I think he needs to do two things.

01:41:32.040 The first one is he needs to do better than Andrew Scheer did in 2019,

01:41:37.200 and that means winning more seats.

01:41:39.460 And I think the other goal is for him to finish the night with more popular support.

01:41:44.980 I think if he finishes with less than 34% when the night is said and done and fewer seats,

01:41:51.080 I have a hard time believing he's going to hang on.

01:41:53.020 I think that there'll be a lot of conservatives that will be calling for him to step down, in fact.

01:42:01.700 And I also think for Mr. Trudeau, if he has a reduced minority,

01:42:06.580 We may also see the knives come out for him.

01:42:10.440 The only difference in Mr. Trudeau's case is that the old Liberal Party that we grew up with and that we remember, you know, the party of Jean Chrétien and all that kind of thing, that party really doesn't exist anymore.

01:42:22.200 It's essentially become a cult of personality around Justin Trudeau.

01:42:26.340 And so he because of that, he might be able to hang on, especially if he can form a coalition with the New Democrats and bring them to the cabinet table.

01:42:35.000 That might be enough to satisfy Liberals.

01:42:38.420 Oh, and Glassman, I just wanted to hear you.

01:42:39.920 This isn't the Trudeau that it was six or eight years ago, too.

01:42:42.580 I mean, he's kind of evolving, but is it evolving into something that people can really gather around?

01:42:47.820 Do you think, Josh, you know, as a younger person, perhaps?

01:42:51.080 I don't think so.

01:42:52.800 I mean, there was obviously a certain degree of celebrity around him six years ago.

01:42:58.540 But right now, I think the younger people are starting to look at the cost of living going up

01:43:04.500 and looking at six years of a Trudeau government in which taxes have gone up,

01:43:09.400 interest rates have stayed low, a housing crisis that's continued to be a major player.

01:43:15.680 We've seen Jagmeet Singh and the NDP definitely swing to try and get the younger voters on board.

01:43:22.740 They're very robustly active on TikTok and other social media sources like that.

01:43:30.400 So I don't necessarily, I think it's wearing off.

01:43:32.980 The question is whether or not it's enough to get those young people to go vote for another party,

01:43:40.020 whether the Conservatives have put anything on the table that might make them a viable option.

01:43:43.380 The Greens appear to be imploding and have been for a while.

01:43:46.720 So it'll be very interesting to see what the demographic breakdown is at the end of the day.

01:43:52.740 I did have a question for you, Clinton, about the Bloc and what your thoughts were on François Blanchet's performance over the last 36 days or so.

01:44:03.260 Yeah, so the Bloc Québécois are, look, they're a real thorn in the side of both the Conservatives and the Liberals.

01:44:13.420 And that's really because, look, the Liberals generally have a lot of voter support in urban Quebec.

01:44:20.280 and the Conservatives tend to be in rural Quebec and sort of splitting that vote with the bloc.

01:44:28.400 Mr. Blanchet, look, one of the big problems with how our parliament is designed is that you have

01:44:37.080 a provincial government in Quebec that essentially passes what everyone recognizes as a discriminatory

01:44:43.600 law with Bill 21. And let's remember, this is a province whose democratically elected premier

01:44:49.260 stood up on the October 30th, 1995 referendum and blamed the referendum loss on ethnic people.

01:44:58.340 So, you know, the Liberals and the Conservatives, unfortunately, when it comes to the political

01:45:05.520 dynamics in Quebec, really refuse to stand up for religious minority rights, ethnic minority 1.00

01:45:12.820 rights, English-speaking minority rights. It's really, it's shameful. And the fact that the 1.00

01:45:18.780 Bloc leader was able to organize, you know, media sources in Quebec to attack the various political

01:45:29.780 party leaders and the moderator from the English debate. It was really sad and pathetic, I think. 0.97

01:45:36.920 And what was even worse was watching Jagmeet Singh, Aaron O'Toole, and Justin Trudeau sort of all get 0.95

01:45:45.340 together and kind of put out a joint statement saying they apologize for the behavior of the

01:45:50.320 moderator for asking legitimate questions, legitimate tough questions that I think,

01:45:56.800 you know, Anglophone minorities in Quebec would like someone to defend them. I think religious

01:46:03.080 minorities in Quebec would like someone to defend them. And unfortunately, all of our mainstream

01:46:09.280 party leaders are prepared to sell out all of those people in order to curry the votes of

01:46:14.840 block Quebecois supporters. 0.81

01:46:19.680 Absolutely ridiculous where you took the top three.

01:46:24.420 I mean, it's not, I don't like the precedent being set to have participants in a debate

01:46:29.320 telling the moderators what issues they're allowed to dip into and what they're not.

01:46:33.720 Bill 21 in Quebec, for those not familiar with it, yeah, it's the one that will block

01:46:37.960 people, religious minorities from showing any displays in the civil service, you know,

01:46:42.740 judges, police officers. You can't wear a turban or a crucifix or a kippah. I mean, it's the

01:46:50.240 hypocrisy when we had all of these leaders declaring Canada as being systemically racist.

01:46:55.140 I mean, we saw Stockwell Day cancelled for life for just daring to say that we weren't.

01:46:59.300 And then when we have a bill that really actually personifies systemic discrimination,

01:47:04.900 they aren't even allowed to talk about it. Well, what's even more troubling, and by the way,

01:47:09.280 I'm not a supporter of Bill 21 and some of that legislation that goes on in Quebec.

01:47:15.300 But if any other province in Canada were to pass similar legislation to that,

01:47:19.820 you can be certain that the entire parliamentary press gallery would rightfully so point out how terrible that is.

01:47:28.820 But for whatever reason, most of the media in Canada,

01:47:34.280 Most of our political leaders are prepared to look the other way because they want those 78 seats, because those 78 seats can help you form a majority government.

01:47:47.060 And just to circle this back to what I was saying earlier about leaders that could potentially be replaced tonight.

01:47:54.160 Look, I realize a lot of the Western Standard audience is not necessarily a big fan of the Green Party.

01:47:59.720 But I do think that's an important thing to remember as well,

01:48:02.660 that Anna Mae Paul, I believe her political career is coming to an end tonight. 0.98

01:48:06.480 I mean, this was a party who you mentioned Stockwell Day.

01:48:10.040 The closest treatment I can think of of another politician in Canada

01:48:16.760 who experienced what Anna Mae Paul experienced was probably Stockwell Day.

01:48:22.420 So, you know, you had a party that threatened to suspend her membership,

01:48:25.940 that threatened to remove her as leader of the party. 0.63

01:48:28.880 And essentially, the Green Party went from being a national party to essentially running a series of disjointed, independent candidates across the country with no real sort of oversight from a national campaign.

01:48:43.040 So the Green Party's collapsed completely.

01:48:45.460 And I also think that could benefit the Liberals tremendously as this night drags on.

01:48:50.940 Absolutely.

01:48:52.260 I mean, and that was unanticipated just from the crazed, I would almost say, infighting going on.

01:48:56.660 I mean, they basically defunded their own leader.

01:48:58.460 left her stuck in her own riding and we'll see what's left at the end. 1.00

01:49:04.920 But the Greens do have a longstanding brand.

01:49:06.760 I mean, I think they're hurting, but they'll rebuild and eventually be around for what they are.

01:49:11.660 So maybe I'll let you go for a bit, Clinton, and we'll come back to you a little later tonight

01:49:15.840 as some more results come in.

01:49:16.940 It's been a while since we've had a good update there.

01:49:19.400 Great. Thanks very much.

01:49:20.620 Looking forward to chatting with you later.

01:49:22.120 Enjoy the night, folks.

01:49:23.360 Right on. Thanks, Clinton.

01:49:24.260 We'll see you in a bit.

01:49:24.740 so i have another face on the the front of the crowd here now we've got jeff calloway

01:49:32.820 uh lined up with us how you doing tonight jeff good thanks for having me good so like everybody

01:49:38.820 else we're hitting well it's going to be a bit of an interesting night as we see results pour in

01:49:45.460 from across the the country um obviously we've seen the rise of the the people's party in

01:49:51.620 in Western Canada but also so we'll have to see if that actually gets some strength reflected

01:49:56.100 and Maxime Bernier can actually win his seat um but as it's been interesting to watch a lot of

01:50:01.540 these polls we've seen some of the decline in the in the Green Party they obviously had a lot

01:50:05.060 of momentum going into the last election that looks like that's been been lost somewhat uh

01:50:09.940 after the last uh federal election at least from a Western Canadian perspective we saw a lot of the

01:50:14.740 rise in the Wexit movement and as a result of Trudeau's Trudeau's victory and I think some

01:50:19.620 Some we're hoping to see perhaps a little more momentum for the Maverick Party in Western Canada.

01:50:25.680 So that'll be an interesting thing I'm going to keep my eye on tonight.

01:50:29.940 And looking at the Conservative Party and the positioning of leader Aaron O'Toole

01:50:37.720 and how he's moved the Conservative Party a little more to the centre, I would say,

01:50:42.240 relative to what Andrew Scheer was doing.

01:50:45.300 We'll have to see if that's going to end up paying off in additional votes.

01:50:48.540 potentially at the expense of voters on the right side

01:50:52.580 or base part of the party.

01:50:56.160 So who's winning?

01:50:58.480 You know, I think there's a lot of people in this election

01:51:03.160 that were polled, were asked.

01:51:06.940 I think the pundits are sort of expecting kind of

01:51:10.740 probably Trudeau to pull it out.

01:51:14.220 But this has the feeling of a lot of people

01:51:17.960 maybe going into the ballot box and voting a little bit differently this time.

01:51:23.820 Just talking to people around the province, it has that sort of a feel.

01:51:29.060 Now, we'll see how that gets reflected across the country.

01:51:32.020 I think there was obviously a desire from the Conservative campaign to be an election more focused on change

01:51:39.840 versus status quo, which is, I think, what Trudeau was looking for.

01:51:45.920 And, you know, I think there's little drips and drabs of events that will perhaps sway

01:51:54.740 a few people to change their votes from last time.

01:51:58.080 One of the things that I think was a huge issue, at the beginning of the campaign at

01:52:01.740 least, was our government's response to events in Afghanistan.

01:52:06.160 That's not necessarily how people are going to make their decision, because I think as

01:52:11.620 the election campaign really wore on, other than all of the old standard attacks that

01:52:19.860 we've seen for many elections.

01:52:23.860 Things that were really hitting people in the pocketbook, cost of living, cost of their

01:52:28.680 utility bill, just an ability to get by, we're going into another fourth wave, are people

01:52:34.340 going to have to go on, is there a CERB coming back to help defray this fourth wave that

01:52:41.280 we're in right now, are those going to be issues that ultimately sway people in either

01:52:47.360 wanting bigger government handouts, which I think NDP leader Jagmeet Singh had no qualms

01:52:53.220 about running around and promising everyone under the sun some extra money, or is it going

01:52:59.180 to be reflected in people kind of going to the Conservative Party saying, you know, we've

01:53:04.660 got to get our fiscal house a little bit more in order, we've got to get people back to

01:53:09.040 word get an economy functioning again get back to a little bit more of a normal operating society

01:53:15.760 while recognizing the fact that COVID is going to be with us with us for a long time to come.

01:53:21.040 Do you think western issues got a fair play in the election?

01:53:25.040 No no I think about the only thing we well I mean I'm racking my brain a little bit here

01:53:32.880 but in terms of western issues getting play in the federal election but the only thing that I

01:53:38.960 can really think of was some of the news about how Erin O'Toole flip-flopped on his gun promise.

01:53:45.840 I mean, that's something that's more near and dear to the hearts of Westerners. Obviously,

01:53:50.960 there was a little bit of talk about pipelines, but not very much. The only other thing that we

01:53:55.840 saw was promises from Trudeau and the NDP to get rid of these mythical subsidies for the oil and

01:54:04.800 gas sector, which isn't the case at all. So, if there was any play for Western issues,

01:54:12.960 it sure as heck wasn't in our favor as Westerners. I think the Saskatchewan platform mentioned

01:54:21.520 Saskatchewan once, the NDP platform mentioned Saskatchewan once and didn't mention Alberta at

01:54:27.280 Yeah.

01:54:28.280 So I guess we know where we stand with the MVP anyways.

01:54:32.280 Yeah, and yeah, this election was really, and we actually saw this in the position of

01:54:40.480 the Conservative Party going more to the moderate, trying to appeal to the GTA area, some of

01:54:46.380 those softer seats, trying to flip them.

01:54:49.060 And I mean, it was a clear strategic move to position away from the sheer campaign strategy

01:54:54.480 of, you know, running up the score in ridings where they were going to win, sticking more

01:54:59.140 into a more true conservative base type of message, but at the expense maybe of winning

01:55:05.020 some more of those really close flip seats in Ontario.

01:55:09.660 I think the corollary to that, though, is I think you've seen a lot of people look

01:55:14.720 for an alternative, and that's where I think we've seen some strength come from the PPC

01:55:21.280 party being reflected in the polls.

01:55:22.820 Again, that's something I'm going to be watching tonight with keen interest.

01:55:25.700 Do you think Kenny has cost O'Toole votes in Alberta?

01:55:31.380 You know, people say Kenny obviously was a high-profile federal conservative.

01:55:40.320 There's a lot of people unhappy with Kenny.

01:55:42.880 Did it actually change, or will it change their vote with O'Toole?

01:55:47.720 I'm a little skeptical about that because, you know, we've seen the premier of Quebec,

01:55:53.120 Francois Legault, come out and effectively endorse O'Toole.

01:55:56.780 And, you know, that didn't seem to move the needle that much in Quebec voter intention.

01:56:02.540 So we'll, it might change.

01:56:05.120 People may change their minds in the ballot box.

01:56:07.560 We'll see.

01:56:08.780 But where is the PPC support coming from then?

01:56:11.700 You know, in Alberta, where is the PPC support being drawn from?

01:56:16.120 You know, I think there's a lot of support from the PPC party.

01:56:22.120 It's not just about anti-vaxxers or things strictly of that nature.

01:56:28.760 I think there's a bit more of a populist amount of support out there.

01:56:32.800 And, you know, as someone who, I mean, going back to time,

01:56:36.260 I wrote the business plan for the Wild Rose Party,

01:56:39.060 was there from the beginning until, you know, the merger.

01:56:42.600 So I got to know so much of our base very well.

01:56:45.020 Corey, you could say the same thing.

01:56:47.380 You know, there's a strong independent streak.

01:56:51.020 There's a belief that folks that are inclined to vote that way

01:56:55.940 will want their political leaders to stay true to their words,

01:56:59.320 true to their campaign promises.

01:57:01.060 They don't like to be taken for granted.

01:57:04.600 You know, your word is your bond.

01:57:06.400 A handshake means something.

01:57:08.780 They don't want to hear mixed messages from across the country.

01:57:11.740 and they respect a strong leader who will, you know, take it on the chin

01:57:17.940 even if other parts of the country may not agree and punch back.

01:57:22.560 And bluntly, Bernier was the guy to reflect that kind of sentiment.

01:57:27.540 I think there was a lot of attraction to that kind of message.

01:57:30.600 Now, polls in Alberta close very shortly.

01:57:33.840 How many non-conservative seats do you see?

01:57:37.240 You know, northeast Calgary, we're seeing, I think, George Chahal actually could have a good chance at winning up there.

01:57:48.140 It's flip-flopped a little bit back and forth the last couple of elections.

01:57:52.840 He is, while he's on the side of the city council that doesn't exactly win gold stars amongst the conservative base,

01:58:01.080 he is well-respected.

01:58:03.620 You know, just talking to people, like he was the coach on the soccer team, he was there through the hailstorms that happened, he was accessible, a personable type of person.

01:58:15.800 So on an individual basis, people give that a lot of credence.

01:58:19.040 And my read, understanding is he's been far more active and connected to the community than the Federal Conservative MP.

01:58:29.180 That's just feedback I'm hearing on the ground.

01:58:31.900 I mean, of course, in Edmonton, you'll probably have an NDP hold there.

01:58:37.640 You know, a bit of insight I've had into the Calgary Centre campaign with Greg McLean and that.

01:58:42.460 I'm confident that they'll hold that.

01:58:45.760 They don't have the high-profile Liberal candidate that they had in the last election.

01:58:51.240 I don't think that, you know, in the past when Calgary Centre flipped and Kent Hare won,

01:58:59.960 Kent was more of a, you know, semi-popular liberal MLA at the time.

01:59:06.700 And when he lost, it was for some questionable, scandalous type of behavior.

01:59:12.860 So that was working against him.

01:59:14.880 But they also, there was a bit of an upswing, a change type of vote for when that went to Kent Hare too.

01:59:20.980 If there's a change in this election, it's the swing away from Trudeau and the liberals and towards Kent Hare.

01:59:26.540 So all of that, I think that's going to be a whole.

01:59:29.760 Well, the updates, I mean, they kind of started strong and then just stalled.

01:59:34.280 Nothing much has changed.

01:59:35.960 But let's pull up the map and have a look.

01:59:37.920 We're still looking at 25 Liberals leading, nine Conservatives.

01:59:41.980 The bloc was on the board very briefly there with one seat.

01:59:46.700 They've gone back down to zero, so there must be a close one.

01:59:49.960 Again, when you get small numbers, those are going to change pretty quickly.

01:59:52.800 and the Conservatives are hanging in there with nine.

01:59:57.220 I imagine, though, as usual, once they'll start rolling in from central Canada,

02:00:02.400 we'll see quite a flood of change all at once.

02:00:06.480 And that's when we'll really be able to start digging in and drilling down

02:00:09.760 to seeing what's been happening with this election.

02:00:12.140 Has the PPC factor really been at play in Ontario, Quebec, and where are we going with things?

02:00:19.420 Yeah, like I say, you know, one of the other elements that we saw this evening was the

02:00:25.700 rise in the BQ, in particular after the English, well, after the both debates really, I think

02:00:33.500 there was some thought that the BQ may be weakening some of their stance, or weakening

02:00:38.060 their position and voter base a little bit, but, you know, they really seem to get a little

02:00:44.100 bit more rejuvenated out there, so that's going to be another interesting thing to see

02:00:48.220 that ends up actually coming through.

02:00:50.540 And, you know, we saw one of the Rousseau,

02:00:54.660 the former NDP MP come back and throw her hat in the ring. 0.97

02:00:58.860 You know, we'll see if that ends up flipping a seat

02:01:00.880 to the NDP again from the Liberals.

02:01:04.340 But Quebec's an interesting voter dynamic.

02:01:08.680 It can change from time to time.

02:01:10.600 If you look provincially, and that's, again,

02:01:12.340 we're not seeing provincial dynamics

02:01:15.780 are harbingers necessarily for a federal race,

02:01:19.560 but obviously in Quebec,

02:01:21.580 we've seen some change at the provincial level

02:01:24.300 going from the current Legault,

02:01:27.740 more nationalist government

02:01:29.140 from a liberal government,

02:01:31.780 from a Bloc Québécois,

02:01:33.980 or sorry, Parti Québécois type of government.

02:01:36.160 So they do kind of move around from time to time

02:01:38.800 and we'll have to see how that ends up

02:01:40.820 playing out this election.

02:01:42.860 Yeah, it's hard to keep reading in

02:01:45.120 until we get some good results popping up on the board,

02:01:48.260 which hopefully are going to be coming along soon.

02:01:51.980 We do have Vitor Marciano back in to add some comments,

02:01:55.240 and we've got Derek Fildebrand back on the panel.

02:02:00.120 So please, welcome back to the panel.

02:02:03.340 Vitor, how's it going up there?

02:02:06.920 It's really early, but it's off to a good start.

02:02:10.380 If I'm the Liberals, I'm a little concerned

02:02:12.460 because atlantic canada is not going their way and uh uh you know some of these seats are really

02:02:19.180 close um you know nobody thought the liberals were going to lose any seats in newfoundland and

02:02:26.880 right now they're significantly behind you know 900 votes almost behind in uh costa bay central

02:02:33.420 notre dame um they you know that wasn't the one i would have picked that the conservatives would

02:02:39.860 have done well then. I thought the Conservatives had a shot in Long Range Mountains in Bona Vista

02:02:43.140 Bureau and Trinity, and the Liberals did too, and they put extra effort into winning those seats,

02:02:47.940 but they, you know, they seem to have ignored Scott Sims' writing, and, you know, it's, there's

02:02:52.680 only 16 polls left to count there, and the Conservatives are up by 900 votes. That's kind

02:03:00.640 of interesting stuff. So it's not great right now for the Liberals. And Nova Scotia and New

02:03:11.740 Brunswick can sometimes be harbingers of what happens in the 905. If you can do well in sort

02:03:18.040 of red Tory Nova Scotia, you can do well in red Tory New Brunswick, and right now the Conservatives

02:03:24.200 are picking up seats in both provinces, that starts to worry people about what's going to

02:03:29.560 happen in, you know, what's going to happen in the rest of the country. So, you know, in very few

02:03:36.380 minutes, we're going to start getting results from Ontario, results from Quebec, results from all of

02:03:40.800 the prairies. And, you know, if I'm the Liberals right now, I'm a little nervous. I'm, you know,

02:03:46.900 I'm a lot nervous. And if I'm the Conservatives, it's still really early, but it's better than

02:03:52.680 they were at this point last time. And the things that are doing better are things that give you

02:03:58.500 some hope yeah i'm certain they'd be wanting and hoping to see a a liberal sweep going on out there

02:04:04.580 as they had in the past and that and that just doesn't seem to be developing so i mean if it is

02:04:08.180 a bellwether it's not a pretty one at this time no and and we didn't you know we didn't see there

02:04:16.900 were a handful of polls that suggested that conservatives were doing this well but most of

02:04:22.020 the polls were not suggesting that so um it looks like there was a little bit of lack of enthusiasm

02:04:27.940 on the part of the liberal waters again in atlantic canada some of these writings are getting

02:04:32.500 down to you know 15 or 20 polls left to count out of 200 so uh you know some of them are still early

02:04:39.220 though and so they can still change a lot but it's if i'm timo tool i'm feeling pretty good

02:04:46.100 vitor one of the the trends i'm noticing across atlantic canada right now is a fairly repressed

02:04:54.340 NDP vote. I mean, the NDP have not traditionally been particularly strong outside of a few

02:05:03.220 pockets, normally in Nova Scotia, sometimes in the Franco areas of New Brunswick. But we're 0.79

02:05:10.820 seeing some pretty weak NDP numbers out here that I guess we're talking about the other side of

02:05:16.900 vote splitting, if you will. If we're looking, Acadia Bathurst, 12.2% for the NDP. That has the

02:05:22.900 the Liberals trouncing things, 61.7% ahead of the Conservatives at 13.5. Again, in the Franco areas 1.00

02:05:32.780 of New Brunswick, Madawaska, Restagouche. Just destroying. Something like that. 49.9% for the

02:05:44.600 Liberals, way ahead of the Conservatives at 27.1. The NDP down to 8.2. This is a riding that the

02:05:51.740 NDP held not very long ago. Do you think, so the NDP are underperforming their polls in Atlantic

02:06:01.020 Canada right now. What are your thoughts on how this might develop? The overall impression is

02:06:07.440 there for that. But realistically, they've only got a shot in two places, in my opinion, in Halifax

02:06:13.500 and they're 800 votes behind with about half the polls counted. So that isn't great, but it's not

02:06:20.500 insurmountable yet and then i'm sliding over to newfoundland to go check on on st john's east uh

02:06:28.100 you know there's only 40 polls left to count and they're losing by 1300 votes there so i i think

02:06:34.260 the the you know the ndp has not had a good start in atlantic canada they really in my opinion they

02:06:39.780 really only two seats that they were chasing this time it's been a while since since they've done as

02:06:44.420 well in Acadie Bathurst as they used to. I mean, right now, Acadie Bathurst is overwhelmingly

02:06:52.420 liberal. I mean, the Liberals winning it by 10,000 votes, and there's still like 40 polls left to

02:06:57.860 count. So, you know, Jagmeet Singh didn't spend too much time out there, but he probably should

02:07:05.540 have visited Halifax one more time. And, you know, Harris's seat in St. John's isn't looking good

02:07:13.460 for them so you know right now i'd say the new democrats have as much reason to be a little bit

02:07:18.180 annoyed as the liberals again that opens the door to something interesting happening in 905

02:07:24.660 where you know it's still too early to tell but there's a possibility of of good things coming

02:07:32.100 the i mean i don't know what new democrat voters would be particularly terrified of this election

02:07:39.460 I mean, Aaron O'Toole has gone out of his way to move into the center.

02:07:44.000 And I think there's two elements of a strategy of moving into the center.

02:07:48.160 One is to make red Tories, blue liberals more comfortable with voting conservatives.

02:07:53.140 The other is to make new Democrats less terrified of not voting for who they want.

02:07:59.840 I think that's a key part of the strategy.

02:08:01.960 But the NDP vote, at least in Atlantic, maybe we shouldn't read too much into it.

02:08:05.720 But the NDP vote is pretty damn soft as if as if I was running or something.

02:08:12.700 Well, let's put it this way. It is soft.

02:08:17.080 I do agree with you that it was part of Aaron O'Toole's strategy.

02:08:20.660 And I'm going to go a step further. It worked across Canada in the last few days.

02:08:25.600 The New Democrats were running television ads that basically said the liberals and the conservatives both suck.

02:08:31.720 vote for us and the last time the new democrats did that was 2011 and they had a really good

02:08:38.940 election that way in 2015 in the last week and a half of a very long election thomas mulcair

02:08:44.460 brought out his new slogan of stop harper and and it was you know the the the the hidden message in

02:08:50.620 that slogan was leave the ndp behind and go vote liberal to stop harper and it was a dreadful

02:08:55.800 mistake. In 2019, with again, about two weeks to go in the election, Singh made it clear that he

02:09:02.600 wasn't going to do anything to help Scheer. Well, that just tells his voters that stopping Scheer is

02:09:08.280 more important than voting NDP. He didn't do that this election. And that's going to have an impact

02:09:14.480 in British Columbia. That's going to have an impact in and around the seats that border

02:09:20.920 hamilton where hamilton is a liberal ndp fight but the seats the border hamilton are conservative

02:09:27.560 liberal fights with you know with usually the ndp vote collapsing to the liberals it might not this

02:09:34.360 election so there's there's so many of these really interesting splits that are available to be played

02:09:42.680 i was just going to chime in on the race in fredericton there where we've got

02:09:48.440 you know, Andrea Johnson actually leading there right now, which is an interesting one to watch 0.92

02:09:53.560 because, of course, that was a bit of a surprise for the Green Party in the last election.

02:09:57.080 And then, of course, the MP, Jenica Atwin, crossed the floor to the Liberal Party.

02:10:03.080 And there were no government announcements until she crossed the party.

02:10:07.880 And then the Liberals, you know, shoveled a bunch of cash in through seven different

02:10:10.920 announcements into that riding. And now she's behind a little bit to the

02:10:16.600 The Conservative candidate there in the Green Party is trailing woefully behind.

02:10:22.200 Yeah, it's definitely an interesting one.

02:10:24.800 About 300 votes difference, half the polls still to count.

02:10:28.560 So it's still quite early, but it does look like the voters there are not too enthusiastic

02:10:35.000 about their Green Party person becoming a Liberal.

02:10:39.240 You know, she's carried over a lot of that vote with her, but it's, you know, it's still

02:10:45.880 early she could still pull it out but uh there's got to be a lot of liberal campaign managers that 1.00

02:10:50.940 are worried about that and i see the the green somewhere do uh have a seat leading on the board

02:10:59.080 somewhere that might be some early results popping in someplace or something but the results are

02:11:02.940 oh we just had uh ontario and quebec open up yeah uh why don't we go to the map and uh run through

02:11:10.660 an update uh corey why don't you uh tell us tell us where we're with the initial uh rash of results

02:11:17.220 we don't have all of ontario showing uh vitor maybe if you also we have also clinton devoe

02:11:22.500 standing by uh the two of you want to take a look at the numbers as we prepare for an update here

02:11:27.460 i want you to lead us through corey certainly i i can't quite see the breakdown of where they're

02:11:31.540 all coming from but we're getting some bigger numbers in okay well i can run through the

02:11:36.180 the leading elective. I've got the interactive map here. Okay. So we've got 39 liberals continuing

02:11:41.720 to lead with 39, the conservatives 16, the block four, the NDP one, the green one, and PPC at nil

02:11:53.780 so far. That green seat appears to be, I thought it was maybe Toronto Centre where Anime Paul is

02:12:01.300 running. We're going to have to track that down, but these are very early polls, early

02:12:06.720 reporting. There's not a lot of results in yet. Most of the ridings in the East that

02:12:15.680 have just moved up, or I should say Central Canada, there's not a lot of results showing

02:12:21.180 yet. I know we're also going to have Jay Hill standing by here in just a moment. Oh, actually,

02:12:26.920 we have Jay Hill now. Vito, we'll come back to you in a bit here. I appreciate your time.

02:12:32.740 We're going to go to Jay Hill now, leader of the Maverick Party, someone whose area of the

02:12:38.000 country that they're running in is very much not yet reporting. Jay, welcome. Let's bring

02:12:45.120 Jay into the stream. There he is. Jay, welcome to the show. Great to be with you, Derek.

02:12:50.000 Well, we appreciate your time. Obviously, no results in from the West yet. But what's your

02:12:59.480 initial reaction in the East? We're starting to get some fairly firm results in Atlantic Canada,

02:13:05.520 some moderate, reasonable conservative gains, but still far behind the Liberals.

02:13:12.440 The results in Quebec and Ontario, I think I wouldn't... Actually, it looks like Manitoba

02:13:17.640 just perhaps opened up its first ones as well.

02:13:20.760 Conservatives James Bazan and Mary Maguire leading in two seats in Manitoba.

02:13:26.520 But these are all early showings right now.

02:13:30.740 What's your reaction so far to the results from a Western perspective

02:13:34.840 and your perspective as the Maverick leader?

02:13:38.320 Well, there are no real surprises yet, I don't think.

02:13:41.240 although, you know, give Mr. O'Toole some well-deserved due, I guess, in the sense that

02:13:48.740 his party is doing a little bit better than Atlantic Canada. It certainly would appear so

02:13:54.280 to me, especially if you compared it back to 2015 when the Liberals swept Atlantic Canada.

02:14:01.060 So I think the general consensus is that if the results coming out of Atlantic Canada hold true

02:14:08.180 across the nation, then Erin O'Toole and the Conservatives could indeed do better than expected.

02:14:14.580 I guess that's about the only thing that observation we can make at this stage, because

02:14:18.720 as you say, it's very, very early on. Many of the races are very close. A lot of ballots to be

02:14:27.260 counted, even where they're indicating that a Conservative or a Liberal is leading, that could

02:14:33.060 change so uh it's going to be a long evening i suspect just as uh as all the pundits and pollsters

02:14:40.100 were telling us jay we don't yet have any of the results of the west other than two uh two single

02:14:47.940 polls reporting out of manitoba one in uh each of the two constituencies that uh are technically

02:14:54.740 reporting uh but what is your expectation for the evening how do you think maverick

02:15:00.740 I mean, I know you're going to, I've been a politician as well. I know how dangerous giving

02:15:07.700 good answers is. We're trained to dance around them, but I've got to put it to you.

02:15:12.980 What's your expectation for Maverick tonight? Well, I mean, it's really hard to get a handle

02:15:20.580 on Derek in the sense that to my knowledge, there's been little or no riding by riding

02:15:28.260 polling done. It's extremely expensive to do. The only real accurate way is completed phone calls.

02:15:34.500 It's not via email or social media. To my knowledge, we certainly have not had the

02:15:43.300 financial resources to do that type of thing in the 29 ridings that we're contesting

02:15:48.020 as Mavericks. I don't know if other parties have done that on a riding-by-riding basis. If they

02:15:53.700 are they're obviously keeping that information to themselves so we're really in the dark uh you know

02:15:59.780 our candidates gave it by far the best shot they could i'm immensely proud of them and i'm not just

02:16:05.140 saying that is as you suggest uh we both we were both former politicians we know how this game is

02:16:11.380 played and you try to put the best spin possible on it but i'm being very sincere and honest uh the

02:16:17.140 29 people that we had running for us in this campaign are just super down to earth western

02:16:23.620 canadians that are doing it for the right reasons and i'm i'm just so proud of the effort that

02:16:28.740 they've put in now having said all of that i mean uh as you know my history goes way back to the

02:16:35.460 beginnings of the reform in the middle mid 1980s it ran in 1988 as did our campaign manager val

02:16:43.540 Fraser now, Val Meredith at the time and so Val and I went through the defeat of 1988 when reform

02:16:51.460 didn't elect anyone when it was less than a year old when we contested that election and you know

02:16:59.300 so I see a lot of similarities between the reform party in its early infancy and Maverick Derek so

02:17:08.020 my expectations are is that uh the voters will have their say uh obviously we hope that they

02:17:13.780 opt for real uh western representation that's what we ran on and uh but we will ultimately see

02:17:21.460 how well our message resonated with voters in these 29 ridings so i'm going to ask you the

02:17:27.860 same question that i asked people's party leader maxime bernier when he was on uh a bit before you

02:17:33.620 here. My question to you is, if you were to win only one seat in this election, and that'd be a

02:17:44.340 very big accomplishment for a new party and one especially as new as Maverick in its very first

02:17:48.860 election. If you were to win one seat, let's put your pundit hat on here. We'll take the leader

02:17:53.480 hat off, put the pundit hat on, if I could force it onto your head here. Which seat do you think

02:17:58.200 that would be well i would say that it would quite possibly either be my former constituency

02:18:07.080 in northeastern british columbia where we have a young man by the name of dave jeffers running

02:18:12.680 up in the writing is called prince george peace river northern rockies it's uh roughly

02:18:17.960 a quarter of the land mass of british columbia i'd like to say that writing name 10 times fast

02:18:23.240 prince george peace river northern rockies uh um yeah it's easy for me to say because i i said the

02:18:31.560 early part of that prince george peace river is it was known the entire uh six parliaments that

02:18:37.400 i represented the good folks up there so i think it'll it would either be them or possibly peace

02:18:44.120 river westlock we have a again a young family man uh colin krieger running there he's run an

02:18:51.000 absolutely outstanding campaign, getting around the myriad small communities in that huge Northern

02:18:58.500 Alberta riding. So that's another possibility. And we've got a couple of pretty strong

02:19:02.560 ridings as well in Saskatchewan, Derek. So, you know, I really have no idea how this is going to

02:19:11.200 go. I mean, obviously, we're very hopeful that we have a strong showing at the least. We were

02:19:17.620 already getting plans in place to begin the next campaign tomorrow and because in all likelihood

02:19:25.040 as we know this will likely be a minority parliament one way or the other either Trudeau

02:19:30.820 or O'Toole and either way it's probably not going to last any more than the average which is about

02:19:36.660 18 months to two years so we're going to start working towards the next campaign as soon as

02:19:41.700 tomorrow very good i'll give uh let's give the last question to uh jeff calloway here and then

02:19:50.580 we're going to be bringing uh dave nailer back in for an update on uh the results as they're coming

02:19:55.620 in thanks eric yeah good to speak with you jay you know a couple of things that i'm thinking about

02:20:01.940 as in folks in building a party i was there with wild rose you were there with reform i watched

02:20:07.380 all of that, Bill, you know, some of the parties' advantages come from the missteps of your

02:20:15.820 opponents and who was in government at the time.

02:20:18.980 You know, it's looking like we'll get either the Trudom minority or a O'Toole minority.

02:20:26.600 You want to say whether you would prefer one or the other, at least as a way to help build

02:20:33.820 the momentum behind the Maverick Party?

02:20:36.560 And then actually, just secondarily, so much of a party's success is dependent on building

02:20:42.880 that organization.

02:20:45.440 It's that back room, shake the hands, coffee shop, organizing constituencies, fundraising,

02:20:52.420 getting efficient, doing the mail outs, having town halls, all of that grunt hard work that

02:20:57.400 goes into that you've lived many times before myself too.

02:21:02.300 does that look like for for the maverick party after this election well that's two great questions

02:21:08.580 i mean first of all do i have a preference i've been very outspoken right from the beginning

02:21:13.620 because uh obviously i come from conservative roots i think the majority of certainly of prairie

02:21:18.720 westerners if you look at from basically the continental divide uh to the suburbs of winnipeg

02:21:26.140 are predominantly Conservative. So I think for the betterment not only of Western Canada,

02:21:32.980 but indeed the entire country, we would be better off with an Erwin O'Toole Conservative

02:21:38.460 government rather than a Justin Trudeau repeat of his Liberal administration. So I've been very

02:21:45.300 clear about that. That would be my personal preference. That's not the best preference

02:21:51.320 for Maverick, but I'm looking at what's best for the West, which is another one of our rallying

02:21:57.680 prize for Maverick. Because the reality is that the best scenario for us is that Mr. O'Toole

02:22:05.920 wins a handful more seats, but Justin Trudeau refuses to give up government. And under our

02:22:12.360 system, that could well happen. And I can't imagine the anger that would radiate across

02:22:20.440 Western Canada in particular were that to happen. But that wouldn't be the best scenario, obviously,

02:22:26.120 as I said, for Canada. As for our plans going forward, as I indicated, we're planning on

02:22:33.240 starting our next campaign tomorrow. We're going to be rallying people around. We're certainly going

02:22:39.160 to study the data and see exactly where our strengths and weaknesses lie. And one of our

02:22:45.000 first priorities will be to organize in the remainder of the four western ridings we need to

02:22:51.560 get our uh electoral district associations up and running we need to attract enough volunteers to

02:22:57.640 have strong organizations that can field a quality candidate just as we did in the 29 ridings that we

02:23:04.440 contested today well jay uh thank you very much for your being generous with your time and joining

02:23:11.720 us today. I appreciate your insight as always. Not obliged, but if you would, if you care to

02:23:20.360 drop in later for your results, I'd be fascinated to get your take on things as the Western results

02:23:26.800 come in. Certainly. Thanks, Derek, for the invite. And we'll see if, you know, it's past my bedtime

02:23:34.040 or not. Sounds good. I just got to chime in on one thing. And thanks, Jay, for joining as well.

02:23:40.680 you're you're truly a gentleman with your answer on that that last one so kudos to you

02:23:45.080 but I do have to point out that we just saw on the screen what may be an emerging national trend

02:23:53.160 the green wave Gatineau is going green one poll in Gatineau was going green it's it's a start

02:24:01.560 but they've got 67 of the vote I I don't know if there's a Sierra Club branch that has its own

02:24:09.560 pole station, but they are going green right now.

02:24:13.460 No, no.

02:24:13.940 I went to university in Ottawa, and you know what the problem is?

02:24:18.000 The capital is there. 0.98

02:24:19.220 It's full of insane bureaucrats. 1.00

02:24:20.860 That's why it's going nuts. 0.99

02:24:23.520 All right.

02:24:23.980 Thank you for your time, Jay.

02:24:25.120 We're going to be going to Franco Teresano of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation next.

02:24:29.440 We'll hopefully get with you again later, Jay.

02:24:32.520 Franco, let's bring Franco into the show right now.

02:24:36.320 Franco looking spiffy as always.

02:24:38.000 I was actually noting earlier, I was in the green room while Corey and the others were

02:24:43.160 interviewing you, that cabinet over your right shoulder, I think I assembled it when I worked

02:24:47.520 in that office at one point.

02:24:49.600 Yeah, we even have the taxpayer priorities just over my shoulder there.

02:24:53.460 Oh, there you go.

02:24:55.280 Franco, we've got pretty firm results now coming out of Atlantic Canada and the initial

02:25:02.400 results coming into central Canada. Although, I don't know, I think everything east of

02:25:10.720 superior is the east. But you might agree with me as well. Let's just, actually, before we go to

02:25:19.660 Franco, though, I want to get Franco's reaction. Let's get a brief update of where things are at

02:25:23.440 from Dave Naylor as we're getting the central Canadian polls coming in. And then we're going

02:25:28.060 to go to you, Franco, for reaction. Yeah, we're getting some Quebec numbers and Ontario

02:25:35.380 numbers. What it means across the country, including the Meritage. Let's get the map

02:25:39.680 up on the screen as we're going through here. Okay. Apparently there is a technical difficulty

02:25:47.100 and we do not have a map available. So let's just go to Dan. I'll just whip through them

02:25:51.300 Liberals leading or re-elected in 63, Conservatives 32, NDP 8, Bloc, Quebecois 7, and other would

02:26:04.100 be one.

02:26:05.100 I guess that's the green wave.

02:26:08.600 The green wave.

02:26:09.600 One poll in Gatineau does not a wave make.

02:26:14.360 How do you eat an elephant?

02:26:15.680 One bite at a time.

02:26:17.200 It's a start.

02:26:18.200 Jeff, I know we're not very deep into the beers yet here, but I will bet you right now the

02:26:25.160 beer cost for the evening that the Greens are not going to win Gatineau.

02:26:29.720 Well, I'm not taking that bet.

02:26:31.720 Okay.

02:26:32.720 See, that's an easy way to settle it.

02:26:35.880 That's an easy way to settle it.

02:26:37.200 Okay.

02:26:38.200 Franco, let's go to your reaction and then we're going to get into the policy a bit.

02:26:41.600 Yeah.

02:26:42.600 Well, my initial reaction is that it's still an early, it's still a very early point in

02:26:47.000 the night, right?

02:26:48.000 And I remember hearing one of the things that a lot of people have been talking to me, at least, about is that this is a very expensive election election, maybe the most expensive in Canadian history, six hundred and ten million dollars.

02:26:59.980 But, Derek, the way things are shaping out, the real cost to taxpayers tonight is going to come from these massive spending announcements that we've that we've heard from these leading parties.

02:27:12.340 Well, Franco, I've been in your position before.

02:27:16.240 I know you're supposed to talk about taxpayer stuff.

02:27:18.300 You're not the politician, but sometimes you can play a little bit of both.

02:27:24.140 How much of a part of Canadian elections is vote buying, though?

02:27:31.580 You and I are probably not the typical voters.

02:27:34.960 We probably generally don't appreciate it when people try to bribe us with their own money.

02:27:39.360 But how successful do you think parties have been at vote buying, using taxpayers' money to move the needle electorally in this election?

02:27:50.280 And do you think any party has stood out both as the most egregious example and perhaps as the best example of not doing so?

02:27:58.200 Yeah, a lot to unpack there.

02:27:59.300 So, Derek, this whole election has been vote buying.

02:28:02.180 But just one thing that I have to push back on there, they're not trying to buy our votes with our own money.

02:28:07.620 We're way past that.

02:28:08.960 They're trying to buy our votes with Canadians' kids and grandkids' money, right? 0.92

02:28:13.160 Remember, under the current trajectory of the Trudeau government, we wouldn't see a balanced budget until 2070.

02:28:19.200 Five decades of deficit spending, which is completely unacceptable.

02:28:24.000 That would add trillions of dollars to the already engorged debt.

02:28:27.360 Trillions of dollars that we would lose out to interest charges in the meantime.

02:28:30.900 Now, in terms of who is the biggest spending, it would have to be the new Democrats.

02:28:34.820 We heard $200 billion in additional spending coming from the NDP.

02:28:39.880 So they are completely divorced from financial reality.

02:28:43.860 They're not even in the same planet as we are right now, Derek.

02:28:47.640 In terms of the next highest spenders of the Liberals, $78 billion in additional spending.

02:28:53.840 And then there's the Conservatives with about $50 billion in additional spending.

02:28:58.680 And the key word there is additional spending.

02:29:00.420 So that's an additional $50 billion above what was in the last Liberal government's budget, which was a huge spending budget.

02:29:08.720 Did you do, so you did the Liberals and the Conservatives there.

02:29:12.400 Did you guys do a breakdown of spending commitments in the platforms of the NDP or People's Party?

02:29:19.160 Yeah, so we did the NDP.

02:29:21.520 About $200 billion in additional spending coming from the NDP, which is more than the Liberals, which is more than the Conservatives.

02:29:28.320 is an absolutely crazy amount of spending. And Derek, one thing that I have to point out with

02:29:33.160 the NDP is it seems like they want to raise every tax under the sun. They want to raise income taxes

02:29:38.280 on top earners. They want to raise business taxes. They want to raise capital gains taxes.

02:29:42.440 They want to put in a wealth tax. They want to put in excess profits tax. And Derek, they're

02:29:46.540 going to spend so much money that despite all of those tax hikes, they would still have no idea

02:29:51.660 how they would balance the budget. And essentially what the NDP is trying to sell Canadians on is,

02:29:56.960 hey, don't worry. It's just going to be the wealthy or big businesses who end up paying

02:30:00.980 these taxes. But the truth of the matter is, it's going to be everyday Canadians who feel

02:30:05.180 the pain of those taxes through higher prices at the till and through fewer job opportunities.

02:30:11.840 All right. Let's do one question from Dave for Franco. And then we're going to go to our next

02:30:18.040 guest, Aaron Gunn from British Columbia. I don't have anything for Franco to be anything.

02:30:25.780 I'm looking at Edmonton-Greesbeck results, of which there isn't any.

02:30:32.240 It's a bit early.

02:30:33.460 I'll just dig in a little bit.

02:30:36.120 Franco, as we were listening to the debates, we're seeing promises, more spending across the board on a variety of things.

02:30:46.140 We see a lot of programs, costs, expenses, be it there's explicit spending promises,

02:30:53.040 but then there's also downloading onto consumers and voters through higher taxes and levies and policies

02:30:59.860 that result in those cost of living increases that all Canadians are struggling with,

02:31:06.260 are going to struggle with increasingly so.

02:31:09.220 One of the questions in the debates that I was pulling the last half of my hair out on

02:31:15.780 was, you know, how are you going to respond to cost of living increases?

02:31:19.980 And the general response by all the party leaders was, spend more money, send more checks.

02:31:26.360 So, you know, from your perspective, you know, what are some of the things that we should be demanding of our elected officials to get those cost of living increases down?

02:31:37.980 If it's not handing out more checks.

02:31:40.860 Well, that's an easy one.

02:31:41.660 And that's, hey, take a look in the mirror and take a good long look in the mirror because you can't talk about the cost of living without mentioning how the government is significantly increasing that cost of living.

02:31:51.600 You know, we touched on it in the last segment, but even during the pandemic, the average Canadian family spent about 36% of its budget just to taxes, which is more than what the average Canadian family was paying for housing, clothing and food combined.

02:32:05.680 So imagine if we actually had politicians that let families keep more money in their own pockets. 0.92

02:32:10.400 I mean, that would improve affordability for all aspects of life. And there's one thing that I have

02:32:14.880 to point out because we talked about this, but we also heard recently a 4% year over year increase

02:32:21.120 in consumer prices. Well, hey, look at any one time, there is a myriad of factors that

02:32:26.320 can influence prices, but we got to talk about the elephant in the room and that's the government's

02:32:31.200 printing press the central bank the bank of canada uh during the pandemic it um it printed 370

02:32:37.760 billion dollars uh worth of new dollars right so it's no surprise that as the as the printing

02:32:43.280 press has been on overdrive for the last 18 months that we're seeing higher consumer prices

02:32:50.400 well i think uh we'd petition that in the next election the bank of canada should be on the

02:32:54.240 ballot and let uh let voters decide if they should be spending this much money uh franco thank you

02:32:59.280 very much for your time. We're going to come back to you in a bit. We're going to move now to Aaron

02:33:04.000 Gunn. Aaron Gunn is a conservative activist from British Columbia, also a Canadian Taxpayers

02:33:11.120 Federation alumni. I swear to God, this is not the CTF reunion club here, but we do manage to

02:33:18.080 get around when we're done our tour of duty there. Good evening, Aaron. Oh, Aaron is still muted right

02:33:26.640 now no aaron is uh still here right now we're gonna have to get oh there i think there is

02:33:34.720 good evening aaron can you hear me now derek good evening how's it going excellent where

02:33:40.560 are you coming to us from we're in a little uh watch party here in uh kitsilano and that's kind

02:33:47.040 of a suburb of vancouver and a bunch of mainly conservatives i'd say have gathered to watch the

02:33:52.960 the results come in. You're a pretty keen observer and sometimes participant in British Columbia

02:34:01.820 politics. Obviously, B.C.'s polls, we're sick and tired enough here in Alberta of learning our

02:34:09.340 results long after the country has generally voted and decided things. But I suppose we've got

02:34:14.440 nothing on British Columbia. You're a bit further on. Why don't you give us your prediction of what

02:34:19.340 you expect at least in british columbia uh when we what can we expect to see in the results when

02:34:24.680 the polls uh start reporting there well if it's a close election it definitely will come down to

02:34:32.540 british columbia a bunch of the closest ridings in the entire country are in bc so people will

02:34:38.160 be watching very closely and unlike most places uh it's three-way races and a lot of times it's

02:34:44.100 it's conservatives fighting ndp it's ndp fighting liberals and uh and conservatives fighting the ndp

02:34:50.260 mixed in with obviously the green uh strongholds that they're going to be trying to keep on

02:34:54.580 keep a hold of on vancouver island so if it comes down to the wire it will come down definitely to

02:34:59.780 british columbia the the ndp are really the ones to watch they're pulling about five points uh

02:35:06.580 better than they performed last time and of course we'll keep an eye on the ppc spoiler effect as well

02:35:12.020 well since you went there let's let's talk about that uh the people's party you said it's a spoiler

02:35:19.440 effect um in your estimation is the ppc vote coming um mostly just from the conservatives

02:35:26.120 uh or i mean there's a bit of analysis of trying to build the profile the voter profile of a ppc

02:35:32.380 voter who are they um really where do you think the vote is coming from for the ppc in british

02:35:40.000 Columbia? And what kind of effect do you think it's going to have on the outcome?

02:35:47.260 Well, I think as you pointed out, it's coming from multiple places. The Greens obviously have

02:35:53.400 their stronghold in British Columbia. So with the collapse of the Green Party, I think just a good

02:35:59.120 chunk of those votes went to the PPC. And I would say that was up until a point until about two

02:36:04.320 weeks ago when O'Toole started flip-flopping on guns and other issues. And then I think you see

02:36:09.160 ppc gain another couple percent uh directly at the expense of the conservatives so we'll see if that

02:36:14.600 costs them ridings uh particularly well i think where they're trying where they're trying to hold

02:36:23.160 on and uh or where they're trying to pick up south okanagan and west kootenay it's you know it's

02:36:31.720 before uh some of the pollsters got into it uh cory morgan who's going to be rejoining us here

02:36:36.360 in a minute uh cory morgan predicted in a column that the ppc would actually pick up quite a bit

02:36:42.360 from the greens uh kind of the hippy dippy type you know people who believe in naturopathic medicine

02:36:47.560 and you know strong connection to nature uh people who are certainly not conservative uh green

02:36:53.880 switchers um but you know as you get into you know forced uh vaccine passports and issues like that

02:37:01.400 he predicted that these people would come over i thought he was a bit nuts but i mean cory has

02:37:06.280 been right where i've been wrong well i guess that once and uh is that much of a factor there

02:37:13.160 i know you originally hail uh at least in my experience when i first met you from vancouver

02:37:17.240 island and that is sort of the epicenter of uh of the green party in canada is is that your

02:37:22.600 experience uh about where these kinds of people hello yeah it's a mix look i think that the ppc

02:37:32.840 obviously the rent can hear me yeah we can hear you go ahead

02:37:42.200 i think aaron's having some trouble hearing us aaron okay well i was gonna

02:37:51.320 go ahead aaron

02:37:55.080 i'll just keep talking i don't i don't know if you can hear me or not but just cut me off if

02:37:59.080 if you can't but we can hear you i was just gonna say i think it's a mix and i think obviously last

02:38:04.680 time the ppc were running as a as a conservative party as they tried to frame themselves as the

02:38:09.640 true conservative party i think this election it's just been consumed by the vaccine passport 0.57

02:38:14.760 so you basically have a coalition of people opposed to vaccine passports coming together

02:38:19.400 to support the ppc and that includes lots of green voters and that includes lots of conservative

02:38:24.360 voters as well. Okay, we're going to come back to Aaron Gunn in a bit. I've got some results. Yeah,

02:38:34.000 we're going to go to Dave Naylor, pull up the map right now. Dave Naylor is going to give us some

02:38:39.380 results as we're having more polls reporting. And you'll be joined very soon by Corey Morgan.

02:38:46.400 Okay, map people, I'm going to be moving from Quebec East, sorry, Quebec West. So we'll start

02:38:53.420 in Quebec where there's 78 seats up for grabs. Currently, it's almost a dead tie between

02:39:00.780 the Liberals with 19% and the Bloc Quebec, sorry, 19 seats leading and elected. The Bloc

02:39:07.360 Quebecois is 18 seats leading and elected. New Democrats have two and the Conservative

02:39:14.960 6. If you're interested in the PPC voting there, they are currently polling only 2% of the vote,

02:39:26.100 so not really a factor in Quebec. Moving into Ontario, 121 seats up for grabs.

02:39:35.120 Conservatives currently leading and elected in 25. The Liberals, 52. And the New Democrats,

02:39:43.280 PPC doing a little bit better in Ontario, they're polling at 6%.

02:39:52.280 Moving into Alberta, we've got a few polls starting to report.

02:39:57.280 Conservatives, not unexpectedly, are leading in 15 and the Liberals won.

02:40:04.280 People's Party in Alberta at 6.2%.

02:40:09.280 2%, so initially not as high as they thought they were going to be.

02:40:16.300 Saskatchewan, again, not surprisingly, a majority Conservatives.

02:40:21.500 They're leading and elected in nine.

02:40:23.620 The New Democrats in two.

02:40:26.140 And the People's Party almost at 9% there in Saskatchewan.

02:40:32.040 So nationally, that takes us to 99 Liberals leading and elected,

02:40:38.420 62 for the Conservatives,

02:40:41.000 18 for the Block,

02:40:43.540 NDP at 15,

02:40:45.500 and the others would be, I guess,

02:40:47.120 Jeff Calloway's Saginaw Green Party.

02:40:51.800 They're leading in one.

02:40:53.960 Keep in mind, 170 needed for majority status,

02:40:58.940 so we've still got a long ways to go,

02:41:01.280 and I'll check in on Manitoba

02:41:03.440 and be back with you guys.

02:41:07.020 All right.

02:41:07.720 Well, we've gotten some numbers to chew through now.

02:41:11.220 We're not, I mean, it's early numbers, but we're not seeing a conservative breakthrough quite yet.

02:41:18.640 Okay, I've got Manitoba right here asking, you shall receive.

02:41:22.640 Conservatives leading or elected in six, Liberals in three, and the New Democratic Party in three.

02:41:31.820 People's Party polling at seven and a half percent.

02:41:35.460 okay well we've got a bunch to chew through and we do have our political stats man on standby

02:41:43.240 there if clinton's ready to come in we can pop him in and interpret uh what we got to date

02:41:48.700 so far it's been a good night for uh the conservative party they picked up uh what

02:41:56.940 looks like they're picking up some wins in atlantic canada they desperately needed that

02:42:00.860 I think one of the interesting things is that in Atlantic Canada, to some of your earlier discussion, the Liberals are at 42%.

02:42:09.100 The Conservatives are at 32%.

02:42:11.820 So that's a big difference there.

02:42:16.340 The New Democrats aren't even breaking 20% in Atlantic Canada.

02:42:20.560 They're down to 17%.

02:42:22.400 So they're basically down to the core of their vote.

02:42:24.740 And the PPC is at 5%.

02:42:26.860 What I find really interesting for the New Democrats is that specifically in the greater Halifax area, if we look at the provincial, the most recent provincial election, there was a number of NDP MLAs elected in the greater Halifax area.

02:42:42.520 And historically, the New Democrats have done well in the city of Halifax in recent elections over the last 20, 25 years.

02:42:52.880 What we're seeing now, however, is that, you know, the NDP vote essentially collapsed here in Metro Halifax and the Liberals were able to hold on.

02:43:03.000 And I'm also a little bit concerned with the national numbers.

02:43:06.220 Now, obviously, a lot of this is going to is going to shift as the prairie vote starts to roll in.

02:43:12.400 But if we look at like Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are at 42 percent right now and the Conservatives are at 32.

02:43:21.880 When we look at Ontario East and look, I think that's a potential problem because we're still early in the counts.

02:43:33.000 And we're, you know, there's only so many polls are reporting it in each riding.

02:43:39.860 But, you know, we really need the Conservatives to to perform really well in the prairies to tighten up those national numbers.

02:43:50.460 And it may, in fact, come down to British Columbia tonight.

02:43:54.000 That may be the deciding factor of who's going to form a government.

02:43:58.820 There's a lot of key ridings there.

02:44:01.640 And British Columbia, unlike any other province in Canada, is one that you have four political parties competing for seats, depending on what geographical region of the province that they're in.

02:44:14.660 So it's been a good night for conservatives.

02:44:18.180 The Liberals are holding their own.

02:44:22.240 And look, I think for the Liberals, they want to win in Ontario.

02:44:26.900 If they can't win in Ontario, this may be the beginning of the end of Justin Trudeau.

02:44:33.880 So I haven't had a chance to look, but the mail-in ballots are a large factor coming into this election.

02:44:39.940 Are there a lot of close races that you've noted in the Maritimes?

02:44:43.900 Because quite often mail-in ballots tend to favor the progressive candidates when they're counted eventually.

02:44:49.800 So they could be underreporting a bit of progressive support right now on some of those early ridings.

02:44:55.280 Well, look, I agree with you.

02:44:57.380 And I think that's going to be a problem specifically, you know, in Nova Scotia.

02:45:03.240 So one of the ridings that the Conservatives are performing well in right now is the riding of South Door.

02:45:10.440 and uh and that's a riding which is uh it makes up part of the greater halifax area

02:45:17.400 and uh look a lot of people in halifax travel overseas for work uh they have multiple homes

02:45:25.280 in different countries that sort of thing you know halifax is like any other major urban

02:45:29.620 center across the country and so those mail-in ballots could actually create problems in uh

02:45:38.220 You know, ridings like South Shore or perhaps, you know, even ridings like Fregerton in New Brunswick and that kind of thing.

02:45:49.220 So I think it may be not just a long night, but it could be a long couple of days as they count in those mail-in ballots, depending on just how many there are.

02:46:00.700 So, Josh, you've been watching the numbers coming in.

02:46:03.680 Are you seeing patterns, anything you feel you can read into this so far?

02:46:08.220 Well, for starters, in Newfoundland, the NDP's support has utterly collapsed.

02:46:14.500 It's still early in Quebec.

02:46:16.680 I haven't been super impressed with the block.

02:46:19.960 Quebec was early return, but that being said, it is very early in the process.

02:46:24.460 There's a pretty solid state of blue in southern Ontario.

02:46:28.300 I haven't had a chance to take a look at the 905 yet.

02:46:32.180 But it's still really early regarding the Ontario and Quebec results.

02:46:38.420 So it'll be interesting to see what happens moving forward.

02:46:43.660 Yeah, I'm really looking forward to see the prairies come in.

02:46:48.780 It should still solidly be blue, but I'll be watching the PPC to see if they can hit 10 to 15% in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

02:46:59.540 But yeah, that's what I'm looking at right now.

02:47:01.080 Corey, interesting stats in Ontario. Liberals are ahead in 70 ridings. Conservatives only 26. But when you look at total vote, the Liberals are only ahead by 5000 votes in all of those. So there's sure to be 5000 votes over 96 ridings.

02:47:22.960 So it is early days yet.

02:47:26.880 As Josh said, less than 3% of polls counted.

02:47:32.860 We'll keep an eye on them for the rest of the night, obviously.

02:47:36.240 And look, I just want to throw something in there to your point.

02:47:40.280 Look, Ontario is not just the big prize when it comes to the sheer number of seats,

02:47:45.320 But we have seen over multiple elections over the last 25 years that, you know, Ontario really is like Ontario and British Columbia are the two most competitive provinces in the country.

02:47:59.580 And if you can mobilize your get out the vote as, you know, your go TVs, it's often referred to.

02:48:09.000 That can be the difference between forming a government and sitting in opposition.

02:48:14.500 And what's interesting about Ontario and British Columbia is unlike Atlantic Canada and the Prairies that sort of have kind of one party that they tend to support over another, you know, Ontario is a province which is happy to switch back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives.

02:48:34.500 Conservatives. And so that makes those tight races that you're referring to that much more

02:48:40.740 important. Because if you have a spread of 5,000 votes over the course of 70 or 80 ridings,

02:48:47.720 that really comes down to who's going to get out their vote and who's going to mobilize their vote.

02:48:53.420 Yeah, well, and with the numbers we've got coming in, and we're seeing kind of

02:48:57.380 128 for the Liberals, 61 to 78 with the Conservatives somewhere.

02:49:03.520 I'm seeing a different reports.

02:49:05.580 NDP, 17, 18, Bloc Quebec, 25.

02:49:10.720 Well, we're definitely seeing a good early Liberal lead.

02:49:13.180 Like they really need some of those swing ridings out in the West.

02:49:16.380 And that's where, you know, for a change in some senses,

02:49:19.020 Alberta might become a bit of a player here. 1.00

02:49:20.700 We've got actually a lot more hanging in those urban ridings

02:49:23.340 than people realize.

02:49:25.060 Calgary Centre, Calgary Skyview, Confederation,

02:49:28.480 Edmonton has a number of ridings, again,

02:49:30.620 that could very easily swing to the Liberals.

02:49:33.480 So the Conservatives have really, at this point,

02:49:35.780 they'll got to hope to see a strong Western breakthrough

02:49:38.400 as those votes start coming in.

02:49:40.220 Well, and one of the other things,

02:49:41.820 just to touch on the Ontario side of this,

02:49:43.720 and again, not to sound like a broken record,

02:49:45.940 but I mean, it really is important.

02:49:48.080 You know, these PPC numbers in Ontario as this night drags on

02:49:51.960 really could become the problem that we touched on in the beginning of the night.

02:49:56.220 And that's because if you have Liberals and Conservatives with a 5,000 vote spread

02:50:03.220 over the course of Ontario in the early vote counts,

02:50:06.500 the last thing you want is for a large critical mass of Conservative Party voters

02:50:11.580 to abandon the Conservatives and go to the PPC,

02:50:16.820 and then you end up electing a whole bunch of Liberals all over Ontario.

02:50:20.580 Now, as a Liberal, obviously they would love that because that makes their job winning that much easier and it could potentially pave a roadmap for a Liberal majority government.

02:50:35.540 Just an early look at Calgary Centre, one poll in incumbent Greg McLean leading with 50% of the vote ahead of the Liberal, Sabrina Grover, who you remember had two campaign workers attacked in Calgary and spit upon and took some abuse.

02:50:58.580 So that's only one poll reporting though.

02:51:00.820 So, yeah, this has been just such a polarizing, heated campaign.

02:51:06.920 I mean, we've really seen some upset people.

02:51:11.020 You know, that's something we haven't really talked about tonight.

02:51:13.760 The vitriol, the stuff going on, the protests dogging Trudeau.

02:51:20.480 If anything, I believe it gave even a little bit of sympathy to them, to the liberals, because these weren't, I mean, you got the right to protest.

02:51:29.440 But the screaming, the giving the finger, the swearing, the throwing rocks, I mean, it makes the opposition to Trudeau look insane.

02:51:35.300 And this does not help, you know, build a rational case to not vote liberal.

02:51:41.780 I think some of that vitriolic response backfired for those who really want liberals gone.

02:51:46.460 Well, look, I agree with you.

02:51:48.500 And, you know, one of the other things we saw occur in this campaign is not just the heightened sense of the rhetoric,

02:51:56.220 But in some cases, you know, all like not quite, but almost calls for violence in the sense that, you know, you had candidates for this particular political party that were hinting at public hangings of our political leaders.

02:52:16.060 I mean, just completely unacceptable behavior and unacceptable language.

02:52:21.920 And so, you know, it has revealed sort of an ugly, seedy side of a small percentage of Canadians.

02:52:32.920 And I do think that that kind of thing has helped generate a sympathy vote for the current prime minister.

02:52:41.780 Because, look, if it was a conservative prime minister, I think it would have the same effect as well.

02:52:46.760 I don't think Canadians want to see our elected leaders being pelted out with gravel or rocks or, you know, having their vehicles surrounded and rocked and this kind of thing.

02:52:59.600 No, it's intolerable all over the place. 1.00

02:53:01.740 Plus, I mean, Maxime Bernier got hit by an egg as well by some idiot. 0.99

02:53:06.100 That just didn't get as much coverage because it was a further out party. 0.99

02:53:09.340 But it shows that polarization.

02:53:10.280 and you're going to say something?

02:53:12.180 Yeah, there's definitely a lot of anger out there.

02:53:16.140 It's never something you want to see when somebody resorts to violence.

02:53:20.400 Obviously, and sympathy is a real thing in any election campaign.

02:53:26.680 Going even back to the prime ministership of Pierre Trudeau,

02:53:30.520 of course, Justin's father, who was pelted by rocks during a parade during the,

02:53:37.160 I think it was the night before the 1969 election.

02:53:39.520 Of course, Pierre Sr. would win a majority there.

02:53:44.660 Yeah, I believe it was the Saint-Jean-Baptiste day in Quebec

02:53:47.760 where he got pelted with those rocks.

02:53:49.680 That's right, I forgot about that.

02:53:51.460 Yeah, so there's definitely some parallels there.

02:53:55.320 Obviously, the separatists in Quebec were very, very angry.

02:53:59.580 I think there's a certain element of anger with the undercurrent

02:54:05.160 that's driving the purple wave.

02:54:06.800 People are definitely reacting emotionally given the polarization that COVID has brought

02:54:16.400 and how essentially all four of the major parties that are in contention

02:54:22.540 to really hold the balance of power in Parliament have the same policies regarding COVID.

02:54:29.980 So, but I don't know if it's going to translate to too many sympathy votes for Trudeau.

02:54:37.700 The difference between 1969 and today, of course, is that Pierre Trudeau was new to the leadership of the Liberal Party and Justin has been around for seven years.

02:54:49.220 We've seen him cry about 400 times.

02:54:51.880 So I don't know how much sympathy he's going to get from the general electorate on that.

02:54:56.180 And, you know, but to me, just one of the real worrisome issues in this case is so if we just we if we draw the comparison and for the record, it's unacceptable that someone hit Mr.

02:55:10.360 Bernier with an egg. And it is unacceptable.

02:55:14.420 The difference in this case between these two sets of events that we're describing, as far as we know at the present time, the individual who acted inappropriately and in an absolutely wrongheaded way by pelting him with an egg, as far as we know, that individual wasn't an active member of a party.

02:55:35.460 know if if he was um i'm happy to be corrected on that the difference in this case is that we

02:55:41.220 actually have ppc candidates uh calling for public hangings we have another ppc candidate

02:55:48.260 referencing the nuremberg trials um we had a former ppc riding executive

02:55:59.140 um who's recently been removed from the party you know throwing rocks and gravel

02:56:05.380 um we have the leader of that party himself um you know actually referencing the words weapons

02:56:14.500 uh in some of his speeches and open calls for revolution and so uh there is kind of a a

02:56:23.940 heightened sense of rhetoric uh amongst that uh you know this political group and uh look i i think

02:56:33.620 the ppc is a is in some ways it's a cult of personality because it's a party that doesn't

02:56:39.780 have a national council governing it it doesn't have an official money fund on managing its

02:56:46.020 donations it doesn't have a leadership review process and it doesn't have a voter member and

02:56:53.060 and created a voted member constitution and then when we look at the leader of this party

02:57:01.140 they lost in the 2019 federal election and uh you know the same person ran in a by-election

02:57:08.260 in ontario last year he got maybe two three hundred votes and uh he's most likely going

02:57:14.980 to go down to defeat again tonight so perhaps uh you know this might be the beginning of the end of

02:57:21.060 of the PPC, assuming that Mr. Bernier goes down to defeat.

02:57:24.860 Because I believe over time, as the vaccination rates start to rise,

02:57:30.920 hopefully if we can put COVID behind us, then the issue that's giving

02:57:36.420 that party oxygen is going to disappear.

02:57:39.760 Yeah, well, and I don't think we can dismiss, though, the anger and the feeling

02:57:44.680 on the part of the people that have been taking part in those protests,

02:57:47.840 The people who feel cornered, they feel they have no other outlet.

02:57:51.460 They don't trust the system.

02:57:53.140 I think one of the worst things that could happen is we get a bunch of ridings decided by the mail-in ballots

02:57:57.500 because some people are really not going to trust those results and they're going to be very distressed afterwards.

02:58:04.360 But there's been a lot of, and it's been political play.

02:58:07.640 I mean, this is a significant number of people.

02:58:10.320 This is millions of people actually who are now backing that area.

02:58:13.680 and they are being treated with a lot of disrespect and scorn when it'd be any other

02:58:19.580 kind of minority even if the majority doesn't agree with it they wouldn't be as as to be blunt

02:58:24.500 pissed on as as people concerned about the restrictions about the vaccinations and other

02:58:29.280 such things i just got a feeling the inflammation has been coming from both sides and it's leading

02:58:34.120 to an ugly polarization that we might pay a terrible price for over the long run well look

02:58:39.060 I actually think that all of us that that are on programs like this are

02:58:44.060 elected politicians.

02:58:46.060 I think there is a potential problem that's going to develop over the coming

02:58:50.700 days. And that's the ballots, the mail-in ballot issue.

02:58:54.540 And I think it is very important for everyone that understands how the process

02:58:58.760 works,

02:58:59.160 actually explains it to those who are suspicious of how votes are counted in

02:59:04.940 Canada in general elections.

02:59:06.240 we all know that there's a representative from each political party there they call them a

02:59:12.180 a scrutineer and then there is a returning officer from Elections Canada and each representative of

02:59:20.680 a party in a particular riding signs off on this is how many ballots were counted and who received

02:59:26.760 what votes and so I do think that there's a responsibility on all of our parts on all of us

02:59:33.660 to explain to those that are you know prepared to do potentially dangerous things because they

02:59:43.820 don't understand how ballots are counted all right well let's go back to the map and Clinton

02:59:50.380 we'll come back to you in a little while thanks again for the input and update we'll see where

02:59:55.100 our numbers at now they're all starting to come in and we're going to come back with Vitor Marciano

02:59:59.340 shortly here as well so uh if we could pull up the map and uh we'll start we'll start in quebec

03:00:07.100 again uh remember we've got uh 30 sorry 78 seats up for grabs in quebec uh right now the bloc

03:00:16.460 quebecois leading or elected in 28 conservatives nine the liberals 34 and the new democrats

03:00:25.500 in three it's only about seven and a half percent of the ballots counted at

03:00:33.060 the moment and for those interested in the PPC they're bringing in about two

03:00:39.480 point seven percent of the votes so not what they would have hoped for moving to

03:00:45.060 Ontario where you've got a hundred and twenty-one seats up for grabs the

03:00:49.920 Liberals 75 leading or elected, the Conservatives 33, New Democratic Party 10.

03:01:00.140 Just so you know, a disillusion, the Liberals had 79 seats there,

03:01:05.940 so they're down a handful now, but only 6% of polls reporting.

03:01:11.860 Moving to Alberta, the Conservatives leading and elected in 29 seats,

03:01:17.960 the Liberals 2 and the New Democrats 2. Early days in Alberta, 3.5% of the polls reporting.

03:01:27.300 In British Columbia, only 1.6% of the polls in, and it's got the Liberals with six seats

03:01:36.960 and the Conservatives with three, the NDP party with four. What that means nationally is you're

03:01:45.040 looking at 147 Liberals elected and leading, 103 for the Conservatives, 27 for the BQ,

03:01:55.360 the NDP is leading in 23, or other is one. Maybe the PPC is leading somewhere, or the Greens.

03:02:06.700 Yeah, the Greens, I believe, are leading in Kitchener, actually. That's an interesting

03:02:12.580 interesting one right there. I believe that, unless I'm mistaken, that is a constituency where

03:02:18.500 the Liberal candidate was forced to step down, but was already locked onto the ballot. It could

03:02:26.640 be changed in time with Elections Canada. So the Liberal is on the ballot, but says he's not

03:02:31.460 running anymore. And so as a result, the Green candidate is leading there with about 36% of the

03:02:38.360 vote when I checked. Let's quickly check in. Do you know if it's Kitchener Centre or Kitchener South?

03:02:43.160 Try Kitchener Centre. Let's look at Kitchener Centre. Kitchener Centre in fact has the Green

03:02:49.840 Party ahead. Yeah, Mike Maurice, the candidate there. Only two polls reporting, so I'm not sure

03:02:57.000 how much we can read into that. Calgary Skyview, the Conservative Jag Sohota is leading former

03:03:04.840 City Councillor George Sahal after two polls with 40% of the vote and Calgary

03:03:11.660 Centre Greg McLean comfortably ahead. So we're gonna go to Vitor Marciano

03:03:17.020 right now but while we do that if production wants to try to rig up so

03:03:23.600 that Dave can have the map up on his screen so we can we can share his

03:03:30.500 screen up when he's going through the results. Vitor, right now we're seeing, I mean, if these

03:03:38.360 numbers hold, the Liberals are not far from a majority. Is it 155 for a majority or what is it

03:03:46.840 for majority? 170. It's 170 and they're not going to get there. Okay. Either way, they're in strong

03:03:53.060 minority government territory already. Yes, but it's ridiculously early and you're falling into

03:03:59.440 the trap that the cbc is doing and frankly i don't want you to do that uh granted there aren't that

03:04:04.960 many people watching in ontario the reason rosie barton's doing it on the cbc is because there are 0.59

03:04:09.200 people still in line waiting to vote in places like kingston and york and places like that and

03:04:15.760 you know the cbc is projecting a liberal government it's still too early uh half of the global news

03:04:20.880 also just uh called a liberal government uh yeah they haven't said it's a majority or not

03:04:27.600 uh you are quite correct to point out there is a lot still coming these are some of these are

03:04:33.120 one pole two poles out you can't read a lot into it that is unless it's uh like you know if when

03:04:39.440 a single pole opens up in crowfoot uh uh battle river crowfoot or something we can call that for

03:04:45.440 the conservatives because we just know what it is you don't even have to open a pole so you know

03:04:49.360 some of these writings you can uh but it it's a bit stuff actually let's bring that's one down

03:04:54.160 for now we don't have a proper map uh but where do you think this is going vitor well listen

03:04:59.680 10 15 minutes ago it was 130 to 60 now it's 146 to 105 or thereabouts uh 145 to 99 uh cbc's now

03:05:08.400 got conservatives at 105. um these are all the very very early results they really don't mean

03:05:15.280 anything unless you know where they're coming in from uh in atlantic canada the liberals didn't

03:05:19.680 have a great day it's too early to tell how they're doing in quebec or how they're doing in ontario

03:05:27.440 um you know i don't you know i don't believe that there's enough results yet in to tell how it'll

03:05:33.920 happen now are the liberals probably going to get the most seats yeah i think everybody uh knew that

03:05:41.040 if the liberals weren't going to get the most seats it was because they're going to be 30 or

03:05:44.640 40 extremely close ridings and frankly we wouldn't know until tomorrow um but the most seats are

03:05:51.040 probably going to be somewhere south of 145. um you know there's there's a lot of seats that

03:05:57.040 they're leading in that they're not going to win uh there's a lot of seats that the conservatives

03:06:01.200 aren't leading in yet that they have a good shot at winning i mean the alternative if you're if

03:06:05.840 you're thinking that way it's you know you're you're missing it there's still a lot of seats

03:06:10.480 that aren't reporting at all um you know the new democrats only have one person declared elected so

03:06:16.560 far so we take out the leadings when you take out the leadings and you go to elected on the seats

03:06:22.240 that we know it's roughly 27 for the liberals 24 for the conservatives seven for the bloc one for

03:06:27.600 the new democrats thereabouts it's going to go up and down by one or two over the next little bit

03:06:31.920 uh this is a close election i mean it's we knew it was going to be a close election um

03:06:38.160 Um, it's still very much up in the air. I think you can project that the liberals are going to

03:06:45.680 have the most seats, maybe still even a little too early to do that. I'd want to see another

03:06:51.280 half hour's worth of results come in. I mean, you know, basically the projection is coming in on

03:06:56.380 about 1.5 million seats. I mean, there's 1.1 million, 1.5 million votes. There's 1.1 million

03:07:03.780 votes to be counted in ottawa tomorrow so there's still so much counting to do that you can't make

03:07:09.860 these projections so many of these seats not how to had enough polls that you could extrapolate

03:07:14.900 that i mean once you get to 10 of a writing voting and somebody's got a clear lead yeah

03:07:19.460 you can project that nothing strange should happen with the rest of the writing but it's it's it's

03:07:25.220 too early uh i think there's every reason to believe that the liberals are probably going

03:07:30.740 going to end up in the 137 138 range and the conservatives are going to be in the mid 120s

03:07:37.940 that's a reasonable projection with what we see right now um this is going to be an election

03:07:46.380 that was largely for naught uh even as we sit right now uh justin trudeau's 11 seats back

03:07:53.500 from 12 seats back from where he was after the last election.

03:07:59.720 And it's, you know, the places that are left to report

03:08:04.340 are unlikely to deliver him even those 12 seats.

03:08:09.980 Yeah, I'm inclined to agree that the liberals are probably headed for another minority.

03:08:15.320 On this track, I think they're actually headed to pick up some seats.

03:08:18.860 I predicted they would probably shed a few seats, probably mostly at the expense of the Block and NDP would pick up a couple of Liberal seats.

03:08:33.880 But I thought the Liberals would still squeak through.

03:08:36.960 But it looks so far, again, your Vitor asteris is accepted.

03:08:44.900 The Liberals look set to pick up some seats.

03:08:46.560 Let's bring it home to Alberta, though, here.

03:08:48.860 Let's get Dave's map up on the screen.

03:08:53.440 Let's pull up Dave's map here.

03:08:57.120 Oh, okay, sorry.

03:08:58.400 One second here.

03:08:59.120 We're going to get Dave's map up on the screen,

03:09:00.420 but there's some very interesting results in rural Alberta.

03:09:05.400 It's not changing anything in terms of who's actually going to get elected,

03:09:08.900 but there is a not insignificant number of seats I'm seeing in rural Alberta,

03:09:13.880 at rural Saskatchewan while the PPC is running second or sometimes third.

03:09:20.180 They're quite distant seconds and thirds, but, I mean, we could look at Battle River Crowfoot,

03:09:27.120 Bow River in Alberta.

03:09:29.720 We can look at the Cypress Hills area in Saskatchewan.

03:09:36.320 Do we have, yeah, let's pull up Dave's screen now.

03:09:39.400 Do we have, there it is.

03:09:41.280 See that for a second.

03:09:43.880 So let's look at some of these results.

03:09:46.040 Medicine Hat, Cardston Warner.

03:09:48.500 We've got, so the PPC is in third.

03:09:51.480 Again, these are distant seconds and distant thirds,

03:09:54.420 understanding what it is.

03:09:56.100 Bow River, PPC in second.

03:09:59.940 Let's see, Foothills.

03:10:03.160 PPC in third.

03:10:05.140 In Saskatchewan, we're going to go to Cypress Hills Grasslands.

03:10:10.420 uh ppc in third okay uh so vtor obviously this is not going to change any um actual results uh

03:10:22.780 let's go back to to vtor on the screen uh this is not going to change anything in terms of the

03:10:26.860 results um but is this something for the conservatives to take notice of beyond a shrug

03:10:33.720 um in most of rural alberta it's a shrug because they can hold it uh it's you know in lots of

03:10:39.760 places i'm looking at banff airdrie right now the ppc is fourth um it's a shrug but the when when

03:10:47.640 the dust settles out tomorrow uh you know it won't be a shrug because uh the liberals may end up

03:10:55.540 winning edmonton center because of the ppc vote uh the you know edmonton greece spot right now

03:11:03.140 well it's still really early on in 15 polls dejaulet is ahead of carrie diont but it's just

03:11:08.300 super super early um the in edmonton center with uh 20 polls counted james cummings a little bit

03:11:17.580 ahead he he should be okay but the part that scares me is brock crocker for the people's party

03:11:23.100 he's got he's sitting at four percent with about ten percent of the polls counted if he stays at

03:11:27.820 four percent randy bossano has a shot at uh at winning that election when the uh when the votes

03:11:34.620 come in um it's it's yeah the ppc might end up being a spoiler right now it doesn't look too bad

03:11:43.500 edmonton millwoods uh you know very few polls in but tim upple's in good shape

03:11:48.860 uh on the very few polls that came in early um ultimately so far the ppc in alberta isn't

03:11:56.780 making a big impact um but there are six seats in alberta where they could end up making a big impact

03:12:03.820 um i think if you go to your tally now we should be getting closer to you know 145 to pushing 120

03:12:10.700 for the conservatives let's uh let's bring up the map again and we got the map here i can tell you

03:12:21.340 the national well let's zoom out i want to see it with the counter here here we are zoom out

03:12:33.820 Okay. All right, we'll not use this one for now.

03:12:38.900 Okay, let's just go back to Vitor.

03:12:40.940 Actually, Dave, give us an update first.

03:12:44.520 I've got the numbers here.

03:12:46.860 Nationally, you're looking at 145 for the Liberals,

03:12:50.940 117 for the Conservatives, 29 for the Bloc,

03:12:54.760 26 NDP, two others.

03:12:58.720 So that's 319 writings reporting out of 338.

03:13:03.820 So we've got about 20 more ridings to go.

03:13:06.760 The Liberals, some of the ones that they're in the lead on, they won't be in the lead on.

03:13:10.640 If they swept the 20 ridings to go, they'd still be short of a majority.

03:13:14.600 They're going to actually lose some of the seats that they're ahead on right now.

03:13:20.560 You know, Derek, I still hold that the Liberals are headed, you know, I guess, depending on what happens tomorrow in the votes that get counted in Ottawa.

03:13:29.100 but if i had to predict right now the liberals are in the 136 to 142 range probably you know i i call

03:13:36.860 it at 138 and the conservatives therefore are uh about 126 127. um the part that's surprising to

03:13:46.780 me right now is you know what happens with the missing seats so far you know that so far the

03:13:51.180 new democrats are underperforming um and the bloc quebecois is underperforming so but it's still

03:13:58.540 ridiculously early i mean we're still at the you know we haven't counted 3 million ballots yet

03:14:04.780 5 million canadians 5.5 million canadians voted in the advanced polls we haven't counted 3 million

03:14:10.940 ballots yet and you know that's why i think you know cbc and global projecting a liberal government

03:14:18.380 they're they're kind of jumping the gun here i mean you know uh when we go to a writing like

03:14:23.180 edmonton center that i know really well i know a poll by poll straight by street

03:14:28.460 it's still too early to say that you know with 10 of the polls in you know uh james cummings is

03:14:35.260 doing okay but i wouldn't you know without knowing exactly which polls they are i wouldn't know how

03:14:41.020 to interpret that result um it's it's it's still it's still too early to call the liberals will

03:14:49.420 probably have the most seats but it isn't a certainty yet that they will the uh the block

03:14:56.380 and the ndp are certainly underperforming most polls most polls uh i mean on on a really good

03:15:03.740 day today based on the numbers if the splits broke the their way the ndp were looking at

03:15:10.140 up to 40 seats which is about as good as they can do uh with the exception of that one big orange 1.00

03:15:17.180 wave in Jack Leighton's last election.

03:15:21.860 The Bloc also certainly underperforming.

03:15:24.900 They got all upset when it was mentioned in the English language debate that it's just

03:15:29.520 possible Quebec could be as racist as the rest of us.

03:15:33.960 That's not kosher stuff and that became a really big part of the debate there.

03:15:39.420 Vitor, I suppose you really have to bite them off piece by piece, the Bloc and NDP are such

03:15:44.360 different creatures uh but they're both underperforming and it appears to be to the

03:15:50.000 benefit of the liberals and and part that's why i say it's still really early because i don't

03:15:57.060 believe that the ndp only pulled out 16.3 percent of the popular vote and that's what they're sitting

03:16:02.040 at right now i mean 16 is what they got last time every pollster every poll every projection had

03:16:09.060 them doing better so i still believe that this is the result of early counts um the block at 6.8

03:16:15.520 that's within the range conceivably of where the polls had them the polls had them at 7.6 7.8

03:16:21.640 some of them had them over eight which is you know a big number in quebec um right now the liberals

03:16:29.320 are winning in the popular vote and i do not believe that that will hold i mean um i think

03:16:37.420 that this is a function of the fact that we're still, again, like I said, now we're getting

03:16:42.640 closer to 3 million votes counted. Again, 5.5 million Canadians voted in the advance

03:16:47.760 poll. So this next half hour will make the difference. I think the Liberals are going

03:16:52.660 to get the most seats. But I'm going to point out to you that right now, assuming that they

03:17:00.020 don't lose any of what they have and they don't pick anything up, I guess they could

03:17:06.400 govern with the NDP, that the liberals and the NDP combined would be 176. So they could actually

03:17:12.360 pass legislation with just the NDP. But if they start slipping a little bit, and if those slips

03:17:19.080 happen to the conservatives, then this becomes a different game. Now, the other thing to look at is

03:17:26.620 actually declared elected. If you go to just declared elected, the conservatives are ahead.

03:17:30.940 The conservatives have been declared elected. CBC is declaring 49 conservatives elected to 39 liberals elected.

03:17:39.300 So, you know, on the seats, taking away the seats that are still in play, the conservatives are doing OK.

03:17:45.840 That's not a surprise. There's lots of places where, you know, like you said, when when Crowfoot starts counting,

03:17:51.100 if the first three polls come in and there's no surprises, you know, there's not going to be any surprises in Crowfoot.

03:17:55.260 But, you know, I just look now, CBC has just, you know, CBC has now just moved the Conservatives into the 120 range.

03:18:04.100 You guys have them at 117.

03:18:05.700 That will change in, you know, the next few minutes.

03:18:09.160 Right now, Aaron O'Toole is headed in the direction of at least holding what the Conservatives had.

03:18:15.160 And I think there's every reason to believe that they're still picking up a few more.

03:18:18.100 I want to turn briefly to, let's just say the two, maybe could, let's see if they could possibly win their seats leaders.

03:18:34.400 We're going to start with Anime Paul.

03:18:35.700 Let's bring up the map, Dave's map here.

03:18:39.860 If we're looking at Toronto Centre here, there is only five of 137 polls reporting.

03:18:45.860 that's just 1,404 votes. Keep in mind, as Vitor said, you have to know where the votes are coming

03:18:53.040 from in a constituency. Certain streets will vote certain ways, and different streets will vote

03:18:57.680 others. But the early results coming out of that constituency have Green leader Anna Mae Paul in

03:19:04.040 fourth place behind the Liberals, the NDP, the Conservatives, and then of course her as the

03:19:11.400 Greens at 8.3%. It's obviously still very early to call that one. A very long way to

03:19:20.280 go. We're going to go in now to Bose, if we could just find that there. We're going to

03:19:26.020 bring up Bose. That is the constituency of PPC leader Maxime Bernier. A fair number of

03:19:32.880 polls voting, a long way to go, but not a very good trend for the PPC leader. 45 of

03:19:38.940 272 polls

03:19:40.520 reporting. Incumbent

03:19:42.980 Conservative Richard

03:19:44.340 Leroux

03:19:45.760 leading significantly with 48.4%

03:19:50.060 of the vote.

03:19:51.140 Maxime Bernier in second, but with

03:19:53.000 just 18% of the vote.

03:19:56.240 He's not yet been...

03:19:58.040 Some of the networks I'm seeing

03:19:58.980 are not yet declaring...

03:20:00.320 CBC has declared that one?

03:20:02.180 I believe CBC has.

03:20:03.800 Vitor, your thoughts on both of

03:20:05.920 these constituencies?

03:20:07.100 uh surprised with one not surprised with the other uh i'm sure quebecers were insulted 0.78

03:20:13.560 about maxine being in saskatoon today rather than being elsewhere so you know it's going to be one

03:20:19.420 of those things um uh with enemy paul really kind of shocked with that derek i'm going to see you in

03:20:25.480 an hour okay very good thank you very much for your time we'll see him again soon i think uh

03:20:33.000 we're Franco next? Okay, well, we're back to Franco Tarrazone with the Canadian Taxpayers

03:20:38.280 Federation. Before we go to Franco, though, let's get a general update of the board

03:20:42.120 from our news editor, Dave Naylor. Okay, let's start in British Columbia and work our way east

03:20:49.800 this time. Liberals and Tories basically tied. Liberals have 13 seats. Conservatives have 12

03:21:01.240 seats. The NDP seven. Alberta we've got the Tories leading in 32 seats. Liberals not leading in any

03:21:12.000 and the New Democrats leading in two. The key battleground obviously being Ontario as we all

03:21:19.620 know. Liberals leading or elected in 74. Conservatives 37. NDP nine. And in Quebec

03:21:29.300 We've got the Bloc with 28 seats, Conservatives 11 seats, the Liberals with 37, and the New

03:21:40.920 Democratic Party with two.

03:21:43.640 So what that means nationally is Liberals leading and elected in 152, Conservatives

03:21:50.780 121, Bloc 29, NDP 3, and others 3.

03:21:59.300 Okay, thank you for the update. We're going to go now to Franco Tarzan with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. Franco, I know policy pays a big role in campaigns, and I know you're a policy guy, you're less of the operational politics in terms of your field, but there's going to be a big impact.

03:22:23.880 I don't know. It looks to me, I'm a bit more pessimistic than Vitor Marciano is.

03:22:30.600 I think it's in the bag for the littles at this point.

03:22:34.120 The conservatives have to, there is no such thing as a conservative minority government unless they have a very decisive plurality of deeds.

03:22:43.400 I'd be quite shocked if they catch up.

03:22:46.420 Of course, some of these things can flip.

03:22:47.920 mail-in ballots though look i mean the conventional wisdom is not always wrong and in this i accept

03:22:54.700 the conventional wisdom that convention uh that the mail-in ballots are going to favor new democrats

03:22:58.400 and liberals those are going to be voters who are scared stiff of covid and uh can't leave

03:23:03.900 obviously not entirely but are predominantly voters who uh feel they can't leave their house

03:23:10.400 to vote, at least in many of those cases. What's this looking like for you?

03:23:17.260 Well, okay, there's two things that we need to talk about. One is if these results hold,

03:23:23.540 what would it look for Canada's finances? So let's start there. I mean, first, this would be

03:23:28.400 hugely expensive, right? Let's look at the Trudeau government's track record heading into this

03:23:33.320 election. They put out a budget in April, which would nearly double the pre-pandemic debt in six

03:23:40.360 years, the Trudeau government put us on a trajectory where we wouldn't see a balanced

03:23:44.240 budget until 2070, right? In the meantime, we would rack up close to $4 trillion just in interest

03:23:51.380 charges on the debt. That's trillions of dollars over those decades that can't go to healthcare,

03:23:56.080 that can't stay in our pockets through lower taxes, because that would be going to the bond 0.85

03:24:00.180 fund managers on Bay Street. Now we're hearing the Trudeau liberals promising $78 billion in

03:24:07.120 additional spending on top of that. So, I mean, hugely expensive to taxpayers. And look, I think

03:24:13.560 we also have to bring up an important fact here. If these results hold, if the O'Toole Conservatives

03:24:19.060 lose, they will have loss after flip-flopping on key issues for taxpayers. Indeed. Now, Franco,

03:24:30.360 I know one of the great traditions of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation is the day after the election,

03:24:35.860 I'm sure you and your staff in the office there are busy right now calculating the pension

03:24:42.900 eligibility of defeated and retiring members of parliament, if you haven't already done it and

03:24:48.220 just put them all in the bag. Can we expect those numbers as per your tradition tomorrow?

03:24:55.840 Oh, well, stay tuned for that. We're definitely going to be releasing them relatively soon. I can't

03:25:00.660 you the exact date but yep we'll have uh mp pension calculations and severance checks rolling out as

03:25:06.340 that is outrageous franco when i was there i had it done that night i'd be on don martin the next

03:25:12.900 day with the numbers in my hand you gotta you're running a sloppy operation you're you're a man of

03:25:17.780 efficiency my friend that's what i can say there uh so if these numbers hold up uh it looks like

03:25:24.260 another probably liberal minority government probably a strengthened liberal minority government

03:25:30.100 uh again these numbers could still fluctuate quite a bit but even if they go up or down

03:25:34.420 uh that appears to be what we're likely looking at um what what can we expect from the canadian

03:25:41.060 taxpayers federation um over probably the next two years of a minority government what would be

03:25:46.980 you're going to keep holding them accountable uh for the massive amounts of spending and i think

03:25:51.460 really the key issue uh for taxpayers right now is is the government debt right the federal

03:25:55.860 government is already more than a trillion dollars in debt which means that each canadian is on the

03:25:59.620 the hook for about $30,000 in federal government debt alone. But, you know, I referenced the fact

03:26:05.080 that under the Trudeau government current trajectory, but even before this election and

03:26:09.360 all the massive spending that we wouldn't see a balanced budget until 2070. Well, if that were to

03:26:14.700 happen, then per person federal debt in Canada would balloon to $67,000, which would be just a

03:26:21.460 massive bill for Canadians, kids and grandkids to pay back. So I really do think the key issue

03:26:27.120 for taxpayers is going to be the government debt is going to be the billions of dollars that we're

03:26:31.760 losing every single year to the bond fund managers just in interest charges uh so i think that's

03:26:36.660 going to have to be the key issue for canadian taxpayers to really push back on uh so regarding

03:26:42.440 spending you keep you mentioned the liberals really expensive platform now it looks like

03:26:48.700 they're headed into a minority government potentially propped up by the ndp do you think

03:26:53.460 that your estimates or that wouldn't be your parliamentary budget offices estimates are on

03:26:59.000 the low end given the fact that the NDP could be holding the balance of power? Well I think that's

03:27:05.780 a great point because remember during this election the NDP are saying they would want to spend more

03:27:11.980 than 200 billion dollars on top of the last Liberal government's budget which was just massive

03:27:17.040 spending and you know what Josh I think you bring up a good point because when you look at that PBO

03:27:21.780 data that was forecasting deficits for five decades um that was still assuming steady economic growth

03:27:28.580 that was still assuming relatively low interest rates well what if reality isn't that rosy

03:27:33.460 what if canada stumbles into another economic downturn what if interest rates spike i think

03:27:38.180 that would be a huge a huge huge concern for for our federal government finances which are already

03:27:43.860 in shambles okay uh franco thank you very much we're going to come back to you soon very soon

03:27:51.060 We're going to have a PPC candidate from Airdrie, Banff, Nadine, Wellwood up.

03:27:56.840 But before that, we're going to go to Jonathan Dennis, one of our guests, the former Minister

03:28:05.160 of Justice and Solicitor General of Alberta, coming to us from at least one of the Conservative

03:28:10.640 campaign headquarters in Calgary here.

03:28:15.560 Let's bring Jonathan Dennis up.

03:28:20.040 There.

03:28:20.520 Okay, thank you. We're going to come back to you soon. Jonathan, how are things over there?

03:28:25.660 Well, so I've retreated back to my house just west of town, but you've looked here after Franco. It's a really tough act to follow.

03:28:33.500 Well, you're before me.

03:28:35.100 There you go. There you go. I'm going to tell you the big surprise tonight in Alberta, though, is Everton-Greisbaugh.

03:28:40.600 I'm looking right now, 42% for the NDP, 33% for my friend Kerry Niaud.

03:28:46.420 It's very clear to me that the NDP are seeking to expand their base in Edmonton.

03:28:50.860 They played the two election strategy against Raheem Jaffer in 2006, beat him in 2008,

03:28:57.960 and they've held the riding ever since.

03:29:00.400 I'm hoping that I'm wrong, but I think Kerry's in a bit of trouble tonight.

03:29:05.260 Well, you know, I hope so.

03:29:08.060 I mean, I think there's a lot of useless MPs in all the parties, but I actually like Kerry.

03:29:12.640 I think he's been solid.

03:29:15.040 Let's see.

03:29:15.580 Yeah, so there's only 40 of 232 polls reporting in Edmonton-Greisbaugh.

03:29:20.040 Still a lot of time for him to make that up, but he is down by exactly 10 points right now, 5,205 votes in in Edmonton-Greisbaugh.

03:29:31.500 It's going to be tight.

03:29:32.560 I know the NDP have really focused on that as an offensive operation.

03:29:38.120 They've been confident in holding Edmonton-Stratkona, which has really been, I mean, if there is a single left-leaning federal seat in El Paso,

03:29:45.580 Alberta. It's been largely Edmonton, Strathcona. But Edmonton, Grisbach, they've really gone

03:29:52.040 after that one. Kerry Diot is, I mean, I don't even think the guy's a red Tory. He's actually

03:29:58.300 a pretty solid true blue conservative. He's not an Aaron O'Toole true blue. He actually

03:30:04.020 does seem to hold to it. So the Edmonton really have made an effort going after him. Jonathan,

03:30:10.040 what's your take on how some of these tighter inner city Calgary races are going?

03:30:14.380 Okay, so my friend Greg McClain, I was working on his campaign today. He's running away with it. He's a very likable guy. He's a good guy for the ride. He's a little redder than me and probably of you as well. He represents the riding well. He works really hard. Intelligent guy. Calgary Skyview, it looks like Jag Sahota is running away with it as well.

03:30:31.060 I long predicted that the moniker of Trudeau Liberal in Calgary was not going to do well for George Chahal.

03:30:37.360 He had endorsements from people like Jeff Davison, Drew Farrell, Ward Sutherland.

03:30:41.100 That didn't bear fruit for him, trying to unite the left there.

03:30:44.360 I don't see him succeeding here as well.

03:30:47.280 Edmonton Centre is going to James Cumming, it looks like.

03:30:50.040 The only two races really to watch in Alberta are Edmund Strathcona.

03:30:54.940 That's going to the NDP.

03:30:56.300 Edmonton-Greesbaugh, too soon to tell.

03:30:58.900 I'm looking nationally, though, and I'll say this, is that the benchmark for Aaron O'Toole

03:31:05.300 is 130 seats. That's the amount of seats that Andrew Scheer got in 2019. It does appear that

03:31:13.060 there's going to be a Liberal minority government here, which I fear. The Liberals have a much more

03:31:17.460 efficient vote than the Conservatives do. The PPC may have been a deciding factor in Ontario. It

03:31:23.940 It hasn't been in Alberta because the spread is just so strong.

03:31:27.740 You're going to Ontario.

03:31:29.260 That may cost the Conservatives some seats.

03:31:31.980 It's going to be very interesting to see what happens.

03:31:34.160 But, you know, my eyes tonight are on Carlton.

03:31:36.960 My friend Pierre is doing over 50% and a seventh straight victory.

03:31:41.120 Yeah.

03:31:42.520 Josh Andrus has got a question for you in one second here,

03:31:45.100 but we'll just kind of run through some of the numbers in inner Calgary here.

03:31:49.140 Calgary Centre Greg McLean leading clearly as Jonathan Dennis said 42.9% of the vote well ahead

03:31:56.780 of Suprina Grover of the Liberals at 29.6 although still quite a bit to come in 15 of 228 polls

03:32:04.280 I can't say the number but I believe there was a very significant advance poll in that

03:32:11.460 constituency which is distinctive from the mail-in ballot I don't I think the mail-in ballot will

03:32:16.660 lean towards the leftist parties. Advanced polls, I think, just leans towards the more

03:32:21.600 organized parties, and that could be different parties and different constituencies. Another

03:32:26.760 constituency that the Liberals were targeting, Calgary Confederation, doesn't appear to be in

03:32:32.840 too much trouble yet. Incumbent Conservative Len Weber is leading 45% of the vote with 35 of 260

03:32:44.180 the polls reporting. Josh, let's go to you.

03:32:48.900 Yeah, so you mentioned that you think the Liberals are going to hold on to a minority

03:32:52.600 government. Oh, I'm sorry. We have to, I'm sorry to interrupt. Maxime Bernier is currently

03:32:58.960 speaking to supporters right now. Have we got the feed ready for that? Production, have

03:33:06.340 we got that ready? Almost. I'll put a pin. Okay. We're going to go to Max. Jonathan Dennis,

03:33:16.100 thank you very much. I know we were going to go to Jonathan. Maybe we'll check in with you later

03:33:19.600 tonight if you're available. We appreciate your time. We're going to go to Nadine Wellwood.

03:33:25.700 We'll actually just get some thoughts from her if we pull Nadine in right now. But Nadine, 1.00

03:33:32.760 We're going to go to Max as soon as we have that feed up.

03:33:37.080 Oh, I believe.

03:33:38.000 Here we go.

03:33:38.440 We're going to go to Nadine as soon as we're done hearing from Mr. Bernier.

03:33:48.520 We are standing by to hear from Mr. Bernier in just a second.

03:33:55.480 Jonathan, how quickly do you think George Sahal declares for his old council seat?

03:34:01.260 Well, actually, it's funny you say that, because for him to declare for his council seat, he would have had to file today. There's been no news media to indicate that he did. I would put a spike in his political career at this point.

03:34:18.240 I know the Liberals were very much gunning for that seat.

03:34:21.680 They were.

03:34:22.480 They put everything in there.

03:34:25.180 Where are we at with getting Mr. Bernier up? We're ready to go?

03:34:30.100 Okay, we're going to go to Mr. Bernier speaking to his supporters right now.

03:34:38.100 My friends, today we made history.

03:34:40.100 Let's try to turn it up if we can.

03:34:42.100 Again, when we started, when we started this campaign five weeks ago, everybody thought we would only be...

03:34:53.100 That's a good time. I need to sub.

03:34:55.100 at the beginning the media did not even cover us and then they had to start paying attention

03:35:12.060 yes they have to start paying attention because thousands of canadians were coming to our rallies

03:35:21.580 all across the country everywhere we looked you could see purple a purple wave a sea of purple

03:35:39.980 my friends this is not just a political party it is a movement it is an ideological revolution

03:35:50.300 that we are starting now

03:35:59.740 today over a million canadian said they've had enough enough of this

03:36:08.380 covid hysteria enough of the flattening our rights

03:36:14.140 and freedoms. Enough of the massive spending, deficit and government overreaching. Enough

03:36:24.980 of the lives of establishment politicians. Like me, like me, they are mad. They are mad. 0.97

03:36:35.580 They want to have their normal lives back.

03:36:47.360 They don't want the tyrannical Chinese model that you admire, Mr. Prime Minister. 0.99

03:36:56.580 They don't want that.

03:36:59.820 The other parties are all in favour of lockdowns of vaccine passports and segregation.

03:37:19.580 The other parties are all in favour of a bigger government that increase the debt every day,

03:37:26.900 control your lives and that limit your freedom of expression during the last 19 months it has been

03:37:34.500 quite clear quite clear that our rights and freedoms are threatened if we do nothing to stop

03:37:42.580 this authoritarian drift we can say goodbye to our way of life the people's party of

03:37:50.100 Canada is now the only true opposition party in Canada we will continue to

03:38:03.360 fight for our freedoms outside of Parliament in the street in order to

03:38:08.360 influence public opinion of the order parties will fight for your rights and

03:38:14.100 And that's why today the People's Party has become Canada's only, only real opposition

03:38:23.340 party in Ottawa.

03:38:31.620 The only, the only party that's opposed to all this nonsense that is destroying our society,

03:38:41.600 economy and our country. If we had a proportional voting system, we would have elected about

03:38:55.640 20 MPs today. Unfortunately, we won't be able to carry on this fight in Parliament,

03:39:06.440 But we will continue this battle to unite Canadians under the freedom umbrella.

03:39:16.120 Canadians who oppose the rise of tyranny and authoritarian government need a voice.

03:39:27.980 are going to be that voice all right listening to some of what the People's

03:39:39.140 Party of Canada leader Max Bernier has to say the supporters in his speech

03:39:43.280 tonight People's Party of Canada hasn't won a single seat tonight they've got

03:39:49.340 Dave Coletti you've got more information about exactly how many votes they've

03:39:53.540 garnered so far and what kind of an impact they've made so far we'll will

03:39:58.220 continue to watch they may be making a difference in some seats but certainly

03:40:02.240 not winning any seats tonight and Max Bernier talked about they've collected a

03:40:07.700 million votes we're certainly not seeing yet so he's still got audio okay well

03:40:15.980 that was Maxime Bernier the first leader to come up with a speech in this

03:40:20.540 election that seems to have led nowhere so we do have from the ppc though next nadine wellwood

03:40:27.820 she's been on our show a couple of times before and uh she was running up in banff airdrie

03:40:34.460 so how are you doing tonight nadine i'm doing great you guys how are you

03:40:41.260 good good thanks so i i haven't had a chance to look directly at the numbers out in banff

03:40:45.260 Ferdrie, how are you doing there?

03:40:47.340 Um, we currently sit at 7.6% and of course the conservatives are at 56.4.

03:40:54.620 Um, I think the big surprise probably for most people will be the, um, NDP that are

03:41:01.400 now polling at about 16.8, but, uh, of course there are only 55 of the 300 polls.

03:41:08.600 Uh, so 18.3% in so far.

03:41:11.360 We've been as high as 10.4 this evening, and hopefully it keeps going up.

03:41:19.460 Yeah, well, it's still early in a lot of room for things to change.

03:41:24.220 So maybe I'll just get your thoughts on this general election across the board.

03:41:29.160 I mean, I still think the PPC was impressive.

03:41:31.140 You've really established, made waves, definitely impacted many races and the tone of the election itself.

03:41:38.240 How do you feel about the campaign as a whole?

03:41:40.120 You know, I think as a whole, we have done an amazing campaign, you know, from 1.6% nationally to seeing numbers like 7, 6% in multiple ridings. And, you know, we now are truly a national party and we're getting the right recognition.

03:41:59.980 And Max said it right. He just explained we are really the only opposition left in Canada.

03:42:06.960 And it's going to be nice to have some higher numbers, even if it is just a popular vote, because, you know, we have a lot of Canadians right now that are feeling that there's not a party other than the People's Party of Canada that represent them when it comes to their rights, their freedoms, smaller government, less spending on so many different platform issues.

03:42:29.980 Nadine, Derek Sloan came in with a bang, a big announcement, basically drawn flies tonight.

03:42:39.740 Why was not his campaign received so well? Derek Sloan's from Ontario. Albertans are not going to

03:42:46.220 give their support to somebody from Alberta. And I said that, I said that in my announcement when

03:42:52.940 I made it very clear to Derek to go home. He was wasting his time here. You know, and nobody here

03:42:59.580 in the the west really knows who he is i mean i went door to door just as well as he did

03:43:04.620 and uh we didn't bring up his name but nobody asked either and so many of my friends and

03:43:10.300 colleagues close by who you know we did kind of test the water to see you know well what do you

03:43:16.380 think of derek well who they honestly did not know who he was yeah well in parachuting

03:43:24.140 particularly from ontario into the west when we're a country that's got a lot of regional division

03:43:28.140 going on. I mean, it was just a very bizarre decision on the part of Mr. Sloan. I remembered

03:43:35.320 his kickoff. I mean, he did have some old classic reformers there, Art Hanger and Eric Lowther.

03:43:40.940 Rob Anders.

03:43:41.720 Rob Anders was there. But really, I mean, this hasn't translated any support on the ground.

03:43:46.220 I'd imagine this is probably going to be the end of Derek's career.

03:43:49.540 I suspect so. You know, right now he's here right now at 2.5%.

03:43:57.460 And, you know, I understood before he came to this riding that he was polling at eight percent in his old riding where his wife is currently running this evening.

03:44:11.140 And, you know, I stayed in this riding. This is my home.

03:44:14.620 I didn't just pack up and leave, you know, when I got three point four percent in the last election, you know, because this is my home.

03:44:21.620 Where do you go if you're not willing to stand and defend your home?

03:44:24.380 So I think he hurt himself by packing up and coming to Alberta.

03:44:29.260 But, you know, we reap what we sow sometimes, too.

03:44:33.420 Yeah, well, so going farther forward now, though, you've built a solid base.

03:44:38.300 Definitely a large part of it, though, was cornering the individual freedoms against the restrictions, the vaccinations, the passports, things such as that.

03:44:46.320 We talked a bit with Maxime Bernier when he came on earlier on our show tonight.

03:44:50.940 Where do you go after that, though?

03:44:52.600 like for one that the pandemic is going to go aside I know the need for individual rights won't

03:44:56.180 go away but there won't be that very evident flash point like where are you going to go to

03:45:02.280 maintain or increase those gains that you've made well I think I disagree with you I think they're

03:45:07.340 going to stay and I think especially if we see strong support like what we're seeing right now

03:45:12.420 with the liberals I think you're going to see a lot more people become disenfranchised with

03:45:18.060 these lockdowns. Even people who are double vaccinated are not happy about having to show

03:45:24.800 their papers to go to a restaurant. And what happens when one night you go to a restaurant

03:45:29.580 and you forgot your phone, you know, and you're busy and you forgot your phone and they're like,

03:45:34.140 well, where's your papers? Well, it's on my phone. Well, where's your phone? Well, I forgot it at

03:45:39.460 home. You know, so I think this has got a short lifespan, but I think Canada really is at a

03:45:44.720 crossroads, to be honest. And we're going one of two directions. We are going full-on socialist,

03:45:51.240 you know, the full-on let's, the government has complete control over everything in your life,

03:45:56.500 or more and more people are going to take a harder stance and fight back for their freedoms.

03:46:02.600 And I think that probably within the next, you know, four to six months, I think that's going

03:46:07.100 to be a very telling time for Canada to see which direction that we truly do end up going.

03:46:11.580 okay um you know just uh it's interesting where we've seen some of the smaller parties get a

03:46:21.180 varying levels of support of course um so what do you sort of see for the the ppc or the green party

03:46:28.620 or some of these smaller parties uh in terms of you know say maybe wanting to support uh

03:46:34.620 uh proportional representation we've heard trudeau talk about looking at uh reviewing

03:46:40.540 in the electoral system again, moving away from a first-past-the-post voting system that we have

03:46:46.660 today, more towards maybe that European type of system. Do you have any more comment on

03:46:51.460 if this election may change or cause a bit of a wave of voter sentiment towards a different kind

03:46:58.620 of voting system? Well, I don't think there's any incentive for Justin Trudeau to do any of that.

03:47:03.720 This system works quite well for the Liberal Party. And, you know, he made a lot of promises

03:47:08.180 in 2015 about electoral change, and we're still here in 2021 doing the exact same thing. Why?

03:47:15.080 Because it works for him and it works for his party. So, you know, I don't believe anything

03:47:18.920 that Justin Trudeau has to say with respect to making electoral changes. He's had plenty of

03:47:24.120 opportunity to do that. And in defense of, or to add to that, I have no trust or faith in the

03:47:31.860 Conservative Party of Canada either that is run basically on a liberal platform. Every policy is

03:47:37.900 exactly the same. And they won't push for electoral change either. Because when, you know,

03:47:43.400 they finally find out the formula that works, you know, they're going to want to keep the power as

03:47:47.960 well. I mean, so it's the problem with government that we have, you know, the role of government is

03:47:52.440 polling, you know, they go, they poll, and then they buy the votes. And then they, you know,

03:47:57.100 bicker about who's going to do what. And it's just really, it's about who's going to give more money

03:48:01.120 to whom. So I mean, I think that this is the part that I really do appreciate about some of the

03:48:06.300 smaller parties. And I think they're even shifting away a little bit from, you know, their values and

03:48:12.480 what they stood for. But this is where the People's Party is really fantastic, because

03:48:16.060 it is values-based. It is principles-based. And when we run again in 2024, 2023, or whenever it's

03:48:24.640 going to be, the platform's still not going to change. Why? Because the values are still the

03:48:29.800 same. And Max made it very clear. We are the only opposition right now in Canada. The rest of the

03:48:38.460 parties are all sitting so far left that I noticed in the news the last couple of days, we're no

03:48:47.080 longer far right. We're just slightly right of center now. And it's not because we're right of

03:48:53.560 center. We've always been, I think, center, but everybody else has moved so far left that it just

03:49:00.120 skews the scale. Well, a lot of that consideration is regional. We've definitely still have the same 0.96

03:49:07.500 regional divide. I mean, the Conservatives are solid in the prairies. Ontario and Quebec are still

03:49:15.060 very much liberal along with the Maritimes predominantly. But I remember after the last

03:49:22.120 federal election when the liberals came in with a minority we had a very strong resurgence

03:49:26.360 of regionalism and secessionism in Alberta. I got a feeling we're going to see that flare up a lot

03:49:32.640 again tomorrow and while the Maverick party didn't really make a big splash this time around

03:49:38.700 I got a you know the appetite for a regional voice is going to be a heck of a lot stronger

03:49:44.100 tomorrow than it is today and that's also kind of dipping into the same swimming pool of where

03:49:48.540 you're going is there room for talks or coalitions or somehow because because you guys are all kind

03:49:53.820 of targeting the same alternative vote well i mean i'm looking at the maverick party and they

03:49:58.660 got 1.6 percent and so i said this at the beginning with the maverick party the problem is not east

03:50:04.300 versus west um they're making it regional but and and we do have some regional issues absolutely i'm

03:50:10.980 not disagreeing with that but the people's party of canada under our platform and our policies we

03:50:15.300 address that because the issues are actually not about geography. I've said this before,

03:50:20.620 you know, we have less in common with the lower mainland of BC than we do with some

03:50:25.120 conservative rural ridings in Ontario and Quebec. This is a battle of ideology. Right now,

03:50:33.280 what we're seeing is Canada slide towards this socialism and social, and I'm saying socialism

03:50:39.520 because people don't like to think of it as communism, but we really are there. We're at

03:50:44.560 that crossroads where Canada right now, the government is dictating what they can and cannot

03:50:49.200 put into your own body. You have no freedoms left. So, you know, what is there left when you can't

03:50:55.700 defend your own autonomy as an individual? So, you know, when I look at that, I think they have

03:51:02.520 to give real consideration to, you know, what direction they want to take, because this is not

03:51:07.160 necessarily a regional issue. This is a battle of ideology. And I think anybody who really stands

03:51:14.540 for freedom i think we do need to consolidate we need to come together under one banner and uh and

03:51:21.180 and fight for what what's most important we can bicker about the details after but uh right now

03:51:27.420 we've got you know our freedoms and rights under attack and i think that's what we need to stand in

03:51:31.580 defense of yes well and when i did speak to mr bernier about um how to deal with the regional

03:51:37.660 issues he spoke of greatly decentralizing the the power in ottawa and and backing out of the

03:51:42.620 the provincial authority because of course that's the rubbing point of quebec and alberta is when

03:51:45.980 the feds come in start messing around with with our jurisdictions but i'm perhaps you guys could

03:51:51.660 be the stronger lone voice pushing for that because uh we seem to have nothing but authoritarians in

03:51:55.740 the predominant parties right now absolutely and we are advocating we always have for more

03:52:01.260 provincial autonomy but here's the problem and you guys both know this um it's not the federal

03:52:08.140 government's job to give back uh the autonomy to the provinces it's the province's job to take it

03:52:14.940 back it's theirs it's already there you know people talk about police forces they talk about

03:52:20.380 pensions which is what a lot of the maverick party has been talking about they belong at

03:52:24.380 the provincial level fighting for the province's rights that they already have the ucp under jason

03:52:32.140 kenny is flawed why because again we have another ontario politician who came in he was going to

03:52:38.140 save and rescue alberta that hasn't worked out so well but he's not doing for albertans what

03:52:44.440 albertans asked of him and we already it's already there we don't need to make any constitutional

03:52:50.280 changes or anything at the federal level at the provincial level we just need to take back the

03:52:55.880 powers that we the province already has yeah well the provincial hornet's nest is fodder for a whole

03:53:01.500 other special and show down the road. Alberta is in a special place right now and a very volatile

03:53:07.840 one. I got a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of activity on the provincial front in the

03:53:12.160 next few weeks now that a lot of people have been biting their tongues as this federal election goes

03:53:17.020 by there. So I'll let you go and I appreciate your checking in with us and well we'll be watching

03:53:23.900 closely to see where things go in Banff Airdrie. As I've mentioned before Banff's the town I grew

03:53:28.140 up in. I've still got a soft spot for that area. There we go. I just can't afford to live out

03:53:33.540 there anymore. So good thing I got in early then. Yeah. Well, if Derek could give me a raise, you

03:53:39.800 know. Okay. So we'll check in again. Thanks again for coming on tonight, Nadine. And I'm certain

03:53:45.880 we'll talk again soon. My pleasure. You guys have a wonderful night. Corey, I can update a couple of

03:53:52.300 Alberta writings. The Tories are winning in every writing in Alberta except for two.

03:53:59.980 Edmonton, Strathcona, Heather McPherson, the NDP candidate, the incumbent, is comfortably ahead.

03:54:07.440 She's got 58% of the vote. The conservative candidate, more than 3,000 votes behind with

03:54:15.180 27%. And the close one, as mentioned before, Edmonton Greaseback, the new Democratic candidate,

03:54:25.060 Blake Desjarlais, with 41% of the vote, 4,611 votes to the commentator, Terry Deox, 36%,

03:54:36.000 4,045 votes for about a 550-vote differential there.

03:54:43.600 Taking a quick look provincially, the predicted three-way race in British Columbia has come to fruition.

03:54:52.360 The Liberals leading in 15, the Conservatives 14, and the New Democrats 12.

03:55:00.220 Alberta, as mentioned, 32 to 2.

03:55:04.240 Ontario, obviously, where the election will be likely won or lost.

03:55:08.560 Liberals leading and elected in 76, in the last election they had 79, so they're down just a little bit.

03:55:17.040 Conservatives leading or elected in 36, which is exactly the same number they had last time,

03:55:23.120 and the New Democrats, 8, which I think is also pretty well close to the same as they had last time.

03:55:31.440 So it doesn't appear to be a great swing in momentum in Ontario at the moment,

03:55:37.200 And Quebec, Liberals, 35 seats leading or elected in the last election.

03:55:45.140 They're also leading or elected in 35.

03:55:48.760 Conservatives have 12 seats.

03:55:51.860 That's up two from the last election.

03:55:56.960 And the Bloc kind of underperforming with 29 seats, down by three from the last election.

03:56:03.680 So nationally, interestingly, the Conservatives now have more of the popular vote.

03:56:11.140 They've got 34% of the popular vote, but that only is translating into 123 seats, while the Liberals have 156 seats with 32.7% of the vote.

03:56:26.280 The block, 29 seats, the NDP, 28, and looks like the Green Party with two.

03:56:35.180 Well, you know, I was going to say, Dave, I think of it, I think I'm feeling like Bill Murray over here.

03:56:40.980 It's Groundhog Day all over again.

03:56:45.580 $600 million for nothing.

03:56:47.520 And that national map that disappeared quickly there, but that picture of it really shows a regionally divided country.

03:56:55.860 You got this big blue mass in the middle and you've got every other color in the rainbow on the outsides.

03:57:02.500 Like the prairies did not have a liberal breakthrough.

03:57:05.960 We didn't switch away from conservatives, but we got the short end of the stick as usual.

03:57:11.780 I mean, basically the arrogant attitude from central Canada is, well, if you guys want in, you're just going to have to vote liberal.

03:57:17.160 And it's clear Alberta's not going to do that. 1.00

03:57:19.160 I mean, the rebellious Albertans went in NDP.

03:57:20.960 you know we've got some very heavy regional wounds to heal after this election it wasn't an

03:57:28.140 anti it wasn't really originally divisive campaign but the outcome you can see this this country has

03:57:34.800 some some very different perspectives i think the big winner out of this election is paul hinman

03:57:39.020 the leader of the wild rose uh independence party i mean he must be rubbing his hands in glee as

03:57:45.760 He's watching these results roll in and seeing that he's got Trudeau.

03:57:49.680 I mean, every time Trudeau opens his mouth,

03:57:51.780 Hinman gets more people signing up for his independence party.

03:57:57.360 You know, and I think there's two other things.

03:57:59.240 I just picked up when you were doing the vote count there.

03:58:01.740 Of interest to Calgary voters,

03:58:05.680 it looks like Greg McLean's got a really strong lead there,

03:58:09.040 so he'll be comfortably re-elected as I was expecting.

03:58:11.840 But the latest refresh I saw was the MP Sahota in Counter-Skyviews, just leading by less than 100 votes.

03:58:21.680 So it's still quite close. There's only about 50-some polls, I think, of 200 and some there yet.

03:58:27.520 So early yet in the night, who knows how these mail-in ballots will work out.

03:58:32.520 We often see that change the course of an election as they get counted.

03:58:38.520 But, you know, beyond that, too, when you're seeing Paul Hinman potentially being a good leader,

03:58:43.700 it'll be interesting to see what happens with the Maverick Party after this.

03:58:47.460 Obviously, a bit of a disappointing result from what perhaps I think a lot of people had been hoping they would get.

03:58:56.780 And the other interesting thing for me is you saw the Conservative Party send more of a traditional message

03:59:04.420 and run a traditional Conservative campaign under Andrew Scheer.

03:59:07.680 And that led to a result where, you know, minority government for the Liberals, but won the popular vote marginally.

03:59:16.620 Here we are again.

03:59:17.720 Yes. 0.60

03:59:18.200 Same thing, different strategy, better strategy, replace that incompetent old team.

03:59:24.820 We're going to go win this time.

03:59:26.700 Same result.

03:59:27.960 Just the latest has George the Hall actually leading in Calgary Skyview by 160 votes.

03:59:34.420 So that's going to be going back and forth all night long.

03:59:37.920 Okay.

03:59:38.260 So we've got a couple of guests in the queue back there.

03:59:40.240 We got Jonathan Dennis and Vitor Marciano.

03:59:43.840 So welcome back guys.

03:59:45.520 Um, I think we're beyond the point of saying that we can wait and things

03:59:49.520 might shift dramatically.

03:59:50.620 Uh, we're, we're starting to get a pretty good picture on where this

03:59:53.660 is all heading and going to end up.

03:59:55.660 Uh, we'll start with you though, Vitor, uh, what are you reading today?

04:00:00.480 Wow.

04:00:00.880 I mean, we knew that it would end up exactly in the same place.

04:00:04.420 strikingly yeah um the part that's amazing is that the new democrats they're they're four or

04:00:12.420 five point lead in the polls relative to where they were in 2019 has evaporated tonight uh there

04:00:19.540 wasn't a single poll that had them below 18 most of them had them around 20. uh they're polling 16.9

04:00:26.820 so you're literally going to get the liberals at about the same number the new democrats

04:00:30.820 at roughly the same number the conservatives at roughly the same number the blocks up a little

04:00:37.020 bit but it's not winning them any extra seats um wow uh what an interesting interesting mix on this

04:00:45.800 um as as the numbers come in and there's still a lot of votes to be counted but um you know my

04:00:54.320 last segment i said the liberals were going to end up in somewhere in the 136 to 142 range nope

04:01:00.500 they're going to be at least 150 and uh it's uh you know the with the support of the new democrats

04:01:07.300 they can pass anything they want with the support of the block they can pass anything they want

04:01:11.380 so they don't need to kind of deal with anybody uh because they'll both be available to them as

04:01:15.940 somebody but i don't know how jagmeet singh survives this two elections in a row with

04:01:21.060 the new democrats around 16 i think he's done um it's it's a big surprise to me it certainly

04:01:29.460 wasn't a gain uh so yeah we got a 600 million dollar stalemate basically uh uh look looking

04:01:36.020 through calgary alberta where you've been watching those ridings are you seeing any

04:01:40.180 we got a horse race going on in skyview is there anything outstanding going on out there

04:01:44.420 so the big surprise here is how close it is that average uh it's clear that the ndp uh over the

04:01:51.220 last few years have had to have a strategy to consolidate they've tried to move over to having

04:01:55.860 in a green spot.

04:01:56.860 I wouldn't be surprised if you see a recount in that area.

04:01:59.920 There's only about a 700 vote difference.

04:02:03.780 Typically you get a recount under 100 votes.

04:02:06.080 You can ask for a judicial recount,

04:02:07.740 otherwise we've been able to do that before.

04:02:10.420 It'll be interesting to see what that goes

04:02:11.680 with the mail-in ballots.

04:02:12.520 The mail-in ballots typically favor

04:02:14.300 the more left-wing parties.

04:02:16.220 So the bigger story to me though is, as you mentioned,

04:02:19.380 I look at the conservative vote federally, 34%,

04:02:22.500 the Liberal vote, 32.5%,

04:02:24.880 but the Liberals are gonna form a minority government here.

04:02:27.480 The Conservatives are getting 10 fewer seats

04:02:30.160 than we had in 2019.

04:02:32.840 So we have to ask ourselves,

04:02:33.980 do a bit of soul searching here.

04:02:35.540 What is the strategy that works?

04:02:37.440 Stephen Harper won 2006, 2008,

04:02:41.140 and a majority in 2011 as a Conservative.

04:02:45.080 So we have the PPC, which are not a factor in Alberta

04:02:48.660 because the margins are so high.

04:02:50.320 I wanna see how many votes on the post-mortem

04:02:52.900 PPC took away from the Conservatives and maybe we want to regroup our strategy. We can never

04:03:00.180 forget our right flank and I've seen this from my own personal experience,

04:03:04.020 Conservatives win when we're united. I got a question for you, both you guys. You're both

04:03:11.620 a lot of deep experience in organizing and really doing that grunt work like GoTV,

04:03:19.460 identifying your vote. And one of the things that I'm thinking with some of the disappointment

04:03:24.900 that's coming from the NDP, the PPC, the Maverick, the Greens, is obviously the Liberals and the

04:03:32.420 Conservatives are much more experienced in organizing and doing GoTV. PPC is very new.

04:03:40.100 NDP in the last election was a disappointment. They've continued that streak, but they've lost

04:03:44.500 a lot of perhaps organizational capacity maverick didn't have a lot of organizational capacity it

04:03:50.900 seems to me ppc was more of a feeling than organization do you guys think that's played

04:03:57.380 into this uh these election results in in in many ways i think what we've established with this is

04:04:04.980 that you can change policy in a little bit you can change message you can change leader

04:04:09.700 I think the Conservatives are winning 120 seats on the strength of their organization.

04:04:15.680 I mean, in all honesty, you know, we were at 121 last time.

04:04:20.540 We're sitting at 120.

04:04:21.580 There's every reason to believe that we'll end up back at 120.

04:04:24.280 I actually thought they were going to head closer to the 130-some mark.

04:04:30.040 It's almost like we're not finding a way to get to that next level of convincing voters.

04:04:37.600 And in this election, if, you know, last election, I think it was, you know, 2.6%, 1.6% of the vote, the PPC helped the liberals win five or six seats, depending on how you want to parse the vote.

04:04:52.000 I think with 5.2%, when it all gets counted, the PPC is probably going to help the liberals win 10 or 12, maybe even 15 seats.

04:04:59.300 But that still wouldn't have been enough.

04:05:01.240 I mean, 15 seats would have put O'Toole in the 135 range, so it would have been roughly tied with the liberals.

04:05:07.600 um fundamentally uh you know part of this is the fact that the country's stacked against us never

04:05:15.260 forget the 2.5 million atlantic canadians elect 32 mps 4.4 million albertans elect 36

04:05:23.980 so literally you know we have almost twice the population we get four more seats

04:05:28.580 when you when you combine alberta and british columbia we have a million more people which

04:05:34.480 should be 10 seats. We have two more seats than Quebec. We have a million more people than Quebec.

04:05:39.240 We only get two extra seats, not 10 extra seats. There's an awful lot of built-in imbalances in

04:05:46.240 how Canada runs, but that's relatively unchangeable. And in this election, if that NDP vote

04:05:55.940 was at 20%, where all the polls had it, or 18 or 19, it would be a little different. But right now

04:06:03.040 it's at 16.9 and that's going to elect 156, 157, 155, 158 liberals. And that's where it's going.

04:06:14.980 So something I pointed out on the map just before you came in, and it's certainly an issue near and

04:06:19.040 dear to my heart. I got a feeling we're going to see quite an uprising of regionalism going on.

04:06:23.980 There's that big blue hole in the middle of Canada, that frustration. A lot of people out

04:06:29.060 here, Phil, that we did moderate, you know, the CPC backed off. I mean, we can argue about whether

04:06:34.760 it's a carbon tax or not a carbon tax. He certainly got in on carbon pricing. You know, he softened

04:06:40.380 the stance on the firearms, and it feels like it led to nothing. How is O'Toole going to be able

04:06:47.640 to stem that rising ire, I guess you'd say? You know, Jonathan, I don't think he's going to.

04:06:55.600 Like, I think O'Toole's in a little bit of trouble because he needed to add to the overall play.

04:07:03.000 And if he comes in in the exact same place, I don't know how he holds up.

04:07:07.280 He hasn't come in the same place.

04:07:09.460 We're looking at 121 seats right now.

04:07:11.200 Last time on our average year was 130 seats.

04:07:13.860 Very similar result.

04:07:15.320 It was 121.

04:07:16.540 Okay, then I stand corrected.

04:07:18.360 So you're at the same place.

04:07:19.760 A leader has to go in advance his or her cost.

04:07:22.400 So there will be some decisions to be made.

04:07:25.320 Whether he stays on is up to him.

04:07:27.360 At the end of the day, though, I'll just put this out there.

04:07:31.900 I'm out on Saturday night downtown with a friend of mine.

04:07:35.700 A couple of people out there came.

04:07:37.240 Somebody came to me and says, you know, I'd like to see Pierre Polly as the leader.

04:07:40.560 And I said, really, are you political?

04:07:42.200 He says, no, I'd like to see Pierre Polly.

04:07:43.760 I said, why?

04:07:44.620 He says, he gives me a reason to vote.

04:07:46.260 He's fighting for me.

04:07:47.160 He's fighting for my family.

04:07:48.140 And whether it's him or somebody else, the Conservative Party always has to be the party of the average Canadian, fighting for the average Canadian.

04:07:58.180 There's way more average Canadians than there are CEOs.

04:08:01.980 Maybe we have to do some soul searching here.

04:08:05.280 Jonathan, I've got to pick up on you.

04:08:08.040 Everyone I talk to says, you know, Conservative Party.

04:08:10.880 But you know who I'd really like to see is Pierre Paulie.

04:08:15.440 it's just i hear that all the time guys but that's us conservatives we like fighters yes

04:08:22.540 yep and and and let's be clear it's by no means proven that ontarians like fighters or quebec

04:08:28.640 likes fighters this is one of these things we have not figured out i mean stephen harper who's

04:08:34.700 the last one to win was a very gentle fighter malrooney when he won was a very gentle fighter

04:08:39.360 so we'll we'll see what it looks like in an hour when i'm back but uh vitor i'll just tell you this

04:08:45.300 I'm looking at Carleton, where Pierre has cruised to his seventh straight victory at 47%.

04:08:50.940 Jonathan, let's be clear, that's heavy conservative territory in Carleton.

04:08:57.380 Oh, no, actually, in 2004, Pierre beat the Minister of National Defense at age 24.

04:09:05.220 That writing has gone liberal many times throughout our history.

04:09:08.580 He carries that on his own.

04:09:10.480 Well, and then I think that's what Jeff's poking the stick at.

04:09:13.940 I'm being sarcastic.

04:09:15.300 is that fire in the belly populism can turn Ontario voters potentially.

04:09:21.140 If the right person's putting it out there, it could happen.

04:09:25.420 I will just leave you with this, okay?

04:09:27.500 We're in some deep doggy view as a country here because you have 156 Liberals, 0.98

04:09:32.220 you have 29 Bloc, 29 NDP, they vote together, hang on to this.

04:09:38.100 Oh yes, and I mean, the other thing is, Trudeau's going to come into this,

04:09:42.180 he's going to be able to govern like he has a majority for a little while because Canadians

04:09:47.540 are ticked off. We just, as I said, at a $600 million stalemate, none of those parties is going

04:09:52.600 to pull him down on a confidence vote. I mean, they would be annihilated if they dared to do

04:09:56.760 that. So he can put in some policies that it can be pretty, whatever he likes. Nobody's going to

04:10:02.320 call him on it right now. We're doing this again in 18 to 24 months. Instability does not do well

04:10:08.940 Canada, particularly in a precarious situation like COVID-19. We've racked up ridiculous amounts

04:10:15.600 of debts, some of which was necessary because of the crisis. The question is, is this government

04:10:21.780 actually going to pull back the spending, or are we going to run perpetual deficits? We're already

04:10:25.920 seeing the effects of this. Inflation has already doubled over the last two years, making things

04:10:30.920 more expensive for average people. You know what I would say, my only piece of advice to a 0.95

04:10:36.440 conservative leader that I think would guarantee victory in the next election.

04:10:40.760 Hands down,

04:10:42.640 common support across the country is if they got rid of all of those calls from

04:10:48.820 the CRA and the RCMP that are just pure scams.

04:10:55.260 You were behind all those calls I keep getting.

04:10:59.380 They're annoying. Okay. We're going to pivot now.

04:11:01.940 We've briefly got Michelle Rempel-Garner in the lobby there coming from the conservative campaign. 0.92

04:11:09.560 If we can pull her up.

04:11:10.640 Thanks for joining us there, Jonathan.

04:11:13.780 Thank you.

04:11:14.400 Oh, I'm going to go through some numbers.

04:11:15.680 Oh, no, Dave's going to go through some numbers.

04:11:17.160 Sorry.

04:11:18.260 But we're going to have Michelle shortly.

04:11:20.820 And so hang on there.

04:11:24.980 And let's look at what we're doing nationally.

04:11:27.700 as uh we've been talking about it looks like we've got a liberal minority government uh liberals are

04:11:34.660 uh leading and elected in uh 156 seats

04:11:41.700 Block 29,

04:11:43.700 28, 29

04:11:45.700 also, and

04:11:47.700 the Green Party too.

04:11:49.700 Looking here

04:11:51.700 at Marine Hall,

04:11:53.700 looking at the

04:11:57.700 West,

04:11:59.700 it's basically a dead heap.

04:12:01.700 British Columbia

04:12:03.700 with the Liberals slightly ahead

04:12:05.700 with 15 sheets to the conservative

04:12:07.700 13, and then the Democrats

04:12:09.700 also matching them with the first game.

04:12:13.020 In Alberta, the Conservative seats are almost there.

04:12:18.660 The Liberals are leading in one, that's Calgary and the NDC are leading in two,

04:12:27.860 both in Edmonton, Edmonton Stratford, and Edmonton-Griesbach.

04:12:32.160 In Ontario, Liberals 76 seats leading in elected.

04:12:38.460 The Conservatives with 36 seats meeting and elected, and the New Democrats with 8 seats.

04:12:47.460 Quickly to Quebec, the Bloch with 29 seats, the Conservatives with 12, and the Liberals

04:12:54.060 with 35 seats.

04:12:56.940 So what it gets nationally is the Conservatives have 34 percent, so 34.1 percent of the popular

04:13:05.220 vote with the Liberals at 32.3% of the vote. So Derek, those are the latest numbers to now.

04:13:14.900 All right. Well, we're going to be turning now towards the campaign headquarters of Michelle

04:13:20.740 Rempel. She is the newly reelected Conservative Member of Parliament for Calgary Nose Hill.

04:13:28.260 Let's bring her into the feed. Good evening, Michelle. How are you doing?

04:13:31.940 I'm well, thank you.

04:13:34.340 Oh, I'm sorry.

04:13:35.180 I didn't have my headphone in there for a second.

04:13:37.140 How are you doing?

04:13:37.900 I'm well, thanks.

04:13:38.860 You can hear me?

04:13:39.520 We're good?

04:13:40.220 I can hear you now.

04:13:42.020 Thank you so much for joining us.

04:13:44.440 Big surprise, Michelle Rempel re-elected by a very hefty margin. 1.00

04:13:51.440 How are you feeling right now?

04:13:54.040 I'm really honoured to have been given another mandate by my constituents,

04:13:58.060 and I'm ready to get back to work for them.

04:14:01.380 Obviously, it's a bit bittersweet. You've obviously secured re-election in your constituency, but we have, I mean, if someone bumped their head and went into a coma two years ago and woke up today, they'd probably think it was the same day.

04:14:19.460 looking at the results of this election, Justin Trudeau headed for his third consecutive government

04:14:25.880 or third term, second consecutive minority government. I know you can't be that pleased

04:14:32.580 about it, but where do you, I think we probably share some common ideas about what this means,

04:14:39.800 but where do you think the conservative campaign went wrong in really trying to convince Canadians

04:14:48.520 that it was time not just for change but for a conservative government? Well I think that's the

04:14:55.080 wrong question. I've knocked thousands upon thousands of doors over the last six weeks and

04:15:00.440 what I've heard from my community is that they want stability and they want a path out of the

04:15:04.440 pandemic. There's a lot of fatigue and there's a need for hope. So I think what you're seeing

04:15:12.140 tonight you know if you if you think back six weeks ago you had national media strategists

04:15:17.560 and pundits saying that this was going to be a cakewalk to a majority government for Justin

04:15:22.060 Trudeau. And what you saw, I think tonight is reflected in the fatigue and in the desire of

04:15:27.140 the Canadian public to have solutions and leadership when it comes to the crisis that

04:15:31.820 our country is in right now. And, you know, that is what I am going to be doing tomorrow morning

04:15:36.920 is getting back to work. There are so many things that I wish we could have done as a parliament

04:15:41.780 over the last six weeks that we could have turned our attention to, but we had this election. And

04:15:46.440 And to your point, you know, the results are very much, I don't think, what Justin Trudeau expected them to be.

04:15:54.800 But now we have a duty and an obligation to the Canadian people to put our heads down, get back to work and chart a path out of this.

04:16:04.640 I know you've got a lot of media requests.

04:16:07.020 We're not going to overstay our welcome with you.

04:16:09.660 We're going to let you go in a second.

04:16:12.280 Let me ask this.

04:16:13.860 What do you think it is?

04:16:15.840 You said I asked the wrong question.

04:16:17.520 Let me try a different question or put it a different way.

04:16:21.520 What do you think that the Conservative Party needs to do differently?

04:16:25.340 It appears the Conservatives are headed, like last time, for a victory in the popular vote.

04:16:31.020 But the popular vote obviously doesn't decide the government or seats necessarily.

04:16:35.860 What is it in your mind that could have gone differently?

04:16:41.480 let's put it that way, that could have changed the outcome of tonight?

04:16:47.440 I mean, I'm just coming off of like, you know, six weeks of hardcore door knocking and I'm trying to get my bearings.

04:16:53.960 But based on what I've heard in my community, it's people just want to stability and they want a path forward.

04:17:00.500 I think what people don't want right now is a bunch of infighting and political instability.

04:17:06.360 Our path forward as a party, but more importantly, as a set of parliamentarians of all political stripe has to be a clear and non-divisive and unifying bringing set of policies to get us through the pandemic.

04:17:23.340 I can't stress that enough. I heard it over and over and over and over and over on the doors.

04:17:29.260 we need to get through this um so i mean i'm sure there's going to be a lot of questions about how

04:17:35.700 that is achieved um and as always you know i i put my community first and i'm proud to speak on

04:17:42.500 behalf of alberta i think alberta has a lot of unique challenges coming out of uh the pandemic

04:17:48.580 we were already in an economic crisis going into it um so what i'm focused on now is making sure

04:17:53.840 that those needs are loudly and strongly voiced at the national table but also that the right

04:18:01.400 frustrations that my constituents have expressed over you know the need for stability and unity

04:18:06.320 after a completely unnecessary election that's it's get back to work time. Okay just before I

04:18:15.380 let you go one last question and I don't mean to put you on the spot but it's a question I think

04:18:21.220 a lot of people are getting right now.

04:18:23.240 It's a topic of discussion

04:18:24.800 pretty much everywhere.

04:18:27.180 How much impact, if any,

04:18:28.760 do you think the,

04:18:30.000 let's call it just the current confusion

04:18:32.160 in the provincial government had,

04:18:35.620 how much of a bearing did that have

04:18:37.000 on the provincial campaign?

04:18:39.980 Well, certainly I received

04:18:41.720 a large mandate from my community

04:18:43.340 and I would say that

04:18:44.320 that's based on my track record,

04:18:45.880 my results,

04:18:46.780 and as well as our party's platform.

04:18:49.520 That's something that

04:18:50.560 I'm going to take to heart and move forward in executing. Okay, Michelle, thank you very much

04:18:56.320 for your time. Congratulations on your victory tonight and good luck in the next week. There's

04:19:02.140 a lot of work ahead. Take care. All right, you take care. All right, that was Michelle Rempel-Garner.

04:19:09.960 She is the newly re-elected Member of Parliament for Calgary Nose Hill. Certainly someone I think

04:19:17.200 we're going to want to keep our eyes on over the next term of Parliament.

04:19:21.760 She is certainly one of the more prominent frontbenchers,

04:19:25.340 probably the most prominent Conservative or Federal Member of Parliament period

04:19:30.040 in Alberta from any party.

04:19:33.600 I've got to ask, why do you look like a giant compared to Josh and I?

04:19:38.340 I think he does that on purpose.

04:19:39.960 I'm bigger.

04:19:40.400 I'm 95% sure he's done this on purpose.

04:19:43.320 Okay, my chair is about half an inch higher because mine needs a swivel

04:19:46.980 because it's in the middle.

04:19:48.180 Do you want to change chairs or would you like a phone book?

04:19:50.100 No, no, no, that's fine. 0.91

04:19:51.420 I just wanted on the record to say that, you know, Joshua are not midgets. 0.62

04:19:59.240 I'll lean back here. 0.54

04:20:00.660 Okay.

04:20:02.360 Who do we have up next here?

04:20:06.760 Let's see.

04:20:08.540 Okay, we're going to have Aaron Gunn up next,

04:20:10.940 but I think it behooves us to go through the numbers right now.

04:20:15.640 So, Mel, let's pull up the map.

04:20:20.060 I don't know.

04:20:21.180 Oh, my goodness.

04:20:22.640 Someone has just walked into our office with pillows for the bums of... 0.99

04:20:27.640 You can't see it, but there are pillows flying across our screens.

04:20:31.880 It is pandemonium in the studio right now

04:20:36.000 so that these guys can have big boy chairs and sit up with me.

04:20:42.440 Dave Naylor is going to run us through the numbers before we redecorate the office anymore.

04:20:48.660 Okay, thanks, Derek.

04:20:50.940 Let us start off in the West, where we all good things are.

04:20:55.600 In the West, let's start with British Columbia, 14 to 14 for the Conservatives and the Liberals,

04:21:03.500 both tied with that number, the NDP, only one behind at 13 seats.

04:21:09.780 Moving eastward in Alberta, the Conservatives performing strongly again with 31 seats, leading or elected, and Liberals leading in one, which would be Calgary Skyview, and the NDP leading in the two Edmonton seats.

04:21:28.920 Ontario, not much has changed, you've got the Liberals at 76, the Conservatives at 37,

04:21:39.080 and the New Democrats at 7.

04:21:43.120 In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is 29, the Conservatives 12, and the Liberals with 35.

04:21:53.040 Tell you what, I'm just going to quickly call up Manitoba and Saskatchewan, see how things are doing there.

04:22:04.320 Manitoba.

04:22:07.400 In Manitoba, Conservatives leading seven seats, the Liberals four, the New Democratic Party three,

04:22:17.240 The People's Party, who had campaigned strongly in parts of Manitoba, with a respectable 8.2% of the popular vote.

04:22:28.280 In Saskatchewan, I've got to credit the Elections Canada website. It seems to be working pretty good tonight.

04:22:36.880 In Saskatchewan, well, it's 14 to nothing.

04:22:41.740 Conservatives have won every single seat in Saskatchewan.

04:22:46.000 Yet again, I think that's the second election in a row.

04:22:50.660 So what you're looking at nationally, Canadians, is Liberals leading and elected in 156,

04:22:58.060 The Conservatives in 123, the BQ with 29, the NDP 28, and the Green Party with 2.

04:23:09.020 Conservatives continue to lead the popular vote, 34.1% to 32.1% for the Liberals.

04:23:18.620 Derek?

04:23:19.600 Thank you, Dave.

04:23:21.440 All right.

04:23:22.480 The popular vote's pretty interesting in this.

04:23:25.000 The Conservatives, for the second consecutive election, have won the popular vote but lost the election.

04:23:31.580 Tell it to Hillary Clinton. 0.68

04:23:33.360 Someone tell Hillary Clinton that this is an illegitimate election. 1.00

04:23:37.580 It doesn't count because someone else won the popular vote.

04:23:41.140 Second consecutive election, the Conservatives are up, at least at this point,

04:23:44.800 two whole percentage points over the Liberals, 34.1 to 32.1.

04:23:51.060 It is incredible, though, that the two biggest parties, together, barely cobbled together two-thirds of the vote.

04:23:59.780 That is incredible.

04:24:01.280 In Canada, people have lost so much faith in the big parties that only two-thirds of Canadians have voted for the big so-called center-right and the big so-called center-left party.

04:24:12.180 The NDP underperforming the polls pretty considerably tonight with 17.2 block, as you said, 8.2.

04:24:19.340 You know, the Bloc actually didn't do that bad in the popular vote.

04:24:22.400 I'm surprised they didn't yield more seats out of that.

04:24:26.640 We're going to have to dive into those numbers a bit more,

04:24:29.740 because that must be a lot of bad splits for the Bloc.

04:24:32.340 The Bloc must have had a particularly inefficient vote today, at least by Bloc standards.

04:24:36.360 They got pretty much half the votes of the NDP and just as many seats.

04:24:41.300 So the Bloc has, yes, a very efficient vote, but by their own traditional standards, it was not a good election.

04:24:47.060 The PPC is the least efficient vote in Canada.

04:24:50.820 Right now, they've got 5.2% of the popular vote.

04:24:55.540 Pretty respectful.

04:24:56.840 Dave, maybe you can pull up while I'm going through this.

04:25:00.020 I'd like to see the popular vote of the PPC in Alberta,

04:25:03.420 and then if we get to see the provincial breakdown for that.

04:25:07.920 I can.

04:25:08.580 The popular vote for the PPC in Alberta, 7.3%.

04:25:12.520 7.3%.

04:25:14.060 Yeah, so they're going to need a fair bit more,

04:25:16.220 and they're going to need to cluster it in some particular constituencies.

04:25:19.480 The Green Party absolutely shellacked in the popular vote, 2.2%.

04:25:25.520 Yet, they are right now leading or elected in two seats.

04:25:30.520 You know, the Greens spent quite a few of their, you know, they were a fringe party for a long time.

04:25:35.740 The first election under, their first election under Elizabeth May,

04:25:39.580 they actually did fairly decently in the popular vote, right around what PPC actually got this time.

04:25:44.080 Didn't get any seats.

04:25:45.460 But then, I forget which election it was.

04:25:47.800 I think it may have been 2011.

04:25:49.860 Elizabeth May said, okay, I'm not going to care about the popular vote anymore. 0.91

04:25:54.360 I want to get some seats.

04:25:55.780 And they found a spot where they thought she could win.

04:25:59.500 And they focused on it.

04:26:00.660 And they drilled in.

04:26:01.360 And they drilled in.

04:26:02.160 And they got a beachhead.

04:26:03.640 Last election, they had three seats.

04:26:05.740 A record for them.

04:26:06.500 This election looks like they're getting two. 0.95

04:26:08.500 At least they're in Parliament.

04:26:09.600 It seems to me it behooves the PPC to, I don't know, try to get some seats.

04:26:16.600 They've certainly had a big impact, but I think at some point, Josh,

04:26:24.600 do you think they're going to change strategy away from just trying to harvest as many votes across the country as possible?

04:26:31.600 PPC?

04:26:32.600 Yeah, do you think they're going to undergo something like the Greens and actually try to concentrate their support?

04:26:37.600 support? Or do you think their goal right now is just to continue to try and get as

04:26:41.540 harvest as many votes as possible, regardless of where they are?

04:26:43.860 I don't know how much of this was strategic and how much of this was just the fact that

04:26:48.280 COVID became a bigger ballot box question than I think we thought in mid-August. They

04:26:55.280 definitely cordoned off a large section of the unvaccinated or vaccine-hesitant people.

04:27:02.680 and I don't necessarily know if that's going to be an issue in two years from now,

04:27:09.260 but they definitely made an impact.

04:27:11.880 I think I heard, I think it was Vitor mentioning Edmonton Giesbrecht,

04:27:17.260 where it looks like longtime MP Kerry Deyotte is going to...

04:27:24.860 Well, I'm not sure long time. He's had a few terms.

04:27:27.520 Yeah, he's not quite. I think he's a couple weeks short of his pension,

04:27:31.000 so that's unfortunate.

04:27:32.680 Well, there's just a little over half the polls reporting there.

04:27:35.960 So I think that Knight is not done yet.

04:27:38.800 I mean, he's behind.

04:27:41.760 6.5% for the PPC, that definitely makes up the gap in Griesbrecht.

04:27:48.240 I think that's the only riding in Alberta that they're going to have that kind of an

04:27:52.200 impact.

04:27:53.200 So all the fear...

04:27:54.200 Oh, we've got a Calgary seat here, Calgary Sky, Georgia Hall has pulled ahead, PPC 4%.

04:28:01.640 Yeah, so it's definitely, it's been a play.

04:28:05.240 I know a lot of people in rural Alberta were using the vote split argument

04:28:10.380 as a reason not to vote PPC,

04:28:13.380 even though it may have been a party that better aligned with their interests.

04:28:18.460 But, like, we're seeing massive wins in a lot of these rural ridings.

04:28:23.560 Damian Couric is up 71%.

04:28:26.580 He's got to 10% over the NDP.

04:28:28.920 You've got Martin Shields in Bow River, 69.8% to 11.9% PPC.

04:28:36.180 So the don't split the vote argument in a lot of those ridings doesn't come into play.

04:28:42.720 But yeah, definitely Calgary Skyview, Edmonton Griesbeck.

04:28:47.660 Looks like Len Weber.

04:28:48.900 How's Centre doing?

04:28:51.260 Centre is Greg McLean, 50.

04:28:54.460 It's shocking to me that Centre was that much of a blowout.

04:28:58.020 The center is often fairly competitive.

04:29:00.900 Sabrina Grover, the Liberals had pretty high hopes that she'd be able to make it happen 0.96

04:29:05.760 this time.

04:29:06.760 I mean, they held it under Kent Hare.

04:29:09.100 Kent Hare was actually pretty broadly liked.

04:29:11.900 I mean, even people who aren't Liberals like him because he's a nice guy, but obviously

04:29:15.980 had a bit of trouble and wasn't particularly supported by Trudeau in that.

04:29:22.020 So yeah, I'm shocked that Sabrina Grover and the Liberals were not more competitive this

04:29:26.800 evening.

04:29:27.800 Actually, more than half of the polls to come in.

04:29:29.600 Yeah, more than half left to come in, so...

04:29:30.600 I mean, it's highly likely, like, that's a pretty damn big lead.

04:29:35.200 5,000 votes, yeah.

04:29:36.380 Yeah, and he's been declared elected, at least by some of the networks here.

04:29:39.700 He's probably elected, but there's a lot to come in.

04:29:42.160 Glenn Weber's been declared elected as well, so...

04:29:44.940 Yeah.

04:29:45.600 Yeah.

04:29:46.080 Well, and just in case it wasn't obvious, I mean, we have said so,

04:29:49.000 but just to make it official, the Western Standard, for what it's worth,

04:29:54.720 we're absolutely calling this for the Liberals.

04:29:57.800 The Liberals are going to form a minority government tonight.

04:30:02.860 The mail-in ballots are still to come, but if the conventional wisdom holds to be wise,

04:30:10.560 then that's probably only going to compound Liberal victories.

04:30:13.380 I think some of these, I'm not sure how much of a change it's going to be in Liberal NDP

04:30:19.640 switchers, but in conservative, in close conservative Liberal races, if there's a close margin

04:30:25.400 victory there there's a not insignificant chance that we're going to see uh several conservatives

04:30:32.600 um probably not be as happy a few days from now once those ballots come in yeah and i wish we had

04:30:38.120 more time with uh michelle because i was she of course was one of the leaders of the buffalo

04:30:46.280 declaration signed by i think it was four mps back in 2019 and if you look at the map and there's

04:30:52.840 There's very much a blue hole in the middle.

04:30:56.000 Well, it looks exactly like it did last time.

04:30:57.780 And it looks like the Liberals are leading, but I'm going to refresh this.

04:31:02.540 Okay, well, we're going to come back to that in a moment.

04:31:04.600 We've got another guest here.

04:31:06.240 We have Aaron Gunn joining us from British Columbia.

04:31:10.520 Aaron, we're about to add Aaron.

04:31:13.660 Here's Aaron Gunn.

04:31:14.800 Aaron, it doesn't look like you're at a happy party anymore.

04:31:19.460 No, it doesn't.

04:31:20.540 That's, I mean, we'll see, we try to get a better internet connection, so we came out here, but some, I mean, mixed feelings from people.

04:31:28.900 I think, to be honest, this is what everyone was expecting.

04:31:32.900 This is almost identical to what we got last time, and here we are again.

04:31:37.660 So, I don't know, I just got to this new location, so it looks like, what are we at, the Liberals down a couple, Conservatives up a couple, maybe NDP up a couple.

04:31:50.540 Okay, well you're obviously not pleased about it. I know you're not a liberal.

04:31:57.540 We're going to have another fascinating guest coming to us from the west, but this time to the east of Alberta.

04:32:02.540 We're going to have Quick Dick McDick joining us from Saskatchewan.

04:32:07.540 I'm trying not to lie. It's just the greatest name ever.

04:32:10.540 I think I love him. I think he's great. I'm looking forward to it.

04:32:13.540 Aaron, where do you think the Conservatives went wrong here?

04:32:16.540 They, again, won the popular vote.

04:32:19.700 Erin O'Toole moved sharply to the left or to the center, depending on how you're considering this.

04:32:26.040 A pretty hard move to the left, adopting most of the key liberal policies around balanced budgets, around carbon taxes,

04:32:35.860 very closely mirroring the liberal positions on things like vaccine passports.

04:32:42.160 I mean, I don't think you could ask for a much more progressive conservative than you

04:32:48.740 could get with Aaron O'Toole.

04:32:51.520 Where do you think the conservative campaign went wrong?

04:32:55.660 Well, I think they tried to campaign as liberals and I don't know how much more electoral evidence

04:33:02.660 you need to showcase the fact that when conservatives don't present a clear alternative to people,

04:33:09.340 they don't campaign on conservative ideas and conservative platforms um they don't win they

04:33:14.520 don't go anywhere i think if voters want to vote liberal they know who to vote for and when

04:33:18.940 progressives want progressive options they already have three or four options depending on what part

04:33:23.140 of the country you're in so um i think they went wrong i think the flip-flop on on uh the trudeau

04:33:29.460 gun ban was terrible and hurt them i think um going into the the pre-campaign flip-flop on the

04:33:35.860 carbon tax conservatives. And at the end of the day, I just think he didn't, he didn't stand for

04:33:40.700 anything. And if you don't stand for anything, how can you ever hope to, to earn new voters?

04:33:48.160 Yeah. Well, what do you think happens next? Aaron O'Toole was elected as the true blue

04:33:55.820 conservative. He is the heir to Stephen Harper and Preston Manning. You know, he was able to,

04:34:01.760 at least on the final ballot, win with significant Western support and dominantly from the right side of the Conservative Party.

04:34:09.420 Do you think Aaron O'Toole is long for the political world, or do you think he's going to be able to get another kick at the can?

04:34:16.440 I think there's definitely, there's already a movement within the Conservative tent that's pushing for that to happen.

04:34:24.140 I'm not in a position to count who's got more power.

04:34:27.460 I do think that Aaron O'Toole has a lot of supporters within the Conservative Party establishment in Toronto and Ottawa, which tend to pull a lot of the levers within the party.

04:34:36.300 But I think among the grassroots, there's a lot of people that are frustrated.

04:34:40.280 But maybe more importantly, Derek, the question becomes, is there someone who's willing to step up to take his place?

04:34:46.800 I think that becomes the next big question, and who might that somebody be?

04:34:50.560 And that might make the decision a little bit more interesting.

04:34:54.120 Well, I'm just going to have to put you on the spot because you just opened yourself up for it.

04:35:00.820 Who do you think would be a short list of potential candidates if the leadership of the Federal Conservative Party was to open up?

04:35:08.920 Well, look, I think everybody, if Pierre wants it, Pierre Polyev, obviously he's got the biggest following.

04:35:16.340 There's still some uncertainty with why he didn't go last time.

04:35:20.240 Some people might wonder if Peter McKay will take another kick at the can.

04:35:23.360 I mean, one thing I will say about Peter McKay is if you were going to run on a kind of progressive conservative platform anyways, I'm sure he would have been the better choice or the more presentable choice to Canadians.

04:35:37.100 And then you've got a bunch of new younger MPs in the West and maybe someone make a name for themselves or we will see.

04:35:45.180 But look, I mean, if Pierre Polyev is able to assemble a team, I think it's, I think it's, it would be his to lose.

04:35:53.340 I mean, I guess Rona Ambrose's name you could throw out there.

04:35:56.480 Some, some conservatives may still fantasize about a return to Stephen Harper, but I think that's, that's the reality on the ground and that's where the energy would be.

04:36:05.180 Yeah.

04:36:06.080 Okay.

04:36:06.440 Thank you very much, Aaron.

04:36:07.340 We're going to come back to you in a bit here.

04:36:09.200 We're going to want to, next time we see you, we're going to want to chat more specifically about some of the results in British Columbia specifically.

04:36:16.640 Before we go to quick Dick McDick out of Saskatchewan, I know Green Leader NMA Paul is speaking right now.

04:36:25.540 I don't think we're going to go, we're not going to listen to her speech, but if production wants to pull up on a second screen, pull her up on the side just as she's speaking.

04:36:36.460 We'll keep her on muted if that's possible.

04:36:39.200 But in the meantime, let's bring Quick Dick McDick into the conversation here.

04:36:46.640 Quick Dick is a farmer and I don't know what else to call him, a social media phenomenon,

04:36:54.060 or maybe just a phenomenon from Saskatchewan.

04:36:57.780 What part of Saskatchewan are you in right now, Quick?

04:37:00.760 Tothnold, Eric.

04:37:01.780 Yeah, the best part of Saskatchewan.

04:37:05.500 It's a de facto capital.

04:37:07.940 I'm pretty sure that they went for Regina, but Tufnall was a close second, I think, is where it was.

04:37:13.960 The population of 40 really catapulted us to the front.

04:37:21.220 Well, actually, you know what?

04:37:22.500 Right before we come to you, we kind of came to you,

04:37:25.480 but let's really quickly maybe get a brief on where we're at in Saskatchewan.

04:37:29.860 I don't think we've actually done our due.

04:37:31.160 14 to nothing.

04:37:33.180 Clean sweep.

04:37:34.260 Clean sweep again.

04:37:35.580 You're beating us now.

04:37:36.960 We used to be rat-free and liberal-free and New Democrat-free,

04:37:42.360 but, you know, we've got little pockets coming up.

04:37:45.000 You guys did a clean sweep.

04:37:47.920 Before I ask you for your overall reaction,

04:37:50.440 what's your reaction for tonight in Saskatchewan?

04:37:53.880 Well, I think everyone is really watching.

04:37:55.700 DMC really close here tonight with Buckley Belanger

04:37:58.200 was actually probably what most people were watching,

04:38:01.940 the closest in Saskatchewan.

04:38:04.400 And I think it might have been a little bit of a shock

04:38:06.480 to a lot of people too that he actually didn't kind of pull out front there uh but like honestly

04:38:12.440 guys i i literally just just got sat down here and i'm actually a little bit behind and i was

04:38:18.760 shocked uh when i came home here tonight and kind of got caught up on things that that we're at where

04:38:25.020 we're at we are at the exact same spot that we were in our last federal election you know 600

04:38:32.020 and odd million dollars change later, uh, with no change whatsoever. What, what is happening here,

04:38:39.940 guys? Yeah. The results in Saskatchewan, well, as I said, it's a clean sweep. Uh, the only really

04:38:47.600 news is, uh, some of the seconds and thirds. Um, yeah, there was, uh, I mean, the PPC is broken

04:38:56.660 through. I shouldn't say broken through that's probably too generous, uh, but placed some,

04:39:01.620 some thirds and some seconds around uh at least around rural uh saskatchewan um

04:39:09.940 they failed to win any seats anywhere tonight uh really failing to concentrate their vote in any

04:39:16.920 inefficient way but um what did you see on the ground you're in rural saskatchewan

04:39:23.020 um this was this party just a pure protest or do you think it has any

04:39:27.440 really room for growth in the future no it's it that's a good question i think where we saw a lot

04:39:32.900 of things with the pbc specifically i mean if you want to call it rural saskatchewan or even

04:39:37.620 central saskatchewan kind of thing um side note i'm not shocked that bernier did not win his seat

04:39:45.780 and i i think anyone that was supporting pbc or does support pbc you need to have a real close

04:39:52.640 look at your leader um and i i think that was a very epic failure of the party but uh specifically

04:40:00.460 saskatchewan wise here i i think that you saw a lot of protests and a few different things going

04:40:07.240 on pre-election that maybe set a little bit of a stigma if you want to call it for the ppc that was

04:40:13.440 maybe not the best stigma that you'd want to have set for your party um i'm i'm i'm actually kind

04:40:19.280 of shocked that the maverick party did not do better than they did uh and full disclosure i

04:40:25.500 will say that the the maverick party was running some great candidates uh in in a lot of their in

04:40:31.560 a lot of their ridings that they were running in and uh i i think they actually put up a pretty

04:40:37.860 good fight with the candidates that they had and and gained no support off of it um but i don't

04:40:44.580 know if their timing is quite right on this election to be trying the platform that they're

04:40:49.360 trying and it's it it's almost saddening for the simple fact there's the maverick party speaks for

04:40:56.640 a lot of what rural saskatchewan is um but i just don't think it's to the point where everybody's

04:41:03.780 ready to say hey it's it's the west or get bent kind of thing if that makes sense yeah i was quite

04:41:10.860 shocked by i was not shocked tonight by the results of the maverick party almost non-existent

04:41:16.940 really um i i think there actually is a very significant appetite for at least the concept

04:41:24.760 of what the maverick party is offering i think it's an idea that this time has come

04:41:29.660 but the problem they ran an uninspiring campaign first of all they said we're not going to run

04:41:37.660 anywhere where the

04:41:39.100 liberals are

04:41:41.600 sorry, where the conservatives could possibly

04:41:43.940 lose. And while I appreciate

04:41:45.560 that argument, first of all, voters don't

04:41:47.740 understand vote splits.

04:41:49.520 Some might think they do, they don't. There is

04:41:51.740 no such thing as a vote split in

04:41:53.520 the Cypress Hills or in the Round

04:41:55.660 Medicine Hat, but

04:41:57.720 people still think there is. Voters don't understand it

04:41:59.660 first of all. Second of all, it kind of presumes

04:42:01.940 that the conservatives have some

04:42:03.320 inherent right to the vote

04:42:05.280 and you don't have

04:42:07.500 and you should never violate that inherent right.

04:42:10.740 But most importantly, they didn't seem to grasp the zeitgeist around, you know,

04:42:19.680 the resistance to authoritarianism that we're seeing right now,

04:42:23.480 resistance to vaccine passports, resistance to lockdowns, to other intrusions on liberties.

04:42:29.380 I know that's not why that party was founded,

04:42:31.860 but it's very much the concerns of huge numbers of Westerners,

04:42:34.660 particularly Westerners outside of the largest metropolitan centers.

04:42:39.800 And they just really failed to capture that.

04:42:41.960 So I went into this election expecting probably Maverick to mildly outperform the PPC.

04:42:49.540 It wasn't that inspiring coming in.

04:42:52.000 I mean, I don't really fault their leader much.

04:42:54.740 I think they benefited tremendously by having a guy like Jay Hill brought them a lot of credibility and organized them.

04:43:00.920 But the party lacked any fight.

04:43:03.680 It wasn't very fighty, and so by election day, it really didn't have much.

04:43:09.940 Josh, you have a question.

04:43:11.400 Yeah, no, it's not really a question.

04:43:13.080 It's just more of an observation.

04:43:16.240 I think another reason that Maverick and the PPC had a difficult time breaking through

04:43:20.160 was because there is a tremendous anti-Trudeau sentiment,

04:43:25.120 and for a lot of people, they're going to vote against Trudeau,

04:43:27.840 even though they may align with Maverick or PPC or some combination of both.

04:43:33.060 that it's just hard to break through when all anybody's thinking about

04:43:37.880 when they go to the poll is we've got to get rid of Trudeau.

04:43:40.840 And I really think that, like, the Reform Party didn't win in 1988 with Pierre,

04:43:49.780 sorry, 93, they didn't win the West in 93 with Pierre Trudeau as prime minister.

04:43:55.240 At the time, Brian Mulroney was prime minister.

04:43:58.620 and no separate or third party broke through.

04:44:05.820 New right league parties almost always only succeed in breaking through

04:44:11.840 when you have a very centrist or even center-left conservative party in power.

04:44:16.580 You saw that with the Reform Party and Brian Mulroney slash Kim Campbell.

04:44:19.720 You saw that with the Wild Rose Party and Ed Stelmack and Alison Redford.

04:44:28.020 Thank you, Rapunzel, if that's your real name.

04:44:31.440 Quick Dick is the best. 1.00

04:44:32.620 We do have great guests today.

04:44:35.620 Josh accepted.

04:44:38.160 Well, that's just rude.

04:44:41.620 I think so.

04:44:42.900 So, let's just quickly, what's your thoughts nationally?

04:44:47.580 I actually expected to see a little bit more of a swing in the Maritimes than we saw,

04:44:53.760 uh to be perfectly honest especially with what happened with uh with Nova Scotia's provincial

04:44:59.180 election um I was a little bit shocked by the GTA I I thought O'Toole would do better in the GTA

04:45:06.440 and uh that's obviously not the case I'm I'm not shocked uh by our Prairie Provinces results here

04:45:14.340 right now uh yeah there's some mail-in votes and some things to come in yet but I really don't

04:45:18.980 think we're going to see that much of a change and it just I guess maybe a question that a lot of

04:45:23.720 canadians are going to be asking themselves now is is where do we go from here and i even find

04:45:28.800 myself asking that same question is it's not what i expected i did not expect to see the liberals

04:45:33.660 have the support that they do um and i don't know where we do go from here uh and i i i keep falling

04:45:42.340 back to the maverick party here with with the candidates that they were running and and and

04:45:46.240 they did really fantastic but we saw in the maverick party with a bigger part of their

04:45:53.520 platform was that uh they were not going to split the vote because they were only running

04:45:58.260 predominantly in conservative ridings and it it just in canada unfortunately just it boils down

04:46:05.360 to to a seat count and and that's all that it boils down to and whether one seat would go to

04:46:10.340 a maverick or whether we see a party like the ppc and i've i've had a lot of you know comments and

04:46:16.580 whatnot on my social media channels being like oh ppc this ppc that it that was the one party that

04:46:23.460 was really going to split the vote if we really have a close look at it and uh that's unfortunate

04:46:28.920 and i think you can kind of see that in a few of the numbers too um where we go from here honestly

04:46:34.440 fellas i i really don't have much of an idea where we do go from here i'm hoping that

04:46:39.720 justin trudeau landing back at the same place that he was when we called the 600 million dollar

04:46:45.440 election in the middle of a fourth wave of a pandemic and everything that was happening in

04:46:49.440 Afghanistan, a drought being dealt with by farmers on the prairies, BC completely up in flames.

04:46:57.620 This is where we land at after that. I'm not sure where we go from there, but I'm hoping that

04:47:02.540 we can maybe see a change in leadership from the Liberal Party. And I don't know if we'll get it.

04:47:08.520 And I guess that's kind of concerning. Okay. What do you think this means for Aaron O'Toole?

04:47:16.640 I mean, you're in the heart of Conservative country.

04:47:20.140 I mean, Calgary, we might kind of fashion ourselves the capital,

04:47:24.400 but, I mean, there's still Liberals within walking distance from our office here.

04:47:29.820 I mean, they're here.

04:47:32.140 They're here.

04:47:33.560 What do you think this means for Aaron O'Toole, and do you think he survives as leader?

04:47:37.760 That's a good question.

04:47:38.860 I'm not sure.

04:47:39.380 If you look back when when they did the conservative, the conservative candidate election, we saw predominantly in Saskatchewan was support for Lesley Lewis.

04:47:52.020 I can't honestly sit here and say that I think that Lesley Lewis would have run a better campaign than Aaron O'Toole did when O'Toole started flopping on a few of his policies, i.e. gun ban, carbon tax and a few different things.

04:48:04.540 I think that was maybe a little bit of a faltering point for him.

04:48:08.320 And I'm not sure where Leslie Lewis could have done better than that, to be perfectly honest.

04:48:14.680 But I feel like she might have done better in the GTA area where it's so important.

04:48:22.000 But I don't think there's any statistics that would either support or deny that claim that I've made.

04:48:28.320 And you never really know until you get down to election night.

04:48:30.960 And I think there was a lot of people that were looking at coming into this election with a lot stronger conservative support than what we've seen.

04:48:38.940 And I think there are going to be a lot of people that are very dumbfounded by the results that we've seen.

04:48:44.360 And also, I feel like there's going to be a lot of PBC supporters that are not going to see what has happened here with what they've done with their votes.

04:48:54.440 and I think that's going to continue to cause us a little bit of stress in future elections as well

04:48:59.380 because I don't feel like we're going to see Maxine Bernier go anywhere.

04:49:05.120 I've got some breaking news that may bring a smile to Quick Dick's face.

04:49:11.360 Maryam Monsif, the Liberal Women's Minister, has gone down to defeat in the Peterborough writing.

04:49:18.040 You remember she was the Cabinet Minister who said the Taliban are our brothers.

04:49:24.440 She should have got them to vote for.

04:49:26.080 She has been defeated by conservative Michelle Ferrari.

04:49:31.860 I would just say that.

04:49:34.020 Yes, you did. 0.98

04:49:37.740 Quick, Dick. 0.98

04:49:40.580 Miriam's biggest election fault, not bringing Taliban? 1.00

04:49:46.760 So her biggest election fault, I would assume being referring to the Taliban as her brothers or our brothers.

04:49:54.440 And I'm sorry when you say something like that.

04:49:57.540 How much time do you have?

04:50:00.140 A few more minutes.

04:50:01.520 What do you guys got?

04:50:02.420 Okay.

04:50:03.180 Well, we appreciate your time.

04:50:04.500 We're going to go back to Dave now.

04:50:05.740 We're going to pull up the map and get an update on the seat count.

04:50:08.640 Look at some of the key swing races.

04:50:10.980 And we're going to bring Corey Morgan back into the conversation here.

04:50:14.480 I know that Corey guy.

04:50:15.440 He's okay.

04:50:16.000 We can have him in, I guess.

04:50:17.520 He's not bad.

04:50:18.360 And quick, you're welcome back anytime.

04:50:21.040 Thanks, fellas.

04:50:22.560 Okay.

04:50:23.080 Across the country we'll start with the national picture and if you're a

04:50:27.460 conservative it's not a happy one. The Liberals leading and elected with 157

04:50:36.700 writings. Conservatives leading and elected in 120, the Bloc 32, the NDP 27,

04:50:44.680 and the Green Party too, not including their leader Anna Marie Paul who has

04:50:51.340 gone down to defeat in Toronto Centre. In Saskatchewan they pitched a no-hitter

04:50:57.640 who was 14 to nothing. For the Conservatives, Alberta still a few

04:51:03.880 seats up in the air. Conservatives 30, the Liberals leading in two and two New

04:51:10.540 Democratic Party candidates are leading in their writings.

04:51:16.320 Quickly, two Ontario, 37 Conservatives, 77 Liberals, and one Green Party, six New Democrats.

04:51:27.500 So let me just quickly call up British Columbia.

04:51:35.280 In British Columbia, that heat continues between the Conservatives and the Liberals with the New Democrats at 13.

04:51:45.500 So the Redding's in play in Alberta.

04:51:49.840 Well, certainly not Calgary Nose Hill.

04:51:51.640 We know Michelle Rempel has cleaned up on that one. 1.00

04:51:56.260 In Calgary Skyview, George Sahal, the Liberal candidate,

04:52:01.720 is ahead of the Conservatives, Jacques Sahota, 7,192 votes, 6,778.

04:52:12.000 In Edmonton, there's two ridings that are fairly close.

04:52:20.480 Let me just call them up here, see what's happening in Edmonton, Greaseback.

04:52:28.860 Where the NDP's Blake Desjardins is leading with 9,857 votes.

04:52:36.100 Incumbent Kerry Diot trailing by more than 1,000 now.

04:52:40.740 And that's with 67, 68% of all the polls reporting there.

04:52:48.360 So Kerry Deott's got a bit of a fight on his hands, Corey, to keep his seat.

04:52:59.240 And where are we going, production team?

04:53:00.960 Is Quick Dick still with us?

04:53:04.460 All right, why don't we throw him back up and he and Corey can have a chat.

04:53:08.760 yeah i gotta get that guy because i've been trying to corner him online for months

04:53:14.760 it's it's this pesky agriculture thing keeps getting in my way i'm not sure i uh as you can

04:53:20.440 see that i i came out of my tractor with the exact same clothing that i wear day to day i

04:53:25.640 couldn't get as dressed up as you guys could my apologies yeah derek made me wear a tie and

04:53:30.040 and everything. It's going to take me a while to forgive me for that.

04:53:34.620 I mean, I don't know.

04:53:35.800 I mean, just looking at this whole thing, and all I can

04:53:37.820 say is what a brutal 0.99

04:53:40.060 waste of damn time 0.99

04:53:41.780 and money and resources and 1.00

04:53:43.760 energy and emotion.

04:53:46.120 There was no winner in this

04:53:47.680 whole bloody election. There really wasn't.

04:53:49.640 Every party leader is now looking weak.

04:53:52.100 The regions are divided.

04:53:53.620 People are divided. Neighbors are divided.

04:53:56.500 I hate,

04:53:57.560 you know, I've been crabby on many election nights,

04:53:59.560 So I don't think I've ever felt this dejected on something that didn't change anything.

04:54:03.120 Yeah, I think what you say, Corey, is bang on.

04:54:06.220 And that's the feeling that I've got from most, you know, I wasn't in touch with a whole lot of people before I actually made it home here tonight.

04:54:12.940 But I think the general feel that you get from a lot of people from this election, what we've just gone through, I mean, it was short 36 days leading up to where we're at here right now.

04:54:23.940 And what you get from most people in communities that I'm involved with right now is this.

04:54:32.060 Well, is that the kind of feeling that you really want resonating throughout your country at a time where we're at right now with, you know, with the divisiveness going on between vaccines and passports and lockdowns and whatnot?

04:54:47.560 Not only was this a really terrible vanity project for Justin Trudeau to dump himself into, but to what it's done to make things worse, specifically through Canadians, I think is worse.

04:55:04.140 And I hope that that's something that he will have to wear going forward from here.

04:55:08.920 But when you look at the results of this election, you question whether anyone will actually wear it that does support the Liberal Party right now.

04:55:18.320 And that's kind of concerning.

04:55:20.520 Yeah, there's a lot of soul searching to be done.

04:55:22.860 I see you've still got the dirt of the field on you, so I will let you go.

04:55:26.060 I just wanted to catch you quickly before you took off there.

04:55:28.580 So thanks very much for joining.

04:55:30.420 We'll be watching things as they go ahead.

04:55:32.120 And I look forward to seeing you more on there.

04:55:33.640 Where do people find you online, Quick Dick?

04:55:35.080 Yeah, you can catch me at quickdickmcdick on YouTube.

04:55:40.400 Oh, man, Twitter.

04:55:42.800 Instagram's the only place I'm not quickdickmcdick.

04:55:44.920 I have to be QDmcdick there because apparently somebody had that name taken,

04:55:50.560 which good for them, I guess.

04:55:53.400 I don't know.

04:55:55.140 Great coverage tonight, guys.

04:55:57.440 Thanks very much.

04:55:58.300 Fantastic.

04:55:58.940 Thanks for talking to you.

04:55:59.800 okay so we have sean

04:56:07.720 production team i think erin o'toole is about to start speaking hello i'm afraid i can't hear you

04:56:16.280 but uh uh anyways i'm here with julius hoffman from the pit meadows maple ridge riding for with

04:56:23.560 the people's party i believe this riding has actually already been called for mark dalton

04:56:29.800 But with Julius Hoppen here, so tell me, a lot of the popular vote of the People's Party actually surprised, I think, a lot of pundits and did get more than anticipated.

04:56:41.680 But it doesn't look like it's resonated into any seats.

04:56:44.680 Can you tell me what you think on that?

04:56:48.280 Well, I was hoping that we would start to see some concentrated voting in certain ridings and getting some seats.

04:56:56.360 um the the amount of support that we've seen out in public is uh it was actually overwhelming and

04:57:07.800 you know what that might be oh sorry we're back yeah the like i was saying the the support that

04:57:15.400 we've witnessed um has been overwhelming and uh i was hoping that we would see more more actual

04:57:23.400 votes uh representing that support that we witnessed um we've been out in the public and and

04:57:30.760 a lot more uh positive response than than negative and however there is that majority that's silent

04:57:39.320 that uh as especially in sign waving you know we can see that there's a silent majority still

04:57:46.040 but those that are supportive of us are very very outgoing and expressive of it

04:57:53.400 all right as i mentioned i can't hear you guys but i'm gonna ask you at least one more question

04:57:56.920 uh tell me what do you think for is this set a good result for next election for the people party

04:58:03.080 to grow i believe it was over five percent of the popular vote yes i think so um uh we're we're

04:58:09.320 definitely going to keep try and keep that momentum happening uh we're going to plan some act uh

04:58:14.600 various activities to um to keep uh our party momentum going in between elections we gotta go

04:58:21.320 to yeah get our message out that's the main thing um we we certainly tried to get our platform out

04:58:31.160 to for people to consider and and and show the common sense uh approach from from it actually

04:58:38.120 just one more question so maxime he didn't win his seat uh do you uh believe that uh there should be

04:58:45.240 a leadership review do you believe he's the person to keep on or oh absolutely i i'm 100

04:58:50.760 supportive of maxine um i uh i'd love to see him continue and uh he did he did express um

04:58:58.920 that possibly there might be a leadership competition uh to see if if uh if there was

04:59:05.320 uh more support for for a new face but um he's got a tremendous following uh strong support and i

04:59:12.600 don't want to see him uh give up the leadership anytime soon all right guys well that's uh julius

04:59:18.280 julius hoffman hit meadows maple ridge riding um back to you thanks for that field hit sean

04:59:28.040 that's it thanks thanks again sean yeah thank you yeah hopefully we see

04:59:31.640 See you.

04:59:43.240 Those are lip-rating ones.

04:59:47.180 Practicing.

05:00:01.640 Okay, we might have to go back to the panel for a little while.

05:00:10.640 Has he resigned yet?

05:00:14.640 Well, we knew we wouldn't get through the night without...

05:00:17.640 ...the nation as leader of Canada's Conservatives, so it's fitting I address you later.

05:00:22.640 Now I'm getting buffered.

05:00:25.640 He's having some technical difficulties.

05:00:39.860 Aaron O'Toole, we're hoping to go live.

05:00:43.760 Region against region, neighbor against-

05:00:49.160 Well, okay, so at this point, Aaron O'Killis is getting his speech.

05:00:59.520 I doubt he's going to do anything as profound as resign or declare power or anything like that.

05:01:04.400 It's going to be a standard consolation speech, I imagine.

05:01:09.740 I'll see if I can't follow what he's saying on Twitter here.

05:01:13.780 Certainly.

05:01:14.300 But we do have Vitor Marciano back in the lobby there.

05:01:19.300 Perhaps we could pull him up there and get another rundown of where things are sitting.

05:01:40.300 Oh yeah, I got somebody.

05:01:43.300 Canadian press is predicting Shahal wins Calgary's Skyview.

05:01:48.940 Okay, so I don't know if you heard that, Vitor.

05:01:50.620 I look at your mic mute, but I think they're predicting Shahal is going to win, 0.99

05:01:54.800 so there might be a little liberal toenail hold in Calgary. 0.58

05:01:57.520 And Blake Deschardins has won Edmonton-Greaseback.

05:02:03.260 There is – it's very clear that, as I predicted, tomorrow the PPC won't matter at all.

05:02:11.860 But tonight they elected probably a dozen or more liberals across the country.

05:02:17.860 In Alberta, they're probably going to elect two. 0.99

05:02:21.160 If you take half of the PPC vote and give it to the conservatives, then the conservatives don't lose Skyview.

05:02:28.500 They may still lose Edmonton Center where it's a nip and tuck three-way race, but with 5% of the vote sitting with the PPC.

05:02:36.380 and Greasefly is going NDP. And if you take half of the PPC vote and give it to the conservatives,

05:02:44.640 which I think is, you know, a reasonable expectation, they win that seat too. So

05:02:49.240 Maxime Bernier has achieved what he set out to achieve. He elected more liberals across the

05:02:55.460 country, including, you know, probably a few in Alberta. He spent his final weekend campaigning

05:03:02.120 in Alberta and campaigning in Saskatoon. He didn't go to the boats. He didn't win his seat.

05:03:12.220 He probably picked up a few extra donations in Western Canada. His party, which isn't really

05:03:19.720 a party and belongs to him as a source of income, remains a source of income. And he made Justin

05:03:27.460 Trudeau's night because we've now run an election and exactly nothing has changed uh the popular

05:03:36.720 votes almost exactly the same for the conservatives probably go down a little bit once they count those

05:03:40.660 ballots in Ottawa uh it's still going up a little bit as they count more votes in Alberta

05:03:45.340 Saskatchewan um the liberals are in the same place in the popular vote they'll hold their seats

05:03:50.540 because of Maxime uh the bloc picked up a significant amount of popular vote in Quebec

05:03:56.080 but didn't pick up any extra seats uh the new democrats are up two or three seats

05:04:01.840 maybe they may end the evening at four because the greens are down one seat at least um

05:04:08.500 yeah it was 600 million and nothing's changed i mean o'toole was correct about that um

05:04:14.640 and trudeau has promised us that we'll go again in the next 18 months because he's not going to

05:04:20.140 stop trying for his majority uh maybe at that point you know there'll be less people getting

05:04:25.460 yeah well i i kind of wonder i mean are the it was a stalemate like it's not like trudo's coming 1.00

05:04:35.220 out of this strongly either i mean he put the party at risk he jumped into this election and

05:04:40.420 he didn't make gains i mean he was fortunate not to have taken losses um i i gotta wonder if some

05:04:46.340 of the sharks are starting to circle under his feet too i mean will he necessarily make it to

05:04:50.500 the next campaign okay um i don't know if you guys want to catch aaron but um he'll make it to the

05:04:58.020 next campaign because he brought his party from third to first and most of his caucus is completely

05:05:04.740 beholding to him so he'll make those gains are we going to try aaron again approach to combat

05:05:10.100 COVID-19. 18 months later, our nation needs that more than ever.

05:05:18.900 The Canadians have spent too many sleepless nights worrying about the health of the people

05:05:24.340 close to them, the loss of jobs and the future of their children. The pandemic has increased

05:05:30.420 the small differences between us and it has also aggravated the division amongst Canadians.

05:05:37.860 unfortunately this election has only made things worse but i'm here tonight once again more

05:05:46.420 determined to fight for our wonderful country five weeks ago mr trudeau asked for a majority

05:05:57.140 he said the minority parliament was quote unworkable but tonight canadians did not give

05:06:03.940 Mr Trudeau the majority mandate he wanted in fact Canadians sent him back with another minority at

05:06:15.940 the cost of 600 million dollars and deeper divisions in our great country just days ago

05:06:23.220 he said he would hold yet another election within 18 months if he didn't get his way

05:06:28.500 A few days ago, Mr. Trudeau was saying that he would hold another election in 18 months

05:06:37.300 if he didn't get what he wants.

05:06:40.020 Mr. Trudeau was hoping for a quick power grab.

05:06:43.540 Instead, he has thrust us into what he has promised will be 18 months of perpetual campaigning.

05:06:52.200 Our country is facing the most serious economic challenge since the Great Depression.

05:06:58.340 Even before the pandemic led to record debt and deficits, investment and jobs were leaving

05:07:04.400 Canada.

05:07:05.400 The prices are increasing from clothes to gas and everything.

05:07:15.680 Inflation is its highest level in 20 years and it is continuing to climb every day.

05:07:21.680 Families have difficulty in making ends meet.

05:07:27.460 face up to this challenge we have to work together we have to continue the fight too long

05:07:34.100 we have been divided for too long we have seen politicians pit region against region neighbor

05:07:42.740 against neighbor but when we are divided canadians get left behind mr trudeau thinks canadians

05:07:50.900 should endure 18 more months of divisive campaigning so he can try once again to get

05:07:56.260 the election result he wants. We need to heal the divides in Canada, not risk worsening them

05:08:03.140 for selfish gains. A few months ago, I told Conservatives that our party needed the courage

05:08:16.500 to change because Canada has changed. Over the past 36 days, we have demonstrated to Canadians

05:08:24.260 that we've set out on a path to engage more canadians in our conservative movement one

05:08:30.660 that addresses is the challenges of today while advancing the dreams of tomorrow ours is a

05:08:37.380 conservatism that dwells not in the past but learns from it to secure the future our new

05:08:47.860 conservative movement a new conservative movement to deal with today's challenges

05:08:53.220 a movement conservative conservative movement to actually realize the dreams of tomorrow

05:08:59.380 a conservative movement that's not only looking backwards but learns and moves forward

05:09:09.780 it is a conservatism that reveres strong communities and compassion for one another

05:09:16.980 for our environment and for those in need at home and abroad. It is a conservatism

05:09:24.260 that respects hard work and character and the fact that millions have come to this great country

05:09:30.580 for liberty and opportunity. It's a conservatism that believes reconciliation is more than a box

05:09:37.700 to check. It is the very keystone of Canada reaching its potential and it starts with clean

05:09:44.100 drinking water as a basic human right still denied to Indigenous children born today.

05:09:52.820 And above all else, it is a conservatism that believes Canada is the greatest country on

05:09:58.140 earth and that our best days are on the horizon.

05:10:02.820 A conservatism that builds Canada up.

05:10:19.180 Let's build it up.

05:10:24.320 In the months ahead, as Mr. Trudeau gears up for yet another election, we must continue

05:10:34.520 this journey to welcoming more Canadians to take another look at our party.

05:10:40.720 More people voted for Canada's Conservatives than any other party, and that's a strength

05:10:45.440 to build on.

05:10:49.320 Our support has grown, it's grown across the country.

05:10:53.060 But clearly, there is more work to do to earn the trust of Canadians.

05:11:01.380 We're the founding party of this country, we're the party of its future as well.

05:11:06.400 The Conservative Party will beat the Liberals, but only if the party continues to grow.

05:11:13.200 We have the courage to be bold and to have the courage to change.

05:11:19.320 We must hold fast to that courage.

05:11:22.580 We must show Canadians that we will not waver

05:11:25.800 in our commitment to growth.

05:11:28.000 On doit continuer de gagner la confiance des Canadiens.

05:11:31.160 We must continue to gain the trust of Canadians.

05:11:35.200 We've made progress, we've worked hard,

05:11:37.400 but the progress has to continue.

05:11:40.900 So, once in another 18 months,

05:11:44.020 we will take stock of what worked and what didn't.

05:11:48.980 And we will continue to put in the time showing more Canadians that they are welcome in the Conservative Party of Canada.

05:12:00.100 Above all, we must continue to show Canadians that whether you're black, white, brown, or from any race or creed,

05:12:08.760 Whether you're LGBTQ or straight, whether you are an indigenous Canadian or came to Canada five weeks ago or five generations ago.

05:12:19.160 Que le français soit votre premier.

05:12:22.660 Be the free French or first or second language. 0.65

05:12:26.120 Whether you worship on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays, every day or not at all, you are an important part of Canada and you have a place in the Conservative Party of Canada.

05:12:38.760 Friends, I'm standing here tonight because of the steadfast support of my true partner,

05:13:03.120 the love of my life, Rebecca.

05:13:05.760 you for being my rock and my safe harbor. And I'm so glad more Canadians got to know

05:13:14.060 the wonderful person you are these last five weeks. I also want to thank my children, Molly

05:13:19.860 and Jack, for being my inspiration. It's because of you that I believe so strongly

05:13:27.320 in securing Canada's future. My mother passed away when I was nine, but I know she is here

05:13:33.560 tonight because i see her in my daughter molly who shares her name i've been so grateful to have

05:13:40.760 my second mother to guide me to this very day i'm thankful that she

05:13:45.080 and my dad who inspired me into public service are here tonight thank you

05:13:54.840 to thank my fantastic campaign a team thanks for your trust thanks for your commitment to serving

05:14:03.000 this big and marvelous country thanks to our incredible slate of candidates and to our

05:14:08.840 fantastic volunteers as well at 18 to serve canada and its people and some of the people

05:14:16.440 i served with are in the room tonight i will never stop serving this great country

05:14:25.000 and my pride in canada has deepened these past five weeks as i've gotten to meet more

05:14:30.840 incredible Canadians from all walks of life. My family and I are resolutely committed to

05:14:37.320 continuing this journey for Canada. Tonight I talked to Mr Trudeau and I congratulated him

05:14:48.520 on a hard-won campaign. ...unity of this country and the well-being of its people first.

05:14:55.480 And I told him if he thinks he can threaten Canadians with another election in 18 months,

05:15:00.840 The Conservative Party will be ready.

05:15:07.040 And whenever that day comes, I will be ready to lead Canada's Conservatives to victory.

05:15:13.000 Thank you, Canada. Let's get to work.

05:15:22.920 All right, Peter Van Dusen watching along with you as we listen to Conservative leader Erin O'Toole.

05:15:27.380 clearly wants to keep the job

05:15:30.760 that he made clear at the end

05:15:32.080 he plans to continue to fight

05:15:33.340 did say we'll take stock of what worked

05:15:36.400 and what didn't work

05:15:37.680 that's going to be important

05:15:39.220 as conservatives go over

05:15:41.180 what worked and what didn't work

05:15:43.220 in this campaign

05:15:43.800 Corey I can't hear you

05:15:57.380 Thank you.

05:16:27.380 Got you for a second.

05:16:57.380 Thank you.

05:17:27.380 Thank you.

05:17:57.380 Oh, hold on, now I hear something.

05:18:27.380 okay i think we we're back here yes okay believe it or not this is broadcast was but it's a

05:18:43.860 just we've got some equipment starting to overheat now we've been running so much stuff through it

05:18:49.380 uh okay so we we finished with our tool speech there vitor what do you gather out of where he's

05:18:55.540 looking to go and what his attitude is right now? Well, I mean, he's trying to make the best of it.

05:19:00.500 And he sent a very clear signal to the party that he wants to hang on. The part that's complicated

05:19:08.100 for him is, you know, I'm looking at a handful of the seats where the conservatives are still

05:19:13.060 leading and they're still in British Columbia. There's reason to believe that he'll lose those

05:19:17.300 ones when they get counted in Ottawa tomorrow. So it's possible that he will end up with a result

05:19:23.600 that is essentially the same number of votes as Andrew Scheer got,

05:19:29.900 but might end up being two or three less seats.

05:19:32.340 As the evening's gone on, this election has looked ridiculously like the last election.

05:19:37.520 I mean, the Liberals are in the exact same spot.

05:19:39.740 Right now, the Conservatives are up one, but likely to lose a few.

05:19:43.400 The Bloc has done much better in Quebec in terms of overall vote count,

05:19:47.540 but they have the exact same number of seats.

05:19:50.000 Their vote's been very inefficient.

05:19:51.120 uh the new democrats are up uh about three right now um it's it's kind of a complicated mess and

05:20:00.200 i think o'toole is gonna find that that there'll be some knives and some pressure on for him tomorrow

05:20:05.080 where people are gonna ask well you know you moderated on a bunch of places where the party

05:20:11.040 didn't want you to moderate and you um ran a better campaign than sheer but you didn't do any

05:20:19.960 better you've got probably right now a little bit less popular vote and uh and and a little bit less

05:20:26.920 results right now he's tied but that's probably going to go down um he's going to be in a tough

05:20:32.400 tough spot i mean ultimately uh you know i think o'toole and team o'toole was counting on on team

05:20:40.640 singh uh delivering some results and that didn't happen the the new democrats did not uh did not

05:20:48.140 improve their performance very much and you know the conservatives needed the democrat the new

05:20:54.880 democrats to improve their performance because those were all going to be seats pretty much

05:20:58.400 that the liberals lost um that's not happened at this stage so um you know it's it's still going

05:21:06.680 to be tight um well it's not going to be tight i mean the liberals are going to be in the 150s

05:21:12.380 uh probably the high 150s might even be higher one or two seats higher than they were last time

05:21:17.660 even though they got they're getting less of the popular vote that's how efficient their

05:21:22.080 their votes are that's how frankly undemocratic canada is um and you know the knives will be

05:21:30.360 out for o'toole i i you know i uh i i wouldn't want to be in his position

05:21:36.280 well we might finally see conservatives in canada embrace the idea of electoral reform

05:21:42.660 two consecutive elections, winning the popular vote and getting a less than ideal result in the

05:21:49.540 seat count. Here's the interesting part, and nobody talked about this at all during this

05:21:55.700 election. We have to redistrict next year. 2021 is a census year. So next year, we take the census

05:22:04.260 numbers, which will be coming out, frankly, any day now. They've probably been delayed by the

05:22:07.620 election. Usually they'd be out right about now and reapportion seats. And then I'm going to let

05:22:15.800 in Alberta, I'll let Albertans in on a dirty little secret. The minute they reapportion seats,

05:22:21.120 Alberta will be underrepresented again because we're a growing part of the country and the

05:22:27.040 shrinking parts of the country will benefit again from the reapportionment. So not only do they

05:22:31.000 benefit from a formula that's stacked in their favor, the one thing that is not allowed to be

05:22:37.000 considered when you reapportion seats is who's growing and who's drinking so we're growing the

05:22:42.700 minute you know those seats will get reapportioned in 2022 they'll go into effect in 2023 and by that

05:22:48.880 point we'll already be behind the eight ball again after reapportionment uh and the formula doesn't

05:22:53.860 make it fair for alberta anyway so it's vitor i want to kind of go pick up where you you left off

05:23:00.880 at the end of your last answer before that, Aaron O'Toole is probably in a very difficult

05:23:07.200 position tonight. His speech doesn't sound like the guy who lost the election. I mean,

05:23:15.620 yes, he held what Andrew Scheer had achieved, but that was probably not considered a great

05:23:20.860 achievement. It wasn't a disaster, but this is a man who, he's a very different leader

05:23:28.220 Other than was elected by the Conservative members, and I don't think there's really

05:23:33.140 anyone who would dispute that, and generally, a leader might get away with that if they

05:23:39.260 can deliver victory.

05:23:40.840 You can say, well, you might not have liked some of this stuff, but I got you into government

05:23:46.020 and I must be right.

05:23:50.980 To make the...

05:23:51.980 Pivot's probably an understatement.

05:23:55.020 the very significant shift that he made in party policies away from conservative dogmas for better

05:24:01.700 or worse and to come up with virtually the exact same result as Aaron O'Toole did. Do you think,

05:24:10.600 how secure is Aaron O'Toole in this job? Because this doesn't sound like a man planning on

05:24:14.200 stepping down. He's not secure and he's not planning on stepping down and he took big risks

05:24:19.460 and he got no rewards for them. He can make the excuse that the PPC made it harder for him

05:24:24.920 that's going to be true. The analysis will show that quite dramatically. But he didn't get

05:24:30.980 anything for it. He kind of lied to win the leadership. He went from being the second most

05:24:37.140 red person two leaderships ago to claiming to be true blue this last one. It's coming back to

05:24:41.940 haunt him. Yeah, he's in a rough spot. But that's also why every paragraph in that speech mentioned

05:24:49.900 Trudeau's threat of calling another election in 18 months. That was sort of a hint to the party

05:24:54.380 that you can't afford another leadership race.

05:24:56.760 We're getting another election in 18 months.

05:24:59.560 You know, give me a second kick at the can. 0.99

05:25:00.920 I also found he was using some interesting, for lack of a better term, literary devices.

05:25:10.460 He was linking his moves as leader with growth, his direction for the party with going forward,

05:25:21.260 And then by implication that a return to the party's more traditional policies or perhaps I should, if I'm being a bit more cynical, a return to the leader they thought they were electing, that would be taking the party backwards and it would be shrinking the party.

05:25:43.760 What's going to be his argument for, I guess he said, yeah, election's coming, you can't afford, you don't have time to change leaders.

05:25:50.280 But in addition to the time argument, really, what's going to be his case before the Supreme Court of the Conservative Convention that reviews his leadership?

05:26:01.720 In all honesty, I think you nailed it.

05:26:04.940 He was using that literary advice about saying that he was looking forward, not looking backwards.

05:26:09.940 And that's an exercise in trying to get the pundits and the political commentators on his side to sort of prop him up.

05:26:16.820 you know, to, to get them to, to discuss any change in his leadership as a step backwards,

05:26:23.280 to get them to frame this discussion in a way that's favorable to him.

05:26:29.120 It's still a tough, tough spot. And frankly, his team made a mess of the last conservative

05:26:37.000 convention. And, you know, in some ways he suffered for that because, you know, it was

05:26:43.020 things that happened at that convention he was still getting attacked on even into the last week

05:26:47.320 of the campaign um i think when they do the post-mortem on this election as people do more

05:26:52.400 of the post-mortem they'll come to the conclusion that he had a pretty good start to the campaign

05:26:56.200 but a pretty weak finish to the campaign um you know having had a good start to it he could have

05:27:02.920 narrowed down to three things that he wanted to talk about every day or five things you know do

05:27:07.100 the harper's five priorities and then just go and hit on that every day um they stopped doing that

05:27:12.840 and they kind of hit him from the media a little bit i don't know why um you know if you're a soft

05:27:20.160 red tory you better be counting on at least some percentage of the media as your base and if you're

05:27:25.700 hiding from the media what's the point of being a soft red tory um so yeah he's in a rough spot

05:27:31.540 and again like i said right now he's in the exact same spot as sheer with a slightly lower

05:27:37.080 voter share count i think by the time they finish counting everything uh he'll have a slightly lower

05:27:44.180 voter share count and probably have three or four less seats than sheer did and that's going to be a

05:27:50.620 tough tough circumstance to recover from because it was an awful lot of people you know timo tool

05:27:56.440 people that had the knives out for uh for andrew sheer and you know some of those people are going

05:28:03.420 to be looking to, you know, to return some payback. Yeah, I think that's going to be coming

05:28:11.620 right away. I'm only half surprised that O'Toole did not try tonight to explicitly blame Jason

05:28:22.660 Kenny, although I don't think he has to say it himself, because the pundits are saying it for

05:28:28.000 him. For him to say it himself would probably look like poor form. It'd look like a sore loser.

05:28:33.420 and it looked like he's just not taking any responsibility for anything. 0.93

05:28:38.780 And everyone's already saying it for him.

05:28:42.840 I mean, right now, Alberta is a rumor mill. 1.00

05:28:49.500 I do not need to tell you.

05:28:50.880 You're probably hearing much of what we're hearing.

05:28:54.040 If Kenny's had roles, do you think that'll almost serve as a sacrifice to the gods

05:28:58.700 to satiate conservatives looking for blood right now?

05:29:02.580 Will that, if Kenny's head rolls, does that help O'Toole keep his attached to his head?

05:29:11.940 If Jason Kenney gets ousted, that in effect gives value to the unspoken argument that Jason Kenney kind of messed up the last week of this campaign for Aaron O'Toole.

05:29:25.140 I think there's some point to that.

05:29:28.560 I'm not sure that that's going to be enough.

05:29:31.880 it might make this easier. It won't make it not hard. You know, it becomes an argument that's

05:29:41.980 available for O'Toole. It does not become the overwhelming, convincing argument that swings

05:29:47.100 the day. I mean, ultimately, right now, he's not really delivered in 905 or in British Columbia.

05:29:57.560 And when you look at the close races that still remain in British Columbia, and you think

05:30:01.840 about how many you know some of those writings have six seven thousand ballots to be counted in

05:30:05.640 ottawa those ones you know i think the conservatives are going to lose the seat that they have in

05:30:10.940 in newfoundland i think they you know that they're ahead in newfoundland i think they're going to

05:30:15.080 lose a few more in bc i think they're going to lose a few in alberta so all of a sudden you know

05:30:20.080 if you dropped seats in in bc alberta um you really only picked up one or two in nova scotia

05:30:29.640 and New Brunswick, I think they picked up one in Quebec.

05:30:37.000 It's a tough argument to make that your strategy was a good strategy.

05:30:42.800 I don't know what his strategy is from here.

05:30:45.820 I mean, is he going to say we didn't go left or center enough?

05:30:51.260 I'm just not sure what his, like, other than the kind of very vague language

05:30:57.280 about we have to keep growing what's going to be his argument beyond vague bromides uh

05:31:06.800 for why he should keep the leadership and i suppose i'll stack a second question more of

05:31:11.040 a technical question that you might be aware of because you watch these things uh is there

05:31:15.600 a conservative convention scheduled um in a timeline that's likely to be before the next

05:31:21.120 provincial election let's say within the next year year and a half where his leadership would

05:31:24.960 come up for a vote his leadership definitely comes up to a vote at the next convention

05:31:29.920 but going from memory it's the a convention is every other year they just held one in 20 so he's

05:31:36.800 got to suffer one in 2022 he can do it at the back end of 2022 uh but he can also get national

05:31:44.400 council to delay it because they're a minority government situation uh or to call it earlier to

05:31:51.920 get it out of the way so that he can secure it you know all of the the mechanics of that are bad

05:31:57.280 uh the number one thing that he would need to do really quickly to sort of mitigate everything is

05:32:04.400 fix his relationship with his caucus and so you know for example he dumped derrick sloan

05:32:10.320 but you know leslin lewis won today he doesn't have a choice but to elevate her pretty high 0.96

05:32:16.160 um that's going to be he's never actually had to have other than derek sloan i guess once it's kind

05:32:24.080 of almost a rite of passage now that the the token socon candidate in the leadership race gets um

05:32:29.840 well he's you're not long for this political world once the leadership race is over and you've

05:32:34.480 delivered your votes to the guy who wins um so other than derek sloan he never had to actually

05:32:40.560 have any leadership rivals in his caucus he didn't have to have leslin lewis he didn't have to have

05:32:44.640 have Peter McKay. Leslyn Lewis, I think is actually, I mean, I know how well she liked

05:32:50.220 she is, but she never, it was almost a meme leadership campaign. She didn't actually really

05:32:54.360 have to shine in front of the camera much on her own. It was far more digital than that.

05:32:59.180 So we'll see how well she shines or not. And I know many elements in caucus were

05:33:05.800 less than pleased when the carbon tax policy was announced without even consulting them. It was

05:33:10.480 just presented to them. And they said, this is the policy. And if you don't like it,

05:33:14.800 you can walk out the door. But I have less insights into his relationship with the federal

05:33:20.380 caucus than I do in, say, the provincial dynamics here. How solid is O'Toole with caucus right now,

05:33:26.380 do you think? He's a little bit better than Jason Kinney is with his own caucus.

05:33:33.260 That bad. That bad. Well, he's done. Yeah. I don't think he's in a great spot.

05:33:40.480 um this is you know when you do these bold strategies and you don't bring people along

05:33:48.280 with you you gotta make those strategies work and lots of powerful and influential people in

05:33:55.840 that caucus didn't know those strategies were coming they uh had to chew on the inside of

05:34:01.060 their lip a lot to you know not talk about it too much and and not sabotage the leader in his bold

05:34:08.140 strategy. The bold strategies didn't work. You know, if I'm Aaron O'Toole, I'm trying to do

05:34:15.040 an awful lot of fence mending in the next week. And he didn't look particularly good at fence

05:34:23.360 mending before. So this could be a problem for him. Indeed. Well, Vittorio, I want to thank you

05:34:32.480 for your time. You've been more than generous with it, giving us a very good insight here.

05:34:36.540 we're going to have to have you on

05:34:39.140 at some point again

05:34:40.000 I normally don't run these shows

05:34:41.120 I do something once a week

05:34:42.800 but I don't really do the interviews

05:34:43.860 but I know Corey does

05:34:45.920 I'd love to have you reappear

05:34:48.560 on the Western Standard

05:34:49.260 provide your insight

05:34:50.120 I've just got a sneaking suspicion

05:34:52.520 this is not even the most interesting day

05:34:55.820 in politics this week

05:34:57.760 I have a horrible feeling

05:35:02.040 that you might be right

05:35:03.240 this is going to be probably

05:35:04.720 one of the most interesting weeks in politics in Alberta history.

05:35:09.060 I think today is going to probably go, could go down as the second most interesting day of the week.

05:35:15.800 Yeah, I would say so. I think there's a possibility of that.

05:35:19.560 You know, I hope you guys found some value in what I said.

05:35:23.240 I have a perspective that not everybody has all the time.

05:35:26.340 And it was an absolute pleasure talking to you, hearing what, you know, Jeff had to say

05:35:31.340 and and some of the other people and you know i wish we'd had a better day for the conservative

05:35:37.300 movement even if it was a slightly warm conservative movement i'm on record as saying

05:35:42.460 that for all of the things i didn't like about erin o'toole if he could deliver on one third of

05:35:47.040 his energy policy the albertan in me would be happy enough um but we're going to get trudeau's

05:35:52.680 energy policy for the next little while and uh hopefully hopefully uh whatever damage he does

05:35:59.980 isn't permanent, so. Well, before you go, I'll leave you with this thought. I actually think

05:36:05.620 tonight is a, in a really weird, perverse way, better for conservatism. It is not better for

05:36:12.840 the conservative party. Well, actually, in the long term, I think it is better for the conservative

05:36:16.340 party. Think of it this way. If you are an ideological liberal or social, like small L, 0.87

05:36:23.480 center left liberal, and you don't really care about what party's in power, you would want Aaron

05:36:28.960 no tool to win tonight, because then you get to lock in the other major governing party

05:36:34.620 of Canada with the basic tenets of your ideology around carbon taxes, gun control, well, now

05:36:43.720 gun control, that was a new one, I suppose, but a whole host of these other issues, deficits,

05:36:50.420 and that would become, just the way the revulsion against deficits became mainstream for all

05:36:57.360 parties left and right in the 90s, that was a victory for the right because no matter who was

05:37:01.120 in power, everybody was for balancing the budget. I think it would have been a victory for kind of

05:37:07.440 center-left progressivism, moderate progressivism for O'Toole to win tonight because then you get

05:37:12.000 to lock in the conservatives. The fact that he went down this road and failed to achieve victory,

05:37:18.560 I think is probably going to, I would bet it probably means the end of his leadership

05:37:23.840 and a pretty nasty schism in the conservative party where you're going to have another leadership

05:37:29.020 election where everybody's going to try and out-true-blue each other, but no one's going to

05:37:31.980 know if any, you can't even trust the written promise anymore. It's going to be a nasty, nasty

05:37:36.420 fight. But I think for conservatism, they needed to learn a lesson. They might have, they might

05:37:44.900 learn it from tonight, but I've been wrong many times before. Derek, I'm probably going to write

05:37:51.120 something for uh jen gerson's asked me to write something for the line on the future of the

05:37:55.320 conservative party i've been a long time conservative i was there on the original

05:37:59.120 national council when this party was put together i'm going to write something heretical um because

05:38:04.600 i'm getting to the stage of believing that we need to like explore some heresies uh before we can

05:38:09.620 win and if we don't win we're we're kind of doomed because you know we can't actually handle too many

05:38:17.020 more liberal government wins the amount of damage they're doing with each successive liberal

05:38:22.360 government uh extends this further and further and further into my daughter's lifetime and uh

05:38:29.040 i'm i'm scared for that so uh you know conservatives need to think outside the box

05:38:33.440 thank you for having me on it's been a lot of appreciate it thank you very much i look forward

05:38:38.380 to reading it on the line sounds good bye-bye uh we're going to bring uh actually we're going

05:38:43.080 bring Aaron Gunn in just a minute. Let's just get an update. Actually, we're going to go to Aaron

05:38:47.940 Gunn now, but we're going, just to note, we're going to be standing by. Justin Trudeau is going

05:38:55.120 to be speaking very soon with his victory speech, having secured three, his third term, second

05:39:04.660 conservative minority government. So let's bring Aaron Gunn into the show right now. Aaron, how are

05:39:10.620 you doing? Aaron, you are on mute. We cannot hear you. Aaron, I'm going to get my grandma

05:39:19.160 to teach in tech. There he goes. There we go. I'm just taking the results as I'm sure

05:39:25.160 all of you are right now. And one of the most, I don't know the record if there's ever been

05:39:29.680 that back-to-back elections that have mirrored each other as they have tonight. And I think

05:39:34.140 just might be the closest I've at least ever heard of back-to-back elections that so little

05:39:39.060 changes i also think this is the lowest share of the popular vote someone has ever formed

05:39:46.020 government with in canadian history although you might need to double check that i know i i'm

05:39:50.660 almost positive you're correct because the liberals had that record last time

05:39:54.580 when they when they won the 2019 election they have an even smaller share of the popular vote

05:39:59.140 this time so they just beat their previous record um but i i would i had a chance to say there's

05:40:05.620 There's also another record in here, we're going to have to fact check this tomorrow,

05:40:08.680 but I can say with a fair degree of confidence that no Canadian election has ever had the

05:40:14.420 two biggest parties receive less than two-thirds of the vote.

05:40:20.180 That is unheard of.

05:40:21.180 Between the Conservatives and the Liberals, they've certainly got more than two-thirds

05:40:24.440 of the seats combined because we have a first-past-the-post system.

05:40:27.440 But in terms of their combined share of the popular vote, the two biggest parties are

05:40:34.180 still a hair shy of two-thirds of the popular vote. Aaron, do you think that says something

05:40:40.180 about how people are feeling about the main options in front of them right now?

05:40:45.640 Yeah, I think you can read a lot into that. I think you can, the Conservatives seem to have

05:40:51.860 hit a ceiling over the past two elections that they can't seem to get through. And I think,

05:40:57.920 Justin Trudeau, I think there's going to be some very serious questions being asked within the

05:41:01.820 liberal camp because i wonder if it is based basically mathematically impossible for this

05:41:06.680 guy to ever get a majority government i think there's just too many canadians have already

05:41:10.720 made up their mind that they're not going to vote for justin trudeau under practically any

05:41:15.340 circumstance so i think that's something that the liberals are going to have to think a lot

05:41:19.100 a long and hard about

05:41:20.280 all right i just i'm still processing this you know i i would have anticipated some movement

05:41:29.800 some change. I've, I'm disgusted. I mean, I'll be blunt about it. I've never been through such a

05:41:36.840 huge, expensive, divisive democratic exercise to change absolutely nothing. I mean, even a larger

05:41:44.480 liberal win, I mean, life would suck, but it would show that there was a purpose to this.

05:41:50.460 And we're all coming out of this worse for it. Nobody is coming out of this election better.

05:41:55.020 No party's coming out better. No leader's coming out better. I can't see any Canadian sitting

05:41:59.140 tonight, looking at things, saying, boy, I'm sure glad we did that, except maybe a few contractors

05:42:03.680 to the parties. It's like trench warfare. It's just the parties are slugging at each other,

05:42:10.160 and we're just sending poor scrutineers into no man's land. They get shot up,

05:42:15.460 and nothing's changing. It's the battle of the Somme all over, and there's just ballot boxes

05:42:23.640 laying spread everywhere. Dave, you've given us news. Yeah, I mean, to me, Canada's the big loser

05:42:34.880 tonight. Six hundred million dollars down the drain for no good reason. Well, we borrow that

05:42:40.840 in a day. Still, look what it could have done. It could have been spent on so much else. As Corey

05:42:48.660 said if there'd have been some change, any change, you know, give us a scrap. Canada as a country

05:42:57.060 comes out worse because the bickering and the partisanship isn't going away. And it's only

05:43:03.680 going to get more bitter. Those who said Trudeau, if Trudeau won, they would, you know, join a

05:43:09.280 Western separatist party. Well, you know, they'll be joining the Western independents tomorrow or

05:43:14.600 the maverick tomorrow but you know nothing changes in canada sun comes up tomorrow

05:43:21.520 judo's still our great leader and uh hang on uh uh erin uh let's talk a bit about bc that's what

05:43:31.080 i said i wanted to talk about with you last time we didn't really get to uh what are some of the

05:43:35.680 interesting races you saw in bc some of the interesting holds and some of the interesting

05:43:40.180 flips? Well, I would say it's still a little bit early in the night in BC, actually, to call some

05:43:47.360 of these nail biters. I'm keeping a close eye on Nanaimo on Vancouver Island. The NDP currently

05:43:53.940 have a 1% lead there. That's a seat formerly held by the Greens, who are now in third, kind of part

05:44:00.640 of their cross-country collapse. And then we have seats moving in different directions. It looks

05:44:07.760 like Tamara Jensen has lost her seat in Cloverdale Langley City or hasn't lost it yet I guess she's 0.94

05:44:15.560 down by three percent so that's going to be another nail-biter and then I will say one that

05:44:22.820 I'm really disappointed to and let me just navigate it on my screen here is it looks like

05:44:27.980 the Conservatives have lost Stevenson or Stevenston Richmond East which was Kenny

05:44:34.640 uh choose seat who is a very vocal critic of uh china's communist regime and they launched a lot 1.00

05:44:41.640 of attacks uh against him through the chinese canadian community through whatsapp or or whatever

05:44:47.120 that we um there's that other social media yeah so um that's kind of unfortunate to see even there's

05:44:54.620 still a whole bunch of nail biters though um but it seems like the liberals honestly in the lower 0.76

05:44:59.320 mainland are getting kind of a lot of those swing seats are going their way in richmond

05:45:03.380 in Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, and so the one that I'm still keeping an eye on, Nanaimo,

05:45:10.760 and then another one is over in Kootenai, Colombia.

05:45:16.040 Rob Morrison is back in the lead.

05:45:17.680 He's up 4%, the PPC's drawing 7% in that riding.

05:45:22.300 That's the riding that just borders southern Alberta there, kind of just west of Lethbridge.

05:45:30.020 I will note de facto Green Party leader Elizabeth May winning comfortably in Saanich Gulf Islands.

05:45:39.920 Winning comfortably with just 36% of the vote, actually some of these weird Vancouver Island,

05:45:47.580 like essentially four-way races, well the Conservatives are never really in contention

05:45:51.780 but actually well yeah they're actually second or technically third but like third by a hair.

05:45:59.060 four-way races on Vancouver Island. I know, Aaron, I met you actually working on a campaign on

05:46:04.420 Vancouver Island, and those are some weird creatures on the island where, vote split?

05:46:10.500 What's a vote split? Let's split the vote 12 ways. You could win a seat with 20% of the vote.

05:46:17.940 Do you think this means Elizabeth May is going to have to be Green Leader? She's obviously going to 1.00

05:46:22.980 become, have to be interim Green Leader. I mean, NMA Paul, I don't know if she was in the right

05:46:28.020 or the wrong and that internal fight that's not uh not my cup of tea but uh she seems pretty toast

05:46:35.220 is elizabeth may gonna become the new leader of the green party beyond intern do you think

05:46:39.700 are they gonna go back to the drawing board and elect another new leader

05:46:45.700 well a green party internal politics is not my specialty either um but elizabeth may i i mean i

05:46:51.620 thought she was she was hanging them up for for uh for life so we'll see if she jumps back in i 1.00

05:46:57.620 I don't know who this new Green Party guy that's been elected in Kitchener is or what his deal is or if they're just going to have another leadership race.

05:47:04.460 But one of the in a in a night where the main story is pretty boring and nothing changes, there are some sub stories that are quite interesting.

05:47:13.860 And one has definitely been the national collapse of the green vote.

05:47:17.980 It's actually a kind of bizarre that we've had PPC go up, Green Party crash, a bunch of seats change hands on either side of the country.

05:47:25.820 And yet kind of the top line result is still pretty much the same.

05:47:30.200 It's really odd.

05:47:32.800 The two big parties have been so boring and then static in their trench warfare that we spend so much time now just talking about the two.

05:47:41.960 Well, actually, by popular vote.

05:47:43.940 No, the block did fairly fine by popular vote.

05:47:45.940 We talk about the marginal parties.

05:47:47.320 We talk about the PPC and the Greens and their ups and downs, because that's really all there

05:47:55.660 has that's been of any interest this campaign, the collapse of the Greens, but still getting

05:48:00.420 two seats, and then the surge of the PPC, not getting any.

05:48:08.460 The NDP have really underperformed today.

05:48:13.080 The seats you're watching in British Columbia, I know that's really where the NDP needed

05:48:16.980 to perform strongly was around the lower mainland and on Vancouver Island are there any seats right

05:48:23.300 now do you think they could still flip that they're under right now because I know BC has

05:48:27.620 got so many different kinds of fights you've got NDP conservative fights you've got NDP liberal

05:48:33.460 fights you've got three-way fights you've got four-way fights with the greens for god's sakes

05:48:38.660 BC's got the most diversity of these kinds of of battles it's it's fascinating stuff

05:48:45.140 What do you think happened to the NDP in BC, and I suppose nationally, that has them on?

05:48:52.940 No, I'm sorry, I jumped the gun there, no pun intended.

05:48:59.420 We've got Liberal leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau walking to the podium right

05:49:03.920 now.

05:49:04.920 Aaron, I want to thank you for your time this evening.

05:49:07.980 You've been very generous with it, provided a lot of great insight.

05:49:11.300 I'm sure we'll be speaking again soon.

05:49:14.140 wonderful evening out on the left coast you too derek have a good one cheers

05:49:23.900 much friends uh you are sending us back to work with a clear mandate to get canada through this

05:49:31.340 pandemic and to the brighter days ahead my friends that's exactly what we are ready to do

05:49:38.540 There are still votes to be counted, but what we've seen tonight is that millions of Canadians

05:49:50.700 have chosen a progressive plan. Some have talked about division, but that's not what

05:49:57.140 I see. That's not what I've seen these past weeks across the country. I see Canadians 1.00

05:50:03.780 standing together together in your determination to end this pandemic together for real climate

05:50:12.580 action for ten dollar a day child care for homes that are in reach for middle-class families

05:50:24.500 for our shared journey on the path of reconciliation as canadians you've elected parliamentarians

05:50:33.780 to deliver on all this and our team our government is ready

05:50:47.140 when i became prime minister six years ago i couldn't know what the future held we

05:50:54.740 didn't know that we'd be facing up to a once in a century pandemic or a worldwide economic crisis

05:51:03.380 but what i did know is that together canadians that can overcome any obstacle and that is exactly

05:51:11.300 what we will continue to do i have heard you i know you don't want to hear any more talk of

05:51:20.740 elections and politics but you want us to concentrate on the work that is necessary for you

05:51:27.860 just want to get back to the things you love not worry about this pandemic

05:51:33.380 or about an election, that you just want to know that your Members of Parliament of

05:51:38.200 all stripes will have your back through this crisis and beyond.

05:51:44.620 The moment we face demands real, important change.

05:51:50.800 And you have given this Parliament and this government clear direction.

05:51:56.980 You made a choice.

05:52:00.500 You gave to Parliamentaries a clear mandate so that we put an end to this pandemic once

05:52:07.060 and for all and build a better future.

05:52:10.440 You have elected a government in Ottawa that will fight for you and that will deliver for

05:52:17.820 you every day.

05:52:19.840 We hear you.

05:52:21.740 We hear you when you say you want more daycare spaces and a stronger healthcare system, affordable

05:52:30.280 housing and good green jobs to continue moving forward on the path to

05:52:36.280 reconciliation investments for the middle class and for all those who are

05:52:41.320 working hard to join it

05:52:52.840 friends i am ready to carry on with the work my team is ready

05:53:00.280 but above all tonight i want to take the time to thank some people some special people

05:53:08.120 the other parties and their families thank you for being part of this important moment

05:53:15.320 political life isn't easy this is the path you choose because you believe

05:53:20.680 in serving those around you thank you for your service to the election

05:53:30.280 To the Elections Canada staff and volunteers who signed up to be part of

05:53:36.380 this democratic process and who will be working around the clock to count votes

05:53:41.860 and tally results, thank you. This election has confirmed that our

05:53:53.480 democracy and our institutions remain strong. And to my fellow Canadians, there is no greater honor

05:54:02.920 than serving you and serving this country. If you voted for our party, thank you. Thank you

05:54:10.440 for putting your trust in our team to keep moving forward for everyone. And if you did not vote for

05:54:18.760 us I want you to know that we will stand up for you and work for you every single day

05:54:31.800 because no matter how you voted just like no matter where you come from what language you

05:54:38.280 speak the color of your skin the way you pray I hear you I hear you when you say that we can

05:54:46.280 only move forward if no one is left behind. Our shared future is built vote by vote, door by door,

05:54:56.280 and above all, person by person. That's something I learned when I first ran in Papineau 12 years ago.

05:55:11.240 during the last 12 years as a the member for papino i had the opportunity to read to so many people

05:55:24.680 from different backgrounds and lifestyles and it's an honor for me to represent you so it's with you

05:55:31.480 that i started this wonderful adventure so thank you for your trust as well and i will continue

05:55:37.160 to be there for you my friends from papino riding there are a lot of people who've worked hard very

05:55:46.520 hard to get here tonight first off my fellow liberals my friends congratulations whether

05:55:53.720 you're a candidate staff or volunteer i know there have been a lot of late nights and early

05:55:58.520 mornings there have been tough days but together we've done something incredible bravo mes amis

05:56:06.840 bravo friends

05:56:14.280 and above all i would like to thank my family as always my mom who's here tonight

05:56:19.720 who started going through election nights like this when she was a little girl when

05:56:29.720 my grandfather was running for parliament in vancouver north but thank you mom for always being

05:56:36.280 there and sophie 12 years ago when we made the decision to become involved together in politics

05:56:49.720 it's because we wanted to defend our values,

05:56:53.440 because we wanted to contribute to build a stronger Canada.

05:56:57.600 And since the very beginning, we did it together.

05:57:01.400 So thank you.

05:57:11.680 And to my children, Xavier.

05:57:13.360 Ella Grace.

05:57:14.240 Ella Grace here.

05:57:15.160 And Adrien, who's been sleeping for some hours now upstairs.

05:57:19.720 As we also need to do, we're working hard to build a better future for you, a better

05:57:26.240 future for your generations and those to follow.

05:57:30.400 Every day, you remind me that this work is important, this work that we're doing together.

05:57:36.500 So thank you for your patience while I have to be off on the job.

05:57:43.580 And thank you for the sacrifices that you are doing.

05:57:49.720 We've all worked so hard over the last few weeks and over the last few years, and we

05:57:56.140 have come so far.

05:57:59.040 My friends, tonight I think of something Prime Minister Wilfrid Laurier said as his generation

05:58:06.000 was at the dawn of a new century.

05:58:09.180 He said, let them look to the past, but let them still more look to the future.

05:58:17.280 us not forget the past and the dark days we have come through together but let us still more look

05:58:24.960 to the future and all that is still to come and all that we have still to build together let us

05:58:33.040 feel the warmth of a new dawn and above all let us seize the promise of a brand new day

05:58:40.560 Thank you, my friends.

05:58:42.560 Thank you, my friends.

05:58:44.560 Thank you, everyone.

05:58:46.560 Thank you, everyone.

05:58:54.560 All right, Peter Van Dusen watching along with you.

05:58:57.560 That's our last speech to hear tonight from Justin Trudeau,

05:59:00.560 the Prime Minister, the Liberal leader, as we,

05:59:03.560 you heard him invoke the words as you will for Laurier,

05:59:06.560 getting close to that dawn of a new day.

05:59:09.560 it's uh it's almost here uh restating justin trudeau did the liberal promises now that they're

05:59:17.000 back as a minority government affordability on housing and reconciliation on managing

05:59:21.880 a way through the pandemic climate change uh i hear you he said uh get back uh we want to get

05:59:28.820 back to normal and don't want to hear about an election so we'll see that's the kind of talk

05:59:34.040 How long does that last in a new parliament?

05:59:36.940 But sending out a...

05:59:38.440 Well, folks, we've just heard from Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,

05:59:43.800 re-elected for his third straight term,

05:59:47.900 one majority and now two consecutive minority governments.

05:59:52.580 I mean, as I said earlier, if you went to a coma two years ago and woke up today,

06:00:00.140 you'd think you might have missed the afternoon.

06:00:01.900 It's the exact same thing.

06:00:05.220 Final thoughts, Corey?

06:00:07.460 Just as you said, there's a whole lot more interesting going to be coming up out of this.

06:00:12.800 So, I mean, we've come up with a stalemate on the federal front,

06:00:15.700 but there's a whole lot of machinations, political churning provincially and federally

06:00:21.480 to look forward perhaps with dread, but all the same is coming.

06:00:26.700 Final thought to you, Dave.

06:00:28.560 All eyes back on Alberta as of tomorrow morning.

06:00:31.620 I can promise our viewers, those of you interested in Alberta, it's going to be an interesting week.

06:00:38.780 We've got some very interesting irons in the fire.

06:00:41.780 And, of course, we're going to be working every trapline we've got about what I think is a fairly good expectation,

06:00:50.120 that things are not going to be very quiet in the Federal Conservative Caucus either in the coming weeks and months.

06:00:55.980 I really want to thank all of you who watched with us today.

06:00:59.120 We had a few technical difficulties towards the end, but we have really, really, just wildly improved the quality of the broadcast.

06:01:08.500 We've had a big part of that.

06:01:10.180 There's really two to thank here.

06:01:12.060 One is the producers of today's show.

06:01:15.220 James Finkbeiner are a director of operations at the Western Standard.

06:01:20.320 And Melanie Rizdin, who is a new Alberta correspondent with the Western Standard in our Calgary office here.

06:01:28.520 and she has done great work helping to produce today's show.

06:01:33.000 And most importantly, we have to thank Western Standard members

06:01:36.240 who generously support the Western Standard every month.

06:01:41.700 Without you, there would be no Western Standard.

06:01:44.380 Without you, we wouldn't be able to do anything like what we're doing right now.

06:01:47.920 It's such a privilege to be doing it.

06:01:50.180 I'm so grateful for the position that we're in right now.

06:01:53.040 So thank you.

06:01:53.780 And if you're not yet a member of the Western Standard,

06:01:55.240 go to westernstandardonline.com, click on Membership.

06:01:58.000 You could try it free for 15 days before you get charged a penny.

06:02:02.580 It's only $10 a month or $99 a year to support bailout-free Western media.

06:02:07.520 Thank you all so much for joining us tonight.

06:02:10.120 I know it's not the result many of you were looking for.

06:02:13.680 In fact, I don't think it was even all that interesting.

06:02:16.040 But I think we had some really interesting guests.

06:02:18.200 I think we had some very interesting analysis.

06:02:21.220 And I hope that we've been able to contribute to the democratic debate for Western Canadians here.

06:02:26.960 What do you have against Hawaiian pizza, by the way?

06:02:29.520 It's an abomination.

06:02:30.940 Okay, I finally fully agree with Derek on something.

06:02:33.740 It's the only thing in which I'm a totalitarian.

06:02:36.260 I'm a full totalitarian.

06:02:37.420 This is what I'm stuck with working on.

06:02:39.920 If, you know, I'm not a dictator in many places, but I'm a dictator in the office.

06:02:44.980 And I am decreeing, I'm signing an order right now, banning Hawaiian pizza in the Western Standard office.

06:02:50.580 I'm forming a union.

06:02:53.340 I'm a...

06:02:54.340 How are the workers?

06:02:55.140 I'm folding the company.

06:02:57.060 James is in.

06:02:58.060 You heard it here.

06:03:00.340 I have just closed the Western Standard.

06:03:03.520 Thank you all very much for watching.

06:03:05.640 Very much appreciate it.

06:03:07.520 God bless the West.

06:03:08.760 Solidarity.

Western Standard - September 21, 2021

LIVE： Election Night 2021

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