A special election edition of the Western Standard's election edition featuring a Western Canadian perspective on the campaign trail. Hosted by Dave Naylor, Corey Morgan, and Shauna Lane, the three hosts are joined by a special guest to discuss the candidates and the issues at stake tonight.
00:23:14.400You know, when you have people in Alberta that are ready to separate,
00:23:18.580I believe that it is important to speak about, you know,
00:23:21.680changing the equalization formula to be less generous,
00:23:24.800being sure that we'll build pipelines.
00:23:26.560That's important for the prosperity of our country, but also for the unity of our country.
00:23:34.560Max, we had some fun with predictions a few minutes before you came on.
00:23:40.560All pundits seem to think it's going to be a minority.
00:23:44.560The question is, will it be liberal or conservative?
00:23:48.560Do you have any predictions early this evening?
00:23:51.560I really don't know. You know, I'm concerned. I'm working about our party and I know that it would be a minority government. But for me, a conservative minority or liberal minority, it would be the same. They have the same platform on climate change. It will impose a carbon tax on pipelines. They won't do anything to build pipelines on mass immigration, on vaccine passport. They offer a mandatory vaccine passport.
00:24:19.560So they're the same for me, a conservative minority or liberal minority, that would be the same.
00:24:26.140I believe that the PPC will be the real opposition after this campaign, because with our platform, we will be the real opposition and we are speaking about the real issues for Canadians.
00:24:40.620Max, you've obviously really tapped into the movement around mandatory vaccine passports and lockdowns.
00:24:48.220lockdowns, that has very much propelled your campaign forward. I mean, your party has gone
00:24:53.320from, I mean, most polls had the party, but somewhere between one and two percent, really
00:24:58.580when the RIT dropped to the lowest polls have you at six percent, the highest polls have
00:25:03.860you just a little over 11 percent right now. I think very much driven by the lockdown and
00:25:12.820mandatory vaccine passport issues, but we're going to be coming, I mean, every election's
00:32:54.100Well, so far so good with, you know, we've got a great viewership.
00:32:58.700We've got a lot to look forward to and a lot to talk about.
00:33:01.760And in the usual nature of Canada, we're going to be moving from east to west.
00:33:05.420So what are your, I guess we'll start with your predictions.
00:33:09.220I mean, Dave just ran through what's kind of coming in, but they're pretty early numbers.
00:33:12.040What do you figure is going to happen on the east coast there?
00:33:14.700Well, look, for the Conservative Party of Canada to have a good night, it needs to win the riding in Newfoundland of Bonavista-Burin-Trinity.
00:33:24.580So that's a riding where there's a strong conservative candidate that's well known in the community.
00:33:30.440It's a riding that in the past has voted conservative on a number of different elections.
00:33:36.560And if we're going to see the conservatives win a minority or a majority government, it's going to have to start in that riding.
00:33:44.700The other thing that we need to see happen is the riding of St. John's East.
00:33:50.780So that's a riding which used to vote Liberal.
00:33:55.060It became a new Democratic Party stronghold in Newfoundland.
00:34:00.280And the Liberals really want that riding.
00:34:03.400So if the Conservatives can win Bonavista, Burren, Trinity, and the Liberals can lose St. John's East,
00:34:11.880That could be the start of a potential change as we work our way west.
00:34:20.020In Nova Scotia, there's a couple of ridings that the Conservatives need to pick up and hold.
00:34:26.780So the federal riding of West Nova is one the Conservatives desperately need to hold on to.
00:34:33.940The other one to look for in Nova Scotia is Cape Breton Canso.
00:34:38.020It's an incredibly important riding for the Conservatives.
00:41:06.560And what's your prediction for the night?
00:41:08.280I think it'll be a liberal minority, I think 154, 155 seats to 120 for the Conservatives
00:41:16.640with the 30 to 35 for both the block and the um ndp with the greens maybe pulling one out and i don't
00:41:27.680i i hate to say it but i don't think the ppc is going to be strong enough to win anything
00:41:32.800okay well and to segue i'll just respond to one comment or two too is confused perhaps thinking
00:41:36.960you know that we're claiming western alienation isn't an issue i mean it most certainly is and
00:41:41.120it's been one for a long time and it's going to be it just hasn't become an election issue in this
00:41:45.600one. I mean, you know, Jay Hill and the Maverick have been out there, but it's just been overwhelmed
00:41:50.080by the COVID events, the other things that it just didn't quite hit the docket like it would
00:41:54.800have typically, but it's not going away by any means. No, definitely not. I mean, it is, it's
00:41:59.600something that is on the forefront of people's minds, but given the events of the last couple
00:42:03.680months with the case numbers coming up, with public health officials coming out crying,
00:42:07.920you know, on CTV news or on global news, and you've got, of course, Joe Vipond out there
00:42:15.200doing his thing you've essentially created an environment where people are going to be going
00:42:19.680to the ballot box and the one thing on their mind is going to be do i want to be stuck in my house
00:42:24.000locked inside for the next four months or do i want to vote for something that really
00:42:33.920you know isn't the direct issue right now and i think this is going to be the covet election i
00:42:39.040think that's why we've seen the surge in the ppc it's not the western alienation isn't an issue
00:42:44.000It's just that's the ballot box question this time around, especially when it comes to that protest vote.
00:42:48.340I think one of Maverick's biggest challenges is the existence of the PPC.
00:42:52.820I know that there's a lot of overlapping policy, but it's just one of those things where until those two parties can find a way to work together,
00:42:59.980it might be challenging for either one of them to break through in much of Canada.
00:43:04.100Well, it's hard to get the COVID out of your mind when you go to vote when you've got to put a chin diaper on in order to go in and do it.
00:43:10.440So it is literally in your face when you go to cast your ballot.
00:49:09.200I knew I had to mail my speeding tickets to somebody with that sort of title or name or
00:49:13.480something like that. How are you doing tonight, Jonathan? I'm doing well, and listen, if you have
00:49:16.880more speeding tickets, I can represent you now. That's right. Jane just pays them for now,0.74
00:49:23.660but if I get too many, we might have to come to that yet. So we've been kind of hitting everybody
00:49:28.760with it. You know it's got to come. What are your predictions? Where do you think we're going to
00:49:32.940head tonight? Give us your ballpark, Jonathan. I'll tell you this. This is probably the closest
00:49:37.400election in any of our collective lifetimes here. It's too close to call. The one thing
00:49:43.140I'm going to put my money on is a minority government. Politics is becoming more and0.79
00:49:46.780more polarizing. And as we see some of the results from Atlantic Canada, some like really
00:49:51.280razor thin margins here, it's very certain to have recounts in multiple writings. I am
00:49:59.540concerned about the increased use of mail-in ballots. They've always been somewhat
00:50:03.600controversial. My concern always with mail-in ballots is
00:50:07.420the ultimate secrecy is behind the ballot box
00:50:11.100where an individual goes in. You don't know exactly who the mail-in ballot's
00:50:15.520going to. If the person's subject to undue influence, we don't know.
00:50:19.100The best option is still an X on the piece of paper.
00:50:23.300Steve, you got any questions for Jonathan while we got him?
00:50:28.300Jonathan, can you talk about the effect that
00:50:31.280premier kenny had on this uh election campaign well it's uh i'll tell you this i say this as a
00:50:37.600uh conservative party federal supporter and a ucp supporter provincially uh the pandemic response
00:50:43.600has been abysmal i uh the pandemic uh response in the province of alberta has managed to efficiently
00:50:51.360uh upset uh people on the left right and center i have not met one person who is happy with the
00:50:57.520pandemic response some people want more restrictions some people want less restrictions
00:51:01.680but the most important thing is that the it appears that there's a real instability in the
00:51:07.040whole government as a result of of the pandemic response and it's the instability of any government
00:51:13.200that paralyzes it and frankly plays into the ndp's hand here um the fact that i see mr kenny who
00:51:20.960who I've known for many years, listed as a factor by both federal and even the municipal campaign here
00:51:28.520by candidates on the left as a negative, he's kind of become a lightning rod here.
00:51:33.340Why do you think the PPC has got a purple wave in Alberta?
00:51:39.280So the PPC, first off, the PPC is kind of the Maxine Bernier party.
00:51:44.840And I know he was on here earlier. I've met him a few times.
00:51:47.500There isn't a constitution in the party.
00:51:49.480It's really what he goes and dictates, but it is attracting a lot of disaffected Conservatives.
00:51:54.880The question I always ask myself, are these votes that would not show up at all?
00:52:00.580Or are these votes that are bleeding off of the Conservatives?
00:52:04.020I don't think the PPC will elect a single seat tonight, but it remains to be seen if the PPC is actually a vote spoiler and ends up electing Justin Trudeau in some writings, like some of the mainstream media has been predicting.
00:52:17.920Do you think it's a case that they'll bleed from the Tories, or will they stir the usual non-voters, those who don't normally go and vote?
00:52:29.080I will take the Abraham Simpson quote from The Simpsons, a little from column A and a little from column B.
00:52:34.640In Alberta, if they bleed off 5, even 10%, that's still probably enough to elect a full swath of blue candidates,
00:52:42.680with the exception of Edmund Stratkona, which will likely go back to the NDP.
00:52:46.620What I'm worried about is that the PPC is strong enough in Ontario.
00:52:50.480They're likely not strong enough in Quebec.
00:52:52.080And you see Maxime Bernier showing up in Alberta and not in his own riding of votes,
00:52:57.140likely knowing that that's a lost cause.
00:52:58.900If the PPC gets beyond about 5% in Ontario, you may very well see a vote split there
00:54:03.040And the fact that you saw both Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau invoke the pandemic response in Alberta as a negative does tell you that both the Conservative campaign and the Liberal and NDP campaigns felt that the record in this province was a liability.
00:54:23.560And again, some people want fewer restrictions, some people want more restrictions, but it seems to me that he was kind of behind a rock and a hard place.
00:54:33.300What's coming out now just doesn't really endear a lot of confidence in anybody.
00:54:39.340Let's talk about Calgary and Edmonton, Alberta's two big cities.
00:54:44.640Do you see the Conservatives losing their iron grip in Calgary and seeing more Liberal seats?
00:54:51.960So my prediction in Alberta is that you will see a complete sweep of the Conservatives with one exception, and that is an Edmonton-Straff corner where NDP MP Heather McPherson, I think, will win with quite significant spread.
00:55:08.500The NDP really has put a lot of their efforts into Edmonton-Straff corner.
00:55:12.540An NDP source of mine has told me that they were looking at Edmonton-Griesbach as well.
00:55:16.800I know that popular city councillor George Chahal is running for the Trudeau Liberals in Calgary's northeast, in Calgary Skyview.
00:55:26.580My calculus on this is that the local candidate really matters very little in the grand scheme of things.
00:55:32.460It looks at the demograph of the riding, the leader and the party.
00:55:36.340And I just think that being a Trudeau liberal in Calgary has such a negative, present and historical connotation that Jag Sohota will win in Calgary Skyview again.
00:58:44.380I mean, the Atlantic has traditionally been, you know, a typical red Tory area.
00:58:53.320Is this a sign, do you think, that O'Toole's pivot to the left, pivot to the center, if you will, is succeeding and that we might see replicated across the GTA?
00:59:03.960Yeah, that's a definite potential opportunity.
00:59:06.280It worked for the provincial, I think it was the provincial Tories in Nova Scotia with their health care platform at the very beginning of the federal election campaign.
00:59:18.500That being said, yeah, if it does pull in at the 905, we could be looking at a conservative minority, but we're still early in the process.
01:03:53.920Mail-in ballots are not a huge, huge thing in Atlantic Canada, and there's no reason to believe that there was going to be a big difference.
01:04:02.640But they're going to be a huge, huge issue when we get to the end of the evening in British Columbia.
01:04:07.700There are ridings in British Columbia that have over 8,000 potential mail-in ballots.
01:04:12.340So that means in a lot of the places in British Columbia where you're going to see three-way races or a variety of different two-way races, somebody could have a 2,000, 2,500 vote lead tonight and get a call late tomorrow from Ottawa saying you lost because there's that many ballots to be counted in British Columbia.
01:04:33.700And you said, you know, we weren't going to have a sort of a Trump style problem.
01:04:37.780We kind of run that risk of having a Trump style problem because I expect this election is going to be decided by 40 or 50 close ridings.
01:04:46.420And in those 40 or 50 close ridings tonight, our margin is not going to be anywhere near the number of ballots that are sitting in Ottawa waiting to be counted.
01:04:55.560And those are going to arrive middle to late tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow evening.
01:05:00.760and there's just this sense of it's going to break that usual sense of trust and certainty
01:05:06.360that canadians have about their elections you know we do so many things better than the americans
01:05:10.700we've got our you know we we count paper and there's my pile is bigger than your pile i won
01:05:15.860it's not going to go that way tonight and it's going to be really interesting to see what comes
01:05:21.100that. I'll ask the question about Jason Kenney's effect on the Alberta Tories federally. How do
01:05:34.120you think it played out? I think Jason Kenney's effect plays out in the sense that he gave a
01:05:41.960last-minute surge and push to the People's Party, which won't matter at the end of the week, but
01:05:49.440could matter an awful lot tonight and tomorrow when these votes are being counted. I agree with
01:05:53.880Jonathan Dennis, who was just on your show, that they're not going to win any seats, but they're
01:05:57.800going to be the spoiler in lots and lots of places. And I accept that not all of their votes
01:06:01.980are coming from conservatives, but in a lot of places, enough of their votes are going to come
01:06:09.040from conservatives to make a difference. And there are five, maybe six seats in Alberta,
01:06:15.780maybe two or three in Calgary, three in Edmonton,
01:06:23.100that that could be the difference at the end of the night.
01:06:25.960So I agree with Jonathan that my base prediction is that it will be, you know,
01:06:31.560one orange seat and everything else is blue.
01:06:34.360But if the People's Party have as much of a difference in Edmonton Grease Spa,
01:06:39.200Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Millwoods, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Centre,
01:06:42.680calgary skyview we could be seeing the liberals pick up as many as four or five seats in alberta
01:06:50.420they could have like one eighth of the seats in alberta even though they're immensely unpopular
01:06:54.660um the ppc is a really weird creature it's a vote for change that runs the risk of actually
01:07:00.200accentuating the status quo well okay so i suppose my question is uh the ppc is it's funny it's it's
01:07:09.880It's not particularly likely to win any seats in the election.
01:07:14.380I think at best, one, the biggest optimist I would say would be two.
01:07:20.600We don't really know where their votes constitute because we just don't have those historical
01:08:02.380Yeah. But the PPC vote, if there's enough PPC vote to hand, you know, enough roddings over to the liberals, if you accept the theory of vote splitting, this is, I suppose, an editorialized question, but I appreciate your editorialized answer. Whose fault is it?
01:08:21.640Oh, it's a combination of faults. And it's the other side to the coin of O'Toole's strategy of moderating the party to chase the 905 is that in the process of moderating the party, he exposes his flank to something and Maxime Bernier took advantage of it.
01:08:38.680But it's also Maxime's fault. I mean, I'm sorry. The Bosa is the only seat that could win. The final weekend, he was in Calgary and in Saskatoon. It left the impression that he was chasing donations. It left the impression that he was settling scores. It didn't make him a serious player vis-a-vis politics.
01:08:57.040And that's really frustrating because I actually think Maxime's got some interesting things to contribute to the overall debate of the country.
01:09:04.900And if he won a seat or two, he'd get to participate in them over the next year and a bit.
01:09:08.840And if he wins no seats, he won't matter again until the next election rolls up.
01:09:13.640And maybe if he's lucky, he'll be polling well enough that he can get into the leadership debates.
01:09:19.640But if he had a seat, he'd be in the next election's leadership debates.
01:09:23.460He chose not to campaign in his home riding.
01:09:25.240He chose not to participate in chasing that seat.
01:09:28.220And, you know, he's going to have to answer for that at some point.
01:09:32.020In fact, we were speaking to him earlier this evening.
01:09:34.380He's in Saskatchewan right now for election night.
01:10:24.060I have to tell you, I mean, you know, I went and read it carefully in terms of energy issues
01:10:28.240and some of the things I care about on climate and the response to the just transition of that.
01:10:33.860And if somehow Aaron O'Toole ends up, you know, calling the shots, he ends up in the PMO after this election,
01:10:40.980and he does one third of the things that are in that energy platform, it will be really good for Alberta.
01:10:47.240There are places where I think he has moved the party to the center and chasing Ontario votes.
01:10:55.720That's just the nature of how this country is built.
01:10:58.100I mean, in all honesty, there are more conservatives across the country than ever vote conservative because there's a variety of flavors and styles of conservative.
01:11:08.260And you can never get a leader that can get all of the flavors and style of conservatives into one tent.
01:11:16.680I think it's going to be that way. Even when you have a leader as disliked as
01:11:24.960Justin Trudeau, you can't get all of the conservatives into one tent. So it's going
01:11:30.240to be complicated. I'm going to poke at the energy platform a bit.
01:11:38.420the carbon tax. You know I had to go there. And I do not mean to paint you as the O'Toole guy.
01:11:48.180Your job is not to defend him here. Don't worry. I'm not trying to use you as my foil
01:11:52.000too much. But how much do you think O'Toole's complete reversal on the carbon tax is going
01:12:02.180to be a factor here in uh it was it was a factor in it it upset us and it upset a lot of people
01:12:08.720but it's also a factor this way timo tool told people that if they did that carbon tax thing
01:12:16.240that climate change would not be a factor in the general election they were in effect
01:12:19.940taking climate change off of the topics that got that dominated the federal election and he ended
01:12:25.660up being right one of the shocking things about this election is that we didn't talk very much
01:12:32.100about climate change. Climate change was not the central focus of the election. If you had asked
01:12:37.780me a month ago, I would have said, yeah, it's going to be all about climate change all of the
01:12:40.540time, and O'Toole's going to get beaten up over his carbon plan. That did not happen. And if his
01:12:47.400policy succeeded in taking climate change off the table, that's pretty successful. It's my least
01:12:54.340favorite part of his energy policy. It's the least favorite part of my view on his overall policy in
01:13:01.760terms of energy and climate you know his odd climate plan I don't even know what to call it
01:13:07.160because frankly I think they screwed up the politics of introducing it but he did make the
01:13:11.640issue go away from him at election time and if the election had been all about climate change
01:13:15.420uh he wouldn't be leading in new seats in uh in the maritimes uh that he's leading in so we'll
01:13:23.100you know Derek when I'm on later on today for various segments we'll have a chance to to measure
01:13:27.360it more as the pieces play out, but it's, you know, it's too early in the evening to tell
01:13:31.920how all of this is playing out. Well, thank you, Vitor. We're going to be coming back to you soon.
01:13:37.980We appreciate your contributions. We'll see you in about an hour from now. Sounds great. Thank you.
01:13:44.420Well, let's go to Dave for an update on where we're at. We've got a few more seats reporting
01:13:50.160right now, Dave. Sure. Speaking of energy issues, Derek, Natural Resources Minister
01:13:58.720Seamus O'Regan has been re-elected in his writing, so that will be of interest to the
01:14:05.840West. And polls have closed in Saskatchewan. I mean, who knew that they were closing this
01:14:11.580early, even before some of the eastern time slots? Don't ask me why, because I don't know.
01:14:20.160In the seat standing at the moment, we have Tories gaining four seats and the Liberals losing three.
01:14:28.980We've got Liberals, this is just the Maritime Provinces, Liberals sitting at 24, leading and elected, Conservatives 8, leading and elected.
01:14:38.920And it looks like we're starting to get some Quebec results in now.
01:14:44.020We've got the Bloc leading and elected in one.
01:14:48.420again apparently a lot of these results just going through them a lot of these results are
01:14:56.800very very close and as Vitor just told us could be tomorrow until we hear whether or not or what
01:15:06.160the final what the final decisions are so I understand that we've got Franco in the waiting
01:25:43.780And we have to understand that when we're talking about the cost of living, we have to talk about how the government drives up that cost of living.
01:25:50.800Right. We already talked about how in 20, even during the pandemic, the average Canadian paid more to taxes than on housing, food and clothing combined.
01:25:59.780But another thing that we have to talk about is the inflation tax.
01:26:02.940And essentially what that means is when the government prints more dollars, it means your
01:26:08.840And the government's printing press has been on overdrive during the pandemic.
01:26:13.820Since February 2020, the Bank of Canada has printed about $370 billion.
01:26:20.320That's a 300% growth in the bank's assets, which is significantly more than what we saw
01:26:26.300in the recession of the 80s and the 90s and in 2008-09.
01:26:30.720To put that into context, the 300% growth is similar as to what we saw in the growth of banks of Canada's assets during the entire six years of World War II.
01:26:43.120So, Dave, with that amount of money printing, it's no surprise to see prices going up.
01:26:50.420You must be tossing and turning at night with all those figures bouncing around in your head.
01:32:35.340because I mean there's some people who are very opposed
01:32:37.680to conventional medicine. They gravitated to the Greens. And the PPC has also engaged a lot of
01:32:44.060people who didn't vote, period, but they got quite stirred up again and got restrictions,
01:32:48.120vaccinations. So I know everybody's going to be chewing into this probably for months to come
01:32:52.320later on, but it'll be kind of impossible to measure just exactly how many were coming out
01:32:58.760of the Conservatives and how many were never the Conservatives' votes to begin with.
01:33:02.280Well, I mean, there's a fair amount of polling data that's occurred in the last 48 hours from
01:33:06.540people like Main Street Research and a few others that have pointed out that somewhere in the
01:33:12.200vicinity of three quarters of the PPC support are disaffected conservatives or people who have
01:33:19.680voted conservative at one time or another. And there is that remaining quarter that obviously
01:33:26.180has picked up support from a collapsed green vote, maybe a disaffected Liberal Party supporter,
01:33:34.160that kind of thing but let's not kid ourselves if they get into that 10 15 20 25 of the vote
01:33:42.320in a bunch of ridings in ontario and western canada a significant portion of that would
01:33:47.360be what we would traditionally classify as conservative party supporters
01:33:51.360and i've had an opportunity tonight to talk to some of the folks uh in party headquarters
01:33:56.720And they've indicated that, you know, when they call voters to get out the vote over the last few days, that a significant number of CPC supporters had indicated to them that they were moving their vote over to the PPC.
01:42:22.200It's essentially become a cult of personality around Justin Trudeau.
01:42:26.340And so he because of that, he might be able to hang on, especially if he can form a coalition with the New Democrats and bring them to the cabinet table.
01:42:35.000That might be enough to satisfy Liberals.
01:42:38.420Oh, and Glassman, I just wanted to hear you.
01:42:39.920This isn't the Trudeau that it was six or eight years ago, too.
01:42:42.580I mean, he's kind of evolving, but is it evolving into something that people can really gather around?
01:42:47.820Do you think, Josh, you know, as a younger person, perhaps?
01:42:52.800I mean, there was obviously a certain degree of celebrity around him six years ago.
01:42:58.540But right now, I think the younger people are starting to look at the cost of living going up
01:43:04.500and looking at six years of a Trudeau government in which taxes have gone up,
01:43:09.400interest rates have stayed low, a housing crisis that's continued to be a major player.
01:43:15.680We've seen Jagmeet Singh and the NDP definitely swing to try and get the younger voters on board.
01:43:22.740They're very robustly active on TikTok and other social media sources like that.
01:43:30.400So I don't necessarily, I think it's wearing off.
01:43:32.980The question is whether or not it's enough to get those young people to go vote for another party,
01:43:40.020whether the Conservatives have put anything on the table that might make them a viable option.
01:43:43.380The Greens appear to be imploding and have been for a while.
01:43:46.720So it'll be very interesting to see what the demographic breakdown is at the end of the day.
01:43:52.740I did have a question for you, Clinton, about the Bloc and what your thoughts were on FranƧois Blanchet's performance over the last 36 days or so.
01:46:19.680Absolutely ridiculous where you took the top three.
01:46:24.420I mean, it's not, I don't like the precedent being set to have participants in a debate
01:46:29.320telling the moderators what issues they're allowed to dip into and what they're not.
01:46:33.720Bill 21 in Quebec, for those not familiar with it, yeah, it's the one that will block
01:46:37.960people, religious minorities from showing any displays in the civil service, you know,
01:46:42.740judges, police officers. You can't wear a turban or a crucifix or a kippah. I mean, it's the
01:46:50.240hypocrisy when we had all of these leaders declaring Canada as being systemically racist.
01:46:55.140I mean, we saw Stockwell Day cancelled for life for just daring to say that we weren't.
01:46:59.300And then when we have a bill that really actually personifies systemic discrimination,
01:47:04.900they aren't even allowed to talk about it. Well, what's even more troubling, and by the way,
01:47:09.280I'm not a supporter of Bill 21 and some of that legislation that goes on in Quebec.
01:47:15.300But if any other province in Canada were to pass similar legislation to that,
01:47:19.820you can be certain that the entire parliamentary press gallery would rightfully so point out how terrible that is.
01:47:28.820But for whatever reason, most of the media in Canada,
01:47:34.280Most of our political leaders are prepared to look the other way because they want those 78 seats, because those 78 seats can help you form a majority government.
01:47:47.060And just to circle this back to what I was saying earlier about leaders that could potentially be replaced tonight.
01:47:54.160Look, I realize a lot of the Western Standard audience is not necessarily a big fan of the Green Party.
01:47:59.720But I do think that's an important thing to remember as well,
01:48:02.660that Anna Mae Paul, I believe her political career is coming to an end tonight.0.98
01:48:06.480I mean, this was a party who you mentioned Stockwell Day.
01:48:10.040The closest treatment I can think of of another politician in Canada
01:48:16.760who experienced what Anna Mae Paul experienced was probably Stockwell Day.
01:48:22.420So, you know, you had a party that threatened to suspend her membership,
01:48:25.940that threatened to remove her as leader of the party.0.63
01:48:28.880And essentially, the Green Party went from being a national party to essentially running a series of disjointed, independent candidates across the country with no real sort of oversight from a national campaign.
01:48:43.040So the Green Party's collapsed completely.
01:48:45.460And I also think that could benefit the Liberals tremendously as this night drags on.
01:58:03.620You know, just talking to people, like he was the coach on the soccer team, he was there through the hailstorms that happened, he was accessible, a personable type of person.
01:58:15.800So on an individual basis, people give that a lot of credence.
01:58:19.040And my read, understanding is he's been far more active and connected to the community than the Federal Conservative MP.
01:58:29.180That's just feedback I'm hearing on the ground.
01:58:31.900I mean, of course, in Edmonton, you'll probably have an NDP hold there.
01:58:37.640You know, a bit of insight I've had into the Calgary Centre campaign with Greg McLean and that.
02:26:48.000And I remember hearing one of the things that a lot of people have been talking to me, at least, about is that this is a very expensive election election, maybe the most expensive in Canadian history, six hundred and ten million dollars.
02:26:59.980But, Derek, the way things are shaping out, the real cost to taxpayers tonight is going to come from these massive spending announcements that we've that we've heard from these leading parties.
02:27:12.340Well, Franco, I've been in your position before.
02:27:16.240I know you're supposed to talk about taxpayer stuff.
02:27:18.300You're not the politician, but sometimes you can play a little bit of both.
02:27:24.140How much of a part of Canadian elections is vote buying, though?
02:27:31.580You and I are probably not the typical voters.
02:27:34.960We probably generally don't appreciate it when people try to bribe us with their own money.
02:27:39.360But how successful do you think parties have been at vote buying, using taxpayers' money to move the needle electorally in this election?
02:27:50.280And do you think any party has stood out both as the most egregious example and perhaps as the best example of not doing so?
02:30:36.120Franco, as we were listening to the debates, we're seeing promises, more spending across the board on a variety of things.
02:30:46.140We see a lot of programs, costs, expenses, be it there's explicit spending promises,
02:30:53.040but then there's also downloading onto consumers and voters through higher taxes and levies and policies
02:30:59.860that result in those cost of living increases that all Canadians are struggling with,
02:31:06.260are going to struggle with increasingly so.
02:31:09.220One of the questions in the debates that I was pulling the last half of my hair out on
02:31:15.780was, you know, how are you going to respond to cost of living increases?
02:31:19.980And the general response by all the party leaders was, spend more money, send more checks.
02:31:26.360So, you know, from your perspective, you know, what are some of the things that we should be demanding of our elected officials to get those cost of living increases down?
02:31:41.660And that's, hey, take a look in the mirror and take a good long look in the mirror because you can't talk about the cost of living without mentioning how the government is significantly increasing that cost of living.
02:31:51.600You know, we touched on it in the last segment, but even during the pandemic, the average Canadian family spent about 36% of its budget just to taxes, which is more than what the average Canadian family was paying for housing, clothing and food combined.
02:32:05.680So imagine if we actually had politicians that let families keep more money in their own pockets.0.92
02:32:10.400I mean, that would improve affordability for all aspects of life. And there's one thing that I have
02:32:14.880to point out because we talked about this, but we also heard recently a 4% year over year increase
02:32:21.120in consumer prices. Well, hey, look at any one time, there is a myriad of factors that
02:32:26.320can influence prices, but we got to talk about the elephant in the room and that's the government's
02:32:31.200printing press the central bank the bank of canada uh during the pandemic it um it printed 370
02:32:37.760billion dollars uh worth of new dollars right so it's no surprise that as the as the printing
02:32:43.280press has been on overdrive for the last 18 months that we're seeing higher consumer prices
02:32:50.400well i think uh we'd petition that in the next election the bank of canada should be on the
02:32:54.240ballot and let uh let voters decide if they should be spending this much money uh franco thank you
02:32:59.280very much for your time. We're going to come back to you in a bit. We're going to move now to Aaron
02:33:04.000Gunn. Aaron Gunn is a conservative activist from British Columbia, also a Canadian Taxpayers
02:33:11.120Federation alumni. I swear to God, this is not the CTF reunion club here, but we do manage to
02:33:18.080get around when we're done our tour of duty there. Good evening, Aaron. Oh, Aaron is still muted right
02:33:26.640now no aaron is uh still here right now we're gonna have to get oh there i think there is
02:33:34.720good evening aaron can you hear me now derek good evening how's it going excellent where
02:33:40.560are you coming to us from we're in a little uh watch party here in uh kitsilano and that's kind
02:33:47.040of a suburb of vancouver and a bunch of mainly conservatives i'd say have gathered to watch the
02:33:52.960the results come in. You're a pretty keen observer and sometimes participant in British Columbia
02:34:01.820politics. Obviously, B.C.'s polls, we're sick and tired enough here in Alberta of learning our
02:34:09.340results long after the country has generally voted and decided things. But I suppose we've got
02:34:14.440nothing on British Columbia. You're a bit further on. Why don't you give us your prediction of what
02:34:19.340you expect at least in british columbia uh when we what can we expect to see in the results when
02:34:24.680the polls uh start reporting there well if it's a close election it definitely will come down to
02:34:32.540british columbia a bunch of the closest ridings in the entire country are in bc so people will
02:34:38.160be watching very closely and unlike most places uh it's three-way races and a lot of times it's
02:34:44.100it's conservatives fighting ndp it's ndp fighting liberals and uh and conservatives fighting the ndp
02:34:50.260mixed in with obviously the green uh strongholds that they're going to be trying to keep on
02:34:54.580keep a hold of on vancouver island so if it comes down to the wire it will come down definitely to
02:34:59.780british columbia the the ndp are really the ones to watch they're pulling about five points uh
02:35:06.580better than they performed last time and of course we'll keep an eye on the ppc spoiler effect as well
02:35:12.020well since you went there let's let's talk about that uh the people's party you said it's a spoiler
02:35:19.440effect um in your estimation is the ppc vote coming um mostly just from the conservatives
02:35:26.120uh or i mean there's a bit of analysis of trying to build the profile the voter profile of a ppc
02:35:32.380voter who are they um really where do you think the vote is coming from for the ppc in british
02:35:40.000Columbia? And what kind of effect do you think it's going to have on the outcome?
02:35:47.260Well, I think as you pointed out, it's coming from multiple places. The Greens obviously have
02:35:53.400their stronghold in British Columbia. So with the collapse of the Green Party, I think just a good
02:35:59.120chunk of those votes went to the PPC. And I would say that was up until a point until about two
02:36:04.320weeks ago when O'Toole started flip-flopping on guns and other issues. And then I think you see
02:36:09.160ppc gain another couple percent uh directly at the expense of the conservatives so we'll see if that
02:36:14.600costs them ridings uh particularly well i think where they're trying where they're trying to hold
02:36:23.160on and uh or where they're trying to pick up south okanagan and west kootenay it's you know it's
02:36:31.720before uh some of the pollsters got into it uh cory morgan who's going to be rejoining us here
02:36:36.360in a minute uh cory morgan predicted in a column that the ppc would actually pick up quite a bit
02:36:42.360from the greens uh kind of the hippy dippy type you know people who believe in naturopathic medicine
02:36:47.560and you know strong connection to nature uh people who are certainly not conservative uh green
02:36:53.880switchers um but you know as you get into you know forced uh vaccine passports and issues like that
02:37:01.400he predicted that these people would come over i thought he was a bit nuts but i mean cory has
02:37:06.280been right where i've been wrong well i guess that once and uh is that much of a factor there
02:37:13.160i know you originally hail uh at least in my experience when i first met you from vancouver
02:37:17.240island and that is sort of the epicenter of uh of the green party in canada is is that your
02:37:22.600experience uh about where these kinds of people hello yeah it's a mix look i think that the ppc
02:37:32.840obviously the rent can hear me yeah we can hear you go ahead
02:37:42.200i think aaron's having some trouble hearing us aaron okay well i was gonna
02:42:26.860What I find really interesting for the New Democrats is that specifically in the greater Halifax area, if we look at the provincial, the most recent provincial election, there was a number of NDP MLAs elected in the greater Halifax area.
02:42:42.520And historically, the New Democrats have done well in the city of Halifax in recent elections over the last 20, 25 years.
02:42:52.880What we're seeing now, however, is that, you know, the NDP vote essentially collapsed here in Metro Halifax and the Liberals were able to hold on.
02:43:03.000And I'm also a little bit concerned with the national numbers.
02:43:06.220Now, obviously, a lot of this is going to is going to shift as the prairie vote starts to roll in.
02:43:12.400But if we look at like Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are at 42 percent right now and the Conservatives are at 32.
02:43:21.880When we look at Ontario East and look, I think that's a potential problem because we're still early in the counts.
02:43:33.000And we're, you know, there's only so many polls are reporting it in each riding.
02:43:39.860But, you know, we really need the Conservatives to to perform really well in the prairies to tighten up those national numbers.
02:43:50.460And it may, in fact, come down to British Columbia tonight.
02:43:54.000That may be the deciding factor of who's going to form a government.
02:44:01.640And British Columbia, unlike any other province in Canada, is one that you have four political parties competing for seats, depending on what geographical region of the province that they're in.
02:44:14.660So it's been a good night for conservatives.
02:44:57.380And I think that's going to be a problem specifically, you know, in Nova Scotia.
02:45:03.240So one of the ridings that the Conservatives are performing well in right now is the riding of South Door.
02:45:10.440and uh and that's a riding which is uh it makes up part of the greater halifax area
02:45:17.400and uh look a lot of people in halifax travel overseas for work uh they have multiple homes
02:45:25.280in different countries that sort of thing you know halifax is like any other major urban
02:45:29.620center across the country and so those mail-in ballots could actually create problems in uh
02:45:38.220You know, ridings like South Shore or perhaps, you know, even ridings like Fregerton in New Brunswick and that kind of thing.
02:45:49.220So I think it may be not just a long night, but it could be a long couple of days as they count in those mail-in ballots, depending on just how many there are.
02:46:00.700So, Josh, you've been watching the numbers coming in.
02:46:03.680Are you seeing patterns, anything you feel you can read into this so far?
02:46:08.220Well, for starters, in Newfoundland, the NDP's support has utterly collapsed.
02:46:16.680I haven't been super impressed with the block.
02:46:19.960Quebec was early return, but that being said, it is very early in the process.
02:46:24.460There's a pretty solid state of blue in southern Ontario.
02:46:28.300I haven't had a chance to take a look at the 905 yet.
02:46:32.180But it's still really early regarding the Ontario and Quebec results.
02:46:38.420So it'll be interesting to see what happens moving forward.
02:46:43.660Yeah, I'm really looking forward to see the prairies come in.
02:46:48.780It should still solidly be blue, but I'll be watching the PPC to see if they can hit 10 to 15% in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
02:46:59.540But yeah, that's what I'm looking at right now.
02:47:01.080Corey, interesting stats in Ontario. Liberals are ahead in 70 ridings. Conservatives only 26. But when you look at total vote, the Liberals are only ahead by 5000 votes in all of those. So there's sure to be 5000 votes over 96 ridings.
02:47:26.880As Josh said, less than 3% of polls counted.
02:47:32.860We'll keep an eye on them for the rest of the night, obviously.
02:47:36.240And look, I just want to throw something in there to your point.
02:47:40.280Look, Ontario is not just the big prize when it comes to the sheer number of seats,
02:47:45.320But we have seen over multiple elections over the last 25 years that, you know, Ontario really is like Ontario and British Columbia are the two most competitive provinces in the country.
02:47:59.580And if you can mobilize your get out the vote as, you know, your go TVs, it's often referred to.
02:48:09.000That can be the difference between forming a government and sitting in opposition.
02:48:14.500And what's interesting about Ontario and British Columbia is unlike Atlantic Canada and the Prairies that sort of have kind of one party that they tend to support over another, you know, Ontario is a province which is happy to switch back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives.
02:48:34.500Conservatives. And so that makes those tight races that you're referring to that much more
02:48:40.740important. Because if you have a spread of 5,000 votes over the course of 70 or 80 ridings,
02:48:47.720that really comes down to who's going to get out their vote and who's going to mobilize their vote.
02:48:53.420Yeah, well, and with the numbers we've got coming in, and we're seeing kind of
02:48:57.380128 for the Liberals, 61 to 78 with the Conservatives somewhere.
02:49:48.080You know, these PPC numbers in Ontario as this night drags on
02:49:51.960really could become the problem that we touched on in the beginning of the night.
02:49:56.220And that's because if you have Liberals and Conservatives with a 5,000 vote spread
02:50:03.220over the course of Ontario in the early vote counts,
02:50:06.500the last thing you want is for a large critical mass of Conservative Party voters
02:50:11.580to abandon the Conservatives and go to the PPC,
02:50:16.820and then you end up electing a whole bunch of Liberals all over Ontario.
02:50:20.580Now, as a Liberal, obviously they would love that because that makes their job winning that much easier and it could potentially pave a roadmap for a Liberal majority government.
02:50:35.540Just an early look at Calgary Centre, one poll in incumbent Greg McLean leading with 50% of the vote ahead of the Liberal, Sabrina Grover, who you remember had two campaign workers attacked in Calgary and spit upon and took some abuse.
02:50:58.580So that's only one poll reporting though.
02:51:00.820So, yeah, this has been just such a polarizing, heated campaign.
02:51:06.920I mean, we've really seen some upset people.
02:51:11.020You know, that's something we haven't really talked about tonight.
02:51:13.760The vitriol, the stuff going on, the protests dogging Trudeau.
02:51:20.480If anything, I believe it gave even a little bit of sympathy to them, to the liberals, because these weren't, I mean, you got the right to protest.
02:51:29.440But the screaming, the giving the finger, the swearing, the throwing rocks, I mean, it makes the opposition to Trudeau look insane.
02:51:35.300And this does not help, you know, build a rational case to not vote liberal.
02:51:41.780I think some of that vitriolic response backfired for those who really want liberals gone.
02:51:48.500And, you know, one of the other things we saw occur in this campaign is not just the heightened sense of the rhetoric,
02:51:56.220But in some cases, you know, all like not quite, but almost calls for violence in the sense that, you know, you had candidates for this particular political party that were hinting at public hangings of our political leaders.
02:52:16.060I mean, just completely unacceptable behavior and unacceptable language.
02:52:21.920And so, you know, it has revealed sort of an ugly, seedy side of a small percentage of Canadians.
02:52:32.920And I do think that that kind of thing has helped generate a sympathy vote for the current prime minister.
02:52:41.780Because, look, if it was a conservative prime minister, I think it would have the same effect as well.
02:52:46.760I don't think Canadians want to see our elected leaders being pelted out with gravel or rocks or, you know, having their vehicles surrounded and rocked and this kind of thing.
02:52:59.600No, it's intolerable all over the place.
02:53:01.740Plus, I mean, Maxime Bernier got hit by an egg as well by some idiot.
02:53:06.100That just didn't get as much coverage because it was a further out party.
02:54:06.800People are definitely reacting emotionally given the polarization that COVID has brought
02:54:16.400and how essentially all four of the major parties that are in contention
02:54:22.540to really hold the balance of power in Parliament have the same policies regarding COVID.
02:54:29.980So, but I don't know if it's going to translate to too many sympathy votes for Trudeau.
02:54:37.700The difference between 1969 and today, of course, is that Pierre Trudeau was new to the leadership of the Liberal Party and Justin has been around for seven years.
02:54:51.880So I don't know how much sympathy he's going to get from the general electorate on that.
02:54:56.180And, you know, but to me, just one of the real worrisome issues in this case is so if we just we if we draw the comparison and for the record, it's unacceptable that someone hit Mr.
02:55:10.360Bernier with an egg. And it is unacceptable.
02:55:14.420The difference in this case between these two sets of events that we're describing, as far as we know at the present time, the individual who acted inappropriately and in an absolutely wrongheaded way by pelting him with an egg, as far as we know, that individual wasn't an active member of a party.
02:55:35.460know if if he was um i'm happy to be corrected on that the difference in this case is that we
02:55:41.220actually have ppc candidates uh calling for public hangings we have another ppc candidate
02:55:48.260referencing the nuremberg trials um we had a former ppc riding executive
02:55:59.140um who's recently been removed from the party you know throwing rocks and gravel
02:56:05.380um we have the leader of that party himself um you know actually referencing the words weapons
02:56:14.500uh in some of his speeches and open calls for revolution and so uh there is kind of a a
02:56:23.940heightened sense of rhetoric uh amongst that uh you know this political group and uh look i i think
02:56:33.620the ppc is a is in some ways it's a cult of personality because it's a party that doesn't
02:56:39.780have a national council governing it it doesn't have an official money fund on managing its
02:56:46.020donations it doesn't have a leadership review process and it doesn't have a voter member and
02:56:53.060and created a voted member constitution and then when we look at the leader of this party
02:57:01.140they lost in the 2019 federal election and uh you know the same person ran in a by-election
02:57:08.260in ontario last year he got maybe two three hundred votes and uh he's most likely going
02:57:14.980to go down to defeat again tonight so perhaps uh you know this might be the beginning of the end of
02:57:21.060of the PPC, assuming that Mr. Bernier goes down to defeat.
02:57:24.860Because I believe over time, as the vaccination rates start to rise,
02:57:30.920hopefully if we can put COVID behind us, then the issue that's giving
02:57:36.420that party oxygen is going to disappear.
02:57:39.760Yeah, well, and I don't think we can dismiss, though, the anger and the feeling
02:57:44.680on the part of the people that have been taking part in those protests,
02:57:47.840The people who feel cornered, they feel they have no other outlet.
02:59:06.240we all know that there's a representative from each political party there they call them a
02:59:12.180a scrutineer and then there is a returning officer from Elections Canada and each representative of
02:59:20.680a party in a particular riding signs off on this is how many ballots were counted and who received
02:59:26.760what votes and so I do think that there's a responsibility on all of our parts on all of us
02:59:33.660to explain to those that are you know prepared to do potentially dangerous things because they
02:59:43.820don't understand how ballots are counted all right well let's go back to the map and Clinton
02:59:50.380we'll come back to you in a little while thanks again for the input and update we'll see where
02:59:55.100our numbers at now they're all starting to come in and we're going to come back with Vitor Marciano
02:59:59.340shortly here as well so uh if we could pull up the map and uh we'll start we'll start in quebec
03:00:07.100again uh remember we've got uh 30 sorry 78 seats up for grabs in quebec uh right now the bloc
03:00:16.460quebecois leading or elected in 28 conservatives nine the liberals 34 and the new democrats
03:00:25.500in three it's only about seven and a half percent of the ballots counted at
03:00:33.060the moment and for those interested in the PPC they're bringing in about two
03:00:39.480point seven percent of the votes so not what they would have hoped for moving to
03:00:45.060Ontario where you've got a hundred and twenty-one seats up for grabs the
03:00:49.920Liberals 75 leading or elected, the Conservatives 33, New Democratic Party 10.
03:01:00.140Just so you know, a disillusion, the Liberals had 79 seats there,
03:01:05.940so they're down a handful now, but only 6% of polls reporting.
03:01:11.860Moving to Alberta, the Conservatives leading and elected in 29 seats,
03:01:17.960the Liberals 2 and the New Democrats 2. Early days in Alberta, 3.5% of the polls reporting.
03:01:27.300In British Columbia, only 1.6% of the polls in, and it's got the Liberals with six seats
03:01:36.960and the Conservatives with three, the NDP party with four. What that means nationally is you're
03:01:45.040looking at 147 Liberals elected and leading, 103 for the Conservatives, 27 for the BQ,
03:01:55.360the NDP is leading in 23, or other is one. Maybe the PPC is leading somewhere, or the Greens.
03:02:06.700Yeah, the Greens, I believe, are leading in Kitchener, actually. That's an interesting
03:02:12.580interesting one right there. I believe that, unless I'm mistaken, that is a constituency where
03:02:18.500the Liberal candidate was forced to step down, but was already locked onto the ballot. It could
03:02:26.640be changed in time with Elections Canada. So the Liberal is on the ballot, but says he's not
03:02:31.460running anymore. And so as a result, the Green candidate is leading there with about 36% of the
03:02:38.360vote when I checked. Let's quickly check in. Do you know if it's Kitchener Centre or Kitchener South?
03:02:43.160Try Kitchener Centre. Let's look at Kitchener Centre. Kitchener Centre in fact has the Green
03:02:49.840Party ahead. Yeah, Mike Maurice, the candidate there. Only two polls reporting, so I'm not sure
03:02:57.000how much we can read into that. Calgary Skyview, the Conservative Jag Sohota is leading former
03:03:04.840City Councillor George Sahal after two polls with 40% of the vote and Calgary
03:03:11.660Centre Greg McLean comfortably ahead. So we're gonna go to Vitor Marciano
03:03:17.020right now but while we do that if production wants to try to rig up so
03:03:23.600that Dave can have the map up on his screen so we can we can share his
03:03:30.500screen up when he's going through the results. Vitor, right now we're seeing, I mean, if these
03:03:38.360numbers hold, the Liberals are not far from a majority. Is it 155 for a majority or what is it
03:03:46.840for majority? 170. It's 170 and they're not going to get there. Okay. Either way, they're in strong
03:03:53.060minority government territory already. Yes, but it's ridiculously early and you're falling into
03:03:59.440the trap that the cbc is doing and frankly i don't want you to do that uh granted there aren't that
03:04:04.960many people watching in ontario the reason rosie barton's doing it on the cbc is because there are0.59
03:04:09.200people still in line waiting to vote in places like kingston and york and places like that and
03:04:15.760you know the cbc is projecting a liberal government it's still too early uh half of the global news
03:04:20.880also just uh called a liberal government uh yeah they haven't said it's a majority or not
03:04:27.600uh you are quite correct to point out there is a lot still coming these are some of these are
03:04:33.120one pole two poles out you can't read a lot into it that is unless it's uh like you know if when
03:04:39.440a single pole opens up in crowfoot uh uh battle river crowfoot or something we can call that for
03:04:45.440the conservatives because we just know what it is you don't even have to open a pole so you know
03:04:49.360some of these writings you can uh but it it's a bit stuff actually let's bring that's one down
03:04:54.160for now we don't have a proper map uh but where do you think this is going vitor well listen
03:04:59.68010 15 minutes ago it was 130 to 60 now it's 146 to 105 or thereabouts uh 145 to 99 uh cbc's now
03:05:08.400got conservatives at 105. um these are all the very very early results they really don't mean
03:05:15.280anything unless you know where they're coming in from uh in atlantic canada the liberals didn't
03:05:19.680have a great day it's too early to tell how they're doing in quebec or how they're doing in ontario
03:05:27.440um you know i don't you know i don't believe that there's enough results yet in to tell how it'll
03:05:33.920happen now are the liberals probably going to get the most seats yeah i think everybody uh knew that
03:05:41.040if the liberals weren't going to get the most seats it was because they're going to be 30 or
03:05:44.64040 extremely close ridings and frankly we wouldn't know until tomorrow um but the most seats are
03:05:51.040probably going to be somewhere south of 145. um you know there's there's a lot of seats that
03:05:57.040they're leading in that they're not going to win uh there's a lot of seats that the conservatives
03:06:01.200aren't leading in yet that they have a good shot at winning i mean the alternative if you're if
03:06:05.840you're thinking that way it's you know you're you're missing it there's still a lot of seats
03:06:10.480that aren't reporting at all um you know the new democrats only have one person declared elected so
03:06:16.560far so we take out the leadings when you take out the leadings and you go to elected on the seats
03:06:22.240that we know it's roughly 27 for the liberals 24 for the conservatives seven for the bloc one for
03:06:27.600the new democrats thereabouts it's going to go up and down by one or two over the next little bit
03:06:31.920uh this is a close election i mean it's we knew it was going to be a close election um
03:06:38.160Um, it's still very much up in the air. I think you can project that the liberals are going to
03:06:45.680have the most seats, maybe still even a little too early to do that. I'd want to see another
03:06:51.280half hour's worth of results come in. I mean, you know, basically the projection is coming in on
03:06:56.380about 1.5 million seats. I mean, there's 1.1 million, 1.5 million votes. There's 1.1 million
03:07:03.780votes to be counted in ottawa tomorrow so there's still so much counting to do that you can't make
03:07:09.860these projections so many of these seats not how to had enough polls that you could extrapolate
03:07:14.900that i mean once you get to 10 of a writing voting and somebody's got a clear lead yeah
03:07:19.460you can project that nothing strange should happen with the rest of the writing but it's it's it's
03:07:25.220too early uh i think there's every reason to believe that the liberals are probably going
03:07:30.740going to end up in the 137 138 range and the conservatives are going to be in the mid 120s
03:07:37.940that's a reasonable projection with what we see right now um this is going to be an election
03:07:46.380that was largely for naught uh even as we sit right now uh justin trudeau's 11 seats back
03:07:53.500from 12 seats back from where he was after the last election.
03:07:59.720And it's, you know, the places that are left to report
03:08:04.340are unlikely to deliver him even those 12 seats.
03:08:09.980Yeah, I'm inclined to agree that the liberals are probably headed for another minority.
03:08:15.320On this track, I think they're actually headed to pick up some seats.
03:08:18.860I predicted they would probably shed a few seats, probably mostly at the expense of the Block and NDP would pick up a couple of Liberal seats.
03:08:33.880But I thought the Liberals would still squeak through.
03:08:36.960But it looks so far, again, your Vitor asteris is accepted.
03:08:44.900The Liberals look set to pick up some seats.
03:08:46.560Let's bring it home to Alberta, though, here.
03:08:48.860Let's get Dave's map up on the screen.
03:12:58.720So that's 319 writings reporting out of 338.
03:13:03.820So we've got about 20 more ridings to go.
03:13:06.760The Liberals, some of the ones that they're in the lead on, they won't be in the lead on.
03:13:10.640If they swept the 20 ridings to go, they'd still be short of a majority.
03:13:14.600They're going to actually lose some of the seats that they're ahead on right now.
03:13:20.560You know, Derek, I still hold that the Liberals are headed, you know, I guess, depending on what happens tomorrow in the votes that get counted in Ottawa.
03:13:29.100but if i had to predict right now the liberals are in the 136 to 142 range probably you know i i call
03:13:36.860it at 138 and the conservatives therefore are uh about 126 127. um the part that's surprising to
03:13:46.780me right now is you know what happens with the missing seats so far you know that so far the
03:13:51.180new democrats are underperforming um and the bloc quebecois is underperforming so but it's still
03:13:58.540ridiculously early i mean we're still at the you know we haven't counted 3 million ballots yet
03:14:04.7805 million canadians 5.5 million canadians voted in the advanced polls we haven't counted 3 million
03:14:10.940ballots yet and you know that's why i think you know cbc and global projecting a liberal government
03:14:18.380they're they're kind of jumping the gun here i mean you know uh when we go to a writing like
03:14:23.180edmonton center that i know really well i know a poll by poll straight by street
03:14:28.460it's still too early to say that you know with 10 of the polls in you know uh james cummings is
03:14:35.260doing okay but i wouldn't you know without knowing exactly which polls they are i wouldn't know how
03:14:41.020to interpret that result um it's it's it's still it's still too early to call the liberals will
03:14:49.420probably have the most seats but it isn't a certainty yet that they will the uh the block
03:14:56.380and the ndp are certainly underperforming most polls most polls uh i mean on on a really good
03:15:03.740day today based on the numbers if the splits broke the their way the ndp were looking at
03:15:10.140up to 40 seats which is about as good as they can do uh with the exception of that one big orange1.00
03:15:17.180wave in Jack Leighton's last election.
03:15:21.860The Bloc also certainly underperforming.
03:15:24.900They got all upset when it was mentioned in the English language debate that it's just
03:15:29.520possible Quebec could be as racist as the rest of us.
03:15:33.960That's not kosher stuff and that became a really big part of the debate there.
03:15:39.420Vitor, I suppose you really have to bite them off piece by piece, the Bloc and NDP are such
03:15:44.360different creatures uh but they're both underperforming and it appears to be to the
03:15:50.000benefit of the liberals and and part that's why i say it's still really early because i don't
03:15:57.060believe that the ndp only pulled out 16.3 percent of the popular vote and that's what they're sitting
03:16:02.040at right now i mean 16 is what they got last time every pollster every poll every projection had
03:16:09.060them doing better so i still believe that this is the result of early counts um the block at 6.8
03:16:15.520that's within the range conceivably of where the polls had them the polls had them at 7.6 7.8
03:16:21.640some of them had them over eight which is you know a big number in quebec um right now the liberals
03:16:29.320are winning in the popular vote and i do not believe that that will hold i mean um i think
03:16:37.420that this is a function of the fact that we're still, again, like I said, now we're getting
03:16:42.640closer to 3 million votes counted. Again, 5.5 million Canadians voted in the advance
03:16:47.760poll. So this next half hour will make the difference. I think the Liberals are going
03:16:52.660to get the most seats. But I'm going to point out to you that right now, assuming that they
03:17:00.020don't lose any of what they have and they don't pick anything up, I guess they could
03:17:06.400govern with the NDP, that the liberals and the NDP combined would be 176. So they could actually
03:17:12.360pass legislation with just the NDP. But if they start slipping a little bit, and if those slips
03:17:19.080happen to the conservatives, then this becomes a different game. Now, the other thing to look at is
03:17:26.620actually declared elected. If you go to just declared elected, the conservatives are ahead.
03:17:30.940The conservatives have been declared elected. CBC is declaring 49 conservatives elected to 39 liberals elected.
03:17:39.300So, you know, on the seats, taking away the seats that are still in play, the conservatives are doing OK.
03:17:45.840That's not a surprise. There's lots of places where, you know, like you said, when when Crowfoot starts counting,
03:17:51.100if the first three polls come in and there's no surprises, you know, there's not going to be any surprises in Crowfoot.
03:17:55.260But, you know, I just look now, CBC has just, you know, CBC has now just moved the Conservatives into the 120 range.
03:21:59.300Okay, thank you for the update. We're going to go now to Franco Tarzan with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. Franco, I know policy pays a big role in campaigns, and I know you're a policy guy, you're less of the operational politics in terms of your field, but there's going to be a big impact.
03:22:23.880I don't know. It looks to me, I'm a bit more pessimistic than Vitor Marciano is.
03:22:30.600I think it's in the bag for the littles at this point.
03:22:34.120The conservatives have to, there is no such thing as a conservative minority government unless they have a very decisive plurality of deeds.
03:22:43.400I'd be quite shocked if they catch up.
03:22:46.420Of course, some of these things can flip.
03:22:47.920mail-in ballots though look i mean the conventional wisdom is not always wrong and in this i accept
03:22:54.700the conventional wisdom that convention uh that the mail-in ballots are going to favor new democrats
03:22:58.400and liberals those are going to be voters who are scared stiff of covid and uh can't leave
03:23:03.900obviously not entirely but are predominantly voters who uh feel they can't leave their house
03:23:10.400to vote, at least in many of those cases. What's this looking like for you?
03:23:17.260Well, okay, there's two things that we need to talk about. One is if these results hold,
03:23:23.540what would it look for Canada's finances? So let's start there. I mean, first, this would be
03:23:28.400hugely expensive, right? Let's look at the Trudeau government's track record heading into this
03:23:33.320election. They put out a budget in April, which would nearly double the pre-pandemic debt in six
03:23:40.360years, the Trudeau government put us on a trajectory where we wouldn't see a balanced
03:23:44.240budget until 2070, right? In the meantime, we would rack up close to $4 trillion just in interest
03:23:51.380charges on the debt. That's trillions of dollars over those decades that can't go to healthcare,
03:23:56.080that can't stay in our pockets through lower taxes, because that would be going to the bond0.85
03:24:00.180fund managers on Bay Street. Now we're hearing the Trudeau liberals promising $78 billion in
03:24:07.120additional spending on top of that. So, I mean, hugely expensive to taxpayers. And look, I think
03:24:13.560we also have to bring up an important fact here. If these results hold, if the O'Toole Conservatives
03:24:19.060lose, they will have loss after flip-flopping on key issues for taxpayers. Indeed. Now, Franco,
03:24:30.360I know one of the great traditions of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation is the day after the election,
03:24:35.860I'm sure you and your staff in the office there are busy right now calculating the pension
03:24:42.900eligibility of defeated and retiring members of parliament, if you haven't already done it and
03:24:48.220just put them all in the bag. Can we expect those numbers as per your tradition tomorrow?
03:24:55.840Oh, well, stay tuned for that. We're definitely going to be releasing them relatively soon. I can't
03:25:00.660you the exact date but yep we'll have uh mp pension calculations and severance checks rolling out as
03:25:06.340that is outrageous franco when i was there i had it done that night i'd be on don martin the next
03:25:12.900day with the numbers in my hand you gotta you're running a sloppy operation you're you're a man of
03:25:17.780efficiency my friend that's what i can say there uh so if these numbers hold up uh it looks like
03:25:24.260another probably liberal minority government probably a strengthened liberal minority government
03:25:30.100uh again these numbers could still fluctuate quite a bit but even if they go up or down
03:25:34.420uh that appears to be what we're likely looking at um what what can we expect from the canadian
03:25:41.060taxpayers federation um over probably the next two years of a minority government what would be
03:25:46.980you're going to keep holding them accountable uh for the massive amounts of spending and i think
03:25:51.460really the key issue uh for taxpayers right now is is the government debt right the federal
03:25:55.860government is already more than a trillion dollars in debt which means that each canadian is on the
03:25:59.620the hook for about $30,000 in federal government debt alone. But, you know, I referenced the fact
03:26:05.080that under the Trudeau government current trajectory, but even before this election and
03:26:09.360all the massive spending that we wouldn't see a balanced budget until 2070. Well, if that were to
03:26:14.700happen, then per person federal debt in Canada would balloon to $67,000, which would be just a
03:26:21.460massive bill for Canadians, kids and grandkids to pay back. So I really do think the key issue
03:26:27.120for taxpayers is going to be the government debt is going to be the billions of dollars that we're
03:26:31.760losing every single year to the bond fund managers just in interest charges uh so i think that's
03:26:36.660going to have to be the key issue for canadian taxpayers to really push back on uh so regarding
03:26:42.440spending you keep you mentioned the liberals really expensive platform now it looks like
03:26:48.700they're headed into a minority government potentially propped up by the ndp do you think
03:26:53.460that your estimates or that wouldn't be your parliamentary budget offices estimates are on
03:26:59.000the low end given the fact that the NDP could be holding the balance of power? Well I think that's
03:27:05.780a great point because remember during this election the NDP are saying they would want to spend more
03:27:11.980than 200 billion dollars on top of the last Liberal government's budget which was just massive
03:27:17.040spending and you know what Josh I think you bring up a good point because when you look at that PBO
03:27:21.780data that was forecasting deficits for five decades um that was still assuming steady economic growth
03:27:28.580that was still assuming relatively low interest rates well what if reality isn't that rosy
03:27:33.460what if canada stumbles into another economic downturn what if interest rates spike i think
03:27:38.180that would be a huge a huge huge concern for for our federal government finances which are already
03:27:43.860in shambles okay uh franco thank you very much we're going to come back to you soon very soon
03:27:51.060We're going to have a PPC candidate from Airdrie, Banff, Nadine, Wellwood up.
03:27:56.840But before that, we're going to go to Jonathan Dennis, one of our guests, the former Minister
03:28:05.160of Justice and Solicitor General of Alberta, coming to us from at least one of the Conservative
03:28:10.640campaign headquarters in Calgary here.
03:29:32.560I know the NDP have really focused on that as an offensive operation.
03:29:38.120They've been confident in holding Edmonton-Stratkona, which has really been, I mean, if there is a single left-leaning federal seat in El Paso,
03:29:45.580Alberta. It's been largely Edmonton, Strathcona. But Edmonton, Grisbach, they've really gone
03:29:52.040after that one. Kerry Diot is, I mean, I don't even think the guy's a red Tory. He's actually
03:29:58.300a pretty solid true blue conservative. He's not an Aaron O'Toole true blue. He actually
03:30:04.020does seem to hold to it. So the Edmonton really have made an effort going after him. Jonathan,
03:30:10.040what's your take on how some of these tighter inner city Calgary races are going?
03:30:14.380Okay, so my friend Greg McClain, I was working on his campaign today. He's running away with it. He's a very likable guy. He's a good guy for the ride. He's a little redder than me and probably of you as well. He represents the riding well. He works really hard. Intelligent guy. Calgary Skyview, it looks like Jag Sahota is running away with it as well.
03:30:31.060I long predicted that the moniker of Trudeau Liberal in Calgary was not going to do well for George Chahal.
03:30:37.360He had endorsements from people like Jeff Davison, Drew Farrell, Ward Sutherland.
03:30:41.100That didn't bear fruit for him, trying to unite the left there.
03:30:44.360I don't see him succeeding here as well.
03:30:47.280Edmonton Centre is going to James Cumming, it looks like.
03:30:50.040The only two races really to watch in Alberta are Edmund Strathcona.
03:33:38.440We're going to go to Nadine as soon as we're done hearing from Mr. Bernier.
03:33:48.520We are standing by to hear from Mr. Bernier in just a second.
03:33:55.480Jonathan, how quickly do you think George Sahal declares for his old council seat?
03:34:01.260Well, actually, it's funny you say that, because for him to declare for his council seat, he would have had to file today. There's been no news media to indicate that he did. I would put a spike in his political career at this point.
03:34:18.240I know the Liberals were very much gunning for that seat.
03:41:11.360We've been as high as 10.4 this evening, and hopefully it keeps going up.
03:41:19.460Yeah, well, it's still early in a lot of room for things to change.
03:41:24.220So maybe I'll just get your thoughts on this general election across the board.
03:41:29.160I mean, I still think the PPC was impressive.
03:41:31.140You've really established, made waves, definitely impacted many races and the tone of the election itself.
03:41:38.240How do you feel about the campaign as a whole?
03:41:40.120You know, I think as a whole, we have done an amazing campaign, you know, from 1.6% nationally to seeing numbers like 7, 6% in multiple ridings. And, you know, we now are truly a national party and we're getting the right recognition.
03:41:59.980And Max said it right. He just explained we are really the only opposition left in Canada.
03:42:06.960And it's going to be nice to have some higher numbers, even if it is just a popular vote, because, you know, we have a lot of Canadians right now that are feeling that there's not a party other than the People's Party of Canada that represent them when it comes to their rights, their freedoms, smaller government, less spending on so many different platform issues.
03:42:29.980Nadine, Derek Sloan came in with a bang, a big announcement, basically drawn flies tonight.
03:42:39.740Why was not his campaign received so well? Derek Sloan's from Ontario. Albertans are not going to
03:42:46.220give their support to somebody from Alberta. And I said that, I said that in my announcement when
03:42:52.940I made it very clear to Derek to go home. He was wasting his time here. You know, and nobody here
03:42:59.580in the the west really knows who he is i mean i went door to door just as well as he did
03:43:04.620and uh we didn't bring up his name but nobody asked either and so many of my friends and
03:43:10.300colleagues close by who you know we did kind of test the water to see you know well what do you
03:43:16.380think of derek well who they honestly did not know who he was yeah well in parachuting
03:43:24.140particularly from ontario into the west when we're a country that's got a lot of regional division
03:43:28.140going on. I mean, it was just a very bizarre decision on the part of Mr. Sloan. I remembered
03:43:35.320his kickoff. I mean, he did have some old classic reformers there, Art Hanger and Eric Lowther.
03:43:41.720Rob Anders was there. But really, I mean, this hasn't translated any support on the ground.
03:43:46.220I'd imagine this is probably going to be the end of Derek's career.
03:43:49.540I suspect so. You know, right now he's here right now at 2.5%.
03:43:57.460And, you know, I understood before he came to this riding that he was polling at eight percent in his old riding where his wife is currently running this evening.
03:44:11.140And, you know, I stayed in this riding. This is my home.
03:44:14.620I didn't just pack up and leave, you know, when I got three point four percent in the last election, you know, because this is my home.
03:44:21.620Where do you go if you're not willing to stand and defend your home?
03:44:24.380So I think he hurt himself by packing up and coming to Alberta.
03:44:29.260But, you know, we reap what we sow sometimes, too.
03:44:33.420Yeah, well, so going farther forward now, though, you've built a solid base.
03:44:38.300Definitely a large part of it, though, was cornering the individual freedoms against the restrictions, the vaccinations, the passports, things such as that.
03:44:46.320We talked a bit with Maxime Bernier when he came on earlier on our show tonight.
03:55:56.960And the Bloc kind of underperforming with 29 seats, down by three from the last election.
03:56:03.680So nationally, interestingly, the Conservatives now have more of the popular vote.
03:56:11.140They've got 34% of the popular vote, but that only is translating into 123 seats, while the Liberals have 156 seats with 32.7% of the vote.
03:56:26.280The block, 29 seats, the NDP, 28, and looks like the Green Party with two.
03:56:35.180Well, you know, I was going to say, Dave, I think of it, I think I'm feeling like Bill Murray over here.
04:04:21.580There's every reason to believe that we'll end up back at 120.
04:04:24.280I actually thought they were going to head closer to the 130-some mark.
04:04:30.040It's almost like we're not finding a way to get to that next level of convincing voters.
04:04:37.600And in this election, if, you know, last election, I think it was, you know, 2.6%, 1.6% of the vote, the PPC helped the liberals win five or six seats, depending on how you want to parse the vote.
04:04:52.000I think with 5.2%, when it all gets counted, the PPC is probably going to help the liberals win 10 or 12, maybe even 15 seats.
04:04:59.300But that still wouldn't have been enough.
04:05:01.240I mean, 15 seats would have put O'Toole in the 135 range, so it would have been roughly tied with the liberals.
04:05:07.600um fundamentally uh you know part of this is the fact that the country's stacked against us never
04:05:15.260forget the 2.5 million atlantic canadians elect 32 mps 4.4 million albertans elect 36
04:05:23.980so literally you know we have almost twice the population we get four more seats
04:05:28.580when you when you combine alberta and british columbia we have a million more people which
04:05:34.480should be 10 seats. We have two more seats than Quebec. We have a million more people than Quebec.
04:05:39.240We only get two extra seats, not 10 extra seats. There's an awful lot of built-in imbalances in
04:05:46.240how Canada runs, but that's relatively unchangeable. And in this election, if that NDP vote
04:05:55.940was at 20%, where all the polls had it, or 18 or 19, it would be a little different. But right now
04:06:03.040it's at 16.9 and that's going to elect 156, 157, 155, 158 liberals. And that's where it's going.
04:06:14.980So something I pointed out on the map just before you came in, and it's certainly an issue near and
04:06:19.040dear to my heart. I got a feeling we're going to see quite an uprising of regionalism going on.
04:06:23.980There's that big blue hole in the middle of Canada, that frustration. A lot of people out
04:06:29.060here, Phil, that we did moderate, you know, the CPC backed off. I mean, we can argue about whether
04:06:34.760it's a carbon tax or not a carbon tax. He certainly got in on carbon pricing. You know, he softened
04:06:40.380the stance on the firearms, and it feels like it led to nothing. How is O'Toole going to be able
04:06:47.640to stem that rising ire, I guess you'd say? You know, Jonathan, I don't think he's going to.
04:06:55.600Like, I think O'Toole's in a little bit of trouble because he needed to add to the overall play.
04:07:03.000And if he comes in in the exact same place, I don't know how he holds up.
04:07:48.140And whether it's him or somebody else, the Conservative Party always has to be the party of the average Canadian, fighting for the average Canadian.
04:07:58.180There's way more average Canadians than there are CEOs.
04:08:01.980Maybe we have to do some soul searching here.
04:13:54.040I'm really honoured to have been given another mandate by my constituents,
04:13:58.060and I'm ready to get back to work for them.
04:14:01.380Obviously, it's a bit bittersweet. You've obviously secured re-election in your constituency, but we have, I mean, if someone bumped their head and went into a coma two years ago and woke up today, they'd probably think it was the same day.
04:14:19.460looking at the results of this election, Justin Trudeau headed for his third consecutive government
04:14:25.880or third term, second consecutive minority government. I know you can't be that pleased
04:14:32.580about it, but where do you, I think we probably share some common ideas about what this means,
04:14:39.800but where do you think the conservative campaign went wrong in really trying to convince Canadians
04:14:48.520that it was time not just for change but for a conservative government? Well I think that's the
04:14:55.080wrong question. I've knocked thousands upon thousands of doors over the last six weeks and
04:15:00.440what I've heard from my community is that they want stability and they want a path out of the
04:15:04.440pandemic. There's a lot of fatigue and there's a need for hope. So I think what you're seeing
04:15:12.140tonight you know if you if you think back six weeks ago you had national media strategists
04:15:17.560and pundits saying that this was going to be a cakewalk to a majority government for Justin
04:15:22.060Trudeau. And what you saw, I think tonight is reflected in the fatigue and in the desire of
04:15:27.140the Canadian public to have solutions and leadership when it comes to the crisis that
04:15:31.820our country is in right now. And, you know, that is what I am going to be doing tomorrow morning
04:15:36.920is getting back to work. There are so many things that I wish we could have done as a parliament
04:15:41.780over the last six weeks that we could have turned our attention to, but we had this election. And
04:15:46.440And to your point, you know, the results are very much, I don't think, what Justin Trudeau expected them to be.
04:15:54.800But now we have a duty and an obligation to the Canadian people to put our heads down, get back to work and chart a path out of this.
04:16:04.640I know you've got a lot of media requests.
04:16:07.020We're not going to overstay our welcome with you.
04:16:09.660We're going to let you go in a second.
04:16:17.520Let me try a different question or put it a different way.
04:16:21.520What do you think that the Conservative Party needs to do differently?
04:16:25.340It appears the Conservatives are headed, like last time, for a victory in the popular vote.
04:16:31.020But the popular vote obviously doesn't decide the government or seats necessarily.
04:16:35.860What is it in your mind that could have gone differently?
04:16:41.480let's put it that way, that could have changed the outcome of tonight?
04:16:47.440I mean, I'm just coming off of like, you know, six weeks of hardcore door knocking and I'm trying to get my bearings.
04:16:53.960But based on what I've heard in my community, it's people just want to stability and they want a path forward.
04:17:00.500I think what people don't want right now is a bunch of infighting and political instability.
04:17:06.360Our path forward as a party, but more importantly, as a set of parliamentarians of all political stripe has to be a clear and non-divisive and unifying bringing set of policies to get us through the pandemic.
04:17:23.340I can't stress that enough. I heard it over and over and over and over and over on the doors.
04:17:29.260we need to get through this um so i mean i'm sure there's going to be a lot of questions about how
04:17:35.700that is achieved um and as always you know i i put my community first and i'm proud to speak on
04:17:42.500behalf of alberta i think alberta has a lot of unique challenges coming out of uh the pandemic
04:17:48.580we were already in an economic crisis going into it um so what i'm focused on now is making sure
04:17:53.840that those needs are loudly and strongly voiced at the national table but also that the right
04:18:01.400frustrations that my constituents have expressed over you know the need for stability and unity
04:18:06.320after a completely unnecessary election that's it's get back to work time. Okay just before I
04:18:15.380let you go one last question and I don't mean to put you on the spot but it's a question I think
04:18:21.220a lot of people are getting right now.
04:20:50.940Let us start off in the West, where we all good things are.
04:20:55.600In the West, let's start with British Columbia, 14 to 14 for the Conservatives and the Liberals,
04:21:03.500both tied with that number, the NDP, only one behind at 13 seats.
04:21:09.780Moving eastward in Alberta, the Conservatives performing strongly again with 31 seats, leading or elected, and Liberals leading in one, which would be Calgary Skyview, and the NDP leading in the two Edmonton seats.
04:21:28.920Ontario, not much has changed, you've got the Liberals at 76, the Conservatives at 37,
04:24:01.280In Canada, people have lost so much faith in the big parties that only two-thirds of Canadians have voted for the big so-called center-right and the big so-called center-left party.
04:24:12.180The NDP underperforming the polls pretty considerably tonight with 17.2 block, as you said, 8.2.
04:24:19.340You know, the Bloc actually didn't do that bad in the popular vote.
04:24:22.400I'm surprised they didn't yield more seats out of that.
04:24:26.640We're going to have to dive into those numbers a bit more,
04:24:29.740because that must be a lot of bad splits for the Bloc.
04:24:32.340The Bloc must have had a particularly inefficient vote today, at least by Bloc standards.
04:24:36.360They got pretty much half the votes of the NDP and just as many seats.
04:24:41.300So the Bloc has, yes, a very efficient vote, but by their own traditional standards, it was not a good election.
04:24:47.060The PPC is the least efficient vote in Canada.
04:24:50.820Right now, they've got 5.2% of the popular vote.
04:31:20.540That's, I mean, we'll see, we try to get a better internet connection, so we came out here, but some, I mean, mixed feelings from people.
04:31:28.900I think, to be honest, this is what everyone was expecting.
04:31:32.900This is almost identical to what we got last time, and here we are again.
04:31:37.660So, I don't know, I just got to this new location, so it looks like, what are we at, the Liberals down a couple, Conservatives up a couple, maybe NDP up a couple.
04:31:50.540Okay, well you're obviously not pleased about it. I know you're not a liberal.
04:31:57.540We're going to have another fascinating guest coming to us from the west, but this time to the east of Alberta.
04:32:02.540We're going to have Quick Dick McDick joining us from Saskatchewan.
04:32:07.540I'm trying not to lie. It's just the greatest name ever.
04:32:10.540I think I love him. I think he's great. I'm looking forward to it.
04:32:13.540Aaron, where do you think the Conservatives went wrong here?
04:32:51.520Where do you think the conservative campaign went wrong?
04:32:55.660Well, I think they tried to campaign as liberals and I don't know how much more electoral evidence
04:33:02.660you need to showcase the fact that when conservatives don't present a clear alternative to people,
04:33:09.340they don't campaign on conservative ideas and conservative platforms um they don't win they
04:33:14.520don't go anywhere i think if voters want to vote liberal they know who to vote for and when
04:33:18.940progressives want progressive options they already have three or four options depending on what part
04:33:23.140of the country you're in so um i think they went wrong i think the flip-flop on on uh the trudeau
04:33:29.460gun ban was terrible and hurt them i think um going into the the pre-campaign flip-flop on the
04:33:35.860carbon tax conservatives. And at the end of the day, I just think he didn't, he didn't stand for
04:33:40.700anything. And if you don't stand for anything, how can you ever hope to, to earn new voters?
04:33:48.160Yeah. Well, what do you think happens next? Aaron O'Toole was elected as the true blue
04:33:55.820conservative. He is the heir to Stephen Harper and Preston Manning. You know, he was able to,
04:34:01.760at least on the final ballot, win with significant Western support and dominantly from the right side of the Conservative Party.
04:34:09.420Do you think Aaron O'Toole is long for the political world, or do you think he's going to be able to get another kick at the can?
04:34:16.440I think there's definitely, there's already a movement within the Conservative tent that's pushing for that to happen.
04:34:24.140I'm not in a position to count who's got more power.
04:34:27.460I do think that Aaron O'Toole has a lot of supporters within the Conservative Party establishment in Toronto and Ottawa, which tend to pull a lot of the levers within the party.
04:34:36.300But I think among the grassroots, there's a lot of people that are frustrated.
04:34:40.280But maybe more importantly, Derek, the question becomes, is there someone who's willing to step up to take his place?
04:34:46.800I think that becomes the next big question, and who might that somebody be?
04:34:50.560And that might make the decision a little bit more interesting.
04:34:54.120Well, I'm just going to have to put you on the spot because you just opened yourself up for it.
04:35:00.820Who do you think would be a short list of potential candidates if the leadership of the Federal Conservative Party was to open up?
04:35:08.920Well, look, I think everybody, if Pierre wants it, Pierre Polyev, obviously he's got the biggest following.
04:35:16.340There's still some uncertainty with why he didn't go last time.
04:35:20.240Some people might wonder if Peter McKay will take another kick at the can.
04:35:23.360I mean, one thing I will say about Peter McKay is if you were going to run on a kind of progressive conservative platform anyways, I'm sure he would have been the better choice or the more presentable choice to Canadians.
04:35:37.100And then you've got a bunch of new younger MPs in the West and maybe someone make a name for themselves or we will see.
04:35:45.180But look, I mean, if Pierre Polyev is able to assemble a team, I think it's, I think it's, it would be his to lose.
04:35:53.340I mean, I guess Rona Ambrose's name you could throw out there.
04:35:56.480Some, some conservatives may still fantasize about a return to Stephen Harper, but I think that's, that's the reality on the ground and that's where the energy would be.
04:36:07.340We're going to come back to you in a bit here.
04:36:09.200We're going to want to, next time we see you, we're going to want to chat more specifically about some of the results in British Columbia specifically.
04:36:16.640Before we go to quick Dick McDick out of Saskatchewan, I know Green Leader NMA Paul is speaking right now.
04:36:25.540I don't think we're going to go, we're not going to listen to her speech, but if production wants to pull up on a second screen, pull her up on the side just as she's speaking.
04:36:36.460We'll keep her on muted if that's possible.
04:36:39.200But in the meantime, let's bring Quick Dick McDick into the conversation here.
04:36:46.640Quick Dick is a farmer and I don't know what else to call him, a social media phenomenon,
04:36:54.060or maybe just a phenomenon from Saskatchewan.
04:36:57.780What part of Saskatchewan are you in right now, Quick?
04:47:39.380If you look back when when they did the conservative, the conservative candidate election, we saw predominantly in Saskatchewan was support for Lesley Lewis.
04:47:52.020I can't honestly sit here and say that I think that Lesley Lewis would have run a better campaign than Aaron O'Toole did when O'Toole started flopping on a few of his policies, i.e. gun ban, carbon tax and a few different things.
04:48:04.540I think that was maybe a little bit of a faltering point for him.
04:48:08.320And I'm not sure where Leslie Lewis could have done better than that, to be perfectly honest.
04:48:14.680But I feel like she might have done better in the GTA area where it's so important.
04:48:22.000But I don't think there's any statistics that would either support or deny that claim that I've made.
04:48:28.320And you never really know until you get down to election night.
04:48:30.960And I think there was a lot of people that were looking at coming into this election with a lot stronger conservative support than what we've seen.
04:48:38.940And I think there are going to be a lot of people that are very dumbfounded by the results that we've seen.
04:48:44.360And also, I feel like there's going to be a lot of PBC supporters that are not going to see what has happened here with what they've done with their votes.
04:48:54.440and I think that's going to continue to cause us a little bit of stress in future elections as well
04:48:59.380because I don't feel like we're going to see Maxine Bernier go anywhere.
04:49:05.120I've got some breaking news that may bring a smile to Quick Dick's face.
04:49:11.360Maryam Monsif, the Liberal Women's Minister, has gone down to defeat in the Peterborough writing.
04:49:18.040You remember she was the Cabinet Minister who said the Taliban are our brothers.
04:53:57.560you know, I've been crabby on many election nights,
04:53:59.560So I don't think I've ever felt this dejected on something that didn't change anything.
04:54:03.120Yeah, I think what you say, Corey, is bang on.
04:54:06.220And that's the feeling that I've got from most, you know, I wasn't in touch with a whole lot of people before I actually made it home here tonight.
04:54:12.940But I think the general feel that you get from a lot of people from this election, what we've just gone through, I mean, it was short 36 days leading up to where we're at here right now.
04:54:23.940And what you get from most people in communities that I'm involved with right now is this.
04:54:32.060Well, is that the kind of feeling that you really want resonating throughout your country at a time where we're at right now with, you know, with the divisiveness going on between vaccines and passports and lockdowns and whatnot?
04:54:47.560Not only was this a really terrible vanity project for Justin Trudeau to dump himself into, but to what it's done to make things worse, specifically through Canadians, I think is worse.
04:55:04.140And I hope that that's something that he will have to wear going forward from here.
04:55:08.920But when you look at the results of this election, you question whether anyone will actually wear it that does support the Liberal Party right now.
04:56:07.720production team i think erin o'toole is about to start speaking hello i'm afraid i can't hear you
04:56:16.280but uh uh anyways i'm here with julius hoffman from the pit meadows maple ridge riding for with
04:56:23.560the people's party i believe this riding has actually already been called for mark dalton
04:56:29.800But with Julius Hoppen here, so tell me, a lot of the popular vote of the People's Party actually surprised, I think, a lot of pundits and did get more than anticipated.
04:56:41.680But it doesn't look like it's resonated into any seats.
04:56:44.680Can you tell me what you think on that?
04:56:48.280Well, I was hoping that we would start to see some concentrated voting in certain ridings and getting some seats.
04:56:56.360um the the amount of support that we've seen out in public is uh it was actually overwhelming and
04:57:07.800you know what that might be oh sorry we're back yeah the like i was saying the the support that
04:57:15.400we've witnessed um has been overwhelming and uh i was hoping that we would see more more actual
04:57:23.400votes uh representing that support that we witnessed um we've been out in the public and and
04:57:30.760a lot more uh positive response than than negative and however there is that majority that's silent
04:57:39.320that uh as especially in sign waving you know we can see that there's a silent majority still
04:57:46.040but those that are supportive of us are very very outgoing and expressive of it
04:57:53.400all right as i mentioned i can't hear you guys but i'm gonna ask you at least one more question
04:57:56.920uh tell me what do you think for is this set a good result for next election for the people party
04:58:03.080to grow i believe it was over five percent of the popular vote yes i think so um uh we're we're
04:58:09.320definitely going to keep try and keep that momentum happening uh we're going to plan some act uh
04:58:14.600various activities to um to keep uh our party momentum going in between elections we gotta go
04:58:21.320to yeah get our message out that's the main thing um we we certainly tried to get our platform out
04:58:31.160to for people to consider and and and show the common sense uh approach from from it actually
04:58:38.120just one more question so maxime he didn't win his seat uh do you uh believe that uh there should be
04:58:45.240a leadership review do you believe he's the person to keep on or oh absolutely i i'm 100
04:58:50.760supportive of maxine um i uh i'd love to see him continue and uh he did he did express um
04:58:58.920that possibly there might be a leadership competition uh to see if if uh if there was
04:59:05.320uh more support for for a new face but um he's got a tremendous following uh strong support and i
04:59:12.600don't want to see him uh give up the leadership anytime soon all right guys well that's uh julius
04:59:18.280julius hoffman hit meadows maple ridge riding um back to you thanks for that field hit sean
04:59:28.040that's it thanks thanks again sean yeah thank you yeah hopefully we see
05:12:22.660Be the free French or first or second language.0.65
05:12:26.120Whether you worship on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays, every day or not at all, you are an important part of Canada and you have a place in the Conservative Party of Canada.
05:12:38.760Friends, I'm standing here tonight because of the steadfast support of my true partner,
05:23:55.020the very significant shift that he made in party policies away from conservative dogmas for better
05:24:01.700or worse and to come up with virtually the exact same result as Aaron O'Toole did. Do you think,
05:24:10.600how secure is Aaron O'Toole in this job? Because this doesn't sound like a man planning on
05:24:14.200stepping down. He's not secure and he's not planning on stepping down and he took big risks
05:24:19.460and he got no rewards for them. He can make the excuse that the PPC made it harder for him
05:24:24.920that's going to be true. The analysis will show that quite dramatically. But he didn't get
05:24:30.980anything for it. He kind of lied to win the leadership. He went from being the second most
05:24:37.140red person two leaderships ago to claiming to be true blue this last one. It's coming back to
05:24:41.940haunt him. Yeah, he's in a rough spot. But that's also why every paragraph in that speech mentioned
05:24:49.900Trudeau's threat of calling another election in 18 months. That was sort of a hint to the party
05:24:54.380that you can't afford another leadership race.
05:24:56.760We're getting another election in 18 months.
05:24:59.560You know, give me a second kick at the can.0.99
05:25:00.920I also found he was using some interesting, for lack of a better term, literary devices.
05:25:10.460He was linking his moves as leader with growth, his direction for the party with going forward,
05:25:21.260And then by implication that a return to the party's more traditional policies or perhaps I should, if I'm being a bit more cynical, a return to the leader they thought they were electing, that would be taking the party backwards and it would be shrinking the party.
05:25:43.760What's going to be his argument for, I guess he said, yeah, election's coming, you can't afford, you don't have time to change leaders.
05:25:50.280But in addition to the time argument, really, what's going to be his case before the Supreme Court of the Conservative Convention that reviews his leadership?
05:26:01.720In all honesty, I think you nailed it.
05:26:04.940He was using that literary advice about saying that he was looking forward, not looking backwards.
05:26:09.940And that's an exercise in trying to get the pundits and the political commentators on his side to sort of prop him up.
05:26:16.820you know, to, to get them to, to discuss any change in his leadership as a step backwards,
05:26:23.280to get them to frame this discussion in a way that's favorable to him.
05:26:29.120It's still a tough, tough spot. And frankly, his team made a mess of the last conservative
05:26:37.000convention. And, you know, in some ways he suffered for that because, you know, it was
05:26:43.020things that happened at that convention he was still getting attacked on even into the last week
05:26:47.320of the campaign um i think when they do the post-mortem on this election as people do more
05:26:52.400of the post-mortem they'll come to the conclusion that he had a pretty good start to the campaign
05:26:56.200but a pretty weak finish to the campaign um you know having had a good start to it he could have
05:27:02.920narrowed down to three things that he wanted to talk about every day or five things you know do
05:27:07.100the harper's five priorities and then just go and hit on that every day um they stopped doing that
05:27:12.840and they kind of hit him from the media a little bit i don't know why um you know if you're a soft
05:27:20.160red tory you better be counting on at least some percentage of the media as your base and if you're
05:27:25.700hiding from the media what's the point of being a soft red tory um so yeah he's in a rough spot
05:27:31.540and again like i said right now he's in the exact same spot as sheer with a slightly lower
05:27:37.080voter share count i think by the time they finish counting everything uh he'll have a slightly lower
05:27:44.180voter share count and probably have three or four less seats than sheer did and that's going to be a
05:27:50.620tough tough circumstance to recover from because it was an awful lot of people you know timo tool
05:27:56.440people that had the knives out for uh for andrew sheer and you know some of those people are going
05:28:03.420to be looking to, you know, to return some payback. Yeah, I think that's going to be coming
05:28:11.620right away. I'm only half surprised that O'Toole did not try tonight to explicitly blame Jason
05:28:22.660Kenny, although I don't think he has to say it himself, because the pundits are saying it for
05:28:28.000him. For him to say it himself would probably look like poor form. It'd look like a sore loser.
05:28:33.420and it looked like he's just not taking any responsibility for anything.
05:28:38.780And everyone's already saying it for him.
05:28:42.840I mean, right now, Alberta is a rumor mill.1.00
05:28:50.880You're probably hearing much of what we're hearing.
05:28:54.040If Kenny's had roles, do you think that'll almost serve as a sacrifice to the gods
05:28:58.700to satiate conservatives looking for blood right now?
05:29:02.580Will that, if Kenny's head rolls, does that help O'Toole keep his attached to his head?
05:29:11.940If Jason Kenney gets ousted, that in effect gives value to the unspoken argument that Jason Kenney kind of messed up the last week of this campaign for Aaron O'Toole.
05:45:17.680He's up 4%, the PPC's drawing 7% in that riding.
05:45:22.300That's the riding that just borders southern Alberta there, kind of just west of Lethbridge.
05:45:30.020I will note de facto Green Party leader Elizabeth May winning comfortably in Saanich Gulf Islands.
05:45:39.920Winning comfortably with just 36% of the vote, actually some of these weird Vancouver Island,
05:45:47.580like essentially four-way races, well the Conservatives are never really in contention
05:45:51.780but actually well yeah they're actually second or technically third but like third by a hair.
05:45:59.060four-way races on Vancouver Island. I know, Aaron, I met you actually working on a campaign on
05:46:04.420Vancouver Island, and those are some weird creatures on the island where, vote split?
05:46:10.500What's a vote split? Let's split the vote 12 ways. You could win a seat with 20% of the vote.
05:46:17.940Do you think this means Elizabeth May is going to have to be Green Leader? She's obviously going to1.00
05:46:22.980become, have to be interim Green Leader. I mean, NMA Paul, I don't know if she was in the right
05:46:28.020or the wrong and that internal fight that's not uh not my cup of tea but uh she seems pretty toast
05:46:35.220is elizabeth may gonna become the new leader of the green party beyond intern do you think
05:46:39.700are they gonna go back to the drawing board and elect another new leader
05:46:45.700well a green party internal politics is not my specialty either um but elizabeth may i i mean i
05:46:51.620thought she was she was hanging them up for for uh for life so we'll see if she jumps back in i1.00
05:46:57.620I don't know who this new Green Party guy that's been elected in Kitchener is or what his deal is or if they're just going to have another leadership race.
05:47:04.460But one of the in a in a night where the main story is pretty boring and nothing changes, there are some sub stories that are quite interesting.
05:47:13.860And one has definitely been the national collapse of the green vote.
05:47:17.980It's actually a kind of bizarre that we've had PPC go up, Green Party crash, a bunch of seats change hands on either side of the country.
05:47:25.820And yet kind of the top line result is still pretty much the same.