Western Standard - Making sense of Alberta’s kinda-sorta independence referendum

00:00:00.000 and we're live

00:00:05.600 live Derek

00:00:10.120 he's on mute

00:00:12.880 he muted himself

00:00:16.700 Derek you're on mute

00:00:21.700 my apologies

00:00:25.640 this is the perils

00:00:27.540 of going live

00:00:29.360 Just found out I was on mute.

00:00:31.240 Welcome to a special edition of The Pipeline.

00:00:33.540 It's not just our normal Friday gab fest.

00:00:37.620 You know what we're going to be talking about.

00:00:39.100 We're only going to be talking about one thing,

00:00:41.220 and that is the announcement by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith

00:00:44.780 that Albertans are going to be heading to the polls October 19th

00:00:49.320 to sort of vote on independence.

00:00:54.200 Maybe I'll throw it to Dave just to start to kind of set it up,

00:00:57.360 just kind of the background with the different petitions for citizens initiative campaigns

00:01:02.620 and the question that Albertans are going to be voting on on October 19th.

00:01:08.240 Yeah, it really is a referendum to have a referendum.

00:01:14.920 You'll remember the petition, the independence petition was blocked by a court of appeal justice.

00:01:24.500 So that couldn't go ahead.

00:01:26.120 So we had the stay in Canada petition by Thomas Lukasik that basically the Premier has accepted that question.

00:01:37.840 So on October 19th, the Albertans are going to be asked, do you want to stay in Canada or do you want to start the process to leave Canada?

00:01:47.920 And the reaction has been, you know, what you expect.

00:01:55.620 Those leading the independence sides are kind of going crazy.

00:02:00.980 People like Corey will tell you that the independence group should use this

00:02:06.260 and, you know, get themselves more organized and whatnot.

00:02:10.760 But, yeah, Albertans will have a say October 19th.

00:02:13.920 Do you want to stay as part of Canada, or do you want to start the process to become an independent country?

00:02:22.100 So this referendum isn't precisely what anyone asked for, but it's a combination of what people had asked for that I don't think makes anyone quite happy.

00:02:34.660 If you talk to the Forever Canada petitioners, they claim that the referendum petition they signed was to not have a referendum.

00:02:43.100 I mean it's kind of like the pull-out method of not having referendums like accidents are

00:02:52.080 going to happen guys especially with the act you're engaging in so they're getting so father

00:02:58.760 of the nation of Alberta nationhood Thomas Lukasik got his way legally speaking he's going to get

00:03:06.780 a referendum on should Alberta stay in Canada, as Dave said, there were injunctions against

00:03:15.700 the State Free Alberta petition, which was a straightforward Clarity Act compliant question on

00:03:22.300 should Alberta become, seems to be a province and become an independent country. That's not on the

00:03:28.480 ballot because of some very bizarre court rulings saying that, you know, massively expanding the

00:03:35.760 duty to consult with indigenous groups to be the consultation has to be before even deciding to

00:03:43.120 pursue something so i guess if we were to apply this to say a pipeline before you announce you

00:03:48.980 even want to build a pipeline you have to do the consultation it's it's absolutely insane

00:03:53.680 very good chance this gets struck down in appeal in higher courts at some point but that's years

00:03:59.620 down the road everybody probably remembers how many years it took in fights over the carbon tax

00:04:03.760 going to the supreme court uh fights over the no more pipelines act those kinds of things these

00:04:09.140 things take years so if there is going to be a referendum in the fall it's not allowed oddly

00:04:15.200 enough the the federal courts ruled that alberta cannot have a referendum in compliance with the

00:04:22.460 federal clarity act and the supreme court of canada's ruling around uh the secession reference

00:04:29.960 case. So it's very contradictory, but these things take years to sort out. So I think what,

00:04:38.660 Corey, I want to go to you here. I think this is not going to make a lot of in the independence

00:04:44.800 camp happy because it's not a vote on independence. It's a vote on if Alberta should begin the process

00:04:51.300 of moving towards a formal vote on independence. It's a referendum on if we should have a referendum.

00:04:59.960 I don't know, how charitable should we be, say, from a pro-independence perspective, how charitable should we be, you know, on is this the best that could be hoped for in the circumstances with these court rulings?

00:05:14.180 Or is it as, say, guys like Jeffrey Rath are saying this is a cop-out and Smith needs to be overthrown and someone else installed?

00:05:22.980 Well, I mean, I don't like this.

00:05:24.680 I've been an independence advocate since I didn't have gray hair.

00:05:27.740 and uh you know we were coming closer to what we thought might be a definitive clear vote

00:05:32.520 based on the clarity act an actual binding one closer than we'd ever seen before

00:05:37.140 and now it's it's sort of been kicked down the road but that said uh despite what with some of

00:05:43.900 the people like mr wrath and others who it seems have spent years trying to get rid of premier

00:05:48.220 smith she can't put a binary question on the ballot i've talked to a number of people because

00:05:53.500 i was wondering about it like is it possible for her just to say too bad we're going to put it on

00:05:57.040 And no, the second a binary question goes on the ballot, it will go to court and the courts will rule the same thing.

00:06:04.440 This appeal process has to be drawn out, unfortunately.

00:06:08.300 This is the uncharted water of a modern independence movement.

00:06:12.060 Because, yeah, I know Quebec didn't have to deal with that in 1995, but the world has changed a lot legally since then.

00:06:18.360 And the requirement is ridiculous and it's something appealable and hopefully winnable because, as you said, it'll apply to things like pipelines and such.

00:06:24.900 but the independence movement can't just toss up their hands and give up they've been given a

00:06:29.940 question to chew on which is still important and they can campaign for it they can you know

00:06:34.940 don't worry about freaking out at the provincial government you'll have time for that later

00:06:38.860 you still want to at least get as good and affirmative to wanting to move on in the process

00:06:43.820 to becoming independent than uh you know rather than sitting around waiting for an appeal so you

00:06:48.700 were given something to work on and even if i don't even like the way the question's structured

00:06:54.700 But all the same, you kind of got to make do with what you got or, you know, the lemons and lemonade thing and see what you can make of it, because otherwise you're just giving up.

00:07:05.000 And if you get that affirmative, then you really do have some grounds to say, look, the premier now has a mandate.

00:07:12.640 Now she should, well, whatever it might take, start what would be called a consultation process or something, but move those mechanisms forward towards a real referendum.

00:07:21.760 And to be honest, it might be a bit of a blessing in disguise.

00:07:24.560 Keith Wilson said the quiet part out loud.

00:07:27.420 The movement hasn't actually been gaining any steam in the polls,

00:07:30.260 and they might not have been leading to a win this fall anyway.

00:07:34.320 Yeah, there's a few ways to go with this.

00:07:37.160 I know you said you weren't happy with the structure of this.

00:07:39.260 I actually do like a referendum that's not necessarily yes or no,

00:07:44.020 but it's more of an A or B.

00:07:46.620 So, you know, rather, do you want this yes or no?

00:07:48.540 it's, do you want option A or do you want option B? I actually kind of like that. I think it's a

00:07:54.360 bit more neutral than a yes or no. I don't like that they use the word separation in it. Because

00:08:00.460 separation and independence, while they largely mean the same thing, they don't necessarily mean

00:08:05.740 the same thing. Because separation, some of it is just rhetorical. The analogy I always use is

00:08:12.560 separation is like going to the bar and saying, hey, I'm divorced. Independence is like going to

00:08:19.160 the bar and say, hey, I'm single. They kind of mean the same thing, but they imply something

00:08:24.100 different. Separation, I think, could be a whole other kettle of worms, including 51st state

00:08:31.220 annexation of stuff that overwhelmingly people are not particularly interested in. I know there'll

00:08:36.060 be a few people who are, but it's a very, that's a vanishingly small group. Independence means

00:08:40.480 independence alberta becomes its own country with its own alliances its own trade agreements

00:08:44.700 separation could mean that or it could mean other stranger options that are

00:08:50.120 have have less mainstream appeal um uh to uh to cory's point nigel um you know keith wilson

00:09:00.300 i i think our he's kind of said part of the quiet part the quiet part out loud uh yesterday last

00:09:05.340 night after the premier's speech, that this is a safer question. It's more likely to get a better

00:09:13.880 showing and even possibly succeed. Again, this is still an uphill battle to succeed, but a lot of

00:09:20.200 people who are soft sovereignists or very frustrated federalists, depending on the terminology you're

00:09:28.060 using here. This gives them permission to vote for the have a vote to have later vote or have

00:09:37.340 a referendum to hold a referendum option, the kind of pro-independence side of it. It gives them the

00:09:41.940 permission to vote for it without the risks involved, that it's, you know, voting for this

00:09:49.120 doesn't mean we wake up tomorrow in the Republic of Alberta. This is a way to send a message to

00:09:54.740 advance things along to demonstrate 1.00

00:09:56.700 Alberta's grievances, that it's upset

00:09:58.820 and wants a radical change to the status

00:10:00.680 quo, without actually

00:10:02.480 firing the shot,

00:10:04.500 without actually throwing the tea into the harbour.

00:10:07.860 How do you

00:10:08.780 take to that?

00:10:10.840 I think you said it all there,

00:10:12.900 Derek, really.

00:10:14.400 I'm just looking at it from the point of view

00:10:16.620 of what else could

00:10:18.720 Scremier Smith realistically

00:10:20.800 do? On the one hand,

00:10:22.900 if she does nothing, just says, well, they are, the judge spoke, and that settles the matter,

00:10:28.180 that's not going to satisfy very many people on either side of the argument.

00:10:32.700 This, at least, as you said, puts it out there and gives people a chance to express an opinion.

00:10:42.340 I mean, whichever side you're taking, 700,000 people out of a population of four and a half

00:10:48.980 million, not all of whom are old enough to vote, 700,000 people have said that they want to express

00:10:54.420 their opinion on Alberta independence, either staying in Canada or going a different way.

00:11:00.860 That's a sizable amount of people who would be frustrated, rightly so, if they don't get that

00:11:08.560 opportunity. So it wasn't a perfect solution from the Premier's point of view, but it certainly

00:11:14.220 will satisfy, for now, that part of her caucus, which is independence-minded, without alienating

00:11:22.260 that part of the caucus, which I see to be now in the ascendant, which is hammering, well, more

00:11:29.800 time in the very least, but probably a pro-Canada position. So I think, you know, there's some,

00:11:36.400 the other thing about the timing of all this, very significant, last Friday, we had a

00:11:42.780 The Premier had a meeting with Prime Minister Carney.

00:11:46.200 They agreed something which a lot of people are pretty cynical about.

00:11:49.540 But anyway, apparently, if all goes well, you'll get a signal on October the 1st about the pipeline, whether there's going to be one, whether it's going forward.

00:12:03.120 Right. Well, that's just a couple of weeks before this referendum vote, which is still not really a referendum vote, but it's a signal of how people are feeling.

00:12:11.180 And I would think that you'd get a pretty significant read on how Albertans really feel

00:12:16.140 if they believe, as many will, that, on Mr. Carney's word, something is being done and

00:12:22.280 it'll be good.

00:12:24.220 We'll see how keen they are to pursue the independence track.

00:12:29.280 I think actually that's going to be a significant moment for the independence movement to see

00:12:33.780 where people are still with them if they think that maybe something better could come out

00:12:37.280 of central Canada after all.

00:12:39.580 So anyone can pick up on this one. I come back to an earlier point I made that the courts, by making this bizarre ruling that the duty to consult indigenous groups has to take place before the vote,

00:12:59.100 They have maybe unintentionally gutted the Clarity Act and gutted the Supreme Court of Canada's late 1990s secession reference case, which required that to begin the process of a province seceding or becoming independent, that there must be a clear majority on a clear question.

00:13:22.660 And because they have refused to allow a referendum on a clear question, they have essentially thrown us back to where we were with Quebec's two independence referendums or quasi-sovereignty referendums, which is kind of the point here.

00:13:42.960 very much to its credit the Alberta independence movement has had no truck or trade with

00:13:48.420 these weird convoluted questions that we saw in Quebec both I think first in 1980 or whatnot

00:13:57.280 with Rene Levesque circa 1980 which was this long convoluted essentially it was a paragraph

00:14:03.440 saying you know blah blah blah blah blah and sovereignty and association very convoluted

00:14:11.400 And then a still convoluted, although less so, but still quite messy question asked in 1995, the one that nearly passed with 49.9%. Alberta's independence movement has said, we don't want any part of that. Those are mushy questions. They're wishy-washy.

00:14:29.840 Maybe it helps get you a higher vote turnout on your side, but we want to be clear.

00:14:35.060 Does Alberta want to be independent or not?

00:14:38.140 Very clear, to its credit.

00:14:40.340 And the court, by mucking with this, has said you can't have that question, kind of necessitating Alberta then to have these more convoluted, indirect questions.

00:14:50.940 I put it to any of you

00:14:54.240 has the

00:14:56.120 Supreme Court of Canada gutted its

00:14:57.980 own decisions here and

00:14:59.860 thrown us back into Quebec style weird

00:15:01.980 convoluted unclear questions

00:15:03.820 well let me pick up on this Derek because I think

00:15:06.200 what you what the

00:15:07.700 Judge Shania 1.00

00:15:09.860 Leonard did was actually 0.99

00:15:12.060 establish the Supreme Court

00:15:13.780 as a piece of government as

00:15:15.860 opposed to a judicial proceeding

00:15:18.240 and I think for anybody

00:15:20.020 you seriously interested in the politics of the country, that's a tremendously important

00:15:25.700 decision that she made there because she's no longer arbitrating the actions of Parliament.

00:15:34.400 She has actually inserted herself into the whole decision-making process.

00:15:40.040 Well, that's not a new thing.

00:15:42.120 Our courts have been doing that really ever since the Charter in the Constitution Act

00:15:47.660 in 1984.

00:15:48.660 situation knows very well that by making the decision that she made which many people think

00:15:56.620 is highly questionable she has effectively punted that referendum into some time in the next

00:16:01.760 20 years which was her whole goal now that is a governmental action that is something if that's

00:16:10.400 how people feel about it that's something that the parliament of canada should have had the guts to

00:16:15.380 uh bring forward the the the clarity act and propose an amendment and say no we're not going

00:16:21.300 to do this anymore then the judge could arbitrate whether that was properly done but for the judge

00:16:26.740 to simply rewrite the constitution which is effectively you're right they've been doing it

00:16:31.060 for a long time but the force of example has pushed this particular judge into a situation

00:16:36.580 where she is interfering with a very delicate political process and uh you know in fact if

00:16:44.660 Alberta ever does become independent let there not be that kind of relationship between the judiciary

00:16:52.340 and the politics between the the unelected officials and the elected officials. This is

00:16:58.820 something that needs to be dealt with by elected officials not by judges. Well Corey this kind of

00:17:04.820 judicial activism inserting itself into the governance process going into the realm that

00:17:10.340 is supposed to be the purview of parliament or the legislatures this has been going on since the

00:17:14.340 the Constitution Act 1982. This is not a new thing. But what I think is interesting here,

00:17:21.020 kind of going back to my earlier point, is the federal court here, which remember is still below

00:17:27.180 the Supreme Court, but the federal court in Alberta, it contradicted the Supreme Court in

00:17:35.380 the secession reference case. So this is not just a court against parliament or a court

00:17:42.160 against a provincial legislature it is a court against the supreme court um and so we're left

00:17:50.480 because of this contradictory ruling the supreme court says you have to have a clear majority on

00:17:55.920 a clear question and then the federal court here a true to appointed judge the federal court says

00:18:02.420 but you're not allowed to have a clear question so this leaves you either with no question

00:18:08.580 or a convoluted question and then that convoluted question the supreme court would then say very

00:18:14.880 rightly is not legitimate grounds to begin the process of negotiating independence um so uh is

00:18:23.460 it is it fair to say then that this court has essentially thrown us back into the pre-secession

00:18:29.220 supreme court reference case landscape where it's just kind of a wild west and it's forcing

00:18:35.820 us to have a convoluted Quebec style question on the referendum. Yeah, it changed the requirements

00:18:43.260 and inserted a poison pill into it. But it is temporary, or we'll see about temporary. There's

00:18:49.540 another level now that this is going to go up when it goes into appeal. And from my understanding,

00:18:53.600 the appeals court will have three justices looking at it, and they'll be basically judging

00:19:00.300 the judgment and this could become more nuanced and there's a better chance that they're going to

00:19:06.380 look at this and say no you didn't have the authority or this wasn't legitimate to be able

00:19:11.740 to override a prior supreme court reference case where so much time and effort and dedication was

00:19:17.420 put into it or maybe they'll they'll hold it up if they hold it up then this is going to go all

00:19:22.220 the way to the supreme court the other wild card and i'm surprised with how silent they've been so

00:19:26.620 far, though, is Quebec. You know that the sovereignist movement over there can't be

00:19:31.480 impressed with this. And, you know, they may not have a majority support for independence in Quebec

00:19:37.020 right now, but even soft independent supporters and so on don't like being told you aren't allowed

00:19:41.520 to consider it, whether it's Alberta or in Quebec. And Justice Leonard might not care if she infuriates

00:19:47.600 Quebecers, but I suspect a higher level of court might take those kind of things into consideration

00:19:52.180 before changing the rules on what a province may or may not do under the Clarity Act.

00:19:56.620 I'd like to get back into the speech itself last night, Derek, and for the first time

00:20:04.460 Smith coming out solidly on the side of Canada.

00:20:09.300 She said that she's always been in favour of a sovereign Alberta within Canada, but

00:20:15.240 for the first time she said that she will be voting to stay in Canada.

00:20:19.240 So is she positioning herself to be Captain Canada for the referendum?

00:20:24.540 Is she going to join forces with Jason Kenney, as weird as that could be?

00:20:30.120 And will those two be the top fighters for the Stay in Canada movement?

00:20:35.940 It's going to be interesting because she sure was as strongly as I've ever heard her say that Alberta needs to stay in Canada.

00:20:44.560 Well, maybe she had no point, Dave.

00:20:48.460 Maybe there was really no alternative.

00:20:50.480 they're so busy uh organizing to booster that she is forced now to take a side and she's not going

00:20:58.400 with the crazies on the uh on the um radicals shall i call them on the independent because

00:21:05.200 they've clearly rejected her yeah oh you're talking about cory

00:21:12.000 now there's talk about uh doing the same thing to smith as uh as they did to kenny and getting uh

00:21:18.160 individual constituencies to declare non-confidence and i think they need

00:21:23.280 22 or 23 of different constituencies to do that and then that would force a leadership review and

00:21:30.400 we all remember jason kenny just barely squeaking by but but realizing that it wasn't good enough

00:21:35.920 and uh and he had to resign so i guess well let's remember he he he rigged it several times they

00:21:41.760 changed the rules multiple times as they knew they were going to fail so he cheated just to

00:21:45.920 to get like 52 percent or whatever 53 i'm not sure exactly what it was but they cheated just

00:21:51.600 to get that much uh so let's be clear he didn't he didn't actually win but yeah i i take your point

00:21:57.220 i want to i want to get into dave's point further cory um the uh smith has uh

00:22:05.640 we'll just zoom out for a second she is keenly aware that no alberta conservative premier has

00:22:11.980 completed a single term since

00:22:14.060 Ralph Klein in 2004. I was

00:22:15.980 in high school when that happened.

00:22:17.900 She is very aware of it. She

00:22:19.820 very much wants to break

00:22:21.580 that curse and be the first

00:22:23.600 conservative premier to at least

00:22:25.980 finish a single term. Quite

00:22:27.840 an accomplishment.

00:22:30.480 And she knows that

00:22:31.940 the threat is not primarily

00:22:33.740 from the NDP. It is always from the right

00:22:36.020 populist flank of

00:22:38.160 her own party. 0.93

00:22:40.380 And she has...

00:22:41.980 They quite masterfully kept that flank in the party. Now, it's not universally independence. It's, as I said, it's right populist. So it's a grab bag of issues. There's a Venn diagram. There's all sorts of things. And, you know, the energy behind it was against COVID restrictions at a time. But a lot of those people were also independence.

00:23:00.920 Now, independence is the issue at the fore of it.

00:23:04.960 So I know that I think we saw some of the guys on maybe some of the harder edge of the independence movement.

00:23:13.500 We had Jeff Raff, David Parker.

00:23:15.780 They're calling for the overthrow of Smith here.

00:23:19.440 I'm not sure how representative that is of the movement more broadly.

00:23:22.980 I know Parker called for the overthrow of Smith at her last leadership review.

00:23:27.180 she still got like 93 per circa 93 percent so it didn't seem to have really any impact then

00:23:33.480 um wrath uh i don't maybe has a bit maybe he's got more pull i don't know but uh

00:23:41.260 this question is not going to satisfy a lot of people in the independence movement obviously

00:23:47.020 because it's not a clear question but her hands are largely tied by the courts until this gets

00:23:51.220 through the appellate stage so she's given this as a sort of amuse-bouche or an appetizer to

00:23:57.580 keep something going at least in the meantime at least let Albertans speak out on the direction

00:24:05.280 they want to go if not the decision itself do you think that is going to be enough to keep most of

00:24:12.080 the independence camp happy with her leadership supporting her continuing as premier or do you

00:24:18.600 think this is not going to be enough and actually opens up a threat to her leadership.

00:24:24.380 Yeah, I think that could be wrong. I mean, it is true that the threat always comes from the right

00:24:29.420 and she's got to watch that flank. But they're the same vocal actors, a minority within a minority

00:24:34.880 that have been screaming about her for a couple of years now. And as you said, a number of those

00:24:39.000 same actors were very active in trying to get a negative leadership review years ago, and they

00:24:43.900 garnered 93% support for. Speaking anecdotally, I mean, I've been speaking at a lot of those public

00:24:49.400 meetings lately, and I didn't get home till two in the morning last night from one of them up in

00:24:52.660 Round Hill, which was a good opportunity, actually, to speak to some people on the ground. And, you

00:24:58.320 know, when you get face to face with people, and that's exactly the sort of discussion we were all

00:25:03.460 having last night, people aren't necessarily thrilled with where things have gone or how they

00:25:07.080 have, and they'd like to see, you know, more movement towards independence. But I'm not seeing

00:25:12.100 the inclination to get out the torches and pitchforks for premier smith at that point even

00:25:16.520 if they're not fully happy with her i think it's more of a vocal element on social media of a few

00:25:23.540 rather than representative of the whole who might have a bit more of a pragmatic streak or like

00:25:28.180 other actions smith has done she still can't avoid it i think that's why she's you know if there was

00:25:34.320 no risk at all i think she would just avoid having a referendum altogether she had to offer some kind

00:25:38.660 a bone and this is what it was whether it'll be enough to satisfy I think it will but we'll see

00:25:43.960 I guess in coming weeks uh Nigel I'd like your take and maybe Dave as well on the other side

00:25:52.220 here Smith has been walking the most incredible tightrope I have ever seen a politician walk

00:25:58.580 and she has she has thus far successfully succeeded but the the headlines across Canada

00:26:05.720 last night and in the evening was Alberta's having more or less an independence referendum-ish

00:26:14.840 and she is denounced as a traitor despite her saying that she would vote to stay in Canada

00:26:22.040 but she thinks this question needs to be settled the people of Alberta need to speak

00:26:25.900 she doesn't want this to preoccupy us for all time we have to be able to move forward in one

00:26:29.780 direction or another um the ucp is a weird coalition right now it's got a majority of its

00:26:39.140 voters and probably even bigger majority of its members are alberta uh nationalists broadly

00:26:46.540 speaking uh but probably uh but independents as well but there's a there's a big minority of

00:26:52.480 federalists who still vote ucp there's a big minority of federalists who are still members

00:26:57.340 of the ucp i think the higher up the food chain of the party you go the more federalist it gets

00:27:02.060 and the lower to the grassroots you get the more the more nationalist it is um cory spoke on on

00:27:09.360 the nationalist side about if it's enough does this go too far do you think to keep most federalists

00:27:15.880 who are in the ucp uh from breaking into open revolt against her because i i she uh she's she's 0.99

00:27:24.160 facing uh this is kind of her schlieffen plan she's trying to fight on two fronts and strike

00:27:30.140 one quickly before she can go after the other and uh she's getting it from the federalist side

00:27:36.720 she's getting it from uh you know obviously the left wing you know the nanshiite she's getting

00:27:42.120 it from the federal liberals uh jason kenny has measured his language not to go after her

00:27:49.380 personally he goes after the movement and his criticisms of her have been indirect and tactile

00:27:54.600 but other proxies around him have have gone after her directly and we've got people in the ucp nate

00:28:02.040 horner guys like that who are no longer in cabinet who have spoken against there being a referendum

00:28:07.840 but have not gone after her directly where do you think the risk is for her with federalists

00:28:15.540 in her party right now as a potential risk to her leadership, that they break an open revolt?

00:28:21.680 I don't think that's very strong at all, Derek. And the reason that I would say that is that

00:28:26.740 if she has declared, and she has, that she is pro-Canada as opposed to pro-Alberta independence,

00:28:34.100 she is in sync with the larger part of the opinion in Alberta. I mean, the most optimistic

00:28:41.880 polls, and Corey, by all means, correct me if I'm off by a few digits, but the most optimistic

00:28:47.760 polls that I have seen in support of Alberta independence are less than 40%, which means that

00:28:56.380 60% of the people polled are pro-Canada, and she has aligned herself with that faction.

00:29:04.280 So if this ever comes to a real election issue, then she has got those people who might not

00:29:12.760 otherwise have been supportive of the UCP on her side. They may not all vote for her, but at least

00:29:20.040 they're not... Well, but that's not where I'm going with this question. Also, I would say,

00:29:24.120 I wouldn't call the other side necessarily pro-Canada. It involves a lot of people who

00:29:27.320 hate Canada, tear down the statues of Sir John McDonnell, James the Anthem.

00:29:30.680 i would call those people federalists uh but i i take your point i know i know you're going

00:29:37.440 but i know my point is um yes she has declared that she's on the federalist side she'll vote

00:29:43.740 federalist in the referendum but the federalists are pretty outraged that the referendum is taking

00:29:50.720 place anyway even though 400 000 of them signed a petition demanding a referendum on this uh i mean 0.99

00:29:57.700 play stupid games win stupid prizes is uh is the warning i'd have for them but um they're outraged 0.98

00:30:04.280 that she's called the referendum to begin with um so even though she's said she'll vote on the 1.00

00:30:09.980 federalist side she is proceeding with the referendum and they're angry about that referendum

00:30:15.380 so that's where i i'm asking i want your opinion on if there's a threat from the federalists within

00:30:21.500 the ucp that she has from their perspective pandered to the nationalists uh that she has

00:30:27.900 uh facilitated them and let this go on too far by allowing a referendum to begin with

00:30:32.880 well 24 hours after the event there probably will be some anger but as they think about it they'll 0.90

00:30:37.680 realize there wasn't really much else that she could have done how would they have felt if she

00:30:41.980 had done nothing probably well the issue remains unresolved you've got to get well that's that's

00:30:46.820 they say they want they want her to do nothing yeah well what was your cute phrase there the 1.00

00:30:53.380 silly arguments stupid play stupid games win stupid prizes no this is this has to be dealt 1.00

00:31:01.780 with i mean you may be a federalist but you can't just say that when 37 40 of your neighbors think 1.00

00:31:09.460 very differently to you that this is something that the premier of the province would just

00:31:14.580 overlook carry on as if nothing had happened it needs to be dealt with and this actually

00:31:19.860 in terms of the of the phrasing of the of the referendum question is about as benign as it

00:31:26.420 could get if you are a federalist the um just to just to remind us all the uh the question

00:31:35.860 is um should alberta remain a province of canada or should the government of alberta commence

00:31:42.580 legal process well you know in fact you're a federalist get up there and vote the way you feel

00:31:51.380 i think it was apropos i just had my cuckoo clock i have to apologize for my cuckoo clock going off

00:31:56.660 and the whole conversation is a bit cuckoo so i i think it was a bit apropos uh dave go ahead

00:32:03.060 i i think the federalists will will all see that uh the courts have had tied premier smith's hands

00:32:09.380 She's played the only card she really has left and I think played it quite masterfully.

00:32:14.900 Coming out and then saying that she's going to be Captain Canada will thrill the Federalists

00:32:21.540 because they've now got their leader. And I think she's also taken away the argument that

00:32:30.660 the Nenshiites have that she is a separatist herself. Well, no, she's denied that now and

00:32:36.020 equivalently such that she is not. And she says her party is not. Sorry, yeah, you know, the UCP

00:32:43.560 caucus is not. So that takes away all the Nenshi arguments that she's a separatist leader running 0.99

00:32:50.340 a separatist government. For anybody to say that Daniel Smith is now a separatist, they're just

00:32:56.060 silly. It's just silly. She's not a separatist at all. Yeah, well, I think their argument is, 1.00

00:33:01.600 even if she is not their argument is she's pandering to the nationalists she's facilitating

00:33:08.460 the nationalists and there is some argument there she is allowing the process to go forward

00:33:13.040 and and I would say the government is not uh pro-independence but the membership and the

00:33:20.400 voters are dominantly pro-independence and I think that is a fair criticism but you know as

00:33:26.360 as nigel said what is she going to do she's damned if she does damned if she doesn't uh if

00:33:31.960 she didn't didn't call a referendum and the the anger would would would grow and i think the

00:33:37.000 independence uh independence thoughts would would would get higher but by doing this now i think 0.54

00:33:42.920 she's cutting the uh you know she's trying to cut the legs out from the uh from the independent 0.72

00:33:47.560 supporters and if it comes back in october that let's say 30 percent of people vote for uh you

00:33:55.080 know trying to succeed from canada and 70 say to stay then i think she's got the argument that she

00:34:01.240 can uh you know this this may go away for several years the whole independence argument not necessarily

00:34:07.640 replace her as leader but uh certainly the the independence yeah i uh i i'm not with you dave

00:34:16.200 in saying that she is going to be the leader of the federalist side here i mean she's declared

00:34:21.400 that she's going to vote that way um but i'm i'll put this to whoever wants to pick up uh in the

00:34:28.260 group here but i don't think she's going to be out stumping every day at pro-federalist rallies

00:34:35.560 the people who are going to come out to pro-federalist rallies are overwhelmingly going

00:34:38.980 to be ndp supporters federal liberal supporters uh because the majority of her own voters and the

00:34:46.060 and the probably the big majority of her party's members support independence they're nationalists

00:34:51.340 or Alberta nationalists.

00:34:53.340 So I think she's declared herself for it.

00:34:55.500 She'll probably make a few statements.

00:34:58.200 But I suspect she's going to keep a fairly low,

00:35:02.100 try to keep a fairly low profile during the campaign.

00:35:05.840 I think the leaders of this

00:35:09.840 are going to be dominantly Jason Kenney and Nahid Nenshi.

00:35:15.440 And Pierre Pauly, I've said yesterday

00:35:17.600 when this was announced

00:35:19.040 that he's going to be out here campaigning.

00:35:20.360 He'll be here as well. But I would posit that Danielle Smith has declared herself on one side, but she's going to fight kind of a phony war. 1.00

00:35:31.300 She's going to sit behind the lion's ear and let this play out.

00:35:37.520 Well, I would agree with that.

00:35:41.500 Go ahead, Corey.

00:35:43.760 Well, I'm just saying that, again, she's still she's put something out there, but she's still maintaining the tightrope walk.

00:35:50.360 And she can't fall too heavily on one side or the other.

00:35:54.180 So she's standing in the middle right now.

00:35:56.080 She's declared herself a Federalist, yet offered the mechanism for independence people to continue to move the movement forward. 0.84

00:36:03.000 But to actually get out and overtly campaign on this would really split her movement. 0.99

00:36:10.140 It really would upset the independence side of things that she's trying to keep piped down and quell them.

00:36:17.720 There's no sense in flaming them further.

00:36:19.140 They're already a little upset with the phrasing of the question.

00:36:22.520 So I think occasionally she's going to pop up and reassert that she is indeed in favor of a United Canada.

00:36:28.540 But she will leave it to Lukasic, Kenny, and the rest to do the actual formal campaigning.

00:36:34.740 And she can sit in the background because Paul Lingsaldi on one side or the other is asking to split the party.

00:36:42.000 Yeah.

00:36:42.760 Okay.

00:36:43.460 Well, we had a great conversation.

00:36:45.760 I like pipeline was just one really good topic and we can really dig into it.

00:36:50.200 And we're not, we're not too limited by keeping it into shorter segments.

00:36:54.340 So I think we had a, I think we had a great chat today.

00:36:56.840 I want to thank everyone, Dave, Corey, Nigel,

00:37:00.620 and John on production and everyone who joined us here today.

00:37:03.100 Before I let everyone go though, I want to introduce,

00:37:05.740 this has been six and a half years coming.

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00:37:24.140 bring up a screenshot here of the store

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00:37:30.380 is where you can go we've got

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00:38:21.100 We're going to have a lot more to say about this.

00:38:23.160 This is going to dominate everything in Alberta, possibly in Canada, all the way through to October 19th.

00:38:30.920 We're just getting started.

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00:38:38.120 Thank you very much, everyone, for joining us and God bless.

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Western Standard - May 22, 2026

Making sense of Alberta’s kinda-sorta independence referendum

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