Western Standard - July 11, 2024


Nenshi’s momentum is stunted by his lack of a legislative seat

Mentioned
Christina Gray Danielle Smith
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Episode Stats


Length

3 minutes

Words per minute

234.32

Word count

918

Sentence count

45


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi is without a seat in the Alberta legislature, and he's not happy about it. He's working hard on the pancake circuit to get his name out there, but it's no easy task.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Now, usually a top priority for a new political party leader is to get a seat in the legislature or parliament, depending on their level of government.
00:00:07.340 But Alberta NDP leader Nenshi has been pretending that he isn't in a hurry to seek a seat in the Alberta legislature, but that's anything but true.
00:00:15.260 I mean, having ridden into the NDP leadership with a very impressive level of party support, people anticipated Nenshi's political ascendancy would progress quickly.
00:00:22.840 Instead, though, it stalled.
00:00:24.280 I mean, the first comprehensive poll held in Alberta since he won the leadership has found that support for the NDP has been flatlined, and they're trailing Daniel Smith's UCP by 14 points.
00:00:35.280 Typically, a new party leader can expect a honeymoon with the electors and maybe even a bump in support, but this hasn't happened with Nenshi.
00:00:41.560 I mean, he's proven himself to be a formidable organizer in the leadership race, but he just hasn't endeared himself to the electorate at large.
00:00:47.740 Nenshi's working hard right now on the pancake circuit while the legacy media dutifully carries water for him with breathless coverage on how well-attended the heads and events have been, but the public at large really hasn't taken notice of him.
00:01:00.140 And when the summer ends and the public events dry up, Nenshi's going to be challenged by his lack of a seat more than ever.
00:01:05.780 The legislative session's going to begin this fall in Alberta, and some unknown backbench MLA named Christina Gray will serve as the leader of the opposition while Nenshi remains on the outside looking in.
00:01:15.260 And many Albertans don't know who Nenshi really is.
00:01:17.800 If a person isn't an avid CBC viewer or didn't live in Calgary during his reign as mayor, they really aren't too familiar with the guy, actually.
00:01:25.320 And it's going to take more than flipping some pancakes at rodeos to get people to know him.
00:01:28.800 The legislature is the natural place to establish himself as an opposition leader and potential future premier.
00:01:33.820 It's where Nenshi can hold the premier's feet to the fire on policies and where he can promote NDP motions.
00:01:39.300 It would keep him in the news scroll and establish him in the minds of Albertans as a possible premier in waiting.
00:01:44.020 But alas, for now, the best Nenshi can do is hang around the legislature atrium after sessions and hope that a reporter wants to speak with him.
00:01:51.920 With media outlets getting smaller, few, aside from the Western Standard, of course, have the resources to keep a reporter on site in the legislature full time.
00:01:59.200 Those other outlets garner their information from debates on bills and get video clips from the legislative session.
00:02:03.880 They don't sit in groups to scrum party leaders in the lobby as they used to.
00:02:07.320 Nenshi's a canny political player.
00:02:08.680 Sure, he knows he's at a terrible disadvantage as a leader without a seat, but for now, there's not a bloody thing he can do about it.
00:02:13.660 It's beautiful.
00:02:14.720 Normally, somebody within a party would be willing to step aside from a safe seat for a new leader.
00:02:19.940 Clearly, right now, nobody within the NDP caucus is willing to do that for Nenshi.
00:02:23.640 Part of the problem is that Nenshi can't offer great incentives for an MLA to fall on their sword and give them their seat.
00:02:29.960 A party in power can offer all sorts of appointments to ensure an MLA taking one for the team has a soft landing.
00:02:34.560 A party in opposition is kind of limited when it comes to such political horse trading.
00:02:38.980 The safest seats for the NDP are in Edmonton.
00:02:41.460 There may be an MLA or two up there willing to step aside and make room for Nenshi, but it wouldn't be ideal for him.
00:02:46.160 If the NDP can't make gains in Calgary, they don't have a chance of winning the next election.
00:02:50.180 They want to keep Nenshi in Calgary where they hope to build a more solid base of support.
00:02:54.200 In Calgary, there are a few seats that would be considered safe, but the MLA sitting in them aren't going to move over for Nenshi.
00:02:59.500 This indicates Nenshi isn't as popular within the party ranks as some people might think.
00:03:03.280 I mean, sure, he won the leadership with an astounding level of support, but to get a seat, he needs some love coming from the old NDP stalwarts, and it doesn't appear to be there.
00:03:11.040 While Lethbridge West is open and will be holding a by-election soon, it's far from a safe seat for Nenshi.
00:03:15.480 He could possibly run and lose down there, but that would cause some pretty deep embarrassment.
00:03:20.160 He's better off to bide his time than take such a risk.
00:03:22.680 It's still going to be more than three years until the next general election, and Nenshi's surely going to find his way into the legislature before then.
00:03:27.600 But he isn't riding the wave of popularity that the legacy media implies, though, and he needs every advantage he can get.
00:03:34.000 With every month, he sits forlornly outside the legislature begging for attention, while another MLA serves as opposition leader.
00:03:41.300 Nenshi's just going to look weaker and weaker.
00:03:42.980 Being seatless right now is an inconvenience for Nenshi, but the quest for his seat is going to turn into desperation pretty soon if he doesn't get a chance to pursue it soon.
00:03:49.960 So, sit back and watch.
00:03:51.960 Let's see if he can buy the love of another NDP member soon.