What's next for Canada's Conservatives after losing a seat in the House of Commons to the Liberal Party of Canada? In this episode, we talk to Jenny Roth, a partner at Crestview Strategies, former communications director for the party, and a long-time Poilier of Interpreter.
00:01:38.940Very nice to have you. Thank you for taking the time.
00:01:41.240Jenny, there's a lot of talk about here in Western Canada, in Calgary, in the circles in which we move, about how Mr. Poilier will now have to face a leadership review.
00:01:51.800Does he have the support to stay as leader?
00:01:55.740Yes, much more so, historically so, I would say. If you look at the last two leaders and Aaron O'Toole and Andrew Scheer, people might remember they had to go to many ballots to win their leadership race. I mean, they just barely won the leadership race.
00:02:10.280They then, you know, maybe more members fell in behind them and supported them as they went on. But when they lost, they really had to confront some members who were already displeased with them and just were not predisposed to be big fans.
00:02:23.320Pahliev is sort of in the opposite situation. He has a strong hold on the membership. They're all
00:02:29.860naturally big fans of his. There will be people who will certainly be disappointed with the results.
00:02:34.820But I think that there's quite a bit of unanimity, both in the membership and in the party caucus,
00:02:40.900in the parliamentary caucus, that he is just the best chance we have at winning the next election.
00:02:45.720And that he grew the coalition, he increased the vote share, he increased the seat count.
00:02:51.040And so, you know, the wrinkle of him having lost his own seat is unhelpful, certainly.
00:02:56.640It allows for a media narrative that's a bit more negative.
00:02:59.340But I don't think that will ultimately be something that undermines him with the membership,
00:03:03.540which feels actually, I think, quite energized and excited about getting to the next election.
00:03:10.280Certainly, when you see some of those vast rallies that he assembled,
00:03:14.140it's hard to imagine how that level of support could just melt away in a moment.
00:03:18.820uh jenny where when is the uh leadership review as i understand it there is one uh scheduled uh
00:03:27.320at a convention in the fall i think it's september um and i think if i were probably
00:03:32.260i would really welcome that you know i would sort of say um you know we shouldn't try to delay this
00:03:37.200we've got a mandated process in our constitution the members should always have their say and i
00:03:41.940really look forward to a leadership review because i'm just confident i'm going to i'm going to do
00:03:46.320well and i'm going to give a strong endorsement from the membership um i think that that presents
00:03:50.620a kind of a confidence um and uh and the comfort that that the members will support him um and it
00:03:56.840gives him some time to kind of speak to caucus speak to canadians um maybe maybe you know talk
00:04:03.260about what was successful and maybe potentially talk about areas for improvement and there and
00:04:07.260ways that we can maybe do better next time do you think do you think he can get a seat between now
00:04:12.900and then? I don't know that he could get a seat between now and then, in part because the prime
00:04:19.280minister gets to control the timing of the by-election. And if I were the prime minister,
00:04:23.980I would say, you know, what would Pierre Polyev do for me if I was trying to get a seat in that
00:04:27.740house of commons? And I don't, I think he would be right in suggesting that Polyev would not give0.98
00:04:31.400him any grace. And so I don't expect, and I think Polyev should plan that the liberal to the prime
00:04:37.000minister will make the timing as difficult for him as possible. And I believe they don't have
00:04:42.180have a by-election until six months after a vacancy so um so there they could drag that out i think
00:04:48.100it's fine um because polyev can appoint someone to lead question period in the house of commons
00:04:54.660uh he can still talk to media in ottawa the way he would after question period working the leader in
00:04:59.540the house of commons and he can tour canada he can meet with numbers he can meet with canadians
00:05:04.340he can host rallies he can do everything else he would do as a leader he could post social media
00:05:07.860videos etc okay well that's uh any ideas who might volunteer to take one for the team
00:05:15.620i don't know there have been some rumblings about alberta uh you know he has quite a deep
00:05:19.860connection to calgary having grown up uh in the city uh and calgary also has the benefit of being
00:05:25.780a safer um environment in the city for for conservatives there are parts of calgary as
00:05:30.100you know that are very safe territory for conservatives um someone will have to give
00:05:34.660up a seat uh you know they it'll have to be done voluntarily he's not going to make someone do it
00:05:39.460uh i think someone would have to come forward and think it makes sense you know maybe maybe there
00:05:43.700are some mps who were giving it one last shot thinking i'll get i'll get to be part of a
00:05:48.260governing caucus who are now a little bit disappointed and ready to move on um i don't
00:05:52.500know i don't know i'm sure these conversations are happening behind the scenes um my hope for
00:05:56.900him is that he gets a strong conservative seat so that he can have the support there build some
00:06:01.940relationships there do some constituency work but mainly focus on trying to lead the conservatives
00:06:06.260across the whole country jenny before we examine the entrails of the campaign itself a lot of you
00:06:13.380you're right that he has a very large following here in calorie can you just tell people who are
00:06:18.900concerned about him personally how he's doing and he and anna they have to move out of stornoway i
00:06:23.460guess so there's lots of things happening all at once i think they will have to look we're only
00:06:28.020three days from the election um and this is a guy who goes non-stop um i don't know if you i think
00:06:36.100you know him a little bit and you know he's almost he's a borderline workaholic and for those who saw
00:06:41.780some of the video footage from the last rally he had at home in ottawa before election day uh they
00:06:48.500looked they looked exhausted and almost emotional um and who can blame them uh you know i would be
00:06:54.100too. And so I think they're trying to get some rest. But he's still working, you know, I think
00:06:59.300he's basically spending all day on the phone with supporters, with members of caucus, trying to talk
00:07:04.460about trying to gather insights on how people felt the election went. I think he's meeting with his
00:07:09.240advisors, he's giving a lot of thought to all of this. And as I understand it, caucus is likely to
00:07:15.340meet next week in Ottawa, there's there's orientation for new members of Parliament, so that's a natural
00:07:20.200time to do it. And I imagine the public will be hearing a bit more from Pollyov around that time
00:07:24.920as well. I wouldn't be surprised if he sort of speaks to the plans nearly up to the next election.
00:07:31.320Maybe there'll be some sort of review that's undertaken to look at ways the party can do even
00:07:35.760better. I think he does need to do that, by the way. I think he needs to sort of take some
00:07:40.120accountability for not having won. He should dwell on the successes, certainly, but he should
00:07:44.900also take some accountability for not having won and maybe gesture at some openness to change.
00:07:50.760and to evolution. Knowing him, even though he probably needs a lot of rest, I actually imagine
00:07:57.400he's not taking much because he cannot sit still for very long.
00:08:01.160Yes. Well, look, that actually segues into where I wanted to take you next, and that is
00:08:07.800what went wrong. I know Trump appeared on the scene, but Trump will all be over in months as
00:08:13.880far as things will get resolved one way or the other. Once they're resolved, then we're back to
00:08:19.560dealing with the same things, young people who can't afford homes, haven't got jobs, older people0.95
00:08:25.480fighting with inflation, all the same problems that we went in. So there were some people who
00:08:31.560thought that he should have become a militant anti-Trumper. He didn't. He said what he needed
00:08:37.800to say, I think, but he focused on those same issues that were there before and that will be
00:08:43.560there again. I didn't think he made a mistake, but you're saying there are elements where he
00:08:49.720needs to take accountability. So what are they? Yeah, I agree with your assessment, by the way.
00:08:55.720I think it's very simplistic and not good analysis to say, well, he should have talked about Trump
00:09:01.160every day, or he should have been very hardline about Trump and talked about him every day.
00:09:05.080I think had he done that, he would have accepted that as the ballot question,
00:09:10.120And voters would have chosen Mark Carney as their preference for that question.
00:09:16.100Instead, he sort of, he addressed the Trump issue.
00:09:21.180He presented his plan, but he spent more time talking about cost of living and crime,
00:09:26.320two major areas of contrast where he and Carney are different
00:09:29.060and where voters were, I think, much more motivated to vote for him
00:09:32.200if they felt like he was right on those issues.
00:09:34.200I think that was like basically the way to go.
00:09:36.440And I would say, I think strategically, the campaign was almost right on the money.
00:09:40.120I think it was very well done. The areas for improvement that I see are on the sort of tactical operational side of things. For instance, you know, thousands and thousands of Canadians showed up to these rallies. And these were not people who'd been Conservative Party members before, maybe not even Conservative voters before, maybe not even voters at all before.
00:09:59.700And they had a real emotional connection to Polyev, a real connection to the issues, people who showed up at rallies and also people who engaged with his social media content.
00:10:09.660I'd like to see more thought go into over the long term.
00:10:13.480How do you convert those people into activists and volunteers?
00:10:16.640How do you get them to join their writing association?
00:10:18.460How do you get them to show up on E-Day and poll vote like we all do, those of us who have been activists for years?
00:10:24.620How do we how do we how do we get them to get their friends to show up?
00:10:27.560How do we basically convert those rally goers and voters and, you know, give them credit?
00:10:33.200They didn't just show up rallies. They definitely voted. But how do we get them to volunteer?
00:10:37.460How do we get their manpower on Election Day? How do we nominate candidates sooner so that we can have more candidates identifying more vote at the doors and then getting out the vote on Election Day?
00:10:51.220These are problems, I should say, that plague all political parties.
00:10:54.000political parties just in 2025, they just can't get enough volunteers, they can't get enough
00:10:58.060activists. But I think we have an opportunity that the other parties don't, and that we have this
00:11:02.800movement that Polyev has built. So converting that movement into a machine, a political machine,
00:11:09.320I think is like the biggest area for growth and opportunity.
00:11:14.080Right. Given that the NDP collapsed almost entirely, is there actually anything
00:12:22.460I also think it's a good reason why we shouldn't hang our future hopes on some hope that the NDP will do better, because we want to keep those voters.
00:12:31.220And so we really have to think about how do we go from 42% to 46%, 47% in a potentially almost a two-party system.
00:19:35.400If I can ask you to do something really hard, and that is to imagine that you were advising the liberal prime minister, would you perhaps suggest he recruit a few people from the opposition?
00:19:53.040As a consultant, I often have to put myself in the shoes of my opponents in my private life.
00:20:00.700What I would advise is, I would say to Mark Kearney, look, you actually have three dance partners. You have NDP MPs, you have the Bloc, and you even have Conservatives. And were I him, I think I would try to approach a parliamentary agenda by having smaller bills, not these big omnibus trying to jam everything into a fall economic statement or a big budget. Obviously, you have to do those things as well.
00:20:27.320But I would go on a case by case basis and say, who is the best dance partner for me on this legislation to advance what I want to advance? And surely he'll find it. I think on a lot of his progressive climate agenda, etc., yes, he will go to the NDP. But he may have a major project piece of legislation he wants to bring forward.
00:20:48.320the Conservatives may feel pressure to support if they want to see major projects built.
00:20:52.300He may have an approach to dealing with Trump that the Conservatives may feel pressure to support.
00:20:58.780He may have other policies that the Bloc could get behind if he can't get the NDP to support him.
00:21:05.120And the NDP, look, more often than not, I think the NDP are going to fall in with the Liberals.
00:21:08.660But I think that if I were him, that is how I would resist being just drawn into this dynamic
00:21:13.400where I have to move to the West, left on every issue. Now, will he do that? I'm not so
00:21:18.280sure. I think there are a lot of people out there who think Mark Carney is this great business
00:21:22.860liberal, Paul Martin-esque, you know, blue liberal type. And I don't think that's true. I mean, this
00:21:27.180is a guy who wrote the book on, literally, the book on net zero, on like the radical climate
00:21:32.680agenda. He wears an expensive suit, but that is not making business liberal. So we will see if
00:21:38.540he takes my approach. I think more likely he will take a Trudeau-like approach of appealing to the
00:21:43.540NDP and running as though he has a de facto majority. And I don't even think he needs to have
00:21:47.700them switch parties to do that. I think they'll just vote with the Liberals.
00:21:51.960So what you're really recommending is the model that Stephen Harbour used in 2006.
00:21:56.800Exactly. Yep. I think that was wise of Harper at the time. And I think it would be wise for
00:22:00.560Carney to do it now. I'm not sure he will. Well, fascinating insights. We're almost out of time.
00:22:07.460And I want to thank you, Jenny, for coming on the show. Any last words?
00:22:13.340No, all I will say is actually, I feel a lot of optimism as a conservative. Obviously,
00:22:17.160I wanted to win the federal election. There's no question that's disappointing. But this new
00:22:21.260coalition of voters is young and energetic and different from anything we've seen. And I think
00:22:26.980it is more durable and easier to grow than the Liberal Coalition, which I think has hit its
00:22:31.580ceiling. And so I hope some of your views will take some hope in that message.
00:22:36.700Well, I have one last question from which they might derive. Do you think we'll be
00:22:40.440going to the polls again within 12 months?
00:22:43.300Unfortunately, I don't have a hopeful answer to that question.
00:22:45.960I think because the NDP is so not functioning like a proper political party right now,
00:22:53.040they're broke, they have no future, they don't have a leader.
00:22:59.700I think for all those reasons, it'll be easy for the Liberals to pass legislation.
00:23:03.240I don't think anyone apart from the Conservatives is going to want an election in the next couple of years.