Western Standard - Ottawa blinks as Smith forces historic energy retreat

00:00:00.000 Good evening, Western Standard viewers, and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show

00:00:21.660 of the Western Standard.

00:00:23.520 It is Thursday, November the 27th,

00:00:26.540 and we have just had a remarkable meeting of opposites

00:00:31.880 take place here in Calvary today,

00:00:34.720 and they've come out looking as though

00:00:37.340 they're not opposites at all.

00:00:38.820 They're on the same side.

00:00:40.360 Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney

00:00:43.120 met today to sign a memorandum of agreement on what?

00:00:47.460 On expanding Alberta oil production

00:00:50.540 and pushing product to the far east it's a complicated subject some people say it'll never

00:00:58.760 happen some people say it should never happen and one person was there from the western standard

00:01:07.340 to record the whole thing that is david winnick our energy reporter welcome to the show david

00:01:14.240 thanks for having me nigel appreciate it it's a pleasure first of all before we do anything else

00:01:19.080 a very fine bit of reporting on short notice i i anytime there's a special briefing session you

00:01:25.280 know that there's a lot of detail and so often the things that you really care about are in

00:01:32.460 the details oh definitely so after you had written it up and you threw your pen down

00:01:38.040 what did you think did we do a good thing here today oh i think i'm kind of i say it's a mixed

00:01:45.040 bag to be honest with you, Nigel. A lot of what we saw today was kind of just what we'd already

00:01:50.120 heard might actually happen. I know there was a bunch of sources from the Globe and Mail that said

00:01:53.520 that there was going to possibly be something with carbon capture. They were going to talk

00:01:57.400 about maybe the tanker ban. And we saw a bit of that today. I mean, probably the main takeaways

00:02:02.000 is that the clean electrical regulations are going to be repelled immediately for Alberta.

00:02:07.860 There's not going to be an emissions cap, which is a bonus. And apparently there's going to be

00:02:12.560 indigenous co-ownership of the pipeline going forward, but they haven't said which indigenous

00:02:16.600 groups it's going to be at. It's a good possibility, I would wager, probably coastal First Nations

00:02:20.500 are going to be involved. But again, there hasn't been any names. And as for a proponent for the

00:02:24.800 pipeline going forward, we're still waiting to see if anyone from the private sector is going to

00:02:28.140 sort of step up to the plate. Well, let's talk a little bit more about the carbon capture.

00:02:35.040 In the last couple of months here at the Western Standard, we've run a couple of articles talking

00:02:39.960 about the grand cost of the grand bargain.

00:02:45.620 And the bargain was always that, yes,

00:02:47.980 the federal government would facilitate a pipeline to the coast,

00:02:53.120 but they would have to carry what they called at first decarbonized oil.

00:02:58.220 And I noticed they're not calling it that anymore. 0.50

00:03:01.200 It sounded a bit ridiculous.

00:03:03.360 But at any rate, the point was that in order for the oil to be acceptable,

00:03:07.700 They were going to have to bury, pump down through the strata to a deep well, all the carbon dioxide that it took to produce that oil, or an equivalent amount.

00:03:22.220 It does absolutely nothing for anybody, and yet that was the deal.

00:03:27.200 So, question.

00:03:29.760 It's very expensive.

00:03:30.720 I hear numbers like $16 billion for the Pathways Alliance project to actually go ahead.

00:03:38.920 We know it works.

00:03:39.720 It's been working in Weyburn.

00:03:40.840 You can do this.

00:03:41.680 This is not science fiction, but it's the economics of it.

00:03:45.760 And I think $16 billion was mentioned in the press release this morning.

00:03:51.400 16.5, yeah.

00:03:52.420 16.5.

00:03:53.960 Well, there you are.

00:03:55.200 Who pays for that? 1.00

00:03:57.280 Well, realistically, they're talking about the Pathways Alliance companies, but there's, again, no set actual person.

00:04:03.960 But they say the government's going to probably pay for it, which means you and me, the taxpayer, because, again, there's no private proponent yet, as far as we know of.

00:04:12.160 Well, even a private proponent is going to face this issue.

00:04:17.760 Where is the market for decarbonized oil?

00:04:21.220 I mean, Canada, apparently, at least in Western Canada, not in Eastern Canada, but in Western Canada, it's very important that we have the oil that is clean.

00:04:33.560 Well, we also have the most ethical.

00:04:35.460 The ethical, right.

00:04:37.360 Well, are there countries elsewhere in the world where they're saying, you know, if only we could get ethical oil, that's what we would buy.

00:04:46.320 And, you know, we'd be prepared to pay more for it.

00:04:49.200 You know, name three.

00:04:50.460 I can't think of a single one, to be honest with you, Nigel, because realistically speaking, when's economics ever actually cared about ethics?

00:04:56.060 If someone could find a cheaper alternative or option, they always go for it.

00:04:59.340 That's why there's talk now about the Americans possibly having a regime change or bring about a regime change in Venezuela to have maybe a cheaper source of heavy crude oil going forward.

00:05:07.840 So instead of maybe like Albertan oil going down to the Gulf Coast refineries, they might get some now from Venezuela and possibly shut us up.

00:05:13.960 But again, that's depending on whether or not what happens in Venezuela in the next couple of days.

00:05:17.520 But back to your question in terms of decarbonized oil, there's not too many people that are, there's not really a big global demand for it per se right now.

00:05:25.160 The Asian markets are just looking for whatever they can get, especially China and Japan. 0.53

00:05:28.840 And so if there is any time for it, there isn't really, no.

00:05:31.180 So I think it's just basically just kind of the green agenda, green climate agenda again from the feds.

00:05:35.680 And there's really no substance to it.

00:05:37.040 And there's really no customers for it going forward as far as I can tell.

00:05:39.540 Are any other countries even interested anymore in the green agenda?

00:05:47.380 We've just come off COP30 in Brazil, a conference of the parties,

00:05:51.620 and it's all about saving the world and cutting the carbon dioxide,

00:05:57.040 but I don't see any of that being reenacted in the home runs.

00:06:00.940 Well, there isn't because some of the biggest proponents were the European Union.

00:06:04.380 I remember Germany, Finland, Sweden, they're all going away from that.

00:06:07.480 Now, I remember Germany was trying to go clean energy quite a few years ago, and that didn't work, so they started going back to coal plants and whatnot.

00:06:13.340 So I don't really think there is going forward.

00:06:15.460 No, Nigel.

00:06:16.260 No.

00:06:17.000 Okay, so we're still going to do it.

00:06:18.960 So we're going to end up with this.

00:06:20.960 I'm not an energy economist, and I, therefore, am not going to be bold enough to say how much more it's going to add to the cost of a barrel of oil to pump this carbon underground.

00:06:35.080 but it's going to be more so it's going to be uncompetitive now presently we don't have a

00:06:41.860 pipeline proponent strictly speaking the prep the person who owns the pipeline is not the one who's

00:06:48.640 going to be paying this anyway but i have a feeling that the demand might not be that great

00:06:55.260 in which case where is the pipeline proponent coming from have you any is any idea about people

00:07:03.300 waiting in the wings well that's the thing we haven't really heard any rumors about it i mean

00:07:08.140 they've well i can't even actually say there is any rumors because i haven't heard anything from

00:07:12.300 any sources saying that there's empty discussions there's been no pipeline companies any major

00:07:16.820 companies in canada and quite frankly why would there be at this time because look what happened

00:07:20.400 with trans mountain prices kept going up and up and up and yesterday at um the uh insura did their

00:07:25.200 state of industry lunch there was a bunch of oil and gas industry experts there and they were

00:07:29.560 basically saying no company has a blank check at the moment just to throw money into this pipeline

00:07:33.660 unless they have actual assurances going for it because they don't really know what regulations

00:07:37.780 they talked about the tanker ban getting repealed that's not going to happen apparently according

00:07:41.600 to today there's going to be some modifications which we have no idea what those will be at

00:07:45.500 carney didn't really specify now that danielle smith so we don't exactly know see that's one 0.99

00:07:49.960 of the things about this whole days of speeches and press releases but you use words like

00:07:56.660 modifications and we spring to the conclusion well obviously you know i mean stands the reason the

00:08:03.700 modification must be that you're going to let tankers come in perhaps to a certain part of the

00:08:09.220 coast where the refinery is or where they where the uh the end of the pipeline is but nobody said

00:08:17.700 that we just assume that no there's no actual route set either because this morning in a briefing

00:08:22.820 some senior government officials said that they were still working on what the route was even

00:08:26.340 even going to be from alberta to the coast so they don't even have that planned out yet they're still

00:08:30.000 working on that and according to them as well i believe that there is going to be a date a deadline

00:08:35.580 of april 1st or no july 1st sorry next year that they have to have the pipeline application sent

00:08:41.500 into the major projects office so we have no idea what will happen if they fail to meet that deadline

00:08:46.840 because again nothing's set in stone yet so it's just all still up in the air really well that that

00:08:52.700 But that makes you stop to ask why are we doing this?

00:08:58.860 Why is Mr. Carney doing it?

00:09:01.740 It's very easy for us to be so focused on Alberta and to question the reasoning of the

00:09:08.740 provincial government, of the oil companies who are based here who have been noisily supportive

00:09:17.620 but not actually committing to anything

00:09:21.340 because there's nothing to commit to, really, at the moment.

00:09:25.120 What's Mr. Carney getting out of this?

00:09:28.360 Oh, that's a good question.

00:09:30.500 Free publicity, I guess, that he really needs any.

00:09:33.100 What was it that the conservative leader, Pierre Paulyev,

00:09:36.800 said in the House today?

00:09:38.500 Oh, he basically just said that it was just another PR,

00:09:40.660 basically just PR sort of stunt from the liberals

00:09:42.920 to basically look like they're doing something

00:09:44.100 when they're not really doing anything.

00:09:45.280 And I would happen to agree with that because, like I said,

00:09:47.620 If you're going to have this sort of actual set agreement, well, there has to be a set route.

00:09:51.460 Don't have that.

00:09:52.500 They say it has to be privately owned.

00:09:54.160 We don't have a company that's even come forward or even said they'd be willing to talk about this.

00:09:57.780 So realistically, I don't know what you could say offhand that Carney's getting at this,

00:10:01.600 except maybe to get Alberta off his back and Daniel Smith off his back.

00:10:04.740 Because for the last, how many months has it been now?

00:10:07.420 Three months, four months, they've talked about this memorandum of understanding,

00:10:10.120 and we're going to get it done.

00:10:11.260 And originally it was going to be for Grey Cup weekend.

00:10:13.140 That got pushed back, and now we finally have something.

00:10:15.580 But it's, well, realistically, it's a bit much ado about nothing, a lot of it, because there's no real set things in stone and concrete, really, for the most part, except the fact that there's going to be all the clean electricity regulations are getting taken off, no emissions cap, but that's about it.

00:10:30.060 In terms of actual pipeline, don't totally know.

00:10:32.360 Well, okay. So Mr. Carney wants, as you put it, to get Daniel Smith off his back. I can see why that would be a win for him to go back and say, well, we have this memorandum of understanding.

00:10:50.000 It's only a memorandum of understanding, folks.

00:10:54.080 Everybody relax.

00:10:55.140 B.C., Quebec, both of whom have expressed a strong antipathy

00:11:01.720 to what's going on here in Calgary today.

00:11:06.400 Question, though, is there something else that Danielle Speth could have 0.89

00:11:12.140 or should have done?

00:11:14.940 I don't really think you can say that there's probably anything

00:11:18.420 she could have done because she herself said in her conference today that this agreement addresses

00:11:23.220 seven of the nine bad laws that she's been criticizing heavily from the Carney administration,

00:11:28.040 which goes back to Trudeau's administration as well. I don't really know what you could say that

00:11:33.040 she could have done because, I mean, realistically, she got them to agree that, yes, we are

00:11:38.460 understanding that you want a pipeline. Yes, we know it wants to go to BC. Now they're going to

00:11:42.300 start talking to Evie. That's been confirmed. He said that he talked to them earlier today and

00:11:46.440 yesterday, her and Kearney, the possibility of anything else really at this stage, I mean,

00:11:51.940 apart from just coming out and saying that there is indeed private sector commitment

00:11:55.620 from a specific company, I don't really know what else she could have done now for the

00:11:58.840 most part.

00:12:00.260 Well, I mean, what if she had done nothing at all?

00:12:02.180 Mr. Kearney remains very against energy development in Alberta.

00:12:11.600 uh anything that he promises is conditional and so we don't take it seriously we still have our

00:12:19.940 nine demands but i don't do you think she could have done that there's that possibility but i was

00:12:26.380 just thinking as well that maybe her even just getting carny to the table to sign on something

00:12:30.700 might actually get somebody to step up now because they've after as i said months of them talking and

00:12:35.980 nothing happening maybe now that they've actually put pen to paper maybe now they'll have actual

00:12:40.040 companies come out and say hmm okay maybe we'll start talking to them maybe they'll start reaching

00:12:43.800 out so there is maybe that it's maybe just a show of good faith maybe going forward for people to

00:12:49.040 maybe come in that might want to actually invest with alberta so the um so the deal would be that

00:12:55.940 they don't have to worry about the cost of pumping carbon dioxide underground so although the oil

00:13:02.960 might actually be more expensive to produce they can still sell it at the world price is that the

00:13:07.820 deal? Possibly. I guess we'll just

00:13:09.820 have to see going forward.

00:13:12.500 Now, I noticed that

00:13:14.020 Quebec has 0.62

00:13:15.720 come out very strongly against it.

00:13:18.740 Quebec, it's back

00:13:19.740 there. Why would they care?

00:13:22.620 Oh, well,

00:13:23.920 I guess because they've been

00:13:25.800 constantly against pipelines for years,

00:13:27.600 with us obviously going forward.

00:13:30.200 I think it was today,

00:13:32.080 oh God, what was his name? The minister.

00:13:33.600 He was saying that, I think originally in the past,

00:13:35.560 Alberta's pipeline and Alberta's oil sands were

00:13:37.520 basically poisoning the world if i remember correctly i think that was about like a month

00:13:40.960 or so ago he came out and said that oh they've been saying that for you oh yeah no i don't i

00:13:45.360 think i don't really know where to begin with them because honestly at this stage it just seems like

00:13:51.440 it doesn't affect them in the least i just feel like maybe they have some projects in the works

00:13:55.640 that they want pushed forward that this might take away maybe sort of um carney's um what's

00:14:02.140 the word i'm going to be looking for here maybe have carney actually like look towards their

00:14:05.820 direction if that makes any sort of sense but i really don't know what that would be for the time

00:14:09.900 and if they have anything in the woodwork in terms of new pipelines or anything going to the east

00:14:13.340 coast because energy east is totally dead so i don't really know what that would be nigel i 0.60

00:14:17.740 well i wonder if that's uh if they're just taking the point of view that look bc evidently doesn't

00:14:25.020 want this no point okay so if mr carney uses the federal prerogative which he is legally entitled

00:14:32.780 to do and forces this across B.C., well, then maybe he would do the same thing in Quebec.

00:14:41.880 That's a good possibility.

00:14:42.980 Mais non, c'est impossible.

00:14:45.400 No, sure no.

00:14:46.520 So I guess they're thinking that if they let this, take this lying down, if they don't

00:14:51.740 stake out a position, they might be next.

00:14:53.860 Well, there's that possibility too, and there's the possibility that David Evey could as well

00:14:57.760 use a constitutional veto against any project.

00:14:59.780 Like, that was kind of floated about today, but there is no, like, really set thing on whether or not that's possible yet.

00:15:05.300 That was just kind of floated by certain sources and whatnot today.

00:15:08.100 So what the constitutional veto...

00:15:10.860 Well, that's what I was trying to figure out as well, exactly, because they were just saying,

00:15:13.760 you know, let's get a bag of them here in Alberta if they're available.

00:15:18.680 Oh, exactly.

00:15:20.300 I think they were just putting that out to see what your reaction would be, but who knows?

00:15:24.260 I have a feeling that we've had this discussion within the last three months.

00:15:29.780 It is not the first time, of course, that Mr. Phoebe has declared his opposition to a pipeline, and at the time, I think, the new energy minister, Hudson, said something along the lines of, well, you know, you guys in Alberta are just going to have to work it out with B.C.

00:15:47.820 we're not and yet when when there's something that the federal government wants to contradict

00:15:55.180 the constitution on that involves alberta they assert all kinds of powers that don't actually

00:16:00.860 exist and then the premier of alberta says well they're they're driving in our lane and we have

00:16:06.140 that discussion but when it's bc is that they is it the perhaps the slender majority with which he

00:16:15.020 He is working, and he's worried about the loyalty of those liberal MPs who are far too precious to burn fuel to make carbon dioxide and walk everywhere and take the train to Ottawa.

00:16:33.960 I don't know, I'm being a little facetious here, but there's something that makes Ottawa, more particularly, the Liberal government, slow to be forceful with British Columbia and Quebec, but quite ready to put the boots to Alberta.

00:16:53.760 I would definitely say that's the case, absolutely.

00:16:55.860 So what do you make of the fact that Mr. Ford, Premier of Ontario, has weighed in on Alberta's side, so this is great, we need to do this?

00:17:03.960 Well, I think he's basically just speaking for the vast majority of Canadians because there's been polls that have come out recently that say, I think it's just over 70% or more of Canadians are actually in favor of a pipeline to the West Coast because people basically just want a better economy.

00:17:18.760 What's that mean?

00:17:19.440 They want a new pipeline.

00:17:20.600 That means more jobs.

00:17:22.440 It means more revenue.

00:17:23.240 So why wouldn't he be?

00:17:24.620 Because I think that he's a businessman as well.

00:17:26.340 So is Daniel Smith.

00:17:27.120 I think they are all for business, and I don't really see at this stage of the game, with the economy just around the world and the geopolitical situation that's going on just in general around the globe,

00:17:35.640 white people wouldn't want more jobs and a better economy overall. 0.83

00:17:41.480 You're talking perfect sense.

00:17:43.520 I just wonder why that perfect sense is so hard to hear coming from the central government, from the federal government.

00:17:52.900 uh the the you know i i was very struck and i think i mentioned this in my column on the matter

00:18:00.160 this morning that uh mr carney wants to make canada an energy superpower said that many a time

00:18:07.480 and yet do energy super do you make an energy superpower by sticking the taxpayers with the

00:18:16.940 cost no and furthermore in what sense is canada not an energy superpower already 97 i checking

00:18:27.100 the numbers this morning 97 of the oil produced in canada comes out of alberta wells yeah or out

00:18:33.580 of the oil sands all right we are apparently the fourth largest producer of oil in the world

00:18:41.660 Now, I don't know whether that's enough to make us a superpower, but it's certainly a power.

00:18:48.160 And yet, somehow or other, because we have this ridiculous commitment to doing it all without generating carbon dioxide, we're holding ourselves back.

00:19:01.060 Lift the lid, and we could increase oil production by 50% by 2030, I'm told.

00:19:07.000 Yeah.

00:19:07.320 What is it, 4 billion barrels a day at the moment?

00:19:09.480 Yeah, yeah.

00:19:10.140 Okay, and $6 billion is possible?

00:19:12.620 That is possible, yeah.

00:19:14.760 That would be well on the way to an energy superpower.

00:19:18.500 You would think so.

00:19:19.160 You would think so, wouldn't you?

00:19:20.340 And yet somehow it's got to be done with, you know,

00:19:24.240 one hand and four more fingers tied behind your back.

00:19:28.440 That's about it, really.

00:19:30.260 It's a funny old world we live in, David.

00:19:33.280 What happens next?

00:19:35.580 What happens next?

00:19:36.700 Well, that's a million-dollar question, I guess.

00:19:39.140 So it's going past the convention tomorrow.

00:19:42.000 Going past the convention.

00:19:42.760 Well, that's actually going to be very interesting

00:19:43.920 because that's basically going to be the talk of the town

00:19:45.580 up in Edmonton for the next weekend.

00:19:47.740 But yeah, no, basically.

00:19:48.960 Well, just the talk of the town,

00:19:50.600 what would you anticipate being the reaction

00:19:53.380 of the party membership to this?

00:19:55.360 Oh, I think it's going to be split down the middle

00:19:57.000 because I think it's going to basically be

00:19:58.360 the people that are loyal to Smith will say that,

00:20:00.820 yeah, we're finally making progress

00:20:02.100 because as she's even said herself,

00:20:03.720 Trudeau would have never signed on to this.

00:20:05.540 So Carney's at least actually open to talking about this.

00:20:08.480 So there is them that will probably back her.

00:20:11.020 But I do know that a lot of the people from the Alberta independence movement, like the Alberta Prosperity Project and that, they think this whole thing is basically just a waste of time and this isn't going to change anything.

00:20:20.800 And I know that a bunch of them are going to be there on the weekend, so we might have a little butting heads and whatnot, I think, in Edmonton between those two groups going forward over what happened at the Memorandum of Understanding today.

00:20:30.280 David, you're going to be there, aren't you?

00:20:31.700 Oh, it should be fun.

00:20:32.820 Yeah.

00:20:33.220 So you'll be reporting live from the floor, I'm sure.

00:20:37.060 Yeah, that's the plan.

00:20:38.480 You'll be looking out for who says what.

00:20:41.700 I suppose we will.

00:20:42.740 I have, I can never keep up with some of these psychological terms.

00:20:46.960 How many stages of grief are there?

00:20:50.100 Oh, five or six.

00:20:51.140 Five or six.

00:20:52.880 Production says five.

00:20:54.240 I'm going to go with five.

00:20:56.240 How long did it take you to go through all five stages of grief

00:21:01.040 when you heard that Minister Gilboa had resigned from cabinet?

00:21:08.480 I don't know if they even re-staved one, to be honest.

00:21:12.360 What are these days of joy are there, Nigel?

00:21:14.040 I guess it's back to climbing the CN Tower.

00:21:17.220 He's done what he can, and now he's...

00:21:19.820 One more...

00:21:21.060 Actually, it's interesting to see how the Trudeau-era cabinet

00:21:24.020 is basically being one by one.

00:21:26.680 They're being recycled out, and we won't be able to use that line

00:21:32.720 about, oh, this is just Trudeau's people with a new leader.

00:21:35.320 He's actually, we've got rid of, well, Gilbo, Melanie Jolie is apparently on the way out.

00:21:45.020 Freeland's gone?

00:21:46.000 Yep.

00:21:46.700 So, you know, it's a new team.

00:21:49.720 Perhaps there'll be a new approach.

00:21:52.560 I wouldn't put money on it.

00:21:54.320 I wouldn't.

00:21:54.780 There's always a glimmer of hope, isn't there?

00:21:56.080 But maybe there is a glimmer of hope, and I certainly hope for all our sakes that it turns into more than a glimmer.

00:22:02.480 Me too.

00:22:02.800 David, I really appreciate you coming on the show today.

00:22:05.040 thanks Nigel great work good luck with the convention tomorrow yeah all right it brings

00:22:10.160 yeah thanks very much thank you again appreciate it for the western standard i'm Nigel Hannaford

Western Standard - November 28, 2025

Ottawa blinks as Smith forces historic energy retreat

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