00:03:27.640The Alberta economy is once again booming. We are leading the entire country in virtually every economic category from job growth to investment to GDP to wages.
00:03:37.460The Energy Agreement, or MOU, signed with Ottawa last year, has eliminated both the destructive oil and gas production cap and the net zero power regulations.
00:03:46.640These two victories alone have had an immediate supercharging effect on our economy.
00:03:50.900In just the last few weeks, we have had tens of billions in new projects announced, including several new AI data centers, the expansion of TMX and other pipelines headed west and south, and a final investment decision by Dow Chemicals on their multi-billion dollar plastics facility.
00:04:07.000And that's just the start. In the coming year, we expect tens of billions in data center and power generation announcements, oil production facility expansions, and approval from the federal government for a million barrel a day pipeline to our West Coast bound for Asian markets.
00:04:22.560These investments will create a massive number of new jobs for Albertans and will prime the pump, so to speak, for more investments in all sectors of the economy, from agriculture to tech to tourism to aviation and everything in between.
00:04:36.120It's an exciting time for our province.
00:04:38.400However, we have a very serious growth and budget challenge that must be addressed.
00:04:42.440In the year I became premier, the price of oil averaged $90 a barrel U.S.
00:04:47.040These strong oil prices saw our budget enjoy royalty revenue of over $25 billion and a
00:04:54.060surplus of around $12 billion, which we used to build up the Heritage Fund and pay down
00:05:00.300Since that time, however, the price of oil has fallen by over $30 a barrel to around $60.
00:05:07.180Each $1 drop in the price of oil means roughly $750 million less in oil royalties for the province.
00:05:14.280The result? What had been a $12 billion surplus in 2023 at $90 oil has turned into a large budget deficit at $60 oil.
00:05:24.220This is not the first crash in oil prices our province has faced, nor will it be the last.
00:05:28.840What is unique about the current oil price crash versus others in the past is that our economy today is more diversified, resilient and still growing despite the drop in oil price.
00:05:40.020To put it bluntly, people across the country and around the world continue to want to move to our province in very large numbers to pursue job opportunities and prosperity.
00:05:48.820In the past, Canada's responsible immigration policies, such as those under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, constrained international immigration to manageable levels in Alberta.
00:05:58.840so that our province could keep up with the growth of our economy and population.
00:06:03.200It also ensured that new immigrants primarily arrived here with highly valuable skills,
00:06:08.160a good job, and started contributing income taxes the moment they arrived.
00:06:12.980That is the story of the vast majority of our amazing new Canadians
00:06:16.560who arrived here during that time and are now citizens.
00:06:20.320These Albertans were and are a huge strength to our economy and provincial culture.
00:06:26.480And then came Justin Trudeau's disastrous open-border immigration policies, which have caused an unprecedented strain on our health care, education, and other social programs.
00:06:35.500In just the last five years of Trudeau's tenure, Alberta grew by almost 600,000 people to more than 5 million, all while Ottawa throttled our most important job-creating industries and prioritized immigration away from economic migrants, and instead focused on international students, temporary workers, and asylum seekers.
00:06:55.680Adding 600,000 people in five years is like adding half the city of Calgary or Edmonton in five years.
00:07:03.160Although sustainable immigration has always been an important part of our provincial growth model,
00:07:08.300throwing the doors wide open to anyone and everyone across the globe has flooded our classrooms, emergency rooms, and social support systems with far too many people far too quickly.
00:07:18.200As just one example, our student population has skyrocketed by more than 80,000 students in just the last four years, and more than 140,000 students now having English as their additional language.
00:07:30.740Is it any wonder that our teachers and students are struggling so much with classroom complexity and crowding?
00:07:36.480To sum up our budget challenge, low oil prices combined with an out-of-control federal immigration policies are together driving unsustainable budget deficits, not just here, but across the country.
00:07:48.200That's the problem. So what's the solution?
00:07:51.520Today, I want to share with you a three-part strategy to address this budget challenge
00:07:55.380without resorting to deep and disruptive cuts to core social services.
00:07:59.240The long-term strategy was announced last year.
00:08:02.200Our government has already initiated an investment plan to build the Alberta Heritage Fund
00:08:54.400In addition to our long-term strategy,
00:08:56.620our government also has a medium-term strategy
00:08:58.700to double Alberta's oil and gas production and exports
00:09:01.660to more than 8 million barrels a day by 2035.
00:09:05.260Doing so will allow us to secure higher resource revenues for our budget
00:09:08.660even when energy prices are lower like they are today.
00:09:11.480And when energy prices bump back up, our province will see large surpluses, which will help us to reach the $250 billion by 2050 Heritage Fund target that I just outlined.
00:09:22.440That is why our government will continue to work diligently on implementing the energy agreement signed with Ottawa to build 1.3 million barrels per day of additional pipeline capacity to the West Coast,
00:09:33.940while also working with our great Canadian pipeline companies to expand pipeline capacity headed south.
00:09:39.380We will also continue to work on our agreement signed with Ontario to send hundreds of thousands of barrels of Alberta crude to their refineries and explore opportunities to unlock deepwater port access for our energy resources in the Maritimes, Quebec and the Hudson's Bay.
00:09:53.460Alberta will double our pipeline capacity over the next 10 years, and our oil producers will grow and fill that pipe.
00:09:59.500We will not permit Alberta's and Canada's most valuable resource deposit worth almost $10 trillion to remain in the ground to the detriment of millions of Canadians.
00:10:11.660Now, having a medium and long-term plan is very important.
00:10:14.740However, what are we going to do about our budget situation in the short term?
00:10:18.620After all, we can't just sit by waiting and hoping for world oil prices to recover, nor can we trust the federal government to manage our immigration system in the best interests of Albertans.
00:10:30.980First off, our government will not be implementing drastic cuts to social services.
00:10:35.900The approved wage increases for our doctors, nurses, and teachers will remain in place so we can continue to attract the skilled professionals needed to catch up with our growth.
00:10:44.520Albertans have learned from experience that during times of low oil prices, the key is to limit increases in spending and focus it on building the schools, health facilities, roads, and other infrastructure needed to build a strong and diversified economy with a world-class standard of living.
00:11:00.480So instead of drastic cuts in upcoming budgets, we will instead be cutting unnecessary bureaucracy, improving efficiencies in program delivery, and prioritizing needs before wants as much as possible.
00:11:11.060We will continue to limit overall government spending increases to below inflation and population growth, implement more income testing for social programs so they are more financially sustainable, and critically, we will address head-on the challenge of out-of-control immigration levels that are overwhelming our core social services.
00:11:29.860The changes we need to make to immigration are a significant departure from the status quo, and therefore, I am seeking a referendum mandate from Albertans to implement them.
00:11:38.680On October 19, 2026, we will hold a provincial referendum primarily focused on how Albertans want our government to deal with the issue of immigration, as well as steps we can take as a province to strengthen our constitutional and fiscal position within a united Canada.
00:11:54.320These were far and away the issues most strongly identified by Albertans during last year's Alberta Next panel town halls and online submissions.
00:12:03.160And in my view, it is time to act on them.
00:12:05.140The fact is Alberta taxpayers can no longer be asked to continue to subsidize the entire country through equalization and federal transfers, permit the federal government to flood our borders with new arrivals, and then give free access to our most generous in the country social programs to anyone who moves here.
00:12:21.200This is not only grossly unfair to Alberta taxpayers, but also financially crippling and undercuts the quality of our health care, education, and other social services.
00:12:30.220The October 19th referendum will therefore include the following questions.
00:12:34.040Number one, do you support the government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purpose of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration, and ensuring Albertans have first priority to new employment opportunities?
00:12:49.840Number two, do you support the government of Alberta introducing a law mandating only Canadian citizens, permanent residents, and individuals with an Alberta-approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially funded programs, such as health, education, and other social services?
00:13:07.840Number three, assuming that all citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs as they do now,
00:13:14.580do you support the government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status
00:13:21.900to be resident in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially funded social support programs?
00:13:29.540Number four, assuming that all citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now,
00:13:36.980Do you support the government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their families' use of the health care and education systems?
00:13:48.980Number five. Do you support the government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate, or citizenship card, to be eligible to vote in a provincial election?
00:14:02.160To strengthen Alberta's constitutional and fiscal position within the United Canada, we will also be asking you the following questions on the referendum ballot.
00:14:11.660Do you support the government of Alberta proactively working with other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution in the following ways?
00:14:18.600A. Have provincial governments and not the federal government select the justices appointed to provincial King's Bench and Appeals Courts?
00:14:27.060B. Abolish the unelected federal Senate.
00:14:29.860c. Allow provinces to opt out of federal programs intruding on provincial jurisdictions such as
00:14:36.700health, education, and social services without losing any of the associated federal funding
00:14:41.940for use in their own provincial social programs. d. Better protect provincial rights from federal
00:14:48.500interference by giving a province's laws dealing with provincial or shared constitutional areas of
00:14:54.040jurisdiction priority over federal laws when in conflict with one another. I look forward to the
00:15:00.060debate on these critically important ideas and to receive your decision on the questions outlined so
00:15:05.220that our government can get to work on implementing an immigration policy that puts the needs of
00:15:10.000Albertans first, as well as constitutional reforms needed to make Alberta stronger and
00:15:14.760more sovereign within a united Canada. In closing, I want you to know how confident I am in the
00:15:20.540judgment of Albertans on these and other delegate issues. Although there are some politicians and
00:15:25.280commentators that fear direct democracy, such as referendums, I do not. I trust the judgment
00:15:30.780of Albertans. I know that as a province, we will thoughtfully ponder, debate, and ultimately come
00:15:35.860to a wise decision on these questions that will benefit our families and our fellow Albertans
00:15:40.580for generations, just as we've always done. May our beautiful province forever remain strong and