Western Standard - Professor Tom Flanagan on the Alberta election

00:00:00.000 I appreciate you coming on to talk to us today. You know, we got this election going. It's going

00:00:05.140 to be clearly already a heated and an ugly one in a lot of ways. But what I kind of want to start

00:00:12.320 with is, you know, it's so close. It's neck and neck. Well, there's no conservative split for

00:00:18.800 the parties right now. It's not even a liberal party on the other side that you could say is

00:00:25.000 ostensibly centrist. It's NDP. Alberta is supposed to be the bastion of conservatism. What happened?

00:00:32.640 Well, the main thing that's happened over the long term is the collapse of the liberals and the

00:00:37.860 migration of their support to the NDP. The perception of Alberta as an overwhelmingly

00:00:45.780 conservative province was always a bit misleading. It was based on the vote splitting on the left.

00:00:53.660 If you went back and looked at the voting results for all the years that the conservatives were in

00:00:59.060 power, it was only a couple of times that they got more than 50% of the vote. Usually their vote was

00:01:06.340 strong, but not actually a majority. There was always a lot of voters that were looking for an

00:01:12.420 alternative to the conservatives. Well, now they have one. And so our politics now looks pretty much

00:01:17.460 like that of the other Western provinces in which you have on one side a conservative party with,

00:01:24.020 you know, in each province, it's a different name and a different history. And then on the left,

00:01:30.040 you have the NDP. And so we're very, our politics now is very much like that of British Columbia or

00:01:36.220 Saskatchewan or Manitoba. And so as I say, the perception that Alberta was different was a bit

00:01:44.840 misleading. It was based on the, on the split between the liberals and the NDP, which has disappeared.

00:01:51.500 Okay. So what can be done about it? I mean, we see the UCP, for example, though, is it definitely

00:01:57.360 trying to recapture, I guess, some of that center right or softer conservative vote. I mean,

00:02:02.920 it's a very high spending campaign they're going on so far. And they're certainly backing away

00:02:08.300 quite often or trying to avoid what would be considered old meat and potatoes, conservative

00:02:12.380 issues. Do you think they're going to be able to pull that vote back to them by the time the

00:02:17.280 election day comes? Well, they have to try. I mean, here's a situation for the UCP.

00:02:24.100 Four years ago, under Jason Kenney, they did win an overwhelming victory and they did get more than a

00:02:28.940 majority of popular votes. But then they had the internal splits within the party. Jason resigned

00:02:35.100 and new leader, Danielle Smith, who's got into power mainly on the strength of the, you might call

00:02:44.880 the further right elements of the party, sort of a populist rural version of conservatism. These were

00:02:51.560 her main supporters. So now to hope to win the election, they have to soften that image and

00:03:00.120 perceive more to, well, what in political science we call the median voter people who are kind of in

00:03:07.360 the center of the distribution. There simply is not enough support for the populist right,

00:03:13.720 even in Alberta to win the election. They, they could win control of the UCP. But to win a general

00:03:23.800 election, they are going to have to appeal more to the median voters. So that's what Danielle has been 1.00

00:03:29.000 attempting to do. She has downplayed some of the, the edgier positions that she took, like her sovereignty 1.00

00:03:36.680 act as was watered down. And she's opening up the purse strings, funding new arena in Calgary,

00:03:46.520 promises for improvement of the healthcare system, all the stuff costs money. And it's designed to

00:03:52.200 appeal to the median voter who could be swayed to vote in either direction. They're not firm supporters

00:03:59.400 of the UCP. So they have to have inducement. So anyway, that's the strategy behind what she's doing. 0.99

00:04:04.920 And it's a tried and true strategy of campaigning in Canada, as in other countries. And sometimes it

00:04:12.040 works, and sometimes it doesn't. But what, what she's doing is, is pretty standard.

00:04:19.080 Yeah, so I mean, I guess some of the element of fear of the unknown with the NDP is gone as well.

00:04:24.760 I mean, Alberta had never had an NDP government, it was always assumed it would be far, far left if

00:04:28.840 they ever got their hands on things. And I, you know, they certainly were a left wing party when they

00:04:34.200 were governing for four years, but they weren't as extreme as some might have feared they'd be.

00:04:38.840 So it's not, people won't feel it's the end of the world if they got in again. So that's where they

00:04:43.480 become, I guess, more into consideration for a common voter than they used to be

00:04:46.600 10 years ago when they were kind of a mystery.

00:04:48.360 Yeah, well, you know, elections are largely determined by fear and loathing, as great

00:04:57.400 journalists put it. I think the UCP should actually be doing more to stoke that.

00:05:05.640 I think their best line of attack against Rachel Notley would be, and they are doing this to some

00:05:10.840 extent, and I think they probably need to do more of it, to highlight her association with Justin Trudeau.

00:05:19.640 And you could even throw in the leader of the federal NDP for, you know, for keeps, for a bonus,

00:05:27.400 you know, put the picture of the three of them together, maybe have to manufacture the picture,

00:05:32.520 and say, are these the people you want running Alberta? Because Trudeau is very unpopular here,

00:05:38.920 and the federal Tories have no trouble sweeping the province. So, you know, I would say you want to

00:05:46.120 associate Rachel Notley in the popular mind with Justin Trudeau, and point to episodes in the past

00:05:53.320 where the two of them were on the same page. For their part, what the NDP is doing, I think this

00:06:01.240 is a very effective attack ad. I've seen it now on big posters, and it's actually quite unusual in Alberta to

00:06:07.240 have a big street poster with an attack ad on it. It's a picture of Danielle, and it just says,

00:06:13.560 what will she do next? And that plays to her history of a very colorful political history of having been in

00:06:21.320 different situations at different times, Calgary School Board, Wild Rose Party, attempt to merge.

00:06:29.640 And then as a media commentator, yeah, what will she do next? As a media commentator, of course,

00:06:34.120 she said all kinds of controversial things. You'd understand that, Corey. You're a media commentator.

00:06:39.640 You're trying to provoke debate, but you're not running for office. Well, it's hard to move from

00:06:45.480 what she has done as a media commentator to running for office, because now you have all this stuff that

00:06:50.520 you said, and it's all online. So anyway, the NDP, their fear and loathing is with this line of attack.

00:07:00.120 So that's part of the election. Negative advertising is an essential part of campaigns. Some people say

00:07:08.200 they don't like it, but it's an essential way of bringing out facts. Well, yeah, I mean, people complain

00:07:15.400 about it, but there's, I mean, if any area of marketing has been more studied and checked and

00:07:20.040 tested before its political campaigns, the reason it's done is because it works. And whether you like

00:07:25.320 it or not, you can't pretend to play a high road and stay out of it, or you'll get the floor mopped

00:07:29.800 with you from the other team. It's an unfortunate trend, but it's a reality in politics today.

00:07:35.080 Yeah. I, you know, I've managed campaigns for different leaders and

00:07:38.680 different leaders when they were new in the job. And without exception leaders, when they're new,

00:07:45.240 say, well, no, I'm going to take the high road, no negative advertising.

00:07:49.560 Well, they paid a price for it. I remember in 2004, the conservatives got creamed by the liberals

00:07:56.920 with a barrage of negative ads. Well, in 2006, we were ready for them and we had our own barrage of

00:08:02.440 negative ads. You have to balance the, balance the ledger. So I think Danielle has learned that less,

00:08:08.680 should have learned that lesson from the past. So we'll see if she's, if she's ready to respond in

00:08:15.880 kind to what the NDP are, are attempting to do to her. So that's a big feat. It's an interesting campaign,

00:08:23.400 both, both women, which is, nobody even comments on that anymore. It's become so accepted that women 1.00

00:08:30.120 have leading roles in politics. But I think they're going to have to use these, and they are

00:08:37.640 already starting to use these older techniques of campaigning.

00:08:41.640 Well, and, you know, you mentioned that it's both women. And one of the things that sort of 1.00

00:08:45.640 went really poorly for, for Premier Prentice during the, his election when he lost to the NDP

00:08:51.320 was during the debates. And it, it really was an impression of bullying. You know, it was the taller

00:08:55.800 man standing up, talking down to, to a more, you know, a shorter woman. And that imagery really

00:09:02.600 soured a lot of people. Premier Smith isn't going to be accused of misogyny or bullying if she jumps 1.00

00:09:09.720 into the, the mix on the, the more negative front, like a male leader would in a sense.

00:09:14.440 Yeah, that's a good point, Corey. Yeah. She, she doesn't have to worry about that.

00:09:18.200 Uh, so I say, let, you know, let them go at it. I think it's important. Uh, it is very close. Uh,

00:09:26.600 the biggest advantage that the UCP has is the fact that, um, they get more bang for the buck for their

00:09:33.240 votes, uh, in that, uh, the rural ridings in Alberta have smaller populations. So they, or in other words,

00:09:40.280 they elect a few more members than they would if, if the constituency boundaries were strictly

00:09:46.920 proportional. So that's the advantage that the UCP has, whether it's enough to carry them over the

00:09:51.880 finish line, I don't know. They will probably lose. They'll be lucky to elect, uh, two or three or four

00:09:59.160 members in Edmonton. Um, they'll sweep the countryside except for urban pockets like Lethbridge. Um, Calgary

00:10:08.360 is, uh, you know, contested and both parties will win seats in Calgary, I think. But, uh, just a case

00:10:15.400 of do you get quite enough to get you over that 50% plus one number of seats. Uh, every seat counts,

00:10:23.240 you know, I mean, so this battle has to be waged everywhere. Even if the UCP isn't strong in Edmonton,

00:10:28.520 the two or three seats they, they could win there might be the margin of victory. Uh, so both parties

00:10:35.000 have to contest everywhere. Well, absolutely. And I mean, you, you get the donut around Edmonton,

00:10:39.400 which are, are, there's actually some strong UCP support there, but it's swing. And if you neglect

00:10:44.440 Edmonton too much, I imagine that could hang over and you could lose some of those marginal seats.

00:10:48.440 Absolutely. Yeah. Even if interior Edmonton looks like a lost cause. So, I mean, a lot of it's laying

00:10:54.840 on trust and they're really bringing that to a head with premier Smith, the NDP against her and saying,

00:11:00.280 you can't trust her. You don't know what she's going to do. I mean, Daniel Smith has always been

00:11:04.120 prone to impulsiveness. She is a more of an idea idealist than, uh, you know, uh, uh, a pragmatist.

00:11:10.520 I think when it comes to a lot of things, I think she's learning about that quickly now,

00:11:14.280 but as you said on my show, if I were to run and oh, I know better, that's not going to happen.

00:11:19.080 Uh, of course the opponents are going to dig out all sorts of quotes and things,

00:11:22.520 and they'll pull them out and let them out slowly all the way through the campaign.

00:11:25.480 We know that's going to happen. It continued to happen with premier Smith.

00:11:28.600 Is there any way though she can head that off or is she going to keep suffering this death of a 1.00

00:11:32.520 thousand cuts every day? Uh, the best defense is a strong offense. Uh, if you're playing defense,

00:11:39.080 you've already lost. So that's why I say that the, the UCP has to, should have its own strong

00:11:45.080 negative campaign against Rachel Notley. Uh, don't bother trying to explain away things that Danielle

00:11:52.840 may have said in the past. I mean, she's already dealt with that. For example, on the healthcare,

00:11:58.600 she said there won't be any fee for service healthcare. Um, there's other ways you can point

00:12:05.960 things that she has done that that's enough. Now you go on the attack and, uh, you know,

00:12:12.200 make it all about Rachel Notley's ties to the federal politicians who want to destroy Alberta's 0.98

00:12:17.000 economy. Um, that's the best defense. So, uh, one other thing before I finish up with you is

00:12:23.640 something kind of different around this time. I mean, there's always been some hot spots, but

00:12:27.000 the rift between kind of both parties and the media in this election and trying to control their

00:12:31.720 messaging going out in the case of Rachel Notley, there's just certain outlets, including ours,

00:12:36.040 that she just won't even talk to whatsoever when they won't even send us press releases.

00:12:39.720 Uh, and, uh, Premier Smith is, won't take follow-up questions at conferences and is trying at least

00:12:45.240 to reduce the amount of messaging going out when she goes into those. Uh, I mean, normally politicians

00:12:51.240 are beating your door down at election time to try and talk to the media as much as possible.

00:12:55.000 Right now there seem to be kind of almost trying to avoid it.

00:12:57.720 Yeah, this is again an unfortunate, but I guess an inevitable trend of the polarization of media.

00:13:03.880 Uh, you know, at one time there were fewer media outlets and they had some pretense of objectivity

00:13:10.440 and neutrality in politics. Today that pretense is largely gone and all the media are identified with

00:13:18.600 one side or another and politicians inevitably then, uh, take side. This is not a new development.

00:13:24.360 Uh, for example, when I was working for Stephen Harper, uh, he made strong attempts to, to speak to

00:13:32.840 local community newspapers, uh, in preference for wasting his time with the Toronto Star, for example.

00:13:39.640 Uh, Joe Biden, you know, uh, he's very selective in, in the questions that he will take.

00:13:46.760 Um, it's, it's just a fact of life. So, uh, we have to get used to that. And, uh, you know,

00:13:55.800 I know it'd be frustrating for an outlet like Western Standard if the NDP won't talk to you.

00:14:01.240 Um, so go and talk to the other side and let them speak.

00:14:06.040 Well, and that's what happens. And I mean, certainly we're, we're in an unapologetically

00:14:09.880 conservative editorial slant here, but you know, you're, you're only making us crabby

00:14:13.720 here and we're not going to get any nicer for, for your having shut us out. But, uh,

00:14:17.240 uh, that's no, it is unfortunate. I, you know, it's, it's, it's kind of unhealthy,

00:14:22.040 but that seems to be the way it is. And it's not just here in Alberta. It's the way it is everywhere.

00:14:27.000 So, uh, I guess we just have to live with it. So, you know, you, we used to think there'd be a

00:14:31.400 neutral media that would let both sides speak. Well, both sides are still speaking, but now they're

00:14:35.960 speaking through their own outlets. Um, NDP has press progress and other house organs that they can

00:14:43.480 speak through. Western Standard is a conservative voice. Um, you know, I guess there's, it's not the

00:14:51.080 ideal, but that's the way it is. Yeah. Well, I guess I hope there's some outlets on each side managed to

00:14:55.800 hit the middle of somewhere and inform the voters. That's all we can hope for.

00:14:59.960 All right. Well, that went fast, but there was just a lot to cover. I really appreciate you coming on

00:15:03.960 to talk to us today, Professor Flanagan. Uh, it's going to be an interesting few weeks to see how

00:15:08.040 this develops. I mean, we, we, it's close races in Alberta are actually something that have only come

00:15:13.080 about in the last 10 years or so. And, uh, well, because of the, I have to go back to the, the big

00:15:18.680 structural factor that is determining everything else is the collapse of the provincial liberals,

00:15:24.360 migration of their support to the NDP, the emergence of a two-party system in Alberta,

00:15:29.800 a true two-party system in which you have two large parties contesting for, for government. These

00:15:35.480 are all relatively new developments in our history. We never had them from 1905 up until, as you say,

00:15:41.800 the last 10 years. So, a lot of our sort of conventional wisdom about politics is outdated.

00:15:47.480 It goes back to an earlier era. Um, but now we have a, a different, uh, uh, configuration which

00:15:56.440 seems likely to last into the future. I don't see any sign of small parties, uh, reviving. Liberal,

00:16:02.920 provincial liberals are dead. The Alberta party seems to be dead. The Greens never got anywhere in Alberta.

00:16:09.000 The further right parties have been wiped out by the, uh, the further right takeover of the UCP.

00:16:15.800 Then that took the wind out of the sails of the provincial wild rose party. So, all these small

00:16:20.680 parties are, are, are non-entities now. So, it's just the big two going at it. And it's, it's different

00:16:26.920 for people with memories. That's quite different, uh, than Alberta politics used to be. But I think it's

00:16:31.480 going to be the, the way it will be for the future. Yeah. Well, we'll watch them punch it out for the next few

00:16:37.080 weeks and see what happens. Uh, so thank you again. I hope we can check in with, uh, you again, perhaps

00:16:42.280 before the end of the election or right after it. Okay. Vote early, vote often. Bye-bye. Thank you. Bye.

Western Standard - May 05, 2023

Professor Tom Flanagan on the Alberta election

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