Professor Tom Flanagan on the Alberta election
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Summary
In this episode, I chat with political scientist and expert on Alberta politics and the upcoming election. We talk about the current state of politics in Alberta and what it means for the coming election. I also talk about some of the challenges facing the United Conservative Party and what they are trying to do to win the election.
Transcript
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I appreciate you coming on to talk to us today. You know, we got this election going. It's going
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to be clearly already a heated and an ugly one in a lot of ways. But what I kind of want to start
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with is, you know, it's so close. It's neck and neck. Well, there's no conservative split for
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the parties right now. It's not even a liberal party on the other side that you could say is
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ostensibly centrist. It's NDP. Alberta is supposed to be the bastion of conservatism. What happened?
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Well, the main thing that's happened over the long term is the collapse of the liberals and the
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migration of their support to the NDP. The perception of Alberta as an overwhelmingly
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conservative province was always a bit misleading. It was based on the vote splitting on the left.
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If you went back and looked at the voting results for all the years that the conservatives were in
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power, it was only a couple of times that they got more than 50% of the vote. Usually their vote was
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strong, but not actually a majority. There was always a lot of voters that were looking for an
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alternative to the conservatives. Well, now they have one. And so our politics now looks pretty much
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like that of the other Western provinces in which you have on one side a conservative party with,
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you know, in each province, it's a different name and a different history. And then on the left,
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you have the NDP. And so we're very, our politics now is very much like that of British Columbia or
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Saskatchewan or Manitoba. And so as I say, the perception that Alberta was different was a bit
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misleading. It was based on the, on the split between the liberals and the NDP, which has disappeared.
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Okay. So what can be done about it? I mean, we see the UCP, for example, though, is it definitely
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trying to recapture, I guess, some of that center right or softer conservative vote. I mean,
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it's a very high spending campaign they're going on so far. And they're certainly backing away
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quite often or trying to avoid what would be considered old meat and potatoes, conservative
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issues. Do you think they're going to be able to pull that vote back to them by the time the
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election day comes? Well, they have to try. I mean, here's a situation for the UCP.
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Four years ago, under Jason Kenney, they did win an overwhelming victory and they did get more than a
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majority of popular votes. But then they had the internal splits within the party. Jason resigned
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and new leader, Danielle Smith, who's got into power mainly on the strength of the, you might call
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the further right elements of the party, sort of a populist rural version of conservatism. These were
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her main supporters. So now to hope to win the election, they have to soften that image and
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perceive more to, well, what in political science we call the median voter people who are kind of in
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the center of the distribution. There simply is not enough support for the populist right,
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even in Alberta to win the election. They, they could win control of the UCP. But to win a general
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election, they are going to have to appeal more to the median voters. So that's what Danielle has been
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attempting to do. She has downplayed some of the, the edgier positions that she took, like her sovereignty
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act as was watered down. And she's opening up the purse strings, funding new arena in Calgary,
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promises for improvement of the healthcare system, all the stuff costs money. And it's designed to
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appeal to the median voter who could be swayed to vote in either direction. They're not firm supporters
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of the UCP. So they have to have inducement. So anyway, that's the strategy behind what she's doing.
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And it's a tried and true strategy of campaigning in Canada, as in other countries. And sometimes it
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works, and sometimes it doesn't. But what, what she's doing is, is pretty standard.
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Yeah, so I mean, I guess some of the element of fear of the unknown with the NDP is gone as well.
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I mean, Alberta had never had an NDP government, it was always assumed it would be far, far left if
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they ever got their hands on things. And I, you know, they certainly were a left wing party when they
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were governing for four years, but they weren't as extreme as some might have feared they'd be.
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So it's not, people won't feel it's the end of the world if they got in again. So that's where they
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become, I guess, more into consideration for a common voter than they used to be
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Yeah, well, you know, elections are largely determined by fear and loathing, as great
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journalists put it. I think the UCP should actually be doing more to stoke that.
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I think their best line of attack against Rachel Notley would be, and they are doing this to some
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extent, and I think they probably need to do more of it, to highlight her association with Justin Trudeau.
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And you could even throw in the leader of the federal NDP for, you know, for keeps, for a bonus,
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you know, put the picture of the three of them together, maybe have to manufacture the picture,
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and say, are these the people you want running Alberta? Because Trudeau is very unpopular here,
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and the federal Tories have no trouble sweeping the province. So, you know, I would say you want to
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associate Rachel Notley in the popular mind with Justin Trudeau, and point to episodes in the past
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where the two of them were on the same page. For their part, what the NDP is doing, I think this
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is a very effective attack ad. I've seen it now on big posters, and it's actually quite unusual in Alberta to
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have a big street poster with an attack ad on it. It's a picture of Danielle, and it just says,
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what will she do next? And that plays to her history of a very colorful political history of having been in
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different situations at different times, Calgary School Board, Wild Rose Party, attempt to merge.
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And then as a media commentator, yeah, what will she do next? As a media commentator, of course,
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she said all kinds of controversial things. You'd understand that, Corey. You're a media commentator.
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You're trying to provoke debate, but you're not running for office. Well, it's hard to move from
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what she has done as a media commentator to running for office, because now you have all this stuff that
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you said, and it's all online. So anyway, the NDP, their fear and loathing is with this line of attack.
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So that's part of the election. Negative advertising is an essential part of campaigns. Some people say
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they don't like it, but it's an essential way of bringing out facts. Well, yeah, I mean, people complain
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about it, but there's, I mean, if any area of marketing has been more studied and checked and
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tested before its political campaigns, the reason it's done is because it works. And whether you like
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it or not, you can't pretend to play a high road and stay out of it, or you'll get the floor mopped
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with you from the other team. It's an unfortunate trend, but it's a reality in politics today.
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Yeah. I, you know, I've managed campaigns for different leaders and
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different leaders when they were new in the job. And without exception leaders, when they're new,
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say, well, no, I'm going to take the high road, no negative advertising.
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Well, they paid a price for it. I remember in 2004, the conservatives got creamed by the liberals
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with a barrage of negative ads. Well, in 2006, we were ready for them and we had our own barrage of
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negative ads. You have to balance the, balance the ledger. So I think Danielle has learned that less,
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should have learned that lesson from the past. So we'll see if she's, if she's ready to respond in
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kind to what the NDP are, are attempting to do to her. So that's a big feat. It's an interesting campaign,
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both, both women, which is, nobody even comments on that anymore. It's become so accepted that women
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have leading roles in politics. But I think they're going to have to use these, and they are
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already starting to use these older techniques of campaigning.
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Well, and, you know, you mentioned that it's both women. And one of the things that sort of
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went really poorly for, for Premier Prentice during the, his election when he lost to the NDP
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was during the debates. And it, it really was an impression of bullying. You know, it was the taller
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man standing up, talking down to, to a more, you know, a shorter woman. And that imagery really
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soured a lot of people. Premier Smith isn't going to be accused of misogyny or bullying if she jumps
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into the, the mix on the, the more negative front, like a male leader would in a sense.
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Yeah, that's a good point, Corey. Yeah. She, she doesn't have to worry about that.
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Uh, so I say, let, you know, let them go at it. I think it's important. Uh, it is very close. Uh,
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the biggest advantage that the UCP has is the fact that, um, they get more bang for the buck for their
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votes, uh, in that, uh, the rural ridings in Alberta have smaller populations. So they, or in other words,
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they elect a few more members than they would if, if the constituency boundaries were strictly
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proportional. So that's the advantage that the UCP has, whether it's enough to carry them over the
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finish line, I don't know. They will probably lose. They'll be lucky to elect, uh, two or three or four
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members in Edmonton. Um, they'll sweep the countryside except for urban pockets like Lethbridge. Um, Calgary
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is, uh, you know, contested and both parties will win seats in Calgary, I think. But, uh, just a case
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of do you get quite enough to get you over that 50% plus one number of seats. Uh, every seat counts,
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you know, I mean, so this battle has to be waged everywhere. Even if the UCP isn't strong in Edmonton,
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the two or three seats they, they could win there might be the margin of victory. Uh, so both parties
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have to contest everywhere. Well, absolutely. And I mean, you, you get the donut around Edmonton,
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which are, are, there's actually some strong UCP support there, but it's swing. And if you neglect
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Edmonton too much, I imagine that could hang over and you could lose some of those marginal seats.
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Absolutely. Yeah. Even if interior Edmonton looks like a lost cause. So, I mean, a lot of it's laying
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on trust and they're really bringing that to a head with premier Smith, the NDP against her and saying,
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you can't trust her. You don't know what she's going to do. I mean, Daniel Smith has always been
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prone to impulsiveness. She is a more of an idea idealist than, uh, you know, uh, uh, a pragmatist.
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I think when it comes to a lot of things, I think she's learning about that quickly now,
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but as you said on my show, if I were to run and oh, I know better, that's not going to happen.
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Uh, of course the opponents are going to dig out all sorts of quotes and things,
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and they'll pull them out and let them out slowly all the way through the campaign.
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We know that's going to happen. It continued to happen with premier Smith.
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Is there any way though she can head that off or is she going to keep suffering this death of a
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thousand cuts every day? Uh, the best defense is a strong offense. Uh, if you're playing defense,
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you've already lost. So that's why I say that the, the UCP has to, should have its own strong
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negative campaign against Rachel Notley. Uh, don't bother trying to explain away things that Danielle
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may have said in the past. I mean, she's already dealt with that. For example, on the healthcare,
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she said there won't be any fee for service healthcare. Um, there's other ways you can point
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things that she has done that that's enough. Now you go on the attack and, uh, you know,
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make it all about Rachel Notley's ties to the federal politicians who want to destroy Alberta's
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economy. Um, that's the best defense. So, uh, one other thing before I finish up with you is
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something kind of different around this time. I mean, there's always been some hot spots, but
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the rift between kind of both parties and the media in this election and trying to control their
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messaging going out in the case of Rachel Notley, there's just certain outlets, including ours,
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that she just won't even talk to whatsoever when they won't even send us press releases.
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Uh, and, uh, Premier Smith is, won't take follow-up questions at conferences and is trying at least
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to reduce the amount of messaging going out when she goes into those. Uh, I mean, normally politicians
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are beating your door down at election time to try and talk to the media as much as possible.
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Right now there seem to be kind of almost trying to avoid it.
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Yeah, this is again an unfortunate, but I guess an inevitable trend of the polarization of media.
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Uh, you know, at one time there were fewer media outlets and they had some pretense of objectivity
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and neutrality in politics. Today that pretense is largely gone and all the media are identified with
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one side or another and politicians inevitably then, uh, take side. This is not a new development.
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Uh, for example, when I was working for Stephen Harper, uh, he made strong attempts to, to speak to
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local community newspapers, uh, in preference for wasting his time with the Toronto Star, for example.
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Uh, Joe Biden, you know, uh, he's very selective in, in the questions that he will take.
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Um, it's, it's just a fact of life. So, uh, we have to get used to that. And, uh, you know,
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I know it'd be frustrating for an outlet like Western Standard if the NDP won't talk to you.
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Um, so go and talk to the other side and let them speak.
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Well, and that's what happens. And I mean, certainly we're, we're in an unapologetically
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conservative editorial slant here, but you know, you're, you're only making us crabby
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here and we're not going to get any nicer for, for your having shut us out. But, uh,
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uh, that's no, it is unfortunate. I, you know, it's, it's, it's kind of unhealthy,
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but that seems to be the way it is. And it's not just here in Alberta. It's the way it is everywhere.
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So, uh, I guess we just have to live with it. So, you know, you, we used to think there'd be a
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neutral media that would let both sides speak. Well, both sides are still speaking, but now they're
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speaking through their own outlets. Um, NDP has press progress and other house organs that they can
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speak through. Western Standard is a conservative voice. Um, you know, I guess there's, it's not the
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ideal, but that's the way it is. Yeah. Well, I guess I hope there's some outlets on each side managed to
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hit the middle of somewhere and inform the voters. That's all we can hope for.
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All right. Well, that went fast, but there was just a lot to cover. I really appreciate you coming on
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to talk to us today, Professor Flanagan. Uh, it's going to be an interesting few weeks to see how
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this develops. I mean, we, we, it's close races in Alberta are actually something that have only come
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about in the last 10 years or so. And, uh, well, because of the, I have to go back to the, the big
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structural factor that is determining everything else is the collapse of the provincial liberals,
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migration of their support to the NDP, the emergence of a two-party system in Alberta,
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a true two-party system in which you have two large parties contesting for, for government. These
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are all relatively new developments in our history. We never had them from 1905 up until, as you say,
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the last 10 years. So, a lot of our sort of conventional wisdom about politics is outdated.
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It goes back to an earlier era. Um, but now we have a, a different, uh, uh, configuration which
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seems likely to last into the future. I don't see any sign of small parties, uh, reviving. Liberal,
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provincial liberals are dead. The Alberta party seems to be dead. The Greens never got anywhere in Alberta.
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The further right parties have been wiped out by the, uh, the further right takeover of the UCP.
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Then that took the wind out of the sails of the provincial wild rose party. So, all these small
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parties are, are, are non-entities now. So, it's just the big two going at it. And it's, it's different
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for people with memories. That's quite different, uh, than Alberta politics used to be. But I think it's
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going to be the, the way it will be for the future. Yeah. Well, we'll watch them punch it out for the next few
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weeks and see what happens. Uh, so thank you again. I hope we can check in with, uh, you again, perhaps
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before the end of the election or right after it. Okay. Vote early, vote often. Bye-bye. Thank you. Bye.