Western Standard - SMITH： Feds’ immigration policy unsustainable...

00:00:00.000 Well, thank you very much for joining us today, Premier Smith, on an issue that's really, well, a sensitive one and a big one with a lot of people, and that's immigration.

00:00:10.440 Every level of government is dealing with it. Every citizen is dealing with it.

00:00:14.460 I guess you kind of unexpectedly brought it into the fore again with an interview you did last January.

00:00:20.280 Perhaps if we could start there, we're just kind of clarifying.

00:00:23.320 You'd spoken of aspiring to have Alberta double its population by 2050, and it got a lot of people pretty worked up.

00:00:30.900 Can you kind of expand on that a little?

00:00:33.200 Well, my thinking about it was that we were already growing at 200,000 a year based on those numbers.

00:00:40.440 So if you just do the math, by 25 years, it would be 5 million population.

00:00:45.280 And I have often thought that we would have more political clout if we had a higher population than Quebec.

00:00:51.200 But what I'm seeing, and I'm doing a lot of roundtables and town halls across the province, people are worried.

00:00:57.480 People are very nervous about our ability to be able to keep up with that pace of growth.

00:01:03.120 And I think we're beginning to see it.

00:01:05.000 So I'm listening to people.

00:01:06.580 I'm having to recalibrate a little bit on what our aspirations should be.

00:01:11.640 I think what we really need is a sensible immigration policy, similar to what we had under Stephen Harper, where we had a point system for bringing people in.

00:01:20.380 We made sure that newcomers matched the economic needs of our economy.

00:01:24.460 We made sure that we had a level of newcomers coming to our country that matched our ability to keep up with housing.

00:01:30.640 And I think what we're seeing is that, especially in Alberta, we're beginning to feel some of the pressure of that growth.

00:01:37.440 And I think that that's what people are responding to.

00:01:39.240 Yeah, and I'd crunch the numbers because, I mean, as soon as I first heard it, I thought, boy, that's a pretty fast growth.

00:01:44.340 And then I realized, well, actually, with where things went in 2023, if we sustain the current growth we're at, we will double by 2050, whether we aspire to do so or not.

00:01:52.640 But so the discussion has to be, I mean, you can't slow immigration.

00:01:57.080 That would be a federal move anyhow.

00:01:59.540 But we really have to better deal with it.

00:02:01.920 I mean, our health care is having a really hard time keeping up with our existing population.

00:02:06.060 Housing is really pressuring people, the education system.

00:02:10.040 So I guess through better targeting, we could better, you know, adjust to that and have them contribute to the growth that we need.

00:02:18.960 But is that going to be enough?

00:02:20.440 Like the numbers just sound so staggeringly large.

00:02:23.020 Well, I think what we I think 2023 may have been an anomaly.

00:02:27.760 I think one of it was that when I got elected, we'd started into the Alberta is calling campaign.

00:02:32.620 And there was a good reason for doing that.

00:02:34.680 I mean, we'd had 13 quarters of out migration.

00:02:37.180 We knew that we were going to turn around with an oil and gas and other building boom, and we needed to have workers here.

00:02:42.460 But I think that it was more successful than than anybody anticipated it being, in part because we were one of the first provinces to firmly put COVID behind us and the pandemic behind us.

00:02:54.620 So that I think a lot of freedom lovers came to our province knowing that we were taking a bit of a different approach.

00:02:59.540 I think as well that the housing proposition was such a good one.

00:03:02.900 And we still have several markets in Alberta that are the cheapest in North America, I think Edmonton and Red Deer in particular.

00:03:09.540 And of course, it coincided with the Ukrainian evacuees as well, 70,000 of whom came to Alberta during that period of time.

00:03:16.840 And the remarkable thing is almost all of them got jobs.

00:03:19.140 We just did a recent assessment of how many are on social supports, and it was only about 1,700.

00:03:23.680 So I think those factors were part of what led to the surge in growth.

00:03:30.060 So part of what we've done is we've really scaled back that Alberta's Calling campaign just to target the skilled workers that we need.

00:03:39.100 We're trying to get an additional 2,000 skilled workers to come here so that we can keep up with the building growth of homes,

00:03:45.160 keep up with the major industrial projects that we have in the industrial heartland and in the agri-food processing area and in the forestry sector.

00:03:52.540 So that's part of how we have responded to that.

00:03:56.040 But I do think that the federal government has clearly led all of the different streams of immigration

00:04:04.340 beyond the ability of the Canadian governments and provincial governments to be able to properly support.

00:04:12.400 And you're seeing it.

00:04:13.260 I mean, at the Halifax conference, every single premier was raising the concern about the increase in housing prices,

00:04:19.620 increase in rents, the number of people using food bank, the number of people who are newcomers who are using shelters,

00:04:25.120 the impact on education system, the difficulty finding a family doctor.

00:04:30.280 I think Albertans want to be able to embrace newcomers who are going to participate in our economy.

00:04:36.120 But we have to do so at a rate that allows us to keep up with home construction,

00:04:40.020 as well as keeping up with being able to provide all of those services.

00:04:43.220 And right now, there is just way too much pressure on each of those.

00:04:47.380 We're feeling it in government.

00:04:48.640 I think regular Albertans are feeling it as well.

00:04:51.320 And that's why we need to return to a more sensible kind of immigration policy like we used to have.

00:04:56.120 So another area, and it's a more sensitive one, but people really need to address it,

00:05:00.060 particularly when we see what's going on in the UK, is people culturally integrating.

00:05:05.480 I mean, some cultures have an easier time adapting.

00:05:09.200 I mean, Ukraine's got a similar climate.

00:05:11.840 There's a lot of Ukrainian people who had settled in Alberta previously,

00:05:14.700 so they could quickly adapt to being here.

00:05:17.900 From some of the countries, and they're countries that need, I mean, they have refugees that are coming.

00:05:21.800 They're fleeing some terrible situations, but they can have a hard time integrating with the existing population.

00:05:29.200 And people fear it might lead to the sorts of clashes and events that we're seeing in Europe right now.

00:05:34.500 What could we do to, I guess, calm people and prevent that sort of cultural clash from happening here over time?

00:05:41.200 Yeah, I think you've identified another reason for unease.

00:05:44.180 People are looking around the world, and they're seeing that these disputes are spilling over into a number of different societies.

00:05:51.240 And I don't think Albertans want to see disputes from other countries spill out into the streets here.

00:05:56.140 And I think we've done a really good job of making sure that people are coming here for the values that we have in Alberta.

00:06:02.680 I mean, we value family and faith and community and free enterprise and philanthropy.

00:06:07.260 And there's so many, many cultures around the world who are coming here so that they can live here in peace and harmony

00:06:13.880 and have religious freedom and be able to raise their families and have a good job or start a business.

00:06:18.000 And that's what we want to keep on doing.

00:06:19.520 That's why having an economic focus on immigration makes so much sense.

00:06:23.800 It assists with integration, and it assists with making sure that those international disputes don't spill over into Alberta.

00:06:31.600 So we have to be very mindful of the nervousness people have when they look around the world

00:06:36.440 and make sure that we're doing everything we can.

00:06:38.740 Because if we don't have the ability to provide the supports, the English language learning, that first job,

00:06:45.140 the ability to have wraparound supports, to get a person into a community to be able to support them long term,

00:06:51.540 that's when you end up with people feeling disenfranchised.

00:06:54.480 That's when you end up with having some of that anger spill over.

00:06:59.900 And I think we've done a great job of being able to avoid that.

00:07:02.500 And so I'm not as concerned about where we find ourselves now,

00:07:06.920 but I am mindful that this level of continued pressure in Alberta is something that is going to be something we have to address.

00:07:18.220 We don't want for it to spill over into people feeling like there are too many newcomers coming to our province.

00:07:25.340 We want to make sure people will continue as they always have to embrace newcomers.

00:07:29.360 But I think that the problem that we've seen is that everybody is feeling the increase in the cost of housing,

00:07:37.520 increase in cost of living, and the fact that we have a federal government who's essentially thrown out the immigration rules of the past.

00:07:45.420 And that is what's creating pressure, not only here, but through to Quebec and every other province as well.

00:07:50.000 It was part of the reason it was such a major topic of conversation when the premiers got together at the last round in Halifax.

00:07:55.340 Well, and some of the issue is just sheer volume.

00:07:58.760 I mean, you know, some fantastic people coming, but you can only accommodate so many at so much of a speed.

00:08:05.600 Quebec has always been outspoken and at least, you know, controls as much as they can provincially in immigration,

00:08:10.740 even though at the base of it, it is a federal thing.

00:08:13.280 Are there more policies we can look forward to from Alberta to try and take more control,

00:08:17.380 at least of our own destiny, as to controlling immigration for ourselves?

00:08:22.400 Well, let me tell you the way I'm looking at this.

00:08:25.000 So we're about 12% of the population, and yet we ended up with 22% of the newcomers in the 22-23 calendar year.

00:08:33.940 That gives you an idea of just how much additional pressure it is that we've been bearing.

00:08:40.300 The other thing I would say is that our home builders have been amazing because they've seen the extra pressure.

00:08:44.900 So they've massively wrapped up their construction, and now we're building 56% more houses this year than we did last year,

00:08:52.460 which would allow for us to build about 40,000 homes this year, which they tell me can accommodate about 100,000 people.

00:08:59.220 So that is going flat out.

00:09:00.680 So I hope that that gives you some idea of what I've seen our housing capability is,

00:09:07.300 as well as what I'm seeing in the social services area.

00:09:10.680 We know that we're seeing an increased pressure in shelter on food banks,

00:09:16.600 and we want to make sure that that doesn't continue.

00:09:18.920 So part of the approach that I've always taken is that I've watched what Quebec has done.

00:09:23.960 Quebec has the ability to choose about 55% of the newcomers that come to Quebec

00:09:28.560 because they're choosing on the basis of language.

00:09:31.160 I just saw recently that Quebec wants to take over their entire immigration choices.

00:09:38.260 And whereas in Alberta, we only get the ability to choose about 9,500 of the newcomers

00:09:44.900 through our provincial nominee program.

00:09:46.780 It seems to me that having more ability for us to use that program

00:09:50.820 so that we can attach workers to the jobs that are available

00:09:54.360 and make sure that we have the supports of the communities around them,

00:09:57.560 that would make a lot of sense.

00:09:58.700 So I have been advocating for that, that we should be able to much more like Quebec,

00:10:04.020 have greater ability to have the selection over those who do come to Alberta

00:10:09.020 so that we can make sure that they're going to be a good fit

00:10:12.300 and also be able to seamlessly integrate and be able to have the jobs

00:10:16.540 and the social supports to support them.

00:10:18.440 Then I'll continue advocating for that.

00:10:19.980 But the general issue is that we simply as a country

00:10:23.500 cannot bring in 1.2 million people.

00:10:26.360 That is, I believe, through all the different streams,

00:10:29.520 the family stream, the refugee stream, the student stream,

00:10:33.300 the temporary foreign worker stream,

00:10:34.920 and the regular immigration stream that came in in 2023.

00:10:39.340 And I think we've just seen, whether it's in Alberta or Quebec or elsewhere,

00:10:42.960 that there just isn't the ability for the provinces to keep up

00:10:45.920 and there just isn't the ability for the housing market to keep up.

00:10:48.400 Back in Mulroney's day, I think Mulroney had 250,000 newcomers.

00:10:54.100 That was his immigration target. 0.93

00:10:56.040 It advanced more under Harper.

00:10:57.580 I don't quite know what the numbers are.

00:10:59.320 But going back to something that is based on what is our ability

00:11:03.980 to be able to effectively build houses and support newcomers,

00:11:07.360 that's got to be the number.

00:11:08.340 It can't just be an open borders policy without limit.

00:11:11.500 It's just creating way too much pressure on every province's social programs.

00:11:16.000 And it's also putting a lot of pressure on people being able to aspire

00:11:20.860 to ultimately have a home one day

00:11:22.600 or ultimately be able to have an affordable rental suite.

00:11:25.360 Those things are all connected.

00:11:26.680 And we have to make sure that we're taking care of Albertans.

00:11:29.480 Yeah, and so before I let you go,

00:11:31.820 I mean, there's some reactionary people who say

00:11:33.460 we shouldn't have any immigration. 1.00

00:11:34.640 That's unreasonable.

00:11:35.500 Immigration is a net benefit to us. 0.54

00:11:37.220 We do well with immigration, and it's important.

00:11:40.580 But as you said, the 1.2 million a year is unsustainable as well.

00:11:44.200 Do you have a sort of number you think that maybe unified premiers

00:11:47.320 could be asking the federal government to just tap the brakes on

00:11:50.060 and bring us to that's sustainable?

00:11:51.740 Well, you know, I guess, is there like a 1% kind of target?

00:11:55.460 If you look at we have 40 million people in Canada right now,

00:11:57.820 if it was 1%, that would be about 400,000.

00:12:00.020 When I look at whether or not our share would be able to accommodate that,

00:12:03.840 I think we probably could.

00:12:05.100 If you look at our historical growth before we ended up

00:12:08.060 with a major downturn in our economy that lasted for so many years.

00:12:11.680 So maybe that's the right number.

00:12:12.900 I mean, there's probably smarter people than me who can figure that out.

00:12:16.520 But I can just tell you from what I have now observed

00:12:19.280 about trying to provide the services to accommodate folks

00:12:24.560 who came here through 2023, I think we had the ability

00:12:27.580 to do some of that more effectively because we had had so many years

00:12:31.400 of decline and we had some housing projects that had started up.

00:12:36.140 And so we were able to, I think, do a pretty good job

00:12:39.340 of being able to match that growth pressure.

00:12:41.880 But now I'm looking at the fact that we've got, you know,

00:12:44.960 22,500 additional students that came into school

00:12:48.200 that we weren't anticipating.

00:12:49.780 And it takes three or four years to build a school.

00:12:52.280 We probably need to build 30 or more schools a year

00:12:55.680 for the next number of years in order to be able to keep up with that growth.

00:12:59.460 That's the kind of practical reality that I'm talking about,

00:13:02.220 is that if we're going to be welcoming newcomers,

00:13:05.860 we've got to have a place for them to live and a place for their kids 1.00

00:13:08.360 to go to school.

00:13:09.120 And we've got to make sure everybody has a family doctor.

00:13:11.320 So I think that there is a very pragmatic and practical approach

00:13:15.020 that we can take that allows us to continue to keep up with growth,

00:13:19.420 continue to welcome newcomers without creating the kind of tensions

00:13:22.680 that are beginning to emerge because people are beginning

00:13:26.160 to feel disenfranchised.

00:13:28.160 Great.

00:13:28.640 Well, I appreciate you coming on to clarify that for us today.

00:13:31.700 Is there anything else you'd like to add before I let you go?

00:13:33.400 No, thanks so much for the conversation, Corey.

00:13:36.440 I know that you guys do a lot of work on covering these and other issues.

00:13:40.680 I mean, the other thing I might say is one of the things,

00:13:43.580 I was just on a Northern tour,

00:13:44.980 and it's very interesting to see the difference between North and South

00:13:47.760 because North keeps telling me, we need more people.

00:13:50.480 But one of the things that they're doing up North

00:13:51.880 is they're trying to grow their own skilled labor.

00:13:54.840 They're offering more trades programs to kids.

00:13:58.060 They're having larger families.

00:13:59.140 And we are also a party that supports families.

00:14:02.040 We're doing what we can to be able to make it easier

00:14:04.260 for families to be able to have kids,

00:14:06.100 for moms and dads to both be able to go back to work

00:14:08.920 so that they don't have to choose between having kids and working.

00:14:11.760 That's part of the reason why we have the daycare program that we do.

00:14:15.060 And we're going to do both.

00:14:16.360 I mean, I think that that's one of the things that has made Alberta so strong

00:14:19.980 is that we always have had a much younger population here.

00:14:23.880 And so we've got a higher workforce participation rate.

00:14:26.300 We've got higher wages on average.

00:14:28.340 And that allows for all of us to pay lower taxes.

00:14:30.820 So I kind of like that as part of our model as well.

00:14:33.940 Great.

00:14:34.320 Well, thank you very much for coming on today.

00:14:36.800 And I hope we get to talk again sometime soon.

00:14:39.000 You bet.

00:14:39.300 Thanks, Corey.

Western Standard - August 14, 2024

SMITH： Feds’ immigration policy unsustainable...

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