Spring election and a change of government？ It could happen
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Summary
Yaroslav Baran joins the show to talk about the upcoming Conservative Party Leadership Convention in Calgary, and the challenges facing the party as it prepares to elect a new leader. He also talks about why the party needs a leader who can unite the party behind the next leader, and whether that's a good or bad thing.
Transcript
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Good evening Western Standard viewers and welcome to Hannaford, a weekly politics show of the
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Western Standard. It is Thursday, January the 22nd. With me today is our old friend Yaroslav
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Baran. In a past life, he was communications director to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
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These days, as co-founder of Pendulum Group, he's a political consultant in Ottawa.
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Oh, good. Yaroslav, in just a week, conservatives from all across Canada will be gathering in
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Calgary for the party's leadership review. Nobody seems to think Pierre Poitier's job
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his leader is in jeopardy, but conservatives are paying $1,000 plus hotels, airfares, and bar tabs
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to be here. So if it's not the leadership, what are the issues here for conservatives?
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Well, I mean, I wouldn't agree that it's not just leadership because the leadership vote is going to
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be probably the highlight of the weekend. It's going to be happening on the first evening of
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the convention, and it's probably going to be the thing that at least that the media hones in on.
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I haven't heard too many people paying too much attention to what the resolutions are for policy or party bylaw changes.
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But like in every convention, there's a lot of housekeeping that gets done, too.
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They tweak some bylaws and they pass policy recommendations from all over the country.
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But I think the focus that we're going to see is going to be a message of unity.
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conservatives as you note are coming together from across the whole country um and you know
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since mr polly it became leader uh the conservative movement has grown it's strengthened and the
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coalition has expanded uh witness the results of the last election uh actually can you remind us
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of those era stuff yeah sure i mean yeah yeah i mean in the last uh in the last election mr polly
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Poeliev, one of the conservative party under his leadership, received 41.5% of the popular vote.
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As you noted, Nigel, I used to advise Mr. Harper.
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He would have given his kidney for that kind of result, the kind of vote percentage that Mr. Poeliev got in the last election.
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All parties dream about getting 41.5% because it translates not only into victory, but into a strong majority government.
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We're not going to see the left coalesce around Mr. Carney again.
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And that means that if Mr. Paulyov continues to lead with principle to demonstrate strong leadership,
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if he maintains the support that he got last time into the next election, he will be the next Prime Minister of Canada.
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Why would the NDP not cluster around Mr. Carney if their failure to do so would put Mr. Polioff in office again?
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Yeah, look, I mean, the NDP and NDP voters are no strangers to strategic voting.
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But in the next election, they're going to see genuine opportunity.
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So it's not going to be just a question of, oh, we're going to be the kingmakers.
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We're going to be hopefully a strong third party or anything like that.
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They're going to see a genuine opportunity to grow because they see Mr. Carney having repositioned the liberals to the center.
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Public service jobs are being cut by the thousands.
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Progressives, capital P, so-called progressives, feel homeless.
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And when the NDP elected a new leader in March,
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I am convinced that we're going to see a normalization of Canadian politics
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we already agreed between ourselves that they were coming from all corners of the country.
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Are any of them coming with malice in their hearts?
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You know what it's like trying to keep Conservatives together?
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Any strong, successful party with a track record of success also has a degree of impatience.
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Conservatives will not wait around forever if they feel that their dogs can't hunt.
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Again, look at the results of the last election.
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And he's a trailblazer in terms of putting issues on the agenda that genuinely connects with voters or that mirror the true preoccupations of voters.
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He was talking about things like the cost of living well before it was on anybody else's radar.
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In fact, the establishment in Ottawa was kind of laughing at him, thinking, what planet is this guy on talking about inflation?
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like you know whatever fast forward a year everybody's talking about inflation everybody's
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talking about the cost of living you know time and time again he's demonstrated you know on crime
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on uh fixing the immigration system on on national security he tends to be a trailblazer
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he's got his finger on the pulse so what does he have to score to win was 80 support sufficient
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you know i'm not sure that there's a particular number um there's no you know there's no magical
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number on the books in terms of the party constitution or anything like that um so there's
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no there's no number he quote-unquote needs to get although i know many in the media are going
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to hone in on that point but it's an arbitrary and academic point at best i'm not going to guess
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But the real question, I think, will be the mood.
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There's no alternative leader trying to build support.
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And that, in and of itself, is a reflection of party unity.
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Mr. Carney's speech to the World Economic Forum.
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uh laid out an uninspiring vision of how the world's also rands could compete for third
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place in the emerging multipolar world that he foresees how would you advise
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mr polio to respond to that speech well first of all i'm not sure mr polio would have gone
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to the world economic forum uh so he wouldn't he certainly wouldn't be responding or giving
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an alternative speech there in person it's not exactly on brand for him but you know hey given
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the global context and given the fact that mr trump attended and everybody wants to bend his
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ear maybe he maybe he would have gone i don't know but i'm not sure there there is much to say
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in response you know mr carney laid out really you know the world as it is as it really is i think
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that was the point of his speech and you know he made a number of true points that we need to move
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away from our naivete of the past and accept, you know, the real power dynamics in the world
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might actually is right, whether or not we like that and whining about it doesn't do a thing
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to help Canada. He also made the point that we need to keep diversifying and investing in security
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in order to put actions behind words like sovereignty. And, you know, I actually quite
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liked his point that many countries are being performative when they talk about sovereignty
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while actually capitulating to pressure from Washington, even though he didn't actually
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mention Washington by name. But that's why the Conservatives have always said that we need to
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get serious about national defense. The Conservatives have always said that we need to be
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serious about security, about maintaining confidence in our immigration system by
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not being irresponsible in the way we structure and run it by partnering with allies and like-minded
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countries not just the biggest you know international clubs that we can find so i agree
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with you the speech wasn't inspiring it was sobering if anything but you know that doesn't
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mean its contents weren't true it seemed like he was playing catch-up to a lot of the stuff
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that conservatives have been saying for years well he certainly was although i don't think we've ever
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put it quite the way he did. Perhaps for that particular audience, the bureaucrat ease of
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variable geometry, plurilateralism, the gains from transactionalism,
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the architecture of collective problem solving, what's a hyperscaler?
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Yeah, I don't know what a hyperscaler is, and I'm not sure that I would have written a speech
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for a prime minister that starts by quoting uh thucydides but you know that's mr carney style
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that's the you know that's the the company he travels in and you know maybe you know maybe
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and maybe for the devil set that place um i i personally prefer to see leaders make speeches
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that their true audiences their own voters can relate to and uh you know that they can resonate
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kind of rhetoric and the same kind of focus that we
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Well, certainly my wife would have mocked me if I had, you know, I'd give it to her and say, I'm going to put this up to the boss, you know, what do you think? She would have probably told me to change the language a bit. While you were speaking, I looked up what a hyperscaler is, by the way, and that's a reference to the big tech companies, the AI people, you know, the invidias of the world and so forth.
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I don't understand how they put the word together
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Huddy, should I open it up with Thucydides' quote or maybe Herodotus?
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As an exercise in speech writing, and we're getting a long way from the conservatives here,
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but he did follow the classic Aristotelian framework for his speech.
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So as an exercise in speech writing, it's good.
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But the technical proficiency of it and the vocabulary that he used really identifies who Mr. Carney is.
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So I would want to ask you, do you think that, in fact, he is a closet conservative?
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He's taken lots of Mr. Poilier's ideas and run with them and done very well with them.
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And do you think that's where his comfort level is?
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look you know what i i think there's a fair argument to be made that he is a closet
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you know variety of conservative uh maybe sort of a a closet classical tory if you will
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sort of comfortable on bay street comfortable um you know presenting uh you know quarterly
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earnings reports that sort of thing um and you know that's reflected in his uh in his
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verbiage in a speech. It's the kind of language that was probably fairly familiar to the actual
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people in the room, the billionaire corporate set who was in the room listening to a speech
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at Davos. I think that conservatism has evolved quite a bit in Canada. It's always been a coalition
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of different groups. And I would also posit that that's likely why Mr. Kvalyev has been successful
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as a conservative leader he doesn't belong squarely to any one of the factions or groups
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within the conservative tent he's sort of a cross-pollinated kind of function of all of them
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you know he's comfortable speaking with um with social conservatives he's comfortable speaking
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with uh democratic reformers he's comfortable speaking with uh um what you know with with uh
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you know sort of a populist uh resonant you know uh what's you know what's on the mind of your
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barber or your cab driver or your small business owner and and that's that's certainly mr pauliev's
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recipe for success um i would say that he is uh he's a bit more of a pan conservative than
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you know whatever variety mr carney might be which might be a sort of a downtown toronto bay street
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type. Yes. Well, let's say for the sake of argument that Mr. Carney is sort of something
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of a conservative, then how is that going to affect his relationship with the NDP?
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That's precisely why I think the NDP is set for a strong rebound in the coming
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etc etc so if liberals are are muttering that way then certainly new democrats feel that they
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no longer can morally justify parking their conscience and and casting their vote for the
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liberals i i think that that mr carney's repositioning of his party is ultimately
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going to be his own downfall he's trying to appeal to a broad swath of conservative and
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liberal vote switchers but i'm not sure that that's going to hold in the end you've got the
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real deal of conservatives on one end and a revamped left that can actually be true to itself
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on the other end. And Mr. Carney might end up squeezing himself out of a political home.
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Well, that does bear very much on the possibility of an election this year. There's a lot of
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speculation that Mr. Carney, in order to get a majority, that he feels he needs to advance his
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his agenda will bring about the circumstances, but is that actually going to work?
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He got elected on the basis of the NDP coming to his support.
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If he alienates the NDP, then it's back to him against the conservatives and he running
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What should we be watching for during the convention?
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I think it's the next few months that are going to be really telling.
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Mr. Carney spent the end of 2025 aggressively trying to get a majority by stealth, trying
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I don't think that there are more waiting in the wings.
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This is not the kind of thing that you can strategically stage or we're going to announce
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so-and-so in you know mid-february or anything like that it's too risky it's too slippery so
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when you've got somebody when you've got a we've got a live fish on your you know on the end of
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your poll you reel it in right away so i don't think that there that there's any anybody else
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crossing the floor that's going to give him that majority and i think he desperately all the signs
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are that he desperately wants one he doesn't seem to be that capable of governing at least in
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parliament without a majority. His legislative progress has been really, really weak, like
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really weak, weaker than I've ever, ever seen, uh, for any government. And he, he's, he's going
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to try hard to get a majority. If he can't get it through floor crossings, I think he'll be
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strongly, strongly tempted to call an early election. And, um, given, given that the North
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American free trade agreement renegotiation or, or, or refresh exercise is going to be starting
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this summer, it's going to give him all the pretext he needs. You're an old watcher of
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politics, Nigel. You know that typically a prime minister announces a reason. And as long as it's
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a reasonably plausible excuse, then you get away with it. So I could absolutely see him saying,
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we're going into the negotiation of our lifetime with the Kuzma re-evaluation, and I need a
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refresh mandate specifically for this i need a stronger hand so uh so i'm going to go to the
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polls i would not be surprised at all to see that happen for say maybe a june election or
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june july election i think oh you think that late i i was uh when i was thinking about it i
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was looking at the ndp i think their leadership vote is at the end of march they need to have
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somebody in place by then what why would you wait any longer well um the closer you get to summer
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the closer you get to the beginning of the kuzma the free trade agreement renegotiation that the
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the more the more credible your pretext is so people aren't really going to be thinking about
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it necessarily in april they certainly will be in june but you know the time is going to be variable
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and he's going to be watching the polls and right now he's doing well the polls the liberals and
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conservatives are basically neck and neck depending on which poll you look at and he's not
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i i can see him not quite realizing in time that the ndp is going to be a threat but once you
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once the election campaign gets underway people start to pay attention they start to match their
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own values and their own conscience to an electoral option and the ndp is going to rebound the
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conservatives are going to hold strong and it's going to be really competitive so what do you
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think is possible for him to do in the next five months, during which he's got to occupy,
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you know, you've got to make headlines, he's got to be there and occupy the space.
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What could he actually achieve? There is a number of controversial bills out there.
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C9, for example, there's a lot of people talking about that. C2 as well, which...
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you honestly i think his his his priority is going to be on foreign policy i think we're going to see
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a lot of foreign travel a lot of foreign visits a lot of foreign speeches a lot of announcements
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about new free trade negotiations with this country or that country you know we saw indonesia
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for example in the fall and we got some negotiations underway with india and so on
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he he is strong in that kind of an environment it plays to his strength but actually getting
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stuff done in parliament that's probably his his weakest suit because he doesn't seem to be capable
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of of managing parliament well so i yeah i don't i don't think that we're going to see a lot happen
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in parliament i think it's going to be largely continuation of what we saw last year i mean last
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year um between uh parliament opening up and summer they passed one bill i'm pulling aside
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supply bills you know the kind of stuff that finances you know keeps the lights on keeps
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people paid uh they um out of like substance bills they passed one bill in the spring and
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one bill in the fall i've i've never seen that you know that week a legislative record like it's
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it's almost stupefying maybe he should call a meeting of european heads of state and uh
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somewhere in greenland that's but that's the kind of thing i think we will see from him
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because it's the kind of thing he doesn't need parliament you know a competent parliamentary
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country management to do. You can announce meetings or announce the tours and give speeches and get
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global audiences. So he's probably going to play to his strength. We're going to hear a lot of
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foreign policy and trade policy and very little, I think, getting gun in parliament.
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To be honest, Yaroslav, if I expected anybody to show up in Greenland and make a speech,
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it wouldn't be Mr. Carney. It would be Mr. Trump. But we'll see how that whole thing develops.
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We are out of time. Did you want to comment on that before we say farewell?
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Well, Greenland is quickly eclipsing everything else as the issue.
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It's certainly eclipsing the Canada-U.S. trade negotiations or trade relationship.
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Unfortunately, I think it's taking the spotlight away from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.
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We're probably going to hear a whole heck of a lot more about it in the coming months.
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It's the darndest thing that that speech, whether it was a good speech or a poorly written one,
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was all about the United States walking away from the so-called rules-based order.
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There was no mention of the fact that Russia and China walked away from it about 30 years ago.
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So I do find that when we're talking about that speech that he made in Davos,
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Yaroslav, I think you're coming to town for the convention.
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And thank you for taking the time to talk with me this evening.
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Always a pleasure, Nigel, and I look forward to seeing you in Calgary.