In the wake of an ISIS suspect being arrested in Canada, many are asking: How could a terrorist slip through Canada s immigration screening test? In this episode, Senior Fellow and National Security Project Lead at the McDonnell-Gloria Institute, Alex Dale, and I discuss the security implications of Canada's vastly enlarged immigration program.
00:04:23.600I mean, you know, they're an ongoing challenge and you need to evolve with the circumstances in the world.
00:04:29.080So I pick out a couple of points here about how do you slip through.
00:04:33.000You know, certainly bigger volume, more, you know, people coming in, the greater likelihood some of them are going to be malign individuals with negative intentions.
00:04:44.840You know, we have a fundamental tension in the system that the system is designed to bring people into the country, not keep people out, right?
00:04:51.020There's economic and social motives, motivations for that.
00:04:54.020And that that part, you know, immediately kind of creates a certain balance in the system about, you know, what are the purposes of screening and the overall endpoint, you know, when you're talking hard numbers and reaching hard numbers, there's a pressure to deliver those hard numbers.
00:05:08.020I think that raises questions about capacity in the system.
00:05:11.440You know, we talk a lot about the growth under the Trudeau government of the public service, you know, and we've seen those same phenomenon, partly at immigration.
00:05:24.020Refugee and Citizenship Canada, IRCC, you know, it's gone up like 34% in terms of the people working there.
00:05:30.640Those people don't primarily work on security, right?
00:05:33.040They work on the processing and integrating security information in as one part.
00:05:38.040CBSA, which is really the pointy end of this, the border security agency, you know, they're doing a lot of the screening.
00:05:45.380So a separate ministry, some real benefits to that, but they are the ones that are looking at various security dimensions, whether that's terrorism, whether that's war criminality, whether that's organized crime, whether that's a criminal record, all the things that would make you what they call inadmissible to Canada.
00:06:03.000So there's a capacity question here, I think.
00:06:06.060CBSA hasn't grown quite as much, and I think there's a fundamental problem talking solely about human resource growth in terms of numbers as opposed to training, knowledge, capabilities.
00:06:16.780I think there's, you know, I've already alluded to it a bit, preparedness of the system, you know, awareness across the immigration process of national security dimensions.
00:06:26.260This has been a general challenge in the public service that in today's world with, you know, poly crisis, multiple threat, however you want to call it, there's new ways you have to think about accomplishing domestic goals even, right, let alone international ones.
00:06:41.000So, Alex, do you think there's just too few people with too many applications to screen?
00:06:49.100I think maybe not always the right people with the right skill set, not the right tools to do that effectively.
00:06:58.680I'd point to two things that, I mean, again, the Canadian government has not been strong on, in my experience.
00:07:04.080One is hiring people with the language skills that are going to make you effective against dealing with the current threat picture.
00:07:11.880So this is people that speak foreign languages, whether that's Spanish, whether that's Arabic, Russian, Mandarin, Chinese, Persian, you know, all the different languages, you know, that, that, that, you know, some of our threat actors are coming from.
00:07:27.000You know, you know, I think in terms of what the intelligence community will call open source intelligence.
00:07:33.560So, I mean, this is using materials that are publicly available, like the video that you speak of, that's, you know, currently causing, you know, that's being brought to light in the case of the ISIS arrest last week.
00:07:45.600You know, you have to be able to find that, you have to be able to identify that, you have to connect it to the individual.
00:07:50.060There's a lot of tools that are out there now.
00:07:52.940I think it's important, you know, that, that, that Canadians be aware of that and be pushing the government to make sure that the analysts who work on this have access to those tools.
00:08:02.880So, you know, quantity isn't always quality.
00:08:04.980I think there is a slight mismeasure between how much immigration has grown, IRCC versus CBSA, the border service.
00:08:12.840You know, the border service is not just people doing intelligence and immigration screening.
00:08:16.900I mean, these are the people who are right at the front lines on the borders.
00:08:20.780And I mean, there is a question, too, for the immigration officers who are IRCC people working at our embassies and admissions abroad, you know, how they're being equipped and positioned to deal with this, too.
00:08:31.160Do they have the intelligence that they need?
00:08:33.060Are they getting that support from across the system?
00:08:36.640So, yeah, I'm a little reluctant to throw in more people at problems all the time.
00:08:40.640I think that, you know, in some cases there is just a basic need.
00:08:43.980We look in the past, you know, at, you know, terrorist cases that have led to catastrophe.
00:08:52.140You know, often say the security services will be following five groups, but it was the sixth group, right, that eluded their net.
00:09:00.120So, you know, those are raw human numbers.
00:09:02.680It takes numbers to process information, to do surveillance, to do all the things that can potentially be important to law enforcement.
00:09:09.020So, but I would caution that this is an issue where we need to be thinking about technology and we need to be thinking about the training, background, and knowledge that the people doing this work have.
00:09:21.040So, as things stand, it's probably, with 400,000, 500,000 people to screen, there is probably a failure rate that doesn't mean the system isn't working.
00:09:34.800It's just that anything, any procedure that is done repetitively, there will be fails.
00:09:40.220I mean, we were talking earlier about the number of people coming in and what kind of a, what would one-tenth of one percent look like.
00:09:49.580It's obviously still quite a number of potential fails there.
00:09:53.720But one of the things that, if I were writing talking points for the liberal government, as they try to defend themselves, now that the Conservatives and the NDP have united to ask for a special meeting on this matter,
00:10:10.000I would say, well, you know, it doesn't happen very often.
00:10:12.720I mean, it's really a pretty peaceful country and everybody's integrating very well.
00:10:17.080Well, then I would say, but then I would, if I were writing for the Conservatives, I would say this stuff happens all the time.
00:10:24.000So, it's, look at the Air India crash, there's 350 people killed there back in 85.
00:10:30.900Look at the lands of the Toronto 18 who are going to bomb the CN Tower and try and storm Parliament and behead people on camera, you know.
00:10:42.140Look at the, we had, there's trouble within the Sikh community, which has been very high profile, the Mississauga event.
00:10:54.180So, let me ask you, as the expert in field here, Alex, should Canadians be concerned?
00:11:02.640Well, I think Canadians should demand that the national security screening, security screening process be as modern, advanced and world-leading.
00:11:10.140We want to be a world leader in immigration, bringing people in.
00:11:14.240And the integrity of the system deeply matters, you know, both for the planned outcomes and for the general trust and confidence that Canadians have in this.
00:11:22.960Look, our immigration system overall is a success.
00:11:26.020I mean, you know, our prosperity, etc.
00:11:28.320I mean, there's very little question that the benefits of immigration are huge.
00:11:33.020You know, we will not see changes in immigration that don't see us bringing in hundreds of thousands of people.
00:11:40.420Now, there's a debate whether half a million is the right number or is it 300,000.
00:11:45.320But I don't think anyone's going to change that political consensus.
00:11:49.040You know, Canada's a rare status pretty much amongst all of our allies that, you know, immigration is not a controversial issue much of the time in this country.
00:11:56.980And we need to work very hard to keep it that way.
00:11:59.780So, you know, in terms of, you know, thinking about this, I mean, you know, like the existence of within these streams of people who allude and have, you know, intentions that are damaging to the Canadian populace.
00:12:15.720Because this is just a function of what goes on in the immigration system.
00:12:19.920In Canada, one thing that worries me, Nigel, it's been very historical here, is we have what I call Canadian exceptionalism.
00:12:27.200We tend to imagine that somehow we're excluded from a lot of the trends that are shaping the rest of the world.
00:12:34.580Partly that's a function of being in North America, protected by three seas, having a generally, you know, very productive partner to the south.
00:12:41.360But, you know, whether you're talking about terrorism, as you mentioned with the examples that you've given, whether you're talking about organized crime, drug trafficking, money laundering, whether you're talking about people, you know, seeking to, you know, who've worked for repressive regimes, you know, flee here and hide war criminals, all these things exist, right?
00:13:05.560And that does need to be accepted. I mean, I don't think it's an indictment of the entire system.
00:13:11.200But I think, you know, we have a general problem in this country across the board in taking national security seriously, somehow thinking, oh, well, the Americans will deal with that, or they face more problems, or this is something in the Middle East, or this is something in Europe.
00:13:25.980I think, you know, as you, you know, your example showed, we've had issues with terrorism over decades.
00:13:34.660I think, frankly, we're doing a better job at understanding that, you know, some of these issues, you know, come.
00:13:40.800And I mean, you know, and let's face it too, right?
00:13:42.760I mean, you know, there's an issue between people eluding the immigration, you know, system, and then there's a question of becoming criminalized and radicalized in Canada after that fact, right?
00:13:53.000I mean, and this happens as well. So, you know, the immigration part, I think, comes down to, in my mind, you know, if you want to maintain the integrity of the system, the trust in the system, you can't deprioritize the national security piece.
00:14:06.600It's specialists. It's about a small number of people. But, you know, how many people were involved in 9-11?
00:14:11.360I mean, how many people does it take to conduct a mass attack event?
00:14:15.800I mean, you know, looking at, you know, a known ISIS member, or at least someone who joined the group had, you know, potentially committed atrocities before coming to Canada, you know, we've seen the mass attacks with machetes, with other things.
00:14:30.280You know, Canada is unfortunately in the same space as many of our partners and allies. That's worrying, but it can also be a source of comfort.
00:14:37.540You know, we've got partners we can work on this with. And I think that's, you know, part of where part of the solution is, in fact.
00:14:43.200You know, I wonder, Alex, sometimes if we, if the RCMP and CSIS are actually too good at it, because if nothing happens, people will start to think that there isn't a problem.
00:14:52.700You mentioned 9-11 a moment ago, and after that happened, everybody knew that it was a huge problem.
00:14:58.080And then I started, at that time, I was still in, before my time in government, so I was paying attention to this through a news lens, but I noticed a number of reports coming through of foiled plots.
00:15:12.020And, of course, they made a headline, page three, for a day.
00:15:53.340Well, Nigel, I mean, we, we don't look like a credible partner with our allies on so many issues right now.
00:15:59.280So, you know, the ability, you know, we've done a very poor job at, at defending, you know, being ready to defend our own territory in the Arctic.
00:16:08.120You know, we're not getting, and we're not showing commitment.
00:16:10.520And again, the Trudeau, Trudeau government is, is, is very much responsible for this, but we're not seeing a strong case from any of the opposition parties about getting a 2% of defense spending, you know, a primary ingredient in, in, in, in, in credibility.
00:16:23.960So, you know, you know, you know, there is death by a thousand cuts, and, and I think, as you're alluding, I mean, it could, might be more than a cut, it could be a full slice, right?
00:16:32.020I mean, so I, I do think we have the added issue, as Canadians will be aware of, but it's very good to put this, is that, you know, in an election year in the United States, we're going to hear a lot of things articulated.
00:16:44.660Americans have a lot of concerns about the border, while many of those relate to the southern border with Mexico, you know, you can be sure, I mean, we've seen it already, that, you know, that also turns attention to the northern border, and what's going on in the northern border.
00:17:00.300And given how important to us, trade, movement, you know, back, you know, whether it's for going to Taylor Swift concerts, or whether it's, you know, sealing the deal on a multi-billion dollar automotive or oil exports, whatever, you know, that relationship is crucial to us.
00:17:17.160So I think, you know, we have to be extra attentive here, not necessarily because we're worse, or we're better, or the problems are more severe, or they're more light, but the politics of this are clearly very, very explosive.
00:17:28.680Well, let me push you on that point a little.
00:17:30.880How damaging would it be to trade across the border if a serious event was perpetrated in the United States by people who were based in Canada, as citizens or landed immigrants, even?
00:17:45.780You know, it would be politically an extremely hot potato.
00:17:49.400You have to keep in mind constantly that from the U.S. perspective, borders are as much a matter of security as about trade, right?
00:17:55.640They certainly have a stronger bias and willingness to disrupt international, like, trade flows into the country if they are, you know, if they see a risk there.
00:18:10.960Whereas Canada is very much pushing more for open border, et cetera.
00:18:13.900So, you know, I think it's a bridge we don't want to cross, to be quite honest.
00:18:20.800Now, again, you know, like, if you talk at the official level, I mean, I think most people understand, I mean, these are shared issues.
00:18:27.620But, you know, there's a general perception that Canada is laxer and has fewer, you know, pointing in tools to deal with this.
00:18:34.820So, you know, I think we need to take it very seriously.
00:18:37.960Now, in your view, how seriously does the government of Canada react to expert advice?
00:18:47.240I'm thinking back to the recently retired experience of CSIS Director David Vigneault,
00:18:55.120who was publicly diminished by the Prime Minister, who more or less said,
00:19:04.800well, you know, I'm paraphrasing the Prime Minister's remarks, but they were to the general effect that it's good that we've got these eager gumshoes,
00:19:14.380but they go overboard sometimes and we have to give everything second thought and check and consider and so forth.