The Cory Morgan Show with guest Clinton Desveaux
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Summary
Justin Trudeau's call for a special election has backfired badly on him, and now he's heading to the polls to face a Conservative government. Cory Morgan takes a look at what that means for the rest of the election, and whether or not it's going to be a good or bad one.
Transcript
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Welcome to the Cory Morgan Show. This is the last one before the full federal election
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hits. It's been a long 30-some day grind since Justin Trudeau felt he'd be able to
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call a sudden election and snatch a majority out of the Canadian electorate before anybody
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really realized what he was doing. It seems to have backfired on him pretty terribly.
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Right now, the election is neck and neck. He's lost what was a considerable lead at the time of
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calling the election and we've seen a number of interesting developments come about. I mean,
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right now, at least as far as polls can go, polls have been absolutely terrible at picking who's
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going to win elections for this last five, six, eight years. So I wouldn't put too much into it,
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but either way, from as far as we can read into that crystal ball, it looks like a really close
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race. We're going to have a minority Conservative Party of Canada government or a minority Liberal
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government. Either way, the chances of a majority don't look very good at all,
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so we'll get to do this all over again probably within a couple of years. The average for a
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minority government in Canada lasts about 18 months. Trudeau warned us about that. He was almost
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threatening it saying, you better give me a majority or we're just going to have to do this again.
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Reality is, I don't think Trudeau is going to make it if he doesn't get a majority. It looks unlikely.
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I mean, how many kicks at the cat are the Liberals going to give this guy? He lost a majority,
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then he has just repeated a minority. If they ever want a majority again, they're going to have to
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change the formula. And the formula thing at the top is that vacuous leader that they've had for some
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years. You know, people enjoyed the fresh air, the changes from Stephen Harper, you know, something a
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little less serious. But I mean, after six years and in such a time of crisis, whether it's from
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international affairs to our economy, to the pandemic, I think most people want to see somebody
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with more brains between their ears than than Justin Trudeau has. So I got a feeling we're not
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this is going to be Trudeau's last election, though he might be Prime Minister for say another year
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after this election closes. But we'll see. It's hard to read a lot into this yet. We are going to be
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doing an election special from the Western Standard headquarters on election night. So make sure to
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tune in on Monday night. Don't listen to that crappy old CBC stuff and CTV stuff. We'll have guests
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we'll have coverage, we'll have interpretation, we'll watch the races that matter. We're not going
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to give you that biased crap with Rosie Barton and the rest of them out there. So as a reminder
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on that, I want to thank our subscribers. Subscriptions have been fantastic. You know,
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buy a membership if you haven't already, check it out, go to westernstandardonline.com,
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check out how to take out a membership. You can do it on a free trial for a little while,
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that come out, the coverage, the news, the opinion. It's a great bundle and package of some good stuff
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there. We've been able to provide it because members have been so great as well. The more
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members that we get, the more advertisers we can get. And I should speak to our sponsor,
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the Canadian Coalition for Firearm Rights. These guys have been sponsoring us for quite a while,
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and they are standing up for a very important cause. Your right to own, enjoy, utilize firearms
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in a safe, responsible manner. We always have. You know, the Liberal governments are constantly
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targeting us. The latest Dave Kneeler reported on, they're studying, coming after now, your duck gun,
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your deer rifle. You know, they go for the low hanging fruit with these assault style firearms they
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were talking about, which didn't mean assault firearms. Those have been illegal since the 70s,
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you know, true military firearms. We couldn't have them. And then they started to say, well,
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we got to go after the ones that look scary, you know, no matter how they may actually perform. Now,
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they're just taking off the veneer and they're starting to examine just disarming us all together.
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So you can't even hunt ducks or shoot, you know, with your .22. There's no stopping and you need to
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stand up. We need to push back. And it takes more than just voting against them. I mean, we saw how
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quickly O'Toole flip-flopped on it as well. We've got to push back. The Canadian Coalition for Firearm
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Rights is doing that. They're taking the government to court on their last legislation.
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They're unapologetically speaking up for your firearm rights. So check them out,
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firearmrights.com and look at why join and they'll lay out why to join, what they're doing for you.
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It's important. All of these rights are important. We're in a period of the world right now where
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rights have been thrown out the window in a mass hysteria to try and battle a virus. How effective
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it's been? I don't know. It's not looking great, to be honest. I mean, we've really pushed and flogged the
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vaccines. We've chased people all over the place. We're ostracizing non-vaccinated people now.
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I get the crap, though. I got to admit, the rabid anti-vaxxers. And yes, guys, you're anti-vaxxers.
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Don't feed me the garbage. I'm a vaccine hesitant. No, when you light your hair on fire,
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just out of the fact that I even mentioned that I got vaccinated willingly, both jabs,
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you're an anti-vaxxer. There are a lot of hesitant people out there, absolutely. And they've got some
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legitimate concerns. But their voices are being overrun by the goofy anti-vaxx crowd. That is a
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minority, but an extremely vocal one out there. These are the ones that were screaming in front
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of hospitals the other day. You see, we had a great demonstration last Sunday in Calgary and all
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across the country. All these people speaking up, good guest speakers, rational cases about why we
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should back off and the restrictions, why individual rights are important, why we can't force medication
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about people who don't want it. And then the next day, a bunch of clowns go sit up outside
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of hospitals and demonstrate and lose all that public goodwill that was gained. Why? Why? Why
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have you guys always got to be nuts? I know the majority of people with concerns about the vaccines
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aren't nuts, but the nuts are dominating the discourse. So if you've got concerns, you've got
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to tell these guys, hey, set your goofiness aside. I mean, I've gone to these protests where they're
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talking about chemtrails and lizard people and all that beautiful stuff. Sideline those people,
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guys, or you're going to get your rights stomped and trampled on. We try to report on the rational
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ones as much as possible. We really do. But until that tipping point of rational ones comes around,
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I'm afraid there's not much going to change. People are standing up and pushing back though.
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The West End pilots, it's interesting, you know, they could be losing their jobs. And now one of the
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unions is finally standing up and saying, Hey, wait a minute, you can't fire all these guys because
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they won't take a forced medication. What if there are side effects? What if there are issues? There's things
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in their pilot agreements that say they can't fly if they have other medical issues going on.
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So this could actually ground them. They're concerned. They're worried. And the union's
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pushing back and they're saying, Whoa, hang on. You can't fire these guys for refusing to take a
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medication. This battle is far from done. We're still sorting things out. The world has gone mad,
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but maybe there's a light at the long-term end of the tunnel. I mean, it's starting to get really
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questionable. You know, Israel led the world in vaccinations in the first jab, in the second jab,
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now they're under their third jab. And guess what? Infections are running wild.
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I still think vaccinations help. I think they're the way out of things, but they're not working
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nearly as well as they were pumped up to be. And we can keep chasing around that remaining 10,
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15% of people who don't want to get vaccinated. It's not going to make a difference, you guys.
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I mean, a hundred percent vaccine rate isn't reasonable. And it seems that with the amount that this
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virus manages to penetrate actually vaccinated people, it's at best just going to mitigate things.
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So let's start looking at living with it, getting realistic. Unfortunately,
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the hysteria is taking over. You know, the pitchforks are out for Kenny. He hasn't been
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leading well through this. There's no getting around that. He hasn't been communicating well.
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If you're going to hide and hope it goes away, it's not going to work. Then other people just set
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the narrative and they're making it look worse and worse. We're in for some nutty times. Anyways,
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I sat with Clinton DeVoe this week from the Halifax there. Talk about the federal election.
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You know, he's been on before. I know he drives some of you a little while, but some of you really
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like him. I mean, the guy drills down the polls. He likes the stats. He gives a different point of
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view. We don't always need an echo chamber. He speaks from a different perspective. And I mean,
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from what I can gather with things, they're mostly just a toss up. I really don't know what's going to
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happen one day. I'm sure when we start our coverage, we're going to start with the hood around and
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talking about what everybody's predictions are. And most of us will probably be wrong,
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but it's going to be interesting to watch with mail-in ballots. We won't get the full results,
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of course, for a few days, but maybe on Monday night, we'll get a good picture of where things
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are going. If we're going to get a new government or not and where it's going to go. So thanks for
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joining and hang on here. And we'll have this chat with Clinton DeVoe from Halifax.
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Okay. Welcome back to the show, Clinton. This is our last one
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before the big event, the Super Bowl for political dorks and nerds like us. The election's coming up on
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this Monday and the polls have been bouncing all over. Maybe we'll start, you're the poll guy,
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with just a bit of a rundown of what you think you've been seeing and what we're looking at now.
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Well, look, over the last 48 hours, the polling numbers have been tightening up.
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Basically, most if not all of the various polling firms have the Liberals either with a four-point lead
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or a tie with the Conservatives. What we're seeing when we look at the regional breakdown in places like
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Ontario, the Liberals have a solid lead right now of about 37-38% of the vote to somewhere around 32%
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for the Conservatives. And what's really problematic for the Conservatives right now, as we've talked
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about on your program for a number of months now, is the vote split issue. Maxine Bernier and his People's
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Party has been climbing in the polls somewhere between 5% and 10%, depending on whichever firm you're looking at.
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So, you know, we're potentially looking at a Liberal-majority government and we're looking at the possibility
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of Conservative members of Parliament in places like Calgary and Edmonton
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and potentially going down to defeat due to vote splits.
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Yeah, well, and something in watching that, there's no doubt that the PPC appeals predominantly
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more to the small-c Conservatives, the individualist types, the Libertarian types, but there have been
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quite a few indications that the PPC is also pulling a surprising degree, actually, out of traditional
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Liberal supporters like the 40- to 50-year-old Housewives, to put it bluntly,
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as well as the Green Party's collapse. I mean, there used to be a lot of, you know,
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naturopaths and anti-vaccination people there. They're pulling a little bit out of that, too.
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So, I mean, there's no doubt they're going to have an impact on a lot of races to a degree,
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but it's going to be kind of hard to tell exactly which ones might have been pulled which way,
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or which might have been cancelled by some Liberal votes.
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Yeah, so your analysis is correct. They are starting to attract a smaller number of voters
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from people like the Greens. My guess is that it's probably related to vaccines and those kinds
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of issues. You know, if you're someone that's in the sort of health issues and natural wellness issues
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and things like that, there are individuals that are concerned about taking a vaccine for a bunch
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of different reasons. But there has been some recent polling and focus group data that's come out over
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the last 96 hours. That seems to indicate three quarters of their vote is essentially Conservative Party supporters,
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and that the other 25% is a mix of Green Party people and, you know, a few disaffected individuals and that kind of thing.
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Yeah, so vote split aside, that was certainly a factor, and it's going to be on Monday night,
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we're really going to see what would happen with that. Another issue that Conservatives have is,
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you know, the way the seat concentration or the support concentration is in winning seats. Like realistically,
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they've got to actually pull a very good number of points ahead of the Liberals in order to actually pull off a win.
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We saw that in the last election. The only upside, perhaps, is that polls tend to under-report Conservative support.
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They're not looking really great coming in, though, at this point, I imagine.
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Yeah, so, you know, that's an interesting point you bring up.
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So one of the things that we don't talk about very much as Canadians is that we do have a similar sort of,
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I guess you could call it a problem, when it comes to popular vote versus, you know, who wins or loses elections.
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It's a similar phenomenon we've seen in the United States in recent years, where, you know,
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the person that wins the electoral college is the person that wins the presidency.
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And we're seeing a similar sort of outcome in Canada, where the person that can win the largest concentration number of seats can
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either win a minority government or, in some cases, a majority government with an incredibly low,
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And so an example of that would have been the 2019 election, where the Conservatives drew 34%
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of the popular vote, the Liberals got 33%, but the Liberals formed a minority government.
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And as you've pointed out, a lot of that has to do with concentration of votes,
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you know, how, how, you know, the critical mass, those kinds of things. So in other words,
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if you get 100% of the vote in a riding in rural Alberta, that doesn't help you gain additional seats
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in the House of Commons, what it does do is it helps you boost your national number.
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So the Conservatives need to find a way to increase their support in regions where they need growth.
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And so that's Ontario, that's British Columbia, you know, that's Quebec, Atlantic Canada,
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and quite frankly, that's even parts of Manitoba, places like the Greater Winnipeg area.
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Yeah, we've got a lot of work ahead of them over the next four days.
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Yeah, we've been seeing that narrative O'Toole strategy. I mean, lately, he's been very,
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he pops up here and there. But for the most part, he's sticking really close to Central Canada,
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particularly, again, Quebec and Ontario. And he's really, I guess, reaching trying to,
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in my view, pander to those Central Canadian votes pretty hard. He made an announcement on
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the daycare recently, you were saying? Yeah, so one of the big news items was
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during the recent leaders debate, the Conservative Party leader, Aaron O'Toole,
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looked over at the leader of the Bloc Québécois, and also made a public announcement to the Premier of
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Quebec, that a Conservative Party of Canada government would send additional money with no
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strings attached to the province of Quebec, that they could use, he's hoping, for daycare.
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Now, the problem with that, of course, as many of your viewers are aware, that are located in
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different parts of Western Canada, is that not all the provinces in Canada have a universal daycare
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program. So, you know, the Conservatives are promising to give more money to a province which
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already has a universal daycare program. And they're saying, we're going to give you more money.
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Meanwhile, you know, provinces that don't have that program are getting nothing from them.
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So it really is a, it's kind of a shell game that they're playing, where they're, they're saying one
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thing in parts of English Canada, and then a different thing inside the province of Quebec.
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And, you know, I don't want to make this an anti-Quebec issue. I mean, this is really a,
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it's a tactical position that they're taking. And I fundamentally disagree with what they're doing.
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But, you know, they've decided that by doing this, that they can make gains. And of course,
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once they made that announcement of no strings attached, you can do with the money, whatever
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you want. The Premier of Quebec came out and endorsed Erin O'Toole. So it sort of puts the
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Conservatives between a rock and a hard place as far as their voter base goes.
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Yeah, I mean, they know they're going to alienate the West as they chase the votes in Central Canada.
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That's more of a sign of a broken system, unfortunately, that forces federal parties to
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have to strategically cherry pick certain regions over others. So I mean,
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And one moment, and to be just to be clear, it's not just a central, it's not just,
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you know, denying these services to Western Canadians, but it's also denying these services
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to voters in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. So it really is like a focus on one specific province
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at the expense of others. So you know, I guess we're going to see how voters react to that over the
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coming days. Yeah. And this is, again, as far as elections go, I would honestly say it's a too
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close to call one in a lot of ways. Like, there's just so many variables we're looking at. Like I
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said, the PPC, this is new with this kind of surge. I mean, I think it capped out because they're kind
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of targeting a protest vote that's going to get as big as it's going to get, but it's clearly going
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to have an impact. And then we have mail-in ballots, which we don't know how many have actually
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been done yet. The advance polls are going really strong or did go very strongly. But we know the mail-in
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ballots tend to favour Liberal candidates, but then as well with polling, as I said earlier,
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it tends to under-report Conservative support. I may as well throw it at you. We'll see on Monday
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night and see how you're doing with it. But have you got a ballpark guess on what you think we're
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going to see on Monday? Yeah. So I actually see a different scenario playing out. I think what you've
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described is generally how it's worked in the past. I do think now though, because of COVID-19,
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that we're going to see a larger number of people dealing with advanced polls and with
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mail-in ballots, and it won't necessarily just be a Liberal Party voter that's going to focus on
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those issues. I do think that there's a genuine concern that goes across all party lines when it
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comes to trying to minimize the possibility of getting contact with COVID and these kinds of issues.
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So I do think we're going to see that get picked up across party lines. I mean, I really think that
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the biggest problem in this campaign is, as I've alluded to many times, for the Conservatives anyways,
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and that's Mr. Bernier. I've argued that he is essentially a form of controlled opposition,
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because every vote that, you know, that people checkmark for him is one less vote for the Conservatives.
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And every vote for Mr. Bernier is essentially a vote for Mr. Trudeau. So, you know, Mr. Bernier's
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had an axe to grind since he lost the leadership in 2017. And if he's successful with the vote split
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issue, he'll get his prize, which is the defeat of the Conservatives. Mr. Trudeau will get his prize,
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which is the possibility of a majority Liberal government. And Mr. O'Toole will lose his prize.
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And that is the chance of becoming Prime Minister.
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Yeah, well, somebody wrote on recently, you know, all these leaders kind of have their own
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different prizes when you're looking at their own perspective. Like, I got a feeling Trudeau is coming
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out of this kind of a loser, no matter how you look at it. I mean, he's kind of, he called this election to
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chase the majority. Now, perhaps he's going to come back with another minority. But I don't think his core
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supporters are going to be too thrilled that we went through this entire exercise to end up right
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back where we started. Well, look, I agree with you. I think that if the Liberal Party
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comes out of this election with fewer seats than what they went in with, it's going to make it
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incredibly difficult for Mr. Trudeau to hang on. I think if he comes out where he is now, or with an
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increased minority government, that he's most likely safe. We saw that in the past with Mr.
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Harper when he'd won multiple minority governments and was able to sort of successfully increase the
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overall support of those minority governments. But you know, I think the real issue in this case,
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and it's one not a lot of people are talking about is that vote split issue. I really believe
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that that can lead to a majority government. We saw that in the 1993, 1997 and 2000 federal elections,
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where in the largest province in Canada, in Ontario, the Liberals were able to sweep the entire province
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due to the vote split issue. And that allowed them to win, you know, successive majority governments.
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So it's a real problem for voters that are of the Conservative Party persuasion.
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And no matter what side you look on things or whatever it is, it's just been very interesting to
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observe because, I mean, as you said, it's been underreported, but it's because there has been
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almost a concerted effort to just pretend the PPC isn't there. And it actually kind of played in
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their favour because they slid under the radar and captured those voters who don't watch the
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mainstream media, who don't care what the mainstream media says. And if the mainstream media had been
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paying attention, you know, maybe they'd been reporting on the PPC candidate who said he could
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breathe in his testicles or things like that. And people might have a little bit of a different
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impression of what they are. But it's been a backfire by pretending they aren't there. It's allowed
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them to really establish themselves. Well, you're right. And so, you know, they do have some strange
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candidates, you know, they have candidates that are talking about some strange practice of semen
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retention. I'm not sure exactly how that works. And then you have other candidates calling for the
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hanging of Canadian politicians. Then you have other candidates and representatives of that party
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throwing rocks and gravel at members of the public at different events. And so you're right. I mean,
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the media has not done a good job of reporting these issues and really sort of putting it out
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there for people to examine and to really think about. And look, I mean, there's some blame to go
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around here as well, not on the violence side of the issues, but when it comes to the vote split
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itself possibilities. You know, the conservatives throughout this campaign now have had three or
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four different positions when it comes to firearms over the course of a 36-day campaign. Last night,
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they did some sort of a flip-flop on the issue of their carbon tax. So now they have, you know,
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two different positions on the carbon tax, multiple positions on the firearms issue.
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So as tempting as it is for conservative voters to want to be angry with the Liberal Party or with Mr.
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Trudeau, in times like this, it's important to look in the mirror and to ask themselves, you know,
00:22:55.600
what could they have done better? And so multiple flip-flops on issues during the campaign has not
00:23:03.200
helped the conservative party cause at all in Canada. In fact, it's helped cast doubt. It's
00:23:10.000
helped depress their vote. It's helped create vote splits and it's been a real problem for them.
00:23:17.280
Yeah. Well, and to be fair, you know, there's some pretty kooky PPC candidates out there. That's what
00:23:21.920
happens when you get 300 people in a rush, but they've got some strong local ones too.
00:23:25.520
And some people with some good sense that are talking good sense and they're capitalizing well
00:23:29.200
on those flip-flops like you talked about. I mean, the firearms owners are very concerned
00:23:33.680
for their ability to retain firearms. You know, people in the West are very concerned about the
00:23:38.640
status of our energy sector. And again, you know, a vote isn't just split by somebody taking votes.
00:23:45.120
It means somebody else shed them. And if the conservatives hadn't alienated those people in
00:23:49.120
the first place, they wouldn't have lost them. Yeah. Well, I would go even a step further than that.
00:23:54.320
The issue in, I would argue, is that it's not like for, so for someone who's like a hardcore
00:23:59.760
libertarian, what you've described is accurate. But I would argue that the bigger problem is when you
00:24:07.120
say, you know, we support a carbon tax and people go, okay, I may or may not agree or disagree with
00:24:13.440
that, but they have a position. The problem is, is in the middle of the campaign, when they then reverse
00:24:19.200
themselves on that publicly stated position and say, well, actually this is now open to interpretation.
00:24:25.600
Same thing with the firearms issue. There's all kinds of people out there that were perhaps willing
00:24:29.600
to consider voting for the conservative party, you know, despite its historical support for firearms
00:24:37.520
related issues. The problem, once again, in this case is that when you take four different positions
00:24:44.000
over the course of a four week campaign, it leaves both conservative and liberal leaning voters sort
00:24:51.520
of wondering what your positions are and what they're going to be in the next 24 hours. And so I've always
00:24:58.080
argued it's important to pick a lane and stick with it rather than jump back and forth, especially in such
00:25:06.240
a short window, like where you have a four week campaign. It's just, you know, that just leads
00:25:11.760
to problems as what we're starting to see develop here over the last 48 hours.
00:25:16.640
Yeah. Well, a few things kill trust faster than flip flops. So we'll wrap it up there, Clinton. I
00:25:22.000
appreciate you joining me. So we're going to see you again on Monday and the time is running short.
00:25:26.880
I don't know if there's going to be any more bombshells between now and then, or if they're just going
00:25:30.000
to be a nose to the grindstone. So thank you for joining me from out there on the East Coast. And I'm
00:25:35.840
looking forward to interpreting the results when they come in soon. Excellent. Well, I'm looking
00:25:39.920
forward to chatting with you again and hearing from your viewers. Right on.