00:00:58.580We've got some interesting topics today.
00:01:00.740Alberta Kool-Aid mans its way into COP28, very much unwelcome by the Canadian federal government,
00:01:08.420and I would say very likely most of the organizers and other delegates at the COP28 confab going on in Dubai.
00:01:17.100Alberta has just smashed through the wall there to pretty much rain on their parade and say, well, there are responsible oil and gas producers in the world.
00:01:28.400Alberta is one. You guys should shove it where the oil comes from and let us do our thing.
00:01:38.280Rachel Notley, Alberta, former Alberta Premier, current NDP leader and opposition leader.
00:01:47.320It's not official yet, but I think everyone is getting the feeling.
00:01:52.940She's probably headed towards the exit pretty soon here.
00:01:56.780We're going to talk about her likely imminent retirement and the potential battle to replace her.
00:02:03.140And speaking of retirement, the latest liberal speaker to take over in the big chair in the House of Commons.
00:02:11.140Well, he's on death watch, I think, at this point.
00:02:15.140The last speaker had to step down for inviting a Waffen SS soldier from the Second World War to be honored in the House of Commons.
00:02:26.140This speaker, engaging in partisan activity and things that is very much not allowed and is frowned upon for someone in the so-called non-partisan role, faces the very real prospect of being essentially impeached in their position and replaced.
00:03:57.840Not very welcome by, I think, most of the COP28 delegates, activists, and particularly the Canadian federal government, right?
00:04:06.360No, I mean, these are anti-oil and gas love-ins.
00:04:10.560We know that even though it's being hosted in Dubai, even though they're being unapologetic about their production,
00:04:16.140And having other areas that produce oil and gas dare to come in and try to say we're not as bad as everybody else is making us out to be not a welcome presence in that crowd.
00:04:28.980I mean, that's the Greta Thunberg highlight of the year.
00:04:31.540That's the Stephen Gill Bowl gathering.
00:05:04.180There is 100 people going on the Alberta delegation, but roughly 75%, maybe even slightly more, are, you know, like they're guys running oil and gas companies or something, and they're going on their own dime.
00:05:18.200So they're not going on the government dime.
00:05:21.280So there's Premier Smith and her husband, although I think he's supposed to be paying his own way.
00:05:28.840But he's listed on the delegation, so he'll have access and whatnot, but he's paying his own way.
00:05:32.720There's some government staffers are going who are obviously paid for by government taxpayers, but I think something like 75% of that list, they're delegates, but they're not being paid for by taxpayers.
00:05:43.080It's good to confirm all the same, yeah, so that's good to know.
00:05:45.520But, I mean, 70,000 of them at this thing, it's just insane.
00:05:49.280I mean, are they going to break the six figures next year?
00:05:54.960Yeah, so, Nigel, the left has been, for lack of a better term, the left.
00:06:01.660But there's, you know, there's been a lot of people actually upset in Alberta that, ah, this delegation is too big.
00:06:07.580Although some of that may have just become, maybe because the number got a bit confused.
00:06:13.020The government list is 100 people, and there's 100 delegates from Alberta, but the vast majority are not going.
00:06:19.200But they tend to be people who never had a problem with the federal government's massive delegation, or if Rachel Notley went to something like this.
00:06:28.260But it's definitely been fuel on the fire of relations between Alberta and the federal government.
00:06:39.260Do you think that, I don't know, has this perhaps worsened relations between the two?
00:06:46.260Because Ottawa sees this as their turf, this is international, Alberta is supposed to stay at home and be quiet.
00:06:50.260Oh, I don't think you could ever make it any worse than what it was a couple of weeks ago before the conference even started.
00:06:56.260I mean, clearly there is no meaningful communication there are, you know, people take the stage
00:07:02.660and they say the right thing, but they're clearly on a collision course, and that's,
00:07:07.060and they've known they were going to be on a collision course for a very long time.
00:07:10.840That's why the Sovereignty Act was the first thing that the Premier did when she was,
00:07:16.980you know, when they opened the session.
00:07:18.240And if there was any appetite for negotiation and compromise, there have been plenty of meetings and occasions, even phone calls, where this could have been initiated and things put on a different track.
00:07:34.780Premier Smith has all kinds of political reasons for taking the stance that she's taking, which is not to say that that's the only reason she's doing it.
00:07:42.440She is a true believer, and I think that she speaks for many in Alberta, when she says
00:07:48.720we have to keep control of our own energy policy, it's ours anyway.
00:07:54.300So, but at the same time, there's lots of reasons why it works well for the federal
00:07:59.120government to have a fight with a scrappy province when there's an election in 22 months
00:08:03.740time, if they can even hang on that long.
00:08:06.340So I don't find the rhetoric at all surprising.
00:08:09.100Well, what I would say, when you were saying, you know, maybe we, do we even need to be
00:08:29.100And so if you don't take the podium and defend what it is that you're doing, you're
00:08:35.100And there's the mercy of these, you know, people who mock you, like the, what is it, the Climate Action Network, presenting them with the dinosaur of the day, fossil of the day.
00:08:46.740I mean, this must take you back to your own days at the CTF, when you drew attention to something by pulling a stunt.
00:09:13.440Well, if Alberta got the Fossil of the Day Award, I mean, that's internationally prestigious.
00:09:18.460Well, I said on my show, she should have done like Tom Green with the Raspberry Awards and actually been the first one to show up and claim it.
00:09:25.360You know, Premier Smith said, thank you very much.
00:09:27.600We do value our fossil fuels and the value they bring to citizens and people.
00:09:52.800This is just posturing these whole affairs in general.
00:09:55.960But I guess, yes, if you leave it uncountered, they'll just carry on.
00:09:59.400The thing is, the Climate Action Network and people like them don't actually have a solution to the very practical problem that Smith is trying to address by defending the province's right to deal with its own energy policy.
00:10:11.640Well, so let's then turn to some developments that took place there.
00:10:15.780So, the Alberta legislature, Smith's request has already invoked the Sovereignty Act against Ottawa's intrusion into Alberta's right to run its own electrical grid.
00:10:26.920um and alberta it was announced i think just before cop 28 started alberta announced we met
00:10:34.740our methane reduction targets three years early that's right i think i'm getting three years
00:10:40.380early a big announcement and i thought well you know this would be an opportunity for gilbo to
00:10:46.840you know you can't be bad cop all day every day everybody has to play good cop once in a once in
00:10:53.760Just to show that you're capable of positivity.
00:10:56.700I mean, even if it's just a show to put on, it's good diplomacy.
00:13:10.100But but I mean, if you do want to poke, you know, if you keep cornering people, then they do start to look to solutions that may seem more radical than than otherwise before.
00:13:20.160He's he's fomenting more independence attitudes than I've ever been able to in 20 years of effort.
00:13:24.880And it's not just what they're doing. It's the way they're doing it, because like methane, unlike carbon dioxide, is a bad thing.
00:13:49.360Methane is a very extreme greenhouse gas, and it's toxic.
00:13:55.160Unless it's used in very intentional, controlled circumstances as a chemical, it's not good.
00:14:01.920So, okay, we want to reduce methane. You know, I'm no tree hog and hippie, but I'm okay with that. You know, as long as it's reasonable and achievable, I'm okay with that. But then Gilbo comes along and says, no, no, no, we're moving the goalposts. And at this point, you know, it's just, it's fanaticism.
00:14:20.720It is pure. You can just see it in this man's eyes. It is a dangerous fanaticism that cares not for human life, but for these utopian ideological goals that is just dangerous.
00:14:34.500It's a fanaticism that is informed by the very real prospect that he does not have as long as another two years to do everything that he thinks he has been mandated and ordained by a higher power to do.
00:14:50.500They could be out of office quite soon, at the max, though, two years.
00:20:28.780You're anticipating the questions too much.
00:20:31.780Before we get there, maybe we'll actually back up to a question I should have asked.
00:20:36.780Before I asked you your question, Nigel, is should she retire?
00:20:40.780Because I think a lot of what you said, Nigel, raises the question.
00:20:44.780Do I think not Rachel Notley can win and be premier again? Highly doubtful. I mean, the UCP could melt and she wins by default. It damn near happened with Jason Kenney. I think if he had not stepped down as leader and successfully ousted, I think it's almost certain she would have been premier here today.
00:21:04.160The right would have split again. And she's likable. She's a likable person. I know some people like to be like, I hate her, and they're going to call her all sorts of nasty words.
00:21:16.260Well, yeah, sure, as a political leader, but as a person, she's warm, and she's personable. She's the happy face on socialism.
00:21:24.240And she connects with people, and she's a good leader for what she's trying to achieve.
00:21:32.020She keeps her party united, marching in the same direction.
00:21:36.720But, yeah, barring a meltdown on the UCP, I don't think she can win.
00:21:39.620But I guess that raises the question, can any NDP leader win?
00:21:43.280I mean, Alberta is a two-party province now, but it is still Alberta.
00:21:47.880And it's difficult to see how, you know, without a perfect storm like happened in 2015,
00:21:53.660divide a conservative vote, all sorts of stuff, should she leave?
00:22:15.480She, you know, it's wear and tear. And I think part of what they were perhaps hoping for a lot
00:22:22.000of the campaign was, of course, trying to create fear of Premier Smith. Daniel Smith's going to
00:22:26.100rend Albert into shreds. She's, you know, crazy. She's going to come in and tear all our institutions
00:22:31.940apart. And while she's certainly stirring up the establishment, Premier Smith hasn't gone beyond
00:22:36.740the pale. She hasn't torn things to their roots or anything like that. So I think the bureaucrats
00:22:42.540that AHS might disagree. They don't claim that, but the electorate in general, I don't think
00:22:46.180they're seeing, you know, the fearsome lunatic that they tried to portray Smith as in the last
00:22:50.800election. So if Premier Smith even just holds the course for three years, it's very, very unlikely
00:22:57.380that the NDP would disrupt her in a further election. As you said, it's a two-party system,
00:23:03.400but it is Alberta still. And I think that she would probably still even do better the next time
00:23:07.880So what Snotley has to be asking herself is, do I want another four years as the leader of the opposition? Perhaps she does, but that's a tough and tiring job.
00:23:16.920It's not a four-year commitment. It's a minimum eight years.
00:23:19.440Another four years, yeah, on top of it.
00:23:21.560If she wants to go, that's an eight-year commitment. And I don't know how old she is, and I don't know how old she is, but she's not a spring chicken anymore.
00:23:29.420I believe she's about 60-61. So not ancient by political measure, but she's been in office for a long time, putting in a lot of service.
00:23:36.700Yeah, and, you know, eventually you've got to be starting to think,
00:23:39.880maybe I just don't quite need this anymore.
00:23:41.660No, I think she's been there since 2001.
00:25:00.840These are good jobs. They pay decent money, they come with prestige, they're paying the ass, but they're fun, you get to make a difference, theoretically.
00:25:12.840There's always no shortage of ambitious politicians to take the job, in most cases.
00:25:18.340We did have a problem finding a Wild Rose leader after the giant floor crossing in 2014.
00:25:23.280That's because it was a shitty job to take.
00:25:24.600Well, yeah, you're taking a sort of like post Mulroney to a poison chalice, I think was the term with the book, you know.
00:25:31.160Yeah, so, but the vast majority of cases, especially, so taking over as leader of the opposition of a very large party, you know, that's been in government, they're going to have no problem.
00:25:40.460So I don't like that argument because it's said by people in every time you're getting a new leader.
00:30:28.680You never realized they had that fire going.
00:30:31.220But I'm just seeing more people who will serve perhaps diligently as a leader of a socialist leaning party, but won't take them over that line of becoming premier.
00:30:41.640I think they will have to either learn to reach outside of their own circles as they're disinclined to do, or there's really got to be a rising star hiding in there that I just can't see right now.
00:30:52.500See, the thing is, I'm going to make the assumption that Rainier Smith aces this and in four years' time is looking very strong.
00:31:00.840You really don't want anybody coming off the back benches who is going to scare people.
00:31:06.360So who could they run that wouldn't just make people instinctively back away from the TV screen or the computer screen?
00:31:13.560you know for me if I'm the NDP my ideal candidate is someone from Calgary
00:31:19.760someone who's got some business cred and you know can't be painted with a brush
00:31:28.800of far-left activism and something like that you know you know the NDP got real
00:31:34.560close with Todd Hirsch from he was chief economist for Alberta Treasury branch I
00:31:41.040I mean, I don't share his politics, but unlike most new Democrats, he at least has a theoretical understanding of economics, understands that there's supply and demand and some very basic things.
00:31:53.540He shares views that are left of center, but he's not crazy.
00:31:57.060Someone like that, comfortable in a Calgary crowd, someone who doesn't make anyone who runs a business or manage people instinctively start packing their bags as soon as they see a new Democrat come by, that would be good.
00:32:10.760But I'm not sure New Democrats would go for it. From what I said before, does this person have long term credit in the party?
00:32:19.160The NDP do not like, they see those people as parachute candidates.
00:32:23.100They want someone who started as a private before they become a general.
00:32:26.780It's similar to Nenshi. You know, he could probably pull it off as a progressive, but could be pragmatic enough.
00:32:33.400But the old union base would not like him because he hasn't paid his dues.
00:32:37.720They would see him as an opportunist coming in.
00:32:39.800So that's what the NDP kind of has to ask itself. Do we want to remain in opposition or do we start looking for somebody a little more pragmatic to take us over the line? And I suspect they're going to stick true. They're very union, very tied to their base right now. Notley was an exception, but she also was holding the reins during a particular lining of the stars of a split conservative vote, a very volatile and sour Alberta electorate.
00:33:03.440As I said, yes, perhaps Premier Smith would pull off something catastrophic in the next three and a half years, but you can't count on that.
00:33:10.760Well, do remember that no Premier since the last, no Conservative Premier in Alberta has even finished a term since Klein in 2004.
00:33:25.360So it is now 19 years. It'll be more than 20 years by the time the next election comes.
00:33:31.380At this moment, looking at Smith and the government, I say, oh, yeah, she's going to finish four years and have a great chance at re-election.
00:33:39.220But remember, at this point, we all said the same thing about Ed Stalmak.
00:33:43.420We all said the same thing about Alison Redford.
00:33:45.280We all said the same thing about Jason Kenney.
00:38:21.820The NDP are quietly trying to decide what to do. They've made some public statements about kicking it out to a committee and stuff. But the NDP are, the Bloc and the Conservatives are already ready to vote non-confidence in them and replace them. The NDP are kind of waiting.
00:38:39.160And remember, it's a minority government, so the opposition parties could remove him.
00:38:43.700And word I'm getting from Ottawa is the Liberals are backing their guy, but not to the wall.
00:38:49.660They're not going to die on this hill.
00:38:51.300The Liberals know he screwed up badly.
00:38:54.580And the Liberals aren't on very solid grounds, but there are speakers right now.
00:38:57.120The last guy resigned for something to do with World War II.
00:40:55.460There's only one reason I want to be speaker.
00:40:57.560That must have been a very awkward conversation when the last speaker departed, having to explain to the family, well, we're going to have to move out of this and back into the two-bedroom apartment, you know, whatever they have.
00:41:13.040People do silly things, and so they have to pay the consequences.
00:41:16.100I don't think he meant any harm, but you don't do that sort of thing.
00:41:18.840You know, if I was the speaker, and I think I'm going to get the axe, I go to that Scotch library and log myself in there until they send a sergeant of arms to peel me out.
00:41:35.020It's a good gig, you know, it's 270 a year, I believe, and you get your accommodations, a lot of prestige.
00:41:40.420I mean, you also have to wrangle those fools in Parliament at times, it's going to be frustrating.
00:41:44.340But he should know better. I mean, that's the cardinal rule of that job. And we know they still might hold partisan things. They were all elected initially. But you just stuff that away and you try. I mean, just to give a plug for somebody local, Nathan Cooper. I mean, talk about an exception. He loves that job. He sticks to the rules.
00:42:00.800It is creepy how much he loves that job.
00:42:02.660And he promotes the office of the speaker fantastically.
00:42:34.960Nixon was like, well, he was house leader.
00:42:37.660He was like, I want to be house leader in the government.
00:42:39.660And, you know, come to, I think we're sitting around beers and go to Cooper.
00:42:43.500He was not drinking a beer because he's Cooper.
00:42:45.860And he's just like, oh, I want to be the speaker.
00:42:48.740And we're like, what do you mean you want me to be the speaker?
00:42:51.600Like, you be speaker if you don't get ministered.
00:42:54.440Like, then it's the next best job, right?
00:42:56.080you want ministry. If you don't get a ministry, you want to be speaker. He's like, the hell with
00:42:59.780being a minister. I want to wear the hell out of those robes and do Robert's Rules of Order every
00:43:04.720day. It is absolutely nuts. And so you get a guy like that who's so very serious about the job and
00:43:13.500understands its role to the point where it's very rare. It's rare. We could use another one of him
00:43:18.940in Ottawa. It would do everybody a favor, but where do you find another? This Fergus guy, I don't know
00:43:22.840how long he's been an MP or weeks. Oh, as an MP. Yeah, he's been a quiet back. But you know,
00:43:28.060I remember, you know, like, after the 2015 election, almost the entire legislature turned
00:43:33.340over the PCs wiped out. The Wild Rose had wiped itself out before crossing. So the Wild Rose came
00:43:38.560in one a bunch of seats, but we were almost all new. Because we replaced floor crossers for the
00:43:43.720most part. And there was a small rump of PCs. But the the MVP had to have a speaker, they had only
00:43:49.900had four MLAs before that, and they all won the cabinet. So they had to pick a brand new MLA,
00:43:56.340Bob Warner, and the guy knew nothing. And it was, I was tough on him, because I knew more about it
00:44:05.240from watching the question period on TV once in a while. It's if you don't know the job,
00:44:10.720you get into a lot of trouble real quick, because it's, you know, it's like, you're the traffic cop,
00:44:16.760Right. But if you've never driven a car before, you don't know, like, you better know the traffic act.
00:44:21.440Yeah, it's going to go bad. And so I don't know how experienced this guy is.
00:44:25.840If I was the opposition, I'd be I'd be going for blood.
00:44:30.220Part of me thinks. Give him a chance, give him one more chance, but put him on like pass a vote of censure or something like spank him, spank him hard.
00:44:40.480But maybe give the guy another chance. I mean, people screw up and I don't see any malice in it.
00:45:39.240Once someone was elected as Speaker, they sat as an independent, technically,
00:45:43.340And the major parties, at least the conservatives, the liberals and labor, they would agree not even to run candidates against that person.
00:45:49.700They would just be the speaker. And so they would have no real partisan attachment.
00:45:54.620And that, I think, had a lot more power. But these guys are elected with parties.
00:45:59.800They're elected by their parties in split partisan votes 99 percent of the time.
00:46:04.480So he already came from the locker room and he's new.