Western Standard - May 27, 2021


The Pipeline. Breaking down Kenney's latest pandemic plan


Episode Stats


Length

49 minutes

Words per minute

154.2828

Word count

7,565

Sentence count

424

Harmful content

Misogyny

5

sentences flagged

Toxicity

5

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

On this episode of The Pipeline, we talk about Jason Kenney's announcement on reopening Alberta's outdoor spaces. We also hear from Wildrose's Nadine Wellwood and Corey Morgan, and hear from Western Standard News Editor Dave Naylor and Publisher Derek Fildebrandt.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:02:00.000 Transcription by CastingWords
00:02:30.000 Thank you.
00:03:00.000 Good afternoon.
00:03:27.900 Today is May 26, 2021. I'm Derek Fildebrandt, publisher of the Western Standard. Thank you
00:03:34.180 very much for joining us today on The Pipeline. Today I'm joined to my right, back in Wildrose
00:03:42.480 Country, is Dave Naylor, news editor of the Western Standard. Welcome back, Dave. Thanks,
00:03:46.540 Derek. Good to be here. You always look better in person. There you go. And Corey Morgan,
00:03:52.580 And as always, crowd favorite, our columnist extraordinaire and host of the Cory Morgan
00:04:01.700 Show.
00:04:02.200 How you doing, Cory?
00:04:02.780 Very good.
00:04:03.480 Thanks. 0.99
00:04:04.260 And coming to us from, I don't know, she might be too paranoid to let people know where they 1.00
00:04:09.100 are.
00:04:09.440 I don't know.
00:04:10.420 We're not going to tell you where people are.
00:04:13.160 Yeah, we're not going to tell people where you're actually at.
00:04:15.120 From an undisclosed location somewhere in Wildrose Country, Nadine Wellwood.
00:04:19.700 How you doing, Nadine?
00:04:20.720 I'm doing great.
00:04:22.580 Well, first we want to begin by thanking all of our members for your generous support.
00:04:28.580 We're very grateful.
00:04:29.580 Again, we're just blown away by the huge increase in sign-ups we've had week over week.
00:04:35.580 If you're not yet a member of the Western Standard, go to westernstandardonline.com
00:04:39.580 membership.
00:04:40.580 Try it free for 15 days and see how bill free media tastes.
00:04:47.580 Today's show is sponsored by the Canadian Coalition for Firearms Rights.
00:04:52.880 Don't forget that nobody works as hard as the CCFR to fight for your ability to use, own, and carry firearms.
00:05:02.700 Check out what the Canadian Coalition for Firearms Rights is doing for you today by going to firearmsrights.ca and click Why Join Us.
00:05:12.700 That's a fun sponsor. I like these guys. They're good.
00:05:17.580 um okay we're going to jump straight into uh today's show uh we're actually holding today's
00:05:23.180 show a little bit later than usual because we wanted to hear uh what alberta premier jason
00:05:28.320 kenney had to say at his news conference on uh reopening alberta if we can call it that today
00:05:34.400 uh so let's just go straight to dave nailer dave you've just unplugged your head from the computer
00:05:40.080 listening to what he has to say i think he's actually still speaking but i think he is still
00:05:43.460 speaking, yes. Not normally too much interesting at this point. You're not allowed to ask questions.
00:05:48.740 They just take it from French CBC, things like that. Give us the brass tacks of the reopening
00:05:56.420 plan. Well, Jason Kenney said the end of this thing is near, and he announced a three-stage
00:06:02.180 reopening plan for Alberta that a lot of people will be very happy to see. Starts on this Friday.
00:06:09.740 Churches will be allowed to be open as of Friday to up to 15% of their fire code capacity.
00:06:16.420 But things really start to kick into action next Tuesday.
00:06:21.280 June 1st, outdoor activities will be allowed to have up to 10 people involved.
00:06:27.660 Retail outlets can have 15% capacity.
00:06:31.960 And hair salons and other personal services can open by appointment only.
00:06:37.180 So I'm sure there's going to be a big lineup there on Tuesday morning trying to get in.
00:06:41.640 I think you should be first.
00:06:42.480 I should be first, yes.
00:06:43.940 After John Tory.
00:06:44.860 After John Tory.
00:06:47.380 Good news for social people.
00:06:50.120 They're going to reopen patios for having a beer.
00:06:53.980 But it is going to be only limited to four people down from six before the recent closures.
00:07:00.020 And, of course, those four people have to be from your household or if you're single, your two best cohorts.
00:07:06.620 We all live together, so we can go to a beer, right?
00:07:09.180 Oh, yeah.
00:07:09.960 Yeah, Dad, we can.
00:07:11.620 Okay.
00:07:12.900 And outdoor sports, up to 10 people.
00:07:16.220 Kenny announced they're going to do the reopening in stages linked to the number of people in the province vaccinated.
00:07:24.940 So if we get, right now, we're at 50% of the population and less than 800 in hospital.
00:07:32.780 So we actually hit that total on May 18th.
00:07:36.280 So they're going to put a two-week grading period between all stage reopenings.
00:07:40.780 So that puts us to the June 1st date.
00:07:44.020 Two weeks from now, if 60% of the population is vaccinated with at least one dose
00:07:50.520 and there's less than 500 people in hospital, we move to stage two.
00:07:56.100 Stage two means you can go to the movie, you can go to the theater, and you can go to the library.
00:08:02.500 If that doesn't suit you, you can go to your gym.
00:08:04.700 is gyms will be reopening.
00:08:07.600 Churches will be allowed one-third of their fire capacity.
00:08:11.060 And restaurants can finally open for indoor service.
00:08:14.060 They can have service for tables of six.
00:08:17.520 And the work-from-home order will be lifted at that point.
00:08:22.180 Shouldn't affect us too much.
00:08:23.880 We've been working from home the whole time.
00:08:25.900 Right.
00:08:27.160 Outdoor gatherings can have up to 20 people.
00:08:30.640 And if we get to stage three in two weeks from there, which would be early July, as long as we have 70% of Albertans having a dose, stage three has no hospital requirements, but then it's all restrictions lifted.
00:08:47.120 So Jason Kenney says he's looking forward to a Calgary Stampede and Edmonton K-Days with full attendance and CFL games in the province will be allowed to have full attendance.
00:08:59.960 The only thing that really stays in is the mandatory isolation requirements.
00:09:07.080 You will be required to isolate for 14 days if you get tested positive.
00:09:13.940 So there's lots of other facts on weddings and funerals and whatnot.
00:09:19.240 Well, I'm mostly just excited for K-Days.
00:09:21.420 Yes, K-Days. 0.96
00:09:23.140 That's what Alberta's all about. 0.92
00:09:24.240 Exactly.
00:09:26.200 So the basic story is online now.
00:09:29.180 the westernstandardonline.com. And as soon as we're done here, I'll be updating it with all
00:09:34.020 the little facts and figures. Excellent. Corey, we've got something. Is it good enough?
00:09:48.820 Well, I mean, not good enough for me. It might be good enough for others, but it is finally
00:09:53.320 something. I mean, something that's been lacking has been a plan. So at least we have a timeline.
00:09:57.820 You know, that's one of the things I think has always made it the most agonizing.
00:10:01.120 Like last January, you know, restaurants were acting up and people were having enough and
00:10:05.960 they were pushing back.
00:10:06.780 So we finally put out a plan.
00:10:08.440 The question is, do we believe them?
00:10:10.580 Because they're really prone to moving goalposts.
00:10:12.640 So, you know, I got a feeling it's going to matter more on what their internal polls say
00:10:16.280 with the UCP than what the actual numbers say if they could decide to pick the next
00:10:21.900 phase and the next phase.
00:10:23.140 But either way, I'll maintain some optimism.
00:10:24.820 it's seeing some light at the end of what's been an agonizingly long tunnel 0.97
00:10:28.440 and hopefully this crap just all ends soon. 0.94
00:10:32.640 Nadine, you know, it's light at the end of the tunnel, as Corey said. 0.99
00:10:36.260 The problem is we keep seeing light at the end of the tunnel
00:10:38.220 and Jason Kenney keeps on caving in again.
00:10:42.300 We're on again, we're off again, we're on again, we're off again.
00:10:44.920 Depending on how you slice it, we're still in the third or fourth lockdown,
00:10:49.800 depending on how you're defining a lockdown here.
00:10:53.140 although the cbc has said we've never had a lockdown but they like to adamantly say that
00:10:57.860 we never actually welded doors shut yeah we didn't shoot people for stepping onto their front lawn
00:11:04.100 well that was probably the next step i suppose um but you know it's light at the end of the tunnel
00:11:09.380 uh but this has been on again off again uh over and over and over uh but i mean covid does appear
00:11:17.940 to be on its way out. Make sure you meet your devices, Nadine. It does appear to be on its way
00:11:26.740 out. Vaccination rates in Alberta are actually relatively high now compared to, you know, Texas
00:11:35.220 and Florida, which opened long before they had anything comparable to our vaccination rates,
00:11:41.620 and they're fine. But with COVID actually on the appearing to be on the way out, assuming we don't
00:11:48.020 have another crazy variant that, you know, isn't affected by vaccines or anything, based on current
00:11:54.340 trends, it looks like we're on our way out. Do you think this plan is believable or how concerned
00:12:00.900 are you that they're going to move the goalposts again? Well, I think this is really a result of
00:12:06.500 public pressure and i think the polls that we posted actually really clearly point to that
00:12:11.780 there is not a lot of support right now for lockdowns and we are getting into summer season
00:12:17.220 and albertans like their summer it's short and they want to be outside and they want to enjoy it
00:12:22.740 so i think kenny was under a lot of pressure to do this um one of the things i really found
00:12:28.020 interesting was he talked a lot about uh the positive results of say texas texas reopened
00:12:35.940 back in March when they only had 14% of the population with the first dose. He has a condition
00:12:42.740 of 50%, then 60%, and then 70% having a first dose. And Texas has had continual drops in numbers
00:12:52.780 and astronomical great results having opened up the door. So I think the goalpost is set
00:13:01.040 really high. There was a lot of what I perceived to be a lot of public pressure putting on people
00:13:07.820 to get their vaccine. And yeah, I'm really curious because he says this is the reopen for summer,
00:13:15.500 but he makes no mention of what happens again in flu season starts in the fall.
00:13:21.620 That is a big piece missed by a lot of the media. I mean, I think we should probably do something on
00:13:27.460 this is that COVID also went down this time last year because it's strongly correlated to flu
00:13:35.980 season. I'm not a virologist, but we pay attention to what smart people say. And people on both sides
00:13:47.160 of the general COVID debate do agree it is tied largely to flu season. When you would normally
00:13:52.060 have a flu, you have a better chance of getting COVID. In fact, are we still at zero flus in
00:13:57.200 two years in Alberta? As far as I know, yeah. Well, it's a miracle. It's a miracle. I think we've had one, just to clarify. Well, one? No, I think you might be right. I did hear something about one flu. Okay. Well, either way, we seem to have eradicated the flu miraculously. So, but this stuff is tied to it. I mean, COVID is not going to be gone by the fall and the winter next year. It's still going to be percolating out there. I think it will largely run its course, at least
00:14:27.180 mute your systems um we've got to let it uh it's gonna run its course here but it's it's uh it will
00:14:35.020 come back up when we hit flu season again uh so i i think that's something definitely worth taking
00:14:39.980 a look at uh well nadine you set us up for a good segue into polls uh the western standard
00:14:48.220 uh has commissioned uh main street research keto maggie to do uh some real number crunching
00:14:55.980 on what Albertans are feeling right now on a lot of topics.
00:15:01.440 We're going to break it up piece by piece,
00:15:03.800 not go through all of it at once.
00:15:06.760 Let's start, even though there's a causal relationship,
00:15:09.580 we'll get into more of the causal stuff after.
00:15:12.120 I think what we should do is start with the high level numbers
00:15:15.140 just on where the parties stand.
00:15:18.280 So we asked a lot of different questions
00:15:20.340 and we've been releasing them.
00:15:22.600 We've actually got more to come probably tomorrow.
00:15:25.980 But in the series of questions we went through where the parties stand, how would people
00:15:30.980 vote if there was an election today?
00:15:32.940 How do they, do they approve or disapprove of the Kennedy government's handling of COVID?
00:15:37.860 And if they disapprove, why do they disapprove?
00:15:40.680 That's a key question that the media, the mainstream media tend not to ask with very
00:15:45.360 much enthusiasm.
00:15:46.360 So we're going to go through these.
00:15:47.580 Let's start with the Alberta numbers.
00:15:52.160 It's, you know, it's not necessarily good news for the NDP or the UCP.
00:15:56.800 The NDP and these numbers were not as high as other polls have shown them.
00:16:00.660 The UCP is still well back of the NDP, but with a definite emergence of a third party
00:16:07.620 in Wild Rose coming on.
00:16:08.860 Dave, why don't you walk us through the provincial horse race numbers?
00:16:12.300 Yeah, holy numbers, Batman.
00:16:14.920 Provincial race, according to the Main Street Research, 35% would vote for the
00:16:21.620 NDP party. 28% would vote for the UCP and 16% for the Wild Rose. Now, I think that's probably
00:16:30.600 the highest rate that they've ever polled at, Derek, which I think shows a lot of support that
00:16:37.300 has been traditionally UCP has gone to the right and the Wild Rose Independence Party. But yeah,
00:16:45.220 The numbers have been lower for the UCP.
00:16:48.920 They've been down in the low 20s.
00:16:52.180 So that's, you know, there's sort of good news and bad news for everybody in that part of the poll. 0.96
00:16:59.700 Good news mainly for the wild rovers.
00:17:02.820 Yeah, it definitely is the highest they've polled so far.
00:17:07.420 We polled, we had Main Street Research poll again back in January.
00:17:13.020 and they were around 9 or 10 percent then which is definitely on the cusp of you're going to
00:17:20.800 probably start to win at least one or two seats around that. 10 percent got the Liberals five
00:17:26.200 seats in 2012, 8 percent got the NDP four seats in 2012 but those parties had been around a long
00:17:33.280 time they knew where to concentrate their resources to try and still get seats even with a relatively
00:17:37.240 small amount of the vote. But at 16, they're definitely in a position to start winning some.
00:17:45.560 Corey, what do you think is driving these numbers? The NDP is not, in these numbers,
00:17:54.680 probably likely to win a majority government. Normally need minimum 38, normally 40% or more
00:17:59.800 to win a majority government in an election. 35 doesn't do it. They would probably win the most
00:18:04.520 seats but they probably don't get to be government regardless uh what do you think is driving the
00:18:08.520 numbers between both uh the ndp and the wild rose the ndp is going to stay flat there's only so many
00:18:15.720 albertans who embrace i mean the the progressive policies that they offer i mean they're frustrated
00:18:21.400 with the ucp uh there's people holding their noses perhaps still supporting the ucp but the ndp
00:18:28.200 that's that base they're going to have and it's going to fluctuate here and there by a few points
00:18:31.560 So what's really worth watching is what's happening on the right side, where the majority of Albertans are.
00:18:36.920 And the UCP has been a disappointment.
00:18:39.320 I mean, we've covered that a lot.
00:18:40.680 You know, when it came to standing up to Ottawa, it's almost universal.
00:18:43.600 People realize that Kenny's been extremely weak on that, which is a very strong area, of course, for the Wildrose Independence Party to grab that support.
00:18:51.740 Democratic reform, same thing.
00:18:53.700 You know, a useless recall bill and things such as that.
00:18:57.300 Paul Hinman, again, don't underestimate that guy.
00:18:59.520 He knows where these pockets of support, these wedge issues are, and he's harvesting them.
00:19:05.160 And, you know, the UCP has got to figure out who they are and where they're going, or they're going to really just see more of this bleeding.
00:19:13.080 And it's not just us predicting the wild rows will win seats.
00:19:16.960 Even the pollster, Kito Maggie, said they're in a position to take several of the rural seats.
00:19:23.140 Yeah.
00:19:24.920 Nadine, it's obviously an extraordinary poll.
00:19:27.740 Alberta has been very much a two-party system since the April 2019 election that saw only two
00:19:37.320 parties return to the Alberta legislature. Alberta's traditionally had one really big
00:19:42.060 party in the legislature. We've never had a minority government before. It's normally got a
00:19:46.740 medium opposition party at most, and then a smattering of very small, sometimes one,
00:19:54.780 two or three seat caucuses from smaller parties. This was very much not in keeping with at least
00:20:00.840 most of Alberta history with a strict two-party system. Poll we're seeing now shows that at least
00:20:08.000 if an election were held today, things could very well change in two years. Maybe Jason Kenney turns
00:20:12.200 it around and everybody's happy again while Rose disappears. But do you think we're, in your view,
00:20:19.520 are how stable is this are we headed towards a multi-party system in alberta again as we
00:20:25.920 traditionally have been or or do you think this is just kind of a flash in the pan of temporary
00:20:32.720 anger no i think we are definitely headed for a multi-party system um the ucp it's you know i
00:20:40.080 agree with corey the ndp is not going to go much higher it's uh it kind of caps itself out for you
00:20:45.680 know on its policies and it's progressive and it's it's moves to the left and the ucp is has just
00:20:52.400 continued to move further to the left i mean jason kenny came out with such strong language
00:20:57.280 on what he was going to do for alberta and challenging ottawa and he has been a very big
00:21:02.640 disappointment for those who just came out gung-ho and fully supported him and he's losing that
00:21:08.560 support so it's not so much that we've got you know the right and the left the ucp is leaving
00:21:14.400 people behind and they are omitting um the wild rose who are truly you know the more conservative
00:21:22.160 um of the ucp voters and you know i i think they're here to stay i don't think they're going
00:21:28.560 anywhere and i think that's good news for alberta because if you think about it um you know wild
00:21:33.600 rose tends to be a lot of rural um area uh residents as well and there is a real difference
00:21:39.680 that's between um urban and rural and this was the rural districts i think a much stronger
00:21:47.200 position in government to have an influence and a say in what happens in this province
00:21:54.400 all right well uh i want to talk about what's driving these numbers uh we've been trying to
00:21:58.880 dance around it to not step on our own toes here but uh dave why don't you walk us through some of
00:22:04.640 these numbers here uh we'll start with albertans opinions on lockdowns and continued restrictions
00:22:11.520 how uh you know where are they uh i know the media say well most albert the vast majority
00:22:18.160 of albertans kenny says the overwhelming majority of albertans support our common sense measures
00:22:22.960 we know you don't like it but they they support what we're doing only a tiny fringe oppose it
00:22:27.840 uh so let's talk about how many we won't get into why people are opposing it yet we're going to save
00:22:32.800 that for the next section here but let's get into uh uh are people supportive of lockdowns right now
00:22:39.520 if i want to comment on that quickly because i think kenny confuses compliance
00:22:44.800 with acceptance okay well let's just go through the numbers first and then we're going to discuss
00:22:49.680 them hold your horses nadine uh no derek is a quick answer not all not all albertans support
00:23:00.160 lockdowns in fact it's almost 50 50 split uh our poll shows uh 52 percent uh support the lockdowns
00:23:08.240 while 45 percent uh are against uh obviously a couple people didn't have an answer but yeah the
00:23:16.240 province is split um a problem mainly along party lines i would think too uh most ucp voters are
00:23:25.760 are against it while the overwhelming number of NDP voters are for it. Also a split in probably a
00:23:34.240 little bit of a split in the rural areas to cities but surprising surprising numbers all around.
00:23:42.240 Yeah okay so we'll break it down a bit more here. First off is yeah 52 percent of Albertans saying
00:23:52.560 they still they support the lockdowns and continued restrictions 45 against the big difference and you
00:23:58.800 can see this on the screen here is the intensity difference between the two sides so uh 52 say
00:24:06.000 they support continued lockdowns um but only 11 are the hardcore pro-lockdown i call them the super
00:24:14.720 karens they uh they're the one so that's 11 who said that uh we should remain locked down with
00:24:21.680 with all the restrictions in place until absolutely every single last person in Alberta is vaccinated.
00:24:28.300 Not something that's even technically possible.
00:24:31.600 That number is down significantly from when we pulled it just a few months ago.
00:24:38.780 You can see kind of the intensity differences there.
00:24:41.220 So on the left side, you're going to see January when we pulled it.
00:24:44.300 So the hardcore Cairns, they're about the same, nine, up a little bit to 11.
00:24:48.700 But the moderate lockdown people, if we can call them that, they're down from 48% to 41.
00:24:56.800 On the other side, though, people opposed to the lockdown, it was only 39% opposed in January.
00:25:04.000 And 12% of the total were people who said, and absolutely everything immediately right now, no restrictions whatsoever.
00:25:11.060 Those are the hardcore anti-lockdown side.
00:25:14.440 that hardcore anti-lockdown side has more than doubled from 12 to 25 percent uh so added together
00:25:21.940 with 20 that's up to 45 that's that's a significant increase in the number of Albertans who say
00:25:27.480 they're opposed to the lockdown over just a few months ago in January um but there's a few other
00:25:34.600 ways we can slice this too uh by party so you'll you'll see here we've got um support or opposition
00:25:43.440 to lockdowns broken out by people who say they're voting for different parties. Unsurprisingly,
00:25:50.400 85% of NDP supporters say they support lockdowns, just 12% opposed.
00:25:57.200 Unsurprisingly, again, actually, I'm surprised there are 12% of Wildrose voters who say they
00:26:01.840 support lockdowns. Their voters are actually the most uniform of any of the parties. Nadine,
00:26:08.400 you got to make sure you shut off your sounds. But they had 88% opposed among Wild Rose voters.
00:26:17.960 Now UCP voters were a bit more divided. You see 40% supporting lockdowns, 55% opposed. So a clear
00:26:25.520 majority of UCP voters are opposed, but they have a significant minority in favor. But it should be
00:26:31.680 kept in mind here. If you look at how people voted last time, then UCP voters in that group
00:26:37.460 voting last time as compared to people who are still with the UCP, they're even more overwhelmingly
00:26:43.480 against lockdowns. So Kito Maggi says that's a key factor in driving support away from the UCP
00:26:50.220 toward Wild Rose. They're bleeding support from both sides towards the NDP who want harder
00:26:57.520 lockdowns and towards Wild Rose, which want to end them. And unsurprisingly, we can add regional
00:27:04.560 dimensions into this uh edmonton broadly i'm sorry there is a good brave minority of you there
00:27:11.600 34 opposed in edmonton uh but 64 in edmonton uh supportive of lockdowns calgary a little more
00:27:20.080 balanced uh 59 in support of lockdowns 38 opposed and i hate the way pollsters do this this is not
00:27:27.840 my language just rest of alberta i think it's condescending i don't like the terminology but
00:27:33.200 i suppose it's the most correct way to come up with it that's just everything outside the two
00:27:36.640 big cities 59 opposed to lockdowns and just 38 uh in support so i think the the big takeaway from this
00:27:48.720 is that albertans are extremely divided over the issue slim majority still in favor but most seem
00:27:54.800 opposed ndp supporters loving lockdowns lock us down long lock us down hard wild rose voters
00:28:02.320 absolutely hate this stuff. They think it's terrible. It should end immediately. And UCP
00:28:08.940 voters, most but not all, think it's time to end the lockdown as well. You've got huge divisions
00:28:16.300 between urban and rural. And it's clearly driving political support to that earlier poll we saw.
00:28:24.380 Nadine, I know you're chomping at the bit.
00:28:26.920 But what's your take on how this is breaking down across parties and across region?
00:28:34.460 Well, again, I think you see a real differentiator between rural and urban.
00:28:38.960 Let's take Edmonton, for example, just out of that equation.
00:28:43.240 And you've got an overwhelming majority of Albertans that do not support lockdowns.
00:28:50.100 And, you know, let's take a look at Jason Kenney and his...
00:28:52.820 I don't know if we could just take Edmonton out of the equation.
00:28:56.920 I didn't know that option was on the test.
00:29:00.940 Wishful thinking, I guess, for some people.
00:29:04.800 You know, and the key here is, let's take a look at Jason Kenney's base.
00:29:08.620 He keeps claiming that his base supports the lockdowns.
00:29:11.800 But is that really what his base is saying?
00:29:14.320 It's not.
00:29:15.220 And he has to take a good hard look and realize that that is indeed not the case.
00:29:21.540 And so is he appealing?
00:29:22.860 Is he trying to appeal to the NDP voter?
00:29:26.000 You know, who's running the show here? That's the question I want to know right now. You know,
00:29:31.600 the people who voted him in don't support these lockdowns. And here we, you know, just coming out
00:29:36.880 of some of the harshest lockdowns we've seen in the country. Corey, how dangerous is this
00:29:47.520 politically for kenny and the ucp um i mean on any issue if albertans are roughly split 50 50
00:29:55.920 you can pick one of them the problem is the most of the people supporting lockdowns they're
00:30:02.560 overwhelmingly ndp the ndp supporters seem to love this uh his former base which is now increasingly
00:30:09.440 pushing wild rose they hate it with the fire of a thousand suns his own remaining voters of which is
00:30:16.880 He's only got 48% in this poll.
00:30:18.960 He's got about 48% of people who voted UCP last time.
00:30:23.080 So, like, slightly less than half of people who voted UCP still say they're there.
00:30:26.340 But even among those remaining UCP voters, a clear majority oppose lockdown, say it should end immediately.
00:30:33.460 How dangerous is this politically for the Premier?
00:30:35.780 It will vary if he keeps up the current course.
00:30:38.760 I mean, those patterns with the NDP, there's a couple of reasons for that.
00:30:41.840 85% support continued lockdowns.
00:30:43.820 Now, I bet you 85% of those NDP supporters have guaranteed income with union jobs.
00:30:48.120 This has been a year-long vacation for them.
00:30:50.580 They've been sitting at home.
00:30:51.500 They haven't missed a mortgage payment.
00:30:52.760 They haven't sweated their pensions.
00:30:54.460 They aren't worrying about losing their houses, their vehicles, their savings.
00:30:58.720 So they're okay with it.
00:31:00.060 They're perfectly fine with it.
00:31:00.960 The other thing is the mentality of progressive people is that government can and will solve
00:31:06.180 everything.
00:31:06.780 The solution to everything is government.
00:31:08.480 And if it's not good enough, get more government.
00:31:10.780 Now, Kenny trying to court those people is pissing in the wind.
00:31:13.820 There's no point. They're not going to support him. So look, you know, if you're looking just
00:31:18.460 on the cold political reality wise, he needs to look at the people. I mean, you saw how it changed
00:31:23.860 from people being virulently opposed to the lockdowns and how that's grown from nine to 25%,
00:31:28.100 I believe. That is probably people now who were hitting the end of their business rope. Like they
00:31:33.620 are, they were hurting before. Now they're on the brink of bankruptcy. That's why it's gotten that
00:31:37.640 much stronger. Like we have to open up now. So if these people go broke, these people get hurt like
00:31:43.600 this, they are never coming back to the UCP under Kenny. I mean, they can't, they won't be able to
00:31:47.960 stomach him. They're losing houses. They're losing businesses. They're losing life savings.
00:31:52.340 So he's got to figure out where his support is. As kind of Nadine was saying, find his base
00:31:56.920 and bloody well cater to it. Quit trying to win the NDP. You're never going to do it. Never.
00:32:04.580 Well, okay. So this is the perfect way to move on to our next one. Is he at least trying to,
00:32:12.160 I mean, Kenny is not a dummy. He understands you can't, the people on screen can't see,
00:32:20.880 but some of our staff, some of our staff in the back just scratched his head and looked at me
00:32:24.320 curiously when I said that. But I do not believe he's a dummy. At least he hasn't, well, at least
00:32:30.820 he's always been a smart political operator until fairly recently. And it's been difficult to try
00:32:35.880 and explain and rationalize what he's doing. Even if you didn't agree with it, you could at least
00:32:40.620 see where he was going with things in his head. So the big thing is, you know, if you can't win
00:32:47.080 over everybody, at least make sure the people you need to win over, your voters or your potential
00:32:51.600 voters are on side. That's not really happening. So we're going to bring up our next poll here.
00:32:58.880 We had Main Street Research ask Albertans. Actually, let me just actually back up for a
00:33:04.860 second. I saw one comment say, I wasn't pulled. This isn't an election. This is not a referendum.
00:33:10.620 we are not bullying every single person because that would take roughly 10 million dollars to do
00:33:15.980 for a single question it's a little outside the western standards budget uh i mean if someone
00:33:22.940 sends us 10 million dollar check we'll hold a referendum on whatever question you want it'll be
00:33:27.020 fun uh no but this is a scientifically conducted poll this is not you know when the western standard
00:33:33.340 or ctv the calgary herald puts something up and says click here those are not scientific polls
00:33:38.140 those are just kind of for fun and for interest. This is you poll Albertans, you spread it out
00:33:44.020 regionally, and you weight it. You weight it by sex. You weight it by age. You weight it by geography
00:33:51.100 to try and get a scientific sampling of the population. They can sometimes be wrong, but
00:33:55.700 more often than not, they're quite right. As long as you're asking good, fair, upfront questions,
00:34:00.720 all of the methodology is on the Western Standards website right now. You can check it out for
00:34:04.600 yourself, download it, see the methodology, see the actual raw data, check it out for yourself.
00:34:10.920 It's pretty solid stuff. We don't always like the answers we get. I mean, 52% of Albertans still
00:34:16.100 support lockdowns. I'd like to see that number a hell of a lot lower. Doesn't mean I might not
00:34:20.720 agree with the number, but I think it's a credible number. So let's just jump into the next here.
00:34:26.060 We asked out, well, we had the pollster, Main Street Research asked Albertans if they approved
00:34:31.200 of the UCP government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. What you see in front here are the
00:34:38.700 results. Actually, there is a slight error on that. That's our fault. You see 66% of Albertans
00:34:46.580 disapproving. The approval actually is not 20. That segment of the soft approval of Kenny is 20%.
00:34:54.880 The dark green UC, that's the hard approval. Do they strongly approve of Kenny? That's
00:35:01.180 nine. So the total approval of the Kenney government's handling of COVID-19 is 29%.
00:35:07.740 The total disapproval is 66%. And of course, there's some people who say other or don't have
00:35:13.540 an answer. But a big part here is the intensity. Of the small number, just 29% that approve of the
00:35:22.000 government's handling, just 9%, single digits, strongly approve of the government's handling.
00:35:28.100 If you look at the disapprove, those who strongly disapprove, well, I don't actually have the number right here, but it is, I think, on its own about 45 to 50%.
00:35:39.480 So the number of people who strongly disapprove is massively larger than the people who strongly approve of the government's handling.
00:35:50.840 Dave, geez, actually, that's kind of the part where you should have given.
00:35:55.400 but why don't you flesh it out a bit more what's driving that well I think it's several things
00:36:05.640 Derek and I think it'll probably be the next slide that helps explain it they're not the people are
00:36:10.240 opposed by very different reasons some people are opposed because it it's too harsh on the economy
00:36:17.480 other people say it's not harsh enough so there's a real dichotomy and in why people are opposed
00:36:23.980 there why people are for it so but it i mean it's you know we've long known that jason kenny's had
00:36:31.420 the worst record of all the premiers for his handling of covet so we've known for a good
00:36:36.700 long time that albertans are very unhappy with the way things have been going and this poll just
00:36:41.900 hammers it home nadine i i was trying you for not meeting your computer again um dave why don't you
00:36:52.860 flesh out the numbers. So this, what you see here, we asked a follow-up question that I've not seen
00:37:01.240 any of the other media ask. They say, you know, they ask, do you approve of the way your premier
00:37:05.220 is handling COVID-19, stuff like that? And Albertans say, no, we don't. We're angry. We're
00:37:09.720 pissed off. And the CBC and the others will turn around and say, see, it's because Jason Kenney,
00:37:15.720 people are disapproving of Jason Kenney because he's not locking down hard enough. He cares too
00:37:20.020 much about the economy, not enough about saving people's lives. And they just kind of leave it
00:37:25.500 there. And there's this very small, tiny fringe over here that are angry because they're nuts 0.98
00:37:31.100 and oppose lockdowns. Well, we wanted to ask people why they are upset. We had a follow-up
00:37:37.080 question. So we asked people who said they approved. We asked why they approved. Most of
00:37:41.840 them were just, mostly UCP voters who said they found the right balance between the economy
00:37:45.400 and health.
00:37:47.700 The really interesting one was the follow-up question to those who said they disapprove.
00:37:52.260 So, Dave, why don't you break down the numbers?
00:37:54.640 You know what, Derek?
00:37:55.240 I'm going to leave it with you.
00:37:56.280 You know more about it than I do, and you're on a roll.
00:37:59.220 Okay.
00:37:59.580 Well, if media doesn't work out, I'm going to go into polling.
00:38:03.220 You're a numbers nerd.
00:38:04.580 You were geeked out about this the whole weekend.
00:38:06.780 Yeah, I do love this stuff.
00:38:08.460 You didn't leave your den the entire three days.
00:38:11.640 Yeah.
00:38:11.920 Okay.
00:38:12.140 So of those who said they disagreed with the government's handling, so this is a number that's going to break the CBC's hearts here.
00:38:23.880 So this is a subset already.
00:38:26.500 These are just people who say they disapprove of the government's handling of COVID-19.
00:38:31.400 Only 36% say that the government focused too much on the economy and not enough on public health.
00:38:38.220 That's essentially the NDP side of things.
00:38:41.640 they're angry at Jason Kenney because he is not locked down hard enough.
00:38:47.400 And then we had an almost equal number, 34 on the polar opposite side, that are upset and they
00:38:55.180 disapprove of the government because Kenney has shut down businesses, outlawed regular activities
00:38:59.320 and violated civil liberties. Another 14% say they are upset with the government for not
00:39:05.360 providing enough support for families and small businesses. I would kind of, I'd posit that those
00:39:12.420 are the soft anti-lockdown folks. They're not as hardcore as the 34% I mentioned before that are
00:39:20.160 angry about shutting everything down. There's another 14% that say the government didn't
00:39:24.400 provide enough support for families and small businesses. And then a fairly sizable 16% who say
00:39:30.300 other and uh i'd be interested to know what that 16 other is i think as i've said before when you
00:39:36.300 have a significant number of people saying other or something else it behooves a pollster trying
00:39:41.580 to figure out what that is but that would be in the next round of polling we should we should
00:39:45.260 try to discover what that is um nadine um as we said uh we're told all the time when people say
00:39:55.500 they disapprove of the government's handling of this that they're only upset because kenny hasn't
00:39:58.860 locked us down hard enough. Do you think that these kinds of numbers are going to be recognized
00:40:07.180 by the government? Do you think actually that numbers like this, that people are angry about
00:40:10.460 these lockdowns, that's dominantly why they're disapproving of the government? Do you think that
00:40:15.420 that is what's driving Kenny's kind of at least announcing some plan today?
00:40:21.820 Well, this actually in my opinion goes to the exact opposite. This is what's driving
00:40:28.460 kenny's numbers down all over the place um people are not supportive of the lockdowns because he's
00:40:34.540 been too harsh actually that's what the data no sorry my question was though uh because these
00:40:40.380 numbers are showing people do not support lockdowns uh tons of people disapprove of the government's
00:40:45.820 handling of this because they're angry about lockdowns do you think numbers like this because
00:40:50.540 surely they've they're pulling too they've got unlimited tax dollars to spend on polling on
00:40:54.300 these kinds of issues. Do you think that these kinds of polling numbers are what's driving
00:40:59.420 the sort of go slow reopening announcement today? Or do you think that's just completely
00:41:05.820 independent of the polls here? Oh, no, it certainly plays into it. They have to know,
00:41:11.740 the polls have been dropping and they have to know the narrative that they've been coming out
00:41:16.060 with has been incorrect. I mean, the polls are proving that. So I think the about face today is
00:41:21.420 about oh look at all the wonderful things we're doing and yes we're getting back to normal and
00:41:26.620 you know giving the power back to the people um i think it's definitely a direct result of what
00:41:33.260 we're seeing uh from this polling data they know it we know it they know it i think one of the
00:41:40.460 commentators just had a good point uh derek that keto maggie also brought up we're only halfway
00:41:46.460 through jason kenney's uh term it's got two years to go to the next election well you know hopefully
00:41:53.660 he's right and this covert thing is going to be all gone by by mid-july will two years from now
00:41:59.420 people have not forgotten what he's done but will they have forgiven him and will all these polls
00:42:05.420 turn around people remember what the ndp was like they decide well i'm not going to stick my vote
00:42:10.860 with a an independent minded party okay i'll give jason one more chance so these numbers are dismal
00:42:17.420 for him but there is there is they're not fatal well cory why don't you speak to that um i mean
00:42:24.860 yeah his overall polling numbers are crap you know we went through that at the top of the polling
00:42:29.500 section here we've seen uh you know the ndp lead but not necessarily headed for majority government 0.93
00:42:35.900 right now. The Wild Rose certainly eating their lunch. Rural Alberta, it's actually a three-way
00:42:40.880 race. It could be anybody's guess how it goes there. But then we've kind of gone through some
00:42:47.960 of the factors that are leading into this. But, you know, Todd Lowen's letter when he resigned
00:42:53.280 as caucus chair before Kenny booted him from caucus, he hardly even touched on COVID. He went
00:42:58.460 through a lot of other things like weakness or perceived weakness in dealing with Ottawa,
00:43:03.220 law, fair deal issues, balance budgets, things like that. If we do have, as Kenny says, the
00:43:10.360 best summer ever, and we get to enjoy a Calgary stampede, and things return to some kind of
00:43:18.160 normalcy this summer, do you think these numbers are going to change? And will people more or less
00:43:24.440 just kind of go back to the mothership? Well, they can change. I mean, that two years is
00:43:28.420 a virtual eternity in politics. A whole lot can change in that period of time. But exactly as you
00:43:34.000 said, there's the underlying issues. He's got to find out who he is and who he's catering to and
00:43:39.200 who his base really is. And the cracks were already forming before COVID hit. I mean, he was
00:43:45.040 kicking the can down the road on the fair deal panel. He was overspending. He was never even
00:43:50.320 talking about democratic reform. We were already getting impatient with what we elected him to do
00:43:55.760 before COVID hit, and that's the base that's fleeing now. As you said, Todd Lowen didn't
00:44:00.400 even mention COVID when it was initial letter. It was all of the other things. Those are what
00:44:04.720 he's going to have to get together and find himself and recover that loss within two years.
00:44:10.880 Can it be done? Sure, it can be, but will he? That's a whole separate question altogether. I don't know.
00:44:18.000 Nadine, any final thoughts from you? I don't think he's going to do it.
00:44:21.600 i think the best thing the ucp can do is find a new leader somebody who can walk like walk the talk
00:44:28.800 and i think kenny has disappointed far too many conservatives in this province and it's not just
00:44:34.560 covid i mean it was happening long before covid like uh corey pointed out and uh you know you've
00:44:40.560 got just way too much i think to recover from and i'll know that keto actually talks about the polls
00:44:47.280 and it's very unlikely when you see this kind of shift happen in the polls that it shifts
00:44:54.160 back so you know from a polling standpoint highly unlikely and just from a personal standpoint the
00:45:02.720 lockdowns have been harsh and i think people will remember how harsh kenny has treated pastors how
00:45:10.400 harsh she has treated business people um those who have legitimate exemptions i don't think
00:45:16.480 people are going to forget this anytime soon. All right. Yeah, no, Kitamegi did say that
00:45:24.000 when you have a move like this, it's quite sticky. Historically in Alberta, the progressive
00:45:29.120 conservatives were able to recover from catastrophically unpopular premiers
00:45:34.240 by dumping the premier. That's how you did it. Ed Stelmack got elected on a big,
00:45:40.400 huge majority government, got unpopular, they whacked him. And they were put in Alison Redford,
00:45:46.400 And she gets in, wins a pretty decent-sized majority government. 0.87
00:45:50.420 She gets unpopular.
00:45:51.860 They whacked her.
00:45:53.520 So they just keep on turning them over.
00:45:55.680 Don Getty, it happened with him, too.
00:45:57.900 Ralph Klein they whacked, but he wasn't unpopular.
00:46:00.080 He kind of stayed too long.
00:46:01.360 Tired of him.
00:46:02.080 The party tired of him internally.
00:46:04.460 But Don Getty was headed for defeat, and they whacked him.
00:46:08.800 I'm watching too much Sopranos lately.
00:46:10.180 It sounds like a Sopranos.
00:46:11.540 Actually, I was just watching The Godfather.
00:46:12.880 I watched one and two over the long weekend.
00:46:14.720 so uh you know you gotta bear with me um so that does seem to be the way that the old progressive
00:46:22.100 conservatives could re rejuvenate themselves in the polls you know then they put prentice in and
00:46:26.680 then well they they i think they played every card by the time they put prentice in so um but
00:46:32.700 that does seem to be the way to rejuvenate it's a big question can they do it with jc kenny there
00:46:37.500 because i know a lot of people are saying leadership review or the caucus caucus if i'm
00:46:42.740 wrong that the time though is is going to be soon because probably by the next month probably by the
00:46:48.960 mid of july he won't have have to take his marching orders from dr dina hinshaw anymore he'll have to
00:46:54.480 take his marching orders just from the cabinet and you know we know where he is with his cabinet at
00:46:58.940 the moment so yeah yeah no i know a lot of uh a lot of viewers say it's time to dump him as leader
00:47:04.240 and replace him as head of the ucp but um if i know him he's not going anywhere no matter what
00:47:09.400 no matter how bad the polls get for the party. I don't see him stepping down. I don't know. I'll
00:47:18.120 bet in a small group, I'll give you odds that he's not going anywhere. But my bet is he's going to
00:47:23.740 lead the UCP into the next provincial election. And I'm not sure that that's a particularly good
00:47:28.360 thing if you're a UCP MLA fighting for your seat against either the NDP or the Wild Rose right now.
00:47:34.940 Okay, well, we're going to wrap it up there. We want to thank all of our members for your
00:47:41.560 generous support. If you're not yet a member of the Western Standard, go to westernstandardonline.com
00:47:45.940 slash membership. Try it free for 15 days. Western Standard refuses to accept a penny
00:47:51.340 of the federal government's media bailout. And we're proud to be here as an independently
00:47:56.600 Western-owned and Western-focused media outlet here for you guys. And don't forget that today's
00:48:03.660 show is sponsored by the Canadian Coalition for Firearms Rights. Nobody fights harder for your
00:48:09.800 firearms rights, other than maybe Corey, than the Canadian Coalition for Firearms Rights. They're
00:48:17.100 a fantastic organization. Go to firearmsrights.ca and click Y. Join us to find out more about why
00:48:24.380 you should become a member and supporter of the CCFRA. Thank you all very much for joining me.
00:48:30.000 Nadine, Dave, Corey. It's been a slice as usual. Stay safe. Have a good day.
00:49:00.000 You