Western Standard - THE PIPELINE： Can Poilievre survive？

00:00:00.000 G'day! Today is April 15th, 2026.

00:00:28.920 I'm Derek Bildebrandt, publisher of the Western Standard, and you're watching The Pipeline.

00:00:33.040 I've got the normal line-up today, former Western Standard opinion editor Nigel Hannaford.

00:00:37.880 What do we mean?

00:00:38.720 Senior Alberta columnist Corey Morgan.

00:00:40.440 Good day.

00:00:41.120 And news editor Dave Naylor.

00:00:43.460 That's me.

00:00:45.440 Well, the courts at the behest of a group of chiefs in Alberta have blocked the Citizens'

00:00:52.660 Initiative petition for Alberta independence.

00:00:56.420 I guess that means it's all over.

00:00:57.820 Everyone just pack up and go home and pay your taxes to Ottawa.

00:01:00.980 That's the end of it. 0.97

00:01:03.680 Can Pir Poliev survive? 1.00

00:01:07.480 What seems to be an endless stream of floor crossers after losing the election. 1.00

00:01:13.300 Mark Carney seeming to have some wind in his sails. 1.00

00:01:16.440 For the first time, there's starting to be probably reasonable speculation about

00:01:21.940 if Pyropolev can stay in the leader's chair until the next election.

00:01:29.360 But a lot of that comes from our first topic,

00:01:34.540 which is Carney scheming his way to a majority government.

00:01:39.800 Dave, it became official just the other day

00:01:44.160 when there was a trifecta of by-elections.

00:01:48.340 they were all, every single one of them

00:01:50.520 was a liberal seat, one of them was

00:01:52.700 the slimmest of liberal seats

00:01:54.840 in the history of Canada, only by

00:01:56.660 one vote, and that was ordered to be redone as a

00:01:58.740 by-election, and

00:01:59.640 trombone, toblerone

00:02:02.440 turbon

00:02:03.580 turbon

00:02:05.720 rusty turbon

00:02:07.360 I'm going with toblerone

00:02:09.560 still sounds French

00:02:11.140 Swiss

00:02:12.500 that's Swiss French

00:02:15.280 Swiss is not a language

00:02:17.300 so it's good or it's like a cafe oh yes yeah so anyway uh yeah the with with with uh the three

00:02:25.680 by-elections it became official but it was very obvious with these by-elections he was going to

00:02:30.220 get it's now official uh that we have a majority government here we do uh macaveli would be proud

00:02:34.940 of uh carney's scheming and uh the last year uh you know he didn't really get the majority though

00:02:42.260 i don't think derek from the by-elections he got it from the floor crossings because as you said

00:02:47.040 all three of the the writings were liberal uh they stayed liberal and then that turban

00:02:54.480 writing you were talking about the the liberal vote gained here's the tory vote stayed home

00:03:00.000 significantly lower than than the recent election but don't yeah but don't forget it was a five

00:03:06.720 floor crossings even if they had just won these three by-elections without the floor crock

00:03:11.440 flow without the floor crossings excuse me they would still have a minority government

00:03:16.080 so he engineered floor crossings you know he sent out people to talk to uh conservative mps identified

00:03:22.480 which ones had no ethics and uh pulled them across the floor and there's rumors that it

00:03:28.560 so there's more to come and that he's still trying to get some some more tories to cross

00:03:33.520 nigel uh i think the timing of of how carney coordinated this in so much as he can coordinate

00:03:41.280 was very smart

00:03:43.120 on his part. If they

00:03:45.440 had the by-elections and

00:03:47.380 then got the floor-crossing, the headline would

00:03:49.400 have been, the floor-crossings

00:03:51.100 gave them the majority, which

00:03:53.200 that's a pretty cynical thing to do.

00:03:55.680 But they got five floor-crossings,

00:03:57.700 four conservatives, one new democrat,

00:03:59.840 before the by-elections, and then they

00:04:01.400 had three by-elections. They didn't pick up a

00:04:03.440 single seat in the by-elections, they just reaffirmed

00:04:05.520 them as liberal. Two slam-dunk

00:04:07.340 liberal seats,

00:04:08.300 one very thin one

00:04:10.740 between the Liberals and the Bloc

00:04:12.020 but all three were Liberal

00:04:13.940 so the headline here was not

00:04:16.840 I fell into the trap

00:04:18.940 a bit, Doc, with Dave

00:04:20.680 they played

00:04:22.860 a nice trick here where all the media

00:04:24.740 were able to report, ah, with these

00:04:26.500 by-elections, they got a majority

00:04:28.900 but if the Liberals had

00:04:30.480 three Liberals had not resigned

00:04:31.860 or one had been forced to have a by-election

00:04:33.720 because it was too close

00:04:34.880 there wouldn't be a majority

00:04:37.540 so i think this was kind of brilliant engineering of the timing in so much as we can assume these

00:04:42.500 things were planned yeah well nobody said mr carney was a fool and clearly this uh this has

00:04:48.980 worked out to make a good story but i mean just to say it again you know mr carney did not win

00:04:54.340 a majority he maneuvered a majority from uh you know going to the the least worthy elements in

00:05:01.460 opposition parties and making an offer that they thought was uh enticing we'll see soon enough i

00:05:07.540 guess what they what was promised to them but uh it's not that was not a win but look you know you

00:05:15.860 do what works when you're in politics and they did what worked so he now however you whether you

00:05:22.660 approve of the way he engineered it or not he has his majority and the thing that we're anxious about

00:05:26.980 now what's he going to do with it one thing that um as a you know as a as a naturally fearful person 0.99

00:05:33.860 when it comes to politics deeply cynical and and anxious about what the crafty bastards are going 0.84

00:05:41.060 to do next you're probably going to one thing that's not changed and won't change until there's 0.96

00:05:46.900 a pro robot is the composition of the committees and what has prevented from mr mr carney from

00:05:52.980 doing his worst in the past year is the fact that the opposition parties dominate the committees.

00:05:58.500 He can't change that until he prorogues parliament. Prorogment doesn't necessarily mean there'll be

00:06:04.580 an election, but it does bring all the legislation that is in the pipeline to a halt, and it all has

00:06:10.500 to be reintroduced. So there is a cost in legislative time if you choose to go that way.

00:06:15.780 so you know things should be worse um cory with the the what i'm not sure what this

00:06:25.940 every political party is a coalition of sorts i i'm not sure you know you know conservatives

00:06:31.060 you got ren tories you got social conservatives you have populists quebec nationalists you know

00:06:36.660 you have all these different you know you got the big business crowd you got all these different

00:06:39.940 factions. I'm not sure what you call the liberals at this point. You've got Gladue, who is at least

00:06:47.280 until a week or so ago, a right-wing pro-life social conservative. And you've got her sitting

00:06:52.880 in the same caucus as Stephen Gilbeau and what's-or-nots who crossed the floor from the NDP,

00:06:58.460 the MP from Nunavut. I can't recall her name. You've got extreme left-wingers, and I don't think

00:07:04.680 the conservatives actually have the extreme right-wingers, but certainly not many. But someone

00:07:09.420 who at least had a pretty solid conservative track record, even a social conservative,

00:07:13.420 which just doesn't endear you with your own party's leadership in the conservative

00:07:17.340 party. Now, I know when Glenn crossed the floor and

00:07:20.860 she was asked about her pretty solid pro-life voting record, she says, oh, I've always been pro-choice.

00:07:25.860 What are you talking about? As if, like, her entire political career never existed.

00:07:29.400 But how the hell does Carney hold

00:07:33.720 something together that spans

00:07:36.580 from Stephen

00:07:38.400 Gilbeau to

00:07:39.960 Marilyn Gladden.

00:07:42.060 Because that's virtually the entire Canadian political 1.00

00:07:44.360 spectrum. This is the coalition of the weasels.

00:07:46.400 The opportunists. I mean, he's brought

00:07:48.300 them in clearly because he's offered

00:07:49.780 something more than they

00:07:52.360 were getting in opposition seats.

00:07:54.460 Which is a pretty healthy compensation

00:07:55.940 as it sits. So

00:07:58.140 he's got a bit of a juggling act though

00:08:00.240 because it also shows their loyalty is questionable

00:08:02.360 to their own principles,

00:08:04.220 to their ideologies.

00:08:05.360 and they won't hesitate to turn on him if it doesn't serve their purposes either.

00:08:11.840 So he's going to be juggling the favors he offered, whatever they may be.

00:08:16.100 And, you know, we can, oh, they're not allowed to do that.

00:08:17.960 We know there's been something been put forth one way or another.

00:08:21.480 That's the nature of it.

00:08:22.160 And hey, conservatives have done it too.

00:08:24.400 But he's not going to have the easiest caucus to manage.

00:08:28.540 I mean, they proved me wrong.

00:08:30.800 I figured he was going to go for a spring election to get a larger majority

00:08:33.380 rather than having this piecemeal sort of thing that's shaky.

00:08:37.460 But if he brings in, as we suspect in Estonia to look,

00:08:40.100 a few more on top of that, gives himself a five- or six-seat buffer,

00:08:43.820 he's got the majority he wants.

00:08:46.580 But right now, I'd still say it's a fragile one.

00:08:48.560 Like, these are not strong people he's brought in, in principle. 1.00

00:08:53.680 And the Gilboes.

00:08:54.600 I mean, whatever Gilboe might be, he's loyal to his ideology.

00:08:58.680 I mean, he quit cabinet based on his own personal principles.

00:09:02.240 If he were to cross the floor, it would be for something that he's not really going to benefit from, like going to the Greens.

00:09:06.340 Yeah, and he might not put up much longer with a Gladue next to him in caucus.

00:09:10.180 And there's a few other Liberals that way, or likewise with, you know, pulling in from some of the left. 0.99

00:09:15.620 Gladue has got to be better to sit by than Elizabeth May, though, surely. 0.97

00:09:18.920 Yeah, well, you know, one's crazy and one's just an opportunist, I guess.

00:09:23.760 But by hook or by crook, as Nigel said, that's the way the game goes.

00:09:27.880 He played with the rules you got, and he got himself a majority.

00:09:30.580 But it doesn't mean he's got necessarily a straightforward path ahead of him yet.

00:09:35.680 He's got a heck of a lot more power and authority now than he did a week ago.

00:09:39.880 But he's going to have to get a few more, I think.

00:09:42.980 The other thing he's going to have to look for is what's he going to do for the loyal liberals who've been there all the time and now suddenly see the new boys.

00:09:49.240 Well, yeah, we're going to end up with a cabinet of like, you know, 120 people or something.

00:09:53.640 Well, Nigel, perhaps I put it incorrectly to Corey, talking about the ideological divide, because we have in the Trudeau era, and to an extent beginning in maybe with the Stéphane Dion era going back, considered the Liberals to be a more ideological party, really ramped up under Justin Trudeau.

00:10:16.680 but the liberals have always fashioned themselves

00:10:19.600 they always called themselves

00:10:21.780 the centrist party

00:10:23.040 even if they were the center left party

00:10:25.360 and happy to be pushed by the left wing NDP

00:10:27.640 but they've always fashioned themselves

00:10:29.560 the center party

00:10:30.480 and that wasn't even necessarily true

00:10:31.720 they were a brokerage party

00:10:33.740 it was the party of power

00:10:35.120 governing party

00:10:36.420 you could have a kind of moderate

00:10:39.660 conservative-ish guy like John Manley

00:10:42.020 and you'd have

00:10:43.900 Sheila Copson

00:10:45.540 This isn't actually new to the Liberal Party.

00:10:48.360 It just feels new because we haven't had it in a long time.

00:10:51.220 This, I think, might be a return to the traditional Liberal Baroque Rich Party model

00:10:56.060 where they're the party of power.

00:10:58.420 It's not the party necessarily of the left, even if that's the natural drift of it.

00:11:02.980 Well, Derek, I mean, I don't think you should be saying that out loud

00:11:06.460 because people are going to hear that and it's going to be Derek Philbrant,

00:11:10.140 you know, publisher of the Western Standard out there in Calvary,

00:11:13.940 says this is a much more moderate middle of the road uh uh result of what happens it's just that's

00:11:21.540 not the uh the left-wing ideology is no longer the driving force the way it was under justin

00:11:26.820 crudo or stephan dion uh power for power's sake is the driving force and that'll sometimes lead

00:11:33.300 them a bit to the left and sometimes lead them a bit to the right that's sort of i gotta say that

00:11:37.860 remains to be seen i mean so far just based on mr carney's actions to this point it would be

00:11:43.780 very hard to say what sort of a party the liberal party was, because there hasn't really been a

00:11:49.940 result that you can point and say, Mr. Carney did that. But the things that he has tried to do

00:11:56.020 have been screwing Alberta. He's still wedded to the green ideology, which is revolutionary,

00:12:03.940 in my view. And he's picked up a few weak-minded people to help him get there. So is that a party

00:12:12.180 of power or is that just a party of opportunism gladu would agree i mean she she said that for

00:12:17.860 years in opposition uh there were you know major infrastructure projects in our constituency she

00:12:23.780 no one would even pick up the phone on the other end and she says immediately upon becoming a

00:12:28.740 liberal they came to her and said what can we do and she says this is great as if it was a natural

00:12:35.540 and good thing in quebec you generally say that out loud by the way that's they got a whole lot

00:12:43.060 of investment yeah and then she crossed the floor yeah so uh you know in quebec you it's not too

00:12:49.220 uncommon in politics to say out loud vote for us we'll bring home the bacon but in english canada

00:12:55.300 we do do it we're not we're not any really better than quebec but we at least are supposed to feel

00:13:00.180 ashamed about it. We're not supposed to

00:13:01.960 broadcast poor power politics

00:13:04.180 to quite the same extent. 0.99

00:13:07.220 She broadcasted

00:13:08.360 it. She said the quiet part out loud.

00:13:10.860 And so, you know, that is

00:13:12.200 something where you can say, hey, yeah,

00:13:14.160 you know, I might be conservative,

00:13:16.180 but I could bring home the bacon now. And that

00:13:18.160 is just pure raw power politics.

00:13:20.120 Conservatives do it, and liberals do it.

00:13:22.340 You just don't only say it out loud,

00:13:24.000 but the liberals are maybe more naked about

00:13:25.980 doing it, transparent about doing it.

00:13:28.720 Well, it was work, so yeah.

00:13:30.180 you could, you know, maybe right there. That's, uh, I, I,

00:13:34.240 I still see them as a, um, uh, as an ideological party. Um,

00:13:39.720 especially when you get off the economic development into the area that nobody

00:13:43.200 else is really that interested in, which is, um, controlling the internet,

00:13:48.120 controlling what people can do on the internet,

00:13:50.260 wanting to know what people want to do on the internet. Uh,

00:13:53.520 the whole business with the C bills going through there right now with the,

00:13:58.180 redefining HC9

00:14:00.660 with the so-called

00:14:02.780 Border Security Act, Bill C-2

00:14:04.600 where they're looking for warrantless

00:14:06.920 access to metadata

00:14:08.800 held by

00:14:10.100 companies that...

00:14:11.620 Left-wing and right-wing governments do this.

00:14:14.080 They both, or I should say, 0.50

00:14:15.620 left-wing and center-right government,

00:14:18.040 populist-right governments are less likely to.

00:14:20.360 I mean, these things are like George Bush's

00:14:22.620 Patriot Act.

00:14:24.260 Well, it's an abomination, but you know, Harper never did

00:14:26.600 this stuff to harper was there for nearly 10 years and the issue was he you know the issue

00:14:31.880 was there if he wanted it but he did not enter into looking at people's private information

00:14:37.240 this government will do that now we forget about that because we're also focused on the economic

00:14:41.640 development side of things and you know maybe we should be but uh i'm not prepared to just say well

00:14:47.640 this is just a brokerage party and they get business done and you won't know the difference

00:14:51.560 what will happen is that you'll you'll have more money in your pocket well no i i don't think that's

00:14:56.120 what i'm saying i'm saying like similar to say the jean christian government the jean christian

00:15:00.280 government its natural pull of gravity was to the left they are liberals at the end of the day but

00:15:07.560 they were more than anything they care where they had the luxury they went left but when push came

00:15:15.400 to shove they generally chose power which is why once the deficit became a huge issue they stole

00:15:21.160 that from the reform party they adopted it for themselves um they did something that moved to

00:15:26.760 the right i mean jean christian on paper love him hate him mostly hate him but uh he cut spending

00:15:32.760 more than stephen harper ever did more than brian malroney ever did more than uh pierre paulia was

00:15:37.640 promising to do he did it john christian did it because that was the politically smart thing to do

00:15:42.040 and canada was actually going bankrupt at the time i'm astonished to hear you say that because 0.92

00:15:47.640 what he actually did is he passed the damned expenses on down to the provincial government i 0.88

00:15:51.800 always i always disagree with that because uh he cut transfers to the provinces that the federal 0.95

00:15:56.200 government had no business participating in to begin with it was not its jurisdiction

00:16:00.120 yeah but if you said if you if you sat the provinces in and say hey you need to have this

00:16:04.120 great health plan we'll pay you uh sure you know 50 but they had no business doing that money in the

00:16:10.280 in the first place so i'm a bit more there's a difference between then and now then you had

00:16:14.600 people like John Manley who you mentioned

00:16:16.320 and you said that they were

00:16:17.860 a fellow from Saskatchewan

00:16:20.160 Goodale, Ralph Goodale

00:16:21.900 there were those kind of blue liberals in there

00:16:24.240 which you could actually move the party in that direction

00:16:26.740 I don't see that

00:16:27.460 Well now they have Vadoo

00:16:29.520 Excellent

00:16:32.020 Okay

00:16:34.280 So all of this

00:16:37.280 good for the country, bad for the country

00:16:40.600 whatever you think

00:16:41.400 it's probably bad for Pollywood

00:16:44.600 But some of our tried to argue that maybe it's good for Polyev because this gives him four years now.

00:16:53.860 You know, he's not going to be on the razor's edge for an election.

00:16:56.200 This probably gives him four years unless Carney pulls the plug earlier to reset, rebuild, you know, find the next more mature Polyev. 0.63

00:17:07.740 Sure, but it also means he's got a long time on the opposition benches now to wait before he gets to an election.

00:17:17.040 And only one other leader in the history of the Conservative Party of Canada has ever been allowed to contest more than one election.

00:17:25.420 That was Stephen Harper.

00:17:26.440 And that was seen as a contextual victory.

00:17:28.880 You know, he had just merged the parties.

00:17:30.340 The Liberals had had this long, long majority government, brought them down to a minority, and it was seen as within striking distance.

00:17:35.500 Polyev is no longer

00:17:37.840 seen as within striking distance

00:17:39.640 it was a contextual loss

00:17:41.260 in a sense because they were expected to win this

00:17:43.580 super majority government

00:17:45.000 everybody and their dogs including all four of us

00:17:47.780 here had bought into that

00:17:49.580 the Trudeau government was in ashes

00:17:51.940 it was

00:17:53.220 but politically

00:17:55.660 they've been revived 1.00

00:17:56.520 he's been leading floor crossers

00:17:59.000 four from his party, one from the NDP

00:18:00.740 very possibly more could come

00:18:03.520 I think

00:18:04.980 you know uh predictions of his doom have been um a bit premature and still probably are premature

00:18:11.800 but i i think now he's not on death he's not on death row but uh it's no longer a sure thing i

00:18:20.220 think that he does make it to the next election well nothing's ever a sure thing is it i mean

00:18:23.820 your political career you would you would probably be quick to agree with me on that i've what i've

00:18:29.280 observe in the last few days is a it's just kind of the usual media pylon where they everybody wants

00:18:35.400 to be the first to see the end coming for the you know the principal player in the plot which is

00:18:40.280 probably ever in this case oh he's done he's finished now it's all over they're looking there

00:18:45.660 will be more yeah okay fair enough that's the media traditional looking for conflict but let's

00:18:53.400 look a second time who has he lost he has lost four mps who none of us could have named back in

00:19:02.680 october of last year when the first one went absent without leave i mean these people are

00:19:08.440 backbench non-entities uh i doubt that they have a conservative bone in their body they strike me

00:19:15.160 as the sort of people who just gladu uh well she had one but all of a sudden she doesn't so

00:19:23.400 But she was not like a Matt Jenneru, Red Torgy, pretty liberal-ish.

00:19:29.260 She sounded like the real thing.

00:19:31.900 No, I mean, my heart bleached.

00:19:33.720 She wasn't a cabinet material or a senior conservative.

00:19:36.160 No, none of these people were other than a big cabinet material.

00:19:39.200 And nobody who is cabinet material has actually, they haven't left,

00:19:45.000 they have shown no size of disloyalty.

00:19:46.820 So Scheer, Melissa Lansman, Tim Upple, Rob Moore,

00:19:50.940 those guys are all firmly in place.

00:19:52.440 Peter McKay, who would have been

00:19:55.420 a blow to

00:19:57.420 him if he came out and said, well, that's it

00:19:59.300 for Pierre, has not

00:20:01.180 said that.

00:20:03.020 The staff are not quitting. That's another thing

00:20:05.200 most people don't bother to even think about.

00:20:07.020 But if you suddenly see chiefs of staff,

00:20:08.920 communications directors...

00:20:10.280 Well, he did, but not because of that.

00:20:13.260 Well, no, although they rarely do say

00:20:15.020 because of it. We don't really know. He's got a great job.

00:20:18.320 No, I'm talking

00:20:18.660 Katie Merrifield. Oh, Katie Merrifield. 0.91

00:20:20.480 I don't know, okay. I was speaking of Ben Whitfield.

00:20:22.980 Okay, so there's two big ones in comms who have gone.

00:20:25.960 But there's a lot of people.

00:20:30.000 In history, to me, it suggests that defeat does not determine the conservative leader's fate.

00:20:38.180 It's what kind of a defeat it is.

00:20:40.980 What matters more is the scale of the loss, the unity of the caucus.

00:20:45.280 And I don't see these things at issue.

00:20:49.720 And if you get another half a dozen defections, again, you've got to look and say, well, who are

00:20:54.040 these people? And if, when the news comes down that Joe Schmoe has left, you're going to have

00:20:58.520 to go to the internet and say, who was he anyway? And it turns out nobody is going to make a

00:21:04.200 difference. It's not good, but it isn't the disaster that the press are trying to...

00:21:09.560 When Mark Carney had his press conference, one of the reporters on probably CBC, but I don't know, 0.99

00:21:16.280 said if you were mr polyam would you quit i mean what kind of question is that stupid 0.97

00:21:22.680 in your time in ottawa have you been to stornoway yeah nice nice place 0.99

00:21:28.520 four years living there it's not too bad because he pretty much has to quit he wouldn't quit just

00:21:34.280 ah i'm done with the job i'm out here he wouldn't quit for that reason um look i i'm not in the camp

00:21:40.600 trying you know crying but you know i i think the questions are fair now

00:21:46.280 Four is a lot

00:21:47.900 Corey you'll remember

00:21:49.440 Danielle Smith when she was the Wild Rose leader

00:21:52.320 Lost two 0.57

00:21:53.560 Well technically three

00:21:55.660 Well there was a Joe Anglin thing

00:21:57.820 They were going to push him but he jumped first

00:21:59.300 So at least it was perceived as him leaving

00:22:02.100 But he was going to be pushed

00:22:03.240 And then Carrie Toll and Ian Donovan

00:22:06.220 So she on paper lost three

00:22:08.460 But more or less lost two

00:22:09.540 That was a big

00:22:12.620 Wound to her leadership 0.92

00:22:13.920 And then she did after that 0.84

00:22:16.280 make it through a leadership review where she

00:22:18.280 won handedly and a month after

00:22:20.340 that the Wild Rose was a heap

00:22:22.440 of ruin

00:22:23.180 the interesting thing to look at with that was how well 1.00

00:22:26.500 did grabbing all those floor crossers 1.00

00:22:28.540 work for Prentice 1.00

00:22:29.380 in the end not very well because it was too greedy

00:22:32.080 it soured the and if Kearney

00:22:34.140 doesn't play his cards carefully

00:22:35.680 he could eventually actually start it's giving him

00:22:38.280 a stronger caucus but in

00:22:40.280 public support I mean it might 0.97

00:22:42.420 sour more Canadians some of them

00:22:44.240 I know well we talked about the last bit 1.00

00:22:46.060 But on Polyev now, floor crossers, yeah, you're generally going to lose the least principled people. 1.00

00:22:53.680 And that is a reasonable thing for a leader to say, hey, that guy was liberal all along. 1.00

00:22:57.720 Or that guy, you know, Gladue, she just wanted to bring home pork barrel spending.

00:23:01.280 These are opportunists. 1.00

00:23:02.120 They want cabinet spots.

00:23:04.280 That's a very reasonable thing for the leader to say from who's kind of the jilted leader to say.

00:23:09.240 but when the numbers start racking up like this

00:23:13.460 even your supporters in caucus are going to start to look around even if they love you like you're

00:23:20.300 the guy we want to back you so your own supporters in caucus eventually start to look around say

00:23:26.140 this thing's starting to fall apart and he's got his work cut out for him like it's as you said

00:23:32.060 he's not on death row yet but he's on watch now we're starting to work towards it if he doesn't

00:23:36.940 find a way to revitalize show strength show that there's a future like this is a setback but now

00:23:43.100 we're moving forward again something does have to change though whatever it might be and i i think

00:23:49.180 it eludes a lot of us but there's a whole lot of you know we're conservative we tend to like them

00:23:53.500 but people don't bloody like him and i i like him yeah you know there's aspects that can be improved

00:24:00.620 and so on but somehow he's got to endear himself to people and i don't know how he can do it to be

00:24:06.220 To be honest, I'm not exactly a social butterfly myself.

00:24:09.920 There's a lot of this.

00:24:10.980 I feel like he's almost a bystander.

00:24:12.860 I'm not sure how much he can actually do about this, Dave.

00:24:15.920 A lot of the people who have crossed have just been in opposition for a while now,

00:24:21.260 expecting every time, hey, we're going to take down Trudeau.

00:24:23.760 We're going to take down Trudeau.

00:24:25.040 Last time it was we're going to form possibly the biggest supermajority government in Canadian history.

00:24:30.400 We have this in the bag.

00:24:31.880 We're all measuring the drapes for 24 Sussex.

00:24:34.300 and then

00:24:35.680 on their face, Carney comes back

00:24:38.540 and somehow the Liberals have this

00:24:40.180 miracle revival. Elbows up!

00:24:42.940 Yeah, and

00:24:43.820 you know, it comes with this

00:24:46.500 X factor, this totally external factor

00:24:48.660 comes in and changes it, and

00:24:50.500 in a sense, Carney now

00:24:52.500 seems to have control of events.

00:24:55.100 He can go to

00:24:56.200 MPs,

00:24:57.720 you know, maybe or otherwise loyal conservatives

00:25:00.600 just say, you've got to be tired of sitting over there.

00:25:02.760 just come over here. It's going to be the parties are better. You get to sit on the good side of

00:25:07.660 the house. You're not in the cheap seats anymore. It feels like events, to some extent, are just no

00:25:12.740 longer in Polyev's hands, and he is a spectator. We've got to keep in mind, though, that things

00:25:18.580 aren't going great in this country at the moment. He can have his majority, but he's still got a

00:25:22.720 huge problem with immigration. He's still got a huge problem with the economy going in at the

00:25:27.080 toilet, unemployment, all these real world issues, I think we'll start to catch up to them.

00:25:33.880 And as you mentioned, Derek, you know, the Tories had a 20 to 25 point lead going into the last

00:25:39.200 election. So they're trailing now, it seems, by about 10 points. So I think the worst thing they

00:25:44.700 could do is panic and try and remove Polly. He's just got to work harder and come across as more

00:25:53.900 measured more statesmanlike like he did that uh uh speech in europe and uh in london and berlin

00:26:02.220 and and keep doing the things he's doing people are still with him the fundraising was a record

00:26:07.180 48 million dollars in 2025 like that's eight months after the election they're still pulling

00:26:13.180 in the money so you know we'll we'll see what the first quarter results are but uh

00:26:19.100 And at the moment, I think people are with them, too.

00:26:23.860 Yeah, but within it, remember, the caucus is a different beast than the members or even the voters.

00:26:30.260 The caucus, these are people who are literally away from home, isolated, sitting in an apartment or a hotel, and they're living and breathing this stuff every day. 0.95

00:26:39.260 And being in opposition sucks. 0.98

00:26:41.620 Being in opposition for three or four terms really, really sucks. 0.99

00:26:47.140 And the leader of the opposition doesn't have, he's got a couple of sticks to discipline with, but he doesn't have that many carrots. The best he can offer is you can be the critic. So you get to make fun of the minister in question period, you know, every week or so. That's not a big carrot. 0.86

00:27:06.780 um the prime minister has all the carrots here the prime minister's job is more difficult in

00:27:13.620 some senses but it's a lot easier in other senses that he can reward he can punish a lot easier than

00:27:18.660 the leader of the opposition can and they've lost their boogeyman in justin trudeau canadians for

00:27:24.880 whatever reason have decided to give mark carney uh a lot of grace right now and and they're they're

00:27:32.420 They're giving him this long extended honeymoon and chance.

00:27:35.000 And he is at least not pissing them off the way that Justin Trudeau did. 1.00

00:27:39.660 So they've lost their rallying cry every day of this buffoonish idiot on the other side. 0.99

00:27:44.840 Now it's this quiet banker who at least comes across as an adult, even if he's still pretty far out there. 1.00

00:27:53.640 They've lost that rallying cry.

00:27:56.220 It's now everyone in the opposition benches.

00:27:58.680 It's another three and a half years of this.

00:28:01.440 Do you really want to do this for three and a half years

00:28:03.620 That's going to be hard

00:28:06.060 To hold together

00:28:06.880 And I think if he loses a few more

00:28:08.980 I don't think he hangs on at that point

00:28:11.240 Time will tell

00:28:13.660 Depends who he loses doesn't it

00:28:15.960 Well

00:28:18.480 Yeah 0.62

00:28:20.220 If Melissa Lansman takes a walk

00:28:23.200 Uh oh

00:28:24.480 What's going on something's gone wrong

00:28:26.740 But he'll say she's a Toronto Red Torque

00:28:29.240 That's what he'll say

00:28:30.080 and you can say that so many times

00:28:32.420 but when you lose too many

00:28:33.980 eventually that wears thin

00:28:35.300 and even your allies in caucus will say

00:28:37.280 it's been a slice boss

00:28:39.020 whatever he would say

00:28:41.500 the fact is that she stood beside him

00:28:43.120 in question theory for a couple years now

00:28:45.760 and clearly she is an important part

00:28:48.640 of the party apparatus

00:28:51.060 and represents a constituency

00:28:52.420 if she deserted him

00:28:54.420 that would be a blow

00:28:56.840 no question about it

00:28:57.820 There are others of whom you could say the same thing for different reasons.

00:29:02.040 But right now, we're just dealing with the...

00:29:04.920 But it's a lot of them.

00:29:06.080 It's a lot of them.

00:29:07.100 All right.

00:29:09.680 So, some Alberta chiefs were in court.

00:29:15.860 They filed an injunction and were successful in blocking the continued collection of signatures

00:29:22.700 for the Citizens Initiative petition for a referendum on Alberta independence.

00:29:27.820 uh it's a weird thing to say people aren't allowed to go out and collect there are allowed

00:29:32.460 the what's been so there's been a stay it is weird this whole thing and a stay on the chief

00:29:40.700 electoral officer starting the process of verification and moving further so the judge

00:29:46.320 said you guys can carry on your deadlines remain the same you can keep getting signatures but the

00:29:52.160 process beyond that is now in limbo so if the deadline comes where they can't collect anymore

00:29:59.100 you know may may 7th or whatever that is or second or something uh they'll have all their boxes of

00:30:05.080 signatures and petition forms and everything unless the courts have resolved this they're

00:30:12.560 going to sit on their boxes until they do because the chief electoral officer isn't allowed to further

00:30:16.840 move forward with the process after that point

00:30:19.700 until two other bands get their chance to go in

00:30:23.020 and explain why their needs are more important

00:30:26.660 than allowing Albertans to have a referendum.

00:30:30.120 But it's kind of a kicking the can down the road.

00:30:33.280 Yeah, it's certainly not dead. 0.99

00:30:35.180 Yeah, but it sucks. 0.99

00:30:37.760 Well, I don't know if it sucks a little wind. 0.97

00:30:39.040 I think it's kind of inspired, actually,

00:30:40.420 the ones who are already active in this thing.

00:30:42.500 And didn't the judge say that they would rule on it

00:30:44.900 before the end date anyways?

00:30:46.220 just making a bit of a nothing or a few weeks yeah so in my opinion it's a bit of a nothing

00:30:51.600 for her because it's not it's it's going to be it's going to be dealt with quickly 0.72

00:30:55.900 and still the big question though is then how's she going to rule i mean is she actually going

00:31:02.540 to find that we are allowed to have a referendum on us or or at least her petition or at least

00:31:07.220 so that raises the next question dave which is if the courts somehow decide that this is not allowed

00:31:14.900 does Smith then politically have to put the question on the ballot herself?

00:31:20.840 She's already called nine questions for an October referendum 0.92

00:31:25.360 on a combination of constitutional reform and immigration issues.

00:31:30.140 We've talked about that before.

00:31:34.080 She has, it is the greatest political coalition maintaining

00:31:40.380 I've seen from any leader ever,

00:31:41.920 that she can keep a party together of people who are supporting independence and people who are

00:31:46.940 still federalists. In Quebec, it's kind of the opposite. You have a federalist party and you have

00:31:50.700 the nationalist party and you have left wing and right wing within those parties. In Alberta,

00:31:56.200 you have the left party, you have the right party, and the right party could have federalists and

00:32:00.160 sovereignists in the same party. And doing that on such a fundamental question is the most

00:32:05.560 incredible type roadblock I've ever seen. One reason she's been able to do so, though, is because

00:32:10.720 she's facilitated a process for the people to decide if they want to have this question

00:32:14.260 themselves. It's not the government putting it forward. But if the courts quash this and then

00:32:20.200 she's presented with the option of, like, I think there'd probably be a revolt from the independent 0.97

00:32:26.460 side if they're not allowed their question. But then she has to wear independence a fair bit more

00:32:31.840 if she puts the question on herself. Our reporter, Will Vassar, has been in the courtroom for the

00:32:37.560 for the entire case he thinks and it's just a guess why he says the judge is quite scornful of

00:32:43.880 the arguments by the by the chiefs uh but you never know which way a judge is going to go he could

00:32:50.920 he could make the state permanent and then yeah there's then there's a huge problem uh

00:32:57.080 corey's boys will revolt but i think uh i think at that point smith would see the wise thing

00:33:04.120 and uh and put it on uh put it on the referendum ballot herself uh you know of course i thought 0.72

00:33:10.280 smith would do the right thing with the gas tax and that doesn't work so um okay but then she would 1.00

00:33:16.040 she would face a backlash because there's federalists in her party too they're not all

00:33:20.120 nationalists this is how you frame it i mean if i were sitting in premier smith's shoes and you're

00:33:24.920 in that corner now you've got to get this on but what's your rationale for doing it and i mean if

00:33:30.920 If you approach it and say, look, this is clearly a large part of the province divided.

00:33:35.580 We need resolution.

00:33:36.800 We need the citizens to get the chance to get out there and get that vote.

00:33:40.760 Thomas Lukasik has worked his butt off.

00:33:42.980 Hundreds of thousands of people have demanded this vote, and it would be irresponsible not to allow that to go on to a referendum.

00:33:51.260 What would Thomas Lukasik's vote?

00:33:52.900 Well, you know, because both sides, though, have demanded a referendum on this.

00:33:56.440 and I think

00:33:58.600 as you said she's played a masterful

00:34:00.660 job of riding this

00:34:02.400 thing in the middle and I think 0.99

00:34:04.540 she could continue to do so

00:34:06.120 as long as you're phrasing it that way

00:34:08.380 so it doesn't look like you're necessarily on one side or another

00:34:10.540 and there is truth to that

00:34:11.880 I believe if I was a hardcore federalist

00:34:14.700 who really believed there's only 20 or 30%

00:34:16.680 support I would be

00:34:18.620 sick of this and I'd want to say fine

00:34:20.180 let's do it let's get it out there

00:34:22.260 let's vote get your 20%

00:34:24.380 and then you secessionists

00:34:26.300 can shut the heck up for the next 10 or 20 years because we've gotten that out of our system because

00:34:31.180 if if there is not a referendum this issue is far from dead it's going to be more divisive and

00:34:37.580 problematic than ever for both sides so i i think she could pull it off if she just frames it the

00:34:43.340 right way and there's always the thing you don't don't you you don't all we're asking for is the

00:34:50.300 referendum yes nothing happens all you're doing is saying yes or no i think happens until and she's

00:34:57.340 going to be called a separatist anyways they're already doing that it doesn't matter because

00:35:00.940 well certainly nancy is calling yourself and if we're going to make a charity and how those 0.99

00:35:06.780 but uh you know that's part of it too they've already shot those guns at her it's not like

00:35:10.620 they're going to stop calling her that if she doesn't uh move along with this you know not

00:35:15.980 not strictly related to this, but, you know, certainly adjacent.

00:35:20.520 New, another poll out earlier this week showing the use or late last week

00:35:26.100 showing the UCP with a commanding 17 point lead.

00:35:31.980 It would show a crushing UCP majority.

00:35:35.760 Now the polls on independence do have a majority on the Federalist side.

00:35:40.880 And, you know, the worst polls for independents are mid-20s, the best are in the mid-30s, but it's the minority position. It's a big minority position.

00:35:52.660 Politically, you generally want to be on the side that is in the majority position, and your side is united, not divided.

00:35:59.740 The NDP is in the majority position, and NDP supporters are about 98-99% Federalists.

00:36:07.020 UCP is in the minority position, but a majority of their own supporters.

00:36:10.880 are independent supporters.

00:36:12.400 That's traditionally not a good place to be.

00:36:16.080 This should be the NDP's time.

00:36:18.600 They should be the Federalist Party.

00:36:20.880 They should be dominating the polls, 1.00

00:36:22.760 but they are getting their asses kicked, 0.98

00:36:25.240 even though they're on the majority side of this winning issue, Nigel, 0.99

00:36:29.520 and the UCP is triumphant. 0.98

00:36:32.640 How sad are you if you are Nahidenshi right now? 0.94

00:36:36.240 What explains this? 1.00

00:36:37.880 Well, I'd be asking.

00:36:39.300 i'm not sure i can i mean i would be honest if i were mr nenshi i would be saying what am i doing

00:36:45.060 wrong exactly here uh i'm a pompous blowhard everybody understands that but it didn't stop

00:36:51.300 electing me as mayor um i i won the i won the leadership fair and square i mean the premier

00:37:01.460 made me wait for the opportunity to do it i've shown up at the media like what am i doing wrong

00:37:06.980 here well back to the first thing as an individual he is not particularly credible i said pompous

00:37:13.940 blowhard maybe i was being a little unkind but uh you know he's he's not he's not good putting his

00:37:22.740 point of view across in a credible way that's 100 of his problem uh cory or dave um just you know

00:37:32.260 This should be an issue made in heaven for them.

00:37:34.800 This is emerging as the biggest issue.

00:37:36.920 It's an existential issue.

00:37:38.060 You have to take a position on it.

00:37:40.020 This is not what should the marginal tax rate be or how do we tweak the curriculum or what should the royalties on the oil sands be or something like that.

00:37:48.000 This is a fundamental question that's going to have clear dividing lines.

00:37:53.980 Denchie is on the side.

00:37:55.520 The NDP is on the side of the majority, and they're completely united on it.

00:37:59.560 The UCP is on the side of the minority, and they're completely divided on it.

00:38:04.760 How do you not have the polls completely reversed? 0.99

00:38:08.420 The UCP should be getting its ass handed to it right now.

00:38:10.980 Look, because Ninchy has taken the wrong side, though, on a number of 80-20 issues already, 0.98

00:38:15.620 and that's part of what's dragging him down, too.

00:38:17.840 He's defending keeping porn in school, transitioning children, and having men compete in women's sports.

00:38:23.760 I mean, the NDP trans hang-up, which is a 20% issue, is a loud one.

00:38:29.020 But most people are tired of that, and that's dragging him down. 0.98

00:38:33.840 Yes, he's got a great opportunity to frame himself as Captain Canada

00:38:38.980 and pulling the NDP, but he's acquired a whole bunch of other baggage

00:38:43.740 that still people might say, again, I'll vote against independents

00:38:48.040 in the next referendum, but there's no way I'm voting for that guy

00:38:51.160 who wants to chemically castrate children.

00:38:54.500 And there's many issues like that.

00:38:57.000 the school book ban even though we won't call it a ban uh the women's sports keeping them for women

00:39:04.360 as you've mentioned people albertans are giving the ucp credit for those those issues and especially

00:39:11.240 the economy right the ucp score is uh fairly high in the handling of the economy uh we've just had

00:39:18.120 a fifteen hundred dollar tax cut as the premier keeps informing us uh so yeah it's why was ned

00:39:26.760 nenshi i think he's in a worse shape than beer poly of in terms of career longevity you know

00:39:31.800 the other thing as well people just don't think it's ever going to happen so it's not an issue

00:39:35.240 for them yeah uh i had you know in quebec there's a significant number of people who will vote for

00:39:41.160 the pq but they don't vote for independence because even if they don't want independence 1.00

00:39:47.320 They like it that the PQ is there as the mean son of a bitch. 0.99

00:39:51.280 They're going to stand up for Quebec. 1.00

00:39:53.540 They're the home team.

00:39:54.880 They don't trust the Quebec Liberal Party as a bunch of federal sell-outs.

00:39:58.780 So, you know, you can vote for the party.

00:40:01.640 It's like you're voting for the bad guy.

00:40:03.940 You want him on your team.

00:40:05.200 He's the tough one.

00:40:06.260 So maybe there's some of that, too.

00:40:07.620 And we're at a part where there's still even the non-fully independence-minded people.

00:40:11.700 There is a strong sentiment of anti-Ottawa going on right now.

00:40:15.680 and then she doesn't present himself as a person who's going to stand up to carnage

00:40:20.160 yeah well the mvp is just we ottawa can do no wrong and he said well they'll say oh of course

00:40:26.000 ottawa can do wrong uh but then they can't like really name anything uh you know so it's very

00:40:31.040 theoretical that ottawa could do you know could mess up for them they're just not trusted to not

00:40:36.000 sell out to ottawa keeping yeah and don't forget they've got abby lewis hanging over there yeah

00:40:41.360 he's still coming over their heads right yeah that's gonna keep uh and she's popularity down

00:40:48.960 a bit okay parting shots day the most underreported story of the week the 2026 ugandan chimpanzee war

00:41:01.600 you guys heard of it oh yeah very very interesting story this is a group of 200 chimpanzees

00:41:07.920 who have lived together for decades, decades and decades.

00:41:12.700 And a few years ago, they started to separate into two separate tribes,

00:41:17.220 an eastern and a western.

00:41:19.820 Isn't that ironic?

00:41:21.560 And now, for the last few years, they've been in unbridled war.

00:41:25.480 As soon as they see each other, they're fighting and killing each other.

00:41:28.900 Dozens of chimpanzees have died.

00:41:31.060 A whole bunch of babies have died when their mothers have been involved in fighting.

00:41:35.240 But even the monkeys can't get along. 1.00

00:41:37.260 so what hope is there for us the epstein goat into the chimpanzee yeah anyways i blame the eastern 0.61

00:41:42.940 monkeys yeah google chip ugandan chip fight and it's very interesting stuff i'm just offering

00:41:50.940 low-hanging fruit to premier smith here's an easy win that i think should be a no-brainer

00:41:55.420 the oil prices are for the roof the government is getting a wash in revenue from it

00:42:00.860 pat the gas taxes you're losing the narrative on this you've got the means you're supposed

00:42:06.620 be conservatives if you still believe with when you're getting 700 million dollars per dollar

00:42:12.380 that the energy prices rise on the global market you still have to ding us 10 cents a liter at the

00:42:18.060 pump this is one of the areas too where it's a good cut tax to cut you would know from the

00:42:22.300 taxpayers federation it gives people more stimulus to do things travel spend do other stuff i'm not 0.98

00:42:28.380 sure why premier smith's really dragging her feet on this one just just cut that darn thing and if 0.84

00:42:33.420 if you say you can't afford it, cut some spending 0.98

00:42:35.480 then. I'd like to hear conservatives do that.

00:42:37.220 I wouldn't just say, you know, because Carney cut

00:42:39.440 the, you know, so Carney goes out and he

00:42:41.360 steals, you know, he steals these kind of populist

00:42:43.200 conservative ideas, took it from Polyev.

00:42:46.560 Gilbo was upset

00:42:47.460 enough when the consumer half of the carbon tax

00:42:49.340 was taxed.

00:42:51.580 Now, at least the temporary

00:42:53.140 elimination or cutting of the federal gas tax,

00:42:55.540 I would have just loved to see the look on

00:42:57.220 Stephen Gilbo's face when

00:42:58.780 taxes on fuel

00:43:01.180 are lower than when he came to office.

00:43:03.420 it was done by liberals at least on paper yeah well that was going to be part of my parting shot

00:43:09.980 but at any rate uh the other thing that caught my eye here today was the very um very negative

00:43:18.380 dark comment made to francis widowson by a indigenous woman who said this

00:43:25.740 she's a chief well she's not like former chief i believe yeah former chief but anyway she was

00:43:33.420 indeed a former chief and she expressed that physical harm should come to widowson so that 0.62

00:43:38.540 widowson could understand what it is like you were raped raped and beaten uh so that every

00:43:43.980 so there's actually there's such a much simpler way to get to the put all of this to rest you know 0.64

00:43:49.500 what it is troubles troubles because if there are corpses there that shouldn't be there that

00:43:57.340 settles the matter for me i'll bet you that doesn't happen in our lifetimes

00:44:05.500 well uh the latest news in the jessica yuneev saga i can't get enough of this dude uh or jessica

00:44:12.380 yuneev mr yuneev uh has filed uh legal action against the western senate on four counts of

00:44:19.100 hurting his feelings for misgendering him and things like that with the bc human rights uh

00:44:24.140 commission tribunal uh racket um i i found out uh that i have to apologize to minister

00:44:32.220 mr yuneev uh for assuming this was all just white privilege on his part because it turns out mr

00:44:37.020 yuneev is actually indigenous he is a part of the mmi wgs2 lgtb qqia plus community i guess

00:44:48.460 assume this was white privilege on his part uh the whole time white male privilege but he is

00:44:55.900 part of the alphabet somewhere in there you know somewhere in the alphabet maybe

00:44:59.820 i think all of it so has he paid his dues and actually joined uh i i don't think they'd want

00:45:07.660 him to go to the club i would just love to be at like a band like the band council office

00:45:13.660 and and this dude walks into the dress and says sign me up uh chief jessica

00:45:22.780 i was actually thinking that that should be the new name chief jessica

00:45:28.940 okay so we know more evidence is going to be presented as we big chief add another count to

00:45:34.460 our charges when this gets played again at our at our human rights commission

00:45:39.820 play this clip add another one uh for uh now slugging the mmiwgs2l gtb qqia plus community

00:45:51.280 i want to know who's taking over this show when derrick gets thrown in the slammer

00:45:55.540 by the bc human rights community actually

00:45:58.300 so keep donating to the legal funds everybody yeah yeah yeah uh yeah thank all of you who have

00:46:08.520 donated to our legal fund actually we we did uh we did raise some money for it and also you know

00:46:12.900 that uh shout out to the uh justice center for constitutional freedoms who has stepped up

00:46:17.160 to provide uh defense on the first first stage of this um

00:46:20.780 i got more to say but we're out of time all right cory dave nigel thank you thank you john and josh

00:46:30.400 on production and all of you for joining us today and who are supporting the work we do remember if

00:46:35.300 you're not a member yet of the Western Standard, 0.98

00:46:37.420 you're a cheap bastard in freeloading 0.99

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Western Standard - April 18, 2026

THE PIPELINE： Can Poilievre survive？

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