00:12:24.800So this could go into a long, dirty war. Iran knows now. If they weren't building a bomb before, I guarantee you they are building a bomb now. They've realized what happens if a country has a bomb, you don't get attacked. It's North Korea how well that works. They're even crazier in some ways than Iran. They don't get attacked.
00:12:45.540um so uh this could go on and on and on potentially is there a potential political
00:12:53.660liability now that carney even though we don't have troops there carney's going to have to wear
00:12:57.900this if this becomes because it's not popular even in america let alone canada if this goes on
00:13:03.820and turns into another big iraq style quagmire is there a political liability for carney here
00:13:09.160having at least on paper supported it with some regrets well he will simply say the situation was
00:13:16.360what it was when i've made those comments since then it's changed and uh well i stand against it
00:13:24.840and he will say something else the week following if it is suitable a man does not have
00:13:30.360consistent positions to be fair it makes it easier for him to back trap when that fluid
00:13:35.480situation changes i mean in reality this is all in trump's weird little orange hands i i mean
00:13:40.440whatever he determines to do it's i i don't forget what you said these crazy things he's not
00:13:48.520necessarily uh trying to inform us he's trying to confuse the enemy trying to extricate themselves
00:13:54.040i would hope i don't know i mean it's tough to get in their minds but i mean what more goal
00:13:58.040you've blown the main things out of there you're already now losing popular support
00:14:01.720If you want to look at just the cold-hearted way, the dollars are massive that you're pumping into there.
00:14:06.660It's not helping your own economy when you've got energy.
00:14:12.940So, I mean, I suspect the pressure's coming on pretty hard and fast for him to make his, say, well, we've made our point now and we'll back out and let Israel keep pecking that.
00:14:21.600But the Iranians have to agree to peace.
00:15:21.280From back then, we would talk to a person from, there was a documentary piece on our radio, but with a woman who in her city, they had gone out and protested and they were wiped out with birdshot.
00:15:32.720A whole lot of nasty things and stuff.
00:15:37.800But I mean, if it becomes, it looks like your liberators are worse than what you're dealt with, then that can change.
00:15:42.380Yeah, just yesterday, more than a million Tehranians, if that's the right word, gathered in a square for some of the funerals of the killed military.
00:15:53.680A million people all in support of the regime.
00:15:57.040Whether they were all there willingly or not, I don't know.
00:15:59.520It's kind of a million people at gunpoint, though.
00:16:02.520You have to have some genuine support.
00:16:05.360We've seen through whispered regimes, too, though.
00:16:07.100I mean, if you don't show your face, the knock on the door comes later.
00:16:10.300Well, it might be good for your career to show up.
00:16:11.800I'm going to kill you if you don't go to a rally.
00:16:15.360Look at the Australian women's soccer team.
00:16:40.840i'm sure there still is plenty of opposition to the regime in iran but when trump says we if you
00:16:46.360don't open the strait of hormuz we will destroy the nation so they can never be rebuilt again
00:16:51.640that's not going to help unconditional surrender unconditional surrender means we invade and
00:16:57.080occupy and dismember your country vis-a-vis germany 45 or nuke you vis-a-vis japan 45.
00:17:05.240No one likes that, even if you don't oppose the regime.
00:17:10.660You know, arguably the Second World War requirements for unconditional surrender made a speedy end of the war, even still victorious, impossible.
00:17:19.500People will then, who oppose, say, the Japanese regime or the German regime, they were like, well, I guess we're in it to the end.
00:17:25.820Because unconditional surrender means I'm being ethnically cleansed and destroyed and subjugated.
00:17:30.880people that will rally behind regimes they don't like if a foreign power that requires
00:17:37.820unconditional surrender. Thankfully, I don't think Trump understands what unconditional
00:17:43.180surrender actually means. I think he means that just means we win big. I think that's what he
00:17:47.380think it means. But it doesn't matter. The Iranians can now use that for propaganda. I can say, do you
00:17:53.340want to be like Germany or Japan in 1945? And the answer from even the most liberal dissident of the
00:17:58.980regime will be no the other part of that too that we haven't mentioned much of though is even if
00:18:04.760trump goes out israel's not going to rest until that threat's gone they've had enough that's kind
00:18:10.580of the culmination of october 7th the nuclear threat was destroyed in the 12 days before yeah
00:18:14.580we're talking about the money that goes to hezbollah hamas the houthis you name it said they
00:18:19.060go after the nukes again this time i understand but uh they are determined to make sure that iran's
00:18:25.560not in a position to start and it's gonna start again it's a cycle it seems but to knock that
00:18:30.760ability down as much as they humanly can because it is a threat that's just sitting there and it
00:18:35.000was a country we can't forget that it the leader said over and over and over again we're going to
00:18:39.800eliminate israel it's a very it's not an imagined threat to israel or perceived threat it was a very
00:18:45.160direct threat that was made i mean you can question whether or not the united states was
00:18:49.240justified in slapping at iran but israel any country when asked if they were provoked into
00:18:55.320fighting back they were quite well provoked yes 50 if the u.s stops their incursion today israel
00:19:01.240will continue it tomorrow though the u.s probably fund israel a lot to do that yeah welcome to
00:19:07.480geopolitical uh i don't know uh maybe this all this ends tomorrow you know that'd be that'd be
00:19:13.000nice that'd be good i'm not convinced it does because only last time uh i'm not sure iran
00:19:18.200necessarily at least agrees to a ceasefire and cries uncle well this will not end until they
00:19:23.960open up the straits of hormuz again you've got a lot of countries china among them who are
00:19:29.880very concerned about their ships stuck up the north end this is the card that iran has to play
00:19:35.320they seem to be able to keep the straits closed even with even with their navy at the bottom of
00:19:40.600the sea they seem to be able to keep those straits closed uh the the best case scenario
00:19:46.040is the war ends but the straits remain closed so alberta makes money that's win-win people that's
00:19:52.520How much do you want to pay for your gas, Derek? You've got a big truck.
00:19:56.280I will make that sacrifice for Alberta because we'll be swimming in money.
00:22:51.100There are three ridings in which the NDP
00:22:58.020and the Liberals are with 1,000 of each other,
00:23:01.360which is considered to be a swing seat.
00:23:07.260And the NDP lost 1.2 million votes over their 2021 vote score.
00:23:15.580$3 million in 2021 and $1.2 million in 2025, if a lot of those voters decided that, okay, we've made our point, we don't like what the liberals have been doing in sacking civil servants, we choose to believe Mr. Carney really likes the war in Iran, you know what, we're going back to the NDP.
00:23:37.260There's room there for the Liberals to lose on this too
00:23:41.220So Mr. Carney, I say, will do everything he can to avoid the election
00:23:45.320And things seem to be breaking his way
00:23:47.380I think a lot of it's going to depend on who the new leader of the NDP is
00:23:51.180You may see some of those current NDPs thinking
00:26:46.680So the block in that by-election might not be as strong as would have thought with a one-vote difference a year.
00:26:53.280And that's another thing to think about.
00:26:54.900I mean, at some point, I mean, the polls are looking great for Kearney right now.
00:26:59.200If they go up another point or two, the urge to call an election may become overwhelming for them.
00:27:05.300and just you know grab that majority it's gonna be hard super majority yeah it's gonna be hard
00:27:10.800to justify calling an election so soon after the last one when you have a majority but it will be
00:27:17.100the barest you can always majority find a way yeah it's nice i was pointing out i mean a
00:27:21.240functional majority even if all the stars line up looking that way but 173 i mean you're one
00:27:27.380bad case of the trots away from losing an ill-timed confidence vote uh you want to feel
00:27:32.960better to have a 10 or 15 vote buffer if you have a majority that's agreed but i mean uh even if you
00:27:38.700wanted to engineer his own defeat other parties could get cold feet the ndp sure does not want an
00:27:44.060election yet the conservatives do not they can't all skip the vote but a couple of them could skip
00:27:50.320the vote elizabeth may ah she's just happy to be there getting a paycheck at this point like we
00:27:56.300don't have that games played though i mean you don't have to engineer a defeat the confidence
00:27:59.580You can come up with a big bill of something so big and radical that suddenly you rethink, you know what, this is so important, we must take it to the electorate rather than the House of Commons.