Western Standard - September 08, 2022


The Pipeline： Kenney keeps meddling in UCP race


Episode Stats

Length

41 minutes

Words per Minute

178.78055

Word Count

7,389

Sentence Count

486

Misogynist Sentences

15

Hate Speech Sentences

5


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Jason Kenney is back in hot water for his apparent interference in the United Conservative Party leadership race, and the fallout from it. Plus, Derek Fildebrandt is joined by Western Standard editor-in-chief Corey Morgan to discuss it all.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Good evening, I'm Derek Fildebrandt. Today is September 7th, 2022, and you're watching
00:00:24.400 the pipeline on the Western Standard. I'm joined as usual now by Western Standard opinion editor
00:00:32.940 Nigel Henniford. How are you, Nigel? I'm good today. Beautiful. And joined unusually now,
00:00:40.080 but much to everyone's viewing delight by Western Standard senior Alberta columnist
00:00:45.280 Corey Morgan. How are you doing, Corey? Very good. Well-rested. Visiting Western Standard
00:00:49.780 at World Headquarters again. It's good to have you back. Very good. We've got a great show today.
00:00:55.340 We're going to be really just talking about funny conservative stuff. Jason Kenney, again,
00:01:02.600 I think the third or fourth time now, very openly and deliberately, it seems, meddling in the United
00:01:09.840 Conservative Party's leadership race to succeed him, blasting Danielle Smith and her proposed 0.78
00:01:16.280 Sovereignty Act, splitting a bit of hairs in there to try and claim he's not. He's claiming
00:01:20.900 he's not, but I'm not sure anyone is buying that. So we're going to talk about what Jason
00:01:25.160 Kenney is doing, what is he hoping to achieve by it, and what will be the fallout. As well,
00:01:31.820 at long last, you can finally stop listening to us go on and on and on about it. This weekend,
00:01:40.900 And Saturday, the Conservative Party of Canada will finally elect its new leader to succeed Aaron O'Toole, who's on his way out.
00:01:52.160 Also, the Federal Conservatives interim leader, Candice Bergen, will not be running again.
00:01:56.260 That'll be the, I guess, the probably the closing of a political career for.
00:02:00.340 It probably will. And that's a real shame. Yeah.
00:02:03.240 This is a quality person. Yeah.
00:02:04.600 So we're going to talk about those two things, Kenny in the UCP leadership race and, of course, the federal conservatives finally finishing their leadership race.
00:02:13.500 Before we get going, though, we've got to thank my favorite sponsor.
00:02:16.980 You know who it is, Canadian Shooting Sports Association.
00:02:20.380 I've been a member of the CSSA for well over a decade now because I trust them to defend my rights as a gun owner in Canada.
00:02:27.980 Without the CSSA, our gun rights would have been taken long, long ago.
00:02:32.360 So these guys are on the front lines, helping to draft smart and intelligent firearms regulations and legislation in Canada.
00:02:41.300 And more importantly than that, I think, educating the public about how we keep guns out of the hands of the wrong people and ensure that, well, people like you and me can enjoy our firearms safely and legally in this country.
00:02:56.960 If you're not yet a member of the Canadian Shooting Sports Association, you should be.
00:03:01.440 Go to cssa-cila.org.
00:03:09.180 I am incapable of getting this right.
00:03:10.780 I don't do it every day.
00:03:11.640 Once a week.
00:03:13.240 .org and become a member.
00:03:14.860 It's absolutely worth every penny.
00:03:16.840 As I said, I've been a member for over a decade.
00:03:19.460 In fact, I might be picking up more things protected by the CSSA just this week.
00:03:26.240 I'm really looking forward to it. Okay, let's get into it. Jason Kenney sticking his nose in the
00:03:33.220 UCP leadership race again. He has done it several times so far, denying he's actually meddling in
00:03:40.560 the race, but I think it's pretty undeniable at this point. We've actually got a short clip. It
00:03:45.420 was from a much longer press conference, but we're going to show you just some of the highlight
00:03:50.320 of Kenney's comments on the Sovereignty Act and the UCP leadership race. Let's play that.
00:03:55.400 Well, it's completely with precedent for a premier to articulate and defend government policy.
00:04:02.200 The government I lead was elected on a platform to build a strong Alberta in a united Canada,
00:04:09.380 to create jobs, the economy, and get pipelines built, and to respect the rule of law.
00:04:17.380 The so-called Sovereignty Act would effectively take us to the brink of separation from the Canadian Federation,
00:04:26.760 would shred the rule of law, and would do devastating damage to jobs, the economy, and the prospect of pipelines.
00:04:35.480 This is a cockamamie idea that was first floated by a far-right special interest group a year ago.
00:04:41.960 I was asked to comment on it last fall through the winter in public forums on
00:04:48.580 telephone town halls local town halls that I attended across the province over
00:04:54.120 the past year and I'm simply restating the position I articulated that I'm not
00:05:01.580 engaging in the leadership election I'm not endorsing or opposing a particular
00:05:07.160 candidate i am maintaining the consistent position of the democratically elected government
00:05:15.640 which is to defend a strong alberta in a united canada the rule of law and to defend alberta's
00:05:23.960 economy okay well unfortunately for kenny another democratic process has sent him towards an early
00:05:33.240 retirement and uh he's not too happy about this on his way out here um quite the comments this is
00:05:41.960 i think the third or fourth time now that uh that kenny has open fired here well there's so many
00:05:46.960 different ways you can come at it uh first of all it's somewhat disingenuous to say well i'm not
00:05:52.100 really talking about danielle smith's uh proposal i'm talking about the one that came out of this
00:05:57.220 these days they're called far-right by Mr. Kenney, a far-right group a year ago.
00:06:03.320 Well, that's not what's on the table. Why would you be talking about that?
00:06:08.640 So, I mean, that's the first thing that strikes me.
00:06:12.320 And, of course, people, by and large, aren't going to make that distinction.
00:06:16.060 So if you talk about...
00:06:16.860 But, of course, he's not talking about Danielle Smith's Sovereignty Act.
00:06:19.720 He's talking about this one from a...
00:06:21.100 This one from a year ago.
00:06:22.580 But people will hear Sovereignty Act and think Danielle Smith.
00:06:26.060 So it's a sneaky way to do it.
00:06:28.540 I think it's unfortunate that he feels the need to do that.
00:06:32.440 But what's even more unfortunate is the fact that he says that it's about the rule of law.
00:06:38.040 If we had the rule of law in our relations with the federal government,
00:06:43.040 we wouldn't need a Sovereignty Act because they wouldn't be walking all over provincial jurisdiction.
00:06:50.420 Okay, so let's talk about this.
00:06:52.380 There's a lot of different angles to come at this from.
00:06:56.060 One, he says, well, this would take us to the brink of separation.
00:06:59.320 Shame, shame, shame, shame that it would take us to the brink of separation.
00:07:04.420 He calls it cockamamie.
00:07:07.080 You know, he's previously called it nuttier than squirreled, which, you know, I think is, you know, it's a fun saying.
00:07:15.060 That term I use a lot, actually.
00:07:16.220 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:07:17.020 I thought he was channeling a little Corey there, actually.
00:07:20.120 Now he's added new languages, kind of adopting the language of the far left, saying,
00:07:24.940 far-right special interest group. Let's quickly talk about this far-right special interest group
00:07:29.780 made up of Professor Barry Cooper of the University of Calgary, longtime associate
00:07:34.920 of Jason Kenney on this far-right special interest group. Derek James Frum, constitutional expert
00:07:41.040 and a guy who, at least before Kenney went off the branch COVIDian deep end, had been involved
00:07:48.780 deeply in the UCP and helping Jason Kenney possibly, I don't want to put words in his book,
00:07:52.860 but I think he was even supportive of his leadership campaign.
00:07:55.780 Definitely didn't distance him then.
00:07:57.720 Everybody was supportive of Jason Kenney's leadership campaign.
00:08:01.380 But I think he supported Kenney over Gene.
00:08:02.940 I might be getting that wrong, but I think so.
00:08:04.460 And the other one, Rob Anderson, who supported Jason Kenney's leadership campaign
00:08:09.200 and who Jason Kenney did not distance himself from.
00:08:11.920 He was the former finance critic of the Wild Rose.
00:08:15.340 These are not people who Jason Kenney has ever previously called far right.
00:08:20.320 when I think far right.
00:08:22.260 Well, I think Nazis. 0.91
00:08:24.160 But Kenny seems to be using it a bit more fluidly
00:08:26.400 the way the left would now, right?
00:08:28.220 Yeah, he's just going scorched earth on his own party.
00:08:30.580 It's classless, it's divisive, it's damaging.
00:08:33.820 And it's personal.
00:08:35.400 I just, you know, he's certainly welcome to his own thoughts.
00:08:39.000 Of course he is.
00:08:39.680 I guess some of the discussion I've seen online
00:08:41.080 of, well, he has the right to have,
00:08:43.140 certainly there's no law saying he can't say these things,
00:08:45.360 but there's form, there's tradition.
00:08:48.020 And Stephen Harper didn't even touch two leadership races after he had stepped aside.
00:08:53.200 And he was no longer the leader and premier of the prime minister.
00:08:56.200 Yeah, he waited until quite some time before cautiously venturing in and giving an endorsement in a leadership race, which was just this year.
00:09:03.280 You're on the way out.
00:09:04.760 Your members kicked you out.
00:09:08.240 Stay quiet.
00:09:09.440 Finish your term.
00:09:10.820 And then you can be a statesman and comment all you like.
00:09:13.420 But right now, all he is doing is tossing bombs into his own party on the way out the door.
00:09:17.880 And it's really, I expected so much better of him.
00:09:19.920 I really did.
00:09:20.740 Well, let's follow up with what Nigel said.
00:09:23.820 He's trying to, I think, have his cake and eat it too here.
00:09:26.920 He's clearly attacking Danielle Smith.
00:09:30.420 Like, the leadership race has been a referendum on the Sovereignty Act.
00:09:34.700 But he's saying, oh, I'm not going after any candidate.
00:09:36.760 I'm not supporting or opposing any candidate.
00:09:38.420 I'm just talking about this policy, which I've been talking about for a year.
00:09:43.200 Is there anything to it?
00:09:44.520 Does he have any argument?
00:09:45.720 No.
00:09:46.060 I mean, if that, Paul, if there's a whole bunch of ifs here anyways, if Daniel wins the leadership, if that policy comes to the floor of the legislation, nobody's seen the details of what's in it necessarily anyways, that's the time when legislators, including Kenny, assuming he's still an MLA deep in the backbench where he belongs right now, will be able to parse this and look at it and debate it and discuss it.
00:10:07.760 And if indeed it's that odious, maybe the caucus will throw it in the trash heap.
00:10:12.100 But to get into the speculative discussions of what's in it, what it would amount to, it's a campaign plank.
00:10:19.860 And that's, again, where you're saying when he's playing cutesy saying he's doing his job as a premier, no, he's wading right into a leadership race.
00:10:25.340 Well, you're right, Corey. All we can really know right now about what may be in the Putative Sovereignty Act from a putative Daniel Smith government is what she has told us so far.
00:10:38.920 And that is unfortunate, really, that Daniel always goes back to sections of the Constitution and says, well, there's Section 93, 94, 94.
00:10:48.680 Nobody knows what these sections are. So I looked them up just to just to this is the kind of thing you would do.
00:10:54.160 Section 92 of the Constitution Act sets out the relative powers of the federal and provincial governments.
00:11:03.360 Section 93 talks about public education.
00:11:06.380 Section 94 allows the federal parliament to legislate in relation to property rights so long as the legislatures of the provinces agree.
00:11:17.680 Section 95 talks about the jurisdiction with respect to immigration and agriculture.
00:11:26.420 These are all areas where provincial rights are well established by the Constitution.
00:11:33.160 And if they are trodden on by agents of the federal government, in some cases, literally, I believe,
00:11:39.980 where there's been trespassing on Saskatchewan farms, but I wasn't trying to be cute with language or anything.
00:11:45.420 But that happened.
00:11:46.460 That happened.
00:11:47.680 So, this just affirms the willingness and the determination of the provincial government
00:11:56.840 to say, no, put a stop to it.
00:11:59.520 It's not about separation.
00:12:02.200 She is very specific about that.
00:12:04.960 And it is about enforcing constitutional rights Alberta already has.
00:12:09.960 So I find the whole thing a red herring and a bit, like what you said, a bit beneath him.
00:12:16.720 I'm going to circle back around to Kenny in a bit here, but let's talk about, you know, well, we don't know what's in the bill because we haven't seen the bill yet.
00:12:22.100 Right. So some of, you know, Smith's critics, you know, Garner Jenis, a federal MP from the Fort Saskatchewan area.
00:12:30.080 He was saying, hey, well, show us the bill, write the bill and show it to us, which I thought was curious.
00:12:35.800 I was a legislator for four years. Garner Jenis had been a legislator for even longer than that.
00:12:40.920 And I can tell you, MLAs and MPs never, ever, under any circumstance, write a bill in advance.
00:12:49.080 These things are especially something, as long as this, this could be thousands of pages.
00:12:53.020 It'll be at the very least hundreds of pages.
00:12:55.000 It's drafted by an army of lawyers.
00:12:57.360 In fact, most MPs and MLAs don't read a bill before they vote on it.
00:13:04.200 In fact, some of them have it after they voted.
00:13:06.080 Ministers often don't read their own bills in their entirety because they're long, boring, legal documents.
00:13:12.340 Generally, there's one person at a caucus who's responsible for reviewing the damn thing.
00:13:16.380 Now, this isn't to say it's unfair to criticize it because I think Daniel was maybe a little too far here saying, well, you shouldn't criticize it till you see it.
00:13:24.840 I don't think that's fair either.
00:13:26.140 It is fair to criticize it.
00:13:28.040 But as a campaign plank, it's fair to say I don't like the Sovereignty Act.
00:13:32.380 I don't think this is the appropriate way to go about Ottawa.
00:13:34.420 I disagree with that. I think it actually is probably the way we got to go. But it is fair
00:13:40.180 to criticize it on its own merits as a campaign plank. You know, Nigel, it's wild to say every
00:13:48.140 politician needs to write the bills when they're in the campaign promise phase. I'd say, you know,
00:13:54.580 if you do four years as a legislator and you're on the government side and you've promised bills,
00:14:00.700 you need to write probably 200 to 300 bills in advance of an election, right?
00:14:07.660 No, you're quite right. Politicians do not write legislation. And the explanation that I've taken
00:14:16.540 from everything that Danielle has said has got nothing to do with the wording of it. She says,
00:14:21.660 it has worked very well for Quebec to be a nation within a nation. Fine. Let's see if it works well 0.61
00:14:28.300 for Alberta. And I think that's a perfectly valid position to take, and that's probably where
00:14:33.660 the discussion should be taking place, not on where they put the commas in clause three, section C.
00:14:40.140 So let's talk about how this is looking, I think, for legacy. Kenny is not technically an interim
00:14:46.780 premier, but he is effectively a lame duck premier. He would probably have a hard time holding the
00:14:52.460 confidence of the House right now, even with the majority for his party, which is why the House is
00:14:56.300 is not there. But, you know, he's, he's weighted into the leadership race on this issue several
00:15:05.020 times before, I think two or three times before. And then we also had the lieutenant governor
00:15:08.840 unprecedentedly inserting herself into this. Let's, let's talk first about Kenny. Do you think
00:15:18.560 all of this is going to, I think Kenny right now is very much primarily concerned with his legacy.
00:15:23.640 How is he going to be viewed when he leaves office?
00:15:27.480 Do you think this is, you know, let's try to pretend we're looking back with some hindsight a year after Kenny's gone.
00:15:36.880 Do you think Kenny looks better for this, you know, the lieutenant governor himself inserting themselves in this car?
00:15:43.420 Oh, I mean, he's given up all dignity on the way out.
00:15:46.280 I mean, it's hard to be dignified when your own members have put their boot on your butt to shove you out the door.
00:15:50.600 but then you can finish it out with some class and trying to show the manager and the professional you are for those final few months
00:15:57.180 and follow the political forms and loyalty to the party you rightly did help create on the way out.
00:16:04.520 I mean, you know, take it with some humility.
00:16:07.740 That is a very good point.
00:16:09.240 There are two types of people, those who get things going and those who manage to sustain them.
00:16:14.660 And it's not that often that you get somebody who has got the drive and the initiative to make something happen
00:16:20.560 who also turns out to be a competent administrator in the long term.
00:16:25.220 Very fair point.
00:16:26.260 That's what we're dealing with here.
00:16:27.560 Two separate skills.
00:16:28.360 And, you know, you ask, how are we going to see Mr. Kenny in a year's time?
00:16:32.620 I think probably we'll be a little more generous to him in a year's time
00:16:36.820 because we will accept that it was his drive and initiative, frankly,
00:16:41.660 frankly and his vision that got this party established but oh dear what has happened since
00:16:47.960 and that is the problem and all we're talking about these parting shots on the way out just
00:16:53.980 they make him look bad eventually people will forget about it and forgive him but
00:16:57.980 that's not this week not this month not doing himself favors so probably be remembered as a
00:17:03.760 great party founder but not a particularly pleasant party leader i would say so and you
00:17:08.120 know the way nigel's putting it he could have framed it very well for himself and saying well 0.99
00:17:11.180 okay, I did all that. It's time for the next phase and another person to take care of this
00:17:16.100 and move it along from when I started. And you can feel as if this was just a natural progression
00:17:20.760 of things, scorched earth appearances. It doesn't help. So now let's bring it back down away from
00:17:26.860 the cause, Kenny, to the effect, the leadership race, and maybe the UCP more broadly. But before
00:17:35.460 we get to how this will affect maybe a general election and the unity of the UCP after, let's
00:17:39.900 talk about the leadership race. He says, I'm not promoting or opposing anyone. I don't think
00:17:47.860 many rational people would believe that at this point, if they ever did. Corey, do you think that,
00:17:55.820 what effect is this going to have on the UCP leadership race as members, the membership cutoff
00:18:00.300 is already over. Balloting is going to begin fairly soon here. It was a significantly shorter
00:18:05.720 a period than the federal conservatives have taken. What effect, if any, do you think this
00:18:09.940 will have on the leadership race? I don't think it's going to change the outcome. I don't think
00:18:13.440 there were a lot of undecideds left already at this point, but it really is entrenching the camps
00:18:18.380 is what it's doing. And there's going to be a lot more people who, if they are not on the winning
00:18:22.660 camp at the end of this, are going to turn on their heel and stomp out the door rather than
00:18:26.480 saying, okay, it's over. We gave it a good go. Let's come together now and make sure we win next
00:18:31.120 spring's election. Instead, they can't be in the room together. They're fighting. They're
00:18:35.580 divided, and he's pouring gasoline onto those fires. I mean, leadership races always have a
00:18:40.020 degree of that, but he's inflaming it, and that's really what is a risk going on.
00:18:44.100 Well, you know, Corey, I can't help thinking that every time he says something that appears
00:18:48.820 to criticize Danielle Smith, even if obliquely through saying, well, I don't like the Sovereignty
00:18:55.320 Act. Every time he does that, somebody else decides, you know what, I think I'm going to go
00:19:01.060 with I think I'm going to go with
00:19:02.660 Danielle Smith
00:19:03.680 there's something you never
00:19:06.420 look good attacking
00:19:08.940 a woman and if the woman in this case 0.99
00:19:11.160 Ms. Smith responds
00:19:13.280 graciously
00:19:14.860 and doesn't bite back
00:19:17.360 what she has said
00:19:19.220 publicly is
00:19:19.940 that she is ready to work with
00:19:22.920 Mr. Kenney if she becomes the leader
00:19:25.160 and very measured
00:19:26.740 very strategic about how she's
00:19:29.180 responded to his attacks
00:19:31.380 that will probably get her some sympathy from some people.
00:19:35.500 It could push things a little in her direction. 0.67
00:19:38.120 Certainly motivate her existing voters, too. 1.00
00:19:40.000 I mean, there could have been soft ones, but I don't know.
00:19:41.880 I'm too busy to fill that out.
00:19:42.980 And then I see that, you know what?
00:19:43.800 Oh, get me that ballot. 0.96
00:19:45.080 Darn it, I'm getting it in the mail.
00:19:45.940 You got your ballot yet?
00:19:47.200 I don't know.
00:19:47.520 I'm not a member.
00:19:49.940 We're a lot of members here.
00:19:51.140 Well, so that is so true.
00:19:52.380 I was a member before I joined the club,
00:19:55.100 so our ballots made it through the mail yesterday.
00:19:58.420 Okay.
00:19:58.620 Okay. So I want to pick up on something you said about the ability of the party to heal after.
00:20:04.780 Leadership race is always divisive. There's always hurt feelings.
00:20:08.660 There's normally, but not always, different ideological camps.
00:20:11.700 In this case, it's pretty deep, I think, but maybe particularly so now.
00:20:16.740 If Smith wins, and she's headed, I think, for a win right now, but it's not locked up.
00:20:20.480 If she wins, you know, the establishment folks who did not win, they might feel all the more, they might say, well, now on a point of principle, we cannot be open to try and find some compromise on the Sovereignty Act and the caucus.
00:20:37.220 We were opposed to it. Our man, Jason Kenney, who was wrongfully thrown out, he's against it. It might dig in their heels.
00:20:44.940 And on the other side, on the Smith side, the Pro Sovereignty Act side, the more populous side of the party, if they lose somehow, my fear is they would say, well, it was rigged all along.
00:20:58.720 You had, you know, the unprecedented event of the sitting leader and premier directly intervening, clearly showing his hand about who he wanted.
00:21:07.020 He opposed the act.
00:21:08.880 We didn't have a fair race because the outgoing leader is never supposed to do this.
00:21:12.720 That's not the way it works.
00:21:13.640 and that they might take their ball and go home.
00:21:17.160 And that side of the party, the more populist and anti-Ottawa side,
00:21:20.320 that is the side of the party that has historically broken away from time to time
00:21:24.860 in both reform and the wild rose.
00:21:28.060 How much of a danger do you think there is, Nigel,
00:21:30.140 that this could turn into a real unity crisis for the UCP one way or another?
00:21:35.580 Well, unity crisis first, an election crisis next year.
00:21:39.260 I mean, if this party does not put itself back together again,
00:21:43.100 then we are all doomed to another four years of the NDP.
00:21:50.260 That is a very serious possibility.
00:21:53.960 Therefore, whoever becomes the leader is going to, that is job one,
00:22:00.200 is to be gracious and magnanimous in victory and woo back the people who,
00:22:06.880 for all the reasons that you've just offered, are going to be spitting that.
00:22:10.260 What are they going to be able to, even if the leader is gracious and magnanimous?
00:22:14.740 Kenny just seems to be salting the earth here now so that, you know, if his, you know, so if his candidate Taves wins, the Smith people on the other side of the party, they're going to say, well, we didn't get a fair race.
00:22:24.420 We have this guy intervening in the whole time, you know, and then the other side, they probably wouldn't claim a not fair race, but they'd claim, well, you know, we were against it before, so we can't fall in line now.
00:22:36.400 we can't be seen to support this because I'd be seen as a hypocrite because I was so strongly
00:22:41.280 against it before. And look, even the outgoing premier was... Eric, I would love to think that
00:22:46.980 so many politicians would be worried about being perceived as hypocrites. You know what? I should
00:22:52.020 know better by now. I should know better by now. They will get paid off somehow or other. There'll
00:22:57.260 be a nice job or a situation there that will be... It's the other guys that you need to... Because,
00:23:02.420 I know, man, you know, what makes a conservative conservative is actually a sense of who they are, what they want, and what is right.
00:23:09.680 And boy, if they feel wrong, they can be brutally unforgiving.
00:23:13.700 That is, unfortunately, the strength of the old brokerage parties is they can always find a way to make it up to you.
00:23:19.500 That's not the way we are.
00:23:21.700 There's a degree of pragmatism among establishment-type candidates, too.
00:23:25.080 They like being in power.
00:23:26.020 So, hey, once there is a new leader, okay, if you want any hope of staying in cabinet, getting in cabinet, do you want to have this battle, die on this hill when an election is looming this spring?
00:23:35.840 Or is it time we know how much the public remembers things, too?
00:23:38.920 Okay, yes, you were behind, Kenny, but you didn't shoot necessarily or draw a really solid line on the Sovereignty Act.
00:23:44.680 You can be critical of it in discussion or put it through.
00:23:47.800 I think they recognize that risk.
00:23:49.680 I mean, some of them anyways.
00:23:50.660 because not least counting on it,
00:23:52.520 you can hear it on the ads already,
00:23:53.980 those incessant NDP union funded ads
00:23:56.200 that are on every radio channel
00:23:57.940 and they know where the weakness is
00:23:59.200 because they're always saying,
00:23:59.980 the party's ignoring you.
00:24:02.080 They're all busy fighting themselves right now
00:24:03.920 and ignoring the province
00:24:05.200 and I would stand up for you
00:24:07.700 because these UCP guys
00:24:08.800 can't get their crap together
00:24:09.700 and she's right.
00:24:10.960 And if their first session,
00:24:12.040 whoever leads that party
00:24:12.980 has got one session
00:24:13.820 before an election basically
00:24:15.800 and if that's all they are doing
00:24:16.960 is fighting with themselves,
00:24:18.180 then they might as well
00:24:18.800 just give it a throw down.
00:24:19.520 Actually, if it's Smith,
00:24:20.660 if I was advising Smith here, I'd tell her not to hold a fall session. She needs time to get the 0.99
00:24:26.060 team together. I would not go straight into it. She wouldn't have a seat in the legislature at
00:24:30.160 that time anyway. So if Taves wins, I would expect you're going to see a fall session.
00:24:34.800 They'll have that session through the legislature. Smith wins. If I'm going to bet, there's no fall
00:24:39.620 session. There'd be maybe a lightning fast spring session with a throne speech, the table, the
00:24:45.720 budget, and then there's an election. So like a two-day session kind of thing. I think you'll see
00:24:49.480 that. Okay. We're gonna move on now to the federal conservatives. The UCB might be electing its
00:25:01.420 member in October, but the federal conservatives are electing their leader in September. The
00:25:06.820 difference is they had about a four-month difference in when that started. Although the
00:25:12.400 federal conservatives did a much cleaner job of getting rid of their leader than provincially,
00:25:16.060 provincially uh kenny just held on for dear life we had his leadership review vote was punted out
00:25:21.340 and punted out and punted out the rules changed constantly federally they had something called the
00:25:25.420 reform act and that just allowed them to drop the guillotine on uh a tool like that it was over in
00:25:30.700 about 40 less than 48 hours finally saturday we're gonna find out uh how that pier poliver is the
00:25:40.780 the leader of the Conservative Party. Did I say that right? I do believe you're right. I think
00:25:47.260 that's very likely the way to go. Saturday the Conservatives will announce that Pierre
00:25:50.140 Polliver is in fact the leader of the Conservative Party. Would anyone take issue with that? First
00:25:56.700 ballot. First ballot, yes. Anyone have any question around that? I think it looks that way.
00:26:02.460 I can't see anything but a first ballot. Really, I should be watching to see who is the second
00:26:09.660 place on that. I mean, the default smart thing to say is, oh, well, it'll be Mr. Charest.
00:26:16.220 But I don't know that that's supported by the poll numbers.
00:26:19.300 Well, outside our office here, you guys at home can't see, but we've got,
00:26:23.740 you know, we're pretty dorky around here. We bet on some funny things. And we've had the
00:26:28.760 conservative party sweepstakes. We've got federal and provincial on the wall of how we think the
00:26:33.060 vote's going to break down. And we've all put, I think, 20 bucks or a six pack of beer in the
00:26:39.460 pot. And we've all bet, you know, ranking how people are going to come out on the vote.
00:26:45.800 Universally, everyone's got Pierre Polliver in first. And everyone else, I think, followed the
00:26:51.140 conventional wisdom, myself included, saying second place will be Sheree,
00:26:56.140 followed by Lewis, followed by Babber, followed by Atchison. You have deviated from that.
00:27:02.760 You're going for the long odds. You don't think Sheree is going to be second place?
00:27:06.720 You know, this could be just an Alberta perspective, but everybody I have talked to said, yes, Mr. Poliaver is our first choice, and I really like Leslie Lewis, so I'm going second with her.
00:27:20.120 Now, whether that's because many Albertans sympathize very strongly with her social conservative views, whether it's the people that we're talking to tend to be church-going people to whom she has an appeal.
00:27:32.920 She's done a lot of her campaigning in churches.
00:27:39.020 Don't know what was driving it, but I hear a lot about Leslie Lewis as everybody's second choice. 1.00
00:27:45.640 So here's why you're wrong.
00:27:46.960 Okay.
00:27:47.560 Where am I wrong?
00:27:48.100 And you're right.
00:27:49.300 She's everyone's second choice.
00:27:51.580 Yep.
00:27:51.920 But with Polliver, he's not going to drop off.
00:27:53.780 So the second choice will never get counted.
00:27:56.640 We'll actually never know who the seconds were.
00:27:58.220 But I would guess that on the number twos, she probably would be the number two. 0.64
00:28:05.220 But what matters is, is she going to rank second?
00:28:07.760 She's the first number two, is what you're saying.
00:28:10.460 Everybody puts her second.
00:28:11.660 Everybody will.
00:28:12.240 Yeah, so people will put, you know, people on the right will put Polliver or Babber first.
00:28:16.240 And some people put her first.
00:28:18.120 And then they'll all put her as second place for each other.
00:28:20.960 So she'll get, see, assuming that Babber drops off before her, which I think is going to happen, but not for sure.
00:28:27.400 Babba drops off, and she's second place.
00:28:29.160 Well, then those go to her.
00:28:31.040 But when all of them are counted, because only the first places are counted
00:28:33.980 until they're eliminated and gone, she might be everyone's second choice. 0.56
00:28:38.240 But I think she doesn't have enough first choices to come in second at the end.
00:28:42.620 So I think she'll come third.
00:28:44.100 Well, I guess there's a 12-pack riding on it, isn't there?
00:28:49.080 More than that.
00:28:49.780 There's more than that in the pool.
00:28:50.920 You can get a good drunk on if you win the pool.
00:28:53.940 Which is why we all had to put as a tiebreaker
00:28:56.800 What percentage Polliver is going to get on the first ballot
00:28:59.340 So here's the thing with Lesley and Lewis
00:29:01.980 What are they going to do with her
00:29:04.300 Whoever wins, whether it is Balev, whether it is Mr. Charest
00:29:09.680 She represents the constituency
00:29:12.720 A very strong one, we've just established that
00:29:15.260 Where do you put Lesley and Lewis
00:29:19.480 in the next federal conservative line.
00:29:24.740 Well, I guess Pauliev will not do what O'Toole did
00:29:28.360 and put her on the back benches because she was unvaccinated 1.00
00:29:31.200 and a social conservative.
00:29:34.020 I think you're right about that.
00:29:35.800 Yeah, O'Toole put her on the back benches.
00:29:37.240 She was, well, not officially unvaccinated.
00:29:39.100 She just refused to disclose her vaccination status. 0.96
00:29:41.520 So probably unvaccinated, but not for sure.
00:29:45.680 I think you'll see her in a front bench position 1.00
00:29:48.240 and probably in the cabinet, Corey?
00:29:50.360 Oh, yeah, I mean, that was a mistake.
00:29:52.480 Again, when we're talking about party unity
00:29:53.800 and the conservatives have always a challenge with that,
00:29:55.760 you're balancing your libertarians,
00:29:57.000 your social conservatives, your centrists.
00:29:59.120 You've got to consolidate that somehow.
00:30:01.020 You have to try.
00:30:02.400 And when somebody is strongly supported
00:30:03.960 as Leslie Lewis, an unapologetic social conservative,
00:30:06.940 you know that it's not an election-winning formula
00:30:08.980 to come and platform on social conservative views,
00:30:11.640 but you can throw some red meat to them
00:30:13.760 by making sure that some of the representatives
00:30:15.440 have prominent, respected positions.
00:30:17.360 And that's part of where O'Toole went wrong, is when he punted Sloane to the sideline the way he did.
00:30:22.060 He punted Pollard to the back bench.
00:30:23.880 Yeah, that too.
00:30:24.500 Well, that was just more of a threat to his own throne, I think.
00:30:27.260 That was personal insecurity.
00:30:29.240 But with Sloane, it was trying to say, we don't have room for that view in this party. 0.98
00:30:33.420 And that just infuriates a segment of your party that are hardworking, dedicated voters who donate.
00:30:39.900 So a wise move by Pauly, I would make sure Lewis is respected and prominent in the party.
00:30:44.380 Any bets on if Shireh ends up in a Polyev cabinet? 0.98
00:30:52.320 I guess the question is whether Mr. Shireh would agree to serve in a Polyev cabinet.
00:30:58.520 I think the answer is an emphatic no.
00:31:00.520 Yeah, I mean, I'm sure that Mr. Polyev would extend the policy.
00:31:05.000 He's very good at doing that sort of thing.
00:31:06.600 He's quite, again, he knows how to be magnanimous when it's appropriate.
00:31:11.880 it. And I suspect that Mr. Shere would probably decline. Yeah. And I've had Shere's been on the
00:31:17.340 show a number of times. He's been very communicative and I've tried to corner him on that
00:31:21.060 because it'd be great if I could just say it, but of course he won't. He dodges. I don't think any
00:31:25.020 of us believe it, especially at his stage in life too, that he's, you know, this is the last kick
00:31:28.840 at the cat. He's not going to stay on as a caucus member. The question is just how good he'll be
00:31:34.660 about it in not winning. Something that concerned me was Tasha Carradine, who's been quite close in
00:31:40.000 his campaign and wrote the book and such and when I had her on the show. And she spoke along the
00:31:44.800 lines, hinted at the need perhaps for another entity then to serve the progressives. We're
00:31:51.520 talking about hinting at forming another bloody party and that would be a catastrophe. So actually
00:31:56.980 I want to talk about, let's go down that rabbit hole for a second because I actually kind of
00:32:00.760 wanted to get into it on the last one because it dubs tails nicely. Because in both cases,
00:32:05.200 the front runner uh is on the more populist and libertarian right-wing side versus more
00:32:11.600 establishment so-called centrist figures um you know so yeah i'm saying you know the right has a
00:32:19.040 has a tradition of breaking away wild rose reform that kind of thing but i can find no parallel in
00:32:25.200 the so-called center or red tories i can find no historical parallel i was chatting with a friend
00:32:30.560 of mine about this just just last friday stopped by uh you know i left the office after work we
00:32:35.600 stopped by for a beer and you know he he is more like that i'm more red dory moderate uh and we
00:32:40.880 argue all the time and you know we were there was two others there and we're talking and some of
00:32:46.320 the someone said yeah if danielle wins or poliver wins there's gonna be a breakaway in the center 1.00
00:32:50.400 i said i don't think so it's never happened before there's no habit of it uh you know we
00:32:54.720 we had some liberals and red tories try to break away with the reform sorry with the alberta party
00:32:59.520 here in alberta um and they'll get some prominent names they'll get you know the grass tops um but
00:33:06.560 they never get the grassroots and then i i really had to eat my words i said they're all tops no
00:33:11.680 bottoms and um well that that was a slip of my tongue for which uh i was derisively uh had to
00:33:18.880 pay quite a bit but there's no history of that uh there was joe clark they did try and it did turn
00:33:27.600 into rumps that never the progressive canadian party which fielded like half a dozen candidates
00:33:32.400 and couldn't get one percent of the vote there's no history of this no i don't think so now the
00:33:38.320 if if the conservative party members of the conservative party feel they haven't been
00:33:43.680 adequately represented by whoever the new leader is if it if they are of the of the liberal
00:33:49.840 left-wing centrist progressive woke variety they're more likely to default back to the
00:33:54.640 liberal party was in ontario just well actually just a week before i started here and took quite
00:33:59.760 a few people and uh it was it was disconcerting to say well you know we would vote conservative
00:34:07.520 but we don't really want to be led by mr polyer when i would say i thought you were a friend of
00:34:13.120 mine he says yes but you know so i guess they're they're a safe place would be back in the liberal
00:34:19.760 party from which they were just poking their heads out and it doesn't go the way they wanted to
00:34:24.640 That's something that's a little different on the provincial and federal fronts when
00:34:28.060 we're looking at these threats because there are red Tories, there's blue Liberals.
00:34:32.960 There's always a lot of overlap with those two parties on the federal front.
00:34:36.300 Provincially we've got a much different thing.
00:34:37.740 We've got the UCP, we've got the NDP, they are quite polarized, quite different.
00:34:42.040 It's a big leap, which I think is safer for the next leader of the UCP, whoever that may
00:34:45.640 be.
00:34:46.640 There just isn't a good alternative to jump to.
00:34:48.240 If Tash is hinting at a new entity forming, yeah, it's probably unlikely it wouldn't go
00:34:54.120 But, I mean, somebody leading the charge saying, let's all join the Liberals and try and blow them up a little.
00:34:59.300 Well, I think, Corey, does she realize what a hell of a lot of work it is to form a new political party?
00:35:04.100 I mean, that's why it's only Reformers and Wild Rosers who have the nuts to do it. 1.00
00:35:07.900 I'm as well aware of how much work.
00:35:09.460 I know you are.
00:35:10.800 Yeah, yeah.
00:35:11.960 Just for those of you who don't know the history of Corey, Corey was at the very, very beginning of the Wild Rose.
00:35:18.400 Did work I would never dream of doing.
00:35:20.060 Founded a party even prior to that, too, that things fell apart.
00:35:23.500 But that's learning those hard lessons early and getting there.
00:35:26.580 It's a lot of work and a lot of compromise and a lot of people.
00:35:29.200 Okay, so let's talk about what we expect on Saturday itself.
00:35:32.140 So first, spoiler alert, the Western Standard is going to be doing a live broadcast on Conservative Election Day.
00:35:40.520 We're going to begin around a quarter to four Mountain Standard Time, covering it in the lead up to it.
00:35:47.900 We're going to have the leadership be announced by about 6 p.m.
00:35:52.560 Our time we'll have the speech from Pierre Polyev, sorry, the eventual winner announced at 6 p.m.
00:36:00.740 We'll hear from Pierre. So we're going to have some analysis and predictions before and analysis and kind of fallout after.
00:36:08.260 We're going to have Matthew Horwood reporting from right on the convention floor,
00:36:13.240 talking to some of the big rainmakers in the federal conservative party.
00:36:18.940 Let's talk about what we expect that day.
00:36:22.200 Okay, Pierre's going to win.
00:36:25.360 Do we expect any drama of any kind on the floor from some of the camps that are not so successful?
00:36:31.780 I would not expect it.
00:36:33.100 For one thing, it's not a brokerage situation where somebody spectacularly walks across the floor.
00:36:39.500 Nothing actually happens at the convention.
00:36:41.700 It's a party, essentially.
00:36:43.300 Essentially.
00:36:44.020 A watch party.
00:36:44.520 So if everybody's expectation that it's going to be settled on the first round comes to pass,
00:36:52.820 well, then there will be an announcement.
00:36:55.260 There will be a lot of whooping and hollering.
00:36:57.060 There will be a speech.
00:36:58.220 Everybody will retire to the bars.
00:37:00.660 I think it's highly unlikely that, I mean, I disagree with Mr. Charest on many points of
00:37:07.460 policy and on his record, but the man knows how to be gracious in defeat. That should be his lot.
00:37:16.660 I think the same would be true of the other three candidates, Lesley Lewis, Roman Baber,
00:37:22.420 and Mr. Aitchison, Scott Aitchison. I don't, I can't see any of them temperamentally being
00:37:28.500 inclined to throw a tantrum. I could imagine Patrick Brown throwing a tantrum. I could very
00:37:32.340 much imagine that. But he probably won't be on the premises. He probably won't be, and it wouldn't
00:37:38.020 be a tantrum, it would be a lawsuit. But anyway. Corey, I think I'm with Nigel on this one. I think
00:37:46.660 Jean Charest will probably have the most hurt feelings from this. You know, he's been the biggest
00:37:51.380 as the opponent of Polyev.
00:37:53.880 Do you expect to see the two stand
00:37:55.980 and Sheree hoist Polyev's hand in the air?
00:37:59.360 I don't know about the standing
00:38:00.320 and hoisting the hand in the air,
00:38:01.540 but he'll certainly be gracious, I'm sure.
00:38:03.900 And as Nigel said, I mean, he's a veteran.
00:38:05.800 He's a smart, controlled man.
00:38:07.920 And he still has a career ahead of him.
00:38:10.320 I mean, whether it's looking at, you know,
00:38:12.060 federal postings are in the private sector
00:38:14.340 and he wants to show class indignity.
00:38:16.900 So I don't think there's going to be an explosion.
00:38:18.740 Maybe some weird supporters
00:38:19.720 will make some noise in social media,
00:38:20.960 Yeah, but the convention itself should be pretty tame.
00:38:23.800 A future ambassador to France in a polar administration.
00:38:27.380 Is that what you're saying?
00:38:28.500 Better idea. Ambassador to Quebec.
00:38:32.600 I didn't say that. I didn't say that.
00:38:35.960 Okay. All right.
00:38:38.200 We'll wrap it there.
00:38:39.200 But just, yeah, reminder, tune in at a quarter to four Mountain Standard Time on Saturday.
00:38:45.280 We're going to be in, working overtime.
00:38:48.240 We're not paying overtime.
00:38:50.100 Sorry.
00:38:50.960 But we'll be in doing over time, giving you live coverage of the federal conservative leadership race,
00:38:55.680 also with our team from Parliament Hill right in Ottawa on the convention floor.
00:39:00.840 Before we go, though, I want to remind you, if you're not yet a member of the Western Standard,
00:39:06.840 I don't dislike you, but I'm starting to dislike you.
00:39:10.180 You really, really need to become a member.
00:39:12.320 The Western Standard is one of a tiny, tiny handful of media in all of Canada,
00:39:17.200 from the Atlantic to the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean that do not take the federal government's
00:39:23.340 media bailout bribe money. We don't take it because we don't need it because people like you
00:39:29.660 step up to support us. If you become a member of the Western Standard, you're going to get
00:39:33.980 unlimited access to all of our content. We publish more than all four of just the Alberta papers
00:39:38.420 combined each day right now in original content. We've got bureaus in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton,
00:39:45.340 Regina, Parliament Hill, and a bunch of correspondents scattered hither and yon,
00:39:51.180 everywhere in between. It's only $10 a month or $100 a year. You're going to love it. If you don't
00:39:57.780 like it, you can cancel at any time. So go to westernstandard.news and click on membership.
00:40:03.280 Find out why you should join. I guarantee you're going to like it. If you don't like it,
00:40:06.880 write me an angry email. Send me an angry email, publisher at westernstandard.news. I'll tell you
00:40:12.260 how much of a jerk I am.
00:40:14.400 Better yet, tell me how much of a jerk Corey is.
00:40:17.000 That's what you all like to do, don't you?
00:40:18.460 And I will publish whatever you're saying.
00:40:20.680 And if it's a letter to the editor,
00:40:21.680 yeah, send it to letters at westernstandard.news.
00:40:24.320 Nigel's going to get it.
00:40:25.220 We love letters to the editor.
00:40:26.980 I was just repeating to Nigel today.
00:40:28.960 Nigel, what are my favorite kind of letters to the editor?
00:40:31.080 Filthy, abusive ones.
00:40:32.460 Yes.
00:40:33.440 Swear at me.
00:40:34.420 Insult me.
00:40:35.540 Call us all sorts of bad names.
00:40:37.280 Make it personal, if you will.
00:40:38.700 We will definitely publish those letters to the editor.
00:40:41.360 If you compliment us, chance we'll publish it.
00:40:44.840 But if you insult us and call us nasty things with bad grammar, we'll definitely publish it.
00:40:48.600 Try and be original.
00:40:50.240 Yeah, make it interesting for us.
00:40:53.300 Okay, gentlemen, Nigel, Corey, thank you very much today.
00:40:57.480 It's been wonderful as usual.
00:40:58.960 I thank all of you for joining us.
00:41:00.920 Have a good evening, and God bless.
00:41:11.360 Thank you.