Western Standard - THE PIPELINE： Making sense of Alberta’s kinda-sorta independence referendum

00:00:00.000 Welcome to a special edition of The Pipeline.

00:00:26.840 It's not just our normal Friday gab fest.

00:00:31.060 You know what we're going to be talking about.

00:00:32.600 We're only going to be talking about one thing,

00:00:34.800 and that is the announcement by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith

00:00:38.280 that Albertans are going to be heading to the polls October 19th

00:00:42.820 to sort of vote on independence.

00:00:47.680 Maybe I'll throw it to Dave just to start to kind of set it up,

00:00:51.160 just kind of the background with the different petitions

00:00:53.620 for Citizens Initiative campaigns.

00:00:56.840 and the question that Albertans are going to be voting on on October 19th.

00:01:01.760 Yeah, it really is a referendum to have a referendum.

00:01:08.720 You'll remember the petition, the independence petition,

00:01:12.860 was blocked by a court of appeal justice, so that couldn't go ahead.

00:01:19.600 So we had the stay in Canada petition by Thomas Lukasik

00:01:24.960 that basically the Premier has accepted that question.

00:01:31.320 So on October 19th, the Albertans are going to be asked,

00:01:35.340 do you want to stay in Canada or do you want to start the process to leave Canada?

00:01:42.160 And the reaction has been what you expect.

00:01:49.100 Those leading the independence sides are kind of going crazy.

00:01:54.280 People like Corey will tell you that the independence group should use this and get themselves more organized and whatnot.

00:02:04.420 But yeah, Albertans will have a say October 19th.

00:02:08.140 Do you want to stay as part of Canada or do you want to start the process to become an independent country?

00:02:14.760 So this referendum isn't precisely what anyone asked for, but it's a combination of what people had asked for that I don't think makes anyone quite happy.

00:02:28.140 If you talk to the Forever Canada petitioners, they claim that the referendum petition they signed was to not have a referendum.

00:02:37.960 I mean, it's kind of like the pullout method of not having referendums.

00:02:43.880 Like, accidents are going to happen, guys, especially with the act you're engaging in.

00:02:50.020 So, father of the nation, of Alberta nationhood, Thomas Lukasik, got his way, legally speaking.

00:02:59.600 He's going to get a referendum on should Alberta stay in Canada.

00:03:03.860 As Dave said, there were injunctions against the Stay Free Alberta petition, which was a straightforward Clarity Act compliant question on should Alberta become, seems to be a province and become an independent country.

00:03:20.660 That's not on the ballot because of some very bizarre court rulings saying that, you know, it's massively expanding the duty to consult with Indigenous groups to be, the consultation has to be before even deciding to pursue something.

00:03:37.300 So I guess if we were to apply this to, say, a pipeline, before you announce you even want to build a pipeline, you have to do the consultation.

00:03:45.620 It's absolutely insane.

00:03:47.740 Very good chance this gets struck down in appeal in higher courts at some point.

00:03:51.880 But that's years down the road.

00:03:53.860 Everybody probably remembers how many years it took in fights over the carbon tax going to the Supreme Court, fights over the No More Pipelines Act, those kinds of things.

00:04:02.480 These things take years.

00:04:03.540 So if there is going to be a referendum in the fall, it's not allowed. Oddly enough, the federal courts ruled that Alberta cannot have a referendum in compliance with the Federal Clarity Act and the Supreme Court of Canada's ruling around the secession reference case.

00:04:23.880 So it's it's very contradictory. But these things take years to sort out. So I think what, Corey, I want to go to you here. I think this is not going to make a lot of in the in the independence camp happy because it's not a vote on independence. It's a vote on if Alberta should begin the process of moving towards a formal vote on independence.

00:04:48.840 It is, it's a referendum on if we should have a referendum. I don't know, how charitable should we be, say, from a pro-independence perspective? How charitable should we be, you know, on, is this the best that could be hoped for in the circumstances with these court rulings? Or is it as, say, guys like Jeffrey Rath are saying this is a cop-out and Smith needs to be overthrown and someone else installed?

00:05:14.740 well i mean i don't like this i've been an independence advocate since i didn't have gray

00:05:20.960 hair and uh you know we were coming closer to what we thought might be a definitive clear vote

00:05:26.000 based on the clarity act an actual binding one closer than we'd ever seen before

00:05:30.620 and now it's it's sort of been kicked down the road but that said uh despite what with some of

00:05:37.400 the people like mr wrath and others who it seems have spent years trying to get rid of premier

00:05:41.720 Smith she can't put a binary question on the ballot I've talked to a number of people because

00:05:47.000 I was wondering about it like is it possible for her just to say too bad we're going to put it on

00:05:50.520 and no the second a binary question goes on the ballot it will go to court and the courts will

00:05:56.680 rule the same thing this appeal process has to be drawn out unfortunately this is the uncharted water

00:06:03.260 of a modern independence movement because yeah I know Quebec didn't have to deal with that in 1995

00:06:08.180 but the world has changed a lot legally since then and the requirement is ridiculous and it's

00:06:14.140 something appealable and hopefully winnable because as you said it'll apply to things like

00:06:17.540 pipelines and such but the independence movement can't just toss up their hands and give up

00:06:21.980 they've been given a question to chew on which is still important and they can campaign for it

00:06:27.680 they can you know don't worry about freaking out at the provincial government you'll have time for

00:06:31.880 that later you still want to at least get as good and affirmative to wanting to move on in the

00:06:36.940 process to becoming independent than, you know, rather than sitting around waiting for an appeal.

00:06:41.980 So you were given something to work on. And even if I don't even like the way the

00:06:46.480 question is structured, but all the same, you kind of got to make do with what you got or,

00:06:51.640 you know, the lemons and lemonade thing and see what you can make of it because otherwise you're

00:06:57.280 just giving up. And if you get that affirmative, then you really do have some grounds to say,

00:07:03.260 look, the premier now has a mandate. Now she should, well, whatever it might take, start what

00:07:08.780 would be called a consultation process or something, but move those mechanisms forward

00:07:13.740 towards a real referendum. And to be honest, it might be a bit of a blessing in disguise. Keith

00:07:18.240 Wilson said the quiet part out loud, the movement hasn't actually been gaining any steam in the

00:07:23.340 polls and they might not have been leading to a win this fall anyway. Yeah. There's a few ways

00:07:30.120 to go with this i know you said you weren't happy with the structure of this i actually do like a

00:07:34.540 referendum that's not necessarily yes or no but it's more of an a or b so you know rather do you

00:07:41.080 want this yes or no it's do you want option a or do you want option b i actually kind of like that

00:07:47.340 i think it's a bit more neutral than a yes or no um i don't like that they use the word separation

00:07:53.060 in it because separation and independence while they largely mean the same thing they don't

00:07:58.100 necessarily mean the same thing because separation uh some of it's just rhetorical as i the analogy

00:08:05.260 i always use is separation is like going to the bar and saying hey i'm divorced independence is

00:08:11.980 like going to the bar and say hey i'm single they kind of mean the same thing but they imply

00:08:17.220 something different uh separation i think could be a whole other kettle of worms including 51st

00:08:24.400 state annexation is stuff that overwhelmingly people are not particularly interested in.

00:08:29.240 I know there'll be a few people who are, but that's a vanishingly small group.

00:08:33.180 Independence means independence.

00:08:34.900 Alberta becomes its own country with its own alliances, its own trade agreements.

00:08:38.700 Separation could mean that, or it could mean other stranger options that have less mainstream appeal.

00:08:46.200 um uh to uh to cory's point nigel um you know keith wilson i i think our he's kind of said

00:08:55.660 part of the quiet part the quiet part out loud uh yesterday last night after uh the premier's

00:09:00.560 speech that this is a safer question it's more likely to get a better showing and even possibly

00:09:09.140 succeed again it's this is still an uphill battle to succeed but a lot of people who are

00:09:14.520 are soft sovereignists or very frustrated federalists, depending on the terminology

00:09:21.280 you're using here. This gives them permission to vote for the have a vote to have later vote or

00:09:30.660 have a referendum to hold a referendum option, the kind of pro-independence side of it. It gives

00:09:35.100 them a permission to vote for it without the risks involved. Voting for this doesn't mean

00:09:43.100 we wake up tomorrow in the republic of alberta this is a way to send a message to advance things

00:09:48.940 along to demonstrate alberta's grievances that it's upset and wants a radical change to the

00:09:53.820 status quo without actually firing the shot you know without actually throwing the tea into the

00:09:59.580 harbor uh where how do you take to that well i think i think you said it all there derek really

00:10:07.500 and i was looking at it from the point of view of what else could screaming smith realistically do

00:10:15.420 on the one hand if she does nothing just says well they are the judge the judge spoke and that 0.99

00:10:20.380 settles the matter that's not going to satisfy very many people on either side of the argument

00:10:26.140 this at least as you said puts it out there and gives people a chance to

00:10:32.460 express an opinion. I mean, whichever side you're taking, 700,000 people out of a population

00:10:41.720 of four and a half million, not all of whom are old enough to vote, 700,000 people have said that

00:10:46.900 they want to express their opinion on Alberta independence, either staying in Canada or

00:10:52.420 going a different way. That's a sizable amount of people who would be frustrated,

00:10:58.200 rightly so if they don't get that opportunity so it wasn't a perfect solution from the premier's

00:11:05.720 point of view but it certainly will satisfy for now that part of her caucus which is independence

00:11:13.560 minded without alienating that part of the caucus which i see to be now in the ascendant

00:11:19.800 which is wearing uh well more time in the very least but probably a pro calendar position

00:11:26.760 so i think you know this there's some the other thing about the timing of all this very significant

00:11:33.480 last friday we had a the premier had a meeting with prime minister carney they agreed something

00:11:40.680 which a lot of people are pretty uh cynical about but anyway apparently if all goes well

00:11:47.000 you'll get a signal on october the 1st about the pipeline whether whether there's going to be one

00:11:55.080 whether it's going forward right well that's just a couple of weeks before this uh referendum vote

00:12:00.360 which is still not really a referendum vote but it's a signal of how people are feeling

00:12:05.240 and i would think that you'd get a pretty significant read on how albertans really feel

00:12:09.560 if they believe as many will that or mr carney's word something is being done and it'll be good

00:12:17.000 um we'll see how keen they are to pursue the independence track i i think actually that's

00:12:24.040 going to be a significant moment for the independence movement to see where people

00:12:27.800 are still with them if they think that maybe something better could come out of central

00:12:31.240 canada after all so anyone can pick up on this one um i i come back to an earlier point i made

00:12:41.720 that the courts by making this bizarre ruling that uh the duty to consult indigenous groups

00:12:50.520 has to take place before the vote, they have maybe unintentionally gutted the Clarity Act

00:12:58.560 and gutted the Supreme Court of Canada's late 1990s secession reference case,

00:13:05.740 which required that to begin the process of a province seceding or becoming independent,

00:13:12.880 that there must be a clear majority on a clear question.

00:13:16.160 And because they have refused to allow a referendum on a clear question, they have essentially thrown us back to where we were with Quebec's two independence referendums or quasi sovereignty referendums, which is kind of the point here.

00:13:36.460 um very much to its credit the alberta independence movement has had no truck or trade with

00:13:41.920 these weird convoluted questions that we saw in quebec both i think first in 19

00:13:48.140 1980 or whatnot with rennie levesque circa 1980 uh which was this long convoluted essentially it

00:13:56.280 was a paragraph saying you know blah blah blah blah blah and uh sovereignty and association

00:14:03.280 very convoluted uh and then a still convoluted although less so but still quite messy question

00:14:11.480 asked in 1995 the one that nearly passed with 49.9 percent um alberta's independence movement

00:14:18.760 has said we don't want any part of that those are mushy questions they're wishy-washy maybe

00:14:23.580 maybe it helps get you a higher vote turnout on your side but we want to be clear does alberta

00:14:29.020 want to be independent or not very clear to its credit and the court by mucking with this has

00:14:36.160 said you can't have that question kind of necessitating alberta then to have these more

00:14:41.000 convoluted indirect questions sorry i put it to any of you uh has the supreme court of canada

00:14:50.540 gutted its own decisions here and thrown us back into quebec style weird convoluted unclear

00:14:56.680 questions. Well, let me pick up on this, Derek, because I think what Judge Shania Leonard did 1.00

00:15:04.440 was actually establish the Supreme Court as a piece of government as opposed to a judicial

00:15:11.120 proceeding. And I think for anybody who's seriously interested in the politics of the

00:15:16.040 country, that's a tremendously important decision that she made there because she's no longer

00:15:22.740 arbitrating the actions of parliament she has actually inserted herself into the whole decision

00:15:32.660 making process she's not well that's not a new thing our courts have been doing that

00:15:36.580 really ever since uh the charter uh in the constitution act in 1984. 82 knows very well

00:15:44.740 that by making the decision that she made which many people think is highly questionable she has

00:15:51.940 effectively punted that referendum into some time in the next 20 years which was her whole goal now

00:15:59.460 that is a governmental action that is something if that's how people feel about it that's something

00:16:05.860 that the parliament of canada should have had the guts to uh bring forward the the the clarity act

00:16:12.260 and propose an amendment and say no we're not going to do this anymore then the judge could

00:16:17.140 or trade whether that was properly done,

00:16:19.600 but for the judge to simply rewrite the Constitution,

00:16:22.520 which is effectively, you're right,

00:16:23.980 they've been doing it for a long time,

00:16:25.860 but the force of example has pushed this particular judge 0.80

00:16:28.700 into a situation where she is interfering

00:16:31.240 with a very delicate political process. 0.55

00:16:34.940 And, you know, if Alberta ever does become independent,

00:16:41.120 let there not be that kind of relationship

00:16:44.100 between the judiciary and the politics

00:16:46.980 between the unelected officials and the elected officials.

00:16:51.900 This is something that needs to be dealt with by elected officials, not by judges.

00:16:56.360 Well, Corey, this kind of judicial activism inserting itself into the governance process,

00:17:02.400 going into the realm that is supposed to be the purview of Parliament or the legislatures,

00:17:06.580 this has been going on since the Constitution Act 1982.

00:17:10.380 This is not a new thing.

00:17:11.960 But what I think is interesting here, kind of going back to my earlier point,

00:17:15.820 is the federal court here, which remember is still below the Supreme Court,

00:17:21.820 but the federal court in Alberta,

00:17:23.860 it contradicted the Supreme Court in the secession reference case.

00:17:31.680 So this is not just a court against parliament

00:17:34.920 or a court against a provincial legislature.

00:17:38.240 It is a court against the Supreme Court.

00:17:42.180 And so we're left because of this contradictory ruling.

00:17:46.760 So the Supreme Court says you have to have a clear majority on a clear question.

00:17:50.640 And then the federal court here, a Trudeau appointed judge, the federal court says, but you're not allowed to have a clear question.

00:17:59.440 So this leaves you either with no question or a convoluted question.

00:18:03.920 And then that convoluted question, the Supreme Court would then say, very unwightly, is not legitimate grounds to begin the process of negotiating independence.

00:18:15.740 So is it fair to say then that this court has essentially thrown us back into the pre-secession Supreme Court reference case landscape where it's just kind of a wild west and it's forcing us to have a convoluted Quebec-style question on a referendum?

00:18:33.920 yeah it changed the requirements and inserted a poison pill into it but it is temporary or what

00:18:41.320 we'll see about temporary there's another level now that this is going to go up when it goes into

00:18:45.600 appeal and from my understanding the appeals court will have three justices looking at it and they

00:18:51.860 will be basically judging the judgment and this could become more nuanced and there's a better

00:18:58.640 chance that they're going to look at this and say no you didn't have the authority or this wasn't

00:19:03.820 legitimate to be able to override a prior Supreme Court reference case where so much time and effort

00:19:10.040 and dedication was put into it. Or maybe they'll hold it up. If they hold it up, then this is going

00:19:15.520 to go all the way to the Supreme Court. The other wild card, and I'm surprised with how silent

00:19:19.580 they've been so far, though, is Quebec. You know that the sovereigntyist movement over there

00:19:23.540 can't be impressed with this. And, you know, they may not have a majority support for independence

00:19:30.160 in Quebec right now, but even soft independent supporters and so on don't like being told you

00:19:34.500 aren't allowed to consider it, whether it's Alberta or in Quebec. And Justice Leonard might

00:19:39.840 not care if she infuriates Quebecers, but I suspect a higher level of court might take those

00:19:44.580 kinds of things into consideration before changing the rules on what a province may or may not do

00:19:49.160 under the Clarity Act. I'd like to get back into the speech itself last night, Derek, and for the

00:19:57.400 first time Smith coming out solidly on the side of Canada. She said that she's always been in

00:20:04.120 favor of a sovereign Alberta within Canada. But for the first time, she said that she will be

00:20:10.540 voting to stay in Canada. So is she positioning herself to be Captain Canada for the referendum?

00:20:17.860 Is she going to join forces with Jason Kenney, as weird as that could be? And will those two be the

00:20:25.160 top fighters for

00:20:27.060 the Stay in Canada movement.

00:20:29.760 It's going to be interesting

00:20:31.260 because she's sure

00:20:32.580 as strongly as I've ever heard her say 0.83

00:20:35.240 that Alberta needs to stay

00:20:37.160 in Canada. Well, maybe she had 1.00

00:20:39.100 no point.

00:20:41.900 Maybe there was

00:20:43.040 really no alternative. They're so busy

00:20:44.860 organizing to

00:20:47.100 Ooster that she is forced

00:20:49.260 now to take a side

00:20:50.420 and she's not going with the crazies 0.98

00:20:52.720 on the

00:20:54.400 radicals, shall I call them, on the independent

00:20:58.180 because they've clearly rejected her. Oh, you've been talking about Corey.

00:21:03.400 I'm one of those 30s. Now there's talk

00:21:06.320 about doing the same thing to Smith as they did to

00:21:10.320 Kenny and getting individual constituencies to declare

00:21:13.780 non-confidence, and I think they need 22 or 23 of

00:21:18.240 different constituencies to do that, and then that would force

00:21:22.000 uh leadership review and we all remember jason kenny just barely squeaking by but

00:21:27.200 but realizing that it wasn't good enough and uh and he had to resign so i guess well let's remember

00:21:33.040 he he rigged it several times they changed the rules multiple times as they knew they were going

00:21:37.280 to fail so that he cheated just to get like 52 percent or whatever 53 i'm not sure exactly what

00:21:43.280 it was but they cheated just to get that much uh so let's be clear he didn't he didn't actually win

00:21:49.360 But yeah, I take your point. I want to get into Dave's point further, Corey. Smith has, I can zoom out for a second. She is keenly aware that no Alberta Conservative Premier has completed a single term since Ralph Klein in 2004.

00:22:08.960 I was in high school when that happened. She is very aware of it. She very much wants to break that curse and be the first conservative premier to at least finish a single term, quite an accomplishment.

00:22:22.260 and she knows that the threat is not primarily from the NDP it is always from the right populist

00:22:30.280 flank of her own party and she has quite masterfully kept that flank in the party now

00:22:40.060 it's not universally independence it's as I said it's right populist so it's a grab bag of issues

00:22:44.580 there's a Venn diagram there's all sorts of things and you know it the energy behind it was against

00:22:50.240 covid restrictions at a time but a lot of those people were also independence now independence is

00:22:55.320 the issue at the fore of it um so i i know that uh i think we saw you know some of the guys on

00:23:03.440 maybe some of the harder edge of the independence movement we had jeff raff david parker they're

00:23:09.540 calling for the overthrow of smith here um i'm not sure how representative that is of the movement

00:23:15.800 more broadly. I know Parker called for the overthrow of Smith at her last leadership

00:23:20.260 review. She still got like 93, circa 93%. So it didn't seem to have really any impact 0.83

00:23:26.580 then. Wrath, I don't know, maybe he's got more pull. I don't know. But this question

00:23:36.900 is not going to satisfy a lot of people in the independence movement, obviously, because

00:23:40.720 it's not a clear question. But her hands are largely tied by the courts until this gets 0.90

00:23:44.700 through the appellate stage so she's given this as a sort of amuse-bouche or an appetizer to 0.92

00:23:51.080 keep something going at least in the meantime at least let Albertans speak out on the direction

00:23:58.760 they want to go if not the decision itself do you think that is going to be enough to keep most of

00:24:05.560 the independence camp happy with her leadership supporting her continuing as premier or do you

00:24:12.080 think this uh is not going to be enough and actually opens up a threat to her leadership

00:24:16.500 yeah i i think that could be wrong i mean it is true that the threat always comes from the right

00:24:22.900 and she's got to watch that flank but they're the same vocal actors a minority within a minority

00:24:28.360 that have been screaming about her for a couple of years now and as you said a number of those

00:24:32.480 same actors were very active in trying to get a negative leadership review years ago and they

00:24:37.400 garnered 93% support for. Speaking anecdotally, I mean, I've been speaking at a lot of those public

00:24:42.900 meetings lately, and I didn't get home till two in the morning last night from one of them up in

00:24:46.140 Round Hill, which was a good opportunity actually to speak to some people on the ground. And you

00:24:51.800 know, when you get face to face with people, and that's exactly the sort of discussion we were all

00:24:56.960 having last night, people aren't necessarily thrilled with where things have gone or how they

00:25:00.580 have. And they'd like to see, you know, more movement towards independence. But I'm not seeing

00:25:05.580 the inclination to get out the torches and pitchforks for premier smith at that point even

00:25:09.980 if they're not fully happy with her i think it's more of a vocal element on social media of a few

00:25:17.020 rather than representative of the whole who might have a bit more of a pragmatic streak or like

00:25:21.660 other actions smith is done she still can't avoid it i think that's why she's you know if there was

00:25:27.740 no risk at all i think she would just avoid having a referendum altogether she had to offer some kind

00:25:32.060 of bone and this is what it was whether it'll be enough to satisfy i think it will but we'll see

00:25:37.340 i guess in coming weeks uh nigel i'd like your take and maybe dave as well on the other side

00:25:45.660 here smith has been walking the most incredible tightrope i have ever seen a politician walk

00:25:52.380 and she has she has thus far successfully succeeded but the the headlines across canada

00:25:59.660 uh yesterday uh last night and in the evening was alberta's having more or less an independence

00:26:07.020 referendum ish and being she is denounced as a traitor uh despite her saying that she would

00:26:14.460 vote to stay in canada but she thinks this question needs to be settled the people of

00:26:18.300 alberta need to speak she doesn't want this to preoccupy us for all time we have to be able to

00:26:22.300 to move forward in one direction or another. The UCP is a weird coalition right now. It's got

00:26:31.340 a majority of its voters, and probably even bigger majority of its members are Alberta

00:26:37.460 nationalists, broadly speaking, but probably, but independents as well. But there's a big minority

00:26:45.440 of federalists who still vote UCP. There's a big minority of federalists who are still members of

00:26:51.000 the ucp i think the higher up the food chain of the party you go the more federalist it gets and

00:26:55.700 the lower to the grassroots you get the more the more nationalist it is um cory spoke on on the

00:27:02.980 nationalist side about if it's enough does this go too far do you think to keep most federalists

00:27:09.380 who are in the ucp uh from breaking into open revolt against her because i i she uh she's she's 0.99

00:27:17.640 facing uh this is kind of her schlieffen plan she's trying to fight on two fronts and strike

00:27:23.620 one quickly before she can go after the other and uh she's getting it from the federalist side she's

00:27:30.440 getting it from uh you know obviously the left wing you know the nanshiite she's getting it from

00:27:36.120 the federal liberals uh jason kenny has measured his language not to go after her personally he

00:27:43.600 goes after the movement and his criticisms of her have been indirect and tactile uh but other

00:27:49.460 proxies around him have have gone after her directly and you've got people in the ucp nate

00:27:55.520 horner guys like that who are no longer in cabinet who have spoken against there being a referendum

00:28:01.320 but have not gone after her directly where do you think the risk is for her with federalists

00:28:09.040 in her party right now as a potential risk to her leadership,

00:28:12.640 that they break into open revolt.

00:28:15.140 I don't think that's very strong at all, Derek.

00:28:18.120 And the reason that I would say that is that if she has declared,

00:28:22.180 and she has, that she is pro-Canada as opposed to pro-Alberta independence,

00:28:27.740 she is in sync with the larger part of the opinion in Alberta.

00:28:33.540 I mean, the most optimistic polls, and Corey, by all means,

00:28:37.680 correct me if i'm off by a few digits but the most optimistic polls that i have seen in support of

00:28:44.560 alberta independence are less than 40 percent which means that 60 percent of the people polled

00:28:53.520 are pro canada and she has aligned herself with that faction so if this ever comes to a

00:28:59.840 uh real election issue then she has got those people who might not otherwise have been

00:29:07.760 supporters of the ucp on her side maybe not all vote for her but at least they're not

00:29:13.920 well but that's not where i'm going with this question um also i would say i wouldn't call the

00:29:18.240 other side necessarily pro canada it involves a lot of people who hate canada tear down the

00:29:22.000 statues of sir john mcdonald james the anthem i would call those people federalists uh but i

00:29:29.440 take your point i know i know you're going but i know my point is um yes she has declared that

00:29:35.440 she's on the federalist side she'll vote federalist in the referendum but the federalists

00:29:41.840 are pretty outraged that the referendum is taking place anyway even though 400 000 of them signed a 1.00

00:29:47.840 petition demanding a referendum on this uh i mean uh play stupid games win stupid prizes is uh is 0.99

00:29:54.020 the warning i'd have for them but um they're outraged that she's called the referendum to 0.99

00:29:59.280 begin with um so even though she's said she'll vote on the federalist side she is proceeding

00:30:05.480 with the referendum and they're angry about that referendum so that's where i i'm asking i want

00:30:12.200 your opinion on if there's a threat from the federalists within the ucp that she has from

00:30:17.320 their perspective pandered to the nationalists uh that she has uh facilitated them and let this go

00:30:24.080 on too far by allowing a referendum to begin with well 24 hours after the event there probably will

00:30:29.180 be some anger but as they think about it they'll realize it wasn't really much else that she could

00:30:33.640 have done how would they have felt if she had done nothing probably well the issue remains

00:30:38.300 unresolved you've got to get well that's that's what they say they want they want her to do 1.00

00:30:41.860 nothing yeah well what was your cute phrase there silly arguments stupid play stupid games win 1.00

00:30:50.240 stupid prizes no this is this has to be dealt with i mean you may be a federalist but you can't 1.00

00:30:58.060 And just say that when 37%, 40% of your neighbors think very differently to you, that this is something that the premier of the province would just overlook, carry on as if nothing had happened, it needs to be dealt with. 1.00

00:31:11.760 And this actually, in terms of the phrasing of the referendum question, is about as benign as it could get if you are a federalist.

00:31:22.020 But just to remind us all, the question is, should Alberta remain a province of Canada

00:31:33.760 or should the government of Alberta commence the legal process?

00:31:36.940 Well, you know, if you're a Federalist, get up there and vote the way you feel.

00:31:45.060 I think it was apropos.

00:31:46.840 I just had my cuckoo clock.

00:31:48.160 I have to apologize for my cuckoo clock going off.

00:31:50.040 And the whole conversation is a bit cuckoo.

00:31:53.260 So I think it was a bit apropos.

00:31:55.660 Dave, go ahead.

00:31:56.700 I think the Federalists will all see that the courts had tied Premier Smith's hands.

00:32:03.100 She's played the only card she really has left and I think played it quite masterfully.

00:32:08.500 Coming out and then saying that she's going to be Captain Canada will thrill the Federalists

00:32:15.000 because they've now got their leader.

00:32:20.040 And I think she's also taken away the argument that the Nenshiites have that she is a separatist herself.

00:32:27.300 Well, no, she's denied that now and equivalently such that she is not.

00:32:31.960 And she says her party is not.

00:32:34.800 Sorry, yeah, you know, the UCP caucus is not.

00:32:38.780 So that takes away all the Nenshi arguments that she's a separatist leader running a separatist government. 0.99

00:32:45.740 For anybody to say that Daniel Smith is now a separatist, they're just silly. 0.55

00:32:50.040 it's just silly she's not a separatist at all yeah well i think their argument is uh even if 0.86

00:32:55.640 she is not their argument is she's pandering to the nationalists she's facilitating the nationalists

00:33:03.400 and there's some argument there she is allowing the process to go forward and and i would say

00:33:08.760 the government is not uh pro-independence but the membership and the voters are dominantly pro

00:33:16.200 independence and i think that is a fair criticism but you know as as nigel said what is she gonna

00:33:21.720 do she's damned if she does damned if she doesn't uh if she didn't didn't call a referendum and the

00:33:27.720 the anger would would would grow and i think the independence uh independence thoughts would would

00:33:33.640 would get higher but by doing this now i think she's cutting the uh you know she's trying to 0.83

00:33:38.360 cut the legs out from the uh from the independent supporters and if it comes back in october that

00:33:44.280 let's say 30 percent uh of people vote for uh you know trying to succeed from canada and 70

00:33:51.960 say to stay then i think she's got the argument that she can uh you know this this may go away

00:33:56.760 for several years the whole independence argument not necessarily to replace her as leader but

00:34:02.680 uh certainly the the independence yeah i uh i i'm not with you dave in saying that she is going to be

00:34:11.400 the the leader of the federalist side here i mean she's declared that she's going to vote that way

00:34:16.160 um but i'm uh you know i'll put this to whoever wants to pick up uh in the group here but i don't

00:34:24.020 think she's going to be out stumping every day at pro-federalist rallies the people who are going

00:34:30.080 to come out to pro-federalist rallies are overwhelmingly going to be ndp supporters

00:34:33.760 federal liberal supporters uh because the majority of her own voters and the and probably the big

00:34:40.660 majority of her party's members support independence. They're nationalists, or Alberta

00:34:45.620 nationalists. So I think she's declared herself for it. She'll probably make a few statements.

00:34:51.780 But I suspect she's going to try to keep a fairly low profile during the campaign. I think

00:34:59.740 the leaders of this are going to be dominantly Jason Kenney and Nahib Nenshi,

00:35:07.940 and Pierre Pauly I've said

00:35:10.400 yesterday when this was announced

00:35:12.500 that he's going to be out here campaigning

00:35:13.840 he'll be here as well

00:35:15.220 but I would

00:35:18.240 posit that Danielle Smith 0.99

00:35:20.040 has declared herself on one side 0.96

00:35:22.200 but she's going to fight kind of a phony 1.00

00:35:24.220 war she's going to sit behind the lines here 1.00

00:35:26.360 and let this play out 0.99

00:35:27.740 well I would

00:35:32.240 agree with that

00:35:32.960 go ahead Corey

00:35:35.960 well i'm just saying that again she's still she's put something out there but she's still

00:35:42.460 maintaining the tightrope walk and she can't fall too heavily on one side or the other so she's

00:35:48.040 standing in the middle right now she's declared herself a federalist yet offered the the mechanism 0.85

00:35:53.280 for independence people to continue to move the movement forward but to actually get out and

00:35:59.200 overtly campaign on this would really split her movement it really would upset uh the independent 0.96

00:36:06.320 side of things that she's trying to keep piped down and quell them there's no sense in flaming

00:36:12.080 them further they're already a little upset with the the phrasing of the question so i think

00:36:17.000 occasionally she's going to pop up and reassert that she is indeed in favor of a united canada

00:36:21.780 but she will leave it to lookastic kenny and the rest to do the actual formal formal campaigning

00:36:27.780 and she can sit in the background 0.97

00:36:29.720 because falling solidly on one side or the

00:36:31.800 other is asking to

00:36:33.760 split the party

00:36:34.360 okay well

00:36:37.260 we had a great conversation

00:36:39.220 I like pipeline was just one really

00:36:41.360 good topic and we can really dig into it

00:36:43.600 and we're not too limited by

00:36:45.460 keeping it to shorter segments

00:36:47.500 so I think we had a great

00:36:49.540 chat today I want to thank everyone

00:36:51.460 Dave, Corey, Nigel

00:36:53.440 and John on production and everyone

00:36:55.580 who joined us here today before I let everyone go though

00:36:57.600 i want to introduce uh this has been six and a half years coming it's just we finally had the

00:37:03.980 right staff to make it happen the launch of the western standard store um there's no conspiracy

00:37:11.040 about the timing here but uh we've got some really great items i want to point you to i don't know if

00:37:17.120 john can bring up a screenshot here of the store or not but uh western standard store.news is where

00:37:24.140 can go we've got lots of great stuff we've got uh the alberta proud collection we've got a ralph

00:37:30.540 klein collection uh some great images of ralph flipping the bird you can put on your shirt

00:37:36.380 uh a lot a lot of really cool items you can check out uh we've kept the profit margin absolutely

00:37:42.860 minimal uh most of what you're paying for is just the manufacturing and the shipping uh what very

00:37:49.500 small profit margin we have is going to go to support the newsroom and columnists of the Western

00:37:55.820 Standard keeping our operations going. But we've got a lot of really cool stuff there. So check us

00:38:01.220 out at westernstandardstore.news. Also, if you're not yet a subscriber, make sure you go to

00:38:06.200 westernstandard.news. Click on subscribe, $10 a month or $100 a year for unlimited access to all

00:38:11.180 Western Standard content and to support the work we do. We're going to have a lot more to say about

00:38:16.160 this this is going to dominate everything in Alberta possibly in Canada all the way through

00:38:22.420 to October 19th uh we're just getting started the cuckoo's just begun so uh the Western Standard

00:38:28.900 is where you're going to get a front row seat to all the cuckoo thank you very much everyone

00:38:32.560 for joining us and God bless

00:38:46.160 We'll be right back.

Western Standard - May 22, 2026

THE PIPELINE： Making sense of Alberta’s kinda-sorta independence referendum

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript