Western Standard - The Pipeline： Polls point to national Conservative majority

00:00:00.000 Welcome to The Pipeline. I'm Corey Morgan, the Alberta columnist with the Western Standard.

00:00:18.180 This is our weekly panel show covering the top stories and issues and dissecting what's been

00:00:24.120 going on in Canada over the last week. So the folks joining me today, well, one of the regulars

00:00:30.140 on the pipeline, of course, is our opinion editor, Nigel Hannaford. How's it going, Nigel?

00:00:34.920 So far, so good, Corey. Great show today, I think.

00:00:37.740 Oh, I think we got a lot to talk about.

00:00:40.040 Oh, there's never a shortage.

00:00:41.000 No, there certainly isn't. And yeah, we will certainly be getting into it right away. Oh,

00:00:46.380 the glasses are coming off, so we know.

00:00:48.140 This is serious stuff.

00:00:48.960 This is serious. Okay, as well, from Saskatchewan, we've got Chris Oldcorn on.

00:00:54.120 I'm not so regular on the show, but always welcome and lots to add.

00:00:58.380 A very prolific writer for the Western Standard.

00:01:00.220 How are you doing, Chris?

00:01:01.340 I'm doing fantastic.

00:01:02.760 Thanks for having me on.

00:01:04.020 Oh, much appreciated.

00:01:05.820 And yes, Derek's indisposed.

00:01:07.880 There will be a story coming on about that.

00:01:09.940 I should bring it up just on a lighter note.

00:01:12.760 The video went out to Derek's precious new motorcycle.

00:01:16.520 And I understand why he'd be upset.

00:01:18.000 You know, it's a big purchase.

00:01:18.880 but a rough-looking fellow went out in the back and tipped it over just randomly out of the blue

00:01:24.480 there and did some damage to it and uh derek rounded somebody up from the newsroom and they

00:01:28.480 managed to catch this fella and that somebody was sean pulser yes when not reporting energy shows

00:01:35.200 remarkable industries and there's a gumshoe yes the western standard justice team 0.97

00:01:44.400 and there'll be a don't mess with me i got friends in the western standard that's right

00:01:48.880 there'll be a story pending on that one. Well, aside from our local crime and justice issues,

00:01:54.280 we got a few other things to talk about today. Of course, the trial for a couple of the organizers

00:02:00.640 of the Freedom Convoy last year in Ottawa has gotten underway. It did the other day with Tamara

00:02:06.560 Leach and Chris Barber. And of course, there'll be a lot to discuss and what that trial means,

00:02:10.760 where it might be going, and how people are going to receive it. As well, in Manitoba,

00:02:15.260 out in the West, the provincial election has kicked off over there. And it looks like they

00:02:19.040 got a pretty tight race building up between the PCs and the NDP out there. So we'll talk a bit

00:02:23.900 about that and what's going on. Then that's a big story. It's been a big one with the standard

00:02:29.100 leaked memo saying that record numbers of immigration have been fueling the housing

00:02:34.920 crisis within Canada as much as the Liberals have been denying it. It sounds like they kind of

00:02:38.240 always knew that was the case out there. So yes, that will be an interesting conversation as well.

00:02:47.280 Let's start things out though with talking about Tamara Leach and Chris Barber.

00:02:54.460 Nigel, yeah, I mean, where do we start with this? You know, we've talked about it a long time.

00:02:58.460 It's been building, but it's kind of like we're revisiting the whole

00:03:02.380 the Emergencies Act and lockdown and the protests and everything all over again.

00:03:08.480 Well, you know, Corey, I think people who are expecting a rerun of Perry Mason with dramatic incidents and people pointing at each other and shouting each other down are probably in for a disappointment.

00:03:23.720 So far, it's been like watching paint dry.

00:03:26.880 it almost has to be that way as lawyers make their case

00:03:34.120 and put the evidence out in front of the jury.

00:03:38.980 But, you know, it strikes me, Corey,

00:03:42.240 that in the end, whatever the decision of the court,

00:03:46.680 and obviously we have our ideas about what that ought to be,

00:03:51.540 you can't get away from the fact that this is a political event.

00:03:56.880 But it was a political protest, and the protesters are now on trial.

00:04:04.720 So where does this thing land in the end?

00:04:11.160 There's going to be, it is probably in the liberal government's interest

00:04:15.540 to get this out of the way now, two years before the next election,

00:04:19.380 because as a political event, I think everybody is going to have an opinion,

00:04:23.320 and they're going to have a strongly held opinion.

00:04:26.880 Well, this is a good point, Nigel. And this is very divided with people. I've been watching,

00:04:32.420 of course, the social media buzz and so on. There's not many people looking at a gray area

00:04:36.400 in this. They feel either these organizers are guilty of a high crime and should have the full

00:04:41.140 force of the law imposed upon them or people feeling that they should be just, you know,

00:04:44.960 that it should be let free. They never did anything wrong. They expressed their free protest

00:04:49.360 and should let it go. Chris, you, of course, have been watching this closely as well. All of us have

00:04:56.240 over the last year and some now.

00:04:59.380 What are your interpretation of this trial

00:05:02.000 as it gets underway?

00:05:03.800 So far, yes, it's been pretty just procedural so far.

00:05:07.720 The first main witness came up today,

00:05:11.340 which was the incident commander for the Ottawa police.

00:05:16.140 And basically what he said was they were overwhelmed.

00:05:19.420 They didn't expect as many people to show up

00:05:22.840 in terms of like the trucks and so on.

00:05:24.860 they vastly underestimated the size of the convoy and that caused them problems because

00:05:30.700 they were stretched so thin, which just showed that there was plenty of people in Canada

00:05:36.220 who were upset with the lockdowns that were persistent and mandates and so on for vaccine

00:05:42.880 and all the masking and everything else that went on. And of course, rightly so, people went

00:05:49.420 and they protested which in a free country you are allowed to do um which begs the question if

00:05:55.580 you uh don't follow what the government is saying in this country do you still have the ability to

00:06:01.900 go out there and say what you think uh without fear of being arrested and prosecuted um and

00:06:09.180 possibly i mean they're both looking at you know possibly you know 10 years in jail or more which

00:06:14.780 is for a protest organizer. Not to mention there was all kinds of leaks that came out

00:06:23.420 that shouldn't have been leaked to the media in terms of communication between both of them that's

00:06:28.300 now out there in the public. So there's all kinds of questionable things that have happened

00:06:32.940 even before this trial started yesterday. Well yeah and that's something that I think

00:06:38.300 there's a lot of symbolism going on right now. Something that the courts will have to prove and

00:06:42.620 indicate is malintent on the part of the organizers. They weren't looking to commit a high

00:06:49.120 crime or harm anybody with this protest. There's no evidence of such. I mean, things really took

00:06:55.360 off in a way that I think nobody saw coming, whether it was the Tamara Leach and Chris Barber

00:06:59.940 or the Ottawa police force. And I think the prosecution, I mean, they're going to have to

00:07:05.900 try and indicate that these are potentially dangerous people if they really want a strong

00:07:10.000 sentence, because otherwise you're really just being vindictive and trying to go after them.

00:07:14.840 Yeah, and the right to protest has got to be more than the right to write a letter to your MP.

00:07:22.480 You know, and unfortunately, protests are inconvenient for people around them.

00:07:29.720 Forget about this one for a moment.

00:07:31.080 If you happen to live near the legislature in Edmonton, and there's a group of people,

00:07:37.460 thousands of them perhaps who were making a noise one afternoon well that's inconvenient now that

00:07:43.380 they will say well this went on for weeks and it did but in in in principle it's the same thing

00:07:51.620 and the point was a valid one and how do you nobody went around breaking property

00:08:01.540 quite the reverse in fact nobody made a mess of the streets quite the reverse in fact

00:08:10.380 and i understand from reports at the time that even petty crime was down in that area

00:08:16.160 while uh while the convoy was there uh so i don't know how the courts will measure

00:08:24.380 the proportionality of an occupation.

00:08:29.620 They will want to call it an occupation.

00:08:32.120 They already have tried to call it an occupation.

00:08:34.740 And of course, the lawyer for Ms. Leach and Mr. Barber said,

00:08:40.040 no, no, no, it's not an occupation, it's a protest, is it?

00:08:43.940 But the proportionality of it may be what the thing turns on,

00:08:48.020 that they go too far for too long.

00:08:50.140 David Plylariouf Leach If I could just hop on what Nigel just said

00:08:52.220 there a second ago about the crime. A couple of months ago, I was on a Twitter space with

00:08:57.380 Sockwell Day. And he was in Ottawa at the time. And he said he felt the safest walking from where

00:09:03.520 he lived to his office during the convoy than at any other time in Ottawa. And he has spent a long

00:09:09.640 time in Ottawa. So that's just one example of, you know, crime was down. I mean, you don't show up

00:09:16.200 bouncy castles when you're trying to commit crimes. Yeah, well, and the proportion, as Nigel

00:09:22.760 was saying, and the extent of the prosecution on this, I mean, we've seen past large protests. It's

00:09:28.240 quite a while for some people. If you remember the Occupy movement that happened and in city parks

00:09:33.180 all across North America, there were protesters setting up camp literally for months before the

00:09:37.720 police even moved on them. And I never remembered any of those protest leaders ever having such a

00:09:44.340 force of the law coming down i think there were some fines issued and a few minor things but

00:09:48.340 not a case where they're held without bail for for 50 some days at a time and and now relentlessly

00:09:53.700 pursued through the court system like this well you know if the government is going to prevail

00:09:58.740 in this prosecution and i'll say it again this is a political prosecution they are going to have to

00:10:05.780 show that the convoy leaders wanted to bring down the government i think they will not be able to

00:10:13.860 do that because that was never the intent and nothing like that was ever proposed they will

00:10:22.500 also have to explain why the prime minister would not even meet with leaders of the convoy right at

00:10:29.540 the start uh that was an option and in the first hours and days of the of the arrival of those

00:10:41.380 trucks if the prime minister had said all right you know send me to bring the leaders in let's

00:10:49.700 let's meet in a neutral ground you know there's plenty of hotels around there with large ballrooms

00:10:58.020 maybe everybody would have been satisfied if they'd been able to give a thorough airing of

00:11:04.340 their grievances to the prime minister himself there was never a sense in which if we don't get

00:11:13.780 what we want if we don't bring the government down we're staying here forever well and again

00:11:20.660 it would have gathered the prime even if a senior minister had gone or just somebody to show an

00:11:25.060 indication of listening even if it wasn't well intentioned but just to go through the motions

00:11:30.500 go down and say, we sat with them. They're intractable. They're extreme. Now we can no

00:11:35.140 longer negotiate. We have to work on getting out. But they never even did that first step of

00:11:39.700 talking with them. And that says a lot. And it stole, I think, the moral high ground from their

00:11:45.000 ability to move in and prosecute any protesters or remove them. Well, it was never a violent crowd.

00:11:50.980 I mean, there are certainly some protests that we've all witnessed over the years where you

00:11:55.420 probably wouldn't want to go down there and talk to the and talk to the crowd uh or even have them 0.76

00:12:02.860 into a hotel room it would just turn into a circus but this was one like these are these are basically

00:12:08.860 law-abiding people yeah and it was there was no believe in the system you'd need some degree of

00:12:15.820 security fair enough but i remember i believe it was before he was the prime minister but

00:12:20.460 uh trudeau sat down with justice or justice chief theresa spence when she had her uh amazing weight 0.98

00:12:27.580 gaining hunger strike uh on uh parliament hill and uh yes again you know nothing changed but he

00:12:35.100 gave the time to speak to her but i mean i'll go down and i'll start with chris though i guess

00:12:39.260 on this though and that was what we do is we speculate and guess like chris

00:12:43.020 or i'll start with myself as well uh in guessing how this court case is going to end up and how

00:12:47.580 how people are going to react to it. And I think that the justice is going to head to the mushy

00:12:53.500 middle. They're going to convict them on a couple of charges. They're going to throw out a few others

00:12:56.680 and probably won't give them any jail time. They'll say you've put in enough time served with

00:13:01.100 your time in remand. And nobody's going to be happy about it, though, because the people who

00:13:06.000 want blood are going to want them to do more time in jail. And the people, of course, supportive of

00:13:10.320 Leach and Barber are going to say, hey, no, they should be exonerated on this. And they'll probably

00:13:15.520 go to appeals, but that's where I feel things are going to be going. But where do you think

00:13:20.360 they are, Chris? Well, this is a judge-only trial. There's no jury. I think that the judge will have

00:13:28.520 to look at it based on the merits of the case. I don't think there's anything that suggests they

00:13:33.980 were trying to overthrow the government. I mean, no one said that. You can't find either of these

00:13:40.060 people, or for that matter, the organizers of the Freedom Convoy and the people who are there,

00:13:44.720 no one was saying we're here to overthrow the government. And that's going to be a hard case

00:13:49.860 to make when you have all those communications between the organizers and no one ever said it,

00:13:56.860 or even for that matter, inferred it. So at the end, I think you're right. I think it'll come

00:14:01.160 down to they'll get a slap on the wrist, maybe some community service hours at best, or maybe

00:14:06.560 I don't think you're going to see them doing any jail time at all for it. I think this 16-day

00:14:12.980 trial is really just more for show than anything else. But at the end of the day, I think you're

00:14:19.780 right, Corey, I don't see them spending much time in jail, if any, and it'll be basically a slap on

00:14:25.380 the wrist. I think, Chris, that the charges are mischief and encouraging others to commit mischief.

00:14:30.100 Is that not correct? Yeah, there's mischief, intimidation, obstructing police officer,

00:14:35.560 counseling others to do the same thing. Chris has an additional charge about obstructing a highway

00:14:41.300 because of his vehicle, but other than that, like, these are not charges that make you

00:14:50.520 be like, wow, these are dangerous criminals, we better lock them up for a decade.

00:14:54.520 Yeah.

00:14:55.440 Depends what point the government really wants to make, and I know that people who believe

00:15:00.160 in the judicial system would be quick to say, well, it's not the government that's going

00:15:04.320 to make the decision, it's going to be the judge, but I think we all know that...

00:15:09.640 Judges are appointed by the government.

00:15:16.200 We will have our own expectations, yes.

00:15:23.020 Anyway, are we allowed to wish Tamara Leach luck? 1.00

00:15:27.840 I believe so.

00:15:28.720 This is an opinion broadcast.

00:15:30.480 We're putting out our point of view on this,

00:15:33.020 and that's why I'm saying we'll even go down the speculation road,

00:15:35.320 and we have the right to be completely wrong in guessing

00:15:37.760 how the rulings may come in this, but I think most of us are wishing Tamara and Chris the best

00:15:42.960 of this. I mean, we know that they're not odious, dangerous criminals that are going to go out and

00:15:47.280 cause harm should they not be locked up. This is very much a show trial.

00:15:53.920 No, it's sad. I think a lot of it comes down to points of pride, too, though. You know,

00:15:58.720 the government was embarrassed. The government was, the prime minister himself was embarrassed.

00:16:03.440 He appeared on international circles to have lost control of his own country, his own people.

00:16:08.740 And now they're vindictive.

00:16:10.380 They want to slap back.

00:16:12.140 And that's not the proper reason for justice.

00:16:14.760 Vengeance should never be a part of justice.

00:16:17.620 You said it.

00:16:18.680 That's exactly right.

00:16:20.500 Well, we'll keep watching and waiting.

00:16:21.940 And as I said, I share it.

00:16:23.600 I wish Tamara the best and Chris as well.

00:16:26.700 And I can't speak for yourself, Chris, but I imagine your sentiment's similar.

00:16:31.440 Yes, it is.

00:16:31.900 And just to clarify, the Chris on trial isn't me, it's Chris Barber.

00:16:35.780 Yes.

00:16:36.340 Yeah.

00:16:37.060 Okay.

00:16:37.820 No, you're not.

00:16:38.700 They want to put you on trial for something else.

00:16:40.560 Yeah, I'm just covering it.

00:16:42.220 Okay.

00:16:43.180 So I should turn to and speak to guys who are standing up for our rights as well

00:16:47.700 and not on the streets in a protest sort of way, but as, I guess you could say,

00:16:53.080 an advocacy group.

00:16:54.100 And that's the Canadian Shooting Sports Association.

00:16:56.660 They've been a fantastic sponsor for us at the Western Standard for quite some time.

00:17:00.460 And they've been a fantastic advocate and resource for firearm owners, of course, for a long, long time as well.

00:17:07.720 We've got, I mean, among the many, many issues that are coming from the federal government infringing on our rights,

00:17:12.180 a government that ideologically wants to take away your right to use and enjoy and own firearms safely and responsibly.

00:17:20.240 So the CSSA, they push back, they stand up for you.

00:17:23.840 Plus, they have all sorts of resources on their site, as any association would.

00:17:27.620 If you own firearms and want to maintain your right to own them, you've got to be a member of the CSSA.

00:17:33.080 It's an investment in your own rights.

00:17:35.080 Check them out.

00:17:36.140 Its website is cssa-cila.org.

00:17:40.280 It's the Canadian Shooting Sports Association.

00:17:42.660 Just Google them.

00:17:43.600 Take out a membership.

00:17:44.400 It's not that much.

00:17:45.300 And they will help continue to make sure that you can enjoy those firearms.

00:17:49.540 Because it's just, again, as we're seeing with these trials, we've got a government that's not looking out for our rights.

00:17:54.520 And if we don't stand up for ourselves, nobody else will.

00:17:57.620 All right. Well, let's go to the federal front. It might tie in a little bit indirectly with this trial. I mean, it's one of those things that actually has put our federal conservatives in a rock and a hard place on a divisive sort of issue. But right now, polls are certainly turning. I mean, we're seeing a big change.

00:18:14.500 It's not just an outlier. A lot of polls have been coming out now federally, and they've been pretty clear that the Liberal Party of Canada is in a polling freefall, as far as that goes, and the Conservatives are really gaining ground.

00:18:26.260 For the first time, we're starting to see some pretty clear evidence of a Conservative majority, potentially, with the polling as things sit today, of course.

00:18:36.020 we understand it's a snapshot but boy you know that's that's been a turn around this last few

00:18:41.460 months nigel i mean we've really seen just such a shift where they seem to have been kind of 1.00

00:18:45.400 locked in the in this you know static spot for so long and now they are just on the move but what

00:18:50.800 do you think is really behind this change well just to add some specific details to what you've

00:18:56.000 just said there they we're talking about a a poll released by 338 uh that is an aggregator or that

00:19:04.860 looks at everybody's polls and certain other considerations as well, like records and history

00:19:09.980 and so forth. And they come up with a projection. And what they're projecting is 170, I mean,

00:19:16.140 this is if the election had happened yesterday, 179 seats for the Conservatives out of 338.

00:19:27.000 And the Liberals cut way back down to 101. So that is, that's their projection.

00:19:34.020 Now, you know, if I were a liberal strategist and I had been asked by a friendly television station to comment,

00:19:44.300 I would tell the CBC that polls are for dogs and that in two years' time, who knows what the situation will be.

00:19:55.980 But our sheep always come back to the fold when there's a stark choice.

00:20:00.880 And certainly for the last two elections, that has been the case.

00:20:05.880 But you'll notice that the vote turnout for the Liberals has declined with every election since 2015.

00:20:14.920 You know, they got a handsome majority in 2015.

00:20:17.720 They didn't get a handsome majority in 2019, and they polled even less in 2021,

00:20:23.840 to the point that they actually had to have this hand-holding agreement with the NDP,

00:20:28.220 which has not served the NDP, well, not that I care, but the liberals have actually been trending downwards now

00:20:39.460 ever since they were elected in 2015.

00:20:43.440 And what this poll is showing is that since the last election in 2021, the trending down is continuing.

00:20:52.520 So this is a long-term movement.

00:20:56.360 who knows whether the numbers will be just exactly as they are today in two years time

00:21:05.400 but the liberals have got a serious problem of losing public enthusiasm public trust

00:21:12.880 and credibility and you know if i can just say one last thing cory there is there's a way that

00:21:21.080 these things work the first time you screw up everybody talks about it for a while and then

00:21:28.500 life goes on and then comes a second time and the third time and people start to forget what the

00:21:35.300 original ones were but you know what they do remember there was something this guy is always

00:21:43.520 screwing up. And when the media gets hold of that idea, suddenly things start to change and you no

00:21:55.040 longer get the benefit of the doubt. It happens to every government and it is happening to this one

00:22:02.400 and their problem is that they can't get a handle on it, they keep fueling it. And so I would say

00:22:09.640 that this this this whatever the whatever the spinmeisters say this is not going to be uh not

00:22:16.920 going to be happy day in the pmo no i mean there's no doubt i mean if you live and die by the polls

00:22:23.320 when you're in politics whether you want to admit it or not yeah and they do their own internals and

00:22:27.440 it's true it hey if it could get this low after two years it can climb back up within two years

00:22:31.980 this doesn't necessarily uh you know mean something but it bodes terribly as you said

00:22:36.520 it's a trend. This isn't an outlier. This isn't a spike. It just continues to drift down. And as

00:22:42.640 you said, it's one scandal or problem or misstep after another. Chris, what do you see as standing

00:22:50.120 out? I mean, it is a cumulative problem that's going on, but it does seem to be accelerating

00:22:53.980 lately too. What is it that's causing a more recent loss in confidence and support for the

00:23:01.060 Liberals in your view? Well, we can go to actually another poll that we had last week

00:23:06.800 about young voters, voters in their 20s, between 20 and 29. Predominantly, they were, you know,

00:23:14.700 liberal supporters, and it has just been, once again, a downward trend. So just from the beginning

00:23:20.960 of August to the last week of August, they went from 26% support with people in their 20s

00:23:28.380 All the way down to 16% in one month. And voters, those young liberal voters have been going both directions. The NDP has about 31% support now in people in their 20s. But here's an astounding number. The conservatives are only almost at 40%. They're like 39.7% I believe it was in the poll support among voters in their 20s.

00:23:54.760 And I think it's because Pierre has been hammering on affordability issues, and that is playing well with them because, you know, their incomes are lower than people in their 40s and 50s.

00:24:06.680 So things are hitting them harder and they're trying to get in the housing market and they can't because we're just not straight up, not building enough houses for the amount of people that we're bringing into the country and that are already here.

00:24:19.620 We have been not building enough for a long, long time.

00:24:22.200 And it's a cumulative effect. And I honestly think it's it's going to the grocery store and the dream of buying a home is making a lot of voters in their 20s really disillusioned with the Liberal Party, particularly the one led by Justin Trudeau.

00:24:38.200 I don't think they feel that they can relate to him in any way, shape or form presently.

00:24:42.200 Yeah, and that's got to be making them sweat when a key component of your base support is losing again, they're not losing support, you know, or further among people who are already strong conservative demographics, it's the youth that should make them sweat like that was their stronghold. And yeah, I'm well past my 20s. But I remember it well, and you're, you're full of ideals at that age, you know, and that's where you could vote based on those. But you're also your wallet tends to be pretty empty. My 20s, I mean, times were tight, you got the young kids in the house, you

00:25:12.180 you're still building up your fortune, whatever it may be, furniture, and paying off a car and so on.

00:25:18.520 You're very sensitive to cost of living issues.

00:25:22.040 And you often don't necessarily have a big buffer to get you through spikes or times when it's going high.

00:25:27.140 So, you know, they don't, they're not feeling, I think, that the Trudeau government can turn this around.

00:25:33.320 I think that's part of what's really changing that for the youth right now.

00:25:35.960 Well, I'm sure it is.

00:25:37.260 And you know, the question that that raises is,

00:25:40.520 will the old liberal tactics work?

00:25:45.160 In the past, in past elections, they have trotted

00:25:50.460 out the purple dinosaur arguments.

00:25:52.860 You know what I'm talking about.

00:25:54.160 Stephen Winick Jr.: I remember it well, yes.

00:25:55.460 Stephen Winick Jr.: Okay.

00:25:56.760 And they would want, they would love to be able to say

00:26:01.060 that the conservative leader is, you know, he's a closet pro-choice, pro-life advocate,

00:26:10.740 and that, you know, gay marriage will be under attack if he's elected prime minister. Well,

00:26:18.740 you know, Pierre Polliver, I mean, not the social conservatives like him for this, but

00:26:22.980 Pierre Polliver has made it very clear that he is pro-choice. He went out and actually said he is.

00:26:29.700 He didn't kind of beat around the bush and say, well, I, you know, I personally am pro-life,

00:26:34.280 but I wouldn't legislate, which is what conservative leaders tend to say.

00:26:39.320 He said he's pro-choice.

00:26:41.060 Well, there goes that issue.

00:26:42.720 You're not going to be able to run a campaign of innuendo based on that.

00:26:47.620 So what about other aspects of social conservatism?

00:26:50.800 Well, you know, he has a very diverse caucus.

00:26:54.620 Let's put it that way.

00:26:55.320 And again, you know, if that, if the liberals try

00:26:59.080 to make that an issue, he can just put certain people

00:27:03.320 on center stage and they don't have to say whether they,

00:27:07.580 you know, what particular aspect of diversity they represent,

00:27:11.420 they just, everybody knows what they stand for.

00:27:14.620 So there goes that.

00:27:15.920 So, you know, what are they going to do?

00:27:17.880 Are they going to try and claim he's actually a Russian agent?

00:27:20.880 You know, it worked on Trump, I guess, but, you know,

00:27:24.300 Could it work on pure polymer?

00:27:25.700 Where do these people go?

00:27:26.860 Well, yeah, they're guns running out of bullets.

00:27:28.840 I mean, you brought up, it's funny,

00:27:29.680 you just talked about Day came up recently

00:27:31.180 and that's where the purple dinosaur thing came from.

00:27:33.220 That was from Warren Kinsella when he pulled that stunt.

00:27:36.200 And Kinsella has been very critical of the Trudeau liberals.

00:27:39.820 Like the pragmatic liberals of the nineties though,

00:27:43.480 don't seem to be there anymore.

00:27:44.820 It's a government populated by ideologues.

00:27:47.400 And I would think if they could regain confidence

00:27:50.880 in the fiscal thing,

00:27:51.720 they need to pull up some people right now to say,

00:27:54.100 These are strong financial managers.

00:27:55.980 These are things we can do to make your life more affordable.

00:27:59.740 And they don't seem to have them around anywhere.

00:28:01.960 There's no more Paul Martins.

00:28:03.160 There's no, you know, responsible liberals that they can bring forth.

00:28:08.280 So they're in a tough position.

00:28:11.500 And Jagmeet Singh a couple of years ago even said that the liberals are taking his best policies.

00:28:16.820 Well, that's because the Liberal Party just kept shifting to the left and took over a lot of the things that the NDP was pushing.

00:28:26.180 And they've almost become the NDP.

00:28:28.220 And unfortunately for them, most Canadians don't line up with a lot of the NDP policies.

00:28:34.740 That's why they don't get that many seats.

00:28:36.580 And the Liberals have tried to move into that territory, and it hasn't worked.

00:28:41.460 And, yeah.

00:28:42.780 That's a very good point.

00:28:44.160 I mean, this partnership with Jagmeet Singh, they can't help but then start wearing some

00:28:48.540 of the NDP policies, which, again, if the majority of Canadians wanted to go as far

00:28:53.480 left as the NDP, we would have had an NDP government by now.

00:28:56.120 Yes.

00:28:56.600 And the thing with this poll is that it is so overwhelmingly in favor of the conservatives,

00:29:03.860 it excludes the possibility of a continuation of a liberal NDP alliance, because 179 is

00:29:12.160 It's an absolute majority out of 338 seats.

00:29:19.920 This has got to be deeply concerning to the prime minister and to the people around him.

00:29:25.760 They'll smile and make light of it, make all the, you know, the dog comments, but things

00:29:32.900 are not going their way.

00:29:33.900 And frankly, you know what it is, Corey, ultimately, it's the hypocrisy that gets you.

00:29:39.800 always the is when you say you stand for this and then do that and that's the record of this

00:29:47.320 government and people can't remember the details but they know it when they see it and that's what's

00:29:53.420 forming their opinions now imagine if i was a struggling young parent and i see a prime

00:29:58.300 minister in six thousand dollar a night hotel rooms in a governor general jet setting i start

00:30:02.600 to get a little tired of it eventually just to chime in one other thing there too um picking

00:30:09.260 piggybacking on something that Nigel said there. It's no longer the conservative party. When you

00:30:14.460 see a picture of all of their MPs, it's no longer a conservative party. You can't use the argument

00:30:20.100 that it's just a bunch of old white guys because it's not. It's very diverse. It looks very much

00:30:25.760 like Canada does. And it shows that conservatives can come from any part of Canadian society and

00:30:32.680 have those conservative values. And it used to be that they would just pull out that old sort of

00:30:39.620 boogeyman, bunch of boogeyman arguments, like Nigel was saying. But that's getting harder and

00:30:43.700 harder to do when you look at the conservative party and who are their voters, who are their

00:30:50.880 MPs, who are their candidates. It's quite a diverse party. You know, Chris, that's a very

00:30:57.000 good point and i i think the uh the the old liberal assumption that anybody who is anything

00:31:03.240 other than white is a natural liberal rests on the assumption that if you're not white you must

00:31:10.680 be a victim and they've played to that but you know look at the kind of people who are getting

00:31:19.080 elected as conservatives. They are people who have conservative ideas, and they may come

00:31:26.840 from somewhere else, or they may come from a non-white. We've just elected here in Calvary 0.99

00:31:33.640 Heritage, we've elected Chivalry Magender. He is not a white guy. He is, but he is an 0.79

00:31:39.960 out-and-out conservative. I know the man very well. He is not, he never was or ever could have been

00:31:48.200 a liberal voter and yet the liberal party behaves as though they think well if you are anything but

00:31:54.440 white then you properly belong with us yeah well and she was an excellent example and i mean yeah

00:32:00.600 i've known him a while too and he's fantastic and he's an example too of the next generation

00:32:05.480 of immigrants that i i'm not sure if she was born in canada or not he's been he grew up in calgary

00:32:10.280 his english is better than mine i believe if we talk one-on-one well i wasn't going to bring that

00:32:14.280 But since you mentioned it.

00:32:16.280 He's certainly more classy than I am when he speaks anyways.

00:32:19.280 And that changes that demographic as well.

00:32:22.280 There's a lot of great conservatives from all cultures and walks, and they're capitalizing on it.

00:32:28.280 That's not a recent thing, by the way.

00:32:29.280 I mean, it was the same under the Harvard government.

00:32:31.280 It was just never particularly recognized as such.

00:32:34.280 All right.

00:32:35.280 Well, let's turn the page to some provincial politics for a bit here.

00:32:38.280 We'll get back to some federal stuff when we cap off the show here.

00:32:41.280 But an election has just been called in Manitoba, a general election, and it's a competitive one from all indications right now.

00:32:49.420 This is the first campaign that Heather Stephenson is going to be going into as premier.

00:32:55.580 And she's had a tough time.

00:32:57.320 She never had that honeymoon after winning the leadership, becoming premier.

00:33:01.400 She's consistently been considered the least popular premier in Canada, at least as the personal indication when measuring the premier.

00:33:08.680 The party has had its ups and downs.

00:33:11.280 So, I mean, it's a progressive conservative government in Manitoba right now with, I'll just break it down there. There's 57 seats in their legislature. There's 35 progressive conservatives, 18 NDP, three liberals, and one vacancy.

00:33:26.020 again as far as polls go I was looking at 338 kind of their aggregator is looking at it with

00:33:32.580 maybe a slight NDP lead or almost neck and neck but of course this is right in the very beginning

00:33:38.440 of this campaign right now in Manitoba so it could really go either way I know you've been

00:33:43.500 doing some background on this Nigel what are you seeing coming up here in Manitoba

00:33:47.460 well okay if you're asking me to put my money on the table and make my bet now I say the

00:33:53.220 conservatives go back in again, that is because some of the NDP policies are so far out there

00:34:05.920 that people eventually come to theirs, it's like the liberal strategist, you know, the

00:34:12.380 flock comes home.

00:34:13.980 It works both ways.

00:34:15.460 I mean, Juan Canu is the NDP leader and he signed

00:34:22.660 on to the Leap Manifesto, a more left-wing progressive piece

00:34:30.660 of literature you wouldn't find since the year 2000.

00:34:33.920 All the progressives and all the people

00:34:36.660 who had big ideas signed on to this.

00:34:38.760 It's highly environmental.

00:34:40.060 It's no more resource extraction.

00:34:43.260 Well, you know, in the end, people understand that you can't live like that.

00:34:49.000 And if you want a job, you are going to have to have some economic development.

00:34:55.520 And these things are aspirational, but they're not practical policy.

00:34:59.440 So you put that together with a promise to, well, you know,

00:35:09.540 So he promises not to raise taxes, or at least to only raise them by linking them with inflation.

00:35:19.960 But then there's the credibility thing.

00:35:22.760 When a conservative says they won't raise taxes, you know they're speaking from the

00:35:27.300 heart.

00:35:28.940 When a socialist promises not to raise taxes, you tend to suspect that they might, if they

00:35:39.020 felt it was in their interest to do so certainly we here in alberta know all about that from the

00:35:46.460 four years of um this is not lee's uh time as premier and i think the manitobans probably

00:35:53.660 suspect the same thing so if you're asking me to go out all of them i say that heather stephenson

00:35:58.300 goes back but it won't be because everybody admires how she handled the covert crisis

00:36:05.340 and the lockdowns and jailing pastors and crackdowns on churches and so forth that is a thing

00:36:12.060 the thing that might help her and maybe i know i know uh chris is very following this very very

00:36:18.940 closely not only in manitoba but in other provinces chris um what is she doing about restoring

00:36:26.540 parental rights well this is huge um she did come out and say that you know parents have rights to

00:36:33.740 their kids surprise surprise they should know if they're changing their pronouns or wanting to

00:36:40.380 transition so she's weighed in on that and it looks like that that policy obviously if they 1.00

00:36:48.060 get elected will will will continue um i do think that gave her a bump in the polls uh it was very

00:36:55.740 those stories were very popular when they came out um and on top of that they're doing a bunch

00:37:01.340 of things that are are hitting people in their 20s and 30s so you have parents with young kids

00:37:06.140 who are worried about like what's going on in their kids schools and so they're going from the

00:37:11.100 parental rights aspect of it but they're also going after the economic aspect of it

00:37:16.780 the lowest tax bracket over the next four years the amount of taxes someone will pay in that will

00:37:21.740 be cut in half that's on top of the tax cut they put in for the lowest tax bracket in their 2023

00:37:27.180 budget. And then if you are a first-time home buyer, they are going to eliminate the land

00:37:33.100 transfer tax, which is the highest in the country and put in by the NDP back in 1987.

00:37:39.960 And just to give you an example, the tax cut will put about $1,900 back into people's pockets

00:37:45.300 per month. And then the land transfer tax, let's say you're buying an average home in Winnipeg,

00:37:52.620 That's going to save you a little under $6,000 in the land transfer tax and registration fees.

00:37:57.900 So between the parental rights and the economic stuff for people in the lower income brackets, they're really going after voters in their 20s and 30s.

00:38:05.060 And maybe they're seeing what's happening federally with a lot of people leaving from the liberals into the conservatives in that age bracket and kind of piggybacking on some of that.

00:38:14.260 But she is definitely behind the parental rights thing. 0.96

00:38:17.640 she didn't go as far as Moe did but with the banning of third parties like Planned Parenthood

00:38:21.880 but she went all the way up to that line Moe was the only one that went over the line with the

00:38:27.080 banning third parties New Brunswick and Manitoba Ontario didn't ban things like Planned Parenthood

00:38:31.880 even though they did here in Saskatchewan. Chris not every province has a land transfer tax.

00:38:40.760 Of the ones that do theirs is the highest like percentage-wise. Well just just how bad is it?

00:38:45.880 Well, if you're buying an average home in Winnipeg, it's $5,700 for the land transfer tax.

00:38:51.240 So just to buy a house, and you paid the realtor, and now you have to find $5,700 for the government?

00:38:59.880 Yes. And a small registration fee on top of that as well.

00:39:05.240 So she has promised to get rid of that?

00:39:07.400 For first time home buyers, yes. So if you are renting right now and you're going to buy a home,

00:39:13.880 uh then you qualify well and that saves a huge amount of money particularly when you're

00:39:21.340 younger and in a lower tax bracket than say somebody in their 40s or 50s oh yeah it takes

00:39:26.280 a bite out of you know what you're trying to save for your down payment that first time i mean it's

00:39:29.620 a tough hurdle everywhere as it is it always has been so uh that that's always that'll certainly

00:39:35.260 be set in the back i can see that being popular uh the other part too we talked a bit before the

00:39:40.000 show about that, Chris, about, you know, and Nigel mentioned with credibility, is Kenu's been

00:39:44.900 promising some things as well. I mean, you know, that's nothing new out of politicians. They will

00:39:49.600 promise the moon and the stars to get elected, but whether or not you believe them when they're

00:39:53.020 saying those or whether it could actually happen. And he's made some health promises that they've

00:39:57.240 got to be making even progressive voters thinking, hey, you know, I love what you're saying, but I

00:40:00.940 just can't see that happening in the health system. Yes, that I'm not sure where he thinks

00:40:09.420 he's going to be able to do this or find these people. But he said that if he's elected, he's

00:40:14.100 going to hire 400 new doctors, 300 new nurses, and reopen three ERs in the Winnipeg area.

00:40:23.640 I think every single premier across this province, across the country, every province and territory

00:40:29.240 would love to be able to go out and hire 400 doctors and 300 nurses. They just don't exist. 0.95

00:40:35.060 that's the problem so it's one thing to get up and say these promises for health care and stuff

00:40:40.500 like that but if there's nothing like if it's not based in reality i'm sure the conservatives

00:40:47.540 right now in manitoba would hire 400 doctors and 300 nurses if they existed they have programs in

00:40:54.420 place trying to recruit health care workers incentivizing them to come to manitoba just

00:41:00.100 like there is in other provinces in Canada. And for that matter, everybody's fighting for healthcare

00:41:06.020 workers across the globe right now because there's just a global shortage. And the other thing that

00:41:10.660 the PCs did that actually was incredibly smart was they have what they're calling a favorable

00:41:16.820 legal opinion that if they're reelected, they're going to take the carbon tax off your hydro bill

00:41:23.860 and then fight the government in court if they come to try and get the money. So they're going

00:41:27.940 going to tell manitoba hydro to scrap the carbon tax on the bills and see what happens uh they

00:41:36.260 haven't really been too specific on what they mean by favorable legal opinion um but that's also one

00:41:42.820 of their platforms as well is to go after the carbon taxes too you know and i just asked chris

00:41:50.100 one more thing here in in alberta there is a huge interest in using part of saskatchewan

00:42:02.340 and part of manitoba as an energy corridor which you would export natural gas and move electricity

00:42:11.540 maybe allow manitoba to sell hydro power in a westerly direction this energy corridor has been

00:42:21.460 proposed for years and i think the idea is that if it could be put together on indigenous land

00:42:27.460 then it would make the whole process of approval very much easier by being that one step removed

00:42:34.420 from federal oversight.

00:42:36.740 Now, we are under the impression that Heather Stephenson has not

00:42:42.920 been particularly receptive to that proposal.

00:42:46.540 Do you know why, and do you think

00:42:48.200 that this election might change her tune?

00:42:54.520 Stephen Winick- I think as she tries to play more,

00:42:56.820 she tries to play a little bit happier with Ottawa

00:43:00.140 than Saskatchewan and Alberta do.

00:43:03.220 I mean, Mo and Smith obviously are very outspoken

00:43:06.760 against policies coming from Ottawa

00:43:09.780 and also how we have a lot of our energy

00:43:12.360 that's a bit landlocked,

00:43:14.040 where we could be exporting a lot more and so on.

00:43:17.760 But I think that if it was put on the table

00:43:21.300 and there was a actual real plan

00:43:24.340 that would bring tons of jobs to Manitoba,

00:43:27.520 I don't see why she would not be full steam ahead on that

00:43:31.300 because she is like, for example,

00:43:33.640 the Manitoba hydro thing,

00:43:35.460 standing up to the government on energy issues.

00:43:38.060 And so of Alberta and Saskatchewan,

00:43:41.180 I mean, renewable energy is not going to heat our homes

00:43:45.000 in the middle of the Saskatchewan winter

00:43:46.620 when it's minus 40.

00:43:49.740 And whether we like it or not,

00:43:53.440 we're gonna be reliant on oil and gas

00:43:57.900 and natural gas for the foreseeable future.

00:44:01.300 regardless of what policies Trudeau and his buddies in Ottawa want to put in place

00:44:07.360 with regard to the environment.

00:44:10.600 So do you think it's going to be an election issue at all?

00:44:14.280 I think it might be something they bring up very close to the election if they do

00:44:19.920 as sort of a cherry on top of we're going to bring more high-paying jobs to Manitoba

00:44:25.180 because those jobs are going to be very good middle-class jobs

00:44:29.060 and they would last for a long time.

00:44:32.300 Well, we'll be watching this election pretty closely.

00:44:34.860 It sounds like the issues are very similar, actually,

00:44:36.480 to what we're looking at on the federal front,

00:44:38.060 and it could be a bit of a snapshot of those issues as they hit the polls there.

00:44:41.560 So we're getting close for time here.

00:44:44.020 We want to touch on that final subject quickly.

00:44:46.120 So I'll go to Ichi.

00:44:47.000 I'll start with Chris, because this is something that kind of recently came out

00:44:50.700 and really dominated our story scrolls.

00:44:53.360 Credit where due.

00:44:54.220 It was Key and Bexty with his counter signal who got that memo on that,

00:44:57.980 And it was a memo saying, I mean, something that's contrary to what the Liberals have been claiming all along, that immigration is causing or certainly is exacerbating the housing crisis across the country.

00:45:11.500 Justin Trudeau now is clear, was aware of that being a problem and he has done nothing about it.

00:45:17.320 Chris, how do you think that's going to impact him?

00:45:20.040 I mean, this hasn't had time to really resonate yet and hit him in the polls, but I think

00:45:23.900 it's probably the worst possible timing on an issue that's pressuring a lot of people and

00:45:27.840 it's really going to make it worse.

00:45:31.100 Absolutely. He found out about this information. And a couple of months later, back in November of

00:45:38.900 2022, the Liberals increased the amount of immigration coming into the country,

00:45:44.340 knowing full well that immigration was fueling the housing crisis. 0.77

00:45:47.640 We simply are only building about a third of the homes that we need to every year to over the next seven or eight years just to get back to a point where it's easy to find a home to buy.

00:46:02.340 I mean, it's crazy in the home markets now.

00:46:04.560 You put your home up and there's 27 bids in 24 hours because there just is a lack of supply.

00:46:10.820 And we're not building anywhere near where we need to.

00:46:13.980 And then on top of that, Trudeau just keeps increasing immigration.

00:46:16.840 So this year, there's going to be 465,000.

00:46:20.060 It's going to be another 20,000 next year, which takes it to 485.

00:46:24.100 And by 2025, we're bringing in half a million immigrants a year.

00:46:27.640 However, we're only building 223,000 homes on average per year.

00:46:32.260 Well, that doesn't take into account people that are already here that need homes, people that are coming in immigration. 0.94

00:46:39.180 And then the other thorn here in Trudeau side is the fact that there's a lot of international students that also need places to live, even if it's only temporary for a couple of years.

00:46:50.160 They still have to go somewhere. And so between like immigration and then also international students coming, there's a massive housing crunch, particularly in cities that have colleges and universities.

00:47:04.360 And this should not be a surprise to anyone that if you're bringing in X amount of people

00:47:10.380 and you don't have X amount of places to put them in, you would cause a housing crisis.

00:47:15.520 I mean, it's common sense.

00:47:19.100 You know, it's like having the whole family visit from Saskatchewan when you only live

00:47:23.580 in a one-bedroom apartment.

00:47:24.900 It just isn't going to work.

00:47:25.960 You know, the, I wouldn't want anybody to take away the idea that we blame the government's

00:47:35.380 immigration policy in its entirety for the problem with accommodation.

00:47:42.040 There are other factors.

00:47:44.720 And, you know, Pierre Polliver within the last year was talking about gatekeepers and

00:47:49.460 He was referring to the municipal councils that often make new development difficult in a number of ways.

00:47:59.760 He was talking about the CMHC and some of their stipulations.

00:48:06.020 You know, there are other factors, not to mention the fact that, you know, the construction industry, like every other industry, has got an aging workforce, and eventually people give up.

00:48:16.660 they've had enough of it and they're not and it's not something that's attracting the new blood in

00:48:21.780 so there are other factors yes to knowingly to knowingly bring in more and more people to cram

00:48:32.660 and jam in more people into an existing housing supply just goes beyond negligence and you have

00:48:42.820 to ask for why are you doing it and so far we have not had an answer from the government on why they

00:48:51.380 do that he's hiding overseas now so that kind of brings us to a close though we filled it up so

00:48:56.900 much to talk about when jay came on earlier that was the question we had on my show earlier too

00:49:00.980 there's just so many issues burning right now it's hard to cover them all so uh we've covered

00:49:06.020 a good chunk of them though and got our views out there so nigel chris thank you very much for

00:49:12.820 another great show today and we should have him back we should actually can i just piggyback on

00:49:18.060 something nigel said there uh about uh the fees on houses we had a story a couple months ago in

00:49:23.340 vancouver and that a million dollar condo has about three hundred thousand dollars worth of

00:49:27.300 fees on it yes i saw that story like like think about that like that's 30 of the cost of a condo

00:49:35.200 in vancouver right now is just simply fees that the builder has to pay before he even starts he

00:49:41.600 or she starts building, buying what they need, getting the workforce, it's 300,000 bucks out the 0.99

00:49:48.080 door. That's absolutely absurd. Well, we'll keep working on things and keep hammering on things. So

00:49:54.360 thank you again, guys. And if you want to catch those stories from Nigel Hannaford, Chris Old

00:49:59.240 Corn, you got to subscribe, get on to westernstandard.news, take it out $9.99 a month,

00:50:04.000 $100 a year. And those who have subscribed already, thank you very much. We really do

00:50:07.880 appreciate it keeps us independent so thank you for tuning in this week guys and we will see you

00:50:13.260 all again with a whole new set of issues to dissect next week at this time

00:50:17.120 the current lethbridge feed grain prices are as follows cash barley remains at 345

00:50:25.040 feed wheat added four dollars sitting at 364 while corn is holding at 360

00:50:31.340 in the milling wheat markets december minneapolis futures jumped 20 cents at 782 per bushel

00:50:37.780 with local hard red spring bid for September movement at $9.25 per bushel delivered.

00:50:44.020 Over to the oilseeds, nearby canola futures are down $2.90 at $794.60 per ton,

00:50:51.120 with delivered values for September movement at $17.68 per bushel.

00:50:56.260 The pulse markets are unchanged, with red lentils trading at $0.35 a pound

00:51:00.580 and yellow peas at $11 per bushel.

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00:51:12.720 For more information on pricing and picked up on-farm options, give me a call at 403-394-1711.

00:51:20.500 I'm Vera Buziak at Marketplace Commodities, accurate real-time marketing information and pricing options.

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Western Standard - September 07, 2023

The Pipeline： Polls point to national Conservative majority

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