In this week's show, we're joined by our business and energy writer Sean Paulsard to discuss all things energy related in Alberta. The premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, is trying to get her party on board with a plan to reduce Alberta's dependence on oil and gas, and the federal government wants to get Canada on track to be net zero by the end of the 2035s, but what exactly does that mean for Alberta's energy supply?
00:04:02.480I mean, what they want to see with this reduction
00:04:05.020in petrochemical production and sales,
00:04:08.500but they haven't quite gotten into the how, have they?
00:04:11.020I mean, there's only so many ways they could make this happen, Nigel, but where do you think it's going?
00:04:15.720Well, you know, it is a, nominally, both parties want the same thing.
00:04:22.760Premier Smith has outlined her government support for the overall gas, overall goal of eliminating carbon emissions, bringing it to net zero by 2050.
00:04:36.040the federal government wants to do the same thing by 2035 so you think there might be room there to
00:04:43.560come together but it doesn't seem to work out that way because the feds want to do it their way
00:04:50.000which is by capping emissions whereas our premier wants to do it the alberto way which is by
00:04:57.120producing more efficiently and reduce and reducing the emissions that way and just
00:05:02.560taking a little longer to do it. By the way, not jeopardizing electricity supplies while we're
00:05:08.780doing it. So I think it's a sort of a, and as a matter of fact, one of our columnists, Ken Green
00:05:15.060from the Fraser Institute, hell of a good writer, a fellow I've known for years, and I kind of trust
00:05:20.940his judgment on these things. He too is sort of saying it's a discussion over means rather than
00:05:26.260ends on the surface. What's really going on? Well, that's where we get into speculating about what's
00:05:37.620going on in the back of people's minds. And we probably shouldn't do that because we don't know
00:05:41.760for sure. But I'm wondering if this is actually something that Ottawa really has a position where
00:05:48.380Alberta could win as well as they do. Well, I don't know if they're even taking Alberta into
00:05:54.460consideration when they do these things.
00:07:56.860I mean, the Paris Accord, which is what they say they're trying to meet the terms of, actually has a provisional, is it Article 6, that says if you sell natural gas to somebody else, you can count that against your own emissions.
00:08:09.020Well, if you help other countries reduce their own emissions, then yes, you can claim those credits as well.
00:08:15.560And apparently there's enough potential in Western Canada anyway, so over to northeast
00:08:22.240BC with LNG to basically offset the country's entire emissions profile by exporting natural
00:09:32.440Well, then getting back to assumptions, you know, that the whole premise of this, at least when they named it as well, the transition was that energy jobs are going to disappear.
00:09:42.300They're not going to be around anymore.
00:09:44.280Demand apparently is going to disappear for our hydrocarbons and they're going to have to train these, you know, energy workers into a new career environment or something of the sort.
00:09:57.320But I mean, for most economists, there's no indication that demand, world demand for petrochemical products is going to be dropping anytime soon.
00:10:05.720So that leaves the fear that that just means that they plan on shutting it in here, despite what world demand might be.
00:10:10.500Is that sort of my interpreting that right?
00:10:13.420The U.S. government's Energy Information Agency, in fact, protects U.S. oil consumption to rise by 2050, partly due to things like population increases to about 19 million barrels a day from 16.
00:10:29.480So it was previously at about 20. It's gone down to about 16, and they see it climbing back up to 19 by 2050 and essentially just staying there.
00:10:37.980I had a piece on the weekend about Brazil.
00:10:41.100Brazil wants to pretty much double their oil production and overtake Canada as the world's
00:13:25.620was that the government might have to use
00:13:28.440these policy levers to accelerate that transition
00:13:33.280to zero by 2050 if some of these other measures don't work.
00:13:36.900So in other words, moving the goalpost
00:13:39.100is perfectly within the rules in this scenario as well.
00:13:43.800Yeah, we can't trust them to stop there. Well, we'll see. I mean, there's certainly going to be some, I think, some battles coming up. I mean, Premier Smith, though, has been pretty clear that she wants to, she's not going to put up with it, or at least she's taken on the most defensive stance we've seen on this from a Premier in Alberta in quite some time. She'll follow through on that.
00:14:05.040Yeah, and I think she absolutely means what she says.
00:14:12.260It's a strong team that's facing Ottawa, you know, Rebecca Schultz and Brian Jean and Danielle Smith,
00:14:19.880and they've got the rest of the cabinet behind them on this.
00:14:23.980If this is going to work for them, it's going to work like Ottawa says do this, they say we won't,
00:14:31.600Ottawa tries to sue, and they drag it out in court, hopefully past the next election date,
00:14:37.260and then with what many expect will be a different government,
00:14:42.040there'll be a different dynamic between the federal government and the provinces.
00:14:48.340It can just, yeah, it's never looked more likely.
00:14:54.940Well, that segues into, you know, wondering about the next government or what it may be.
00:15:00.080So we just had four by-elections that were just held the other day, and two liberal ridings and two conservative ridings, and pretty much it looks like the status quo won the day.
00:15:13.360There was no significant movement compared to past polling and, you know.
00:15:21.220Well, you know, one of the ones that is worth talking about is Portage-Lisgar, where Max Bernier, of course, had high hopes of claiming a seat in Parliament, but he didn't.
00:15:38.920And I don't say this with a great sense of satisfaction, but the numbers are that the Conservative candidate got 20,000 votes and Bernier got 5,000.
00:15:48.660So what does that mean for the future of the People's Party
00:15:52.960if they can't make significant headway in a riding like that?
00:15:59.080I mean, the other place that they tried out was in Winnipeg South Centre,
00:16:04.260and they got 300 votes, like 1% of the votes.
00:16:10.860So it looks to me as if the PPC idea has had its chance
00:16:17.220and doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
00:16:21.220Now, that actually could be a good thing for the Conservative Party of Canada
00:16:28.880because in the last election, the people who go through the results
00:16:34.000and the spreadsheets reckon that the loss of votes from the Conservatives
00:16:39.940to the People's Party probably cost them about 15 seats.
00:16:43.880It's disputed, but there was certainly an outflow of the more conservatively minded people who went to vote for the People's Party, didn't vote for the conservatives, split the vote, and the liberals slipped by.
00:17:02.520So I think that's what those by-election results tell me, is that PPC is probably a spent force.
00:17:11.980I'm not saying it's going to disappear, but I don't think it's going to be a factor in the next general election.
00:17:17.720I could be completely wrong, but that's my quick take on the election results.
00:17:23.740Well, I mean, yeah, I think it's a fair take.
00:17:27.240and the conservatives are going to need that extra
00:17:31.040a little bit though because they also aren't gaining ground right now. I mean it just seems
00:17:34.880astounding with the, I mean you understand a couple were safe liberal seats
00:17:38.740so they weren't going to switch. We were hoping maybe to see some progress or some
00:17:42.700increases and it's not looking like anything's moving. I mean
00:17:46.840no matter how many scandals, no matter how many cover-ups, no matter how much
00:17:50.920ineptitude we're seeing from this federal government, the partisan lines are
00:18:23.100And I think that that helped Premier Smith here with the election here in Alberta was that she had managed to consolidate that kind of far right vote and bring it back into the fold.
00:18:35.780And I mean, when you think about it, the margin between a majority and being turfed out of office was like, what, 2,600 votes across the province?
00:19:42.160Well, that's the nature of our system as well.
00:19:44.920Some stuff's almost beyond your own control,
00:19:46.500But it seems to be whether conservative or liberal, it depends on who the peripheral parties are splitting the vote at any given time.
00:19:53.740With a strong NDP, which we don't really have too much right now, with a strong NDP biting into the liberal support, conservatives have a much better chance of moving ahead.
00:20:03.860But when the NDP is weak, the liberals can pull it off.
00:20:06.960I said in Alberta, of course, we saw the extreme example of it when the Wildrose Party split with the conservatives.
00:20:12.300And had there been even a 10% bite out of the vote last time around, we'd have another NDP government here.
00:20:19.060Yeah, they told me you were giving money to the NDP, Corey, just for that great reason.
00:20:22.420Yeah, that's right. I don't have enough money. Just rumors.
00:20:29.600But it's a frustrating state. So where does Bernier go from here?
00:20:34.060I mean, he still has the support of a significant amount of people,
00:20:38.000I mean, enough to sustain a little party,
00:20:40.340but it doesn't really, they've got to find themselves
00:20:43.020and figure out what they want to do and where they're going.
00:20:46.600Look, I actually have got a lot of time for the things that Mr. Bernier says.
00:20:52.820He happens to, he and I are in sync on a lot of things.
00:20:57.220However, I am prepared to vote for the person who can actually give me a fraction of that as long as I at least get that.
00:21:10.360Because another four years of a liberal government, I think, would see all of the things that we've just been talking about in terms of the destruction of the energy industry here in Alberta come about.
00:21:25.860I can think of a number of other things that wouldn't go very well,
00:22:55.880I think he's having a hard time capturing the imagination of people. He's a very good speaker.
00:23:01.700When you see him in question period, you know, he's sharp and he's quick on his feet,
00:23:05.820But I don't think he's managed to find an issue or a platform that really captures the imagination of not just people here out west in the prairies, but across the country.
00:23:19.080You see, you're making the assumption that people are judging candidates by their policies.
00:23:27.600Certainly, Paul has been talking about things that people care about a lot, which is affording a house, buying a home.
00:23:39.260This is especially strong among young people fresh out of college, in their first, second jobs, and looking to build what their parents had.
00:23:48.380And so when he talks about gatekeepers and the things
00:23:52.520that make it difficult for younger people to get started
00:23:55.900on this very basic aspiration of owning the place
00:23:58.620that you live in, he is talking to an eager audience.
00:24:03.000So then, well, all right, well, what's not working then?
00:24:06.060And what I get back is that, well, women don't like him
00:24:10.420because he's too strong, he's too sharp, you know.
00:24:14.380That poor Mr. Trudeau gets savaged every day and it's not fair.
00:24:19.660And some of these kind of non-political considerations can really affect how people perceive a politician.
00:29:29.460I don't see more, but it certainly stirred a lot of things up.
00:29:33.240There are some people who feel that, you know, if indeed there was interference, that there should be charges.
00:29:37.820I've seen others turning it around, fair enough, that a similar parallel, not quite as, I think, as extreme.
00:29:42.840They're saying, well, Daniel Smith, Premier Smith, was found by the ethics commissioner to have been inappropriately lobbying on behalf of somebody in there, and that the charges should follow there.
00:29:53.780I guess some of the questions people start asking, even if this has been resolved with the RCP, should we be pursuing politicians with criminal-type charges in these situations or not?
00:30:04.960Well, you know, if it's criminal, it's criminal.
00:30:07.580but let's be honest about it the nexus between government agencies and the government itself
00:30:14.860whether we're talking about the energy regulator or whether we're talking about the
00:30:23.580regulators that look after the airline industry or in this case the rcmp
00:30:30.060statistics calendar the list goes on and on the people who are at the top of these agencies
00:30:38.460are not stupid they know what the government wants and what it doesn't want and they don't
00:30:48.380always need to be told what is a what to do sometimes they just recognize that something
00:33:40.100Yeah, well, listen, I just said, everything we've seen, there's no indication that there's been any political pressure or anything in this particular case.
00:33:47.100But the RCMP has come under question in the last few years over a number of things.
00:33:52.000So Brenda Luckey, we never really did hear resolution on that so much with, for example, with the Nova Scotia massacre, the shooting that happened out there.
00:34:02.920and the prime minister's office hadn't pressuring the RCMP
00:34:05.600and the head of the primary RCMP was pressuring
00:34:09.480investigating officers to release information prematurely
00:34:56.580well i guess we'll see who comes calling when the federal government tells the government of
00:35:04.060alberta exactly what to do and they don't do it when they break the criminal code for violating
00:35:09.040the environmental statute i don't think that would be in the criminal code would it i don't
00:35:13.620know jibble seems to think it is he threatened uh scott moll yeah yeah there's some bizarre
00:35:22.400posturing between those two that's for sure and uh yeah it's just it's it's our our main uh law
00:35:28.800enforcement and and i think part of the rcmp they've always been a very tight organization
00:35:34.960with information like sometimes they don't do themselves any favors when you you do have to
00:35:39.040fight and i mean we understand ongoing investigations they can't just leave it to the
00:35:42.640public and everything but they they also aren't very you know communicative when when something
00:35:48.000happens or things like that and that fosters mistrust or at least animosity between the rcmp
00:35:52.720and media quite often yeah i mean that is so typical though of any government agency we happen
00:35:58.640to be talking about the rcmp and they certainly supply us with examples but you know the the
00:36:06.160agencies that try and get information out of public health canada you know they will give it
00:36:11.440to you eventually when it's no longer relevant try and get a call back from statistics canada
00:36:16.880you know it's it it's difficult and i think the reason is that whenever whenever an agency
00:36:24.720has a reporter asking they think what are they going to do with this like what's the story going
00:36:30.240to be is this going to be a pr problem for us so there is a an incentive to be minimal with
00:36:37.440information what the public doesn't know the public can't ask questions about so when we get
00:36:43.440into the high level or sensitive areas of law enforcement or things of misdeeds. Who is the
00:36:53.040body though that has to take care of this or how can I'm thinking more with the allegations of
00:36:59.840Chinese Communist Party interference on a number of levels or even intimidation of members of
00:37:04.560parliament, you know, inserting themselves into nominations by election. Some of them may
00:37:11.920potentially have a criminal element. I mean, if you're threatening or intimidating a member
00:37:15.840of parliament, that that could have criminal sanction. But at what point does a law enforcement
00:37:23.120agency get involved in that or, you know, it seems CSIS is being sidelined. So who does?
00:37:31.760Well, certainly not a retired governor general with close ties to the, you know,
00:37:38.160it's a very good question that you ask such is the distrust for institutions in canada at the moment
00:37:47.680that it is very hard to identify a person or an office an institution you say well look
00:37:55.600put it in their hands and we know it'll be done right
00:38:00.800you might say well why don't we take a retired supreme court judge again you have to know0.66
00:38:06.240So what are their ties? What are their backgrounds? The short house, of course, is I really don't know where you would go to find a person who everybody would trust.
00:38:21.200Well, and trust is sort of essential if we're going to try and dig into something as entrenched
00:38:28.200as possible, electoral interference or intimidation of our elected officials.
00:38:34.200But we're kind of hitting the end of the road with this.
00:38:38.200Are we going to get another special rapporteur, whatever the heck that is, anyways?
00:38:42.200Even if we do, would that person be able to do anything?
00:38:45.200Well, a special rapporteur as conceived by the Prime Minister, no.
00:38:50.200But what Johnson could not do and what Johnson needed to be able to do if he was ever going to succeed in that task was to subpoena witnesses and require testimony under oath.
00:39:03.220So I have to hope that in 40 million Canadians,
00:39:07.200there is one person, maybe a few to choose from,
00:39:11.020who, if put in the position of saying get to the bottom of this,
00:39:14.360you have the powers you need, go to it,
00:40:17.840Actually, there's a list, isn't there?
00:40:18.960And, boy, I mean, who would want to apply for that job when you have to run that horrific conflict?
00:40:24.400And, you know, somebody investigating this shouldn't, but now that the precedent's been set with the last one,
00:40:30.740it's just so compromised in appearance anyways.
00:40:34.960Well, his problem was he was appointed by the prime minister.
00:40:37.640I mean, there would be some hope if you get parliament itself to report, to appoint the person and have that person reporting to parliament.
00:40:48.900Well, let's say if you had an all party committee, I mean, it's not the first, all party committees exist, they've been around.
00:40:54.140And if they do, you know, with a lot of fighting and burning the midnight oil and putting names forward and back, forward and back, if they do settle on somebody, I mean, it reduces the chances that any of those parties are going to suddenly come against this person because they voted yay when the time came to bring them in.
00:41:11.020Well, they get the opportunity to pick that.
00:41:16.740And we still have Mr. Johnston in that role for another nine days, I think, though what he's doing.
00:41:24.140don't know at this point to strange state of affairs we are in so yes I mean
00:41:39.200it's it's I guess it's bringing back to just the main question people ask is
00:41:44.660Canada broken you know a big wide open question but we've got some very very
00:41:50.360serious things that keep happening and we just can't seem to get resolution we we can't clear
00:41:57.480these up we can't stop them it's is the system flawed inherently you don't i don't think the
00:42:06.600system is inherently flawed but i do think that the system was designed when there were higher
00:42:16.440expectations not merely of people in office but of people generally
00:42:25.160uh we referred earlier to how you never hear of anybody residing on a point of principle
00:42:33.320anymore or when caught in some flagrant misdeed saying all right well that's i i can no longer
00:42:41.320continue in my office and we criticize the politicians for that but then look at the society
00:42:49.560in from whom we are drawing from from which we are drawing our elected representatives how ethical
00:42:59.080are canadians generally do people cheat on their taxes do people lie on their resumes do people
00:43:10.200People keep their word in simple transactions.
00:43:15.040Is a handshake deal still a deal in Calgary and the oil patch?
00:43:20.380I'd like to think it is. I don't know.
00:43:23.560But I think there's been a general decline in the moral standards.
00:43:29.620What people think is the right thing to do.
00:43:32.860And so you are going to have politicians working the system with those ideas in mind, and it's not always going to look good.
00:43:43.840That's even more depressing than thinking that the system is broken because the system can be fixed with legislative tinkering or even rewriting.
00:43:51.580But if you've got an ingrained cynicism among the populace that ensures that you don't bring people with an honorable mindset into the profession of politics or senior bureaucratic roles, that's a lot harder to fix than that.