Western Standard - November 10, 2022


The Pipeline： Smith wins by-election


Episode Stats


Length

51 minutes

Words per minute

176.34532

Word count

9,026

Sentence count

546


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode of The Western Standard, we discuss the UCP's victory in the Alberta by-election, and the province's new sovereignty pact with Saskatchewan. We also discuss the mid-term elections in the United States and the influence of Donald Trump.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
00:00:00.000 good evening i'm derek phildebrand publisher of the western standard you're watching the pipeline
00:00:24.240 Today on November 9th, 2022, I'm joined as always by Western Standard opinion editor,
00:00:31.920 Nigel Henniford. Nigel. Good afternoon. And joined by Bear Hunter extraordinaire,
00:00:40.080 Western Standard, Alberta senior columnist, Corey Morgan. How are you, Corey? Very good.
00:00:45.120 Okay. Well, we've got a great show today. We're going to talk about Danielle Smith's
00:00:49.520 by-election win and Brooks Medicine Hat. I think we'll have a little more insight into this than
00:00:54.560 some other media. We know that area pretty well, don't we? There's a big win, but there's some
00:01:02.960 interesting pieces of the puzzle here to be connected. We're also going to talk about
00:01:07.980 Saskatchewan joining the Sovereignty Pact. Now that it's no longer just Alberta, I think we need
00:01:13.320 a name for these provinces coming together, resisting enforcement of certain federal laws
00:01:18.380 in the provincial jurisdiction, so I'm just going to call it the Sovereignty Pact, Saskatchewan
00:01:22.880 introducing the Saskatchewan First Act. Very interesting, we're going to talk about that
00:01:27.700 and some of the other, the constellation of other provinces and territories, kind of gathering
00:01:31.960 around Alberta and Saskatchewan and joining in this direction. Last night was also the midterms,
00:01:39.280 midterm elections in the United States, Republicans, not all of the results are in yet,
00:01:44.760 But it appears that Republicans have taken the House of Representatives and might, might maybe take the U.S. Senate as well, although that might not be known for several weeks.
00:01:56.780 And we're also going to talk in terms of the U.S. midterms, the influence of Donald Trump.
00:02:00.680 Was this a help or a hindrance to Republicans as they gear up for the next set of elections in two years, including a presidential election?
00:02:10.640 So we're going to talk about that as well.
00:02:11.700 Before we get going, we've got to thank my favorite sponsor, the Canadian Shooting Sports Association. You've heard it a million times and I'm going to say it again. I've been a member of the CSSA for over a decade because they are Canada's leading and best firearms rights group.
00:02:25.600 They are on the front lines defending the rights of firearms owners to legally and justly buy, possess, and use their firearms safely in Canada.
00:02:37.240 Without the Canadian Shooting Sports Association, gun rights would be set a long way back by now.
00:02:42.080 They'd probably already entirely be gone.
00:02:45.080 Thankfully, in Alberta, we might not be enforcing some of those federal laws.
00:02:48.780 We're going to see what happens on that front, see how the new Alberta Sovereignty Act is applied,
00:02:53.220 how the Saskatchewan First Act is applied. But there is good news for gun owners in Canada,
00:02:59.620 that they have an organization like this standing up for their rights. But don't be a freeloader,
00:03:04.180 support them. If you're not yet a member of the CSSA, go to cssa-cila.org, sign up as a member
00:03:11.700 right now. And while you're at it, if you're not yet a member of the Western Standard,
00:03:15.860 shame on you. Go to westernstandard.news right now and sign up. You'll get unlimited access
00:03:21.220 all western standard content one of the only remaining media in Canada that refused to take
00:03:26.980 a cent of the federal government's big media bailout okay so let's get into it pretty close
00:03:32.820 to here at home uh so disclosure for those don't know um the writing of brooks medicine hat that
00:03:39.700 is a redrawn constituency uh before it was redrawn it was strathmore brooks and then
00:03:45.780 combinations of writing called Medicine Hat and Cypress Medicine Hat on. So half of this new
00:03:51.460 constituency I represented when I was in the political arena in Strathmore, Brooks. I know
00:03:56.260 Medicine Hat decently well and Cypress County decently well, but I really know Brooks and Newell
00:04:00.820 County, which is half of this constituency, very, very well. So we're going to dive into it. Danielle
00:04:06.100 Smith, I think approximately October 6 or so, was elected UCP leaders, sworn in days later as
00:04:11.620 as premier, but quickly needed a seat in the legislature.
00:04:15.280 Michaela Glasgow, the UCP MLA for the area,
00:04:19.000 immediately resigned her seat to open up the spot
00:04:21.540 for Danielle Smith.
00:04:23.040 Danielle Smith goes in.
00:04:25.260 Last night we get the results about 54 and a half-ish
00:04:30.780 percent of the vote.
00:04:34.600 It's a clear win, no one was close to her,
00:04:37.620 But I think it was a little less than some were thinking,
00:04:42.760 it was setting for expectations.
00:04:45.200 So for context, the UCP,
00:04:47.680 so the combined Wild Rose and PC parties
00:04:50.020 and the UCP in the last election
00:04:51.520 won about 66% of the vote
00:04:53.620 in a different configuration of the writing.
00:04:55.700 So it's not apples to apples.
00:04:56.940 When I was there as just Wild Rose,
00:04:58.940 I had about 54, 55% as just a Wild Rose candidate,
00:05:02.940 the PCs being the next there.
00:05:05.420 So 54, 54 and a half percent is down.
00:05:10.620 Nigel, do you think there's any, did Smith fail to meet expectations or is there any signs of trouble that she wasn't able to do better than 55?
00:05:18.980 I don't think so.
00:05:20.240 For one thing, it was a by-election and by-elections tend not to be kind to the government in power.
00:05:25.880 So she's the government.
00:05:27.500 Everybody thought, oh, well, that's fine.
00:05:28.660 It's in the bag for her.
00:05:30.720 She got 54.5%.
00:05:32.340 I think Michaela had 60%, and that's close enough to be comfortable for a by-election.
00:05:40.400 She can go forward thinking that the party's behind her.
00:05:43.620 I think what's interesting is what happened to the NDP and the Alberta party.
00:05:50.020 The other two small parties dropped off, basically.
00:05:53.120 Yeah.
00:05:53.560 But I was surprised to see the Alberta party showing up with 17%,
00:05:58.640 and I think that's got to be a concern for the NDP.
00:06:02.340 It's obviously people who, for whatever reason, don't want to vote for the UCP, don't want to vote for the NDP.
00:06:09.520 There they have a place they can park their vote.
00:06:11.940 It may not be good news for the UCP either, but it's certainly not good news for the NDP.
00:06:16.400 Okay, so a high level.
00:06:17.840 We're going to break down into the running a bit.
00:06:19.280 We've got some maps, some nice colored pretty maps of how the parties did, poll by poll.
00:06:25.240 Corey, do you think there's an issue here that, it was still a smashing win.
00:06:29.060 55% is a big win, but this is Brooks Medicine Hat.
00:06:32.400 This isn't, you know, Calgary Elbow.
00:06:34.760 This is, this should be core conservative territory.
00:06:38.320 This area was Wild Rose in 2012 and 2015.
00:06:43.860 Do you think there, do you think these results are,
00:06:48.340 have they got a warning sign in it for Smith and the UCP?
00:06:50.740 I would think it's almost a tepid win.
00:06:53.100 I mean, it's a win, there's no doubt.
00:06:54.500 It was never at risk of an NDP coming in or anything.
00:06:57.120 but it wasn't something where you could pop the champagne quartz and say oh yeah we've got some
00:07:02.300 momentum here I can really hit the ground running in this next six months and it's a tentative
00:07:08.160 endorsement as Nigel said it's a by-election I mean people who the turnouts are low the people
00:07:13.260 who do come out are usually people are ticked off about something they're motivated to come out so
00:07:17.080 it's hard to read too much into it but I'm sure she really would have loved it if she could have
00:07:21.120 gotten 65% or even something higher than the last one to point at and just say we're on a really
00:07:26.500 good course. But I mean, again, it would have been disastrous had she gone even below that 50%
00:07:31.340 number, because that's a real psychological difference that you don't have the majority
00:07:34.640 in that constituency any longer. But I think they're gonna have to read those tea leaves
00:07:39.240 carefully. When you break it down, when you start to see some of those medicine hat poles and things
00:07:42.740 like that, there's a lot to read into why that number came to where it is. And the Alberta party
00:07:47.580 factor, I mean, that's as strong as they're ever going to be. That's their leader in his home
00:07:51.320 riding a popular well-spoken man. Former mayor. Yeah, of Brooks. I mean, it was a fluke of
00:07:56.660 circumstances that he happened to get that opportunity in the by-election. But at the
00:08:00.180 same time, the Alberta party, it will give them a little bit more new life. And they're always
00:08:04.220 there. They just won't go away. They're like, you know, a nagging itch in the back of your mouth.
00:08:08.660 We're going to get to the different parties here. Sure. Okay. So either way, we're going to go in.
00:08:14.140 I'm really, what I'm trying to do is get you off of saying something that's going to earn you
00:08:17.140 Okay, so let's pull up some maps. We've got the UCP map here. It's kind of a heat map by color. So dark blue is where the UCP did very well. Extremely light blue would be where they did poorly. So this is just the UCP result where their strengths and weaknesses are. It's not even relative to other parties. It's relative to their own performance.
00:08:47.140 So you'll see on the map here that Smith and the UCP did pretty strongly in Newell County, that's the area, surrounding Brooks on the north side of this constituency map.
00:09:01.960 So Newell County, that'll be some villages, Duchess, Patricia, places like that, tiny little hamlets, Tilly, Rolling Hills, places most of you have probably never heard of before.
00:09:13.020 But I've spent an enormous amount of time bumping around in a truck.
00:09:17.140 She did very strongly in those areas, not surprising. That's cattlemen and oilmen's country. You don't get more conservative than that.
00:09:26.860 You've got Brooks. She did pretty strong there. She did strong in Cypress County. That's the rural area surrounding Medicine Hat or the north side of Medicine Hat in this constituency.
00:09:39.460 But in Medicine Hat proper, you see her vote drops off quite a bit. So it's a lighter shade of blue.
00:09:45.820 So we'll pull up the NDP map now.
00:09:47.660 So you're going to see orange, dark orange, strong NDP, light orange, weak NDP.
00:09:53.960 You'll see they have very next to no life in Newell County.
00:09:58.300 Not a big surprise.
00:09:59.300 I never met a new Democrat out there.
00:10:00.980 I guess they technically are there, but they stay pretty hidden.
00:10:05.160 Tiny bit in Brooks, more in Brooks than in Newell.
00:10:08.420 Not much in Cypress County.
00:10:10.520 Really, their support in this came in Medicine Hat proper.
00:10:14.820 I mean, a bit odd to see even Medicine Hat have any significant NDP support, but there is some NDP support there.
00:10:22.680 But none of those two things are very unusual.
00:10:25.580 The more unusual one is the Alberta party map.
00:10:27.560 So we're going to pull up the Alberta party map now in purple.
00:10:29.720 Dark purple, strong relative for, again, this is not who won the area, but it's their own relative strengths.
00:10:36.620 Dark purple is stronger Alberta party.
00:10:38.640 Light purple, weak Alberta party.
00:10:40.520 But you'll see it's heavily, heavily concentrated in Brooks.
00:10:45.520 And that's not any, that's not a surprise.
00:10:50.940 Because the Alberta party candidate, as you're saying, Corey, Barry Morishita.
00:10:54.560 So I've known this guy for a while.
00:10:56.400 He was a very longtime city councilor.
00:10:58.960 Yes, Brooks says it's a city.
00:11:02.160 They fashion themselves a city.
00:11:03.500 It's officially a city.
00:11:04.820 So he was a longtime city councillor, and he served a term as mayor, and he's been around a long time, very connected in the community.
00:11:14.260 He's also the Alberta Party's leader.
00:11:16.280 I don't think he was expecting that he was going to get a by-election in his riding, and that he'd be facing the premier, UCP premier.
00:11:22.640 It was quite unexpected, but he couldn't bow out, obviously.
00:11:27.380 So my gut, Nigel, is that this probably artificially pumped the Alberta Party's numbers up.
00:11:35.520 It, you know, most cases you're not going to have your leader running in a by-election where he's been the mayor of the town.
00:11:41.720 It's a lot of good circumstances for it.
00:11:43.460 The Alberta Party also threw the kitchen sink at it.
00:11:46.360 From what I could tell, it looks like they probably spent most of their war chest on it.
00:11:49.560 I'd be surprised if they had much more money left over.
00:11:52.760 um is the you kind of got at this before you said that the alberta party's relative strength here
00:12:00.820 was uh should be of concern to the ndp but i don't know i think it might be the other side
00:12:07.560 around here um they fashion themselves a center i've always considered a bit more of a moderate
00:12:12.820 center left party uh you know kind of less insane liberals still a bit woke and things but you know
00:12:18.420 less insane than federal liberals say.
00:12:22.480 Do you think that support came primarily,
00:12:24.600 is it more concerning to the NDP or the UCP here?
00:12:27.660 Or is this just totally a local phenomenon
00:12:30.260 and there's not much to see
00:12:32.580 because this was just the Barrymore-Sheeta effect?
00:12:35.300 Okay, so probably a local effect
00:12:39.560 because of the unique circumstances
00:12:42.120 and it takes more than just a policy platform
00:12:44.940 and candidates to go and win an election.
00:12:47.340 so when the big one comes around next may can this party field 83 candidates if they can field 83
00:12:54.540 candidates can they afford to to actually run a campaign cost money to find the buses go to the
00:13:02.220 go to the events do all of those things so yes a lot in in many ways probably a local phenomenon
00:13:10.940 nevertheless picture a person who is not kind of crazy liberal but on the other hand has decided
00:13:21.340 that the ucp has had so much internal trouble that they just don't want to vote for them it
00:13:27.500 may not even be to do with daniel smith i guess it could be if somebody thinks the sovereignty
00:13:32.620 act is a bad idea and can't be convinced otherwise whatever the reason they just don't want to vote
00:13:39.740 ucp but they're only liberal not half crazy they'll never vote for the ndp park your vote
00:13:48.940 with the alberta party they might reason people have parked votes before they parked them with
00:13:54.780 green party and green party people have been elected to legislatures and mps they never
00:14:00.460 expected to be so but they just got the benefit of the draft of somebody who didn't want to vote for
00:14:05.980 the main parties that could be something i would think it would be more likely to hurt the ndp than
00:14:13.180 the ucp only because if if your choice if you really don't want to vote for the ucp then the
00:14:19.260 ndp is your only choice you might do that but if there's some kind of quiet little place where you
00:14:25.340 can just say well i voted and i put my vote there you might do that well there's also you know by
00:14:30.540 elections one reason there's several reasons they're often unfriendly towards governments
00:14:34.380 as you guys are saying what you could send a message but one reason that unexpected things
00:14:39.580 happen is that they're very low risk if the party um you don't like the big option well
00:14:47.420 you can vote for whoever you want and the government's not going to change although
00:14:50.140 if the premier is running well it would still create some chaos if the premier lost the by
00:14:55.660 but you know in the by-election it's not the general election you might
00:14:59.500 say ah I don't know the UCP has just been too chaotic for the last three years really and but
00:15:05.340 the NDP oh they're crazy I can't do it well whatever I could vote Alberta party comfortably
00:15:09.580 because nothing's going to change it's a by-election what's the worst that's going to happen
00:15:14.540 a single seat in the legislature changes big deal um Corey the Alberta party I I think has been a
00:15:21.580 figment of the media's imagination for like 12 years or something it's just you know ever since
00:15:27.820 since kind of the Nenshiite crew in Calgary got together,
00:15:31.000 they had the big think, you know,
00:15:32.820 the big listen and all their other weird.
00:15:34.680 Yeah, oh, the big listen, the big listen, that was it.
00:15:38.440 You know, it's a party that's attracted grass tops,
00:15:41.360 some notable people,
00:15:43.180 but has generally failed to attract grassroots,
00:15:45.580 significant voters, significant volunteers,
00:15:47.520 significant donors, that kind of thing.
00:15:49.680 The media are all, they always,
00:15:51.340 if you want to listen to any political panel,
00:15:53.360 I hate that we're doing it right now,
00:15:54.760 but we're doing it for a point.
00:15:56.100 They always say, oh, what about the Alberta party?
00:15:58.160 Could this be their time?
00:16:00.440 And it never, ever materializes.
00:16:03.520 They won Congriobo in 2015, and that was it.
00:16:08.880 And they won it with a four-way split
00:16:11.100 between Wildrose, PC, NDP, and Alberta party.
00:16:13.380 They won in a four-way split.
00:16:14.380 And it was one good candidate.
00:16:15.820 It was based on him, not the party.
00:16:16.940 It was their leader.
00:16:17.780 They threw the kitchen sink into one right,
00:16:18.940 which is smart when you're a new party
00:16:20.120 trying to break through, but they did everything for it.
00:16:22.600 And they've vanished.
00:16:23.820 They had a bunch of floor crossers
00:16:24.920 for the 2019 election, I think they had like four,
00:16:27.240 three or four people in the legislature,
00:16:29.320 ended it with none.
00:16:30.160 Former Minister of Health, big Jim Prentice, big wig,
00:16:34.200 Stephen Mandel, former mayor of Edmonton.
00:16:36.980 So here, Barry Morishita's results, 17%,
00:16:41.240 nothing to sneeze at.
00:16:42.460 I mean, it's a respectable result for a small party,
00:16:45.420 but 17% when you have an unpopular government
00:16:48.860 that's been in deep, deep internal chaos for three years,
00:16:53.240 has been making tons of unpopular decisions,
00:16:55.420 angering left and right.
00:16:57.260 You've got your candidate is the leader of your party
00:17:03.380 and the mayor of the town with deep, deep connections
00:17:06.960 and you max out at 17%.
00:17:11.020 In that context, is this a win for the Alberta party
00:17:14.240 or is this a loss?
00:17:15.200 Is this-
00:17:16.060 I still think it's a win as far as they're concerned.
00:17:18.560 Everybody forgotten about them even.
00:17:20.220 They got some oxygen here.
00:17:21.580 As you said, they're always artificially
00:17:22.800 have their tires pumped by the media for whatever reason over the years. And they're not going to go
00:17:27.420 away. They're not going to be a threat to win seats in the next election. But unfortunately,
00:17:30.600 what it is, is there'll be a factor, they will be in Calgary, they'll have some candidates,
00:17:33.940 and they'll grab between three and 5% each. But when we look at Calgary being the battleground
00:17:38.120 of the next election, that three to 5% is going to be the difference between a lot of UCP and NDP
00:17:43.480 candidates. And as Nigel saying, the big question is, where are they pulling their votes from? I
00:17:48.160 I mean, if they're really pulling them from the UCP, then it really could be harmful.
00:17:53.660 But as Nigel said, I think there's also a factor that kind of, as you said, I mean, last time people wanted to send the conservative parties both of them a message.
00:18:01.000 I don't think a lot of them intended to.
00:18:03.040 They said, I've had it with these guys.
00:18:04.120 I'm throwing one at the NDP, never really thinking the NDP would win.
00:18:07.260 And holy cow, now we've got four years of NDP.
00:18:09.720 This gives them a safety vent.
00:18:11.020 Okay, I'm tired of the UCP, as Nigel said, but I just can't go NDP, throw it at the Alberta party.
00:18:17.260 At least it's a lost vote for the UCP, but it's not a gained vote for the NDP.
00:18:21.980 So it's a catchment for them.
00:18:23.940 So it could work out that way.
00:18:25.740 If they do poll UCP, outright poll them, though, then they could be troublesome.
00:18:29.260 Again, they're not going to win seats, but they can be a kingmaker in some of those.
00:18:35.380 So does this by-election mean we don't have to stop talking about them?
00:18:41.120 I don't think we have a lot to say about them.
00:18:42.920 aside from after the next election we'll talk about how much of a factor they were in the six
00:18:46.360 ridings where the split was by that much but aside from that i don't think they're much worth talking
00:18:50.520 about yeah and you know even where they make up the difference it's it's difficult to figure out
00:18:54.440 are they coming from the ndp pile or are they coming from the ucp pile i don't know okay uh
00:19:02.360 let's talk about splits while we're at it saskatchewan splitting from ottawa uh and joining
00:19:09.320 alongside Alberta. Alberta, you know, really was Smith getting the ball rolling with the
00:19:13.320 Sovereignty Act. You had a white paper kind of haphazardly released by the Saskatchewan
00:19:18.680 government a number of months ago. This has now resulted in the Saskatchewan First Act.
00:19:24.600 You know, there was just about about a month ago, maybe a little more, a month and a half,
00:19:29.880 you had Alberta first and then Saskatchewan, then UConn and I think New Brunswick
00:19:37.320 all coming together saying, we're not enforcing the latest federal gun ban.
00:19:43.160 This is silly law, and we have better priorities for our law enforcement.
00:19:47.720 Wasn't Manitoba in on that? Oh, and Manitoba. Yes.
00:19:50.280 And that you're right, Manitoba was in there too. But now you've got the Saskatchewan First Act
00:19:56.120 coming alongside the Alberta Sovereignty Act. So I will call it I think the Sovereignty Pact of
00:20:01.800 provinces willing to put into legislation open defiance of federal orders in many cases.
00:20:11.880 I guess first, maybe tell us a bit about the Saskatchewan First Act. And I guess it's hard
00:20:16.200 to compare to the Alberta Sovereignty Act, because we don't know the Alberta Sovereignty Act.
00:20:19.800 We know the general principles of it. But give us a rundown of it and how tough it is.
00:20:24.600 So the I mean, basically, the idea of the Saskatchewan First Act is that this I'm quoting
00:20:30.760 here off the Saskatchewan government website is to clearly confirm Saskatchewan's sovereign
00:20:37.840 autonomy and assert Saskatchewan's exclusive legislative jurisdiction under the Constitution
00:20:44.380 of Canada over one, exploration for non-renewable natural resources, two, the development, conservation
00:20:53.680 and management of non-renewable natural and forestry resources and three the operation
00:21:01.320 of sites and facilities for the generation and production of electrical energy. Now you think
00:21:09.360 well why would you need to legislate that it's already there. Well yes it is except that the
00:21:17.000 federal government chooses to ignore the fact that it's already there. So both Alberta and
00:21:24.720 Saskatchewan have introduced or Saskatchewan has introduced legislation. I imagine the Alberta
00:21:31.960 legislation will be broadly similar and it will be underlining and putting in boldface what the
00:21:38.280 provincial rights under the constitution are, but I think the most important thing is that
00:21:46.580 the two provinces together, sending that message to Ottawa, combined with the earlier message that
00:21:55.360 you just referred to about the firearms restrictions, they are telling Ottawa to stop.
00:22:02.300 Now, you can perhaps imagine a scenario where Ottawa decides to keep on pushing.
00:22:10.680 When you've got a significant part of the country pushing back,
00:22:14.300 it's not as easy as when it was just a matter of signing an order in council
00:22:18.540 and things start to happen.
00:22:20.420 It becomes political.
00:22:22.800 It becomes a horse trading thing.
00:22:27.560 This is good for these two provinces to do work together.
00:22:31.360 The way you've described it though,
00:22:32.600 this is the Saskatchewan First Act
00:22:34.460 is really constrained to really just resource development,
00:22:37.780 oil, gas, hydro, forestry.
00:22:40.640 Didn't sound like it gets into much else though,
00:22:42.600 like the Saskatchewan legislature would similar
00:22:45.180 to how the Sovereignty Act in Alberta is conceived of
00:22:47.700 at least that the Alberta legislature
00:22:50.760 would pass a special motion and say,
00:22:53.240 we're not enforcing the federal gun grab.
00:22:55.540 It doesn't sound like the Saskatchewan First Act
00:22:58.200 would include that.
00:22:59.040 It seems restricted to the purely economic sphere.
00:23:02.040 Yes, and it's the economic sphere that's always where things come head to head.
00:23:08.040 Go back 40 years to when we were dealing with Mr. Trudeau's father over the National Energy Program.
00:23:15.040 What was it that brought that down? It was resources.
00:23:19.040 Resources and economic development are huge, but it does seem to be more limited in scope, though,
00:23:24.040 Then, again, the kind of the drawing board version of the Sovereignty Act as we're conceiving of it right now, whereas the Sovereignty Act goes beyond just economics and resource development into, you know, how are the police going to be used in enforcing the criminal code?
00:23:41.220 Are we going to treat firearms owners like, you know, they're crack dealers or something like that?
00:23:47.100 So it seems to be more more limited.
00:23:51.600 Corey, what do you think the political impact will be first in Saskatchewan and then nationally by Saskatchewan doing something like this, which even if it's got differences from the Alberta Sovereignty Act, I think it's gonna be widely perceived as in the same stream as it.
00:24:06.600 Well, I think it'll have some impact nationally, just in the fact that it's in recognition that
00:24:10.560 these provinces are outright acknowledging that this is not a benign federal government. They
00:24:15.920 have to proactively protect themselves from our federal government. That's why we're seeing
00:24:20.840 legislations, whether it's the Sovereignty Act or Saskatchewan's initiative, even if there's
00:24:25.760 differences within them, they're both saying, look, we've got a problem in Ottawa and we have
00:24:30.200 to set up our barricades because they are going to infringe upon our authority.
00:24:36.100 And prior to that, it was always, we wait until the infringement happens and then the
00:24:39.740 battle starts.
00:24:40.400 Now it's getting proactive.
00:24:42.540 And that's a change of tone.
00:24:43.880 That's just assuming that the government's going to be hostile towards yourself.
00:24:48.220 And I don't know how much national news it'll make, how much people will pay attention to
00:24:51.540 it, but it's significant.
00:24:52.560 And then when the battle comes, and it's not a matter of if, when something comes.
00:24:57.120 Next time.
00:24:57.960 Yes.
00:24:58.280 then this could come to prominence
00:25:00.840 because we've got governments
00:25:02.120 that now have a game plan already in place
00:25:04.240 to deal with the federal government
00:25:05.800 when something happens.
00:25:07.980 I think it's very significant too.
00:25:10.080 The personal factor is here.
00:25:11.720 I don't know that Danielle Smith
00:25:13.000 and Scott Moore are personal friends,
00:25:15.100 but they see the world in much the same way.
00:25:18.020 It's going to be very easy for them to say
00:25:19.740 one phone call is all it takes
00:25:21.440 and they're working together.
00:25:23.140 So actually, let's dive into that a bit.
00:25:25.160 So on our social media accounts,
00:25:27.100 Danielle Smith was sharing Scott Moe's, like, posts about the Saskatchewan First Act, and she was, like, kind of giving a thumbs up, and she was herself comparing it to the Sovereignty Act, as if she's saying, like, hey, look, I'm not on my own here, Alberta's not even on its own, we have other provinces jumping in near Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan's, at least when the NDP are not in power here, tends to be kind of the brother or sister province of Alberta, they tend to walk at lockstep now as a block.
00:25:57.100 The Sovereignty Pact. What impact do you think the Saskatchewan First Act will have on, say, the saleability of the Sovereignty Act in Alberta?
00:26:08.020 How significantly does this make it easier to sell the Sovereignty Act? It's not just Alberta kicking up a storm by itself.
00:26:16.180 The people who don't like the Sovereignty Act now are who? The NDP? The media.
00:26:22.160 And a significant number of more leftwards UCPers, although that was leadership race,
00:26:27.740 parties tend to fall in line, but I'm not sure the same will be, I'm sure,
00:26:31.160 among the general electorate of UCP orders.
00:26:33.040 There's probably still some skeptics.
00:26:34.340 I would have to say that the fact that Saskatchewan joins Alberta in this effort
00:26:40.260 is not going to persuade the Alberta media, and it's not going to persuade the Alberta NDP.
00:26:45.220 They will continue their attacks upon this whole concept as either foolishness or as in some way un-Canadian.
00:26:54.100 However, everybody else says, oh, okay, if Saskatchewan's in on this too, maybe it's not such a bad idea.
00:27:01.740 And in the end, I don't know that the media has the credibility anymore to make it stick.
00:27:07.720 The NDP, through their union associations, will beat this drum until your ears ring.
00:27:13.800 But those who are going to vote NDP already know they're going to vote MP.
00:27:18.160 It's not a debatable issue.
00:27:19.900 This is going to help.
00:27:21.200 So, Corey, I don't think anything will convince the NDP and unions and stuff like that or media.
00:27:28.060 They're set as hard opponents.
00:27:30.420 But I think there are, you know, say, softer UCP voters, maybe disproportionately from the former PC wing,
00:27:37.640 people who tended more to vote PC than Wildrose, people who disproportionately did not vote for
00:27:43.800 Smith in the leadership race. But I'm not talking just members, I'm talking general voters. So,
00:27:49.420 you know, people who were less sympathetic to Smith from the race, people who were less
00:27:53.480 enthusiastic about the idea that or even opposed to the Sovereignty Act. Do you think this will
00:27:58.440 go any way into making this more saleable that Saskatchewan's done this?
00:28:02.760 Definitely. I mean, she's not standing alone. I mean, something that opponents from
00:28:06.540 Jason Kenney starting it, saying she was nut-eared and squirrel poop for pushing it,
00:28:11.100 to Andrew Coyne referring to her as Premier Loon. Well, now she's with another Premier who's quite
00:28:18.360 rational as well. And, you know, she's not alone. It's not an outlier. It's not an individual. This
00:28:23.340 is somebody with a similar economic outlook, a similar challenge is going on, and coming up with
00:28:29.480 a similar strategy to deal with Ottawa. This isn't an outlier. She's representing a segment of the
00:28:35.740 population that wants something. If it was still just Smith alone standing with this sort of
00:28:39.580 approach, you could really sideline her and make it sound like it's an individual effort. But
00:28:43.640 now that Saskatchewan is moving in a similar direction, I think it gives her a great deal
00:28:48.980 more strength in putting this forward and making it sound like it has more broad appeal.
00:28:53.500 Okay, well, we're going to switch it up now. Last night were the midterm elections in the United
00:28:58.320 States. There was a lot of anticipation of the big red wave. It does appear that the Republicans
00:29:05.600 have made some gains, but not the smashing wave some were predicting.
00:29:11.520 We'll start with what's easier right now.
00:29:13.580 Right now, most projections, Fox News at least right now, has projected, you need 218 seats
00:29:19.720 to control the House of Representatives.
00:29:21.780 Republicans are 206, solidly leading or elected, Democrats at 177.
00:29:28.400 So, the Republicans are, yeah, so it looks like the Republicans are going to take the House.
00:29:38.920 That was more expected.
00:29:42.360 The Senate, still in play.
00:29:45.160 There's 100 seats, so 50% equals a deadlock, although then the vice president, who is the president of the Senate, gets to cast a tie-breaking vote.
00:29:53.080 It's really the only time the vice president has any official constitutional powers, unless the president's dead.
00:29:57.720 Right now the Democrats are at 48,
00:30:00.340 the Republicans are at 49.
00:30:02.900 And it's now been called that the Senate,
00:30:07.040 I'm sorry, the Georgia seat in the Senate
00:30:09.160 is going to a runoff.
00:30:11.080 So Republicans look like they got the house.
00:30:14.440 They might get the Senate by hair.
00:30:17.180 I think their worst case scenario is probably a 50-50 split,
00:30:19.820 but that still leaves it effectively
00:30:21.760 in the hands of the Democrats
00:30:22.860 because the vice president breaks the tie.
00:30:24.680 I'll start with you, Corey.
00:30:29.400 Do you think this is a disappointing night for the Republicans that they didn't quite smash it the way some were predicting?
00:30:36.020 Or is this a good enough win?
00:30:38.020 It's disappointing.
00:30:39.060 They expected much more.
00:30:40.340 What I'm hoping is it's a wake-up call.
00:30:42.780 I mean, the Americans are kind of predictable in one way.
00:30:44.660 In their midterms, they like to vote against their government.
00:30:47.140 It's a strategic thing.
00:30:48.320 They want to see balance.
00:30:49.160 Okay, we want to make sure somebody doesn't have control of all three levels of government.
00:30:52.200 But we're going to give it whether it's Republican government, then they'll go Democrat with the House.
00:30:56.060 I mean, it's pretty solid, that record.
00:30:57.820 And that's part of why the Republicans had the confidence going into this thinking we're going to really take control.
00:31:02.840 And it was a lot softer, a lot of seats they really thought were locked are now in play or perhaps lost altogether.
00:31:09.160 I think we're going to work into that, though.
00:31:10.540 They've really got to reevaluate their association with Trump.
00:31:14.060 Yeah, that's why I don't want to get ahead of us on it.
00:31:16.540 But I don't think they can call this a victory.
00:31:20.420 And I guess, you know, we'll move along as to why it shouldn't be considered.
00:31:24.140 I mean, it's better than a loss.
00:31:25.140 They certainly could have not taken the House and other things, but it wasn't a sweeping red wave as they hoped.
00:31:33.180 Nigel, again, we're going to get to Trump in a moment.
00:31:35.800 I know it's impossible to talk about this stuff without Trump, but we're going to do our best to talk about the things that are not Trump before we get to Trump.
00:31:43.520 The red wave was predicted.
00:31:46.520 Definitely it's a red maybe tide.
00:31:49.900 It's come in, and they've taken the House.
00:31:53.540 They've got a, I don't know if I'm betting, they've got a 60% chance of taking the Senate by a seat.
00:31:58.940 Maybe, but maybe not even that.
00:32:01.280 If you're a Republican strategist right now, are you looking into this and saying victory or, shit, we're in trouble in two years?
00:32:09.460 So I want to give some credit to Linda Subodian's column.
00:32:13.280 You may have seen it already.
00:32:14.680 It's been up for a couple of hours.
00:32:16.020 and she points out that whereas the republicans campaigned on those things which are which they
00:32:22.860 believed on the basis of polling were the important issues to the american voter the democrats
00:32:30.240 campaigned on the right to abortion and on this idea that president biden was floating in the last
00:32:42.940 because somehow democracy is on the ballot and if you vote for a republican then you're likely to
00:32:50.780 you're voting for the end of democracy voting for the end of the world as we know it
00:32:54.700 and somehow or other that right to abortion struck closer to the hearts of the democrat voter
00:33:04.040 than all of these other issues which you would think would be the more important issues to a
00:33:11.500 can't explain it
00:33:13.640 that's her theory
00:33:15.140 I encourage you to read the article
00:33:18.020 and draw your own conclusions
00:33:20.160 but clearly
00:33:22.080 what happened, happened
00:33:23.840 the red wave did not take place
00:33:26.720 people still
00:33:28.380 voted democrat, why
00:33:30.080 I think our columnist Linda Slobodian
00:33:32.460 gives a very plausible explanation
00:33:34.640 as to why that is so
00:33:35.920 and it's got nothing to do with Trump
00:33:37.460 okay well we're going to get on to Trump
00:33:40.140 Because it's really hard to discuss this without talking about Trump.
00:33:42.540 He is the Republican elephant in the room.
00:33:45.680 So Trump is expected to formally announce that he's going to run for the Republican nomination again,
00:33:53.900 presidential nomination, within about a week, I think.
00:33:58.220 November 14th or so is the date that's been kind of pegged that he's likely to do that.
00:34:03.360 He's been playing a pretty active role really since the last presidential election.
00:34:08.200 He has not gone away at all. I don't think he's taking a break. I don't know if the guy's taking a vacation. He's just been in political campaign mode the whole time, building up his support in the party. He's the presumptive nominee. Even before it goes, he wants to go, he's going to go.
00:34:22.420 Trump is popular among the majority of Republicans. He's extraordinarily unpopular among most Democrats, but even a sizable, very sizable minority of Republicans, not just more left-leaning, say, Rockefeller Republicans, but, you know, some who just don't like his temperament.
00:34:42.980 They don't know they think he's too narcissistic things like this. He's not necessarily loved by all even all Republicans alone independence, Corey, with Trump looming large over the background here. Do you think he was a helper hindrance to the Republican cause?
00:35:02.440 Oh, he was the hindrance. He's a spent force. I mean, I know he's got some very strong
00:35:07.020 supporters within the Republican Party. Absolutely. I mean, and that's part of almost
00:35:12.520 who puts people off. It's almost cult-like with some of the people and how they are hung up on
00:35:16.340 him. Maybe it's the nature of strongly partisan politics, I guess. But you look at the close
00:35:20.380 races where he endorsed. Pennsylvania should have gotten a Republican. And, you know, he went and
00:35:26.440 endorsed Oz. And I think that was a kiss of death. The Georgia runoff that's coming, likewise. I
00:35:31.860 I mean, when the endorsement of that person isn't actually a boost to the people he endorsed,
00:35:39.540 that's a reflection on how the whole party could suffer if he's the leader going into the next
00:35:43.740 election. I think they very strongly, and I know it's hard because you could really rip your party
00:35:48.020 to shreds going by that. The people within the Republican Party have got to think about the
00:35:53.380 swing voters, not the hardcore Republicans in there, because I just don't see, I mean, Trump's
00:35:58.140 always Trump. He is just that unique character that he is. And if he couldn't win the last time,
00:36:03.080 I just can't see him winning in two years from now. So if they want to give Biden four more
00:36:07.120 years on a point of principle, put Trump in there as your candidate. I don't, you might mean the
00:36:11.880 Democrats. I cannot imagine if he could live that long with the geriatric guy with his head in a jar
00:36:16.180 up for president. I feel like even the Democrats know the guy, but they're going to need another
00:36:21.460 candidate. I think they've really got to look with him and see what they're doing.
00:36:24.100 It does seem Trump's endorsements are a huge help in Republican primaries getting the nomination to be a Republican candidate somewhere.
00:36:33.100 But the nomination, at least in some areas, particularly more purple areas where there's actually a real match with the Democrats.
00:36:42.100 many of his endorsed candidates did end up going down.
00:36:48.740 Do you think the Republicans need
00:36:52.900 to maybe distance themselves a bit from Trump?
00:36:55.480 And then following that, can they?
00:36:59.140 Is he just too big a presence that it's impossible to?
00:37:01.820 That was what I was, my first reaction was,
00:37:04.200 well, should they?
00:37:05.900 Can they?
00:37:06.740 They're two very different questions.
00:37:08.480 They are, he is a force that won't go away, and he does have a tremendous following.
00:37:15.880 The thing that people like about him, and I can grant you that there are all kinds of personal reasons
00:37:21.920 why people may choose to not like him, because he says offensive things to people who maybe don't deserve it.
00:37:29.940 But a lot of the things that he promised, he got done.
00:37:35.640 I mean, just to name one, he promised energy security.
00:37:39.840 He achieved energy security.
00:37:41.860 Isn't it interesting that the first thing that Biden did when he came into office was to kill Keystone
00:37:47.720 and then stop drilling in the ANWR and a number of other things.
00:37:51.340 Now, the U.S. president is forced to go to the Middle East and ask politely if they would just open the faucets a little more,
00:38:00.240 give us more oil, keep the price down, because we have these midterms coming up.
00:38:04.100 Well, that's appalling. Trump would never have let that happen.
00:38:08.740 So I'm constantly coming back to the image of the airline pilot and the brain surgeon.
00:38:14.020 The airline pilot who is a happy chappy and lands you in the wrong city is not the guy you want to be traveling with.
00:38:23.960 The guy that you want to be traveling with can be all kinds of a personal jerk,
00:38:28.340 But when he is flying, he's right on the numbers all the time and gets you safely where you want to go.
00:38:35.280 That's the fellow you want to travel with if he's a jerk.
00:38:37.980 So what?
00:38:38.600 Same principle with brain surgeons.
00:38:40.300 You want somebody with a great bedside manner?
00:38:43.200 Okay.
00:38:44.160 Maybe he's not the best surgeon.
00:38:46.200 The guy you want is the best surgeon.
00:38:48.300 And who cares what his manner is?
00:38:50.260 Well, I don't think it's just mannerisms.
00:38:51.840 I think the way he dealt with, and I know something you're going to say, Trump did when it was the election.
00:38:56.740 Okay, well, I don't know.
00:38:58.880 How did you know I was going to say that?
00:39:00.580 No, I'm talking to them.
00:39:02.660 You know it's coming.
00:39:03.680 I know you're going to be in the comment section.
00:39:05.580 I'm anticipating you now.
00:39:06.480 Trump didn't lose.
00:39:07.320 Okay, look, I don't know.
00:39:08.900 But the courts ruled that he did.
00:39:12.300 And every single court, including judges that Trump himself appointed, they all ruled he did.
00:39:17.780 So I don't know.
00:39:19.240 But because I'm not an expert in it, I'm going to have to more or less say all of these different courts,
00:39:24.520 including Trump appointees are probably right. The way he handled that appeared dangerous to many
00:39:30.920 people. So I don't think it's just mannerisms. I think it's concerned. I think even his greatest
00:39:37.080 defenders would have to admit he's an extreme narcissist. Maybe that's a good thing in politics.
00:39:42.040 You have to be a little bit narcissistic. Maybe it's a good thing in brain surgeons too.
00:39:45.800 Maybe. I don't know. So let's kind of talk about the coming presidential primary because it ties
00:39:53.880 Last night, one of the really big wins for Republicans is Ron DeSantis in Florida. 2018, he won with 0.4% of the vote, if I'm not mistaken. Razor thin. Florida is considered a pretty purple state. I mean, I don't know how many U.S. presidential elections have hinged on the votes in Florida.
00:40:13.280 And DeSantis last night won.
00:40:15.300 The last time I checked, it was between 17 and 20 percent, crushing defeat.
00:40:19.540 Probably one of the widest margins of victory at state level in Florida in a long time.
00:40:25.560 And he was DeSantis was the first significant U.S. public office holder to stick his neck out and break with the consensus around COVID, around lockdowns, around mandatory vaccination, mandatory masking.
00:40:41.460 Oh, and just in case you're watching YouTube censors, I endorse all of those things. They're great. I love them. I would never question them. I'm just talking about the madman from Florida who says all these terrible misinformed things.
00:40:54.620 He was severely rewarded by voters last night with just a thumping margin of victory. But he also said he's not going to, he's been widely touted as a great candidate for the Republican nomination, presidential nomination.
00:41:08.020 But he's not going to run, because it's obvious no one can beat Trump for it.
00:41:12.380 Trump has just got to lock on that party.
00:41:16.620 What does it say that a guy like DeSantis, who ejects all the boxes and had a crushing win in a swing state that's not reliably Republican, or at least hasn't been until now,
00:41:28.480 what does it say that a guy like DeSantis, who would normally be a leading contender for the Republican presidential nomination, isn't even going to try?
00:41:36.340 first of all i wouldn't expect him to say he was going to try at this stage but he said he's not
00:41:43.060 doing it well he said they always say that but i don't think he well no normally you give a
00:41:47.640 political answer well you know i'm focused on my voters in florida right now and i haven't
00:41:53.080 consulted with my family and you know i'm not thinking about that right now i'm thinking about
00:41:57.560 you know the bullshit lines you've heard it a billion times from politicians before
00:42:01.620 He just said, no, he's not doing it.
00:42:04.280 He's an OBS guy.
00:42:05.760 Yeah.
00:42:06.300 I wouldn't put him past any of them.
00:42:08.040 I don't think he's going to do it because he probably can't win.
00:42:11.540 I don't think anyone else can beat Trump for the Republican nomination this year.
00:42:16.020 So what does it say that guys like him, operating on the assumption he met what he said, and I think he does.
00:42:22.340 What does it say that guys like him aren't even going to try?
00:42:23.980 um well what it's what it says to me is that nobody who was going to try would tip their hand
00:42:31.880 right now there's two years there's a year to go and before the things get hot and it would be very
00:42:38.640 silly to open that up and uh well the jockeying starts now if you take yourself out of the running
00:42:43.920 the reason they give these bullshit answers because you want to still be able to go out and
00:42:47.180 quietly raise some money arrange the right campaign organizers if you just take yourself
00:42:51.360 completely out of the running you kind of cut yourself off from that you make it harder to
00:42:55.520 build that stuff there's going to be a draft DeSantis campaign to be sure of it okay so
00:43:00.060 you are just rejecting the premise of my question you think DeSantis actually there's a good chance
00:43:05.520 he's actually going to run he's going to do it I think I don't think I don't think he totally
00:43:09.620 means what he says no I think that is I I cannot imagine if you put the microphone in the in his
00:43:15.560 face as they did and said are you going to run I can't imagine him at this time saying yes I'm
00:43:22.640 seriously considering it no they didn't do the political answer which is well I'm not thinking
00:43:26.700 about it at this time but you know I will talk to the people of Florida and I'll talk to my family
00:43:31.620 they'll always come back but the circumstances change maybe okay so tell you what though if he
00:43:38.380 doesn't I don't know who who is going to come forward and say yeah okay let me revise the
00:43:43.960 question then, since you would completely reject the premise of my first. Do you think a guy like Ron, do you think a guy like Ron, do you think Ron DeSantis or anyone else in America would stand a prayer's chance of beating Trump for the Republican nomination?
00:44:02.520 DeSantis would, yes.
00:44:03.900 You think he would?
00:44:04.480 I do.
00:44:05.820 Okay.
00:44:06.480 Yeah.
00:44:06.980 All right.
00:44:07.300 And he has all the positives that Trump has, and he has significantly fewer negatives.
00:44:17.280 Well, I do know, I think it was just yesterday or something, Trump was tweeting some elusive thing that, I don't know if it was tweeting, on his Truth Social or something.
00:44:26.880 Something like a tweet saying, you know, good thing DeSantis isn't running because I've got the dirt on him.
00:44:32.880 I'll bring him down if he goes.
00:44:34.380 and it's that kind of shit that like there was a time I was like hey you know Trump might be a bit
00:44:42.200 of an ass but he's our ass and he'll go in there and he'll piss them off and shake it up but then
00:44:47.240 I see stuff like this and I'm just it it soils me on a guy that on so many issues I should align
00:44:54.620 with but I just can't bring myself to do it I just I just don't think he's got the character
00:44:59.300 no and I don't think you're alone with that like that's really I don't know if you can necessarily
00:45:02.980 rule out. I think there's a core of Republicans are at the point too of, you know, I, I, hey,
00:45:09.020 I could still even like and respect him, but think his period has passed. It's time to move
00:45:12.680 ahead. And if the right candidate can present themselves, they would gravitate towards it. I
00:45:18.160 mean, he's, he's going to be someone DeSantis or anyone could actually beat him. I think it's
00:45:23.800 possible. I think it's be damn tough. What percentage chance is it possible? I put it at
00:45:28.960 20%. 20% chance, which is low. I mean, you know, I wouldn't want to bet my house on a 20% odds,
00:45:35.260 but I wouldn't see it in the realm of impossibility. You've got a 20% chance in
00:45:40.100 your descendants. You're the freshly reelected governor of Florida, and you're the toast of the
00:45:46.360 Republican Party. You just annihilated the Democrats in a purple state. Everyone hails
00:45:51.900 you globally as the guy who stuck his neck out and broke the absolutely correct and never wrong
00:45:58.900 scientific consensus of the World Health Organization he's toasted as the guy
00:46:05.260 who's first stuck his neck out on this stuff why would you risk your reputation
00:46:09.820 to be savage by a guy like Trump who goes for the jugular on a 20% chance of
00:46:17.080 getting the nomination to then just face the Democrats it just doesn't look like
00:46:21.700 a good bargain for someone with anything to lose well if somebody who you know
00:46:25.840 If it's all about him and his career and reputation,
00:46:29.620 what you said makes logical sense and very good sense.
00:46:33.460 If, however, he is driven in any way by a sense of I'm doing this for America,
00:46:39.140 maybe he could get past that.
00:46:41.300 I will give you this on your question.
00:46:44.400 It is entirely conceivable that he would sit this one out.
00:46:48.640 Because in another...
00:46:50.020 That's more likely.
00:46:51.400 Trump is now going to be in his 80s.
00:46:54.200 And who knows if he wins or loses the next general.
00:46:57.620 You know, win or lose. The year has rolled by. He could be he could be the man for 2028.
00:47:04.500 That might cause him to just wait because he's young enough. He's got time to.
00:47:09.840 And also, even if you did somehow beat Trump in the Republican primary, I think Trump would not accept the loss.
00:47:17.660 He'll say it was crooked. It was rigged. And he runs as an independent to spoil it for the Republicans.
00:47:22.280 and he pulls a Teddy Roosevelt, Democrats win.
00:47:25.060 I think he'd just run under any circumstance
00:47:28.380 that he lost the Republican nomination.
00:47:30.040 And I don't think he would lose it.
00:47:31.400 But if he did, he would just claim it was corrupt,
00:47:33.620 he would claim it was rigged, run...
00:47:35.440 Oh, he would dynamite his own party out of spite.
00:47:37.580 There's no doubt about that with him.
00:47:38.880 Yeah, I think he would run as an independent,
00:47:40.800 or I don't know, he's not really a libertarian,
00:47:42.780 but take over the libertarians or something.
00:47:44.680 I don't know.
00:47:45.300 Probably run just as an independent.
00:47:47.920 And might even win a couple states.
00:47:50.640 But I think he'd probably do that to dynamite the Republicans as a result.
00:47:56.880 So like if you're anyone with anything to lose here, or even if you want to put America first,
00:48:02.380 well, geez, I do this.
00:48:04.480 You're not even really getting the Republican nomination because the Republican Party would just fracture.
00:48:08.680 It's what you're looking at, though.
00:48:09.640 I mean, when I'm saying 20%, I'm saying 20% today.
00:48:12.600 Give it six months when they're working behind the scenes, when he's looking at things, when things are moving.
00:48:16.620 And again, that might drop to 10% or it might jump.
00:48:19.400 like that's a fluid situation down there. And I mean, yes, as you said, strategically, it would
00:48:26.020 look great. Look, you're right in the top of the world, wait your four years to hit the next
00:48:29.800 primaries, you'll be, you know, well, problem is he's peaking right now. Yeah, he will never be
00:48:34.000 more popular with Republicans to win the nomination. And right. So that temptation is
00:48:38.820 riding over there. And he might die. I mean, you can't really think of it. He's come out of COVID
00:48:44.820 riding pretty for his treasonous acts of opposing the very sound advice of the World Health
00:48:51.340 Organization, Mr. YouTube Censors. He's probably not going to be more popular than he is right now.
00:48:57.580 Four years, actually not even four years, it's six years from now, who's going to, they might
00:49:03.860 not remember him. He'll just be another governor probably. I mean, that's, your honeymoon is not
00:49:08.860 that long in politics. Another six years, he'll have been there a decade. And in a decade, you
00:49:14.560 know, barnacles collect. I've got to, you've got to wonder how many of those 19 points by which he
00:49:19.760 won his seat that were people who had moved to Florida from New York and from California and
00:49:27.680 from other places where the, you know, governance had gone to hell. Yeah. You know, I give Newsom
00:49:34.120 four more years in California now. Let's see what he can do with that. I had family moved to Florida.
00:49:38.300 Now, they can't vote because they're not U.S. citizens, but I had family move to Florida.
00:49:42.920 He's definitely created a whole new wave of interstate migration.
00:49:47.300 Okay, well, I think we'll wrap it up there.
00:49:50.380 We normally don't get that far into U.S. politics, but I think we all agreed we had to get this one off our chest, boys.
00:49:57.260 Okay, well, thank you guys for joining, and thank all of you for joining us today.
00:50:01.500 If you're not yet a member of the Western Standard, go to westernstandard.news, sign up.
00:50:04.640 It's only $10 a month or $100 a year.
00:50:06.860 We appreciate your support for bailout-free, independent Western media.
00:50:11.080 Please stay tuned for the Market Commodities Agriculture Report.
00:50:14.880 Have a good night, and God bless.
00:50:16.120 The current Lethbridge feed grain prices are as follows.
00:50:19.180 Cash parties at $4.53, feed wheat's at $4.70, and corn's also sitting at $4.70 per metric ton.
00:50:25.760 In the milling wheat markets, December Minneapolis futures lost $0.05 at $9.45,
00:50:31.100 with local hard red spring bids for December movement at $12 per bushel delivered.
00:50:35.100 In the oil seeds, nearby canola futures increased $6.50 at $8.90.70 per ton, with delivered values for December trading at $19.97 per bushel.
00:50:46.640 In the pulse markets, nearby red lentils are trading at $0.32.50 a pound, and yellow peas remain at $13.00 per bushel.
00:50:54.740 In the cattle markets, December live cattle lost $0.92 at $1.52.12 per 100 weight.
00:51:00.340 For information on grain marketing, call me at 403-394-1711.
00:51:06.440 I'm Sean Smith of Marketplace Commodities, accurate real-time marketing information and pricing options.