00:18:39.260He was down in Washington the day before
00:18:41.380results were announced and he was confident
00:18:43.820down there when he was talking with our
00:18:45.680rachel emmanuel he says he's sleeping at night so doesn't appear to be a man who's afraid of
00:18:51.860losing his job well and credit where he's due he didn't you know at least set aside the business
00:18:56.740of the office while this was all going on i mean it didn't do him any favors being as far as
00:19:01.740leadership goes being in washington for that this last week but it was actually a very good meeting
00:19:06.280it went well he promoted alberta and our energy products far better in that meeting than our
00:19:11.400federal government has since they've been taking government probably. So I mean, you know, credit
00:19:16.480where due and appreciated. It's just it's unfortunate he wasn't as effective two years
00:19:21.360ago. He might not be facing a review today. Yeah, I think I think that's exactly it. I think even
00:19:26.420just some of the traction he's got for, you know, promoting employment and promoting business to
00:19:34.540come to Alberta, I think has been, you know, I think it has been affecting people's thoughts
00:19:41.320about how productive he has been. I think that it is perhaps affecting people's view
00:19:48.900on whether he can help lift our province out of a pandemic crisis, whether we're looking
00:19:56.160at it financially, from the health sector. So I think a lot of the positioning that
00:20:02.980he's done over the last couple of months now i think i've worked in his favor okay we're going
00:20:08.780to pull andrew lawton in he's down in the lobby that's what i was being uh whispered the screen
00:20:13.300wasn't to open well enough so he's been back there because we've been looking forward to
00:20:16.460getting another perspective from somebody who's a strong political watcher and voice but it's
00:20:21.360outside of our little cloistered alberta world so thanks for joining us andrew hey i know that
00:20:25.820nothing more than easterner's opinions are what albertans want so thanks very much for having me
00:20:30.140on. Oh, it's always appreciated. You've spent more than your share of time out here so far.
00:20:35.920I don't imagine this is making a lot of news outside of the political wants out east, though.
00:20:40.340I wouldn't say generally. I mean, certainly the Ottawa journalist class is talking about it
00:20:45.880because of its effect on the more broad conservative movement. But I also think,
00:20:50.240generally speaking, with the conservative leadership race going, that's where most of
00:20:54.700the horse race attention is devoted. But I will say that there is a lot of soul searching right
00:21:01.360now in the conservative movement because of the leadership race, the convoy, the ousting of Aaron
00:21:06.060O'Toole. And I think a lot of that will really consume whatever happens tonight as part of that
00:21:12.200bigger narrative. And I think in a lot of cases, it might be a lot broader. I mean, I talked to
00:21:17.000Jason Kenney a couple of weeks back and he had said that, you know, the opposition to him is
00:21:21.200just about COVID. And that was really it. He tried to narrow it down to a very single issue. And I'm
00:21:26.080not sure that captures the complexity of a lot of the discontent around his leadership.
00:21:31.020No, I have spoken to some frustrated individuals who said that they have a broader concerns with
00:21:37.000Premier Kenney and things over the last few years or the Fair Deal panel and a number of things. And
00:21:40.880they feel kind of insulted, actually, when they're accused of just being vaccine opponents or part of
00:21:48.220truckers convoy and and he's taking that tact i'm not sure if that's gonna gonna help him in this
00:21:52.940particular kind of race because this is an internal race yeah and generally speaking there's been
00:21:57.660frustration about the leadership style and i think that goes far beyond policy people that don't feel
00:22:03.100like they have a voice in caucus and i mean obviously compared to say ontario my province
00:22:08.380there's a lot more discontent allowed in the ucp caucus and i think that's just part of the
00:22:13.340the Alberta spirit, where there's a little bit less unanimity behind the leader. But I think
00:22:18.060even then that there's not enough latitude that a lot of MLAs I've spoken to over the last couple
00:22:23.580of years have said they feel under Kenny's leadership. And I was hearing this before
00:22:28.200COVID. I was hearing this, like you mentioned, about Alberta independence. I was hearing it
00:22:32.460about the equalization referendum. This is not just a product of COVID, although certainly COVID
00:22:37.220didn't help. Yeah. And I mean, a lot of that as well, as you said, it's within caucus. It's his
00:22:42.580leadership style because I mean there's been a lot of you know crabby conservatives that's what
00:22:46.620we do in Saskatchewan their side parties have sprung out in Ontario there's the Derek Sloan
00:22:52.320started his but there hasn't been the internal turmoil to that level going on in Premier Moe's
00:22:59.160party or in Ford's party I mean there's been some individuals but not this kind of general revolt
00:23:04.000that the Premier Kennedy's been facing. Well I mean the Ford situation though is quite interesting
00:23:09.080And this is perhaps some perspective that I can bring from Ontario, because Ford has had no hesitation in getting rid of people he believes are problem MPPs, the Ontario version of MLAs.
00:23:21.720He's turfed, I think by my count, it was about four MPPs from his caucus since he was elected four years ago.
00:23:28.980And that's not including a couple of behind the scenes situations that I know of where people didn't run again, but it was actually because they were pushed out.
00:23:36.100So there's been a lot less of a flexibility in the Ontario PC environment.
00:23:42.760I mean, that's what produced Roman Babber running for the leadership of the Conservatives, for example.
00:23:46.440Here's a guy who was for speaking out against lockdowns and vaccine mandates and vaccine passports kicked out of the caucus.
00:23:52.680So you have had, I think, genuinely among MLAs more of an ability to speak out.
00:23:58.920But again, that hasn't been entirely there.
00:24:01.300That's why Drew Barnes and Todd Lohan are sitting in the back benches as independents right now.
00:24:06.100Yeah, so do you feel, I imagine that Premier Kenney, assuming if he does survive this review, he's going to perhaps take on more of an approach like Ford and just not put up with any dissent any longer.
00:24:17.780It's going to be toe the line or you're off to the back bench.
00:24:20.960Well, it's possible. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of a block form that's a little bit stronger.
00:24:27.160I mean, you may remember, and you probably would better than most, that letter that came out a while ago of MLA's concerned about lockdowns.
00:24:33.340And it wasn't explicitly an anti-Kenny letter, but you could start to see a potential block form that if there was a more serious challenge to Jason Kenney's leadership brewing, those would be the people who I would look at.
00:24:44.900And I would also say that, you know, one of the things that's really interesting, Danielle Smith, for example, I had her on my show shortly after she announced she was going to get back in the game.
00:24:54.440And I said, you know, if Jason Kenney is successful and you're successful at winning the nomination and winning the election, could you even work in that?
00:25:01.400And she, despite all of the things she said about Jason Kenney's leadership, said, I plan to.
00:25:06.540So Jason Kenney is going to have to deal with a caucus that could have a Brian Jean in it, that could have a Danielle Smith in it, and could have a number of the other dissidents in it.
00:25:15.080And I don't know how you enact an agenda, let alone win an election, when you have that much that you need to hold on to, let alone gaining new support.
00:25:23.400Well, our politics, if nothing else, are never boring.
00:25:27.220Before we let you go, I appreciate you coming in from out east there.
00:25:31.000We know you've got an event to get to.
00:25:33.180Did you want to hazard a guess as to how you think things might turn out tonight?
00:25:36.640Yeah, I mean, now I'm just copying Dave, but I have the 55% prediction as well.
00:25:41.440I mean, if I want to change it, I'll say, you know, 56.2%.0.93
00:25:44.280That way, if I'm really, really close, you'll be very impressed by my Nostradamus-like Ontarian skills.
00:25:49.500But I think it's going to be in that window where Jason Kenney claims it's a victory
00:25:54.160because he said 50% plus one is a win, and other people are saying it's not a win.
00:25:58.920And I think in a lot of cases, you're back to square one with that.
00:26:01.740But I think it's going to be above 50 and lower than 60.
00:26:04.760I'd say probably in that 55, 56 range.
00:26:08.320Great. Okay. Well, thanks for coming in to join us tonight there, Andrew.
00:26:11.140Have a good night there out in the evil east.
00:26:13.660And it's always appreciated when you come on and talk to us.
00:26:15.900Take me with you. All I can say is every time I talk to an Albert, take me with you.
00:29:20.000Well, the United Conservative brand is taking a huge hit. You know, I was listening to Andrew Lawton and his predictions and your predictions earlier. And, you know, let's go back to 2019 election. Jason Kenney won a huge majority. He had 55% support from the general public and won a huge majority government.
00:29:40.600Here we are today, three years later, and we're wondering if he's going to get 55% with his base.
00:29:46.920So, you know, the numbers have drastically changed for Jason Kenney.
00:29:50.980His perception among Albertans has greatly changed.
00:29:55.680And, you know, and the brand is taking a really, really hard hit.
00:29:59.720So whatever happens to Jason Kenney tonight, whether he remains leader or the party has a chance to pick a new leader,
00:30:06.200they really have to get back to the basics of this brand.
00:30:10.600and growing this brand is something that Albertans can trust
00:30:14.780and get excited about voting for them.
00:30:18.040One of the rumors that's coming out today
00:30:20.520is that voter turnout on this special general meeting
00:30:24.700has been low, we're looking at maybe 32, 35,000 people
00:30:29.700out of a possible 60,000 people who were sent ballots.
00:30:33.540My gosh, if you spent money to become a member of this party,
00:34:36.980we'll be able to have some at least closer informed speculation as to what the future brings,
00:34:40.680which will still be pretty volatile and confusing, but a whole new road to go down.
00:34:45.660Yeah. Just production again. Let's just change up the title here. UCPAGM. No one knows what that
00:34:51.800is. Let's just make sure people know that this is the... No, but I'm talking about our main title
00:34:59.820here. Let's just get it up. No one knows what an SGM is. Let's just make sure people know this is
00:35:04.100the county leadership vote um all right uh so danielle let's um okay you're you're not a pollster
00:35:13.360you have no excuse but uh but to give give a prediction and i know it's all got asterisks i'm
00:35:19.260terrified i'm gonna have egg on my face tonight and everyone's gonna say i i told you so and
00:35:24.580whatnot and there's always a risk that your predictions are more wishes than predictions
00:35:29.280but what's your prediction tonight give me a number i'll give you a number because i know
00:35:32.480others are going to be a little more circumspect on it. I say 43%. But I can see a way that he
00:35:40.020could get above 50%. I know a lot of people are concerned, and as am I, about what appears to be
00:35:45.980a number of ballots or memberships that were purchased on single credit cards. I think the
00:35:50.980numbers were 4,691 on eight credit cards. So that appears to be under investigation by Elections
00:35:57.220Alberta. But if I could think of the way that he might have been able to get that kind of support,
00:36:02.000We all know with party membership lists, historically, there have been as many as 150,000 members in the combined UCP, Wild Rose and PC parties.
00:36:11.880And as I understand it, those lists were getting called in the lead up to the membership cutoff.
00:36:16.840So you can imagine a situation because we all know how this predictive dial technology works.
00:36:20.880You call somebody up and say, hey, I'm calling on behalf of the UCP.
00:36:24.020Do you support Jason Kenney? No. OK, thanks for your time.
00:36:26.740Do you support Jason Kenney? Yes. Hey, can I get can I renew your membership?
00:36:29.520And that would be the most credible way that I could see that he could win, because when you look at the votes in Vitro Marciano, who is on Brian Jean's team, has audited the list.
00:36:39.160There's no real obvious surge in memberships anywhere in the province, except for the nominations that were open.
00:36:46.040So Brian Jean's nomination, Joseph Scow's nomination down south in Cardson Siksika, and Jason Nixon's nomination in Ruby Rocky Mountain to House Sundry.
00:36:54.620those ones were all over 2 000 memberships but everywhere else there seems to be a real enthusiasm
00:37:00.300gap quite frankly and surprising to me this is the reason why i would go the other way um and say
00:37:05.660that it's likely to be lower is because the the thing that i found most surprising is that you
00:37:10.460would expect that the ministers would be the most motivate motivated to go out and sell memberships
00:37:16.300so their boss could keep his job because if their boss keeps his job then they keep their job but
00:37:21.020But the number of ridings that had used to have historically thousands of members in the riding are now some of the lowest in the province, even the premier's own riding.
00:37:35.880Yep. The other one I saw, Josephine Pond, who is normally such a reliable membership seller.0.95
00:37:41.120She only, I think she had one of the lowest in the selection.
00:37:43.940So the fact that it looks like the ministers were not motivated enough to go out and sell memberships or had a difficult time selling memberships, I think that's why it's more likely if you see that there is an enthusiasm deficit in Calgary, but there is an enthusiasm surplus in rural, rural is not coming out en masse to vote for the premier for a whole variety of reasons.
00:38:06.440not just COVID policy, although that one has certainly caused him problems in central and
00:38:11.580southern Alberta. But I think it's the lack of action on the equalization referendum. The
00:38:16.820Premier got a very clear mandate to start working on some of that Alberta first agenda. And I think
00:38:21.860because he's not appeared to be taking the lead on putting Alberta first and fighting Ottawa,
00:38:27.320I think that's what's caused even greater problems for him. And that's certainly a big issue in rural
00:38:31.940Alberta. So you were kind of getting into the numbers here. That's coming from, you know,
00:38:37.160we had a story about a month and a half ago that had a riding by riding breakdown of where all the
00:38:43.040members were at. I know CBC had their own version, I think about a week ago, but we've had that up
00:38:49.260for about a month and a half of where, where are the members? And the membership is very heavily
00:38:54.580concentrated in a few rural mostly formerly wild rose ridings um i think it's 25 of the membership
00:39:02.740is in uh roughly 11 constituencies uh to you does that i don't think that bodes well for kenny if
00:39:11.220they're if they're if that's really where it's focused no and especially when you look at what
00:39:14.580happened in those riding so let me just took it look at three of them for instance so brian gene
00:39:18.500brian gene clearly won his his nomination and then went on to win the riding and i would say
00:39:24.660the lion's share of those members are probably going to be voting no to do you approve of the
00:39:29.460leader question down in uh in carson siksika where joda gateman was disqualified again most of those
00:39:36.420memberships are sold by her i suspect that those are pretty solid now same with tim hoven who was
00:39:41.780challenging jason nixon in central alberta thousands of memberships i think over 2000 those would also
00:39:46.740be voting. And both of these were nomination candidates who were disqualified, I think on
00:39:51.780pretty flimsy grounds, almost certainly to protect the incumbents who were pro-Kenny MLAs or-
00:39:59.200Yeah, and it's unfortunate he did that too. I mean, I can see why he would want to keep his
00:40:02.460House leader and his deputy House leader. Those are the two key positions to help you navigate
00:40:06.920legislation through the House. There's a lot he wants to get done, but there's a way he could
00:40:10.800have done it. I think what happened, and this is, I think, really telling, is that my understanding
00:40:14.980is that there were going to be a lot more nominations
00:40:17.000that were supposed to open up prior to this leadership vote.
00:40:20.160So he opens up two that were supposed to be safe ridings,
00:49:50.900and ultimately come out with a victory today.
00:49:53.460So, I mean, you are making one of the arguments
00:49:57.500that Janet said that some of the folks who predict Kenny is going to survive make, which is,
00:50:02.520well, he's never lost before. And the past often is an indicator of past patterns are often an
00:50:10.720indicator of future actions. And he has never even come close to losing anything ever, which makes
00:50:17.720it kind of astounding that the one thing that has been always the biggest question mark of if he
00:50:23.140will survive is the thing that almost every politician does survive, which is leadership
00:50:27.820races. Canadian leaders extremely seldom actually lose an outright majority in leadership race,
00:50:34.120sorry, leadership review vote. I could be mistaken, but I think the only two in Canadian history who
00:50:38.140have outright lost the majority were John Diefenbaker, for who this whole process was
00:50:42.520literally created in the 1960s, and then Thomas Mulcair, former NDP leader, he lost. Maybe I'm
00:50:51.260wrong, but I'm not aware of any other leadership review vote
00:50:54.780where someone has lost outright this, these are normally the
00:50:57.420easiest things for a leader. And the question is, are you going
00:50:59.620to be in the 90s, 80s, your 70s? But you know, if he's an, I'm
00:51:04.380not aware, if any leaders ever survived in Canada in the 50s.
00:51:10.580I think very few have survived in the 60s. I know in Ontario,
00:51:14.140former PC leader, John Tory, he got 66, he tried to stay, but he
00:51:19.040was gone within a few months from there. I'm not aware of any, surely someone's made it in the
00:51:24.78060s before, but definitely not the 50s. Do you think that if he lands in the 50s, which is,
00:51:31.100I think, a reasonable prediction, is this going to be somewhere between 45 and 55?
00:51:35.920It's not too speculative to say he could be in the 50s. Can he survive if he can't break out
00:51:43.420of the 50s, at least? Well, that depends on your definition of survival. If it simply means,
00:51:48.700will he stay on, then yes, I think he absolutely could survive this vote tonight. And I think if
00:51:54.680he does get anywhere in that range, well, a simple majority, 51% plus result, I think he'll accept
00:52:01.300that as a reaffirmation of his leadership by the membership. And I think it's, you know,
00:52:06.980you point to a lot of convention and other leadership, other leaders of other political
00:52:12.220parties leaving after, you know, 60, 70% results. Sure, that's well understood. But it is, you know,
00:52:19.340in a representative democracy, democracy in general, 51% represents the majority and the
00:52:24.780will of people. And I think he has a leg to stand on saying that this is the will of the membership,
00:52:29.220and he should be allowed to continue to move forward. However, I think the real narrative
00:52:33.880and what we're all watching for is how the dust settles should he move forward in that fashion.
00:52:39.060You know, how many MLAs rail against those results and ultimately leave, either under their own volition or because they're removed by the premier for open insubordination, something that he so far has tolerated to a complete degree.
00:52:54.120I think Chad Lohan and Drew Barnes might disagree, but.
00:52:57.940Well, in the premier's defense, at least the official narrative is that it was caucus calling, so ultimately voted him out behind closed doors.
00:53:09.060Well, I mean, that's what occurred. And he's tolerated it to a complete degree in his defense. He's allowed a number of his caucus colleagues to openly campaign against him, Brian Jean included, but a number of his caucus mates as well.
00:53:25.200And I think after tonight's result, should he be reaffirmed as leader of the party, that will be something he no longer tolerates.
00:53:31.540He said as much. So I'd imagine we'll see Alberta legislature that looks a lot different today or tomorrow than it does, let's say, today or in the days to come.
00:53:42.300I don't know if it'll be four MLAs, three MLAs. It could be 10 MLAs.
00:53:46.800We'll have to wait and see. But the stakes are also high for them as well.
00:53:50.420these so-called dissident MLAs and the folks who have been a source of malcontent to the Premier
00:53:56.140and his leadership. They're not necessarily wanting to rush out the door and no longer be UCP
00:54:01.280candidates or UCP MLAs. So they're really going to have to put their money where their mouth is
00:54:05.700if they ultimately are going to take a principled stance against the continued leadership of the
00:54:09.640Premier, should the membership reaffirm that tonight. So let's mix that up between you, Mike,
00:54:14.500and uh danielle what that looks like i i think there are very few i've spoken to a few i few
00:54:22.800supporters of the premier who i think are medicated to some degree who think that if
00:54:28.660kenny gets 50 plus one then everyone's just going to say well that's it it's over uh everyone's
00:54:33.540going to fall in line and everyone's going to be united and say goodbye i don't think any realistic
00:54:38.340supporter of the premier or opponent of the premier believes that i think you're right mike
00:54:44.060And I think that's a realistic appraisal, even from that side, that there's going to be a bloodletting, a reckoning of some kind, if the Premier survives this evening vote in some kind of not greatly large majority.
00:55:00.840Daniel, what do you think that looks like, both in the legislature and in terms of the potential constellation of parties in Alberta?
00:55:06.520Well, I think that's unfortunate that the Premier has already said that there's going to be a bloodletting.
00:56:27.140So seven parties on the right, one party representing the left wing vote.
00:56:31.200That is not a pathway to win a majority government.
00:56:33.700Mike, I really don't think that there actually really is reconciliation between the Premier and most of the dissidents that Danielle just mentioned. I think I would put those dissidents in the red category. I'd also put Angela Pitt in there, Peter Guthrie, Jason Stephan. I think there's a good, Dave Hansen, I think there's a good six, at least, who I'd put in the red category.
00:57:01.980Those people, I don't think, have any interest in reconciling with Kenny, especially if he doesn't have a strong mandate.
00:57:09.100But then there's probably those who are in more of a gray zone who have been critics and very unhappy, maybe even actively worked against the premier, but are not, maybe not as outspoken.
00:57:22.120What do you think the chances are that the premier is going to be able to bring about some kind of reconciliation?
00:57:28.040And you could, if you like, you could break down your answer between those who are maybe in the gray and those who are in the red.
00:57:34.440Well, I think to Daniel's point, that's been part of the challenges that have ultimately resulted in this leadership review.
00:57:41.140And the premier, should he be reaffirmed as leader tonight, needs to reach across the aisle.
00:57:45.940By that, I mean just to those independent MLAs, namely Drew and Todd.
00:57:51.180I think that would do a lot to please the membership.
00:57:53.720And also, it would do an enormous amount to please their caucus colleagues, many of whom remain friends and colleagues and sometimes collaborators with Todd and Drew.
00:58:03.520I think that would do a lot to bridge the divide within the party.
00:58:07.720And that's step one to the Premier win tonight is to start repairing the internal division within the party.
00:58:13.980However, we can't remove the onus completely from these dissident MLAs and also playing ball with the Premier.
00:58:20.160We cannot longer tolerate this type of open dissent, open insubordination of the leader.
00:58:26.580It's fine to carry these types of gripes and grievances within an internal caucus setting, behind closed doors.
00:58:35.000But one thing that the UCP is very uncharacteristically seen is open dissent, public dissent, leaking of information from cabinet and caucus meetings.
01:01:14.840I see the time will tell, but as far as strategy goes, I think that's all he can do then.
01:01:18.780If you come in with that low number is get in there and try and consolidate1.00
01:01:21.380so you aren't greeted next week by a hornet's nest with 10, 12 floor crossers or more fires to put out.0.99
01:01:27.500Well, let me put the same question to you, Mike.1.00
01:01:28.960Is it too late? If the Premier walks out of this in a scenario we're kind of painting here of 55%, is it too late for the Premier to be able to, at least with those grey dissidents, those who aren't, you know, every single day tweeting how the Premier needs to be catapulted outside the moat, is it too late?0.98
01:01:50.100And beyond just the caucus, you know, I think we're at risk in this conversation, maybe thinking of the caucus at the party.0.96
01:01:56.400I think he's got more support in the caucus than he does in the party at large.
01:02:01.500I think it's very fair to say, you know, those who are upset with him, there's there's a spectrum of reasons.
01:02:07.860You know, there are fair dealers and people who are believe in Alberta autonomy to or to independence.
01:02:14.900There's a spectrum there. Those people are at them.
01:02:18.340There's people who are upset with lockdowns, vaccine mandates.
01:02:22.460Now, those people are broadly kind of to his right.
01:02:25.900And Jason is not very comfortable, I think, ever defending on his bright flank.
01:02:30.840I think it's an uncomfortable position for him to be in.
01:02:34.640And, you know, he can make the argument, at least with, you know, the autonomy or independence
01:02:38.340crowd that, well, I'm the best you've got and that kind of thing.
01:02:41.460But I think he's got a tougher argument making that to people upset over lockdowns and vaccine
01:02:45.860mandates, because they see him very much a little different than Justin Trudeau, because
01:02:50.700the actual results have been very similar, although you'll make arguments that, well,
01:02:56.260it's, you know, we ended the restrictions earlier and that kind of stuff. But those are very marginal
01:03:00.740arguments. Those people, I have a hard time seeing how he can reconcile himself to those people.
01:03:08.300Mike, is there really a plausible way for Kenny to bring those people back into the tent? Or at
01:03:14.520some point, is he going to have to cut bait? A lot to unpack there, but I do, he better hope
01:03:21.220it's not too late. Those red zone MLAs also better hope it's not too late. In the case of0.98
01:03:26.980almost all of them, like Tom Lowen, for example, I respect a great deal. He's a fantastic MLA,
01:03:32.380he's a man of principle. At present, he's shivering out in the cold. And would he win
01:03:37.900again running as an independent? Probably not. These are deeply held, UCP held ridings
01:03:42.000where most of these so-called dissident MLAs are currently representing,
01:03:47.300they better hope that they can stay in the party,
01:03:48.780otherwise their political careers are at risk.
01:03:50.560So I think there'll be a bit of a give and take,
01:03:52.660at least as far as the MLAs are concerned.
01:08:40.540oh, we can't be part of that, we can't be part of that.
01:08:42.940And they're driven by the polls and the numbers.
01:08:45.620uh i've spoken with uh i've spoken with the mlas and and again they're they're they're nervous
01:08:54.000they're looking for a safe place and a safe ship to to sail on and at this point you know while
01:08:59.300certainly is not a safe ship to see them to step over to but again if in fact they're being thrown
01:09:06.060off the other one um it's amazing what people will do for survival and and actually come to
01:09:10.660their senses and realize well we've got to do what we've got to do and and so it'll be interesting
01:09:15.600but like i say we're certainly open we have the principled parties our our you know our policies
01:09:22.000are are just rock solid and people who want better government and a future for alberta
01:09:28.000and not to be subject to ottawa and their draconian policies that ultimately are going to1.00
01:09:34.400destroy alberta in our future we're excited to have some mlas that would look and think that0.77
01:09:39.280yeah this is the place to go so um i've got uh now we've shook up our panel here and i've got
01:09:46.400josh from uh project confederation yeah okay yeah just uh have you uh been in talks with
01:09:53.280any mlas about potentially joining and uh have they put any conditions on it at this point well
01:09:58.560the condition on all of them has been we got to wait and see what the leadership review does
01:10:03.680they're all waiting for the votes to be cast and right now they're staying on the ship where they
01:10:08.640think you know that they have their best option do you think that they would maybe come and join you
01:10:14.640if uh if the opportunity rose well you know i always look at politics for for what i call
01:10:21.600politicians is your capital and it's no different than investments and you have those people that
01:10:27.520are entrepreneurs and willing to start and to work from the ground level up but you have the other
01:10:32.880ones that they're they're only worried about saving their capital and right now to join us
01:10:38.800it is a risk i mean if you want to have a future in politics and and say that you know oh i i've
01:10:45.360got to stay elected you look at the the numbers and we're not your first pick and that's where
01:10:51.760these individuals are they want to keep their job they want to stay elected and i guess you can't
01:10:57.200blame him for that but it until the vote comes out i mean it's anybody's um game who knows what's
01:11:03.920going to happen until we know the vote and again i think he'll squeak through and i think most of
01:11:08.240those mlas will then be running back and saying oh well you know the people have spoken so i can
01:11:13.200support them yeah no and i i imagine i mean the three uh the thing is too you if anybody's going0.89
01:11:18.720to join you want them because they're ideologically along the same lines of what the wilder's
01:11:22.560Independence Party offers, not just because it was a place of refuge if the UCP is in difficulty.
01:11:27.620Not every person in the UCP who might want to leave the caucus would necessarily feel comfortable
01:11:32.480with a wild-dose caucus either. So, I mean, there's a lot. Boy, it's so hard to keep speculating
01:11:38.440on these things. Just an update to everybody, and I saw a comment or put it out. The results are now
01:11:43.120that there's an update has finally come saying that they're expected around 5.30 p.m., so it
01:11:48.120shouldn't be too, too much longer before we have a much better idea of what kind of monster we're
01:11:51.820wrestling with here so uh around 5 30 so probably six that's very possibly with a
01:12:00.060spring mckinney's record for being on time but we'll see uh we're seeing movement anyways which
01:12:05.040is good all right but i i appreciate you coming in to talk to us paul like you know there's there's
01:12:09.700so many people out there trying to build the options to represent alberta and you've been
01:12:14.180hitting the ground hard and you're still at it as i said you know we're truly the viable option and
01:12:20.320again Fort McMurray you know we didn't do as good as we thought but again that that really was an
01:12:24.840election on Jason Kenney and you know 63 percent of Albertans are against him and that's what came
01:12:30.180out and supported um the the winner there that was you know campaigning solely on getting rid of
01:12:35.620Jason but the the fact of the matter is is that Alberta's in trouble that Ottawa is viciously
01:12:41.240attacking us and is going to continue and we'd have to have a different route and that's what
01:12:46.000The Wildrose Independence Party is theirs, is actually giving Albertans a way out and an opportunity to say no to Ottawa.
01:12:52.960We're not going to have you making the decisions for our future anymore or shutting down our oil and gas operations to buy from Russia or Venezuela or some other rogue nation.
01:13:03.000It's just preposterous to think that they want to carry on and continue to viciously attack Alberta.
01:13:09.220And so we're excited to give Albertans that option and that choice in the next ballot.
01:13:13.060Great. Well, you've always been consistent, Paul, and I really appreciate it. So thanks for coming
01:13:18.040to talk to us tonight. I'll let you get back out there to watching, well, this race, and then I'm
01:13:22.540sure we'll all be watching the hockey game as that comes out, the other battle of Alberta going on
01:13:26.980tonight. Thanks, and see you again. Take care. Thanks, Paul. Okay, so we do have a packed lineup
01:13:33.380of guests, which is good because these results, as we say, just keep, well, taking a while. We
01:13:38.020didn't anticipate they would come right at four, but they warned us they could come at four, so
01:14:05.480He's been very outspoken on these issues, and he's agreed to join us tonight to talk
01:14:10.740about this race. How's it going, Mr. Rathry? Hi, it's going well. Thanks for having me on.
01:14:16.880Great. I appreciate it. If you could correct me, I don't have my notes in front of me. You don't
01:14:21.620imagine the scramble when we get things rolling. So it's Erdry Cochran?
01:14:25.500Erdry Cochran, right. Okay, very good. So, I mean, you've been one of the more outspoken MLAs,
01:14:32.640critical of Premier Kenny, I imagine, of course, because of that, you're watching these results
01:14:37.620very closely. Maybe a question I can kind of put out though, is there still room for you to work
01:14:44.320within a Kenny-led caucus? I think that my opinion of leadership is not going to change
01:14:54.060because of the outcome of these results. The outcome of this review, my opinion is formed
01:15:03.540and it's formed on three and a half years of being in this caucus and with the premier as leader.
01:15:13.000Okay, I know it was a tough one to throw out at the start, but I mean, we might as well
01:15:17.480because I mean, then otherwise you go down the lines, well, would 70% be enough or 55 or 48? So
01:15:24.580I imagine you'll, you know, examine things like so many others once you have solid numbers and
01:15:29.220Yeah. So does that mean, Peter, that if if Kenny survives at 50.1 percent, you'll take steps to become a independent MLA or where you where does your political future in the immediate area lie?
01:15:46.200Yeah, you know, I'd have to give it some careful consideration. I'm trying not to get ahead of myself. You know, depending upon the result, I will have some discussions that I'll have to have with my family as well as with my board and move forward from there. But, you know, you don't want to do anything rash. I think that you need to have a cool head when you make those kind of decisions. So I would have to wait it out a little bit.
01:16:16.200it's a sorry cory so uh a winner lose you'll be at the ucp caucus meeting uh tomorrow morning
01:16:22.840that's right yeah i'll be there uh 11 o'clock at mcdougall and you know i i think that this is
01:16:29.560going to be a um a tight race uh you know i i think like many i've run these numbers uh every
01:16:36.600which way you can think of and i think it's going to be close uh you know the premier has controlled
01:16:42.280all the levers associated with this and, you know, organize the parameters in his favor. I think that
01:16:48.720it would be difficult to see how he couldn't come through this, but I don't see him coming through
01:16:55.620with a real strong mandate, perhaps something in the 50s. Yeah, let's talk about that process a
01:17:01.780little bit. There's been a lot of concern about the legitimacy of the vote. I was wondering if
01:17:05.200you could just comment on some of the tactics you've seen from the premier, whether it be use
01:17:09.620of staff on the leadership campaign or changing the date or so on and so forth?
01:17:16.500Yeah. I mean, as you know, traditionally, these are done in person and that's what the party
01:17:24.180wanted to run with. Leadership reviews of the past normally bring in about 23 to 2,500 people.
01:17:32.900that sgm that was planned april 9th in red deer was going to have about 16 000 that showed a
01:17:40.500massive amount of of interest there was and typically that kind of interest means change
01:17:47.300let's face it there was polling being done by the party and by the premier's team and they felt that
01:17:54.980the you know the best scenario for them was to change the format and uh going to a mail-in
01:18:01.860ballot system a system in which uh the the president of the ucp said herself that uh was
01:18:08.100one that was and couldn't be secure um but in order to uh to try to uh salvage this uh they
01:18:17.620they altered all those parameters and um yeah and here we are tonight waiting for what looks
01:18:24.180like another 25 minutes to find out what the result will be at least yeah so so trust in you
01:18:29.220know the party itself i mean the system is one question then there's the party and there's been
01:18:32.900a lot of lost trust but say presuming there's a a fresh i guess uh things refresh tomorrow and
01:18:39.380we've got it looks like a new leadership on the way what lessons have we learned like how can the
01:18:43.140party that you got a short period of time before the next election what does the party got to do
01:18:47.780to regain that trust and what lessons, you know, how can we avoid repeating the gap in leadership
01:18:54.820that sort of led to the mess that we're in today? Yeah, no, that's a good point. And the number one
01:19:01.540word that I do here is trust. That is the number one word that I hear from constituents and that
01:19:08.660what I hear we're talking with Albertans from border to border. So that is something that needs
01:19:14.580to be re-established and it's hard to to get that back but I do think that it is doable but we do
01:19:24.020have to change how we how we operate and so I think from the Premier one of the things you would
01:19:30.180like to see is is him reaching out is in trying to acknowledge that some change in in his style
01:19:41.220is something that he's comfortable with doing and with working within caucus but not only with
01:19:46.260caucus with the boards as well as constituents and all albertans i think you may have just
01:19:55.140answered the question i was going to ask peter but well if kenny does win and he'll be speaking
01:20:00.260tonight what what what do you want to hear from him the dialogue thus far has been really one of
01:20:08.260the status quo, that he plans on maintaining the current style. He doesn't see any errors in his
01:20:18.560ways except for the possibility of being too soft. I don't think that that kind of approach
01:20:26.540moving forward would be one that would help the future of caucus. So we need to see him
01:20:35.600change on on that sort of dialogue and and that that remains to be seen but you know the proof
01:20:43.820is in the pudding and I'm not sure whether or not he's going to be willing to do that thus far
01:20:48.740he's shown and indicated that he's he's not going to do that. Now there's been a lot of chatter
01:20:56.400through Don Braid or or even the Western Standard or Rick Bell that Kenny's feels that he's been
01:21:03.400too tolerant of dissident views and that there's been speculation that moves might be made to,
01:21:12.600for lack of a better term, execute dissident MLAs. Do you think that there's any advantage
01:21:18.040in making a move before Kenny can make a move, if that makes sense?
01:21:22.360Yeah, I don't see that as something that the Premier would want to do,
01:21:29.320especially in a close vote, one where he's getting in the 50s. I think that that would
01:21:37.400aggravate the situation. So I would more so see him reading caucus, the riot act and saying,
01:21:46.740hey, look, if we're going to move forward, we're 12 months to an election. We have to be on the
01:21:51.920same team. And we can't have MLAs out being in contravention of leadership. So let's get back
01:22:03.360on board and let's go out and defeat the NDP in the next election. I think that would be more so
01:22:10.480the messaging that we would see from him rather than coming out and pulling off the bandaid and
01:22:17.700getting rid of a bunch of MLAs I think that would really hurt caucus and it would damage
01:22:26.040the relationship with members and I don't think that the general public would would appreciate
01:22:31.740it so it's not not a path that I that I think he will go down but I could be wrong well he's
01:22:37.840shown a certain shamelessness up to this point so we'll see what happens there so so if the premier
01:22:43.120though uh perhaps doesn't win or or it's a low number and he decides it's time to step back
01:22:47.740we're going to move into a leadership race situation as you said though i mean the strategy
01:22:51.500even if he wins would be we're getting ready for an election it's a year from now well that also
01:22:56.120eats a big bite out of the year with a leadership race the you know i mean it would certainly
01:23:00.780rejuvenate things and offer that opportunity but i can imagine it would have to be scheduled quite
01:23:05.520quickly and that caucus will really have to unite to be able to pull off i think a fast definitive
01:23:09.700leadership race and then start preparing for the next election yeah i think it would you know
01:23:14.720probably take about four to five months um you know perhaps a month to get organized then take
01:23:21.480in uh candidate applications and a couple of weeks to assess those and then open up to uh to a race
01:23:29.060in order to to try to have it done by october let's say so yeah the the time frame is small
01:23:37.380but it is still doable and you're right I mean it does a lot of things it really can reinvigorate
01:23:44.020the party I get you know get a bunch of candidates out there and I think there would be a lot of
01:23:49.800candidates that would that would come forward but it would get candidates out there promoting the
01:23:54.580party generating interest bringing in new members and and attracting donations to the party this is
01:24:02.160an area where we're being outraised by the opposition. And, you know, we're a year to an
01:24:09.600election. I think we have less than a million and a half dollars in the bank. You probably want to
01:24:15.400see that in the order of five to seven million. So there's a lot of work to be done over the course
01:24:20.800of these 12 months. And a leadership contest would help to accomplish that. Yeah, Danielle was saying
01:24:28.020something along those lines just uh with the federal party as well i mean a leadership race
01:24:32.200i mean assuming it's not too insanely divisive like the top two contenders say in the federal
01:24:36.200race but all the same a good solid leadership race can can really help build a party i mean that
01:24:41.420motivates i mean constituencies are something we're not hearing a lot about but i i think a
01:24:45.980lot of them are in pretty dire condition right now and you really need them set up and functional
01:24:50.200in order to fight that election as well uh perhaps a leadership race could help spawn that because
01:24:55.000again, volunteers are going to be out organizing, selling memberships and networking in a way that
01:24:59.360they wouldn't otherwise when you get a status quo premier. Yeah, that's a good, that's a good
01:25:04.940point, especially where there's no sitting MLA. I think that they, they would have a lot more
01:25:11.760trouble raising funds. So on that local level to try to support that candidate. Generally,
01:25:19.320you would have other MLAs out there supporting those stranded ridings but yeah this would be
01:25:29.640certainly something that would help that when you have candidates traveling all across the province
01:25:34.520trying to get the good word out for the party that's going to do nothing except for generate
01:25:39.240interest and help out those those local constituency associations. Yeah I guess my
01:25:46.760next question is more along the lines of the hypothetical situation if there is a potential
01:25:51.320leadership race um given what we've just gone through with covet and everything like that
01:25:56.280uh do you think that we would be going into an issues-based campaign or would it be more
01:26:00.680of a personality-based campaign depending on i guess more depending on who's in it but
01:26:06.440yeah that's uh that's an interesting question i you know generally there's a combination uh that
01:34:15.080But I don't think it's too much to ask that one in 10 media events starts on time.
01:34:20.640I think that's just showing professional courtesy.
01:34:23.560And somewhere I heard that they pushed back the start of the counting from 9 o'clock, where they were supposed to start this morning, to 11 o'clock.
01:34:31.560Well, why doesn't somebody say, hey, you know what?
01:34:33.660There's a battle of Alberta tonight, so why don't we make everybody happy and keep the counting starting at 9 and actually get done so people can get to the bars, they can get to the game, they can get to the Red Mile.
01:34:45.840But no, apparently there's not that kind of brain power.
01:34:48.400Well, you know, and aside from our annoyance with it, it is actually a little more serious.
01:34:52.440It's like, when you think about this, it's a sign of disrespect to the press.
01:34:58.220When they're sitting watching at a conference something important, whether it was a COVID update, whether it was some other breaking news, and you are constantly late like that, like, these are the little things, but they add up.
01:35:09.980These are the things that put impressions in people's head, and these are the things that sour voters.
01:35:14.720And times like now, they just can't seem to get that.
01:35:17.220You know, as you said, they've had means to get this on time, and it looks like they're going to bounce it around on us.
01:35:21.940So I want to talk, you know, we just had Paul Hinman on, leader of the Wildrose Independence Party.
01:35:27.180I think a lot of people are going to be watching tomorrow morning what happens with that party in the event that Kenny managed to scrape by.
01:35:37.280You know, if Kenny gets something in the 50s, which is quite possible, I think he'll probably try to stay.
01:35:43.880I mean, he said he'll stay, but we'll see.
01:37:31.760If he's below, then it's actually Alberta politics gets a bit more simple.
01:37:36.340Yeah, but then the question remains, are you going to run for the leadership?
01:37:40.400You know, there's questions for MLAs, either way, this goes.
01:37:44.560So one of the key things I've heard from MLAs in discussing the what-if scenario,
01:37:49.680Kenny scrapes by tonight, you know, he gets 55, whatever it is.
01:37:55.120A large number of them do seem to view the Wild Roots Independence Party as the place
01:37:59.580to try to build a new base from, particularly in rural and small-town Alberta.
01:38:04.240But they have generally said that they want a leadership race if that happens.
01:38:10.400And they all seem to generally like Paul, but believe that if they're going to go there, that party is going to kind of go to the next level.
01:38:18.500They'll go from one of those small parties with no seats, not a lot of money.
01:38:22.200If it's going to move into contention, if it's really going to move into center stage here, they're going to want a leadership race.
01:38:28.440What do you think the chances are that Paul be willing to do that?
01:38:33.480He did it once as a Wild Rose leader before the time the Daniel Smith ran.
01:38:37.380He stepped aside when he thought it would be better for the party to have Danielle take over at that point.
01:38:42.360He'd worked very hard to win that leadership at that time and won that by-election in an upset later on.
01:38:47.820So I'm not, but I mean, it's a different environment now and it's a different time.
01:45:35.740But I guess I want to restate my question.
01:45:37.880And I know you believe that, you know, Jason Kenney remains as leader that, you know, UCP members and voters should consider leaving towards alternative options.
01:45:49.260But I want to ask you a bit, you know, what do you see as those alternative options?
01:45:52.900Where, you know, what are the main options I think that you're looking at or that you see as, you know, plausible outcomes for what form the rebellion takes if Kenney holds on to the leadership of the party?
01:46:06.340Okay. Let's start there. Thank you, Derek. Well, you notice that I was ejected from the UCP caucus.
01:46:17.420You know, the premier spoke lots of that meeting about why I had to go the same day that Todd
01:46:23.100Lowen was. Up to that point, I had never ever called for Premier Kenny's resignation. And when
01:46:29.560he did have good policy, I'll give you an example. When the COVID restrictions were regional,
01:46:35.220I said, I think he's got it about as right as he can. When he did some illogical things like
01:46:41.520cost taxpayers $8 million, caused 70,000 recipients hardship by trying to move their
01:46:49.640payments into another calendar year, which showed a low level of understanding. I said,
01:46:57.260no, I think he's got it wrong. I don't see the logic in this. He always said at that point in
01:47:01.760time he welcomed open disagreement and debate and my reward was was being ejected so so Derek you
01:47:08.040notice since then you notice that six or eight maybe even ten other UCP MLAs have spoke up even
01:47:14.940stronger than I used to before I was kicked out and three or four of them have called for his
01:47:19.180resignation and they haven't been kicked out and that's because I believe he he is fearful of what
01:47:24.540I think is the best way to go forward that's where the conservative movement that represents
01:47:29.460you know all parts of Alberta I'm going to come back to that in a minute but a new conservative
01:47:34.960party that is truly here to to get back to our 10 flat tax and the 2 small business tax
01:47:41.940for rural people enshrine property rights you know those are the things that have to happen
01:47:47.020and and you notice again that you know I think it's at least six MLAs have called for his
01:47:53.740resignation and then criticized him loudly and haven't been ejected and that's because
01:47:57.700as soon as there's three of us, Alberta Elections recognizes us as a new provincial party if we so
01:48:03.580register and we can run in all 87 constituencies. If there's four of us, as Corey Morgan correctly
01:48:09.620said a short time ago, all of a sudden our fundraising, our fundraising, I'm sorry, our
01:48:14.280taxpayer support goes way up in the legislature. And I mean, Todd and I have a great team now and
01:48:21.200great support, but it would be that much magnified and we could be that much, much better of an
01:48:26.480opposition for Albertans. Danielle Smith, Derek alluded to it. One of the things that I've talked
01:48:32.500to a lot of Albertans about is maybe it's time to look at things different. We should be the
01:48:38.340freest and most prosperous place in all North America. By any estimates, our oil and gas
01:48:43.260business is only at 15% of what it could be productivity-wise. We know that in exchange
01:48:49.960for paying billions of dollars of equalization, we still don't get resource movement from our
01:48:55.280Canadian partners. So maybe one of the things that we should look at is a coalition government,
01:48:59.840a conservative party that represents Calgary and Edmonton, and a rural conservative party that
01:49:05.760represents the rest of Alberta, and caucuses separately, caucuses jointly. You know, one of
01:49:12.500the real, real good things about, you know, what the Western Standard's done, what people did
01:49:17.840moving their money out of their bank accounts in response to Trudeau's, you know, Emergency Act,
01:49:23.520is Albertans more than ever are telling me that they want to put in the time effort and take some
01:49:28.460risk and push for change. And let's see where that goes. I'm just wondering, have you been
01:49:37.420speaking then, I guess, directly with any of the people across? I mean, I know you still socialize.
01:49:41.640It's always been the nature of MLAs, even between NDP and conservatives. It's not always as abrasive
01:49:46.920as it is in a question period as we tend to see from outside. But I understand you can't break
01:49:52.720confidences, but has there been some discussion on, again, theoretical scenarios with MLAs who
01:49:58.400are currently sitting in the other side of the aisle from you? Oh, absolutely. I've talked to
01:50:04.000lots of my former colleagues in the UCP. You got to give them so much credit. I mean, it's tough
01:50:10.560to know the best way forward, but the conversations always center and start around what is the best
01:50:16.320for my constituents? What's the best for Alberta? We're in that green zone now where we're only a
01:50:23.700year away from the election and it's time to make those decisions. And then, yeah, I think it does
01:50:29.260start tonight with the official results of the leadership review. But clearly, yeah, we've spent
01:50:38.300a lot of time, you know, coffee, talking, going for walks. And a lot of us share the same values.
01:50:43.920you know there's a lot of note passing that goes on in the legislature and when somebody has a
01:50:49.320question or a member statement that I think really hits to the the heart of economic freedom or
01:50:54.280individual opportunity for Albertans I will quite often pass them a note and say way to go I'm so
01:50:58.940glad you you know taught me something or highlighted that so yeah there's been lots of discussions but
01:51:03.540you know we'll see where it goes tonight and and hope you know we will keep we'll do everything we
01:51:11.300can to keep Albertans' best interest in mind. Yeah, so looking ahead, let's, you know, again,
01:51:16.000we're always, all we can do is speculate till they get around with sharing their results with us, but
01:51:19.980presuming a leadership race does happen, the party rejuvenates, there's still some core issues that
01:51:26.420are a problem. It's sort of, as you pointed out, maybe something of a coalition with other parties
01:51:31.240or maybe changing the party structure so that there isn't the regional division going on within
01:51:36.480the party, you know, rural versus urban MLAs, things like that, like, are there party reforms
01:51:40.800you would like to see that perhaps could make it more functional if it was coming into a new
01:51:44.480leadership? Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean, sure, it could be done within the UCP. But as long as the
01:51:51.280leadership and the board of directors, you know, has that goal, and we have the mechanism to make
01:51:58.560it happen. You know, Corey, one of the best examples is, I believe it was called the Reform
01:52:04.000Act that the Federal Conservative Party of Canada had. Aaron O'Toole flip-flopped on the carbon tax,
01:52:10.160flip-flopped, I think, on the gun registry. Turned out to be not the conservative that he
01:52:14.640campaigned for. So I give the conservative MPs credit for saying, hey, you know, this isn't
01:52:20.240what you sold us. So it's time to move on. So a rejuvenation of the UCP would have to include,
01:52:28.160I think, something like the Reform Act. You know, I think one of the big mistakes that
01:52:32.000that both Brian Jean and the Jason Kenney,
01:54:19.740Yeah, you know, I've had a lot of constituents, a lot of Albertans say, yeah, run as an independent.
01:54:24.100Wouldn't a loose group of independents be good?
01:54:27.360And of course, there's me and Todd, you know, the five or six other MLAs that have expressed concern, Danielle Smith, you know, it's an idea worth talking about.
01:54:38.960And again, I believe Albertans, as much as I've seen them since the early formation of the reform days, are in the situation where they want to talk about this, they want to take risks, they want to drive for change.
01:54:50.340So thanks, Dave, for your question. I believe I have the energy, the desire and the support to run as an independent. My preference is, though, to run in a way that ensures Alberta will be the freest and most prosperous place in North America. And I guess I've got probably the next three to six months to evaluate that.
01:55:11.700you've got a number in mind tonight that uh you think the premier will hit
01:55:22.160you know i i wanted to stay away from that but uh first of all i've i've long thought
01:55:30.680that if he felt he was going to lose after all the uh the voter id and the outreach to
01:55:38.020two Albertans he's done he'd have somehow twisted and turned again uh you know we were all supposed
01:55:43.700to be in red deer on April 9th we were all willing to you know spend a day uh spend 110 bucks and get
01:55:50.340there and do it and those rules changed so I believe that if he thought he was going to lose
01:55:55.540tonight he he would change again so so my number my number Dave is 57 percent and and where it
01:56:01.620comes from is this I believe he was going to lose in red deer 10 000 to 5 000 and that would have
01:56:07.300have been the end of it. I understand that all of a sudden the membership went from 29,000 to about
01:56:13.54060,000. So some side of 31,000 more members. A lot of rural people stopped selling memberships
01:56:22.240because they honorably, if the person couldn't go to Red Deer on April 9th, they didn't ask them
01:56:29.980overly hard to get involved in the process. So I believe those last 30,000 memberships
01:56:35.900come from, you know, an area where, you know,
01:56:41.060while they come from an area where the votes are going to come in,
02:02:16.220Corey's going to save my, pull my chestnuts out of the fire in a second here.
02:02:20.580So did Kenny give you an idea of what level of support he is realistically expecting?
02:02:28.360He said he expects a strong mandate, but I mean, he's also said repeatedly that he's going to stay on even if he receives 50% plus from one of the vote.
02:02:35.000So I think he's kind of setting himself up for expectation that he's going to stay on even if he does receive a small mandate while saying he expects yet a big one.
02:02:44.300uh is he expecting did he talk a bit about the bloodletting that's expected in the event that he
02:02:51.880uh you know he has a slim you know slim majority but but not enough did he talk about what he's
02:02:57.840going to do to try and take back party control no we didn't mention anything about that he largely
02:03:03.040just said you know if i get 50 plus one that's the majority i'm going to stay on as leader i'm
02:03:08.060going to consider that a mandate to continue um staying on as leader of the ucp
02:03:11.940uh rachel it's uh dave here while these two guys try and figure out a 20 year old computer
02:03:19.780uh could you just give us a rundown on uh what exactly happened uh in washington who did kenny
02:03:25.060speak to uh what exactly you did sure so on day one um i met up with kenny on monday at a media
02:03:32.820round table in washington dc he had met with various officials from the state department that
02:03:37.220day his whole reason for going there is basically to pitch over energy and oil apparently you know
02:03:44.440in washington dc they don't understand that most of their energy does come from alberta and that
02:03:48.940it's clean energy so currently in the u.s we're seeing energy prices and gasoline prices are
02:03:53.780skyrocketing but the biden administration is going to opec looking for ways to fill that energy and
02:03:59.560kenny is saying why don't you come here to alberta we want you to invest in alberton oil ultimately
02:04:03.800with the hopes of getting another pipeline built. Not sure if that's something that we can expect to
02:04:07.280see happen under the Biden administration. Remember, he did cancel the Keystone XL pipeline
02:04:11.200as one of his very first acts after he took office. And then Tuesday, he actually went and
02:04:15.980testified at the U.S. Senate committee. So that went quite well for him. There was also, you know,
02:04:21.240Natural Resource Minister Jonathan Wilkinson was testifying, but U.S. senators didn't seem super
02:04:25.580interested in asking him any follow-up questions. They primarily were interested in talking to
02:04:29.320Kenny, who was specifically offering them a solution to their need of the energy crisis,
02:04:33.100whereas the federal minister actually spoke a little bit more on the work their government's
02:04:36.920doing on decarbonization and emissions reductions. Later I wrote a piece about that when I spoke to
02:04:41.700Kenai Asim about that because on Monday he said every time the federal government talks about
02:04:45.640energy we talk about emissions reductions they aren't a champion for Albertan oil. I think we
02:04:49.860saw that again at the committee on Tuesday Jonathan Wilkinson did not champion Albertan oil. He did
02:04:54.960not speak about the work that Alberta is doing on energy and the emissions reductions that they have
02:04:59.140done but Kenny was definitely a champion for that I think it went really well for him I think it was
02:05:03.740you know a good setup for him ahead of today's today's vote he also said to me that he thought
02:05:07.780the fact even he went to Washington DC showed that he wasn't being distracted by his leadership
02:05:12.420review he said he hasn't spent too much time on it that being said I'm sure he has quite a number
02:05:17.740of staff working on it obviously a bunch of people have taken leave of absence from the
02:05:21.820government of Alberta positions to work on the campaign so there's definitely people that have
02:05:25.280been busy working on it. Well, we're going to talk to someone who has spent a lot of time on
02:05:29.960Kenny's leadership review in one second here. Thank you very much, Rachel. Please keep us posted
02:05:35.760with anything you hear. Just send us texts and whatnot. We're going to make sure we bring you in
02:05:39.920as we get closer to expecting the results. So keep us in the loop. Stand by. We're obviously
02:05:44.820going to come to you more than once tonight. Sure. Sounds good. Thank you. Okay. So one man who has
02:18:35.600he's talking vaguely. He more or less indicated that regardless of the result tonight, he's
02:18:42.540actually not very interested in going back to the United Conservative Party, that there's
02:18:46.740more fundamental problems with the party than just Jason Kenney. Where do you think this
02:18:52.940goes tonight? If the scenario we're kind of using is a 55 percent, Jason Kenney gets
02:18:57.720his bare majority and decides to stay and he's going to fight the rebels out. And there's,
02:19:03.460you know i think conservatively speaking four to six out possibly more uh again i i'm very much in
02:19:11.620the business of wild speculation uh so i'm asking you to a reasoning behind your speculation okay
02:19:17.540i knew i'm going to restate something that i've said several times this week jason kenney won the
02:19:22.340last election with 55 support from the general public we are sitting here wondering whether he
02:19:28.580can get 55 percent support with his base so even if he gets a winning number this premier is in
02:19:34.740such a weakened position going into the next election that i mean that's got a concern
02:19:39.060conservatives even those who support him so now back to your question um why do i you know
02:19:45.700how do i look at the prediction so i've talked to lots of people and i've asked them all what
02:19:49.620they thought and then i asked them not just what number they think is we're going to hear tonight
02:19:53.700but why and I just seen this pattern where people who are predicting a majority vote
02:19:59.860don't really have a good logical reason for that and people who are predicting a loss do have a
02:20:05.460logical reason people who are predicting a loss have a spreadsheet they talk to me about how many
02:20:10.180people were going to go to red to red deer they talk about how many rural voters there were on
02:20:14.180the voting list they talk about how disappointing the voter turnout has looked 60 000 members we're
02:20:20.340we're talking about maybe, I think we're expecting 32,000 votes were counted. So the people who are
02:20:26.320expecting, I'm not making a prediction whether he's going to get above or below 50%. I'm just
02:20:31.480saying that the people I talk to who are making a losing prediction are giving me better logic
02:20:36.420than the people expecting a winning vote. So I want to go to the day after tomorrow kind of
02:20:46.380scenario. Kenny scrapes by. Do you see in this event, okay, we've got now Drew Barnes,
02:20:56.640Todd Lowen, let's say roughly six others that's going to include a guy like Brian Jean. You might
02:21:03.280have outside of the caucus someone like Danielle Smith. You know, you've got the Wild Rose0.98
02:21:09.940Independence Party, possibly just a totally other new party around. What do you think the chances
02:21:15.680of success are of a party kind of launching an insurgency from the Tory's right flank.
02:21:22.180Do you think there's enough anger at JC Kenney to sustain that with some kind of success? Maybe
02:21:27.180not the government, but to at least a large showing? Or is, despite the anger at JC Kenney
02:21:33.460out there, the fear of a vote split too great, that no matter how unpopular Kenney is, people
02:21:38.380will hold their nose and vote for him? Well, it's going to be a very delicate balance. You know,
02:21:43.660So, Derek, you'll remember this. When they were putting the PCs and the Wild Rose together, I was one of those analysts who said, this is never going to hold. And lo and behold, Jason Kenney put these two parties together, and he kept the piece for quite some time.
02:21:58.820So my prediction ended up being right, but it took a long time for it to be right. My prediction that there's no way these people could get along. You know, it eventually became true, but it took longer than I thought. So whatever new leader we have, they're going to face the same challenge as Jason Kenney. This very delicate balance for this big ticket, this, you know, big tent party.
02:22:20.600so if the winning candidate for the leadership review comes from the far right of the party
02:22:26.220then it's going to be really hard to keep sort of the more traditional progressive conservatives in
02:22:31.700the tent and you know we're in a different environment this year than we were in 2019
02:22:36.800in 2019 when I was out there doing focus groups and polling people would tell me all the time
02:22:42.340I like Rachel Notley but she's got a weak team around her now centrists are telling me I like0.88
02:22:49.020Rachel Notley, and man, she's attracting a lot of interesting candidates. So, you know, a candidate0.97
02:22:55.920from the far right wing may bring certain people back into the party, but they'll have to work
02:23:00.860really hard to make sure that they don't lose those traditional progressive conservatives,
02:23:05.980because the math you need, we found out in 2015, when the right is divided, there's the perfect
02:23:11.700storm for the NDP to win. So the math will hold in the next election as well. If the right can't
02:23:18.860come together, Rachel Notley and the left, they're too strong to be underestimated right now.
02:23:26.020Okay. We're going to be bringing Corey Morgan back in in a minute, but I just got a last
02:23:31.740question for David. We're going to bring David back in after we're expecting results.
02:23:36.460Oh, geez. Sounds like Groundhog Day. But I mean, the second expected time for results is coming up
02:25:29.200In the meantime, you guys were swimming through the water with a knife clenched between your teeth.
02:25:36.060You guys popped up, and a week later, they changed the whole voting system.
02:25:40.560You guys have really upset Alberta politics, and so we're going to want to come back into you.
02:25:46.280Okay, yeah, well, let's get Corey on here.
02:25:48.060But before we bring Corey in, we're going to go back to Janet.
02:25:52.280Janet, do you see any way forward for Kenny?
02:25:55.000If he scrapes by by the skin of his teeth here, do you see any real way for him to reconcile at least with enough of the rebels in the caucus
02:26:05.860and enough of the rebels and the general membership, and I suppose those might be two
02:26:09.140separate questions. Do you see a way for him to reconcile himself to pull this back together if
02:26:14.820he slips by with something in the mid-50s? Well, I've given a few presentations to my
02:26:21.140clients recently, and the message I'm trying to leave everybody with is that all scenarios
02:26:25.700are on the table. Now, Jason Kenney, in my polling, I got him down at 19% approval at one point,
02:26:35.140which is the low watermark in my 25-year history in doing polling in Alberta.
02:26:42.600So if a guy can go from 19% to running in the next election, it will be miraculous.
02:26:49.660But there is a scenario for Jason Kenney to come together.
02:26:53.280And as I see it, the public is really just fed up with all of this infighting.
02:26:59.160And that even if most members of the public would like to see Jason Kenney go tonight,
02:27:03.860If he does survive tonight, I think the average Albertan is just going to say, let UK UCP get along. Let's move forward. So Jason Kenney can unite the party. If the economy stays strong, if we don't have any sort of surprise flare ups of, you know, of COVID, you know, new variations of COVID, I do see a path for victory for Jason Kenney.
02:27:26.740It's a lot easier to play out Rachel Notley as the next Premier of Alberta than it is to play out Jason Kenney.
02:27:34.100But I can play it out if the economy cooperates, you know, and if those centrist Albertans just say, you know what, the NDP is a step too far for me.
02:27:47.020I just heard David Parker of Take Back Alberta say if Kenney stays, then he'll try and form another political party.
02:27:54.160Is that realistic with less than a year to go before the next election?
02:27:59.580Forming a political party is difficult at the best of times.
02:28:03.900And the problem is, is I think there's going to be too many political parties and there's
02:28:09.040not a lot of runway for somebody to get established.
02:28:11.620So, you know, I think about my own tracking graphs and I remember, you know, when the
02:28:15.440Wild Rose party sort of popped up and it would just sort of float down there in the single
02:36:54.580And now he's saying, this doesn't seem so ridiculous right now.
02:36:57.900Are we so close that we're in recount territory?
02:37:00.500But again, if you're so close to 50% you're in recount territory, resign.
02:37:04.920Well, at that point, you still do want the accurate result because, I mean, it's slightly more face-saving to, you know, you got 51 and you say, for the good of the party, I'm resigning.
02:42:18.860They want to want to get it out, hit the news cycle, hit the six o'clock news.
02:42:21.800But if it's a late announcement towards the later half of six o'clock, then that's like the jury coming back after five minutes, probably ready to hang you.
02:42:31.560And we are now, well, it was a window of four to six o'clock.
02:43:11.260But I'm sure people are unhappy, just as I am, that we're still waiting.
02:43:16.120I find it curious as well that it was set up in such a way, the ballots were counted
02:43:20.300so late in the day, you know, that they're missing the regular news cycle as well.
02:43:23.960I think it would probably be to their advantage to try and capture some of that 4 p.m.
02:43:28.220news cycle, the deadlines of certain journalists, and try and get some news coverage prior to the
02:43:33.920Battle of Alberta, which is going to happen in, what, an hour or so?
02:43:36.800We are really worried about, you know, as wonderful as, oh, I would say as wonderful as I look.
02:43:44.940Here's someone else. Oh, okay, this is, well, I guess I think we know your prediction. Do you
02:43:50.940stand by your prediction that you think the premier comes out on top?
02:43:53.980Yeah, I do. One thing I did do a couple of days ago was tweet my prediction on the actual vote percentage. I wanted to keep it up for posterity. A number of Twitter followers and others joined in the fund. I said 68%. At this point, I think that's probably ludicrous. I think it's going to be much lower. But I do think he's going to stay on. I think it'll be a net positive 51% or more support reaffirming as leader of the party. I do.
02:44:22.980Okay. Well, if it's around 6.30, we're now 6.30.
02:44:52.980Like when you leave us all here in silence, that just feeds speculation that that speculation is usually not going to be in the party's favor.
02:45:00.460Yeah, for sure. And and, you know, Deloitte would have been an easy scapegoat.
02:45:05.560Obviously, to your point, Corey, they are working on on the behalf of the party, you know, and without knowing being behind that partition and behind the kind of closed doors of this process, I have no clue.
02:45:17.760But I'm frustrated, along with everyone else. But I'm sure we'll find out soon. And, you know, I would never speculate that the Premier has anything to do with this. I think it's lifted out of his hands. But there's obviously an issue, and it's a frustrating one.
02:45:30.980Well, I don't know. I think it's within the realm of possibility that the results are known right now because Deloitte is not, unless I'm mistaken, I don't believe Deloitte is announcing the results.
02:45:45.200Rick Orman, the chief returning officer, is announcing it. So the counting, the actual results, is in the hands of Deloitte. Announcing the results is in the hands of the party, and I don't think it's a stretch to think that if it was a less than enthusiastic result for the...
02:54:34.900Friends, tonight the members of our party completed a democratic exercise in accountability.
02:54:41.140The result is not what I hoped for, or frankly what I expected.
02:54:45.460But I've been clear from day one that I will respect the decision of the members in this
02:54:50.260leadership review. And I expect all members of our party to do just that.
02:55:04.900Friends, while 51% of the vote passes the constitutional threshold of a majority, it clearly is not adequate support to continue on as leader.
02:55:19.180And that is why tonight I have informed the president of the party of my intention to step down as leader of the United Conservative Party.
02:55:28.920I'm sorry, but friends, I truly believe that we need to move forward united.
02:55:34.000we need to put the past behind us and our members a large number of our members have asked for an
02:55:39.120opportunity to clear the air through a leadership election and I recommended therefore that the
02:55:45.600provincial board schedule a leadership election in a timely fashion. I want to thank all members
02:55:51.000who participated in this process and the hundreds of volunteers who have pitched in. I also want to
02:55:57.200thank so many of you here and right across the province for your support and the tireless efforts
02:56:02.780of those who have had confidence in my continued leadership friends it's clear that the past two
02:56:10.220years were deeply divisive for our province our party and our caucus but it is my fervent hope
02:56:18.780that in the months to come we all move on past the division of covet and disappointing as this
02:56:26.220result is for me i am incredibly proud of the work that this team has done together we reunited the
02:56:33.420free enterprise movement in alberta politics and we won the largest electoral mandate in our
02:56:38.220province's history we inherited profound fiscal and economic challenges and then we went through
02:56:44.300three once in a century crisis the largest public health crisis in a century the largest collapse
02:56:50.140of the world economy in nearly a century and the first time ever we experienced negative oil prices
02:56:56.220And yet, despite all of that, we got the job done, delivering on nearly 90% of our election commitments.
02:57:07.180While turning around our economy, while turning around the economy, so we're leading Canada in economic job growth, balancing the budget for the first time in 14 years.
02:57:18.040and paving the path towards a new era of diversification putting parents back in
02:57:27.120charge of education passing the choice in education act and so much more by the way
02:57:32.520did you hear last week we won an historic victory against justin trudeau's no more pipelines law
02:57:37.600and just yesterday just yesterday i was with members of our team in washington fighting for
02:57:49.420alberta energy jobs and winning the support of some of america's key leaders we continue
02:57:54.680to get the job done as a team but clearly a large number of our members want to clear the air
02:58:01.140with a leadership election and i fully respect their decision and i encourage all members to
02:58:06.980do the same while we have our internal differences we must remember remember the shared values that
02:58:14.580unite us as conservatives and we must always remember the promise of Alberta this great
02:58:21.580land of opportunity where dreams come true and anyone can achieve their god-given potential
02:58:27.560so thank you so much for your presence now let's get on with the real show tonight the battle of
02:58:33.680Alberta. As Daryl Sutter said yesterday, it's bringing our province together. It's the best
02:58:41.300thing ever. I couldn't agree more. God bless you all, and God bless the province of Alberta.
02:59:03.680All right. Well, we just saw, we were just mistaken history there. Jason Kenney resigning as leader of the United Conservative Party and the Premier of Alberta.
02:59:18.300He scraped by with just 51% of the vote, and an absolute nightmare scenario.
02:59:29.920A leader with 51%, no way any leader can lead a party who had less percentage of the vote from his own party than he got from Albertans at large last time.
02:59:42.180he surprised me. He gave every indication that he would take 50% plus one. He indicated that
02:59:50.140that is the rules and that is technically true. But he surprised me and I think did the right
02:59:57.380thing for his party today. He did. He did. David, you have done more than almost anyone
03:00:03.400in the province to make tonight happen. How are you feeling? You know what? I'm proud of Jason
03:00:10.220Kenny because he did the right thing. So thank you, sir. Shoot. It's emotional. Thank you.
03:00:21.080Yeah. This is the conclusion of a long road for you and Take Back Alberta. They just didn't see
03:00:28.300what you guys had coming. Corey, how surprised are you by the results tonight?
03:00:34.180Well, I mean, it was close to where I was predicting, but as I said, that was a spitball.
03:00:37.140I could have just as easily been wronged by 10%.
03:00:40.100I am, I guess, happy that, as we've said in this scenario,
03:00:46.540I'm sticking with sadness because I was enthusiastic with Kenny going in,
03:00:49.180but I'd made up my mind some time ago that he just couldn't seem to put it together
03:01:20.300But to do the right thing in that moment.
03:01:22.160So one second, we're going to bring Mike Solberg back into the stream here.
03:01:27.660We're going to go to Paul Hinman in a little bit.
03:01:29.900But first, let's pull Mike Solberg back in.
03:01:32.540And Mike, I'm really interested for your take here, not the results you were hoping for tonight.
03:01:40.300Well, you know, hope is the wrong connotation, Derek.
03:01:45.140I mean, absolutely, I supported Jason Kenney.
03:01:47.560I supported, but I more so supported the United Party, and I support the will of the membership.
03:01:51.960I'm proud of my friend David for the work that he did, and I'm equally as proud of Jason Kenney and his campaign and ultimately his resignation.
03:02:00.580He clearly didn't have the result that he wanted and clearly not the result that I think was remotely adequate to remain as leader of this party.
03:02:10.420It's certainly a governing party on the eve of an election.
03:04:24.560It's all been tabled. It's all been said. What we witnessed was the end of a brilliant 30 year political career. You could see himself that the premier was emotional in his remarks. And I think anybody could understand why this is not a result he expected, but one he's accepted and is now stepping down for the future of the party and is willing to accept, you know, what is I think we all agree is the right path forward, but certainly emotional.
03:04:51.320And I'm sorry, I'm still flabbergasted, you know, Jason Kenney, the political juggernaut that we've seen as such an important part of the conservative coalition, the conservative establishment in the country and bridging the gap and the divide between the PCs and the Wild Rose and delivering on that 2019 victory.
03:05:09.200We've seen it come to an end even before the next election. I don't think anybody predicted it would end this way, but he did it with some grace.
03:05:16.660And I think he did it for the benefit of the party. And now we move on. We have to.
03:05:20.580so I I'm not allowed to throw anything about you're right you're wrong in your face because
03:05:26.240I was wrong because I said 45 so I'm technically wrong too wrong by methodology correct and result
03:05:33.260but just to I'm only going to throw something back in your face because it's going to make
03:05:38.220an analogy it's going to make a transition to my next analogy you know your case for why he
03:05:42.800is likely to survive was that he has always won he has never lost therefore he probably will never
03:05:48.640lose. And it is not without a deep sense of irony that, you know, he has never come close to losing
03:05:57.260any electoral contest before, both in general elections and leaderships, nominations. The one
03:06:03.060he did lose was the membership of the party that he is the father of. It is, you know, I said
03:06:12.260something uh the day i left politics revolutions devour their young and uh i i think that uh the
03:06:21.620revolution has now devoured kenny and uh you know he he very much helped to mainstream a lot of the
03:06:28.580grassroots populist movement and you know built that helped to build that anger against ottawa and
03:06:34.660channel it if any i think by most measures failed to deliver on that anger against ottawa and and so
03:06:41.060that anger came back to bite him and he would use strong language against things like vaccine
03:06:47.220passports and lockdowns and then he would do it himself and so i i think there's there is uh
03:06:54.900there is a real pattern of him jumping on a populist wave only to fall off the surfboard
03:07:01.700and hit the rocks and and and today uh i think what was the end of that did do you think that's
03:07:08.420a fair i think uh maybe summation of the kind of overall macro reasons for the why he's lost the
03:07:14.180premiership now or or is it something else no for sure i think you hit it derek uh you know premier
03:07:19.860himself would i think i admit to some of these missteps and i'll certainly take it even a step
03:07:23.780further uh you know regardless of what you think about these issues taking one stance and then
03:07:28.980doing the exact opposite and you know the weeks to follow doesn't sit well with any membership
03:07:34.580particularly one that's so grassroots driven uh and conservative as the obviously the united
03:07:39.300conservative party uh and they lost faith in him over a slow period of time uh i think beginning
03:07:46.100with with covet which to be clear heavy is the head that wears the crown nobody would would wear
03:07:51.540relish governing during every government every province of this country has had enormous
03:07:57.700challenges uh with their population and popularity over their handling of of covet and kenny more so
03:08:04.100than i think perhaps anyone well i think the big difference between kenny and the other premiers
03:08:07.700is he was dealing with albertans yeah and albert are fundamentally different and he kept on pointing
03:08:12.740out you know hey uh you know we are our lockdowns have been shorter than others we got rid of
03:08:18.420vaccine passports before other provinces the problem is alberta is a very different province
03:08:24.740we it has a fundamentally different political culture yeah uh so we're to come back to you
03:08:30.740Mike and David, but I want to bring in Rachel Emanuel, our Alberta legislative reporter and
03:08:36.980Edmonton bureau chief. She is on the ground. It's Bruce Meadows where Jason Kenney has just announced
03:08:43.380his resignation. Can we bring in Rachel right now? Rachel, thank you for joining us. What's it like
03:08:52.020there right now? It's pretty crazy. Everyone is super surprised. I'm not sure anyone really knows
03:08:57.380what to make of the situation right now as soon as they announced the results the crowd started
03:09:01.300cheering everyone was very excited um and then the premier came out and he immediately says you know
03:09:05.620it's not the results that i was hoping for which caught my attention because of course this entire
03:09:09.620time he's been saying 50 plus one is a mandate for me to continue so everyone assumed he was
03:09:14.260going to stay on as long as he had over 50 percent um and then he continues on to say it's not a
03:09:19.060mandate it's not enough for me to stay on the members have made it clear that they want a
03:09:23.220leadership review um and it's time to put the division behind us and unite and he announced
03:09:27.540that he was resigning and everyone in the crowd just gaffed no one could really believe it i just
03:09:31.860spoke with a couple of his staffers they didn't even know that this was coming so everyone's
03:09:35.620pretty surprised no one really knows what to make of things um no one has really any answers right
03:09:39.540now at all um have you managed to speak with uh any of your staff because i know it's a fairly
03:09:48.420hand-picked crowd they have there tonight. It's not open to general admission from the
03:09:53.560membership or the public. It's hand-picked Kenny people. Have you managed to speak with anyone on
03:09:57.720the ground? Yeah I was just speaking with his press secretary and again like people are just
03:10:01.860pretty confused. No one saw this coming and no one has any answers about what's happening next so
03:10:06.600I'm not sure who all knew that this decision that Kenny was going to be resigning just now
03:10:11.280but like even as early as yesterday he said if I get 50% plus one I'm going to continue
03:10:15.380you. So I would just be curious to know what changed in the last day, you know, if he just
03:10:19.500thought about it more, if he made a last minute decision to resign. I'm not really sure what
03:10:23.400happened there. And it seems like his staff don't have any answers either.
03:10:29.060Yeah, I think I'll get your your feedback, Corey. He's been saying 50% plus one is a mandate.
03:10:38.160I mean, if I was a press secretary to a premier or a leader of any political party,
03:10:42.300I would set the bar there, because if you set the bar
03:17:34.240So I remember, you know, I wasn't a member of the Wild Rose at the time, but I would
03:17:38.940It's safe to say I was Wild Rose adjacent while Alison Redford was the premier.
03:17:44.340I was very much looking forward to a Wild Rose victory at that time
03:17:49.000with Danielle Smith as the leader of the party.
03:17:51.680You were a key member of the party at that time as well.
03:17:55.180And I remember, you know, she was under a lot of fire,
03:17:58.100and we kind of thought to ourselves, my God, we have to save her.
03:18:02.940You know, as terrible as Alison Redford, what we believe she was,
03:18:06.240we saw her as our meal ticket to defeat the progressive conservatives and have a wild rose
03:18:11.840government. I have to believe it's not much of a stretch to think that both you and Rachel
03:18:19.520Notley, the one thing you have in common is that you're the two people in Alberta who really
03:18:23.860dislike Jason Kenney as premier, but don't want him to resign because he was the meal ticket,
03:18:29.820I think, for the wild rose independence party, attracting disaffected people and potentially
03:18:36.000you know, if the nightmare scenario for the UCP played out today, 51% and Kenny stayed,
03:18:43.860I mean, I think it's not terribly beyond the pale to think that you'd probably have a couple of
03:18:49.960MLAs showing up on your door in the morning looking to join. Do you think this is politically,
03:18:59.500I know you believe it's a good thing for Alberta, you've made that clear, but do you think this is
03:19:03.760potentially a setback for your party absolutely i mean as you mentioned the animosity towards him
03:19:11.240and the fact that there would have been dissident mlas had he stayed on tonight uh would accelerate
03:19:17.580that and again this is always the problem in dysfunctional toxic relationships they say oh
03:19:22.720i'm sorry or they do this and so now many albertans are going to run back to the ucp party
03:19:27.240saying oh we've got a leadership review and and you get that honeymoon effect and so yes
03:19:32.000this idea that we're going to give them another chance is there but again i'm going to go back
03:19:36.800and say the most important thing is who's making the decisions for alberta are we going to have
03:19:41.140federalists that let ottawa decide or are we going to vote for someone like myself in the wild rose
03:19:45.860who's going to stand up and have a mandate to say no to ottawa and all their destructive policies
03:19:50.860and so that will still be the same ballot question but yes they're going to get a honeymoon because
03:19:55.960they're having a leadership race which isn't going to serve albertans best interest i don't think
03:20:00.620So I've got one last question for you before we go back to Janet Brown. And forgive me if I've got my history wrong here, because this is going back a ways to the last time you were the leader of a Wild Rose party.
03:20:12.840If I'm not mistaken, you know, when Ted Morton was running for the leadership of the Progressive Conservatives the first time, not the second, but the first time, and you were in Alberta Alliance MLA, predating even the Wild Rose, you really are the godfather of Alberta's insurgent right.
03:20:29.260You, and I say insurgent in the most positive way possible, but, you know, if I'm not, you can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that you did tell the members of the Alberta Alliance at the time that Ted Morton is fundamentally different.
03:20:46.100he represents a total change of the progressive conservatives and that you you did encourage
03:20:51.200members of the alberta alliance precursor to the original wilders at the time to vote for ted
03:20:56.120morton because he was that different and you could see yourself becoming a part of the party
03:20:59.520if it had a leader like him i'm not asking you to identify the only thing the only thing that
03:21:07.320you're wrong there was is that i always told ted that if he was successful that the most important
03:21:11.720thing he needed was a conservative opposition and he says well paul the first thing i'm going to do
03:21:16.000is call you in the morning to join and says, no, Ted, you're going to need a conservative
03:21:19.420opposition. That's when a conservative government does best. But again, I absolutely told our
03:21:25.320members back then, buy a membership, vote for Ted Morton. This is the person we need as the
03:21:30.080premier. And again, for me, it's always, what's the right thing to do?
03:21:34.540Again, and forget the current candidates who are on offer. I know there's Brian Jean and
03:21:38.520Danielle Smith, and there'll be a bunch of others. Forget any of the individuals. But if
03:21:44.120if that kind of figure emerged again, someone who shared your values, they were really conservative,
03:21:50.420really libertarian, perhaps even supported independence for Alberta even. Could you see
03:21:56.500yourself encouraging your party members, members of the Wildrose Independence Party, to join the
03:22:01.120UCP just to vote for that candidate? Not this time. The problem, and you said that last one,
03:22:06.580if they're an independence, that they won't stay part of the UCP, I don't believe. Those people
03:22:11.500that are running in there are all federalists. They also are climate alarmists. They all want
03:22:16.840to meet the Paris Accord. Carbon net zero is wrong. We can't be part of Paris. We can't be part of a
03:22:22.560Canada that wants to meet carbon net zero. We have to take a different route, and we have to be able
03:22:27.620to stand up for our resources, our future, and the taxation and the debt that's federally is just
03:22:34.140insurmountable, and we need to be out on our own, and that's what the Wild Roads Independence Party
03:22:38.820is about. It's about standing up and protecting Alberta and our future. And I just don't see
03:22:43.080that happening in the UCP party. And again, anybody who wants to be there, it'd be interesting
03:22:47.340to see, but I don't see that happening, Derek. Well, thank you very much for joining us. Always
03:22:52.100a pleasure as usual, Paul. Have a good evening. And let's go cheer on some Alberta teams here
03:22:58.920for a victory. The executive politician, tell us which one. Oh, I have to confess, I was born in
03:23:05.040Edmonton, went to U of A, knew, you know, was up there with Gretzky and all of that.
03:23:09.080So sorry, Western standards in Calgary, but I'm an oiler.
03:23:35.040Okay. Well, we're going to go to bring back Janet Brown, who has very generously agreed to give us her time again. Janet, many of you will know, is the leading pollster in Alberta. Wow. No more speculation. No more wild speculation. We have wild reality, Janet. I'm not even going to ask a question. Just talk.
03:23:55.900You know, you asked me about the the Flames versus Oilers.
03:24:15.900Rural Alberta, Alberta outside of the two major cities, they're going to be looking for the right conservative choice for them to vote for.
03:24:23.900The next election is going to be determined by voters in Calgary.
03:24:27.140So that's just kind of what I'm thinking now is like Calgary is going to become sort of, you know, so fundamental.
03:24:35.140And, you know, we're such a divided province.
03:24:38.000I, you know, I'm always asked to do interviews outside of Alberta and people don't understand how diverse this province is.
03:24:47.060People in Ontario call me all the time. Oh, you live in Edmonton.
03:24:50.200No, actually, I live in Calgary. And they're like, same difference. Right.
03:24:53.040think calgary and edmonton or kitchener and waterloo but they could not be um more different
03:24:58.560and our very complicated political map just got so much more complicated and you know our divisions
03:25:07.120and hockey is just the tip of the iceberg well the hockey analogy i think sort of holds but uh
03:25:14.640there's no team for everyone else in alberta i always find it funny in polls i'm not sure if you
03:25:20.640do it, but a lot of polls just say Edmonton, Calgary, rural, and rural includes Red Deer
03:25:25.600and Medicine Hat. Yeah, there's a lot of things in small towns. I think a lot of the ones I like
03:25:33.200to say, everyone else. And then there might be regional breakdowns, North, South, Central,
03:25:36.960that kind of thing. And it really, you know, from a technical point of view, Derek, it really comes
03:25:43.120down to just how big a sample you do. Because, you know, if you talk to 900, 1000 people,
03:25:48.320you know it's hard to get statistically relevant data outside the two big cities um sometimes i
03:25:53.520make the mistake of saying that's rural really it's other because as i said calgary and edmonton
03:25:58.640are so different and then we have this huge rest of the province that is so different and so um
03:26:07.760i i get like i moved from ontario 22 years ago i was the consummate downtown toronto party girl
03:26:14.400my friends couldn't believe I was coming to Alberta. But I just said, it is just so fascinating
03:26:20.320out there. And here I am just like, I mean, my jaw dropped, right? Like, I, you know, I believe
03:26:30.960the premier when he said 50.1 was enough. So I, my jaw dropped when he resigned.
03:26:38.560Yeah. Now, I think, you know, you're the pollster. So I know, I don't have quite the moral
03:26:44.080authority on these issues as you. But I do pride myself on having probably a better insight than
03:26:50.960most people in media into understanding Alberta conservatives, particularly rural conservatives,
03:26:57.040populists, that movement. And you have said that, yes, you know, the Battle of Edmonton
03:27:03.840versus Calgary is still there. But in my view, what has changed overnight, and you probably
03:27:10.320heard me into this somewhat with paul hinman is that um the serious risk likely of a of a major
03:27:17.640breakaway uh with something wild rose style is uh well it's no it's not impossible it now becomes
03:27:25.200much much less likely okay uh we're not we're not likely to see six 12 mlas bolt join maybe
03:27:34.440some rebranded wild rose party and and lead some kind of insurrection there um that while it's
03:27:41.780technically because nothing changes um i think that is a big story i mean i maybe want you to
03:27:48.300weigh in on this that um the fact that nothing is going to change i think is the big one of the big
03:27:53.940stories for the electoral map that we're unlikely to see that kind of big revolt that i expected
03:27:58.660tonight if kenny stuck around well one of the things i was saying in the lead up to this vote
03:28:02.880is actually if he steps down that's the least chaotic outcome of all of the outcomes so as
03:28:09.120shocking as all of this is um nobody's going to be kicked out of caucus tomorrow and probably
03:28:14.320nobody's going to resign and um everyone just got to wait and see who wins the the leadership race
03:28:20.960um maybe the new leader won't be acceptable to some of these dissident um mlas maybe a new leader
03:28:27.520will be perfectly suitable to the dissident mlas but not like to like by another group of mlas who
03:28:33.440are perfectly content with jason kenny so um so funny enough i think uh tomorrow's caucus meeting
03:28:40.560is going to be a lot more civil because kenny has stepped down than it would have been if he got 51.4
03:28:49.920and hung on and wagged his fingers and said democracy has spoken fall in line so we're
03:28:57.120moving into essentially what's going to be a a snap leadership election and we've got the clock
03:29:02.160ticking on a general election coming next may uh the parties i mean it for the sake of democracy
03:29:08.240gonna have to leave the door open for a number of names and and potential contenders come in
03:29:11.920and get in but at the same time they can't hesitate on this either like they've got to
03:29:16.160get somebody on the ground to try and win back albertans that's gonna be tough well it particularly
03:29:21.440because the leader of the opposition is Rachel Notley. And, you know, whether you like her or
03:29:27.500not, she's very popular within her base, right? She had a leadership review not long ago and got
03:29:32.640something like, you know, 95, 97%. So Rachel Notley has got the left and a big part of the
03:29:39.220centre locked up. She's probably very close to her ceiling in terms of vote. But, you know,0.94
03:29:46.820this is why the UCP must get themselves organized if they have any chance of winning the next
03:29:51.940election because you know unlike elections of the past um you know this UCP is looking at a very
03:29:58.900strong and united um NDP. Great all right well uh Janet thank you very much for joining us tonight
03:30:05.780but extremely generous with your time uh I think I think joining us uh three times if I'm not
03:30:10.580mistaken. So I lost count. Everyone was fun. Yeah, we owe you a beer. Thank you very much for joining
03:30:17.460us. And God bless. Thank you. Well, and thank all of you for joining us. We're not going to abuse
03:30:24.100your time. We are up against as great as I think we are. We're not. The battle, this battle of
03:30:31.140Alberta is over. There'll be another battle of Alberta starting as we fight to see who the next
03:30:35.700leader of the ucp and premier is uh but tonight uh you all want to watch the flames versus the
03:30:42.180oilers uh so thank you all very much for for joining if you're not yet a member of the western
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