The big debate is finally here. On May 17th, two of Alberta s major parties will take on each other in a debate that could have a big impact on the outcome of the election. Who will come out on top?
00:01:10.300And I'm a sucker for lost causes like this.
00:01:12.860We're going to talk about the little guys, the third, fourth, fifth, eighth, tenth parties in Alberta and the candidates that they're fielding.
00:01:22.260We're also going to talk wildfire politics.
00:01:24.260It's primarily what the impact it's having on the election, the ability of the parties to campaign, but also the ability of people to vote in these regions that are facing, obviously, a ton of upheaval.
00:01:38.000It's going to be very difficult to get to the polls.
00:01:40.020We'll talk about how that might affect the election.
00:01:42.180As well, a new phenomenon I had seen before.
00:01:45.700We've all seen attack ads on television, on the radio.
00:03:55.800And you have the UCP, which is not any of those things, very committed to economic growth,
00:04:02.940putting more money in the pockets of individual people.
00:04:05.900and, importantly, letting them follow their own dreams to build the life they want to build.
00:04:11.980I know there's differences between these parties, but I'm talking in an electoral sense for this election.
00:04:17.420The debate sometimes makes a difference, sometimes doesn't, but the parties are deadlocked going into this.
00:04:23.080Yeah, I think this time the debates actually are going to matter.
00:04:26.180Just checking some numbers here, and it seems to me that the public has been somewhat disengaged
00:04:30.640for the first couple of weeks of this election.
00:04:34.260And the buzz that I get is that a lot of folks are just sitting on the sidelines until they see the debate.
00:04:40.340They're all looking for the knockout blow or the very clear indication that this candidate rather than that candidate has got the royal jelly to carry on to the job.
00:04:51.800Both of them have been there before into the premier's office.
00:04:56.740So, yes, there's a huge amount riding on it.
00:04:59.820Corey, I think it's not a stretch to say. The UCP and Danielle Smith have had a less than excellent campaign. I don't think it's time to, it's definitely not time to launch the boats yet, but the expectations of Danielle Smith, I think, are pretty low right now.
00:05:20.760The NDP and a lot of surrogates in the media have painted her as very extreme, that she's crazy, she's not serious.
00:05:30.260And so I think that that set the bar very low for Daniel Smith.
00:05:33.280And a lot of this is the expectations game.
00:05:37.260One of the problems for the conservatives in 2015 nationally was that the expectations of Justin Trudeau were so low.
00:05:44.060Corey Tanike, a conservative strategist, famously said, if Justin Trudeau manages to show up with his pants on, it'll be a victory.
00:05:50.100Problem is, he did show up with his pants on, and even though it wasn't a very good performance,
00:05:54.020he exceeded everyone's expectations and got a big bounce from it.
00:05:58.880So going into this, does Danielle Smith need to win, get that knockout blow,1.00
00:06:04.840or do you think, does she just really need to show up and seem reasonable and personable,0.68
00:06:10.220and that'll be enough for hesitant conservatives who think, you know,
00:06:14.340maybe kind of bought some of the messaging that she's crazy?
00:07:12.880to explain the context of those statements or where they went. And if she can come across
00:07:16.800sounding rational and reasonable, potentially a lot of that doubt people have about her
00:07:21.760might start to wane. But we'll see. The other thing is, too, I mean, the debate made a big
00:07:26.740difference, I think, when Notley got in before, because it appeared that Prentice was almost
00:07:31.120bullying Notley and talking down to her. Well, this is two women on the stage. So I don't think
00:07:36.160Daniel Smith has to be afraid of rolling her sleeves up if it gets into things.1.00
00:07:39.060It's, it's an interesting debate because you've got two veterans. This is a former premier who has been in two provincial leaders debates before Rachel Notley, and Danielle Smith, who has been in a leaders debate before when she led the Wildrose in 2012. And she's been around media for a long time.
00:08:03.100It's a rare debate, I think, where you've only got one veteran, you've got one veteran and a bunch of newbies.
00:08:08.840Or if it's the case federally, and whoever the NDP happens to be, they might be veterans, but they're not the big boy in the debate.
00:08:30.740And every pundit and reporter talks about it. It's a bit belabored. But the NDP needs to not, needs to significantly beat the UCP in Calgary. I think she has to get a smashing blow against Smith, whereas I think Smith just has to appear reasonable because she has the built-in advantage of being a conservative in Alberta.
00:08:50.480David Rubenstein That's exactly right. And I'm sure Rachel
00:08:56.160Notley is preparing for this. But the danger, given that she's on the attack, is that she can't
00:09:02.080afford to sound shrill while Danielle Smith is being calm and reasonable and just fending off0.97
00:09:09.440the attacks. So it's going to require a degree of careful phrasing and modulation of the voice
00:09:18.400to make sure that she doesn't overdo the attack because she certainly has to attack. Otherwise,0.93
00:09:22.880why are you there? But on the other hand, she has that disadvantage. She doesn't want to come on1.00
00:09:28.160too strong and just incite the sympathy factor for Daniel Smith, which is going to be there.
00:09:36.560This is, in Canada, the first time I'll have at least seen in my lifetime,
00:09:42.400a one-on-one leaders debate. We've never seen it before. Federally, you know, prior to 1993,
00:09:48.400it was normally three leaders. You have the PC, the Liberal, and the New Democrat.
00:09:54.68093, that blew up. You have reform in there. You have the block in there.
00:09:59.060Eventually, reform goes away, but then we have green. We've gotten used to these big leaders
00:10:02.680debates. In Alberta, we've had normally three, often four. But this time, it's just two. It is
00:10:13.000one-on-one, mano-a-mano, however inappropriate that term is in the context with two women.1.00
00:10:19.480We've had the two frontrunners be women before. Danielle Smith's first debate in 2012 against1.00
00:10:25.380Alison Redford, but you still had Brian Mason, a man, as the NDP leader. You had Raj Sherman,
00:10:30.760the liberal leader, who's now a UCP candidate, funny enough. I love Raj.
00:10:36.200Yeah, Raj against the machine. But it's just woman on woman. Corey, how do you think that's
00:10:42.620going to change the dynamics of the debate? Well, as I said, it takes out the bullying
00:10:47.620factor in a sense. I mean, there's sort of equals upon the stage. You can't say one's
00:10:51.520taking advantage of the other. There is a risk whether it's unfair or not. As Nigel pointed
00:10:56.420out, though, is a woman coming off too strongly can be considered to be shrill and can be labeled1.00
00:11:01.620as such. I know, you know, it's just an unfairness of gender life, but so they both have to take0.95
00:11:07.920care with that. And in looking for, I guess, the proverbial knockout blow, I don't expect it
00:11:13.140because both of them are so experienced as they are. The only really one I can remember seeing
00:11:17.740in Canada, they always talk about one, but Turner and Mulroney, we got to go that far back to really
00:11:22.600see a debate where somebody was sweating and put right out of sorts. And that was the end of the
00:11:28.860debate for them. But aside from that, you don't see them very often. And when you get two such
00:11:33.040experienced operators, I think they're going to go at it hard. But I don't know if we're going
00:11:37.740to see any big outstanding breakdowns. Okay, but I think, but Notley has to win solidly.
00:11:47.260Now, it doesn't always have to take the form of the John Turner, Brian Mulroney, full-on
00:11:52.020knockout, but you had 2015, where it was actually more of Prentice knocking himself out. Notley
00:11:59.160came across as personable, smiling, knowledgeable-ish, kind of newer. He doesn't come across like
00:12:05.820that anymore. So that's going to be harder. I don't know. I don't know. She's seasoned. She's
00:12:10.140been practicing for it. I mean, they've probably glued a smile on her face for now. I mean,
00:12:15.220she'll have like the Joker smile on her here. She might come across that way. But in 2015,
00:12:21.240it was kind of Prentice more or less just stepping on rakes the whole time that made him lose it.
00:14:28.760Corey, how, how the mighty have fallen?
00:14:32.200Yeah, I mean, again, from Alberta's founding party, to
00:14:36.080the point of being a embarrassingly can't even draw
00:14:39.220somebody to apply for the job of leader. They're giving it more
00:14:42.880of a go in this election than I would have thought after that
00:14:45.100leadership kind of fiasco, but they're not going to go anywhere. Nobody takes them seriously
00:14:49.720anymore. It's been a decline ever since decor in the 90s. Just every election, they've been
00:14:54.640withering and withering and down to this. I guess they're holding that shell together and hoping
00:14:59.320somebody will pick it up later. But this time, I don't expect much of them. Nigel, why are they
00:15:05.000still a party? The NDP did more or less what the Wildrose and PCs had to formally do. They just
00:15:13.920consolidated the left behind themselves. They didn't have to have a merger
00:15:17.860to do it, but they just did it. They are the left.
00:15:22.020They are the progressive side of politics in Alberta, and it's
00:15:25.880undisputed. No one can challenge them for it.
00:15:30.600Why are the liberals still here? Is it just that
00:15:33.760the liberal brand has this attachment for some people where the liberals
00:15:38.200dang nabbit, we're not going away? Should the liberals
00:15:42.000just dissolve themselves in Alberta, or do you think there is a place for them at some point?
00:15:46.720Well, no, I don't think they should dissolve themselves. We always want a bad example out
00:15:51.840there to push us in the direction of the better example. Let's face it, the Liberal Party is not
00:15:57.200exactly a winning card in Alberta. We have a federal Liberal Party that has been toxic for
00:16:04.560this province, and you've got a group of people saying, we're liberals and we want to be, we want
00:16:10.160want to be elected in Alberta. That's crazy stuff. If you're a leftist in Alberta, if you're a liberal,
00:16:16.420socialist, whatever flavor of progressive you are, doesn't it make sense to just dissolve yourself
00:16:21.860and move on? Like you're running 13 paper candidates. I doubt they're running even a single
00:16:26.400semi-serious campaign. They're just running because they're the liberals. It makes sense
00:16:33.260because hope springs eternal. Don't forget there was a period of time when the federal liberal
00:16:36.600party was down to 34 seats but it was above zero well it was above zero but when you're looking at
00:16:43.700it in the context of a party that has spent most of this time running canada uh that was a deep and
00:16:51.100humiliating defeat that uh that was delivered to them the the alberta liberals are going on
00:16:57.120120 years plus out of power here yeah so they're so so there probably is within a few diehards
00:17:05.660who continue to fund this thing. No, no, no one's even still funding it. It raises no money. It
00:17:10.940raises no money. It's raising no money. There is nothing there. Well, then let's just say it's a
00:17:18.220triumph of hope over experience. Okay. Let's talk about the hope springing eternal. You know who I'm
00:17:26.380going to talk about next. Who am I going to talk about? Probably Paul Hinman. No? Okay. Well,
00:17:31.100there's a few of these. Alberta party. Alberta party. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.
00:17:34.540Yeah, Alberta party. So once upon a time, this was actually like a pretty right wing independence party. But it was it was taken over. It is now a completely different thing. So it's you almost have to separate them. They're not the same party.
00:17:47.780It's the very first party I was provincially a member of was the Alberta party in the 90s.
00:17:52.880Before the Alberta independence party.
00:17:55.560I founded the Alberta independence party by taking some board members from them. But that's a long story.
00:17:59.400So the Alberta Party, in its modern form, was created circa 2010-ish, in its modern form.
00:18:05.900In its modern form. Somewhere around there.
00:18:07.000Yeah. And it billed itself as, you know, the big listen. We're going to listen to people. What do we stand for? Well, what do you want us to stand for?
00:18:15.780And the idea was to be a centrist party. It didn't work when you had a so-called centrist party with Alice and Redford, 2012. They didn't make it in. No seats.
00:18:28.380They managed to win one seat with Greg Clark.
00:20:37.860Well, actually, but that's actually maybe a smart move because at least it's distinctive from the two other parties.
00:20:42.720Well, it's distinctive, and who wants it?
00:20:44.300A surprisingly large minority. There is a minority of people who do it. And, you know, it's actually, if they would actually replicate that on more issues, they would maybe get traction because, you know, when you're an insurgency party, you're trying to break in, you have to be distinctive from all the other big options.
00:21:01.260But normally you have to pry off of one side or the other. You can't be just distinctive and in the middle because then you just get washed out.
00:21:07.900I don't know. I'm trying to run on. I understand the arguments why provincial sales tax might be beneficial. Nevertheless, I'm not debating the merits. I'm running on a running on a hey, we put a new tax for you. What a great start for a for a party that wants to wants to get elected.
00:21:33.540Shockingly, at least by number of candidates, the Greens are the third party in Alberta.
00:21:38.820Now, they're likely, actually, I'd say, to come in third in the popular vote because, say you prefer the Alberta Party or Wild Rose Independence Party or the Liberals or whatever it is, if there's no candidate you're running, you can't vote for them.
00:21:51.440So the Greens have the most candidates available to vote for. So I'd say bold prediction, even though the Greens don't rate any heartbeat in Alberta, the polls, they'll probably come in third in the popular vote.
00:22:04.440I guess the conventional wisdom, Nigel, is that the Greens being on the ballot will be favorable to the UCP because Green votes, I think smart money says, would otherwise be more likely to go to the NDP.
00:22:18.440I think the smart money is right on that one.
00:22:46.980somebody else can make the decision. You know, it's, again, here's a party that wants to run
00:22:53.240on the just transition. And that's basically a way to turn good paying jobs into bad paying jobs,
00:23:00.000not a vote winner. So, Corey, the, if, try to put yourself in the shoes of a pretty hardcore
00:23:08.900greeny voter in Alberta. And there are some, they exist. What do you think you do? I mean, you got,
00:23:17.620you know, Rachel Notley, as hardcore she is on some of this stuff, by the standards of
00:23:23.620New Democrats nationally, a lot of national Democrats say West Coast New Democrats and
00:23:28.340Ontario New Democrats, consider her a sellout to big oil. I mean, that's baffling to many here in
00:23:33.060Alberta. But outside of Alberta, the fact that she doesn't believe in shutting down the industry0.98
00:23:38.260tomorrow night that she supported the Trans Mountain expansion. She opposed the construction
00:23:43.060of other Alberta pipelines, but there was at least one that she supported the construction of.
00:23:49.220What do you do? Would you vote green, which is like, I'm sending a message that I'm really
00:23:53.540concerned about the environment, or are you going to say, okay, Rachel Notley is a bit weak sauce0.99
00:23:59.700for my green credentials, but I mean, it's Alberta for God's sakes, and she gave us a carbon tax.1.00
00:24:04.580you know, what do you do? Well, if somebody's that ideologically driven, the true absolute,
00:24:11.360you know, shut in the... I'm not saying somebody who's like off the, you know, living in the woods
00:24:15.480like... Well, no, that's the irony of those people. They're usually living in Kensington in a nice
00:24:20.300house that they inherited, but they still somehow feel we can shut down the oil field and close those
00:24:25.260things in. I think they would park their vote with the Greens, just on principle, rather knowing that
00:24:30.140they're not going to win, but they're registering their message and their thoughts on it.
00:24:34.580And as well as Nigel said, they're a safe place just to make your mark, you know, make your protest.
00:24:41.000So they'll grab that bet. And as you said, they've got 41 candidates.
00:24:43.340So, yeah, they'll probably check off that rank.
00:24:45.440A third, who knows, that might give them the shell to start filling that void.
00:24:48.940The Liberals in the Alberta Party just can't seem to find out there.
00:24:52.120Maybe the Greens will carve a little corner, but it'll always be a little one.
00:24:55.800You know, I can think of a lot of places where the NDP is the default choice.
00:24:59.260And I think a lot of places where the UCP is the default choice.
00:25:02.260I can't think of a single place where I say, oh, you know, the Greens, that just fits that community so well.
00:25:08.260Outside of Salt Spring Island, yeah, there's nothing here in Alberta.
00:25:10.260Okay, well, the next four parties we're going to deal with kind of together.
00:25:15.260It's the constellation of the, call it the dissident right.
00:25:20.260And, you know, some of us got a soft spot for it, but it's, I think it's not too controversial to say it's not their time.
00:25:27.260So in here, we've got four parties. We've got the Wild Rose Independence Party. And boy, that has busted from, say, a year and a half ago. A year and a half ago, the Wild Rose Independence Party was running about 15% in the polls with Jason Kenney still as UCP leader.
00:25:46.300With his resignation and Daniel Smith coming in, that support evaporated.
00:25:54.220The party had massive internal turmoil, as small parties full of very individualist people tend to do.
00:26:02.060They kicked out their leader, Paul Hinman.
00:26:05.320And then I think post-Sovereignty Act, I think a lot of their own senior activists, they more or less said, okay, that's not our time.
00:31:21.820Yeah. So these guys have to kind of hope for a bit of that.
00:31:24.500But this election is the best they can hope for is just to hold it together and not really do anything further to to blow themselves up.
00:31:32.180Yeah. You know, I mean, it's not just what they say is the credibility that if they were elected, what could they do with it?
00:31:38.560Because sometimes you get somebody say, yeah, I agree with that, that, and that. Straight ticket.
00:31:43.680Okay. I'm not voting for you. Well, we've had lots of wild rows, two parties named wild rows
00:31:47.760on the ballot here, in addition to UCP, which was built largely by wild, half by wild rows.
00:31:54.560Let's move it to wildfires, wildfire politics. We're not going to get into the fires themselves.
00:32:01.440They're obviously terrible and they're destructive, but they've been there at least by a number of
00:32:06.160of evacuees. It's less evacuees than say the 2016 fires that saw for McMurray devastated. I was talking to one, I guess, wasn't MLA until the election was called. He's a candidate again in northern Alberta. I was talking to him today. His campaign has been suspended for something like 10 days because his constituency is on fire and he's just dealing with that. We've discussed previously on this. I think your only play in a disaster is not to politicize it.
00:32:36.160by trying to politicize it, I think, no pun intended, you'll get burned. So the best you
00:32:40.640can do is just try to be a community leader, coordinate things. But I guess let's just talk,
00:32:46.480Nigel, how do you think, how much do you think the wildfire has affected the election by
00:32:51.920requiring Danielle Smith, and to a lesser extent, Rachel Notley to take time away from campaigning0.70
00:32:57.200to deal with a disaster? Well, I'm not sure that it's such a bad thing as a leader to be placed
00:33:03.360in the middle of a disaster and show some leadership it's worked for others it is easier
00:33:09.520when the disaster has already been completed and you are there to show leadership and picking up
00:33:16.800the pieces when it is ongoing as this one is it's well what are you going to do for me next
00:33:22.640madam in this case uh that's a slightly different thing but nevertheless um you know when it comes1.00
00:33:30.640down to a contest of character we've already established that it's rachel notley versus
00:33:36.800danielle smith who do you like most it's not about policy so maybe if you can demonstrate
00:33:44.240that quality of compassion empathy and above all leadership by stepping into the fire zone
00:33:50.960being there encouraging the the workers and the people who've been and making suitable provision
00:33:56.240for those who've been made homeless, then that's actually a bit positive.
00:34:00.400I'm not sure there's much advantage in it, though, because, you know,
00:34:02.700Rachel Notley did fine with the 2016 wildfires.
00:34:05.900As we've said on the show previously, the politicians follow a script.
00:34:09.820They're not actually really doing very much.
00:36:53.160You know, hear lots of NDP attack ads.
00:36:55.500Daniel Smith is going to take your pension and sell your hospital.
00:37:00.700But we have seen positive campaign signs before beyond just like, you know, Corey Morgan, crazy French party.
00:37:08.480You know, beyond that, you know, Wildrose would put out signs saying fight equalization or something like it was more your party slogans.
00:37:17.740But I've never seen attack ads up. There's a number of I think there's a few of them.
00:37:23.420But this is the most common one of these signs where it's Danielle Smith put on on a weather vane where the rooster normally goes saying, what will she do next?
00:37:31.000And I was talking to a lot of UCPers and I'd say, well, this is nasty.
00:38:47.900I still think it was my little brother who did it, but I'll just say there's a risk in putting your own face out there.
00:38:52.920He'll put your face on the sign. Keep it to your party name and your name. He'll put your face on it. It's going to get mad.
00:38:59.400Yes, yes. I don't think it's a brilliant tactic. We'll see what happens. It's unprecedented, though, to have the other person's face on the sign.
00:39:06.640Nigel, I got a chuckle today. You sent me an email, because, you know, we've seen these signs all around Calgary.
00:39:13.000And you sent me an email with, I guess, the UCP's response to these signs.
00:39:18.880Because I've had, you know, a lot of, you know, some conservatives have been saying, oh, I hate these signs.
00:39:23.640We've got to get our own up, slim and notly.
00:40:41.560People will pass around their little video clips, and they will pass around, I mean, I thought that the person who sent this picture that we're looking at now, to me, had taken it himself.
00:40:54.280Well, it turns out the thing's going viral on the internet, you know, so it's just, they're quite clever like that, and I have to say, I have to admire that.
00:41:03.500People don't want to be yelled at and screamed at all of a sudden, sometimes.
00:41:07.400Yeah, it was definitely a better response. I mean, it's not as epic. You know, we'll actually end the show with this. But it reminded me as a much more localized provincial version of the 1988 presidential debate. Reagan and Mondale, or they're going at him for his age. And Reagan made it a joke.