Western Standard - The Pipeline： The UCP won. Now what？

00:00:00.000 Good evening, I'm Derek Fildebrandt, publisher of the Western Standard, and you're watching

00:00:16.980 The Pipeline. Today is May 31st, 2023, E-Day, minus two. It's been two days since the big

00:00:24.200 election. The UCP has won. But now what? We're going to be talking about the new shape of

00:00:30.720 Alberta's political map. The UCP might have painted it still mostly blue. There's a lot more

00:00:35.540 orange on it. And we're going to talk about the changing political geography and demography

00:00:39.280 of Alberta's political map now. We're going to talk about what kind of premier we can expect

00:00:44.820 Smith to be now because we've seen different kinds of Smith. We've seen Radio Show Smith.

00:00:49.500 We saw Wild Rose Smith, Radio Show Smith, used to be Leadership Smith, Election Smith, and then Election Night Smith.

00:00:56.580 We want to, we're going to predict what Smith we're likely to see over the next four years.

00:01:02.900 And we're also going to talk, though, about the future of the NDP and Rachel Notley herself.

00:01:07.780 The NDP set a record number of votes for that party in this province, even though they did not manage to form a government.

00:01:14.180 We're going to talk about the future has in store for them.

00:01:16.020 But before we do that, we got to thank, as usual, my favorite sponsor, the Canadian Shooting Sports Association.

00:01:22.000 I've been a member of the CSSA for over a decade because I trust them to defend my rights as a firearms owner in Canada.

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00:01:51.080 It is critical that gun owners stand together and join together in a group like the Canadian Shooting Sports Association.

00:01:57.120 Okay, so we're going to get into it.

00:02:00.380 The UCP had a pretty good night.

00:02:04.780 They formed a majority government.

00:02:06.440 They've got a reasonably comfortable margin of seats, but they did lose a substantial number, Dave.

00:02:14.660 They did.

00:02:15.320 Hi, I'm Dave Naylor, news editor of the Western Standard.

00:02:19.040 I'm joined here by our senior columnist, Corey Morgan.

00:02:21.580 I'm going to introduce you.

00:02:22.060 Just in case you were wondering.

00:02:23.600 I'll introduce these two hosers at the end of the show. 1.00

00:02:25.920 There you go.

00:02:26.780 I'm sorry, what was the question again?

00:02:28.820 UCP won.

00:02:29.720 They've still got a fairly comfortable margin, but they lost a fair number of seats.

00:02:34.620 Maybe kind of set the lay of the line to just go where those losses were, where the NDP picked up.

00:02:38.540 Well, the NDP picked up mainly in Calgary, Derek, turning basically the city into half UCP, half NDP, cut in line by the river.

00:02:48.860 If you're north of the river, you're NDP.

00:02:50.560 If you're south, you're UCP for the most part.

00:02:54.540 The UCP won all the rurals.

00:02:57.100 So you basically got rurals versus two cities.

00:02:59.800 It's Edmonton and Calgary versus the rurals.

00:03:02.240 So, yeah, and Premier Smith has no Edmonton representation whatsoever.

00:03:10.220 We had a story yesterday that she's going to form a Council of the Defeated. 0.81

00:03:16.020 I assume she's going to take Edmonton candidates like Casey Maddow, the former Premier and some other well-thought-of candidates.

00:03:26.700 And they will become her Edmonton advisors.

00:03:29.120 So, yeah, it's going to be some interesting times.

00:03:32.240 Corey, the NDP path to victory was always very narrow because they're just such an almost purely urban party.

00:03:43.120 They picked up Casey Maddew's seat, the one UCP seat in Edmonton.

00:03:48.160 He's gone.

00:03:49.280 There's one.

00:03:49.720 So now they're back, like in 2015, to taking every seat in Edmonton.

00:03:54.120 And then they picked up a de facto Edmonton seat, Sherwood Park.

00:03:59.920 But they failed to pick up Strathcona-Sherwood Park.

00:04:03.300 Big path to their victory.

00:04:05.480 Needed to be winning the donut around Edmonton, which they won in 2015.

00:04:11.260 But still totally, totally locked out of even ex-urban Edmonton there.

00:04:19.220 Just not picking up anything.

00:04:21.220 The only seat, when you look at the grand map of Alberta, you can't see any orange at all.

00:04:27.080 It doesn't look like the NDP won a single seat, because they're all urban, with one lone exception, where you hang your hat in Banff, Kananaskis.

00:04:36.280 Shame, shame.

00:04:37.200 Shame on you, Corey.

00:04:38.220 I did my part.

00:04:39.200 There's only so many times they let me in.

00:04:41.420 They only let you vote a few times.

00:04:42.680 Yeah.

00:04:44.440 But the NDP's path to victory was just like, they had to sweep Calgary.

00:04:50.520 And they did win just a bare majority, actually, of Calgary seats.

00:04:55.620 I think like 24 or 26, something like that.

00:05:02.620 But I don't know, do you think this kind of permanently upends what we think of Calgary?

00:05:07.620 Because the only time the NDP has won a lot in Calgary before was 2015 when they could rely on so-called vote splits between Wildrose and progressive conservatives.

00:05:15.620 They brought the Alberta party vote behind them.

00:05:18.620 But what do you think this is telling us about the political geography of Alberta now?

00:05:22.620 now. I don't think it's changed as much as some might think. As you kind of mentioned, the Alberta

00:05:27.240 Party and the Liberals, they were always there and they were always kind of cutting things up

00:05:31.340 and they were not a factor this time. I think some people brought up that that was traditionally

00:05:35.760 like 170,000 votes. That's more than enough to change a whole lot of the outcomes and races

00:05:41.320 across this province. So as you said, this is a high watermark. And yes, it was dearly close,

00:05:47.620 a number of those ridings on both sides. I mean, some people said, oh, well, if the NDP just had

00:05:52.320 an extra few thousand votes, it would have changed the whole thing. That's true. But if the UCP just

00:05:56.060 had a few thousand votes and a few, they would have eight more as well. But it was very, very

00:06:00.340 close. But how are they going to capture more? I mean, there's a chance of the, as there's already

00:06:06.660 people hoping that the Smith government will implode somehow in the next four years. But I

00:06:10.820 don't see- They are conservatives. They are likely to implode over four years. They like doing that.

00:06:14.020 Yeah. So, but there's not much else more they can grab. I mean, the popular vote was still over 50%

00:06:19.920 for the UCP. There was no other factor splitting the NDP vote. They had as good a leader as they've

00:06:26.140 ever had and probably ever will, at least for the foreseeable future. I don't see how they can climb

00:06:31.040 much higher after this. Plus, the unknown factor of Smith will be gone by the time the next election,

00:06:35.760 whatever it might be. It could be that they know they don't want her. Or if she's just stable,

00:06:40.600 for four years, she'll recapture a lot of Calgary.

00:06:42.720 Dave, Calgary is, I was saying, it's split just pretty much 50-50 at this point.

00:06:54.480 Now, that's, again, not quite as much as the NDP had in 2015 when they won, but the NDP won a higher share of the vote than they did, actually, in 2015.

00:07:04.840 and the UCP, between the combined Wildrose and PC and the UCP in 2019, and the UCP this time,

00:07:12.760 it's actually been pretty steady. I guess, we're going to actually, if we have time, we actually

00:07:19.340 want to get into smaller parties later, but I guess the big thing is now, it's such a strict

00:07:23.280 two-party system. Smith got a higher percentage of the vote here than possibly even Klein ever got.

00:07:29.240 She did, yes. But Klein. And Law. And Law, yeah. The difference, and Law, he'd had one election

00:07:34.340 where he won literally almost every single seat.

00:07:37.060 The difference is you would always have a divided opposition splitting up that vote.

00:07:41.920 Now it's just, it's your blue team or your orange team, and that's it.

00:07:49.000 Do you think this will perhaps change just how Calgary views itself as this conservative bastion now?

00:07:54.280 Well, I think that view is long gone.

00:07:57.420 I think we had the 28-year reign of his purpleness, and he was certainly left-wing.

00:08:04.020 We've got Jody Gondek, climate crusader, to the tune of 60-plus billion dollars.

00:08:10.900 So I think the stigma that Calgary is a conservative town, I don't think is there anymore.

00:08:19.340 But Calgary's not always elected, normally moderate lefty, not normally like Jody Gondek left, but Calgary's often had left.

00:08:26.120 And the kind of thinking was, well, if they had party labels next to them, the lefties would never win at the mayor's chair.

00:08:31.340 Sure. Now we're seeing, you know, the NDP and UCP, when their party brands are on the table, pretty evenly matched encounter.

00:08:39.700 Yeah. That's a new thing.

00:08:41.480 If the hopefully the diversification of the UCP and the bringing in of businesses by the, you know, hopefully by the billions,

00:08:48.940 they'll be bringing in oil workers and high tech workers who are not likely to be NDP supporters, but more supporters of the UCP.

00:08:57.120 So, you know, and just the social problems that, you know, Corey has detailed in Nazium and Calgary, I think that they're only going to get worse at the moment.

00:09:09.440 And I think that's going to take a lot of the NDP sting away because people are just going to get fed up of it.

00:09:15.560 So I'm going to come back more to geography again, but maybe the higher level again.

00:09:20.220 You heard, you know, a lot of the legacy media, they were saying, oh, the UCP is not going to be able to be very representative because, well, they don't have all the seats in Calgary.

00:09:31.200 They've got like 12, like 12-ish, maybe up to 14, depending on recounts.

00:09:35.840 But let's say 12 seats in Calgary, half the seats.

00:09:39.100 And but otherwise, they're all rural.

00:09:43.120 Although UCP does have the entire donut around Calgary.

00:09:45.800 So like Strathcona Sherwood Park, what's his name? It's not Jordan Walker, is that? Well, anyway, the UCP guy representing Strathcona Sherwood Park, that guy's going to be in cabinet because it's a de facto Edmonton seat.

00:10:00.960 But they were saying that the UCP is such a rural party. It's got just one leg of the stool, but it's still, despite losing a bunch of seats, it still seems to me to be still much more geographically and demographically diverse than the NDP is.

00:10:15.800 The NDP is purely urban. It is Edmonton. It is generally inner and Northeast Calgary. And I guess the weird asterisk writing that we, where you are from, Banff, Cananaskis, where you've got, you know, kind of the Banff, Canmore kind of culture in it.

00:10:36.000 The NDP just seems so locked geographically, demographically, because it just has no appeal outside the two cities.

00:10:45.200 No, and that's, again, where I feel a little more, as you said,

00:10:48.020 the high watermark has been sort of hit.

00:10:49.920 I mean, they could potentially gain more ground in Calgary,

00:10:52.480 but Calgary has room to move.

00:10:53.900 The UCP can capture more of Calgary.

00:10:57.100 They've got room to expand, and maybe they could eke out another couple seats

00:11:00.240 at Edmonton down the road.

00:11:01.040 But the day that the NDP wins something like, you know,

00:11:04.440 Olds Didsbury or Grand Prairie or Highwood is not going to be coming anytime soon.

00:11:10.060 Yeah, so for the NDP to win, like the NDP didn't come, I'll have to dig in the numbers a little bit more, but other than Banff Kananaskis, which the NDP ever so barely, barely won, and it is only technically a rural riding.

00:11:26.100 It's largely kind of a weird urban, ex-urban riding.

00:11:30.440 But they didn't, I have to dig in the numbers, but unless I'm mistaken, I don't think they came close anywhere in Alberta, other Banff, Kananaskis, outside of the two big cities.

00:11:40.320 They just, they weren't even competitive, whereas the UCP was in a few Edmonton ridings.

00:11:47.560 I mean, you could see them one day, maybe winning some Edmonton ridings, and a ton of Calgary ridings that the UCP were competitive in.

00:11:55.540 Whereas the NDP Dave is just utterly not in the universe of most seats outside of Calgary and Edmonton. And I just don't see how they're going to have ever a reasonable path to victory unless they can become competitive outside the two big cities.

00:12:11.120 No, and it shows you how hated their farm bill was, Bill 6, I think it was.

00:12:16.660 It's not just that.

00:12:17.220 You've got, like, Red Deer.

00:12:18.320 People in Red Deer, in Medicine Hat, in Grand Prairie, they're not mostly farmers, but they're a small urban.

00:12:24.780 And the NDP are just not resonating there.

00:12:26.740 No, they're not.

00:12:27.600 And how do they change their message without abandoning, you know, what they are as a party?

00:12:33.040 You know, where their history is being.

00:12:35.660 And, you know, I'm sure we're going to get to Miss Notley later on, but the only way they're going to change that is to attract a candidate, a leadership candidate that can be sold in those places.

00:12:49.260 But as of right now, there's no way they're winning in rural Alberta.

00:12:53.340 Well, I think you alluded quite correctly that I was maybe getting a little ahead of ourselves to talking about the future of the NDP and Notley, but I think there's a lot more we can cover there in a bit.

00:13:02.260 But let's talk about Smith for now.

00:13:03.660 So we've seen different kinds of Smith. I mean, there was, you know, the policy wonk Smith before she entered politics at all. And there was kind of a charming populist right wing rural Smith you saw when she was wild rose leader.

00:13:21.280 You know, then there was radio show Smith, real gadfly, controversial, likes to stir the pod, have a conversation.

00:13:30.280 And then UCP leadership candidate Smith, who was populist crusader, you know, pretty much dressed with a Viking helmet there to storm the gates.

00:13:41.100 And then UCP premier, an election smith, which was trying to calm the waters and make sure everyone knows that she's not nuts. 1.00

00:13:51.080 But election night, she kind of re-hinted about, remember, guys, we're taking on Ottawa, we're doing this stuff.

00:13:57.540 In an interview she's given since, she has even hinted pretty strongly that if Ottawa tries to cap emissions,

00:14:04.400 that would be a de facto production cap on oil and gas in Alberta, she'd consider using the Sovereignty Act, the big nuke.

00:14:10.860 And we didn't hear too much about that during the election.

00:14:14.840 Corey, which Danielle Smith do you think is going to show up over the next few years?

00:14:18.740 I think she can only suppress the ideological Danielle Smith for so long. 1.00

00:14:22.680 I'm not so worried about that, too, because I do believe a lot of her policies, if implemented properly, will show benefit if she brings them in.

00:14:28.920 I mean, the health care savings account could be very interesting and beneficial.

00:14:34.400 Some of the treatment-based things for addicts, I mean, if those start showing results, it's going to look good for her.

00:14:40.440 Fighting against Ottawa is always a win, even if you lose the battle.

00:14:44.160 Just kind of wonder, my bigger concern is how well the manager, Daniel Smith, is of the caucus of the others.

00:14:51.560 Having, you know, worked with her to a degree with the Wild Rose when she was leading that and I was in the executive.

00:14:56.840 I would hope in her time out from politics, she's humbled a bit and realized that, again, if you lose the support below you, it doesn't matter what you're doing.

00:15:06.620 You could really, conservatives learn that all the time.

00:15:09.580 You can lose it all.

00:15:10.440 So I'd be watching much more closely with how our internal management is going on than her policy right now.

00:15:15.620 Dave, I'm going to put the same question to you.

00:15:18.380 I think Daniel Smith has generally always been herself, but she'll lean into different aspects of herself.

00:15:25.060 And, you know, the, you know, where the NDP was trying to shape the ballot question to be Daniel Smith can't be trusted. 0.98

00:15:31.240 She's crazy. 0.60

00:15:32.160 So obviously she leans strongly against that kind of counter-talking it, trying to demonstrate she's reasonable and clear-headed. 0.55

00:15:40.440 But do you think she's going to continue more in that personality of just like, don't really do much over four years, just try not to rock the boat and be kind of quiet?

00:15:49.600 Or do you think, do you think she'll be kind of one of those genuinely transformative premiers that, you know, you are likely to see an Alberta police force, an Alberta pension plan, an Alberta revenue agency, potential use of invocation of the, of the sovereignty act?

00:16:08.640 I don't think it's in her nature to be quiet and just ride out four years.

00:16:13.700 I think Jen Gerson said it best in her column this morning.

00:16:17.000 She's either going to last 18 months or she'll be going to last eight years. 0.86

00:16:21.480 She's got a couple of big decisions ahead of her, including a cabinet she's lost.

00:16:25.740 She needs to find a health minister because that'll be probably her most important nomination. 1.00

00:16:31.060 She needs to find a finance minister with the retirement of Travis Taves.

00:16:35.540 But I think if she's the premier that she says she wants to be for all Albertans and has listened to people and will listen to the people, I think you may see the provincial police force fall away because I don't think the majority of Albertans want that.

00:16:53.900 Our own tax agency, maybe, sure.

00:16:57.520 And certainly the fight against Ottawa and Trudeau, definitely.

00:17:01.380 And she said she's girding for that fight already.

00:17:03.880 as you said Derek in her acceptance speech so it's all to be determined but you know hopefully

00:17:11.200 we've got you know her not going off the reservation by herself but listening to

00:17:16.840 everybody around her and surrounding herself with smart people which I don't think the last

00:17:22.200 premier probably did to his best abilities um the we talked about this a fair bit on election night

00:17:31.480 the the longevity of Alberta conservative Premiers is not very long the last time an

00:17:40.720 Alberta conservative premier in Alberta finished a single term I was in high school was Ralph Klein

00:17:46.720 2004 and the last time an Alberta premier retired without being pushed out by the electorate or

00:17:51.460 their party was one year I was born 1985 when Peter Lockheed retired there's nothing like this

00:17:58.960 anywhere else in Canada. Being the Alberta Conservative leader is a death wish. It's a political death wish. It might be a cool job, but it is not there for the long term generally. Eventually, I believe at some point in our history in my lifetime, at least there will be an Alberta Conservative Premier who completes a four year term. It will happen before I die, I'm sure.

00:18:23.960 And I know it's an impossible prediction right now, so I'm not going to ask you to predict because events come. But maybe we'll start with you, Corey. What do you think the really big, let's say two things Daniel Smith needs to do to make it to the next election and be the first Alberta conservative since 2004 to actually complete a term and make it to at least an opportunity to get reelected?

00:18:49.960 And number one is listen to and genuinely respect her caucus.

00:18:55.060 And, you know, it was something she said on her show many a time, actually.

00:18:57.760 She said one of the things she learned, if you've lost your caucus, you're done.

00:19:00.920 That's what she felt happened with the Wildrose, even in opposition.

00:19:03.920 That seems to have been driven home.

00:19:05.280 She doesn't even start with a ton of caucus support.

00:19:07.140 There's a lot of elements in that caucus that never really were her biggest fan.

00:19:11.280 Potentially, but now they've just come through a tight election.

00:19:13.780 I mean, they shouldn't be too motivated to be trying to rip things down early, that there's not, you know.

00:19:18.940 Well, you haven't been talking to some of these guys.

00:19:21.420 Oh, yeah, there's some discontented.

00:19:23.920 Some of them will be trying.

00:19:25.920 And I would just hope she can keep them contained because she has to.

00:19:29.900 So what's number two?

00:19:31.520 Number two is making sure something doesn't fire up in her right flank. 1.00

00:19:34.680 Right now, the alternative parties, there's nothing to speak of going on over there.

00:19:39.080 But that's part of what really was the hindrance for Stelmack, the hindrance for Prentice,

00:19:43.260 the hindrance for Redford was this growing wild rose going on over there

00:19:47.760 that was taking an element of them and a bite out of their policies and giving a home to the

00:19:51.900 discontented to go towards. If they got nowhere to go, they'll grumble and stay in caucus. But

00:19:56.640 so she's got to make sure a fire doesn't light outside of her own party as well. So she's gonna

00:20:01.640 have to juggle those two things. And she can maintain I think for four years. Like Ralph Klein 0.96

00:20:06.820 was always very cautious, you know, you can't govern on the fringes. But whenever he saw any

00:20:13.320 significant stirring on his right flank. He'd turn like the guns of the Missouri, just

00:20:20.060 and he'd point some guns and blast it. He would do something to bring those people decisively back

00:20:26.260 in, mostly successfully. Paul Hinman was actually first elected as Alberta Alliance in 2004,

00:20:33.260 Klein's last election, but he was always careful to try and bring those guys back in,

00:20:37.920 whereas I think his successors generally just ignored, took it for granted that there's not

00:20:42.340 allowed to be anything in my right flank. We're the conservatives for God's sakes. And obviously,

00:20:46.500 that was not a very good long term strategy. Dave, same question to you. What are the two big things

00:20:52.780 Daniel Smith needs to do to have the best possible chance of being the first conservative premier

00:20:59.020 since Ralph Klein to actually make it to an attempt to get reelected? Of course, hit the nail

00:21:05.680 on the head. It's all about caucus control. And I think if she can play the Trudeau card properly

00:21:12.960 and fight that battle correctly, then I think that eliminates the parties on the right, like

00:21:18.620 the independence parties and whatnot. And those voters will stay with them. And if she can keep

00:21:25.480 caucus under control, then in terms of issues, it's economy and health. If she runs those two 1.00

00:21:32.460 files, well, she can be premier as long as she wants. Because I think we've seen all the NDP

00:21:38.460 can throw at her. There's not going to be secret, more secret recordings of her talking about

00:21:43.400 selling off hospitals or... Oh, you haven't seen what I got. Yeah, we haven't even opened up our

00:21:48.540 closet yet. But, you know, the UCP did their best. Sorry, the NDP did their best to discredit her,

00:21:54.340 and they lost. And I kind of agree with what Corey was saying. Even though there may be some

00:22:00.340 UCP caucus members who aren't her fans, I don't think right now there's an appetite for another

00:22:05.300 election. Well, no, no, no. There's election or leadership or leadership. You know what? If you

00:22:14.240 push it too many times, I know we've talked about it in the past. You almost look like an Italian 1.00

00:22:19.560 government, you know, changing the head every two or three years. But we do do that. I know. We've

00:22:24.480 been doing that since 2004. And to be honest, I think voters get sick of it. They want to see

00:22:31.080 some stability. But in every one of those elections since 2004, except for 2015, they have

00:22:36.640 elected conservatives. And some have argued, actually, that was the great trick to conservative

00:22:40.980 longevity. Premier gets unpopular, kill the premier, bring in someone else, call an election,

00:22:47.460 everyone votes for the new guy, the new guy gets unpopular, kill that guy and rinse and repeat. 0.76

00:22:51.900 Yeah, but it's not the population that's killing the guy. It's the small percentage of party members.

00:22:57.280 But generally the leaders they take down are unpopular, both with the party and importantly with the general population when they do it.

00:23:04.020 So I think that's another one of the things that for a caucus to turn on a leader, they're unlikely to do it, I think, while the party's high in the polls.

00:23:14.560 Am I going to keep my seat? Yeah, okay, well, probably continue along. Although a lot of, there's a lot of ego stuff like, am I in cabinet? If you're in cabinet, you probably want to support the current leadership. If not, well, maybe you want a new leader who appreciates how truly talented you are and why you should be in cabinet.

00:23:31.860 But unpopular premiers are more likely to get taken down. But remember with Kenny, Kenny never lost caucus. He lost some of caucus and increasingly lost a fair chunk of it, but he never lost an outright majority of caucus.

00:23:47.060 Caucus didn't host him. It was the grassroots of the party and new members who signed up who were white hot angry at him that took him down in contrast to Stelmack.

00:23:59.200 That was caucus. Redford, caucus. Prentice was, well, himself in the election.

00:24:06.200 Kenny was not caucus. That was an insurgency of the grassroots was very different. And those two things often have very different interests. The grassroots tend to be more ideological, more passionate, whereas caucus, I mean, this might not sound nice, but it's more concerned about self-preservation and getting re-elected or getting into cabinet.

00:24:28.000 well keep in mind you had those what 21 22 mps that wrote that letter uh complaining about the

00:24:34.720 the lockdown you had very very close caucus votes and then they were talking about expelling todd

00:24:40.240 lowen uh it was more unanimous uh with drew barnes but but it was close with tom on so he

00:24:47.360 he surely did not have the backing of all or the full amount of his caucus you know he maybe had

00:24:53.280 50 to 55, 60% who would support him, you know, and who knows what happens when you don't have

00:25:00.000 to identify yourself in a vote where you're going to go. Okay, well, let's, let's talk about the

00:25:05.680 future of the NDP and Rachel Notley. Maybe those things are going to continue to be the same thing,

00:25:11.360 maybe not. So Monday night, Rachel Notley said that she is staying on as opposition leader.

00:25:18.240 Now, she did not say, and I'm going to be here fighting in four years, and that's actually, I think, fair.

00:25:24.540 She does not need to decide that night rashly, I'm resigning immediately, or I'm going to be running for premier for like a fourth time in four years.

00:25:35.260 I think it's fine.

00:25:36.940 She's, you know, Alberta conservatives, if they lose, they have to resign that night. 1.00

00:25:41.900 That's over.

00:25:42.860 They don't have to go full prentice and like refuse to even take their seat in the legislature.

00:25:46.760 That was maybe a bit extreme, but NDP leaders I think are granted a bit more, a bit more leeway on that kind of thing.

00:25:55.780 She, I think it's a complicated question about if she should stay or not.

00:26:00.660 I think she's around 60 years old or so.

00:26:03.620 It's 60, at least she's born to 63.

00:26:05.440 Yeah, so she's around 60 years old, not a spring chicken, but also there's many politicians who are significantly older. 0.92

00:26:11.640 So, you know, she's still got time if she wants to.

00:26:15.400 but she was first elected in 2008 and served in the two-member NDP caucus, then 2012 served in the

00:26:23.480 four-member NDP caucus, and then 2015 was her high water mark as premier, but then since then,

00:26:29.240 but she's now run for premier three times already as leader. 2015 where she won, 2019 where she lost,

00:26:35.240 2023 where she's lost. I guess two-part question, maybe you'll answer the same for both, maybe

00:26:41.880 differently. I'll start with you, Corey. Your best bet, will Rachel Notley make a fourth attempt

00:26:50.360 for the Premier's chair? And should she? If you are her in the NDP?

00:26:55.760 Yeah, this is a guess on my part, of course. I don't think she's going to.

00:27:01.560 She's doing it in a controlled way. She cares for the party. I mean, you don't have to step down

00:27:05.400 that night. You can go six months, maybe a year even just say, okay, it's time and we can have a

00:27:09.640 race and rejuvenate and do it in a calm and not as fractious manner as a sudden race.

00:27:14.940 Because she's got to be getting a bit tired. I mean, you know, she's looking tired. She's put a 0.65

00:27:18.380 lot in and there's nothing more she could throw at the next race. If she could think of something, 0.97

00:27:23.560 perhaps, I don't think she wants to run for opposition leader again. She only wants to

00:27:27.420 run for premier again. So what could she do that would be different, even if it's a different UCP

00:27:32.580 leader in four years that might get her over that line? And there's not really anything outstanding.

00:27:37.940 We sort of covered that earlier. Likewise, you know, should she stay in? I think for her own

00:27:43.100 sake and for the NDP's sake, I think not. Some people keep saying, well, who else is there?

00:27:47.540 Well, there's names out there and there's people, but the opening has to come and they will surface

00:27:52.400 whether, I mean, it was a long shot speculation, but I don't say it's impossible for Nancy to

00:27:57.220 throw his hat in looking at something like that. Or you might have Shannon Phillips or Janice Irwin

00:28:03.020 going, well, a race with those three would show. Do you want a campaign to be opposition or do

00:28:07.080 want to campaign to become government it would be a potentially rejuvenating effort on the part of

00:28:11.480 the party to figure out really what their path is and what they're going to go with uh again i'm

00:28:16.600 asking you both sometimes a lot of the same questions today because there's a lot of perspectives

00:28:19.960 on it uh if you are rachel notley do you think what are the chances you know should you run and

00:28:28.040 will you run should she run no will she run no uh i think as you said derek uh i think she was

00:28:36.120 She was probably a little bit shocked, a little bit upset on Monday night, didn't want to say anything rash, even though I thought she might. She's going to take her time and make the best decision for her personally. You know, she did exhaust herself in the campaign. She did everything she could. She had no more left to give at the end of the day.

00:28:59.240 So she'll, you know, the only way I see her to stay is if the party begs her and says, look, we need you.

00:29:06.960 We got nobody else, which I don't think is true.

00:29:10.000 So I think after the cold light of day, she will resign.

00:29:14.600 There'll be the leadership convention.

00:29:16.840 Will it be a coronation of Nenshi?

00:29:18.880 Will it be Janice Irwin?

00:29:20.640 Will it be somebody that we're going to talk about replacements soon?

00:29:23.020 We haven't thought of yet.

00:29:24.400 So I think she's going to go.

00:29:27.160 I think it's most likely.

00:29:28.600 But, I mean, it's also probably the best job she's ever had, short of being premier, I guess, and very possibly the best job she will ever have.

00:29:38.600 But it's hard to, I mean, it's not like the Senate where you've got to really mail it in.

00:29:41.920 But opposition leader, you could mail it in, but that means if she's going to mail in, you know, if she's just going to kind of take it easy, it means they'll probably lose seats next time.

00:29:50.360 They definitely will not form government.

00:29:53.300 But, you know, this is Alberta.

00:29:54.600 New Democrat leaders are not expected to win 100% of the time as a matter of course.

00:30:01.500 They're granted some leeway, but, you know, 2015, they tasted power, and they liked the taste, as most do.

00:30:10.380 So what is the, let's talk about, you know, actually, you know, we're going to talk about this,

00:30:17.580 and then we're going to talk about individual replacements, because these two, I think, are related.

00:30:21.640 The NDP in most provinces and federally, kind of use itself as a conscious of Parliament, they're not supposed to win, but they're supposed to be there and be the really good guys and normally kind of force the other parties, namely the liberals to implement their great, more aggressively left leaning policies.

00:30:42.640 There's exceptions in BC, they compete to win in Manitoba, they compete to win in Saskatchewan.

00:30:51.640 they kind of think they compete to win and maybe they will again one day but generally the ndp is

00:30:56.680 the third party and it's there to be the conscious um do you think do you think the ndp is going to

00:31:04.280 look at this and think god you know we got more votes than the time we won in 2015 and we still

00:31:11.480 lost and frankly if you look at the math of it even if we got as many votes as the ucp we probably

00:31:17.640 still would have narrowly lost Alberta and they just hate us so badly outside the two big cities and in southern Calgary. If you're the MVP Corey you look at this do you say why should we bother trying to water ourselves down why we just be ourselves except we're not going to be in government and maybe we'll have a few less seats but we can still have a big opposition caucus and really just be ourselves and true to our principles or do you think they look at this and say so close.

00:31:47.640 we can do it. We've just got to get the right leader who is perceived as more Calgary friendly,

00:31:55.380 maybe more rural friendly, more moderate than Rachel Notley. Which lesson do you think they're

00:32:00.140 going to draw from this? Because they could draw either from it. Well, I think all of them are

00:32:03.740 having to make that personal decision. I think that the political thinkers among the member wise

00:32:08.300 all the way up to the caucus members know that that's the choice they're sitting in. Now they've

00:32:12.340 maxed out in their current incarnation. So if they want to go for the big ring, they got to change

00:32:16.400 something. Well, actually, I'm going to interrupt. I'm sorry. I didn't mean to. I don't mean to interrupt, but there's maybe a third one. And sometimes conservatives often draw this, which is we lost because we were too moderate. We didn't inspire people to vote enough. The conservatives made that choice when they elected Danielle Smith. They went to the right of Jason Kenney and said, like, we're losing because Jason Kenney is this mushy and we're losing people to the right. Now, the NDP does not face anything on their left. But I suppose the third lesson they could draw is we were

00:32:46.380 too milquetoast, we were too moderate. And we need to be more, more lefty, more progressive,

00:32:52.120 because that'll inspire people in bigger numbers. And that'll put us over the top.

00:32:55.940 So we won't put you over the top in rural areas.

00:32:58.740 I agree. What did Calgary made?

00:33:00.220 Well, I don't know about Calgary. I mean, I think if any of their policy,

00:33:02.920 when they finally went to policy, put something out, it was the corporate tax hike. And that

00:33:06.380 fizzled. I mean, that did not resonate with people. And that's getting a little closer to

00:33:10.560 their true roots on what the sort of thing they would go for as a ideologically more pure NDP.

00:33:16.380 And that's where I think the big test for them to find out what they want to be would have the best route would be a leadership race where they can have two competing visions and their own members could choose that between a Todd Hirsch or a Nenshi or a Janice or, you know, or a Shannon Phillips.

00:33:31.320 And then they really will get a measure of their own party to say, look, guys, do we want to moderate?

00:33:36.160 Do we want to embrace some of the things we move forward?

00:33:38.280 Or can we sleep better at night just by accepting we're going to be opposition,

00:33:41.040 but we're going to be a principled one that sticks to their core values and really hammers it to them.

00:33:46.560 But nothing less, I think, than a leadership race would really help them all examine and choose on something like that.

00:33:50.680 So you forced me to kind of put that follow-up question to Dave rather than ask him the same question again.

00:33:56.200 But it's very much related, and you can take it that way, Dave.

00:34:00.800 So the leadership race is ultimately going to determine which lessons I think the NDP learn from this.

00:34:08.000 I think, you know, they could say Nenshi or Hirsch will be viewed as Calgary-friendly, moderate relative to NDP.

00:34:17.400 I mean, those guys are on the left, but, I mean, they're not wearing Che Guevara watches.

00:34:22.540 You know, they're a different kind of left.

00:34:24.360 They're not Loyola.

00:34:24.800 Yeah, yeah.

00:34:25.840 They're a different kind of beast.

00:34:27.380 They're seen as not explicitly anti-business. They've had real jobs kind of thing. Or you have, you know, Shannon Phillips, maybe Sarah Hoffman, Janice Irwin, where they're going to go, and some of them are maybe more radical than others there.

00:34:46.080 but they're going to say, they would probably not say, well, we're never going to win again,

00:34:51.460 so we may as well just be ourselves. They'll never say that out loud. Some of them might

00:34:55.220 think that, but others might say, as I was saying earlier, we didn't win because we weren't hard

00:34:59.760 enough. That didn't inspire people. We were just too boring. Because conservatives sometimes draw

00:35:05.240 that lesson, and sometimes that lesson leads to them winning, and sometimes it leads to them

00:35:09.160 losing. You know, it's kind of dealer's choice. But who do you think the big likely contenders are

00:35:17.140 to replace Rachel Notley? And what do you think each of them? What were the chances you think

00:35:23.640 of them winning? I don't know. We're really kind of handicapping a race that hasn't even

00:35:26.200 theoretically begun. But I will disagree with one thing you said, where they've got no chance

00:35:31.460 of increasing in the next election. I think they do. I think they do. I think they do. But it's

00:35:37.140 all part of regeneration. You have to come up with a new leader. You have to come up with a

00:35:42.880 new leader who, as you just said, can hold Edmonton while just increasing a few seats in

00:35:48.660 Calgary and maybe a rural one. So is that Nahed Nenshi? A lot of people in Calgary don't like

00:35:55.460 the legacy that he's left. A lot of people still do like him. I think Calgary is a strange city in

00:36:02.160 that, that they're more progressive, but they draw the line at maybe drag queen story time for

00:36:09.060 children. You know, that that's a line that most Calgarians probably don't want to cross,

00:36:15.160 but Janice Irwin would be, you know, one every afternoon in every school. So she would offer 0.88

00:36:21.080 the stark, the stark NDP platform, but one that would never get elected. So while she may run

00:36:29.780 and become leader of the party, if they do, then I think that kills any chance of them becoming...

00:36:35.620 They're going back down to the inner core downtowns of the two states.

00:36:38.220 Exactly, exactly.

00:36:39.460 I wouldn't say there wasn't a chance of them winning at all.

00:36:42.160 It's just if they stay the same as they are.

00:36:43.840 Yeah, oh, exactly.

00:36:44.640 But with some regeneration, a new popular leader that can take on, Premier Smith,

00:36:52.440 assuming she hasn't imploded, then, yeah, I mean, the chances are there.

00:36:57.060 But as with the UCP, they have to be very, very careful with who they select as a leader.

00:37:03.820 Make sure they've got the right one that can appeal to those Tory voters, conservative voters.

00:37:10.260 So, Majo, I can add whatever I want to it, and I'm adding a section that I think we need to talk a little bit about.

00:37:17.260 Let's give a little bit of time to the small parties.

00:37:20.560 Let's give them some honorable mention.

00:37:22.040 In the 2015, 2012, the Liberals collapsed from being a significant opposition party and the official opposition to a tiny opposition party with like 10% of the vote and just five seats in the legislature.

00:37:36.220 That was when Wild Rose took over as a fairly sizable official opposition.

00:37:40.180 um then 2015 when the uh yeah it's 2012 2015 the time the ndp won the liberals were reduced to like

00:37:49.460 two percent of the vote and one seat david swan an incumbent uh and the ndp swallowed almost all

00:37:55.700 the liberal vote up by 2019 the liberals were well and truly gone zero seats probably less than one

00:38:02.820 percent of the vote roughly they digested them but the alberta party in 2019 had between eight

00:38:08.820 10 percent of the vote nothing that's nothing uh nothing to sneeze at this time though the alberta

00:38:15.220 party vanished vaporized in fact by number of votes the third party in alberta is the greens

00:38:23.860 0.8 point eight percent and that was the third party not even a percentage and the alberta party

00:38:29.780 0.7 yeah um so i guess i don't even really want to spend time on the greens let's talk about the

00:38:37.380 the Alberta Party for the last time. The media are obsessed with the Alberta Party because they

00:38:41.980 just love it. It's this cute little thing, and it deserves to do so well. It's finally dead.

00:38:48.920 Corey, give us the epitaph of the Alberta Party for right now.

00:38:55.340 Well, finally, the feel-good, we stand for everything and we stand for nothing party has

00:39:00.580 gone to the political dumpster where it belongs. As you said, the media kept pumping their tires as

00:39:05.420 if they were a force and it would annoy me to no end at every election. And I understand up and

00:39:11.360 coming new parties. I've taken part in them and they've gotten somewhere. They'd only stand for

00:39:15.300 something. We'd be the official opposition and we couldn't get five minutes of air time on some

00:39:19.460 stations and the Alberta party leader would be there for five minutes and polling at 2%.

00:39:24.080 So the reality has come home. Now, I don't know if they're gone for good. A registered entity,

00:39:28.760 The right person can pick it up, perhaps, and turn it to something.

00:39:31.920 But the conventional media finally recognized that they're no more popular than Pawlowski's little fringe party off to the side there.

00:39:43.080 Oh, you had to go there.

00:39:44.200 I had to go there.

00:39:45.820 Sorry, I know what you're going to say, so go ahead.

00:39:47.560 We're going to go there.

00:39:48.380 So I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but I kind of looked through this.

00:39:52.420 Pulaski ran in Congreelbo, I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think he got like 160-odd votes.

00:39:59.580 167, I believe.

00:40:00.440 Yeah, something around there.

00:40:01.240 Enough to knock off a cabinet minister. 0.79

00:40:04.160 Yeah, but that didn't even make a difference in Elbo.

00:40:06.520 No, I'm sorry, I'm thinking of Acadia.

00:40:07.760 In Acadia, yeah.

00:40:09.320 But Pulaski's party across all of Alberta, and they ran quite a few candidates, but it was like, was it 3,000 votes across like?

00:40:16.980 4,600.

00:40:18.540 4,600 across all of Alberta.

00:40:20.640 But after his performance at the legislature the other day, which should be must-watch TV for.

00:40:26.800 Oh, God, it was good.

00:40:27.780 But he is going to single-handedly bring down Danielle Smith.

00:40:31.740 He has taken down the government.

00:40:33.660 He is going to cost them this election.

00:40:36.600 At best, it seems, you can make the case that maybe they cost them Tyler Shandro, who lost by seven votes, where they had something more than seven votes there, Dave.

00:40:48.140 Yeah, that's exact.

00:40:49.340 Hopefully they go away and they're never seen and heard from again because they were taking up, taking up too much oxygen on the airwaves.

00:40:57.720 Solidarity forever. Solidarity forever. And, you know, hopefully he keeps going and feeding, feeding the street people and feeding the homeless because, you know, that's to be applauded.

00:41:07.840 But you should give up the political game right now because he's already been the head of what, three parties already?

00:41:13.920 So he started the Independence Party and then they fired him.

00:41:17.480 The Independence Party fired him. So I think just to just the two. Okay. Well, that's that's pretty good in two weeks. Yeah, the Alberta Party is looking for a leader. Yeah, there we go. So anyway, hopefully we he will never be heard from again.

00:41:30.040 Corey, we'll talk a matter of expertise for you. I guess this is the last question before we go. The kind of the constellation of further right parties in Alberta. Some of them had different, very different strategies.

00:41:43.040 Poloski's solidarity forever. Its goal was explicitly to split the vote and kill the NDP failed. And it's pure cult of personality, the party.

00:41:55.040 Then you have the Alberta Independence Party, which fashions itself a serious party, got virtually no votes, couldn't field candidates, but tried to field candidates.

00:42:06.040 Absolutely nothing. Wild Rose Independence Party, I think intentionally only just ran two candidates this time to stay registered and they actually endorsed the while the UCP under Danielle Smith tepidly saying well vote for them this time, but like we're going to be watching them and we'll be back if we'll be back if she screws up.

00:42:28.440 And then Paul Hymond's Wellrose Loyalty Coalition, which is not a points card for the gas station.

00:42:38.920 That is not a points card, I assure you.

00:42:40.960 He tried to make a big show of it, said he was going to run like 30-something candidates, ended up running like some fairly small.

00:42:47.280 It wasn't a lot.

00:42:48.760 Yeah, less than half of what he said he would run.

00:42:52.400 Kind of general, you could pick from one, or you could talk about them all in aggregate,

00:42:56.060 but your thought about kind of the constellation of small parts.

00:42:58.440 And there is more.

00:42:59.140 There's Buffalo.

00:42:59.720 There's the Advantage party.

00:43:01.600 Yeah, Albert Advantage.

00:43:02.560 There's a bunch.

00:43:03.100 There's just a shotgun blast.

00:43:04.300 These little puppies all over the wall right now.

00:43:06.440 And none of them have any traction.

00:43:08.540 None.

00:43:09.420 It's time for Paul to hang up his boots.

00:43:11.120 I like Paul.

00:43:11.680 Always have.

00:43:12.500 But that's enough.

00:43:13.660 You know, in his own of Karsten Warner, where he's got a fair network and connection and name recognition, he pulled under 300 in some seats.

00:43:22.240 Votes.

00:43:23.120 Or votes, yeah.

00:43:24.540 Paul Hinman for supermajority.

00:43:26.260 Yeah.

00:43:26.580 Yeah. So, I mean, there's just not an appetite for an alternative right party at this time. I mean,

00:43:32.800 some of them might want to try and continue maintenance, keep a skeleton crew and see if

00:43:36.900 it'll turn into something down the road, but it's not a factor right now for sure. And I don't see

00:43:43.260 it coming to be a factor anytime soon. Basically, the thing that would feed that is if Smith starts

00:43:48.760 pilting hard left and I can't see that happening anytime soon. A lot of people couldn't have seen

00:43:53.720 Jason Kenney doing it.

00:43:54.680 True enough.

00:43:55.860 Nothing's impossible in Alberta politics, so you can't write anything off.

00:43:59.140 I would generally agree, but if it's impossible, it will probably happen.

00:44:05.460 Okay, well, we're out of time.

00:44:06.920 We're going to wrap it up there.

00:44:07.900 Thank you, Corey.

00:44:08.560 Thank you, Nigel.

00:44:09.200 Oh, by the way, introducing Dave Naylor, news editor.

00:44:11.400 I'm not Nigel.

00:44:12.560 You're not?

00:44:13.120 No, you just called me Nigel.

00:44:14.120 Did I say Nigel?

00:44:14.820 You did.

00:44:15.160 I think I said Dave.

00:44:15.960 No, you said Nigel.

00:44:16.880 You're not even going to introduce it at all.

00:44:17.340 We can go back on the tape if you want.

00:44:19.400 I'm only introducing Sean Polzer here.

00:44:22.040 that's sean alberta reporter uh but dave and corey are not welcome here they're not getting

00:44:27.400 introduced at all here today thank you very much for joining us uh if you're not yet a member of

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00:44:35.400 dollars a year for unlimited western standard government bailout free content thank you very

00:44:40.440 much for joining us today god bless here's an update on commodity prices in lethbridge for today

00:44:45.560 Cash barley is down $2.00 at $4.03, feed wheat is down $2.00 at $4.04, and corn is down $3.00 at $3.93 per metric tonne.

00:44:54.560 In the milling wheat markets, July Minneapolis futures are lower 11.75 cents at $7.81 per bushel, with local hard red spring bid for May movement at $10.47.

00:45:05.560 Looking at canola, nearby futures drop $7.60 at $6.50.60 per tonne, with

00:45:12.480 delivered values per June movement at $14.97 per bushel. In the pulse markets,

00:45:17.160 nearby red lentil prices are trading at $0.33 per pound and yellow peas are

00:45:21.440 holding at $11.25 per bushel. And in the cattle markets, August live cattle

00:45:26.000 added $0.175 at $1.6735 per hundredweight. For more information on pricing or

00:45:32.160 picked up options, give me a call at 403-394-1711. I'm Matt Busiekum at Marketplace Commodities,

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Western Standard - June 01, 2023

The Pipeline： The UCP won. Now what？

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