It's been two days since the Alberta election, and the United Conservative Party has won a majority government, but what does that mean for the next four years under Jason Kenney and the rest of the New Democratic Party? We talk about that and much more on this week's show.
00:00:00.000Good evening, I'm Derek Fildebrandt, publisher of the Western Standard, and you're watching
00:00:16.980The Pipeline. Today is May 31st, 2023, E-Day, minus two. It's been two days since the big
00:00:24.200election. The UCP has won. But now what? We're going to be talking about the new shape of
00:00:30.720Alberta's political map. The UCP might have painted it still mostly blue. There's a lot more
00:00:35.540orange on it. And we're going to talk about the changing political geography and demography
00:00:39.280of Alberta's political map now. We're going to talk about what kind of premier we can expect
00:00:44.820Smith to be now because we've seen different kinds of Smith. We've seen Radio Show Smith.
00:00:49.500We saw Wild Rose Smith, Radio Show Smith, used to be Leadership Smith, Election Smith, and then Election Night Smith.
00:00:56.580We want to, we're going to predict what Smith we're likely to see over the next four years.
00:01:02.900And we're also going to talk, though, about the future of the NDP and Rachel Notley herself.
00:01:07.780The NDP set a record number of votes for that party in this province, even though they did not manage to form a government.
00:01:14.180We're going to talk about the future has in store for them.
00:01:16.020But before we do that, we got to thank, as usual, my favorite sponsor, the Canadian Shooting Sports Association.
00:01:22.000I've been a member of the CSSA for over a decade because I trust them to defend my rights as a firearms owner in Canada.
00:01:30.320Gun owner rights in Canada are under constant attack by the federal government.
00:01:34.240And the Canadian Shooting Sports Association is the most powerful thing standing in the way between you and the federal government taking your lawful guns away.
00:01:42.780If you're not a member of the CSSA yet, go to CSSA-CILA right now or do like I do and Google it and become a member.
00:01:51.080It is critical that gun owners stand together and join together in a group like the Canadian Shooting Sports Association.
00:04:21.220The only seat, when you look at the grand map of Alberta, you can't see any orange at all.
00:04:27.080It doesn't look like the NDP won a single seat, because they're all urban, with one lone exception, where you hang your hat in Banff, Kananaskis.
00:04:44.440But the NDP's path to victory was just like, they had to sweep Calgary.
00:04:50.520And they did win just a bare majority, actually, of Calgary seats.
00:04:55.620I think like 24 or 26, something like that.
00:05:02.620But I don't know, do you think this kind of permanently upends what we think of Calgary?
00:05:07.620Because the only time the NDP has won a lot in Calgary before was 2015 when they could rely on so-called vote splits between Wildrose and progressive conservatives.
00:05:15.620They brought the Alberta party vote behind them.
00:05:18.620But what do you think this is telling us about the political geography of Alberta now?
00:05:22.620now. I don't think it's changed as much as some might think. As you kind of mentioned, the Alberta
00:05:27.240Party and the Liberals, they were always there and they were always kind of cutting things up
00:05:31.340and they were not a factor this time. I think some people brought up that that was traditionally
00:05:35.760like 170,000 votes. That's more than enough to change a whole lot of the outcomes and races
00:05:41.320across this province. So as you said, this is a high watermark. And yes, it was dearly close,
00:05:47.620a number of those ridings on both sides. I mean, some people said, oh, well, if the NDP just had
00:05:52.320an extra few thousand votes, it would have changed the whole thing. That's true. But if the UCP just
00:05:56.060had a few thousand votes and a few, they would have eight more as well. But it was very, very
00:06:00.340close. But how are they going to capture more? I mean, there's a chance of the, as there's already
00:06:06.660people hoping that the Smith government will implode somehow in the next four years. But I
00:06:10.820don't see- They are conservatives. They are likely to implode over four years. They like doing that.
00:06:14.020Yeah. So, but there's not much else more they can grab. I mean, the popular vote was still over 50%
00:06:19.920for the UCP. There was no other factor splitting the NDP vote. They had as good a leader as they've
00:06:26.140ever had and probably ever will, at least for the foreseeable future. I don't see how they can climb
00:06:31.040much higher after this. Plus, the unknown factor of Smith will be gone by the time the next election,
00:06:35.760whatever it might be. It could be that they know they don't want her. Or if she's just stable,
00:06:40.600for four years, she'll recapture a lot of Calgary.
00:06:42.720Dave, Calgary is, I was saying, it's split just pretty much 50-50 at this point.
00:06:54.480Now, that's, again, not quite as much as the NDP had in 2015 when they won, but the NDP won a higher share of the vote than they did, actually, in 2015.
00:07:04.840and the UCP, between the combined Wildrose and PC and the UCP in 2019, and the UCP this time,
00:07:12.760it's actually been pretty steady. I guess, we're going to actually, if we have time, we actually
00:07:19.340want to get into smaller parties later, but I guess the big thing is now, it's such a strict
00:07:23.280two-party system. Smith got a higher percentage of the vote here than possibly even Klein ever got.
00:07:29.240She did, yes. But Klein. And Law. And Law, yeah. The difference, and Law, he'd had one election
00:07:34.340where he won literally almost every single seat.
00:07:37.060The difference is you would always have a divided opposition splitting up that vote.
00:07:41.920Now it's just, it's your blue team or your orange team, and that's it.
00:07:49.000Do you think this will perhaps change just how Calgary views itself as this conservative bastion now?
00:08:41.480If the hopefully the diversification of the UCP and the bringing in of businesses by the, you know, hopefully by the billions,
00:08:48.940they'll be bringing in oil workers and high tech workers who are not likely to be NDP supporters, but more supporters of the UCP.
00:08:57.120So, you know, and just the social problems that, you know, Corey has detailed in Nazium and Calgary, I think that they're only going to get worse at the moment.
00:09:09.440And I think that's going to take a lot of the NDP sting away because people are just going to get fed up of it.
00:09:15.560So I'm going to come back more to geography again, but maybe the higher level again.
00:09:20.220You heard, you know, a lot of the legacy media, they were saying, oh, the UCP is not going to be able to be very representative because, well, they don't have all the seats in Calgary.
00:09:31.200They've got like 12, like 12-ish, maybe up to 14, depending on recounts.
00:09:35.840But let's say 12 seats in Calgary, half the seats.
00:09:43.120Although UCP does have the entire donut around Calgary.
00:09:45.800So like Strathcona Sherwood Park, what's his name? It's not Jordan Walker, is that? Well, anyway, the UCP guy representing Strathcona Sherwood Park, that guy's going to be in cabinet because it's a de facto Edmonton seat.
00:10:00.960But they were saying that the UCP is such a rural party. It's got just one leg of the stool, but it's still, despite losing a bunch of seats, it still seems to me to be still much more geographically and demographically diverse than the NDP is.
00:10:15.800The NDP is purely urban. It is Edmonton. It is generally inner and Northeast Calgary. And I guess the weird asterisk writing that we, where you are from, Banff, Cananaskis, where you've got, you know, kind of the Banff, Canmore kind of culture in it.
00:10:36.000The NDP just seems so locked geographically, demographically, because it just has no appeal outside the two cities.
00:10:45.200No, and that's, again, where I feel a little more, as you said,
00:10:48.020the high watermark has been sort of hit.
00:10:49.920I mean, they could potentially gain more ground in Calgary,
00:11:01.040But the day that the NDP wins something like, you know,
00:11:04.440Olds Didsbury or Grand Prairie or Highwood is not going to be coming anytime soon.
00:11:10.060Yeah, so for the NDP to win, like the NDP didn't come, I'll have to dig in the numbers a little bit more, but other than Banff Kananaskis, which the NDP ever so barely, barely won, and it is only technically a rural riding.
00:11:26.100It's largely kind of a weird urban, ex-urban riding.
00:11:30.440But they didn't, I have to dig in the numbers, but unless I'm mistaken, I don't think they came close anywhere in Alberta, other Banff, Kananaskis, outside of the two big cities.
00:11:40.320They just, they weren't even competitive, whereas the UCP was in a few Edmonton ridings.
00:11:47.560I mean, you could see them one day, maybe winning some Edmonton ridings, and a ton of Calgary ridings that the UCP were competitive in.
00:11:55.540Whereas the NDP Dave is just utterly not in the universe of most seats outside of Calgary and Edmonton. And I just don't see how they're going to have ever a reasonable path to victory unless they can become competitive outside the two big cities.
00:12:11.120No, and it shows you how hated their farm bill was, Bill 6, I think it was.
00:12:27.600And how do they change their message without abandoning, you know, what they are as a party?
00:12:33.040You know, where their history is being.
00:12:35.660And, you know, I'm sure we're going to get to Miss Notley later on, but the only way they're going to change that is to attract a candidate, a leadership candidate that can be sold in those places.
00:12:49.260But as of right now, there's no way they're winning in rural Alberta.
00:12:53.340Well, I think you alluded quite correctly that I was maybe getting a little ahead of ourselves to talking about the future of the NDP and Notley, but I think there's a lot more we can cover there in a bit.
00:13:03.660So we've seen different kinds of Smith. I mean, there was, you know, the policy wonk Smith before she entered politics at all. And there was kind of a charming populist right wing rural Smith you saw when she was wild rose leader.
00:13:21.280You know, then there was radio show Smith, real gadfly, controversial, likes to stir the pod, have a conversation.
00:13:30.280And then UCP leadership candidate Smith, who was populist crusader, you know, pretty much dressed with a Viking helmet there to storm the gates.
00:13:41.100And then UCP premier, an election smith, which was trying to calm the waters and make sure everyone knows that she's not nuts.1.00
00:13:51.080But election night, she kind of re-hinted about, remember, guys, we're taking on Ottawa, we're doing this stuff.
00:13:57.540In an interview she's given since, she has even hinted pretty strongly that if Ottawa tries to cap emissions,
00:14:04.400that would be a de facto production cap on oil and gas in Alberta, she'd consider using the Sovereignty Act, the big nuke.
00:14:10.860And we didn't hear too much about that during the election.
00:14:14.840Corey, which Danielle Smith do you think is going to show up over the next few years?
00:14:18.740I think she can only suppress the ideological Danielle Smith for so long.1.00
00:14:22.680I'm not so worried about that, too, because I do believe a lot of her policies, if implemented properly, will show benefit if she brings them in.
00:14:28.920I mean, the health care savings account could be very interesting and beneficial.
00:14:34.400Some of the treatment-based things for addicts, I mean, if those start showing results, it's going to look good for her.
00:14:40.440Fighting against Ottawa is always a win, even if you lose the battle.
00:14:44.160Just kind of wonder, my bigger concern is how well the manager, Daniel Smith, is of the caucus of the others.
00:14:51.560Having, you know, worked with her to a degree with the Wild Rose when she was leading that and I was in the executive.
00:14:56.840I would hope in her time out from politics, she's humbled a bit and realized that, again, if you lose the support below you, it doesn't matter what you're doing.
00:15:06.620You could really, conservatives learn that all the time.
00:15:32.160So obviously she leans strongly against that kind of counter-talking it, trying to demonstrate she's reasonable and clear-headed.
00:15:40.440But do you think she's going to continue more in that personality of just like, don't really do much over four years, just try not to rock the boat and be kind of quiet?
00:15:49.600Or do you think, do you think she'll be kind of one of those genuinely transformative premiers that, you know, you are likely to see an Alberta police force, an Alberta pension plan, an Alberta revenue agency, potential use of invocation of the, of the sovereignty act?
00:16:08.640I don't think it's in her nature to be quiet and just ride out four years.
00:16:13.700I think Jen Gerson said it best in her column this morning.
00:16:17.000She's either going to last 18 months or she'll be going to last eight years.0.86
00:16:21.480She's got a couple of big decisions ahead of her, including a cabinet she's lost.
00:16:25.740She needs to find a health minister because that'll be probably her most important nomination.1.00
00:16:31.060She needs to find a finance minister with the retirement of Travis Taves.
00:16:35.540But I think if she's the premier that she says she wants to be for all Albertans and has listened to people and will listen to the people, I think you may see the provincial police force fall away because I don't think the majority of Albertans want that.
00:16:57.520And certainly the fight against Ottawa and Trudeau, definitely.
00:17:01.380And she said she's girding for that fight already.
00:17:03.880as you said Derek in her acceptance speech so it's all to be determined but you know hopefully
00:17:11.200we've got you know her not going off the reservation by herself but listening to
00:17:16.840everybody around her and surrounding herself with smart people which I don't think the last
00:17:22.200premier probably did to his best abilities um the we talked about this a fair bit on election night
00:17:31.480the the longevity of Alberta conservative Premiers is not very long the last time an
00:17:40.720Alberta conservative premier in Alberta finished a single term I was in high school was Ralph Klein
00:17:46.7202004 and the last time an Alberta premier retired without being pushed out by the electorate or
00:17:51.460their party was one year I was born 1985 when Peter Lockheed retired there's nothing like this
00:17:58.960anywhere else in Canada. Being the Alberta Conservative leader is a death wish. It's a political death wish. It might be a cool job, but it is not there for the long term generally. Eventually, I believe at some point in our history in my lifetime, at least there will be an Alberta Conservative Premier who completes a four year term. It will happen before I die, I'm sure.
00:18:23.960And I know it's an impossible prediction right now, so I'm not going to ask you to predict because events come. But maybe we'll start with you, Corey. What do you think the really big, let's say two things Daniel Smith needs to do to make it to the next election and be the first Alberta conservative since 2004 to actually complete a term and make it to at least an opportunity to get reelected?
00:18:49.960And number one is listen to and genuinely respect her caucus.
00:18:55.060And, you know, it was something she said on her show many a time, actually.
00:18:57.760She said one of the things she learned, if you've lost your caucus, you're done.
00:19:00.920That's what she felt happened with the Wildrose, even in opposition.
00:19:31.520Number two is making sure something doesn't fire up in her right flank.1.00
00:19:34.680Right now, the alternative parties, there's nothing to speak of going on over there.
00:19:39.080But that's part of what really was the hindrance for Stelmack, the hindrance for Prentice,
00:19:43.260the hindrance for Redford was this growing wild rose going on over there
00:19:47.760that was taking an element of them and a bite out of their policies and giving a home to the
00:19:51.900discontented to go towards. If they got nowhere to go, they'll grumble and stay in caucus. But
00:19:56.640so she's got to make sure a fire doesn't light outside of her own party as well. So she's gonna
00:20:01.640have to juggle those two things. And she can maintain I think for four years. Like Ralph Klein0.96
00:20:06.820was always very cautious, you know, you can't govern on the fringes. But whenever he saw any
00:20:13.320significant stirring on his right flank. He'd turn like the guns of the Missouri, just
00:20:20.060and he'd point some guns and blast it. He would do something to bring those people decisively back
00:20:26.260in, mostly successfully. Paul Hinman was actually first elected as Alberta Alliance in 2004,
00:20:33.260Klein's last election, but he was always careful to try and bring those guys back in,
00:20:37.920whereas I think his successors generally just ignored, took it for granted that there's not
00:20:42.340allowed to be anything in my right flank. We're the conservatives for God's sakes. And obviously,
00:20:46.500that was not a very good long term strategy. Dave, same question to you. What are the two big things
00:20:52.780Daniel Smith needs to do to have the best possible chance of being the first conservative premier
00:20:59.020since Ralph Klein to actually make it to an attempt to get reelected? Of course, hit the nail
00:21:05.680on the head. It's all about caucus control. And I think if she can play the Trudeau card properly
00:21:12.960and fight that battle correctly, then I think that eliminates the parties on the right, like
00:21:18.620the independence parties and whatnot. And those voters will stay with them. And if she can keep
00:21:25.480caucus under control, then in terms of issues, it's economy and health. If she runs those two1.00
00:21:32.460files, well, she can be premier as long as she wants. Because I think we've seen all the NDP
00:21:38.460can throw at her. There's not going to be secret, more secret recordings of her talking about
00:21:43.400selling off hospitals or... Oh, you haven't seen what I got. Yeah, we haven't even opened up our
00:21:48.540closet yet. But, you know, the UCP did their best. Sorry, the NDP did their best to discredit her,
00:21:54.340and they lost. And I kind of agree with what Corey was saying. Even though there may be some
00:22:00.340UCP caucus members who aren't her fans, I don't think right now there's an appetite for another
00:22:05.300election. Well, no, no, no. There's election or leadership or leadership. You know what? If you
00:22:14.240push it too many times, I know we've talked about it in the past. You almost look like an Italian1.00
00:22:19.560government, you know, changing the head every two or three years. But we do do that. I know. We've
00:22:24.480been doing that since 2004. And to be honest, I think voters get sick of it. They want to see
00:22:31.080some stability. But in every one of those elections since 2004, except for 2015, they have
00:22:36.640elected conservatives. And some have argued, actually, that was the great trick to conservative
00:22:40.980longevity. Premier gets unpopular, kill the premier, bring in someone else, call an election,
00:22:47.460everyone votes for the new guy, the new guy gets unpopular, kill that guy and rinse and repeat.
00:22:51.900Yeah, but it's not the population that's killing the guy. It's the small percentage of party members.
00:22:57.280But generally the leaders they take down are unpopular, both with the party and importantly with the general population when they do it.
00:23:04.020So I think that's another one of the things that for a caucus to turn on a leader, they're unlikely to do it, I think, while the party's high in the polls.
00:23:14.560Am I going to keep my seat? Yeah, okay, well, probably continue along. Although a lot of, there's a lot of ego stuff like, am I in cabinet? If you're in cabinet, you probably want to support the current leadership. If not, well, maybe you want a new leader who appreciates how truly talented you are and why you should be in cabinet.
00:23:31.860But unpopular premiers are more likely to get taken down. But remember with Kenny, Kenny never lost caucus. He lost some of caucus and increasingly lost a fair chunk of it, but he never lost an outright majority of caucus.
00:23:47.060Caucus didn't host him. It was the grassroots of the party and new members who signed up who were white hot angry at him that took him down in contrast to Stelmack.
00:23:59.200That was caucus. Redford, caucus. Prentice was, well, himself in the election.
00:24:06.200Kenny was not caucus. That was an insurgency of the grassroots was very different. And those two things often have very different interests. The grassroots tend to be more ideological, more passionate, whereas caucus, I mean, this might not sound nice, but it's more concerned about self-preservation and getting re-elected or getting into cabinet.
00:24:28.000well keep in mind you had those what 21 22 mps that wrote that letter uh complaining about the
00:24:34.720the lockdown you had very very close caucus votes and then they were talking about expelling todd
00:24:40.240lowen uh it was more unanimous uh with drew barnes but but it was close with tom on so he
00:24:47.360he surely did not have the backing of all or the full amount of his caucus you know he maybe had
00:24:53.28050 to 55, 60% who would support him, you know, and who knows what happens when you don't have
00:25:00.000to identify yourself in a vote where you're going to go. Okay, well, let's, let's talk about the
00:25:05.680future of the NDP and Rachel Notley. Maybe those things are going to continue to be the same thing,
00:25:11.360maybe not. So Monday night, Rachel Notley said that she is staying on as opposition leader.
00:25:18.240Now, she did not say, and I'm going to be here fighting in four years, and that's actually, I think, fair.
00:25:24.540She does not need to decide that night rashly, I'm resigning immediately, or I'm going to be running for premier for like a fourth time in four years.
00:26:05.440Yeah, so she's around 60 years old, not a spring chicken, but also there's many politicians who are significantly older.0.92
00:26:11.640So, you know, she's still got time if she wants to.
00:26:15.400but she was first elected in 2008 and served in the two-member NDP caucus, then 2012 served in the
00:26:23.480four-member NDP caucus, and then 2015 was her high water mark as premier, but then since then,
00:26:29.240but she's now run for premier three times already as leader. 2015 where she won, 2019 where she lost,
00:26:35.2402023 where she's lost. I guess two-part question, maybe you'll answer the same for both, maybe
00:26:41.880differently. I'll start with you, Corey. Your best bet, will Rachel Notley make a fourth attempt
00:26:50.360for the Premier's chair? And should she? If you are her in the NDP?
00:26:55.760Yeah, this is a guess on my part, of course. I don't think she's going to.
00:27:01.560She's doing it in a controlled way. She cares for the party. I mean, you don't have to step down
00:27:05.400that night. You can go six months, maybe a year even just say, okay, it's time and we can have a
00:27:09.640race and rejuvenate and do it in a calm and not as fractious manner as a sudden race.
00:27:14.940Because she's got to be getting a bit tired. I mean, you know, she's looking tired. She's put a0.65
00:27:18.380lot in and there's nothing more she could throw at the next race. If she could think of something,0.97
00:27:23.560perhaps, I don't think she wants to run for opposition leader again. She only wants to
00:27:27.420run for premier again. So what could she do that would be different, even if it's a different UCP
00:27:32.580leader in four years that might get her over that line? And there's not really anything outstanding.
00:27:37.940We sort of covered that earlier. Likewise, you know, should she stay in? I think for her own
00:27:43.100sake and for the NDP's sake, I think not. Some people keep saying, well, who else is there?
00:27:47.540Well, there's names out there and there's people, but the opening has to come and they will surface
00:27:52.400whether, I mean, it was a long shot speculation, but I don't say it's impossible for Nancy to
00:27:57.220throw his hat in looking at something like that. Or you might have Shannon Phillips or Janice Irwin
00:28:03.020going, well, a race with those three would show. Do you want a campaign to be opposition or do
00:28:07.080want to campaign to become government it would be a potentially rejuvenating effort on the part of
00:28:11.480the party to figure out really what their path is and what they're going to go with uh again i'm
00:28:16.600asking you both sometimes a lot of the same questions today because there's a lot of perspectives
00:28:19.960on it uh if you are rachel notley do you think what are the chances you know should you run and
00:28:28.040will you run should she run no will she run no uh i think as you said derek uh i think she was
00:28:36.120She was probably a little bit shocked, a little bit upset on Monday night, didn't want to say anything rash, even though I thought she might. She's going to take her time and make the best decision for her personally. You know, she did exhaust herself in the campaign. She did everything she could. She had no more left to give at the end of the day.
00:28:59.240So she'll, you know, the only way I see her to stay is if the party begs her and says, look, we need you.
00:29:06.960We got nobody else, which I don't think is true.
00:29:10.000So I think after the cold light of day, she will resign.
00:29:14.600There'll be the leadership convention.
00:29:28.600But, I mean, it's also probably the best job she's ever had, short of being premier, I guess, and very possibly the best job she will ever have.
00:29:38.600But it's hard to, I mean, it's not like the Senate where you've got to really mail it in.
00:29:41.920But opposition leader, you could mail it in, but that means if she's going to mail in, you know, if she's just going to kind of take it easy, it means they'll probably lose seats next time.
00:29:50.360They definitely will not form government.
00:29:54.600New Democrat leaders are not expected to win 100% of the time as a matter of course.
00:30:01.500They're granted some leeway, but, you know, 2015, they tasted power, and they liked the taste, as most do.
00:30:10.380So what is the, let's talk about, you know, actually, you know, we're going to talk about this,
00:30:17.580and then we're going to talk about individual replacements, because these two, I think, are related.
00:30:21.640The NDP in most provinces and federally, kind of use itself as a conscious of Parliament, they're not supposed to win, but they're supposed to be there and be the really good guys and normally kind of force the other parties, namely the liberals to implement their great, more aggressively left leaning policies.
00:30:42.640There's exceptions in BC, they compete to win in Manitoba, they compete to win in Saskatchewan.
00:30:51.640they kind of think they compete to win and maybe they will again one day but generally the ndp is
00:30:56.680the third party and it's there to be the conscious um do you think do you think the ndp is going to
00:31:04.280look at this and think god you know we got more votes than the time we won in 2015 and we still
00:31:11.480lost and frankly if you look at the math of it even if we got as many votes as the ucp we probably
00:31:17.640still would have narrowly lost Alberta and they just hate us so badly outside the two big cities and in southern Calgary. If you're the MVP Corey you look at this do you say why should we bother trying to water ourselves down why we just be ourselves except we're not going to be in government and maybe we'll have a few less seats but we can still have a big opposition caucus and really just be ourselves and true to our principles or do you think they look at this and say so close.
00:31:47.640we can do it. We've just got to get the right leader who is perceived as more Calgary friendly,
00:31:55.380maybe more rural friendly, more moderate than Rachel Notley. Which lesson do you think they're
00:32:00.140going to draw from this? Because they could draw either from it. Well, I think all of them are
00:32:03.740having to make that personal decision. I think that the political thinkers among the member wise
00:32:08.300all the way up to the caucus members know that that's the choice they're sitting in. Now they've
00:32:12.340maxed out in their current incarnation. So if they want to go for the big ring, they got to change
00:32:16.400something. Well, actually, I'm going to interrupt. I'm sorry. I didn't mean to. I don't mean to interrupt, but there's maybe a third one. And sometimes conservatives often draw this, which is we lost because we were too moderate. We didn't inspire people to vote enough. The conservatives made that choice when they elected Danielle Smith. They went to the right of Jason Kenney and said, like, we're losing because Jason Kenney is this mushy and we're losing people to the right. Now, the NDP does not face anything on their left. But I suppose the third lesson they could draw is we were
00:32:46.380too milquetoast, we were too moderate. And we need to be more, more lefty, more progressive,
00:32:52.120because that'll inspire people in bigger numbers. And that'll put us over the top.
00:32:55.940So we won't put you over the top in rural areas.
00:33:00.220Well, I don't know about Calgary. I mean, I think if any of their policy,
00:33:02.920when they finally went to policy, put something out, it was the corporate tax hike. And that
00:33:06.380fizzled. I mean, that did not resonate with people. And that's getting a little closer to
00:33:10.560their true roots on what the sort of thing they would go for as a ideologically more pure NDP.
00:33:16.380And that's where I think the big test for them to find out what they want to be would have the best route would be a leadership race where they can have two competing visions and their own members could choose that between a Todd Hirsch or a Nenshi or a Janice or, you know, or a Shannon Phillips.
00:33:31.320And then they really will get a measure of their own party to say, look, guys, do we want to moderate?
00:33:36.160Do we want to embrace some of the things we move forward?
00:33:38.280Or can we sleep better at night just by accepting we're going to be opposition,
00:33:41.040but we're going to be a principled one that sticks to their core values and really hammers it to them.
00:33:46.560But nothing less, I think, than a leadership race would really help them all examine and choose on something like that.
00:33:50.680So you forced me to kind of put that follow-up question to Dave rather than ask him the same question again.
00:33:56.200But it's very much related, and you can take it that way, Dave.
00:34:00.800So the leadership race is ultimately going to determine which lessons I think the NDP learn from this.
00:34:08.000I think, you know, they could say Nenshi or Hirsch will be viewed as Calgary-friendly, moderate relative to NDP.
00:34:17.400I mean, those guys are on the left, but, I mean, they're not wearing Che Guevara watches.
00:34:22.540You know, they're a different kind of left.
00:34:27.380They're seen as not explicitly anti-business. They've had real jobs kind of thing. Or you have, you know, Shannon Phillips, maybe Sarah Hoffman, Janice Irwin, where they're going to go, and some of them are maybe more radical than others there.
00:34:46.080but they're going to say, they would probably not say, well, we're never going to win again,
00:34:51.460so we may as well just be ourselves. They'll never say that out loud. Some of them might
00:34:55.220think that, but others might say, as I was saying earlier, we didn't win because we weren't hard
00:34:59.760enough. That didn't inspire people. We were just too boring. Because conservatives sometimes draw
00:35:05.240that lesson, and sometimes that lesson leads to them winning, and sometimes it leads to them
00:35:09.160losing. You know, it's kind of dealer's choice. But who do you think the big likely contenders are
00:35:17.140to replace Rachel Notley? And what do you think each of them? What were the chances you think
00:35:23.640of them winning? I don't know. We're really kind of handicapping a race that hasn't even
00:35:26.200theoretically begun. But I will disagree with one thing you said, where they've got no chance
00:35:31.460of increasing in the next election. I think they do. I think they do. I think they do. But it's
00:35:37.140all part of regeneration. You have to come up with a new leader. You have to come up with a
00:35:42.880new leader who, as you just said, can hold Edmonton while just increasing a few seats in
00:35:48.660Calgary and maybe a rural one. So is that Nahed Nenshi? A lot of people in Calgary don't like
00:35:55.460the legacy that he's left. A lot of people still do like him. I think Calgary is a strange city in
00:36:02.160that, that they're more progressive, but they draw the line at maybe drag queen story time for
00:36:09.060children. You know, that that's a line that most Calgarians probably don't want to cross,
00:36:15.160but Janice Irwin would be, you know, one every afternoon in every school. So she would offer0.88
00:36:21.080the stark, the stark NDP platform, but one that would never get elected. So while she may run
00:36:29.780and become leader of the party, if they do, then I think that kills any chance of them becoming...
00:36:35.620They're going back down to the inner core downtowns of the two states.
00:36:44.640But with some regeneration, a new popular leader that can take on, Premier Smith,
00:36:52.440assuming she hasn't imploded, then, yeah, I mean, the chances are there.
00:36:57.060But as with the UCP, they have to be very, very careful with who they select as a leader.
00:37:03.820Make sure they've got the right one that can appeal to those Tory voters, conservative voters.
00:37:10.260So, Majo, I can add whatever I want to it, and I'm adding a section that I think we need to talk a little bit about.
00:37:17.260Let's give a little bit of time to the small parties.
00:37:20.560Let's give them some honorable mention.
00:37:22.040In the 2015, 2012, the Liberals collapsed from being a significant opposition party and the official opposition to a tiny opposition party with like 10% of the vote and just five seats in the legislature.
00:37:36.220That was when Wild Rose took over as a fairly sizable official opposition.
00:37:40.180um then 2015 when the uh yeah it's 2012 2015 the time the ndp won the liberals were reduced to like
00:37:49.460two percent of the vote and one seat david swan an incumbent uh and the ndp swallowed almost all
00:37:55.700the liberal vote up by 2019 the liberals were well and truly gone zero seats probably less than one
00:38:02.820percent of the vote roughly they digested them but the alberta party in 2019 had between eight
00:38:08.82010 percent of the vote nothing that's nothing uh nothing to sneeze at this time though the alberta
00:38:15.220party vanished vaporized in fact by number of votes the third party in alberta is the greens
00:38:23.8600.8 point eight percent and that was the third party not even a percentage and the alberta party
00:38:29.7800.7 yeah um so i guess i don't even really want to spend time on the greens let's talk about the
00:38:37.380the Alberta Party for the last time. The media are obsessed with the Alberta Party because they
00:38:41.980just love it. It's this cute little thing, and it deserves to do so well. It's finally dead.
00:38:48.920Corey, give us the epitaph of the Alberta Party for right now.
00:38:55.340Well, finally, the feel-good, we stand for everything and we stand for nothing party has
00:39:00.580gone to the political dumpster where it belongs. As you said, the media kept pumping their tires as
00:39:05.420if they were a force and it would annoy me to no end at every election. And I understand up and
00:39:11.360coming new parties. I've taken part in them and they've gotten somewhere. They'd only stand for
00:39:15.300something. We'd be the official opposition and we couldn't get five minutes of air time on some
00:39:19.460stations and the Alberta party leader would be there for five minutes and polling at 2%.
00:39:24.080So the reality has come home. Now, I don't know if they're gone for good. A registered entity,
00:39:28.760The right person can pick it up, perhaps, and turn it to something.
00:39:31.920But the conventional media finally recognized that they're no more popular than Pawlowski's little fringe party off to the side there.
00:40:33.660He is going to cost them this election.
00:40:36.600At best, it seems, you can make the case that maybe they cost them Tyler Shandro, who lost by seven votes, where they had something more than seven votes there, Dave.
00:40:49.340Hopefully they go away and they're never seen and heard from again because they were taking up, taking up too much oxygen on the airwaves.
00:40:57.720Solidarity forever. Solidarity forever. And, you know, hopefully he keeps going and feeding, feeding the street people and feeding the homeless because, you know, that's to be applauded.
00:41:07.840But you should give up the political game right now because he's already been the head of what, three parties already?
00:41:13.920So he started the Independence Party and then they fired him.
00:41:17.480The Independence Party fired him. So I think just to just the two. Okay. Well, that's that's pretty good in two weeks. Yeah, the Alberta Party is looking for a leader. Yeah, there we go. So anyway, hopefully we he will never be heard from again.
00:41:30.040Corey, we'll talk a matter of expertise for you. I guess this is the last question before we go. The kind of the constellation of further right parties in Alberta. Some of them had different, very different strategies.
00:41:43.040Poloski's solidarity forever. Its goal was explicitly to split the vote and kill the NDP failed. And it's pure cult of personality, the party.
00:41:55.040Then you have the Alberta Independence Party, which fashions itself a serious party, got virtually no votes, couldn't field candidates, but tried to field candidates.
00:42:06.040Absolutely nothing. Wild Rose Independence Party, I think intentionally only just ran two candidates this time to stay registered and they actually endorsed the while the UCP under Danielle Smith tepidly saying well vote for them this time, but like we're going to be watching them and we'll be back if we'll be back if she screws up.
00:42:28.440And then Paul Hymond's Wellrose Loyalty Coalition, which is not a points card for the gas station.
00:42:38.920That is not a points card, I assure you.
00:42:40.960He tried to make a big show of it, said he was going to run like 30-something candidates, ended up running like some fairly small.
00:43:13.660You know, in his own of Karsten Warner, where he's got a fair network and connection and name recognition, he pulled under 300 in some seats.
00:44:16.880You're not even going to introduce it at all.
00:44:17.340We can go back on the tape if you want.
00:44:19.400I'm only introducing Sean Polzer here.
00:44:22.040that's sean alberta reporter uh but dave and corey are not welcome here they're not getting
00:44:27.400introduced at all here today thank you very much for joining us uh if you're not yet a member of
00:44:31.640the western standard go to westernstandard.news sign up it's only ten dollars a month or a hundred
00:44:35.400dollars a year for unlimited western standard government bailout free content thank you very
00:44:40.440much for joining us today god bless here's an update on commodity prices in lethbridge for today
00:44:45.560Cash barley is down $2.00 at $4.03, feed wheat is down $2.00 at $4.04, and corn is down $3.00 at $3.93 per metric tonne.
00:44:54.560In the milling wheat markets, July Minneapolis futures are lower 11.75 cents at $7.81 per bushel, with local hard red spring bid for May movement at $10.47.
00:45:05.560Looking at canola, nearby futures drop $7.60 at $6.50.60 per tonne, with
00:45:12.480delivered values per June movement at $14.97 per bushel. In the pulse markets,
00:45:17.160nearby red lentil prices are trading at $0.33 per pound and yellow peas are
00:45:21.440holding at $11.25 per bushel. And in the cattle markets, August live cattle
00:45:26.000added $0.175 at $1.6735 per hundredweight. For more information on pricing or
00:45:32.160picked up options, give me a call at 403-394-1711. I'm Matt Busiekum at Marketplace Commodities,
00:45:39.840accurate real-time marketing information and pricing options. Canadian Shooting Sports
00:45:44.480Association, without the CSSA, our gun rights would have been taken long, long ago. These guys
00:45:50.420are on the front lines helping to draft smart and intelligent firearms regulations and legislation
00:45:56.760in Canada, and more importantly, educating the public about how we keep guns out of the hands