In this week's show, we discuss the latest in the Israel-Gaza conflict, the lack of support for Israel in the media, and what we would like to see the government do about it. Also, we have a bit of a shake-up on the panel this week, with Sean Polzer filling in for Dave, Nigel, and Derek.
00:20:13.900Well, I'd say with these policy motions, many of them are more so culture warrior type policies.
00:20:19.900Whereas when you saw with the conservative convention, uh, last month, it was mainly, well, there
00:20:25.900was a good portion that were like, you know, economic policies related to that type of stuff.
00:20:28.900This one is really culture warrior type issues.
00:20:32.900Um, the three big ones that I think will be people should watch is there's one about the just transition
00:20:38.900and using the Alberta sovereignty act to respond to it.
00:20:41.900Um, the second one that I think is going to be contentious is the pronoun policy.
00:20:47.900So it would be similar to New Brunswick and Saskatchewan and what they've been doing, where they require parental consent for students under 16 years old to change pronouns.
00:20:55.900And the third one is about 15 minutes cities and restricting land use developments to try to mitigate them.
00:21:21.900We're going to illegalize the Illuminati because they're controlling everybody's minds.
00:21:24.900I didn't let that one get to the floor, you know, but there's the hard thing with a grassroots organization.
00:21:30.900You shouldn't have an executive member stopping any policies getting through, but you've got to try and limit the insanity at the same time.
00:21:38.900But I mean, people should also understand that just because a policy has hit the floor at an AGM, or even if it's accepted by the members of AGM, it doesn't mean it's going to be actually brought into force by the elected members later.
00:21:54.900Like, you know, I know you probably played with this.
00:21:56.900I, when the NDP comes out and they get their socialist wing, puts in some crackpot stuff in their conventions, you know what, I twist the knife on it and I bug them.
00:22:04.900But I know realistically, the leadership of the NDP, Rachel Notley, isn't going to bring those extreme policies forward.
00:22:10.900Uh, we're going to see some, some serious, I think, uh, games played with some of these, you know, like the 15 minute cities things.
00:22:18.900I imagine we're going to be seeing people painting the UCP as conspiracy theorists.
00:22:23.900It's, but at the same time, I think, um, I'm not a party leader, but it would seem to be important to give voice to, you know, the grassroots and the membership.
00:22:33.900Um, you know, somebody who struggled with this a lot while he was premier was actually Ralph Klein, because Ralph Klein, you know, he's fairly socially liberal.
00:22:41.900Um, you know, so he had the fiscal, uh, Hawks all on board, but every time they went to a policy convention, there was always some kind of, you know,
00:22:48.900a resolution about, uh, you know, gay marriage or something that, that would come up, uh, you know, that he obviously was not interested in.
00:22:56.900But, you know, at the same time had to kind of pay lip service, you know, to bring them out.
00:23:01.900And I'm, and I think Smith since premier Smith, since she's been elected, you know, most of the focus has been on these economic issues, you know, electricity, energy, um, constitutional turf wars with Ottawa.
00:23:16.900And, you know, what's been sitting in the back is like you said, the, you know, the grassroots of the party that, uh, well, put her in there because they're the ones that, you know, got rid of former premier Kenny.
00:23:28.900And you have experience with wild rose and, you know, Danielle was the leader of them, you know, for quite a while.
00:23:35.900And she had her own issues with the, you know, with the membership and trying to balance, you know, like you said, you can't ignore them.
00:23:41.900I mean, you know, and I don't want to dismiss, I was just saying they don't have to follow what comes out of these conventions, but they should feel guided somewhat.
00:23:48.900I mean, this is where you get a measure of your membership, the ones who are paying your donations, knocking on your doors for you and presumably keeping you in.
00:23:58.900Uh, when you went through them, Jonathan, did you see, cause there's always the, the, the turd in the punch bowl that hits every time.
00:24:06.900Was the abortion thrown in there anywhere?
00:24:08.900I didn't see anything about that, but I saw one about medical assistance in dying and wanting to add in safeguards to that.
00:24:15.900Um, but shifting back to the crackpot ones, like there were a few where I was just like, why is this being debated at a convention?
00:24:21.900Like there was one about, uh, electronic voting machines, something like that.
00:24:26.900We haven't really seen an issue with that in Canada, but it's mainly, uh, an American one.
00:24:30.900And then there was another one about wanting to add like a second part to the charter where they want to include things like gun rights and rights against excess taxation, rights to healthcare and all that.
00:25:00.900Well, and they are going to do fodder with it.
00:25:05.900The other part that comes at these AGMs is when the policy debates come and people come up and get that microphone as proponents or all opponents and speak.
00:25:15.900And again, most people are rational and they're fine, but once in a while, you'll get somebody pop out and you know, there there's again, the age of the iPhone, no statement is going to go unrecorded.
00:25:26.900And even with, uh, like at the conservative convention, there were a few motions that when they, after they came out, you know, liberal MPs and NDP MPs, which, and even like, you know, social justice type people were coming out of a woodwork and jumping at the conservatives being like, how dare they pass this policy.
00:25:42.900So I'm sure we're definitely going to see some fallout from whether or not certain policies are adopted in the following days after that.
00:25:50.900Well, it'll be something to be watching, you know, again, as I said, this is going to be, this is more of a, you know, it's not a midterm AGM or something like that.
00:25:58.900Like this is the one that is her first is the leader really.
00:26:03.900And, and, uh, you know, it's, I mean, speaking from a business perspective, I think businesses, companies, they want to see some feelings of stability, right?
00:26:10.900They need some, some, that's what businesses always like to see is, is just.
00:26:14.900Well, and she's been out front center.
00:26:16.900Like, you know, they were talking, uh, the first hundred days, uh, you know, she was elected on the policy of, uh, you know, the corporate taxes and a lot of these, uh, social kind of issues have seemed to be taking it back.
00:26:29.900See, I, I, at the press conference last week, somebody asked her about the pronouns and, um, premier Smith gave an answer about, uh, you know,
00:26:39.900being a grassroots party and being in tune with the views of the grassroots.
00:26:43.900But, uh, she's also been pretty plain in the past on her own personal, uh, views with, you know, she's libertarian.
00:26:50.900She's, um, pro rights or whatever, you know, she's pro grade marriage.
00:26:58.900I mean, that's, she always has been, she always has been like, that's never been a secret.
00:27:02.900So, and, uh, I think she's probably personally a little bit reluctant to bring up some of these issues at, uh, AGM.
00:27:08.900You know, we haven't talked about it yet, but I, I think that's the reason why, um, they're pushing the, you know, referendum and the, you know, reopening the idea of a provincial police force, because these were kind of like the signature issues that were brought up in the leadership campaign.
00:27:26.900I mean, if you can constantly just keep on top of the agenda and keep the conversation points, as much as people are trying to pull it over to the other issues, it's a little harder when, Hey, we're, we're busy.
00:27:35.900We're now the, uh, pension plan or, or, or, you know, we're doing what we said we would do.
00:27:40.900But I mean, so, I mean, they also still do have to, uh, take the social conservative seriously.
00:27:47.900I mean, uh, we saw with, uh, uh, take back Alberta.
00:27:51.900I mean, they, they've been very active.
00:27:53.900They've, they've, you know, David Parker's outspoken unapologetically, socially conservative, uh, makes no bones about it.
00:28:01.900If you don't, you know, fill the line and he knows how to use the tools for it.
00:28:04.900You know, you get into the constituency associations, get in on the provincial executive.
00:28:08.900That's another battle that's coming up is, is the provincial executive.
00:28:12.900Have you, have you looked at many of the people running for that, Jonathan?
00:28:14.900I know that, uh, take back Alberta controls half of the board right now, and they're looking to take over the, the other half, whether or not that's the case.
00:28:22.900Um, I haven't really seen too much action online about that, but I think the main issue with this AGM is some of the policy motions that are put forward.
00:28:31.900And I would just like to add, I would, I would agree with that because, um, you know, it's easy to have.
00:28:37.900You know, it's easy to have a unified party when everything is going well, you know, like, like they have been, you know, uh, Premier Smith's been in a bit of a honeymoon, honeymoon period with voters.
00:28:46.900And, you know, she's getting a lot of support from people who, you know, are pleasantly surprised.
00:28:51.900Even people that were her detractors originally are saying that she's doing a good job.
00:28:56.900So it's easy to have a unified party when, uh, everybody's all on the same page, but you don't have to look very far back, uh, you know, uh, to, uh, Jason Kenney and what happens when, you know, that facade starts to crack and it comes out from underneath your feet.
00:29:13.900And a lot of people did say before the election that keeping that party together was going to be probably the toughest challenge that Premier Smith has in her mandate and her term.
00:29:24.900Well, she certainly learned hard lessons about that, uh, you know, in her Wildrose time and then with caucus splitting on her and a number of things.
00:29:31.900I mean, I was on the provincial executive with the Wildrose while she was the leader of the party.
00:29:36.400And for people who don't directly get involved in politics might not understand that separation.
00:29:39.900The provincial executive runs the mechanics of the party, right?
00:30:05.900I mean, Danielle Smith, I think she's really reinvented herself.
00:30:08.900Really reinvented herself from somebody who hit the political bottom so hard.
00:30:12.900Uh, I imagine she's learned a lot of things and thought on a lot of things.
00:30:15.900I know why we had some horrific battles when I was in the executive with the leader of the party.
00:30:20.900I won't detail those maybe until I write a book when her political career is done.
00:30:25.900When the names of the innocents are insane.
00:30:28.900Nothing terribly scandalous, but there was a lot of heads butting.
00:30:31.900I mean, they're, they're in the same team, but at the same time, they each tries, you know, the leader sometimes tries to usurp a little onto the provincial.
00:30:37.900Executive or the executive tries to push in and direct caucus and neither should be doing so.
00:30:44.900And that's what can really lead to some rifts and stress and problems.
00:30:49.900Well, you know, I would say, I don't mean to preempt or interrupt, but I've thought Premier Smith has done a really good job of bringing in her political leadership rivals into the cabinet.
00:30:59.900You know, I was kind of out of it for a little while, so I wasn't too attuned.
00:31:03.900But, you know, having to deal with some of these people on a daily basis, you know, Rebecca Schultz, Brian Jean, who's the agency.
00:35:59.020And going back to the Friends of Science and conservative demographic, well, that also seems to be kind of a CPP.
00:36:06.620Kind of a demographic, you know, I didn't go around and ask people what their thoughts were on the pension.
00:36:14.140But, you know, I think there's a kind of a potential split even within the UCP among, you know, UCP supporters that tend to be maybe a little more aged than younger folks.
00:36:28.940And still want to support conservative government.
00:36:32.420Well, I think a lot of older people do want to support perhaps an Alberta pension plan, but they just really want to be darn sure that my nest egg is going to be safe.
00:36:42.320But what Premier Smith did mention when the pension was announced that it would be similar or lower contribution rates and potentially higher amounts that people would receive in the end.
00:36:54.260So I think that's what's assuring people because she had promised legislation that it was guaranteed.
00:36:58.200I do think that the provincial pension plan might be the first bill coming forward.
00:37:03.440I know that Premier Smith did promise that the tax cuts thing would be.
00:37:08.180But I think right now with just the whole climate, I think that might change.
00:37:11.140And she'd probably bring forward the pension bill possibly as a first one.
00:37:13.600I know about the legislature, does it resume for another two weeks?
00:37:16.340So, I mean, anything can happen really.
00:37:18.200Yeah, I think it'd be a little, personally, I think it'd be a bit of a gamble to throw a bill out on it necessarily when she's just saying she's starting the consultation.
00:37:25.780Though, I mean, I think some critics have been fair enough when they're going through the motions of the consultation, but it sounds to me like they're pretty much got their heart set on going ahead with this.
00:37:34.740It's just a matter of determining what it's going to look like.
00:37:37.060All he needs is a referendum, really, and whether or not Albertans vote for it, I'm not too sure at this point.
00:37:41.500I mean, polling numbers do look a little mixed.
00:37:44.360And there's some uncertainty with what's going to happen.
00:37:46.940And they are skewed by demographically.
00:37:55.040You get to keep more of your check while you're going through.
00:37:57.880And then higher payouts, well, you have to be contributing for a few decades before you're even going to come close to those higher payouts because the people that are going to be collecting out of CPP are going to be getting pretty close to what they would have been getting now, right?
00:38:13.900Well, a whole lot of this rides on the interpretation of what Alberta's share in the existing fund is.
00:38:19.420And there's a huge bone of contention going on there.
00:38:23.500I mean, as Jonathan said, Trudeau's letter was an admission saying, yeah, we're dependent on Humberto for contributing.
00:38:29.140That's the only way we're keeping this thing together.
00:38:31.420And if they pull out in any form, we're going to be in some serious trouble.
00:38:34.680Well, I think it kind of becomes a proxy for equalization.
00:38:40.520And, you know, we had that referendum as well under Jason Kenney.
00:38:45.460And, you know, they haven't done anything with that.
00:38:47.780But it seems to me that the pension debate and the contributions of the Alberta pension are almost parallel, if not intersecting at some point with the equalization debate and how much money is actually flowing back to the federal government in those kind of payments as well, right?
00:39:04.140Well, beyond the overpayment, it's the amount of principal we would be entitled to.
00:39:09.040I mean, their calculation of it, I know I got barked at heavily by a few folks as soon as I even said it on Twitter.
00:39:14.480But I do feel that they're, okay, they're taking it on.
00:39:18.100And if you interpret it that way, Alberta would be entitled to well over half of what's in the pot.
00:39:24.100I just don't see Canada bending on that.
00:39:26.280But, I mean, before it goes to a referendum, I think they're going to have to have some sort of solid number, whether it's 20% of what's in there or 30%.
00:39:34.340Like we're going to say, when we pull out, we're going to have this much to start with.
00:39:39.280And there's an interesting column by Jack Mance.
00:39:42.460I'm not sure if you're familiar with Jack.
00:39:44.540Jack, I haven't seen that particular column necessarily.
00:39:46.960It was in the National Post this morning where he was talking about $384 million, basically just being a good starting point to actually have this discussion about all these other ancillary issues, including equalization and taxation and balance payments and energy security.
00:40:08.820Like they all kind of feed it because if you want pension security, then you're going to have to have some kind of an economic basis really to back it up, right?
00:40:17.360So from a, again, you know, I'll throw it kind of in your business perspective, though.
00:40:21.220I mean, that money isn't just sitting in a money bin in cash.
00:40:24.400It's all tied up in investments of all sorts and all kinds.
00:40:27.120If Alberta were to pull out and we're going to separate that, you know, boy, they've got a heck of a task.
00:40:32.780Yeah, you know, are we going to completely liquidate that fund there or do we take 30% of that fund and move it?
00:40:37.420It's going to be quite a, well, I mean, no matter how you do it, it's going to be a lot of work, but that could also disrupt business markets, too.
00:40:43.580And so you get shifting on investment priorities.
00:40:47.840You know, like wouldn't Alberta government maybe be more inclined towards some of the, you know, energy assets, right?
00:40:53.560You know, at a time when we're supposedly downplaying, you know, the fossil fuel industry.
00:40:57.540So maybe CPP unloads all its holdings in Suncor and Petro-Canada, you know, back to the Alberta government and say, here, you take it.
00:41:04.880See, I would like CPP to keep all the energy assets because that gives the rest of Canada a heck of an interest for us to keep working out here and doing well with our energy companies.
00:41:14.280Because if you sink those energy companies, you're sinking your own pension plan.
00:43:24.800Yeah, I mean, whether or not that ends up becoming a conversation, I know that Daniel Smith hasn't talked about an Alberta employment insurance plan.
00:43:34.020But, I mean, politics changes every week, so who knows?
00:43:38.040Well, when I was young and during the bust in the 80s, the crash of 86, 87, when I just happened to graduate from high school,
00:43:46.280you know, the Alberta alphabet at the time was UICALCBRCMP, you know, like, it wasn't called employment insurance.
00:43:59.620No, it was unemployment insurance at that time.
00:47:02.040The current Lethbridge feed grain prices are as follows.
00:47:05.160Cash barley's at $3.42, feed wheat's at $3.52, and corn's trading at $3.39 per metric ton.
00:47:11.460In the milling wheat markets, December Minneapolis futures increased to $5.25 at $7.33, with local hardwood spring bids for October movement at $9.66 per bushel.
00:47:23.400In the oilseeds, nearby canola futures lost $6.30 at $7.12.90 per ton, with delivered values for October movement at $1.60.05 per bushel.
00:47:33.660In the pulse markets, nearby red lentils are holding at $0.36.5 per pound, and yellow peas are trading at $10.75 per bushel.
00:47:42.960In the cattle markets, December live cattle are up $0.15 at $1.8702 per 100 weight.
00:47:49.940For more information on grain marketing, call me at 403-394-1711.
00:47:55.620I'm Sean Smith at Marketplace Commodities, accurate real-time marketing information and pricing options.
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