Western Standard - The Western Standard Pipeline September 16, 2020

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the pipeline. This is the Western Standard's weekly live show where we read out and cover some of the biggest news stories of the week and do some analysis.

00:00:20.000 My name is Corey Morgan. I'm one of the columnists and the digital editor, sitting today with Dave Naylor, our news editor, and our Vildebrand.

00:00:30.000 And as usual, we've got a lot of good stuff to cover today. It's been a lively news week. I'll go in reverse order to where we want to start.

00:00:39.000 Aaron O'Toole seems to have worked up the West again with some comments about Energy East we should be discussing.

00:00:45.000 Jason Kenney's having a terrible time in the polls. He seems not to be winning. Alberta's love this week.

00:00:54.000 He said, Mayor Nehenichie has some serious competition for his job in City Hall as Jeremy Farkas has announced that he's going to make a mayoral run.

00:01:04.000 Can you tell us a little more about that?

00:01:08.000 Jeremy Farkas becomes the first candidate in the running for the 2000 election, civic election. It's more than a year away. It's not going to be a year October.

00:01:20.000 But Farkas threw his hat into the ring. And it will certainly stir up local politics. Now Farkas is in. The question turns to the current mayor, Nahid Nenshi, who has held the office since 2010.

00:01:36.000 Nobody knows whether he's going to run or not. And the question is, will Farkas...

00:01:43.000 Well, no, these guys have an intense dislike for each other, basically. So will Mayor Nehenichie want to finish and go riding off into the sunset knowing that if Farkas does get elected, he may tear down some of Nehenichie's...

00:01:54.000 Dave, we have no volume from Dave.

00:02:01.000 Dave, we have no volume from Dave.

00:02:03.000 Dave, Dave, we have no volume from Dave.

00:02:09.000 Farkas announced in a six-minute video, which you can find on our website at the Western Standard, talked about his family moving from Hungary, 1956, escaping the communists in Dover, and how he grew up as a forest lawn kid, like Mayor Nenshi.

00:02:30.060 And talked about becoming elected as a councillor, and how he angered his colleagues right away by turning down what he called the Golden Pension.

00:02:44.400 And he's being basically a lone voice on...

00:02:48.180 He's the only one that seems to be interested in fiscal constraint and keeping tax levels as low as possible.

00:02:56.080 So, Corey, it's a fun election anyway.

00:03:00.060 Well, he'll certainly...

00:03:12.440 I think this is probably the only kind of candidate that will beat Nenshi.

00:03:17.440 The last time they had, I think, a guy named Bill Smith, a very traditional, button-down establishment Tory.

00:03:26.480 And really, you know, Nenshi was re-elected by one of the smallest margins in quite a few decades, actually, since the 80s.

00:03:36.360 Calgary, no sitting Calgary mayor has ever been defeated in an election, though, since Ralph Klein defeated the incumbent to become mayor in the earlier 80s.

00:03:48.020 So, it's a big task to take out of Calgary mayor.

00:03:52.520 They have a pretty good re-election chance as incumbents.

00:03:57.500 Farkas, though, is in his, I think, three years so far on council, has really set himself up as essentially the leader of the opposition on the council. 0.95

00:04:07.780 He's consistently challenged and been a pain in the butt for the mayor.

00:04:14.000 He's led the minority conservative faction on the council and, I think, made that faction more conservative.

00:04:22.260 I think splitting, taking a more consistently conservative or libertarian approach on the council, kind of exposing some of the conservative and name-only guys who are sitting on there, some of which are even retiring this year.

00:04:37.160 But, you know, he's young.

00:04:39.420 He hails from the wild rose.

00:04:41.940 He is not, I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I think he's more libertarian than a traditional conservative.

00:04:48.340 I think he'll make for a very interesting run.

00:04:51.020 One of the things most people aren't that aware of, though, is that the Tory establishment in Calgary does not like this guy.

00:04:58.780 He is not their guy.

00:05:01.160 He, I think, is considered a relatively independent individual.

00:05:07.680 While he is aligned with the UCP and CPC, the establishments in those two parties have been kind of searching for their own candidate, wanting someone probably a bit more pliable.

00:05:19.780 Somebody who's not going to be their own power base that can challenge them if there's a disagreement.

00:05:26.980 That candidate might still emerge, but I think they've been afraid of having someone else.

00:05:32.820 Because Farkas, it's been pretty clear for a while, I think, that he's going to run for mayor.

00:05:36.640 And now, you know, if they put up someone else against him, they'll be accused of splitting the vote, very ironically.

00:05:42.060 So I think he's got a very strong chance.

00:05:46.160 You know, they need to have a candidate who is dynamic and aggressive and not just campaigning on being a different guy than Nenshi, as they did with Bill Smith last time.

00:05:55.760 But, you know, Farkas, he does have a reputation for maybe not getting along with council too well.

00:06:02.200 But I think that's a good thing, considering how well this council has done.

00:06:05.240 Well, it does position him as the non-establishment candidate.

00:06:10.680 As you're saying, the old guard is kind of looking for somebody they'd like, who they can mold or control.

00:06:18.840 Mayor of California, Jeremy, over this last three years to try and knock him into line, and he's just absolutely refused to.

00:06:25.340 He just digs his heels in further.

00:06:26.480 So, personally, I like seeing somebody shake it up.

00:06:29.560 And he's coming at it smart, as you said.

00:06:31.140 Now, he's the one who's jumped out.

00:06:32.360 So somebody else jumping in is going to have to justify why they're running and potentially giving the head and Nenshi another turn, because if that vote gets split, that could happen.

00:06:41.820 As well, Jeremy knows, I mean, he unseated essentially Brian Pincott, who was an established councillor who'd been in Bell and Calgary.

00:06:50.480 Pincott did end up not running in the end, but Jeremy had spent two years of door-knocking, nipping on his heels, and I think Brian knew he wasn't going to win it, so he just got while getting was good.

00:07:00.980 And that'll be interesting to see, too, is whether Mayor Nenshi wants to take the gamble and possibly lose in an election, or just say that he's going to resign with his dignity and move on.

00:07:12.180 If I was Nenshi, I would wait to see if the Tory establishment mounts its own direct candidate.

00:07:17.340 They might just figure that, well, Farkas has got a pretty good chance of winning, and if they put another guy against them, that'll just split the vote and keep Nenshi.

00:07:25.860 So maybe they will keep their candidate out of the race.

00:07:29.440 But if I was Nenshi, before announcing a decision one way or another, I would wait to see if there's going to be an establishment Tory in the race.

00:07:38.640 If so, if there's two candidates, then he's got a shot of coming up the middle and taking it.

00:07:43.840 But if he's facing, essentially, a clean race with Farkas as the only major candidate to his right, I think Nenshi would be probably well-advised to call Justin Trudeau for a Senate appointment.

00:07:56.540 Yeah, well, and it's going to make for, I mean, there's enough fireworks already, but the council this year now, with it being an election year, and those two jousting for position, at least from an observer point of view, it's going to be quite fun to watch it, if nothing else.

00:08:10.540 So getting on to the speaking of Tory establishment, we've got Aaron O'Toole, seems to have kind of worked up the West after sitting down and chatting with the Quebec Premier.

00:08:21.300 Some people are saying it's taken out of context, others are saying that's what he meant.

00:08:27.320 Perhaps, if we could expand on what's been kind of making ripples out of that.

00:08:30.800 Reminds me, Corey, of that Monty Python sketch where they're bringing out the dead, and one guy said something, I'm not dead yet.

00:08:39.800 And that's, you know, that's the energy pipeline.

00:08:43.500 TC Energy pulled the point on this back in 2017, after opposition from Quebec, and environmental groups, and the federal government putting up various roadblocks to being constructed.

00:08:58.080 And Aaron O'Toole, new leader of the Tory party, met with the Quebec Premier this week, it was his first meeting with the Prime Minister Premier, and he won with the Quebec Premier, and they talked about pipelines.

00:09:16.920 O'Toole talking about, you know, the economic necessity of them, and Francois Legault basically saying, not on my watch.

00:09:26.860 So O'Toole came out of the meeting, basically said, pipelines are important, but Energy East is dead.

00:09:33.980 That prompted Jason Kenney yesterday to basically say, no, not dead yet.

00:09:39.140 I'm not willing to give it the last rights.

00:09:42.400 He says he and the Alberta government are still committed to getting Alberta oil to Canadian tidewater.

00:09:50.640 And in his opinion, the project could still go ahead.

00:09:56.760 How?

00:09:57.420 How?

00:09:58.160 Not a clue.

00:09:58.880 Not a clue, Derek.

00:10:00.580 Yeah.

00:10:01.520 He received, you know, one angry email from someone just ranting, saying, oh, you've taken his comments that Energy East is off the table out of context.

00:10:14.180 I asked, I just responded, I said, please explain the context for me, and he just said no.

00:10:21.740 I think some people are taking this out of context.

00:10:25.360 Rachel Notley is taking it out of context.

00:10:27.700 Big surprise.

00:10:29.420 You know, she said that Erin O'Toole has killed Energy East. 1.00

00:10:35.240 Well, I don't think that the leader of the opposition has the ability to kill something with a word like this.

00:10:43.280 I don't think so.

00:10:45.040 But it's actually been dead for some time.

00:10:47.340 Energy East was killed by Justin Trudeau and Rachel Notley.

00:10:52.040 And I think it was Francois Lagoe.

00:10:55.720 Years ago.

00:10:56.780 It's been dead for years.

00:10:59.380 I mean, it's not almost dead.

00:11:01.800 It would require a Lazarus to bring it. 0.89

00:11:03.540 It would require a Lazarus moment for this thing to come back.

00:11:06.240 It's completely dead.

00:11:07.100 It's off the table.

00:11:08.200 It's not under real consideration right now.

00:11:11.200 It's been dead for a long time because of political pressure from the Quebec premier, from the federal prime minister, and from the then premier of Alberta, who said absolutely nothing about it at the time.

00:11:22.760 That being said, I think this is O'Toole's way.

00:11:26.400 O'Toole has, you know, when he was running for leader, has been pretty clear.

00:11:30.460 He's pro-pipeline, pro-energy, all of these things.

00:11:32.980 But he's also said that he won't force pipelines through provinces.

00:11:36.980 Well, that's kind of the point of having a federal government, is that there should be a federal government to do national things like infrastructure and trade across provincial boundaries and provinces to do things directly.

00:11:47.720 And if the federal government can't do that, there is no point of having a federal government.

00:11:52.280 There is no point of having an Ottawa if it can't enforce national economic union. 0.99

00:11:58.500 That's the whole point of the damn thing. 0.98

00:12:00.660 But Aaron O'Toole said he's not going to force it on provinces. 0.99

00:12:04.060 And after meeting with Francois Legault, premier of Quebec, he said that Legault says no, so I guess it's off the table.

00:12:13.000 Now, this isn't his way of saying this wasn't Aaron O'Toole saying that he is taking it off the table, but that if Quebec says it's off the table, then it's it's just not going to go anywhere.

00:12:23.260 But those comments have been met with quite a backlash in Alberta and in Saskatchewan.

00:12:30.120 A lot of people obviously not very pleased about it and saying that it pretends to the inevitability of now the Conservatives taking the West for granted and focusing on winning votes in Ontario and Quebec.

00:12:45.320 Well, yeah, as in Alberta myself, that infuriates me.

00:12:49.580 It's the same old thing.

00:12:51.100 So they are taking us for granted and potentially throwing us under the bus in order to win Ontario and Quebec, which, well, the way Confederation works, that's the only way you are going to get a majority government.

00:13:02.400 And perhaps it's not Energy East in particular, but what if there's another pipeline down the road?

00:13:06.260 I mean, we really do want to get a pipeline to Tidewater in the East, or we've always wanted to.

00:13:10.240 But if it turns out that that call is up to the Quebec Premier of the time at any given time, again, well, what's the point of Confederation?

00:13:16.120 I'd rather negotiate as a national leader to national leader with Quebec than to have some milk toast federal tour giving us lip service and then just capitulating to Quebec whenever they get their back up and they're not.

00:13:27.600 That's me.

00:13:29.400 That's been me for quite some time.

00:13:30.820 So somebody else who's having a heck of a hard time, too, though, winning Albertans' hearts is our Premier right now.

00:13:37.560 That poll that came out, the latest one, and this wasn't just Jason Kenney's approval numbers, as we saw recently.

00:13:43.860 These are the party numbers.

00:13:45.260 These are who would you vote for tomorrow if an election was held.

00:13:48.880 And it has Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley neck and neck, along with some pricing numbers of where his force is draining.

00:13:57.960 Yeah, Corey, it takes a lot to shock me.

00:14:02.140 But when I saw the results of this Leger poll, I was shocked.

00:14:08.180 Tory popularity in Alberta has plummeted.

00:14:11.100 They are now tied with the NDP at 38 percent, you know, after having a 17, 18, 19 point lead just a few months ago.

00:14:20.740 So shockingly to me, the NDP is even ahead in Calgary.

00:14:26.580 They're way ahead in Edmonton, but that's what you would expect.

00:14:29.760 But the NDP is actually currently leading the UCP in Calgary.

00:14:33.540 The only places that the UCP are actually doing fairly well is in the rural areas.

00:14:39.260 So, yeah, I mean, obviously we're a long, long way from an election, but, Derek, these numbers have to be a wake-up call for Kenney.

00:14:51.200 Yeah, it's – they should be extremely alarming.

00:14:55.860 38 percent tie.

00:14:58.060 It depends.

00:14:59.040 The NDP vote is not very efficient.

00:15:00.920 It's heavily concentrated in Edmonton.

00:15:03.400 And then within Calgary, it's heavily concentrated downtown.

00:15:06.360 So I'm not convinced that the NDP could necessarily pull out government from this, but it would – certainly the UCP would lose a ton of seats.

00:15:14.920 You know, they're down from – they got 55 percent of the vote in the provincial election.

00:15:18.760 That is a massive, massive landslide.

00:15:22.080 That means they're down 17 points of the general voters.

00:15:27.500 That is hemorrhaging.

00:15:28.660 They've lost a third or more of their vote right now.

00:15:31.500 I actually think they might be lower than this, though, because this is a bizarre poll.

00:15:35.600 It asked only five options.

00:15:39.520 It asked the United Conservative, NDP, Alberta Party, Alberta Independence Party, and then Other Party.

00:15:44.840 Now, normally, a good pollster, when Other Party gets above 2 or 3 percent, because there's normally not – you know, those normally are for very small fringe parties.

00:15:55.220 If Other gets above 2 or 3 percent, they normally ask – they try to figure out what is that Other.

00:16:01.440 Well, Other is 8 percent here.

00:16:03.940 8 percent.

00:16:04.560 You've got Alberta Party 9, Alberta Independence Party 7, and Other Party is 8.

00:16:10.960 8 is pretty damn big.

00:16:14.340 8 percent of the vote normally gets you four seats in an election – three or four seats in an election in Alberta.

00:16:22.320 That's three or four seats that the pollsters aren't even trying to figure out.

00:16:26.140 So is that the Liberals?

00:16:27.600 Is that the Wild Rose Independence Party?

00:16:29.220 And normally, if you have just Other listed, and people would otherwise want Other, they still won't even press Other when they get the phone call for the poll.

00:16:40.040 They'll just go with their next favorite.

00:16:41.760 So if you're, say, a Wild Rose Independence Party supporter, and they don't even list the Wild Rose Independence Party, chances are you'll probably just say UCP because whatever, that's the only thing they're giving on the poll that's even vaguely in your area.

00:16:55.100 Or if you're a Liberal supporter, and Liberal isn't even listed as an option, you might just hit NDP because that's the only thing that's listed there.

00:17:03.580 So they don't list the Liberal Party, which – so that's probably inflating the NDP numbers a bit here.

00:17:08.980 The Liberal Party normally does 6% to 8% in polls.

00:17:14.220 They just don't have enough candidates to actually capture those votes in elections, but at least in polls, they're normally 6% to 8% right now.

00:17:20.160 They also don't have Wild Rose Independence Party, which we had at, I believe, 10% when we polled on this a few months ago before that party was even created.

00:17:28.840 I would suspect it's higher now with a leader and actually having them gotten a little bit of profile.

00:17:33.460 So chances are the UCP numbers and the NDP numbers are both smaller than what this poll is showing.

00:17:40.840 So I'm going to try and scrounge up – if anybody listening right now would like to see a good poll listing a lot more options,

00:17:47.340 please consider going to westerncenteredonline.com, make a donation, and you can attach just a little note to it that that's supposed to go towards getting a poll done.

00:17:56.420 Western Standard wants to get a good quality poll done on this with more options and get a really more accurate lay of the land on here.

00:18:04.720 But either way, this does show the continuing trend that UCP support is steadily and surely eroding from where it was in the last election.

00:18:14.260 But I know I've talked to people in that caucus, and they get presented with polls.

00:18:20.100 And it was the same thing when I was in the Wild Rose.

00:18:21.800 The leadership of the party present me with polls, and they're always far better than what is in the public

00:18:26.680 because what you want to do is keep your caucus happy, make sure they're not worried, thinking about doing something crazy with the leader.

00:18:33.780 And so the UCP caucus is being told – similarly, I was told in Wild Rose – everything is fine.

00:18:39.680 Don't believe these polls.

00:18:40.660 We're doing great.

00:18:41.440 The premier is loved.

00:18:42.260 The party is popular.

00:18:43.100 Don't worry about anything.

00:18:46.080 The rookies are probably more likely to believe that than the older guys.

00:18:50.060 But, you know, polls do – low polls do tend to affect the way parties govern.

00:18:57.960 And this is going to start to affect the Tories at some point in what they're doing.

00:19:02.600 Well, they've got to start looking at where they're leading.

00:19:05.220 I mean, as you said, with those two polls, something that's been interesting is the independence option –

00:19:09.140 people aren't even necessarily voting for a party.

00:19:10.740 They're just voting for any party that's presenting that.

00:19:13.100 I mean, the Alberta Independence Party, again, to be blunt, has been in basically disarray and, you know, unseen.

00:19:19.320 I mean, they're trying.

00:19:19.940 There's a few individuals making noises on social media, and I imagine they're trying to do some ground organization.

00:19:25.160 The Wilder's Independence Party now has jumped onto the scene, but they're still, of course, just getting rolling.

00:19:30.460 Paul Hinman's been out pounding the pavement and doing a lot of meetings with people as much as he can.

00:19:35.620 But I just would look at that and think that at least a good 10%, 12% of what's leading from the UCP is towards regionalist and independence-leading parties.

00:19:46.880 You know, when Kenny's appearing to capitulate to Ottawa in his soft sell over there, Albertans are getting tired of him.

00:19:53.420 Is he going to start finally digging his heels in, not just commissioning more reports, he just seemed to drag on and actually start standing up for us?

00:20:01.760 Derek, do you think Rachel Notley's sitting there rubbing her, saying this is the start of vote splitting on the right wing, 0.92

00:20:09.100 and we're going to get up – we're going to go through the middle and become government again next election?

00:20:15.580 Possibly. I mean, she's sticking around for a reason.

00:20:19.720 Either she thinks she can be premier again, or it's a pretty good job.

00:20:24.780 You know, the NDP is never really expected to win outside of BC.

00:20:28.760 So, you know, she can get a leader of the opposition, pretty good salary, public respectability, it's not a bad job. 0.93

00:20:37.860 The numbers don't really show, though, that there is really any path to victory for the NDP.

00:20:43.160 When they won in 2015, it was very much an anomaly.

00:20:47.620 There were people in rural Alberta who voted for them, not because they were socialists,

00:20:50.880 but because they want to get rid of the old Tories, and the Wild Roads have been too damaged from the floor crossing just a few months earlier.

00:20:58.240 And Brian Jean had been on the job for about one week.

00:21:01.020 So the NDP's support is highly, highly concentrated in Edmonton.

00:21:07.720 With these kinds of numbers, the NDP would win back every single seat in Edmonton, including the one single Tory seat within the city proper.

00:21:17.500 It would probably win some of the surrounding constituencies outside of Edmonton proper, but in the greater area.

00:21:22.920 The Sherwood Parks, St. Albert's, things like that.

00:21:25.840 And they would probably win, you know, a reasonable handful of seats, beginning in the centre of Calgary, where they've got three seats, and growing outwards, and in northeast Calgary.

00:21:36.840 That, in a best-case scenario for the NDP, could get them to a plurality, the most seats, but not a majority.

00:21:45.300 Andrew Scheer was lying to people when he said the party with the most seats gets to be the government.

00:21:49.380 That's not true. He knew it was not true.

00:21:51.860 Anyone who understands our system knows that's not true.

00:21:54.240 The party that commends the confidence of the House is the government.

00:21:57.140 And so if there was, you know, something, unless, say, the Liberals, bizarrely, held the balance of power, it's highly unlikely that any of the smaller parties in Alberta, which are primarily found on the right, it's highly, highly unlikely that any of them would ever support an NDP government.

00:22:14.980 The NDP have to win a majority to be government in Alberta.

00:22:17.740 I don't think they have a real possibility of ever being a minority government.

00:22:21.280 And the numbers just show they've got no support in rural Alberta.

00:22:25.640 They are just dead there.

00:22:27.440 They salted the earth with Bill 6 and carbon taxes and things like that.

00:22:33.420 They really have only room to grow in Calgary.

00:22:36.020 And even then, I don't think it gets them to a majority without a single seat in rural Alberta.

00:22:40.640 But either way, it is still good news for the NDP.

00:22:43.240 They do pick up seats.

00:22:44.820 There is the possibility of depriving the UCP of their majority.

00:22:47.700 But leftists should be very careful about what they wish for, because if there is a minority government led by the Tories, the Tories are forced into a minority, and the balance of power is held by something like the new Wild Rose, that government would probably be an awful lot more to the right than the current Tories are right now.

00:23:07.140 Just as Trudeau is more to the left in minority government relying on the federal NDP than he is as a majority.

00:23:12.960 Yeah, well, and Albertans are pretty volatile, to be blunt, I think, crabby right now.

00:23:22.440 So somebody better inspire them pretty soon, or we're really going to see these polls, I think, bounce around as they look for somebody who they feel is going to represent them and stand up for them.

00:23:31.560 Because I don't, I can't look out there and feel really inspired with a whole bunch.

00:23:35.120 I mean, I know where I'd vote today, but nobody's really got me excited, and that's trouble.

00:23:39.020 So I'm usually a pretty partisan person.

00:23:41.900 So what else have we got to look forward to in this week?

00:23:45.700 Anything outstanding or breaking, Dave?

00:23:48.000 Well, obviously next week's going to be the big one with the return to Parliament.

00:23:52.580 There's going to be an economic update by the Trudeau government, followed by each.

00:23:58.500 Everybody out west is focused on reports of a second carbon tax that will be announced in the throne speech.

00:24:06.620 That's going to raise the cost of living for all of us, from groceries to the price of gas at the neighbourhood station.

00:24:15.420 And once that is announced, there will be a vote in the House, and if it's not passed, the government will collapse.

00:24:24.540 And at this point next week, we're going to have an election.

00:24:28.560 It all depends on where, I guess, the NDP and the bloc are going to throw their lot in.

00:24:33.460 So lots to consider in the coming days, Corey.

00:24:38.240 And nobody knows.

00:24:52.500 Canadians do not want to go to the polls during COVID.

00:24:56.580 Repeated polls have shown that.

00:24:58.740 But out here, we've got John Horgan considering going to the polls, too, and trying to get a majority government there.

00:25:09.920 So, yeah, it's crazy times.

00:25:12.680 And I'm not sure, does anybody know what's going through Justin Trudeau's mind?

00:25:16.900 I don't think so.

00:25:17.440 I'm not sure if there's anything going through his mind.

00:25:20.060 Exactly.

00:25:21.980 So, yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

00:25:25.400 Well, I'll hand it off to you to close it off there and maybe remind people of where they can subscribe so we can keep them up to date and let them know what's in there.

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00:26:42.780 So please try to do your part.

00:26:46.260 You know, things are tight.

00:26:47.600 But, you know, nothing's free here.

00:26:50.220 And we're doing our best to provide you with independent media for Western Canadians.

00:26:57.700 Providing you with a very different perspective than what you're getting from most of our competitors.

00:27:01.600 So thank you all very much for watching.

00:27:03.800 Corey and Dave, thanks for coming on today.

00:27:06.160 And we'll probably be back soon.

00:27:08.120 We're going to probably start doing more episodes, one-off interviews with people throughout the week.

00:27:12.360 But thank you very much.

00:27:13.540 God bless.

00:27:14.040 God bless.

00:27:14.080 God bless.

00:27:14.100 God bless.

00:27:20.220 God bless.

Western Standard - September 17, 2020

The Western Standard Pipeline September 16, 2020

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