Western Standard - Trudeau out. Trump in？

00:00:00.000 Good day. Today is December 18th, 2024. I'm Derek Fildebrandt, publisher of the Western

00:00:28.900 standard and you're watching the pipeline this will be our last episode before the christmas break

00:00:35.220 uh but don't worry we'll be right back to you early in the new year i'm joined as always by

00:00:40.500 my colleagues and good friends western standard opinion editor nigel henniford it's good to be

00:00:45.060 here and western standard senior alberta colmas cory morgan happy holidays uh geez uh you know

00:00:53.940 know we do three topics we're just doing two today because there's just uh has there been

00:00:58.980 anything in the news can't think of a darn thing you have to turn it on wait a minute didn't miss

00:01:05.540 did trudeau resign no no must be thinking trudeau's government's in complete meltdown crisis and

00:01:11.780 trump is talking about annex in canada maybe we should talk about those things

00:01:16.260 well if we ran out of things rachel gilmore got fired again too oh you know what at least someone 1.00

00:01:20.900 did lose a job okay well uh that's what we'll be talking about um donald trump

00:01:29.540 beginning as just i could begin over dinner at mar-a-lago with justin trudeau

00:01:33.940 ribbing him about uh kind of becoming the 51st state and he can be his governor

00:01:39.700 that is seemingly escalated is this a thing is this actually a thing or is this trump's just

00:01:45.940 bullshitting. He's a bullshitter. And he likes to troll. But I'm starting to wonder now.

00:01:53.220 I got an eyebrow up. So we're going to talk about is, is Donald Trump just joking about

00:02:00.640 Canada joining the United States? Can't believe I'm even saying it. We're going to talk about

00:02:06.160 it like it's even a half serious idea. But before that, we're going to talk about Justin

00:02:12.400 Trudeau on death watch. His prime ministership has entered its final terminal phase. He is sitting

00:02:21.380 in hospice at this point. The government is circling the drain. I don't know how many more

00:02:27.460 metaphors I could fit into this, but each of them is a pleasant thought at this time. It began

00:02:33.020 early Monday morning. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, his right-hand

00:02:41.480 woman abruptly and shockingly tendered her resignation. You all know, everyone already

00:02:49.340 knows the story by now, so just leave it at some absolutely gargantuan political miscalculations

00:02:56.820 and arrogance from Justin Trudeau has led to this point. And, you know, at this point,

00:03:04.980 you're wondering if he can last longer than a head of lettuce.

00:03:11.220 Is that what that lettuce is doing in our canteen? It is. Okay. It is. I haven't decided if we do

00:03:16.100 a live stream with it yet, but we have a fresh head of lettuce in there with, you know, some

00:03:20.420 tomato eyes and a pepper mouth. That is what it is doing there, staring at you. I'll start with you,

00:03:28.740 Nigel. Trudeau has had some disasters before. He has had career ending scandals that would end

00:03:37.980 anyone's career. Blackface, SNC-Lavalin, and Jody Wilson-Raybould, Aga Khan.

00:03:52.020 The list is so long, and he always survives.

00:03:58.740 Possibly because he just holds on long enough until Canadians see a squirrel and focus on something else.

00:04:06.140 And we don't forget about it, but enough Canadians seem to forget about it.

00:04:11.100 And he just goes on.

00:04:13.440 Is he going to survive?

00:04:15.280 And I'm not talking about the general election.

00:04:16.680 We already know he's done.

00:04:18.760 The ballots have effectively already been counted.

00:04:21.140 He is done.

00:04:22.000 He is going to be out of power, and he's going to be out of power in a spectacular way, at a minimum, by the next election.

00:04:27.160 can he survive does justin trudeau make it to the election depends really when the election

00:04:36.120 comes and if you were to let's just sort of back up to october they just lost a safe seat in

00:04:43.660 montreal just lost another one in bc on monday same day as all this was happening so you have

00:04:50.700 us a parliamentary session book ended as somebody said uh by election losses now in the first one

00:04:59.420 there were people in the party starting to question his leadership and uh

00:05:06.540 i think they may have been able to get 20 or 30 mps liberal mps to say mr trudeau

00:05:15.020 it's time to consider your future outside the liberal party so um that number he managed to

00:05:24.300 just dismiss and carry on now the inside scoop is that it's more like half his caucus

00:05:31.420 are calling for him to resign now they have no mechanism to do it there isn't one uh no

00:05:38.620 the constitutionally can but it's they didn't take the reasonable route of invoking the reform act

00:05:44.300 They took away their easiest route, but they can constitutionally remove them.

00:05:50.300 It's just a lot more bloody.

00:05:52.980 I'm not sure any of them realize that that piece of British tradition is still available to them.

00:05:58.700 Certainly the charter route, which the Conservatives adopted, the NDP adopted,

00:06:03.200 which allows the caucus to get together and say we've had enough of these guys or this guy,

00:06:09.460 that's not available.

00:06:11.880 So, the question comes, can he stand being faced in some sort of quarantine

00:06:19.900 where nobody answers his phone calls, nobody speaks to him, nobody smiles at him,

00:06:26.080 nobody claps when he gets up to answer questions and ribbing from Pierre Poulyev,

00:06:33.880 basically being sent to Coventry, as we used to say.

00:06:36.860 And at any rate, that is the most uncomfortable situation to be in.

00:06:43.280 No government business gets done, not that there's much getting done anyway.

00:06:47.740 And it just becomes a matter of waiting for Mr. Singh to say,

00:06:52.060 all right, I've had enough of being teased about keeping this guy in power.

00:06:57.780 When the budget comes up, I'm going to vote no, and then it'll all be over.

00:07:02.740 So I think that unless Mr. Singh has got a different agenda, and a highly cynical one, this can't go on past the next budget.

00:07:14.240 But it could go on that long, especially if he were to prorogue, in which case he wouldn't have to show up and he wouldn't have to look at these people or listen to them.

00:07:22.300 So, Corey, so Jagmeet Singh has finally, he ripped up the agreement, remember, he ripped it up, he said, in the fall when he realized that being tethered to this corpse was very, perhaps bad for his political prospects.

00:07:38.600 He ripped it up, but then continued to vote along, vote confidence in the Trudeau government.

00:07:43.440 And the day of Christian Freeland's resignation, he comes out and says, now I'm serious.

00:07:51.080 Justin Trudeau should resign.

00:07:54.020 He seemingly did not predict what the very first question and every single subsequent question to that would be, which is, well, are you going to vote non-confidence in him now?

00:08:02.820 And it was like watching a Vietnamese torture chamber.

00:08:08.160 They're pulling his nails back, and he still won't say, I'll vote non-confidence in him.

00:08:11.680 They sent one of his, I think their house, the NDP house leader, Peter Julian, who, after much fingernail prying, said, well, you know, if Trudeau is still prime minister and hasn't resigned, and we're still in this bad situation by, I don't know, February or March, then all options are on the table.

00:08:36.260 Well, what happens in February or March?

00:08:39.540 There seems to be some sort of pension change, if I recall.

00:08:42.160 What is it that happens in February and March?

00:08:45.000 February the 25th, I think, isn't it?

00:08:46.740 Yeah.

00:08:47.620 Right between February and March, Jagmeet Singh's pension vests,

00:08:51.340 and he becomes eligible for that lifetime pot of money.

00:08:55.600 I mean, he is pretty much admitting it at this point.

00:08:58.600 He is not going to bring down the Trudeau government until he gets his pension.

00:09:03.440 I actually think we should just change the pension rules.

00:09:05.820 You get a pension no matter how long you serve,

00:09:07.380 because you just get it gets bigger the longer you serve just make everyone instantly vest

00:09:11.940 because i mean this kind of stuff has played a role in the past but it hasn't been so naked and

00:09:17.700 now just now jake meeting is admitting it so i don't i don't think jake meeting is actually

00:09:23.140 going to bring down this government until his pension vests uh but it seems to me um

00:09:29.940 regardless of what happens resign or stay uh corey his best prospect is probably to just

00:09:35.940 prorogues at this point prorogues for those of you who don't speak parliamentaries at home

00:09:41.940 is just essentially it suspends parliament everything ends committees and they can't

00:09:46.660 investigate anything it's just a hard reboot it's a hard and all bills restart so if you prorogues

00:09:53.540 that means parliament's actually not going to be coming back at any time it's just it's a play

00:09:57.220 it's a play for time um if he's going to resign and have a leadership race um to replace him

00:10:03.460 he's got a prorogue or if he doesn't want to get defeated immediately he's got a prorogue what's

00:10:11.320 true to do here I don't know anymore I don't I mean he I question his sanity to a degree I really

00:10:19.240 do I think the pressure's gotten to me he's not thinking rationally he's not acting rationally

00:10:23.140 I really thought when all the year-end interviews were canceled okay here we go because if you were

00:10:28.480 trying to hold on for your political life well here's your opportunity to give your heartfelt

00:10:32.320 plea to everybody on why you're going to be better. And you got rid of those. But then I watched him

00:10:36.720 at the Christmas party for caucus. And he was just all smiles and pretending nothing happened.

00:10:43.040 I, if he leaves, it's not going to be on his own accord. He has to be kicked out. His caucus has

00:10:49.360 to do something as bloody as it may be. And I think they're finally starting to realize it.

00:10:53.960 Like with Freeland, this was his most loyal supporter. He had not only tried to humiliate

00:11:00.880 her with a ridiculous firing and then expecting her to still present his, as you've said, a steaming

00:11:07.260 pile of a budget before leaving. So make you wear all that crap that you took on on my behalf. 1.00

00:11:12.740 And then I'm going to still have you fired. It also signals to every caucus member and every 0.66

00:11:17.800 cabinet member, he thinks nothing of you. He doesn't care about your loyalty. He will not

00:11:21.560 reward you. He doesn't appreciate your loyalty. If he will do that to her, he will do that to any

00:11:26.820 of you. He is not a man worth following. He is not a man who values your effort, your time,

00:11:32.020 your sacrifice. They've got to be having those discussions now and saying, this is it. This

00:11:36.060 has got to stop. Well, I think they've been having those discussions for a long time,

00:11:39.800 Corey. Oh, certainly. But this displayed it in full length. I mean, he didn't even meet her face

00:11:45.280 to face. He did it over Zoom. They were in the same city. Like that's cowardice and disrespect

00:11:49.760 of a level that is beyond I even thought he was capable of. I mean, you'd think he sent a text

00:11:54.320 Yeah. No, but I mean, what would be the mechanism by which they would, short of 150 MPs walking into his office and saying, you've got to go?

00:12:06.580 Yeah, because they didn't sign on to the Reform Act. So the easy route is not immediately available.

00:12:11.340 But I mean, they can, as you kind of said earlier, he can be neutered.

00:12:15.040 You know, you can, you can.

00:12:18.480 There is a way. And so the media has been totally missing this.

00:12:21.440 Now, there's generally two ways the leader of a party is removed, federally and to an extent provincially.

00:12:29.260 One is the way, say, Jason Kenney was removed, a vote by the members.

00:12:32.980 But that's often not available.

00:12:35.820 The Liberal Party's constitution, the members don't even get to vote on removing the leader of the party if the leader of the party is the head of the government.

00:12:43.840 They only get to vote if they're in opposition.

00:12:48.400 That's not a very good idea.

00:12:49.980 There needs to be a peaceful and relatively bloodless way to remove a party leader by the grassroots.

00:12:54.580 And it also needs to be a way to remove a leader at the caucus level, which is the root of responsible government in the Westminster parliamentary system.

00:13:04.220 The leader of a government or the leader of the government has to have the confidence of the House and of the governing caucus.

00:13:12.720 Opposition caucuses can do this, too.

00:13:14.180 So we talked about the Reform Act piece of legislation that merely codified powers that MPs have always had as long as there's been a House of Commons in old England.

00:13:25.560 And but they still have the power to do this.

00:13:29.160 And the media, I think, has been completely missing the point on this.

00:13:32.740 It's more complicated. It's a lot more bloody because the liberals were too cowardly to vote to give themselves this power after the last election.

00:13:40.000 Every caucus votes on it after the election. They were too cowardly to do it.

00:13:43.240 They're on Team Trudeau, not Team Canada or Team Liberal.

00:13:48.340 But there is a way to do it, and that would be to get a letter or, for lack of a better term, a petition signed by a majority of the governing Liberal caucus.

00:14:00.440 And it would have to state in that letter that they've lost confidence in the prime minister.

00:14:05.620 And here is a nominated successor.

00:14:08.240 That could be an interim person, and then they could hold a leadership race.

00:14:11.240 But here is a nominated successor. Here is, I don't know, Stephen Gilbeau. Stephen Gilbeau will be an interim prime minister, and he has the support of a majority of the caucus.

00:14:22.600 If they take that to the Governor-General, the Governor-General would at least have to give it serious weight to appoint that new Prime Minister, removing Justin Trudeau, or else go to Justin Trudeau and say, you need to immediately test the confidence of the House of Commons or dissolve Parliament.

00:14:43.760 Those are your options.

00:14:45.200 That is the way the Liberals could do it.

00:14:46.820 Justin Trudeau's way around it would be able to say, as soon as I smell anyone signing that letter, I'm calling an election.

00:14:53.560 And he retains that right.

00:14:56.000 Either way, there's no good options for any Liberals, Trudeau, Freeland, backbenchers.

00:15:00.740 They're all screwed no matter what they do because they waited too long.

00:15:03.160 But it is not true that the Liberal caucus has no way to remove him.

00:15:06.740 That is the way to do it.

00:15:08.740 Just Justin Trudeau retains the right to press the big red button and nuke them all.

00:15:12.360 Yeah. Well, I mean, if I were in his shoes, you know, assuming even that vanity and self-interest and whatnot, the closest I could see him coming out of this with a shred of dignity and pride would be maybe to negotiate with them and say, fine, I'm going to do it.

00:15:25.440 But I want to stay on until the new leader. Then you get to point your buddies, do your things, you know, have your patronage and step out.

00:15:32.260 But again, I don't think he's rational anymore. I don't think he sees that out as a reason.

00:15:38.200 Well, to the point about pride, this is really, you're zeroing in on the heart of the problem.

00:15:44.560 Mr. Trudeau does not see himself as a liberal.

00:15:47.920 As far as he's concerned, this is a Trudeau government.

00:15:50.900 It is not a liberal government.

00:15:53.000 He is not invested in the history and the future of a party.

00:15:57.520 So, in actual fact, he could be evicted from office and walk out of there still with his head high,

00:16:04.500 thinking, they weren't worthy of me.

00:16:06.460 I can believe that.

00:16:08.200 Because he has such an incredible sense.

00:16:10.180 Like, we don't agree with his mission, which is all about changing the nature of Canada and climate change

00:16:15.860 and a number of things that go into at another time.

00:16:19.140 But that's where his head is at.

00:16:20.760 He thinks he's the hero here.

00:16:23.060 And finally, the people have just shown their cowardice.

00:16:30.600 Didn't know what they're good for them.

00:16:31.780 And, you know, if he leaves, he leaves a destruction.

00:16:36.500 You know, but that's I think that's the nature of the man.

00:16:43.380 Yeah, it's as good as an explanation as I can see.

00:16:45.800 Like I said, that's been the hard part I've been having with this this last couple of days is I keep trying to apply reason where reason isn't existing.

00:16:54.960 And so I'm never going to find a satisfactory conclusion.

00:16:58.320 I'm never going to be able to predict what this guy is going to do because I can't put myself into that mind.

00:17:04.020 I can put myself into the mind of a leftist and so on, assuming that they're still rational.

00:17:08.760 But he just doesn't seem to be behaving.

00:17:10.460 Well, just a moment ago, you actually stole my parting shot when you made the remark about how he dismissed Christia Freeland.

00:17:21.820 That's all right. I'll think of another one.

00:17:24.020 But, I mean, the fact of the matter is that that tells you that he lacks basic judgment.

00:17:29.900 because you just don't give somebody a job to do on monday and say by the way once you're done

00:17:36.940 you're fired what did he think you know i think was um robin urbach had the best analogy that

00:17:44.380 uh you know it's like when you break up with someone let's say can you please still come to

00:17:48.520 christmas dinner and act normal in front of the family yeah then you know then we'll part ways but

00:17:52.940 you got to come and act normal in front of the family in the meantime and she wasn't willing to

00:17:56.500 eat that turd sandwich uh i'll just come back this thing just just a little bit i think at this point

00:18:02.360 singh has removed himself from the calculation i there is a very very good chance singh will never

00:18:09.540 actually have voted non-confidence in justin trudeau once for this iteration of this entire

00:18:14.580 parliament because i think there's a good chance trudeau is just going to prorogue he has to prorogue

00:18:22.120 But then again, we come against the budget.

00:18:24.400 We might thankfully get an election before October next year, the scheduled election date, if this was a majority government.

00:18:32.680 Well, the first thing after prorogation is a speech from the throne, which is a confidence.

00:18:37.140 Yeah, but you can prorogue for a long time.

00:18:38.620 Yeah, you can keep it up for quite a long time.

00:18:42.940 You'd see marching on the hill, I think, finally, if he tried to drag it beyond spring.

00:18:47.560 Yeah, but at that point, no one could vote non-confidence.

00:18:50.980 His own caucus can't really vote non-confidence. Singh can't vote non-confidence. And I don't think Singh will. And actually, I think this is what Singh wants. Singh doesn't want to have to stand up again when the House would come back in late January and continue to vote confidence in Trudeau even now when his own caucus has lost confidence in him effectively.

00:19:11.280 He doesn't want to have to do that.

00:19:13.220 Trudeau will be doing Singh a favor for his pension if he prorogues,

00:19:17.220 because then Singh doesn't have to stand up every day and say,

00:19:20.720 Trudeau should resign, but I'm going to vote to keep him in office.

00:19:23.340 Well, it goes beyond a pension, I think, too.

00:19:25.060 I mean, I know that bugs Singh the most when people point it out,

00:19:27.120 but he also drives a Maserati and wears a watch that's worth a year's salary for most of us.

00:19:31.560 Yeah, but it's a nice chunk of cash for the rest of his life.

00:19:34.680 It certainly is.

00:19:35.780 But I mean, it also is his party's broke, and they're low in the polls.

00:19:39.220 I mean, if he was, you know, if their party had a couple million in the bank and they were sitting up looking like they're going to win a bunch of seats, he'd be willing to go.

00:19:47.740 Because even then, then you're thinking you're going to renew his own seat.

00:19:50.420 Exactly. So there's more to it than just the pension.

00:19:53.440 They're facing just as much obliteration as the liberals if they go to the polls.

00:19:57.640 How do you run a campaign on 200,000 bucks?

00:19:59.960 It's not going to go well for him.

00:20:02.480 Well, you have to do what the liberal government would do is borrow money.

00:20:05.620 Yeah, they just paid off their debt for the last election.

00:20:07.820 Well, let's turn to some of the fallout from this whole Shaisa show.

00:20:14.700 Some of it's actually been pretty good.

00:20:17.940 So just yesterday, word came in that the Liberals, out of nowhere it seems, gave up on their emissions cap.

00:20:26.360 The emissions cap in the electricity grid, you know, I think they were, you know, they've been trying to get all the,

00:20:32.720 heard the cats of the premiers together for a team candidate approach.

00:20:36.100 And then you've got Daniel Smith and Scott Moe sitting at the table.

00:20:40.060 The first word's out of their mouth is, F you.

00:20:42.800 You're screwing us worse than Donald Trump ever could.

00:20:45.740 We're not on your team.

00:20:46.720 We're not going to pull your chestnuts out of the fire.

00:20:49.520 Put some cash on the table.

00:20:51.120 We need some table stakes here. 1.00

00:20:52.160 We need to see you're serious before we're going to get on board.

00:20:55.840 And I liken this to, I think, I don't know who I was talking with yesterday on the news

00:21:00.720 about it, but this is a hostage negotiation.

00:21:03.080 So when someone's got a bunch of hostages, the hostage negotiator from the FBI comes out and says, OK, well, before we negotiate, you've got to release one hostage.

00:21:12.540 Just go, you're serious, go a little goodwill.

00:21:15.860 Now, liberals still have a ton of hostages on Alberta, a ton of Alberta hostages.

00:21:20.080 But they released the hostage yesterday in lifting the emissions cap.

00:21:24.860 I think that comes from a combination of the crisis facing the government from the pending Trump tariffs and the meltdown of this government that they need to buy some breathing room from two premiers who are ready to cut this government's throat.

00:21:38.220 At the same time, I think there could be political follow-up in this, because I know one guy who's probably not very happy, and that's Stephen Gilbeau, who is, I mean, he's loony.

00:21:49.460 He's totally loony tunes, but to his credit, in a weird way, he is a principled politician in that he actually believes what he's doing.

00:21:56.540 He's not just there for a pension.

00:21:58.980 That guy, I trust him.

00:22:01.420 I believe him when he says he thinks the world ends if he doesn't tax my drive to work in the morning.

00:22:07.240 I think he generally believes that.

00:22:09.240 His emissions cap was dearly important to him.

00:22:13.920 This is a pretty big climb down for the government, Corey.

00:22:17.280 Oh, yeah, the green Jesus is going to be very upset.

00:22:19.720 I mean, as you said, he's a true believer.

00:22:21.740 He's an ideologue.

00:22:23.540 The pragmatism on the part of the government, yeah, they're scrambling.

00:22:25.980 They've got fires in every direction.

00:22:28.160 If they can at least just pacify a couple of premiers, it's a couple less things on their plate while they try to figure out what the heck they're doing on anything else.

00:22:34.240 but then infuriating a loyalist like Gilboa could also backfire on them.

00:22:38.520 You know, this is an ideologue.

00:22:39.940 He doesn't care about the pension.

00:22:41.040 He doesn't care about staying in longer.

00:22:42.720 And that's all Trudeau needs is Gilboa now turning on him,

00:22:45.860 which potentially could happen.

00:22:47.180 What do you make of the fact that it was Wilkinson,

00:22:49.200 the Intercam minister, who actually came out and made the announcement?

00:22:52.820 Well, it's because, of course, there's no way Gilboa was going to do it.

00:22:56.280 So I guess the question is, does Gilboa go next?

00:22:58.760 So as soon as I heard this, my first thought was, ooh, Gilboa could go.

00:23:03.660 But I haven't heard it, but in our newsroom, I was told that Gilbo has been on the radio saying, oh, well, you know, I guess.

00:23:14.560 But is his pension best?

00:23:16.440 I think he's a good question.

00:23:17.820 He's been in a while.

00:23:19.320 No, but he wasn't from, he didn't come in for his original majority.

00:23:22.460 He was recruited later on.

00:23:24.320 I'm not sure.

00:23:26.020 Now, he has a better chance of keeping his seat than even J.B.

00:23:28.600 He's an island of Montreal liberal.

00:23:30.540 If you're one of the ten.

00:23:31.240 That is, if the Liberals have 10 seats left in Canada, seven of them will be on the island.

00:23:37.760 Now, his seat is probably still, like, he's supposed to be in a seat that is just not even in contention.

00:23:43.300 It will be in contention.

00:23:44.280 He could lose his seat.

00:23:45.460 The Liberals are looking at a 1993 Kim Campbell-style apocalypse.

00:23:51.780 But there'll be a few.

00:23:52.600 He might be.

00:23:53.440 But also, who wants to serve at that point?

00:23:55.620 I remember after the 2015 election in Alberta, the poor PC sitting in the corner reduced to a small third place.

00:24:03.020 God, they looked miserable.

00:24:04.740 Now, there was still a path, though, because eventually we united those parties with Wildrose and came back.

00:24:09.180 But, man, they were an unhappy bunch.

00:24:11.460 No one wants to serve in that.

00:24:13.220 You know, Elsie Wayne and Jean Charest in 1993 was a bad existence.

00:24:18.920 But anyway, that's ways around.

00:24:20.620 And Nigel, I know you have no great insight into the warped mind of Stephen Gilbeau.

00:24:29.100 But do you think there's now a risk that Gilbeau or others could jet?

00:24:32.360 Nigel, I have an insight into his warped mind.

00:24:35.900 We are yin and yang, the reverse and the obverse.

00:24:40.440 We're just as deeply principled as each other, just believing completely different things.

00:24:45.960 I think that Mr. Gilbill will accommodate himself to the situation for as long as it makes sense in his mind to do so.

00:24:57.420 But ultimately, he has seen the writing on the wall.

00:25:02.120 This government is turning its back on what he is for.

00:25:05.920 for carbon capture, there's, excuse me, you know, clean fuels, a cap on emissions in the

00:25:16.300 national grid, everybody driving electric cars, that's not going to happen. So I think

00:25:22.760 he's probably just, well, I'll make my exit when it's a good time and not at a time when

00:25:29.220 I cut my own throat doing it. So he can't be happy. I'm actually surprised that we haven't

00:25:34.140 heard something from his office already, but maybe he's just a more thoughtful guy than I gave him

00:25:39.000 credit for. Politics is not quiet in Ottawa right now. Parliament may be finally done for the year,

00:25:47.980 rest in peace, but I don't think the politics are done. Some of us have a little Christmas

00:25:54.800 vacation here i fear we may be back in at some point over the break one a one thing about which

00:26:05.200 may cause mr gilbo to stay his hand it concerns me that in celebrating the fact that oh we don't

00:26:12.880 have to meet zero emissions by 2035 we still accept the fact that we're going to apparently

00:26:20.080 meet them in 2050, so his idea remains intact. It is the details that have changed a little bit.

00:26:28.160 Well, let's keep in mind, all of these things the liberals are announcing, none of them matter.

00:26:32.720 None of them matter. I mean, it's like me declaring myself a prophet for a religion I

00:26:37.360 know nothing about or something. These guys can announce anything they want. They announced

00:26:41.040 another big gun ban the other week. You know what gun owners did? They drove their shoulders. 0.99

00:26:45.600 The government's not just lame anymore. The legs have been cut right off.

00:26:49.740 I mean, it's not going anywhere.

00:26:52.360 Yeah. As I put in my column today, related to our next discussion,

00:26:59.120 Trump isn't even sworn in as president yet, but he's calling all the shots.

00:27:04.040 And Trudeau isn't even an ex-prime minister yet.

00:27:06.240 And he's already not calling any of the shots.

00:27:09.160 He has no power. He is done.

00:27:11.540 We essentially don't have a government, which in a sense is kind of a good thing.

00:27:14.360 nobody moves nobody gets hurt well that's I think that's a good segue to our

00:27:19.260 next topic I don't know how to treat this topic but I think we got to talk

00:27:28.800 about it this began with you know Donald Trump's tweets that he's gonna slap a

00:27:35.440 big 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods unless some things got fixed with

00:27:41.200 the borders and illegals and drugs and things not mentioning some of the other

00:27:44.220 big issues. He's got like defense. Defense is a huge one that could very reasonably see a tariff

00:27:51.020 slapped against us. And we really wouldn't even have anything legitimate to say in response. We'd

00:27:55.700 be like, yeah, kind of our free riding. So we would have no defense, no pun intended, but we

00:28:00.980 have no defense against his arguments against our defense spending. Began with that. Trudeau flies

00:28:06.020 down to Mar-a-Lago. They have dinner. It's apparently nice. But Trump kind of teases Trudeau

00:28:12.260 saying, hey, if you can't take the tariff, maybe you should

00:28:14.200 just become the 51st state, and

00:28:16.140 hey, you can be its governor. That was a joke.

00:28:19.140 Someone from the

00:28:20.300 liberal or the Trump side leaked that out.

00:28:22.440 I'm starting to think it was the Trump side.

00:28:24.340 First, I thought it was maybe the Trudeau side, trying

00:28:26.200 to rile up anti-Trump stuff.

00:28:28.520 I'm starting to think it was, now I'm starting to think it was

00:28:30.100 the Trump side, because

00:28:32.020 soon after that,

00:28:34.060 after that became news

00:28:36.220 that you saw Trump

00:28:37.840 tweeting, making fun,

00:28:40.260 trolling, teasing, and

00:28:42.040 in particular, denigrating and disrespecting Justin Trudeau.

00:28:46.440 You know, he posted a picture of himself of himself standing beside a Canadian flag

00:28:51.400 looking like a conqueror overlooking the Matterhorn.

00:28:54.120 Now, that's not the famous mountain in Switzerland.

00:28:56.920 I think it was meant to be the Rocky Mountains.

00:28:58.840 The Assiniboine, similar looking.

00:29:00.400 Yeah, but I think that was the Matterhorn.

00:29:04.200 It was. Yeah.

00:29:05.720 But I think, you know, looking out over what I think they thought was the

00:29:08.480 A.I. thought was the Rockies. And then other tweets calling him Governor Trudeau and you talk about the 51st state.

00:29:19.540 And this has gone on. Eric Trump joining in. Hashtag Canada 51st state.

00:29:25.700 And, you know, at first, I think, was just kind of a mega trolling, posting kind of thing.

00:29:31.100 having fun rah-rah america let's it's that's continuing on and it even continued on i think

00:29:39.800 it was like maybe i'm mistaken i think it was like 3 a.m last night trump goes on truth social

00:29:43.820 and that auto post to twitter x um but you know the he chimed in on the christian freeland thing

00:29:50.540 uh saying you know good riddance she won't be missed uh fired by governor trudeau

00:29:55.160 um again talking about 51st and then last night tweeting again uh there's many canadians who want

00:30:01.180 to join i think he's talked to many canadians i don't think this is very top of mind canadians

00:30:05.580 clamoring to join the united states but uh you know they're unhappy canadians will pay less taxes

00:30:11.200 and have better defense we'll have first and second amendment rights that's what we want

00:30:15.640 yeah yeah i mean uh those those would be pretty nice like a 25th amendment yeah so anyway there's

00:30:21.980 There's like five or six statements now from Trump talking about Governor Trudeau and 51st state stuff.

00:30:30.000 And look, the Trump haters, people with Trump derangement syndrome, the problem is they take everything he says literally.

00:30:37.900 If he says something that's not true, they think it's a lie.

00:30:40.160 They say something that is true, it's a threat, when in fact this man is just, he's a bullshitter.

00:30:44.660 And he's ribbing, he's trolling.

00:30:47.960 But sometimes he does troll, or the analogy I was using, he's a bullshitter.

00:30:52.740 Sometimes he throws bullshit against the wall to see what sticks.

00:30:55.600 That's probable.

00:30:57.560 And yesterday, I was 100% sure this is just Trump bullshitter.

00:31:01.720 He's trolling.

00:31:03.640 Now I'm only 99% sure.

00:31:06.880 Start with you, Nigel.

00:31:07.900 is there and do you think there is anything at all to this beyond purely just weakening

00:31:17.500 trudeau's hand because he knows trudeau's weak oh derek i actually don't think there is anything

00:31:22.980 to it i do think that uh trump is uh you call him a bullshitter a lot of people call him a bully

00:31:29.440 I think he has detected weakness in Justin Trudeau, and heaven knows, we saw it first.

00:31:37.140 So he is doing some psychological warfare here to, as you put it, weaken him prior to the negotiations.

00:31:46.180 And he's having fun doing it.

00:31:48.080 now the only thing about that which could backfire and may in fact have sad consequences

00:31:56.640 here in sanada canada is much as i have enjoyed the persiflage and the teasing because i don't

00:32:05.680 care for mr trudeau very much and i do kind of like trump so i'm happy to see that there comes

00:32:11.280 a point at which even somebody like me is going to say okay fine got the joke that's enough

00:32:18.080 We are a country. We're a serious entity, and you don't get to have my sympathy in making those kinds of jokes anymore.

00:32:27.860 It was great for the first week.

00:32:29.140 And what the sad consequence that I'm referring to is that if it gives Mr. Trudeau a chance to step forward as a champion of national Canadianism, Canadian nationalism, he actually has something good to go to the public with in an election.

00:32:56.900 I am your protector against Mr. Trump.

00:33:00.500 I'm not saying it'll work, but it's something that he could use.

00:33:03.860 So I think Mr. Trump would do us all a favor if he changed the channel.

00:33:08.620 I get what Nigel's saying, Corey.

00:33:10.320 But first of all, I don't think Canada is a serious national entity at this point.

00:33:15.220 Canada is an international laughingstock among friends and foes.

00:33:19.960 um i i get you know that he's wanted to play the anti-trump card that's what they were planning

00:33:27.640 on but now they're so weak i don't think the liberals can because if they do trump he might

00:33:32.920 be a bullshitter but he but you can also sometimes tell when he's serious and and he can't bite back

00:33:38.940 that hard i i'm inclined to generally think this is uh this is a joke that maybe he's pushing a

00:33:44.760 little far but as he's pushed far now we're over a week of the actually the original joke was like

00:33:49.940 December 2nd or 3rd when this first started. And this has gone on and on and on. And I'm going to

00:33:56.800 be like, okay, is he taking a joke too far now? Or is he planting a flag here? So I'm going to

00:34:05.420 pretend to take this seriously for a moment. I take it 1% seriously now. I took it 0% seriously

00:34:10.980 a day ago. But I take 1% seriously right now. Trump is in his last term. So any electoral

00:34:18.220 follow-up that would come from hypothetically a super mega country of also let's say like in this

00:34:24.780 crazy world canada would not be a state it would be five six or ten states or something there's

00:34:30.700 just no way it would come in as one but either way it would it would alter the electoral math

00:34:34.900 that for a few cycles would probably advantage the democrats but trump is done his legacy doesn't need

00:34:40.680 to be another republican elected this gets your face on mount rushmore the uh the louisiana

00:34:46.020 purchase was previously the largest increase in American territory, doubling its size.

00:34:51.940 And Canada is how many dozens of times bigger than the Louisiana Purchase?

00:34:57.780 It would, you know, so in my column today, you know, I talk about him as a bullshitter. And,

00:35:02.500 you know, he's gone around saying, I'm the greatest president, better than Lincoln,

00:35:07.380 better than Washington. I don't think actually means that that's just him being him. But if he

00:35:13.380 did hypothetically pull off something this crazy that's Mount Rushmore worthy that gets you in the

00:35:20.340 pantheon of the greats yeah I just I mean maybe in his kind of weird mind he could see that as a

00:35:26.900 coup but that's what I'm asking for not the feasibility of this but do you think there

00:35:32.020 is anything in Trump's head that's actually seriously contemplating this at all maybe

00:35:36.660 daydreaming in the bathtub but he's still enough of a realist to know that he's got enough irons

00:35:40.740 in the fire before doing that, that, you know, he would actually move on. And I think some of it is

00:35:46.400 a bit strategic. It's really destabilizing an already unstable country when you're looking

00:35:50.940 for a whole new negotiation on a new deal. But there's consequences that are going to start

00:35:55.280 coming. And it's as Nigel said, eventually, people find it's one thing to disrespect Trudeau.

00:36:00.500 But now we're getting nation to nation, you're starting to disrespect Canada. And that can sour

00:36:05.720 a relationship that's been a good, peaceful, prosperous one for both of us for a long,

00:36:10.040 long time. Another part of his tweet that not enough people mentioned, and he's been said a

00:36:13.540 few times too, is we're subsidizing Canada a hundred billion a year, which is a load of crap.

00:36:18.240 It is. But I've been attacked on X, so that's nothing new for me, but by American followers 1.00

00:36:24.260 and such, oh, you parasites, we're sick assuring you Canadian does. You got to remember some of 1.00

00:36:28.080 Trump's followers and they're taking this on thinking, you mean I'm paying tax dollars to

00:36:32.320 those Canadians? They take his crap seriously. They are subsidizing us with our defense. 0.74

00:36:38.200 But that's not what he's talking about. He's not even talking about that.

00:36:41.440 He's taking what we're talking about as a trade deficit, and he's expanding even beyond that and bloating it.

00:36:47.040 I'm just saying these, what it was lighthearted teasing, as some are dismissing it as, are starting to cause actual rooted divisions.

00:36:55.320 And that can be problematic even once Trudeau is gone, and it's not good for relations between our countries.

00:37:02.000 And I worry about that. That's a consequence that I don't think maybe even he's thinking about that might come from this.

00:37:08.200 But, you know, the Trump following, the MAGA bunch, they take his stuff as gospel.

00:37:13.200 And if they think that those darn dirty Canadians are going to, you know, blow up the Baldwin's house and they are actually, you know, taking money out of the pockets of American taxpayers, it hurts us. 0.98

00:37:26.400 So, again, just amuse me with this wild hypothetical that this, say Trump was serious.

00:37:35.460 the Republicans would be

00:37:38.580 electorally disadvantaged by it for a few cycles

00:37:40.680 until things reorient and then

00:37:42.260 probably come back to the 50-50 split that America

00:37:44.660 is in

00:37:45.160 but Republicans would

00:37:47.800 back it because it's manifest destiny

00:37:50.260 it's making America super great

00:37:52.580 again, greater than it's ever been

00:37:53.800 and Democrats would support it because

00:37:56.240 they'd bring in a bunch of voters

00:37:58.520 that are to the left of the current

00:38:00.480 American center, so that'd be good for them 0.99

00:38:02.400 so America would go for it

00:38:04.320 And I just don't think Americans really thought about it very much until the last week or so.

00:38:10.860 Let's talk about on the Canadian side.

00:38:13.360 Poll show there's like 10 or 15% of Canadians that favor it.

00:38:16.940 That's higher than I would expect.

00:38:19.420 It's higher than real.

00:38:20.600 Last year I went on a speaking tour.

00:38:22.720 I hit a couple of dozen pounds of filling books and speaking to independence-minded crowds.

00:38:27.540 These are people as this is the most curated group of non-confederation type people you're going to find.

00:38:34.960 And one of the things one of the other speakers would do at every one of those meetings is actually pull the room by hands.

00:38:38.960 You know, which would you what would you like to see if you left Canada?

00:38:41.940 An independent Alberta, West with five provinces or four provinces or joining the USA.

00:38:48.520 You're lucky to get one percent wanted to join the United States.

00:38:51.640 So even in that room, I mean, I know people being reactionary right now and we're seeing some of those larger numbers.

00:38:56.480 Yeah, there's not a realistic. But I'll keep in mind, this is not just the West or Alberta here.

00:39:00.500 This is Ontario. Oh, yeah, it would even get weaker. No, no. But now the numbers do include up there.

00:39:05.800 Either way, it's very small. It's higher than I would expect. Yeah, but it's small.

00:39:10.300 Trump's saying great numbers. That's just it's not the case.

00:39:14.920 But could he force it if he wanted to? And I do think he could.

00:39:19.160 If he decided he wanted to do this and he got the probably get both parties to the states to get on.

00:39:25.380 The only things that stop any U.S. president could force union between these countries if they wanted to without military force.

00:39:34.580 It would be entirely unnecessary and unproductive to use military force.

00:39:38.380 They don't need to.

00:39:40.060 They could bring in massive tariffs and other measures.

00:39:44.520 They could bring us down to a Great Depression-level economic apocalypse.

00:39:49.720 They could do it tomorrow if they really wanted to.

00:39:51.700 The only things that stop them is it'll hurt them too, but it'll hurt them a hell of a lot less than us.

00:39:56.760 But it'll hurt them.

00:39:58.360 And diplomatic niceties.

00:40:02.860 Diplomatic niceties is not a term I really associate with Donald Trump.

00:40:07.480 If he wanted to do this, and even if Canadians wanted no part of it,

00:40:12.880 how long would the Canadian public be willing to endure a Great Depression?

00:40:18.060 the bankruptcy of the federal government

00:40:21.820 and then the end of the welfare state that comes from that.

00:40:24.120 They're saying, well, we want our universal health care.

00:40:26.700 You don't get universal health care if the federal government goes bankrupt.

00:40:29.600 You don't get any of that stuff.

00:40:31.020 The American welfare state all of a sudden looks a lot more generous than the Canadian one.

00:40:34.920 If a U.S. president was truly determined to,

00:40:37.640 they could do this without firing a bullet.

00:40:41.280 Nigel, do you think a determined U.S. president could force this if they truly wanted to?

00:40:49.020 40 million illegal aliens to go with the 20 they've already got they're trying to get rid of 0.99

00:40:53.420 well i don't think we'd be considered aliens but i we might consider ourselves ourselves

00:41:00.220 illegal aliens you know derek i mean it's a fun it's a fun idea to play with uh i don't buy it

00:41:08.540 myself i don't have the same sense of i take it one percent seriously i take it i give it a one

00:41:14.300 percent but i'm saying a u.s president if they're truly determined to well i i just don't see

00:41:19.100 anything look you've got a country of 360 million people against a country of 40 even in the end

00:41:24.380 they can do whatever they like of course they can but i don't think they would have the domestic 0.93

00:41:29.660 support for it the republicans would not be as i mean they might like to have alberta and maybe

00:41:35.420 be Saskatchewan. I don't think they're going to want Quebec. I don't think they're going to want

00:41:40.040 Quebec. Cut those guys loose. They would know that all they would be getting would be 40 million

00:41:52.760 people who didn't really want to participate in this. That's not what I'm asking. I'm not asking

00:41:58.280 that. I'm saying if they were truly determined to, could they do it? Well, I mean, of course.

00:42:03.280 without firing a shot. That's, well, that's, that's, that's the question. Well, how long would

00:42:09.980 how long would we be willing to accept bankruptcy and depression level economy

00:42:15.300 to withstand it? But I mean, that would be an act of economic war to have gone down the road of,

00:42:20.660 you know, speculation. And there are other nations on the planet stronger than Canada. I mean,

00:42:25.180 if he's getting that insular, you better be ready for trade sanctions to come from everybody in 1.00

00:42:29.680 Europe, possibly parts of Asia.

00:42:31.840 You think anybody's going to stick their neck out to help

00:42:33.860 Canada?

00:42:35.200 If you see expansionism on the part of the United States,

00:42:37.760 yeah.

00:42:39.640 China would come up with a loan for us.

00:42:41.860 They'd want a lot in return.

00:42:44.120 Sign your soul to the devil there.

00:42:45.600 And there are

00:42:47.780 certainly Canadian leaders who would rather

00:42:49.620 do that than

00:42:50.520 reverse the results of the war of

00:42:53.500 1812.

00:42:56.460 This is what happens though

00:42:57.560 when I think as the post-war liberal international order

00:43:01.440 collapses, and Trump is eager, I think,

00:43:03.560 to bring about that collapse, is that we're now back

00:43:07.200 to kind of old school power politics.

00:43:09.340 And Trump recognizes that historically,

00:43:13.040 the great powers have a backyard.

00:43:14.620 They have a sphere of influence and they get to do

00:43:16.340 what they want in that sphere of influence.

00:43:18.480 Ukraine is in Russia's sphere of influence,

00:43:23.320 Taiwan is in China's, and guess what? 0.98

00:43:26.360 We're in America.

00:43:28.320 They can already do whatever they like up here anyway.

00:43:31.520 So I felt the Alaska Highway.

00:43:33.520 They got the dew line.

00:43:34.700 They do what they need to do.

00:43:36.120 Okay.

00:43:36.580 Well, that was enough speculative craziness for today.

00:43:41.600 Let's see what happens.

00:43:42.540 Well, you know, we actually got, we have the break coming up.

00:43:44.760 So let's see if the Stars and Stripes are flying over Ottawa by January.

00:43:51.040 Okay.

00:43:52.220 Let's go to our parting shots.

00:43:53.540 Let's start with you, Nigel.

00:43:54.060 So now that Mr. Moran there has stolen me, it occurs to me to remark that much as we feel sorry for Christia Freeland and as much as we feel sorry for any woman who has been outrageously treated by a cad, she still was not actually the best finance minister that we have ever had.

00:44:17.400 And, quite frankly, her presiding over endless deficits that have taken our accumulated deficit all the way to $1.2 trillion, plus another $60 billion under her own signature here.

00:44:38.960 You know, maybe Trump was right.

00:44:40.920 Maybe she wasn't so great.

00:44:42.360 Good riddance.

00:44:43.020 She won't be missed, as he said.

00:44:44.060 She won't be missed.

00:44:44.820 Just kind of further to what Nigel was saying, I don't want to get, you know, what's lost in the mix of this insane news cycle. We have a $62 billion deficit. Our debt servicing charges are over $52 billion a year. Now that's money flushed down the toilet. I worked that out. If you take it just per taxpayer, $1,700 per person per year, just to service the debt.

00:45:12.880 now. If you're having trouble making ends meet, well there's a hundred and some a month per person

00:45:16.960 working in your household that's paying the interest. Going to nothing. No health care,

00:45:21.120 no daycare, none of that stuff. That. Don't lose the numbers while all this political intrigue goes

00:45:26.720 on. Hey, keep in mind, that's just the federal debt. Oh yeah. That's not including the provinces.

00:45:30.400 No, I could go a lot deeper. All right. Well, my parting shot is the measures that the Alberta

00:45:38.640 government is taking in response to uh to trump albert is taking a very different approach than

00:45:43.280 the fed well the feds have had no approach essentially they're they're caught chasing

00:45:47.200 their own tails with their own games then you've got ontario premier uh doug ford promising trade

00:45:52.080 war with america oh they're so afraid uh yeah ontario does export energy but it also imports

00:45:58.960 a lot of energy it's actually not a particularly large energy exporter doesn't really have much

00:46:03.520 to say so albert has taken a more conciliatory approach i'm not sure there is a good approach

00:46:08.640 But I think, at least in Alberta's case, that's probably best for Alberta, because we do export a lot, and if we can't, we're toast.

00:46:15.780 So Alberta has gone ahead and put forward $20-odd million into essentially setting up our own border patrol, particularly along the Montana border there.

00:46:26.960 I think, what is it, a 10-kilometer, is it a 5- or 10-kilometer zone?

00:46:31.260 Two kilometers back from the border to be in patrol, yes.

00:46:34.900 I mean, there's not a lot there.

00:46:35.960 Corey, you've worked along there.

00:46:37.580 I've been along there.

00:46:38.640 There's just some corn and dirt roads and the odd kid flying around in a Mustang.

00:46:43.640 Pretty bleak down there.

00:46:44.640 Yeah, there's not much there, but Alberta setting up its own border patrol and whatnot,

00:46:48.640 and that seems to have been pretty well received in the United States.

00:46:52.640 My only problem is that this shouldn't be the job of the Alberta sheriffs.

00:46:57.640 This should be the job of the Rat Patrol.

00:46:59.640 We've already got the Alberta Rat Patrol that patrols, already patrols the B.C., Saskatchewan,

00:47:05.640 and Manitoba borders looking for vermin to come in past our borders and they're very efficient at exterminating them.

00:47:11.640 So I just think we should have given the rapid roll some some missile drones to control the borders with.

00:47:18.640 I think that would have been a bit more efficient.

00:47:20.640 More fitting anyway.

00:47:21.640 See, I'm living in a fever dream today.

00:47:23.640 OK, gentlemen, thank you very much.

00:47:25.640 I thank all of you for joining us on the pipeline today.

00:47:28.640 Remember, if you're not a member of the Western Standard, you really should be supporting one of the only independent media left in Canada.

00:47:34.640 media left and candidate not taking the Justin Trudeau's federal media bailout subsidies.

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00:47:55.680 Merry Christmas, and we'll see you in the new year.

Western Standard - December 19, 2024

Trudeau out. Trump in？

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