A recession is when people lose their jobs, and queues form at banks of another kind, those that give out free food, they are heading for a busy Christmas. How do we know that? Well, another seasoned professional is already out there managing expectations, while introducing her November economic update.
00:00:52.800Well, another seasoned professional is already out there managing expectations.
00:00:58.000While introducing her November economic update, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland essentially told Canadians they were on their own.
00:01:07.680She said, we cannot support every single Canadian in the way we did with emergency measures at the height of the pandemic.
00:01:16.900The very fact that the government of Canada paid millions of people to stay home in 2020, during the COVID-19 scare,
00:01:27.600doubled the national debt in the process, raised fuel taxes, and sparked this inflation is why we're in this national mess to begin with.
00:01:38.380Now, obviously, Macklem is not a fool, nor is Minister Freeland, although her palsy-walsy ways with the World Economic Forum do concern me.
00:01:50.600I'll also concede that the Monday morning quarterback, me in this case, has it easy compared to the guy on the field on Saturday.
00:02:00.740However, never mind me, a lot of very ordinary people saw this whole thing coming.
00:02:11.300The soaring grocery prices, the supply chain problems, the housing crisis, the rising interest rates, and the rocketing price of fuel.
00:02:19.600These were people who didn't have economics degrees, but somewhere, maybe at high school, they had supply and demand explained to them like this.
00:02:31.280When you double the money supply, without doubling the supply of things to buy, prices tend to rise.
00:02:38.360And if you borrow that money, you have to pay it back one day.
00:02:41.600And when you put a tax on fuel, that price increase goes right through the economy because everything you buy comes by a truck or by a train that burns fuel.
00:02:56.960So people who knew even that much watched in horror as they first saw the government of Canada borrow more money in two years than had ever been borrowed in the entire history of Canada through two world wars, a depression, and a couple of recessions.
00:03:17.760All so that they could pay other people $2,000 a month to stay home.
00:03:25.040Second, they saw businesses ordered to close and stay closed.
00:03:31.960Third, they saw that in Trudeau's Canada, climate change couldn't wait, and they watched as Trudeau hiked the carbon tax on fuels.
00:03:42.740And the people with a grade 11 understanding of economics said,
00:03:47.200Mmm, higher borrowing, higher fuel taxes, all leads to inflation.
00:03:53.320And that usually means raising interest rates.
00:04:03.580Anybody who knew that much also knew inflation was running at more than the declared 6% and 7%.
00:04:09.460They knew the stuff they actually bought, as opposed to what was measured, was rising in price far more quickly.
00:04:16.140Hopefully, they stocked up, because two days before Minister Freeland delivered her update, Statistics Canada confirmed what they already feared, that many staples were up more than 10%, and things like spaghetti were up 26%, and that old cheap fallback for tough times.
00:04:35.660So if plain folk can figure out all that from their news feeds and what they see on the television, why did the experts do what they did that is apparently putting us into a recession?
00:04:53.060Ultimately, the problem is leadership.
00:04:58.040In Mr. Trudeau, we have a Prime Minister who thinks budgets balance themselves, and who has declared himself disinterested in monetary policy anyway.
00:05:11.100Those places that avoided lockdowns did no worse than those that ordered people to shelter in place.
00:05:18.960But surrounding himself with people who lack wisdom, most of whom made their careers in anything but business, and have never met payroll in their lives.
00:05:29.500The drama teacher turned Prime Minister took the route of borrowing, spending, and daily photo ops.
00:05:38.880And while the Bank of Canada is supposedly arm's length from the federal government, you're dreaming if you think the bank doesn't pay attention to the federal narrative.
00:06:19.780And feed wheat's up $4 a tonne to $4.78 per metric.
00:06:23.480Corn is down $4 a tonne to $4.73 per metric.
00:06:27.360Taking a look at the milling wheat markets, December Minneapolis futures are up $0.15.75 to $9.59 per bushel.
00:06:34.320And local high-red spring wheat for December is at $12.25 per bushel delivered.
00:06:40.300In the oil seats, nearby canola futures are up $8.40 to $9.05 per metric tonne.
00:06:46.280And delivered values for December movement are at $20.03 per bushel.
00:06:49.820Looking at the pulse markets, they're largely unchanged with red lentils remaining at $0.34 per pound and yellow peas are holding steady at $13 a bushel.
00:07:01.480Taking a quick look at the cattle markets, December Live cattle are down $0.17 to $1.51.75 per hundred weight.
00:07:07.540For more information on pricing and picked up on farm options, give me a call at 403-394-1711.
00:07:15.100I'm Mike Van Dyke at Marketplace Commodities.
00:07:17.400Accurate real-time marketing information and pricing options.