Western Standard - Trump. Trudeau. Tariffs

00:00:00.000 Good day. Today is November 27th, 2024. I am Derek Villebrandt, publisher of the Western

00:00:27.360 standard and you're watching the pipeline i'm joined as always by my good friends

00:00:33.520 nigel henneford opinion editor of the western standard nice to be here and uh corey morgan

00:00:40.160 senior alberta columnist always a thrill all right uh yeah some days it's just really easy

00:00:47.280 to figure out what we're talking about talking trump fruto tariffs and uh why we should all be

00:00:53.120 very scared that we're led by these people right now. We're going to talk about Alberta invoking

00:01:00.080 the Sovereignty Act against the federal government's attempt to impose what are

00:01:05.360 quite arguably unconstitutional limitations on Alberta's oil and gas industry and the return

00:01:11.920 of coal country. The old crow's nest pass, kind of the beating heart of once the coal industry in

00:01:19.360 Alberta, which hasn't been really mining coal for quite a long time. Residents there voted

00:01:25.040 overwhelmingly to endorse Northback's reopening of a coal mine there, much to the chagrin of

00:01:35.280 green-haired greenies, some NIMBYs, and Corblunt. Okay, well, we'll start off with our first one 0.59

00:01:45.760 here um so president-elect donald trump funny you know americans call the president president for

00:01:54.000 life you know even after they're out of office except they stopped doing that with donald trump

00:01:57.600 they'd say it's former president trump or they'll say mr trump even yeah yeah but they you know

00:02:02.400 let me say mr president for the rest of life you get the title even if you're not president they

00:02:06.160 didn't do that with trump but now he's trump a lot he's president-elect and mr president and

00:02:12.000 former mr president it's it's all very confusing one day there will be an aircraft carrier named

00:02:17.440 after him mark my words and it'll fly a big mega play um so uh trump has announced that on his very

00:02:26.560 first day in office that that part kind of surprised me how quickly he's moving on his

00:02:29.680 very first day in office he is going to impose a 25 percent tariff on canada and mexico until

00:02:37.920 uh border issues around uh drug smuggling uh most of the drugs are coming from the united

00:02:44.560 uh from mexico but a significant fentanyl uh shipments uh i think fentanyl and weed ecstasy

00:02:50.400 as well okay from canada apparently the very best yeah uh but definitely fentanyl being uh the real

00:02:57.280 the real big one coming um fentanyl and those kinds of opioids uh and and immigration and

00:03:03.680 insecurity issues at the border getting resolved. And I think this is also just a prelude

00:03:09.080 to major other trade irritants, Canada's refusal to open up on supply management.

00:03:16.460 We'll get to that part in a bit, as this involves Quebec. Things like that. And of course,

00:03:23.320 Canada's chronic failure to spend anywhere close to its own commitment, spend 2% of our GDP per

00:03:31.240 per capita on defense spending, as is our NATO commitment. So Trump lays this down.

00:03:41.660 Trudeau, though, it's Trudeau's job to fight for Canada here. But he's in a pretty weak position

00:03:48.420 to do it, I think. Everybody hates him. And the US president thinks he's a lesser mortal.

00:03:57.820 He is probably the worst person that we could have

00:04:00.500 to be negotiating on our behalf right now.

00:04:04.560 It's not even certain that he'll be there to do it

00:04:07.720 if the rest of Parliament decides that they don't like

00:04:12.720 what budget he brings down, and he'll be done in March.

00:04:18.460 And quite frankly, what I've been saying

00:04:21.480 when I was writing yesterday was that

00:04:23.080 might as well just go to an election now.

00:04:24.900 Would the other three parties please get together, declare no confidence, and force the election?

00:04:31.760 Now, I know they won't do it because there's about 80 MPs who have an interest in going the distance for the sake of their pensions.

00:04:38.840 However, if they could be patriotic and get this done, we need somebody else, frankly, doing the negotiating with Mr. Trump.

00:04:51.220 It's just not going to apply.

00:04:52.420 So, look, I don't hold it against Trudeau that he's anti-Trump, Corey. He's a pretty far-left progressive. So, of course, he's going to be anti-Trump. There's fair reasons to be anti-Trump, even for conservatives sometimes.

00:05:07.480 But he's broken the cardinal rule of Canadian foreign policy, which is to piss off the American president very personally.

00:05:21.560 You know, Jean Chrétien had his major disagreements with George Bush, very much did not like George Bush.

00:05:28.260 But he didn't go after George Bush personally.

00:05:31.240 He would criticize his war.

00:05:32.360 It turns out Chrétien was right about that.

00:05:34.280 God, I hate saying that, but he was.

00:05:39.220 You know, he did not go along with the rock, but he never personally went after Bush, Bush, Bush, Bush, Bush.

00:05:45.600 He was careful not to because it would imperil the natural interest. 0.96

00:05:51.320 Trudeau, on the other hand, has tried to make, you know, Polyev is Trump and Trump is evil. 0.94

00:05:58.060 Therefore, Polyev is evil.

00:05:59.460 Well, that's not going to endear you very much to the guy who, you know, is going to be president in a few months here. 0.99

00:06:06.860 He's a lame duck. He has no control of Parliament. 0.98

00:06:09.740 Parliament hasn't even debated a single Liberal bill in over two months as it's been tied up because the Liberals refused to release the documents Parliament submitted on the Green Slush Fund illegally and unconstitutionally.

00:06:20.980 And he's just got no mandate here.

00:06:23.080 I know

00:06:26.900 the obviously best thing for the country

00:06:29.000 right now is just to have an election

00:06:30.360 and even if Trudeau were to win, which he would not

00:06:32.820 but even if he were to win, at least

00:06:34.260 he'd have a mandate, he would not be a lame duck

00:06:36.680 and he would be able to sit down at the table

00:06:39.060 and credibly claim

00:06:40.980 that he speaks for Canada, but right now he can't even

00:06:42.940 claim to speak for Canada 0.82

00:06:44.020 it's almost like he's an interim

00:06:46.380 Prime Minister at this point

00:06:48.140 We're up the creek, we're in a terribly weak position

00:06:50.800 with our strongest trading partner

00:06:52.780 and as you said a guy leading canada who's gone out of his way to antagonize trump for years and

00:06:58.800 whatever about trump it's one of the things i don't like about him he's thin-skinned and he

00:07:01.960 takes things personally when you shouldn't as a somebody in such a big position of power but it's

00:07:06.140 a reality you have to face i mean when i own my pub i assure you there were a number of customers

00:07:10.340 i despised i couldn't stand them but i tell you i come to their table with a smile and curse about 0.61

00:07:16.100 them behind closed doors later you don't it's diplomacy you just deal with it you keep your

00:07:22.140 face straight and you move on from there it's part of your self-interest especially when you

00:07:25.760 got the weaker hand yes these were bad tippers right well i didn't help yeah well that's probably

00:07:30.200 because they saw me scowling at them but all the same i mean you still want them to keep coming in

00:07:33.720 and spending money i mean you don't want to come on bended knee i mean it's a trade negotiation so

00:07:38.640 if you had some more position of strength you could be standing up you know you don't want to

00:07:42.360 be a dish man or a doormat for president trump but he smells the blood in the water he knows

00:07:46.960 there's weak leadership in canada lame duck leadership and he's making a hard push i mean

00:07:51.720 25% tariff is going to hurt Americans too. That's a painful thing. It brings up your prices of

00:07:57.040 consumer products. But I think Trump would be willing to go that far. But I think this is an

00:08:02.040 opening volley. If he can get other concessions, he'll probably reduce that. But because he's got

00:08:06.820 somebody so weak on the other side, he can start with such an insane push on things. And then we're

00:08:11.740 going to pay dearly for it. One thing about this is how the free trade agreement plays into this.

00:08:17.600 I'm not sure that you can just unilaterally apply a 25 percent tariff when you have a free trade agreement.

00:08:26.420 Well, I think it would be essentially voiding the agreement if you did so.

00:08:31.400 Yes. I mean, it's obviously I mean, it's art of the deal stuff.

00:08:35.580 He's coming out with this crazy opening position.

00:08:40.400 You know, and Canadians Canadians have had this appalled reaction to it.

00:08:45.920 And Trump's actions are extreme here, but Canadians are not used to governments acting so clearly in their national interest.

00:08:54.460 America first, Canada first.

00:08:57.420 We've bought into this crazy Canadian delusion, maybe stemming all the way back to Pearson's peacekeepers,

00:09:06.240 that we're above the national interest.

00:09:08.540 Canada is the honest broker.

00:09:10.780 We don't really need to take sides in issues.

00:09:13.960 We're everybody's friend.

00:09:15.320 And we're no one's enemy. Well, that world never really existed. But if it ever did, it's gone now.

00:09:21.440 We are down now. We're back to national interests and countries cooperating together when it's in their national interest,

00:09:27.880 not for some esoteric, ill-defined international rules based order. We're down to the national interest.

00:09:34.960 And so I just don't think Canadians are very used to this kind of hardball.

00:09:38.980 I'm not sure this government's prepared for it either.

00:09:42.060 But even if it was, it's just got no...

00:09:45.480 They have newspapers in Washington, D.C.

00:09:47.500 They have newspapers in Mar-a-Lago.

00:09:50.280 And they know this guy is done.

00:09:51.700 And unlike when Trump came to power in 2016,

00:09:54.540 you know, Trudeau was pretty fresh for 2015.

00:09:57.200 He was the darling of the global progressivist left.

00:10:01.500 Today, he is the punching bag internationally.

00:10:04.460 internationally the left even internationally is kind of afraid to be associated with them and the

00:10:09.340 right and he is an international villain to the right so there's actually good political points

00:10:14.540 for trump to score by beating up on trudeau i don't even think uh trump is going to be really

00:10:20.700 willing to even negotiate with him very much because what can he do trudeau can't pass a bill

00:10:25.900 through parliament he literally can't even get any bill through parliament right now let alone

00:10:30.620 something that would be uh you know as as uh disruptive as a as a major new trade agreement

00:10:38.860 uh let's talk about oil and how this affects alberta saskatchewan here uh the biggest biggest

00:10:45.100 canadian import export by far anywhere and to the united states is our oil if oil was hit with this

00:10:52.140 25 tariff canada overall goes into a total extreme depression level beyond any we thought

00:11:00.540 thought the Great Recession was bad, that ain't nothing compared to what happens if we get hit

00:11:03.820 with a 25% tariff. But I don't think it's going to go that far. But if it were to apply to oil,

00:11:09.080 Alberta just dies overnight. And I think this might be playing into why Daniel Smith is just

00:11:16.000 not following Trudeau's lead on this. One, Alberta should generally not follow Ottawa's lead on many

00:11:20.960 things, particularly a Trudeau-led Ottawa. But on oil, she needs to carve out on her own here. 0.95

00:11:27.240 Corey, do you think there's any risk for Smith freelancing here?

00:11:33.760 Trudeau's calling for Team Canada, the United Front, the premiers.

00:11:38.520 There's a First Minister's meeting today.

00:11:40.180 First Minister's been calling for a meeting with Trudeau for years and years, never got one.

00:11:43.920 Trudeau finally calls one now because he finally needs their help because they're speaking out of line.

00:11:47.360 Yeah, well, Smith has room to make an incredible provincial coup.

00:11:50.600 She wouldn't make big points across Canada.

00:11:52.220 But I think if there's anything Trump would be receptive to, if you're talking about starting to negotiate and carve things out, a 25% tariff on Canadian oil and gas would bring up energy prices in the States. And that's never popular for any president. If anything, he would like to just keep flowing freely, it'd be the oil. If Smith got that carved out, well, there's a 25% tariff on auto manufacturing in Ontario and Quebec.

00:12:13.200 i mean and if all she has to do is drop it in trump's ear you know if you want to see trudeau

00:12:19.080 have an aneurysm this is the policy you can do uh so i'm very smart she has a presence in

00:12:24.900 washington already and actually i think it was premier kenny who brought that in and she's just

00:12:28.060 i think that goes back uh prentice or even red fruit yeah but it's it's been good alberta's

00:12:34.820 always just bypassed ottawa and dealt directly with with washington so uh she's got a lot of

00:12:40.160 opportunity and yeah it might take off the rest of the country but i think uh premier smith seems

00:12:43.840 to have more of that money on the premier of alberta not the prime minister of canada so

00:12:47.200 i'll worry about us first so nigel i think the risk on oil and you know i was watching some

00:12:52.320 commentators on fox news yesterday um and they're talking about uh you know they use terms like uh

00:13:00.320 you realize that's the f word you just yeah i just dropped the f-bomb

00:13:04.320 you know but they talk about uh national self-reliance and oil energy security and whatnot

00:13:09.200 the question is do the americans consider canadian oil to be effectively domestic american oil

00:13:16.560 i mean i think they they view it differently than venezuelan oil also most of the refineries in the

00:13:21.520 mission in the rust belt they've all been retooled for alberta heavy crude and america has no source

00:13:27.680 of heavy crude uh like that kind of you know bitumen and things like that there's only real

00:13:33.200 two sources in the western hemisphere for that that's venezuela and canada so i i guess it

00:13:37.680 depends do they consider entered you know their energy security policy to include Canada or not

00:13:44.720 but I think Smith has to do this because on Trudeau's list of priorities to have to not

00:13:50.000 have a tariff on oil is probably the very last one he is not going to be saying Trump come on

00:13:56.240 you can't stop our oil he's not going to go to bat for that he's he's going to try and protect

00:14:01.200 you know a couple hundred dairy farmers in Quebec he's going to try and defend EV subsidized EV

00:14:06.560 batteries in Ontario. He's going to try and defend Bombardier in Montreal and things like that. Oil

00:14:12.860 is going to be at the very, very bottom. How successful do you think Smith is going to be

00:14:17.920 in trying to carve oil out completely? Because it's not something Trudeau is going to actually

00:14:23.320 really negotiate for. Not for the first time. You have preempted something I was going to say,

00:14:28.660 and it's about the fact that the refineries are tooled up. You can't just switch your source of

00:14:35.460 oil oh we'll get it from nigeria no it doesn't work that way it's a it's a process so in actual fact

00:14:45.380 somebody would whisper in trump's ear actually that's not a bad idea if you exempt alberta

00:14:52.740 because we kind of need the stuff that they've got or our prices are going to be going up

00:14:58.500 um plus you know she's he's not one of them she's kind of sympathetic

00:15:05.460 Actually, he's going to your inauguration, sir.

00:15:08.460 You know, I can see that there might be an exemption for Alberta oil.

00:15:15.920 And back in Ottawa, even as they publicly fume and call Smith the traitor and Albertans, well, the things they do call us, at the same time, gosh, if they keep the oil flowing, then the revenue keeps flowing, doesn't it?

00:15:32.520 So it's not all bad.

00:15:34.580 I think it can happen.

00:15:37.180 All right.

00:15:39.700 Well, let's switch it up now to acting sovereign.

00:15:45.160 So we're going to kind of stay on.

00:15:47.100 Stay on oil. 0.84

00:15:47.940 Well, we're really staying on Alberta oil here.

00:15:50.000 And Alberta trying to get its own chorus away from Ottawa.

00:15:54.440 I mean, I just love any time.

00:15:57.740 Sovereignty Act bombs are just fun to drop.

00:15:59.500 But, you know, they've been fairly sparing.

00:16:02.400 when they use it. It's been used only once already. They're now using it on the emissions cap.

00:16:10.640 Now the emissions cap effectively means a production cap. And we can't imagine for

00:16:16.720 one moment the Trudeau Liberals imposing a cap on production of, you know, planes from Bombardier

00:16:25.680 in Quebec or on cars from, you know, GM or Chrysler in Ontario, they just wouldn't do it.

00:16:34.480 But we know that's the way it is. So, you know, the Sovereignty Act is,

00:16:40.240 let's remember, the Sovereignty Act was passed as a weaker version of what was kind of talked

00:16:43.680 about during Smith's leadership campaign, but it's still got some teeth.

00:16:48.240 Essentially, what she's saying here is, you know, what happens is Ottawa does something that

00:16:51.920 Alberta believes to be unconstitutional. Alberta would sue the federal government and five years

00:16:56.400 later maybe get a positive judgment. In the meantime we've complied with it the whole time

00:17:00.640 and it's just become reality even if it was found to be unconstitutional. Think of the plastic straw

00:17:05.200 ban. That was struck down as unconstitutional but the industry has moved over to crappy paper straws.

00:17:10.320 They're slowly starting to bring back real straws but that's going to take some time. In the meantime

00:17:14.560 Ottawa has changed the culture around those things. This means Alberta is just simply not

00:17:19.840 going to enforce the emissions cap and Ottawa can sue Alberta to enforce their law and prove

00:17:27.040 that it is constitutional puts the onus back on Ottawa as well as some other great stuff there

00:17:32.160 they're going to ban federal and environment Canada officials from visiting Alberta oil sites

00:17:38.720 Saskatchewan I think did this too uh in a different water yeah around water just like

00:17:43.840 banning federal bureaucrats from going on people's land in Saskatchewan I think it's just pretty

00:17:49.200 funny thing it's trespassing if you're a fed if you're a fed um i started with you and i will uh

00:17:58.320 i i'm not sure they don't even actually have to win in court on this one this one essentially just

00:18:04.640 kills the emissions cap altogether because by the time this even gets to a court trudeau's

00:18:09.120 not going to be in power anymore gilbo is going to be back scale and buildings at greenpeace

00:18:13.360 that's exactly the the timing is on smith's side if this was the start of a four-year time by a

00:18:21.840 hostile federal government it might be a bit different but a number of things are working

00:18:28.280 against mr trudeau on this you mentioned earlier how the how the he can't get anything through

00:18:37.440 parliament well just last week we had michelle rempel in in not in studio but on the on this

00:18:44.820 program talking about how until the federal government supplies the papers that have been

00:18:53.620 demanded of it by a committee which they are has to do with the the green slush fund until they

00:19:00.700 fess up to what they've done and show the papers they can't actually pass a bill they can't take

00:19:09.420 action and so when it comes to much as i think that the courts would react far more quickly to

00:19:15.020 ottawa suing alberta than alberta suing uh suing ottawa there just isn't going to be time well

00:19:23.180 albert could also gum it up i mean if one side in the legal city wants to gum things up they can

00:19:27.100 gumming up a long time well that would be that would be uh underhanded so cynical that you might

00:19:33.500 use the legal system i can't imagine that a former mla would have even suggested something like that

00:19:38.060 but uh anyway uh they're going to run out of time they may run out of government meanwhile

00:19:44.940 to run out of government that's that's a good saying yeah sure to call them on that

00:19:49.260 kurdo's run out of government well we've kind of been saying that a little long but uh yeah but

00:19:53.500 but I think that put it well.

00:19:55.140 You want that as a headline?

00:19:56.260 I think that's a good headline.

00:19:57.200 All right.

00:19:58.160 True to run out of government.

00:19:59.620 There you go.

00:20:02.560 Corey, I think it's generally good politics for Smith

00:20:05.840 when she picks a big fight with Ottawa.

00:20:10.220 Has the NDP said anything about this one?

00:20:13.720 On the emissions cap, I don't know.

00:20:15.780 I mean, invoking the Sovereignty Act against it,

00:20:18.340 because the NDP has been against the Sovereignty Act,

00:20:20.720 but they seem to be getting pretty quiet about it the alberta ndp spoke up uh that fellow who's

00:20:26.420 oh that guy who stands around in the atrium trying to get attention there uh that's right

00:20:32.400 yeah uh he did be cough about it but it just shows him weaker again like when people feel

00:20:37.660 that they're being victimized by ottawa to have an up-and-comer saying i want to replace that

00:20:41.700 premier and oh by the way i'm going to show up in ottawa on bended knee he's not doing himself

00:20:45.720 any favors as you said he's been fairly quiet on he put out one statement condemning it but

00:20:49.400 I suspect politically they're going to know, let's just not die on this hill, because if we really do want to be an NDP government again, this is not the path to get into there.

00:21:00.400 So, I mean, the emissions cap is ridiculous.

00:21:03.660 It's this, you know, you're talking like airplanes and such that they're asking the impossible and they know it.

00:21:08.480 That's why it is a production cap.

00:21:10.020 They know that we do not have the technology to reduce the emissions by the amount they're demanding without reducing production.

00:21:16.460 Thus, the production will be cut.

00:21:18.360 And if production's cut, Alberta is hurt and they know it.

00:21:21.780 Albertans know it.

00:21:23.420 Yeah, it gives Smith a good political spot to be in, but it still is a bad spot for Albertans to be in.

00:21:28.420 It makes an investment instability and it still doesn't make us look like a good place to put your money.

00:21:32.700 I want to put an open our blue sky here for kind of a crazy idea.

00:21:39.320 The NDPs opposed the Sovereignty Act because they see it as stopping the left in Alberta going back to Confederation.

00:21:48.360 has generally been more pro-Ottawa than the right by a significant margin

00:21:52.380 because more centralized federal control over Alberta results in outcomes that are more positive for the left.

00:22:01.280 And more decentralized control results in a more conservative Alberta.

00:22:06.940 But the NDP now has to wrestle with the near certainty that there's going to be a massive supermajority here,

00:22:14.020 poly, of government in Ottawa sooner than later.

00:22:18.360 Do you think it's, is the reason they're quiet on this because perhaps the NDP is thinking the Sovereignty Act can be used for leftist purposes.

00:22:26.320 So, you know, Polyev brings in a national ban on transgender sex change surgeries for minors.

00:22:37.060 And, you know, the Alberta NDP, and then she say, no, teenagers should be getting sex change operations paid for by the taxpayer. 1.00

00:22:45.280 uh and we think ottawa's acting unconstitutionally arguably maybe it would be because healthcare is

00:22:51.040 a provincial jurisdiction you can make the argument if if polio tried to do that nationally

00:22:56.880 is there a world in which the ndp aspire to use the sovereignty act themselves

00:23:03.360 to stop rightist encroachments on jurisdiction from ottawa i think you're giving mr nenshi

00:23:09.040 and the NDP, the Alberta NDP, too much credit for subtlety.

00:23:14.280 If there was to be such a time, it's some years hence.

00:23:18.620 On present indications, the Smith government should survive another election quite confidently.

00:23:28.260 I mean, things can go wrong in two years, but...

00:23:30.860 This is Alberta. They will go wrong.

00:23:32.740 Yeah, well, I mean, I know we've got our own sort of fifth column,

00:23:36.340 but people who just want to upset things for the sake of upsetting them.

00:23:40.400 But, you know, they were kind of very handily stuck under the thumb

00:23:44.820 and squashed there at the recent leadership review.

00:23:50.260 So I have a feeling that things are going to break Smith's way,

00:23:55.620 especially if there is a conservative government in Ottawa.

00:24:00.200 So if the NDP are thinking long term about how cool it would be

00:24:04.460 to be able to use the Sovereignty Act here.

00:24:08.120 They really are long-term thinkers, which is kind of ironic

00:24:13.400 if you were sort of a long-term seeking a seat.

00:24:17.000 You don't even have a seat yet, Mr. Nancy.

00:24:19.400 I don't think you would be thinking about how to apply your own version

00:24:23.660 of the Sovereignty Act in the years to come.

00:24:26.520 So it's a fun theory, but no, I think this is going to be Daniel's

00:24:33.080 and as for the as for the ndp being reflexively pro auto well well i i guess they're federal

00:24:42.520 they're part of a federal movement the alberta ndp are the branch of the branch of the federal

00:24:47.720 party so maybe they think that way but the real reason is they don't like the sovereignty act

00:24:51.800 because smith did it and people like it i think it's a strong political position to be in though

00:24:57.800 is always to have an enemy you're defending from outside you know that's what people thought

00:25:01.800 actually, the election of Trump would help Trudeau because, oh, see, I'm going to defend

00:25:05.160 Canada against Trump. People are, this is not the person to defend us against Trump. But I could see

00:25:09.880 the NDP wanting to have a foil in Ottawa with Polyev that they're saying, we've got to protect

00:25:15.440 Alberta from these crazed conservatives in Ottawa. I just don't know if they'd embrace the Sovereignty

00:25:20.180 Act as their tool to do it. They don't want to wear the policy of the past administration.

00:25:23.900 If you're Catholic, Northampton's trademark policy.

00:25:26.280 They could still do court challenges and railing and so on without the Sovereignty Act itself. But I

00:25:31.180 see them thinking that somehow they do have to position themselves as defenders of alberta

00:25:34.940 because that's a weak spot for them um all right how i i think this case you you you you touched

00:25:45.500 on this nigel you know if it was four years in four years yeah you'll probably get to a decision 0.92

00:25:50.700 in court uh i mean i i think it's unconstitutional but i don't sit in uh santa cost even on the

00:25:55.900 the Supreme Court. But I think Smith's got to rig the puck here for at most nine months,

00:26:03.780 at the absolute most nine months. And then this guy's out of office. They're all they're all done.

00:26:08.020 Very possibly less. The the Trump tariff crisis could end up actually triggering an election here.

00:26:18.180 Parliament is just an absolute total mess right now because we could have an election earlier.

00:26:22.780 I think she's only got to reg the puck for a few months on this.

00:26:29.160 So is there any chance that Trudeau and Gilbo's emissions cap ever actually sees a single day of enforcement in Alberta?

00:26:38.100 Well, I would say not.

00:26:39.240 But I mean, for all the reasons you've just given there, that they don't have to hold out for very long.

00:26:47.720 At the most, 11 months, well, nine, ten months.

00:26:51.780 with depending on how long uh how long an election campaign the government uh asked for 35 days as

00:26:58.660 the minimum it's been known to known to go longer uh no she can hang on and uh it's actually would 0.99

00:27:07.380 be fascinating to see what would happen if uh if a lame duck prime minister which frankly is what 0.99

00:27:15.380 we have at the moment not just a lame duck prime minister but a lame duck government has no moral

00:27:21.300 authority to govern as long as they keep resisting parliament on these all these papers actually

00:27:28.020 trying to come after a provincial premier i don't know maybe that would be a master stroke for them

00:27:34.420 they were defending canada against the rogue premier in alberta maybe that would be a

00:27:39.220 vote getter for them in some parts of the country but frankly i can't see it um you know we're

00:27:44.260 actually to slip an extra little mini section in here flowing from us about the possibility of an

00:27:50.420 early election here. And by early, I mean, that's, that's an air quotes, we should have

00:27:54.400 an election a long time. But I think the liberal move around the GST holiday and free money bribes

00:28:04.000 or to deal with the vibe session as, as Christia Freeland calls it. You know, she says the economy

00:28:11.280 is doing great. Everything is great. But the vibes are bad. By vibes, the vibe session, we mean,

00:28:16.860 you guys don't understand how excellent we are, how good we are at governing. So we're going to do

00:28:21.860 this stuff just to remind you that we're good at governing. That's the economic case for the vibe

00:28:27.000 session. It's the worst thing. It's the worst economic crisis since the Xi session that we had 1.00

00:28:33.180 during COVID, a recession that only affected Whitman, apparently. So that and the Trump tariff

00:28:41.020 crisis, both open up doors, I think, to an early election here. The GST thing was done, in part,

00:28:47.900 I think, to get the NDP to agree to a brief reprieve from the conservative filibuster going

00:28:55.020 on in Parliament right now for over two months, because the Liberals refused to give up the

00:28:59.660 documents unredacted from the Green Slush Fund. Because the NDP was asking for a version of this,

00:29:07.580 but an even more ridiculous and more generous version.

00:29:11.100 This is going to go to people who paid at least a dollar in income tax in 2023.

00:29:15.640 The NDP wanted to go to everybody who, even people who didn't even try to work,

00:29:19.620 it should just go to everyone with a pulse, essentially, and apply to even more products.

00:29:25.080 It's a mess.

00:29:27.320 But that bill would be a money bill.

00:29:30.260 Conservatives are against it.

00:29:32.000 Block has said, you didn't meet our demands, so we're going to bring you down.

00:29:34.780 And now the NDP have said, you're going to have to sweeten the pot on this even more or we're going to vote against it.

00:29:44.640 So the liberals might not even actually do this in the end because they were counting on NDP support.

00:29:50.600 They thought they had the NDP checkmated in a corner.

00:29:53.060 The NDP have said, no, no, it's not generous enough.

00:29:55.980 Start with you, Corey.

00:29:56.680 um well then also the trump side uh just that parliament even the nbp might come to the

00:30:04.540 conclusion trudeau can't sit with trump trump's not even taking the guy's calls at this point to 0.74

00:30:09.120 negotiate why would trump negotiate with someone who he knows is a lame duck is going to be out of

00:30:13.540 power in a few months anyway um what do you think the chances are that we're looking that parliament

00:30:19.720 could just fall here i think we're looking at a spring election i really do it's just falling

00:30:24.120 apart on all fronts. He can't hold it together. Trudeau can't get anything right. He's getting a

00:30:28.980 beating with every effort he does. Part of why you see Singh doing what he's doing as well is

00:30:32.820 because they see weakness. This is a man who's just on the ropes, and they're beating him while

00:30:37.480 he's down now. The only problem is he's too dumb to realize it. Eventually, though, he's going to 1.00

00:30:41.940 be pushed out. And his own caucus, I think, will be the catalyst. But I think part of it...

00:30:48.060 Well, they didn't in that last meeting, but he apparently broke into tears,

00:30:53.520 and made a bunch of promises on how he's going to turn everything around.

00:30:57.200 And if that bill is what the product of what he said,

00:31:00.700 you can bet they're shaking their heads right now

00:31:02.580 and saying there's nothing going to pull us out of this rut by this man.

00:31:06.180 Our best hope is just to get to the polls and say,

00:31:08.460 look, we're with you.

00:31:10.880 We've got to renew this government.

00:31:12.640 And, you know, I'm sorry it took so long.

00:31:15.360 Nigel, canceling an early election?

00:31:17.060 It's the pension thing, isn't it?

00:31:19.040 There are 80 MPs.

00:31:20.640 They're not all liberals.

00:31:21.440 a lot of conservatives so they'll still get in in the next uh yeah the conservatives don't have

00:31:26.160 anything to worry about they're they're on they're rolling but the ndp and uh liberal mps whose

00:31:32.960 hopes of a pension depend on getting re-elected or at least lasting until i think it's october the

00:31:39.520 27th uh which is why they moved the election which is why they do yeah they moved it back a

00:31:44.800 week and had nothing to do with the fact that they needed another was an obscure indian holiday

00:31:49.200 apparently yes yes well i guess it's not that obscure even i've heard of it but you know it's a

00:31:55.920 diwali i don't think it was too well no so it was something i haven't heard of okay well anyway

00:32:02.240 whatever it was they moved it for that so that's still a consideration and people can be awfully

00:32:09.760 faithful to their own self-interest for all the reasons that we've given yes you could get an

00:32:16.480 an early election, but where would you find enough principled people to vote and not bring the

00:32:22.700 government down? You'd need the NDP. It's not going to come from the Liberal caucus. What would be the

00:32:26.460 incentive? Well, the NDP have got people looking for pension, too. It's Mr. Singh, for a start.

00:32:31.980 It's true. And the NDP stands to lose some seats, not a ton of seats. Like, the Liberals are going

00:32:36.760 to lose nearly all of their seats. The NDP are probably going to lose some. And Singh's seat

00:32:41.700 even is in play. It's true.

00:32:43.960 But Singh

00:32:45.520 realizes that to save

00:32:47.660 the furniture of the NDP, he's trying to put

00:32:49.620 as much distance between him and the Liberals as possible.

00:32:53.240 Poland

00:32:53.460 being a part of the

00:32:55.740 opposition that pulls the trigger to bring the Liberals

00:32:57.860 down helps him do that

00:32:59.720 a lot better than simply waiting for the next

00:33:01.720 election. And then he has

00:33:03.580 zero defense against Polio

00:33:05.720 saying this is the Liberal NDP

00:33:07.860 coalition. He's trying to put some

00:33:09.700 distance because he knows

00:33:10.800 the liberals are a milestone chain to him right now and he's a deep water and politically i mean

00:33:17.180 that's where i keep you know on on social media twisting the knife i call him jag meet the week

00:33:21.100 every time he tries to get up and bark at true come on guys we see right through that you have

00:33:25.600 the power to pull him down anytime you like and you won't do it you're all talk all bluster and

00:33:31.260 nose backbone and we're probably having the rest are going to keep doing that to him if he drags

00:33:35.540 that out all the way in the next october taking those knives for that he doesn't have much of a

00:33:40.180 case you see you dragged that right out to the bitter end when Canadians won an election why

00:33:44.060 on earth should we put you and your gang back into power so he's got to be careful okay well

00:33:48.820 you know who wins all this is Derek because he's got young children there's no GST on Christmas

00:33:53.100 toys oh you see we knew there was a motivation I can't understand why I'm pulling all the strings

00:33:58.760 here yeah I'm pulling all the strings uh okay let's uh let's move it up uh the return of coal

00:34:04.960 country in Alberta. So this this goes back all the way to the

00:34:11.560 Kenny government here. So company of Australia, Northback

00:34:16.600 Coal, very Canadian sounding name for Northback Holdings.

00:34:20.800 Yeah, Northback Holdings. But you know, they're they're a

00:34:24.340 mining outfit and they want to mine metallurgical coal in

00:34:27.940 Alberta. Now that is, that's coal used for making metal you

00:34:31.540 those big windmills that the NDP like, well you need a metallurgical coal to do that. This is

00:34:37.540 not coal for burning, you know, for like an old coal-fired power plant like you used to have.

00:34:47.300 Now that was to be in the Crow's Nest Pass, which a lot of people, some know, some don't,

00:34:55.300 was, I'm not sure if it was the first major coal mine in Alberta, but it was,

00:34:59.700 it became the major coal mine because it's a major pass through the Rockies.

00:35:02.980 And it was it was a critically important it was a strategic location for the railway coming through

00:35:08.580 as Canada was being stitched together with the railway, because they can mine it there and refill

00:35:14.420 the trains right as they're entering or leaving the Rockies. So it was critically important. Now

00:35:20.180 that that was shut down over time. North back wants to open up I think it's called the grassy

00:35:26.340 Hill's mine right by it. Grassy Mountain. And there seems to be a lot of local support for it

00:35:35.620 in the Crow's Nest Pass itself. Some ranchers on the outside opposed it, but primarily most

00:35:41.220 of the opposition seemed to be coming from the blue haired greenies living in the two big cities.

00:35:47.060 And curiously, and for reasons no one can quite say without potentially committing defamation,

00:35:54.900 Cor Blund, just randomly opposing it. We don't, I should say, I can't say on air what he just seems to randomly oppose this, but he does. Okay. And anyway, this kind of blew up on Jason Kenney before his premiership was totally toast, but he was already kind of getting on the rocks.

00:36:15.160 But, you know, he still had some political capital left.

00:36:17.920 But they pulled the plug on it because the Greenies were saying there is local opposition to it.

00:36:25.700 Well, they came back under the new Smith government, said that we want to do this.

00:36:31.080 Smith said, well, you have to prove you've got local support.

00:36:33.000 So they had a non-binding plebiscite.

00:36:36.040 I think that was Monday.

00:36:38.260 Monday.

00:36:39.860 I think I've got my numbers right here.

00:36:41.760 it was roughly 52% turnout around there, which is far, far higher than most turnout for municipal

00:36:48.580 elections. And 72% of residents in the Crow's Nest Pass voted to support the mine.

00:36:57.660 They've got their support, no question.

00:36:59.780 That's a bigger democratic mandate for this. This mine has more democratic support than most

00:37:03.960 politicians in Canada at this point. So, you know, the ball is back in the court of the government

00:37:10.220 now it's with daniel smith and uh energy minister brian gene um uh dangel uh do you think the mind's

00:37:19.980 going forward from here or uh you know because it turned out all the all the most of the opposition

00:37:26.460 turned out not actually to be from the locals as the greenies claim it comes from downtown

00:37:30.140 edmonton and calgary from people who who just think coal's a dirty word mining is a dirty word

00:37:35.420 but they still expect the electric light come on when they flick the switch and that if they've got

00:37:40.700 an electric charge car that the opposition came from people who need the methodological goal to

00:37:44.780 make their damn windmills right so anyway look um this as there is an existing mind there the

00:37:53.660 this particular project is in a different category to what we would call a greenfield site it's uh 0.99

00:38:01.100 classified as an advanced project and therefore is exempt from a number of considerations that

00:38:07.500 would apply to anything that was greenfield now i want to draw attention to um really uh

00:38:13.420 really well composed opinion piece that came out about well about 10 o'clock this morning from

00:38:20.860 murray lightly one of our regular writers a former neb commissioner and he took a look at this and

00:38:27.500 he writes as follows on the current publicly available data the project is exempt from this

00:38:35.420 1976 development ban and is on category four developable land which is significant it will

00:38:43.820 recontour and rehabilitate significantly disturbed it's in other words where they were mining before

00:38:49.100 will get cleaned up the environmental impacts and mitigations of a proposed coal miner similar to

00:38:56.300 other elk valley and eastern slope coal mines and thus are well understood there is a mitigation

00:39:03.340 proposal for dealing with selenium don't ask me to explain selenium but it's a big deal

00:39:08.860 the local community is solidly behind the project as we have just discussed

00:39:13.100 70 percent of 52 percent two of the four adjacent first nations are supportive

00:39:19.820 The project would create 400 permanent jobs, $1.7 billion in project life revenue, and $34 million to local governments.

00:39:32.360 Now, if I had written that, what do I know?

00:39:36.320 But coming from somebody who has had to review many projects in the energy field, that to me seems like a pretty solid case.

00:39:45.640 So look it up.

00:39:46.860 It's the Western Standard.

00:39:48.120 Barry Lytle came out about 10 o'clock this morning.

00:39:51.360 It's there under the opinion column.

00:39:54.160 And, you know, he makes the point.

00:39:56.840 If in the future the project proponent puts forward a well-engineered and complete project development proposal that adequately mitigates environmental concerns,

00:40:08.220 then, first of all, the people down in the Crowstown's past should have what they want.

00:40:13.800 And secondly, we'll all be the winners.

00:40:15.640 of course I know the area I've worked down there did survey down there uh there is a lot of area

00:40:22.640 a lot of unreclaimed coal facilities straight north of Blairmore Coleman area if you go into

00:40:27.100 those towns I mean as beautiful as the area is they are fairly depressed towns they're old coal 1.00

00:40:30.840 towns you can tell yeah uh I think the project's fantastic I know we have mitigation things to keep

00:40:36.580 the the environmental harm to a minimum uh selenium is a concern I worked in West Virginia

00:40:41.560 there are creeks down there that are still of some of the funkiest colors you've ever seen

00:40:45.840 because of some of the stuff they did with their coal mines. I mean, that's, but whether or not I

00:40:49.780 think, and, and others think it's a good viable project, I don't know if it's ever going to get

00:40:53.640 off the ground because coal has been so villainized. The court challenges, the protests, the

00:40:58.880 headaches, the, the opposition. I really hope it goes for the sake of there, for the sake of Alberta,

00:41:04.120 for the sake of revenue. I just will see because they're going to come out guns a blast and because

00:41:08.920 It's really easy to oppose coal, especially when you're playing on the ignorance of people who are thinking of things like West Virginia or thinking even of London during the big fog.

00:41:16.700 I mean, coal is a nasty, evil thing, despite the fact that it brought us through the Industrial Revolution.

00:41:22.900 And coal today is nothing like what people think of in the past.

00:41:25.700 But the opponents are going to use those visions of the past.

00:41:27.900 And this is not even thermal coal.

00:41:30.440 No.

00:41:30.760 This is metallurgical coal.

00:41:32.200 Yeah.

00:41:32.520 So I really I'm good.

00:41:34.280 It's good to see the courage with them trying to put this forward, though.

00:41:36.380 I hope they carry on.

00:41:37.140 I think the government now needs to back this.

00:41:41.080 The Smith government needs to step up and back this project.

00:41:44.820 But I think they can, maybe we put the ball back in the court of the greenies here. 1.00

00:41:51.460 Make a deal.

00:41:52.980 There won't be any coal mining in Alberta.

00:41:55.060 No metallurgical coal mining.

00:41:57.060 But we're going to remove all the windmills then too.

00:41:59.480 Or at least we won't build any more windmills.

00:42:01.960 No metallurgical coal.

00:42:03.840 No windmills.

00:42:04.760 You want windmills?

00:42:05.460 You're going to get metallurgical coal.

00:42:07.140 pick you can have you can keep the windmills you got and we can have some metallurgical coal

00:42:11.320 or if you want to stop metallurgical coal fine fine fine okay we'll let you win

00:42:16.200 we're banning we're banning wind the hypocrisy is big too you only have to drive 20 more kilometers

00:42:21.560 west into sparwood and you see a mountain that's chopped off on the top that's a british columbia

00:42:25.880 ndp coal mine that's been going for a long time and still going great guns you got tumbler ridge

00:42:30.020 same thing it's going on up there bc has no problems pumping that coal out like nobody's

00:42:34.360 business. Apparently, as usual, it's only bad when Alberta wants to float over Robert's bank recently where they exported from massive piles of pools over the barges and gentlemen are parting shots. I'll I'll do I normally do my parting shot last. But today I'm going to go first. New seat projection out from the latest polls. I don't have who did it off the top of my mind here might be 338, but I'm not positive. Of course, conservatives in first with more than

00:43:04.340 three quarters of the seats in Parliament, just an absolute crushing uber majority run out of ways to describe this, but an uber majority with the bloc quebecois as the official opposition.

00:43:16.340 But what's changing is the Liberals not even in third, with the NDP in third and the Liberals dropping to fourth in the seat count somewhere between the Green Party and the NDP.

00:43:29.340 You know, Trudeau, I think, rightfully deserves credit, good for the country or not, for saving the Liberal Party, bring him from third place to first place.

00:43:40.460 That was quite a feat in 2015, credit where it's due.

00:43:43.960 But on track, potentially, to leave it in fourth place.

00:43:47.840 So to quote Wyatt and Wyatt's torch from Atlas Shrugged, when he burned his oil wells to the ground, I left it as I found it.

00:44:03.400 You can have it.

00:44:06.160 But he might leave it even more desolatory than he found it.

00:44:09.400 He torched the neighbor's well.

00:44:10.620 This might be the final death of the oil wells.

00:44:13.360 That would have been a great closing parting shot.

00:44:17.360 Maybe I should have left my last as usual.

00:44:22.360 See if Mikko can edit that.

00:44:24.360 My parting shot is, I was looking at Kevin O'Leary's comment.

00:44:30.360 He says, Trump shouldn't bother talking to Trudeau.

00:44:33.360 He should go straight to Poirier.

00:44:35.360 Western Standard published that this morning.

00:44:38.360 You know, that's actually not wrong.

00:44:42.360 Well, it wouldn't help Mr. Polaire very much to be perceived as unpatriotically dealing with Trump.

00:44:49.720 But here's the thing.

00:44:51.100 Talking about a party shot, you've actually, the reason that the tariffs are going on both Mexico and Canada is why?

00:45:01.680 Because they don't have a handle on the drug trade.

00:45:05.540 They don't have a handle on legal immigration.

00:45:08.320 And we don't. 0.99

00:45:09.260 I just think it's ironic that it takes a U.S. president threatening that might make a Canadian prime minister do the damn job. 0.98

00:45:18.360 I'd actually correct you on one point. 0.94

00:45:20.080 Canada's problem is not illegal immigration.

00:45:22.640 It is legal immigration because we have completely opened up the doors and made any migration period legal.

00:45:29.060 Well, that's a nice point.

00:45:29.980 But the thing is that they're finding their way out of Canada across the border.

00:45:33.020 They've become illegals in the states, but they come here legally because we got rid of all border controls. 0.99

00:45:37.720 So we are not stopping the flow over the border.

00:45:41.840 And that's what they're worried about.

00:45:43.840 All right, I'll hit quick.

00:45:45.280 I'm a Frank Zappa fan, have been for a long time. 0.98

00:45:47.820 He's got a song called Dancing Fool, which is about, well, a fool who's not self-aware. 0.70

00:45:53.200 One of the lines from it is, one leg's shorter than the other and both of my feet's too long 0.98

00:45:56.320 as he dances in circles around the floor and people laugh at him. 0.99

00:45:59.840 And it's just a look at Trudeau with his dancing at the Taylor Swift concert like a fool 0.99

00:46:04.420 while Montreal is burning. 0.99

00:46:07.100 I understand he's a father. He has a right to get out and do things. But the optics showing because that's just a metaphor for his entire term.

00:46:13.880 Simplistic, idiotic, short term self-serving actions. You know, he's surfing, he's doing other things while serious business is left unattended. 1.00

00:46:21.460 So, yes, just a shout out to our dancing fool in Ottawa. He's leaving on the dumbest note as usual. 0.99

00:46:26.720 All right, gentlemen, thank you. And thank you all for joining us on the pipeline here today.

00:46:31.500 If you're not yet a member of the Western Standard, you really need to be.

00:46:34.960 The Western Standard is part of one of only roughly three or four media of any size left in Canada

00:46:40.760 that refuse to take Justin Trudeau's federal media bailout subsidies.

00:46:45.100 If you want there to be any free press left in Canada, you need to support it.

00:46:49.380 Go to westernstandard.news right now.

00:46:51.380 Click on subscribe. It's only $10 a month or $100 a year for unlimited access.

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00:47:03.960 Thank you very much for joining us today, and God bless.

Western Standard - November 28, 2024

Trump. Trudeau. Tariffs

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