Western Standard - US Election Live Coverage

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00:02:00.000 Good evening, I'm Derek Fildebrandt, publisher of the Western

00:02:29.600 Standard. You're joining us for a special US election night coverage. I'm very excited to

00:02:38.160 have you with us tonight. If you're not yet a member of the Western Standard, go to westernstandard.news

00:02:43.180 right now, click on subscribe and become a member and support one of the only bailout free media

00:02:47.600 left in Canada. Speaking of Canada, it's not about Canada tonight. Tonight we're watching

00:02:52.700 the big United States general election, the presidency up for grabs, the Senate up for grabs,

00:02:59.600 the house up for grabs, and a bunch of other races that we're probably not going to be talking about.

00:03:05.300 I'm joined by two of my favorite people, Western Standard Opinion Editor, Nigel Hannaford.

00:03:12.080 Hello, Derek. Big night.

00:03:13.900 Big night. And Western Standard Senior Alberta Columbus, Corey Morgan.

00:03:18.380 Looking forward to an interesting night. Hope we see some conclusions at some point.

00:03:22.400 We'll see. Our objective, we're not going to, you know, we don't have a bunch of commercials rolling,

00:03:27.960 So we actually don't make any money by going any later, trying to retain eyeballs for no reason.

00:03:32.540 So our goal tonight, they actually shut off the air conditioning in our building after like 5 o'clock in the evening.

00:03:41.880 So it's going to be hot in here.

00:03:43.060 So we have every incentive to wrap this up at some point.

00:03:46.860 Our objective is to try and wrap it up by 11.

00:03:50.340 If it looks like we might get close to a call and we're at 11 o'clock, maybe we'll go a little longer.

00:03:56.360 But our goal is to try and pull the pin on this by 11 and be done.

00:04:01.340 We've got a great, great lineup of guests.

00:04:04.860 This is thanks mostly to Nigel Hannaford.

00:04:08.060 We've got Brian Lee Crowley of the McDonnell Laurier Institute,

00:04:12.240 a very prestigious think tank based in Ottawa.

00:04:16.000 One of the smartest guys you're ever going to hear.

00:04:19.440 He's going to be our first guest with us tonight.

00:04:23.120 We're going to have former U.S. Ambassador to Canada, who served under George W. Bush, David Wilkins.

00:04:30.600 Hell of a guest. I can't think of someone much more relevant to have on than that.

00:04:35.620 He's going to be coming to us from South Carolina.

00:04:38.280 We're going to have Simon Hankinson coming to us from New Hampshire.

00:04:42.720 He is from the Heritage Foundation, a major U.S. think tank.

00:04:46.860 We're going to have Ted Morton, former Alberta Finance Minister, coming to us from Montana.

00:04:51.520 I think he's coming from Westmont.

00:04:52.740 Yeah, he lives there now, so he'll be.

00:04:54.900 He's a dual citizen.

00:04:57.340 He's not a watch party, but he'll break away for us.

00:04:59.980 Yeah.

00:05:00.560 And we're going to have David Knight-Lague coming to us from Edmonton.

00:05:03.900 David Knight-Lague has worked in the Alberta government,

00:05:07.240 but he's also worked internationally as a major kind of top-level businessman

00:05:12.340 and is a real expert in U.S. politics.

00:05:16.200 Not a guest, but someone not in the studio here,

00:05:19.440 but coming to us from the newsroom.

00:05:20.480 We're going to bring him in now is Western Standard News editor and chief editor Dave Naylor coming to us from the Western Standard Newsroom.

00:05:27.940 I can actually see him through the glass over here.

00:05:29.940 I can see the back of it.

00:05:30.920 I can see the beautiful back of Dave's head here.

00:05:34.280 Dave is going to be giving us regular updates, rudely interrupting from time to time as the states get called.

00:05:40.740 We're not going to call the states.

00:05:42.860 We're going to make our guesses, but we're going to more or less follow the lead of the major American networks.

00:05:47.180 They've got a lot of detail on these things.

00:05:50.480 But we're going to be updating things as the night goes.

00:05:54.000 Dave will be rudely interrupting from time to time as the states get called.

00:05:57.780 Dave, what do you got to tell us?

00:06:00.560 Well, I got to tell you that former President Trump is out to an early lead in the Electoral College vote.

00:06:07.600 And I'll let you guys explain that to the viewers because it's beyond my capable thinking.

00:06:13.540 We got Trump leading right now 178 votes to 113.

00:06:18.740 I'll give just a very quick rundown on who's won what.

00:06:23.040 Harris has won Delaware, Illinois, Virginia, New Jersey.

00:06:28.080 Trump wins Indiana.

00:06:30.660 Harris wins Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, District of Columbia.

00:06:35.140 Trump wins Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama.

00:06:41.100 And Trump wins West Virginia.

00:06:44.260 Trump wins South Carolina and Indiana and Kentucky, and Harris has claimed Vermont.

00:06:51.620 So right now it's a fairly substantial lead, but that can change very, very quickly.

00:06:58.060 Interestingly, the New York Times has got a live presidential forecaster,

00:07:03.620 which is now definitely leaning in Trump's favor.

00:07:07.160 They've got a prediction of Trump, 270 to Harris, 258.

00:07:12.480 And, of course, 270 is the magic figure.

00:07:17.060 And, Derek, you just got to wonder about all those people watching from B.C.

00:07:20.780 who are trying to get their heads wrapped around the fact that you can have an election

00:07:24.020 and have the ballots cast and counted the same day.

00:07:28.200 Well, it's state by state.

00:07:30.660 So some of the states will be done today.

00:07:34.100 And really, you know, there's the hard blue states.

00:07:36.280 there's the hard red states uh you can make pretty early predictions based on the different

00:07:41.480 counties coming in based on historical predictors um but i you know i i'm not sure bc gets to uh

00:07:48.800 be that obvious of some states i think pennsylvania pennsylvania could be going on a long time uh we

00:07:54.160 all remember think back i was in high school not watching this in terribly much detail but i remember

00:07:57.880 back in high school with the bush gore election florida that got hung up into the courts for

00:08:02.600 months before uh that election was certified dangling chads uh no hanging chance hanging

00:08:08.920 chance you're mixing it with dingleberries right uh okay i want to make us make sure my numbers

00:08:16.280 are matching yours dave uh i've got 105 electoral actually maybe we'll just quickly stop uh nigel 0.93

00:08:23.240 why don't you just really kind of high level give us the cole's notes on the electoral college 0.81

00:08:27.960 because i think a lot of canadians don't understand that yeah it's it's a unique

00:08:34.360 system to the united states so every state has a certain number of delegates who will vote for the

00:08:40.840 president according to what the uh what the popular vote is the electoral college is not set

00:08:47.080 in stone as the population of a state increases so will the number of votes in their electoral

00:08:53.480 college, but it just sort of smooths out the process from the popular vote, which some

00:09:00.280 people think is a good thing, and obviously, if you're on the losing end, you think it's

00:09:03.920 a terrible thing, but what we're looking, when you see these numbers down the side,

00:09:11.120 and it's 270 to win, that's not seats in Congress, not seats anywhere. It is electoral college

00:09:19.400 votes. Okay, let me explain. Nico, let's pull up my screen here with the map. I'll flip this

00:09:26.020 out a little, just a little bit more. The number of electoral college votes that a given state gets

00:09:31.340 is based on its number of delegates to Congress. So every state has two senators. So at a minimum,

00:09:39.080 every state has two electoral college votes, plus it's one House of Representative vote.

00:09:47.240 So if you look in this little corner here, tiny Vermont, three, that means they have one member of the House of Representatives, because they're a small population, and two senators.

00:09:59.580 So that's really the minimum that a state can have.

00:10:02.400 District of Columbia has three, but it has no senators.

00:10:05.700 It has only members in the House of Representatives.

00:10:07.720 So that's its contribution.

00:10:10.100 So you've got a large state like California, they've got 55.

00:10:13.540 54, yeah.

00:10:14.280 So that means California has 52 members of Congress, sorry, members of the House of Representatives, and it has two senators, therefore, 54 electoral college votes.

00:10:26.300 It's actually fairly simple, and it was part of the original bargain to create, you know, it might be on the Articles of Confederation, you know, creating the American Constitution that we know now post-revolution.

00:10:37.960 That was kind of a part of the deal, balancing big states and small states.

00:10:41.920 Okay, well, we've got a good and growing audience here.

00:10:48.720 Before we go to our first guest, Brian Lee Crowley,

00:10:50.680 I just want to make sure our numbers are on par here.

00:10:53.900 Let's bring Dave back in.

00:10:55.740 Dave, I think you mentioned a number higher than I've got.

00:10:58.900 I've got 105 on the map here.

00:11:01.620 I've got 105 Electoral College votes for Trump and 87 for Kamala Harris. 0.77

00:11:08.000 You're just way behind, Derek, just way behind.

00:11:10.440 Well, OK, so I've got West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina for Trump.

00:11:22.540 Trump has also just won Ohio and Texas.

00:11:27.340 Ohio and Texas.

00:11:28.580 Ohio is a big one.

00:11:30.200 Now, that's been leaning a bit Republican.

00:11:32.380 But so Ohio, the networks have called Ohio.

00:11:37.120 Who's called it?

00:11:38.180 Yes, NBC calls Trump to win Texas.

00:11:42.380 And I'm trying to find out who called it for Ohio.

00:11:46.360 So there's 38 for Texas.

00:11:48.580 The inside paper decision desk, Trump wins Ohio.

00:11:53.660 A couple of people are reporting that now.

00:11:56.480 Okay, so Ohio, are any of the major networks calling Ohio?

00:11:59.660 Or who's calling Ohio?

00:12:02.380 Just a few of the lower level websites.

00:12:06.260 They've been right all along tonight, though.

00:12:09.180 Okay.

00:12:09.540 Well, I'm going to keep Ohio in the leaning Republican category then for now.

00:12:14.240 Not called yet.

00:12:17.620 Okay.

00:12:17.920 Thank you very much, Dave.

00:12:19.220 Nico, let's just pull up the screen quick here.

00:12:23.380 We're just going to look at the map before we go to Mr. Crowley.

00:12:29.820 So Trump has a strong early lead, but let's remember.

00:12:32.980 uh so you look at the map here there's some light blue some dark blue there's some dark red there's

00:12:40.580 some light red the light blues are states that we could just pretty pretty reliably say are leaning

00:12:47.280 are gonna go democratic there's just california is gonna go democratic alaska is gonna go republican

00:12:53.440 so you can pretty much put them in the bank even though they're not called yet when we've got the

00:12:57.160 dark colors it's the major networks have have called them um so you know like so the way the

00:13:05.000 whole west coast is going to go blue almost no matter what so you can expect that even though

00:13:10.520 it's not called for kamala harris yet uh but uh so that's not that's where we're at uh fairly

00:13:17.000 strong early lead for uh for donald trump uh if he takes ohio uh i think he's got a i think he has

00:13:22.920 to take Ohio. That's kind of a must-win for Trump.

00:13:25.540 If he doesn't win Ohio, I don't

00:13:26.980 think he's president. It really

00:13:28.840 narrows his choices. I think then it comes to

00:13:30.720 he has to win Pennsylvania or some of those major

00:13:32.960 swings going on there.

00:13:36.320 There's so many different combinations, but they start getting narrower and narrower

00:13:38.860 once you lose something like Ohio.

00:13:40.660 It's different paths, and

00:13:41.900 they diminish quickly.

00:13:44.960 My big predictor,

00:13:46.340 maybe I'll have to eat crow,

00:13:48.000 my big predictor is that whoever wins

00:13:49.860 Pennsylvania is going to be president.

00:13:53.800 okay uh let's bring in our first guest brian lee crowley uh brian i have i haven't talked to you

00:14:02.120 uh i think we bumped into each other really briefly at conferences or whatnot but we haven't

00:14:06.440 had a proper chinwag in some time well and uh what a great occasion to have one because there's so

00:14:12.120 much to talk about well we're so eager to hear uh uh you talk about it um so brian lee crowley is uh

00:14:19.720 is it executive director of the managing director managing director of the mcdonald laurier institute

00:14:25.760 uh i i first met you uh you were on a book tour and i was just some puke young guy with the 0.95

00:14:31.560 canadian taxpayers federation we ended up speaking somewhere in ajax or somewhere stupid um sorry

00:14:37.780 ajax um but um yeah uh brian lee crelly is one of the the smartest public intellectuals in the 0.77

00:14:44.760 country, runs a fantastic think tank, the McDonald Laurier Institute, and has got a lot of insight

00:14:50.440 for us. Let's start kind of high level, Brian, based on what we've got so far. What are your

00:14:59.340 main takeaways? Well, so I think a lot of people quite naturally are focused very tightly on the

00:15:06.680 state by state race. But I think we have to dig into this a little more. Because even in the states

00:15:13.340 where Kamala Harris is winning, the data is telling us some things about the strength of

00:15:19.240 her coalition vis-a-vis Trump today and vis-a-vis the coalition that Biden put together four years

00:15:26.560 ago. On every one of those measures, Kamala Harris is doing worse than Biden. She's doing 1.00

00:15:33.180 worse than Biden on black men. She's doing worse than Biden on black women. She's doing worse than 1.00

00:15:40.040 Biden on Hispanics. And those are must-win pieces of a Democratic winning coalition.

00:15:49.640 I'm not saying that Trump is winning a majority in those, but for example, in Florida, a big swing

00:16:02.280 of about eight percent, apparently, of Hispanics away from the Democrats to the Republicans.

00:16:09.720 swings like that uh which don't necessarily show up in the state level results but will

00:16:15.640 have a big cumulative effect on the outcome of the election so i know last time uh especially in

00:16:23.160 miami uh the numbers of uh hispanics and uh in particular uh black voters uh there was a huge

00:16:31.880 shift because even though uh so you're you're saying that based on the exit you're seeing

00:16:37.080 exit polls you're seeing right now, Trump is outperforming his performance last time, 2020,

00:16:42.660 with Blacks and Hispanics. But Trump in 2020 outperformed every Republican with Black voters,

00:16:48.920 at least, I'm not sure about Hispanics, but with Black voters, at least, going back to roughly

00:16:54.260 1960. Again, no Republican wins a majority among the Black votes. It hasn't happened 0.51

00:17:02.240 possibly since Reconstruction, but he's done stronger with them before.

00:17:08.360 And you're saying he's outperforming last time,

00:17:10.520 which was the high watermark for Republicans since the 60s.

00:17:13.300 Yeah, you see, you're quite right.

00:17:15.980 We're not talking about winning the absolute majority in these groups.

00:17:21.040 We're talking about swing from Democrats to Republicans,

00:17:26.560 which is much stronger than I think anybody predicted.

00:17:32.240 And so if this is borne out across the United States, what this will mean is quite likely in very tight states, especially the swing states that we are all familiar with, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, et cetera, et cetera, that where where tiny shifts may make the difference right now is to Trump.

00:17:57.560 that's really interesting brian and i i wonder when we see these unexpected switches what's

00:18:08.440 causing it what did we miss the first time around um what do you think is going on

00:18:16.600 well you see i i i think there's always a true tremendously important subterranean dimension to

00:18:23.400 politics uh you know we we put a lot of emphasis on what the pollsters are telling us for example

00:18:30.120 because the pollsters are busy talking to voters or at least potential voters uh but the question

00:18:35.960 you then always have to ask yourself is uh who are pollsters talking to and are the people they

00:18:41.800 they're talking to telling them the truth if for example trump voters feel that uh the powers that

00:18:49.160 be in their society don't approve of voting for Trump and they think that pollsters represent

00:18:56.760 say the mainstream media or you know the large newspapers the television networks or whatever

00:19:03.240 and they don't trust them they might well not reveal their preferences to pollsters and the

00:19:11.800 the result of this is that you know we get all caught up in oh there's a scientific method in

00:19:17.800 determining uh you know how people are going to vote and so on it all depends on whether you can

00:19:22.680 get the the right people to give you the right information and i i think that there's that

00:19:29.560 uh polling has always underestimated the strength of donald trump i don't think that's any different

00:19:34.680 this time around uh and in fact uh after uh all the court cases and you know attacks on uh on

00:19:44.760 trump and his credibility and his character some of which are justified don't get me wrong uh but

00:19:50.760 the people who are committed to trump uh i think many of them have said you know this is not

00:19:58.440 something i'm going to share with anybody uh i'm not going to tell pollsters i'm just going to go

00:20:03.880 into the polling booth and mark my ballot and you know you look at how for example uh barack obama

00:20:11.800 really condescended to black voters and basically you know he he told them that hey if if you don't

00:20:21.360 vote for the democratic candidate somehow you're you're letting down the side and i actually think

00:20:28.140 that this has uh harmed uh the standing of the democrats with a number of people in uh in the

00:20:35.760 black community who say, I don't need Barack Obama to tell me how to vote.

00:20:42.620 Brian, do you think that there was one particular moment when the whole thing started to swing?

00:20:48.680 I mean, there are various candidates. It could have been the debate between Trump and Biden,

00:20:54.120 but of course they fixed Biden. It could have been when Trump got shot. It could have been a

00:20:59.940 number of things. Is there one that stands out to you as when you thought people are going to

00:21:04.460 people are going to move now well you see i i i'm a bit of a betting man i i i don't hesitate to bet

00:21:14.460 uh at least on elections and um i i was i was calling this election for trump

00:21:22.120 months ago i i actually don't think that there's been a huge shift i think what's happened over

00:21:30.840 course of the campaign is a number of people were confirmed in the way that they were already leaning

00:21:36.680 i i think uh you know the democrats tried to get rid of joe biden tried to distance themselves from

00:21:44.440 uh the biden legacy uh and yet chose his vice president who's got to wear

00:21:52.040 the the results of the biden presidency there's no way she can escape them

00:21:56.040 uh he he named her the person that had top responsibility for the border the

00:22:02.920 control of the border and immigration is one of the top of mind issues for american voters

00:22:08.360 uh i i just think kamala harris in retrospect is going to turn out to have been a very poor

00:22:15.240 choice of candidate for the uh for the democrats and i i think all of this simply confirmed

00:22:21.320 the way that the bulk of Americans were leaning heading into the campaign. I don't think there's

00:22:31.320 been a moment when there's been a huge shift. I think everything over the course of the campaign

00:22:36.900 has simply confirmed in people's minds what they were already thinking heading into the campaign.

00:22:42.240 Okay. Well, interesting. That's what some of us were thinking.

00:22:46.860 and and derek i'm going to tell you that ap ap has called ohio for trump

00:22:52.600 ap has called ohio for trump yeah so uh well that's a big one here let's uh nico let's bring

00:22:59.700 up the map here uh i'm gonna do my my wish.com version of wolf blitzer um so uh ohio on the

00:23:09.800 map that is a must win for trump i that doesn't mean uh he's gonna win but if he did not win

00:23:16.260 ohio i do not think he was going to win uh trump taking ohio that's that's a big one cory so yeah

00:23:22.600 this is going to be another rust belt election i guess the way they put it right i mean that's

00:23:26.620 really kind of the battleground zone you still got michigan wisconsin some of those areas that

00:23:30.720 might be in flux as well but i mean ohio is a pretty positive sign i guess if it's going to

00:23:34.940 be called wouldn't it be i i completely agree with derek i i just can't see trump winning

00:23:43.060 without Ohio. And remember that J.D. Vance is a senator from Ohio.

00:23:51.200 I think he's come out of this election rather well. I think he's established himself as a

00:23:57.420 national political figure now. He has a big following in that state. Ohio has been trending

00:24:03.100 republic. It used to be a very finely balanced state, very much a toss-up. It's leaning more

00:24:12.280 and more Republican, a bit like Florida.

00:24:14.040 Florida used to be such a toss-up state, not so anymore.

00:24:19.000 And I've always thought that Ohio was going to go for Trump.

00:24:23.240 I think the real question marks remain Michigan and Pennsylvania principally.

00:24:32.140 All right.

00:24:33.120 Well, Brian, I'm very grateful for your time and your insights.

00:24:36.900 I'm told you may be able to join us later.

00:24:43.420 My plan is to be available if you need me.

00:24:47.000 I love it.

00:24:47.740 Now, I appreciate also you're on Eastern Standard Time.

00:24:52.520 So it's going to be a bit faster bedtime.

00:24:55.400 But I have a feeling you're going to be up a while anyway.

00:24:57.340 But as I always like to remind people, Derek, I am a Westerner, born and raised.

00:25:02.900 And I don't mind staying up on Western time.

00:25:06.900 god bless you thank you very much uh brian lee crowley uh managing uh managing director of the

00:25:14.420 mcdonald laureates thank you very much talk to you later okay uh before we go to our next

00:25:19.620 get 18 that's 18 uh electoral college votes 17. boy what chart did you i'm using 270 to win.com

00:25:28.980 okay that's what i got here but anyway that's uh yeah 17 on this one apparently yeah 17 electoral

00:25:34.580 college votes all right uh okay uh so before we go to our deal anyway pardon big deal anyway very

00:25:41.340 big deal that's a very big deal uh ohio going uh for trump uh before we bring in our next guest

00:25:47.220 our next guest will be uh david wilkins he is the uh former u.s ambassador to canada serving

00:25:53.580 under the george w bush uh administration before we go to him though uh let's just check in with

00:25:59.280 dave naylor in the newsroom who is uh watching the big networks uh dave uh so uh associated

00:26:07.660 press reporting ohio goes for trump uh any any other major calls since we chatted last

00:26:14.260 the big one seems to be uh texas that's got 40 electoral votes uh so uh current standing now

00:26:22.420 trump has passed the 200 uh electoral vote mark and it's now sitting at 210 for trump

00:26:28.460 Okay, so I'm six short. I'm at 162, so let's go through it here.

00:26:34.760 Well, I'm looking at the 270towin.com presidential race, 210 for Trump, 95 for Harris.

00:26:44.380 Okay, I want to see the states.

00:26:46.260 Nico, let's bring up the map.

00:26:47.980 Dave can look at this map and see what we're missing here.

00:26:50.760 We've got Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina.

00:27:05.600 Who are we missing?

00:27:06.900 You're missing quite a few.

00:27:11.400 Now I've got to remember my grade six geography.

00:27:14.360 These are all Trump. Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas.

00:27:25.800 Sorry, Kansas, Louisiana. These are all called for Trump now?

00:27:30.060 Yes, according to 270 to win.

00:27:33.000 Well, that's at 191.

00:27:35.940 So you got Missouri. What the heck is NE?

00:27:41.460 New England or Nebraska?

00:27:45.600 Nebraska.

00:27:46.720 Nebraska is one of the two.

00:27:50.620 There are two states, M-E and N-E, Nebraska and Maine.

00:27:56.720 The winner of the first place, winner of the popular vote,

00:27:59.360 gets one electoral college vote.

00:28:01.940 And then they do the rest by congressional district.

00:28:04.000 So it's possible to have split.

00:28:06.180 Two and one, yeah.

00:28:06.860 It's possible to have two to one or even two to two if you're Nebraska.

00:28:11.460 Yeah. They've also got North Carolina going Trump, which is not on that map.

00:28:18.920 Who called North Carolina?

00:28:21.820 270towin.com.

00:28:23.360 Any of the major networks calling it yet that you see?

00:28:25.860 No, but they've been pretty spot on. And I think Fox still has Fox has the name, the same numbers.

00:28:32.520 trump is getting or trump is getting uh beat quite clearly in pennsylvania though at the moment with

00:28:40.080 23 percent of the polls reporting uh harris is 57.5 trump with only 41.5 oh that is and what

00:28:49.320 percentage of the polls reporting 20 23 percent if trump has got ohio and north carolina that's

00:28:56.940 that's pretty strong carolina was another one that's pretty yeah touch and go i mean pennsylvania

00:29:01.980 is a hard one to read early too, that 23%, because that's a big odd state. Like I said,

00:29:06.280 you get towards Pittsburgh, that way there's a lot of population that's very Republican. You get

00:29:09.880 towards Philly, very Democrat. So it depends on where they're counting those. It could certainly

00:29:14.340 change quite a bit, but it's not a good sign. The result out of North Carolina at the moment,

00:29:19.840 with more than half of the ballots counted, Trump with 51.4%, Harris with 47.5%. So she's about

00:29:29.240 125,000 votes behind at the moment. So I've just got an update from one of our columnists,

00:29:36.240 Josh Andrus. He says inner Pennsylvania has not been counted yet. So we're getting from the big

00:29:41.360 urban centers, which are going to lean more democratic. So there's dozens and dozens of

00:29:46.120 cities in Pennsylvania. They're like 20,000 here, 80,000 there. It's a well-populated state.

00:29:52.100 Yeah. Yeah. It's a fairly big one. It's an upper mid-tier state, 19 electoral college votes.

00:29:58.340 But, I mean, if Trump has won Ohio and North Carolina, that's looking good for him so far.

00:30:07.880 Okay.

00:30:08.660 I'll just give you the latest here, Derek, from Ohio.

00:30:13.360 With 60% of the ballots cast, Trump well in front, 54%.

00:30:19.720 54.6% to 44.5%, uh, you know, almost, uh, 400,000 votes behind.

00:30:31.380 Okay. And you're saying 270 to win has Ohio, uh, called for Trump or just leaning Trump?

00:30:38.200 Nope. Called. Okay. All right. Dave Naylor, uh, news editor for the Western Standard. Uh,

00:30:45.340 thank you uh feel free to butt in next time you got something big i will all right uh well i think

00:30:52.460 it's time we brought in our our next guest uh someone i think uh you know nigel yes ambassador 0.99

00:30:59.260 wilkins good evening are you ambassador can you hear us can you hear us ambassador

00:31:07.820 i think uh ambassador wilkins is having uh might have some audio issues um

00:31:19.420 uh mr wilkins just uh please make sure that your uh your microphone is not on mute

00:31:24.780 oh mic's on he's got no sound can you hear us uh mr wilkins

00:31:31.580 so i have to send him a note okay i've seen about two yeah okay all right uh

00:31:36.300 We'll be back around, Pastor Wilkins, in just a moment.

00:31:40.320 Stay tuned, Mr. Wilkins.

00:31:41.580 Yeah, we'll be to you.

00:31:44.120 Corey, I mean, it's looking Trump earlier than I expected.

00:31:49.780 Yeah, I mean, I still figured we'd be...

00:31:51.540 I'm not calling it for Trump.

00:31:52.080 No, no, I mean, this is a long night ahead of us yet,

00:31:54.240 but it's for an early start in those Eastern votes,

00:31:56.420 and a lot of them coming in, it is looking quite promising.

00:31:59.280 I mean, we're not seeing things flipping back and forth.

00:32:01.880 Where they're going his way, they're going definitively his way.

00:32:04.960 Again, there's some big population centers that could come in late.

00:32:07.300 Like I said, Georgia is an interesting one you watch.

00:32:09.820 You know, it looks great, looks great until Atlanta starts bringing their votes in.

00:32:12.620 And then all of a sudden, the state starts leading pretty strongly blue.

00:32:16.440 So it's hard to read too much in early.

00:32:18.380 But when you look at Ohio being called and, again, some of those areas through there, it's looking promising earlier than, yeah, I would have imagined.

00:32:26.120 Ohio and North Carolina, those are two swing states.

00:32:29.220 and uh ohio called north carolina i think dave said it's that's 270 to win i haven't seen it

00:32:36.560 on a major network yet uh uh but it if he's got those two then yeah there's there's not a lot of

00:32:44.020 big states that my feelings are saying it's going that are in flux to change that you know i mean

00:32:48.980 sure you get some of the nevada and it's arizona and areas that might change out west but there's

00:32:53.720 not a lot of votes within those states so yeah not gonna make much difference nico nico let's

00:32:59.080 pull up the map here. So leaning or called for Trump, 256 electoral college votes. And those

00:33:11.880 ones that, you know, I'm still just not convinced of North Carolina yet. I got to wait for a major

00:33:17.240 network on that one. I'm going to take that one out. But let's take it out. The ones that are

00:33:23.660 leaning Republican.

00:33:25.920 So the ones that are light red there,

00:33:27.880 all of those ones

00:33:30.160 are going Republican.

00:33:31.920 They're definitely going, like Montana

00:33:33.520 is going Republican. Idaho is going Republican.

00:33:39.820 Oh, is Minnesota

00:33:41.820 listed as Republican?

00:33:43.460 No, Minnesota is in the air.

00:33:45.360 Minnesota and Wisconsin are both actually...

00:33:48.100 What am I looking at here?

00:33:49.780 What's this one?

00:33:52.300 That's what you're looking at.

00:33:54.060 Oh, not Minnesota.

00:33:54.940 Sorry, I'm thinking of Michigan.

00:33:55.880 Yeah, Michigan and Wisconsin.

00:33:57.260 Michigan and Wisconsin.

00:33:58.000 But Minnesota is often pretty blue.

00:34:01.340 That's a pretty blue state, isn't it?

00:34:02.900 Yeah, we're still sitting blue.

00:34:04.820 Yeah, okay.

00:34:06.020 All right.

00:34:06.660 So, I mean, it's between leaning and confirmed.

00:34:10.440 It's still a fairly tight race.

00:34:13.460 Confirmed, called.

00:34:14.840 Trump's at 191.

00:34:17.580 Harris is at 87.

00:34:19.640 But the...

00:34:23.640 Hey, David, we can see you, but we can't hear you.

00:34:26.440 The, you know, the West Coast has not come in.

00:34:31.260 You've got California, 54 electoral college votes, Oregon, 8, Washington State, 12.

00:34:38.500 Like, those are 99.99%.

00:34:41.580 They're going Democratic.

00:34:47.140 Yes.

00:34:47.360 We can't do this.

00:34:49.640 there all right uh i think we're going to try and bring in uh former u.s ambassador to canada david

00:34:57.880 uh wilkins again uh let's bring him in now nico

00:35:07.640 we're waiting to bring in the former ambassador here all right uh ambassador uh uh u.s ambassador

00:35:13.800 to Canada David Wilkins can you hear us no we can't ambassador

00:35:22.280 ambassador can you can you not hear us okay it looks like we have continued uh

00:35:27.720 technical difficulties getting uh former ambassador uh Wilkins in uh in the meantime

00:35:32.840 I think uh do we have uh Josh Andrus uh standing by here

00:35:35.640 do we have a okay let's bring in uh western standard uh uh senior

00:35:43.620 Josh Andrus in uh you're uh you're looking not bad well thank you I appreciate that I

00:35:53.360 put a tie on for you so uh you're welcome nice you you you clean up adequately appreciate that

00:36:00.560 thank you I do my best I was hoping I could put a hoodie on shortly after this so we'll see how

00:36:05.080 along this goes. We'll see. Josh, there's some early strong indications for Trump right now.

00:36:12.460 Ohio going his way. Now, Ohio, I think, must win for Trump. That's not the biggest bellwether.

00:36:18.300 It's been kind of trending Republican the last number of cycles. If he didn't, if Trump didn't

00:36:24.760 win Ohio, I'd say he's lost. But he's won Ohio. So he's in the game. And some of the sources

00:36:33.280 saying North Carolina as well.

00:36:36.540 What are the big takeaways for you?

00:36:39.660 I'm watching this Pennsylvania vote.

00:36:42.240 I do, like I messaged in,

00:36:45.320 a lot of the results from the less metropolitan areas

00:36:50.320 in between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are still in play.

00:36:54.820 Minnesota, which is MN, for those of you wondering,

00:36:58.140 is less than 1% returning.

00:37:00.440 so that is uh something i'm watching too uh arizona closes in about 20 minutes here so we'll

00:37:08.020 see how that goes but yeah like early returns it it does feel like uh something similar to what we

00:37:14.820 went through in 2016 where we had uh it was more shocking then but if you look at the polls and in

00:37:22.760 the and the spreads between what the polls were in 2016 and what the election result is you would

00:37:27.840 Almost this this shouldn't surprise anybody.

00:37:30.520 And I think one of your earlier guests was talking about how the polls seem to underestimate the Republicans.

00:37:37.900 And I think that's what we're seeing here. Again, it's early in the night.

00:37:41.560 We're still polls haven't closed even in Arizona yet.

00:37:44.700 But so far, I do. I am feeling pretty good.

00:37:48.360 So a quick update. Our newsrooms informed me that Calgary born Ted Cruz has been reelected to his seat representing Texas in the United States Senate.

00:38:03.800 He was facing a fairly strong challenger in that. One thing a Canadian audience needs to understand is Americans, with the very notable exception of the U.S. Democratic presidential nominee, actually America has a Democratic nomination process, very much unlike Canada.

00:38:23.420 In Canada, it's an extremely party-controlled process with just members voting.

00:38:28.300 The rules can be kind of rigged here and there to favor who the party brass want.

00:38:32.500 Party brass in America have some say over the primaries, but not anything like in Canada.

00:38:37.840 And so you can actually get like a fairly conservative Democrat running in a red state or a fairly liberal Republican running in a blue state.

00:38:46.360 And so I can just, oh, sorry.

00:38:48.180 If I can comment on the implications of that policy-wise when it comes to energy policy.

00:38:52.660 you'll have ted morton on in a couple of minutes and i i encourage you to ask him about this

00:38:57.860 but the way the u.s system is set up where you have an equal number of senators per state gives

00:39:02.900 the red states the ability to influence more policy control so the senate is something 0.73

00:39:08.420 definitely to keep an eye on especially when it comes like a committee appointments and things 0.97

00:39:12.660 like that uh well there's one sure thing i'm calling tonight maybe i'll look like a jackass 0.76

00:39:19.060 But I'm calling 99.9% the Republicans are going to take control of the Senate tonight.

00:39:25.120 I think they were only one seat down from the Democrats before.

00:39:28.240 Well, they flipped one seat so far already.

00:39:30.820 Just looking West Virginia, it looks like they flipped a seat with Jim Justice there.

00:39:34.620 So they're already on the way towards, you know, that tight race. 0.69

00:39:38.320 They were only one, only down one.

00:39:40.940 And the Democrats were defending a ton of seats.

00:39:44.320 The Republicans, I think, were defending 11.

00:39:45.840 uh the democrats had something like almost three times the number of seats they were defending

00:39:50.300 than uh than the republicans so just that alone yeah there's the republicans had 38 seats so just

00:39:56.860 looking at the screen that weren't up for election so they're safe already so yeah and

00:40:00.880 whereas the democrats had 28 seats not up there's way more opportunities to score when you have the

00:40:05.420 ball that's right yeah yeah they've they've flipped one so far too so that's yeah like it's

00:40:12.380 It looks good so far.

00:40:14.100 I mean, it looks like we could be looking at a pretty red map,

00:40:17.580 but I remember the last election going to bed thinking that too.

00:40:21.140 Yeah, I mean, yeah, some states count the mail-in ballots very late.

00:40:25.960 You know, it's hard to say.

00:40:28.100 But, Nigel, do we have any luck with the ambassador?

00:40:30.880 I just got Judy to give him a call, so we'll see.

00:40:35.720 Okay.

00:40:38.560 Ambassador Wilkins, can you hear us?

00:40:40.160 No, he's not even in right now.

00:40:41.800 Oh, he's down below. He's in the lobby. He's in the lobby. He's grayed out. He cannot hear us.

00:40:46.080 Oh, okay.

00:40:46.760 Yeah, he's not even, he's on standby.

00:40:50.220 So does he have to press a button to get in?

00:40:52.580 He should hear us in the lobby.

00:40:55.020 He can hear us, but we cannot hear him. Our producer has to let him in, but we'll have to try that.

00:41:00.660 All right.

00:41:11.800 .

00:41:41.800 he is someone we're very much going to want to hear from someone i'm looking forward to hearing

00:41:50.780 from we just have to sort out some of the technical difficulties there well i wanted to talk about i

00:41:54.300 mean as a conservative leaning person one thing i i still have uh concerns with conservative

00:41:59.640 leaning well i am conservative but uh yeah just a little lean i mean both candidates are

00:42:04.480 protectionist but trump is a hell of a lot more protectionist i mean i'm just talking from the

00:42:08.220 sake of Canada for immediate trade, I mean, looking from our perspective, we can't vote in this

00:42:13.420 election, but whereas the Canadian broadcast, this is some of our concerns as well. I mean,

00:42:17.620 Trump's relationship in the past with Justin Trudeau, well, I think a lot of people's

00:42:20.960 relationships with Justin Trudeau, but it just hasn't been good to say the least. So

00:42:25.120 if we're looking at impacts that, you know, a Trump win may have as far as Canada goes,

00:42:31.120 again, I'm, you know, hoping we can talk to Mr. Wilcox about it, but I'd like to see how that

00:42:35.600 might temper some of that language once getting in. Trump can be a bit more protectionist on

00:42:40.980 manufacturing issues, much less on raw goods. So from the perspective of Alberta and Saskatchewan,

00:42:46.460 he's pro-TMX. The Democrats have been obviously against it. So at least from our perspective.

00:42:54.140 From a central Canadian perspective, it could be problematic. Yeah, I mean,

00:42:58.520 they'll have to do something besides subsidize EV batteries to the end of time.

00:43:03.420 that would be a nice change that would be especially if we don't have to pay for it anymore

00:43:07.660 um have we uh still got josh with us

00:43:12.140 seems to be on a breather uh you you'll have to text the producer yeah i'm here okay uh

00:43:20.940 actually uh actually uh we're gonna come back to you josh actually i want to check in with her

00:43:25.020 Nice try. I just don't like you enough, Josh. Okay. Let's check in with Dave Naylor in the

00:43:35.300 newsroom. If people would stop crowding around Dave's desk, I can see you in the newsroom over

00:43:40.520 there. Let's bring in Dave Naylor from the newsroom, just checking in on where we stand

00:43:45.120 with the Electoral College.

00:43:46.340 hey guys sorry i was just on the phone with ambassador wilkins

00:43:54.800 he would like you to try again okay uh is he uh let's uh see is he in the way room now

00:44:01.260 okay okay we'll come back to david yeah oh it works yeah ambassador wilkins uh thank you very

00:44:09.020 much for uh no no sound he's not hearing us he can't hear us now

00:44:14.140 ambassador can you not hear us

00:44:18.060 uh that's not my that's not ambassador wilkins that's mike kinkins who is that

00:44:23.980 oh that's our next guest oh okay either way he can't hear us either so uh i see okay uh it looks

00:44:32.280 okay all right let's go back to our newsroom now with uh with dave nailer does not look like

00:44:36.540 the ambassador's camera is uh quite settled yet uh let's let's go to dave nailer in the newsroom

00:44:41.820 uh dave we're uh we're still waiting on the ambassadors oh yeah he's i think he's getting

00:44:49.820 pretty frustrated well i just wish i knew how to talk to you can you hear us ambassador

00:44:58.940 can you hear us that's not him is that not no hard to tell with that picture

00:45:04.540 or maybe i don't know i think it is him okay yes he can't hear us he cannot hear us uh i'm not

00:45:11.260 sure how many times we're able to go yeah we're just going to frustrate the viewers yeah uh okay

00:45:15.100 dave uh let's uh let's hear from the newsroom not a lot changed since the last update uh trump has

00:45:22.220 won iowa uh still waiting for official result results uh in ohio oh so do you know what the

00:45:29.340 margin is in Iowa yet? Because the polls were showing Kamala Harris winning Iowa. Fun fact,

00:45:37.340 we used to live in Iowa. They are not voting for Kamala Harris.

00:45:40.700 Well, right now it's 55.4 to 43.7. So Trump is expanding his lead with 65% of the polls reporting.

00:45:49.820 All right. So Iowa.

00:45:53.260 Iowa has gone to Trump.

00:45:57.080 That's under the eyes, isn't it?

00:45:58.980 Iowa.

00:45:59.700 There it is.

00:46:01.620 Iowa is a bit close to call.

00:46:06.360 They've only got 13% reporting, 54 to...

00:46:10.540 Are we talking Iowa still?

00:46:12.640 No, we're talking, yeah, Iowa.

00:46:14.540 Okay, so Iowa's not called for.

00:46:16.380 Iowa is not called for, even though it's very close to call.

00:46:21.420 Ohio seems to be going Trump's way.

00:46:25.240 Okay.

00:46:29.220 We'll call it when the networks call it, but Iowa is going to go Trump.

00:46:34.100 I'm looking at one Iowa map that says 20% reporting, and it says Harris is leading by seven points.

00:46:41.480 I mean, I would imagine, but it depends what parts of the state it's coming from.

00:46:45.300 Iowa is a, it's not the deepest of red states, but it's a fairly red state.

00:46:51.040 We do have some results coming in from Georgia with 77% votes cast, Trump at 52.3%, Harris 47%. So he's got the lead in Georgia.

00:47:05.300 Okay. That is a huge one. Georgia is a fairly big state, just 16 electoral college votes. That's kind of an upper mid-level size state for electoral colleges.

00:47:19.020 uh i think biden won that vote i think it was something like 11 000 votes it was something

00:47:25.580 extraordinarily close for a for a fairly big state um but again we're gonna have to watch

00:47:30.640 what part of the state are those votes coming from are we gonna have to watch if if trump

00:47:36.420 takes georgia and ohio and north carolina i mean it's it's a very clear path from there pretty

00:47:43.000 much on his way at that point yeah yeah and those are the ones that a lot of people were saying were

00:47:47.280 must, you know, those were the bellwether ones

00:47:49.440 or the turning point. Georgia's not

00:47:51.280 a must win for Trump.

00:47:53.180 Ohio definitely is. Georgia

00:47:55.160 is probably

00:47:56.820 should win. Yeah. Well, Atlanta, again,

00:47:59.480 differs quite strongly, so.

00:48:01.740 Yeah.

00:48:04.120 Nico, do we have

00:48:05.020 any word on the

00:48:07.180 ambassador right now? No.

00:48:09.340 No. Okay.

00:48:11.000 I don't think that's going to work out, but

00:48:12.980 at 8 o'clock, we're going to have Mr. Simon

00:48:15.080 hankinson uh coming to us from new hampshire and the heritage foundation okay uh so uh dave

00:48:22.840 where i'm sitting right now i've got uh uh 87 confirmed called for kamala harris 191 confirmed

00:48:33.000 called for uh for donald trump uh is that what you've got probably not the uh the live map on

00:48:41.340 12702win.com has Trump at 210, Harris at 105, Fox has Trump 195, Harris 117.

00:48:51.720 So they're all in and around the same area.

00:48:55.340 Okay.

00:48:56.600 Colorado has gone Democrat.

00:49:00.960 That was expected.

00:49:01.620 Colorado, yeah.

00:49:02.380 That's become a fairly blue state now.

00:49:07.460 Now, one of the fun things tonight, I don't think you've talked about, Derek, is Florida voting down the de-legalization of marijuana.

00:49:16.480 Yeah, you know, I'm a bit surprised.

00:49:19.540 Florida's become a red state, but, you know, even Republicans smoke weed in Florida.

00:49:26.280 I mean, have you met Florida man?

00:49:28.260 Have you met Florida man?

00:49:29.780 He smokes weed.

00:49:31.180 I'm pretty surprised.

00:49:32.520 Maybe the weed's cutting into their coke business down there.

00:49:35.240 Yeah.

00:49:35.900 Yeah.

00:49:36.620 Yeah, they like to keep it diverse.

00:49:40.180 Yeah, so yeah, on the ballot, they had, I guess, an initiative to,

00:49:45.900 I'm not sure if it was to decriminalize or to legalize,

00:49:48.140 but yeah, cannabis in Florida.

00:49:50.860 I mean, that's a surprising one to me.

00:49:53.200 Yeah, I mean, the trends in general, I mean, it's just been kind of coming down.

00:49:56.300 People have come off of going after the pot.

00:49:58.300 I mean, I think most people are just kind of realizing as far as areas

00:50:01.840 that you need interjection with, yeah, you know,

00:50:05.540 we've got a fentanyl crisis going on.

00:50:07.040 Who really worries about the pothead, you know,

00:50:08.740 having to wait somewhere.

00:50:10.160 Yeah.

00:50:10.680 And the New York Post has called Trump for Ohio.

00:50:15.740 Okay.

00:50:17.260 Well, I mean, there's a pretty clear path to a win form,

00:50:20.200 but it's still not done yet.

00:50:23.900 So with Ohio, where are we?

00:50:26.500 210?

00:50:28.940 191 right now.

00:50:30.220 With Ohio?

00:50:31.380 With Ohio. 0.53

00:50:32.380 Okay.

00:50:32.600 uh we got here i mean harris is going to pick up california there's 55 right there

00:50:40.500 yeah the whole west coast is gonna yeah it's usual uh dave uh where are you getting the uh the live

00:50:48.160 uh map for uh on 270 that's where click on presidents or click on the president race

00:50:55.660 live election results. Okay. I'm seeing it there. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So there are 210 electoral

00:51:04.020 votes for, for, for Trump, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. They've

00:51:11.980 got North Carolina called. Now they also do an interesting forecast, Derek, where they fill in

00:51:19.280 where they're leaning and all that sort of stuff and where they're expected to go like California.

00:51:23.560 and they've got 246 for Trump, 226 for Harris

00:51:30.100 with five states in the battleground field

00:51:34.020 that will decide them.

00:51:36.020 Yeah, yeah, I'm seeing that here.

00:51:39.340 Jeez, I'm thinking that map is better than mine now

00:51:41.820 now that I'm looking at it.

00:51:44.660 Yeah, you know what?

00:51:46.400 To hell with my map.

00:51:48.060 Their map is better.

00:51:50.220 At least now we're finally on the same page, Derek.

00:51:52.800 Now we're there.

00:51:53.560 nico let's pull up the map we are now using the same map here we go

00:51:57.480 so there we go uh a few but there's another shade of red and another shade of blue

00:52:04.840 like you'll see california oregon washington they're not the dark dark blue but they're

00:52:09.960 going to be blue you can very very reliably bet that they're going to be called for kamala harris

00:52:15.960 um but you know called for trump we're at 210 called for harris 105 leaning trump right now

00:52:25.620 we're at 246 leaning harris 226 uh so that'd be lovely 66 electoral college votes in the ballots

00:52:36.220 it's a it's at 66 that now trump is closer to that right now than uh than harris but it's it's

00:52:44.780 still very much a race but i mean uh nigel if we got ohio north carolina south carolina 0.84

00:52:51.500 uh i'd say at this point if trump wins either pennsylvania or georgia i think it it gets really

00:53:00.860 easy for him to win it is and that's what the campaigns have both been saying all through the

00:53:06.020 all through the last week you could if you went looking for it you'd find footage of uh mr trump

00:53:12.360 telling the people where he nearly got shot

00:53:15.060 that this is Pennsylvania, their state is the key.

00:53:19.600 Kamala Harris said the same thing to a large crowd herself.

00:53:23.480 So that's kind of the consensus.

00:53:25.600 I mean, it really does come down to those seven swing states.

00:53:31.020 So Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania.

00:53:36.540 Michigan, Wisconsin.

00:53:37.560 Michigan, Wisconsin.

00:53:38.420 And so we now know, I think, who do we know for sure?

00:53:43.140 We know we don't have Pennsylvania yet.

00:53:46.140 We don't have Pennsylvania.

00:53:47.100 We don't have Ohio.

00:53:48.600 We don't have Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

00:53:51.840 Those are the swing states that are still up.

00:53:54.560 North Carolina is the first swing state to get, like, the big swings.

00:53:59.280 Yes.

00:54:00.020 So the swing states were Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia,

00:54:05.820 and North Carolina.

00:54:06.420 Now, North Carolina has been called for Trump.

00:54:08.860 That's the first of any swing states called, and it's gone him fairly strong.

00:54:13.600 So for the benefit of people who may not be following American politics very closely,

00:54:17.460 a swing state is one where the plurality was 3% or less.

00:54:22.060 And that's not going to be the same states at every election.

00:54:28.440 But in 2020, it was those seven states, and five of them have actually been very consistently in whatever they were, they still are.

00:54:38.740 But they hold it by a very narrow margin.

00:54:42.680 Let's bring in Josh Andrus.

00:54:44.280 Josh, oh, okay, actually, before we bring in Josh, we're going to bring Dave back in.

00:54:50.760 He's got some Georgia and Pennsylvania numbers.

00:54:55.200 Yeah, and it's getting down to the nitty-gritty, Derek.

00:54:57.220 80 percent of votes cast in georgia 52 for donald j trump 46 uh 47 for uh kamala harris

00:55:08.180 a difference of about 250 000 votes with 20 of the polls uh still to come uh pennsylvania

00:55:17.460 under the peas, we've got 40% of the polls in, Harris at 50.2, Donald Trump 48.9, so

00:55:30.720 extremely close, only about a 40,000 vote difference there.

00:55:37.300 So one thing we don't know, Dave, is whether there are boxes of votes that have to be counted

00:55:43.660 tomorrow i'm thinking of the pre-votes the uh the mail-ins those kinds of things is this just the

00:55:52.780 stuff is this everything that's a good question because uh derek doesn't give me a magic wall

00:55:58.700 like they've got a cnn and fox and stuff like that so uh i i honestly don't know the answer to that

00:56:05.820 question okay i do know pennsylvania is one of the ones they will not rip open a single envelope

00:56:10.540 until the polls close with all the mail-in ballots yeah some of the other ones did i mean the moment

00:56:15.500 uh the the polling started they were allowed to sequester counters and and start opening those

00:56:20.780 so the pennsylvania results are going to be some of the latest when it comes to the mail-ins

00:56:25.260 many many thousands to go there yeah uh pennsylvania's gonna be a long time i've seen yeah

00:56:32.140 uh but if he takes georgia you're getting really and that's where you're talking about those those

00:56:39.340 windows, those opportunities. And it's already starting to, you know, the windows, the doors

00:56:43.500 are starting to close for the Harris campaign as to where they're going to have to pick up some

00:56:46.820 ground as things start to change colors right now. It appears. Yeah. Um, let's, uh, let's see here.

00:56:57.600 I want to, um, okay. Uh, yeah. So if Trump, let's see where he's got, he's got,

00:57:04.920 wait dave you'd have to turn off that dinger for god's sakes mom stop texting why don't you just

00:57:13.340 mute the dinger turn it off well if i mute the dinger i turn you off wow we can't have that no

00:57:19.720 okay uh well thank you very much dave uh let's bring uh what time are we here uh oh we're uh

00:57:27.040 we're time uh do we have uh mr uh hankinson uh in the feed oh yeah we do no no no i don't think

00:57:33.420 we do uh maybe you should maybe give up okay in the meantime we're just gonna have to settle for

00:57:39.160 our uh international food critic uh mr josh andrus uh not bad not bad results tonight not bad i'll

00:57:49.040 take international food critic that works i mean i mean if you're funding my next vacation that

00:57:54.920 would work for me oh okay we're gonna call you stampede food critic all right that works 0.99

00:58:00.340 Just so everyone knows, we made him eat testicles 0.99

00:58:03.960 That wasn't me, that was Jonathan 0.99

00:58:06.620 No, but you did eat them

00:58:07.720 No, I never did

00:58:09.520 You've never eaten the prairie oysters

00:58:11.840 Not in front of you, no

00:58:13.660 Oh, but you have eaten prairie oysters

00:58:16.420 I'm not going to comment on

00:58:19.580 That's an insensitive topic

00:58:22.100 Look at our viewers right in the eye 1.00

00:58:23.580 And tell them that you eat balls 0.99

00:58:25.500 I do not 0.95

00:58:28.260 all right well i will not admit that not a true alberta if you haven't had your prairie oysters

00:58:34.300 yet um i did not uh i just i'm just refusing to answer all right uh josh uh you've been watching

00:58:41.720 uh pennsylvania closely uh what's standing out there yeah it's uh tightening uh i'm i'm on the

00:58:47.840 wall street journal page uh i've been flipping back and forth between fox news but uh pennsylvania

00:58:53.940 appears to be tightening. Harris has about a 5,000 vote lead with 41% total vote reporting.

00:59:01.720 According to Wall Street Journal Georgia here too, is that 52% to 47.2% for Trump. So those

00:59:11.720 are two states that, but Pennsylvania, the tightening window is something definitely

00:59:17.680 to watch as we head in minnesota slowly the votes taking in uh but this there's not a lot coming in

00:59:24.920 from the minneapolis st paul area wisconsin um same thing we're at 35 with trump carrying a small

00:59:33.080 lead we'll see how that goes but it is now eight o'clock so i'm assuming that we will have a bunch

00:59:39.500 of polls close right now arizona nevada um is that it arizona nevada uh arizona nevada uh possibly

00:59:52.540 utah idaho montana oh yeah yeah well utah well the wall street journal's got utah as trump already

01:00:00.700 so they must have declared that before any votes come in i'm not saying it declared on 270 but i

01:00:05.840 I mean, yeah, Utah is going red.

01:00:08.880 Really, in that near west, I don't know, to coin a new term, the near west states, Nevada is really the only one in play, I think.

01:00:20.600 Arizona, Utah, those are going highly likely to go red.

01:00:24.740 New Mexico, likely to go blue.

01:00:27.380 Colorado is blue.

01:00:30.880 Nevada is really the only one that's up.

01:00:32.260 New Mexico is really starting to turn hit and miss here, actually.

01:00:35.020 They're just looking at some of it's only 20% in, but Trump's got a narrow lead in there right now.

01:00:38.800 And that was earlier expected to be leading to Harris.

01:00:41.500 So this is coming in from our newsroom.

01:00:45.540 CNN says that Nevada is experiencing issues counting mail-in ballots because, quote, young people don't know how to sign their name.

01:00:55.980 I shouldn't have burst out laughing on that.

01:00:58.560 That's an education system problem.

01:01:00.920 I think it did not.

01:01:01.860 So Acosta at CNN says they have several days to work that out. So yeah, Nevada. Now, maybe Nevada isn't going to be material. It's only six electoral college votes. It could be material. But if it comes down to Nevada, I mean, holy hell, it really hopefully does.

01:01:20.400 Yeah, that's it. So it's unlikely it comes down to Nevada. But yeah, I, I suppose, you know, like my handwriting is a lot messier than my parents. Handwriting gets messier with generations as we stop writing entirely. But yeah, I guess maybe, you know, newer voters today just don't even know how to do a signature.

01:01:39.920 I guess they never have to sign a check. So that's probably what that's about. I see we've got Mr. Hankinson.

01:01:44.640 Yes, we have a guest in the lobby.

01:01:45.780 All right, Josh, you can go away now.

01:01:50.400 All right. We'll let Josh come back at some point.

01:01:56.240 All right. Our next guest is Simon Hankinson.

01:01:59.640 He's coming to us from New Hampshire.

01:02:01.240 He is with the Heritage Foundation for Canucks who do not know.

01:02:07.060 The Heritage Foundation is a big deal.

01:02:09.120 It is a very major conservative think tank with a lot of poll in the United States.

01:02:14.840 um uh mr hankinson uh thank you for joining us from um i don't know what he called it is that

01:02:22.760 the granite state it is indeed the granite state called it okay but your license plate's way cooler

01:02:28.700 live for your die right it's an easy slogan to remember yeah that's that's a pretty good one

01:02:34.420 uh thank you for joining us great to be with you so mr hankinson yes great to meet you online so

01:02:41.540 to speak look um i've got a couple of things here the first one we were talking earlier about

01:02:48.980 the possibly you write the immigration file for the heritage foundation i've seen your articles

01:02:55.460 online and on their website can you talk about what the implications of having so many illegal

01:03:03.460 aliens in the United States now compared to 2020, fanned out all over the country,

01:03:12.260 are they going to make a difference in some of these very small margin elections?

01:03:19.380 You know, it's possible they will. I think the issue is one of just an inexorable tide

01:03:26.580 of population, largely going to states that elect Democrats. It's not necessarily that they all vote

01:03:35.420 for Democrats, but if they're all going to California, New York, Illinois, some do go to

01:03:42.020 Florida and Texas, but overall, they tend to boost seats because, you know, we have a limited number

01:03:48.140 of seats in Congress and they get apportioned depending on the census about every, exactly

01:03:53.000 over 10 years. So what we find, there was a recent report by the Center for Immigration Studies that

01:03:59.040 broke it down in, in, in, somewhere around, you know, that differed from states that typically

01:04:09.960 vote Republican to states that typically vote Democrat as of the 2020 census. So I think we're

01:04:16.200 going to see that, especially given the huge number of people that have come in in the last

01:04:21.060 four years who will be claiming asylum, will many of them be getting it, and will be poured

01:04:27.480 into the pipeline for eventual citizenship and voting.

01:04:31.760 But strictly speaking, they shouldn't be voting now, and yet you hear reports that some are.

01:04:37.980 I mean, can we take those reports seriously?

01:04:41.100 Well, I think you can.

01:04:42.520 The question is how many are voting illegally.

01:04:45.080 What the left tends to say, and this really should be bipartisan, it shouldn't be a Republican

01:04:50.400 versus Democrat issue. But what you find is that Republicans are very concerned about voter

01:04:56.720 integrity, election integrity, and they want to make sure that, as the law says, only U.S. citizens 0.80

01:05:02.080 can vote in federal elections. But you tend to have the left-leaning states saying, it's not a

01:05:09.440 problem, they don't do it, and it's a crime even if they do. So if one state has strict requirements

01:05:15.440 about showing ID. I just voted today in New Hampshire. It's a small town of under a thousand

01:05:20.720 people. I had to show my ID three times to be able to cast my ballot. And I knew a couple of people

01:05:26.040 in the room. And there have been reports out of California, out of Glendale, saw one yesterday

01:05:30.600 where people were able to vote without showing any ID whatsoever. Now, it is a felony, but we

01:05:36.740 know that there have been, there was a Chinese non-citizen who voted a couple of days ago in

01:05:42.400 early voting. And I would doubt very much whether that was the only example of a non-citizen 1.00

01:05:47.640 voting. So it doesn't necessarily mean they're illegal immigrants, but they are non-citizens 1.00

01:05:51.720 and either way they shouldn't be allowed to vote.

01:05:54.780 Okay. It surprises us in Canada that there's not much more rigor in some of the locations

01:06:03.960 to control this.

01:06:04.960 I don't know. We've got Chinese communist agents in parliament.

01:06:07.960 Well, that's a good issue.

01:06:09.960 But I mean, I'm looking at results in border states like I'm looking at Arizona right now.

01:06:17.040 And with 34 percent reporting, Harris and Trump are 50 votes apart.

01:06:24.720 So with how much reporting in Arizona?

01:06:27.500 That's with 34 percent. Now, that might spread and everything.

01:06:30.820 But I mean, it's just the craziness of elections.

01:06:32.800 I mean, we can count on sometimes being a couple of states being decided by such a small number when anything's questionable.

01:06:38.740 Even a few IDs, even if it didn't have an impact, it throws the mistrust into the system.

01:06:43.320 And that's where you start getting a lot of the problems, too, I imagine.

01:06:47.080 Mr. Hankinson, you know, for the benefit of people who have not met you, you are actually a former U.S. Foreign Service officer.

01:06:53.320 You've had a very extensive career and you've seen elections in, I would think, a lot of places.

01:06:58.940 You mentioned in your resume, India, Fiji, Ghana, Slovakia, Togo, Washington, Marseille, and Nairobi.

01:07:04.300 In all your travels, who really knows how to run an election?

01:07:11.300 You know, I actually was an observer at the elections in Togo some years ago where

01:07:22.300 the president, who is the son of the man who committed the first coup in Africa in 1967,

01:07:29.300 67. It's still the president now. They've only had two presidents from the same family since

01:07:34.460 independence. But the people took that election incredibly seriously. I think it was the

01:07:40.340 parliamentary elections, so not the presidential. And there were representatives from all the major

01:07:45.680 parties in this little school room that I was in. They were doing it all on a blackboard,

01:07:50.300 but they had some computerized databases. And everybody was making sure that everyone was

01:07:57.060 identified before they could vote and that they voted in accordance with the law. So I think

01:08:03.460 countries take it extremely seriously, not necessarily wealthy countries, but all over

01:08:08.480 the world. And I do think the system we have in the U.S. does have some vulnerabilities because

01:08:14.280 it leaves it up to the states and localities to be in charge of the process. And there have been

01:08:21.840 instances in our history of malfeasance, sometimes corruption or just sheer

01:08:26.560 incompetence on a local level that just doesn't add to the confidence that we

01:08:31.440 really desperately need because the margins are so tight. You're talking

01:08:35.220 about a 50-vote split. Biden won by, it was like 50,000 votes in a few states in

01:08:41.220 2020, and people really need to have the confidence that their votes are being

01:08:46.100 counted and that if their side loses, it was a fair fight.

01:08:50.420 Sorry, Mr. Hankinson, I want you to stay in the stream here, but we're just going to do a quick

01:08:55.180 update we've got from the newsroom here. Several more states have just been called. Let's bring

01:09:01.180 in Dave Naylor from the newsroom. Dave, you tell me there are some new calls to make.

01:09:08.600 New calls. Utah and Montana have both gone to Trump. I don't think there's a surprise there.

01:09:18.240 And we're now looking at a total of 226 for Trump, 108 for Harris. And while you've got me,

01:09:26.820 I'll just do a quick Georgia update because Georgia's on my mind. See what I did there?

01:09:34.040 I did. Miko, in place of me, let's get the map up on the side, beside Dave, so people can see the way this is coming up.

01:09:42.360 Yeah, it's in Georgia. It's just about the same as what we said last time.

01:09:48.080 And Pennsylvania is 46 cents reported, and Donald Trump now in the lead.

01:10:04.040 First time he's been in the lead tonight, 50.4% of the vote to Kamala Harris's 48.8%.

01:10:12.180 In Pennsylvania?

01:10:13.660 Yes.

01:10:15.080 Watch someone, boys.

01:10:17.500 There's 52,000 votes ahead right now in Pennsylvania.

01:10:22.180 And he's still ahead in Georgia?

01:10:24.300 Still ahead in Georgia.

01:10:26.600 Okay.

01:10:27.080 20% of the ballots left to be called in Georgia.

01:10:31.480 I imagine there's not going to be a 20% margin.

01:10:34.840 Okay, thank you, Dave.

01:10:36.220 More importantly, Derek, the Flames have beat Montreal 3-2.

01:10:41.840 Well, I don't follow hockey, but I do follow Alberta beating Quebec,

01:10:45.340 so that works for me.

01:10:46.520 Thank you very much.

01:10:47.020 There you go.

01:10:48.220 Okay, let's bring Simon back in.

01:10:51.120 Simon, I think you can probably hear those results coming in.

01:10:55.760 very far, nowhere close to be able to call Pennsylvania and Georgia yet, but Trump with

01:11:03.500 leads there. My thesis for the evening is that whoever wins Pennsylvania is going to be president.

01:11:14.740 Is there a path for either forward that's realistic if either does not win Pennsylvania?

01:11:19.140 I've been hearing that for a good month or so now, that Pennsylvania is the key state.

01:11:26.800 It's got the right number of electoral votes.

01:11:28.520 It's one of the three blue wall states that Trump took in 2016 and Biden took back in

01:11:34.080 2020 that have traditionally, at least since 1992, gone Democrat.

01:11:40.000 But there are various pathways.

01:11:42.260 There are wonks who are much better at this than me.

01:11:44.220 There's Nate Silver and Henry Olson and people who do this for a while who figured out all

01:11:48.820 these different pathways, some of which come up to a tie even in the Electoral College.

01:11:54.740 So I wouldn't say it's an absolute showstopper, but it does seem to be the grand prize in this

01:12:00.020 election and why they've both been campaigning so hard in that state.

01:12:05.140 Now, Mr. Hankinson, one of the puzzles is that after Mr. Trump was shot at in Pennsylvania,

01:12:18.000 I must confess, we came into the office the next day and said, well, that's it.

01:12:21.620 I mean, just the simple sympathy factor would be enough to push him over the line.

01:12:28.300 But, of course, that's not actually turned out to be the case.

01:12:32.160 He may win, he may not, but he's looking good right now.

01:12:36.060 But as you look back over the campaign, two questions.

01:12:42.220 What were the major turning points as you see them?

01:12:45.100 And secondly, why would an assassination attempt on a candidate not push the polls in that candidate's favor?

01:13:01.840 Sure. I mean, the number one event that really changed the game was the debate, the Trump-Biden debate,

01:13:12.740 where we just watched in real time the crumbling of this myth that the media had built up and the

01:13:20.020 White House had built up successfully of President Biden being compass mentis and functional.

01:13:25.160 And everyone realized that was not the case. And this man, unfortunately, was experiencing some

01:13:31.740 pretty serious cognitive decline, maybe not every day, but that day in particular. And then, of

01:13:38.020 course, we had the shooting in Butler, which, like you, I thought was going to increase support for

01:13:45.580 the president. But, you know, this is such this is a man who really attracts love or hate. And it

01:13:52.720 seems for some people that there's really nothing that he could do or say that could make him more

01:13:58.220 palatable to them and likewise that would cause them to reject him. And then we had Biden dropping

01:14:05.160 out of the race and then almost immediately Kamala Harris went from being an unelectable 1.00

01:14:11.800 second-rate politician that even the Democrats really were not impressed with to Barack Obama

01:14:18.280 with longer hair. It was just extraordinary to see them fall into line behind her and to

01:14:25.240 cover up every mistake that she made. She still hasn't done a press conference to my knowledge 1.00

01:14:31.080 at all in 100 and something days since she was nominated. And then later on, we saw some kind

01:14:37.000 of funny moments like President Trump going to a McDonald's and serving some food. And then after

01:14:45.560 there was the silly joke made at his rally about Puerto Rico, and then President Biden made that 1.00

01:14:51.000 comment about his supporters being garbage, then he drove the garbage truck. I'm not sure that those 0.99

01:14:57.160 moved the needle a whole lot. In many ways, this race has been kind of locked in. I'm always 0.55

01:15:03.360 suspicious of people being described as swing voters and seeing polls go up and down 5%, you

01:15:09.420 know, a month out before the election, when I'm pretty sure people have made up their minds on,

01:15:14.500 you know, the big issues for Harris. It's abortion and it's attacking Trump, essentially,

01:15:21.660 rather than any particular policies of her own, because a lot of her policies from before 2019

01:15:26.920 she really doesn't want to bring back because they're pretty far to the left, even her party.

01:15:33.260 Mr. Hankinson, speaking of polls, I want to talk, ask you about, I mean, if it made enough news,

01:15:41.020 if it caught my attention up here, I'm guessing it caught your attention, was the poll published by

01:15:46.040 the Des Moines Register that showed Harris up over Trump by three points in Iowa. Now, before you

01:15:53.560 came on the show, I mentioned a small bit of trivia

01:15:55.660 about myself. I lived in Iowa, actually, in the Quad Cities

01:15:57.800 right on the border with Illinois as

01:15:59.640 a kid for roughly a year.

01:16:03.940 Iowa's become a fairly

01:16:05.760 reliable red state. It's not a deep red state,

01:16:08.140 but, I mean,

01:16:08.560 all things being equal, it's not really in the

01:16:11.760 toss-up column, but the Des Moines

01:16:13.560 Register putting out a poll saying that Harris

01:16:15.680 was up three points in that

01:16:17.600 state. That'd be published by the

01:16:19.680 Des Moines Register. I'm looking

01:16:21.620 at the map right now, only two counties in Iowa are blue. One of them is Des Moines.

01:16:30.060 Was this... Now, pollsters are fallible. They can get it wrong. But was this... Do you think

01:16:37.020 this was a push poll just to try and juice a pair of supporters? Or do you think it was just bad

01:16:42.660 polling? This got fairly national news in the United States. It even made it across the border

01:16:48.720 uh northwards here uh what are your thoughts yeah i remember that and i i seem to remember that the

01:16:56.160 pollster was pretty well regarded i guess there are you know some pollsters who have great

01:17:01.200 reputations and others who kind of put out junky product according to the experts but here's my

01:17:06.640 thing with polls in general you've got so many different places where they can fall apart first

01:17:12.960 of all who do they choose to pull um who answers the phone or the email these days we've got people

01:17:19.200 who don't have landlines anymore or people who don't answer their cell phone i know my kids if

01:17:25.280 you try to phone them they freak out you know they're used to text and other kind of messages

01:17:29.680 second are they going to answer at all or give you the answer that that is truthful or are they

01:17:36.560 going to tell you what what you want to hear um so there are so many different uh ways in which

01:17:41.920 polls can fall apart from the sample right down to the answers that I tend to find any outlier

01:17:52.240 just that to be considered but maybe put into the mix in the kind of meta polls of polls

01:18:01.120 and averaged out. So that one was one of a few polls that we saw that were way out of whack,

01:18:08.160 up or down five points um and uh just part of the i guess the game of polling

01:18:17.120 all right that's it yeah the other question that sorry cory did you want no no okay the other

01:18:23.760 question is how has kamala harris got a pass on the fact that she knew for a long period of time 0.96

01:18:31.520 that the president was not functioning at the 100 percent level.

01:18:37.520 Actually, let's come back to this for a moment. We're going to bring Dave in from the newsroom

01:18:42.560 actually. We're going to come back to Mr. Hankinson in just a moment. But Dave,

01:18:50.080 New York Times election forecast, the scales are tilting.

01:18:55.940 Scales are tilting for a traditionally anti-Trump newspaper.

01:18:59.900 Their election forecasts now say that Trump has a 78% chance of becoming president again.

01:19:07.820 And yes, it's looking very good for him.

01:19:11.840 I'm wondering what Joe Biden is thinking tonight.

01:19:15.040 I mean, he's not even going to the Kamala Harris watch party.

01:19:19.040 I know exactly what Joe Biden's thinking.

01:19:22.800 Is it my bedtime?

01:19:25.200 Or who's the president?

01:19:28.960 Well, I bet you he's thinking he could have done better than Kamala.

01:19:32.460 If he is putting together a cogent thought, he probably is thinking that.

01:19:38.120 And the current, I'll give you the current stats as I have them.

01:19:42.260 Electoral votes, 226 for Trump.

01:19:45.420 Let's get the map.

01:19:46.040 Here you go.

01:19:48.100 226 for Trump, 108 for Harris.

01:19:52.160 uh i got some new figures out of pennsylvania i think

01:19:56.680 yeah pennsylvania's looking very interesting i'm seeing um which is uh 51 percent and it's uh

01:20:06.160 hasn't moved much since last time trump at 50.7 and uh harris at uh 48.4 and let's check in with

01:20:14.360 those georgia guys they must be just about done right now georgia has 82 percent reporting uh

01:20:21.960 Trump up by 200,000, 190,000 votes, 51.8% to 47.7%.

01:20:30.480 Yeah, I'm looking at Georgia.

01:20:34.720 I can actually, you guys can't see, but I can see the county breakdowns here.

01:20:39.460 Again, I'm not the wizard.

01:20:41.820 I'm not Wolf Blitzer and know every bloody county here.

01:20:45.800 But most of the outstanding counties I'm seeing on the map here,

01:20:50.320 Most of them are in fairly rural areas.

01:20:53.300 So that bodes well for Trump.

01:20:55.380 They're not in the major centers.

01:20:56.940 Atlanta is reporting.

01:20:58.360 Savannah is reporting.

01:21:00.080 Augusta is reporting.

01:21:01.760 Most of Columbus, only one, maybe two,

01:21:05.980 depending on how you're considering

01:21:07.140 metropolitan Columbus, is reported.

01:21:08.920 But one, two, three, four, five, six, seven

01:21:12.760 of nine outstanding counties in Georgia

01:21:18.460 uh that have not yet been counted are rural and those are likely to go for trump so eric we've

01:21:25.200 we've now got more than half the votes counted in arizona 52 percent of the votes uh now counted

01:21:32.200 harris out into the lead 50.2 percent sorry 50.2 percent to trump's 49 percent sorry in arizona

01:21:41.620 Arizona. So it seems about 15,000 votes ahead in Arizona.

01:21:46.400 Okay, so Arizona, what have we got for reporting so far? 52%. Okay. I mean, based on tonight's trends, I would find it extremely difficult to believe Arizona is going to go blue. That would be massively bucking a national trend. It's a light red state, and the toss-ups tend to be leaning red.

01:22:09.620 Let's ask Mr. Hankinson.

01:22:11.420 That's a good idea.

01:22:13.660 Okay, thank you, Dave.

01:22:16.060 All right.

01:22:17.500 So, Mr. Hankinson, we've just been advised, you may have heard it, that Arizona, with

01:22:22.820 half, 52% of polls reporting, is now very slightly ahead for Harris, 50.2 to 49.8.

01:22:32.100 Does that surprise you?

01:22:35.580 Well, with 52% counted, no.

01:22:40.420 there's a lot of votes left to come in. I think Arizona, along with a bunch of other states,

01:22:46.340 was just such a razor-thin margin that it was a coin flip, even for the experts on this one.

01:22:52.500 And I don't count myself among those who know every county of Arizona backwards.

01:22:59.460 In 2020, Trump enjoyed a 2.2% plurality, according to the numbers that I was

01:23:07.220 really too um so that would represent a quite a shift as that held also i'm looking at the counties

01:23:13.940 here uh flagstaff phoenix tucson uh the blue areas of the state the major centers they have reported

01:23:22.580 um there are one two three four five six seven eight counties not yet reporting uh that are

01:23:29.620 mostly more rural so i i would be really shocked if harris's early lead in uh in arizona was to hold

01:23:39.620 up okay so if we may mr hankinson can we come back to the issue of how there's actually two

01:23:46.740 things which kamala harris is obviously forgiven by a lot of people one is the fact that she was

01:23:54.260 the so-called borders are and yet huge number nobody's really knows for sure i don't think

01:24:01.460 of illegal aliens were allowed to cross the border in that three and a half years period

01:24:06.580 somehow that's not considered to be something she should answer for and nor is the fact that she

01:24:12.820 kept the the secret about mr biden's poor health and of course question arises who was actually

01:24:21.220 running the country at that time because it doesn't actually seem like she would have been

01:24:25.300 likely or capable to do it. What do you think? Why are people letting her off? 0.90

01:24:32.580 Well, I don't know if Canadians, I know many of you live close to the border and watch some US

01:24:39.380 channels and have an idea of what our news coverage is like. Newspapers sell fewer and

01:24:46.420 and fewer copies. But the bias in this country in favor of Democrats in the national media,

01:24:53.260 in academia, is simply extraordinary. They've done surveys. NPR recently, a guy who left there

01:24:59.580 said out of 87 editors at National Public Radio in Washington, D.C., there were 87 Democrats and

01:25:06.780 not one Republican. It's almost as bad in the New York Times, the LA Times, the Washington Post,

01:25:13.140 CBS, NBC, ABC, all of the national media. So that's the answer to why she gets a pass.

01:25:19.780 They desperately want her to get elected and they desperately don't want Trump to get elected.

01:25:24.900 You look at the New York Times or the Post every day and you take a snapshot of the articles on

01:25:29.780 the front page, it will be without doubt 10 articles, nine attacking Trump, one supporting

01:25:37.860 or applauding Harris or before her Biden. I mean, just to give two examples, recently,

01:25:43.860 there was the 60 Minutes program, which used to be a very respected news show, where they edited

01:25:51.060 Harris's answer to a question. She has this reputation for word salads. She will just say 1.00

01:25:56.660 a bunch of words in response to a question that don't make a whole lot of sense. And so in order

01:26:00.860 to make the answer to this question about Netanyahu and Israel sound more cogent, they replaced

01:26:06.080 answer A with answer B, and they never released the transcript, the full transcript of the show,

01:26:11.740 which they almost always do. And another example is in the debate against Trump,

01:26:16.660 where she did quite well. She stuck to her talking points. She was fact-checked about

01:26:21.920 zero times, and Trump was fact-checked, often erroneously, multiple times in the middle of

01:26:27.560 the debate by David Muir from ABC in a way that was clearly designed or ended up giving her

01:26:35.500 pronouncements more weight than his. So essentially she has had a sort of Cinderella run and it's not

01:26:42.180 quite midnight during this entire campaign where she's not held accountable for her previous

01:26:47.100 positions. She's never done. Trump was on Joe Rogan. It's like a three hour interview or J.D.

01:26:52.740 Vance did Joe Rogan. But Kamala Harris could never do a show of that length because at some point 1.00

01:26:58.140 she would be asked to defend a previous position or asked to explain some sort of dichotomy or,

01:27:05.100 you know controversy that that she simply couldn't well that's a i thought you might

01:27:13.660 say something like that but i wanted to hear it from somebody on your side of the border because

01:27:18.300 that certainly is the way that we that we tend to observe it up here unless you watch fox news

01:27:26.140 you will not get a different point of view anywhere in the u.s media it seems to us

01:27:35.100 That said, do you have any theories on the decision-making process within the White House during the last couple of years?

01:27:45.260 Well, there were a few journalists who had the courage to point out that President Biden just simply wasn't the man he was in 2020, let alone 2016.

01:27:57.920 I mean, if you watch a speech of Biden, he's had a 50-year career as a politician.

01:28:03.760 He's never been the sharpest knife in the drawer.

01:28:06.620 He's not a great intellectual heavyweight.

01:28:09.160 He was caught lying about his being at the top of his class in law school and when he

01:28:13.580 ran for president back in 1988, I think it was.

01:28:17.200 But he was able to articulate his opinions.

01:28:20.180 He was able to answer questions, to make a joke, had a very folksy style.

01:28:23.800 And as the years wore on, anyone watching him could see that he was sort of falling back on some very basic, you know, jokes and talking points and responses and ticks, you know, like, come on, man.

01:28:35.960 And I'm not kidding. And it's no joke. And a few journalists dared to point it out, but to the detriment of their careers.

01:28:42.520 So I suspect that usually the vice president has no role in the White House. That's an old joke in the United States. And Biden and Harris weren't known to be particularly close. He chose her for cold, calculating political reasons and not because they had any kind of personal bond.

01:29:00.240 So I think it was the, you know, the younger, hardcore intellectual lefties around President Biden, his advisors who were really running the policy.

01:29:12.160 And I think that partly explains why a man who was elected on a promise of being sort of a moderate Democrat who just keep the ship of state sailing straight so he could have a real election four years later, just steered it sharply to the left on immigration, on race, on gender, on taxes, on spending, and just about everything else.

01:29:35.200 Well, that's an incredible story.

01:29:39.600 Okay.

01:29:40.280 Well, thank you.

01:29:40.740 I think we're going to have to go to the newsroom now for some more updates on Georgia.

01:29:47.260 Simon, thank you very much for joining us tonight.

01:29:50.600 I don't know if you're available for us to check in with you later.

01:29:53.420 I know you're on the East Coast.

01:29:54.460 It'll be a little further past beyond your bedtime, but we'd be grateful if you could join in later if you're available.

01:30:03.360 Sure thing, yeah.

01:30:04.760 Thank you very much.

01:30:06.000 Thank you.

01:30:06.320 Okay. I want, I'm looking at 270 and I see a very big call right now. Let's, let's go to Dave in the newsroom. Dave, I'm looking at, Dave, you've got to deal with that dinging.

01:30:20.760 I know, I know.

01:30:22.740 You're knobby. You're not the dinger. You're going to become the dinger, Sam.

01:30:25.900 Very true.

01:30:27.480 Dave, let's pull up the map on the same side here.

01:30:31.280 Oh, that's the wrong one, actually.

01:30:34.400 But here, actually, I'll take that in that map.

01:30:37.280 I'll get the right map up here in a moment.

01:30:38.840 Dave, I'm looking at Georgia.

01:30:40.220 Yeah, and it looks like Georgia has elected Donald Trump.

01:30:44.840 He's been declared the victor of the state.

01:30:47.600 88% of the votes cast.

01:30:51.320 He's got about a 180,000 vote lead.

01:30:56.500 51.2% to 48%.

01:30:59.780 So that's big.

01:31:01.340 That's 16 electoral college votes going his way.

01:31:06.800 Okay, so we're going to bring up the map here.

01:31:10.320 That's getting really red.

01:31:12.800 Georgia is a probably need to win for Trump,

01:31:17.440 but it wasn't a must-must-win,

01:31:19.200 but it was a probably need to win.

01:31:20.880 Trump is at 142 electoral votes confirmed.

01:31:24.760 confirmed harris is at 108 but i mean she's got another solid 100 in that call because you know

01:31:30.340 we got we got the we got the left coast yeah well we got some interesting things just a side note

01:31:34.660 to pop in i'm looking at 70 counted in virginia and it's 49.3 for harris to 49.1 for trump virginia

01:31:42.440 you would have thought would have been a stronger uh democrat stronghold and they got nearly 70

01:31:47.240 percent counted and they are only 7 000 votes apart right now uh in that state might still hold

01:31:54.880 on well no no virginia is at 95 percent reporting okay i'm looking at fox they've only got seven

01:31:59.600 yeah i'm looking here they're way behind cory uh but it is still close it's 49.5 for harris

01:32:06.660 48.8 for trump i'm looking here there's a little a few more counties to come in she's probably 1.00

01:32:14.040 going to take it. But it should have been a blowout. Virginia is supposed to be a solid blue state 0.99

01:32:17.740 nowadays, since kind of D.C. kind of grew out effectively into it. Virginia should not be in

01:32:24.700 the toss-up column. No, no, which again is that close anyways at any point is surprising.

01:32:29.160 Derek, I've actually got Trump at 242.

01:32:34.820 242 confirmed, but Trump is at 262 confirmed or leading. Harris is at 226.

01:32:44.040 confirmed or leaning because you know so we're just going to put the left coast in her column 1.00

01:32:48.520 uh if if that's not a solid wall of hard blue then it's uh you know it's it's a Hiroshima 0.91

01:32:55.480 yeah and that leaves that leaves Trump only eight votes short yeah uh Trump is 262 either

01:33:01.960 confirmed or leaning eight electoral votes short of a confirmed win um Harris 226 confirmed or leaning

01:33:12.920 uh you know being reasonable here um this is uh yeah i'm uh dave uh check out uh with the the new

01:33:23.880 york uh post or new york times uh predictor uh now that george has been called uh what's that

01:33:29.560 81 new york times president again oh my god okay they've got him uh estimated to win 296

01:33:41.800 seats to 242. You use the word seats. That's a very Canadian thing. You take away those votes,

01:33:50.960 50 votes from California, and it's really a crushing defeat for Harris today.

01:33:55.400 Okay, guys, now we're going to play the game. We're going to play the fun map game.

01:33:59.260 Let's, Nico, let's pull up the map. Just map on the screen. I want everybody to really see this.

01:34:05.200 we're going to work out the scenarios.

01:34:08.720 So based on what we got here, 262 leaning or confirmed for Trump, 226 leaning or confirmed

01:34:19.440 for Harris.

01:34:21.000 So now that Trump has taken Georgia, things get a lot easier at this point.

01:34:27.340 So let's pay attention to this, ma'am.

01:34:29.800 Let's try and zoom it in a little here.

01:34:32.000 Okay. So at this point, you need 270 to win. Trump is at 242 confirmed, 20 leaning. I'm inclined to think the way this night's going, all those leaning are going to be Republican. It's all down to those 50 toss-ups right now.

01:34:50.200 So Trump only needs eight to win. He can win only one more state, any one more genuine battleground state other than Nevada, and he wins.

01:35:05.400 Now, because look, Nevada here, Nevada gets them to 268, too short. So Nevada does not get them there. So Nevada, at this point, sorry, Nevada, you don't matter.

01:35:20.200 but any other toss-up state.

01:35:25.020 Pennsylvania, that gets him to 281, more than enough to win.

01:35:30.980 Michigan, 277, seven more than he needs to win.

01:35:37.620 Wisconsin gets him to a bare 272, only two more than he needs to win.

01:35:42.840 Trump, based on where we're at right now,

01:35:46.980 Trump needs to win only one more battleground state.

01:35:50.640 Just one, other than Nevada and his president.

01:35:54.540 And hold his current ones, yeah.

01:35:56.020 Yeah, yeah.

01:35:57.220 Based on his confirmed and leaning,

01:35:59.380 I think based on the trends,

01:36:00.800 I'd be very surprised if any of his leaning states

01:36:03.620 didn't actually get confirmed for him.

01:36:06.320 Certainly looking promising for him.

01:36:07.680 There's no doubt about that.

01:36:09.100 There are four more toss-up states.

01:36:13.060 He's won all the toss-ups so far.

01:36:15.020 Four more to go.

01:36:16.020 three of them three of those are enough electoral votes to put them over so derek this is how it

01:36:24.420 looks now and it could be that we get to 11 o'clock and it looks like a trump clean sweep

01:36:30.360 it's going is this going to be 2020 all over again that is the question i wish we knew

01:36:36.920 whether these states that have been called have actually completed all of the count that they

01:36:42.960 need to complete. Yeah, that's a fair point. That's a fair point. Interesting quote from

01:36:49.220 Elon Musk just now, who tweeted on X, game, set and match. A lot of people are crediting him

01:36:59.460 buying Twitter is actually the moment the campaign turned around. Yeah. I mean, I didn't give a crap

01:37:10.380 on Twitter for years, and it's spicy now. 0.97

01:37:12.560 Well, and something we didn't get to

01:37:14.120 with the last guest,

01:37:14.800 when we mentioned about how badly leaning

01:37:16.740 legacy media is and conventional media

01:37:18.820 is in the United States,

01:37:19.560 but if we're going to talk about polls, too,

01:37:21.280 and kind of cross subjects,

01:37:22.840 trust in media in all of North America

01:37:24.960 has been in sharp decline.

01:37:26.540 If people aren't trusting,

01:37:27.580 it could actually be backfiring to a degree

01:37:29.660 with people when they see these

01:37:31.180 establishment media outlets

01:37:32.680 and young people say,

01:37:33.500 well, if they're pushing that hard this way,

01:37:36.280 their rebellious attitude is saying,

01:37:37.940 well, I'm going the other way.

01:37:39.220 You want to fight the men,

01:37:40.380 You vote conservative now.

01:37:42.820 Nico, let's get the map back up there.

01:37:46.040 So we just went through that exercise now about how easy it is now for Trump to get to 270.

01:37:51.400 One more of the three biggest swing states left.

01:37:55.360 He doesn't even need Nevada.

01:37:57.520 He needs either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

01:38:00.940 Pennsylvania is probably his best.

01:38:04.580 Actually, I'm not sure actually how those ones are doing yet.

01:38:07.280 But let's do this exercise backwards for Harris.

01:38:12.160 So based on her leaning and called and Trump's leaning and called, let's say those stay the same.

01:38:16.300 And we're talking just battlegrounds that are left over.

01:38:19.520 Say she wins the big prize, Pennsylvania.

01:38:24.760 Still not enough.

01:38:25.860 That gets her still far short at 242.

01:38:29.300 We add Michigan to her. 0.65

01:38:31.900 She's still short at 260.

01:38:35.200 She would also need to win Wisconsin, Wisconsin with a lot of tour votes to get her to a bear, bear 270. 1.00

01:38:48.380 And that would be Trump at 268.

01:38:51.000 I mean, it would be a photo finish.

01:38:54.220 So looking up here, these three states, so Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

01:39:02.820 She has to win all three of the biggest battleground states left.

01:39:08.800 That's a tall order.

01:39:11.340 I'm looking here at how they're going.

01:39:15.320 So still a fair bit to count, a lot to count in Wisconsin.

01:39:18.660 But with 54% estimated reporting in Wisconsin, Trump is leading narrowly, 49.8 to 48.7 in Wisconsin.

01:39:31.780 Michigan, only 24% reporting.

01:39:36.160 A lot to go in Michigan.

01:39:39.160 Michigan's got to be the weirdest shaped state.

01:39:41.900 It's like, is it the only genuinely non-contiguous state that actually doesn't border itself?

01:39:50.200 24%, so a lot to go.

01:39:52.140 Harris does have a lead, 51.5% to 46.7% for Harris over Trump.

01:39:57.580 But really early. Maybe, maybe she gets it. Pennsylvania. Trump. So 59% reporting estimated. Trump leading 50.8 over Harris's 48.2. If Trump wins any one of those three, he is president. Any one. She has to win all three.

01:40:22.520 So at this point in the math, Nevada doesn't count.

01:40:25.580 I'm sorry, Nevada, you're out of the race.

01:40:30.680 Maybe someone else is going to see something that I don't.

01:40:33.360 There's still odd combinations.

01:40:34.740 I mean, Arizona's neck and neck.

01:40:36.120 That's 11 votes sitting there.

01:40:37.800 Oh, okay.

01:40:38.800 So if you look at Nevada and Arizona together,

01:40:40.960 then you're starting to get into that territory, actually, 16, 17 seats.

01:40:44.260 Okay, so let's play that game theoretically here.

01:40:48.960 Pull the map back up.

01:40:50.140 Let's say Arizona goes for Harris.

01:40:55.540 That gets her to 237.

01:40:59.380 She's still far short.

01:41:01.200 She gets that.

01:41:02.420 She gets Nevada. 0.57

01:41:05.960 She gets Pennsylvania.

01:41:11.440 She's still short. 0.89

01:41:13.820 She gets Wisconsin.

01:41:17.100 she would need

01:41:18.940 yeah so with

01:41:21.340 with Arizona

01:41:23.440 that would change the map

01:41:27.520 if she took Nevada

01:41:29.040 and Arizona together

01:41:30.620 again I don't think Arizona is going to her

01:41:32.860 but if Arizona did

01:41:34.200 then she only needs to win 1.00

01:41:36.280 two out of the three big battlegrounds

01:41:38.960 that are left after that

01:41:40.000 she does need to win Nevada 1.00

01:41:42.060 then Nevada does matter 0.80

01:41:43.180 right now I don't think it does

01:41:44.740 but if Arizona flips 0.88

01:41:46.160 then Nevada does matter. But then she needs to win Wisconsin, two of the three of either 1.00

01:41:53.160 Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania to barely make it through. I don't think that's happening.

01:41:58.840 I think Arizona is not going her way. I think she has to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania

01:42:05.620 or she's toast. Well, you know, Derek, one of the things that strikes me is that we're even having

01:42:10.240 this discussion, because we had been given to think that this was going to be a tough

01:42:15.960 go for Mr. Trump, that Kamala Harris was going to, you know, come through in the end. 1.00

01:42:22.360 But now it's relatively early in the evening, and we are considering the possibility that

01:42:27.300 he may actually take it.

01:42:29.360 I find that curious, and it makes me wonder, well, what was the magic that went into the

01:42:36.000 campaign?

01:42:37.000 Now, was it the unity team when he got together?

01:42:40.720 A group of people who, unlike him, were immediately likable.

01:42:46.080 Tulsi Gabbard, Elon Musk, RFK Jr., make America healthy again,

01:42:51.900 brought on the appeal hugely to folks who, if they didn't relate to Trump,

01:42:58.540 they could at least relate to J.D. Vance or to Tulsi Gabbard.

01:43:04.760 And all of a sudden, people, okay, taken together, that's a better crew.

01:43:09.520 And there was the other thing about the Democrats.

01:43:12.920 What a sad, and I don't mean sad in the way we sometimes use it as an insult,

01:43:19.660 but they were so downbeat and so serious and always talking about we have to save democracy,

01:43:27.220 Trump went out there and he made people laugh.

01:43:29.980 But it was actually a fun thing to go to a Trump rally, whereas going to a Harris rally was something you did because you had to cover it.

01:43:42.560 Guys, the New York Times prediction is now 84% Trump as president.

01:43:51.140 The Times isn't eager to have to say that.

01:43:53.560 I remember, I don't remember the exact numbers.

01:43:57.160 You know, maybe Simon, I see Simon sitting there. Simon says, let's bring Simon in. Simon, I don't know if you remember the exact numbers, but I remember the New York Times election predictor.

01:44:11.580 You know, it looked like a pressure gauge between Hillary and Trump. 0.91

01:44:16.740 And I think going into Election Day, it was something like it was in almost certainty.

01:44:23.740 Hillary Clinton was going to smoke Trump in a landslide. 1.00

01:44:27.620 And then you saw it, you know, a little bit of life as it dicked up, up, up, up, up.

01:44:32.340 And then, you know, you'd watch CNN, MSNBC, and then, you know, some of the independents like Young Turks.

01:44:38.220 And, you know, you'd see heads explode in real time.

01:44:40.780 I remember someone said it to a piece of music once.

01:44:43.680 It was great.

01:44:45.660 Do you remember going into, I don't know if you've paid enough attention to know what

01:44:50.700 it was before polls closed today, what the New York Times election prediction was, but

01:44:55.260 do you also remember what it was during Trump-Hillary?

01:44:58.920 I don't remember what the percentage was, but I remember the climate.

01:45:04.600 In 2016, I was here.

01:45:06.680 uh 2020 i was actually in kenya so i was not able to follow it in real time but if you've been

01:45:12.440 watching or following the newspapers here in the u.s in the last couple of weeks there was a huge

01:45:18.840 fuss because usa today and the washington post and one or two others decided not to endorse

01:45:26.280 kamala harris the new york times meanwhile had an editorial that was uh like a big bold 0.99

01:45:32.280 paragraph full of links about you know trump was a fascist and a liar and just i mean it was the 0.90

01:45:38.200 most tabloid style editorial that i've seen out of the new york times in a long time so they have 0.95

01:45:44.040 long ago hoisted their flag on the ss harris and i think this must be extraordinarily painful for

01:45:50.280 them to have to revert to journalism um if this goes the way it did that was uh that was poetically

01:45:58.680 put uh simon um uh uh you know cory actually you you've got the election predictor can you send

01:46:06.360 that to me i took that off that was from the new york times actually um get it to me i want to say

01:46:10.840 i want to share that i gotta find it again i'm sorry give it back give it back um it's great

01:46:15.240 uh it's looking uh i don't have the numbers in front of me because uh cory doesn't follow

01:46:19.000 instructions well but um uh the new york times election predictor has also got a predictor of

01:46:24.440 popular vote and it looks right now like the popular vote is even leaning for Trump now um

01:46:31.640 if a republican wins the pop the way the electoral college works because it

01:46:35.160 that tends to give uh can you it's very tight on that send me the link all right send me the link

01:46:39.720 it's it's an x link i got send me the link all right um the uh if a republican wins the popular

01:46:46.120 vote he is extremely likely to win the electoral college because the electoral college gives a

01:46:51.400 a little extra weight to the smaller states which are mostly but not entirely republican there's

01:46:55.640 you know things like vermont new hampshire they're no fancy new hampshire uh love your license plate

01:47:01.160 but uh you know it gives weight to smaller smaller populated states um uh i think the

01:47:08.440 i'm not positive but i think the last time simon maybe you probably know better than i would the

01:47:13.240 last time a republican won the actual popular vote in the states was ah was it george hw bush

01:47:21.400 You know, I think you might be right, but I do remember it's been a while and it certainly wasn't Trump in 2016.

01:47:29.140 Yeah, we're going to come back to you in a moment, but there's a mad echo on you.

01:47:33.980 So I don't know if you want to check your systems a bit there.

01:47:39.480 OK, we're going to come back to Simon in a bit.

01:47:42.360 Let's maybe let's let's check back in with Dave in the newsroom.

01:47:45.960 This is this is getting hot. How did you send me that link?

01:47:48.560 I emailed it.

01:47:49.640 email this i uh i sent it also to nico if he wants to put it up on the screen

01:47:54.820 i've got it i can um i'm gonna get it here i've actually i'm learning how to use my computer

01:48:02.520 machine and uh oh god well it's the times dave should have it though he's looking at the same

01:48:09.500 thing okay uh yeah maybe uh okay uh yeah maybe dave uh send it over to nico um but let's uh

01:48:18.180 Let's pull up the map.

01:48:19.740 Let's pull up the big map right now.

01:48:26.300 Okay.

01:48:28.020 Let's get the map up there.

01:48:29.860 Dave, any new insights?

01:48:33.560 I got the latest from Pennsylvania where they're at 61% of the polls reporting.

01:48:39.580 It's almost 51% for Trump, 48.2% for Harris.

01:48:46.220 And it's a 120,000-vote lead in Pennsylvania.

01:48:53.860 I'll just quickly check in with Arizona, where 53% reporting, and it's Harris with a 3,000-vote lead there.

01:49:02.300 Long way to go.

01:49:03.600 That's going to be going all night.

01:49:05.480 Yeah.

01:49:05.840 So I've pulled up Arizona on the map here.

01:49:08.760 See, I'm getting better at the Internet.

01:49:10.220 um the uh the counties that have not so you'll see flagstaff phoenix tucson uh the counties that

01:49:18.440 contain the three big population centers that will tend to lean democrat and are blue they have

01:49:23.840 reported but they're one two uh which ones are these la paz apache cochise santa cruz and gila

01:49:34.480 Not that I know anything about those areas.

01:49:37.420 They're pretty sparsely populated areas.

01:49:39.100 You're getting Yuma and Quartzite and a few smaller.

01:49:41.780 Yeah, all I can say is they're rural, sparsely populated.

01:49:46.680 Those are likely to come in red for Trump.

01:49:50.300 And those are not yet reporting.

01:49:52.060 So same in Pennsylvania, Derek.

01:49:55.200 The cities, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Harrisburg, they're solidly Harris. 0.79

01:50:00.020 The rural areas are solidly Trump.

01:50:02.020 yeah here uh nico bring the map back up i want to uh i want to uh oh did i um

01:50:11.160 oh i think i killed them did i kill the map i killed the map uh okay here uh here we go 0.68

01:50:19.900 pennsylvania let's bring up the map here 87 now derek on the new york times uh forecast

01:50:26.820 And they say he is likely to win the U.S. election.

01:50:32.100 New York Times saying Trump likely to win the U.S. election.

01:50:37.520 It's looking that way.

01:50:39.120 It's funny that that changed, though.

01:50:40.220 You know, it always used to be you just wait until you call.

01:50:42.820 I mean, I think that kind of all changed back with the Gore-Bush election.

01:50:47.580 So somebody called it, and then all of a sudden.

01:50:49.600 But now we'll start to say likely.

01:50:50.900 We want to be almost the first out of the gate.

01:50:54.000 Yeah.

01:50:54.360 Probably has it.

01:50:55.180 um yeah uh i was watching uh i watched just i just finished watching um succession and uh

01:51:04.140 the last season of succession uh you know they run like a it's supposed to be like a fictitious uh

01:51:09.080 fox news and you know they call it for trump and whatnot and it's it's all uh i won't get it it's

01:51:15.640 it's fun. Um, okay. Yeah, yeah, I agree. Uh, yeah, let Ryan know here. Um, let's see,

01:51:26.180 am I able to get, oh my God, that's not working. Okay. Uh, let's, uh, have we got pencil? Yeah,

01:51:34.400 We've got Pennsylvania up there.

01:51:40.040 Where's our Pennsylvania?

01:51:41.440 Oh, no.

01:51:43.320 Pennsylvania.

01:51:44.340 Okay, so, again, I'm not going to pretend to know.

01:51:48.120 Some place called Clearfield County and some place called Cameron County.

01:51:52.660 Neither are reporting.

01:51:54.260 But they appear to be in the middle of nowhere.

01:51:57.680 The middle of nowhere, that's a bunch of Pennsylvania Dutch or something. 1.00

01:52:02.900 Clearfield, I think, has Puxatoni and State College.

01:52:06.200 State College might be an interesting community that will pop in there.

01:52:10.920 Williamsport, it's a different county, but it gets a little farther over.

01:52:13.720 But it's an interesting state.

01:52:15.120 I spent a lot of time bouncing around in there.

01:52:17.040 Just so you guys know, Puxatoni, that's where the movie Grandhog Day is.

01:52:21.140 Puxatoni Phil.

01:52:22.360 You seen those people?

01:52:23.600 Those look like Republicans to me.

01:52:26.180 And every time they vote like Grandhog Day, they always vote Republican.

01:52:28.660 Those smaller towns, they're as rare as they get, yeah.

01:52:32.700 All right. Anything else from you, Dave?

01:52:37.120 Just an interesting financial market reacting.

01:52:40.540 The dollar is already soaring around the world and Bitcoin has hit an all-time high.

01:52:46.900 So if you're a Bitcoin investor, you've made a lot of money tonight.

01:52:50.460 Oh, good.

01:52:50.800 Well, I know Elon tried to make a go of Dogecoin, which is hilarious because the Department of Government, what is it, accountability or I don't know.

01:53:01.480 So, man, Elon Musk in cabinet, that's going to be lit.

01:53:07.140 I mean, I can never remember Milo or whatever.

01:53:10.440 What's the name of the Argentine president? 0.99

01:53:13.000 The madman. 0.99

01:53:13.580 Milley or... 0.99

01:53:14.620 Milley.

01:53:15.900 Yeah.

01:53:17.480 If I'm a U.S. civil servant, I'm not sleeping very well tonight,

01:53:21.460 knowing that Elon Musk is coming in and chopping jobs.

01:53:25.520 Yeah, Elon Musk has pledged to cut $2 trillion, with a T,

01:53:29.000 trillion dollars from the U.S.

01:53:31.940 Now, over how many years?

01:53:33.900 I don't know.

01:53:35.720 But

01:53:35.900 that'd just be absolutely wild.

01:53:40.500 My concern is that at this point

01:53:42.120 Elon's not really doing it for the money.

01:53:43.740 He's engaged with these great enterprises

01:53:45.740 of renewable energy

01:53:47.280 and putting a man

01:53:50.000 on Mars, making the human

01:53:52.080 race interplanetary.

01:53:54.800 Those things kind of seem more

01:53:55.960 important than actually running the government to me

01:53:57.840 at this point, and I don't want him distracted

01:53:59.720 from that.

01:54:00.560 And saving free speech for things like X.

01:54:03.840 Yeah, he's running like a dozen companies.

01:54:06.000 I'm not sure how he's doing

01:54:07.740 it so efficiently. I struggle

01:54:09.580 to run one.

01:54:12.480 Okay.

01:54:14.680 Let's

01:54:15.080 take a look, actually, at Wisconsin

01:54:17.440 and Michigan. What have we got there?

01:54:21.520 So 59%

01:54:22.800 reporting in Wisconsin.

01:54:26.460 Trump, with a

01:54:27.420 very narrow lead, 50.1 to Harris's 48.3. I'll show the folks that. So Wisconsin, if Trump wins

01:54:39.440 Wisconsin, he's president. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, you see here, he is president.

01:54:49.760 If Trump wins, Michigan, which you see here, he's president.

01:54:56.360 Now, Kamala Harris has a slight lead. 1.00

01:54:59.640 There's only 30% reporting in Michigan, but she's 51.9 to 46.4.

01:55:05.480 So she's got a decent-ish lead in Michigan.

01:55:09.560 But Trump has got a lead in Wisconsin.

01:55:13.780 Trump is leading in Pennsylvania.

01:55:16.540 Any one of those three.

01:55:19.120 So bringing back to the big map here, any one of those three battleground states you see there in kind of an ugly, pukey beige, I'll call it, pukey beige, if Trump wins any one of those three, he's president.

01:55:37.000 Gentlemen, all right, let's take the map down.

01:55:39.680 Gentlemen, he's going to win one of those three.

01:55:44.580 I believe you're right.

01:55:45.740 On probability.

01:55:46.660 And looking at it, he's leading in two out of the three.

01:55:49.000 The one he's not leading on has got not many reporting.

01:55:53.120 I think he's going to win one of those three.

01:55:54.760 I think we need to hope that he doesn't just win, but that he wins big.

01:55:58.380 Because it's going to be bad enough to get the Democrats to relinquish the White House anyway. 0.70

01:56:06.040 You may depend there are going to be legal challenges to this vote and to that vote.

01:56:10.860 They may well try to stall the thing off.

01:56:12.960 I'm not suggesting that they would mount an insurrection or have their own January the 6th.

01:56:17.600 I'm not saying that, but they will use...

01:56:19.760 Lucky for us, Democrats don't have guns. 0.56

01:56:21.820 Well, they don't have legal guns.

01:56:23.880 They could buy them.

01:56:24.640 But at any rate, what I'm saying is that they will take every opportunity.

01:56:30.800 And the closer the result is, the more tempting it will be to exercise that opportunity.

01:56:37.180 In fact, I wonder if we might ask Simon to get Simon back on the...

01:56:42.300 yes oh actually uh we've got uh 10 quickly just i wonder what uh what sway peanut the squirrel had

01:56:50.780 because we're all thinking of him tonight aren't we peanuts getting the last laugh i think from

01:56:55.820 the other side there um you know i cory real quick uh we got ted morton standing by here

01:57:04.700 real quick explain peanut the squirrel peanut the squirrel was a a fellow who'd had a lot of

01:57:10.940 videos done on it it was a squirrel he adopted as a baby it was a cute house pet it did little tricks

01:57:15.820 it jumped around with him he dressed it up and somebody reported him to the new york authorities

01:57:20.860 and they burst into his house he had a raccoon as well and they seized peanut in the raccoon and

01:57:25.340 they killed him that's as simple as it gets they claim it was because they had to test for rabies

01:57:29.980 but they actually burst into a person's house took their pet and killed it which turned into a symbol

01:57:35.260 of this is how far authoritarianism has gone where you can't even safely keep a house pet without

01:57:41.580 them coming in and potentially killing it how many of them were there on the raiding party

01:57:46.140 oh it was something like 10 it was nuts it was just five hours for a squirrel first world yeah

01:57:53.100 yeah and uh i mean it's funny but the dark dark comedy it is and it has just become some of the

01:58:01.580 greatest uh meme content of all time well and you know just to close up before we get to mr

01:58:08.300 morton in a not too much of a big joking way this is my screen here this is the world run by memes

01:58:13.260 and trends and to have something like this break just before an election this is the sort of thing

01:58:17.260 that can change things by a point or two and uh i i think peanut had a little bit of an impact on

01:58:23.340 things or the thing never and also don't forget the uh the poor cats and dogs that we're eating

01:58:29.340 we're getting easy they were eating the dogs they're eating the cats of the people that live

01:58:35.660 there it's like yeah yeah yeah so like yeah you know the at least with peanut it really happened

01:58:41.020 but well we it may have happened with the other stuff it's hard to say they're conflicting reports

01:58:46.060 there but peanut and do not forget uh what was the uh the name of the raccoon that killed two

01:58:51.180 that i don't remember they murdered the raccoon yes they murdered his his little raccoon but peanut

01:58:55.420 the squirrel had a million tiktok followers uh this it is this squirrel is more popular than

01:59:02.140 almost any person in america appears to be more popular in paris right now so yeah so uh just take

01:59:07.820 a quick before we bring in uh mr ted morton just a moment of silence for peanut

01:59:14.300 and uh i just i just want to note that 60 years from now high school students will be taught

01:59:21.100 how the government execution of an innocent squirrel on TikTok

01:59:26.540 led to the re-election, the return of President Donald J. Trump.

01:59:32.420 At least the contributing factor, yes.

01:59:34.020 I think you're going to have to live long enough to write the history books, Derek.

01:59:38.460 We'll see.

01:59:39.200 We all pray for that.

01:59:40.820 Okay.

01:59:42.520 Dave, I know you just sent me a message here.

01:59:45.140 You've got an update.

01:59:46.280 We're going to do this quick update, and then we're going to go to Dr. Ted Morton.

01:59:51.100 oh we can't hear you dave

01:59:55.180 sorry guys uh yes cnn has already started the morning it appears

02:00:01.000 they are reporting that kamala harris's headquarters has fallen into a complete silence

02:00:07.960 uh no i've lost the rest of the tweet here it is uh crowds of supporters visibly tense

02:00:17.720 with some pacing while others are beginning to lose hope as updates come in so all together now

02:00:24.480 boo-hoo all right thank you dave you're welcome all right let's drink some liberal tears here

02:00:33.900 all right uh well i'm eager to bring in our next guest uh dr ted morton coming to us

02:00:41.220 from uh what looks like uh i can't get a good nephew are those deer are those elk on your wall

02:00:46.700 I think deer.

02:00:47.740 They're not squirrels.

02:00:52.580 Giant jackalope, giant Montana jackalopes.

02:00:56.220 Dr. Ted Morton is the former finance minister, or as we used to call it back then, the treasurer of Alberta.

02:01:03.460 And he is a dual citizen of the United States and Alberta.

02:01:08.500 I like to say it like that.

02:01:10.740 Dr. Ted Morton, thank you for joining us this evening.

02:01:14.380 Happy to be with you guys.

02:01:15.740 have been chuckling over your last 10 minutes of comments.

02:01:20.320 So really close race in Montana, right?

02:01:23.960 Not in Montana at all.

02:01:27.720 Montana's Trump territory.

02:01:29.760 The big issue here is whether Tester,

02:01:32.360 the two-term Democrat incumbent senator,

02:01:35.640 could get reelected.

02:01:37.000 Historically, he was, I think,

02:01:38.900 what most of us small-city Western conservatives

02:01:42.240 would call a good Democrat,

02:01:43.920 independent, didn't go with the liberal wing of the party. But in the last six months,

02:01:50.020 last six years, he has. And he's been caught out on that. And it looks like he's going to go down.

02:01:55.540 So I think it's just as well, obviously, the presidency election is the most important.

02:02:01.120 But who controls the Senate, who controls the House is also important. It looks to me like

02:02:05.700 like the Republicans at least won. They're going to win the Senate seat here. Tester is going to

02:02:11.280 lose. They've won a Senate seat in West Virginia. I think they're going to win some more, too. So

02:02:16.460 I think the Senate's going to go Republican as well. Yeah, they already held the House. I'd be

02:02:21.980 shocked if they lost the House. And well, the Democrats have got nearly three times as many

02:02:26.300 seats they're playing defense on in the Senate right now as the Republicans, just the way it's

02:02:31.480 working out. The ones I'm watching, the Senate elections in the all three of the blue wall

02:02:39.400 states and then nevada and arizona are still too close to call so we'll see we should point out to

02:02:44.600 some canadian viewers might not be familiar with it though not every senate seat goes up every um

02:02:49.880 election there's midterms that'll change things it's not the same as it is well it's one third

02:02:54.040 of the senate every two years 30 33 every every two years yeah yeah and then i guess every once

02:03:01.640 Once in a while, there's an off here to get to the round.

02:03:04.960 Yeah.

02:03:06.680 But that's, I was, I think I shared this with Nigel earlier today.

02:03:12.680 I was predicting, and it looks like I'm going to be wrong.

02:03:16.480 I thought Harris was going to win.

02:03:19.480 I thought there was going to be lots of what Americans call split ticket voting, where

02:03:23.540 people voted Harris for president and then Republicans for Senate and House.

02:03:29.260 That's not, in other words, they were going to hedge their bets.

02:03:31.640 You preempted me. I was looking forward to trying to rub it in your face, but you just got right ahead of it. I saw that from you. Yeah, Republican House, Republican Senate, but Kamala Harris is president. Are you feeling what we're feeling, that that's not the case tonight?

02:03:52.220 Yeah. Obviously, I thought I thought there was going to be enough late breaking support for Harris that she was going to win a clear electoral college majority. 0.89

02:04:04.000 That's obviously not going to happen. The so-called blue wall states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, still too close to call.

02:04:13.100 You guys, I think, have it right that if she's in trouble, she needs to carry all three plus keep Nevada.

02:04:19.900 or if she doesn't have Nevada, then get, what is it, Arizona. 1.00

02:04:24.160 But it's going to be very close, which I think is a bit unfortunate.

02:04:28.660 I think it would be better.

02:04:29.820 I think Nigel was hinting at this earlier.

02:04:31.920 It would be better for the United States if one of the two had won a clear majority.

02:04:36.160 If it's going to come down to one or two electoral college votes

02:04:39.060 and a few tight races in the House, 0.97

02:04:42.540 then we're going to – could be in for another couple months of litigation

02:04:47.200 and allegations and basically ugliness?

02:04:51.040 Well, I don't know.

02:04:52.280 I'm looking at the numbers here.

02:04:54.000 And here, Nico, let's pull up the map.

02:04:59.060 So based on where we're at right now, even if, like, let's just leave Nevada out.

02:05:05.560 Nevada, unless Arizona flips, Nevada doesn't seem to really be a player here.

02:05:09.700 uh if trump wins pennsylvania he he does get a clear electoral college majority 281 uh like it's

02:05:18.840 pretty clear even the smallest if he only wins the smallest of those blue wall rust belt states

02:05:24.840 wisconsin that gets them to 272 that that's a pretty slim margin but uh wisconsin's probably

02:05:32.180 not even his best chance to break through the blue wall it's probably pennsylvania

02:05:35.340 for Harris to win

02:05:38.360 it's mighty narrow

02:05:40.180 and it would be a very narrow win

02:05:42.060 for her

02:05:43.160 I think at this point

02:05:45.140 I'd be shocked if Trump

02:05:48.340 lost at this point unless there's crazy

02:05:50.420 stuff with the mail-in ballots that come in

02:05:52.420 but

02:05:54.300 I'd be surprised if Trump only

02:05:56.280 won one more of the four toss-ups

02:05:58.460 at this point

02:05:59.040 and I guess I will be

02:06:04.500 too

02:06:04.880 Although, again, right now they're all too close to call.

02:06:09.740 48 hours ago, I thought Harris was going to carry at least, leaving Nevada out, at least two, if not all three, of the so-called blue wall states.

02:06:20.580 Maybe she still will, but certainly not clear that she will.

02:06:27.780 So, Ted, you weren't quite sure about that.

02:06:31.920 What do you think might have gone wrong?

02:06:34.980 You were not the only one.

02:06:36.560 A lot of people were saying Kamala was going to take it.

02:06:40.160 Obviously, if she does, it's not going to be by the kind of margins

02:06:43.900 that they had in mind, and perhaps you anticipated.

02:06:47.540 For most Americans, I would say easily well over half, 60%.

02:06:53.160 The choice this year was between which is the least worst of the two candidates.

02:06:58.460 I know you guys like Trump a lot.

02:07:00.860 he's

02:07:03.500 you actually might be surprised

02:07:05.900 some of us

02:07:06.560 I grudgingly vote for him but there's a lot I don't like about the guy

02:07:10.000 all I'm saying is

02:07:11.760 I think this was kind of

02:07:12.740 Trump

02:07:14.560 yes okay

02:07:15.360 for a lot of Americans

02:07:19.280 this was a choice between who is the least worst

02:07:21.820 and Trump was seen

02:07:23.680 as dangerous

02:07:25.060 extreme

02:07:26.940 and egotist

02:07:30.500 all of the people who worked with him in the last election that then have come

02:07:35.680 out against him, that hurt badly. But on the other side,

02:07:40.320 the more people, well, if, if there,

02:07:42.100 if the Democrats had had a so-called normal year where Biden would have

02:07:46.860 stepped aside back in January and they would have had Harris never would have

02:07:51.720 won the democratic nomination. She, she's their candidate by default, right?

02:07:56.080 Cause there was, it was too late for anybody else. And it's pretty,

02:07:59.720 She got a big bump when when Biden dropped out and then she got a bit of a bump in Chicago for their national convention.

02:08:07.460 But the more Americans have seen her for the last two and a half months, the less they like her.

02:08:14.080 She's, you know, too woke, too extreme.

02:08:17.180 She kind of seems like a B Hollywood actress is just reading the scripts that are being given to her. 0.71

02:08:22.840 So obviously, and I'm aware of that.

02:08:26.800 I think I wrote that in the piece that I shared with you.

02:08:29.720 But I thought that would weigh less negatively on her than the negatives on Trump.

02:08:37.940 And I think my impression is wrong that the negative impression the more Americans have seen of her, the less they've liked her may tip the balance.

02:08:50.560 Although, again, remains to be seen in these so-called blue wall states.

02:08:54.920 The big change, and again, this is from somebody that's taught American politics, you know, up at the U of C for almost 40 years. Historically, college educated and therefore more affluent Americans were pretty reliable Republican voters.

02:09:12.300 And blue-collar, particularly blue-collar, white families were very reliable Democratic Party supporters.

02:09:23.040 That's almost been turned 180 degrees in the last decade.

02:09:28.460 And that represents a real change in American politics.

02:09:33.480 And how that goes forward from here, I'm not sure.

02:09:39.060 But a dramatic change from what would have still been the case even 15 years ago.

02:09:46.560 I want to get way ahead of ourselves, way ahead of ourselves here to post-Trump.

02:09:53.200 Let's say he wins tonight, which I'm looking at the New York Times election predictor, 88% chance of victory at this point.

02:10:04.320 Estimating he's going to get 301 electoral votes, way more than he needs.

02:10:09.060 And they're predicting he's going to get some of those blue wall states.

02:10:13.500 Yeah, absolutely. And predicting he actually wins the popular vote by one point one percent, which would be the first Republican.

02:10:20.000 I could be wrong, but Republicans generally don't often win the popular vote.

02:10:25.460 You know, often enough win the Electoral College, but that he'll actually win the popular vote by more than a percent, which is the first time since 88.

02:10:33.680 I could. That would be that would be significant.

02:10:36.780 I'd be very, very, very unpredicted in the surprise.

02:10:41.140 Yeah. So let's say that happens, because we know we know the New York Times isn't pulling for this result.

02:10:48.900 If they're saying it, they must grudgingly believe it. Let's look ahead four years.

02:10:55.140 J.D. I actually just a moment of silence for Generation X.

02:10:59.080 There's never been a Generation X candidate for president or vice president.

02:11:03.420 and Trump just totally skipped Generation X

02:11:07.580 and went straight to a millennial with J.D. Vance.

02:11:12.240 How do you think J.D. Vance has come out of this?

02:11:14.400 And do you think, because he's in the very fortunate position

02:11:17.620 of only having to cool his heels for one term

02:11:20.380 before he gets his shot at the brass ring.

02:11:24.900 How do you think J.D. Vance is going to shape up out of this,

02:11:28.520 perhaps as both a generational leader and as the,

02:11:31.500 a candidate with the inside track, at least, for the Republican nomination four years from now?

02:11:38.120 Depending on how the next four years go, he potentially is the inside, would have the inside

02:11:43.840 track. I read his book, was it four or five years ago? I thought it was pretty interesting,

02:11:50.700 and it began to explain the shift that I was just talking about of blue-collar white families

02:11:55.820 leaving the Democrats and going to going over to the Republicans.

02:12:01.740 And I think other than his he got in trouble for what what was his comment about single single women, cat ladies, single cat ladies or something.

02:12:12.300 Yeah, that was that was rather unfortunate politically.

02:12:16.100 But other than a few missteps like that, I think he's actually been a much more articulate defender of kind of the Republican agenda than Donald Trump.

02:12:27.440 Let's face it, Donald Trump's not that interested in public policy.

02:12:31.180 He likes to attack the other side.

02:12:36.000 So I think Vance could very well be well positioned.

02:12:41.260 And he's very articulate.

02:12:42.620 I mean, he comes from what would have to be called a very underprivileged family.

02:12:47.700 And he ended up going to the Ivy League, getting a law degree.

02:12:53.180 That's a pretty impressive achievement.

02:12:55.260 So I'm, other than the cat lady comment, I think he may have a bright future.

02:13:06.220 So, Ted, you know, you've said all along that you didn't care for Trump because of his personality and his character.

02:13:16.080 What, on a policy side, what harm do you think he could do in the future four years?

02:13:24.020 Because as I look back, I don't see anything terribly regrettable in his policy and actions in his original tenure of office.

02:13:34.640 Fair enough. Fair enough, Nigel.

02:13:36.720 I would say in his original four years, he had some very, a lot of people stepped forward to help him.

02:13:44.060 If you look at his first cabinet, very interesting group of people, all who had very successful careers and were willing to step forward and help Donald Trump.

02:13:56.760 About half of them have now campaigned against him, right?

02:14:00.020 Yeah.

02:14:00.260 because they found his judgment, his egotism, his impetuousness to be dangerous.

02:14:10.840 And so that was certainly a very negative factor in my assessment.

02:14:17.780 As I said in that piece, I think from my own experience in politics,

02:14:22.840 policy is important, but judgment and character are important too.

02:14:26.460 I think Trump scores poorly on both judgment and character.

02:14:30.260 So if you take any confidence from the Unity team, you know, we've got RFK, Elon Musk, J.D. Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, does the fact that people like that have decided to help him get where he's going to get give you any ease?

02:14:47.400 No, no, I would go more. I trust people that have been in the same room with him more than people that haven't. And there's a pretty impressive list of ex cabinet ministers that are very, very negative. So, but obviously, I hope I'm wrong. I hope they're wrong if he ends up winning. So we'll see.

02:15:08.660 I think one of my big concerns, one of my big concerns is internationally, the United States is still de facto the leader of the free world.

02:15:18.820 The free world right now is very much under attack, not just in Eastern Europe, in Ukraine, not just in the Middle East and Israel.

02:15:32.240 North Korea and China are threatening, South Korea and Japan. 0.77

02:15:36.900 Again, Iran, Russia, and China are obviously all working together, funding one another, helping one another.

02:15:47.080 American leadership there is critical.

02:15:49.720 I'm a little worried about what kind of team Trump is going to have around him if he's the president to deal with that.

02:15:55.900 So that's the foreign policy side.

02:15:57.620 Back on the domestic policy side, I think one of the interesting takeaways, and this has relevance in Canada for Daniel Smith in Alberta, and I think nationally for Pierre Poirier and the next federal election here, it's pretty clear there's a huge negative reaction from the middle of the voting class, the middle class,

02:16:22.600 against the anti-family stuff that's coming out of the woke DEI movement.

02:16:30.860 And I think that has ended up, that may be partly explaining why Trump has done so well here.

02:16:38.180 And I think it may explain why. Well, you saw the big positive vote that Danielle got on the weekend from from the from at the AGM.

02:16:53.120 Partly that was, I think, for standing up for Alberta and challenging on the energy policy, climate tradeoffs and so forth.

02:16:59.240 But partly, I think it's standing up for parents' rights, protecting kids against things that were being brought into the schools that were going to be harmful.

02:17:12.240 So I think that's happened in the U.S.

02:17:15.860 There's a reaction against that, and that could splash over, spill over into Canadian.

02:17:21.580 I think it actually already has spilled over into Canadian politics.

02:17:24.600 Look at the first index in my new book, and I talk about that.

02:17:33.320 So I just wonder if another factor that might have happened, though, was, I mean, Trump is a known quantity now, too.

02:17:40.180 I mean, when you've got a new candidate, no matter who it is, you can play the hidden agenda.

02:17:43.560 You can talk about apocalyptic predictions, which there were before he ran the first time.

02:17:48.140 And as opposed to his inner circle, as you said, who found him to be a man of poor judgment and poor character.

02:17:52.800 But the public at large didn't see these shifts or they weren't looking at nuanced foreign policy.

02:17:58.580 So when looking against the almost unknown, you know, woke opposition, they might feel like Trump isn't so bad.

02:18:06.100 They might not like him. He might be bombastic and not even that personable.

02:18:09.720 But they know who he is and he isn't necessarily going to end the world, even if some people are acting as if it would.

02:18:15.340 And again, I'd separate foreign policy from domestic policy, but on the domestic front, the kind of woke DEI, racist, homophobic, sexist, colonialist, all that stuff, that was still kind of, it was there in 2020, but it was a little below the surface.

02:18:38.640 Now it's out there big time. And I think the negative reaction against that is getting bigger and bigger from just normal families, normal people.

02:18:48.120 The United States, the United States had slavery. There are aboriginal issues in the U.S.

02:18:54.460 But still, if you step back and look, Canada, the US, I'd go on and say Australia, compared to the rest of the world, the last 10,000 years, we're better off in terms of security, safety, prosperity, health, equality, all of those things, much, much better off than all the other alternatives.

02:19:21.240 So I think the woke DEI, that crusade, I think, is now backfiring badly.

02:19:29.100 I think that help explains what may be happening today.

02:19:32.760 And I think that is also beginning to happen.

02:19:35.700 We see in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and a couple of the maritime provinces.

02:19:42.060 That and the murder of Peanut.

02:19:46.020 Those are not squirrels on the wall behind me.

02:19:49.920 Those were all awkwardly boistered.

02:19:53.900 They're giant jackalopes. 0.92

02:19:55.780 They fed people.

02:19:57.760 I think they're giant jackalopes.

02:20:01.820 Ted, just stand by.

02:20:03.300 I want to get just a quick update from Dave Naylor in our newsroom.

02:20:06.500 We have some more calls.

02:20:09.040 Nico, let's bring in Dave and get the map back up on the board here.

02:20:15.600 Oh, Dave, we cannot hear you.

02:20:17.080 dave is muted keep inspecting nico to unmute me uh as expected kamala harris wins california

02:20:27.160 oregon and washington uh trump wins idaho and i'll just give you some quick rundowns on the uh

02:20:35.960 the key ones that are still left in the night uh wisconsin trump is up by about 60 000 votes

02:20:43.560 50.6 percent to 47.9 percent interestingly uh rfk has uh secured 11 000 votes which means if it

02:20:54.120 wasn't for that uh trump would be up by 70 000 votes turning to arizona we've got uh 54 counted

02:21:05.000 trump up by only less than 3 000 votes nevada he needs to know i'll let him go

02:21:13.560 20 minutes or you can go nevada nevada nevada we've got uh harrow nothing in nevada yet

02:21:22.280 that seems strange nothing in the vet oh yeah i'm looking at that too that is uh

02:21:28.840 wisconsin uh 66 reporting uh trump um trump is up by exactly 60 000 votes 50.6 to 47.9

02:21:43.560 And Michigan. After Maine, Michigan Harris is up 50.3% to 48%. And she's got about a 43,000 vote lead. And just a quick check. 0.94

02:22:02.760 That is only 35% voting. Wisconsin's returns have kind of stalled for a bit.

02:22:10.180 But yeah, we haven't really seen much from Wisconsin in a while.

02:22:16.520 But it doesn't look like we're going to need Wisconsin, likely.

02:22:20.960 Pennsylvania, Trump seems to be now moving ahead.

02:22:24.700 He's up more than 107,000 votes, 51% to 48% for Harris.

02:22:32.600 2.73 million to 2.56 million, to be nearly exact.

02:22:40.180 Yeah. Yeah. Uh,

02:22:44.620 whew. That's, it's looking like four more years of the orange man.

02:22:49.780 Bad orange man is back. Um, okay.

02:22:55.040 I think that's, uh, yeah, I guess, uh, these get,

02:22:59.480 you know, one of the things that, uh,

02:23:03.280 Nigel and I were talking about yesterday guys is I think one of the,

02:23:06.240 one of the big New York City newspapers were saying we finally reached the end of the pendulum

02:23:12.400 in terms of the woke society and the pendulum is now starting to come back towards more normalcy.

02:23:20.080 You got to think that a Trump presidency is going to increase the momentum of that pendulum.

02:23:26.400 I don't know if it'd be normalcy though, but it would push the woke back anyways.

02:23:30.000 Yeah, yeah. All right. Dave, thank you very much. Let's bring back in. You know what? Actually, do we still have Simon on?

02:23:39.260 Yes, we do.

02:23:39.900 You know what? Let's get Simon and Ted. How does that sound?

02:23:43.420 Sounds good to me.

02:23:44.040 Let's bring in Simon Hankinson from New Hampshire of the Heritage Foundation, leading American conservative think tank.

02:23:53.680 Ted Morton, former Alberta finance minister slash treasurer and also dual citizen of the United States in Alberta.

02:24:04.120 We'll just have a bit more of a maybe a broad open discussion here.

02:24:10.040 Let's let's get the map. Actually, let's get the map.

02:24:14.040 up there, uh, use this one here. Um, so, uh, both gentlemen, um, there are still four toss-up

02:24:24.420 states. Arizona could theoretically go blue, but I just, I'm, I'm, I'm looking at it. It's,

02:24:31.920 it's highly improbable, highly, highly improbable. Uh, Trump's at a hundred and,

02:24:36.180 sorry, 242, sorry, 262, uh, called or leaning. Paris is at 226 called or leaning 50 toss-ups

02:24:46.340 still there. Um, uh, as we were, we were discussing earlier, uh, Nevada probably doesn't

02:24:53.220 matter unless Arizona does something crazy. Um, Trump just needs one of the three blue wall

02:24:59.000 states that are remaining. He either needs Wisconsin and he wins on Wisconsin alone,

02:25:04.600 Michigan, he could win on Michigan alone. Pennsylvania, he could win on Pennsylvania alone.

02:25:12.960 Look, and now we finally got this working. We've got the New York Times live presidential forecast.

02:25:20.380 It has Trump at an 89% chance of winning. He has a range of 255 to 329 electoral college votes as an estimate.

02:25:34.600 And it is estimating him right now to be the first Republican since I was a toddler to win the popular vote, which would be an astounding feat if he actually pulls it off.

02:25:51.760 So let's keep the map up, but maybe just kind of move it to the side for now.

02:25:57.220 Do you guys, maybe I'll stop with you, Simon, and then the same question to Ted.

02:26:04.600 Do you see any realistic path to Kamala Harris winning right now as the map stands?

02:26:13.520 How's the echo?

02:26:17.340 Just checking.

02:26:19.240 You know, there's always a path.

02:26:22.600 Sorry, Simon, you still got that nasty echo.

02:26:28.740 How's that?

02:26:30.880 Is that better?

02:26:32.720 Yes, that is.

02:26:33.380 Go ahead.

02:26:34.600 Yeah. You know, I remember what happened in 2020. 2016 looked a little bit more like

02:26:45.000 tonight in that it was a surprise to a lot of people, but it got called fairly early

02:26:50.120 and it stayed that way. Whereas in 2020, you had a lot of states that looked like they were

02:26:55.480 headed for Trump. And then when some big counties with the big cities were called in,

02:27:01.880 ended up losing those.

02:27:04.060 So, yeah, it is looking

02:27:05.880 much, much harder for Harris. It looks like

02:27:08.020 she'd have to pull all three of those

02:27:10.180 rabbits out of the hat.

02:27:12.660 But Pennsylvania,

02:27:13.960 at least the map I was looking at,

02:27:16.420 is some ways away, and

02:27:17.940 they probably haven't counted Philadelphia,

02:27:20.320 which is where a lot of

02:27:21.800 the population is.

02:27:25.560 Ted,

02:27:26.280 looking at the map,

02:27:28.460 Trump just needs to win

02:27:29.620 either Wisconsin

02:27:31.740 in either Michigan or either Pennsylvania, any one of those three, and he wins.

02:27:37.900 Is this fairly safe to call at this point, or is it –

02:27:44.740 I don't know.

02:27:46.000 I think Simon's right.

02:27:48.760 I mean, how that last couple of percentage points break in those states,

02:27:53.520 it's hard – it's almost impossible to say.

02:27:57.660 It could happen.

02:27:58.440 But if the New York Times says it's an 86 percent probability, like the New York Times isn't happy making that prediction.

02:28:05.640 We all know that. But so we'll see.

02:28:10.500 But the Pennsylvania case is interesting, I think, for Alberta and for Canada, because, as you guys may know,

02:28:18.940 but I think most Canadians, most Albertans wouldn't know.

02:28:21.560 Now, oil and gas, well, actually not oil, gas has become a big part of the Pennsylvania economy with directional drilling and new technologies that make previously unrecoverable gas recoverable, just what we're doing here as well.

02:28:42.460 So, and the anti-energy, in the name of climate change, the anti-energy, anti-pipeline policies

02:28:53.060 of Biden and Harris, I think may explain partly what's happened in Pennsylvania.

02:28:58.720 And going forward again, thinking about Canada-U.S. relations, I think a Biden, excuse me, a Trump

02:29:07.920 presidency will be more supportive of cooperating with Canada on energy security.

02:29:17.520 And Trump worries me a little bit because, as you know, and we all know that he's a bit of

02:29:24.700 a protectionist, and that potentially complicates NAFTA or whatever US, whatever the new form of

02:29:32.200 NAFTA is called, could complicate that. But on energy, which is critical, not just Alberta,

02:29:37.180 for the whole Canadian economy, I think it explains the reaction against the anti-energy.

02:29:45.200 The only thing that counts is climate change approach of Biden and Harris. That's backfired,

02:29:50.940 I think, in Pennsylvania. And particularly if we have a Republican Congress, we're certainly

02:29:56.400 going to have a Republican Senate. The House is still open. We're going to be a much more

02:30:00.840 balanced approach to figuring out how to balance climate change concerns with energy security

02:30:06.100 and inflation and price, because oil and gas, it's not just about cars and heating.

02:30:14.060 It's steel, concrete, plastic, ammonia, fertilizer.

02:30:19.400 Everything that runs the modern economy runs on oil and gas.

02:30:23.560 So that's a big part of the inflation factor.

02:30:28.420 And again, one of the issues that's obviously hurting Harris a lot.

02:30:32.620 Let me ask you for a very bold prediction. If Trump wins, does Keystone get built through both of your homes?

02:30:46.520 Yeah, well, as all three of you know, I was not just a big Keystone supporter, but I worked hard to try to influence opinion on both sides of the border on Keystone.

02:30:59.280 And on day one, the very first day of the Biden administration, he vetoed what Trump had approved.

02:31:09.800 And I do a fair amount of hunting in the fall up in the central east part of Alberta.

02:31:20.520 And all of the pipe that was supposed to be part of between Oyen and Concort,

02:31:25.360 you could see what was supposed to be part of keystone was just left left on the ground there

02:31:29.680 that was being built and uh that was a huge setback for the alberta economy huge setback

02:31:36.720 for the canadian economy and uh again with the trans mountain new tmx expansion that's important

02:31:48.880 Having Canada and Alberta completely dependent on U.S. markets, no industry is good being dependent just on one market.

02:31:56.960 And we have been overly dependent on the U.S. market for oil and gas exports.

02:32:02.860 Trans Mountain Expansion addresses that and begins to solve that.

02:32:06.140 But the fact remains the United States is an ally both economically and strategically in global strategic affairs.

02:32:14.600 Yes, I think, to get to your question, I think there's a very good chance that Keystone will and would come back.

02:32:23.780 Quotation that you've all heard me use before, former governor of Montana said,

02:32:30.080 you don't have to send the National Guard to Alberta to get the oil and gas into the American economy.

02:32:38.240 Indeed.

02:32:38.800 Indeed. Okay, let's, well, Simon, here, let's bring up the side screen here. I want to see where you're at, Simon, here. New York Times still saying there's an 89%. I'll actually have to correct the record here. While we were sitting here, a friend of the Western Standard sent me a message saying I was not a toddler in 2004.

02:33:04.300 uh bush uh versus carry uh bush did beat carry in the popular vote 50.7 to 48.3 so okay uh 2004

02:33:16.720 so 20 years ago was oh my god that was 20 years ago oh 20 years ago was the last time a republican

02:33:23.820 actually beat a democrat for the popular vote uh it's not done but it uh certainly looks uh very

02:33:32.140 possible. Oh, actually, very quickly, before I come to you, Simon, you're going to be happy

02:33:39.400 with this announcement, I'm sure, Ted. Let's bring in Dave from the newsroom here for a quick

02:33:46.560 update on the Senate. Yeah, it looks like Republicans have retaken the Senate. They have

02:33:55.620 flip seats in Ohio and West Virginia, and still Montana to come.

02:34:03.720 So Ohio wasn't on my list. So that's interesting. So

02:34:08.280 yeah, Sherrod Brown got defeated.

02:34:15.100 So it's, as it's looking right now, the Republicans are going to move from 49 seats in the Senate

02:34:21.240 up to 52, taking a clear majority. Simon, do you think with today's expected result in the Senate

02:34:32.300 that the Democrats still want to get rid of the filibuster? I imagine they'll be having a serious

02:34:39.320 think about it and probably come up with the exact opposite conclusion in a few days because

02:34:46.080 the filibuster is always the friend of the minority. And we'd heard that they were considering

02:34:51.620 Kamala Harris and Chuck Schumer getting rid of it for certain policies. But when you do it for a

02:34:59.560 few, why not do it for all? And that was really something that Republicans were afraid of if she

02:35:06.680 had won and they'd kept control of the Senate. So I expect that's pretty good news. I was in Ohio

02:35:11.520 a couple of weeks ago went to Springfield where you probably heard there's a large influx of

02:35:17.480 parolees and migrants of various kinds from Haiti. That was an issue there. And Bernie Moreno was

02:35:24.620 able to take that away from Sherrod Brown, who's been Senator forever, but has really voted pretty

02:35:31.560 far left. Do you think, conversely, I meant the first one being a bit of a jerk, as I like to 0.99

02:35:41.500 be, but do you think the Republicans will rethink their opposition to getting rid of the Senate 0.98

02:35:47.660 filibuster? Well, you know, I'm personally just speaking for myself. I hope not. I think it's

02:35:56.580 always a mistake to try to capitalize too much on a victory, because the other side always gets a

02:36:04.140 turn in the end. Now, there was talk of if the Democrats had a clean sweep that they could

02:36:10.340 introduce two new states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, which would give them four new

02:36:15.480 senators. They could get rid of the filibuster. They could try to get rid of the Electoral College 0.97

02:36:19.880 and sort of lock in a Democratic majority forever. But I think that kind of thinking

02:36:25.360 is very short term. What seems like a majority today can change tomorrow when populations,

02:36:32.580 you know, like working class white voters who used to vote for Democrats have moved to the

02:36:38.120 Republican Party, we're seeing increases in the black vote, the male vote, the Hispanic vote for

02:36:43.380 Republicans. So I think it's a short-sighted move to try to get rid of these protections

02:36:47.680 for minorities that have encouraged compromise and bipartisan legislation. Admittedly,

02:36:54.400 that's been very difficult for the past decade or so.

02:36:59.940 Nico, pull up the side screen, just on the side here. It doesn't have to be the whole screen.

02:37:04.020 But going to the New York Times here, I really hate giving credit to these guys.

02:37:09.880 But this is a good page that they've got running every year, the needle.

02:37:14.220 When you scroll down, you get the high level 89% chance of Trump, electoral college estimate, popular vote estimate.

02:37:21.900 But this is interesting right here, gentlemen.

02:37:24.480 This is what I want to look at.

02:37:27.460 Which state will decide the election?

02:37:29.300 And it's got the probability within each state.

02:37:32.620 Nevada, there really isn't enough data yet, but Nevada doesn't really matter.

02:37:37.900 It's just not, it doesn't have the numbers to move it one way or another, although Kamala Harris would need it.

02:37:45.300 Michigan, 87% likely going Republican.

02:37:51.960 Wisconsin, 69% likely going Republican.

02:37:56.760 Pennsylvania, 70% likely going Republican.

02:37:59.900 Arizona, 80% likely going Republican.

02:38:03.000 Georgia, more than 95% likely going Republican.

02:38:06.600 But let's focus on the three that we're sticking with this evening.

02:38:11.420 Class, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

02:38:16.060 The weakest of those for Trump is 67% likely for him.

02:38:19.880 The strongest of those is 70%.

02:38:21.640 And he's got three of them.

02:38:24.660 That is good odds.

02:38:26.120 And he's just got to win one.

02:38:28.000 That's it.

02:38:29.440 Yeah, if you multiply it out, you get quite a very high, strong percentage.

02:38:34.120 You know, I wonder if it's too early to even look at the question of whether the Democrats can take a joke.

02:38:40.680 They lose the House, they lose the Senate, they lose the presidency.

02:38:44.760 There was some very extreme language uttered by the presidential candidate for the Democrats in 2020.

02:38:53.760 Well, to be fair, there's been a lot of extreme language from every presidential candidate for several cycles.

02:39:00.900 Yeah, but she was speaking very favorably of the rioters and the people who were burning cities, and they should.

02:39:09.020 So how is this going to play out tomorrow morning if Trump does, in fact, win?

02:39:16.300 Ted, do you think it's going to be trouble?

02:39:19.680 In terms of an urban backlash in the cities that have had civil disorder in the past?

02:39:32.440 Yes.

02:39:32.940 In the recent past.

02:39:35.320 Yeah.

02:39:36.220 That's what I'm getting at.

02:39:39.200 I haven't given any thought to that yet.

02:39:43.300 My gut instinct is no, but I guess we'll wait and see.

02:39:48.720 Well, I mean, we've seen images of boarded up downtown cores in mostly Democratic cities for some time.

02:39:58.380 I mean, the Republican conservative types tend not to riot much.

02:40:03.700 I mean, there was the January 6th Capitol.

02:40:07.300 It was a noteworthy one, if they're going to.

02:40:08.860 It was noteworthy.

02:40:11.260 To the credit, it wasn't private property they destroyed.

02:40:13.640 I shouldn't make light of it, but it was a very notable exception.

02:40:20.840 But it tends to be much more frequently on the Democratic side.

02:40:25.360 But if, say this, if tonight would be leaning differently, again, it's not done,

02:40:31.320 but if it'd been leaning differently and Republicans have felt had been stolen from them,

02:40:34.580 I wouldn't put it beyond Trump supporters to get rowdy as well.

02:40:39.500 um what do you think son well unfortunately the days of you know 2000 where we had that really

02:40:50.060 close race between uh bush and gore and in the end uh gore decided to concede you know we didn't see

02:40:58.880 really any violence after that election um but there's just such antipathy now and the democrats

02:41:05.480 painted such a dark, dark picture, I would argue, a very unrealistic and unfair picture

02:41:12.260 of what a win by President Trump would mean for this country, you know, the death of democracy

02:41:17.800 and the bringing in of a, you know, regime that would rule with an iron fist forever.

02:41:23.140 I think some people probably have been persuaded by that, and I wouldn't be surprised if we

02:41:27.520 saw lawfare of an extraordinary degree, but we'll see lawsuits, you know, probably being

02:41:34.140 filed as we speak. And we may see an uptick in urban protests and some of it may end up breaking

02:41:42.300 windows and causing damage. But I really hope that we can be spared what we saw in the last

02:41:49.340 election and all the riots that happened in the aftermath of the George Floyd death and some other

02:41:56.380 instances in the past four years that have been really unfortunate for our country.

02:41:59.660 Is there anything in the Constitution that prevents a convicted felon from being

02:42:06.380 elected president, taking office?

02:42:11.100 Don't get me started on the convicted felon label, which they have tried so, so hard to make stick.

02:42:16.540 I really think most Americans understand that whether you like Trump or not,

02:42:21.740 and whether or not you think he's done or said things that he shouldn't have,

02:42:24.780 have, the cases that were brought against him, with perhaps half of one exception, were

02:42:31.540 just simply lawfare, to put it bluntly, and those felonies were essentially misdemeanors

02:42:39.200 that were statute of limitations barred, that were resurrected by some obscure reference

02:42:45.900 to a federal law which New York State couldn't even enforce.

02:42:49.720 As far as I know, there is nothing in the Constitution that bars someone with a conviction from running and winning the presidency.

02:42:59.200 But don't quote me on that.

02:43:00.180 I'll have to look it up.

02:43:01.320 So I have a question I want to put to whoever wants to pick it up.

02:43:06.020 It could be Ted, Simon, Nigel, Corey, even Nico running the show tonight.

02:43:13.140 Actually, I would just take a moment, actually, to thank our broadcast editor, Nico,

02:43:17.940 who I think has done a fantastic job making this run smoothly.

02:43:22.540 Corey, you were around four years ago when we did this.

02:43:25.860 Oh, God.

02:43:27.100 Come along here.

02:43:27.560 iPhone duct taped to a broomstick.

02:43:32.860 But, yeah, I just want to thank Nico for doing a fantastic job as our broadcast editor tonight.

02:43:37.420 Okay, so I've got a question I would just put to everyone on the line here.

02:43:40.840 And actually, those of you, there's a lot of people chiming in in the comments section.

02:43:47.020 I am watching you.

02:43:48.260 I'm not as good at Corey about acknowledging it because I don't do live shows often like Corey.

02:43:53.980 But we want to hear from you, too. 0.99

02:43:57.280 Is Joe Biden secretly got a shit-eating grin on his face tonight? 0.99

02:44:03.600 is Joe Biden, is he kind of smirking, thinking like, you know, you guys stole my second term, 1.00

02:44:13.600 you stole my presidency. People within the Democratic Party, I'm not very conspiracy

02:44:20.040 prone, but people in his inner circle clearly put him up to an extra, extra, extra early debate

02:44:27.740 that they knew he would completely crap his pants in, and it would incinerate his candidacy

02:44:35.460 so they could switch the Democratic nominee without a Democratic nomination in primaries. 0.64

02:44:41.800 They took it from him.

02:44:44.000 Now, I think Joe Biden would have gone down to an even greater defeat than Harris is likely to go down to tonight.

02:44:51.740 But in Biden's mind, maybe he thinks he could have still done it.

02:44:54.900 uh so i i want to get you know hear from whoever wants to pick this one up is biden grinning

02:45:02.980 thinking i could have done better i'm happy that the guys who stole this from me are going down

02:45:07.040 or is he thinking this is going to trash my legacy and this is the end of democracy in america

02:45:14.520 i don't think he has much to grin about i i don't i i think he's cognizant enough to know that he

02:45:21.900 probably wouldn't have pulled it off either and he's not going to take satisfaction in knowing

02:45:25.360 that harris didn't uh i don't think he thinks the world's ending either i guess i i don't know i

02:45:29.920 think perhaps we're reading a little much i mean the fact that he was yanked out and such there

02:45:34.200 was definitely some stuff going on but uh i i think he's still just as a dedicated he's certainly

02:45:39.860 been a partisan man for a long long time he would have preferred to see a democrat win even if it

02:45:44.140 was even if it was harris might be i'd be interested to hear the view from the united states

02:45:50.020 I think the bigger paradox is Trump would have crushed Biden, just crushed him.

02:46:02.260 And the irony of all this is, I guess I disagree that the debate was pushed on Biden by an inside Democratic conspiracy.

02:46:13.920 I think Biden's, again, his own self, sort of very delusional view of his own abilities.

02:46:20.900 I think he got tired of being challenged by Trump, so he stepped up and did the debate.

02:46:25.620 And ironically, that debate, of course, then destroyed him.

02:46:33.780 But it also, in retrospect, it potentially could have hurt Trump very badly, too,

02:46:41.420 because Trump would have won easily against Biden, as we'll see what happens later tonight.

02:46:47.040 But Harris ended up being a much bigger challenge to Trump than Biden would have been.

02:46:55.820 Well, I certainly think so.

02:46:58.100 Actually, Simon, if you want to maybe pick up on my original question about what's Biden thinking,

02:47:04.220 But also, if you care to retroactively prognosticate, if that's a thing, about how Biden, how do you think Biden would have would have fared tonight relative to Harris?

02:47:20.400 No, I think Ted's right. I think Biden would have gone down in flames because his cognitive

02:47:27.480 decline would have just been so obvious. We've seen him out in front of the cameras a few times

02:47:32.580 in the past couple of weeks. Obviously, Harris wanted him out of sight because he was always a

02:47:38.720 gaffe machine in his entire career, even when he was fully with it. But now the gaffes are coming

02:47:43.660 thick and fast, and I don't think he's really aware of making them. I think this is a story

02:47:50.520 of really hubris that, you know, Joe Biden, a man who had run for president several times and really

02:47:57.460 had never had a shot, was only able to win it in 2020 because he ran a basement campaign during

02:48:03.580 COVID and was going up against a man who was, while very popular with a minority of the country,

02:48:09.480 extremely unpopular with an equally large minority, and Biden was able to attract enough

02:48:15.320 swing votes to squeak a win. But then they put up Kamala Harris, who just frankly is not a good 1.00

02:48:22.560 candidate. I mean, she has never really won a contested race in her life. She is pretty far

02:48:28.540 to the left of even the Democratic Party, you know, an Oakland, San Francisco, ultra-progressive

02:48:36.220 with views that are just not compatible with mainstream America. And much as she tried to

02:48:41.800 hide those views, I think they must have known the people, the James Carvilles, you know, I call them

02:48:46.800 the old dogs of the party, they must have known that she was just not the candidate to run against

02:48:52.500 Trump. And if they had run somebody else other than those two, they probably would have had a

02:48:57.900 really good chance of winning. But the hubris in just assuming that the American people would

02:49:03.300 swallow whoever they chose to put up against Trump just because they hated him so much

02:49:07.420 was their downfall. I would agree. I would agree with that. She never, if there'd been a normal

02:49:16.940 democratic primary process that started back in January, February, March, she never would have 1.00

02:49:22.900 won it. And whoever would have won it would have had a better chance against Trump. She has,

02:49:29.580 the more people see of her the the less the less they like her i have to think that to

02:49:36.400 derek's question about what biden is thinking right now it's really a question does did he

02:49:42.660 dislike trump more than he dislikes harris and my bet would he probably did you heard the

02:49:50.760 the garbage comment a week ago um how many votes that cost kamala harris who knows 1.00

02:49:58.320 But that was the bitterness that you sometimes see come out of Joe Biden. 0.98

02:50:06.580 I suspect that he would rather have had, that he will not take any satisfaction from Donald Trump beating the usurper from within his own party.

02:50:26.780 I think he'll be sad about it.

02:50:31.280 Yeah, I think it'll be more of an I told you so than anything else.

02:50:34.720 But as you say, it won't give him great satisfaction because in the end, his team lost.

02:50:39.500 Right.

02:50:40.080 Assuming that's what happens.

02:50:41.980 I know we're not there yet, but going by the New York Times prediction anyway.

02:50:49.400 That was good.

02:50:50.060 um uh let's uh actually you know who i know wants to get back in to this uh conversation

02:50:57.320 is western standards uh stampede food critic uh josh andrus uh josh um uh you know while we're

02:51:08.660 chatting here let's let's bring up the map nico um yeah i actually want to talk about the map

02:51:15.900 i'm glad you brought it up i'm the map um arizona i have been watching very closely

02:51:24.940 maricopa county which is where there was a lot of uh we'll call them conversations during the

02:51:32.940 2020 election hasn't been reporting uh that is the seat of phoenix our phoenix would be the seat

02:51:40.700 of maricopa county that is at 50.7 percent with the total of over a million point 1.1 million

02:51:50.220 votes that's by far the largest county so i'm not as confident as everybody else on arizona

02:51:56.780 well um yet well just before you go on there uh i want to show you this um

02:52:03.100 Um, the, uh, yeah, so there are 52% of estimated votes coming in from, uh, Arizona.

02:52:11.540 Trump has a razor thin lead, but it's only 53%, but he has a razor thin lead.

02:52:16.880 49.79% to 49.41%, roughly, uh, just about 7,000 votes separating the two candidates.

02:52:27.360 But let's look at this. The New York Times is saying Arizona still has an 80% chance of going Republican. It has a better chance of going Republican than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan, all of which are leaning fairly heavily Republican at this point.

02:52:47.220 uh are you yeah are you telling me josh that you you think arizona's in play because the

02:52:55.300 the democrats yeah i just i've got a bad or sorry i've got a bad feeling like just based on last

02:53:02.220 time i seem to remember going to bed thinking that we had arizona and waking up in the morning

02:53:06.460 and seeing that we didn't or not we the republicans so that's something that i've been watching

02:53:12.420 yeah and then pennsylvania is the other one uh the philadelphia county delaware county

02:53:23.300 montgomery county and bucks county all around there those report those numbers are trickling

02:53:30.480 in too so i i understand why they haven't called the election yet or and i would hesitate to go

02:53:39.480 there myself but it's it's looking pretty good like georgia should go oh well okay so i'll

02:53:49.980 probe the new york times here georgia the new york times uh democrat paper extraordinaire

02:53:56.740 saying it's a greater than 95 percent georgia uh georgia was i could be wrong but that may

02:54:03.900 been the closest state on a percentage level uh maybe maybe even in uh in raw vote total popular

02:54:11.340 vote total in the last election that was that was razor razor razor thin last time uh they're

02:54:18.680 calling that pretty solidly for trump right now let's just let's yeah and i think that's like

02:54:24.140 fulton county which is the seat of atlanta heavy democrat uh support that comes in there at 91

02:54:30.940 percent expected to uh vote uh reporting that's the wall street journals got that that was the

02:54:37.840 writing that caused some frustration in georgia so there's not much expected to come in from that

02:54:46.560 county itself so hopefully i think georgia hold yeah you're just solid unless there's something

02:54:52.960 crazy in the mail-in ballots but i just again i want like maricopa county i don't think

02:55:00.920 gets moved in an hour. No, no. Maricopa County was reporting today. They could take up to like

02:55:09.640 almost two weeks to counter or something crazy. I am not, I know some of our viewers are not going

02:55:19.720 to agree with me on this one. I'm not a believer that the last election was stolen. I think it was

02:55:25.740 some funny business here and there but probably not to move it but there is something funny with

02:55:31.380 maricopa county like and i'm not saying it's even untoward i'm saying do they not know how to count

02:55:37.540 do they not do math so good in maricopa county what what's the issue um

02:55:44.660 uh maybe i'll put this also yeah go ahead uh maybe put this question to uh to both ted simon

02:55:53.420 If you want to chime in. You know, I think there was a, you know, I really hate this term denialism.

02:56:02.720 It's kind of comparing it to the Holocaust or something. I think it's a term in poor taste.

02:56:07.300 But let's say folks willing to dispute the election even after it's been done, settled in the courts.

02:56:16.220 Yeah, that was fairly prominent among a lot of Republican and Trump supporters in 2020.

02:56:21.360 But there was a lot of that by Democrats in Clinton's quarter in 2016, where they claimed it wasn't fair and Putin swayed the election. And then you go back to Bush-Gore 2000, claiming that that election was stolen too.

02:56:38.620 I mean, if it's decisive tonight, I don't expect Democrats to contest the legitimacy of it, at least that hard.

02:56:50.080 But I'll put it to either of our two U.S. citizens on the panel.

02:56:56.820 If tonight continues going the way it very much looks like it is, do you expect much in the way of, to use the Democrats' term, election denialism?

02:57:08.620 I'll let Simon go first.

02:57:13.000 I really hope not.

02:57:15.320 I'm sure there will be all kinds of recriminations and legal challenges.

02:57:22.080 But I guess it kind of depends on where the counts are the most delayed.

02:57:27.460 I still don't understand why there are certain counties that can get it all done in certain states in record time.

02:57:35.900 And there are others where it drags on for weeks.

02:57:37.460 I know there are different rules about mail-in ballots and such.

02:57:40.580 But, you know, if I were running Maricopa County, I would, after the last election, have made a huge effort to make sure that my operation was running like a well-oiled machine so that it instills some confidence in the next results.

02:57:54.440 But I think it would be a terrible dynamic to get into where after each election, you know, we just started trying to undo it and pick apart the voting machines and the system itself.

02:58:06.180 We have to have confidence in the system. And, you know, we saw what happened in Venezuela not so long ago when they had an election and the probable losing party just said, yeah, it never happened.

02:58:18.580 And I know that's a long, long way down the road, but I don't think we should go even an inch further down that path.

02:58:26.540 Ted, you can't wiggle off this question anymore.

02:58:28.440 well i i certainly agree i i hope the democrats wouldn't do it but i think they'd have trouble

02:58:36.600 doing it because the hypocrisy that's been one of their biggest uh biggest uh crusades against trump

02:58:44.600 is his denialism for so for them to turn around and play the game that they've been criticizing

02:58:49.800 the hypocrisy of that would i think a little bit hard to sustain

02:58:54.440 I think they'd lack credibility.

02:59:00.600 Nico, let's bring up the – oh, geez, what did I do here?

02:59:07.320 Does Nico have any updates on Senate elections?

02:59:11.560 Yeah, we'll go to the Senate in just a moment. I just want to give us an update from

02:59:15.240 the New York Times. Let's get this up. The New York Times live presidential forecast has bumped

02:59:23.720 Trump up to a 91% chance of victory. You know, you like this when it's going your way. You don't

02:59:34.140 like it when it's not. You know, I remember watching U.S. presidential elections. My views

02:59:40.120 have changed around some of this stuff. Like John McCain, there's a lot of policies I don't like

02:59:45.860 about the man, but I really liked the man. I thought John McCain was just the classiest guy.

02:59:51.220 um and i know some of you are not close john uh uh mint romney mint romney is well to the left i

02:59:58.740 think of a lot of my own views but i think just a a classy guy and yet you hate to see it going

03:00:03.620 but when you know when the night's going badly for you when you don't have some friggin thing oh

03:00:11.060 actually just take back to 89 okay uh so a little hope for the democrats they're down trump's only

03:00:16.900 at 89% now. You know, you're able to do some wild math in your head. If I win this and this and this

03:00:25.040 and this, there's a path to victory. This is really just kind of math, and it's pretty solid,

03:00:32.880 at least once the votes come in. The New York Times election prediction, election predictor is

03:00:37.220 a lot less reliable before the results come in, but it's a pretty useful tool.

03:00:42.820 um okay so uh uh ted you asked about the senate and the senate you shall have uh just give me a

03:00:52.740 moment here okay so uh here's where we're at uh actually look at election a little better for the

03:01:01.220 democrats um we were looking at 52 republicans before um oh actually no this let's look look at

03:01:09.440 a forecast here okay yeah 52 republican to 48 democrats uh i've got uh in arizona reuben galago

03:01:20.860 uh is beating carrie lake it looks like uh carrie uh for uh all the sorry uh democrat

03:01:29.400 the democrats who held the seat before through that was chris cinema's seat um they appear to

03:01:37.480 be holding on to the lead as right now again early uh window against the republican senate

03:01:45.180 candidate carrie lake who ran for governor um in 2020 she is underperforming trump by a few points

03:01:53.640 in pennsylvania the senate race has republican mccormick uh with a slim lead against the

03:02:02.160 Democrat. Casey, I believe that is a Democrat seat.

03:02:06.780 It is. That's right. That's right. McCormick's the Republican challenger.

03:02:11.460 And that's another one where Trump appears to be outperforming the candidate by about 2% there. So

03:02:19.460 again, the president coming in stronger there. Michigan, we've got Rogers, Republican over

03:02:26.920 slotkin democrat 50.2 to 47 percent with 44 percent expected total reporting again this is

03:02:36.380 wall street journal wisconsin of the republican 50 to 47 percent over the democrat baldwin

03:02:44.980 so yeah um i'd have to double check but it looks like in a few of those races trump

03:02:51.700 Wisconsin is outperforming the ticket, which is somewhat interesting.

03:02:59.980 Wisconsin, yeah, it looks like he's outperforming the Senate tickets in a few of these spots.

03:03:05.360 So that's not something I was actually expecting to see.

03:03:09.720 So I want to go to Ted and Simon in just a moment.

03:03:12.520 But before I do that, I want to just show everyone this map of the House race, the House of Representatives.

03:03:19.700 That's obviously a messier map, but just look at the top of it.

03:03:24.680 So right now, Democrats are called or leaning in 210, Republicans in 207.

03:03:35.040 I'd be surprised if the Republicans don't still edge out a majority here,

03:03:39.800 considering they already had it.

03:03:40.840 it'd be very odd for uh you know 10 and 7 you know uh you know this stuff better than uh than

03:03:48.760 i would but you know when the president presidency switches parties the house and at least to some

03:03:57.080 extent the senate but the senate only turns off a third of the time as you know uh but at least

03:04:01.880 the house gets selected all at once comes with the president they might lose it in the midterms but

03:04:06.820 it'd be very weird for the Republicans to hold the House going in and then to lose the House

03:04:12.600 as the leader on the top of their ticket comes in. So maybe you could speak to that. But also

03:04:21.020 at the same time, I think Canadians need to know about the concept of the split ticket.

03:04:27.320 it's not something we have

03:04:29.280 your vote, no one actually

03:04:31.280 vote

03:04:31.540 1 in 338

03:04:35.720 roughly Canadians

03:04:37.060 actually get to vote for the Prime Minister

03:04:38.820 in their actual seat, no one actually

03:04:41.380 votes, technically MPs vote for

03:04:43.380 Prime Minister, technically

03:04:44.680 technically, but essentially

03:04:47.280 no one actually votes for Prime Minister, you vote for an MP

03:04:49.380 you vote for that person

03:04:51.460 that party, and that's it

03:04:53.100 but, you know, you get

03:04:55.240 some Americans

03:04:56.840 you know uh i'm kind of a republican leaning but i don't like donald trump's temperament so

03:05:04.420 i'm gonna vote kamala harris but down the ticket for you know for senate for house uh for governor 1.00

03:05:11.140 for dog catcher i'm voting republican um that's a is it possible that that same impact may have

03:05:19.320 been a drag on kamala that kamala might be drag like might be hurting them in the president's race 1.00

03:05:26.040 whereas the party, the general public views the rest of the party is more moderate.

03:05:31.880 Maybe that is what we're seeing here.

03:05:34.100 I don't know.

03:05:34.460 I could be wrong.

03:05:35.620 Yeah.

03:05:36.520 So Simon or Ted, I'll put it to either of you.

03:05:39.580 If you can comment on how you think the House race is going to shape up

03:05:44.440 as we're looking like a likely Trump win tonight.

03:05:49.820 But at the same time, just kind of both your explainer and your thoughts

03:05:54.680 to Canadians about the idea of a split ticket

03:05:59.520 for whom that is a very, very foreign idea.

03:06:05.300 Ted, go ahead.

03:06:07.460 I'll pass on the House, but on the Senate,

03:06:10.960 the three races that Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania

03:06:15.880 with the Republicans slightly doing worse than Trump,

03:06:21.540 It could be the opposite of what I predicted was going to happen is that there were going to be a lot of people in the middle voting Harris for presidency and then using their Senate and their House votes to create a check on Harris by voting Republican.

03:06:39.380 And maybe the opposite. I see I appear to have been wrong in thinking that Harris was going to enjoy some sort of last minute surge, but that her supporters were then going to vote Republican on the Senate and House seats.

03:06:54.440 Maybe the opposite. Maybe the opposite is happening here. But as far as the split ticket voting goes, I did a little bit of research.

03:07:03.020 By my account, five of the last 11 presidential elections, the party that won the presidency had lost both houses.

03:07:16.060 So it's not uncommon for Americans to kind of split their ticket, hedge their votes and say, well, we're going to go with this party for the presidency, but we don't really like him or her that much.

03:07:26.860 So we're going to vote for the other party in this House and the Senate.

03:07:31.160 That's true.

03:07:31.840 Maybe that's happening here tonight.

03:07:34.600 Well, that's true.

03:07:36.220 But what I'm saying is I don't have a ton of – I don't have the data at my fingertips because I'm in the middle of this.

03:07:42.840 But what seems uncommon to me is that the Republicans already held the House and stand possibly to lose seats.

03:07:51.380 Maybe they don't lose control of the House, but they stand to lose seats in the House.

03:07:56.620 I mean, say the Democrats already had the House and Trump wins and the Democrats keep the House.

03:08:01.420 That's not entirely uncommon that there's a split ticket there, but for a new party to come into the White House, but then to lose the House of Representatives, that would probably be a little less common.

03:08:14.500 It's happened five of the last 11 elections.

03:08:19.000 Well, my theory is obviously not too good.

03:08:24.320 That's why we have some people living in America on the panel.

03:08:31.420 Well, just my two cents on this, and I'm not as much of an expert as probably all of you on the mechanics of it.

03:08:40.520 And there are people who make a living studying exactly how the House gets elected every year.

03:08:46.600 And I know my friend, John Holzman, who makes predictions and actually seems to be getting this one right.

03:08:52.420 The House was the hardest one for him to call. But I would just say a little local perspective is that sometimes these are these are well-known names.

03:09:01.420 And they're people who are well-liked, even if maybe their party isn't as well-liked.

03:09:07.780 So it can really come down to all politics is local rather than some kind of strategic decision to split the ticket, you know, to balance the power.

03:09:16.400 And it can really, therefore, be pretty random year to year or election to election every two years as to what characters, what people you have running.

03:09:25.280 And we see that in the Senate with these people like Manchin and Tester and Sherrod Brown, who had survived forever, largely on name recognition rather than voting record.

03:09:39.880 And maybe that's true in the House, although I don't know the personalities.

03:09:44.440 Well, just where Ted's sitting in Montana, Montana is a pretty deep red state looking right now.

03:09:51.220 Trump is leading 63.4 to Harris, 33.7.

03:09:57.760 It's a deep red state.

03:09:59.320 I mean, geez, RFK is at 2% there, and he's well out of the race.

03:10:06.200 It's a deep red state, but it has one of its two senators is a Democrat.

03:10:11.840 And now that Democrat has gone down to defeat tonight.

03:10:17.540 He's not defeated yet, but it looks like he's going to be defeated.

03:10:20.740 Yeah, yeah. Very likely going down to defeat. But like, I mean, this is the equivalent of someone, let's say, under the Liberal Party of Canada banner getting elected in Brooks or Drumheller or Rocky Mountain House.

03:10:36.120 it's we don't do that in canada uh but i think that's that might be largely a product at least

03:10:43.920 to some extent of the u.s primary system where local people actually pick their candidate it's

03:10:48.500 a lot less hand selected by the national i know i i know uh there is you know the rnc and the dnc

03:10:55.020 have got their dirty hands in these things but you know there's a lot more independence to

03:10:59.840 actually select your own candidate they can be a rogue on the right like ron paul they can be a

03:11:04.260 Rogo on the left, like Bernie Sanders, but also the ability to select moderates who can actually

03:11:10.020 win in areas where that party is otherwise weak. It's just something that wouldn't happen in

03:11:18.520 Canada. You know, you get like a fairly conservative. It doesn't happen. It doesn't

03:11:23.720 happen in part, though, because if you want whoever you want for to be the prime minister

03:11:28.780 or the premier, you have to vote the party line to get that result. In the U.S., with the division

03:11:35.800 between the executive vote and the legislative vote, you can hedge your bets. You can do one of

03:11:42.040 each. Yeah. Okay. Well, let's check in with our newsroom, news editor, Dave Naylor. I see him

03:11:52.040 scrolling away furiously in the newsroom. I haven't seen too much here, but I think we've

03:11:58.140 So we'll check in with Dave right now.

03:12:02.760 Not a lot new tonight at the moment, Derek.

03:12:05.380 I can give you a quick run through.

03:12:07.260 Interestingly, I've just seen a report that the United States Secret Service is going to be mobilizing a lot more agents heading down to Florida overnight.

03:12:15.900 So I think they're obviously putting their bets in on it.

03:12:22.000 Arizona, we currently have still 55%.

03:12:24.800 What is wrong with those people?

03:12:26.420 Nevada hasn't even started counting.

03:12:28.400 They obviously went to the B.C. School of Election Voting, counting.

03:12:36.760 Wisconsin, we're now up to 79%.

03:12:40.360 It's 51.1% for Trump, 47.4% for Harris,

03:12:47.020 and it's about just under 100,000 vote lead for Trump at the moment.

03:12:54.020 Pennsylvania.

03:12:55.220 Nico, let's forget the map.

03:12:56.420 In Pennsylvania, we got 50.9% for Trump, 48.2% for Harris, and that's with 84 polls reporting.

03:13:13.480 So that's about 100 and, I can't do math, call it 130,000 lead, something like that.

03:13:22.180 Don't quote me on that.

03:13:23.400 Yeah. And just to Pennsylvania, look in here. New York Times says there's a 75 percent chance Trump takes Pennsylvania.

03:13:32.700 Yeah, Michigan now with 54% still.

03:13:42.760 So that really hasn't changed.

03:13:44.120 It's 50.1% for Trump, 48% for Harris, 60,000 vote lead for Trump.

03:13:54.260 So he's leading where he needs to at the moment, Derek, to reclaim the White House.

03:13:59.920 All right.

03:14:00.900 thank you very much uh Nigel you say uh we've got Brian Lee Crowley back here we can just

03:14:10.360 takes a quick um a message okay uh yeah let's uh let's get uh Brian Lee Crowley back all right

03:14:16.700 uh Simon and uh Ted we've had you both uh for a long time uh which of you wants to go to bed first

03:14:24.020 i'm happy to sign off and talk to you tomorrow

03:14:30.760 uh actually yeah no i think that'd be a great a great idea for uh for one of us uh uh cory who

03:14:37.360 have you got on your show tomorrow uh i've got elise mills about what to talk about the american

03:14:43.160 election results okay okay yeah uh coming well uh yeah ted uh we very much appreciate your time

03:14:48.880 and your insights, that's

03:14:50.680 fantastic.

03:14:52.900 You have to take me jackalope

03:14:54.940 hunting sometime. Those are quite the

03:14:56.920 trophies you got. I'll introduce you to

03:14:58.940 my friends, yes.

03:15:01.340 They're fellow

03:15:02.740 Albertans.

03:15:04.880 Amen. Sounds good.

03:15:06.780 All right. Thank you very much. That's Ted

03:15:08.760 Morton, former Finance Minister of Alberta

03:15:10.740 and a dual

03:15:12.520 U.S.-Alberta citizen.

03:15:16.140 We're going to be

03:15:17.040 bringing Brian Lee Crowley back

03:15:19.060 into the mix. Those of you who were not with

03:15:21.120 us at the beginning

03:15:23.120 of the show, we had Brian at the top of the show.

03:15:25.020 Brian is a very

03:15:26.980 smart guy. Oh, no, we don't

03:15:29.000 have him yet. Nigel will let

03:15:31.020 me know when we've got Brian Lee

03:15:32.980 Crowley. We've probably seen him before.

03:15:34.600 I've got that camera in my way.

03:15:36.160 Oh, anyway.

03:15:38.340 All right. Well, let's

03:15:40.580 look

03:15:43.020 at

03:15:43.640 Let's bring up the map here.

03:15:52.180 Have we got the map?

03:15:53.020 Or did I kill the map?

03:15:54.340 Did I screw up the map?

03:15:58.360 I probably screw up the map.

03:16:00.740 Okay, there we go.

03:16:01.940 Let's bring up this map.

03:16:05.400 All right, I want to run through the math here.

03:16:08.200 Nevada is as likely out of play.

03:16:16.800 Thank God, because they don't like to actually count the ballots.

03:16:19.460 They just like to sit around and do whatever they do in Nevada.

03:16:24.060 They're gambling with America's future.

03:16:26.380 Gambling.

03:16:27.660 Okay.

03:16:29.120 So here's the numbers.

03:16:31.580 A candidate needs 270 electoral college votes to win.

03:16:38.200 Trump has 242 and another 20 leaning his way, so he is sitting at 262 likely electoral votes.

03:16:50.500 Kamala Harris has 192 confirmed electoral college votes and has another 34 leading her way for 226. 0.99

03:16:59.060 So 226 for Harris versus 262 for Trump.

03:17:04.320 Trump needs eight more.

03:17:08.320 Not a lot.

03:17:09.100 That's why Nevada doesn't matter. 0.88

03:17:10.580 Sorry, Nevada.

03:17:11.640 Nevada is six.

03:17:13.040 That's not enough for Trump.

03:17:14.640 But for Harris to win, there's a good chance she would probably need to carry it.

03:17:18.860 Probably.

03:17:19.420 Not guaranteed, but probably.

03:17:20.700 That means you see that beige kind of pukey number, a color at the top with 50.

03:17:28.140 That is the toss-up states that's left. 0.57

03:17:30.800 And Trump is damn, damn close to getting there.

03:17:36.000 He just needs eight more.

03:17:37.660 So that's why I want you to look at these Rust Belt states at the top.

03:17:41.900 Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

03:17:45.900 Formerly known as the Blue Wall.

03:17:48.400 Maybe still called the Blue Wall, but you smash that wall, you beat the Blues, essentially.

03:17:52.860 I'm not sure where the Red Wall is, but you...

03:17:55.260 I see. It was right down across the middle.

03:17:59.000 Diagonal.

03:17:59.400 There you are.

03:18:00.620 Oh, jeez.

03:18:01.740 Oh, God.

03:18:02.940 All right.

03:18:05.000 So we've got Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

03:18:09.460 Trump just needs one of those three states.

03:18:15.320 Let's start with the smallest of the blue wall, Wisconsin.

03:18:20.700 Oh, that's not what I meant to do.

03:18:23.420 Wisconsin.

03:18:23.980 So Wisconsin, right now, Trump is leading 51.2% over Harris, 47.4%, 80% of estimated polls reporting.

03:18:38.540 Now, according to the New York Times, Wisconsin has a 74% chance of going Trump-Republican.

03:18:48.620 So Wisconsin's probably going Republican.

03:18:53.600 Let's put it this way.

03:18:54.340 If you were Harris, you would be pretty forlorn about that.

03:18:58.140 It's not good.

03:18:59.080 80% of the polls in, 47% to 53%.

03:19:04.100 That's the smallest of the blue wall states.

03:19:06.720 Much time to make up.

03:19:08.080 That's the smallest of the blue wall states,

03:19:09.780 and it's got two more electoral votes on its own than Trump even needs to win.

03:19:14.980 The next, the middle size of the blue wall states, Michigan.

03:19:19.460 Michigan. Let's look at Michigan. Michigan is leading Trump again. 55% of estimated polls

03:19:31.720 reporting 50.3% for Trump, 47.8% for Kamala Harris. Well more than enough votes on its own

03:19:41.920 for Trump to win the presidency.

03:19:46.500 According to the New York Times,

03:19:48.880 Michigan has a 67% chance of going Trump Republican.

03:19:55.460 It's probably going to go.

03:19:57.680 It's not for sure.

03:19:58.500 It's probably going.

03:20:00.000 The big one, and this is the one I've pinned my whole theory on,

03:20:03.680 but at this point, Trump actually doesn't need to win Pennsylvania.

03:20:07.920 He just needs to win one of the three.

03:20:09.960 Just one of the three.

03:20:11.500 So Pennsylvania, let's look at.

03:20:16.940 So which is the state with 20 leaning that way?

03:20:21.680 Because he does need that one, according to the way.

03:20:24.220 There's no state with 20.

03:20:25.640 No, it's 242 and 20 electoral college votes in one state.

03:20:30.940 Pennsylvania is 19.

03:20:32.120 19.

03:20:32.840 You're always off by one.

03:20:33.940 242, 262.

03:20:35.380 We were talking about that earlier.

03:20:36.740 So, uh, so if, uh, Trump leaning state. Yeah. Oh, I think, uh, we're going to get our map back up

03:20:45.120 here. It's still, uh, I just worry about getting premature. There's 600,000 votes outstanding in

03:20:52.200 Pennsylvania and they're only a hundred thousand apart. Yeah. These things can change. Okay. We

03:20:56.260 got the map back up here. Pennsylvania, 85% estimated reporting. 85% is a lot. I mean,

03:21:03.480 within this, it could definitely, it could move. It could move. It depends on where they're coming

03:21:07.540 from. That's the, exactly. Trump is leading all three blue wall states, 50.8% Trump, 48.2 Kamala

03:21:16.860 Harris. Uh, New York times Democrats of Democrats say there is a 78% chance Trump is winning

03:21:27.260 Pennsylvania. So what this, what this comes down to now, let me pull up this one here from the New

03:21:33.440 York Times. These three states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, 66%,

03:21:42.260 Wisconsin, 75%, Pennsylvania, 78%. Trump just needs one. Just one. That's it. Yep. And he wins.

03:21:54.340 And it's over.

03:21:57.000 I think that's a good time to bring in David Knight-Legg from Edmonton.

03:22:05.260 Yes, not an American, but a man who knows many Americans.

03:22:11.280 In fact, tonight feels like a more intellectual version of talking to Americans.

03:22:16.500 Here we go.

03:22:17.540 For all the millennials and Gen X's and boomers who remember talking to Americans, it was a much more intellectual exercise than that tonight.

03:22:28.040 But David Knightleg has been a senior member in the Alberta government, and I don't know how to describe you otherwise, other as an international businessman of mystery.

03:22:39.420 There we go. That's a good description.

03:22:41.460 Put that on your business card.

03:22:43.420 David, also a columnist for the Western Standard,

03:22:47.620 writes some absolutely fantastic stuff,

03:22:49.880 including just a lot of stuff about the American election.

03:22:52.700 You've actually paid more attention to this, I think,

03:22:54.500 than anyone else at the Standard.

03:22:56.060 You've been just neck deep in it.

03:22:59.600 Do you see any plausible path to victory for Kamala Harris at this point?

03:23:07.760 You know, that's a great question.

03:23:09.120 I've been debating some friends of mine in the States.

03:23:10.820 I went aggressive a week ago and I said, I think Trump could actually win all of the swing states and with 312 electoral votes.

03:23:22.760 We'll see if that happens. But he's on track for it right now.

03:23:25.660 I think also watch the Senate. The Republicans have already got a majority in the Senate.

03:23:31.660 I think they could end up with 54 seats. 54.

03:23:34.660 Yeah, I think there's some there. There are some very close races right now.

03:23:39.360 Moreno just beat Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Sheehy will definitely win, win Montana.

03:23:46.880 So, you know, it's just I think it's the Republican sweep. I think they'll also win the House.

03:23:51.520 You know, the House would be very close. But I think that, you know, I said, you know, being

03:23:56.240 aggressive, 312 electoral seats for the White House, 54 up to between 52 and 54 seats in the

03:24:03.360 senate but definitely a senate majority and uh 220 to 224 seats in the house so i think uh the next

03:24:11.360 president will be donald trump but i think he's going to go in with um a complete sweep and

03:24:17.440 you're going to have two years of a very strong uh agenda and the the most interesting thing is

03:24:23.440 i've sort of written about for the standard about this election was early on in the election the

03:24:29.920 The Democrats decided when they appointed Harris that they would try and do everything they could.

03:24:35.340 They were hugely funded, three times the, you know, treasury of the Trump campaign to make it a litigation on Donald Trump.

03:24:45.040 And they were prosecuting that pretty successfully until he made this very unusual strategic turn and made it a unity ticket.

03:24:53.080 And suddenly they found themselves needing to litigate RFK Jr., who's very appealing to suburban women. 0.57

03:24:59.220 They were litigating Nicole Shanahan, his running mate, who's very appealing to women in tech, and they were very focused on the health agenda, which appeals to independents.

03:25:10.380 They ended up needing to litigate against Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tulsi Gabbard, most recently Ron Paul.

03:25:18.600 And I think what happened is the attempt to make this election a referendum on Donald Trump instead of a referendum on the Biden-Harris years meant that they were unable to actually respond to the unity ticket strategy very effectively.

03:25:33.680 and you saw this especially with the dominant dominance of podcasts and the most unbelievable

03:25:38.740 example of that was the movement in the poll being up six points with young men under the age of 30

03:25:47.120 at the very beginning of uh september to being down by five points and 11 points shift in that

03:25:55.780 uh young male cohort by the end of october and you can attribute i believe almost all that to

03:26:01.860 the effectiveness of podcasts, but also the attractiveness in that cohort of some of the

03:26:06.540 members of this unity team. Very similar thing happened with women. So I think what you're

03:26:10.680 seeing in some of these swing states, they get decided, you know, keep in mind, Biden only won

03:26:17.160 last, you know, in 2020 by less than 45,000 votes across three swing states,

03:26:24.400 finding ballots, counting them through the night for a couple of days, right? This is extremely

03:26:29.240 close. Trump won because he won Michigan by 11,000 votes back in 2016. So I think that what

03:26:37.180 happened was that Trump completely outplayed the Harris campaign in spite of their advantages on

03:26:42.720 money. And in spite of, you know, prosecuting Trump's an easy thing to do, especially when

03:26:47.540 you have the mainstream media. But if you can't control the podcast, which is the new media,

03:26:51.700 which we're on right now, you don't have the intention. And I think that's what we're seeing

03:26:57.200 So a couple of things to follow up on there, David. One of them you were explaining recently

03:27:03.520 to me how every presidential campaign seems to have gone to the president who managed to

03:27:12.240 get the new medium first. Could you lay that out for the viewers?

03:27:19.360 Sure. Well, the most famous example of that, I mean, it started with FDR's dominance in radio.

03:27:27.200 back in the 40s. But the most famous example of the way that a new medium can shift voter

03:27:33.240 perceptions and with voter perceptions, especially in these very marginal, tight elections, one of

03:27:37.880 the tightest elections in U.S. history was JFK versus Nixon. And this is the dawn of the television

03:27:44.600 age. And JFK and Nixon had the first televised debate. And JFK's team very wisely had him prepared

03:27:51.560 for this debate he'd shaved he put on makeup for the television medium which richard nixon thought

03:27:58.120 was hilarious uh richard nixon showed up uh off the campaign trail sweaty five o'clock shadow

03:28:05.000 did the tv debate and what makes this so interesting was at the time they polled people

03:28:10.120 that had listened to that debate on radio and nixon won it hands down if you're a radio listener

03:28:15.400 but if you saw the debate on tv you thought that jfk had won it and jfk went on to win that

03:28:22.920 election very close election but many people attribute the shift in perception of him as a

03:28:28.920 candidate to his dominance of the tv medium you know you you flip forward to uh ronald reagan

03:28:36.440 dominated a new ability to target voters with very specific issue specific arguments using direct mail

03:28:45.400 completely changed the game in the election in the 80s and brought out voters that they could

03:28:51.120 appeal to by zip code with very specific issues. You saw Obama say Clinton with email, Obama with

03:28:58.860 social media, Trump with Twitter. This year, it's been podcast. And the most unbelievable example of

03:29:07.080 that is Donald Trump did the podcast with Joe Rogan. Kamala Harris did a podcast with

03:29:14.120 um uh another podcaster um and and you know trump pulled over 40 million viewers in three days uh

03:29:27.560 on the joe rogan podcast vance picked up the podcast afterwards if you look at kamala harris's

03:29:33.240 very best showing on any media at all you're talking about maybe a couple million people

03:29:38.200 uh she appeared on snl just two nights it violated an fcc regulation by doing that but 1.00

03:29:45.000 you know they just didn't understand the medium it didn't fit the errors campaign strategy

03:29:50.520 which was a moderated very very scripted strategy of staying in the basement as as joe biden had

03:29:58.040 and as a result she wasn't putting herself in places that podcasts take people which is if you're

03:30:03.000 an independent you like to see a politician held up like rogan does for three hours and asked

03:30:09.240 absolutely everything and you get a sense of who this person was when you look at the atlas intel

03:30:14.920 which was the most accurate polling uh company in the 2020 election when you look at what they

03:30:22.120 found with independence after trump had started this unity um ticket strategy independence said

03:30:29.560 they understood what trump stood for they knew who he was and they knew what his policies were

03:30:34.120 and they didn't understand that about harris this came up in multiple different questions and i

03:30:38.840 think that one of the things that's happened with the voting population independents are now larger

03:30:43.400 as a cohort and almost 40 percent than either republicans or democrats first time in history

03:30:48.600 and they don't vote party they vote issues and if you're voting issues you want to hear about the

03:30:53.480 issues you care about and if you can find people on podcasts see them ask the question by people

03:30:59.240 that you trust uh who are the hosts you get a sense of their authenticity as a candidate and

03:31:04.360 i i think that this new medium this new technology was game-changing and it benefited the trump

03:31:10.840 campaign so let's just go ahead hold on before that i want to bring uh brian uh brian lee crowley

03:31:18.280 in uh for this conversation yeah yeah for uh to follow on something that uh david knight lake said

03:31:24.120 uh uh yeah bring brian in here uh i'm here yeah brian uh i i i'm sure you i i think you heard

03:31:33.480 what david knightleg said about the unity ticket yeah and that that was really that's interesting

03:31:41.260 it's uh i'm not saying it's never been done before in some form i mean you know candidates

03:31:47.100 presidential candidates will balance themselves out with you know their vice presidential candidate

03:31:53.080 normally. And that's kind of it. And then you'll have some surrogates out there. The Democrats,

03:32:00.220 Kamala Harris picked a frumpy white guy from the Midwest. So that balances her off. Okay.

03:32:06.860 But her surrogates were mostly just celebrities for the most part. But Trump built the so-called

03:32:14.740 unity ticket. These big personalities who can kind of, for lack of a better term, narrow cast

03:32:22.480 Elon Musk is almost futurism. You know, it's technology, it's free speech. He's kind of the

03:32:28.940 anarcho-capitalist, short of Ron Paul, who they got on site, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK, etc.

03:32:37.460 Could you elaborate on, you know, what do you think the effect of the so-called unity ticket was,

03:32:43.280 you know, in terms of able to target different groups on the one side, but also then post-election,

03:32:52.400 how well is that unity ticket going to work?

03:32:55.440 Is Trump going to actually let these guys kind of run their own fiefdoms

03:32:59.660 and do their own thing?

03:33:01.880 Or do you think they're going to – you were actually kind of talking about this earlier.

03:33:06.880 Oh, no, I think it was Ted Morton talking about it.

03:33:09.860 Are they going to get frustrated with Trump and then just kind of storm off

03:33:13.580 and do their own thing?

03:33:15.640 Yeah, look, I think it's very interesting that Trump,

03:33:18.660 who's usually uh thought of uh i think pretty correctly as a guy who's totally self-involved

03:33:26.260 he's he's a bit of a narcissist he's uh he's the candidate who reached out to all of these

03:33:34.100 larger than life figures brought them uh onto his team gave them uh media space uh you know

03:33:41.940 embraced them as voices of the future, reaching out to different constituencies,

03:33:50.180 I thought it was actually quite an impressive performance. And I agree that most of the time,

03:33:56.660 the tradition in American elections is you compliment the ticket with a, you know,

03:34:01.300 a vice presidential candidate who, you know, balances up the weaknesses of the presidential

03:34:07.540 candidate and maybe you know in different states you get the local senator or something to come

03:34:13.220 and stump for you but this kind of reaching out to such a broad range of really impressive

03:34:22.660 articulate thoughtful powerful individuals i think really uh redounded to trump's uh credit

03:34:30.740 and i think uh one of the imitation being the sincerest form of flattery uh you know i i think

03:34:37.540 belatedly kamala harris tried to do something like that with say liz cheney and so on uh uh but i i 1.00

03:34:45.940 don't think it was nearly as successful now you asked a different question which was you know

03:34:52.020 what will be the role of these people once the election is over um i you know i i just don't

03:34:59.460 think that um uh that elon musk wants to get into politics per se the world's richest man you know

03:35:08.660 he's got this huge space company he's got twitter or x uh um you know electric cars um part of what

03:35:18.340 he wants i think is something that's quite consistent with trump's general approach which

03:35:24.500 is to you know stop interfering with people as much as the democrats who love to run around and

03:35:32.900 tell people what to do and tell industries you know what to invest in and so um uh i i think uh

03:35:39.860 ramaswamy and uh and musk and uh ron paul and so on are all interested in a a regime in washington

03:35:49.220 that wants to get out of people's lives um so i i i i don't think that they want to have their own

03:35:59.300 political careers per se other than uh ron paul i guess uh but um they want a different uh they

03:36:08.740 want a different cultural feel in washington which i think trump is quite prepared to give them okay

03:36:15.700 We're just going to pause there for a moment to go to our newsroom, bring in news editor Dave Naylor.

03:36:22.240 He has got some news.

03:36:27.760 Dave, Kamala Harris has some news, and it sure sounds similar to news from Hillary Clinton in 2016.

03:36:39.460 Dave, we cannot hear you.

03:36:41.320 You're yelling at the wall.

03:36:46.700 Sorry, normally I'm yelling at the sky.

03:36:49.820 Yeah, she obviously sees the writing on the wall, Derek.

03:36:53.080 CBS is reporting that she will not speak at her party election gala tonight at Brown University in Washington, D.C.

03:37:04.600 Meanwhile, Trump is apparently on his way to a convention center near Mar-a-Lago, where he will address the faithful tonight.

03:37:13.800 And I'll just give you a quick rundown on those three key states that we're focusing on, starting with Michigan. Donald Trump now 3,500, 120,000 votes ahead. He's got 50.9%. Harris 47.1%.

03:37:34.800 In Pennsylvania, we have a total of 86% reporting, Trump at almost 6% or 51%, Harris at 48%, and it's a 62,000 vote lead for Trump there.

03:37:58.480 And Michigan, last but not least, we have 62%, 51% for Trump, and 47% for Harris.

03:38:11.880 And it's about 230,000 vote lead for Trump.

03:38:21.360 Wow.

03:38:22.960 Yeah.

03:38:25.620 Yeah, it's looking hard.

03:38:27.140 All right, well, we're going to carry former slash probably president-elect Trump's speech from Mar-a-Lago when he takes the stage.

03:38:43.780 We're going to be carrying that live.

03:38:46.840 I want to bring, I don't know, Josh Andrus.

03:38:49.620 We're going to let Josh Andrus go soon, but maybe we want to just bring him in for his last comments from the Western Standard Stampede food critic.

03:38:57.140 uh uh josh before we let you go uh you know do you want to give us uh your uh your final your

03:39:04.880 final thoughts yeah um i'm once again four years later going to bed confident um i think that

03:39:14.400 the republicans are going to win the white house and it looks well we already know they're going

03:39:20.880 to hold the senate and the house so picking the senate yeah so yeah exactly so i mean

03:39:27.920 even if they lose the white house there's a certain check that they have built into their

03:39:35.120 system that helps to prevent against what we have going on up here with which is effectively tyranny

03:39:41.760 of the majority so yeah no i i'm i'm going to bed confident i'm looking forward to hopefully waking

03:39:49.060 up this morning and not having to deal with what we had to deal with four years ago but uh we'll

03:39:54.700 see so that's all i got all right thank you that's uh josh andrus yep he is you for having me in

03:40:01.620 addition to being our stampede food critic he is also a uh western standard columnist and uh the

03:40:07.600 head of project uh confederate well i'm on strike for my columns again just so you know you're you're

03:40:14.040 fired. I'm union busting right now. You're done. All right. Okay. See you guys. Have

03:40:20.100 a good night.

03:40:20.500 There's speaker tins for you. All right. All right. Okay. It was Josh Andrus.

03:40:27.720 I'm going to come back on Brian, actually.

03:40:29.680 Okay. What's your take?

03:40:31.000 Brian, right at the beginning of the program, we were talking about what were the main points

03:40:36.420 on the, and David, I'm going to be asking you the same question. So, hey, we were talking

03:40:43.820 Well, where were the big turning points in the campaign?

03:40:47.260 How did it all come together?

03:40:48.940 But one thing that seems to have emerged over the evening is that the support for Harris

03:40:56.360 that we thought was there, which would make things extremely close,

03:41:02.280 was not as strong as we thought.

03:41:06.360 It seemed like people were giving us the idea at the start that,

03:41:11.700 yes, we're all for Harris all the time.

03:41:13.820 They weren't. And things changed over the course of the campaign, I would argue. What say you?

03:41:24.860 Well, so, you see, I think we have to distinguish between those people who are seen, at least in the minds of the media and some people in the Democratic Party as spokespeople for different parts of the population.

03:41:40.520 And those groups of the population themselves, you know, whether we're talking about Catholics or we're talking about women, we're talking about married couples, you know, there were lots of people who claimed to speak on behalf of these groups and claimed to say that they were going to vote for Harris.

03:41:59.660 But in the event, it turned out that they were not speaking for these people, that in fact, you know, just the margin for Paris, for example, amongst women turns out be roughly 11 percent in her favor.

03:42:18.940 But nobody was talking about the fact that married people broke 11 percent in favor of Trump and completely canceled out the advantage that Harris had amongst women.

03:42:36.020 And, for example, the advantage you had amongst single cat ladies. 1.00

03:42:40.460 Well, yes, I noticed that J.D. Vance has regretted that, and rightly so. But, you know, Catholics, another group that were traditionally thought to be closer to the Democrats, much more distinct from, say, evangelicals. 0.88

03:43:05.460 but Trump appears to be winning the Catholic vote by 12 to 15%. You know, that decision not to go to

03:43:13.240 the Al Smith dinner may have been a real faux pas by Kamala Harris. And so, you know, if you

03:43:22.860 like to think of the electorate as composed of all these disparate groups and politicians are

03:43:29.380 trying to win the groups uh i i actually don't think it quite works that way but if you like to

03:43:35.860 think about it that way uh many of the groups that people had assumed uh were safely in the

03:43:43.780 democratic camp turned out not to be that way at all and i think that a lot of it has to do

03:43:49.140 with something david said that uh you know this is the first election where independents uh are

03:43:54.180 a larger share of the vote uh the voting population than either of the political parties uh and um

03:44:03.220 you know clearly i i think one of the things that pollsters missed is the fact that uh you know in

03:44:10.980 this election donald trump was completely a known quantity he'd already been president for four

03:44:16.420 years he'd been doing his thing for the last four years in opposition to the biden presidency

03:44:22.180 and you know the the the media and the the democrats kept trying to re-litigate you know

03:44:28.180 talking about all these things that people don't like about donald trump as if it was something

03:44:32.820 they just discovered whereas the electorate knew all about that they'd made their decision they

03:44:38.340 decided that even though they didn't like trump as a person that was not going to be what would

03:44:43.380 decide their vote uh and uh as a result i think the the democrats ran uh uh you know a ham-fisted

03:44:52.740 campaign that didn't understand what was going on in the minds of voters that thought that trump's

03:44:58.100 personality was going to be the winning issue for them when in fact uh trump's personality clearly

03:45:03.940 was completely discounted you know people said okay yeah okay i don't like the guy but that's

03:45:09.540 not how I'm going to vote. I'm going to vote on issues. I know something about Trump. He's a

03:45:16.260 known quantity to me. Kamala Harris, who's Kamala Harris? She had responsibility for the border. 1.00

03:45:22.580 What did she do? Nothing that anybody can discover. Actually, Trump's negatives turned out

03:45:31.780 not to be as powerful as the Democrats hoped they were.

03:45:35.060 So, same question to you, Brian. Where did they lose the narrative? And incidentally,

03:45:40.980 what's your opinion of having celebrities join you on, you know, Beyonce come on stage, 0.90

03:45:46.660 go and do a chat with Oprah Winfrey? You know, is this helpful if you want to be president?

03:45:57.460 There's a question for me? Well...

03:45:59.140 Well, you can certainly take a whack at it, but I certainly want David to...

03:46:02.020 well yeah i've yacked a lot why don't we let david uh all right david sure i'll pick up the celebrity

03:46:08.980 question well first of all i think in my mind there were three very pivotal moments in the

03:46:14.900 campaign and i i really want to pick up on a theme that i think brian's mentioned that's really

03:46:19.540 important which is um because kamala harris was coronated instead of going through a normal

03:46:26.340 nomination process i think her campaign began with a very tone deaf uh sort of sequencing

03:46:34.500 because typically what happens when you have to win your party over you you try and appeal to your

03:46:40.980 base and you you kind of get that out of your system as a party and then when you go into the

03:46:47.220 general election you shift and you shift your strategy towards trying to appeal to the to the

03:46:53.940 majority to the middle uh people that aren't in your base and i think kamala harris's campaign

03:46:59.460 reflected a group of people that were still making arguments for their base they weren't making very

03:47:05.700 good arguments for the general public which is why they went through this insane sort of lost

03:47:11.060 week of trying to convince people that trump was hitler and a fascist because they had sort of this

03:47:16.420 specious quote by somebody that said he said something one time about hitler's generals i

03:47:20.740 mean it was it was embarrassing and i think that level of tone deafness is what happens when you're

03:47:25.380 still talking to your own team and thinking you can convince somebody to sort of become a um you

03:47:32.260 know a desperate hard left liberal instead of coming to them on their terms uh so i think the

03:47:38.100 first mistake in a way started with with the coronation that sort of shaped a poor strategy

03:47:43.380 because that then worked out who she was and what she would stand for and then how they would account 0.93

03:47:47.860 for that the second mistake related to that was her choice of tim waltz which was just baffling

03:47:54.340 you know when you looked at the option of potentially choosing joe shapiro who's a moderate

03:48:00.340 like school of choice you know can has won statewide in pennsylvania knows pennsylvania

03:48:06.100 like the back of his hand and could have delivered pennsylvania focused on delivering pennsylvania

03:48:11.380 to choose somebody that is already you know is as liberal as she is and she was the most liberal

03:48:16.660 senator in a state that they already sort of had in their

03:48:19.600 column, and turns out to have been a guy that was sort of

03:48:22.720 deeply misleading about his military career, his DUI, and

03:48:27.220 then was just, you know, candidly, just sort of a

03:48:29.780 strange persona, was a huge unforced error. And again, I

03:48:34.240 think what happened when you sort of ask yourself, how does

03:48:36.820 the campaign do that? It was because they're trying to

03:48:39.220 satisfy their base rather than appeal to the middle and to

03:48:42.580 make a strategic mistake, when you have someone like a

03:48:45.520 jules shapiro in a state like like pennsylvania is crazy so you know i i would say the one 0.93

03:48:52.440 moment and brian mentioned this the weekend where trump was at the al smith dinner and was given

03:48:57.640 free reign to troll the harris campaign and then some of the trolling was very funny uh and then

03:49:05.160 later on decided and this came out of a podcast with some some young guys that he would troll

03:49:10.740 Harris for what he said was lying about her service at McDonald's, he ended up breaking

03:49:16.580 the internet with those pictures of him donning an apron and serving fries and chatting up people

03:49:21.720 going through the McDonald's drive-thru. And when you do the numbers, here's the interesting thing

03:49:25.700 about that and how savvy this campaign is. You know, one in eight Americans has worked out of

03:49:31.440 McDonald's at some point in their life. I had no idea it was epic. I did not know that McDonald's

03:49:36.720 was the single largest employer, public or private, in the entire United States.

03:49:41.400 I had none of those details until I dug in.

03:49:44.400 I wanted to make, you know, write a note about and I wrote a post on Twitter about it.

03:49:48.900 When I actually did the math, you can look this up, I was absolutely floored.

03:49:53.000 So here's a guy who's trolling his opponent by appearing in McDonald's.

03:49:57.980 But by doing that, he's also making himself relatable again to these independents,

03:50:02.780 one in eight of whom have a deep personal relationship to having worked there.

03:50:06.720 And he's well known for loving and serving it on his plane and serving his White House.

03:50:11.060 And you can't make up those images. You can't deal with that level of instinct.

03:50:15.420 And I think that moment, that weekend, the combination of the L Smith dinner and the moment at McDonald's was sort of this one to retail punch where you've got a guy who knew how to appeal to the middle.

03:50:27.540 He was no longer trying to appeal to the Republican base.

03:50:30.520 And he appealed to the middle by adopting RFK Jr., who's a well-known Democrat, doesn't agree with policy.

03:50:37.360 Or make America healthy again as Trump serves McDonald's.

03:50:40.900 Exactly.

03:50:41.620 And you know what's funny about that is, and this is where I think that campaign, you know, the Harris campaign was a bit hapless.

03:50:48.820 Although they had three times the money of the Trump campaign, they were doing all this paid media.

03:50:54.020 They were doing all this radio targeting.

03:50:56.840 Their data targeting was exceptional.

03:50:58.980 They were a disciplined campaign, hugely well financed.

03:51:01.360 but they lacked the the common sense elements that trump brought to the table it costed nothing for

03:51:08.380 him to work in a mcdonald's for a half hour but it broke the internet and it dominated the cycle

03:51:13.520 and during the day he was working at the mcdonald's her team had planned this exceptional day of

03:51:19.140 celebrity uh to return to your question nigel about celebrities she was at um she was at a 0.93

03:51:26.400 celebrity birthday party she was another celebrity event uh stevie wonders birthday parties you know 1.00

03:51:32.020 and and yet you could have if a tree fell in a forest i mean nobody even knew she had done it

03:51:37.300 because everyone's still laughing about seeing donald trump work the drive-through window

03:51:40.640 so i think that uh my favorite celebrity endorsement um was either um j-lo who's in the

03:51:50.960 middle of being questioned about why she dated p diddy for so long but somehow didn't know what

03:51:55.780 was going on, you know, uh, or, or you've got, uh, Leonardo DiCaprio, who's caught up

03:52:02.620 in this, this, uh, P Diddy issue that is kind of captured middle America in terms of who

03:52:08.780 went to these parties and what they were doing there.

03:52:11.380 And, you know, Leonardo DiCaprio made this point about how you had to vote for Paris

03:52:15.360 if you cared about the environment.

03:52:16.600 And all I saw on, on X were just meme after meme of DiCaprio on a yacht that burns more

03:52:22.900 fuel in uh three hours than most households use in uh six months and and flies private onto his

03:52:29.940 jets and so you i think the celebrity endorsement thing can work but it's a very different thing

03:52:36.340 from saying to somebody who's a political opponent who represents a strong cohort of people that

03:52:42.420 mostly moms that care a lot about child health and bring them into your campaign and saying you will 1.00

03:52:47.300 be a member of the transition team you will run your own campaign within my campaign and i will

03:52:52.740 put you in charge of hhs that's a very different thing than an endorsement that crosses the aisle

03:52:58.820 and that's why the endorsement from liz cheney meant nothing to anybody adam kitzinger and

03:53:03.540 liz cheney are meaningless to republicans but they also don't carry any known cohort 1.00

03:53:08.660 they don't represent any specific group of potential voters and so i think the difference

03:53:14.020 and the difference in the endorsement game.

03:53:16.380 All right, I just want to note here from our newsroom,

03:53:19.980 Donald Trump has departed Mar-a-Lago

03:53:24.140 and is on his way to a Palm Beach County Convention Center

03:53:27.700 where his supporters have gathered.

03:53:30.040 We're going to be carrying that speech live.

03:53:32.460 I just want to note, I haven't been looking at the comments,

03:53:36.100 but Nico, just put that headline up for the last time.

03:53:39.780 We're going to switch it back to something a bit more professional,

03:53:41.900 But I just want to note that my favorite headline of the year, Florida man is on the cusp of becoming president.

03:53:53.260 Always beware. Florida man always makes the best headlines.

03:53:57.220 All right. Well, we'll bring it back to something a bit more professional now.

03:54:00.740 So I also want to note, Nico, let's pull up the side screen here.

03:54:07.980 Let's pull up not the map of my needle screen here.

03:54:11.900 Yeah. Okay. So we have the New York Times live presidential forecast is up to a 93% chance that Donald Trump will win.

03:54:24.760 And that's becoming statistically highly unlikely that Kamala Harris will be president. 0.73

03:54:34.320 Although I have a crazy, I wouldn't call it theory, but I would say guess that just for the sake of making the history books, small chance Joe Biden actually resigns before Donald Trump gets sworn in so that she gets to be president for a month or two.

03:54:54.640 gets a portrait on the wall,

03:54:56.060 and she gets to be the first U.S. female president,

03:54:58.980 denying that title likely from some future Republican woman.

03:55:04.060 Why do you think he would do that for her after the way he was eased out?

03:55:09.800 Well, they can ease him out some more.

03:55:11.760 It was a 23rd Amendment or whatever it's called for mental incapacity.

03:55:16.640 They could do that to him.

03:55:17.940 He clearly meets the level of mental incapacity 0.98

03:55:22.760 to actually be president of the United States.

03:55:26.320 I'm not saying it's likely, but I'm saying it's a plausible scenario.

03:55:31.740 Harris has got a 7% chance of being president as of 10.56 p.m. Mountain Standard Time

03:55:40.480 from the election.

03:55:44.720 But I'd say she's got 25, maybe not even 25.

03:55:50.120 I don't know, she's got an outside chance that the Democrats are going to do something, because you've got to remember, wokeism, social progressivism is about symbolism.

03:55:59.820 And this would be symbolic. It gets her on the board as the first president. 0.93

03:56:05.060 Hitler Clinton didn't have that option because she wasn't the vice president running. 1.00

03:56:09.300 So let's look at the Electoral College estimates.

03:56:13.840 Worst case scenario for Trump is 260.

03:56:15.840 high and for Trump 322 which would be a blowout obviously it's likely to be somewhere in the

03:56:24.400 middle there popular vote estimate has actually gone up to 1.2 percent if he does that he would

03:56:32.400 be the first Republican since 2004 Bush versus Kerry to to win looking here North Carolina and

03:56:43.040 Georgia are just 100 percent Trump at this point. They're done. Pennsylvania is up to 85 percent

03:56:49.060 likely Trump. Arizona, 83. Doesn't need it. No, it doesn't. It should need it. Yeah. Arizona, 83.

03:56:58.920 Wisconsin, 78. Michigan, 70. But the big three, again, to remember is Michigan, Wisconsin,

03:57:06.460 Pennsylvania. Trump needs just one of those, and it's done. I'll put this question to any one of

03:57:17.160 our panel members. It could be David Dyne-Lague. It could be Brian Lee Crowley. It could be Nigel.

03:57:21.820 It could be Corey. You could all take a turn on it if you want to pick it up. Actually,

03:57:27.500 I will put it to Corey first, but then anyone else can have it. Is this the end of WOKE?

03:57:35.020 Oh, God, no.

03:57:37.900 They have been defeated, likely.

03:57:40.440 Okay, they're 97% likely defeated here by not just someone who's not woke,

03:57:46.280 but the man they think is Orange Hitler.

03:57:50.640 Are they going to – they didn't seem to learn any lessons after they were defeated in 2016.

03:57:57.660 Do you think – because the pendulum is swinging hard.

03:58:00.840 It's swinging hard against them now.

03:58:02.780 Are they going to learn lessons?

03:58:04.120 Is this the end of woke?

03:58:05.020 This is a setback for woke, but they are insidious. They're determined. They dominate

03:58:10.420 bureaucracies. They dominate universities. They dominate large corporations.

03:58:16.060 This is the end of it as a major electoral force.

03:58:18.500 As an electoral force, yes. But as a societal force, there's still a whole lot of rot to clean 0.56

03:58:23.060 out. It'll be interesting to see if President Trump goes after how he can go after and try

03:58:27.240 and stop that. But people have had enough. There's no doubt they've had enough of it in their face.

03:58:31.060 They've had enough of the cancel culture. 1.00

03:58:32.960 They've had enough of the faux outrage over every perceived slight.

03:58:37.040 They've had it with being told that men are women. 1.00

03:58:39.560 But it doesn't stop the backroom stuff that goes on,

03:58:43.320 the stuff we don't see as visibly.

03:58:45.420 So the lunatics who push the woke agenda, they're on their heels tonight,

03:58:49.860 but no, they're not gone by any measure.

03:58:52.500 I don't know that I agree with you, Corey.

03:58:56.040 It takes an instruction from the top.

03:58:58.520 It took an instruction from the Biden administration to send the Army and the Navy into a period of self-reflection in which some people were actually eased out because they wouldn't fit the new DEI look that they were seeking for the military.

03:59:21.200 Well, nobody voted for that.

03:59:23.400 It was just done.

03:59:25.100 Well, it can be done undone.

03:59:27.660 Oh, yeah.

03:59:28.520 And I'd like to see it, but there's a lot of colleges and universities to work on.

03:59:32.440 Well, they'll come next.

03:59:33.780 Yes, I hope so.

03:59:35.260 And Mr. Trump knows all about using money to influence events.

03:59:40.140 Oh, certainly.

03:59:40.680 So, you know, there's a lot of people who have to live with it and put up with it who just hate it.

03:59:45.800 They don't want it.

03:59:47.840 And so if somebody actually shows some leadership, he will follow.

03:59:53.240 I don't know.

03:59:53.700 What are you saying?

03:59:54.280 If I might, I think it's very important to remember that, you know, elections are by their nature kind of binary, either winning or lose, especially in a two party presidential system like this.

04:00:08.660 But the other thing that we're seeing, which isn't reflected in the fact that, you know, Trump will win a major victory, is how deeply divided America is.

04:00:20.620 I mean, if he wins the popular vote, it will be by, you know, maybe 1%, and he might not even win the popular vote.

04:00:29.860 And, you know, the Republicans will have maybe a two-seat majority in the Senate, maybe a handful of seats majority in the House of Representatives.

04:00:41.900 It doesn't take much to flip this at a future point.

04:00:45.520 And remember, too, that Trump has got a maximum of four years ahead of him.

04:00:52.260 He can't be reelected. His political career will be over.

04:00:56.920 Halfway through a second term, most presidents lose a great deal of their political authority.

04:01:03.620 There's going to be midterm elections.

04:01:05.380 I mean, you know, none of the forces that have been at work in this election are are defeated.

04:01:13.240 as you know somebody once said and i think it's absolutely true in politics no defeat is final

04:01:19.900 and no victory is permanent that was john williamson of the canadian taxpayers well there

04:01:24.280 you go and i i don't know if he was the first to say it but he was one of the early ones to repeat

04:01:30.020 it uh and so you know i i wouldn't i wouldn't read uh the kind of anality into it that uh

04:01:41.280 that the question suggested,

04:01:43.720 because these forces are not spent.

04:01:48.100 At this moment, there are some winners and losers,

04:01:52.940 but there are many, many more decision points

04:01:55.500 yet to be gone through,

04:01:58.720 and Americans are deeply divided.

04:02:01.060 That's the message I take away from this election.

04:02:03.560 Yeah. Well, I'll just note, we're waiting for kind of president-elect-ish Trump to address his supporters. He's already left his, he's already left Mar-a-Lago. He's on his way to Palm Beach Convention Center.

04:02:28.620 you can see the image there

04:02:31.220 mega hats everywhere

04:02:33.360 I'm going to go out on a limb and say he declares himself

04:02:37.380 no matter what

04:02:38.160 if he gets to that stage

04:02:39.500 I think Trump declares it

04:02:41.000 was it

04:02:42.680 Juicy Sommelier is going to be

04:02:45.800 very scared of this crowd

04:02:47.880 so many mega hats

04:02:50.500 I want to come back to an earlier question

04:02:55.980 I had

04:02:56.620 And some of you, I think some of you may have been here.

04:02:59.420 Some of you were not.

04:03:01.880 You two, obviously, were here.

04:03:04.320 But about what happens after Trump?

04:03:06.600 Because, yeah, he's got four years.

04:03:11.140 If he can't block all the bullets with his ears, you know, he's got four years.

04:03:17.620 And then, because I do not believe, Oprah, that this is the last election in America.

04:03:23.540 This is the last election in America of 2024.

04:03:26.620 yeah uh whatever else you think about him and i i i do think he's you know he got he has some

04:03:35.220 things to answer for but he's not ending elections he's not ending democracy in america the republic

04:03:39.020 the republic will be okay but uh what comes after after trump is there still trumpism

04:03:48.260 does trumpism require trump like ron de santos ran for the republican nomination

04:03:55.680 That's the guy I probably would have preferred the most in this cycle, who put his name forward.

04:04:01.640 And he was offering Trumpism without Trump.

04:04:06.800 You know, the same kind of policies, the same kind of irreverence, but, you know, not as many of the personal insults, a bit more decorum.

04:04:16.240 Someone would be a bit more presidential as president. 0.65

04:04:18.860 is

04:04:21.080 you know

04:04:22.480 is there Trumpism after Trump

04:04:24.920 or is Trumpism unique to

04:04:27.000 Trump the man

04:04:28.500 and I'll put that to anyone

04:04:31.020 well I think Trumpism if that's what you're

04:04:35.080 going to call it is unique

04:04:37.120 to Trump

04:04:38.420 but the strings

04:04:41.180 that he has plucked in order

04:04:43.220 to be able to attain what he has

04:04:45.200 attained which could be the

04:04:47.120 presidency for a second time, are going to outlast him. You don't cease to be a person

04:04:55.300 who has a certain set of values and a certain set of expectations just because the one person

04:05:02.380 in the world who was able to clearly articulate them to your satisfaction has moved on. They

04:05:08.980 will look for somebody else. And it's too early to say whether it'll be J.D. Vance or

04:05:14.940 not but i think we were talking about this earlier and he would be the it would be very capable as

04:05:20.940 given his background how he thinks about life and his intelligence to carry on and maybe you don't

04:05:30.380 need another trump you need somebody who knows how to work with trumpism and lead it forward

04:05:37.820 that could be, well, Vance is the only one I can think of, but who knows, there could be others.

04:05:46.700 And you say? Look, I think there's been a shift in the Republican Party in the last eight years

04:05:56.300 that started with Trump, but it's broader than Trump. And I think that even though Trump is,

04:06:03.820 you know an american original and a one-off i think that the core of of what his electoral

04:06:10.700 success and the new configuration of the different interest groups that he addressed particularly

04:06:15.820 working-class people um has shifted the republican party itself and you've got a generation of

04:06:21.500 leaders that actually have come up uh in congress and in the senate that look a lot less like the

04:06:28.140 mit romney george w bush center of the party that existed uh you know 15 20 years ago and look

04:06:35.900 a lot more um divergent from that center and and there's a variety of i i think that's a multi-polar

04:06:44.300 uh configuration now i don't think it just sits with trump at all and and uh and you you saw

04:06:50.780 you know his diversion is bergam on the one hand tim scott you've got ron de santis coming in as

04:06:55.980 a governor. Glenn Youngkin is an extraordinary governor and I think extremely capable and able

04:07:03.260 to articulate presidential aspirations. I think that one of the one of the hidden issues between

04:07:10.220 the two parties right now is the Republicans of the party of the octogenarians. You know,

04:07:14.780 they are very old, very tired crowd in the Senate. And, you know, the Republicans have dominated the

04:07:22.540 governor's um offices and are producing a variety of very highly competitive people that will bring

04:07:31.660 their own kind of perspective as president or potential president to the party but i think this

04:07:37.260 is a this is a uh a shift that's been structural not just secular or episodic depending on who

04:07:44.380 who's there i think trump has partly remade the party by making it more accountable to a broader

04:07:49.900 swath of the socioeconomic group you saw what happened with with his uh penetration in the

04:07:56.460 hispanic community particularly hispanic men the numbers are coming out with the african-american

04:08:01.180 men um and uh and i think part of the social conservatism that he's picked up on to be

04:08:07.580 the the top pick in dearborn michigan by the uh arab community muslim community you know he's

04:08:13.180 addressing things that people care about the trans issue that he came out very hard on is is

04:08:17.980 you know, one of the things that I think he saw it as a great advantage, a previous version of

04:08:22.660 Republicans would have been quite careful not to say anything. He came out and said it, and I think

04:08:27.440 he won hearts and minds with it. And so I do think that's a shift that's affected the DNA of the

04:08:32.680 party. So I want to get a little historical here. I was just speaking off the cuff. The other night

04:08:44.100 with my family, and I was thinking if Trump wins,

04:08:48.840 he'll be only, there's only been one or two

04:08:51.540 non-consecutive two-term presidents.

04:08:54.960 I just did a little work on the Google machine here.

04:08:59.000 And it actually turns out there was only one,

04:09:02.280 Grover Cleveland, actually a very great,

04:09:04.440 but yet underrated American president

04:09:06.380 from the Gilded Age, 1885 to 1889.

04:09:10.440 And then again from 1893 to 1897.

04:09:14.100 Trump stands, is poised right now to be only the second non-consecutive two-term U.S. president.

04:09:28.480 It's significant. I'm not sure how it's significant, but it is significant.

04:09:33.440 Canada has not had many non-consecutive, I think I was maybe mixing up my numbers with Canada,

04:09:37.960 but Prime Minister's with non-consecutive terms.

04:09:42.040 Sir John MacDonald was both first prime minister and the first to have non-consecutive terms.

04:09:49.680 Mackenzie King technically had non-consecutive terms, but his break in there was extremely short.

04:09:57.060 Pierre Trudeau had a brief interregnum nine months of Joe Clark doing his best impression of a math professor, had a non-consecutive term.

04:10:08.680 So there's been a bit more, but that's a parliamentary system with majorities and minorities and that kind of thing.

04:10:15.780 So let's put it out there.

04:10:17.780 What is the significance, if any, of a non-consecutive presidency?

04:10:25.120 Other than that, instead of having to suffer eight years of Trump talking to them, Democrats now have to suffer 12 years of Trump talking to them.

04:10:34.600 well lessons learned i think would be my first response to that i think the democrats can have

04:10:44.200 a very hard time derailing this presidency the way they did with the russian hoax 0.99

04:10:53.000 yeah and and i i also think that uh trump uh learned some things about

04:11:02.520 self-control in the in the first uh trump president i think he realized that he got himself

04:11:08.200 unnecessarily into trouble uh in ways that are entirely avoidable and i i certainly sensed a

04:11:15.320 softening uh over the course of this uh campaign and i i think we're actually going to see a

04:11:23.160 different kind of trump i i think he's been a little even though he's got tremendous energy

04:11:28.360 for a man's age he is he is older and i i i i think he just doesn't have quite the energy to be

04:11:36.440 the disruptive for the uh that he was in his uh in his first term and i think that the uh i think

04:11:44.360 the atmosphere in washington is going to be uh is going to be quite different i i i certainly think

04:11:50.520 he's he's going to be more strategic in his attempt to take on you know what the british

04:11:55.960 called the blob you know the uh the deep state or however you like to think about uh because i i i

04:12:02.680 think it was very disorganized and kind of firing off in all directions in the first presidency i

04:12:08.920 think he's going to be uh a lot more strategic uh you know his appointments uh and in uh picking

04:12:18.280 those things that he thinks are really important and driving those home in a way that I think he

04:12:26.280 was unsuccessful in doing in his first term. Do you think it changed when he was almost

04:12:32.040 assassinated? I really think that deepened all those other trends that I talked about. I think

04:12:41.080 he i think it made him realize just how vulnerable he is i mean a near-death experience does that to

04:12:49.000 people uh and um you know i back to this uh this question of uh trump's inheritance you see i i

04:12:59.320 think that trump has created a uh a wholly new republican party which i think david described

04:13:06.520 quite well this this i this party of people who are disaffected from the elites that have been

04:13:14.440 running uh washington and indeed most american institutions for uh decades and there's going

04:13:22.200 to be a competition uh amongst the rising generation of republicans to gain control of that

04:13:30.520 very powerful electoral coalition uh so i i don't think there will be any shortage of candidates

04:13:37.000 and one of the one of the brilliant things about the american political system is all the openings

04:13:42.680 that it provides to the you know the governorships and the the primary system and so on there will be

04:13:50.600 a lot of contenders for the control of that uh of that coalition and it's uh fortunately i think

04:14:01.080 there's a lot of talent in the republican party and it's i think it's quite unpredictable which

04:14:06.360 one of them will jd vance because of his uh you know how will he perform as as vice president uh

04:14:13.720 will ron de santos be able to overcome some of the weaknesses that were revealed by his attempt

04:14:19.320 to displace Trump through the primary process. I think one of the things I admire most about

04:14:27.480 the American system is its ability to be open to so many people who can challenge the system,

04:14:35.160 who can make a bid for control of different parts of the system. And the Republican Party

04:14:42.360 is blessed I think with a rising generation of leaders, several of whom I could see being the

04:14:50.020 one to inherit what Trump has created. All right. So we're going to go to an update from our newsroom

04:14:57.920 in just a moment. We have some new calls to make or announce. But I just want to let everyone know

04:15:05.220 when uh donald trump takes the stage uh we're gonna we're gonna we're gonna show his speech

04:15:13.500 when that happens but that'll that'll be the end of the show that'll be the end uh we'll have

04:15:20.560 thoughts more thoughts tomorrow about that speech about you know as we learn more of the returns

04:15:26.420 coming in but uh we'll leave you the last word tonight we'll go to donald trump so i i would

04:15:33.320 just want to pre-thank uh Nigel and Corey joining me tonight Nico running broadcast David the news

04:15:40.980 room uh Michelle and James running operations here uh and all of our guest uh guest panelists

04:15:47.900 we've had Briley Crowley David Knightleg uh attempted to have David Wilkins uh from a U.S. 0.92

04:15:54.820 ambassador to Canada but the tech didn't work out uh Simon Hank Hankinson uh Ted Morton

04:16:00.580 uh so because we'll i i'm imagining trump is going to come to the stage we're going to have

04:16:08.160 a fairly rude exit so i just want to thank everyone up front now and know that i'm not

04:16:12.740 intending to be a jerk i'm just going to be one uh but i'm cutting myself off at that point too

04:16:17.880 uh so uh we're going to resume the discussion but first i want to go to we're going to bring 0.90

04:16:22.740 dave nailer from the newsroom uh let's uh let's put dave and the map up on the screen dave what

04:16:29.380 got for us? Dave, can you hear us? Nope. David Naylor in the newsroom. All right.

04:16:46.960 While we're trying to get his attention, I can't.

04:16:52.540 Hey, Derek. Only thing to tell you at the moment is,

04:16:55.760 yes i can hear you i can't hear you can you guys hear me yes we can hear you yeah yeah yeah

04:17:03.040 yes can you get i can hear you you can't hear me we can hear you yes you are good talk

04:17:14.080 if uh if uh james or anyone in operations room is listening 0.82

04:17:19.200 go over and slap dave in the back of the head and tell them we can hear him 0.67

04:17:26.400 And Dave has just gone. 0.96

04:17:28.260 Derek, I have a thought for you.

04:17:31.040 The most interesting dynamic in terms of a close call will be Michigan because Michigan is where the Democrats first sued to keep RFK Jr. off the ballot.

04:17:43.200 Then when he ended up on the ballot, sued to keep him on the ballot instead of allowing him to leave.

04:17:49.680 So if we win, sorry, if the Republicans win Michigan with-

04:17:55.280 Bring up the map.

04:17:56.580 It'll be it'll be interesting.

04:17:58.900 Yeah.

04:17:59.240 Well, let's take a look at Michigan right now.

04:18:03.540 72 percent of estimated returns in Trump opening up not a giant lead, but, you know, for a swing state getting to be a decent lead there.

04:18:17.400 50.3 percent over Harris's 47.9 percent.

04:18:22.120 i mean that that is funny uh originally democrats thought thinking he was gonna

04:18:28.320 peel more support off of them and yeah suing to keep him off the belt and then uh suing to keep

04:18:33.860 him on the ballot um yeah sorry uh go ahead david yeah it's got half a point it's not nothing

04:18:40.340 okay uh yeah so i'm not sure i'll actually be able to bring dave in uh his internet connection

04:18:47.400 is a bit uh getting a bit rusty uh you know while we're at it let's um let's go through some of these

04:18:53.620 key swing states okay so we just went through uh michigan here uh so remember uh we're looking

04:18:58.900 uh let's just uh bring my bring my magic map back in let's bring the magic map back on the screen

04:19:09.700 here derek you know they've they've called they've called georgia now well they called georgia hours

04:19:15.380 ago. Well, I had it still hanging there for a long time, but it's now settled.

04:19:29.200 With all due respect, the major networks called Georgia, I think, probably, I'm going to guess

04:19:36.720 that two to three hours, two hours ago. Yeah, Georgia's been in a pretty solid wind column

04:19:43.140 for trump for some time i know the uh let's uh bring up the state by state likeliness yeah we

04:19:49.100 got um so new york times say georgia is like 100 it's it's republican this is interesting okay so

04:19:58.040 actually okay so we are now at a 95 very likely chance according to the new york times that donald

04:20:06.880 Trump will be president.

04:20:10.180 She's done.

04:20:11.860 Trump's popular vote

04:20:13.000 is up to a lead of 1.3%.

04:20:15.280 I could be wrong, but that might even

04:20:16.960 beat Bush's popular

04:20:18.840 vote lead over

04:20:19.840 John Kerry.

04:20:25.120 Their electoral college estimate

04:20:26.800 on the New York Times,

04:20:28.700 his minimum is 276.

04:20:31.720 You need 270

04:20:33.140 to win.

04:20:34.900 270 to win.

04:20:36.880 uh 276 is his minimum at this point his ceiling is 322. Nevada finally started coming in a bit

04:20:46.540 75 percent of the votes are in and Trump's leading by uh 50.9 percent to 47.5 thanks for

04:20:53.660 coming out finally Nevada thanks for coming out Arizona's still locked you know for all those

04:20:58.320 casinos you got you'd think to be able to count quickly right you'd think so um so so look at the

04:21:04.380 screen here. So actually, you know, bring it back to this map here for a moment. These three here,

04:21:12.080 let's remember, Nevada, you don't count. You're done. The math is just, it only works in a crazy

04:21:18.200 Kamala. Kamala would need to win virtually everything else at this point. So then Nevada 0.92

04:21:24.480 maybe comes into play, but it pretty much doesn't matter at this point. Trump needs to win one of

04:21:29.720 the three uh blue wall states those those three uncolored kind of or poop colored puke colored 0.75

04:21:38.240 states at the top there wisconsin michigan pennsylvania uh he needs one of those three

04:21:47.100 kamala needs all of them pretty much yeah yeah uh trump needs all three so let's let's look 0.99

04:21:55.120 at all three and the chances wisconsin the smallest but still enough to put trump

04:22:00.680 back in the president's chair 90 reporting trump is leading 51.2 to 47.4

04:22:07.740 and according to the needle machine at the new york times wisconsin is 82 likely going trump

04:22:18.980 let's look at Michigan

04:22:22.060 15 electoral votes

04:22:23.700 also enough

04:22:25.000 to make Trump president again

04:22:27.720 50

04:22:29.540 it has

04:22:31.080 73% reporting

04:22:33.180 50.5% for Trump

04:22:36.080 47.6%

04:22:38.000 Kamala Harris

04:22:39.020 according to the needle machine

04:22:41.120 at the New York Times

04:22:43.200 Michigan

04:22:44.900 70% likely

04:22:47.580 going for Trump

04:22:49.680 So he could lose that one.

04:22:52.660 But then he's got Pennsylvania.

04:22:56.120 Pennsylvania has a lot of electoral votes, 19.

04:23:00.940 But all he needs is just a few more.

04:23:02.920 You know, Derek, if it was just one and the other four were sort of more pro-Harris,

04:23:10.560 you would say, well, who knows how this is going to work out?

04:23:13.320 But think of these as polls, samplings.

04:23:17.000 And now you have taken a poll of 90% of the people in a population, and it seems to point one way.

04:23:24.460 You've got your answer.

04:23:26.180 Yeah.

04:23:26.740 He's going to win.

04:23:27.640 Like they're all looking that way.

04:23:29.660 So one of them is going to cross the border first, and it'll be done. 0.95

04:23:34.700 Barks just called Pennsylvania and called for Trump's win.

04:23:37.840 Who just called Pennsylvania?

04:23:39.280 Fox.

04:23:39.900 Fox?

04:23:40.320 Yeah.

04:23:40.440 Okay, 91%. Pennsylvania, 91% of polls reporting Trump opening up a bigger lead, 51.2% over 47.8% for Harris.

04:23:52.480 So let's bring that back up.

04:23:55.700 Oh, yeah, 270 has also called, 2702win.com has also called Pennsylvania for Trump.

04:24:05.100 270 electoral votes is enough to win.

04:24:12.040 And there's another 55 up for Grimes.

04:24:13.960 But those 55 don't matter.

04:24:17.300 He's got it.

04:24:18.360 He just got the 270.

04:24:19.840 70, I think, pending crazy mail-in ballot shenanigans, gentlemen, I think.

04:24:30.660 Are you saying the Western Standard is calling it?

04:24:33.300 I'm saying 270.com has called it.

04:24:36.860 I'm saying Fox News has called it.

04:24:39.300 I'm expecting very soon the other, the more, the Democratic networks to call it.

04:24:45.280 Based on what we have, I mean, I'm not Wolf Blitzer zooming in to a colonoscopy level of a county to determine how things are voting.

04:24:55.660 But, yeah, Trump wins.

04:24:59.920 Starting to look that way.

04:25:01.020 Yep.

04:25:01.500 Starting to look that way.

04:25:02.480 it's been looking that way for a while they're looking that way for a while it's been very

04:25:05.960 consistent it's not like it's going like that it's been it's been steady so the doors have

04:25:11.120 closed for harris there's just really nothing left now yeah i mean uh she she hasn't at any

04:25:18.020 point in the evening led either in electoral college votes or in the popular vote at no point

04:25:24.700 so why all of a sudden would that shift when we've got tiny uh you know margins of difference

04:25:32.340 with a few votes left to count

04:25:34.600 in a handful of states.

04:25:36.620 She just can't overcome this

04:25:38.340 lead that he's

04:25:40.860 built up.

04:25:43.020 Yeah, I mean,

04:25:44.780 I'm going to say it. We're looking at four years

04:25:46.820 of President Trump, assuming nobody

04:25:48.860 gets to him.

04:25:50.780 Well, we're going to see a

04:25:52.740 President Trump.

04:25:54.300 How hard are his ears?

04:25:57.420 I don't know.

04:25:59.160 I guess to anyone,

04:26:00.560 Well, there it is.

04:26:04.340 The giant Western Standard election desk.

04:26:07.680 No, just based on the consensus of the experts in the United States, the major networks, the pollsters, it's done.

04:26:17.660 It's President Donald J. Trump, the second non-consecutive two-term United States president.

04:26:27.020 i'm just uh sneaking a peek at your screen there cory does it look like he's entered the room no

04:26:34.220 okay uh they're not there's a packed room but uh and they're they're pretty pumped up but no

04:26:41.420 indication that he's entering the room quite yet um i'm sure there'll be a lot of spinning lights

04:26:46.300 and fireworks uh yeah they're they're all looking pretty tired but that's getting out east as well

04:26:50.540 those faces we're seeing they've been up a long time this is getting pretty late for them

04:26:54.460 They'll wait until 5 in the morning if they have to

04:26:59.080 I won't

04:26:59.860 By the way

04:27:03.220 Brian and David

04:27:04.400 You can politely message us

04:27:07.380 Privately if you like

04:27:08.320 If you decide it's past your bedtime

04:27:10.820 And you want to pack it in

04:27:13.500 You've been extremely generous with me

04:27:15.160 With your time

04:27:15.480 I'm going to continue to milk

04:27:17.400 Every ounce of viewership 1.00

04:27:19.320 Out of your brains

04:27:20.400 As long as you are willing 0.99

04:27:23.080 And we'll quit when President-elect Trump enters and takes the stage

04:27:31.880 But we'll keep you as long as you like

04:27:33.520 But if you want off, just send Nigel or myself a message

04:27:36.460 And we'll allow you to make a graceful exit from the evening

04:27:40.800 Anything you've been wanting to say, by the way

04:27:47.560 Either of you, Brian or David

04:27:49.400 what's that i think i think what's going to be interesting now is how big the senate uh win is

04:27:57.540 and how big the house win is you know if you've got if he comes in and and it's uh you know

04:28:03.060 speaker hakeem jeffries you're gonna have a lot of battles going on with speaker mike johnson and

04:28:07.860 you've got uh the senate as well it's going to be two years of extraordinary pace around a lot of

04:28:15.520 the issues that they want to tackle and and look at and i think um you know i i really think that

04:28:23.040 musk is very serious about the um government efficiency mandate and i think kennedy is very

04:28:30.480 serious about the health mandate so so i think you know two years of uh outside in reset of

04:28:38.720 government will be interesting i think the other theme that's going to be interesting

04:28:41.680 is what does this mean for Canada and Canada's relationship to the United States?

04:28:48.320 I think a Trump presidency is going to have implications for we are currently the worst NATO deadbeat.

04:28:53.600 We're the one country that breaks both NATO rules at this point in terms of R&D,

04:28:58.900 proportion of R&D and proportion of GDP spent on security.

04:29:05.320 We're outside the Australia, UK, US submarine warfare piece.

04:29:10.460 our arctic strategy is considered a joke um and i think that under a trump administration

04:29:17.420 they've made a point under bob lighthizer that they do bilateral deals and i don't think canada

04:29:23.100 is in a good position right now under uh under trudeau and the team there so i think there's

04:29:28.220 going to be a mandate for the federal government of canada coming out of this to send a team that

04:29:33.820 will have to include premiers from places like alberta to try and figure out what to do um

04:29:40.140 to set the table for what we have to do next instead of be told so uh i've got a question

04:29:46.940 as a general question to everyone tonight uh kamala harris is not addressing her supporters

04:29:55.100 in the country uh this is an unusual thing to do uh but hillary clinton did it i figured it 0.89

04:30:03.180 because she was in tears. She was absolutely convinced

04:30:06.760 of both the righteousness of her cause and

04:30:10.820 her destiny to victory.

04:30:15.980 I think Kamala thought she was going to win, but probably not

04:30:19.200 as sure, because no one thought Trump could win. The fact that

04:30:23.200 he did win means that there was a possibility he could win again. So I

04:30:26.420 doubt Kamala was as convinced of the certainty of her victory

04:30:31.040 as Hillary Clinton had been.

04:30:33.320 But Hillary Clinton declined to address her supporters in the country

04:30:36.880 the night of her loss.

04:30:39.020 Kamala Harris is not doing it as well.

04:30:42.660 I mean, I don't think she actually has to concede defeat tonight

04:30:47.580 because, you know, there's mail-in ballots to come.

04:30:52.140 I mean, there's a small sliver of a chance, highly, highly improbable,

04:30:57.900 but there's a small sliver of a chance, maybe.

04:31:01.040 So, but to not come out and thank the people who voted for you, to make a generic, you know, she's the queen of generic talking point statements, come out and say, well, you know, we're going to wait until it's done, but, you know, I will respect the result regardless.

04:31:19.280 Not that Trump did that, but that was her big thing.

04:31:24.060 That was her big thing.

04:31:26.260 I don't know.

04:31:26.980 What is the significance of Kamala Harris being the second Democrat in a row to lose to Trump and not even have the guts to face the cameras the night that it doesn't go their way?

04:31:42.920 well it's singularly graceless isn't it that's uh you you you do that for the sake of the people

04:31:49.640 who put the money the effort and all the commitment into your campaign um in a way it kind of tells

04:31:58.520 you why it was a good thing that you didn't choose these people because deep down that's the kind of

04:32:04.440 people they are well yeah i mean it's unfortunately class and dignity have been lost a lot in

04:32:10.200 politics in this last eight years and i blame trump a bit for that but all the same it doesn't

04:32:15.320 mean they can't be better and you don't have to concede but you can't when you've got a room a 0.97

04:32:20.020 full of gathered of supporters even if they're disappointed they busted their ass for you they 0.64

04:32:24.380 are standing there waiting for you they want to see you even if you've lost and you don't have

04:32:29.060 the grace to at least come in and say thank you to them and good night um it's a sad end maybe

04:32:35.160 i'll send beyonce in yeah do you think she'll sing yeah you know i i've won elections i've lost

04:32:42.920 elections and you know one's a lot easier to speak to the room than the other put your man up and you 0.98

04:32:50.680 do it you bite the bullet because guess what the people who busted their ass knocked on doors for 0.97

04:32:56.040 you hammered in signs into the frozen ground for you they worked they deserve at least a thank you 0.99

04:33:01.800 They deserve a, we fought the good fight, even if we didn't win, it was worth doing.

04:33:10.720 You know, your own people, your own people deserve that.

04:33:13.860 And I don't think she has to concede tonight.

04:33:15.760 I mean, Trump is actually now up to 181 electoral college votes expected.

04:33:25.060 He's 270 called, but he's up to 281 leaning and called.

04:33:30.160 Uh, I don't think it's going to be close enough for anything else to pull it away. Maybe I'll eat my words, but she doesn't have to concede tonight. There's, there's still enough.

04:33:41.160 Look, I think this is the legacy of basically, you know, Hillary Clinton and the Democrats never accepted the legitimacy of Trump's victory.

04:33:54.880 Trump never accepted the legitimacy of his defeat.

04:33:59.420 We're now going to see the Democrats again put to the test whether or not they are going to accept the legitimacy of the process that they have participated in.

04:34:09.080 You see, I think that I'm sorry to say that I think part of the reason she is not appearing is it's fine to say, well, she doesn't have to concede tonight.

04:34:19.180 If she appears now, thanking her supporters and so on, I think most people will read that as a concession.

04:34:30.540 And I think she's not prepared to do that yet.

04:34:33.520 and i i'm i'm i'm worried that part of what's happening is we are preparing yet more uh internal

04:34:42.200 strife over the legitimacy of uh america's democratic process and that worries me a lot

04:34:48.640 more than whether or not there are some disappointed supporters in the room

04:34:52.000 can you be a bit more explicit brian or do you not want to go there

04:34:59.580 What are we talking about? Challenging ballots, challenging elections, different counting polls?

04:35:09.980 Well, I mean, I'm not sure that it's going to be quite that dramatic.

04:35:21.960 It may simply be, you know, that they're going to pass doubt on the legitimacy of the victory because there were, you know, that Trump employed improper means or, you know, intimidated people or whatever it is.

04:35:40.120 It was Putin.

04:35:40.680 uh or it was putin and russian disinformation or uh you know look if uh if if trudeau can

04:35:49.080 suddenly turn the foreign interference thing from uh china is interfering in the liberal party into

04:35:55.480 uh india is interfering in the conservative party i mean anything is possible right

04:36:01.800 uh nico uh pull up my side screen for a minute i'm going to tell you what the uh

04:36:09.080 uh, the interference was, it was peanuts. It was peanuts. Peanuts swayed it. Uh, you know,

04:36:19.740 as I said, you know, years from now, we'll be talking about how the execution of a squirrel

04:36:24.300 may have swayed this. I mean, yeah, we'll joke about it, but it became a thing and we're in

04:36:32.120 the age of the meme, or Instagram reels, memes, and podcasts are what drive political discourse.

04:36:44.780 And, and it's fun. And, you know, I, I just didn't see much in the way of memes from the

04:36:52.060 Harris campaign. It was when it was, it's always contrived and stilted. I know I saw like Stephen

04:36:57.640 Gilboa, the Canadian

04:36:59.160 carbon minister

04:37:00.980 trying to meme about Danielle Smith

04:37:03.880 or Nancy was trying to 1.00

04:37:05.300 I'm going to put this to you

04:37:09.620 David

04:37:10.420 why

04:37:12.400 still after all these years can the left

04:37:15.880 not meme

04:37:17.000 they can't

04:37:19.860 do it, they've had

04:37:21.240 decades and

04:37:23.160 they just can't do it, why can the left not meme

04:37:25.540 Look, there's, there's so many interesting things about psychology. When I was working on the, you know, our campaign with Jason, we won a landslide. One of the things that struck me was the left is very good at, if you sort of say there's a hearts and minds strategy, left's pretty good at appealing to the heart with people, you know, and this is why wokeness has kind of had the effect that it's had.

04:37:49.600 there's a there's a way of sort of they make the argument to victimhood they make the argument to

04:37:56.160 empathy they make the argument to you know you know what i mean so every it's it's funny that

04:38:01.760 the the right has kind of got this very well-defined sense of almost like a scorched over

04:38:09.420 version of irony because we've been in the trenches for so long you know when when you have

04:38:15.440 to and this was actually true what's really interesting i think that you know when you when

04:38:20.240 you look at dissident art and you look at what the you know i was living next to china for 15 years

04:38:26.240 and ran some ran a company that had offices in china and the chinese were exceptionally good

04:38:31.840 at creating quirky funny memes and ways of beating the state in a hundred small ways that were

04:38:38.240 exceptionally smart and savvy and funny um and i just think it kind of goes with the territory if

04:38:43.840 you think you're outside of the cultural mainstream in some way you become pretty good at poking fun

04:38:49.280 and making sure that you sort of have that edge and i think that's there's a little bit of uh

04:38:54.560 punk to being conservative now because it's contrarian my son's 15 and what's funny to me

04:39:00.480 right now is he and his buddies think it's very funny to punk everything that's slightly woke

04:39:06.480 because the school is sort of the official kind of uh you know dogma uh of and it's to the left

04:39:14.560 and so you've got if you give that crowd you know uh a chance to create a meme they're gonna come

04:39:20.720 up with something pretty funny because they can so i think there's a little bit of a you know

04:39:24.960 where we sit in the culture right now the uh the punk rock side is definitely on the conservative

04:39:30.080 side of the table so that's why i think we're good at memes i think the left is bad at memes

04:39:35.360 also because they take themselves extremely seriously because they care so much about the

04:39:40.880 fact that they want the state to solve these problems and and we don't we don't think that

04:39:46.400 we think that there are other social institutions humans create that are more important than

04:39:49.920 government um started with the family but you know other things too the church communications

04:39:57.440 the media uh the free market the economy like you know we think government's okay but we don't

04:40:03.280 think that it's a disaster if government doesn't do its job i think for people on the left the

04:40:08.880 government is the point and so it's hard for them to have fun talking about losing it or uh you know

04:40:14.640 the stakes i think just strike them as far too high that's my cultural analysis for you since

04:40:20.800 you hit me with that weird question yeah plus david don't you think that they're just censorious

04:40:25.680 and puritanical yeah glorious and puritanical people have no sense of humor yeah sense of humor

04:40:32.800 to be good at meaning yeah look i i think the cons i think conservatives you know it's our

04:40:39.200 feature is also our bug you know like we love the debate we love the fight everybody thinks they're

04:40:45.280 right everybody you know we could if we could we'd replace a premier every three months in

04:40:50.320 alberta right but you know in alberta we nearly do yeah i know i know thank god she won 90.1.5

04:40:57.120 percent but you know out there there's 8.5 plotting the future right now so you know we've

04:41:02.720 got this competitive streak and i think that does create a little bit of you know market forces to

04:41:09.520 have to come out with a way of uh explaining ourselves and figuring things out but we're up

04:41:14.240 against a culture that's to your point brian um woke culture does not tolerate dissent it does

04:41:21.280 not like debate it it believes that there's a dogma and it's it's worse than any other dogma

04:41:26.640 because it's deeply uh you know it's a secular substitute for spiritual dog it's horrible

04:41:32.640 but it yeah you can't have fun this is actually an interesting point that the harris campaign

04:41:38.080 started out with this theme of joy and then the last three weeks it was hard to see a smile on

04:41:44.480 anybody's face unless it was sort of this fake kind of uh laughter you know i i saw the obamas and i

04:41:51.280 I think Barack Obama is an incredible communicator, so is Michelle Obama.

04:41:55.840 But they were literally scolding people in large groups. There was nothing nice about it. They

04:42:03.360 could see the power slipping through their fingers. And I'll tell you, one of the biggest

04:42:09.920 losers from this is the Barack Obama cohort that's been running the Biden administration and was 0.89

04:42:16.640 kind of running harris as their heir apparent uh they are the big losers this time around um and 0.97

04:42:24.000 uh good riddance so i uh speak in a meeting here uh nico pull up let's pull up my screen here

04:42:30.160 so uh mark uh cuban uh one of the major surrogates for the harris campaign uh

04:42:40.240 seemingly conceding on behalf of the campaign uh saying congrats uh real at real donald trump you

04:42:46.240 He won fair and square.

04:42:48.500 Congrats to Elon Musk as well.

04:42:50.920 Hashtag Godspeed. 0.99

04:42:52.840 And then just some shit poster here. 0.99

04:42:55.500 It has this picture of Kamala Harris. 0.99

04:42:58.720 What do you mean Mark Cuban conceded on my behalf?

04:43:02.960 He's mansplaining.

04:43:04.600 Yeah, he's mansplaining a tour.

04:43:07.500 So there's a few things I've packaged from here.

04:43:12.800 Again, general question to anyone who wants to pick it up.

04:43:16.240 Um, I've had a theory in the Canadian context that I think is increasingly applicable to the American context now that women are being Canada's had one female prime minister didn't go well, but she was doomed to failure. 0.98

04:43:37.340 anyway. She was coming at the end of the Mulroney government. That ship was going down no matter

04:43:42.540 what. And they said, let's put a lady in charge. And she sunk the ship. But the ship, the ship 1.00

04:43:51.300 was already half full of water. She maybe took it down further than anyone else thought possible 0.94

04:43:56.020 from a majority government to two seats. But, you know, I've been thinking about

04:44:02.220 the damage that this is doing potentially to female political leaders 1.00

04:44:09.080 in the context of, you know, thought about Chrystia Freeland taking over. 1.00

04:44:14.140 And I thought, what better way to make sure we never have an actual female prime minister 1.00

04:44:19.960 who can govern for more than a few months than to put Chrystia Freeland in charge 1.00

04:44:24.300 and let her go down with the ship for the liberals this time? 0.99

04:44:27.620 um so i i don't i don't think these are exactly fair comparisons they're not apples and apples

04:44:35.900 to the american context because hillary clinton was not president you know because it's a different

04:44:42.600 system but uh hillary clinton went down now kamala harris has gone down they've both lost 0.94

04:44:50.180 to what the democrats claim is the most sexist misogynist racist terrible guy ever who should 0.88

04:44:55.500 never get elected what they claim is the most defeatable republican of all time and now two

04:45:01.980 women have both lost to him um i guess so the kind of the question i'll put broadly is between

04:45:12.100 clinton and harris have they done damage to the idea that america's gonna get a woman president

04:45:20.440 at some point oh and it will at some point just not this year um you know there's so much talk

04:45:27.880 among women who operate in that area at that level about about women it's what they're fixated on 1.00

04:45:39.800 if you had listened to if you kamala harris and nobody else you would have got the idea that this

04:45:46.120 was the election about abortion, the ultimate women's issue. 0.99

04:45:51.760 So they would say to you, well, you know, I think it was CNN had a screen up earlier.

04:46:02.500 They'd done a poll on what were the major issues of the election to women, 1.00

04:46:07.680 and it wasn't abortion. 0.52

04:46:09.320 Abortion was about 14%, but the economy was 30%, and there was something else that was 20%.

04:46:13.760 So, you know, when you get too fixated on yourself and you're looking inwards instead of outwards

04:46:21.260 and thinking about other people, it is possible to draw the wrong conclusion.

04:46:25.400 So this is kind of a hugely significant moment for women, but it wasn't.

04:46:35.760 Is that happening right now?

04:46:37.000 No.

04:46:40.300 I'm waiting on...

04:46:41.900 Everybody's waiting on Trump.

04:46:43.760 yeah uh oh i had no idea nancy pelosi was was running again i guess she's done being speaker 0.97

04:46:52.680 but i did not know she was actually still running for housey okay well she's in uh democratville

04:46:57.800 california so yeah she's fine uh of course the cryptkeeper yeah uh she's the best she's the best

04:47:04.360 professional investor in uh america yeah yeah uh if there was a pelosi index uh i would uh i would

04:47:12.100 buy it every time. So I'll just put the same question out to anyone else who wants to pick it

04:47:18.760 up. America's going to have a woman as president at some point. I guess the question is, will a man

04:47:29.560 take the job as the first woman president? Well, yeah, I mean, Trump can just change his,

04:47:33.900 what he identifies as halfway through, and he can become the first woman as well.

04:47:37.120 Wouldn't that drive him nuts if he declares himself the first woman president? What would 0.98

04:47:41.240 they do but even on social media you know i kind of glancing at x while things are going and

04:47:46.380 everything and i saw somebody you know ranting on oh america you rednecks you aren't ready to 0.95

04:47:51.060 elect a woman to lead you yet and i i had to correct them quickly on their note they weren't

04:47:55.540 ready to elect kamala yeah and you guys had better distinguished between that and don't

04:48:00.160 label kamala as your representation of all women or you will hold women back look at the record

04:48:05.960 across the Western world of first actual, like non-Kim Campbell, one and a half month

04:48:13.860 interregnum leaders, but real leaders. Margaret Thatcher. Now, I hate to mention her because she 0.71

04:48:24.340 ended so terribly, but Angela Merkel was like not a terrible treasonous socialist when she began 0.94

04:48:32.000 as Chancellor of Germany. She was a

04:48:34.180 reasonable, competent

04:48:35.880 managerial...

04:48:37.920 She was fine, but she was a Conservative.

04:48:39.840 She started as a Conservative. She did not finish 0.91

04:48:41.780 as... She finished smoldering 1.00

04:48:43.880 the Conservative movement in Germany.

04:48:45.500 And then we've got... What's her name 0.53

04:48:47.980 in Italy?

04:48:49.940 Meloni.

04:48:51.040 Yeah.

04:48:52.380 Was she the first female Prime Minister

04:48:56.000 of Italy?

04:48:57.320 She's the first I can recall.

04:48:59.060 I believe so.

04:48:59.580 I mean, they went through a whole whack of governments for a while.

04:49:01.800 Maybe they've had a Kim Campbell. 1.00

04:49:02.620 There might have been a couple come and go, yeah.

04:49:04.240 Italian, you know, Italian pizza parliaments.

04:49:06.520 Maybe they had an interregnum female prime minister, I can't recall. 0.99

04:49:09.840 But I think she's the first of any significance, if not the first period.

04:49:14.140 These tend to rise from the right, because they're female leaders 1.00

04:49:17.800 who don't define themselves solely by being a female leader. 1.00

04:49:23.040 They're a woman who... 1.00

04:49:24.760 Well, the right expects merit.

04:49:26.360 There's a leader of the country who happens to be a woman. 1.00

04:49:28.540 they're not a woman who happens to be the leader of a country and that's the difference like good 0.99

04:49:33.480 luck getting men to buy into that especially in the in the era of woke identity politics 1.00

04:49:39.380 where you know it's uh you're a piece of crap because you're a white male and if you don't 0.99

04:49:45.400 vote for this person you're a bad person that's that's not a compelling reason to vote for someone 1.00

04:49:50.320 one of the one of the principal fault lines in this whole election for the democratic national

04:49:56.280 committee and kamala harris is nikki haley is a very accomplished person more accomplished than

04:50:01.320 kamala harrison in many respects you know governor south carolina she went through a very tough

04:50:06.600 nomination process she lost to a tough guy donald trump um she came out and endorsed him she went on

04:50:13.080 the stump for him she uh holds her own you know kamala harris was sort of from the very beginning 0.97

04:50:19.880 sort of started life as a sugar baby to willie brown you know she was given uh positions by him

04:50:27.080 she became part of the uniparty state in california and after winning the senate seat was appointed 0.89

04:50:34.280 as biden said because he would only appoint a woman who was black and i think that the fact

04:50:40.600 that she was coronated instead of nominated is a huge problem so i i think to be fair to women if

04:50:46.760 if there is a you know future nikki haley or a georgia maloney or margaret thatcher you know

04:50:54.680 my guess is the next person the the woman that does become the president united states will 1.00

04:51:00.920 definitely come from the republican side because of that because i don't think that somebody like

04:51:06.120 kamala harris i mean she was a lightweight and it came out when they tried to run the campaign by 1.00

04:51:11.640 keeping her scripted rather than allowing uh rather and she wouldn't allow herself to get out

04:51:16.740 and it's David I think that's a column you should write uh because I I think in all probability the

04:51:22.320 first woman president unless Biden just bows out to let her get her portrait on the wall and she 1.00

04:51:28.660 gets to be a Kim Campbell kind of thing yeah but see then it won't matter that that would be a Kim

04:51:32.160 Campbell yeah it'd be purely tokenistic and and that's what woke progressivism is largely about

04:51:38.180 is tokenism symbolism that kind of thing but that happens or not the first female president of 1.00

04:51:45.620 substance i think is likely to be a republican i don't know who that's going to be vicky haley

04:51:51.380 uh it could i don't know who but i i think that's a column i think that's something you should maybe

04:51:56.900 uh explore in a column in the next uh day or two okay if we could just make assignments right here

04:52:04.100 on the air that's right i just had a text from a reader who says do you think that there is a

04:52:11.300 significant risk that there will be another assassination attempt um i'll be shocked if

04:52:18.020 there isn't yes the democrats have raised the temperature to the law like if you believe

04:52:25.780 he is the end of the republic do you not have an obligation to kill him you do yeah like 0.51

04:52:31.940 Like a God-fearing, red-blooded American has the obligation to pick up a gun and whack him if they think he is what the Democrats say he is. 0.99

04:52:43.280 So, yeah, I'd be shocked.

04:52:49.600 So Fox News has just declared Trump will be the 47th president of the United States.

04:52:55.460 And like Grover Cleveland, he gets to actually have a couple numbers, not side by side.

04:53:00.740 he gets to be 45th and 47th president of the United States. Fox projects that Donald Trump

04:53:06.840 will win Wisconsin. Oh, that's funny. So this is from multiple projections.

04:53:15.000 We've got Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Nico, let's, so just one moment here. Let's bring up

04:53:25.080 the screen Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that has Trump at 291 electoral votes

04:53:35.640 well above the 270 he needs I'm just I gotta say I'm glad it appears to be decisive I mean

04:53:43.480 we've had enough of just room for court challenges for questioning for worrying about it

04:53:48.400 so I mean this is going to get to a point where there's no sense diving into all that because it's

04:53:52.940 not like he could flip one state and change the result or flip one county. This is pretty

04:53:57.440 clear. You know, there's just not room. I mean, I can't underestimate people's capacity

04:54:03.480 to keep trying, but I think for the most part, people, they might not like it, but they're

04:54:08.520 going to accept it. This is where it's going.

04:54:09.640 Okay, so it's been cool. He probably will take the podium very soon to speak now, but

04:54:14.580 in a brief period of time, do you realize that the United States of America will celebrate

04:54:21.700 the 250th anniversary of its revolution,

04:54:26.140 1776 to 2026.

04:54:29.460 And it will be a Trump presidency

04:54:32.440 as opposed to one of the woke left.

04:54:37.780 I'd like to ask either David or Brian,

04:54:44.000 what do you think that's going to be like?

04:54:47.300 do we still have you gentlemen yeah look i'll comment on that i think um

04:54:55.500 i think it's extraordinary i i you know i i have to say this one of the things that i admire about

04:55:01.560 the americans as a canadian and uh you know my parents are british is you know we conduct we

04:55:07.460 try and conduct ourselves decorum up here i i guess the best way to put it they litigate

04:55:12.540 absolutely everything openly all the time and they have had civil war they've had a war of everything

04:55:20.860 like like you know they're up for the fight um in the the culture war is there in full swing and i

04:55:28.460 do think there's there's something profound about the shaping of the nation from the very beginning

04:55:34.380 being being sort of you know birthed in blood or whatever the the language is about that

04:55:39.500 But I do think that they have sort of defined themselves as a nation that had to fight for, to become and to create what they've created.

04:55:50.120 And I think there's something kind of symbolic about the fact that it's a Trump presidency that will be celebrating that moment, because it seems like sort of the, you know, the dynamics of this election in this moment, there seems to be a fight less less in the physical realm more in terms of what this culture will be and what it will be about and how that will be shaped and defined.

04:56:14.540 So I think we sort of traded the war that founded the country, Revolutionary War.

04:56:19.960 They've gone through the Civil War.

04:56:21.640 I think we're in a very interesting time right now that is a very real culture war.

04:56:26.280 And somehow those battle lines seem to be drawn.

04:56:28.660 And Trump seems to me to be the right kind of figure to be playing that part.

04:56:37.680 Let's just have a little bit of fun for a moment.

04:56:40.540 Nico, can you pull up my screen here?

04:56:43.080 From the Babylon Bee,

04:56:44.760 one of the best sources of news

04:56:47.180 during the television.

04:56:48.340 American unburdens itself from what 0.90

04:56:50.500 has been.

04:56:54.340 Love it.

04:56:56.960 And from what has been.

04:56:58.600 And from what might have been.

04:57:01.360 Oh,

04:57:02.120 God. I mean,

04:57:04.520 you know, this is the problem

04:57:06.400 with just

04:57:07.780 appointing someone.

04:57:11.200 With, like,

04:57:12.400 One of the great strengths to me, one of the great strengths of the American political system is the primaries.

04:57:20.300 And it's perhaps the single most thing I'm envious about the American political system of that I wish we had here is primaries.

04:57:28.320 That nominations are not completely controlled by the party. 0.98

04:57:33.000 You know, you could have an insurgent on the right wing of the conservatives like a Ron Paul, and he sits there and he's just a pain in the ass for the conservatives all the time. 0.95

04:57:40.460 and he's a voice of conscience and he might be, but you can't get rid of him. 0.91

04:57:45.340 They can try and get rid of him, but you can't because there's a primary

04:57:47.480 and the people in his district keep putting them there.

04:57:49.200 And the Democrats can have a communist like AOC or Bernie Sanders

04:57:55.180 and they can't get rid of them.

04:57:56.540 And they're there as the left-wing anchor of that party

04:58:00.060 and they might want to get rid of them, but they can't because it's up to the people.

04:58:03.440 And, you know, and then they found the short circuit. They found the short circuit here. And that is to run the primary with the geriatric guy who can't think because he's the incumbent and the incumbent, other than Lyndon Johnson, has always got through. 0.85

04:58:25.140 and then you just pull essentially a partisan coup and it shows you the value of the hardening

04:58:36.180 that because you know there how many great candidates have there been that we thought

04:58:40.160 and they got into the primary process and they shriveled Rand Paul man I thought Rand Paul was

04:58:46.340 the greatest thing I still think Rand Paul is great Howard Dean Howard Dean yeah like Democrats

04:58:51.740 loved Howard Dean. Guys like me loved Rand Paul. And they got the primary system, they got the

04:58:57.460 primary process and the light just shriveled them up. You need that hardening process. You need to

04:59:03.180 put them in the forge of the primary because you get out there and it turns out you can't think

04:59:08.900 or put together a coherent sentence. A guy like Donald Trump is going to eat you for lunch.

04:59:14.260 yeah the primary just makes you say who you are and that's really the thing that people started

04:59:23.780 to learn about kamala harris awfully close to the actual election date when it came i think that

04:59:30.660 may be something of what we were talking about earlier i said kind of where did the where did

04:59:35.220 the harris team lose it well they would have never had it to lose if they had gone through a proper

04:59:41.620 primary.

04:59:44.380 James Carville must be

04:59:46.260 shaking his head

04:59:48.060 sadly and thinking, I could have

04:59:50.300 stopped this, but they wouldn't

04:59:52.160 let me.

04:59:55.620 There's still

04:59:56.400 four

04:59:57.580 key seats in play for the Senate

05:00:00.600 right now, and the Republicans

05:00:02.820 are ahead in all four

05:00:03.940 with like 88%,

05:00:06.760 93% showing, like

05:00:08.620 Hode.

05:00:08.940 uh let's uh nico let's pull up the let's see are we sharing here

05:00:15.020 okay yeah nico let's pull up the senate here

05:00:19.300 all right so yeah right now we're at uh 52 republican 48 democrat uh but those five that

05:00:31.660 remain like like let's say we're going to get shiggy in montana that's i think that's done

05:00:36.620 and they're already counting on the 52.

05:00:38.620 There's seven that are still,

05:00:41.320 that's odd.

05:00:43.320 Or well, among leaning,

05:00:44.560 there's no toss-ups.

05:00:46.020 There's leaning.

05:00:47.880 There's one Republican leaning,

05:00:49.640 five Democratic leaning.

05:00:51.600 Those were leaning in the polls,

05:00:53.280 but those are now being led.

05:00:55.180 If you look at,

05:00:56.060 if we tap on Pennsylvania,

05:00:58.000 the 93% of that votes in

05:00:59.860 and McCormick is ahead

05:01:01.040 by I think two points right now.

05:01:03.780 Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.

05:01:05.440 Yeah.

05:01:06.620 so you know the poll was saying he would lose by a couple points he's now running ahead and that's

05:01:11.580 getting pretty close to getting called same thing hovday in uh that's how you pronounce his name

05:01:17.020 hopefully in wisconsin um is running ahead 88 called and i think he's ahead by two points

05:01:23.420 right now too so you know i i'd sort of said 54 but also uh you know michigan and uh brown

05:01:32.460 in nevada i think are uh they're they're all contending uh and they're all slightly ahead of

05:01:37.820 the democrats that could be that could be one of the biggest stories of the night actually

05:01:43.100 um if you end up with a bulletproof senate majority yeah uh it's looking increasingly

05:01:51.740 like that could be i i guess a lot of it will depend on the makeup of those senators how many

05:01:56.220 Many of them are kind of, you know, more centrist, Republicans versus hardcore.

05:02:04.500 You know, how many can you afford to bleed away?

05:02:08.520 But it looks like they're going to take it.

05:02:11.040 Let's look at the House here.

05:02:14.120 This one's looking a bit closer.

05:02:17.040 But 197 confirmed Republicans or called Republicans with 209 total leaning, 147 called Democrats, 210 leaning.

05:02:34.200 The leans are almost tied, 210 Democrat, 209 Republican.

05:02:39.960 But there's 16 toss-ups still.

05:02:42.140 uh i don't know gentlemen uh i'm looking for opinions on this the house is really going to

05:02:49.920 matter especially elon musk is going to cut two trillion dollars out of the budget uh well you're

05:02:55.280 probably going to need both houses have any chance of getting that through that's that's uh that's

05:03:00.900 not even a once in a generation thing that's like a once in america thing um uh i'll be shocked if

05:03:07.900 anything like it happens. But I don't know. This is looking closer than I think considering

05:03:13.960 the huge Trump wave we're seeing tonight and that the fact that the Republicans already held the

05:03:20.640 House. Any thoughts? Brian? We got to bring Brian into the stream here. Brian's... Hold on,

05:03:30.080 Brian, you're free.

05:03:32.920 Okay, thank you.

05:03:34.720 Look, I thought going into the election that there was a really good chance that the Republicans would lose the House.

05:03:43.460 Not by much, but it's always been, the last couple of elections, a fairly finely balanced thing.

05:03:50.240 I think there is no, I think, obvious majority in the House for a major restructuring of spending in Washington.

05:04:06.300 And since the House is the really key chamber with respect to money matters, I think Elon Musk may find his ambitions to be a little bit thwarted.

05:04:24.540 The other thing I'd say about the Senate is, yes, I think that the Republicans are going to do much better there than we had expected.

05:04:33.520 they might get as many as 54 senate seats but remember the filibuster rule uh and you know

05:04:42.480 it takes 60 60 votes to beat a filibuster and um that means that even if the republicans have a

05:04:51.360 majority if it's uh if it's south of 60 uh it doesn't it it it gives them the majority but

05:04:58.640 but it doesn't give them the whip hand in the Senate. 0.91

05:05:01.560 I think it's going to be south of 60.

05:05:03.420 I don't know if any of you are good enough at this to tell me

05:05:08.300 when's the last time any party had 60 or more senators. 0.99

05:05:12.240 Did Obama once have something close to it?

05:05:15.420 I don't think so.

05:05:16.580 I certainly couldn't say so.

05:05:19.600 I cannot recall the last time any party had 60 seats.

05:05:23.080 I think that's going to make that $2 trillion cut difficult

05:05:26.940 is that it means that there's a military base in somebody's state. There's a corrupt agricultural

05:05:35.020 program in somebody else's state, and it's the old log-rolling thing. I'll vote for yours if

05:05:41.020 you'll vote for mine. That's what gets these things set up. When you've got to try and take them apart,

05:05:46.860 good luck. Well, and the unspoken rule, I think a lot of Canadians don't get this at all.

05:05:53.420 that there is an unspoken trade-off in Congress, which if you increase military spending, you

05:06:00.860 increase social welfare spending. That's the deal across the parties. And so I think Trump is very

05:06:10.460 strong on a strong defense, strong on national security issues. He wants to meet the Chinese

05:06:16.900 who are building up their military capacity. If he wants to get that through Congress,

05:06:24.580 he's going to have to give on social welfare spending. And between those two things, social

05:06:30.340 welfare and defense, you've got the lion's share of the budget right there.

05:06:35.780 Yeah. And the worst of it, Brian, as you well know, is that you can stop spending on defense,

05:06:41.460 but boy you can't stop spending on social work there well and but if you've got a a a president

05:06:49.140 who wants to see more spending on defense uh he's going to have to give on uh on social spending

05:06:55.780 yeah that's what i'm saying once you once you've raised the uh the social spending you can never

05:07:00.740 bring it down again defense you can rise and fall on the perceived threat yes all right so that has

05:07:09.620 the it's a long game but it does fundamentally change the the state of the national finances

05:07:17.140 i think we're already well on the way in that here in canada but uh um certainly that's one of the

05:07:24.020 irritating things they're going to have to deal with down there well you know back back to this

05:07:28.820 idea that uh you know trump is some kind of dictator who's gonna run roughshod over i i yes

05:07:35.460 fine he's he's won a handsome victory in the electoral college he's going to be the president

05:07:40.660 but you know the the the genius of the american system is really the the the wide distribution of

05:07:47.780 power amongst so many institutions and trump is simply not in a position to dictate in washington

05:07:56.180 what's going to happen he's going to have a lot of prestige a lot of power for a year or two uh and

05:08:03.300 but he's going to have to make a lot of compromises.

05:08:07.460 He is not going to have it all his own way.

05:08:10.140 I see the comments on the side of our screen here.

05:08:14.660 Any imagine what Mr. Trudeau would be thinking right now?

05:08:20.320 Mr. Trudeau is as happy as he can possibly be

05:08:23.320 because he wants to run the next election against Donald Trump,

05:08:26.620 not against Pierre Polter.

05:08:28.400 Hmm.

05:08:30.420 What would that look like?

05:08:31.460 He's been praying for a Trump victory.

05:08:33.940 Really?

05:08:34.880 Absolutely.

05:08:36.000 I think that's part of their Hail Mary book.

05:08:38.220 I don't think it'll work.

05:08:39.840 No, I don't think it'll work.

05:08:41.400 I'm just telling you that that is the strategy in the Liberal Party in Ottawa,

05:08:47.940 that they are going to run not against Pierre Folliver,

05:08:51.200 they're going to run against Donald Trump and just say Pierre is simply Trump's representative in Canada.

05:08:56.960 I'm not saying it's going to succeed, but that's going to be the strategy.

05:09:00.240 Okay. I want to just pull back to the map for a moment here. So here's where we're at. Trump has won every swing state so far that's been called.

05:09:14.300 He won North Carolina. He won Georgia. He won Ohio. He won Pennsylvania. He's leading well in Arizona.

05:09:25.740 Oh, they just called Wisconsin for him. It's not even close now. It's not even close.

05:09:32.900 Wisconsin, let's take a look at what's up in there.

05:09:36.960 Wisconsin, 93% of estimated polls reporting 51.1 Trump, 47.4 Kamala Harris.

05:09:47.520 That's pretty strong for Trump.

05:09:49.500 Now, the one not called yet, or there's two not called yet.

05:09:54.480 Oh, did I just, I just got rid of the map.

05:09:57.020 Hold on.

05:09:57.920 Let's put it back on.

05:09:59.640 Michigan.

05:10:00.940 Let's look at Michigan.

05:10:03.080 Michigan, 77% estimated reporting.

05:10:06.360 This one's not been called yet.

05:10:08.020 There's only two that have not been called.

05:10:11.440 Michigan, 50.7%.

05:10:13.500 Trump, 47.4%.

05:10:15.880 Kamala Harris.

05:10:17.300 Again, he's likely to take it.

05:10:18.960 Let's look at the needle machine on New York Times.

05:10:26.740 Michigan, 73% likely Republican.

05:10:31.160 He doesn't need any of these at this point.

05:10:33.160 He's good.

05:10:34.680 He's good.

05:10:36.360 But Michigan looking strong for Trump.

05:10:40.760 Let's take a look at Nevada. 1.00

05:10:43.880 Nevada, you beautiful bastard. 1.00

05:10:47.980 You are annoying on election night. 1.00

05:10:50.420 Why you do this, Nevada?

05:10:51.920 But Nevada's looking pretty strong for Trump.

05:10:54.300 75% reporting, 51.2% to 47.2%.

05:10:59.480 So let's come back to the big map here.

05:11:04.080 so uh at this point it's kind of how much is he going to rack up the score but he yeah he just

05:11:11.320 he just took wisconsin like that was a solidly democratic state until hillary clinton uh biden 1.00

05:11:18.560 took it back not by a lot and trump took it back again but uh based on where things are going

05:11:25.880 based on where things are going.

05:11:35.160 Michigan, we had Michigan and Nevada.

05:11:39.360 Trump gets to 312 electoral votes

05:11:43.080 to Kamala Harris's 226. 0.92

05:11:47.020 It's not a blowout, but it's damn decisive. 0.98

05:11:50.180 Damn decisive. 0.97

05:11:50.840 Um, I, this, I think this is, uh, maybe Corey, you can pull up, uh, maybe compare that with 0.99

05:12:01.120 the electoral vote, uh, 2016, uh, Trump and Clinton.

05:12:06.860 Um, I think this is bigger, but I'm not positive.

05:12:10.980 So maybe, maybe throw that on me.

05:12:12.540 Uh, maybe one of you can correct me.

05:12:14.020 Uh, how does this compare with, uh, Trump's 2016 win against Clinton?

05:12:18.060 i think this is more decisive

05:12:22.320 you want to elaborate like what do you think what are the numbers in front i i i i i don't recall

05:12:34.580 is is uh uh electoral college uh total but what i do recall from from that night was uh you know

05:12:43.680 we were down to the short strokes and he won pennsylvania and there weren't that many states

05:12:49.820 left to call and pennsylvania was what put him over the top and i i just don't think he had

05:12:55.400 uh that there were enough states left in play for him to have reached uh this kind of number but

05:13:01.380 uh that's just uh he was 304 has anybody got the has anybody googled what is uh 304 yeah okay so

05:13:11.940 I'm not saying he's going to get 312

05:13:14.600 maybe he doesn't get Nevada

05:13:16.760 and that would bring him to

05:13:18.920 306

05:13:20.940 so essentially tying

05:13:22.260 but I think he's going to get Nevada

05:13:23.660 it looks like he's probably going to get

05:13:26.580 Michigan so this would be expanding it

05:13:28.240 and very importantly let's

05:13:30.440 go back to the needle

05:13:32.860 here from the New York Times

05:13:34.740 he is

05:13:38.360 he's on track to win the popular vote

05:13:41.320 And that's something for a Republican.

05:13:44.900 Now, for those who'd say, like,

05:13:47.280 yeah, Democrats always win the popular vote,

05:13:48.940 they're the legitimate president.

05:13:50.620 You gear your campaign to the system.

05:13:55.460 The liberals in Canada haven't won the popular vote

05:13:57.740 for, like, two or three elections.

05:14:02.000 Because the liberals are smart.

05:14:03.460 They're not trying to win the popular vote.

05:14:05.000 The popular vote, hey, sorry to say it, guys,

05:14:07.880 doesn't matter.

05:14:09.420 The system matters.

05:14:10.660 You're playing in the system.

05:14:12.180 Liberal promised to change the system, and then they realized, well, the system is getting the majority.

05:14:15.940 It works quite fine, thank you very much.

05:14:18.100 But you play with the system.

05:14:20.740 If the American president was elected by popular vote, Republicans would change their strategy.

05:14:25.860 Maybe they win a popular vote more often.

05:14:27.920 But they don't play to win popular vote.

05:14:30.900 They play to win the electoral college vote.

05:14:33.800 But either way, Donald Trump seems to be up 1.2% for the popular vote here.

05:14:44.480 Yeah.

05:14:45.360 And, yeah, Michigan's at 73% for Trump.

05:14:48.600 Nevada's 79% for Trump.

05:14:50.520 Wisconsin, 81%.

05:14:51.920 Arizona, 82%.

05:14:54.160 Pennsylvania, 85%.

05:14:55.900 Georgia, North Carolina, also swing states, but also they're 100% now.

05:15:00.140 They're just completely done.

05:15:01.380 And I'd be very surprised if Trump doesn't win any one of these swing states.

05:15:06.580 He's going to win them all, I think.

05:15:08.760 And that's going to leave him with 312.

05:15:17.620 My back's going to make it until the Cheeto gets on stage there. 0.99

05:15:23.400 All right.

05:15:24.340 And I'm not sure my battery is going to carry me through to his speech.

05:15:29.460 i think my phone's about to uh honk out on me gentlemen so yeah uh you know um

05:15:40.020 uh okay uh now just take it for a moment i'm gonna see if i get any estimate on how long trump's

05:15:44.580 gonna be uh if it's gonna be too long uh i mean like we're we're well over time we are well we

05:15:51.700 have given an hour and a half to it so look you go ahead brian um if you need to go then

05:15:59.460 I think you've been very gracious to us and given us a whole four or five hours yet.

05:16:06.120 So our compliments to you, and we'll be seeing you back again on one of our shows here quite

05:16:12.520 soon.

05:16:13.520 I know Corey here is interested in having you on his show, and of course, you and I

05:16:18.280 have already done a few.

05:16:20.280 um i before you go i i know that you did tell me once that you thought that trump was going to win

05:16:32.200 it seems you have a powerful gift of prophecy so are we all going to make money out of this well

05:16:42.680 well i i didn't i didn't bet in the betting market i should have uh but i i will say that uh i i

05:16:48.760 predicted he would win by between 50 and 60 electoral college votes so uh my my prediction

05:16:55.160 wasn't wasn't that accurate uh but you know the only thing that matters is did he win or not uh

05:17:02.440 um i i think the next conversation we have to have is so what's the significance of this trump

05:17:11.000 victory uh obviously we have to think about that for canada uh and you know we're not americans

05:17:19.480 we didn't vote in this election uh america believe me my my institute is open to washington office i

05:17:27.640 i get my nose rubbed all the time in the fact that americans just don't give a damn about canada 0.78

05:17:33.480 uh they're not even entirely sure where it is uh and um uh that's that's that's the

05:17:41.800 important conversation that uh we have to have now that we have the facts and we're not just

05:17:46.920 speculating uh there there are going to be massive issues for canada and for nato and for ukraine

05:17:56.280 and for china uh as a result of what we now know about the the uh the the profile of power in

05:18:04.520 washington for the next i think uh you know what uh we've been waiting for trump to come on but

05:18:14.040 he's not and i mean we're uh we're now 20 minutes after midnight mountain standard time so uh and

05:18:23.080 Man, you two have been well over the clock, and our two last guests, you know, it's not like, you know, we're at a party, and you're like the guys who won't go home, and I'm like, hey, you want me to call you a cab?

05:18:37.700 I'm like, it's kind of the reverse.

05:18:40.340 I'm like, you guys want to call a cab?

05:18:42.020 I'm like, oh, come on, one more beer.

05:18:44.060 One more beer, guys.

05:18:46.680 But we've been extreme.

05:18:50.960 We have the result.

05:18:51.940 and so I'm happy calling it there

05:18:54.200 I would have really liked to stay on

05:18:55.960 so all our viewers

05:18:58.100 who

05:18:58.720 want to watch Trump

05:19:01.460 tune into CNN or Fox

05:19:04.180 I really recommend MSNBC

05:19:06.240 because I think they're going to have

05:19:07.700 you know how they'll see their faces

05:19:10.200 well you know

05:19:10.780 you know how they'll like especially on American channels

05:19:14.140 they'll have like a

05:19:15.860 sign language translator I think they'll just

05:19:18.160 be a lot of this

05:19:19.500 You know, Derek, Derek, it is so ungracious to gloat.

05:19:26.460 Yeah, yeah, it is.

05:19:28.280 But, you know, allow me a little bit.

05:19:30.540 I don't even really like the guy.

05:19:31.860 I just like the reactions to him.

05:19:33.580 That's really it.

05:19:35.880 So I want to thank Brian Lee Crowley.

05:19:39.600 He is managing director of the McDonnell Laurie Institute,

05:19:43.720 a first class think tank that I have just a world of respect for.

05:19:48.660 the man and his institution and the work you guys have done uh thank you brian and uh i want to thank

05:19:55.780 uh david nightleg uh columnist for the western standard uh former senior member in the alberta

05:20:01.060 government and international businessman of mystery uh you guys have been uh just fantastic

05:20:06.980 thank you very much thanks thanks so much what a great night yeah um i think we've had one yeah

05:20:13.140 And Nigel Hannaford, our opinion editor.

05:20:16.000 It was a pleasure.

05:20:16.820 Top notch.

05:20:18.100 Corey Morgan, senior Alberta columnist.

05:20:21.920 Of course, Dave Naylor, his Wi-Fi kind of kicked out.

05:20:25.940 I can see him.

05:20:27.700 He's getting his jacket on to leave the newsroom right now.

05:20:30.220 He's quitting early.

05:20:31.160 Quitting early, Dave Naylor is.

05:20:33.340 But Dave Naylor has done a great job.

05:20:35.780 Nico Abote, our broadcast editor.

05:20:40.020 You guys don't see him.

05:20:40.840 He's behind the camera.

05:20:41.720 uh but he he's just done if any of you were early members of the western senate you remember

05:20:48.460 our last u.s election coverage four years ago you'll just know how good a job nico has done

05:20:54.460 in improving our game here so uh thank you very much nico and of course uh guys extra people

05:21:01.800 extra far behind the camera james fink minor and michelle cundy uh in our operations department

05:21:08.260 just did a fantastic job.

05:21:11.800 And actually, you know what?

05:21:13.340 I think Judy,

05:21:15.620 Nigel's lovely wife,

05:21:17.440 who has just done a great job

05:21:19.500 in keeping spirits up.

05:21:21.580 Keeping spirits up.

05:21:22.780 I'm making the odd phone call

05:21:24.220 when things didn't work.

05:21:25.960 Before you're all gone,

05:21:27.900 I've got to say it.

05:21:30.060 You've got to support independent media.

05:21:32.440 The media in Canada

05:21:33.500 is controlled by the federal government.

05:21:36.080 Now more than 50 cents on the dollar of almost every reporter's salaries in Canada comes from federal taxpayers and Justin Trudeau's generacy on your behalf.

05:21:48.540 The Western Standard is one of an extraordinarily small number of genuinely independent media in Canada that do not take Justin Trudeau's bribery money.

05:21:57.440 If you want to see more like this, if you want to support independent media, you need to step up yourself, be a real capitalist, and pay it yourself, not through your taxes.

05:22:07.020 Go to westernstandard.news, click on subscribe, it's only $10 a month or $100 a year.

05:22:12.180 You get through that pesky paywall, and you'll be supporting one of the only genuinely independent media left in Canada.

05:22:18.680 I am tired.

05:22:20.320 I am going home.

05:22:22.300 My staff are tired.

05:22:23.780 They're going home.

05:22:24.880 And you guys can come in, I don't know, 9 o'clock.

05:22:30.880 Yeah, yeah, you can come in that late.

05:22:33.620 If I'm awake, I will.

05:22:35.120 Yeah, no, I think we're going to take a bit of the morning off.

05:22:39.260 Thank you all very much for joining us tonight.

05:22:42.720 God bless.

05:22:44.200 Sam Brown right there, 48.1 to 47.2, 80% in of Jackie Rosen.

05:22:49.200 How much do you do?

05:22:50.140 But news are understanding that candidate quality matters.

05:22:53.240 In this cycle, Republicans in the Senate races in particular fielded some pretty darn good candidates

05:22:59.360 that gave them a shot in states where Republicans often face an uphill battle.

05:23:04.600 And the fact that, you know, it looks like it won't be just a squeaker.

05:23:07.460 There might be a little margin there for Republicans when the Senate is tested into that.

05:23:11.180 Let's see what Wisconsin is, guys. Can we put up Havdi in Wisconsin? 0.89

05:23:14.180 Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome President-elect Donald J. Trump, First Lady Melania Trump

05:23:29.680 and the Trump family, accompanied by Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, Second Lady Usha Vance,

05:23:38.460 along with friends and campaign staff.

05:23:44.180 Thank you.

Western Standard - November 06, 2024

US Election Live Coverage

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