In this week's panel show, we discuss the by-election results in Toronto, including the victory by Tory candidate Don Stewart in the city's hotly contested Toronto West byelection, and the impact it had on the rest of the race.
00:03:35.120And, you know, I'm sure we'll talk about the consequences.
00:03:37.220But, you know, to say it's historic is accurate.
00:03:40.840Yeah, Nigel, you know, by-elections come and go.
00:03:43.060I mean, people like to read too much into them quite often because it's often where somebody will park a protest vote or there'll be a limited turnout or things like that.
00:03:51.740But this was more than your typical by-election.
00:03:54.680I mean, again, just because that seat was so traditionally safe, I mean, this is an indication of a much bigger issue when the Liberals can't hang on to that.
00:04:04.680Well, you know, this is where you need a tourniquet to stem the bleeding, and I just
00:05:06.740But they threw everything at it, and they still lost.
00:05:11.800It was quite amazing, but, you know, as you said, the next day the Liberals got up, they
00:05:16.700saw no evil, they heard no evil, and it looks like they planned to carry on as is.
00:05:22.140They didn't see the writing on the wall, Nigel.
00:05:24.260Well, yeah, they certainly have not admitted seeing the writing on the wall.
00:05:28.480I cannot believe that Mr. Trudeau in his private moments is sort of shaking his head and thinking, well, what just happened here?
00:05:36.520You know, he said, obviously, this was not the result we wanted.
00:05:40.740But, you know, they gave away the where I think is their weak point in their thinking, because his reaction was, well, we must we will never stop working and fighting to make sure you have what you need.
00:05:56.760We, the government, will make sure you, the peasant, have what you need.
00:06:03.780And when he talks about working, he's actually talking about new programs to spend money,
00:06:09.380which you, the peasant, will pay for.0.90
00:06:12.360You see that echoed in the remarks of Chrystia Freeland, who, just hours before the vote,
00:06:19.300tried to draw the line between conservatives and liberals.
00:06:23.820And she called conservatives cold and cruel and small, and then went off on a tangent
00:06:32.780about collective values. Liberals have values, we have principles, okay? Values is a nice
00:06:40.140feminine word. People like the idea of values. But you know, this country was started by people0.80
00:06:48.220who went out as individuals and did things you know the the man who went out on the prairies
00:06:55.820and broke ground and cut down trees and picked rocks and then produced a crop of wheat he was
00:07:03.020not part of a collective he was not working with the government trying to get away from
00:07:07.180the government in all likelihood she has that idea that it all comes together at the center
00:07:14.140and is doled out to you and that is what has been rejected in this by-election because the results
00:07:22.620the the homeless crisis the affordability of housing crisis the inflation all of these are
00:07:32.220a consequence of government from the center and she has she doesn't get it he doesn't get it the
00:07:39.420The voters did get it, and they said no.
00:07:41.480In what world do you wake up and not think, okay, maybe it's time for me to step down?
00:07:46.660Is he so delusional that he thinks he can change it around in 18 months?
00:11:35.180Now it's time for you to stand behind me.
00:11:38.220Whether we can develop that theme and make it sound convincing, but don't forget that in 2015, the liberals had been knocked down to 34 seats.
00:11:51.940And it was the power of that name recognition, the Trudeau, the nice hair, the sort of the brightness, the sunny ways, the odd socks.
00:12:02.360All of that struck a nerve, a chord, with the voting public.
00:12:07.280I don't know why. To me, those seem like trivial things. But anyway, it worked. And as a consequence, you have more than 160 Liberal MPs in the House. So the difference between 34 and 160 is the number of Liberal MPs who owe their parliamentary pension to Justin Trudeau.
00:12:29.120Let me ask you this. You know more about things than I do. How much of a runway does he have where it becomes point of no return, he has to stay and lead into the next election? How much time do they need to have a convention, a leadership campaign and get the new leader in?
00:12:46.060They need a year. If he's still there at Labour Day, I think he's going to be there in the election.
00:12:51.520So, I mean, another interesting aspect of this, too, though, was the vote left the Liberals, but it didn't go to the NDP.
00:12:59.380They didn't look for a progressive option. In fact, the NDP lost some support in this.
00:13:05.120And that's got to make, you know, Mr. Singh a little bit uncomfortable.
00:13:09.060I mean, if you're not the progressive alternative to the Liberals, what indeed are you?
00:13:14.280I think, you know, you look at what's happened in Toronto the last few months.
00:13:18.060The crime out of control on the subway and murders and shootings, the weekly mass anti-Semitic demonstrations by the anti-Israeli groups, you know, 10 cities, just 10 cities everywhere in Toronto, the poverty, the increase in the lineups at the Toronto Food Bank, incredible stuff.
00:13:41.240I mean, life in Toronto has decayed in the last year, and there's no doubt about it.
00:13:46.280And I think the voters sent a message saying we're fed up with it.
00:13:50.700Well, and that's another aspect of this particular constituency.
00:13:55.260I'm sure it impacted this to a degree.
00:13:57.280It's one of the highest Jewish populations in all of Toronto there.
00:14:00.720They make up a good segment of the population.
00:15:15.100and made to put up with these shocking scenes,
00:15:19.880which are cast in support of an appalling act of murder,
00:15:26.100rape, violence, October the 7th, you know, gosh darn it.
00:15:30.060How can you not stand with that beleaguered population, but the Liberals didn't.
00:15:36.060And they recognized that towards the end. I mean, it was no coincidence, a last minute move, because they've been getting pressure to have that Iranian regiment declared as a terrorist organization for years.0.94
00:15:45.060And they've dug their heels in, they refused to do so, refused to do so.
00:15:49.060On the eve of the by-election, they thought, well, I'm sure their internals were shown, we are in some serious trouble here.0.93
00:15:54.060Well, we've got to throw a bone to the Jewish population and show that we will stand up for them.0.59
00:15:58.060them and suddenly they finally declared them as terrorists. Too little, too late.0.99
00:16:02.060Oh, it was. And it was shown for what it is, a crass political movement or option.
00:16:10.220And the voters knew that. You know, sometimes you can fool the voters, but a lot of time you can't.
00:16:15.740Well, there was a 26-point collapse for the Liberals in that constituency compared to last
00:16:20.060time. So, I mean, again, there's lots of factors, but it's not looking good for them
00:16:23.260across the country, for sure. And getting a little more into Alberta, speaking of
00:16:26.620of an incredible blowout. You got to give the guy credit. Holy cow. I mean, we all kind of expected
00:16:32.400Nahed Nenshi to win the NDP leadership. It was going to be a coronation, but I don't think
00:16:38.060anybody predicted 85% support in such a wide field of candidates. The nearest, you got what,
00:16:45.540more than 10 times the support of the second closest candidate. Boy, he's certainly got a
00:16:51.560doesn't he oh he does i remember on our live show that day uh had a bit of a prediction battle and
00:16:58.040i said 73 percent and uh and uh you and derek thought i was off my rocker and uh and it was
00:17:06.760way higher i think it was 86 80 85 percent yeah he's got he's got the mandate he was looking for
00:17:12.280it shows his massive organizational capabilities it shows what a uh a ground force he can be
00:17:20.120in politics, and he got the job done. It wasn't even close. So now the work begins. He doesn't
00:17:29.560have a seat, so he named an official opposition leader and a deputy. And now I'm sure there's
00:17:35.640going to be a bit of a clear route of political staff as Naheed brings in his own people.
00:17:42.440So it's going to take him some time to get organized and figure out the ways of the world1.00
00:17:48.120in the ndp world and then the you know the fun and games are beginning now he's got to try and1.00
00:17:53.800unite that large tent you know you you say it shows that he's got a mandate
00:17:58.520shows something else too and that is that the character of the ndp has changed evolved if you
00:18:05.080if you want to put it that way that used to be a party of principle not principles that we shared
00:18:13.320around this table perhaps but you knew that these guys would rather be right and in opposition
00:18:21.240than wrong and in power that's just the way they were they do what they could to convince
00:18:25.320people that they were right and sometimes they they made a reasonable showing but for the
00:18:32.120ndp membership to just throw aside all the old stages all the people who had put in their time
00:18:41.000all established socialists, because they thought that this man would actually be able to put them
00:18:47.160in power. Suggest to me that power, for its own sake, is what they've decided they really want.
00:18:54.520It's a different crowd of people that are in the NDP to what they were 30 years ago.
00:18:58.280Well, and now with Nehemiah, he's making it clear he wants to change that party substantially. And
00:19:03.000one of the fundamental things of the NDP, and it's been their Achilles heel in Alberta,
00:19:07.720with Notley is that they are constitutionally tied to the federal entity. I've always rubbed
00:19:15.000their noses in it and said, you know, Rachel Notley is a branch manager for Jagmeet Singh,
00:19:19.640because technically, if there was a real conflict, there never was, they rarely exercise it. Singh
00:19:24.680could override an NDP Premier, as per the NDP constitution. I think they would that would only
00:19:32.680be in a period of crisis where they would do that because it could shatter their party.1.00
00:19:35.720But then she's going to shatter it. Now, anyways, he's making it clear he's going to bring that to
00:19:39.400the members. He's saying, I'll leave it to the members. But when you've just won a leadership
00:19:42.200with 85%, he can get anything done. They're going to decouple from the federal NDP.
00:19:47.720And that's a very substantial change to them. And the former leader, Rachel Notley, even
00:19:53.000you know, over the weekend was speaking out against that. You know, she wants to keep it.
00:19:58.360And Jagmeet actually came to town for the convention. And yeah, Rachel Notley thinks
00:20:04.040it's a very bad idea new leader thinks it's a very good idea so uh you know he's gonna if he
00:20:09.480says he's gonna leave it to the party to decide well he's got 86 000 new members uh all right
00:20:15.080sorry i think it was 86 000 new members 60 some thousand 60 some voted so he's got tens of thousands
00:20:23.880he's got tens of thousands of new members who will vote on whatever he says so he must be assuming
00:20:30.680anyway. You know, there is a real issue with the two of them tied together. I think it's
00:20:36.980not just propaganda from the UCP. There was a case, there is a case in which Kaylin Ford
00:20:44.060was libeled by somebody, so she claims, by somebody related to the NDP. So in the scouting
00:20:53.720gone of suits in all directions, both the provincial NDP and the federal NDP were named.
00:21:02.500And the federal NDP got back, well, it had nothing to do with us.
00:21:06.680They couldn't convince the judge of that.
00:21:08.940And so for now, I think that's getting litigated as we speak.
00:21:14.180But for now, the judicial system says, well, I can't, if there's a distinction between
00:21:20.620these two bodies, I can't see where it is.
00:21:22.560So if you're suing the one, you're suing the other.
00:21:26.000And don't forget who else the NDP is beholden to is the unions.
00:21:31.780Alberta Federation of Labour has a seat on their board.
00:21:34.720Former leadership candidate Gil McGowan ran, couldn't raise a 60 grand, and dropped out.
00:21:41.140But the unions, I don't know whether they still are, Nigel, but there used to be a powerful movement within the NDP.
00:21:47.700And when he was mayor of Calgary, Naheed Benchie really didn't get along with unions.
00:21:51.280Well, our columnist, John Hilton O'Brien, who, to full disclosure, lobbies on behalf of private schools and homeschoolers and anybody, frankly, outside the education system, had a column in yesterday in which he argued quite strongly that the unions were going to be the biggest problem that Mr. Nenshi faced.
00:22:16.040They were reluctant to relinquish the influence that they had.
00:22:21.260Different set of interests to the party.
00:37:14.720Well, again, let's pivot over to ToneDeck, Deaf Politicians, and Mayor Jody Gondek in Calgary.
00:37:22.200You know, quite often disasters can do well for a political leader's future, actually, in ways, if they manage the disaster well.
00:37:30.320But it, Adam Gondek doesn't seem to be, you know, you remember Nenshi during the Great Floods, you know, everybody thought he did a wonderful job.
00:37:40.580He was a super superhero and, you know, was everywhere, every site, every press conference and whatnot.
00:37:48.800The water main break has not been Jody Gondek's finest hour.
00:37:52.900It started as a disaster, and then when she sort of thought it might be a disaster,
00:37:57.460then she threw her communications team under the bus.
00:38:02.020You know, in fairness, I think she has been doing a little bit better in recent days.
00:38:06.540But, you know, a new poll out shows it didn't give her a bump whatsoever.
00:38:09.820And I think she went from 30% support to 26% support, you know,
00:38:16.200cementing her place as the most unpopular mayor in Calgary history.
00:38:22.960But, yeah, you look at other leaders and, you know, crises have made them, you know.
00:38:27.020It goes as far as Churchill and even Nenshi in the floods.
00:38:32.920You're saying she should have gone and bought an anorak?
00:41:56.200This is Bill C-59. You're not allowed to, you know, oil companies aren't allowed to defend themselves and say this is what we're doing for the environment. And, you know, we could end up being thrown in jail.
00:42:11.840Greenwash, right. And Premier Smith has said, well, I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing. If they want to throw me in jail, they can. But, Nigel, there's already been consequences, hasn't there?
00:42:20.880Yeah, that Pathways Alliance has removed a bunch of material from their websites
00:42:28.520in which they were explaining what they were doing
00:42:30.780and how it would be beneficial for the environment
00:42:33.840and how they were trying to meet government regulations and government aspirations.
00:42:39.100But this government, and it's the federal government that we're talking about,
00:42:42.960does not want oil companies, energy companies, to look good.
00:42:48.200and so they're not allowed to say what they are doing that is actually aimed at a solution
00:42:58.380just in case people think better of them because they have been targeted as the bad guys in this
00:43:05.640narrative and they'd better not step out of line and we're just going to have to see
00:43:11.160how rigorous the government is going to be in this i mean the pathways alliance has already
00:43:17.980taken some material down. What happens to us when we say, well, guess what? This company is starting
00:43:25.740a carbon capture project over here in hopes. Are we then part of the, are we affected by this? We
00:43:32.380don't know yet. We don't have to take legal advice. Seems to me it's just another stupid
00:43:36.180environmental law coming out of Stephen Gilbo's department. And I don't know if the federal
00:43:42.140lawyers are asleep but i can't see any court upholding this right and just like the the
00:43:48.520plastic ban and just like all the other environmental stuff that gets thrown out
00:43:52.620if this goes to court it will be thrown out i'm sure i don't have a law degree obviously or i
00:43:57.060wouldn't be here but uh i can't see it staying and then the government will say well you know
00:44:02.800we'll we'll go back and rework it you know hopefully by that time we've got a new prime
00:44:06.640minister and this just goes away you know you say it's an environmental law actually i was more
00:44:11.780thinking of it is part of that suite of information control that this government likes so much.
00:44:17.660The online harms bill, which, as we keep saying, allows people to launch complaints based on what
00:44:25.820a person might say, considering what he said in the past. I mean, that's an absolutely
00:44:31.220remarkable development. It's the minority report world where you predict what people are going to1.00
00:45:31.140If you were to go with a microphone on the streets of Toronto St. Paul's and say, tell me three things that you don't like about the Liberals,
00:45:41.680it probably wouldn't be very detailed, but you would very quickly learn that people don't like them.