Western Standard Opinion Editor Nigel Hannaford and Editor-in-Chief Derek Fullibrand discuss the election, the fallout from it, and the impact on the independence movement in the West. Western Standard is a publication of the Western Standard.
00:04:19.660and you want to come to this later but clearly
00:04:22.300that the depth the division is geographical as well as being um as being political um
00:04:31.260see this is you know in in percentage wise the the conservatives have their best score since
00:04:38.380brian mulroney's second win in 1988. unfortunately for the conservatives the liberals have their best
00:04:44.060score percentage wise since pierre trudeau the first in 1980 his final governor he won a very
00:04:50.860big majority um it's just that the ndp have completely just fallen off the map uh in any
00:04:59.900other election in our modern era if you hit 40 you were assured you had a majority government
00:05:06.060stephen harper won with 39.8 or something just a hair below 40 but you could round it up to 40
00:05:13.740the Conservatives had 41. That should have been a comfortable, not huge, but a comfortable
00:05:19.880majority government. The big story from the night, I think, is the complete annihilation
00:05:27.540of the NDP. Jake Mead Singh coming in third place in his own constituency,
00:05:32.760not even come close to winning his own seat, losing the vast majority of their caucus,
00:05:37.560losing official party status. Nigel, you said it's a minority government. And for the moment,
00:05:43.740It is. But, Corey, I'm not 100% sure it stays a minority government. And not just because Carney could achieve a de facto coalition deal the way Justin Trudeau and Jaymeet Singh had together, but because he might actually formally be able to build a majority, what I'm going to, I'll coin the term, a tactical majority.
00:06:03.700um you've got uh seven ndp mps left that's it uh a lot of them i mean there's going to be some
00:06:12.660hardcore ones who want to go down like it's the battle of thermopoly but some of them are looking
00:06:16.860around thinking the party's over it's very lonely with just seven friends around here um and then
00:06:23.440mark carney is if i'm mark carney i'm making some phone calls saying hey i got a cabinet spot with
00:06:29.620name on it you just got to change the color you're sitting with and i saw there was a cbc interview
00:06:34.820with um what's the name of that uh mp the ndp mp in vancouver um oh no no no it's a notable one
00:06:43.140though yeah uh anyway it was some lady uh ndp mp in vancouver and she was asked blank blank would0.98
00:06:48.820you consider joining cbc yes and uh she was asked would you uh consider crossing the floor and
00:06:55.220sitting with the liberals and she says oh well that's an interesting idea uh well what really
00:06:59.640matters for me is getting results for canadians something to that effect she did not only not say
00:07:04.780no she didn't even hint it might be a no which was her just saying call me carney uh so there's
00:07:12.780at least one who i think is very much um open to the idea uh if she gets the right offer uh
00:07:19.540But, you know, Carney only needs, I think, three.
00:07:23.040He needs three to get a bare, bare majority.
00:10:38.960When Harper was first elected in early 2006, when his cabinet was being sworn in, the press all had to do a double take when they saw a liberal MP walking up, and he was from a very liberal riding Vancouver Kingsway, and he said, yeah, I'm going to be, I think he was like the forestry minister or something like that.
00:11:00.120So they have that guy, but there's also somebody they brought over from the Senate to fill a position as well.
00:13:25.800And there were an insane number, a higher number, a higher turnout in his riding than next door in Nepean where Mark Carney was running.
00:13:38.180I have no evidence that there was foul play beyond the longest ballot initiative where he had 91 candidates where they're trying to swamp the ballot and make it impossible, which is one reason it took forever to count in that bloody riding.
00:13:50.740and those, I think, largely leftist activists
00:13:53.860did not do the same thing literally next door
00:13:56.440in Nepean where Mark Carney was running.
00:14:45.640And the criticism that they offered was that Mr. Poliai had spent a lot of time campaigning in other people's ridings, not enough in his own.
00:14:59.520Well, every leader ever, but a leader in this case with the opposition right next door, with 90 people on the ballot, with all the things that you...
00:15:11.240It's not just during the campaign, it's before as well.
00:15:14.600so maybe there's some truth to that but the other side of it remember that when mr pollier
00:15:22.040originally won that riding in 2004 against liberal defense minister david pratt i believe
00:15:30.280he did it on the basis of superior organization that was where he he was the one who went out
00:15:37.000and door knocked and door knocked and door knocked and sure he wasn't leading a party at the time so
00:15:41.720he had plenty of time to do that uh but it was an astonishing result when it came out
00:15:49.640what who's this guy uh clearly to get 80 turnout somebody has done a lot of door knocking a lot
00:15:57.720of organization but no one in the country got 80 like 80 it was the highest turnout in the country
00:16:03.960mm-hmm by far like all right it's got the vote that's the bottom line
00:16:10.840cory you know this a strong local campaign can maybe boost five percent typically like a good
00:16:17.560strong local candidate five percent if you run jesus christ and your opponent is satan ten percent
00:16:23.960well that's pretty otherwise everyone's just voting the party your problem as an individual
00:16:27.160candidate is you live or die by what your party leader has done but when you're the party leader
00:16:31.000it actually has an inverse effect though he's wearing the party as a candidate uh you know
00:16:36.680as well and nothing accounts for an 80 turnout well when you have opponents throwing everything
00:16:44.020but the kitchen sink into that writing yeah traditionally gets you five maybe ten it doesn't
00:16:48.820get turnout up to 80 nothing accounts for that so how smelly do you think it is i've got no evidence
00:17:22.840But what's odd to me is that, you know, the average share in the country is 63 ish percent.
00:17:28.020I have to look and see what the final is.
00:17:29.260It came close to 70. It's almost a record breaker this time.
00:17:33.000OK, but I want to see I I have not seen any other constituency even approach 80 percent.
00:17:40.380It just doesn't make sense. But you got no evidence beyond that.
00:17:44.560And that's not even evidence. That's that's simply an anomaly that's worth taking note of and then looking into why that happened.
00:17:52.020Well, and whatever happened, the other thing is, though, I mean, what a crippling blow to the Conservatives, because, I mean, they could have painted this as a victory in a lot of ways.
00:18:00.100Hey, they increased the vote count for themselves.
00:20:56.080If he, I mean, it's a huge disappointment not winning, but if he had won a seat, I think he'd be in still a pretty locked position to lead the Conservatives into the next election, whenever that is.
00:21:07.080Losing his seat, it's at least a big one in the negative column on that question.
00:21:12.800How secure do you think his leadership is?
00:21:14.500if he can secure a seat in short order.
00:31:52.140This is going to be a real thing. If this legislation passes, which I have every expectation it will, the independence movement will get the signatures. It will trigger a referendum, which means sometime between a year, year and a half from now, Albertans will vote on independence. This is not an abstract hope or idea anymore. This is a real thing. How was that not the biggest story in the country yesterday?
00:32:17.000They're asking me to explain how the mainstream media doesn't understand Western Canada aspirations.
00:35:33.800I haven't found a good answer because media have been paying attention to the issue of it.
00:35:38.360But, you know, being the day after, maybe they thought it kind of spoils the globe around Carney.
00:35:43.560I mean, there's that old, and I'm going to paraphrase probably, you know, the way things work.
00:35:47.400You know, at first they all ignore you, and then they all mock you, and then, you know, eventually they're going to attack you.
00:35:51.920I think at this point, too, they're at the dismissive stage.
00:35:54.100I mean, as you said, they don't want to take the shine off for their liberal victory in Ontario, and they just don't want to pay attention to this movement.
00:36:02.860They do believe it's just a handful of vocal rednecks, and it'll be up to, I guess, Albertan and Saskatchewan citizens to change or not change what that perception is.
00:36:11.440I want to talk about how the independence movement feels very different right now than any previous iteration.
00:36:18.340Before 2019, I mean, there's only been two pro-openly-independent MLAs in Alberta history.
00:36:25.020I was one of them, and that did not last.
00:36:28.120That was not a platform that was resonating in 2019.
00:36:33.800But after the 2019 federal election, there was the big flare-up of Wexit.
00:36:40.800In large measure, it was a Facebook group in the right place at the wrong time.
00:36:45.540I said the right place at the right time with the right name.
00:36:47.820And then there were some rallies, the Wild Rose Independence Party and Wexit had merged, sorry, so the Freedom Conservative Party and Wexit merged to create the Wild Rose Independence Party.
00:36:58.860And that did creep up into the fairly high in the polls, it got into the low 20s.
00:37:04.280But some of that was also just dissatisfaction with Jason Kenney.
00:37:08.660Support for that crashed down into the low single digits the instant Danielle Smith became the premier.
00:37:14.820um but you know the movement's never had business the significant businesses behind it
00:37:20.660there's something else that's huge this time too that's youth if anybody's hopeless and feeling
00:37:26.100hopeless in canada right now it's the younger generation that's what we saw in the polling1.00
00:37:29.300for the conservatives as well they don't see a light at the end of the tunnel they can't see
00:37:33.220the ability to purchase a home at the end of the tunnel i i was the oddity when i led the alberta
00:37:37.460independence party back in 2000 i was the 29 year old guy but when i'd stand at a podium speaking
00:37:42.820to a room of a few hundred people the average age in that room was probably in the high 60s
00:37:47.780now it's different uh you know there's there's still certainly some some older members supporting
00:37:53.860it but no you i'm going to say that you're going to see a youth movement and that's different
00:37:58.980they've got staying power they've got energy and they need to see a future they need to see more
00:38:03.220than just a policy shift they want to see a path to buying a house raising a family having that
00:38:08.900dream that's supposed to be what's accomplishable and is out of reach now that's the motivator and
00:38:14.500i tell you that just decided that door is shut with with that changing the demographic i think
00:38:19.380some of the people dismissing the independent sentiment had better sit up and take notice
00:38:23.620because it is different this time and you've got the gray hairs like us who do remember the national
00:38:28.100energy program who are as adamant about it as ever but now we've got a whole new generation coming up
00:38:31.860saying well i'm not going to win anything playing through that set of rules over there and i got my
00:38:37.060you know young family i'm trying to get going i'm ready to try something different
00:38:41.860it'll be interesting how that yeah i i'd like to see some pulling on that um because you know
00:38:48.260younger people probably never thought of anything but canada but is that going to start to change
00:38:52.420as the light at the end of the tunnel has just been snuck down if you're if you're canada involves
00:38:57.140a future uh perpetually renting and uh having staycations and uh you know and paying the debt
00:39:04.020for the uh that your grandparents voted to take on yeah and a pension plan that this inadequate
00:39:10.580as it is and as there will be others pointing out uh is not serving you well because you're
00:39:15.220subsidizing another portion of the country with it i think there's going to be again there's still
00:39:20.020some missing factors there's going to be some organization and leadership to reach out and
00:39:24.020point them to say this is your rid out but what's going to be necessary here it's there and i and i
00:39:28.820I have a feeling we're going to get is credible names,
00:39:32.840not just a couple of cranks down on the farm.
00:45:49.320Green Queen May. She's the queen of the Green Party in Canada and has her lone one-person caucus, which really is the only kind of caucus she can manage.0.99
00:46:02.540Poor old Elizabeth May. Yes. Yeah, it's kind of sad.
00:46:07.620So, you know, I was listening to Mark Carney's acceptance speech on the night of the election, and I was struck by the language that he uses.