00:08:57.000By a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covet means.
00:09:11.000What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
00:09:33.000So much of it, it cannot be contained.
00:09:39.000An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's people.
00:09:45.000children even those that are misguided even those that persecute us even the most heinous among us that is what makes us different that is what makes us good
00:10:07.000Ever since I got on this Tito night, ever since I got on the Oseko, ever since I got on a Carnivore night, shut the fuck up.
00:10:31.000Read as many books as you can, learn a language, learn an instrument, get the best grades you can, get into a good school, and just don't mess around.
00:10:39.000You turn like 18, 20, and then just goes at light speed.
00:10:43.000And if you are wasting time, years will go by.
00:10:47.000And you will wake up when you're 25 years old and say, I thought I would have accomplished more by now.
00:10:52.000Why am I still stuck in the same place?
00:10:56.000Let time be your ally by working every single day at what you think you want to be doing in 20 years.
00:11:10.000The servant who received five talents invested it and earned five more.
00:11:15.000The one who received two talents also invested wisely and earned two more.
00:11:21.000But the servant who received one talent went and dug a hole in the ground and hid his master's money.
00:11:28.000When the master returned, the servant with five talents said, Master, you gave me five and look, I've gained five more.
00:11:36.000The master replied, Well done, good and faithful servant, because you have been faithful with little.
00:12:54.000Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
00:12:57.000If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
00:13:05.000People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
00:13:14.000Everybody would say this is illegitimate, this is like a crime.
00:13:17.000But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf.
00:13:57.000After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
00:14:56.000When Israel was under attack, They played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
00:33:43.000One blue spin for man, one giant wave for man.
00:43:07.000What I am not happy to do is have a debate with somebody who has joked about my death, called people who work for me Shabbos Goy race traders.
00:45:53.000I be from the back, she gripping them covers like she on her latest leg She look like she belong on a cover this whole game covered in everything I'm gonna buy a bottle,
00:46:08.000take a banana, but she is not getting wet in rain If he wants to interview Nick Fouetta, get the word out It's undeniable.
00:54:51.000How many souls did you heal off the back of your deal?
00:54:54.000Difference between niggas getting you out of your deal And letting you out of your deal Damn, against your will, how many new names do you got on your will?
00:55:02.000Damn, how many more times is y'all gonna keep calling this soft when it's silk?
00:55:06.000Damn, how many more interviews y'all gonna do just to get ice and chill?
00:55:09.000Damn, they trying to cover it up like a quilt.
00:55:28.000Yeah, yeah I made way too much in a week Must be 250 at least Like the money just grew up a tree Like the money just came in for free For real
00:55:43.000Yeah, and my mama she scanning my knee Like how long you been running the streets For real
00:55:50.000Yeah, she just text me like we in Paris like 200 D For real And I went bought a whip for my brother Same body but two different colors And I might just tell Cogget another Small price if he kept it 100 And I might both go fly out to London
00:58:22.000You about my run, you know what I'm saying?
00:58:24.000As Pluto Banker 21, you know what I'm saying?
00:58:28.000I done put up half what's done is done, you know what I'm saying?
00:58:31.000Two cars in the back, two in the front, you know what I'm saying?
00:58:34.000They so down for me, gotta punt, you understand,
00:58:41.000I just fucked a million off on some fine shit.
00:58:45.000I just fucked a million off on some fine shit.
00:58:49.000I flew 40 bitches out on some fine shit.
00:58:54.000Can't even tell you what day it is I've been in Turkey so long I live in here Can't even tell you what day it is I'm on so many pills, don't know how I made it here Can't even tell you which drug I'm on as soon as I said anything or they claiming it Can't even tell you what day it is Can't even tell you what bitch you be staying at Can't even tell you what day it is She put it right out of purse and she planned it Built on the sheet and she landed Bought a condo up the street and she standing Bring all the freaks to France and Spurt on the Sprenger They wanna play Miles and Tell them To cook a hand on my tan The way we was boxing,
00:59:22.000you'd think we went hand in hand I just ran a million On some slime shit, I just fucked their feelings up.
00:59:29.000On some pride shit, I just fucked Shaneli up.
00:59:33.000On some lie shit, Valley Santana, gon' make them rewind it.
00:59:38.000Diamonds on diamonds and helmets on helmets.
00:59:39.000I'm a big shot where these hoes are around us.
00:59:41.000Talkin' about billions, he talkin' on camera.
00:59:43.000Dickie a 30, ain't nothing but a runner.
01:00:05.000Ice man turn Ice man turn, Ice man turn Like we knew that the tables were Ice man back outside for the greater good Fuck you pussy, but shot out your neighborhood I get mentioned a lot by a bunch of people that I wish I never met We sharing women that I already fucked at the height of my success All you pussy boys losing it and you need to take meds When I tell you dead,
01:00:25.000cause it's ice time, bitch, it ain't the fake fast Ice man turn, what else?
01:02:26.000The United States military began major combat operations in Iran.
01:02:32.000To consign the American empire to destruction while they look forward to a golden age, while they look forward to a century of empire and domination.
01:02:42.000Maybe we can't stop it, but I'm not going along with it.
01:03:20.000When Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel, which started the Yom Kippur War on October 6th, 1973, almost 50 years exactly before October 7th, Israel was almost overrun.
01:03:33.000And the United States was reluctant to provide them with the military support that they needed to defend themselves.
01:03:39.000So, the prime minister of Israel, Golda Meir, called up Nixon and said, If you don't help us, we will nuke Syria and Egypt.
01:18:43.000You're raised by your parents, you go to school, you finish school, then you move into an apartment as a single man or a woman, and you go to work.
01:19:49.000So it's totally fair for us to recognize that the countries around Russia, no, we shouldn't be invading or torturing them or oppressing them.
01:19:58.000And big picture, holy smokes, you do not want the two largest powers in the world, apart from the United States, to get together and align against us.
01:20:07.000Why do you support Israel against Hamas, for example?
01:20:11.000Why do you support America giving them billions of dollars?
01:31:01.000This is the last thing I'm gonna say about it, and then we're, because I don't wanna crash out again for, you know, 100 minutes like I did the other day, but.
01:36:50.000In 2026, in the midterms, we are showing up, and the Groypers are showing up with us.
01:47:54.000In the days after the September attacks, there were countless rumors about strange coincidences surrounding the events.
01:48:01.000One report about a group of Middle Eastern men spotted the morning of September 11th parked just across the river from New York City has not gone away.
02:06:01.000Read as many books as you can, learn a language, learn an instrument, get the best grades you can, get into a good school, and just don't mess around.
02:06:09.000You turn like 18, 20, and then it just goes at light speed.
02:06:14.000And if you are wasting time, years will go by.
02:06:17.000And you will wake up when you're 25 years old and say, I thought I would have accomplished more by now.
02:06:23.000Why am I still stuck in the same place?
02:06:26.000Let time be your ally by working every single day at what you think you want to be doing in 20 years.
02:06:41.000The servant who received five talents invested it and earned five more.
02:06:46.000The one who received two talents also invested wisely and earned two more.
02:06:51.000But the servant who received one talent went and dug a hole in the ground and hid his master's money.
02:06:59.000When the master returned, the servant with five talents said, Master, you gave me five and look, I've gained five more.
02:07:07.000The master replied, Well done, good and faithful servant.
02:07:11.000Because you have been faithful with little, I will put you in charge of much.
02:07:16.000The servant with two talents said, Master, you gave me two, and look, I've gained two more.
02:07:22.000The master said the same, Well done, good and faithful servant.
02:07:27.000You have been faithful with little, I will trust you with much.
02:07:32.000But the servant with one talent said, Master, I was afraid, so I hid your money in the ground.
02:08:24.000Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
02:08:28.000If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
02:08:36.000People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
02:08:44.000Everybody would say this is illegitimate, this is like a crime.
02:08:48.000But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf.
02:09:27.000After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
02:10:26.000When Israel was under attack, They played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
02:36:26.000You might remember that on Tuesday, the Treasury Department, the White House were saying that we were going to have a deal to end the conflict on Wednesday.
02:36:37.000On Saturday, they said there's diplomacy.
02:36:41.000Okay, well, it's Friday and there's neither.
02:36:44.000There was neither diplomacy nor is there a deal.
02:36:47.000And the latest is that Iran and Oman have actually been conducting bilateral negotiations and It looks like they've worked something out, and what they've worked out is Iran gets everything they want.
02:37:02.000The new deal is that, like we talked about on Tuesday, this was the same discussion at the beginning of the week that it is now at the end of the week.
02:37:10.000The deal that is under consideration will give Iran half of the Strait and the inbound traffic that goes into the Persian Gulf through the Strait that will go through Iranian territorial waters,
02:37:23.000and all the traffic going out of the Strait from the Persian Gulf.
02:37:26.000That will cross through Omani territorial waters.
02:37:30.000However, Iran will get to determine who goes in and who goes out.
02:37:37.000They will have control over what ships enter.
02:37:40.000And Iran says they will deny access to U.S. and Israeli ships because they consider that a national security threat.
02:37:48.000And they will also coordinate with all the commercial shipping that leaves the strait, too.
02:37:54.000But it gets better, it gets even better than that.
02:37:57.000Not only does Iran get the whole strait, And they get to veto any ships coming in, but also they're demanding a 7% service fee.
02:38:06.000They're not calling it a toll, but they're saying there's going to be a 7% fee.
02:38:11.000That's 7% of the value of the cargo of every commercial ship.
02:38:30.000Basically, everything they've been demanding from the very beginning.
02:38:32.000And they say these are the only conditions under which they are going to make a deal.
02:38:38.000So, like before the MOU, during the MOU, after the MOU, every part of this conflict, it's the same question, which is how much longer are we willing to let this drag on before we basically accept the inevitable,
02:39:10.000It means we are ending this only on their terms.
02:39:13.000There's no room for us to make any imposition or any insistence on anything.
02:39:21.000And so now that after the latest bout of shooting and firing, now that Iran is still not backing down, they're still insisting on what they want.
02:39:30.000Once again, the question is will Trump accept the deal and walk away?
02:39:35.000Or, out of basically pure delusion, is he going to keep the fighting going for another two weeks or another month and drop more ordinance?
02:39:43.000And we'll be in the same place in two weeks or four weeks as we are now, just like we were four weeks ago in the same position that we are today.
02:39:55.000We'll get into the latest developments.
02:39:57.000And here's the thing as time goes on, it's not even like we're staying in the same place.
02:40:01.000We're actually moving backwards because with each passing day, we have less and less ammunition, fewer and fewer missiles, offensive and defensive missiles.
02:40:13.000And not only that, but we're also running out of oil.
02:40:16.000So, it's not even just that we're treading water or that this is ground to a halt.
02:40:35.000We'll get into the latest, some other interesting developments with the Saudi Pakistan Turkey Defense Alliance, as well as more leaking to CNN about our munitions shortages.
02:40:47.000So, we'll get into every aspect of it.
02:40:49.000We're also going to talk about the birthright citizenship executive order if we have time.
02:40:56.000I mean, we talked a little bit about it last night.
02:41:00.000Last year, in the beginning of Trump's second term, he signed an executive order banning birthright citizenship, and his own Supreme Court shut him down.
02:41:09.000And when I say his own Supreme Court, I don't even just mean a conservative majority.
02:41:13.000I mean literally all the justices that swung the decision were people he appointed in his first term.
02:41:21.000So, if you recall, Trump blocked birthright citizenship with an executive order.
02:41:26.000It was immediately challenged with a class action suit by multiple states, by the Democrats.
02:41:33.000And so, a federal judge issued an injunction and it was considered by the Supreme Court.
02:41:38.000A 6 3 majority in the Supreme Court said that that executive order violated federal law.
02:41:45.000There's a federal statute that says you have birthright citizenship.
02:41:48.000And so, a majority of 6 3 Which included Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, both Trump appointees, they both said this is against the federal statute.
02:41:58.000And then a majority of five to four, with just Amy Coney Barrett as the swing vote, said it's also against the Constitution.
02:42:27.000He's now signed a new executive order.
02:42:30.000And the new executive order is meant to crack down on birth tourism.
02:42:33.000This is one of the ways in which foreign nationals abuse birthright citizenship, where they will intentionally come here in the later term of the pregnancy so that they can specifically have the child on the land, child gets citizenship,
02:42:49.000And this is a little bit of a different category than, let's say, illegal immigration, where they're going to hop over the border, claim asylum, something like that.
02:42:57.000Come here, have a bunch of kids, and then we got to raise everybody.
02:43:12.000In many cases, these are wealthier people from foreign countries.
02:43:16.000And they come here specifically just for the purpose of having the pregnancy come to term so that the child has all the benefits of citizenship down the line, so that they get the visa free travel, they get access to the school system.
02:43:30.000And all the other benefits conferred by citizenship.
02:43:33.000So, the new executive order says that there's going to be enhanced screening by DHS for this at airports.
02:43:41.000And it's great, but the problem is that's already against the law.
02:43:47.000So they're already screening for this.
02:43:48.000That's already something that people are going to get stopped at the airport by U.S. Customs.
02:43:56.000And not only that, but even let's say we're able to eradicate birth tourism.
02:44:00.000I said it last night in 2024, there were 20 to 25,000 births from birth tourism, which is, I mean, Biden brought in 10 million people, as we all know.
02:45:19.000And if they started the deportation machine early this year or last year, or if they did it in the first term, maybe you'd have fewer illegals now than you did back then.
02:47:20.000I've been dropping a lot of bonus content in the group chat.
02:47:23.000It's like you get a bonus show every other day because I'm in there talking about a lot of different topics that I don't cover on the show.
02:47:32.000So if you're interested in that, check it out.
02:49:37.000And then she goes, Never mind, I'll take the $300,000, but we have to do it at my house and you can't smoke cigarettes and blah, blah, blah.
02:49:46.000Now, Andrew Wilson has all these conditions.
02:49:48.000He's like, well, no ad hominem attacks, and it's got to be three and a half hours.
02:49:52.000And so they're bickering about it on the timeline.
02:49:55.000I'm like, let's just make this happen.
02:52:39.000And we're also running out of interceptors that shoot Iranian drones and missiles down.
02:52:43.000And this is a big reason why last week Saudi Arabia begged the United States not to go forward with the attack.
02:52:50.000Because Saudi Arabia has been getting their ass kicked.
02:52:53.000Saudi Arabia has been getting bombed from both sides by Iran's proxies in Iraq and in Yemen.
02:53:01.000And this has been going on ceaselessly for about a week and a half.
02:53:05.000That Iran is being, or rather, Saudi Arabia is being bombarded with rockets.
02:53:10.000From Iraq, launched by the Popular Mobilization Force.
02:53:15.000And not only have they also been bombarded with rockets from the Houthis in Yemen, but the Houthis have also shut down Saudi's commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
02:53:24.000And so not only is Saudi Arabia getting pounded and their oil refineries are getting hit, and even allegedly some targets in the UAE are being hit as well.
02:53:34.000Not only is this happening, so the Gulf is being pinched, they're in this pincer maneuver from Iraq in the north and Yemen in the south, but simultaneously, The Strait is closed by Iran in the east,
02:53:47.000and the Red Sea is closed by the Houthis in the west.
02:53:51.000So, none of the oil is getting out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait, and all the oil that they're piping west across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea, that's no longer getting through either.
02:54:03.000They are having to reroute even that shipping north out through the Suez Canal in Egypt, through the entire Mediterranean Sea, out through the Strait of Gibraltar by Spain and Morocco.
02:54:17.000Down through the Atlantic Ocean and then around Africa.
02:54:21.000This is just to get their oil to Asia.
02:54:24.000Asia is the largest buyer of the Gulf oil.
02:54:27.000And so they're having to take it from the Persian Gulf, pipe it across the peninsula, and now because of the Houthis, send it basically across the whole planet.
02:54:50.000It's already painful, but if the U.S. escalates against Iran and attacks their civilian infrastructure, Saudi Arabia knows there is nothing the United States can do to protect them from Iran's retaliation,
02:55:03.000which will be overwhelming and intense, and it's going to wipe out everything.
02:55:10.000So the Saudis and other Gulf countries are begging the United States to de escalate.
02:55:14.000Consequently, even so is the Pentagon.
02:55:18.000And one of the things we're going to talk about tonight is actually there's a new report out from CNN, the second this week, that says that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. Armed Forces, Dean Kane, is privately telling Trump,
02:55:32.000we have literally no other option besides de escalation.
02:55:37.000And you might remember there was a report earlier this week, also from CNN on Tuesday, and that report said that we ran out of ammunition.
02:55:47.000I believe it was either yesterday or today.
02:55:49.000It says that the top general in the Pentagon is privately advising Trump of the exact same thing, telling him not only should we de escalate, it's actually our only option.
02:56:05.000It says, Over the last few weeks, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Kaine, has privately made clear to top Trump advisors that the U.S. needs to find an off ramp from the war with Iran because military options on the table to escalate the conflict could backfire.
02:56:21.000And air power alone is unlikely to achieve President Trump's stated objectives.
02:56:27.000Which, if you watch this show, we have been saying for months.
02:56:31.000And everyone has been saying this for months.
02:56:34.000Everybody who knows what is going on has been saying the exact same thing basically since March, which is we're not willing to do what it takes to win, which is a ground war.
02:56:48.000In order to achieve our objectives, we're going to have to invade on the ground or nuke them.
02:56:53.000And nuking them is probably off the table.
02:56:56.000And there are ways that we could invade Iran.
02:56:58.000Probably invading the mainland would be suicidal because Iran is protected and insulated by mountains and the sea, and it's booby trapped with mines, and they've got a million soldiers.
02:57:10.000They could probably mobilize five million more.
02:57:13.000It would be a suicide mission to invade the mainland.
02:57:15.000But as we discussed a couple weeks ago, people have said it's maybe plausible we could conduct limited raids.
02:57:23.000On parts of the coast, more likely on the islands in the Strait or in the Gulf.
02:57:29.000But as said in this report, although that's on the table as an option, and that might create conditions where we can impose terms on Iran, that would be far too risky.
02:57:41.000You send Americans to invade the islands, they're going to die by the thousands.
02:57:46.000You might take the islands, but you can't keep them.
02:57:49.000And if you try to, Iran is just going to blow them up.
02:57:53.000They're going to kill everybody on the islands, and there's no way to protect those people.
02:57:58.000So, and I've said this going back to March the things that we could do to win the war, we are not willing to do.
02:58:07.000There's no political will or appetite for it.
02:58:09.000Casualties are going to be too high, far too risky, and probably not even a very high chance of success.
02:58:17.000And what we're doing right now, the air and sea offensive, using the standoff munitions, using Tomahawk missiles, dropping bombs on them from fighter jets, things like that.
02:58:43.000So, the article goes on it says Kaine and other Trump officials were wary of the latest plan late in July to launch new, more aggressive strikes due to concerns about the likely fallout that could come from the escalating conflict.
02:58:55.000Even as the president appeared ready to initially green light what he described as a massive operation.
02:59:02.000The source said, The only ones in favor of the operation were elements of CENTCOM, which is U.S. Central Command.
02:59:10.000That is the part of the DOD or the DOW that oversees operations in the Middle East.
02:59:17.000That source noted that Israel also broadly supported an operation to escalate the conflict.
02:59:22.000So, in other words, everyone is against this.
03:00:06.000And one of the pockets of government that is most heavily infiltrated by Israel is Central Command.
03:00:12.000Within the DOD or the Pentagon, the DOW, Central Command is a hotbed of Israeli influence because Central Command oversees the area that Israel occupies and is preoccupied with.
03:00:25.000So those are the groups that are pushing the war Israel and CENTCOM.
03:00:30.000It says Trump ultimately decided to back off after talking with Middle East allies who told him they were afraid of Iranian retaliation, specifically retaliatory attacks on their energy infrastructure.
03:00:42.000But dwindling U.S. stockpiles of Key munitions were also a factor, as multiple sources said.
03:00:47.000It was a concern that has been raised not only by Kane, but also by golf officials.
03:00:53.000So we now know, and we knew it on Tuesday and we knew it on Saturday, but we now know for a fact why did Trump call off the escalation?
03:01:37.000And increasingly, we can't stop that either.
03:01:41.000So, with all our power, all our might, all of our exquisite weapon systems, our blue water navy, these platforms that we use, like the aircraft carriers, These bases that we have, think about how insane this is.
03:01:59.000You look at the Middle East, the map is dotted with U.S. installations, radar, bases, airstrips, two carriers, how many squadrons of fighter jets, and how many different types of aircraft,
03:03:41.000The U.S. backed down from the strikes on Saturday under the advice of the Gulf countries, as well as our own military, telling us not only is what we're going to do not going to work, it's not going to compel Iran to change its behavior, no matter what we do.
03:03:56.000We could destroy their civilian infrastructure, degrade their defense industry.
03:05:31.000If Iran does not want you in the strait, you can't come in.
03:05:35.000They say the outbound traffic that goes from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea or the Gulf of Oman, they say that will be in Omani waters.
03:05:43.000However, those ships still need to coordinate with Iran.
03:05:55.000They're going to collect a 7% environmental service and other miscellaneous fee, 7% of the value of the cargo that the ship is carrying, although Oman is trying to negotiate that down.
03:06:20.000Iran is also saying that they're not going to tolerate the U.S. and Israel using the strait anymore.
03:06:26.000Iran insists that as a matter of national security, and since they're going to control the northern part of the strait, the inbound lane, they say they're going to keep Israel and America out because the U.S. and Israel have used the Persian Gulf as a platform to attack Iran.
03:06:42.000So Iran says we're now going to close the strait to the U.S. and Israel.
03:06:47.000Iran says they want sanctions off of their oil, the way it was when the MOU was in effect.
03:06:53.000They're calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon.
03:06:55.000They want our bases out of the region.
03:06:58.000They're effectively calling for total surrender from the United States.
03:07:03.000And this is the story on this latest deal.
03:07:06.000It says, While Iran and Oman appear to be nearing an agreement to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian officials are now warning that the deal will not fully reopen the crucial waterway.
03:07:17.000Iran and Oman have agreed that incoming ships will enter through Iranian territorial waters and outgoing ships will exit through Omani waters.
03:07:25.000Such an agreement would formalize Iranian control over the waterway.
03:07:29.000It's unclear whether the Trump administration will accept it.
03:07:33.000A U.S. official told the Washington Post, quote, any temporary routes will be without any impediments, meaning no approvals or permissions and no tolls or charges.
03:07:43.000The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, and no party controls the lanes or the ability to transit through them.
03:07:49.000On Monday, Trump said the talks were Iran's last chance at a deal.
03:07:54.000On Tuesday, he said a lot of progress had been made.
03:07:57.000Iran has denied being in direct talks with the United States.
03:08:00.000The negotiations with Oman, Tehran insists, are independent of Washington.
03:08:05.000The discussions were approaching the final stage, said the Iranian deputy foreign minister on Wednesday, but he cautioned that Tehran still has outstanding demands.
03:08:13.000He said the United States must end its blockade of Iran's ports, address sanctions it imposed on Tehran after the MOU collapsed, resume talks over Iran's frozen assets, and address continued violence in Lebanon,
03:08:28.000where Hezbollah is fighting with Israel.
03:08:30.000He said, This understanding does not mean the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but rather a new and different model.
03:08:36.000Under the new setup, he said a significant part of ship traffic would pass through Iranian waters.
03:08:44.000And so the constant in all of this is that Iran's position has not changed, not once, not from the very beginning.
03:08:52.000Ever since the negotiations for a truce or a ceasefire began, this is what Iran has said.
03:08:58.000They said they want a ceasefire in Lebanon, they want sanctions lifted.
03:09:05.000They're saying they're going to control the strait.
03:09:07.000They're going to have coordination and they're going to charge service fees and they're going to block the U.S. and Israel from using the strait.
03:09:18.000And so it is actually the Trump administration which has been vacillating.
03:09:23.000And Trump has gone, like we've talked about, oscillating between using military force, engaging Iran indirectly through mediators directly with these negotiations.
03:11:29.000Eventually, we're going to need the oil to flow again.
03:11:32.000And as it stands right now, it's being shut down in the Strait, it's being shut down in the Red Sea.
03:11:38.000And then on top of that, we can't even keep our low boil military exchange going, the tit for tat contained conflict with Iran, because we don't have enough weapons either.
03:11:49.000We don't have oil, we don't have weapons.
03:12:04.000We don't make that much or that many missiles or that many interceptors and they're too expensive and we're out of them.
03:12:11.000So, Iran is hoping that they're going to wait us out until our economy crashes, wait us out until we run out of weapons.
03:12:18.000They know we have no military options.
03:12:21.000And so, they're hoping they can basically push us out of the conflict, steer us into de escalation, and they'll be able then to claim the strait.
03:12:29.000And it looks like that's exactly how this is going to go.
03:12:32.000The question that now remains is what the Trump administration is willing to tolerate here.
03:12:39.000And I don't feel so good about this because what all of the logic tells us is very straightforward.
03:12:46.000Everything that we've just reviewed and everything we've talked about up until this point will logically point to the conclusion that we have to be done with this.
03:16:15.000Iran immediately retaliates and they bomb Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and so do their proxies in Iraq and Yemen, and they lay waste to Saudi Aramco, to Qatar's LNG, to oil in the Emirates.
03:16:29.000And what this does is it compounds the effect of the first.
03:20:04.000So, this is why I say it's a bit ominous because all the facts are telling us if we really want to cut our losses, we got to just wrap it up.
03:20:14.000There's nothing more that can be done here.
03:20:16.000We're not going to open up the trade by force.
03:21:54.000And Trump is still leaning towards them.
03:21:59.000Which tells you everything you need to know.
03:22:03.000And here's the deeper problem, because maybe I'm oversimplifying it a little bit.
03:22:08.000The dilemma, which is at the core of it all, is that let's say we do walk away, and let's say we wrap it up, and Iran controls the Strait.
03:22:19.000Well, it's a major strategic defeat for the United States.
03:22:23.000And this is going to have a ripple effect everywhere, in every conflict.
03:22:27.000Every country is taking notes right now.
03:22:30.000Because every country that opposes U.S. interests fears the U.S., and they all want to deter U.S. aggression.
03:22:38.000So, you better believe that every revisionist power, middle power, every militant group in the entire world is going to be buying Iranian drones when this is all said and done.
03:22:49.000In the Sahel, in the Caribbean, in Asia, everywhere you look, they're all going to be studying this and saying, this is a strategy.
03:22:58.000The U.S., even with its nuclear weapons and its 11 aircraft carriers, they got 4,000 warheads, 11 carriers, but they're no match for drones.
03:23:12.000Ballistic missiles, and Iran's in a little bit of a unique position because they have the strait, but they're all studying this.
03:23:18.000So it's going to have a ripple effect.
03:23:20.000But maybe more to the point, if Iran controls the strait and they rebuild their missiles, the real risk that we run is that there's a nuclear breakout.
03:23:29.000And that really puts us at Iran's mercy, that we're going to have to beg them to keep their enrichment at a low level because there's no way that we can enforce that.
03:24:18.000The Pentagon is also thinking if we leave Iran alone, they're emboldened, they've established deterrence, and then there's a possibility that they make a go at a nuclear breakout.
03:24:29.000And we just have to hope that in a year, we're ready.
03:24:33.000We just have to hope that in a year, we have hardened the bases and other installations in the Middle East against Iranian attacks.
03:24:43.000We figured out a cheaper way and a faster way to make interceptors and missiles.
03:24:48.000Maybe we figured out a way that we can.
03:24:52.000Destroy Iran's missile production facilities or something offensive.
03:25:18.000And I think if you are concerned about a nuclear breakout, you got time.
03:25:23.000You got time before they can, even from a practical point of view, excavate their highly enriched uranium, and you have just as much time to figure out how to confront them when we have our third round next year.
03:25:36.000And I think maybe that's the way it's going to shake out.
03:25:38.000If I were to bet, I would say that maybe we accept some kind of favorable Iranian status quo, and we're just going to get ready for round three next year.
03:25:49.000After the midterms, after we have time to source cheaper interceptors, And replenish the stockpiles of existing weapons systems.
03:25:58.000You know, maybe there's another attempt in 2027.
03:26:03.000Because I think that, you know, like it's been said, they could do another bombing run.
03:26:41.000The other major development, which I know some people are going to be asking and wondering about, and this is not having as much to do with Iran, is that Saudi Arabia today signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey.
03:26:55.000This is a follow up on a previous agreement.
03:26:58.000It was a mutual strategic defense agreement initially between Riyadh and Islamabad.
03:27:03.000They talked about bringing Turkey into it.
03:27:06.000Now, today, in Saudi Arabia, the PM of Pakistan and President Erdogan of Turkey came to Saudi Arabia and they formally signed a mutual defense pact, which means an attack on one is an attack on all.
03:27:20.000And this is significant because Turkey is a NATO country and Pakistan is a nuclear power.
03:27:28.000So, this is the real diplomatic revolution that's happening in the Middle East.
03:27:31.000This is something I've been talking about a lot on this show, something that's covered in Foreign Policy magazine extensively, is that there is a new Realignment, a new geopolitical alignment happening in the region.
03:27:45.000This is, like I said, this trilateral agreement was in discussion at the beginning of the year.
03:27:50.000And the significance of it is that Turkey is a formal NATO ally.
03:27:56.000This is a major ally of the United States.
03:28:02.000They have that Article 5 guarantee in NATO.
03:28:05.000And again, Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal.
03:28:08.000So bringing Saudi Arabia into this defensive framework with a nuclear country and a NATO country.
03:28:14.000It really complicates things because it means that let's say Saudi Arabia is attacked by the Houthis, by Iran, by one of their adversaries.
03:28:24.000Well, now it brings Turkey into the conflict, a very powerful NATO country that was part of the F 35 program 25 years ago, has a million soldiers, and has the rest of NATO on the hook.
03:28:37.000And it also brings in Pakistan, which is another major ally of the United States and happens to have a nuclear arsenal.
03:28:43.000And so Saudi Arabia signed this agreement in the context of the Iran war.
03:29:21.000Those are the Iranian aligned Shiite militias that make up the popular mobilization force in Iraq.
03:29:27.000They're also getting hit really hard by the Houthis at the same time.
03:29:32.000And so Saudi Arabia is just getting rockets, short range rockets, rained down on them.
03:29:37.000Their shipping's being targeted in the Red Sea.
03:29:40.000If the U.S. escalates against Iran, now they got missiles coming from Iran, which carry a much greater payload and more difficult to intercept.
03:29:49.000And Saudi Arabia, what they're effectively doing is they're looking elsewhere for a security provider.
03:29:57.000This is another major effect of the war, it has demonstrated that the United States is not a reliable partner.
03:30:06.000Because what we've seen in the past five, six years is that some of these major allies in the Gulf are drifting away from Washington.
03:30:15.000Saudi Arabia and Washington have had this unbreakable bond since the Roosevelt administration.
03:30:21.000But increasingly, with the rise of China, Saudi Arabia has been drifting closer to the middle.
03:30:28.000A couple years ago, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were part of the next class of BRICS countries.
03:30:34.000A couple years ago, the Saudis and the Emiratis acceded to BRICS, their Belt and Road countries.
03:30:40.000And under the Biden administration, the Saudis would not help Biden at all.
03:30:46.000When we were supporting Ukraine's war against Russia and we sanctioned Russian natural gas and oil, we were begging the Saudis to increase oil production to offset the lack of Russian energy that was going to Europe and its other customers.
03:31:10.000It was Beijing that brokered a detente between Iran and the Saudis in 2023.
03:31:16.000And it's only because of Trump and his administration's personal business connections in the Gulf that he's able to have this rich relationship.
03:31:25.000Because Trump doesn't care about the human rights violations, because Trump and his allies like Witkoff, And Lutnik, because they've got allies in Qatar, the Emirates, and Saudi doing business deals, and Trump sells them all these weapons.
03:31:42.000That's why Trump is able to have this special relationship.
03:31:45.000But the problem is China is a provider of investment and credit, and they're a customer for oil.
03:31:54.000And this is the arrangement in the whole world.
03:31:56.000A lot of middle powers, a lot of countries, they're making their decision about where do they align in the emerging Cold War.
03:32:02.000Are they going to lean towards Beijing?
03:32:04.000Are they going to move towards Washington?
03:32:07.000And for a lot of them, the idea is something like we're going to take credit from China while taking weapons from America.
03:32:15.000America is still the only reliable security provider, but China is the only available provider of massive amounts of credit.
03:32:24.000And so you have a lot of countries that are doing both.
03:32:26.000It's like Brazil is an economic ally of China, but a security ally of the United States.
03:32:31.000Many countries in Africa are like this.
03:32:34.000Now, if in the Gulf, the U.S. is unreliable, if we can't Protect Saudi Arabia from the Houthis, the PMF, Iran, and thus Saudi Arabia is looking to create collective security agreements with their regional allies like Pakistan and Turkey,
03:32:53.000then this diminishes U.S. influence in the region.
03:32:57.000In other words, if we can't provide protection, what can we provide?
03:33:02.000We're actually a competitor because we sell oil too.
03:33:06.000So if we can't provide security to Saudi Arabia, what can we really give them?
03:33:10.000Can we sweeten the deal to keep them on our side of the ledger?
03:35:32.000And so increasingly, there's emerging a new regional order of these Islamist powerful countries, Saudis, I would say Qatar would be a part of this, Pakistan, Turkey,
03:35:45.000all coming together to contain Israel and maybe diminish the influence of the United States.
03:35:51.000And these are the lasting effects of the conflict.
03:35:55.000Our alliance with Israel is hurting us with every other one of our allies.
03:36:02.000We could make a decision to ally with Turkey and the Saudis and the Qataris and the Pakistanis, and these would be very useful allies.
03:36:12.000Or we could have Israel, but you can't have both.
03:36:16.000Israel's contention with Turkey in Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria is putting them at odds with them, and it's putting us at odds with Turkey.
03:36:25.000And Israel working with the UAE to destabilize the Red Sea, it's hurting us with the Saudis and so on and so forth.
03:36:33.000So that's the other major development, but that's going to take shape more so, I think, once the conflict with Iran wraps up, because Iran is really then going to be the wild card.
03:36:45.000It looks like right now that the Saudis, Turkey, and Pakistan are hedging against Iran.
03:36:51.000They're really trying to contain Israel.
03:37:29.000There is no political solution, but if you start electing grow hypers, the government will do to grow hypers what they did to the mob in the 80s and the white power groups in the 90s.
03:38:05.000I don't support violence, but it never ceases to amaze me that the advocates of violence never want to do the violence.
03:38:14.000They want somebody else to do it, or they want someone else to advocate for it, or they're not going to do it unless everybody else does it first.
03:38:21.000That's like my program I believe we have to change a conversation, cast a wide net, identify useful people, create a movement, gradually shift politics.
03:38:33.000Your solution is like all of that is futile.
03:38:38.000Okay, then what do you do in super chatting a live stream?
03:38:41.000You know, go out there and do what you think is the correct approach.
03:39:20.000I think, you know, with me, without me, it almost doesn't even matter.
03:39:26.000I don't know if you have had the same experience, but I look on Twitter and I look at the replies under most tweets, and I feel like the conversation has just gotten so unbearably stupid and more stupid than ever before.
03:45:50.000Anyway, I'm just watching my phone die and like, I'm watching my phone glitch and just the screen is just totally cooked while the show is happening.
03:46:02.000Anyway, thank you for the huge super chat.
03:49:54.000I feel like at this point, even any other Republican might have been better.
03:49:59.000And I know that's like a radical statement.
03:50:02.000We have to entertain the notion that maybe another Republican would have been better because Trump is just that incompetent about all this stuff.
03:50:09.000I mean, and people can say, well, give him credit because he's trying.
03:51:32.000That's a big part of it that a lot of our people are not.
03:51:36.000Literate about people, you know, people want to hear about trashing Jews and blacks and whatever, but trade is a very important part of it, also.
03:51:49.000The Whoa, Hunter Biden, can I predict?
03:58:27.000No, I didn't see that about Libya, though.
03:58:28.000They're trying to engage Libya also to put Palestinians there.
03:58:32.000They want to move the Palestinians to Morocco, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, basically all the failed states they're just going to use as a receptacle to receive Palestinians.
03:58:44.000Merchant Marine Groypers says, great spiel about economics industry and power last night.
03:58:49.000As someone in the maritime industry, I'm curious if you have thoughts on the Jones Act waiver.
04:02:08.000Yes, because white people are geniuses, sometimes they start world wars and sometimes they systematically kill homeless people at night and sometimes they molest people.
04:02:22.000But they also invented antibiotics and they also invented automobiles and human flight and rocket ships.
04:02:29.000And so you got to take the good with the bad.
04:07:53.000Did you know that if you invest $7 a day?
04:07:58.000Did you know that if you invest $7 a day in a mutual fund, that by the time you're 72, it'll be worth a million dollars?
04:08:08.000That's how you need to start thinking, my friend.
04:08:12.000There was a study that was done that said that basically, if you don't, what you're doing by age 27 is what you're going to do for the rest of your life.
04:08:22.000That's what you're going to be doing for the rest of your life.