On today's show, Alex Castellanos and Carl Froehlich discuss the latest polling numbers from CNN and the New York Times, as well as the latest from CNN/ORC polls and CNN/WSJ polling numbers.
00:00:00.000This is from Nate Cohen. This is from the New York Times polling that I just showed our viewers here.
00:00:04.260Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likely to respond than white Republicans.
00:00:11.520That's a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it's not much better than our final polls in 2020, even with the pandemic over.
00:00:19.600It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.
00:00:24.500We do a lot to account for this, but in the end, there are no guarantees.
00:01:03.780We know that, but we're going to publish these numbers on the eve of the election anyway.
00:01:07.500You are weighing very heavy on Steve Bannon's mind.
00:01:10.940And he, we're actually going to play this because we want to play, he had a little press conference just hours after he was let out of jail on Tuesday.
00:01:23.400We're going to have hopefully Mike Davis and Boris Epstein and Bill McGinley, three of the prominent leaders in the legal effort to combat Mark Elias.
00:01:34.580Every day after November, the evening of November 5th is going to be Stalingrad where Mark Elias is in court.
00:01:41.500Do you feel good about where we stand on the legal side to secure President Trump's victory as you see it right now?
00:01:49.220We're never going to be as good as Mark Elias, but we are so much better prepared in 2024 than we were in 2020.
00:01:58.580Well, first, we're never going to be, we're never going to be as good as Mark Elias.
00:02:03.580So like they realize that, you know, they're up against a very capable and talented litigator, but also every day is going to be Stalingrad.
00:02:10.400What does it say to you about what they're prepared to do to win?
00:02:22.000Yeah, I definitely seem to be living rent free in his mind and in the mind of the MAGA extremists, which, you know, at one level I take as kind of a backhanded compliment.
00:02:32.080But the more time they waste spending on me and not on attacking Kamala Harris, I take as a win every single day.
00:02:38.480I will note that when they say that they are better, much better prepared in 2024 than they were in 2020.
00:02:43.840I mean, 2020 was, you know, Rudy Giuliani sweating through his hair dye outside of a landscaping company.
00:02:50.520Sidney Powell claiming that there were mythical sea creatures and dead Venezuelan leaders.
00:02:56.100And Jenna Ellis, well, we know how that all turned out.
00:02:58.940So, you know, I take them seriously and I believe that Donald Trump is going to falsely claim victory.
00:03:05.800I think he's going to try to attack the election system and that will include filing frivolous lawsuits.
00:03:12.980But look, in the month of October, according to Democracy Docket, they lost 18 lawsuits in one month.
00:03:19.420So, you know, we have to be prepared and we are.
00:03:22.600But I'm not super worried about their efforts.
00:03:26.200The fear, if he begins to trail in the results, he did it in 2020.
00:03:32.160You know, Steve Bannon was saying he should have come out earlier in the night and basically declared himself the victor and try to, again, cast outs on these results.
00:03:39.980But, you know, I'm curious to get your thoughts on how that plays out on election night.
00:03:45.400If Donald Trump comes out prematurely, tries to declare himself the victor or uses the closeness of the race or the uncertainty of the results to his advantage to to sow that doubt.
00:03:58.540Well, I think it's very likely that if we see patterns that look like last year, if you take a state like Pennsylvania, more reported votes are going to be for Donald Trump on election night than are going to be for Kamala Harris.
00:04:11.220Just because the in-person votes are counted first, rural votes are often reported faster than cities.
00:04:18.080Both of these things lead to Democratic votes being reported later.
00:04:21.320So, you know, he can try to play on this so-called blue shift or red mirage as a way to claim victory.
00:04:47.040And Trump has been saying outlandish things for as long as he's been around.
00:04:51.320And people will believe it or not believe it, you know, not based on reality, but based on what they want to be the truth, if they're going to accept those kinds of statements.
00:05:00.000Well, you know, this is very much like what Trump was doing in the last election.
00:05:05.840Of course, in the last election, much of the stuff was tried to be spread over social media.
00:05:11.640It was unsuccessful because Twitter and Meta were doing more to police disinformation.
00:05:20.320And so I think it's important that word gets out there.
00:05:23.540There are trusted sources of authority.
00:05:25.260When people hear about, you know, claims of fraud, almost always they turn out to be wrong.
00:05:31.240And so people have to take that with a grain of salt.
00:05:33.140But the fact is that, you know, Donald Trump is feeding a Republican base that has been primed for at least since Donald Trump's been on the scene since 2016 to believe that whenever Donald Trump loses.
00:05:44.160This is the primal scream of a dying regime.
00:05:50.880Pray for our enemies because we're going medieval on these people.
00:08:07.120And this is a compliment to this show.
00:08:10.860I want to thank Rob Sigg and Parker Sigg, the Real America's Voice team, our distributors, for giving us more time today but also helping us get people around the country.
00:08:20.100The New York Times, the paper of record, and our beloved republic, right?
00:08:23.680Trump uses 20 playbook to lay groundwork for dispute.
00:08:26.700He and Ally spread distorted reports inviting chaos if Harris wins race.
00:08:33.780And yours truly gets the above the fold photo.
00:08:40.180They hate the fact that this show is the activist show and that this is the leaders.
00:08:46.220The people listening to the show are the precinct strategy people and the leaders in the grassroots that are getting out and putting their shoulder to the wheel to make sure you have a massive effort.
00:08:54.240But also the Cleta Mitchells and the, you know, the Catherine Engelbrechts and the Jenny Beth Martins and all the folks out there that have been working on election integrity along with Mike Davis and Bill McGinley, the Bill McGinley, and Boris Epstein.
00:09:11.080And Boris is with the president, and we're going to try to get him to call in.
00:09:14.040You can't do video because it's too hard to pull down.
00:09:17.660But we're going to be relentless in this.
00:09:19.400The reality we know, and this is my rant last night that I think has got over two million hits, is that the early – when you talk about the physicality of the early vote, the materiality of the early vote, we're in so much better position than I thought we'd be in.
00:09:36.540But I thought – my belief was that on the Sunday of the mass mobilization weekend targeting Tuesday, we have to have a massive get-out-the-vote effort, and we traditionally do better on Election Day voting than they do,
00:09:54.360that there would be a couple of – that there would be a couple of potential firewalls that they had set up, that you saw were going to be huge issues.
00:10:03.980Those have not materialized, and we're going to go through math today.
00:10:07.180Now, all that means is victories within our grasp.
00:10:21.120And it goes to the theme of this show over the last couple of years of which you guys have embraced, and you, the audience, are the prime movers.
00:13:31.680The only thing that matters – and this is why we had in that first clip James Harris, the head of political operations for the Trump campaign over at Fox today.
00:13:40.560It's whatever electorate shows up on Tuesday.
00:13:43.240Now, we have a history of representing on Election Day and being able to take the weights and lines and the problems that happen.
00:13:53.000If that happens, President Trump – if we represent, if we deliver, then we win.
00:16:42.180Find out about the BRICS nations, the central banks, all of it.
00:16:44.680Because we're 1,000% focused right now on just the nitty-gritty of electoral politics on a national level and at the House and the Senate and all of it.
00:16:55.480But we'll be quite frankly very quickly back to the economics and geopolitics of which a Trump victory will do a reset.
00:17:03.580So make sure you go to birchgold.com slash Bannon and do it.
00:17:06.340Okay, I got three of the heaviest guys we got.
00:17:11.540Posobik, Bratt, and Sam Faddis has joined us.
00:17:15.040We are quite Pennsylvania-focused this morning.
00:17:19.440We are going to broaden this out a little bit to more of the blue wall to Wisconsin.
00:17:37.240Matt Boyle is doing one of those massive analytical pieces he always does, which is the best, a huge analytical piece Matt Boyle is doing right now that he anticipates having up on Breitbart as the lead story approximately 1 o'clock today.
00:17:50.700Matt Boyle will kick off the 5 o'clock show when we'll go and do a deep dive and a breakdown on the math of where we stand.
00:17:57.520I want to go to Poso, though, for some framing.
00:17:59.840Jack, you see when the paper of record lays it out like this, because if the New York Times doesn't publish, CNN and MSNBC are basically a test pattern, right?
00:18:11.680So they've got the war room above the fold.
00:18:15.320They're saying we're rerunning the old playbook.
00:19:20.560I'm on the ground, and I can see the support for Trump.
00:19:23.680And then I go over to my phone, and then I look at the New York Times, and then I look at the Des Moines Register, and look at all this stuff.
00:19:29.040I'm coming out saying, oh, no, no, Kamala Harris has got this, and she's the one who's going to win it up.
00:19:34.320And I said, I see what's going on here.
00:19:36.140They are prepping the color revolution yet again.
00:19:40.260The Guardian was going after me yesterday.
00:19:42.000The Times are going after you today, Steve.
00:19:43.760All the MAGA movement, all the people we've been doing, the work we've been doing crisscrossing Pennsylvania and their other Rust Belt states, generating the support, going and being with the people.
00:20:31.700They are seeding the narrative now with press and polls and with this new talk all about the DOD and President Trump and the Insurrection Act.
00:20:51.040Jeff Carlson and Hans Mac have a great piece up all about this.
00:20:54.340They're talking about executing this because this is what they do.
00:20:57.900When the people of a country that they don't like vote the wrong way, then they execute the color revolution and they say, well, the people got it wrong.
00:21:12.680If MAGA shows up and puts the ball across the goal line and does so in such a dominating fashion, dominating fashion, we need full spectrum MAGA dominance on Monday.
00:21:25.480That means once you've voted, you're motivating the rest of people in line, you're motivating people that are in your chat groups, that are in your family, that are in your friend, that are in your Knights of Columbus group, whatever it is, you're going and making sure that everyone has already voted and you must spend the entire day doing that, being the fourth multiplier, being the motivator.
00:21:43.720If we do that, then none of this color revolution nonsense is going to get off the ground.
00:21:48.720And just the last piece on the suppression polls that we're seeing, they're talking about all of these phantom numbers.
00:21:55.680Oh, the senior women, senior women are totally coming in for Trump.
00:21:59.740Show me in the data of the actual early votes.
00:23:45.040At this point, not only is Trump going to win, but Trump's going to win by several points.
00:23:51.080And this is really a historic realignment like we see very rarely in American politics.
00:23:58.820White people, Hispanic people, black people, all these folks that the racists who run the Democratic Party won a pigeonhole have stood up and said, look, no, it's our country and we're taking it back.
00:25:16.200We've positioned this, and this is – the audience has done such a magnificent job in all the states, but particularly the battleground states on the early voting and the mail and all of it and the turnout and the efforts you've made.
00:25:33.920She's gone from multiple paths to victory six weeks ago to only one path to victory, which she's got to punch through the – she's got to hold the blue wall.
00:25:42.640You take one out, and if Pennsylvania, Wisconsin – I think it's probably Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan in that order.
00:25:50.520Talk to us about how people throughout the country can help the groups out there.
00:25:54.240Are there apps that people can make phone calls?
00:25:56.060So, you know, it's canvassing non – I know you're going to be canvassing going door-to-door, which is massive, and they're bragging right now, Jack, and I'll send that – they're putting tweets up saying they're knocking on a million doors today in Pennsylvania, things like that, right, because they're in panic mode.
00:26:10.480They know they've got to rev up a ground game here to be able to represent on Tuesday.
00:26:15.140But, Sam, what can this audience do to assist you guys?
00:26:17.960Well, look, everybody who's in Pennsylvania can physically be involved, right, knocking doors, sending text messages, picking up the phone, talking to their neighbors, speaking to people.
00:26:28.940The single biggest issue we have in the MAGA movement is this tendency for people to go into this mode where the only folks they're communicating with are the folks who've already got religion, to use an old-fashioned expression.
00:26:55.800And you can do that nationwide in every way that you possibly can.
00:27:03.340And the other thing we always stress is stop thinking like you've got to win the war on your own or you've got to find a silver bullet.
00:27:09.960If you're talking to 10 relatives or 10 friends in the state of Pennsylvania and engaging them and communicating with them and everybody's doing that, we win.
00:27:39.200He snuck into town, snuck out and talked to CNN claims 100 people.
00:27:43.880I can tell you that's – if he had 50 people in the room, he was lucky and they were all union officials that were paid to be there and told to be there, right?
00:28:08.640For 10 years, Patriot Mobile has been America's only Christian conservative wireless provider.
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00:30:13.940You can also go to our online magazine, andmagazineandmagazine.substack.com,
00:30:19.440because we've been really putting a lot of time and energy into covering Pennsylvania-specific stories regarding election integrity,
00:30:28.980but also generally more national issues that bear on the election, like Tim Walz's connection to the Chinese Communist Party and fun stuff like that.
00:32:05.960Mark Elias and the leftists and all those mocking, cynical, arrogant talking heads on the leftist channels cannot match that simple moral simplicity.
00:32:16.280At the end of the day, at the highest level, the truth is always very simple.
00:32:21.040You just put together the machines with a paper ballot backup and then compare it with the voter rolls.
00:32:28.560And you went over yesterday already irregularities in the thousands and thousands of people illegal on the voter rolls.
00:32:48.240The idea that Obama, right, the superstar, slick suit, glossy politician, the idea that Joe Biden got more votes than him is just mind numbing, right?
00:33:00.760And the idea that Kamala Harris was inserted.
00:33:22.800I mean, President Trump just put out a truth post and posted a few minutes ago ripping on Fox for why he's got so many – why they've got so many Democrats on, kind of doing Democratic advertising.
00:33:38.340I don't think – I was on my sabbatical at the time, but I thought it was – and I think Warren did a great job.
00:33:44.040But the rest of the conservative, Inc. did a terrible job of forcing the 25th Amendment issues, of forcing how long she knew this, et cetera.
00:34:43.640But as Jack just said, right, all those fraternities and sororities at Penn, they're all on the right side of the football, but they need a vote.
00:34:50.900And the Christians listening on this Sunday morning, if they go out and vote, we're going to win by tens of millions.
00:36:05.320They don't have that as the massive beating drum that they used for the entire year to get the vote out.
00:36:09.880They also don't have the George Floyd moment, the racial issues which were used to inflame the nation to push it out as hard as they could in that year.
00:36:19.220And so those low prop voters that all came out in 2020, or I should say came out in 2020, let's say those ballots came in in 2020.
00:36:29.080We can talk a lot about whether or not those voters exist.
00:36:32.400But we're just not seeing the numbers.
00:36:34.080When this is put to a serious vote, when this is put to an actual vote, we are not seeing the numbers come out in ways that they would project.
00:36:43.560We are instead seeing numbers that we've been modeling the entire year.
00:36:47.700We're seeing the swing with young males.
00:36:51.140We're seeing the swing with Hispanic males, with African-American black males.
00:36:55.640We're seeing all those swings that you and myself and everyone's been talking about on our side of the football this entire time.
00:37:02.360And more importantly, when I go out into the field, when I go out into places like State College like I was last night, it's all there.
00:38:13.040So maybe you could come over to Pennsylvania and we could show you our numbers and show you where the massive new votes are because they're not coming from people that are sitting around watching MSNBC and answering the phone saying their number one issue is the state of democracy.
00:38:47.000It doesn't reflect early vote patterns whatsoever.
00:38:49.540Jack, where do people follow you on one thing for like the the fact that they're talking about, oh, this is theoretical women over 65 or young women with college degrees and the skipping around on that.
00:39:06.440They refuse to address the central problem they have.
00:39:11.380So it's the free fall is looked at in Philadelphia, a black men who are not coming out to vote for her.
00:39:19.940That is the ticking time bomb on the on the on the Harris campaign.
00:39:26.700And that's if the New York Times was serious about winning and not trying to gum up our victory with, you know, saying, oh, this thing was stolen.
00:39:43.000And there's a lot of this because they think she's the queen of mass incarceration.
00:39:46.480She's destroyed so many of these families and she refuses to do mass deportations of illegal alien criminals.
00:39:52.860And now they're flooding into the into the into the jails.
00:39:57.320And so every family, every family knows, knows this, knows this situation or knows someone.
00:40:03.540And they look at her as arrogant, out of touch and someone that just is is does not have their economic interest, cultural interest, political interest in mind.
00:40:14.160And these folks are smart and they're going, no, we're not going to vote for look at the number in Philadelphia.
00:40:18.140I think it's fifty four thousand drop.
00:40:19.940Is that what the math tells us right now?
00:40:23.500Look, you're seeing the massive drops in Philadelphia and the filthy inquirers, you know, even though I'm a longstanding nemesis of those guys in back of my home city, that they even ran the story.
00:40:36.120They ran the story that said they're going from ward to ward in these working class wards, working class whites, working class blacks, working class Hispanics.
00:40:45.960And they're saying we are not for her because she's not for us.
00:41:47.640In California in 2010, when she won her first big race, it wasn't until three weeks later against the Republican that when she was running against Steve Cooley and Steve Cooley had been the LADA.
00:42:00.580It was three weeks later that she fought for every single vote and she did not concede.
00:46:17.620Hey, that started out as a hit piece and turned out to be kind of a very powerful piece talking about what the worm talks about every day with a working class, blue-collar, middle-class audience.
00:46:29.600We give them a sophisticated analysis as you get on Bloomberg TV, but accessible so people can kind of understand the world in which we live in.
00:47:15.460Real clear politics, and I keep saying the real clear politics average is the best way to get a sense of it.
00:47:22.040They've got an analysis out today of kind of their poll of polls of everything, Dave Bratz, where they say, hey, Trump has a quote-unquote narrow path to a victory.
00:47:33.260Now, I know a lot of guys say it's going to be a landslide and there's going to be a blowout.
00:47:36.560Hey, that may all be true, and that's fine.
00:47:39.360That's what I call upside, like an upside and a deal.
00:47:43.220But the basic core of this, of the game, is to get to 270 and to hold the House of Representatives, even if it's only by a couple of seats.
00:47:51.680And I think we may have a pickup or two.
00:48:50.840The reality of the Biden regime and the new ecosystem of media on the right, of which war rooms are part of that.
00:48:58.460But you got the Charlie Kirk show, Real America's Voice, Jack Posobiec, and many, many, many others that came about a lot of it during the pandemic, that people now go and get their information.
00:49:09.080This ecosystem on the right is much more powerful than cable TV.
00:49:40.320I put that out a couple of weeks ago, September 26 from Danbury Federal Prison.
00:49:44.100I think it's the only thing I actually put out the entire time there.
00:49:48.700I had to because I saw with about a month or so, six weeks to go, how this was going to line up in that we could be positioned.
00:49:57.600On the weekend beforehand, exactly where we wanted to be, where it was all within our grass that if we turned out in North Carolina, turned out in Georgia and turned out in Arizona, turned out in Nevada, that we could roll those up, that people had done the work on the early voting side.
00:50:11.800So this is all about you have to do it and then back her into a corner up into the blue wall.
00:50:20.540And, you know, cut off all of her possible avenues for victory, except she's got to carry the blue wall.
00:50:26.320And then, hey, let's throw down in Wisconsin.