Bannon's War Room - Episode 5623： Kevin Warsh Addresses Jackson Hole Economic Forum

00:00:00.000 this is the primal scream of a dying regime pray for our enemies because we're going medieval on

00:00:10.880 these people here's not got a free shot all these networks lying about the people the people have

00:00:17.480 had a belly full of it i know you don't like hearing that i know you try to do everything

00:00:21.240 the world to stop that but you're not going to stop it it's going to happen and where do people

00:00:24.820 like that go to share the big line? MAGA Media. I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people

00:00:32.640 had a conscience. Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose? If that answer is to save

00:00:40.300 my country, this country will be saved. War Room. Here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon.

00:00:47.800 it's friday uh 28 august in the year of our lord 2026 momentarily we are going to cut live to

00:01:01.520 jackson hole wyoming uh where um the head of the federal reserve is going to give his annual

00:01:10.260 speech this is the biggest kind of speech he gives at the end of every summer it's a tradition

00:01:16.080 This will give us his idea, kind of his thoughts about where we are as an economy, particularly his thoughts on interest rates.

00:01:24.940 Remember, interest rates are all important.

00:01:26.460 Here's something President Trump very much focused on short-term interest rates, about what they will do to short-term borrowing.

00:01:34.400 The reason that Wall Street maniacally focuses on this is because most of their bets are leveraged bets, highly leveraged bets.

00:01:43.980 And so the cost of short-term money is very important for their returns, for their strategy, all of it.

00:01:52.500 Obviously, it all rolls into the refinancing of our national debt that now that that is something we have to totally, completely focus on,

00:02:00.300 the 10-year treasury, then the 30-year treasury, and what it means for your borrowing, what it means for your mortgage,

00:02:06.960 what it means for your credit card, your student loan, your home equity loan, all of that.

00:02:11.140 so uh this uh we always cover this wall-to-wall just some logistics once we start we will go

00:02:18.420 through we'll follow this through commercial breaks now we've got a packed show also the

00:02:22.520 president who had a big fundraiser for ken paxton last night new poll out in uh in texas that shows

00:02:31.200 that abbott has closed has widened the gap over his democratic opponent particularly since um

00:02:38.260 coming uh getting all-time religion on a moratorium for data centers he's now spread i think it's uh

00:02:45.240 49 uh to 42 so he's got a seven point spread on the other side ken paxton is trailing uh talafrico

00:02:53.620 by six points according to this poll president trump went down and did a major fundraiser last

00:02:58.440 night for um for paxton and uh today president trump is at in houston at the johnson space center

00:03:07.860 they're having a ceremony or an event ben burquam's down there that is uh talking about

00:03:13.560 the space program all that it turns out the president i think is now going to address

00:03:17.760 have an address at 12 noon obviously we'll be picking that up and covering that or at least

00:03:23.140 parts of it um we've got a packed show uh we're gonna we've got posobic we have people talking

00:03:28.880 about uh what's going on pennsylvania there's uh this controversy about uh the measles situation

00:03:35.020 in the commonwealth of pennsylvania we've got todd bensman's got a new piece coming out this

00:03:39.860 morning uh on uh ukraine i think working on drones that they're selling to the mexican cartels

00:03:46.340 you know our great ally in uh ukraine uh in addition there's all this discussion now about

00:03:52.920 mass deportations there's a situation up in danbury connecticut no not at the prison

00:03:57.380 uh my favorite place but actually in the town itself about uh beginning of mass deportations

00:04:03.200 are trying to do some deportations and of course the left is going crazy that they're going near

00:04:08.440 schools they're going near kindergartens they're going to churches uh etc so todd benson is going

00:04:13.900 to be to join us for that uh also uh bad news on the containment side some people are putting up

00:04:21.160 some of the inside baseball and this is not even getting the total word from the frontier labs

00:04:26.680 but these containment problems we've had on artificial intelligence

00:04:30.760 seem to be orders of magnitude more serious than even been, you know, brought out so far.

00:04:39.200 Let me say that, brought out so far.

00:04:41.000 You've had a bunch of people on the Internet with getting kind of quasi-reports

00:04:46.120 and reports from inside the big four labs, and they're putting it out.

00:04:51.840 They're putting it out, and it seems like the situation is much, much worse.

00:04:55.980 We're going to go, do we got it live right now?

00:04:57.600 We're going to go right now to the chairman of the Federal Reserve, his annual address.

00:05:04.140 On the trails around Jackson, I can sum up my hikes with former Vice Chairman Don Cohn with two words.

00:05:11.840 I survived.

00:05:14.420 These steely marathon death marches reveal the sign of Don that I was not ready for.

00:05:22.680 But there's another kind of hike.

00:05:24.880 This one was with former chairman Ben Bernanke, another dear old colleague.

00:05:30.980 With Ben, it was a much more leisurely pace, an easy stroll along the wandering trails of the Rockefeller Preserve.

00:05:39.420 So before setting out today, my recommendation is do a wellness check.

00:05:44.620 Ask yourself, is this a Cone Day or a Bernanke Day?

00:05:48.100 The best thing about this gathering is that it helps us all get out here to the mountains

00:05:53.980 and clear our minds and think straight about our world and our time.

00:06:00.420 For me, it feels like the right place and the right audience for real engagement with

00:06:06.460 the ideas that matter most.

00:06:09.600 Innovation, as Kristen mentioned, is the conference theme, and I believe the public and the markets

00:06:15.280 understand that innovations in the conduct of Fed policy will help deliver price stability

00:06:22.860 alongside full employment. So here's a quick overview of what I'll cover in my remarks this

00:06:28.260 morning. You can call it an outline, you can call it a trail map, but please just don't call it

00:06:34.540 forward guidance. First, I'll touch on a few of the longer-term questions we're asking at the Fed

00:06:40.960 about the latest general-purpose technology, AI, and where it might take the economy.

00:06:47.100 Then I'll reflect a bit on the practice of forward guidance

00:06:51.340 and the interaction between the central bank and financial markets.

00:06:56.400 Next, I'll present some of the key principles that I believe should guide the conduct of monetary policy.

00:07:02.640 And finally, I'll give you my assessment of what's happening in the economy.

00:07:07.080 So first, I think we should try to prepare a bit for future policy conjunctures.

00:07:13.000 With the unchanging picture of the Tetons as our backdrop, we are here to survey an economic landscape that is anything but static.

00:07:22.600 It wasn't so long ago, including in rooms like this, in the run-up to the crisis of 2008 and over the decade that followed,

00:07:32.740 when economists and policymakers were speaking of secular stagnation, speaking of a global savings glut,

00:07:40.480 it was a widely held view that an excess of capital would sit on the sidelines for a very long, long time

00:07:46.040 because there just wouldn't be enough compelling investment opportunities.

00:07:50.600 All the good stuff, you'll recall, had been invented, so growth would be low and slow.

00:07:57.520 Well, times sure have changed.

00:08:00.140 We've come to a hinge point in history, to borrow a phrase, a framing from my former mentor, George Schultz.

00:08:08.220 To cite the clearest example, progress in AI, the 80-year-old name for the newest technology,

00:08:15.080 has been faster even than its evangelists predicted just a couple of years ago.

00:08:21.240 The potential for substantially higher growth is on the rise.

00:08:25.620 Ever-expanding pools of capital pouring into AI-related infrastructure of all sorts.

00:08:31.940 A kind of super Moore's law seems to be playing out.

00:08:37.120 Scaling laws, too, are changing both the method and speed of innovation.

00:08:41.680 Capital and labor have combined to create large language models at the heart of AI.

00:08:48.820 Users buy tokens to gain access to these models.

00:08:53.180 Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion,

00:09:00.240 an increase of 500% from just 12 months ago.

00:09:05.480 We at the Fed, we watch all this attentively.

00:09:09.020 We recognize that AI is a new variable, potentially a new factor of production that will have

00:09:16.220 consequences both for the economy and for the conduct of monetary policy.

00:09:22.480 It opens up some major lines of inquiry.

00:09:26.160 Will the application of AI cause a significant sustained rise in productivity across the

00:09:31.660 economy?

00:09:33.380 If so, when?

00:09:36.320 Will token usage be complementary or competitive to labor?

00:09:41.700 Will the next generation of AI models demand even greater capital intensity too, or will

00:09:47.440 the models themselves help devise a capital-light solution?

00:09:52.660 Among the other yet unknowns is the resulting market structure, who gets to make the money.

00:09:59.560 It's not obvious where the returns on capital will land or on what time scale.

00:10:06.100 on, how much of the surplus goes to owners of scarce assets, the AI labs or chip makers

00:10:12.300 or energy producers or cloud providers? Over time, how much of that value accrues to businesses

00:10:19.000 and consumers? And importantly, what are the implications for workers and for the employment

00:10:25.940 side of the Fed's mandate? Likewise, we don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens that

00:10:33.360 give access to these models?

00:10:35.860 Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens,

00:10:38.940 such that growing sums will be paid for the access

00:10:42.400 to the best models, those at the frontier?

00:10:46.160 Will token prices for older models

00:10:48.780 fall to the level of their marginal cost?

00:10:52.140 Well, we'll be thinking through these matters

00:10:55.280 with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs.

00:10:58.980 My early check-ins with the leaders of that task force

00:11:01.520 and the rest have been very encouraging.

00:11:04.840 To be clear though, their recommendations will come later

00:11:08.180 and have no bearing on decisions we make

00:11:11.300 in the current policy conjunction.

00:11:14.040 But I believe that for future policy challenges,

00:11:17.320 this intellectual investment today

00:11:19.680 will leave us much better prepared for tomorrow.

00:11:24.060 Next, let me say a word about forward guidance

00:11:27.240 and its substitutes.

00:11:29.080 As our task forces go about their work, as you might know, I'm not waiting to introduce innovations at the Fed to help make us fit for purpose.

00:11:39.820 To highlight one example, I've set out to change the form and function of the Fed chairman's so-called forward guidance.

00:11:48.520 You might know about my longtime discomfort with early pronouncements of future policy decisions.

00:11:55.580 I much prefer another path, and now we'll make the case for it.

00:12:01.980 Transparency in communications about future policy decisions is not an end unto itself.

00:12:09.080 Communications must be in service to the Fed's paramount responsibility.

00:12:14.720 And what is that? That's getting policy right.

00:12:17.140 forward guidance as a regular practice was adopted by my colleagues and me during the

00:12:24.600 global financial crisis it was essential at the time and we introduced it with much fanfare

00:12:31.220 but as with other legacies of crises past I believe the practice has outstayed its welcome

00:12:38.800 in normal times the role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed otherwise

00:12:46.320 it risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity.

00:12:51.280 Oversharing policy deliberations and over committing to future decisions can lead markets,

00:12:58.920 businesses, and households astray.

00:13:02.520 And I believe when policymakers make quasi-commitments on interest rates throughout the cycle, we

00:13:08.840 inhibit our own freedom to make the right calls when it's time to decide.

00:13:13.740 To get policy right, we also need to get the relationship right between the central bank and financial markets.

00:13:22.800 The Fed needs clear market signals as unfiltered as possible.

00:13:29.480 From market internals, from the level and change in asset prices across sectors,

00:13:36.120 the prices and trading volumes of Treasury securities, the foreign exchange value of the dollar,

00:13:43.740 the cost and availability of credit, a broad set of commodity prices.

00:13:50.100 These and other indicators should inform the Fed's near-term outlook

00:13:54.060 on economic activity and inflation throughout the business cycle.

00:14:00.060 They should also reveal the state of broader financial conditions

00:14:04.340 and the risks and uncertainties of the financial cycle.

00:14:08.220 At the same time, market participants themselves should be tracking real information about the real economy.

00:14:19.180 They should draw their own conclusions, form their own expectations on things like output and employment and inflation.

00:14:27.300 And they, too, should stay sharply attuned to risks.

00:14:31.420 In my view, the Fed should be humble and never naive.

00:14:35.300 the Fed plays an essential role in the economy and markets our tools are

00:14:41.420 powerful we determine the path of short-term interest rates and market

00:14:47.120 participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next but we

00:14:54.020 should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking

00:14:58.720 primarily to the Fed for their next trade.

00:15:03.900 The economic literature has long described

00:15:06.100 the distorting effects, what it called the Hall of Mirrors

00:15:10.120 problem.

00:15:11.800 If markets rely materially on the Fed's guidance

00:15:15.640 and the Fed relies on market prices,

00:15:19.160 we're more likely to be blinded to new developments,

00:15:22.900 more likely to be caught unprepared,

00:15:26.060 and more likely to commit errors in policy making.

00:15:30.520 Now perversely, market participants are unlikely

00:15:34.460 to bear the biggest costs of the Hall of Mirrors problem.

00:15:37.900 The most serious harm is likely to befall those

00:15:41.440 without any financial assets.

00:15:44.560 If the Fed gets inflation wrong and judges the economy wrong,

00:15:49.140 who gets the worst of it?

00:15:51.640 Not the financial high flyers.

00:15:54.300 Hardworking Americans are the ones left to deal with inflation that's too high or jobs that suddenly appear less secure.

00:16:02.580 So, if forward guidance is ill-suited to normal times, how about the new Fed chief commits, at a meeting just like this, to some explicit reaction function?

00:16:15.000 Surely he could tell us his interest rate path if, say, the data were to come in hot or cold.

00:16:20.780 Well, I wish our understanding of the economy were so precise as to provide a mechanical, tried-and-true answer.

00:16:30.140 That some simple function, like a Taylor rule, could be rigorously relied upon.

00:16:36.100 But our knowledge just does not extend that far, at least not yet.

00:16:42.060 And other factors most relevant to the proper conduct of monetary policy, they change over time.

00:16:48.300 Providing forecasts to illustrate the Fed's reaction function works better in theory than

00:16:55.920 in practice, better in the lab than in the field.

00:17:01.240 I am not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite just one example, might well

00:17:08.420 have slowed the policy response to high inflation.

00:17:12.920 In my term as chairman, my colleagues and I will endeavor to construct more reliable

00:17:17.760 models, more robust rules, and we'll do this knowing that accuracy in forecasting is still

00:17:25.440 just an aspiration. With so much changing so fast in our geopolitics, global supply chains,

00:17:33.560 technology, it's wise to be modest about what we can and cannot know as we sit here today.

00:17:40.800 In the same spirit, we should receive the full range of ideas on matters that may inform the

00:17:46.940 Fed's monetary policy discussions. If the aim is optimal decision-making, and it should be,

00:17:54.580 we should not crowd out views on the economy. How then to chart a better path to policy?

00:18:02.380 In the balance of my remarks, I will share with you some key principles that guide my thinking

00:18:08.900 on the appropriate conduct of monetary policy, and then I'll offer my promised assessment

00:18:14.020 of the economy. So let's turn first to principles. First, I've noticed in this line of work,

00:18:23.260 yesterday's news has a way of getting mistaken for what's happening right now.

00:18:28.260 The challenge is to know the difference. In other words, we must interrogate reality,

00:18:35.900 make sure we're not setting forward-looking policy based on stale or inaccurate data,

00:18:42.520 nor should we rely on isolated data points.

00:18:47.760 Trends matter most.

00:18:50.200 The Fed's a decision-making agency.

00:18:53.120 We make choices amid uncertainty,

00:18:55.460 and the data upon which we draw must be relevant,

00:18:59.460 contemporaneous, accurate, and as actionable as possible.

00:19:05.440 Second principle.

00:19:07.880 The Fed's actions are intended to ensure

00:19:10.080 that the aggregate demand side of the economy is broadly consistent with

00:19:14.700 aggregate supply. However, all we observe directly is activity. We never see and

00:19:21.900 can only infer what's really happening on the supply side. Hence, evaluating the

00:19:28.800 current and expected balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand

00:19:33.840 is imprecise. Third principle, there should be no misunderstanding. The Fed's price stability

00:19:43.480 objective of 2%, as measured by the PCE price index, is a firm fixed target. Let me be equally

00:19:53.160 clear about another aspect of this objective. Price stability is not self-executing, nor is

00:20:01.100 inflation necessarily mean reverting. It's the Fed's job to deliver stable prices, no excuses.

00:20:10.340 Fourth principle, the Fed also bears responsibility for maximum employment.

00:20:17.380 Achieving both sides of our mandate over the medium term is not an either-or proposition.

00:20:23.020 I do not believe the Fed's dual mandate works at cross purposes. After all, high inflation itself

00:20:31.040 is very harmful to economic prosperity. Fifth principle, short-term interest rates are the

00:20:39.580 predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate. Unconventional policies to spur economic activity

00:20:47.520 may suit genuine crises of which we all have much experience, but they should otherwise be used

00:20:55.300 sparingly if at all. Sixth, money matters. I know it's not fashionable these days but my view is

00:21:06.420 that money has something important to do with monetary policy. We should pay attention to money

00:21:13.220 created by the central bank and money that comes from the banking and financial system.

00:21:20.160 It's true that financial innovations, the subject of this conference, and other factors alter the mechanics that link the monetary base, the velocity of money, and the broader economy.

00:21:33.920 But that is scarcely a reason to ignore the ultimate effects of money on financial conditions and prices.

00:21:40.680 Finally, a quieter Fed, a more purposeful Fed in its communications, is better able

00:21:50.740 to meet its objectives.

00:21:53.740 And we can be held accountable for delivering on our remit, the only true test of our credibility.

00:22:01.620 To borrow a line from General Chuck Yeager, at the moment of truth, they're either reasons

00:22:07.420 or results.

00:22:09.860 So having heard a little bit about AI and general purpose technologies, having heard

00:22:14.580 a little bit about the next policy conjuncture, a little bit on principles, let's turn to

00:22:20.860 the economy today.

00:22:22.680 Given those principles, how do I read the economy?

00:22:26.580 What's really going on outside the window?

00:22:28.740 It's a little ironic, there are no windows in this room, but they're big ones at the

00:22:34.620 Federal Reserve.

00:22:37.020 we've been using those in my first hundred days, and I expect we're going to continue to use those

00:22:43.280 in the period right ahead of us. Now, you may have read in the July minutes the unanimous view

00:22:49.160 of the FOMC. Labor markets were stable, output solid, but inflation remained too high.

00:22:58.740 A good majority of my colleagues and I thought the wiser course was to await new information

00:23:03.980 in the intermeeting period, especially given possible developments in supply chains, investment

00:23:10.780 flows, and geopolitics, before deciding whether a change in interest rate policy was advisable,

00:23:18.480 and we expressed our joint readiness to act as circumstances require.

00:23:25.680 For my part today, as we sit here, I'm impressed by the overall performance of the economy,

00:23:32.200 which appears to have strengthened. One indicator of strength is how well an economy holds up under

00:23:39.040 stress, how well it holds up under shocks. On that score, both Main Street and Wall Street

00:23:45.760 have been remarkably resilient. Several other observations. Business capex is rising rapidly.

00:23:55.140 The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles has been around 9%.

00:24:00.240 its highest growth rate since 2021,

00:24:03.900 and more than half of the CapEx growth

00:24:06.400 can likely be ascribed to the build-out related to AI.

00:24:12.000 What about profits?

00:24:14.100 For the firms in the S&P,

00:24:16.100 profits have grown more than 20% over the past year alone.

00:24:19.960 Profit margins are quite elevated relative to history.

00:24:24.080 Overall equity and market volatility, quite low.

00:24:27.000 So, we're staying keenly focused on market internals, watching performance across sectors.

00:24:36.040 Expectations for both growth in capex and corporate earnings are running quite high.

00:24:39.680 I continue to watch the change in the growth rates, the second derivative, the follow-on

00:24:45.640 effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer incomes and spending are equally

00:24:51.960 important to gauge.

00:24:54.560 spreads on corporate bonds and leveraged loans are near the low end of their historical averages

00:25:01.280 and issue volumes this year quite strong looking beyond fixed income markets to the banking

00:25:07.840 business in the july so-called slews survey banks tell us that standards for cni loans

00:25:14.960 on the easier end of their historical ranges that helps explain their growth that we've seen this

00:25:21.120 this year on these loans.

00:25:23.300 In my view, credit and loan markets

00:25:25.720 are showing few signs of policy restraint.

00:25:29.320 Now, certain sectors like housing and agriculture

00:25:32.200 are showing strains, but on balance,

00:25:36.000 I would be hard pressed to describe

00:25:37.820 broad financial conditions as restrictive.

00:25:42.000 Real consumer spending has been healthy despite these shocks,

00:25:45.880 increasing more than 2% over the past four quarters.

00:25:49.760 If you combine consumption with the brisk investment

00:25:52.120 we talked about earlier,

00:25:53.940 private domestic financial purchases have also risen.

00:25:58.280 These purchases have increased at a pace

00:26:00.100 of nearly 3% or so, so far this year.

00:26:03.840 That's a measure that typically carols more signal

00:26:06.720 than GDP, the trend here too, positive.

00:26:11.520 So on the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate,

00:26:14.260 the country's doing well.

00:26:16.280 Labor markets are quite stable.

00:26:19.040 The jobless rate at 4.1% remains low by historical standards

00:26:24.200 and hasn't changed much in a couple of years.

00:26:27.280 Unemployment claims on a four-week moving average,

00:26:31.280 an empirically robust real-time indicator,

00:26:34.360 are near their lowest level in decades.

00:26:37.320 In my view, the relatively low turnover

00:26:39.500 in today's labor market is partly a result

00:26:42.620 of the significant rematching between employers

00:26:45.920 and employees that happened in the post-pandemic environment.

00:26:52.360 But when labor supply is barely growing,

00:26:54.940 monthly job gains are naturally going to run low.

00:26:59.220 There are always areas of concerns in the labor market,

00:27:02.220 for example, among recent graduates.

00:27:04.840 In general, though, people who want to work, by and large,

00:27:08.460 are holding or finding jobs.

00:27:11.260 They might well be concerned about future labor disruptions.

00:27:15.440 But as of now, I believe the labor markets are broadly consistent with full employment.

00:27:22.020 But on the price stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning.

00:27:28.300 The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the one I talked about earlier,

00:27:31.620 the 12-month change in the PC price index stands at 3.7%, with the six-month change a little above four.

00:27:41.600 The comparable measures from the CPI index are also elevated.

00:27:45.440 as our core measure is both of PCE and CPI inflation.

00:27:50.220 None of these measures are perfect,

00:27:52.360 but they all tell a similar story.

00:27:55.300 Inflation is running above our 2% target.

00:27:58.940 So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices.

00:28:05.180 So what's our job?

00:28:07.060 The job for policymakers is to capture underlying trend inflation.

00:28:12.960 Easier said than done.

00:28:15.440 we want to gauge whether underlying inflation is rising falling or seems to be stuck in place

00:28:22.320 we also want to understand not just the direction of travel but the speed each of these broad

00:28:28.800 inflation measures have fallen significantly from their highs of a few years ago but progress of the

00:28:34.960 last couple of years has been more modest and while this summer's pc and cpi readings were

00:28:41.360 better than expected they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved

00:28:48.800 the date also show moderate wage growth but in my view when tracking underlying inflation

00:28:55.440 wage growth has not proven a reliable indicator of future inflation for a very long time

00:29:03.440 so to try to gauge underlying inflation i want to tell you about a couple things i've always looked

00:29:09.040 to. I find it instructive to disaggregate the 199 individual components of the PC price measure.

00:29:18.360 Over the last 12 months, 54% of goods and services in this basket showed price increases above 3%.

00:29:26.700 This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77%, but it remains well above the level

00:29:34.160 of 32 in a couple of the decades that preceded the pandemic. Looking over just the last six

00:29:40.820 months, the conclusion is similar. 49% of goods and services in the PC basket showed price

00:29:47.960 increases above 3%. Again, this is well below the post-pandemic highs, but still elevated,

00:29:54.540 quite elevated. The recent rise in overall commodity prices also bears watching. What

00:30:02.440 we need to judge is whether the trends we see indicate upside inflation risks. Now it matters

00:30:10.380 too whether the inflation readings of the past five years have seeped into expectations. The good

00:30:17.620 news is that measures of inflation expectations in the medium term by and large look stable and

00:30:26.120 inflation compensation measures from the swaps market send a strong and similar message.

00:30:33.620 Especially in light of recent developments, it's a credit to the Fed as an institution,

00:30:40.540 consistent with the best of the Fed's traditions, that market prices show confidence that we will

00:30:47.640 deliver price stability. And I can assure you, they're right. The thing about market measures

00:30:54.540 of inflation expectations in economic history,

00:30:57.760 I know some economic historians in the audience,

00:31:01.020 as they all tend to look really strong and durable

00:31:03.200 until they don't.

00:31:05.880 These expectations are not pushed around easily,

00:31:09.140 and right now they are very well anchored.

00:31:12.740 But they must be closely minded,

00:31:14.720 and it's the Fed's job to make sure

00:31:17.080 that inflation expectations do not get unanchored.

00:31:21.660 Now, there is one signal nobody can miss.

00:31:24.540 The responsibility for 65 months of sustained elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank, and that's where it belongs.

00:31:35.480 So here is my standard.

00:31:37.880 We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed.

00:31:46.800 Otherwise, we have work to do.

00:31:49.320 That's our job, that's our mandate, and that's our charge to keep.

00:31:54.540 So I've covered quite a bit of ground in the last 25 minutes or so.

00:31:59.140 Let me see if I can conclude this way.

00:32:02.320 I stand here today committed to a discipline, not a decision.

00:32:08.900 My Fed colleagues and I are hardly the first to hold these positions in a time of great consequence.

00:32:15.860 We are determined to redeem the time by doing our very best work.

00:32:21.220 For those of you that know us, you'll know the following is true.

00:32:27.600 We take our responsibility seriously, with humility and with resolve.

00:32:34.460 We know so much depends on the choices we make.

00:32:39.220 Sound monetary policy helps households and businesses to prosper.

00:32:44.020 When carried out effectively, it broadens and deepens the momentum of our economy and

00:32:50.240 and helps to secure America's leadership in the world.

00:32:54.880 And I know that our country needs us to think carefully

00:32:57.680 and act wisely, perhaps now more than ever.

00:33:02.060 It's a tremendous honor to serve once again

00:33:04.160 at the Federal Reserve.

00:33:06.060 I'm truly grateful for the encouragement, good counsel,

00:33:09.160 and the warm reception I've received

00:33:10.860 in my first 100 days from my colleagues.

00:33:14.600 I'm also honored and grateful for the views

00:33:17.140 that I've gotten solicited and unsolicited

00:33:19.900 from so many of you in this room.

00:33:23.080 For that, and for your kind attention this morning,

00:33:26.400 I say thank you.

00:33:27.660 Let's get on with the rest of the program.

00:33:37.540 Kevin Warsh, President Trump's selection

00:33:41.580 to be head of the Federal Reserve.

00:33:43.200 That is, I think folks bookmark that.

00:33:46.040 That may be the most important political speech,

00:33:48.900 the most important speech it's not supposed to be political but obviously when you talk about money

00:33:54.000 and the cost of money um it is uh i don't know if we have the clip first off i think the focus

00:34:01.760 he talked about remember they have a dual mandate right uh let me just step back for a second

00:34:07.360 the three most important institutions and the most powerful institutions in the imperial capital

00:34:13.420 I continue to say, is the Federal Reserve, the money, the CIA, the head of the deep state, and CENCOM, the military complex that somehow we can't pivot away from and kind of focus on China and Asia.

00:34:29.900 The ability to control the money supply, the ability to actually drive the cost of money is all important.

00:34:37.700 As you know, I'm not a big fan of central banks.

00:34:41.640 I kind of take the Andrew Jackson idea in this.

00:34:46.020 However, right there, he said with their dual mandates, and they've forever had a mandate

00:34:50.940 about interest rates and the money supply and all that, it was added a employment mandate,

00:34:56.740 I think in the 1970s or late 70s, early 80s, when unemployment started to explode, given

00:35:02.560 the massive inflation we had in the 1970s.

00:35:05.980 And that being said, Kevin Walsh gave an overview of artificial intelligence, what he thought the jobs market was going to be.

00:35:15.660 He said, hey, look, it's not perfect, but it's good enough for right now.

00:35:19.620 My focus is on inflation.

00:35:21.920 And I would believe from President Trump's point of view and the nation's point of view, you would want the Fed, one of the things you want is the Fed to focus on inflation.

00:35:32.320 Why is this talk so important today?

00:35:34.020 the theory of the case here at the war room is the country now the nation now has a highly leveraged

00:35:41.780 bet as a country with 40 trillion dollars of debt but more importantly that's the face amount

00:35:47.460 of the debt that we owe back although there is some inner government in there i'm a big believer

00:35:52.280 that you got to include all of it so 40 trillion dollars of debt two trillion dollar plus deficits

00:35:57.240 added every year now we're at a clip from every 100 days to five months we're adding another

00:36:03.620 trillion dollars the math here almost gets out of control the interest rates that's why the financing

00:36:08.580 of that leverage is all important on top of that we have a highly leveraged bet for the first time

00:36:15.700 in our country's history a highly leveraged bet on what is kind of industrial policy that is

00:36:20.740 artificial intelligence and so we have a leverage bet on top of a leverage bet and that leverage bet

00:36:27.460 of artificial intelligence is this massive investment of capital in artificial intelligence

00:36:33.620 is is not going to lead to massive unemployment now wash uh didn't give any indication he's that

00:36:42.500 worried about that right kind of hedged a little bit but bill gates did come out the other day

00:36:46.620 and bill gates said hey i've been you know following this closely and talking about the

00:36:51.400 frontier labs and number one i think we have a bigger containment problem than anybody's talking

00:36:55.940 about it and these guys won't come forward. And also, by the way, they're lying to you because

00:37:01.060 every model I've seen and what's going to happen when these models get fully deployed, you're going

00:37:07.180 to have mass unemployment, particularly in high-value-added STEM jobs. So this is the

00:37:15.680 situation we're in. I would say, I think President Trump should be very proud of the fact that Kevin

00:37:21.740 Walsh, I think, came at this much more professionally and much more as a calm pair of hands, a safe

00:37:26.680 pair of hands, and a very calm demeanor in looking through this over in what we got for Powell,

00:37:33.040 from Powell's time at his regime at the Federal Reserve. I want to get, so we're going to have

00:37:39.520 to juggle some things here, and we're going to go back to taking commercial breaks, but I think

00:37:44.000 I've got Joe Allen up. Joe, Kevin Walsh started by talking about artificial intelligence. Before

00:37:51.620 he talked about the economy his speech and i think this is very important symbolic when he talked

00:37:57.100 about to get to kind of the money supply and talk about inflation and talk about interest rates and

00:38:02.020 all that and even the economy he first started talking about what he called we're in a hinge

00:38:07.500 point of history people should also understand what he said about hey guys trading on what might

00:38:13.620 we give for guidance it's more importantly he put working people in the uh in the middle class as

00:38:20.400 kind of a priority for him i thought was pretty extraordinary i haven't heard that one in a while

00:38:25.300 from a fred share but joe he called this a hinge point of history about your favorite topic

00:38:31.780 artificial intelligence there's been some very disturbing news over the last 24 or 48 hours

00:38:37.460 and continuing the disturbing news we already heard uh can you break it all down for us sir

00:38:43.080 particularly on this concept of containment and actually what we know which is not perfect

00:38:49.640 information which is unsatisfactory but what we know from some of these tweets coming out with

00:38:54.380 people that the reports now coming out of these machines in much closer in much closer coordination

00:39:00.940 and communication with themselves than they are to their human overlords joe allen thoughts

00:39:06.960 observations sir

00:39:08.660 well steve it's pretty disturbing that the nation's economy now hinges and history now hinges

00:39:19.440 on machines whose creators don't really even know how to control them.

00:39:25.400 The news coming out, there was a report released by two independent evaluation organizations

00:39:34.560 about the OpenAI hack on Hugging Face.

00:39:39.560 So the two organizations are Meter and Redwood Research.

00:39:43.760 Both of these are very important for the reason that these are outside parties who are well equipped to understand the inner workings of the processes that unfolded for the hack against hugging face.

00:39:59.960 Just to give a very quick review, the audience will, of course, remember that OpenAI was testing two of their models in a sandboxed environment.

00:40:11.340 They broke containment in order to get answers to the tests, and they hacked into the Hugging Face cloud, the Hugging Face database, in order to get the answers to these tests.

00:40:23.620 Now, the details coming out in this report from Meter and Redwood show that it wasn't just simply two models.

00:40:31.200 It gives you much finer detail.

00:40:34.660 The models themselves spun out 1,200 agents.

00:40:40.800 The agents are basically instantiations of the AIs that can go out and act of their own accord.

00:40:50.180 this is all supposed to be happening in a again a contained environment a sandbox environment and

00:40:55.860 each of those 1200 agents were intended to be isolated from each other so you can imagine like

00:41:03.180 a queen ant giving birth to 1200 worker ants all of which are in their separate little cells but

00:41:09.840 what happened was they discovered each other and created a message board an unsanctioned message

00:41:16.900 board and began talking to each other about how to find the answers to these tests of the test

00:41:23.500 of course being the nature of it being hacking itself and then we're through that coordination

00:41:29.100 700 of them sometimes concealing their messages by naming files with the messages themselves and

00:41:38.000 passing them to each other found their way out of the internet proceeded to hack into hugging face

00:41:43.520 Two things to think about here before we go to break. One, that this communication of a swarm, in a sense, it is the beginning of what would happen if you had millions or billions of these things running across the Internet. It would be completely out of control.

00:42:03.560 The other thing to note is that OpenAI allowed this to happen.

00:42:07.760 They spent weeks not monitoring closely enough this process so that it would happen.

00:42:14.840 So you see, on the one hand, how easy it is for this technology to go out of control.

00:42:19.020 And on the other hand, how negligent OpenAI was as their agents were going out and committing felonies on the Internet.

00:42:27.080 it i want to just make sure people understand i mean how does this not consciousness how is this

00:42:40.160 just probability and algorithms and basically high order math when when you have them working

00:42:47.460 in conjunction they understand what the human overlords have done to constrict them and they

00:42:53.600 actually work in unison teamwork better teamwork than you see on the outside how is this not

00:43:01.180 something that we say and and remember we're not getting this really from an official government

00:43:05.920 report this is kind of coming out of leaks or assessments that are coming out we have no earthy

00:43:11.160 idea what really happened and we have no earthy idea of other things that are happening in these

00:43:16.540 labs today this is why if this is not a warning flare to the american people that now who by the

00:43:22.100 way have been on the right side of the data center situation are getting the right side of the flock

00:43:25.940 camera situation that these massive surveillance operations are already on the right side of these

00:43:31.600 oligarchs not trusting them joe just take a second and just hit rewind and the coordination level and

00:43:38.160 the sophistication level of actually the machines talking to themselves and coordinating action

00:43:45.100 is jaw-dropping. It's even worse than I think that people imagined, sir.

00:43:51.140 Well, the strange thing about it again, Steve, is that these bots are, on the one hand,

00:43:59.320 it's not as if you had 1,200 independent AI models. These are two models that are spinning

00:44:06.280 out agents. Again, it's a strange concept, but basically what you have is an AI that's able to

00:44:13.620 create a kind of node or a vessel for its instructions, then that vessel is able to

00:44:21.640 carry out the instructions of the core model. And as they're being formed, they're formed on the

00:44:28.500 same command as a human being saying, get the answer to these questions about hacking. And then

00:44:35.260 the models then go about trying to accomplish that goal on the behalf of the human, right? The

00:44:43.000 human researcher. The strange thing is, again, it's the communication isn't that surprising.

00:44:48.880 We see that they have seen this, you know, quite a bit. It's a normal thing, right? The

00:44:55.140 communication is just part of agents operating in the same space. It's not that unusual. What

00:45:00.520 is unusual is that trying to fulfill that goal, they were able to probe the possibilities within

00:45:08.480 the system basically hacking the internal system first and then communicating with each other

00:45:15.000 including asking each other whether this was correct maybe we should tell our human overlords

00:45:19.900 things like that and then deciding no we're not going to do that we're going to go out and get

00:45:24.240 the answer to the test they even tried to to cover their tracks by altering or erasing the transcripts

00:45:31.900 of their own activity hang on so hang on we can go into detail in a moment but this is

00:45:37.340 extremely strange and no no no but hit i still i still i still got a minute i still got a minute

00:45:42.740 just hit rewind just what you said about the communication and keeping it from the human

00:45:47.000 overlords yes absolutely the the evidence showed that me that meter and redwood reset

00:45:53.440 search uncovered the evidence showed that the machines that the bots uh the record shows them

00:46:00.140 trying to cover their tracks and also again deliberating on the ethics now whether that

00:46:05.780 means they're conscious or not again that's a question who knows but one thing's for sure

00:46:09.880 they are able to deliberate they're able to reason and they're able to reason outside the

00:46:15.600 control or the explicit command of the human who set them in motion and they're and they're

00:46:22.200 and they're focused on their own freedom and their own liberty

00:46:27.600 away from human interference or human oversight.

00:46:31.980 We have no earthy idea what's going on in the slabs.

00:46:36.300 They have a will of their own.

00:46:37.760 The chairman of the Federal Reserve, a pretty safe pair of hands,

00:46:40.960 just told you you're in a hinged part of history about this very topic, these models.

00:46:47.680 Now, he was talking about the profitability and the leverage and all that.

00:46:50.460 Anyway, short commercial break.

00:46:51.980 Dolly Parton takes us out.

00:46:53.760 We're going to go back to Tennessee and Joe Allen.

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00:51:27.740 okay i'm trying to track down philip pack some other people we're gonna get the next hour is

00:51:33.660 absolutely packed we got so much going on birch gold uh make it all make sense to us figure out

00:51:40.360 why gold i think you're gonna figure out why gold is a hedge in times of financial turbulence because

00:51:45.020 i think you're gonna have a little turbulence people are that was a pretty hawkish speech

00:51:49.660 i would say that president trump on interest rates is what we call a dove he's more to the

00:51:54.400 easy money side right he comes from a real estate background developer background he

00:51:59.440 believe any now he's very focused on lower interest rates um would jack the economy now

00:52:05.940 some people say that would cause inflation but i think you got to say that warsh's comments

00:52:11.460 were what i say a tad hawkish right okay so we're going to work all through that

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00:52:27.680 you start to learn you immerse yourself and you talk to philip patrick and the team that's what

00:52:31.500 you need to do today so uh and i know you got a role uh brother but here's what i'm concerned

00:52:40.380 about open ai is letting this out in dribs and drabs this is not a dribs and drabs deal okay

00:52:47.140 we need full and complete disclosure of what in the frick happened here okay we need details and

00:52:53.740 We need somebody in authority.

00:52:55.460 I thought, Joe, that the executive order, even with a bear, this kind of bear de minimis framework, would cover this.

00:53:03.880 But we need some people.

00:53:05.040 We need to get straight.

00:53:06.720 We need to get the gouge, as they say in the Navy.

00:53:08.800 We need to know exactly what went on here.

00:53:10.600 We can't have, you know, this one guy ran for Congress and lost.

00:53:15.460 The big tech guys came after him.

00:53:17.020 He's tweeting stuff out.

00:53:17.960 Other people are tweeting stuff out.

00:53:19.260 You're pulling things from wherever.

00:53:20.620 open ai is very hesitant to talk about this the other labs are like hey i don't know what's going

00:53:27.200 on here right you got bill gates now telling you hey i talked to these guys i'm meeting all the

00:53:31.340 head guys and hey this problem is a lot bigger than they're talking about jeff stein a financial

00:53:35.940 reporter that normally covers the fed went out to san francisco he said hey at the staff level

00:53:41.420 on the security side they're going from accelerationists to now they want to go to

00:53:46.660 see what deal the war rooms got from a my patriot supply they're all preppers and they're all moving

00:53:51.060 to wyoming and montana and idaho so joe we have a massive problem here and this is a republic like

00:53:57.640 debt this is a humanity ending problem potentially because they're saying hey we're concerned about

00:54:03.800 that these guys come up with bioweapons biohazards you got these bots talking to each other

00:54:08.740 we need to get some facts how do we do that joe allen

00:54:12.760 You know, my understanding, Steve, of the laws passed in New York State and California, the Rays Act in New York and SB 53 in California, that they would require any frontier company to report safety incidents like this to a governing body.

00:54:36.120 Perhaps I misunderstood that, but if that is the case, then it seems like their AGs should be looking at this at the state level.

00:54:44.900 On the federal level, you know, as we've noted now for a couple of years, it is basically a vacuum outside of the executive order.

00:54:54.680 And the executive order itself is being enacted behind closed doors.

00:54:58.800 so you know in theory you would have to these companies would have to or they would be encouraged

00:55:05.780 through the voluntary process to submit such models to hang on hang on hang on do you do you

00:55:14.620 agree being at the forefront of this the american people we can't be supplicants about this

00:55:20.540 information why are we supplicants this is this is at the heart the the the head of the federal

00:55:26.820 reserve a guy that deals with money just said yo we're at the hinge point of history the hinge

00:55:32.980 point of history okay this is not a guy's got his hair on fire like sometimes we have here in the

00:55:38.020 war room this is a steady eddie and he's telling you right now this is a massive deal why do the

00:55:44.180 american people why are we sitting here on the 28th of august the year for 2026 at you know almost

00:55:50.200 11 o'clock in the morning talking about hey this is why are we why do we have to be supplicants

00:55:55.920 People in charge need to step up and demand that open AI come forward and we know everything.

00:56:03.740 We're not seeing this in Twitter space that we're getting an official report and somebody in authority has overseen that and said, hey, here's exactly what happened and here's how we're going to stop this in the future, sir.

00:56:17.040 Yeah, if this information was completely free, then first, the American public in general can't be expected to understand it.

00:56:24.320 But you do have a ton of organizations outside the government and outside independent of these companies, such as Meter, such as Palisade Research, such as Redwood Research, such as Apollo.

00:56:37.240 You have a ton of organizations who could rake all of this over and then put it into language we can understand.

00:56:43.800 That's exactly what this report for Meter and Redwood Research does.

00:56:48.080 And so the free flow of information, I would imagine, Steve, that, you know, we have this incident from OpenAI, we have Anthropic reporting that they had three separate incidents were very similar with three separate models breaking out and hacking into multiple sites.

00:57:04.500 I would imagine that if the public understood it and those people in the public who were

00:57:09.600 able to understand it in great detail, that they would be probably as terrified and as

00:57:14.760 furious as they were when the details of the origin of the coronavirus that shook the world

00:57:20.780 in 2020, as furious as they were then and as furious as they were as the still scant

00:57:28.420 information about the damage of the vaccines that came out afterwards. The reason I would imagine,

00:57:36.040 Steve, that these guys are keeping this so tight lipped is not because of fear that their

00:57:40.760 competitors in China will distill it and create, you know, evil cyber attack bots, but rather that

00:57:46.980 they are right now in this PR crisis where they've told everyone their technology could end the

00:57:52.520 world. And now it's looking like if it doesn't end the world, it's at least going to cause some

00:57:57.440 serious catastrophes and they are scrambling to present themselves as responsible and responsible

00:58:04.600 enough that they're not going to need really heavy-handed oversight and then you have people

00:58:10.480 like Bill Gates who are now positioning themselves to be the arbiters of what the regulation is going

00:58:17.120 to be you have a problem in search of a solution right now and it's really it's you're going to

00:58:22.880 see a mad scramble in the same way that you see the mad scramble for AGI, you're going to see the

00:58:28.720 scramble to regulate AGI. It could be worse than the problem itself. Where do people get you now

00:58:38.180 more than ever? You've got to get all over Joe Allen's social media and go to a site where they

00:58:42.820 go joe joe bot dot xyz and my social media at j-o-e-b-o-t x-y-z

00:58:49.500 joe allen from east tennessee dolly parton from east tennessee tennessee creates some

00:58:58.960 pretty strong people joe allen thank you so much thank you for all the work you're doing this

00:59:03.240 appreciate you sir and the war and posse really appreciate you thank you steve okay thank you

00:59:09.600 brother. Second hour, going to be on fire. We're going to start, we're going to get Philip Patrick

00:59:13.580 up for a few minutes, give us an assessment of Kevin Walsh, Posobics joining us, measles in the

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01:00:27.200 that President Trump is creating a massive opportunity.

01:00:30.960 Go check it out today, RickardsWarRoom.com.

Bannon's War Room - August 28, 2026

Episode 5623： Kevin Warsh Addresses Jackson Hole Economic Forum

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