00:03:21.740Walk the audience through, because you had some great called shots in 2024.
00:03:26.980You've used the same kind of analytical techniques and tools to do this.
00:03:32.100But walk us through the jewel in the crown of the Union, the great state of Texas, and where we are, sir.
00:03:39.540Well, interestingly enough, the recently initiated French and Indian War has a hand to play in where Texas is going this fall.
00:03:48.720Now, Paxton is running in a different state.
00:03:51.080He's defending a Senate seat – well, it's not his yet, but it's a Republican-held Senate seat that in a state, President Trump won by almost 14 points, which is a lot different than the plus-nine state that Ted Cruz defended in 2018 when nobody really thought Democrats had a chance to run a close race.
00:04:08.060I like to say that Ted Cruz spotted the sniper in 2018, and the result was that 90 percent turnout from the 2016 presidential election and a lot of the GOP strongholds.
00:04:18.060The key in understanding Texas today, as compared to the Texas of 2018 and 2020, is that we've got another 700,000-plus Republican margin stacked onto the presidential vote because of the shift in the Latino counties.
00:04:31.780107 counties in Texas actually shifted Republican toward Cruz from the 2016 presidential margin against Beto O'Rourke.
00:04:38.920So what we have here is the likelihood that I would consider Paxton probably going to land in the 2020 presidential range in a lot of these Latino counties.
00:04:49.020Now, Richard's going to come on and get very specific with that demographic data.
00:04:53.000But I ran a pessimistic model, just like I ran in 2024 with the seven decisive states.
00:04:58.460Six of my seven pessimistic models, President Trump blew past.
00:05:02.080In my pessimistic model, I'm setting turnout share from presidential vote of 2016 equal to the O'Rourke turnout share in places like Travis, Bear, Harris, and Dallas County, 10 counties, and I'm reducing margins for Paxson five points from President Trump all throughout the red counties and setting back counties like Cameron Hidalgo to the 2020 presidential margins.
00:05:25.640And what I find is that despite the gains that I'm giving Tallarico, I'm even moving margins five points back in the turnout-boosted counties, even with those gains, because of the growth of the small Republican counties like your Woods and your Graysons and your Franklins and the shift in Latino vote, I still have Paxton, a very small favorite in the worst-case scenario.
00:05:45.040Now, the worst-case scenario is exactly that, and if the turnout comes home, I think Richard will probably confirm that there is a wound in Paxton's polling from the primary with Cornyn.
00:05:54.940Ted Cruz did not have a contested primary in 2018.
00:05:57.600Therefore, his polling looked quite a bit better.
00:05:59.760Let me just ask you, in your analysis, how do you calculate we're hearing, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas, that you've had a real drop-off in the intensity of the Hispanic vote, not really even for immigration, but really for where they sense the economy is?
00:06:19.380Are you factoring that into your calculation?
00:06:23.540Look, those counties trended more for Cruz in 2018 than they did for Trump.
00:06:27.960Now, Trump pulled off a standard GOP Hispanic share in 2016, didn't start making progress until 18 and 20.
00:06:34.360I'm setting those margins back to the 2020 levels to account for exactly that.
00:06:38.600I think that Trump probably pulled a rabbit out of the hat and was 20-plus years ahead of where your standard Republican will be in those counties.
00:06:45.800He flipped a number of counties that had never voted for a Republican presidential nominee or not since 1920, like in the case of Webb County.
00:06:53.000Richard will probably confirm that it is difficult to pull a Latino vote because Texas is a state that's always had a very large Latino population.
00:07:01.120It's difficult to separate that population out as opposed to a place like northern New Jersey.
00:07:06.800So Paxton's numbers in Texas are going to be driven by a better Latino share than 2016, I'm confident.
00:07:13.720Most of the Latino polling in Texas in 2024 was off by a lot.0.95
00:07:17.140I found polls off by more than 30 points with Latino share.
00:07:20.380Trump wound up winning 55% of the Latino vote that we even know how to count.
00:07:25.060And then you have the other issue, which is El Paso County.
00:07:32.960He won El Paso by eight points more in 2018 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 because he got the hometown boost.
00:07:41.640And that, like the other large Latino counties, did not shift more Republican.
00:07:46.040So O'Rourke wound up winning El Paso County by 100,000 votes.
00:07:49.180If I set El Paso County back to the 2020 presidential, which was still D plus 35, Paxton will make up 32,000 in margin just because Tallarico is not from El Paso.
00:08:00.260So that's one major Democrat lifeline I consider Tallarico to be down, and then he's going to have to make that up in Harris, Bear, Travis, Dallas, Denton, Collin Counties.
00:08:09.080And in my model, I have Collin County flipping to Tallarico, and Paxton still wins it by a hair.
00:08:13.800So if the results come out more normalized and he holds his ground in counties with a large working class population like Harris, Paxton should win somewhere in the mid-single digits.
00:08:23.700Okay, so give me mid-single digits, but tell me, what's your worst-case scenario? Before I get Barris on here, I might ask you to stick around.
00:08:30.540What's your worst-case scenario for a victory for Paxton?
00:08:37.080So I'm looking at about 10 and a quarter million votes.
00:08:40.800So worst case scenario for Paxton would be a tilt margin, almost dead even.
00:10:09.800So this is to help people understand how much rural Texas and Hispanic South Texas has moved.
00:10:16.740Trump finished $215,000 stronger in raw margin in 2024 than he did in 2016 in Hispanic South Texas.
00:10:25.760This does not include gains he made in places like Bexar County, which is San Antonio, or in Harris County, which is Houston, and in El Paso County, which should definitely benefit Paxson.
00:10:36.500Tallarico also has a Jasmine Crockett problem.0.91
00:10:39.120They're going to need every piece of black turnout and black margin in East Texas and Dallas and Houston to build a place off these guys.0.95
00:10:45.960They're not going to turn out and vote for him.0.99
00:16:41.720But once again, just reiterate your assessment of why Tala Frico is chasing Fox News and chasing Ken Paxson to have a debate, sir.
00:16:54.920Well, look, any intelligence analysis is going to include the most dangerous course of action.
00:16:59.320That includes running a pessimistic scenario like this or maybe in Richard's case, waiting a poll a certain way to determine certain answers.
00:17:06.680But if Talarico were ahead five or six points, he's going to let the sleeping dogs lie and let the midterm dynamics work and let those reversions to margins work and not alert people that he's about to make off with an easy win.
00:17:19.220If he's up one or two points with a sub-50 percent mark, then asking for a debate with Paxton is likely to expose his anti-Christian, anti-gun, anti-immigration enforcement positions, and that's going to cost the undecided vote.
00:17:33.560And then, of course, you have the other scenario where he's asking for a debate because he needs one.0.68
00:17:38.400You know, here in Arizona, Katie Hobbs is writing incumbency.
00:17:41.600We haven't fired a governor in Arizona for 60 years, and Andy Biggs is the one that wants and needs the debates that she won't give.
00:17:47.640So to me, the fact that Tallarico is begging for debates while supposedly leading is a tell not that he's not going to cut a lot of Trump's margin off.
00:17:55.700It's a tell that they've got the math as well, because they're trying to run away almost a 1.6 million vote margin in a race that more represents the presidential vote than these individual House races that are volatile may do.
00:18:08.160And another point, Steve, is that if you're going to sell me on a we're offended by this Republican candidate, I would be getting sold that on both French, who is expected to win his race along with the Republican ticket.
00:18:19.060Abbott has never won a race by less than 11 points.
00:18:22.020There's no way with the opponent he's facing with very little name recognition that he's going to be in a close race.
00:18:27.540Now, there was 11 points between Abbott and Cruz in 2018.
00:18:31.900So Paxton's goal, obviously, is to ride as close to Abbott in this race as possible.
00:18:36.520Seth, we're going to have you back on.
00:18:37.880We're going to talk about the both French and Indian wars when we get you back on.
00:18:41.940Natalie's going to be here about the situation in Rochester.
00:18:44.180sir. Gord's going to be here about the situation with the truckers, all about foreign workers.
00:18:49.680Where do people go, Captain, to get all your information before you come back up on the
00:18:54.080war room, sir? Well, my primary headquarters, especially for election season, which is a season
00:18:59.820now that mail-in ballot season is underway, is CaptainK.us. That's on my substack. And on X,
00:19:05.420I'm at RealSKeshul. Okay, last thing, because I know you're a baseball stats freak. That's how
00:19:10.960you get into all your assessments, who do you like in the National League?
00:19:14.600Who do you like in the American League?
00:19:16.540Well, it's really tough to bet against the Dodgers.
00:24:15.820Yeah, I spoke here a couple of years ago with those guys, and they get permits from the Capitol Hill Police here in D.C., and it's a good event.
00:24:23.980And Derek Bars from the Federal Mortar Carrier Safety Administration will be speaking there tomorrow along with myself, Todd Spencer of Oida, a whole number of people,0.79
00:24:31.480my buddy James Year, who's been really great on documenting what's going on with autonomous trucks and the attempt to replace American drivers after we've already been replaced by foreign laborers.
00:24:41.460Can I get into the road? This is amazing.0.89
00:24:43.480End of the Road, Inside the War on the Truckers.
00:25:07.920And I tell people when I went over for the I literally left the show on a on a on a Friday and on Monday I was announced as Trump's running Trump's campaign.
00:25:20.040All I did was take the knowledge on the call ins from the truckers and applied to the campaign.
00:25:24.880And Trump came from behind and won. The truckers have a great feel of this country.
00:25:28.740You're being this one I don't get for being the backbone of the country.
00:25:32.720You've got the autonomous thing, which I don't get at all. And the foreign labor.0.99
00:25:36.980Yeah, we're being squeezed from all sides.
00:26:09.980It's been used to extract money from the taxpayer to keep recycling new drivers through the industry.0.97
00:26:15.000The newer innovation is to cycle in foreign, often illegal, mostly incompetent and illiterate foreign labor onto our roads.0.99
00:26:23.520And, you know, Stephen Miller a couple of months ago said, you know, they estimate that up to a third of America's truckers have been displaced by this labor.1.00
00:26:32.140Tell me, how many American truckers are driving truck in Serbia?
00:26:35.740or Pakistan, or India, or Guatemala, or anywhere else on Earth.
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00:30:17.100you're the backbone of the country. Why do we have Elon on one side and all these maniacs
00:30:22.220with automated driving, which nobody trusts? And on the other side, why is Wall Street and the
00:30:27.280corporations just obsessed with getting foreigners in here who cause crashes, don't understand the0.99
00:30:33.280rules of the road, don't speak English, can't read signs? Why is there even a war on the truckers
00:30:38.760when the truckers are the backbone of the nation? Well, it's the parasitism of greed is the best I
00:30:44.540can come to it um it's estimated that truckers total salary so you take every truck driver in
00:30:50.560america add up all their salaries it's about a 200 billion dollar a year bag um why should we have it
00:30:56.840when they can have it right so that's that's sort of the it's all about that money that would go
00:31:00.900right back it's the driving animus the technology wants to take it and or the guys just want to get
00:31:06.940foreign labor in for cheaper cheaper right yeah and it's it's you know it's sort of i hate to
00:31:10.900sound like a leftist but it's part of capitalism drive costs down as far as they can go and they've
00:31:15.620gone as far as they can go with like exporting labor and you know i understand president trump
00:31:20.140is trying to reshore some stuff and secretary duffy god bless him has tried to help the the
00:31:24.620truckers in in some ways but uh yeah they they just want to keep extracting value out of the
00:31:29.800hides of americans in any way they can so the truckers had enough of it oh totally i mean like
00:31:36.500i say i my book's been very well received i was on your buddy tucker carlson's show a couple times
00:31:41.320um drivers there are salaries have been frozen in time right like on average the truck driver's
00:31:48.400salary today is around 50 60 percent of what it once was in inflation adjusted dollars from 1980
00:31:54.620hold it give me that again the trucker's annual salary average annual salary in america today
00:32:00.980is frozen in time it's basically around 50 to 60 percent of what it was in 1980 in inflation
00:32:07.200adjusted dollars is this why so hard you are are you having a tough time recruiting and we work
00:32:12.040way more than everybody else we work 60 70 80 hours a week some guys spend weeks away from home
00:32:17.080this is is it making it harder to recruit well yeah i mean we've had a retention problem forever
00:32:21.920because nobody wants to solve this so it's easier again i mentioned the american trucking
00:32:26.020associations before they found a novel way to offload the cost of training new drivers onto
00:32:31.680the taxpayer through these cdl mills which were mostly paid for by state and federal funds this
00:32:37.020is where they get the commercial this is where they get new drivers and then those same companies
00:32:40.980go through 80 to 100 of their drivers every year they turn through them right and then this system
00:32:46.320this ecosystem of truck driving schools meets the biden administration who during covid gave all of
00:32:52.360them carte blanche to just give cdls to whoever the hell they wanted and that's why we've seen
00:32:56.940the industry flooded with all these people from all over the world foreign gangsters have taken
00:33:01.280advantage of this there's trucking companies that are headquartered in ukraine russia serbia india
00:33:06.280and those guys only employ their own and they've taken advantage of all these holes in our system
00:33:11.140that we created ourselves two two things give me the quick what what do we need what does this
00:33:15.600audience need to do tell us what we need so there's a bug your uh legislators to pass there's
00:33:20.260something in front of congress called delilah's law which seeks to clamp down on a bunch of this
00:33:24.160it's been in committee because delilah was killed yeah yeah delilah coleman no she wasn't killed
00:33:28.600she was seriously injured in a car wreck by an illegal trucker from india um that law is named
00:33:33.720after her it's meant to do something about these non-domiciled cdls and and you and you know
00:33:39.580support your truckers and support human truckers why should we go and buy this book today it lays
00:33:47.800out how we got here right it was published in march and it goes from 19 the history of trucking
00:33:53.400goes back to when trucks were first invented at the turn of the century my book focuses on from
00:33:58.220the motor carrier act of 1980 to today and all of the recent policy changes economic forces cultural
00:34:04.680forces and everything that's taken place to displace the american trucker i have a chapter
00:34:09.920about the freedom convoy back home in canada loved it shout out chris barber he parked his
00:34:14.100trucks today in solidarity with everybody um you know there's just been if we don't save the
00:34:19.400truckers if we don't save the american truckers we're not going to have a country you agree with
00:34:22.820that i mean it's going to make it a whole lot more difficult to feed everyone that's for sure
00:34:26.320love you bro look forward to having you back i'm gonna read this book over the weekend then we're
00:34:31.120gonna get back to you end of the road by gorg mcgill amazing and you're like central casting
00:34:36.380but president trump said he's in central casting just incredible thank you for dropping by
00:34:41.680Okay, we had a viral story last night. I had more to do with Natalie and more stories she's breaking on Substack, but Natalie Winters joins us. Natalie, I need you just to go back to the story last night that went viral.
00:34:55.760sure well i've already done a follow-up which you have to go to my x and my sub stack to read this
00:35:04.060but denver if you want to roll this thread as i speak just so we can get the full effect
00:35:09.980um there are now i have identified even more residency classes where the percentage in some
00:35:16.740case it is 100 where the people in these internal residents or internal medicine residency classes
00:35:24.200are entirely foreigners. You can see the pictures there. That is in San Francisco. Four of them are
00:35:30.980just straight up Chinese. They trained in China. One of them is from the Philippines. United Health0.95
00:35:36.320Services in Johnson City, New York, all 14 residents listed in their 2026 entering three-year
00:35:43.820internal medicine class. They all attended medical school abroad. And this isn't just the Americans
00:35:49.180going abroad. They're basically all Pakistani. You can see the pictures. This thread goes on0.99
00:35:54.060and on and on and on i identified several other classes where they're all foreigners in some
00:35:59.620cases like i said 100 but still several i mean nearly a dozen where it's over 75 and like i
00:36:09.160was saying yesterday steve it's very hard to get the numbers on these right it's by design just
00:36:14.460like you know oh we can't tell you how much farm is owned by the chinese it's an interesting data0.89
00:36:18.580point that you would think the government would care to know but they don't want you to know
00:36:21.780But of the analysis that we can do, in 2026, nearly one in three internal medicine residency spots went to doctors who are not U.S. citizens and attended medical school abroad.
00:36:38.920They filled 6,733 first-year spots, and the real staggering number here, Steve, is that that is a 47% jump since just 2022.
00:36:53.640Now, the other very important prong of all of this, when you see the convergence and how you get to a medical establishment, that is, I mean, in 10 years.
00:37:04.260Hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on, full stop.
00:37:07.160This is like you're saying, you blow my head up and don't.1.00
00:37:31.020Yes, that are going into these residency programs are foreigners and went to foreign
00:37:36.440Medical school is nearly 50% increase since 2022. Like I said, it's nearly 7,000 kids.
00:37:43.040And the interesting thing, Steve, too, is that there's around 1,500 American medical students and also DOs who did not get into medical school.
00:37:52.900The remainder did get residency positions. The remainder did, but there are basically 1,500 or so Americans that were gypped by these foreigners coming predominantly from India.0.77
00:38:03.660Pakistan is another top sender, but India basically takes the cake.0.91
00:38:10.400But it's interesting, Steve, too, because you have to kind of think about what it is.0.99
00:38:13.240But hang on, but hang on, hang on, hang on, slow down.
00:38:23.520Why is it that we can't fill that one-third that is filled by foreigners, and you're saying a great majority of these go to foreign medical schools in which we have absolutely no controls over their standards, why can they not be filled with American kids?
00:38:44.400ma'am. So the broader, for all disciplines, I believe the numbers are around 17.6% of all
00:38:55.3402026 residents, not just internal medicine. And I actually have a brother who is currently in
00:39:00.560medical school as we speak. I'm curious who his classmates are. My father's a doctor,
00:39:05.540and he's told me some interesting stories about the new compositions of basically all the doctors
00:39:11.120he's training. They're either all foreigners or they're not conventional Americans. But like I
00:39:19.280was saying, Steve, by the way, it's even worse for nurses. But the reason why you can't fill it,
00:39:23.340it's not that you can't fill it. You can, but it's about just like what the truck drivers are
00:39:27.540talking about. It's cheaper. They don't care. The people running these programs have no allegiance
00:39:32.120to the United States. Like the program that we exposed yesterday, particularly operating in
00:39:38.320rochester new york where the picture of basically 80 indians out of the 82 person class it's a tech
00:39:44.360visa program sponsored and funded by google's eric schmidt and a bunch of alums from the biden
00:39:49.460regime who used to work at uscis but what do they really want right what's the end game here
00:39:54.900what does this create a system in which all your doctors are basically just foreigners they've
00:40:01.700started rolling this out primarily in rural communities as you were saying yesterday there's
00:40:06.740a real push to get these people there. But this whole inflation, like I was saying, it's a jump
00:40:11.660since 2022 of 50%. That's ridiculous. It is part of a broader strategy, like we were talking about
00:40:18.680yesterday, how now in 24 states, you don't, if you're a foreigner, you don't even have to be a
00:40:26.020citizen in the United States, or even have gone to medical school in the United States, or gone
00:40:32.380to medical school at all, the way the law is written is very shady. But to be able to practice
00:40:37.920as a doctor, they have these new kind of, you know, apprenticeship programs where they're
00:40:43.500changing the regulation. For example, in Arkansas, you can, you have a pathway to become a practicing
00:40:49.340doctor, quote, without US or foreign postgraduate training. Like I said, this is happening in 24
00:40:57.480states plus Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands and in another 17 states. So basically every state
00:41:05.180they have pending or recent legislation that is already pushing this pipeline. And Steve,
00:41:10.140the real damning fact here and how you know this is supposed to be pulling the wool over all of
00:41:15.460our eyes, they are not required to report how many doctors, foreign doctors are practicing
00:42:04.580And it is happening, and it's what they feel.
00:42:07.920They're also California residents, and my brother's in medical school in Texas, not doxing anyone.
00:42:12.060But they can see how in every aspect of their life, it has become literally a thousand times more difficult for Americans to be able to not just access basic services,
00:42:22.540in their country and live as Americans and not have their government repress them,1.00
00:42:27.620basically at the favor and behest of other foreigners. But it was so difficult for my0.81
00:42:32.440brother to get into medical school. And I know, you know, most of his friends, similarly, you know,
00:42:37.380straight white dudes, it was so difficult for them. And you look at the composition of these
00:42:42.080medical classes, by the way, take the foreigner portion out of it. You know, it's mainly people
00:42:47.920who are not white, who are not men, right? It's the DEI thing. So if you're just a normal American0.71
00:42:52.320man particularly you have nothing that is set up to basically make life not just easy for you but0.99
00:43:00.340fair you either have to be a foreigner with no allegiance to this country or some bizarre you1.00
00:43:06.680know ethnic minority group and it's just it's this weird inversion of meritocracy and i would think i1.00
00:43:13.260would hope sure push dei in the gender studies departments but for the love of god let's keep1.00
00:43:19.460it out of medicine where when you're sitting on an operating table you know the best you can get0.99
00:43:24.740is you hope that your h1b doctor is from south korea instead of india like how about it's an
00:43:30.340american that can speak english hang on for uh hang on for one minute we're gonna have natalie0.75
00:43:37.600winters on the other side we rejoice when there's no more let's take down the cc
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