00:06:32.080Even if he offers up these pardons, been having a lot of conversations with congressional Democrats.
00:06:37.660There are a lot of things that they can still do.
00:06:41.140People are not going to get out of this administration scot-free, and I'd also issue a warning to my fellow conservatives out there.
00:06:47.900If you really want a presidential administration to be able to use a tiny office inside of DHS of a couple of contractors to be able to review the voter rolls in every state and then go decide whether people get to exercise their democratic rights, you ain't going to like that when a Democrat's president.
00:07:04.760You ain't going to want to imbue that kind of power in some little tiny black box office that I used to oversee at DHS and allow them to determine and influence Americans' rights to vote.
00:07:17.100So I think there is, on the back end of this, going to be much, much bigger reforms than we saw in the wake of the Watergate era.0.85
00:07:23.740All right, Peter's back with us. Let's talk about polling.
00:07:25.780Is this just a product of pollsters just really not wanting to be wrong and are trying to invent ways to say we could be wrong?
00:07:34.300Maybe it's this because the polling does look so outrageously bad for Republicans right now.
00:07:40.400Yeah, I mean, that would be what what pollsters and data folks call herding, that that pollsters, not great ones, probably are, you know, directing their polls to align with the news cycle and sentiment.
00:07:52.380Good pollsters will model, they'll correct for non-response bias or the inability to reach voters via landline cell phone with their models.
00:08:03.240I did find this echelon poll interesting because, look, the generic ballot lead for Democrats nationally, according to Nate Silver, on the average is about nine points right now.
00:08:12.400State Navigate in Virginia, a Virginia-based data firm, has the generic ballot lead for Democrats at 20 points.
00:08:18.640Virginia is obviously more blue-purple leading than some of these other states
00:08:22.460The echelon numbers that I wrote about that you cited
00:08:26.020Had a three-point lead for Republicans
00:08:29.740When factored in the neighbor question
00:08:33.420And look, I mean, this is not bulletproof
00:08:36.520But the USC Dornsife Center out here in Los Angeles
00:09:11.120They think Democrats are going to win.
00:09:13.060But this gives them a little air cover,
00:09:14.940this question to maybe say what they really think. The other thing, too, is like this could just be
00:09:20.180an outlier, Katie. I mean, I don't think anyone really thinks that Republicans have a three point
00:09:24.320lead on the generic ballot, but it does suggest that these races could be closer than some of
00:09:30.720the polls are showing. And look, this happened in 2020. There were plenty of races. And that
00:09:34.860was a presidential year. Different, different scenario. But a lot of the states on the ballot
00:09:38.700this year, South Carolina, Iowa, you know, some of those races have Democrats winning in polls,
00:09:43.600Good polls. New York Times-Siena poll had Democrats winning in some of those races, and Republicans ended up outperforming the polls.
00:09:50.220One more thing that's very interesting, Katie. Fox did polls yesterday where they asked Texas, for example, do you want James Tallarica or Ken Paxton to win?
00:09:58.120Tallarica was up by two in that poll. The same poll asked, who do you want to control the Senate?
00:10:04.060And Texas voters said Republicans by one. So that's a sort of another wrinkle here, which is, you know, some voters in these states say they want a divided Senate.
00:10:12.640Yeah. And there's also just a feeling this is what I was getting when I was in Texas. And this I'm a little less I'm a little more skeptical of the polling in Texas having been there because I did just get a lot of I'm going to vote for the team, which was the message from Angie Nixon, which it means you have a terrible candidate.
00:10:31.380But the polling or the Republican impulse, it's just so deeply ingrained in Texas.
00:10:39.120And it feels like it's hard to break, which makes me wonder about what you found or what you're reporting about, which is, are pollsters getting honest answers or are they just getting the answers that people think they want to hear?
00:10:52.480Yeah. And there's also the question, this is a midterm year.
00:10:54.660It's about base turnout and enthusiasm.
00:10:57.200There could be, you know, some of those voters you talked to in Texas, Katie, you know, maybe they didn't want to tell you who they were voting for.
00:11:04.380Maybe, as John DelVolpe said in that previous segment, they're going to vote for Democrats.
00:14:52.460Luke Macias, DeGrasse on the other side.
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00:17:54.280okay the media is in place the pool's in place and uh i think the president's gonna be coming
00:18:00.360out we're gonna cut we got uh mccabe's out there today with a whole gag i believe the president's
00:18:05.840gonna talk take questions from the media as he is want to do we're gonna cover that uh luke
00:18:11.100messiah so luke reality check this is all and we're gonna have a couple of the pastors on today
00:18:16.560one has gone around nationwide uh the other from texas talking about you talked about souls to the
00:18:22.760polls that the Democrats have. I mean, these churches back the church buses up, the school
00:18:27.240buses up, and man, they're rolling on Sunday. We don't really have anything that organized. However,
00:18:33.460I believe this is going to come down to a big participation of the Christian vote,
00:18:38.000not simply in Texas, but Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi, Florida, where the
00:18:44.060presidents come today. I think the secret weapon we have here is the Christians that we just have
00:18:50.580to have turnout. What's your sense right now of like Harris County, others? Because you talked0.82
00:18:54.980about Tarrant County, which is one of the most red counties in the country. And I think of size,
00:19:02.260of scale in the state of Texas, where they're turning out now, are they just turning out their
00:19:07.940higher propensity for voters to kind of use it as a psyop and a shock treatment to people? So the
00:19:16.120Media Every Day, Rachel Maddow and MSNBC, are laughing at us as they laughed at us in 24,
00:19:22.320as they laughed at us in 22, as they laughed at 20 and 16, these races we won? Or is this real
00:19:28.780and meaningful, sir? 4D voters, meaning people who voted in four of the last four Democrat primaries,
00:19:37.160historically, about 39% of them would vote in the first three days, and 47% of them voted in the
00:19:43.960first three days. Now, historically for Republicans, 37% of our four R voters would
00:19:50.040have voted. And guess what? 37% voted. 28% of our three R's should have voted. 29% had voted.
00:19:58.960We are basically either at or just above what our typical midterm turnout is, where Democrats in
00:20:05.500every one of those buckets have an anywhere from 10 to two or three point advantage of what's gone
00:20:09.840up. Now, the silver lining to that is they're cannibalizing people that should participate.
00:20:15.540At the end of the day, most of those people should participate. But let's say they just
00:20:19.400keep a one or two or three point advantage in some of those buckets over what we have.
00:20:24.460Steve, the problem is we lose counties like Williamson County and Tarrant County to the
00:20:29.100Democrats if that happens. So one of it is turning out our base quicker. Democrats also now have
00:20:34.380afforded themselves more energy to go after a low propensity. Now, thank God they haven't found a
00:20:38.780lot of low propensity in texas to turn out but that's what we have to do we have to not only
00:20:43.100turn our base out we have to go find the rest of our friends and i spent yesterday reaching out to
00:20:47.960a bunch of people who are less engaged in the political process to make sure that they not
00:20:51.700only vote but vote this week i told them i need to know if you get hit by a bus on sunday that
00:20:56.680you already cast your ballot before that happens so you have friday and saturday to bank that vote
00:21:03.060And that's really what we're fighting against right now.
00:21:06.240I think the message, and correct me if I'm wrong, but this thing, it's totally in play.
00:21:12.280Don't believe the PSYOP, but it's going to be a struggle, and you're going to have to turn out.
00:21:18.760We're going to have to turn out not simply yourself.
00:21:21.540We're going to have to turn out your list of 10 to make sure that we don't have a blue wave.
00:21:27.060I don't think you say a blue wave, but to have these opportunistic pickups in places like Texas, in places like Georgia, in places like Kansas, is that a good way to assess it?
00:21:37.820I think if Republicans, yes, I think if Republicans keep showing up at the current rate, Texas will stay red, but Ken Paxton could lose.
00:21:45.020If we want Ken Paxton to not only win, but actually have a one or two or three point margin, it is going to take Republicans turning out now, get your vote banked, and then reaching out and telling your friends who haven't voted to get out and vote.
00:21:59.580And I've pushed this several times on several programs, Steve, and I'll just say it here.
00:22:04.160Abbott Impact, you can literally go to your app store, Abbott Impact, download it, okay?
00:22:09.900I know some people here aren't the biggest fans of Governor Abbott.
00:22:27.900And I'm telling you, not only did I get a dozen or so friends to vote this week that weren't going to vote, they've downloaded the app and are reaching out to their friends.
00:22:36.680And their friend circles are a lot less political than my friend circle, and half of my friends have not voted.
00:26:31.300Number one, you had Harry Enten, you had people at the big top of the show talking about the plunge and even legal migration and how that's going to affect the vote.
00:26:40.660I know we're going to talk about Omar and all that situation, but just give me the situation.
00:26:44.920There has been a plunge in kind of legal immigration under President Trump.
00:26:50.340Obviously, the MAGA base wants it to go to zero.
00:26:54.460We'd love to have a 10-year more term in this.
00:26:56.180But what is your sense of how that's going to affect this impact this election?
00:27:00.880I mean, the media is making this thing out like the drop in citizenship swearing ins for new citizens is plunged, that they've sort of orchestrated this so that there'll be fewer left wingers to vote for to vote blue.
00:27:16.620But actually, this has been going on from the very beginning of the Trump administration to revet and re-interview all of those who have come in through the system of LPR, refugee, asylum, all of these different kinds of family reunification, immigrant visas and that sort of thing to ultimately become citizens.
00:27:45.800But the problem is that it's riven with fraud, Steve.
00:27:50.120We know that if you lied about your refugee claim or your asylum claim and nobody, they just stamped you through under Biden five years down the line, you're going to go for your citizenship.
00:28:06.440But they're putting a full stop to that.
00:28:08.880Trump is putting a full stop to that and saying, wait, slow down.
00:28:11.680we're going to make sure that we don't emboss this thing in brass or cement, some kind of a
00:28:18.660fraud. And they're doing the right thing by just slowing the roll on citizenship. I don't think
00:28:25.940that this has anything to do with trying to, you know, swing the election or something all of a
00:28:31.000sudden now, like what they're saying, it's about doing the right thing. I don't think that the
00:28:36.140numbers are really big enough anyway to swing the election. The decline in citizenship approvals
00:28:43.900and that sort of thing, or denaturalizations is an even tinier number. So that's my take on it,
00:28:52.380Steve. Okay, hang on. We're going to take a short break. We're going to come back. We're
00:28:55.960going to talk about the national security issue around the Omar situation. It's not simply about
00:29:01.240omar marrying her brother oh that's a direct question not to my knowledge right great answer
00:29:09.880also carlos from the uh from the uh dallas express this great news source has got about care
00:29:16.840talk about national security you have a terrorist organization that it's endorsing candidates
00:29:21.900all over but particularly in the great state of texas we're going to cover all of that
00:29:26.200billy joe shaver i don't think we get in this cut i don't think we get to the john anderson
00:29:31.020part. Anyway, we're going to play the entire song
00:29:32.940as soon as we have time. President of the United States
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00:34:57.280Yeah, I have a piece out in The Daily Signal today about the broader implications of her investigation, the investigation of her, which, by the way, I just want to point out.
00:35:09.500I was reading the Washington Post yesterday or the day before.
00:44:12.460Well, I would say that it's a culture of emboldening care and emboldening some of these radical elements within the state.
00:44:19.320So I will say that, you know, they recommended 369 Texas candidates, and 18 of those are here in the DFW Metroplex, Tarrant County, Dallas County.
00:44:30.060They recommended people such as Ysak Warku, who was running against State Representative David Lewis, an Army combat veteran.
00:44:40.020Ysak's actually from Ethiopia, and he's actually a DSA member.
00:44:43.440I think that's one example of the Red-Green Alliance right there with this candidate.
00:44:50.180They've endorsed people such as Elizabeth Simmons that's running against Turner County Judge Tim O'Hare.
00:45:05.060So the reason why this is happening right now is because they have been emboldened for several years.
00:45:11.680I mean, you have people such as John Corrin having meetings with, you know, Pakistani leaders.
00:45:18.380You have people in the State House of Representatives, you know, less than two years ago, back in the 2025 session, you had them honoring Pakistan Day.
00:45:29.740And you had them, of course, honoring, you know, Islamic holidays as well.
00:45:33.820But at the local level, I will also give you some examples of what's happening.
00:45:38.420So, for example, the Mansfield mayor here in the state of Texas, he has, you know, campaigned with Muslims and gone to Islamic centers to get their votes.
00:45:50.720You know, that's happening in Mansfield, Texas, a tiny town here in Turing County.
00:45:55.240Not only that, but I think one example that people need to be aware of is the McKinney City Council vote that took place in August.
00:46:01.780It was the unanimous vote to approve an Islamic center, even though the overwhelming majority of residents that show them for that city council meeting, they were very much opposed to that zoning provisions.
00:46:17.600Of course, citizens are taking it in their hand to try to recall that.