00:11:08.920Let me just not play devil's advocate.
00:11:11.260I just want to make some observations so people can calculate this in.
00:11:14.640Steve Deese put up the other day, the talk radio host out in Iowa that knows the state pretty well.
00:11:21.900He put out kind of a hit the panic button.
00:11:24.260He says, hey, I'm looking at internal data.
00:11:27.760And particularly in what used to be Trump plus 10 plus 15.
00:11:31.780If you're a Trump plus 15, you're dead even.
00:11:34.700If you're plus 10 on internal polling, you're down four or five points.
00:11:40.840So places like the Iowa situation or even the soft hold in Virginia one.
00:11:45.940How concerned are you right now that this is where when they really hit the panic button, it's not these other pickups.
00:11:54.700It's that there's concern, even as we speak, that some of these that you just talked about, although we're Trump, you know, huge margins in 24, some of them are three-time wins, that people are very, very concerned for a number, you know, either it's Hispanics or another, it's the agricultural situation.
00:12:14.900But like in Iowa 3, these situations, people are telling us that it looks bad or they're very nervous from that side.
00:12:23.000So before we go beyond 2-14, because if you can get to this 2-14, right, in the run-up, then, you know, on game day, some things are going to break your way.
00:12:31.600You're really close to being able to pull this off.
00:12:34.500But these numbers, the five you had as your soft holds and these other seven, are absolutely critical that we put those in the win columns.
00:12:43.220Your thoughts from other sources you're hearing that people are saying, hey, I'm pretty scared about this district, sir?
00:12:50.400Well, look, I've heard these sorts of stories, these horror stories in every election cycle since I've been paying attention to this, and that's been more than a decade.
00:13:00.020Now, 2018 was not a good election in the House, but it was a good election in the Senate.
00:13:04.260So the electorate somewhat did a reversal and sided with the president's party in the Senate, which more resembles the presidential electorate.
00:13:11.900So, you know, I remember when people were saying that 35 percent of Republicans were going to vote for Hillary Clinton, and that turned out to actually be the opposite, that the number one indication of a Trump vote was Republican Party membership.
00:13:23.780So now I don't have a lot of data on the table yet from voting going on, but Florida is only about seven-tenths of a point left from the 2024 election as far as mail-in ballot by party returns go in Miami-Dade County, Palm Beach County, and Broward County are to the right as a shift.
00:13:44.180So Florida shows very little shift away from the 22 and 24 cycles in which they've had double-digit Republican wins.
00:13:50.780I would put pretty good money on Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody both winning somewhere in the double digits.
00:13:56.860So Florida has – I mean it may be becoming its own animal now given that it's post-2024 Florida.
00:14:04.400But it seems to be immune to any sort of blue wave, and I don't see that happening there.
00:14:09.540So in Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and Ohio, recently people that are hedging on polls are talking about how hard it is, how difficult it is to get rural whites in states like Texas.
00:14:21.980We're talking about R plus 80 demographic here to respond to these polls.
00:14:26.240So they're naturally underrepresented in polling.
00:14:28.260So I would assume any internal polls that don't look good are based on the same types of data.
00:14:32.980Some of these new polling methodologies have 1% or 2% response rates, and the biggest missing portion of electorate is often the rural white voter, which is now polarized at such a level that if they vote at all, it's going to mean good things for the GOP ticket.
00:17:22.360Jay Feeley, the former kicker for the Republicans, well, for the Cardinals, is running for the Republicans, I think has a 50-50 shot to hold the seat.
00:17:31.180Now, the other ones, they have a bit of nuance to them.
00:17:34.840Michigan 7 is one that I would give 75-25 odds for the Dems to flip if they had not nominated a DSA acolyte named William Lawrence,
00:17:44.120who is a hardcore left winger, who said all kinds of crazy stuff that Tom Barrett has used
00:17:50.040for his own reelection campaign. I think that that race probably favors Barrett.
00:17:54.540That's Slotkin's old seat right in the middle of Michigan. And then you have New York 17. This is
00:17:59.240Mike Lawler. Lawler, of course, is one of the more liberal members of Congress for the Republican
00:18:03.960Party. But this was a seat that Clinton and Biden won by a lot, by 10 plus points. Now, Trump, based
00:18:10.180on some improvements in the southern part of the district, almost flipped the district. Lawler won
00:18:14.300it by six points. Some people say that Lawler appears to be the favorite there based on his
00:18:19.640ability to do retail politics, but I think that's going to be a tight race there. If it's won by the
00:18:25.440GOP, it's a really good sign nationwide that there's not a lot of slippage in these tough areas.
00:18:30.620Ohio 7 is a seat that shouldn't even be on this list. This is Max Miller's seat that's only a
00:18:36.500vulnerable seat because of his own personal issues and his drama with bernie marino i have really no
00:18:42.220way to assess how that's gonna gonna go right now until i see more voting data on the early vote
00:18:47.240and i will tell you the urban centers in ohio look terrible for mail-in balloting and also on the
00:18:52.520first day of early voting nobody showed up so uh if the if the outskirts of cleveland don't show
00:18:58.080in cuyahoga county then miller should hold his seat then we go to pa hold on hold on let's let's
00:19:03.760to spend a second on that. I mean, that's going to be a tough one, right? Given all the stuff
00:19:08.540that's come out with the Max and the family problems and issues, that's going to be a reach,
00:19:14.400don't you think? Well, I had it in the bearish category until a couple of weeks ago. And I
00:19:20.560started to wonder if this is going to be the reverse Jay Jones, where everything in Virginia
00:19:24.620is saying that the Republicans are going to hold the seat because of this guy's issues.
00:19:28.100But we have such a short attention span as Americans these days. I'm not sure how relevant
00:19:33.120that issue is going to be when it comes time for people to get in the vote, especially if the
00:19:38.140Democrat areas don't bother to show up in the early vote. So that's the seat I'm going to have
00:19:42.640to make a judgment call on here in a couple of weeks when I get more turnout data. Yeah, got it.
00:19:48.040Keep going. Continue on. All right. Pennsylvania 8. There are three seats in PA. So everybody wants
00:19:53.100to talk about the governor's race. Shapiro's got the governor's race by a lot. Now, how much he
00:19:58.140wins it by may impact how successful Republicans are in the three seats that they're defending.
00:20:02.880So they have three incumbents running defenses. Pennsylvania 8 is a Trump plus 8. And this is in the far northeastern corner of the state. Lots of GOP traction there for 16 years, really. And Bresnahan has secured a lot of the key endorsements from local businesses, including Teamsters, up there in northeastern PA. So out of the three in Pennsylvania, I would say 8 is the best chance for the Republicans to hold.
00:20:32.880So Virginia 2 is Jen Kiggins' seat. Now, she won by four points in 2024. Trump barely carried Virginia 2's dirt by less than a point.1.00
00:20:42.660So her problem is that Virginia Beach especially, Virginia Beach City, is made up of precincts that my mapping would classify as caution precincts.
00:20:52.260These are Trump 1 precincts that have usually two cycles of left regression.
00:20:57.140Trump won Virginia 2, as it's currently drawn today, by six points in 2016, and he carried Virginia Beach City, and it's been all backwards since then.
00:21:05.360So if she can do okay with those and then benefit from low minority turnout in Suffolk City, Chesapeake, and in the northwestern portion of Virginia Beach City, then she has what we just said, a puncher's chance.
00:21:17.880I'm going to have to analyze the precinct data as the voting comes in, but so far, turnout in Virginia 2 has been pretty high.
00:21:23.800And most people have said that the modeling gives the Republicans a better shot than most people would have thought she had.
00:21:38.780We talked about how Trump lost it by double digits to Clinton and to Biden and almost flipped it in 2024 because here Lawler being a more liberal Republican is able to connect with these Westchester County voters where the big dim margins come from.
00:21:53.800Yep, and they may have two radical person, although I think it's Army or Navy.
00:22:00.040Okay, so if you do that, and there's some reaches in there, you're at 218, correct?
00:22:06.220Well, if they win four of the six, and they hold all those leaners and win all the bullish seats, that would be 218.
00:22:11.860So I kind of have it like a baseball series here where we need to win one out of three in Pennsylvania.
00:22:15.820We need to hold one of the seats in Iowa, win one of the seats in Arizona, and then maybe grab one out of the bearish column.
00:22:22.280And that's how you wind up putting, you know, a decent majority together, because in those bearish seats.
00:22:27.600Now, I've incorporated what I know, you know, De Niro and Ruffalo are complaining like they know anything about election integrity.
00:22:33.900I've put in what I know about elections and modern election integrity shortages into these ratings.
00:22:39.600And the reason I have these seats rated and bearish, I'm not going to put an all mail in voting seat in Washington three, despite the polls favoring the Republican Party as something favorable to the GOP, because they're going to count votes until Christmas.
00:22:51.760And they're going to do ballot ballot curing for that entire time.
00:22:55.180Same thing with Colorado, a same thing with California, 48, California.
00:25:22.220So the odds of the Republicans winding up getting a 218 coalition, they've gotten better since last week.
00:25:27.860Every day with the turnout data, more seats become likely to be won by the GOP.
00:25:32.140I would say there's probably a one in three chance that the Republicans pull this off and hold a majority.
00:25:37.280And if the Dems win the majority, I have a difficult time seeing them with more than 225 right now.
00:25:43.720Wow. Which would be a big victory, big media narrative victory, but not good enough to hold the chairmanships.
00:25:50.460OK, Seth Kesel, Captain, can you hang on? I want to go through the Senate next.
00:25:55.540We'll take a short commercial break. Also, Dr. Karen Sigmund's going to join us.
00:25:59.240Frank Gaffney's going to join us. We'll talk about the president's given Pete Hegseth authorization for a firing squad for a Islamic terrorist0.99
00:26:10.880who murdered in cold blood, I guess, combat fatalities
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00:32:06.680OK, so let's spend a couple of minutes on the Senate. I really want to come back, spend more time with you at the end of the week after you get more data on the House, because I think the House is.
00:32:14.500But they've got you. Gov's got up. It's got Tallarico by six, Sherrod Brown by four, Hamilton over Marshall by three, Osborne, the Independent over Ricketts by one else.
00:32:25.880Abdul over Rogers by one. So a lot of margin error there. But they're sending the message that it looks lights out for the for the Republicans.
00:32:34.260You don't buy that. Give me a couple of three minutes on your assessment.
00:32:38.200First, on the holds, let's start in Texas on the key holds.
00:33:17.160You'd have to really be believing a lot of the Democrat hopium to think that all of a sudden Kansas is going to be pushing a Democrat to the Senate.
00:33:23.860Now, if they did, the national environment would be so blue that everything here on this sheet would be a waste, and we just – it's kind of like a guy hits a 500-foot home run off of you.
00:33:33.560Just tip your hat and try again next time.
00:33:37.320Dan Osborne has a bit of the Beto O'Rourke effect on him where he was within seven points in a presidential against Deb Fischer as a, quote, independent.
00:33:45.380Now, things are different this time around because Fischer spotted the sniper.
00:33:51.200She's also the weaker candidate with less name recognition.
00:33:54.420Pete Ricketts is the former two-term governor.
00:33:57.420He's also part of the family that, well, his father is the founder of TD Ameritrade and owns the Chicago Cubs.
00:34:04.680And they're going to drum Osborne with all kinds of cash.
00:34:07.780And the reason the president is going to a state he won by more than 20 points is because nobody wants to take anything for granted and miss anything the Dems are gunning for.
00:34:16.620But, look, Kansas and Nebraska should be Republican holds.
00:34:19.200I've got them both at 90-10 Republican hold.
00:34:21.840But then we get into the bullish seats.
00:34:24.560These are the seats that I think the Republicans should be favored to win.
00:34:28.880Iowa is one of all the bad polling states.
00:34:32.420Iowa is the one where the Republicans are pulling the best for this race.
00:34:35.600Hinson's been up in most of the recent polls by one or two points.
00:34:38.700And any averages that show Turek up are usually because he's had a few Marist type polls that show him up by six points.
00:34:45.100Iowa is a lot more like Missouri today than it is like Wisconsin, which used to be its cousin state.
00:34:50.060So Senate races are much more resembling of the previous presidential election because you've got the entire state voting, not subject to the volatility of one district or type of voter like these suburban voters.
00:35:32.700It's trending in a more Republican manner, more like Indiana, instead of a Trump-looking manner like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
00:35:38.480So I think that Brown is going to find his urban turnout lacking. I think that Husted is going to have the edge here. And then Texas, of course, I think with 189 consecutive Republican wins 32 years in a row and requiring Ken Paxton to only have 49 percent of the male vote, 55 percent of the white vote and getting absolutely annihilated in cities worse than O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz, then I think that you have to believe a lot over these polls.
00:36:04.980So I don't think that Texas is what people think it is per polling.
00:36:08.980And that's 51 seats if the leaners and the bullish seats all hold up Republican.
00:36:13.400Where do you where do you see us with potential pickups?
00:36:17.480Well, the pickups here, the opportunity for a pickup is to me, Michigan, Michigan.
00:36:26.340El-Sayed has a lot of the same red flags that Troy Jackson and Maine has and lots of press about Democrats for Rogers.
00:36:32.680Lots of press about black voters not interested in El Syed.
00:36:36.340Then you have Scholten, the Democrat from out in western Michigan, talking about how he has issues with urban vote, black vote.
00:36:42.680So I think that of the opportunities to flip a blue seat to red, Michigan is probably the best one.
00:36:48.260But I think New Hampshire falls in the same category as a possible win.
00:36:51.340Before a bunch, Minnesota, radical lieutenant governor running and the sideline announcer is actually running a pretty solid focus campaign, still too overwhelmed by Michigan progressives, you think?
00:37:07.200Well, what I've read about Minnesota is that the number two issue, according to voters, is—and I'm more inclined to believe polls about issues than I am two-person races—but the number two issue in Minnesota is the fraud and corruption.
00:37:22.220And the reason that I have – so I actually have Minnesota only ranked 60-40 for the Democrat Flanagan.
00:37:29.460She ran through a very divided primary and beat Angie Craig.0.94
00:37:33.560She's seen with a lot of skepticism for her role in the fraud and corruption.0.85
00:37:37.340It looks to me like she had the direct role in the ICE riots also.0.91
00:37:42.860And then you have Michelle Tafoya running her campaign in Minnesota.
00:37:45.920The reason I'm hopeful that Tafoya may have a shot is because Keith Ellison had two very close election results in 2018 and 2022, being somebody who's regularly affiliated with being somewhat extreme and tied to corruption, and he barely won by less than a point for attorney general in re-election in 2022.
00:38:04.880So the the Minnesota races do have the capacity to single out one race and run a closer race, because I'll tell you what, Amy Klobuchar is going to be elected governor by a lot.
00:38:16.860So it's going to require a lot of ticket splitting until FOIA is going to need to really get into the Twin Cities and get more than 35 percent of the vote in Hennepin and Ramsey County to be competitive in Minnesota.0.98
00:38:26.360But I think she's going to have as many red counties as Trump does.1.00
00:38:30.340That's what's going to help us in New Hampshire if we win that.0.91
00:38:34.220Kelly Ayotte running 15 points up, I think, in the governor's race.
00:40:13.440I don't know. Keith Ellis is pretty controversial.
00:40:16.040Talk to me about ban Sharia, prohibit Sharia.
00:40:18.420Why is this execution of the jihadist such a big deal, sir?0.57
00:40:24.980Yeah, Keith Ellison, I think, was one of the early examples of a communist who was also a jihadist, by the way, very much Muslim Brotherhood guy.0.57
00:40:33.200Why this instance of a jihadist being executed is so signally important and I think really a touchstone for our campaign to ban Sharia is it kind of breaks through this whole idea that what we are dealing with,0.76
00:40:56.320what we have been dealing with for decades now is just, oh, I don't know, workplace violence,0.84
00:41:04.520as it's sometimes been called, or it's terrorism, or it's violent extremism. No, it's jihad. And
00:41:14.800jihad is commended of its perpetrators by Sharia. So if we want to stop this kind of behavior
00:41:25.780And this has been an outlier to date. What the jihadists have mostly been doing is a different
00:41:33.480kind of jihad, a complementary kind. The Brothers and Brotherhood, excuse me, has called it
00:41:39.820civilization jihad, Steve. It's a pre-kinetic, not peaceful, pre-kinetic kind of jihad that
00:41:48.580tends to ultimately usher in the violent kind. And so our campaign is designed to do something
00:41:57.300about this. We're not interested in admiring the problem, not in Texas, not in Florida,
00:42:02.880not in Michigan, not anywhere in the United States. We want to see what can be done.
00:42:08.160And I thank you so much for making time available now for this purpose each day,
00:42:13.860hopefully between now and the election, because this is a window in which the American people
00:42:18.780are finally focusing on the policies that are going to shape the future. We're not in the
00:42:24.400business of telling people how to vote. We do want people to know whether the people that
00:42:29.580they are being asked to vote for support and defend our constitution as the oath of office0.87
00:42:36.820requires, or whether they're in fact going to sell us out to the Sharia supremacists. In some cases,0.88
00:42:42.840they are Sharia supremacists running as Democrats. In some other cases, they're, well, like Keith
00:42:48.020Ellison, communists and jihadists, both. The Marxist jihadists, as you call them, Steve.
00:42:55.800And in other cases, they're people who are aligned with them, who are seeking their money,
00:43:02.460their votes, and will do their bidding, ultimately to help destroy our country0.99
00:43:07.880in the furtherance of what Sharia, as I say, commands.1.00
00:43:13.140And so we wanted to have Karen Sigiman on
00:43:37.080and equip the American people more generally to save our country, save Texas, and save it across
00:43:43.360this nation. You were bringing Gerd Wilders to LA, and this is where we came up with Jenny Story
00:43:49.380and Glenn Story and people at Pedro Mobile, others that have that amazing kickoff session in early
00:43:54.980January of this year, kind of kicked off the year with the Prohibit Sharia Law Conference. You had
00:44:00.660grassroots leaders all day, and then we had the big dinner and speeches at night. Where does that
00:44:06.280put us today? How can we bring this home and particularly bring it home? Abbott's got a video
00:44:11.800out, I think today, saying, hey, these Sharia courts that are popping up in Texas are illegal
00:44:16.180and I'm going to shut them down, particularly in the state of Texas and the state of Michigan.0.64
00:44:20.560There's others too, Florida, North Carolina, but we got two that are on red alert. What should we
00:44:25.420do there and how can ban Sharia and prohibit Sharia in Texas and in Michigan help us out here, ma'am?0.88
00:44:36.280Making people aware it was particularly in Texas was the focal point because of Epic City and the various ways in which, as you point out, the jewel in the crown of Texas was being targeted.
00:44:51.640You take Texas, you take the country. So we put in a special effort there. As you point out, it's Florida, it's Michigan, it's Georgia, it's everywhere that they are undertaking, as Frank pointed out, civilizational jihad.
00:45:05.580which is jihad in ways that aren't necessarily kinetic, but aiming, the whole purpose is conquest.
00:45:14.760And we cannot forget, the purpose is conquest. And when we here are young people, young Americans
00:45:21.380see nothing wrong with Sharia, in fact, they kind of like it, we realize that they have been far too0.98
00:45:27.180successful in indoctrination, and we have not been successful enough in describing the ways in which0.70
00:45:33.580Sharia, jihad, Islam, Islamism, civilizational jihad is being waged against us.
00:45:40.080To see nothing wrong with it is to demonstrate how effective they have been.0.94
00:45:44.900And we, you know, the videos that are being put out, Frank is making them, we're working with them.
00:45:50.640Obviously, we had Geert Wilders, Tommy Robinson, a whole host of people who have come from Europe to say, look, this is a real danger.
00:45:59.360We see it. We've been seeing it in the U.K., in Germany, in France. Look at France right now. Invasion is real, and it changes the nature of your country. So what we've been trying to do is warn, educate, undo the damage that has already been done.
00:46:16.600And the whole Hassan thing, as you pointed out, Steve, he's representing an enemy.0.89
00:46:43.620And if you don't name the enemy and you don't name why, you are completely incapable of fighting it.
00:46:50.060So that's been the whole battle for us, is naming the enemy, ensuring always consequences, that he was found guilty, at least of premeditated murder or something.
00:47:08.400So we need to pursue punishment for those who murder us.
00:47:13.620frank karen brings up a good point france is an object lesson for us right now a combination
00:47:20.280france started with these cuts they have to make because their their bond markets collapsing they
00:47:25.800can't finance the government macron's up against the wall is his ratings in 22 he just said today
00:47:31.000they're going to waive the constitution to deal directly with their parliament to make cuts i
00:47:35.600think they got 55 billion and for them that's a massive number for us it's pocket change um but
00:47:41.680They've taken to the streets. The Islamists have taken with the Marxists, taken to the streets and are really burning, trying to burn Paris down because they said, oh, no, we need free stuff.0.71
00:47:52.320You can't cut the budget. This this is our future because this is what's going to happen with the Marxist jihadists and the financial crisis has come to the United States about cutting federal spending, sir.0.79
00:48:02.560you're so right Steve and again going back to the you know Hassan business the fact that this guy0.93
00:48:10.900wasn't punished immediately and lethally has only emboldened these enemies you know0.83
00:48:19.760the bin Laden's were emboldened by the fact that we didn't respond to previous acts of jihad0.72
00:48:27.380And this is happening now in France. This is happening increasingly in other parts of Europe. Some of the violence, the rape gangs notably, but it becomes a self-fulfilling thing if it's not stopped.0.83
00:48:43.860And so I just wanted to echo what Karen was saying. Bancharia.com is a campaign. We call it the Save Texas, Save America campaign. And we are going to be, with your help, Steve, incredibly focusing on the fact that most Americans are still not clued up about the nature of this threat.
00:49:04.680We're going to equip them with information about what they can do about it, notably holding
00:49:08.580accountable those who seek to represent us.
00:49:12.180And those who, you know, in office right now, like Greg Abbott, you know, God bless him.1.00
00:49:16.560If he is going to stop these Sharia courts, he should stop any further installations of1.00
00:49:24.360Yeah, they're dual patina of that, but basically they're forward operating bases for jihad.
00:49:31.560That's what they've been for 1,400 years.
00:49:33.840We need no more of them in this country, and we actually ought to start raiding the ones that are out there.
00:49:39.300Texas would be a great place to do that, and it will so in spirit the American people, if this happens in this window, that I think you're going to see.
00:49:48.960You know, there's a lot of talk, Steve, on this program and elsewhere.
00:49:51.320By the way, Cashel is just unbelievably impressive.
00:49:54.140But a lot of talk about getting out the vote.
00:49:56.940I'm very keen on that myself, but we also have to give people a reason to vote.0.99
00:50:02.800And one of them is we're going to stop Sharia.0.97
00:50:06.280So help support us in doing this campaign at bansharia.com, please.1.00
00:50:10.740We've got a little button there that says Save America Now.
00:50:13.840Go to it and generously support us if you can.1.00
00:50:16.780By the way, the Muslims are working overtime to get their turning out,
00:50:21.060and they've got polling places in these Islamic centers.