00:01:38.960Does the budget live up to its grand title and promise? Not really. Hi, I'm Brian Lilly,
00:01:43.840your host. Welcome to the Full Comment podcast. We're here to tell you that it is a big spending
00:01:48.480budget this year, over $600 billion in spending. That includes a deficit of more than $62 billion
00:01:55.160this year. And public debt charges, that's the interest-only payment on the National Credit
00:02:00.320Card, that sits at more than $60 billion. The government has identified more than $140 billion
00:02:07.000in new spending over five years. Strangely, though, there's no overarching narrative in
00:02:11.860what they're trying to do in this budget. There's no sweeping reform of our tax code to try and
00:02:17.040unleash the Canadian economy, not even a grand plan for putting our economy on a more solid
00:02:22.100funding in the face of tariffs and trade uncertainty. There are a couple of things
00:02:26.240that tinker around the edges when it comes to capital gains tax and reducing regulations.
00:02:30.800We'll get into the good and the bad of that later. But buried in the budget were the government's
00:02:36.040immigration level plans. This is the the details on how many people they plan on letting into the
00:02:41.880country in the coming years. And on that front, it's massive. Three hundred and eighty thousand
00:02:46.280permanent residents. That figure alone is above historic norms. But the government wants to
00:02:50.960Add on an extra 200,000 people currently in the country on a temporary visa, school or work, and grant them permanent status.
00:02:59.740That would be 580,000 permanent residents in one year, the largest number of new permanent residents Canada ever recorded in a single year.
00:03:09.660To help make sense of this, I caught up with Conservative MP Michelle Rempel-Garner, who's also her party's critic on The Immigration File.
00:03:16.920What was your reaction when you saw the new immigration targets contained in the budget?
00:03:22.300This is going to impact a lot of people's lives and not in a good way.
00:03:26.920You know, and I want to be very clear about that.
00:03:31.160When Canada invites somebody to this country, there is a promise made that they're going to be able to come here, find an affordable place to live, find a good paying job and better themselves.
00:03:44.320At the same time, there's a promise that's made to Canadians that they will also be able to do those things. And the numbers you mentioned are the highest levels of permanent resident immigration, permanent immigrants in Canadian history.
00:04:01.200And this follows, you know, a decade of very high immigration levels that have outpaced the Canadian economy.
00:04:18.740The net effect has been to suppress wages.
00:04:21.360And it's created a lot of social tension.
00:04:23.060And instead of fixing, you know, the rampant fraud and abuse that we see in the system, both in the temporary foreign worker program, in the international mobility program, in the asylum system, what we saw today was so irresponsible that Mark Carney himself, and he hid these numbers, but the highest levels of permanent immigration in Canadian history on top of record levels of new temporary residents.
00:04:50.460Where are these people going to live, Brian?
00:05:11.700I'm going to play you more in a moment.
00:05:13.200But, I mean, for the longest time, the regular number of new residents would be between 250,000, 280,000 in that range when you were part of the Harper government.
00:08:18.660than their historic norms on every category.
00:08:22.800Well, let me frame this a little differently.
00:08:24.940The Bank of Canada has put out reports showing that the levels of immigration that Mark Carney is sustaining and increasing are depressing wages.
00:08:35.380The Bank of Canada has put out reports talking about the impact on various other metrics like unemployment and productivity.
00:08:48.080They've pointed out that it harms the housing market for both rentals and being able to purchase a home.
00:08:54.060And the government's own housing department has said that. So that's official agencies saying that. But then there's the lived experience of Canadians who are watching this and newcomers who are watching this who can't afford an apartment that is affordable. They can't find an entry level job. They're being expected to be paid far less than what the market would demand for their labor if immigration levels were sustainable.
00:09:19.440And the only people who are benefiting this, when Mark Carney talks about sustainable numbers, it's sustainable for one group of people, corporate interests who have relied on a very high level of mass immigration in order to depress wages and profit off of that.
00:09:44.840And what all of this scarcity that is completely artificial and created by the government through mass immigration is having, the impact is social unrest.
00:09:55.220You see it in public opinion polling on immigration, attitudes towards immigration.
00:10:00.380And I think what the Liberals want to have happen is have Canadians point the finger at immigrants or newcomers when we're all in this together.
00:10:10.360The finger needs to be squarely pointed at Mark Carney.
00:10:13.380He should have said no to the corporate lobbyists who came in asking him for the levels of
00:12:31.660It's an entirely different picture right now.
00:12:33.520In fact, I think that the Liberals' mass immigration numbers have masked fundamental weaknesses in the Canadian economy, which have been created by years of high deficit spending, high taxation, high untenable regulations.
00:12:50.000And instead of reforming all of those things, or to your point, talking about essentially things like labor mobility or skills training, Mark Carney's just like, yeah, okay, let's bring in another city the size of Winnipeg in a year.
00:13:06.180Again, like just the fundamental issue, where are those people going to live?
00:13:11.480Where are they going to go to the doctor?
00:13:13.020The median wait time for treatment services in Canada is, what, 26 and a half weeks now?
00:13:20.000So this is, I think that what you're listening to to understand is how fundamentally irresponsible this policy is when you're looking at overall public policy.
00:13:33.260This is the most important thing that Canadians should care about right now.
00:13:37.080And the government is doing the exact wrong thing.
00:17:58.200Explain for people, explain for people why it's different with these temporary foreign worker or IMP programs, why it's different than just bringing someone in as an immigrant to do the job.0.95
00:18:46.460that means that there's no incentive for the company to raise your wages because you have
00:18:51.540to take the wage that they're giving you. There's no incentive for the company to better your
00:18:55.900working conditions because you have to take the working conditions that that employer is giving
00:19:01.080you. And what that means is that we're essentially creating an indentured labor class in a variety
00:19:09.000of industries in this country, especially the food services sector, while at the same time
00:19:14.060we're displacing those entry-level jobs that normally would go to Canadian kids that would
00:19:19.300learn vital things like showing up to work on time, how to work with customers, how to work
00:19:24.680in a team. And we're abdicating, we're allowing companies, much of this profit goes to shareholders,
00:19:32.560you know, the firm you mentioned in the United States or in Brazil. We're allowing them to
00:19:37.860advocate their social responsibility to train the next generation of workers or to create social
00:19:43.040cohesion that says, if you work hard, you can get ahead. Um, we're not the, we're not a country
00:19:49.560like the Emirates where we have two classes of work, not in my Canada anyways, but yet this is
00:19:56.120what Mark Carney's enabling. It's disgusting. What's the solution? Um, I mean, you don't have0.87
00:20:03.140a majority in parliament. I, I, even if the liberals were still in a minority, I doubt the
00:20:09.680NDP would join you, the bloc might, in opposing this. So what realistically can be done other
00:20:16.720than raising the alarm so that the public lets the government know, hey, you're on the wrong track?
00:20:23.720I'm optimistic on this topic because I think Canadians understand that this is fundamentally
00:20:30.260an issue of human rights and morality. And I actually think that Mark Carney doesn't understand
00:20:38.920that. You could see it in his response today. And so because it creates such an emotive response
00:20:45.300based on lived experience, I think that this is an issue that transcends political stripe.
00:20:51.420And, you know, my responsibility as a parliamentarian is to put forward
00:20:54.780system reform proposals, which we have been doing. I've been on your show multiple times,
00:21:00.180concrete amendments to legislation, legislation myself, policy proposals on how to fix the system.
00:21:07.560And I think that's resonated with Canadians. It's why you see in public opinion research that immigration is the liberals' weakest issue. And it's also why it's the conservatives' best issue. I think that we've struck that balance in a way that resonates with Canadians. And I think that we've forced them to enact some change.
00:21:28.040but I'll say this. You know me to not be a shrinking violet. I'm a bit of a spicy tamale.
00:21:34.180Giddy up, Mark Carney. We're not going to let you do this. I'm not going to let Mark Carney
00:21:39.080be morally bankrupt on behalf of his corporate buddies. Enough. This is gross. Canadians and
00:21:47.760people who want to come to Canada to build a better life deserve better than the prospect
00:21:52.400of depressed wages and living 10 deep in a basement suite in Brampton. So, you know, this
00:21:58.120is where conservatives, it's a full court press, we will, we're opposing this. And I know that
00:22:03.100Canadians are raising their voices. I know that immigrants are raising their voices. We can't,
00:22:08.000we won't let human beings be reduced to sterile units of production for Mark Carney's technocratic
00:22:13.480worldview. No, this has to be about human rights and morality and the ability to build a better
00:22:20.760life. And to do that right now, the levels need to come way down.
00:22:27.680Michelle Rempel-Garner, thanks for the time.
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00:23:40.100You're a political junkie, right? I mean, that's why you're listening to this podcast.
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00:26:05.720On that front, the budget's getting mixed reviews, including from our next two guests.
00:26:11.020Dan McTague was a Liberal MP from 1993 to 2011.
00:26:15.200He was there for the budgets in the mid-90s under Jean-Claude Chen that turned around Canada's finances and got the deficit and debt under control.
00:26:23.460He's now president of Canadians for Affordable Energy.0.68
00:26:26.680Lucy Hargraves worked for years on Parliament Hill as a senior political staffer in the Trudeau government.
00:26:32.420She's now co-founder and CEO of Build Canada, a group advocating for making Canada the best place in the world to invest.
00:26:42.080First take on the budget when you were reading it, my view was it was neither fish nor fowl.
00:26:47.500No huge spending increases, but no major tax reform or changes that, in my view, go big enough in terms of getting to what Build Canada calls for, making us more prosperous.
00:27:00.080Yeah, I mean, overall, I think this was a really strong budget from an entrepreneur perspective, specifically in the tech sector. There's the Canada Growth Incentive in there that is basically like a U.S.-style tax incentive to give founders and early entrepreneurs a break on capital gains tax. It's something that many, many, many innovation entrepreneur groups have been asking for for the last number of years.
00:27:47.740Yeah, so this tax incentive basically gives entrepreneurs a break on the capital gains that they would pay on the first $15 million of their exit, which is different than what is in place now, which is just the LCGE, which is $1.275 million.
00:28:07.840So this is totally separate, a much larger pool, and is modeled after what is on offer in the U.S., which is QSBS.
00:28:14.880The limitation to it really is that it only applies to very, very specific types of companies, mostly in the digital sector and the tech sector.
00:28:24.620There's a whole wide range of industry carve-outs.
00:28:27.320So this is not good if you are an entrepreneur in a professional services sector, if you're in real estate, if you're in mining or fisheries or agriculture.
00:28:39.920I saw the very long list of companies that do not qualify.
00:28:43.900Yeah. And that is actually similar, like to be fair to the Canadian government, that is similar to how QSBS is structured in the U.S. It is mostly a tax incentive for tech founders. And so that is sort of the model that they've adopted here. It's very, very narrow.
00:30:19.300And I said, there are no fiscal hawks in the voting pool anymore.
00:30:22.560It's a very small group of them anyway. For this current fiscal year, we're going to be spending $58.7 billion on servicing the debt. That's just the debt service payments. That's climbing up to $80.9 billion just for the interest on the national credit card by 2030-31.
00:30:47.020you would have fainted back when you were in the Khrushchev government
00:31:17.400And of course, while the IMF and others who did threaten us back in the 1990s with taking over tutelage of the finances,
00:31:25.400the reality is that this number, by most metrics, not the ones that are invented by the government to create this sort of what I call creative financing,
00:31:33.480one operational, one capital, and you can sort of divide the two.
00:31:38.320And this is a burden that will be obviously bestowed to the next generation and the generation after that with no real timely from the, you know, from the horizon the next five years attempt at trying to bring this down.
00:31:52.260And interesting that, you know, the backdrop is that there may have been increases in revenue with the oil and gas sector and some restraint in spending, but all of it's going to go back to once again spending.
00:32:03.600That's not to say we shouldn't, and we don't see this, you know, deficits and reduction of deficits and cutback in programs as a means to an end.
00:32:13.700It has to be measured in a way that understands full well that with a no-growth economy and no prospects for an economy, we're still saddled with the same problems that we saw under the previous government.
00:32:24.460Now, some commentators this morning, I heard them saying, oh, this is not like a Trudeau budget.
00:32:30.100I mean, the damage was done then, 10 years of accumulated deficits and the debt that we now bear.
00:32:35.760And it's not just the federal government, it's the subsovereign, it's the provinces, and it's, of course, consumer debt.
00:32:42.000We have not addressed what was going to be the fundamental point of this budget, and that's the word affordability.
00:32:47.740You know, Brian, for eight years, we rang the bell on affordability.
00:32:51.840He said, if you mess around with energy prices, as an example, and you pretend that these things are not important, you don't put guardrails in place, and you break those guardrails with want and abandon, which this government has done.
00:33:05.320And it's advocates pretty much on two-thirds of the size of the house, the Greens, the NDP.
00:33:11.000I know they may not like this budget, but they were very much part of this.
00:33:14.100The reality is that we are heading towards a fiscal cliff.
00:33:17.740And I'm not going to wait for bond rating agencies and other woke organizations to basically say, oh, this is all cool, this is all trendy.
00:33:26.340As I mentioned, this is a hard debt that we now have to face that the next generation will have to pay for, and for which it may be harder and harder for the Canadian government to borrow money, notwithstanding the fact that it's continuing down this road of finding ways to increase energy prices and, as a result, driving up the cost of living.
00:33:44.360the uh just on the the public uh debt charges for this current fiscal year they're projecting
00:33:52.800that 11 cents of every tax dollar collected by ottawa will go to pay the interest on the debt
00:33:59.520that's going up to 13.2 cents by the government's projections i'd like to hear from both of you is
00:37:50.980And the reality is, even with OAS is, you know, as you said, Brian, a huge cost to the Canadian taxpayer right now.0.70
00:37:59.440It is, you know, benefiting seniors who don't need it.
00:38:05.540And we still have over 400,000 seniors in poverty every year.
00:38:09.460So I think we need to take a step back and look at, OK, if the issue we're trying to tackle is making sure that no senior in our country should live in poverty, which I think is, you know, what most Canadians would agree with.
00:38:20.000we can reallocate funding and redesign that program so that it actually achieves that
00:38:25.640objective. As you say, like we already have the CPP program that people have paid into. This is
00:38:31.300something totally separate. And we should think about it more like the Canada Child Benefit,
00:38:35.720which is, you know, income adjusted at a much different level of calculation
00:38:40.620and actually address the problem of poverty for seniors rather than the program we have in place
00:38:46.280right now. The politics of it, though, Dan, Stephen Harper tried to say, you know what,
00:38:52.140move it up to 67. People said, oh, you're raising the retirement age. Of course,
00:38:56.660he wasn't doing that, but it was fought long and hard. People got very angry.
00:39:05.200You know, we spend three times as much on OAS, though. You mentioned the Canada Child Benefit,
00:39:11.540Lucy, we spend three times as much on OAS as the child benefit.0.85
00:39:17.680And, well, one's generating more seniors.
00:39:20.180The other is not generating more kids.
00:39:23.000What are the politics of it as someone who's been in elected office who's seen anger over any attempts to change programs?
00:39:32.200Well, there's a demographic imperative here that we've been talking about for many, many years.
00:39:37.180that eventually the system, the program, would be unsustainable
00:39:42.080given the number of people who are requesting
00:39:44.180and those who can support it and government's contribution to it.
00:46:46.420But, you know, you can be bold, and I'd say, you know, you want to make it so that companies do want to invest here and overcome things like the barriers set up by the tariffs and the other non-trade barriers going to the U.S.
00:47:10.780You know, Alberta took theirs from 12 to 8 and their revenue went up by two-thirds, partly due to the price of oil, but also more business activity.
00:47:19.520I think more governments take from, under whatever guise or under whatever direction, they tend to, these things tend to be self-defeating.
00:47:27.560A lot of the programs, the tax structure that we have have not been amended in quite some time, tinkering perhaps.
00:47:33.700But, you know, when we're faced with the ever-increasing number of Canadians leaving, a weak Canadian dollar, and make no mistake, that is just something that I think far too many economists pay no attention to.
00:47:45.140And yet it's at really the heart of why and a symptom of the bigger problem we have is that we're not attracting young entrepreneurs.
00:47:52.480We're not attracting those investments that will lead to greater productivity, not just in manufacturing, but in the entrepreneurial spirit that we discussed at the outset.
00:48:01.820But, you know, there is now need for an overhaul.
00:48:05.940And I think the overhaul is made fairly clear by the fact that by most metrics, save and
00:48:10.520accept being saved on oil prices that have helped a region of the country and help the
00:48:15.660federal government's finances, there isn't really much to celebrate in Canada right now