00:02:29.180conservatives at 33 the ndp under avie lewis down at six but when you look at people over the age of
00:02:36.42055, used to be the most reliable conservative voter. 60% say they're backing Mark Carney and
00:02:45.520the liberals. What is a conservative to do in this Trump world where he's taking up all the oxygen
00:02:53.240and people just instinctively turn to Mark Carney? Well, talking about polls, conservatives ought to,
00:03:00.680and I try to, have the discipline in this context to not get caught up in the horse race numbers.
00:03:06.420It is worth looking at the data, but I'm more interested in the data that tells us where the issues rank, how people feel about different issues. The age breakdown is really interesting.
00:03:17.100Because to my mind, the strategic imperative for conservatives, especially now that the liberals have a majority government, which I think was a bit of a blessing in disguise, probably for the conservatives, is not to run at short term wins, but to think of a plan and develop a plan that will last over the medium and long term and set the conservatives up for the next election and, you know, even the election after that.
00:03:40.500And the problem with the issue environment, as you describe it, is that the Trump issue becomes the mono issue. And you can kind of chart this, like when he has his latest antagonisms against Canada, and when things flare up, you see Carney's numbers go up, the Liberal number go up, the Conservative number go down, everything tracks with that.
00:04:02.200And then when he's quiet for a while, and that issue is quiet for a while, cost of living increases again in salience, public order and disorder and immigration increase again in salience because there are other issues that Canadians care about.
00:04:16.540They just don't care about them as much when they're seeing Donald Trump on the news every day.
00:04:22.240Which is kind of what happened, Jenny.
00:04:24.260It's kind of what happened during the last campaign, wasn't it?
00:04:27.220Absolutely. Absolutely. When the campaign was talking about affordability, Paulie Evans and the Conservatives were doing quite well. And then when we'd have a Trump eruption, it was Mark Carney saving grace.
00:04:39.420Yeah. And it's not to say that the Conservatives, I don't think, should have a posture relative to the Canada-US relationship. Of course we should. But we have to have one that we think is going to be successful over the medium and long term. And we have the benefit of, look, there are lots of downsides to not being in government right now, the biggest of which is that you don't benefit from the rally around the flag effect that all incumbents at all levels of government are benefiting from.
00:05:04.340But you also get the space and the luxury of thinking about the medium and long term as it relates to the Canada-US relationship. And so I think conservatives should be talking, you know, have good answers when it comes to Trump and to Canada-US. But we should take advantage of the fact that we can think in the medium term and frankly in the way that I don't think the government can because they have to obsess over the politics of the moment.
00:05:25.500So that's kind of boring and unsatisfying and ungratifying for people who want to see like a boost in the polls tomorrow. But I think it is the disciplined thing to do from a strategic perspective. It might not feel tactically gratifying in the short term, but I think that's like that is the theme I want to sort of convey today. I really think conservatives have to think about the medium and the long term.
00:05:46.320Ian, do you agree with Jenny that think medium and long term and don't get too wrapped up in the moment?
00:05:52.020A year ago, or over the course of the past year, Mr. Carney picked a way at opposition MPs one by one to establish his majority. He's had a couple of by-elections since then, some more are coming. There's no reason to think that Mr. Carney is going to be in anything but a majority in the foreseeable future.
00:06:10.140And that means the next federal election is two and a half years from now. There's no reason of an election before that. If there's any moves towards having an election before that, we're having a mid-trade war election. That's a different matter. There's no particular reason why Mr. Kearney can't continue on for two and a half years.
00:06:26.500So I think Ginny's right. That's the right timeline to have in mind here.
00:06:31.380The trouble in the polling numbers is, I think, or the underlying message here is that people, particularly young people,
00:06:39.380people who don't own their own house, who are feeling the class of living crisis most acutely, are not so keen on Mr. Carney.
00:06:45.820People who are in a more comfortable situation seem to find him more reassuring, more serious about the issues than Mr. Pagliath does.
00:06:53.380I think Mr. Polly has got a little bit of time to reflect on why that might be the case.0.74
00:06:59.300You can, you know, regret that people over the age of 55 have the right to vote.0.66
00:07:04.160I'm over 55, so I'm glad to have the right to vote.
00:07:07.300But the reality is you have to meet voters.
00:10:30.600It was two lost months with not much to show for it.
00:10:33.580So, Jenny, do you think that they go early and try and play the game?
00:10:38.480I get the sense that the prime minister sees elections as a necessary evil and that if an election is not necessary, he will not pursue one.
00:10:47.200I think he, to Ian's point, the time and effort he put into building his majority indicates to me that he wants to avoid an election.
00:10:55.620He sort of he's actually pretty good at politics for a guy who I think don't like doesn't like it very much.
00:10:59.740I think he likes to govern and manage, especially in this moment.
00:11:03.580and I also think it would come with risk,
00:11:06.180and I don't know that the reward would be worth it.
00:11:09.560And I just don't think he's that kind of a politician.
00:11:11.820But look, the party apparatus of the Conservative Party should be ready.
00:11:16.220You know, we would never want to be caught flat-footed,
00:11:18.620and there are operational things you can do to be ready,
00:11:20.880and when you think about nomination races and getting candidates in place
00:11:23.940and that sort of thing that we should be doing anyway,
00:11:25.620because they benefit the party in terms of preparing for an election at a fixed date.
00:11:31.920So we never say never, but I think it's unlikely.
00:11:36.120Just to go back to the most recent Leger numbers and look at some regionals, Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have a 22-point lead over the Conservatives.
00:11:46.960In Ontario, it's 19. The Conservatives dominate across the prairies, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, not a big surprise.
00:11:54.200in british columbia it's 31 points the area where they do well and this speaks to what you were
00:12:01.260talking about jenny and and i'm not sure how they use this to to turn things around the other issues
00:12:07.760and the affordability crisis hitting young people they're not leading with voters under 55 but with
00:12:15.700voters 35 to 54 they're close it's 41 37 that is the closest demographic gap between the liberals
00:12:23.780and conservatives in this poll, similar numbers in other polling firms.
00:12:28.080How do you get people talking about affordability, about crime, about immigration, which, despite
00:12:35.200the fact that it has come down, is still a major problem for this country in terms of0.87
00:12:42.160bringing in more people than we can, or bringing in people faster than we can absorb them?
00:12:46.660How do you twist and start getting people to talk about those issues again that they
00:12:51.800were very much focused on prior to Donald Trump. Yeah. Well, I think Brian's right. Ultimately,
00:13:00.060the Conservatives are going to have a winning coalition that needs to include some people0.90
00:13:02.820over 55. There is no winning coalition that doesn't. It doesn't need to include everyone0.98
00:13:09.540over 55, right? But it needs to include many, especially men. I don't see a path for Conservatives
00:13:15.000not winning men over 55. So the question is, how do you build back up to that?
00:13:20.480I think that if affordability is still your major issue, you don't own any assets and you don't watch a lot of mainstream media, you're probably still in the category that's with Pierre Polyev, unless you're pretty far left wing, in which case you're probably with the NDP.
00:13:36.680um so so that's fine that's a good core but that's not enough right like that gets him to sort of
00:13:42.260where he is today um i actually sit in the cohort that i recently i've taken to describing it as
00:13:47.840um when you get paid even if you get paid a lot you look at uh everything that's flowing through
00:13:53.880and you feel like it's all going to the government the bank or the grocery store um that my cohort of
00:13:59.980people in their 30s and 40s who have kids who maybe even own a home by the way but who bought
00:14:05.300at the top of the market, whose mortgage is out of control, especially if they live in a big city
00:14:08.520where prices got super inflated and then interest rates went up. Those people are just crunched
00:14:14.020day in, day out. And I think they sit in an area, especially on the older side of their 40s,
00:14:20.320where they do get caught up in the Trump stuff when it's huge and a big deal and it's dominating
00:14:24.540the news. But as soon as it falls out of the news, they remember that their greatest frustration
00:14:28.560is that when they get paid, it goes to the bank, the government and the grocery store.
00:14:33.640And so having a message that resonates on that and importantly differentiates from the government is, I think, what's important. So you gestured earlier, I think maybe we were talking before we started recording, that the government is perceived to be doing certain things on the economy that sound like they could have been things that the Harper government might have done on whether it's on major projects or whatever else.
00:14:55.760I'm of the view that a lot of that is rhetorical. And a lot of that is sort of about, it's a little bit beyond rhetoric and that it's like agencies have been established by government. Measures have been taken, proclamations have been made. But actually making policy change that has real world impact, in my view, has not happened. And I think conservatives really need to be prosecuting the case on that.
00:15:19.000Because ultimately, when you talk about cost of living, you're talking about the economy and how that trickles down to people in their everyday lives.
00:15:24.780You're talking about the size of government. You're talking about why things are so expensive.
00:15:28.980And I think there's a really strong case to be made there, but it's going to take months, if not years, to make it.
00:15:34.940And we need to be beating the drum, even when people aren't listening, so that when they are ready to listen,
00:15:40.040they remember that the Conservatives were the ones prosecuting the case and that this guy, Mark Carney, has made a lot of commitments and talked a big game.
00:15:46.460But actually, there isn't really a lot to show for it on the economy.
00:15:50.340Before I get your thoughts on that, Ian, I want to play this clip of Tim Hodgson, a natural resources minister, because he was in Alberta.
00:16:00.180He's standing with Brian Jean making an announcement regarding the oil patch.
00:16:05.840And he was asked by a reporter who clearly didn't like the announcement and was saying, well, this pollutes.
00:16:11.360He said that our allies need our energy and we need to give it to them.
00:16:15.760And Canadians say, hey, our allies need it.
00:16:29.120Done properly, it reduces overall global emissions.
00:16:34.540In that world, in the world we need to live in, not in a magical world, in the world as it is, not as we wish it to be,
00:16:42.320this is the most productive way to be a clean and conventional energy superpower and it makes
00:16:48.820complete sense to do that so ian that sounds to me like uh andrew sheer circa 2019 trying to say
00:16:56.980that we should have lng pipelines to displace chinese coal it sounds like a stephen harper
00:17:01.840cabinet minister um it it sounds almost like ezra levant talking about ethical oil 15 years ago
00:17:08.400I wasn't expecting that. And while I agree for the most part with Jenny's point about the more rhetoric than action, on this one, they haven't gutted C-69. They didn't repeal it, but they are changing it enough that we're back to one review per project, which is what the Harper government had brought in all those years ago.
00:17:30.780yes look uh there was a senior liberal through town here in the spring a friend of mine from
00:17:37.020ottawa uh he was in town for a liberal fundraiser uh he told me that uh in as far as he knows the
00:17:44.160plan uh the liberals in the next election are planning to keep the seat they already have in
00:17:48.580calgary to pick up four more uh that would be i don't think that's an unreasonable uh projection
00:17:54.620on their part uh on the current polls there's no doubt that there's going to be a strong competition
00:18:29.460on the off entrance. This summer was a sort of let a thousand flowers bloom, a summer for the
00:18:35.520Conservative caucus. Different caucus members are talking about different issues. Dean Allison's got
00:18:40.500a thing going on about the pandemic policies from five years ago. Other MPs were out on one side of
00:18:47.340the other of data centers and so forth, the people traveling all over the world, raising all sorts of
00:18:53.060issues. Now that we're back to the fall sitting of the Hudson Common shortly, the Conservative
00:18:57.820project going to have to focus on what's needed to move the dial in public opinion, to be much
00:19:02.840more serious about the issues where it opposes the government, to be serious about trying to win
00:19:08.000votes rather than her vote, trying to be serious about trying to win friends and win supporters
00:19:12.840rather than alienate people. And that's going to be a challenge. Mr. Polio, I think, proved very
00:19:18.440good at channeling frustration and even a certain amount of anger about cost of voting issues,
00:19:24.600Vero Grout, Divisive, Cultural Apologies, Minnesota government, that's the two ways
00:19:29.740that it changed. We're going to have to see whether Conservatives can be reassuring,
00:19:34.420as well as reflecting anger about the cost of living issue, whether they can take on the big
00:19:39.740issue that make it look like they're capable of managing Canada-Urish relations better than
00:19:44.040Mr. Carney, and in particular, amongst the demographics that Conservatives have been
00:19:48.740too focused on for the past year and a half, and that the real challenge, that is a serious
00:19:52.800Johnson will require a full party effort that will require a frog leadership from the top.
00:19:57.900You mentioned everyone going off madly in all directions, which is certainly what appears to be happening.
00:20:07.360Some might say Jamil Javani is doing a soft launch of a leadership campaign already,
00:20:12.580publicly disagreeing with the leader, putting out videos, data mining with petitions.
00:20:16.840um you know you know discipline in politics comes from winning uh is the fact that they didn't win
00:20:26.380the fact that peer polyev doesn't have the tools to impose discipline part of why this
00:20:31.800is happening because it like dean allison's thing i i agree that that there are major issues that
00:20:39.340need to be addressed from covid uh vaccine injuries but most of the canadian public doesn't
00:20:44.640want to go near that. And that doesn't appear to be a party thing. It seems to be a Dean Allison
00:20:51.320thing. So it does feel like there's not a lot of discipline within the Conservative caucus
00:20:56.500right now. Jenny, you're frowning. Yeah, I think there's probably a need for a bit of a release
00:21:03.460valve after the election. The caucus was pretty tight in the year leading up to the election and
00:21:08.500during the election. And so they've sowed their wild oats now over the summer, let's say.
00:21:14.640And the discipline needs to come back. Not so much because any one issue that any one MP is pursuing is bad or doesn't have merit, but because if you are delivering 26 different messages in a week, Canadians don't know what your message is that week.
00:21:29.940And so you need to start to narrow your focus. And that really does have to come from the top. It's easier when you've won. People are really willing to get on board and shut up.
00:21:41.740When you haven't won recently and people are grumbling, it takes a lot more moral suasion to convince your caucus that they should sing from your songbook.
00:21:50.520And your songbook also needs to be compelling.
00:21:53.820You know, if I could just circle back to the point, you know, Ian said zero growth.
00:21:58.600There's a really good example to me of when we were too tactical and when we should be a little bit more long term.
00:22:03.180There was this quarter, as people might remember, that looked like it might be have been a recessionary quarter.
00:22:11.180It was like, let's declare we're in a recession.
00:22:14.580And it turns out, you know, once the numbers all come out, it actually wasn't technically a recession.
00:22:19.540And so the debate became where the conservatives right or wrong to call it a recession, which is a silly debate to have.
00:22:25.360Really, the conversation we should be having is that we've been in a secular stagnation for a decade.
00:22:29.900And we've been, you know, sitting at maybe a point here of growth or point there.
00:22:34.580But it's certainly not enough to increase quality of life, to lower cost of living, etc.
00:22:40.740And the conservatives need to be prosecuting that case.
00:22:43.120So what is the compelling message that caucus gets excited about driving the point home on low growth in the economy?
00:22:49.760It's not chasing the shiny object of last quarter's technical recession numbers or whatever.
00:22:57.080So, you know, you have to get that discipline, but you have to inspire the discipline.
00:23:01.840And I think the only way you can inspire the discipline is by starting to build a really strong argument where there is, one, contrast with the government, and two, a credible plan that appeals to a lot of Canadians.
00:23:12.220Ian, you've done caucus management as chief of staff. You've dealt with people that have gone off script. What's your advice to Mr. Polyev and his current chief of staff, Steve Outhouse?
00:23:27.300Look, I agree with Ginny that, you know, the psychological impact of losing after you were 26 points ahead, that negative energy had to come out of the caucus at some point.
00:23:36.980And to a certain extent, if that's what we spent the last four months doing with letting all that energy out of caucus, you know, fair enough.
00:23:44.480So people have got that out of their system. Great.
00:23:46.860I guess I put the formula differently.
00:23:49.980It's not that winning produces discipline.
00:25:43.480Well, we need to take a break, and when we come back,
00:25:45.680We'll talk about the message he was taking to Americans and are there shifts he could do here vis-a-vis tariffs and counter tariffs that could help.
00:25:54.840But before we go, I want to remind everyone we've got merch from hoodies and hats to tote bags, mugs and more.
00:26:01.980You can now shop official National Post, Toronto Sun, Calgary Herald, what have you.
00:26:06.380You can get all your post media gear, a stylish way to show your connection to trusted journalism.
00:30:43.960Ian, your former boss once got in trouble for going on American TV and criticizing Canada.
00:30:49.880I don't think he does that very much anymore.
00:30:52.320But at home, should Polyev be looking to differentiate himself?
00:30:58.960A couple of ideas that have been thrown at me over the past week are that to generate support and differentiate himself, that the conservative should come out against counter tariffs or that the conservative should say, you know what, it's time to get rid of supply management.
00:31:21.040Do either of those make sense to you, Jenny?
00:31:24.780I mean, I say the counter-tariff part, knowing that Leger had a poll out showing 74% support
00:31:40.640But, you know, and supply management seems to be the third rail of Canadian politics.0.51
00:31:44.980Would doing bold things like that be wise or foolish?
00:31:52.500I don't think it makes sense to try to differentiate all that much on a negotiation that you are not in the room for and that governments want to give or that Canadians want to give their government a lot of trust on.
00:32:04.060look there's a there's a duty the opposition has to try to drive transparency and information
00:32:10.280through the process and so i was pleased to see the caucus call for parliament to come back
00:32:15.460for more information about the deal that was on the table that was rejected that sort of thing
00:32:19.180i think that's important just from a parliamentary perspective i think that's important and i think
00:32:23.320it's a good good for the conservatives to do because it's a useful role for them to play that
00:32:27.240i think canadians are open to like they want to see more even if they support the government they
00:32:30.800want to understand more about what they're supporting. But on the matter today of Canada-US
00:32:35.680relations and the specifics of the negotiation, the Conservatives cannot take up the role of
00:32:41.640government, and they can't pretend to. There is, I think, room for differentiation, and we heard it
00:32:46.960in Polyev's interview in New York today, which is on the situation Canada can control, which is to
00:32:56.260say its own economy, its own barriers to investment. You know, the prime minister has
00:33:01.000this big investment summit he's tackling over the next few days. And he's got these great
00:33:07.400relationships he's going to transact on and his experience as a banker and all of that.
00:33:11.500But what you will hear if you actually ask people who move money is we still need tax reform. We
00:33:17.460still need further deregulation. We still need to deal with our court system. Like there are so
00:33:22.260many impediments to our success and growth as a country. And Paliyev spoke to that. He was not
00:33:27.140criticizing the prime minister on the matter of Trump, but he was criticizing the government in
00:33:31.820the last decade or more of policies that have got us into the situation that we're in. Interprovincial
00:33:37.300trade is another example of where we could be doing so much more. And so to me, that's just
00:33:41.340pivoting back to that area of differentiation is where there's room and where Canadians are
00:33:46.680actually open to a different version of what could be done.
00:33:50.580Ian, going against the government's counter-tariff measures, given the polling, would it be a
00:35:51.920You know, my impression from the various emails I get is most Canadians don't understand it.
00:35:57.900They don't know what they're defending.
00:35:59.880And they're convinced that American milk is filled with bovine growth hormone that will kill us all if we get rid of supply management. So politically, is it touchable?
00:36:11.100I think that there I think the conservatives have to entertain some reforms that they propose in the lead up to the next election that are seen to be really meaningful and like take on some risk, some political risk, and that the government is less likely to touch.
00:36:30.100And actually, supply management would fit that description. Now, I think you have to do it in a way, one, that doesn't get caught up in the Canada-US conversation. And so to do it today, at the height of the rhetoric around Canada-US, I think would be a mistake, because immediately it would be perceived as siding with the Americans, or it would be lost, I think, the purity of the position from a good public policy reform perspective.
00:36:54.440Like you want that if you're going to go out on that, you want the message to be that this is a tax on single moms and it's an affordability issue. And I think there's a lot there. I think that probably the three of us would all agree from a policy perspective. But I think you have to come to it authentically and organically and you have to build the case for it and it can't be caught up in the Canada-US stuff.
00:37:15.100So supply management, I think, is worth considering. And I think there are a number of others that the opposition should quietly in the background do serious policy work on developing while they have the time, not putting out there in the public, but building out the case for more privately as they think about the next election.
00:37:37.220Ian, would taking on supply management be seen as caving to Trump right now and giving the Americans everything they want?
00:37:45.100Yes. But beyond that, I can't see there's more than about 3,000 people in the country who want to care enough to want to get rid of supply management to say anything about it.
00:37:57.120And on the other side, there's thousands of farmers, producers, processors, suppliers, whose entire careers are built around supply management.
00:38:08.880So I think if we had a multi-year campaign about hurting single mothers, we could probably get the $3,000 up to $5,000.
00:38:16.700But I think there are more accessible affordability issues than that in the offing.
00:38:25.040In particular on the dairy side, dairy farmers have been very careful about pursuing a multi-partisan strategy to preserve privileges of supply management over the course of the last 50 years.
00:38:36.880That changed a couple of weeks ago when the president of the Quebec Dairy Farmers decided to come off of the bipartisan or multi-partisan strategy and put his name forward for the Liberal Party as an MP.
00:38:51.980Took the supply management seat away from conservatives with that.
00:38:58.080That is a risky thing for dairy farmers to have done,
00:39:02.320to have abandoned the multi-partisan strategy for supply management
00:39:07.480and to captain their lot with the little party.
00:39:09.920I don't think we've seen the equity of that work their way all the way through the system yet.
00:39:13.460But tackling issues like supply management,
00:39:16.260I tend to think that's something for our government to do, not for opposition.
00:39:20.260I want to ask you both about Pierre Paglia's future as leader,
00:39:24.940which i don't see him going anywhere i don't see anybody looking to organize in a serious way
00:39:33.400against him and and yet i hear constantly that there are people running against him and mostly
00:39:40.440i hear it from the most ardent supporters of polyev online uh who are out there trying to
00:39:45.820convince everyone that doug ford is trying to take over i don't know about you but i don't
00:39:50.500really see the premier of Canada's biggest province leaving his job to become the opposition
00:39:55.200leader and live in Ottawa. Jason Kenney is going to step down from the Post media board and leave
00:40:02.740all the stuff that he's making money and run. Do you see anything out there that says Pierre
00:40:09.180Polyev's leadership is actually in jeopardy? Are people organizing? Are people happy with them?
00:40:21.180I don't think there's any coordinated effort here.
00:40:24.100I agree with your assessment that people who say that are saying in an effort, they think
00:40:28.960it's helping Mr. Polly's leadership by trying to pretend that somebody's going to leave
00:40:33.600a very nice job, a pretty much a province, to run for two years.
00:40:38.220It's obvious we're going to have a chance to become prime minister in the future.
00:40:41.600In the real world, political people don't do that.
00:40:43.800And that said, Mr. Polioff's challenge, I don't think, is the people running for his leadership, but for promising MPs in that kind of late 30s, early 40s group who have their eye on an opportunity to govern, just opting out and deciding to do something else for their career.
00:41:06.000But let's keep in mind that Stephen Harper did that ahead of the 1997 election when he decided the form wasn't going anywhere and took an option to run the National Citizens Coalition.
00:41:17.500I mean, he came back later, but he was in that prime age group where he looked around and said, I could do better things with my life than this is in opposition forever.
00:41:56.620I try as little as possible to put too much stock in what people say online these days, honestly, from both sides of the aisle, but especially within the conservative tent.
00:42:04.980You know, there's some malaise, and where there is a leadership vacuum or a lack of clarity around the core message and the discipline to stick to it, or even just the rules of discipline, by the way, you're going to see a bit of that.
00:42:22.060And I agree with Ian that I hope the fall sort of puts an end to that.
00:42:26.620and that everyone starts rowing in the same direction.
00:42:28.840I hope also that some of the bright lights of young, exciting people who were drawn to run,
00:42:35.440because, frankly, they thought the Conservatives were going to win the night,
00:42:38.100not just actually that they thought the Conservatives were going to win the election,
00:42:40.660but because they were excited about the kind of movement the Conservatives were building
00:44:01.880And so you don't want to rely on that too much.
00:44:05.800But I think that's the unspoken piece in all of this.
00:44:07.920And it's why I think he's still, even though there's grumbling and frustrations that come from losing, he still has the ability to make what he wants of the next year or subsequent years.
00:44:20.000If MPs were to use the Reform Act to dispose of him, I can't think of anyone in caucus that would beat him if he did decide to run in the future leadership race.
00:44:31.180But, you know, does he have to be concerned about the Reform Act this fall?
00:44:48.940I think Brock did great work while in the five years he was an MP in prosecuting the liberal government's awful justice policies, and now he's going back to being a prosecutor and he's going to put bad guys in jail, hopefully.
00:45:02.900But if that by-election in Brantford is lost, and sadly it's a possibility, it shouldn't be, but it's a possibility, if the Liberals take that, do hungry wolves around the caucus room start looking around and saying, as I put it last week, I'm not going to let you keep your job so that I can lose mine and lose my seat in the next election?
00:45:31.020Does he have to be concerned about that?
00:45:34.140Look, you always have to be worried about re-electing the people in your caucus who are planning to run again.
00:45:39.920And losing a riding like Barack's riding would be a very difficult setback.
00:45:46.560Mr. Trudeau, this leadership in the little party was, I think, the end of it was hastened by some by-election results in the fall of 2024 that went against the party and see that they should have won.
00:45:58.680And I think the comparison to Brantford here is a little bit stretched.
00:46:05.240I think this is why it's important for the people around the leader to acknowledge,
00:46:10.660look, we're 20 points back, and we're going to be 20 points back for a while.
00:46:15.140I think it's important for people to absorb that the party is in very tough shape in the polling right now.
00:46:20.200Not to say, you know, the pollsters are in the liberal back pocket or this person's positive polling,
00:46:26.440all that stuff, but they avoid the fact.
00:46:28.680No, the polling was bad, and the impact of that is going to be felt in the by-election as it is everywhere else.
00:46:38.560But, you know, I lost count of how many party leaders I've had to say, don't pay any attention to the by-election.
00:46:49.540Mr. Harper had a pretty miserable spring of by-elections on the run-up to 2004 and 2006.
00:46:56.200Don't make any strategic decisions about your future based on a by-election result, and I stand by that advice today.
00:47:04.880The issue of the people around the leader, one of the things that I keep hearing from folks in the party, in the movement,
00:47:16.420is that the number of people around Pierre that he's actually engaging with and talking to is shrinking,
00:47:21.700and that it is just down to a very tight crew of, I mentioned Steve Outhouse, Aaron Woodrick, and not a lot more.
00:47:33.520I get going insular when things go bad, but does Polyev need to get out there and,
00:47:42.180look, I'm seeing Doug Ford on my TV screen now because he had his cabinet shuffled there,
00:47:46.460But, you know, I think it's beyond repair with Doug Ford, but getting friendlier with Danielle Smith and Scott Moe and Tim Houston and expanding the circle, expanding the tent, expanding who you're listening to.
00:48:01.160Does he have to do that instead of just going inward?
00:48:05.420Look, I think we make too much about thecomings and goings of political staff inside political offices.
00:48:12.100In the end, people vote for leaders, for MPs, for the people who put their name from the ballot,
00:48:16.980not for the people in some office somewhere on Parliament Hill.
00:48:21.100If there's worries about the circle being too small or too big,
00:48:25.960sure, that's an internal matter that can get sorted out.
00:48:29.440The question is, what kind of candidates, if we're going to go to this issue,
00:48:32.820what kind of candidates is Topolio going to put forward as his potential ministers
00:48:41.380As Jimmy said, we have a strong tradition inside the party of leaders being elected in one number one vote and candidates being selected in one number one vote.
00:48:51.280That's the strength of the party, I agree.
00:48:53.680That doesn't lift the responsibility to go out and find some people who are a well-known figure from provincial or from municipal politics or from other segments of society
00:49:42.120You know, I worked on Mr. Paglia's leadership campaign,
00:49:46.720and one of the things that drew me to him was the way he runs things.
00:49:51.720Because I had worked with previous politicians
00:49:53.980who were really only interested in what their advisors had to say.
00:49:57.860And, you know, if you were to ask them why they were running
00:50:00.740Or sort of, you know, what do you actually want to do that there would really be an answer there? And that's just not something that interests me in politics. I don't think it makes for good leaders. I don't think it makes for good premiers and prime ministers and cabinet ministers.
00:50:14.920um but that but the challenge with being sort of really sure about what you want to do being a
00:50:20.960principled person um people talk about pierre poly of basically believing the same things
00:50:25.420core principles since he was like 17 years old or whatever um the there are tons of upsides to that
00:50:31.480the downside is it's really hard to scale now when you're opposition leader you don't need to scale
00:50:35.940all that much it's a pretty relatively small operation um but as we approached the last
00:50:40.760election campaign, my concern was actually that we would win and we wouldn't be able to scale up
00:50:45.420to the operation that is required of a government. And that we wouldn't be able to translate those
00:50:50.900principles and that vision down into a cabinet and a public service and the senior staff that
00:50:57.540would need to go and execute against that plan. Maybe there are some upsides or some silver
00:51:02.820linings having lost the election. I think one of them could be that if as we approach the next
00:51:07.240election, as we think about plans and platform and that sort of thing, that we think in terms
00:51:11.220of what would be required to scale to the level of government. And so today, Ian's right, who the
00:51:17.260junior staff are around the opposition leader doesn't really matter all that much, or the senior
00:51:20.780staff for that matter. But the plan to scale up and to present the kind of ideas that can only be
00:51:26.660executed at scale is, I think, much more important. And I hope that there's some thinking going into
00:51:31.300what that looks like when we get out of this tough spot that we're in right now.
00:51:34.500Well, to the points that both of you have been making on that front, I remember after the conservatives lost the election in 04, I was on the radio and it was one of these panel shows and we're talking and they just said, there's no bench strength in the conservatives right now.
00:51:53.520this is just after the 04 election and there wasn't a government in waiting and I disagreed
00:52:00.780with that to a degree but by the time the 06 or 05 is when it started by the time that election
00:52:07.240came around you guys have gone out and recruited John Baird and Jim Flaherty and Tony Clement
00:52:12.940and a whole pile of people across the country that were suddenly running for you and it's like
00:52:17.900okay, there is the government waiting, and Canadians entrusted them, I mean, for various
00:52:23.340reasons. Do either of you have concerns about the, you know, the proxy war that we're seeing play out
00:52:30.840with the BC Conservatives and infighting within the Conservative movement being a drag on what's
00:52:37.780going on? BC is, you know, there was a bit of a proxy war in the leadership between different
00:52:41.900federal factions and then we're seeing that fall apart but the online sniping the anger the
00:52:48.400purity tests and does that any of that worry you i i really try i think i said this earlier to try
00:52:56.200not to focus too much on what happens online because it couldn't be further away from what
00:53:00.300will be on the minds of voters when we get closer to an election um but when you're not uh winning
00:53:05.860you you have people who um are frustrated that they didn't win who want to criticize why we
00:53:11.840didn't win. And the Canada-US dynamic, I think, exposes that because this mono issue becomes
00:53:21.840the sole fixation and there isn't a new winning message on other matters for everyone to kind of
00:53:26.940rally around and seize on. But I think those issues sort of solve themselves when you solve
00:53:32.000the discipline and the messaging issue first. Not everyone's going to fall in line, particularly
00:53:37.300when you're an opposition. And conservatives, I think, have a rich history of not falling in line
00:53:43.160the way liberals do. And sometimes it serves as well, sometimes it serves as, sometimes it doesn't.
00:53:47.660It's part of what drew me to the party is the fact that we have this bigger movement where
00:53:51.500there's all kinds of rich debate all the time. And I actually think, you know, the attention
00:53:57.980is on the conservatives right now because we've lost the last election. But with global politics
00:54:02.240moving the way that they are, parties on both sides have to grapple with how serious they are
00:54:08.960about free trade, how serious they are about protectionism, whether they want to care more
00:54:14.100about cultural issues or economic issues. And there's this mix-up happening across the whole
00:54:19.440political spectrum. The Carney coalition holds together some views that are very,
00:54:25.380very challenging to reconcile, whether it's climate and energy. It's just that he's winning
00:54:30.680right now. And so those issues fall by the wayside and people fall in line. And the
00:54:35.680Conservatives haven't. So those issues arise. And I think broadly, it's healthy. I think
00:54:40.760it's unhelpful when it gets personal. Well, you know, coming up in politics, I was always
00:54:45.600kind of taught that unless your name's on the ballot, you should shut up and keep your
00:54:50.300conversations private. And I basically try to abide by that and not keep it personal.
00:54:54.080And I think that should be true for everyone. But on the substance of just, is there debate
00:55:00.060happening in the movement. Yeah, I mean, there always is. It tends to go away when we form
00:55:04.860government or quiet down a little bit and then pick back up when we're in opposition. And we
00:55:08.180didn't win the last election. So it's picked back up. Ian, any thoughts?
00:55:14.480Look, you talked about the fallout from the 2004 election and then the expansion that went on
00:55:22.000between 2004 and 2005. Of course, I was there for all of that. In the midst of that, I recall a
00:55:29.080couple of days when a conservative MP crossed the floor to become Minister of Human Resources and
00:55:35.020Social Development. She'd run against Mr. Harper for the leadership of the combined party. This was
00:55:41.140supposed to have been a low point in the existence of the party. This was supposed to have felt the
00:55:46.600death knell for Mr. Harper's leadership. This was the Liberals were on the ascend. They were going
00:55:51.320to win 250 seats, or whatever the book said, the book about it.
00:55:57.900The correct amount of race, that was the day that the conservative Coggett decided we have0.89
00:58:11.020In U.S. discourse, you often hear reference to what the framers of their own constitution would think about the state of their handiwork in the 21st century.
00:58:20.140Things like, sure, George Washington supported Second Amendment gun rights in the age of the musket, but what about an AR-15?
00:58:28.360Well, the neat thing about Canada's Charter of Rights and Freedoms is that several of its framers lived long enough to state that all their worst fears about the document had been confirmed.
00:59:33.080okay, well, we don't want that, and we don't want that,
00:59:36.040And that partly for political reasons, maybe, that now the cat was out, that everyone can see in the future and see what would happen if we did do this and that.
00:59:45.040And here's Blakeney, the socialist from Saskatchewan in 2005.0.98
00:59:49.640Right now, the conventional wisdom is that our splendid parliamentary system with a wise electorate somehow elects only fools and knaves.0.99
00:59:58.780Fools and knaves who appoint judges who are wise.0.99
01:00:02.040Somehow the judges are invested with superhuman wisdom.1.00