Mainstreet's latest polls show a possible shift as Conservatives edge ahead for the first time
Episode Stats
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Summary
In this episode, we discuss the Mainstreet Research poll that showed the Tories gaining ground on the Liberals in the polls, and the implications for the coming election. We also talk about the impact of the debate, and what we can learn from it.
Transcript
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every day or every other day on the campaign we get a new poll from main street research and i
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noticed over the weekend on saturday they had a poll that had the conservatives up two points this
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is the first poll that i have seen conservatives winning maybe in the entire election campaign or
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at least in the last two two and a half three weeks and so main street found that the tories
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are up by 2%, 44% to the Liberals, 42%. I'm not sure if that would equate to, I think that would
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still equate to a Liberal minority, if I recall correctly, just given that the Liberal vote is
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more efficient in those suburbs. But look at the NDP. So even with the total, total collapse of the
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NDP at only 6%, they still had the Conservatives up at 44%. And then just in full transparency,
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they did have another poll that they put out the next day and that one had the opposite basically
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they had the liberals at 44 in the second poll and the conservatives at 43 so either way though
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main street is definitely picking up and capturing something that is obviously a major shift right
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this is the first time i guess the first time we've seen conservatives ahead or even that close
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in a poll that high 43 conservatives even in their second one 44 so first of all maybe you
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comment on this poll and what you think of this firm and their results here and then second like
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has the mood of the country shifted has the has there been like a vibe change that has allowed
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poliev to really have the momentum and and really be heading into the home stretch with more and
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more enthusiasm on the side for sure so on this poll specifically i think it's very notable that
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it's an uh ivr poll so this is done like through your phone um what ivr polls are particularly
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good at at least from my experience they're good at being the first to detect movement and the
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direction that it's going in they i found that the magnitude for which the direction to which
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the movement actually happens that's up for debate i think that the actual like end point for which
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it like consolidates around at the end that's also up for today the debate but they're typically the
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first to actually break that there is a movement in a certain given direction and so i think it's
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very interesting that we're starting to see uh at least one other pollster notably with this