Juno News - Mainstreet's latest polls show a possible shift as Conservatives edge ahead for the first time

00:00:00.000 every day or every other day on the campaign we get a new poll from main street research and i

00:00:06.400 noticed over the weekend on saturday they had a poll that had the conservatives up two points this

00:00:12.720 is the first poll that i have seen conservatives winning maybe in the entire election campaign or

00:00:18.160 at least in the last two two and a half three weeks and so main street found that the tories

00:00:23.120 are up by 2%, 44% to the Liberals, 42%. I'm not sure if that would equate to, I think that would

00:00:30.720 still equate to a Liberal minority, if I recall correctly, just given that the Liberal vote is

00:00:36.040 more efficient in those suburbs. But look at the NDP. So even with the total, total collapse of the

00:00:41.680 NDP at only 6%, they still had the Conservatives up at 44%. And then just in full transparency,

00:00:50.360 they did have another poll that they put out the next day and that one had the opposite basically

00:00:56.120 they had the liberals at 44 in the second poll and the conservatives at 43 so either way though

00:01:03.180 main street is definitely picking up and capturing something that is obviously a major shift right

00:01:09.860 this is the first time i guess the first time we've seen conservatives ahead or even that close

00:01:13.760 in a poll that high 43 conservatives even in their second one 44 so first of all maybe you

00:01:19.400 comment on this poll and what you think of this firm and their results here and then second like

00:01:25.880 has the mood of the country shifted has the has there been like a vibe change that has allowed

00:01:32.680 poliev to really have the momentum and and really be heading into the home stretch with more and

00:01:38.440 more enthusiasm on the side for sure so on this poll specifically i think it's very notable that

00:01:44.120 it's an uh ivr poll so this is done like through your phone um what ivr polls are particularly

00:01:51.080 good at at least from my experience they're good at being the first to detect movement and the

00:01:56.280 direction that it's going in they i found that the magnitude for which the direction to which

00:02:02.440 the movement actually happens that's up for debate i think that the actual like end point for which

00:02:06.840 it like consolidates around at the end that's also up for today the debate but they're typically the

00:02:12.040 first to actually break that there is a movement in a certain given direction and so i think it's

00:02:17.640 very interesting that we're starting to see uh at least one other pollster notably with this

00:02:22.920 methodology to see this.

Juno News - April 17, 2025