Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 11, 2020


Episode 1089 Scott Adams： Kamala Harris it is. Boom.

Topics
geo-payments
Hosted by
Scott Adams
Mentioned
Joe Biden Obama Trump Greg Goffeld Sam Harris Karen Bass Trey Gowdy George Takai George Conway Hillary Clinton Mike Pence Vegas Eric
Episode 1087 Scott Adams： What I Think is Bullshit About Coronavirus Opinions. Biden's Rotting Brain, Election Predictions Episode 1090 Scott Adams： Join me To Find out if Kamala Harrass is the Right Pick for Grabby Biden

Episode Stats


Length

17 minutes

Words per minute

126.68

Word count

2,259

Sentence count

226

Harmful content

Misogyny

7

sentences flagged

Toxicity

12

sentences flagged

Hate speech

6

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In 2018, I predicted that Joe Biden would be the Democratic presidential nominee. Two years later, I was correct. And guess what? It was the best prediction I've ever made, and I'm here to tell you why.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum dum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum 1.00
00:00:25.160 BELL RINGS
00:00:55.140 I did predict this one.
00:00:57.820 Let's see how much money I made on predicted.
00:01:05.700 You're never going to hear the end of this.
00:01:09.800 All right.
00:01:10.520 For those of you who don't know the backstory, let me fill you in.
00:01:15.200 So as some of you know, in 2018, just about exactly two years from today, I was sitting
00:01:27.660 in President Trump's office.
00:01:30.780 I just sort of absorbed this.
00:01:33.840 It's 2018.
00:01:36.120 Two years ago.
00:01:37.660 I'm sitting in Trump's office.
00:01:41.000 Literally, I'm in the Oval Office.
00:01:43.720 And the president says to me, two years ago, who do you think is going to be the nominee?
00:01:51.400 I said, Kamala Harris.
00:01:53.500 And he said, Joe Biden.
00:02:00.480 And I gave, you know, my argument.
00:02:04.300 And then when Kamala Harris dropped out of the race, I doubled down. 0.99
00:02:11.100 The dumbest thing anybody ever did. 0.99
00:02:15.060 Right? 0.99
00:02:16.120 You don't call somebody to be the nominee, the head of the ticket, if they've dropped out
00:02:23.680 of the race, unless the head of the ticket is a hollowed-down puppet.
00:02:32.460 But in which case, getting the vice presidential nomination might make you the nominee in a practical
00:02:45.200 sense.
00:02:47.800 So I'm not going to say this is the greatest prediction I've ever made.
00:02:52.860 I'm going to shout.
00:02:56.900 It's the best prediction I've ever made.
00:03:00.160 Because if you remember how much of a risk I took, most of you do, back in 2015 when I
00:03:08.500 said Trump would win it all, do you have any idea how much of a reputational risk that
00:03:14.760 was?
00:03:15.840 That was a very, very unlikely outcome in 2015.
00:03:19.920 In 2018, I may have called the nominee out of, what, 100 possibilities?
00:03:33.320 I gotta say, you're never going to hear the end of this. 0.99
00:03:38.620 How many of you thought I was a frickin' idiot for the last, well, probably year? 1.00
00:03:44.760 How many thought I was the dumbest frickin' guy? 1.00
00:03:49.920 That ever made a prediction? 1.00
00:03:52.160 You didn't believe me, did you?
00:03:55.420 You didn't believe me.
00:03:58.580 So, here we are.
00:04:00.360 Hey, Eric.
00:04:01.640 Glad you could join us.
00:04:03.240 I'm just here gloating.
00:04:04.720 For those of you who are joining in late, this is my finest prediction.
00:04:11.120 And I should just, I should never make another prediction.
00:04:13.980 I should just, I should never make another prediction.
00:04:17.900 If I go out with this one.
00:04:21.460 Now, let me remind you of my other very contrarian predictions.
00:04:26.100 And by the way, I'm not going to claim I get all of them right, right?
00:04:29.220 I got the vice presidential pick wrong for Trump, for example.
00:04:34.260 So, I get plenty wrong.
00:04:35.720 But when I hit one that's really unusual, I like to call it out.
00:04:40.980 And I'll remind you that when the Vegas shooter was killing people in Vegas, the mass shooting there,
00:04:47.840 that I said it would not be ISIS.
00:04:52.400 And then ISIS took credit for it.
00:04:54.840 And after ISIS took credit for it, I said, no, it's not ISIS.
00:05:01.980 It wasn't ISIS.
00:05:03.960 When the Cuban embassy was attacked by the sonic weapon, what did I say?
00:05:12.080 Only person in the world, as far as I know, only person in the world who said,
00:05:17.560 they're not going to find a sonic weapon.
00:05:20.160 Oh, they can look pretty hard, but they're not going to find a sonic weapon.
00:05:24.840 And if you're hoping that that little smudge that you think was an alien spaceship
00:05:30.280 that was moving really fast on video from the cockpit, you know, the military aircraft,
00:05:37.540 nope.
00:05:40.640 I'm afraid you're not going to see any aliens.
00:05:43.600 So, let me predict that that was not an alien spaceship closer to some kind of reflection.
00:05:50.560 Now, somebody says I was wrong.
00:05:53.560 I was technically wrong about Kamala being the top pick.
00:06:01.920 Or was I?
00:06:05.320 We're not done yet, right?
00:06:07.320 Is it election day?
00:06:08.720 Let me check the dates.
00:06:11.740 Nope.
00:06:13.100 It's not election day.
00:06:15.000 Is it the convention?
00:06:16.940 Has the convention already happened?
00:06:18.580 Um, nope.
00:06:21.860 It hasn't.
00:06:23.500 Now, whether or not Joe Biden literally steps aside,
00:06:28.940 I don't think there's anybody watching this who thinks that he will be in control.
00:06:34.140 And when you pick a strong vice president, and one that was legitimately in the running for
00:06:41.460 being the, you know, the president the normal way, when you pick somebody that strong,
00:06:47.820 you're kind of picking the person who's running the country.
00:06:51.580 And I got news for you.
00:06:56.140 She helps the ticket a lot.
00:06:59.440 I know it doesn't seem like that.
00:07:01.520 But one thing that wouldn't hurt Joe Biden at all would be to have a tough-on-crime person-of-color woman.
00:07:12.440 Pretty strong choice.
00:07:14.720 Somebody says, am I CIA?
00:07:19.600 If I am, they're not paying me.
00:07:22.220 So, you know, I want a paycheck if I am.
00:07:28.280 Is she not better than Biden, though?
00:07:30.620 And the ticket is unbalanced.
00:07:32.660 Yeah, so I've often said that the perfect vice president pick is somebody who's, you know,
00:07:38.220 a grade lower in persona and magnetism and, you know, ability even maybe compared to who's on top.
00:07:47.160 Because you want to very clearly see, oh, yeah, you know, Trump is technicolor.
00:07:53.420 You know, Trump is 1,000 watts all the time.
00:07:56.620 And Mike Pence is a 60-watt bulb.
00:07:59.240 A really good one.
00:08:00.640 I'm very pro-Pence in terms of his capabilities and the job that he's done as vice president.
00:08:06.380 I think he's the most underrated.
00:08:08.840 I would say Pence is one of the most underrated civil servants.
00:08:13.180 Because he has a job where you just are supposed to not make mistakes.
00:08:17.160 And he does that really well.
00:08:19.320 He does that really well.
00:08:20.560 He doesn't cause trouble.
00:08:22.040 And he's just a solid, solid person.
00:08:24.120 But in this one specific case, you, because the head of the ticket is a little wobbly, shall we say?
00:08:32.160 Shall we say he's a little wobbly?
00:08:35.040 If you had somebody who was below Joe Biden, you would have the problem that they would be two levels watered down.
00:08:42.240 Because remember, Biden is still the same Biden who didn't look good compared to Obama, right?
00:08:49.800 Obama picked a perfect vice president, didn't cause trouble, and definitely didn't look as interesting, appealing as Obama did, as a person, as a politician, as anything, really.
00:09:02.640 So if you start with Obama as, you know, somebody who could solidly win, and you say, well, his vice president's not, he's no Obama, he's a level below, which was perfect for being a vice president.
00:09:15.600 And if he picks somebody that's below him, now you're two levels below Obama, your vice president's going to look like what?
00:09:27.840 Like what would be one level?
00:09:30.680 I think people are going to be texting me to note my accurate pick.
00:09:36.220 But if you had a vice president pick who was two levels below Biden, who the hell would that be?
00:09:43.520 Right?
00:09:44.420 It wouldn't even be, you'd have to go sub-mammal. 1.00
00:09:47.820 You'd have to say, Joe, we've been looking for somebody who's, you know, a level below you, and we've exhausted all of our mammalian possibilities.
00:10:00.620 We're thinking of extending our search into the rest of the animal kingdom.
00:10:06.220 Maybe an anteater.
00:10:08.660 I don't know.
00:10:09.560 We've got to look around.
00:10:11.840 So Joe Biden was a special case.
00:10:14.520 He needed a stronger vice president than he is as a candidate, and Kamala gives you that because she's got the senator experience. 1.00
00:10:22.220 It would have been a huge mistake to go Karen Bass.
00:10:26.940 But, but, here's the scariest part.
00:10:32.700 And I can't remember who said this.
00:10:34.760 It was somebody smart.
00:10:37.500 Greg Goffeld?
00:10:38.560 It might have been Greg Goffeld who said this.
00:10:40.300 But I remember thinking, oh, God, that's true.
00:10:44.940 I think he was the one who said if the Democrats had won, God, was it him or was it somebody else?
00:10:50.540 Somebody help me on the, because it was just on TV the other day.
00:10:54.740 Help me with who said this.
00:10:55.940 But if the Democrats had run two women on the, basically, the anniversary of suffrage and getting the vote, it would be a home run. 0.96
00:11:05.740 Two women.
00:11:07.040 And I think to myself, oh, yeah, that would be.
00:11:10.600 A double woman ticket would be really hard for Trump. 1.00
00:11:16.060 It just, the matchup would be terrible.
00:11:18.540 It would be the worst case scenario.
00:11:20.560 And if Biden drops out, well, if Biden did drop out before the election, you've got yourself a double woman ticket.
00:11:31.160 And it would be a real problem.
00:11:34.100 It would be a real problem for Trump, I think.
00:11:36.500 Just because a double woman ticket almost just guarantees you get pretty much all the women. 1.00
00:11:42.540 And then they just got to get somebody else.
00:11:45.740 And they're done.
00:11:47.420 So not all the women.
00:11:48.960 But you know what I mean.
00:11:49.900 So there you go.
00:12:00.140 Somebody's mentioning George Conway in an unflattering way.
00:12:04.620 And I'm not too proud to say it made me laugh.
00:12:10.440 I really didn't have much to say.
00:12:13.340 But I didn't feel like I could not share this moment in public.
00:12:17.760 Do you know how long I've waited to get the final answer?
00:12:22.300 Because I was so far out there.
00:12:24.400 Like, you know, so far out on a plank.
00:12:27.200 There just weren't a lot of people agreeing with me until recently.
00:12:30.200 She was leading in the betting until very recently.
00:12:35.660 So at least maybe a quarter of the people agreed with me.
00:12:39.600 Oh, I'm getting the, well, some saying it was Greg Guffield.
00:12:47.760 Some said Trey Gowdy.
00:12:49.300 Well, it wasn't Trey Gowdy.
00:12:51.440 I think it might have been Greg Guffield said it on the day that Trey Gowdy was on the show on The Five.
00:12:57.520 I think that's what it was.
00:12:59.040 Well, anyway, it was a very insightful comment because it would be a killer ticket.
00:13:06.900 And it does, however, ruin the pun I had all, you know, all queued up.
00:13:18.260 Are you ready?
00:13:19.020 Obviously, if Biden had picked Bass as his vice president and somebody accused her of lying, because eventually every politician gets accused of lying.
00:13:32.080 I have no reason to believe that she lies because I don't know much about her, so I won't make that claim.
00:13:37.120 I'm just saying, if you're running for president, you might get accused of a lie.
00:13:43.220 And I was going to break this out on Twitter.
00:13:46.560 Bass lies matter.
00:13:48.560 Come on.
00:13:49.220 That would have been pretty good.
00:13:52.540 Probably would have been canceled for it.
00:13:54.660 But totally worth it for a good pun.
00:13:57.180 Totally worth it.
00:13:59.100 Somebody says it's a hollow victory.
00:14:01.040 Is that a pun?
00:14:03.640 I can't tell.
00:14:06.780 All right.
00:14:08.000 That's enough gloating for me.
00:14:09.640 I'm going to get back to doing something else.
00:14:12.220 But somebody says great guess.
00:14:17.840 Great guess.
00:14:20.000 This is skill.
00:14:23.220 Oh, no.
00:14:25.140 Oh, no.
00:14:26.480 Oh, no.
00:14:27.140 I just saw a comment that I can't unsee.
00:14:30.220 All right.
00:14:31.040 I don't even want to say it, but geo-payments.
00:14:38.940 Can you all...
00:14:40.220 Is it too late?
00:14:41.300 I stopped it on my end, but I think the comments are going by at your end.
00:14:45.220 All right.
00:14:46.060 If there are children in the room, you should send them away.
00:14:51.020 Okay?
00:14:51.320 All the children, send them away. 0.94
00:14:55.480 There's a parting joke courtesy of geo-payments.
00:15:00.640 geo-payments at geo-payments.
00:15:04.100 Here's the...
00:15:04.820 This is just devilishly good.
00:15:10.500 And his joke is that the ticket will be Joe Blow.
00:15:21.760 Joe Blow 2020.
00:15:25.380 Joe Blow 2020.
00:15:31.240 All right.
00:15:31.820 Now, I have to be honest.
00:15:34.160 I do not approve.
00:15:35.940 And I mean this seriously.
00:15:37.160 This is a serious statement, even though I'm laughing when I say it.
00:15:40.440 I don't approve of any of the Kamala Harris sexual insults about her past. 1.00
00:15:47.920 I just don't like it.
00:15:49.260 I don't like fat shaming.
00:15:50.720 I don't like, you know, any kind of mocking people for their sexual preference.
00:15:55.720 I don't like any of that stuff.
00:15:57.180 And I don't like it when women especially are being piled on for, you know, whatever experiences they've had in the past. 1.00
00:16:04.500 That's their business, not mine. 0.98
00:16:06.420 That said, all of that said, and I mean it sincerely, it's not a place that I think is appropriate for joking.
00:16:15.540 That said, Joe Blow 2020 is one of the best jokes ever.
00:16:23.600 And that's not my fault.
00:16:25.500 It's not my fault that I laugh at that.
00:16:27.620 I'm a victim.
00:16:28.340 I'm a victim, just like you are.
00:16:31.440 If you're laughing at that, you're a terrible person, just like me. 1.00
00:16:36.080 You're deplorable. 0.96
00:16:37.780 I just saw George Takei, who's a big Trump critic, who said that whoever the vice presidential candidate is, 0.71
00:16:48.580 that they should stop piling on each other as Democrats because, you know, as soon as that person is selected,
00:16:54.500 George Takei said that Trump and his goons would be coming after her.
00:17:00.780 And I tweeted back to him and said, we prefer to be called deplorables, but it would be a great band name. 0.97
00:17:07.060 You know, Trump and his goons. 0.85
00:17:09.240 It would be a great band name.
00:17:11.020 But how in the world did we not see Joe Blow?
00:17:16.440 All right, I'm not going to tweet that because I'm quite serious about I don't think it's a fair line of attack.
00:17:26.000 You know, when Bill Clinton was in office and he was having his stuff, I was adamant that we shouldn't care.
00:17:34.200 I'm not going to change that as standard.
00:17:37.080 You know, I don't care what they do.
00:17:38.640 I don't care about the personal life.
00:17:40.180 It's just not my business and it shouldn't have an effect on them doing the job.
00:17:47.280 So that's all I have for now.
00:17:48.960 I'll talk to you later.