Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1669 Scott Adams： The Endgame in Ukraine Might Not Go The Way You Think

00:00:00.560 Ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the only positive thing that's happening in the whole

00:00:06.720 damn world.

00:00:07.520 It's called Coffee with Scott Adams, and aren't the people who are not here missing it?

00:00:14.260 Probably.

00:00:15.700 People who are, you know, say on airplanes or whatever, for whatever reason, they couldn't

00:00:19.620 make you here, imagine how bad they feel, but not you.

00:00:24.080 You're a winner.

00:00:24.780 Today, you made it in time for the simultaneous sip, possibly in a recorded version.

00:00:30.840 Won't matter to you at all.

00:00:33.180 And now, can you join me in taking it up a notch, and all you need is a cup or mug or a glass

00:00:41.120 or a tank or a gel, a cyanide canteen jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind, fill it with

00:00:48.100 your favorite beverage, I like coffee, and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure

00:00:54.760 and the dopamine of the day thing that makes everything better.

00:00:57.040 It's called the simultaneous sip.

00:01:00.720 Go.

00:01:05.880 You know, no joke, this was one of the finest sips I've ever enjoyed in my entire life.

00:01:13.300 You would think to yourself, you know, there can't be one sip of coffee that's the best

00:01:20.200 one you've ever had, but then you enjoy it, and then suddenly you realize, I've been wrong

00:01:25.960 all of these years.

00:01:27.620 There would be one sip that would be the sip that bound them all.

00:01:32.800 The sip of all sips, the siptastic. 0.95

00:01:36.200 That's right.

00:01:37.520 And that was it.

00:01:38.200 I'm glad you could be here for it.

00:01:41.620 Well, did any of you see the, there's a clip from Saturday Night Live in which the cast

00:01:47.680 is sort of, I can't say mocking and masking within the same paragraph.

00:01:56.480 They're too close.

00:01:58.080 They were mocking the masking.

00:02:01.020 Yes, they were mocking masking.

00:02:02.200 It was a lot of masking mocking, as well as a booster, booster booing.

00:02:09.240 So there was booster booing, and although they weren't really booing them, they were

00:02:13.500 basically making fun of the social conundrum that people have when they just try to have

00:02:19.160 a social, a social event and somebody brings up any of the pandemic stuff.

00:02:24.240 And it was really good.

00:02:26.480 I have to, I have to commend them.

00:02:28.340 It was actually some of the best work.

00:02:29.920 Honestly, it was some of the best work I've seen on Saturday Night Live in their entire

00:02:35.480 run.

00:02:36.060 So take a look at that if you get a chance.

00:02:39.580 Did anybody notice any cyber attacks on any American-used websites today?

00:02:47.240 Or was it just my Wi-Fi was bad?

00:02:50.680 I was having troubles with Amazon.

00:02:54.060 No, no trouble.

00:02:56.060 I might have just had a local problem.

00:02:58.260 Okay.

00:02:59.220 Just me.

00:03:00.540 Just me.

00:03:01.720 Never mind.

00:03:03.620 Just, just rewind and forget that.

00:03:08.900 Amazon's working, but it was really slow this morning.

00:03:11.660 I wondered if it had some kind of denial of service problem.

00:03:14.540 But I guess we're all good.

00:03:16.120 So, yay.

00:03:17.220 California, and I guess a few other states like California, are going to lift their school

00:03:25.160 mask requirement after March 11th.

00:03:30.100 Because, as you know, I think there's at least one district in California that'll keep masking, and some of the schools, I think, can still decide to do it or not.

00:03:44.220 But for those of you who were worried we'd always be masked, and I think there were some, is there anybody who thought we would always be masked, just perpetually?

00:03:57.880 Did any of you?

00:03:59.940 Did any of you, some of you did, right?

00:04:01.900 Or at least you were worried about it.

00:04:03.880 I was never worried about that.

00:04:05.520 But, but I can actually see how you would be.

00:04:10.980 You know, in retrospect, in hindsight, as the masking does disappear, it's going to feel a little bit ridiculous that you ever thought it would be permanent.

00:04:23.180 On the other hand, to support your view, almost everything that's happened in the last two years has been ridiculous.

00:04:31.540 Am I right?

00:04:32.080 So when you say something that sounds ridiculous to my ears, which is that masks will be permanent even after the pandemic's over, to my ears, that just sounds ridiculous.

00:04:44.340 But you know what else sounds ridiculous?

00:04:46.720 Everything that happened in the last two years.

00:04:49.400 So there's just nothing that's too ridiculous anymore.

00:04:52.340 There's just nothing that's over the line.

00:04:54.720 You know, Putin going into Ukraine?

00:04:57.520 I didn't see it coming.

00:04:58.720 I mean, two years ago, that would seem a little ridiculous, I think.

00:05:03.840 Not to smart people.

00:05:05.080 Smart people saw it coming for 15 years.

00:05:07.540 But I was not among the smart on that topic, as it turns out.

00:05:11.620 Surprise.

00:05:13.440 All right.

00:05:14.740 Biden's going to give a State of the Union tonight.

00:05:16.860 What are we expecting from that?

00:05:20.000 Probably.

00:05:21.940 I don't want to get ahead of things, but

00:05:24.940 oratory genius, perhaps.

00:05:34.240 Soaring rhetoric.

00:05:39.400 Inspirational.

00:05:39.960 You know, I feel as if when I watch Biden speaking tonight,

00:05:46.140 my mind's eye will see eagles flying and freedom breaking out everywhere.

00:05:51.300 Because he's exactly the kind of leader you need in anxious times.

00:05:57.660 The kind of leader who inspires confidence.

00:06:00.800 In fact, one of the ways that you can know

00:06:02.880 that the man is squarely in charge of things is body language.

00:06:09.100 Body language says a lot.

00:06:12.080 A lot of people think body language is a pseudoscience, but not me.

00:06:16.160 Not me.

00:06:16.760 I can read into body language just like a fingerprint.

00:06:21.320 I can get certainty from body language.

00:06:24.080 In fact, yesterday there was a video that a lot of people were talking about

00:06:28.080 of Biden walking across the lawn to get to the helicopter.

00:06:33.740 And some people were making fun of the way he walked.

00:06:37.120 Now, I'm going to do an impression of the way he walked

00:06:39.520 just to show you that I think you're out of line a little bit.

00:06:44.000 It might be the simulation winking at us a little bit,

00:06:47.460 but nothing to worry about.

00:06:49.480 And now, without further ado,

00:06:53.620 I give you my impression of Biden walking.

00:06:57.200 If you'd like to be able to do this at home,

00:07:00.520 it's not very difficult.

00:07:03.040 What you want to do is you want to stretch first.

00:07:05.720 Stretch.

00:07:06.180 Stretching is important for everything,

00:07:07.780 not just Biden walking.

00:07:09.320 This, a little of that.

00:07:15.380 All right.

00:07:15.740 Now, you're ready for Biden walking.

00:07:17.800 You want to get into the mindset.

00:07:20.220 Okay?

00:07:20.700 Now, remember, Biden is thin and lanky.

00:07:24.660 So, get yourself into your thin and lanky.

00:07:28.620 Thin and lanky.

00:07:30.400 All right.

00:07:31.340 Now, you're stretched.

00:07:32.480 You've got your thin and lanky on.

00:07:33.900 Now, the last part is important.

00:07:35.260 Imagine that you're a marionette,

00:07:38.200 sort of like Pinocchio,

00:07:40.040 and you've got a string attached to your knees

00:07:42.360 and also to your arms.

00:07:45.320 And so, when you walk,

00:07:46.880 you want the string to be picking up your...

00:07:49.260 So, let's see.

00:07:52.500 The Biden walk.

00:07:54.580 Just imagine that you've got marionette strings.

00:07:56.720 And it goes like this.

00:08:05.920 Oh, oh, I didn't stretch enough.

00:08:08.960 Didn't stretch enough.

00:08:13.600 Okay, I'm okay now.

00:08:18.060 So, there's a name for that walk.

00:08:23.360 In the medical literature,

00:08:28.600 I think there are at least two different names for it

00:08:30.560 in the medical literature.

00:08:33.000 One of them is Inspires Confidence.

00:08:37.160 That's actually the medical name for it.

00:08:38.900 Inspires Confidence.

00:08:41.120 And Leadership.

00:08:43.800 Leadership.

00:08:46.500 All right.

00:08:46.940 So, here's a mystery,

00:08:51.100 which is probably because of the fog of war.

00:08:53.840 And the mystery has to do with Ukraine

00:08:55.520 and the Soviet...

00:08:58.280 Soviet.

00:08:59.780 Whoops.

00:09:01.240 Not Soviet. 0.95

00:09:02.840 The Russian invasion of Ukraine.

00:09:07.720 And how is it that there could be

00:09:09.580 a 40-mile-long convoy

00:09:12.700 of heavy military equipment and troops

00:09:15.540 40 miles long

00:09:17.420 on an unprotected highway

00:09:20.480 heading straight for Kiev?

00:09:25.220 How do you explain that?

00:09:27.020 Somebody says four miles,

00:09:28.360 but I did read 40.

00:09:30.200 I did read 40.

00:09:31.820 I'm sure of it.

00:09:34.700 Well, let me propose

00:09:37.260 two possibilities.

00:09:39.260 Number one,

00:09:42.100 Russia already has 0.93

00:09:43.280 complete air superiority

00:09:44.840 or almost complete.

00:09:47.500 You'd need that, right?

00:09:48.680 Otherwise, you would see

00:09:49.480 lots of attacks already

00:09:50.620 on the convoy.

00:09:51.780 Or at least they try to blow up

00:09:53.220 the front of the convoy.

00:09:55.760 At least slow them down, right?

00:09:56.980 But you're not even seeing

00:09:58.060 attacks on the front.

00:10:00.400 It's as if no attack is happening.

00:10:03.660 Now, how do you explain that?

00:10:06.180 Like I said,

00:10:06.780 the number one explanation

00:10:08.940 would be Russia already 0.84

00:10:10.040 has complete air superiority.

00:10:12.260 The convoy itself

00:10:13.340 has anti-aircraft capabilities.

00:10:17.180 They probably have

00:10:18.020 an umbrella of their own aircraft.

00:10:20.560 They've got radar.

00:10:21.860 They've got electronic jamming

00:10:23.220 for drones.

00:10:24.420 They probably have

00:10:25.200 everything you could possibly have

00:10:27.160 for defending itself.

00:10:29.760 And maybe that's all they needed.

00:10:32.820 And they can just go in

00:10:33.760 with impunity.

00:10:34.380 Because wherever you've seen

00:10:36.120 the losses,

00:10:37.760 wherever the Ukrainians

00:10:39.020 got some advantage,

00:10:40.600 they were usually

00:10:41.440 lightly, lightly armed, right?

00:10:44.240 They were up against

00:10:45.220 sort of sitting duck,

00:10:48.300 weak kind of forces,

00:10:50.660 low-end tanks.

00:10:52.340 So the Ukrainians got, 0.88

00:10:53.480 the Ukrainians' resistance

00:10:55.000 got, you know,

00:10:56.840 all kinds of, we think,

00:10:58.920 good results against

00:10:59.920 weak elements of the Russian army.

00:11:01.820 But if they pull it all together,

00:11:04.020 can they just completely

00:11:04.940 control the air

00:11:05.780 around where they are anyway?

00:11:08.260 Maybe.

00:11:09.320 I mean, it seems

00:11:09.940 reasonably likely, right?

00:11:11.940 So that's one explanation.

00:11:14.400 The other explanation

00:11:15.740 is way more interesting.

00:11:17.980 And I'll put this

00:11:18.720 in the context of

00:11:19.860 it doesn't seem like

00:11:21.780 anything predictable

00:11:22.640 ever happens anymore,

00:11:23.780 does it?

00:11:26.000 Well, let me say that again.

00:11:27.420 It doesn't seem as if

00:11:29.660 anything that's predictable

00:11:31.780 actually ever happens anymore.

00:11:33.900 It's like whatever

00:11:34.500 you can't predict

00:11:35.380 is the thing that happens.

00:11:37.420 So what would be a thing

00:11:38.600 that would be

00:11:40.320 not predictable,

00:11:42.700 yet consistent

00:11:44.680 with everything

00:11:46.220 we've seen up to now?

00:11:47.560 See, that's the trick.

00:11:48.960 Come up with something

00:11:49.940 that's not predictable,

00:11:51.600 but would also be

00:11:52.900 completely consistent

00:11:54.080 with everything we know

00:11:55.300 about the situation so far.

00:11:57.420 And it goes like this.

00:12:00.540 It's a trap.

00:12:02.460 And it's not just

00:12:03.620 a little trap.

00:12:05.220 It's a decapitation strike 0.58

00:12:07.040 against Putin.

00:12:09.780 And I think

00:12:10.780 that if you think

00:12:13.020 that Zelensky

00:12:13.860 is performing

00:12:16.760 better than you thought,

00:12:18.780 were you surprised?

00:12:20.600 And why were you surprised?

00:12:23.000 Because he did make it

00:12:24.220 to the, you know,

00:12:25.160 he made it to the presidency.

00:12:26.260 So you don't make it

00:12:27.580 to the presidency

00:12:28.180 without some skill, right?

00:12:30.100 Some intelligence.

00:12:31.800 But then you say to yourself,

00:12:32.900 well, but really

00:12:33.520 he's a humorist

00:12:35.220 and an entertainer.

00:12:36.680 And maybe that was

00:12:37.640 the only skill

00:12:38.240 that got him elected.

00:12:39.300 Maybe he doesn't

00:12:40.100 have any depth.

00:12:42.280 But did you know

00:12:44.280 it's not really easy

00:12:45.300 to succeed in entertainment?

00:12:47.300 I don't know

00:12:48.440 if anybody ever

00:12:49.040 told you that,

00:12:49.700 but if you look

00:12:52.200 at my profession,

00:12:53.080 for example,

00:12:54.380 there are a lot of people

00:12:55.060 who are cartoonists

00:12:56.020 who, if a cartoonist

00:12:58.100 speaks out

00:12:58.620 on any topic

00:12:59.640 that's not cartooning,

00:13:01.860 the public immediately

00:13:03.240 says,

00:13:03.820 well, cartoonist, right?

00:13:06.580 I mean, you've seen it

00:13:07.240 with me a million times.

00:13:08.560 But how many

00:13:10.260 of my cartoonist friends

00:13:11.480 have advanced degrees,

00:13:13.680 for example?

00:13:14.120 Some of the top cartoonists

00:13:16.300 are literally trained

00:13:18.660 in physics.

00:13:21.560 Some have law degrees

00:13:23.600 from top schools.

00:13:25.920 Some of them are,

00:13:27.200 you know,

00:13:27.600 Ivy League graduates,

00:13:29.280 et cetera.

00:13:30.500 I've got advanced degrees.

00:13:33.400 So it's actually

00:13:34.820 fairly common

00:13:35.680 for people in the

00:13:36.920 entertainment industry

00:13:38.140 to also be smart.

00:13:40.160 Not all of them.

00:13:41.640 I'm not saying

00:13:42.160 that cartoonists

00:13:42.920 are smarter than the average

00:13:43.980 or anything like that.

00:13:45.200 I'm just saying

00:13:45.900 that it's not unusual

00:13:47.120 for somebody to be

00:13:48.040 in the entertainment field

00:13:49.040 and also be bright.

00:13:51.140 It can happen.

00:13:52.460 I mean, it can happen.

00:13:53.820 But the bias

00:13:54.720 about anybody

00:13:56.080 in entertainment

00:13:56.720 is that they can't

00:13:58.160 go too deep.

00:13:59.520 Now, do a fact check

00:14:00.740 on me.

00:14:01.920 Wasn't Zelensky's father

00:14:03.820 a military guy?

00:14:06.080 Was he a general?

00:14:07.420 I may have that part wrong.

00:14:09.960 But his father

00:14:10.540 was a military guy, right?

00:14:11.840 And somebody

00:14:16.900 will confirm that

00:14:17.600 in a moment,

00:14:18.060 but I think he was.

00:14:19.980 Or a grandfather?

00:14:22.320 Somebody's saying colonel.

00:14:23.700 Anyway, he has

00:14:24.280 some military genes

00:14:27.080 and influence.

00:14:28.820 Now, were you surprised

00:14:30.980 that he's done

00:14:32.020 as well as he's done

00:14:33.080 so far?

00:14:34.600 Probably yes, right?

00:14:36.180 So in terms of the marks

00:14:38.160 he's getting from the world

00:14:39.460 in handling the attack,

00:14:42.400 he's getting pretty high marks.

00:14:49.020 All right.

00:14:50.340 So here's what could be happening.

00:14:54.580 And I'm going to do

00:14:55.560 some speculating here

00:14:56.600 and then people who know

00:14:57.540 what they're talking about

00:14:58.400 will correct me, okay?

00:14:59.380 What would be the easiest way

00:15:01.620 to attack a bunch of troops?

00:15:04.600 Like a full army,

00:15:06.500 an invasion army,

00:15:07.580 where would you have

00:15:09.380 the best advantage

00:15:10.380 for attacking them?

00:15:12.160 Well, it depends on

00:15:13.160 what weapons you have, right?

00:15:15.080 If you have lots of weapons,

00:15:17.080 maybe the best way

00:15:18.020 to attack them

00:15:18.700 is when they're in convoy form.

00:15:20.760 They're lined up.

00:15:22.160 In theory,

00:15:23.340 and I was hearing from people

00:15:25.000 who know more than I do

00:15:25.940 yesterday,

00:15:26.980 about how you would

00:15:27.800 attack a convoy.

00:15:29.640 Some people said

00:15:30.560 you attack the front

00:15:32.540 and that gets you

00:15:35.920 pretty much what you want

00:15:37.180 because it's hard

00:15:37.720 for them to back up.

00:15:39.180 Some people said

00:15:40.120 you attack the front

00:15:40.960 and the back

00:15:41.780 and then trap them

00:15:43.440 and then pick them off.

00:15:44.860 But that only works

00:15:46.160 if you have

00:15:47.460 really good weapons

00:15:48.980 on the other side.

00:15:51.780 If you're attacking

00:15:53.580 a big convoy

00:15:54.660 with not enough people

00:15:56.720 and weapons,

00:15:57.900 the convoy can still be you

00:15:59.440 because it's still bigger

00:16:00.260 than you are, right?

00:16:01.640 So the strategy you use

00:16:04.600 depends on what weapons

00:16:05.640 you have

00:16:06.100 and how big you are

00:16:08.200 and how capable

00:16:09.500 your military is

00:16:10.440 compared to the convoy.

00:16:11.940 Does that make sense?

00:16:13.180 So it's not like

00:16:13.920 there's one strategy.

00:16:15.740 There's a different strategy

00:16:17.200 depending on the terrain,

00:16:19.620 the strength of the convoy,

00:16:21.440 what they have there

00:16:22.320 compared to you,

00:16:23.320 the distance they're going

00:16:24.140 to travel,

00:16:24.780 you know,

00:16:24.960 all those variables.

00:16:27.860 The smartest person

00:16:29.280 who answered the question

00:16:30.380 based on the fact

00:16:31.920 that it sounded right to me.

00:16:33.760 That's the only way

00:16:34.540 I'd judge it.

00:16:35.580 The smartest person said

00:16:36.840 you just take out

00:16:38.220 the fuel trucks.

00:16:41.520 That's it.

00:16:42.840 You just take out

00:16:43.560 the fuel trucks

00:16:44.280 and let them run.

00:16:46.120 And if you see

00:16:46.720 another fuel truck coming,

00:16:47.880 you take that one out.

00:16:49.520 Because if you take out

00:16:50.580 their fuel,

00:16:51.960 how long can a tank

00:16:54.460 go without fuel?

00:16:55.380 So if the distance

00:16:57.700 is long enough,

00:16:58.540 you just have to

00:16:59.040 take out their supply line

00:17:00.160 and just let them

00:17:01.340 bleed themselves

00:17:02.000 and then you attack

00:17:02.940 when they're out of fuel.

00:17:05.220 Now, again,

00:17:06.240 there are a million variables,

00:17:07.520 so there's no one

00:17:08.420 right answer.

00:17:09.800 But here's what I think.

00:17:12.620 If you have

00:17:13.640 limited size military

00:17:15.640 compared to your opponents,

00:17:19.260 and that's the case, right?

00:17:20.660 The Ukrainian resistance

00:17:21.760 is smallish

00:17:22.600 compared to the Russians.

00:17:23.980 But you had access

00:17:27.120 to the most advanced weapons.

00:17:31.040 Do you think Ukraine

00:17:32.080 has access to,

00:17:33.740 as of today,

00:17:35.960 the most advanced

00:17:37.080 normal weapons?

00:17:38.640 Obviously not nukes

00:17:39.840 or weapons of mass destruction.

00:17:41.540 But do you think

00:17:42.100 they have the most

00:17:42.800 advanced traditional weapons?

00:17:47.440 Probably.

00:17:48.700 Probably some NATO country

00:17:50.300 has said,

00:17:51.360 you know,

00:17:51.660 we wouldn't normally

00:17:53.040 sell you this stuff,

00:17:54.680 but we'll sell it

00:17:55.680 to you today.

00:17:59.020 So we don't know this.

00:18:00.760 And if you think

00:18:01.920 that we wouldn't provide

00:18:02.940 the weaponry

00:18:03.980 for lots of good reasons,

00:18:06.220 you might be right.

00:18:07.520 But let's just take this,

00:18:08.940 let's just game this out.

00:18:11.660 There is a kind of munitions,

00:18:14.040 and people who know

00:18:14.800 more than I do

00:18:15.500 can now fill in some blanks.

00:18:17.600 There is a kind of missile,

00:18:18.740 I believe,

00:18:20.200 I think it's a missile,

00:18:21.680 that you can shoo over

00:18:22.680 a battlefield

00:18:23.220 that's full of tanks.

00:18:25.260 So let's say the enemy

00:18:26.180 has amassed

00:18:26.960 a cluster of tanks.

00:18:29.140 There is one kind of missile

00:18:30.500 that can separate

00:18:33.480 above the tanks

00:18:34.640 into lots of different

00:18:36.620 kinetic elements

00:18:39.160 and just destroy 0.69

00:18:41.020 the entire battlefield

00:18:42.060 full of tanks

00:18:43.020 all at once

00:18:43.780 with one missile.

00:18:44.600 Now, would that be

00:18:46.780 as effective

00:18:47.540 on a convoy?

00:18:50.740 Well, it would do

00:18:51.540 a lot of damage

00:18:52.160 to a convoy,

00:18:53.500 but the convoy

00:18:54.220 is too spread out.

00:18:56.280 My assumption is

00:18:57.560 that they're going

00:18:58.240 to mass their forces

00:18:59.520 around Kiev.

00:19:01.840 So is it true

00:19:03.140 that at some point

00:19:03.980 the tanks will be clustered

00:19:05.440 or clustered-ish?

00:19:09.840 Maybe.

00:19:11.200 So it could be

00:19:12.160 that all that's happening

00:19:13.700 right now

00:19:14.200 is that Ukraine

00:19:16.000 is cleverly letting

00:19:17.240 their entire army in

00:19:18.540 until they cluster.

00:19:21.520 And then they just

00:19:22.280 take them all out

00:19:22.960 at once.

00:19:25.740 Now, question number one.

00:19:28.340 If the United States

00:19:29.520 was fighting this war

00:19:31.920 with our own military

00:19:32.880 and our own weapons,

00:19:34.420 would the United States

00:19:35.880 have weapons

00:19:37.180 that could take out

00:19:38.640 an entire battlefield

00:19:39.640 with the right kind

00:19:41.220 of missiles?

00:19:42.140 Yes or no?

00:19:42.800 Would the United States

00:19:44.460 have that weaponry

00:19:45.340 just for ourselves?

00:19:50.060 I'm seeing lots

00:19:50.980 of yeses, right?

00:19:52.400 Now, if you go to YouTube,

00:19:53.540 you can actually see

00:19:54.200 a demonstration

00:19:54.680 of the actual weapon.

00:19:56.420 I'm not inventing this.

00:19:59.580 I didn't make this up.

00:20:01.380 That's an actual missile,

00:20:03.140 right?

00:20:04.840 And there's a name for it.

00:20:06.740 Somebody will tell me

00:20:08.860 the name for it.

00:20:09.340 But basically,

00:20:10.200 it's one missile

00:20:10.820 that breaks into

00:20:11.660 a bunch of little missiles

00:20:13.100 that just spread havoc

00:20:15.260 and destroy tanks

00:20:16.400 for, you know,

00:20:17.640 a very large perimeter.

00:20:19.860 Now,

00:20:20.900 let's take it all the way.

00:20:22.500 If you thought

00:20:23.300 that Zelensky

00:20:24.880 was fighting

00:20:26.380 to not lose,

00:20:28.600 you should be ashamed

00:20:30.180 of yourself.

00:20:30.660 because has Zelensky

00:20:33.580 demonstrated

00:20:34.420 that he would fight

00:20:36.600 to not lose?

00:20:39.040 I don't think he has.

00:20:41.000 I think he's demonstrated

00:20:42.260 he fights to win.

00:20:44.000 And winning,

00:20:44.740 in this case,

00:20:45.280 is taking Putin out.

00:20:46.920 Winning is not surviving.

00:20:49.320 Winning is not surviving.

00:20:51.140 Winning is taking Putin out.

00:20:52.260 If,

00:20:54.840 if,

00:20:55.420 and this is a gigantic if,

00:20:57.840 because the most likely thing

00:20:59.540 is that Russia's army

00:21:00.600 is superior

00:21:01.500 and it's going to do

00:21:02.280 whatever it wants.

00:21:03.340 That's the most likely possibility.

00:21:05.720 But since we live

00:21:06.680 in an unlikely world,

00:21:08.000 I'm just going to put this out here.

00:21:09.860 If NATO has provided

00:21:11.500 certain types of weapons

00:21:12.800 to Ukraine,

00:21:15.260 those weapons

00:21:16.280 could largely destroy

00:21:18.020 the biggest part

00:21:19.860 of the Russian invasion army

00:21:21.260 in 48 hours.

00:21:25.040 And then what happens

00:21:26.240 to Putin?

00:21:28.940 Because at that point,

00:21:30.000 the Russian public says,

00:21:31.080 wait a minute,

00:21:31.960 you not only started a war,

00:21:33.440 but you lost it?

00:21:35.840 That's what it looked like.

00:21:37.280 You not only started a war,

00:21:39.180 because remember,

00:21:40.260 Putin is playing,

00:21:41.120 I think,

00:21:42.560 I think he's,

00:21:43.400 it's a life and death

00:21:44.440 game for him.

00:21:45.200 I think Putin knows

00:21:47.120 that if he loses the war,

00:21:48.820 which I imagine he thought

00:21:49.900 would be unthinkable,

00:21:51.260 if he loses,

00:21:52.840 I don't know if he can hold power.

00:21:56.140 You know,

00:21:56.560 I think some internal coup

00:21:58.660 would probably take him out

00:21:59.700 at that point.

00:22:01.240 So,

00:22:01.860 do not rule out

00:22:04.060 the possibility

00:22:04.800 that Zelensky

00:22:06.440 is playing the same game

00:22:08.240 Putin is,

00:22:08.940 which is a decapitation strike.

00:22:10.920 But the way Zelensky would do it

00:22:12.980 is surprisingly,

00:22:15.240 with unusually good weapons,

00:22:18.660 take out the entire

00:22:19.600 Russian invasion force

00:22:20.960 in 48 hours.

00:22:22.700 And that might happen this week.

00:22:26.360 Now,

00:22:26.760 again,

00:22:28.260 again,

00:22:29.800 it's not the most likely.

00:22:33.380 If we were just to game it out

00:22:34.940 based on common sense

00:22:36.080 and,

00:22:36.360 you know,

00:22:37.080 ordinary military assumptions,

00:22:38.960 you would just say,

00:22:39.640 well,

00:22:40.020 the gigantic army

00:22:41.600 is going to beat

00:22:42.140 the smaller army,

00:22:43.360 at least in Kiev.

00:22:45.160 I mean,

00:22:45.540 if the only thing

00:22:46.840 they're trying to do

00:22:47.460 is take over the capital,

00:22:49.460 you would bet on Russia 0.98

00:22:50.660 in the long run.

00:22:52.620 I mean,

00:22:52.880 they might level it

00:22:53.700 to do it,

00:22:54.320 but you'd bet on them.

00:22:56.360 Right?

00:22:56.540 And somebody's saying,

00:23:02.800 could we do

00:23:03.300 any of those things

00:23:03.960 without air superiority?

00:23:05.880 I would think

00:23:06.540 that those missiles

00:23:07.440 that destroy

00:23:08.240 all the tanks

00:23:09.020 in the zone,

00:23:11.120 probably,

00:23:12.480 if you shot enough of them,

00:23:14.740 it's going to get past

00:23:15.980 any air defense.

00:23:20.000 I would think.

00:23:21.660 All right,

00:23:21.980 so that's the biggest question to me.

00:23:23.640 At the very least,

00:23:25.220 our,

00:23:25.400 I guess the alternative

00:23:27.280 to that is that

00:23:28.400 the reporting

00:23:29.600 is all wrong

00:23:30.400 or at a date.

00:23:33.340 If,

00:23:34.060 wake up people,

00:23:35.820 Russia is defending itself,

00:23:37.560 says Chuck Haney.

00:23:40.900 Wake up people,

00:23:42.100 Russia is defending itself.

00:23:44.620 Okay,

00:23:44.960 that's what's happening.

00:23:46.660 Chuck.

00:23:48.380 All right.

00:23:51.980 Consider the success

00:23:53.160 of the colonies

00:23:53.840 against the British.

00:23:54.800 Yeah,

00:23:55.000 I mean,

00:23:55.400 every analogy fails

00:23:57.160 because that would be

00:23:58.120 the last war,

00:23:58.960 right?

00:23:59.640 We don't know

00:24:00.340 what's going to happen

00:24:00.880 in the next one

00:24:01.700 or even this one.

00:24:07.180 You know,

00:24:07.780 I keep thinking

00:24:08.400 that Putin

00:24:09.740 will someday

00:24:10.360 be called

00:24:10.820 the dumbass

00:24:13.120 of the Donbass.

00:24:14.560 I just feel like

00:24:15.380 somebody is going to be

00:24:16.120 called the dumbass

00:24:16.920 of the Donbass.

00:24:18.420 It doesn't quite make sense,

00:24:19.660 but I like how it sounds.

00:24:21.200 Well,

00:24:22.340 the financial restrictions

00:24:25.380 are in place

00:24:26.320 and Russia

00:24:27.600 is going to have

00:24:28.080 a tough time.

00:24:29.640 JP Morgan

00:24:30.200 thinks that their economy,

00:24:31.680 Russian economy,

00:24:32.360 might contract

00:24:33.000 20%

00:24:33.780 quarter over quarter.

00:24:34.840 But they also say

00:24:37.560 there's gigantic

00:24:38.380 variability.

00:24:39.660 It's not predictable.

00:24:42.100 So how would you like

00:24:43.260 to be a Russian citizen

00:24:44.380 who has been

00:24:45.680 completely cut off

00:24:46.740 from the news,

00:24:47.720 or at least

00:24:48.120 accurate news,

00:24:49.340 maybe just like us.

00:24:50.600 We don't know.

00:24:51.840 We don't know

00:24:52.480 if it's worse,

00:24:53.160 frankly.

00:24:55.960 And suddenly

00:24:56.780 your economy

00:24:57.500 is tanking,

00:24:58.660 and you do notice

00:24:59.480 that,

00:25:00.060 and you can't get

00:25:01.320 cash from your bank,

00:25:02.260 and you do notice

00:25:03.000 that.

00:25:04.520 Are you going to

00:25:05.360 start asking

00:25:06.000 some questions?

00:25:08.060 Will the Russian 0.99

00:25:09.220 public rapidly

00:25:10.720 educate itself?

00:25:12.700 Because they have

00:25:13.600 access, right?

00:25:14.720 They have access

00:25:15.340 to the internet.

00:25:16.240 Not everything

00:25:16.800 is banned.

00:25:19.140 So will the Russian 1.00

00:25:20.560 public figure out

00:25:21.420 what's going on here

00:25:22.220 like really quickly?

00:25:24.600 Because the only way

00:25:25.780 we can talk to the

00:25:26.840 public in Russia

00:25:27.640 is through the economy,

00:25:28.800 isn't it?

00:25:29.540 I feel like we found

00:25:30.820 a way to communicate

00:25:31.720 with the Russian

00:25:32.960 public through

00:25:34.720 interest rates

00:25:35.460 and inflation.

00:25:37.480 It's like,

00:25:37.860 hey,

00:25:38.880 read the inflation.

00:25:40.280 We're sending you

00:25:41.020 a little message here.

00:25:42.180 Hey,

00:25:42.520 why does my vodka

00:25:43.980 cost so much

00:25:44.700 this week?

00:25:45.780 Hmm?

00:25:46.160 Well,

00:25:46.600 maybe somebody's

00:25:47.320 sending you a message

00:25:48.140 because you can't

00:25:48.980 get it the normal way.

00:25:50.500 I also wonder,

00:25:52.680 in a world in which

00:25:53.880 everybody can communicate,

00:25:56.600 I'm not wrong

00:25:58.200 that I can pick up

00:25:59.020 a phone and call

00:25:59.840 anybody in Russia

00:26:00.760 that I want to,

00:26:01.440 right?

00:26:03.260 I'm not wrong

00:26:04.040 about that,

00:26:04.680 am I?

00:26:05.500 Don't phones

00:26:06.700 connect to Russia?

00:26:10.780 And it makes me wonder,

00:26:12.000 at what point

00:26:12.700 could people

00:26:14.360 in the United States

00:26:15.340 or Ukraine

00:26:16.580 or any place else

00:26:17.380 just start calling

00:26:18.940 Russian citizens?

00:26:20.980 You know,

00:26:21.180 I guess we can't

00:26:21.880 speak the language

00:26:22.480 so it would be

00:26:22.880 a problem.

00:26:23.740 But,

00:26:24.520 you know,

00:26:24.800 isn't the information

00:26:26.540 getting through

00:26:27.120 just by family members

00:26:28.760 who live in other countries?

00:26:29.940 I feel like

00:26:31.320 the information

00:26:31.880 would be getting

00:26:32.400 through by now.

00:26:33.920 And,

00:26:34.220 you know,

00:26:34.640 they wouldn't have

00:26:35.100 enough,

00:26:35.980 the Russian public

00:26:36.860 wouldn't care enough

00:26:37.980 until it starts

00:26:39.420 costing them money

00:26:40.400 and that started

00:26:41.580 today,

00:26:42.000 I guess.

00:26:44.060 Ish.

00:26:45.820 Shell Oil

00:26:46.540 is pulling out

00:26:47.200 of a Russia deal

00:26:47.940 with Gazprom.

00:26:49.800 Crypto is rising

00:26:50.900 because the Russians

00:26:51.800 are starting to put

00:26:52.700 money in crypto

00:26:53.360 to protect it.

00:26:54.480 their interest rates

00:26:57.060 are up.

00:26:58.240 So we don't know

00:26:59.180 how long we can

00:27:00.060 sustain this,

00:27:03.240 but

00:27:03.460 Putin really has

00:27:05.780 a timing problem

00:27:07.020 now,

00:27:07.340 doesn't he?

00:27:08.820 There is a theoretical

00:27:10.220 amount of time

00:27:11.340 that Ukraine 0.91

00:27:12.060 could hold out

00:27:13.720 that would end

00:27:15.800 Putin,

00:27:16.540 wouldn't it?

00:27:17.100 Because it would

00:27:17.640 just be too much

00:27:18.300 of a strain

00:27:18.760 on the Russian economy.

00:27:21.420 So it seems to me

00:27:22.520 that there's going

00:27:23.020 to be some Russian 0.62

00:27:23.800 leader who says,

00:27:24.880 look,

00:27:25.260 hey world,

00:27:26.140 if you'll take

00:27:26.780 the sanctions off,

00:27:28.660 we'll get rid of

00:27:29.420 Putin and we'll 0.59

00:27:31.300 get out of Ukraine. 0.99

00:27:32.920 There's probably,

00:27:34.080 I would bet you

00:27:34.940 there's some

00:27:35.580 oligarch

00:27:36.280 or Russian

00:27:37.840 military person

00:27:38.780 who's already

00:27:40.020 having conversations

00:27:41.000 with NATO

00:27:41.760 or the United States

00:27:42.900 saying,

00:27:44.260 hypothetically,

00:27:45.520 I'm just going

00:27:46.640 to float this idea.

00:27:48.800 If something

00:27:49.800 were to happen

00:27:50.560 to Putin,

00:27:52.200 say,

00:27:52.840 falling down

00:27:53.480 the stairs

00:27:53.980 and hypothetically,

00:27:57.360 my friend

00:27:58.800 Alex and I

00:28:01.560 became the new

00:28:02.940 heads of Russia,

00:28:04.500 just theoretically,

00:28:06.160 hypothetically,

00:28:07.220 just spitballing here, 0.76

00:28:08.820 would that work out

00:28:09.720 for you guys?

00:28:11.180 Would you drop

00:28:12.140 the sanctions?

00:28:13.420 I feel as if

00:28:14.380 somebody's going

00:28:15.020 to make that

00:28:15.440 conversation.

00:28:17.040 Because do you

00:28:18.460 think that Putin

00:28:19.080 is the only person

00:28:19.880 in Russia

00:28:20.240 who had ambitions

00:28:21.100 for power?

00:28:23.080 I doubt it.

00:28:24.560 There must be

00:28:25.140 a few people

00:28:25.660 over there

00:28:26.020 who want some

00:28:26.460 power.

00:28:27.920 All it would

00:28:28.560 take is one

00:28:29.220 of them

00:28:29.440 talking to

00:28:29.980 somebody

00:28:30.460 in the CIA

00:28:32.020 and saying,

00:28:33.440 look,

00:28:33.840 if you'll agree

00:28:34.760 to these things,

00:28:35.620 I'll agree

00:28:35.980 to take him out.

00:28:37.280 You've just

00:28:37.840 got to cover

00:28:38.320 my ass

00:28:38.940 once I take

00:28:40.280 him out

00:28:40.600 because all

00:28:40.980 hell's going

00:28:41.360 to break this.

00:28:43.220 You know

00:28:43.840 that conversation

00:28:44.540 is happening.

00:28:45.420 It's got to be.

00:28:45.960 All right.

00:28:51.500 If Putin

00:28:52.320 were to

00:28:53.040 hold Ukraine,

00:28:56.180 you know,

00:28:56.440 conquer it

00:28:57.020 and hold it

00:28:57.600 in some

00:28:58.140 purely military

00:28:59.560 fashion,

00:29:00.740 how long

00:29:01.920 could he do

00:29:02.360 it?

00:29:04.000 So imagine

00:29:05.600 the Russian

00:29:06.160 economy being

00:29:07.660 on the ropes

00:29:08.420 and then

00:29:09.600 in addition

00:29:10.360 to that,

00:29:11.460 he got himself

00:29:12.420 into a second

00:29:13.140 Afghanistan.

00:29:13.820 Yeah?

00:29:16.840 See,

00:29:17.420 here's the

00:29:17.800 problem.

00:29:19.160 Putin is

00:29:19.820 thinking about

00:29:20.900 the birth

00:29:24.300 of the

00:29:24.680 Soviet Union.

00:29:26.700 Putin is

00:29:27.500 thinking about

00:29:28.140 the part

00:29:29.160 of Russian

00:29:29.600 history,

00:29:30.520 sounds like

00:29:31.540 it's a little

00:29:31.860 bit cyclical,

00:29:33.200 where they're

00:29:33.780 gaining land

00:29:34.760 and influence.

00:29:37.200 What he

00:29:37.720 should be

00:29:38.160 thinking about

00:29:38.900 is that

00:29:40.000 Ukraine

00:29:40.420 is his

00:29:41.220 Afghanistan.

00:29:43.820 I'm sure

00:29:44.360 it's

00:29:44.540 occurred to

00:29:45.160 him.

00:29:45.680 But in

00:29:46.260 the way,

00:29:46.600 Afghanistan,

00:29:47.980 some say,

00:29:49.500 was one of

00:29:50.480 the reasons

00:29:50.900 that the

00:29:51.820 Soviet Union

00:29:52.460 fell,

00:29:52.880 right?

00:29:53.240 Do I have

00:29:53.640 that wrong?

00:29:54.720 Don't the

00:29:55.360 historians say

00:29:56.120 that Afghanistan 0.79

00:29:56.960 was some

00:29:59.140 big part of

00:30:00.120 why the

00:30:00.420 Soviet Union

00:30:01.100 fell apart?

00:30:02.620 Can you

00:30:03.120 give me a

00:30:03.440 confirmation on

00:30:04.080 that?

00:30:05.020 I see people

00:30:05.580 saying yes.

00:30:06.520 All right.

00:30:07.320 So that's

00:30:08.960 the idea you

00:30:10.000 want to put

00:30:10.400 in Putin's

00:30:10.900 head.

00:30:11.160 You want

00:30:12.120 to put

00:30:12.380 in his

00:30:12.680 head that

00:30:13.880 this is

00:30:14.300 his

00:30:14.500 Afghanistan.

00:30:16.240 And if

00:30:17.000 the Western

00:30:17.460 press just

00:30:18.160 started reporting

00:30:18.880 that, you

00:30:20.500 can make it

00:30:21.100 clear that

00:30:21.700 winning would

00:30:22.220 be losing.

00:30:23.980 You know

00:30:24.540 what I mean?

00:30:25.580 The best

00:30:26.280 way for

00:30:26.660 Putin to

00:30:27.060 hold power

00:30:27.600 already is

00:30:29.760 to lose.

00:30:33.460 Is that

00:30:34.080 too far?

00:30:34.940 So let me

00:30:35.600 say that

00:30:35.920 again.

00:30:36.900 If you

00:30:37.500 were to

00:30:37.760 game it

00:30:38.160 out,

00:30:38.540 you're

00:30:38.760 Putin,

00:30:39.100 and you're

00:30:39.500 playing this

00:30:39.940 chess game,

00:30:41.160 and you're

00:30:41.680 starting from

00:30:42.240 today.

00:30:42.960 So the

00:30:43.400 history doesn't

00:30:44.080 exist.

00:30:44.560 You're

00:30:44.700 starting from

00:30:45.180 today.

00:30:46.600 What is

00:30:47.020 Putin's 0.59

00:30:47.400 best way

00:30:47.840 to hold

00:30:48.120 power?

00:30:49.060 If he

00:30:49.800 keeps

00:30:50.180 Ukraine

00:30:50.860 and wins

00:30:52.480 the war,

00:30:54.800 Ukraine

00:30:55.120 will bleed

00:30:55.860 him dry

00:30:56.480 and probably

00:30:57.340 end his

00:30:58.660 rule.

00:30:59.900 If he

00:31:00.720 loses,

00:31:01.080 he might

00:31:03.000 be able to

00:31:03.540 gracefully

00:31:04.140 lose,

00:31:05.540 keep a

00:31:06.460 couple of

00:31:06.860 provinces,

00:31:07.940 and claim

00:31:08.860 that something

00:31:09.420 good happened.

00:31:11.160 And maybe

00:31:11.620 hold power.

00:31:13.180 So I

00:31:13.560 think he's

00:31:13.960 already in

00:31:14.580 a position

00:31:15.020 where his

00:31:15.460 best play

00:31:15.960 is losing.

00:31:17.920 Because if

00:31:18.660 he wins,

00:31:19.160 he can't

00:31:19.520 hold it

00:31:20.040 without

00:31:20.800 bleeding

00:31:21.240 himself to

00:31:21.840 death and

00:31:22.320 turning it

00:31:23.780 into the

00:31:24.180 fall of the

00:31:24.640 Soviet Union

00:31:25.280 by analogy.

00:31:27.200 Well, here's

00:31:29.140 the weirdest

00:31:29.600 story.

00:31:32.800 How many of

00:31:33.680 you are

00:31:33.940 familiar with

00:31:34.680 Nick Fuentes?

00:31:35.440 I want to

00:31:38.220 see what

00:31:38.500 level of

00:31:39.240 awareness

00:31:39.920 his name

00:31:40.960 has.

00:31:43.280 Give me

00:31:43.820 not just

00:31:44.240 the yeses,

00:31:44.760 I want to

00:31:45.000 see the

00:31:45.260 noes.

00:31:45.760 How many

00:31:46.360 would say

00:31:46.720 no?

00:31:49.900 All right,

00:31:50.520 so it's a

00:31:51.000 mix of

00:31:51.600 yeses and

00:31:52.080 nos.

00:31:52.580 People who

00:31:53.160 are listening

00:31:53.540 to this

00:31:53.880 are probably

00:31:54.200 more keyed

00:31:54.780 into social

00:31:55.340 media and

00:31:55.780 stuff than

00:31:56.440 other people.

00:31:57.780 All right,

00:31:58.120 I'll just

00:31:58.440 tell you what

00:31:58.960 other people

00:31:59.460 say about

00:31:59.940 him,

00:32:00.240 which is

00:32:01.280 let's say

00:32:02.180 so this is

00:32:05.700 what the

00:32:06.020 press says

00:32:06.780 about him

00:32:07.140 and I

00:32:07.820 forget where

00:32:08.260 I read

00:32:08.520 this.

00:32:09.000 It might

00:32:09.100 have been

00:32:09.720 it was

00:32:10.920 either on

00:32:11.280 Fox or

00:32:11.740 CNN,

00:32:12.180 I forget

00:32:12.440 which one.

00:32:13.420 But they

00:32:14.620 say he

00:32:15.060 has been

00:32:15.500 labeled a

00:32:16.380 white

00:32:16.560 supremacist

00:32:17.300 by the

00:32:18.000 U.S.

00:32:18.320 Department

00:32:18.620 of Justice

00:32:19.160 and the

00:32:20.300 Anti-Defamation

00:32:21.060 League.

00:32:21.940 And he

00:32:22.420 has been

00:32:22.700 banned from

00:32:23.180 most major

00:32:23.640 social media

00:32:24.220 platforms for

00:32:25.400 his white

00:32:25.840 nationalist

00:32:26.380 rhetoric.

00:32:28.540 All right,

00:32:28.740 so the thing

00:32:29.200 you should know

00:32:29.620 about him

00:32:30.080 is that

00:32:31.780 that's his

00:32:34.420 reputation.

00:32:35.980 And he

00:32:36.400 organized this

00:32:37.520 gathering of

00:32:39.980 people on

00:32:40.980 the right,

00:32:41.400 I guess.

00:32:42.280 What was it

00:32:42.760 called?

00:32:43.200 Let's see,

00:32:44.800 America First

00:32:45.600 Political Action

00:32:46.500 Conference.

00:32:47.920 So Nick

00:32:48.320 Fuentes

00:32:48.640 organized that.

00:32:50.020 And he

00:32:50.320 actually got

00:32:50.920 representatives

00:32:51.820 Marjorie Taylor

00:32:52.680 Green and

00:32:54.540 Paul Gosar

00:32:55.400 to attend.

00:32:57.400 I think one

00:32:57.800 of them was

00:32:58.180 recorded.

00:33:00.080 And I'm

00:33:02.580 thinking,

00:33:02.980 and of

00:33:03.220 course,

00:33:03.980 you know,

00:33:04.200 the usual

00:33:06.300 elm cry 0.95

00:33:07.600 that you

00:33:08.220 would expect.

00:33:09.460 And I'm

00:33:11.220 wondering,

00:33:12.620 what exactly

00:33:15.160 were they

00:33:15.560 thinking?

00:33:17.780 What exactly

00:33:19.040 is going on

00:33:19.720 here?

00:33:19.920 I don't

00:33:21.480 even have

00:33:22.260 a commentary

00:33:24.040 about it.

00:33:24.760 my commentary

00:33:26.200 is,

00:33:27.140 what?

00:33:29.100 Is it

00:33:29.960 fake news?

00:33:31.860 Somebody

00:33:32.180 says they

00:33:32.620 weren't.

00:33:39.760 Chuck,

00:33:40.940 you believe

00:33:43.840 that I've got

00:33:46.840 most of my

00:33:47.620 comments are

00:33:48.140 for one

00:33:48.580 troll.

00:33:48.880 Oh,

00:33:51.400 yes,

00:33:51.980 and right,

00:33:52.960 and Fuentes

00:33:53.560 was,

00:33:54.880 last week he

00:33:56.000 wrote on the

00:33:56.700 messaging app

00:33:57.460 Telegram,

00:33:58.780 this is a

00:33:59.360 quote from

00:33:59.760 Nick Fuentes,

00:34:00.660 I am totally

00:34:01.300 rooting for

00:34:01.900 Russia,

00:34:03.020 while also

00:34:03.600 referring to

00:34:04.180 Putin as,

00:34:04.860 quote,

00:34:04.940 my czar.

00:34:06.260 Now,

00:34:08.100 I don't

00:34:11.920 know,

00:34:12.340 I don't

00:34:12.680 even know

00:34:12.920 what to

00:34:13.120 say about

00:34:13.460 this story.

00:34:15.940 Like,

00:34:16.540 this is one

00:34:17.080 of those

00:34:17.280 stories where

00:34:17.780 you just

00:34:18.060 read the

00:34:18.420 story and

00:34:18.920 you just

00:34:19.240 go,

00:34:19.860 I don't

00:34:20.360 know,

00:34:20.600 I don't

00:34:20.840 have anything

00:34:21.240 to add

00:34:21.580 to that.

00:34:22.860 That story

00:34:23.540 just sits

00:34:24.020 there like

00:34:24.480 just what

00:34:24.900 it is,

00:34:25.920 and you

00:34:26.460 just use

00:34:26.960 your own

00:34:27.260 opinion on

00:34:27.740 it.

00:34:29.720 I don't

00:34:30.440 even know

00:34:30.620 what to

00:34:30.820 say about

00:34:31.220 it.

00:34:32.960 What is

00:34:33.520 the simulation

00:34:34.140 telling us

00:34:34.840 with Ukraine?

00:34:35.660 Well,

00:34:36.020 the simulation

00:34:36.580 loves a

00:34:37.300 three-act

00:34:38.520 movie.

00:34:40.360 The siege

00:34:41.400 of Ukraine,

00:34:42.240 in theory,

00:34:42.960 should be

00:34:43.460 the third

00:34:43.940 act,

00:34:44.640 if we

00:34:46.120 haven't already

00:34:46.560 seen it.

00:34:47.020 And the

00:34:48.300 third act,

00:34:49.920 if it's

00:34:50.360 like a

00:34:50.660 movie,

00:34:51.400 which would

00:34:51.880 indicate that

00:34:52.660 the simulation

00:34:53.260 likes three-act

00:34:54.300 plays,

00:34:54.820 which I

00:34:55.140 think it

00:34:55.400 does,

00:34:56.960 then somehow

00:35:00.100 Ukraine would 0.96

00:35:01.280 survive the

00:35:02.460 siege by the

00:35:03.260 entire Russian 0.58

00:35:03.980 military.

00:35:04.940 And it

00:35:05.260 could be

00:35:05.580 because the

00:35:06.700 real story is

00:35:07.400 that there

00:35:07.700 might be some

00:35:08.220 weapons that

00:35:08.800 are already

00:35:09.160 there,

00:35:09.880 or some

00:35:10.640 weapons showing

00:35:11.280 up.

00:35:13.000 But I

00:35:15.800 have a

00:35:16.480 tough time

00:35:17.660 believing that

00:35:19.620 the Russian

00:35:20.080 army is

00:35:22.180 not going to

00:35:22.800 suffer some

00:35:23.500 insane

00:35:24.260 casualties,

00:35:25.720 no matter

00:35:26.400 what,

00:35:27.020 regardless of

00:35:27.580 what kind of

00:35:27.940 weapons there

00:35:28.360 are.

00:35:30.180 All right.

00:35:34.040 Has the

00:35:34.700 Biden

00:35:34.900 administration

00:35:35.440 done anything

00:35:35.940 to instill

00:35:36.500 confidence they

00:35:37.380 are capable of

00:35:38.140 winning?

00:35:39.260 Well,

00:35:39.700 we're not in

00:35:40.320 it.

00:35:41.320 The Biden

00:35:42.000 administration

00:35:42.620 can't win

00:35:43.240 this war.

00:35:43.820 We're not

00:35:44.140 in that war.

00:35:46.260 They can't

00:35:46.920 win the war

00:35:47.340 they're not

00:35:47.700 in.

00:35:51.460 All right.

00:35:53.900 Everybody's

00:35:54.300 in this war,

00:35:54.900 in a sense,

00:35:55.780 yes.

00:35:57.580 All right.

00:35:58.000 The State

00:35:59.360 of the Union

00:35:59.800 today,

00:36:01.080 I think they're

00:36:02.100 writing and

00:36:02.600 rewriting it.

00:36:05.720 I don't know

00:36:06.460 what they have

00:36:07.100 to talk about.

00:36:07.800 do you think

00:36:08.640 they're going

00:36:08.920 to go to

00:36:09.400 the Trump

00:36:12.800 as a racist

00:36:14.140 well?

00:36:15.780 Because I

00:36:16.320 feel like

00:36:16.620 that's all

00:36:16.960 he has

00:36:17.320 lately.

00:36:18.580 That's all

00:36:19.160 Biden has.

00:36:20.580 It's just

00:36:21.020 his old

00:36:21.500 talking points

00:36:22.780 that have

00:36:23.040 been discredited.

00:36:27.760 All right.

00:36:28.760 So,

00:36:29.300 there's nothing

00:36:29.740 going on

00:36:30.180 except Ukraine

00:36:30.860 and there's

00:36:31.340 no news

00:36:32.060 about Ukraine

00:36:32.680 that you can

00:36:33.120 trust,

00:36:33.560 so it's a

00:36:33.880 little hard

00:36:34.160 to talk

00:36:34.480 about the

00:36:34.820 news

00:36:35.180 like that.

00:36:36.960 Now,

00:36:38.240 a lot of

00:36:39.120 people are

00:36:39.440 saying,

00:36:39.880 why is it

00:36:40.280 that COVID

00:36:41.120 went away

00:36:41.820 at the same

00:36:43.460 time that this

00:36:44.160 war started?

00:36:44.980 Does it mean

00:36:45.540 that all of

00:36:46.240 our big

00:36:46.560 problems are

00:36:47.140 artificial?

00:36:48.180 And the

00:36:48.740 answer is

00:36:49.360 somewhat.

00:36:52.340 The way the

00:36:53.340 news covers

00:36:53.960 things is

00:36:54.540 certainly

00:36:54.880 artificial,

00:36:55.620 because it's

00:36:56.020 driven by the

00:36:56.800 business model

00:36:57.980 of the news,

00:36:58.620 it's not

00:36:59.060 driven by

00:36:59.540 events per

00:37:00.300 se.

00:37:01.740 So,

00:37:02.700 yeah,

00:37:04.020 it can look

00:37:04.980 like we

00:37:06.420 go from one

00:37:07.040 emergency to

00:37:07.840 another and

00:37:09.260 that they're

00:37:09.620 almost timed

00:37:10.280 or scheduled.

00:37:11.720 But it is

00:37:12.400 true that we

00:37:12.940 simply stopped

00:37:13.660 talking about

00:37:14.280 the last thing

00:37:15.080 because it was

00:37:15.620 boring and the

00:37:16.720 new thing was

00:37:17.220 more interesting

00:37:17.800 because finally

00:37:18.400 it was something

00:37:18.920 new and it

00:37:19.900 wasn't damn

00:37:20.500 masks.

00:37:21.660 And, you

00:37:22.200 know, I

00:37:22.460 certainly

00:37:22.800 understand

00:37:23.500 everybody who

00:37:25.160 is tired of

00:37:25.720 the topic.

00:37:26.140 I get it,

00:37:29.320 but it was

00:37:30.100 the topic,

00:37:30.740 so.

00:37:34.600 China is 0.85

00:37:35.420 sanction-proof?

00:37:37.160 They don't

00:37:37.800 have to be

00:37:38.260 sanction-proof to

00:37:39.100 keep them away

00:37:39.680 from Taiwan.

00:37:40.560 That was the

00:37:41.120 comment I was

00:37:41.700 just reading.

00:37:43.320 I think Taiwan 0.84

00:37:45.140 just might be

00:37:45.920 unconquerable

00:37:46.760 because of

00:37:48.800 being an

00:37:49.580 island and

00:37:50.700 modern

00:37:51.220 equipment.

00:37:53.600 But we'll

00:37:54.300 find out.

00:37:54.820 we may

00:37:56.180 find out.

00:37:59.880 All right,

00:38:00.380 that's all I

00:38:00.720 got for today

00:38:01.220 and I don't

00:38:01.700 want to

00:38:02.120 blabber on

00:38:03.860 as you know

00:38:04.320 I can.

00:38:05.320 Unless you

00:38:05.860 have any

00:38:06.220 cool questions

00:38:06.900 for me,

00:38:07.440 it's going

00:38:08.000 to be a

00:38:08.220 short one

00:38:08.500 today.

00:38:11.500 Explain why

00:38:12.140 we aren't

00:38:12.520 drilling.

00:38:13.820 Good question.

00:38:16.760 But it has

00:38:17.380 to do with

00:38:17.660 money and

00:38:18.220 politics and

00:38:18.960 that's all

00:38:19.280 it is.

00:38:20.400 So that's

00:38:21.060 all for now

00:38:21.440 and I will

00:38:21.960 talk to you

00:38:22.520 tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 01, 2022

Episode 1669 Scott Adams： The Endgame in Ukraine Might Not Go The Way You Think

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