Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1898 Scott Adams： Why Hasn't Elon Musk Ended Ukraine War In His Spare Time Yet？ Is He Lazy？

00:00:01.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to A Highlight of Civilization, Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:07.820 Today, you may have noticed, I'm wearing my Halloween costume.

00:00:12.460 I'll be going as a Zelensky. 0.97

00:00:15.640 It's the easiest costume you could ever do.

00:00:18.660 Yeah, it's just a t-shirt, but I think I'm killing it.

00:00:23.200 And if you'd like to take this experience up to stratospheric levels, and I know you do,

00:00:29.480 all you need is a cup or mug or a glass or take your chalice or stein, a canteen, jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:36.920 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:40.420 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine, the end of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:47.880 It's called the Simultaneous Sip. That's right.

00:00:51.040 And it happens now. Go.

00:00:52.740 Go.

00:00:52.800 I keep saying Jack Posobiec's name wrong.

00:01:10.620 Are you telling me?

00:01:11.400 I think some people just have to get used to the fact that people are going to say their name anyway.

00:01:20.880 I think if you have some kinds of names, you just have to get used to the fact people are going to do it any way they can.

00:01:28.340 So, do we need to talk about Madonna?

00:01:35.140 I feel like I was going to ignore the whole Madonna got some plastic surgery, didn't look so good story.

00:01:44.700 But, oh my God, there is something going on there that's not good.

00:01:49.540 And it's a perfect example of what happens when somebody has too much power.

00:01:56.700 First of all, she's clearly insane. 1.00

00:01:59.980 Would anybody doubt that?

00:02:02.520 She's exhibiting serious mental problems. 0.81

00:02:07.680 And obviously there's nobody who can say no to her.

00:02:11.140 I mean, even her surgeon can't say no to her.

00:02:13.080 How in the world does anybody intervene like your children probably have no power over?

00:02:20.460 This is going to get worse.

00:02:23.240 It's going to get worse.

00:02:24.720 And I have no idea what the problem is.

00:02:28.080 I mean, it's just, you know, massive mental problems.

00:02:32.760 But I wonder if the pandemic got her.

00:02:34.620 I don't know.

00:02:35.020 But there's more video of Joe Biden trying to sniff girls and get creepy with them.

00:02:41.760 I don't know if you've seen the latest.

00:02:43.280 But it's just as disturbing as you think it would be.

00:02:47.360 I don't know if it means anything, but it's creepy.

00:02:51.440 Here's my favorite story of the day.

00:02:54.880 Reportedly, CNN is going to release Jim Acosta.

00:02:58.660 So Jim Acosta will no longer be with CNN.

00:03:01.180 And also Jim Scuto, I guess he had some accident and some personal problems he's working through.

00:03:10.840 So he's working through some personal problems.

00:03:13.520 And Jim Acosta will be gone.

00:03:15.400 Now, here's the thing.

00:03:18.560 The reporting on the Jim Acosta leaving as well as the other changes of CNN.

00:03:24.800 Correct me if I'm wrong.

00:03:26.020 But CNN is telling us directly that they didn't used to be real news.

00:03:33.800 Am I wrong?

00:03:35.800 Am I interpreting too much in there?

00:03:39.120 Or would it be, is it fair to say?

00:03:42.480 Because I, obviously, I'm biased.

00:03:44.380 But it seems fair to say that they have now admitted they did not used to give you straight news.

00:03:52.040 Right?

00:03:53.140 So here's my question.

00:03:54.360 What do the people who are watching CNN admit that they were never real news, what do they think about all the opinions that they got from CNN?

00:04:06.480 Is there any realization that goes on there?

00:04:09.180 Do you think?

00:04:10.260 I don't think so.

00:04:11.980 You know what I think?

00:04:13.760 I think they say, what do you think they say?

00:04:16.000 Go ahead.

00:04:17.120 This will be your test to see if you can anticipate their cognitive dissonance.

00:04:21.080 What would CNN viewers say if you challenge them of the fact that it is now admitted and demonstrated that they were not watching real news?

00:04:31.520 Exactly.

00:04:35.840 They would say, well, it's not Fox News.

00:04:39.940 At least it's not as bad as Fox News, right?

00:04:42.260 That's what they would say.

00:04:43.540 That's where the cognitive dissonance would go.

00:04:47.420 Now, it's not my job to defend Fox News, but there's one thing that I always say that I think is worth saying.

00:04:52.560 Fox News does a better job of distinguishing between their opinion piece and their news piece.

00:05:01.780 I think I would stick by that statement.

00:05:04.940 I mean, if you see Hannity say something about Biden, don't you just put it in context?

00:05:12.540 It's Hannity. 0.51

00:05:13.940 It's Biden.

00:05:15.060 Hannity is going to say bad stuff about Biden.

00:05:17.020 The same as Acosta.

00:05:18.500 The problem was that Acosta was pretending to be news.

00:05:23.020 That's not cool.

00:05:24.720 That's not cool at all.

00:05:26.820 And I still don't know what Jake Tapper is supposed to be.

00:05:30.080 Does anybody know?

00:05:31.780 Is Jake Tapper news or opinion?

00:05:35.080 I actually don't know, and I've watched him for years.

00:05:38.160 What would you say?

00:05:39.620 Is he news or opinion?

00:05:42.720 Yeah, it's a little of both.

00:05:45.140 So, you can see why that model would be confusing.

00:05:48.500 So, I guess Chairman Xi, over there in China, opened up the CCP summit by announcing that they have full control of Hong Kong and Taiwan is next.

00:06:04.940 What?

00:06:07.980 What?

00:06:09.620 Taiwan is next.

00:06:10.940 Now, there's something strange going on with China, and it goes like this. 0.99

00:06:21.100 According to Peter Zeyan and some other reports, Biden's sanctions have completely destroyed the tech business in China.

00:06:31.320 Completely.

00:06:32.460 As in, the tech business in China is just going to have to shut down.

00:06:36.620 Because, you know, he did some sanctions with, I guess, some employees who are American over there.

00:06:43.300 They can't be over there and also be American or something. 0.95

00:06:47.500 But here's the thing.

00:06:48.640 Why is Peter Zeyan saying that the entire Chinese tech sector just got shut down, like actually just shut down, and it's not in the news?

00:07:01.100 What's going on?

00:07:03.460 Look for yourself.

00:07:05.720 How would that not be the biggest story in the world?

00:07:08.540 If that were true, it would be the biggest story in the world.

00:07:12.840 Would it not?

00:07:13.320 What would be a bigger story than that?

00:07:17.760 I can't think of anything.

00:07:19.440 Now, go check CNN and check Fox News.

00:07:23.260 This story doesn't exist.

00:07:25.540 It's not even a story.

00:07:28.500 So why is one person who I think is credible, I mean, I've been told he's credible,

00:07:34.460 why is one person saying the biggest thing in the world is happening right now,

00:07:38.000 and their biggest news sources are actually ignoring it?

00:07:43.320 Who is lying to us?

00:07:46.320 I can't tell.

00:07:47.540 Can you?

00:07:51.420 Peter Zeyan called third out.

00:07:54.520 He fell for a fake.

00:07:55.840 Okay, so we actually don't know what's going on here, right?

00:08:07.700 There's something gigantic happening with the news that we don't really have a grasp on at all.

00:08:16.280 Did you notice that the news is empty today, just sort of in general?

00:08:20.420 Well, there's no news today.

00:08:23.280 The entire news business just shut down like there's something big happening or coming.

00:08:29.220 Is everybody working on something new?

00:08:31.760 There's something...

00:08:33.060 I feel like there's some trouble brewing or something.

00:08:37.840 Is it just me?

00:08:40.620 Anyway.

00:08:41.120 If you were China, would you move on Taiwan now?

00:08:46.680 Well, if it's true that Biden just shut down your tech business,

00:08:52.680 aren't you going to have to go get some chip makers somewhere?

00:08:57.220 Did Biden just guarantee that China would have to conquer Taiwan to take care of the... 0.76

00:09:02.220 to capture their tech industry?

00:09:04.920 because they just lost their own tech industry thanks to Biden?

00:09:11.840 Right?

00:09:13.680 Well, what am I missing?

00:09:16.540 Because it feels like...

00:09:18.220 I mean, I don't know what China's options are.

00:09:20.380 I suppose they could try to get...

00:09:21.760 just get talent from other countries or something.

00:09:24.220 They could probably do that.

00:09:26.700 But isn't there incentive to take, you know,

00:09:29.940 control of a functioning tech center through the roof

00:09:34.520 because they can't really be a modern country without it?

00:09:37.960 It's almost a military requirement now to conquer Taiwan.

00:09:43.460 Now, I don't know anything about these, you know, military issues.

00:09:47.600 I'm just the person who's been right about everything.

00:09:51.660 Except...

00:09:52.380 except right...

00:09:53.220 I was definitely wrong about Russia invading Ukraine.

00:10:01.240 So, Saturday Night Live,

00:10:02.900 I didn't see it, but I read about it.

00:10:05.840 It sounded like they were really dunking on the Democrats

00:10:08.180 for the January 6th thing,

00:10:10.300 being a boring, useless waste of time.

00:10:13.920 Did anybody see Saturday Night Live?

00:10:16.560 And can you...

00:10:17.520 if you did, can you characterize it?

00:10:20.340 Were they unambiguously mocking the Democrats?

00:10:24.780 Or was it balanced?

00:10:26.920 Was it balanced?

00:10:27.820 It was negative.

00:10:30.880 No, I didn't...

00:10:32.760 I didn't watch it, so I'm asking you.

00:10:38.020 Yes, but without malice.

00:10:42.800 Okay.

00:10:43.640 Yeah, so they made fun of the January 6th thing

00:10:45.780 as just being bad theater, right?

00:10:48.900 Talk about theater.

00:10:50.020 So, Nancy Pelosi literally was being filmed for a documentary 0.64

00:10:56.080 while she ran around trying to look presidential

00:10:59.080 during January 6th.

00:11:01.240 Everything about January 6th looks like a fake...

00:11:05.780 Well, it doesn't look like.

00:11:07.040 It's completely fake.

00:11:07.980 The hearings are all just fake theater.

00:11:12.260 Our government is no longer serious,

00:11:14.820 if they ever were.

00:11:15.860 They're certainly not serious about doing the job of the people.

00:11:18.960 That much is clear.

00:11:21.620 All right, here's a story for you.

00:11:23.400 A horrible, horrible, tragic story.

00:11:27.160 There was a 17-year-old boy

00:11:29.340 in a new Miami high school,

00:11:32.080 and you will not believe the horrible thing

00:11:34.460 that happened to this young man.

00:11:36.160 And we'll probably take a moment of silence

00:11:41.060 after I read you this horrible, horrible, tragic story.

00:11:45.380 This victim, this victim...

00:11:48.160 Well, anyway, this poor 17-year-old boy

00:11:51.480 was victimized by a 31-year-old teacher's assistant

00:11:55.940 and softball coach who...

00:11:58.840 This is disgusting, but she had sex with him multiple times. 0.96

00:12:04.160 Multiple times.

00:12:06.160 That poor, poor boy.

00:12:08.880 Now, they don't...

00:12:10.020 He's underage, so...

00:12:11.060 They don't mention what kind of therapy

00:12:14.260 or medical treatment he's getting

00:12:15.780 to recover from his amazing sex.

00:12:19.120 But it can't be easy.

00:12:22.740 Can we take a moment of silence

00:12:24.200 for this poor child,

00:12:26.440 this poor 17-year-old boy who...

00:12:29.740 While this teacher's assistant and softball coach

00:12:33.220 was sucking his cock, 1.00

00:12:36.040 he was probably having one of the worst days of his life.

00:12:41.040 And I think that we need to

00:12:44.040 really take a moment of silence.

00:12:46.920 Okay, I think that's long enough.

00:12:54.380 That's good.

00:12:55.860 Thank you for that moment of silence.

00:12:58.940 All right, here's the real question.

00:13:01.660 Was the crime the crime,

00:13:05.620 or was the crime the way we treated the crime?

00:13:08.700 Which one was the crime?

00:13:11.920 Was the crime all the good sex they had together?

00:13:14.900 Because they did it a lot of times,

00:13:16.320 so therefore it couldn't have been bad.

00:13:18.720 Was the crime all the sex?

00:13:21.120 Or was the crime the fact that

00:13:22.840 their lives will be destroyed

00:13:25.020 because we're all fucking assholes? 0.97

00:13:28.600 Which is the crime?

00:13:30.700 Is it the crime that a technical violation occurred?

00:13:33.560 And of course, there was, you know...

00:13:35.880 I mean, usually these are about a power differential, right?

00:13:40.360 I mean, even though there's a...

00:13:41.740 You know, technically there's an underage boy here.

00:13:44.140 But usually it's about the power differential.

00:13:47.280 You tell me what the power differential is

00:13:49.740 of a 17-year-old boy

00:13:51.700 versus a teacher's assistant

00:13:53.680 who's a softball coach also.

00:13:56.460 Are you telling me the assistant, teacher, and softball coach

00:13:59.580 had power over the 17-year-old boy

00:14:02.060 who was probably a head taller than her?

00:14:04.540 No.

00:14:06.040 Not at all.

00:14:09.080 So, this is one where we really have to take a look at ourselves.

00:14:13.000 This is not a story about these two people.

00:14:15.660 This is a story about us sucking. 0.83

00:14:19.880 This is about everybody but the two people.

00:14:24.020 It looks like it's a story about these two people.

00:14:26.040 It's everybody but them.

00:14:27.780 They were the only two people

00:14:29.060 who should not be involved in this story.

00:14:30.860 We fucking suck.

00:14:34.380 We are assholes.

00:14:36.440 Like, just...

00:14:38.020 We are disgusting pieces of shit.

00:14:42.480 Just in case you wondered.

00:14:44.520 In case you wondered who you were.

00:14:47.080 I mean, I hate us.

00:14:49.220 I hate us because of this story.

00:14:50.900 I really do.

00:14:52.340 Now, if there was any real damage here,

00:14:54.200 then, you know, that's different.

00:14:55.360 But I don't think so.

00:14:57.060 I don't think so.

00:14:57.900 All right.

00:15:01.760 So, Elon Musk, I guess, got so much heat

00:15:05.360 for allegedly threatening to turn off Starlink in Ukraine.

00:15:11.100 He tweeted,

00:15:11.860 the hell with it. 0.55

00:15:12.920 Even though Starlink is still losing money

00:15:14.700 and other companies are getting billions of taxpayers' money,

00:15:18.120 we'll just keep funding Ukraine government for free.

00:15:20.740 It must be nice to be that rich.

00:15:25.440 I would love to be that rich

00:15:27.200 that you could say,

00:15:28.640 ah, $20 million a month.

00:15:30.860 Screw it.

00:15:31.580 I'll just pay the $20 million a month.

00:15:35.400 It's a tax write-off.

00:15:38.800 You can't be a follower of mine

00:15:41.840 and say stuff like that is a tax write-off.

00:15:44.480 You can't do that.

00:15:45.520 Don't make me stop and explain why.

00:15:51.320 All right.

00:15:52.380 It is a tax write-off.

00:15:54.240 But you don't make money by losing money.

00:15:59.380 So then I saw an exchange with Kim.com

00:16:01.980 and Elon Musk

00:16:03.260 where Kim.com was, you know,

00:16:05.900 encouraging Elon that everybody has to

00:16:08.040 try to make peace here.

00:16:10.560 And Elon said he's trying hard

00:16:13.280 but getting nowhere, apparently.

00:16:16.400 And let me ask you this.

00:16:18.460 How serious is it

00:16:19.900 when Elon Musk talks about

00:16:22.460 his own involvement

00:16:23.760 in trying to end the war?

00:16:26.120 I think it's pretty serious.

00:16:28.140 I think that he actually is

00:16:29.660 probably at least

00:16:32.300 20% of the equation.

00:16:35.820 Yeah, I think he would have

00:16:36.640 at least that much influence.

00:16:38.120 He can't do it alone.

00:16:39.080 But if things were, you know,

00:16:42.020 maybe teetering in one direction,

00:16:43.880 I think he could push it.

00:16:46.020 You know, I think if it was

00:16:46.820 on a balance point,

00:16:47.800 he could be the deciding vote.

00:16:49.960 You know, he does have the influence

00:16:51.320 to push things one way or another.

00:16:53.340 But let us game this out.

00:16:57.240 Number one,

00:16:59.120 I saw a

00:17:00.560 extended military explanation

00:17:03.720 of how Ukraine

00:17:05.520 made such a big gain

00:17:07.860 recently.

00:17:09.080 around Kyrgyzstan.

00:17:11.220 And,

00:17:11.760 was it around Kyrgyzstan?

00:17:13.560 No, but whatever big gain,

00:17:15.060 no, not around Kyrgyzstan.

00:17:17.120 It was about how they made

00:17:18.440 their recent big gains.

00:17:21.460 And it turns out

00:17:22.580 that it was a special case.

00:17:25.020 Did you know that?

00:17:25.820 So, the big gains that Ukraine made

00:17:30.080 were they made a big gamble

00:17:33.080 to do what's the name

00:17:36.020 of the military technique

00:17:37.160 where they go in fast

00:17:39.000 and they break through the lines.

00:17:42.300 They create as much chaos

00:17:43.540 and they find out how much defense there is

00:17:46.040 and then they retreat.

00:17:47.680 Thunder roll, yes.

00:17:49.060 It's called a thunder roll.

00:17:50.540 So, the thunder roll

00:17:52.680 is you take a small,

00:17:54.420 very fast unit

00:17:55.420 with some armor

00:17:56.280 and you blaze through the lines

00:17:59.760 and you get behind the lines

00:18:01.620 and you cause all confusion

00:18:03.180 and chaos

00:18:03.900 because then, you know,

00:18:05.340 it's hard for them to communicate

00:18:06.540 and, you know,

00:18:07.300 there's bullets

00:18:07.840 or at least there's people

00:18:10.100 on both sides of people.

00:18:11.640 So, it's supposed to sow confusion

00:18:14.400 and also find out

00:18:16.560 where you can attack best

00:18:18.740 and then they go in and attack.

00:18:21.020 Now, the requirement for that to work

00:18:24.480 is as follows.

00:18:26.660 You have to have a thin defensive line.

00:18:30.100 Thin defensive line.

00:18:31.540 Because otherwise,

00:18:32.380 the fast unit can't break through it

00:18:34.400 because they would reach, you know,

00:18:35.800 a level

00:18:36.280 and then there would be another level

00:18:37.580 and then there would be another level

00:18:38.760 and they couldn't do anything fast.

00:18:40.580 And the speed is what makes this work.

00:18:43.960 So, if you thought

00:18:46.440 that Ukraine's massive, unexpected victory,

00:18:50.720 you know, recently, a few weeks ago,

00:18:52.380 if you thought that was the beginning

00:18:53.940 of them rolling up the rest of those areas

00:18:56.400 and I wondered if that was true too,

00:18:59.560 it turns out they don't have

00:19:01.080 that special case anywhere else

00:19:02.700 because part of what made it work

00:19:05.860 is they faked Russia

00:19:07.600 into fortifying a different place.

00:19:10.580 But now they would have to attack

00:19:12.600 that different place

00:19:13.640 and that place does have defensive lines.

00:19:16.620 So, it doesn't mean that Ukraine won't succeed.

00:19:20.440 It does mean they can't do it the same way

00:19:22.740 and almost certainly not as fast.

00:19:26.960 Right?

00:19:27.140 So, now, I wouldn't say that this either

00:19:31.600 is the final word

00:19:33.240 and now we know everything that's going to happen, right?

00:19:35.760 But, it is true

00:19:38.060 that whatever we saw up to this point

00:19:40.560 does not tell you what happens next.

00:19:43.520 So, let's game this out.

00:19:47.500 When was the last time you heard

00:19:49.060 a report from the war?

00:19:51.960 I haven't heard one in a few days.

00:19:56.640 Nothing important, right?

00:19:59.020 Some stuff blows up.

00:20:00.480 But nothing important.

00:20:02.180 Like, no, it doesn't seem like

00:20:03.420 any territory has changed sides, right?

00:20:05.280 In a few days.

00:20:06.460 I don't know that it will.

00:20:09.160 I don't know that it will.

00:20:10.620 But they're going to keep fighting.

00:20:11.840 So, what happens if no territory is changing sides

00:20:16.660 and the fighting is continuing?

00:20:18.860 Well, Putin will continue to degrade things in Ukraine.

00:20:23.840 But let me ask you this.

00:20:26.580 Why is his degrading of things in Ukraine

00:20:30.700 sort of muted?

00:20:33.880 In other words,

00:20:34.900 it doesn't seem to be an all-day-long assault.

00:20:38.380 It seems like Putin launches some stuff

00:20:41.060 and, you know,

00:20:42.560 destroys some infrastructure.

00:20:44.360 But then they sort of, you know,

00:20:45.560 next day they do some more.

00:20:47.940 And the speculation is that Putin's out of ammo.

00:20:52.480 And that the reason there's not

00:20:53.680 a sustained attack on the infrastructure of Ukraine

00:20:56.320 is that he can't do it.

00:20:58.100 He doesn't have enough accurate missiles.

00:21:01.520 And it's the accurate stuff he needs.

00:21:05.300 Right?

00:21:07.700 Here's something I ask you.

00:21:11.060 Just if you wonder

00:21:12.600 how gullible you are to propaganda.

00:21:16.440 Here are two facts

00:21:17.840 that are reported in the war

00:21:19.320 and I never see anybody connect them.

00:21:22.280 And here are the two facts.

00:21:24.680 The Russians are targeting, 1.00

00:21:26.520 intentionally targeting,

00:21:28.240 civilian residential areas.

00:21:32.040 True?

00:21:33.040 True or false?

00:21:34.400 True or false?

00:21:35.220 The Russians are intentionally targeting residential areas. 0.96

00:21:40.600 Well, the news says that.

00:21:42.760 The news says they're intentionally targeting residential areas.

00:21:46.500 How could that not be true?

00:21:48.840 All right, here's the other thing that the news says.

00:21:51.600 The Russian missiles and artillery are not accurate.

00:21:55.180 True?

00:21:56.180 True?

00:21:57.060 True or false?

00:21:59.620 The Russians have some accurate stuff, 0.98

00:22:01.500 but most of it is the inaccurate stuff.

00:22:04.100 So the news is telling you two things.

00:22:06.540 They're intentionally targeting these residential areas,

00:22:11.060 and their weapons are super inaccurate.

00:22:16.960 Pick one, right?

00:22:20.580 Now, it could be that they're intentionally targeting residential areas.

00:22:25.200 I'm not poo-pooing that,

00:22:27.980 because there's some history of that.

00:22:29.940 You know, some say that is the Russian military doctrine.

00:22:34.680 But I think that's not the military doctrine you use

00:22:39.400 when you're attacking your own countrymen, is it?

00:22:43.640 I mean, it would be one thing to be attacking the Chechens 1.00

00:22:46.140 or somebody who doesn't look like you.

00:22:48.940 You know what I'm talking about?

00:22:50.980 But the Ukrainians and the Russians, 0.88

00:22:52.720 they look like each other.

00:22:54.280 I don't know.

00:22:55.360 I don't know if you want to destroy

00:22:57.740 all the residential areas in Ukraine

00:22:59.920 and then hope to live together in harmony.

00:23:02.720 Is that going to happen?

00:23:05.260 I don't know.

00:23:08.360 So here's what I think is going to happen.

00:23:12.000 The fighting in Ukraine will continue for a while,

00:23:15.500 and there'll be some horrors and tragedies,

00:23:19.120 but nothing's going to happen.

00:23:21.900 There won't be any major changing of hands,

00:23:25.140 maybe a little bit,

00:23:26.220 but not any large-scale changing of hands.

00:23:29.700 At that point,

00:23:31.640 it's also going to look like the only way that would happen

00:23:34.380 is if America massively increased the military assets of Ukraine,

00:23:40.800 which I don't think will do,

00:23:43.420 at least not enough for them to capture the rest of those territories.

00:23:46.340 Or it could be that we have some intelligence

00:23:53.400 that says the Russians are just going to run out of assets.

00:23:58.180 I mean, it could be that the Russians just run out of stuff,

00:24:01.020 and they just can't defend it anymore.

00:24:02.460 So what do you think is going to be more likely?

00:24:06.380 Permanent nothing?

00:24:11.080 Nobody goes anywhere?

00:24:12.480 Or do you think Russia will run out of stuff?

00:24:15.320 Because I think they would run out before we would run out.

00:24:18.660 Because it looks like there's no end

00:24:19.960 to how much we're willing to borrow to give them.

00:24:21.840 So, my prediction remains the same.

00:24:32.800 That there will be no genuine peace talks

00:24:35.580 until there's a genuine nuclear threat.

00:24:39.500 Now, you can say,

00:24:40.300 we already have a nuclear threat,

00:24:41.800 but I would say, no, we don't.

00:24:43.700 No, we have talk.

00:24:45.700 So far, we just have talk.

00:24:47.360 I don't actually feel the threat yet.

00:24:50.320 Do you?

00:24:51.720 I mean, I feel that it could become a threat.

00:24:54.700 And that's very real.

00:24:56.040 So I'm not saying there's nothing real there.

00:24:58.320 I'm saying that I don't feel it yet.

00:25:00.820 And I also don't think that Ukraine or Russia

00:25:03.460 or the United States feels it yet.

00:25:06.120 But we will.

00:25:08.240 I think there is no way

00:25:09.980 that we don't get to the brink of nuclear war.

00:25:14.400 What would stop it?

00:25:15.540 There's no way that they're going to just stop

00:25:18.240 and make a peace deal, right?

00:25:21.080 Does anybody think that Russia

00:25:23.240 is on the verge of making a peace deal?

00:25:25.960 No.

00:25:27.560 No.

00:25:28.360 Not unless things are much worse there than we think,

00:25:31.180 which is possible.

00:25:32.480 It's possible that things in Russia

00:25:33.820 are much worse than we think.

00:25:35.900 Because these things can,

00:25:37.640 you know, they can have a tipping point

00:25:39.120 where everything looks good until it doesn't.

00:25:41.880 We could be really close to the tipping point in Russia

00:25:44.600 but you don't know.

00:25:47.140 You could also not be anywhere near it.

00:25:51.740 Yeah.

00:25:52.940 So,

00:25:53.600 the most likely outcome

00:25:55.540 is that we will go to the brink of nuclear war

00:25:58.420 and then get serious.

00:26:00.980 But how in the world

00:26:02.440 would they ever decide

00:26:03.480 who owns those disputed territories? 0.78

00:26:05.740 I say that the future

00:26:09.000 is pretty much

00:26:10.580 written already.

00:26:12.480 And the future is that

00:26:13.980 neither Russia nor Ukraine

00:26:16.160 is going to be able to own those territories.

00:26:20.620 That's what I say.

00:26:21.980 Because it's the only thing that could work.

00:26:24.960 It would make both countries unhappy.

00:26:27.800 It would make both countries unhappy.

00:26:29.660 but

00:26:32.040 it's better than the alternatives.

00:26:34.740 Because the alternative is

00:26:35.960 they just keep fighting forever.

00:26:37.940 Because nobody's going to win.

00:26:39.420 And if they won,

00:26:40.300 the other side would just

00:26:41.500 shell them forever

00:26:42.340 or it would be a terrorist nightmare.

00:26:45.720 Yeah.

00:26:45.940 I'm surprised anybody lives there.

00:26:49.660 Five Ukrainians. 0.96

00:26:51.060 Yeah, it would be like

00:26:51.620 five little Ukrainians.

00:26:53.000 But if they were demilitarized,

00:26:55.660 that could work.

00:26:57.260 Because I don't see any argument

00:26:59.920 for why each of those

00:27:01.020 disputed little territories

00:27:02.380 should have its own military.

00:27:05.140 Because it wouldn't have a military

00:27:06.680 that could defend against

00:27:07.860 either Ukraine or Russia

00:27:09.320 on its own.

00:27:10.900 So there's no point

00:27:11.900 in having any military at all.

00:27:14.020 They can't win any wars.

00:27:16.560 They're not going to discourage anybody.

00:27:24.220 Yeah.

00:27:25.360 Would you live there?

00:27:26.240 I would not.

00:27:27.260 All right.

00:27:30.500 So I think somebody,

00:27:31.600 some third party like the UN

00:27:33.080 or somebody is going to have to step in

00:27:34.540 and run those disputed territories

00:27:37.640 and there's no other way it can go.

00:27:40.100 So that's my prediction.

00:27:42.380 There's no other way it can go.

00:27:46.160 Does anybody want to give me

00:27:47.600 an alternative prediction?

00:27:50.720 But you have to make the case

00:27:52.180 that it could go in that direction.

00:27:54.240 Like it's actually possible.

00:27:55.480 What would it be?

00:27:57.940 Anybody?

00:27:58.900 Let's see your predictions

00:28:00.200 in the comments.

00:28:05.900 What do you think?

00:28:06.820 Russia has a substantial arms-making capacity.

00:28:15.500 So they can continue making arms,

00:28:18.700 but that's only until they're, you know,

00:28:22.080 anything that requires technology breaks.

00:28:25.760 Making weapons requires technology,

00:28:28.040 and their technology structure

00:28:29.440 we're decapping.

00:28:31.140 So I don't know.

00:28:38.840 All right.

00:28:39.380 So let's take the alternative possibilities.

00:28:43.460 All right.

00:28:43.740 Possibility one,

00:28:44.860 Ukraine wins outright.

00:28:47.540 Possible or no?

00:28:48.380 And Russia says,

00:28:50.560 ah, darn it, we tried,

00:28:52.000 but I guess we'll just stop

00:28:53.720 trying to make war here.

00:28:56.580 All right.

00:28:57.160 I say that's not likely.

00:29:00.020 So how about Russia wins outright, 0.92

00:29:02.540 and Ukraine just says,

00:29:03.680 you know,

00:29:04.840 okay, you keep these territories.

00:29:07.420 How about that?

00:29:09.860 Nope.

00:29:11.000 No.

00:29:12.160 How about they split them?

00:29:13.720 How about they say,

00:29:16.200 well, all these territories are disputed,

00:29:18.800 but some of these

00:29:19.820 lean a little Ukrainian,

00:29:21.640 you know, the population does.

00:29:22.860 Some leads a little Russian.

00:29:24.220 We'll just split them down the middle

00:29:25.420 and call it good.

00:29:26.400 How about that?

00:29:28.020 Nope.

00:29:29.000 I don't think so.

00:29:29.920 Because I don't think we have

00:29:30.860 the right leaders

00:29:31.640 that would get you

00:29:32.380 to that kind of a result.

00:29:34.780 So if neither side can win,

00:29:37.480 militarily or by negotiating,

00:29:41.580 the only thing that's left

00:29:43.460 is that somebody else

00:29:44.980 is going to have to run

00:29:45.660 those countries

00:29:46.260 or you have a permanent war

00:29:47.720 and we're not going to settle

00:29:49.300 for a permanent war.

00:29:55.220 Yeah.

00:29:56.160 Yeah.

00:29:57.000 So

00:29:57.340 has anybody except me

00:30:01.880 floated the idea

00:30:03.300 of somebody who's not Ukraine

00:30:05.060 and not Russia

00:30:05.780 running those disputed territories?

00:30:09.260 Because it's going to happen.

00:30:11.720 Can anybody give me a confirmation?

00:30:13.460 Has anybody anywhere

00:30:15.020 mentioned

00:30:16.660 you're saying Elon,

00:30:21.020 but he didn't do that, did he?

00:30:22.620 We wouldn't know about that.

00:30:26.220 But anybody in the public realm?

00:30:32.340 Yeah, I don't think Elon must.

00:30:35.040 Elon said vote to decide,

00:30:37.320 but voting to decide

00:30:38.480 is deciding, you know,

00:30:39.740 which of the big entities

00:30:40.820 you go to.

00:30:43.440 I mean, that would work.

00:30:46.760 You know, if they had,

00:30:47.940 if they had a vote

00:30:48.680 that was credible,

00:30:50.040 if they had a vote

00:30:52.260 that was credible,

00:30:54.120 yeah.

00:30:57.260 But that still gives you

00:30:58.600 a winner and a loser,

00:30:59.640 doesn't it?

00:31:00.100 Suppose you were Russia 0.80

00:31:03.560 and you already knew

00:31:05.280 which way that people

00:31:06.120 would vote.

00:31:06.720 I don't know which way

00:31:07.440 would they vote, actually.

00:31:08.900 But suppose you knew

00:31:09.760 and you knew it was going

00:31:11.200 to go the other way.

00:31:12.940 Would you agree to the vote?

00:31:14.740 See, here's the problem

00:31:15.540 with the vote.

00:31:16.820 Here's the problem

00:31:17.440 with the vote.

00:31:19.180 Probably both Russia 0.98

00:31:20.720 and Ukraine

00:31:21.200 think they know

00:31:22.260 which way the vote

00:31:23.100 would go.

00:31:23.460 I think the vote

00:31:25.280 would only work

00:31:26.040 if you genuinely

00:31:26.880 didn't know

00:31:27.520 which way the vote

00:31:28.200 would go.

00:31:29.260 Does anybody agree

00:31:30.140 with that?

00:31:31.740 Would you agree

00:31:32.500 with the statement

00:31:33.140 that no one

00:31:34.460 will agree to a vote

00:31:35.760 if you know

00:31:36.640 which way it's going

00:31:37.280 to go?

00:31:38.180 Because that means

00:31:38.740 one side is agreeing

00:31:40.480 to lose.

00:31:42.100 Who would agree

00:31:42.640 to lose?

00:31:45.140 So I think

00:31:45.840 they can't do that.

00:31:47.080 I think they have

00:31:47.740 to do,

00:31:48.260 I think they have

00:31:48.860 to create a situation

00:31:49.940 in which they both

00:31:51.500 don't know

00:31:51.960 the outcome.

00:31:53.460 And that will be

00:31:54.020 vital to the outcome.

00:31:55.760 You have to genuinely

00:31:57.280 not know

00:31:57.940 how it's going

00:31:58.480 to turn out.

00:31:59.700 And that's why

00:32:00.120 having a third party

00:32:01.100 run it

00:32:01.660 until they get up

00:32:03.760 on their feet

00:32:04.380 and decide

00:32:05.420 who they want to be,

00:32:06.840 I think that's

00:32:07.580 the only way to go.

00:32:09.920 I think.

00:32:12.200 So that's my prediction.

00:32:14.000 So my prediction

00:32:14.800 is that

00:32:15.540 today I'm the only

00:32:18.320 person talking

00:32:19.120 about those

00:32:19.860 disputed territories

00:32:21.020 being independently

00:32:22.700 run

00:32:23.580 and

00:32:25.000 I predict

00:32:27.640 that in a month

00:32:28.560 it will be

00:32:30.160 a common topic.

00:32:31.580 Does anybody

00:32:32.220 want to bet?

00:32:33.720 In a month

00:32:34.480 it will be

00:32:34.900 a common topic

00:32:36.120 that one of the

00:32:37.760 options

00:32:38.200 is some kind

00:32:39.280 of an independent

00:32:40.120 country situation.

00:32:44.220 What do you say?

00:32:46.520 Possible?

00:32:47.760 Just the conversation.

00:32:48.820 I'm not saying

00:32:49.900 it's going to

00:32:50.280 happen in a month.

00:32:51.760 I'm going to say

00:32:52.620 that that conversation

00:32:54.160 will be a common 0.92

00:32:55.080 conversation in a month.

00:32:57.560 All right.

00:32:58.680 We'll see.

00:33:04.640 I'm really curious

00:33:05.740 whether Biden

00:33:06.400 really did

00:33:07.020 end the Chinese 1.00

00:33:08.020 tech sector

00:33:09.400 and that the news

00:33:10.940 decided not to

00:33:11.800 report it.

00:33:13.460 Like, I don't know

00:33:14.020 what's going on today.

00:33:15.360 That is really

00:33:16.180 confusing.

00:33:16.640 All right.

00:33:23.880 What do you think

00:33:24.820 Elon Musk

00:33:25.660 should do

00:33:26.060 with Starlink?

00:33:28.600 Do you think

00:33:29.400 Musk just needs 0.92

00:33:30.500 to run

00:33:30.920 Starlink

00:33:31.440 and let it go?

00:33:33.160 Now, one thing

00:33:34.140 that is worth

00:33:35.680 mentioning,

00:33:36.940 do you have any

00:33:37.520 idea how much

00:33:38.240 money he could

00:33:38.780 make on Starlink

00:33:39.620 once that's all

00:33:41.560 up and working?

00:33:42.160 Do you have any

00:33:44.160 idea how much

00:33:46.900 money Starlink

00:33:48.240 could make?

00:33:49.400 It's a replacement

00:33:50.300 for the whole

00:33:50.840 internet, basically.

00:33:52.260 Or at least the

00:33:53.460 transmission part.

00:33:54.400 people, yeah, why

00:34:06.680 can't they get paid

00:34:07.380 like everyone else?

00:34:10.840 I'll call it a

00:34:11.720 mistake.

00:34:14.860 But he made the

00:34:15.860 mistake of giving it

00:34:16.720 to him for free

00:34:17.520 before he signed

00:34:19.160 a deal.

00:34:20.800 And if you do

00:34:21.960 that, then people

00:34:22.620 say, well, why

00:34:23.380 should I sign the

00:34:23.960 deal?

00:34:24.160 I'm getting the

00:34:24.740 milk for free.

00:34:26.880 It only works

00:34:27.700 with a stationary

00:34:28.440 reception, right?

00:34:29.780 So you need a

00:34:30.240 little dish.

00:34:31.860 That's true.

00:34:32.620 So it's never

00:34:33.100 going to, so that

00:34:35.100 by definition, that

00:34:36.200 means it's never

00:34:36.860 going to be in a

00:34:37.380 car, right?

00:34:41.700 So your car will

00:34:42.720 never be able to

00:34:43.480 hone in on the

00:34:44.320 satellites.

00:34:45.300 There's so many

00:34:46.100 of them, though.

00:34:46.700 You can't

00:34:47.100 automatically find

00:34:47.960 one.

00:34:48.940 I don't know.

00:34:51.200 It works for

00:34:52.060 mobile platforms,

00:34:52.940 somebody says.

00:34:53.400 It's on boats.

00:34:56.260 Oh, there is a

00:34:57.020 mobile device.

00:34:57.780 Okay.

00:34:58.860 So some here are

00:34:59.920 saying it is

00:35:00.440 mobile and some

00:35:01.100 are saying not.

00:35:02.640 He has a flat

00:35:03.400 version.

00:35:07.780 All right.

00:35:08.320 You could put a

00:35:08.840 receiver in a car.

00:35:12.620 All right.

00:35:13.120 Yeah, you know, I

00:35:17.420 would be worried if

00:35:18.280 I were Elon Musk.

00:35:20.500 I don't think he

00:35:21.600 wants to be in a

00:35:22.200 position that he's

00:35:23.340 the one who caused

00:35:24.320 a peace, if it's

00:35:26.600 one that one side

00:35:27.800 doesn't like.

00:35:32.580 The laser

00:35:33.680 inter-satellite links

00:35:34.680 aren't turned on.

00:35:35.860 Okay.

00:35:42.240 Oh.

00:35:48.820 Is China 0.70

00:35:49.720 is with what?

00:35:50.880 I'm sorry.

00:35:56.120 Monkey brains.

00:35:57.260 What?

00:36:00.240 All right.

00:36:00.880 It's a weird

00:36:03.900 day in the

00:36:04.620 news, like I

00:36:05.480 said, because

00:36:06.660 there's just not

00:36:07.200 much happening

00:36:07.740 there.

00:36:08.440 I think I

00:36:08.980 probably won't go

00:36:09.600 too long today

00:36:10.300 because I don't

00:36:11.080 have anything else

00:36:11.720 to talk about.

00:36:12.520 Is there anything

00:36:12.900 I'm missing?

00:36:14.360 Oh, here's one

00:36:15.260 thing I wanted to

00:36:15.880 mention.

00:36:16.340 I was saying

00:36:17.080 today, you've

00:36:18.440 seen this a bunch

00:36:19.080 of times, the

00:36:20.260 list of all the

00:36:21.640 Trump business

00:36:23.200 failures.

00:36:24.260 Have you seen

00:36:24.960 that on the

00:36:25.500 internet?

00:36:25.800 I think there

00:36:26.660 are like 14

00:36:27.480 or 15 of

00:36:28.240 them or

00:36:28.500 something.

00:36:29.900 And so

00:36:31.680 it's everything

00:36:32.040 from Trump

00:36:32.640 stakes to

00:36:33.420 Trump this

00:36:34.040 and Trump

00:36:34.920 airlines and

00:36:35.660 stuff like

00:36:36.020 that.

00:36:37.260 But I don't

00:36:38.460 think people

00:36:38.920 understand that

00:36:39.740 some number of

00:36:41.060 those businesses

00:36:41.760 were licensing

00:36:43.400 deals.

00:36:45.020 And the way

00:36:45.300 a licensing deal

00:36:46.200 is, if that's

00:36:48.080 what they were,

00:36:48.520 and I think

00:36:48.860 they were,

00:36:49.940 if it's a

00:36:50.520 licensing deal,

00:36:51.860 then Trump

00:36:52.340 sells his name

00:36:53.340 but he's not

00:36:54.780 involved in the

00:36:55.480 business, he

00:36:56.700 just sells his

00:36:57.320 name.

00:36:58.320 So if the

00:36:58.980 business fails,

00:37:00.700 Trump still

00:37:01.140 makes money

00:37:01.680 because he

00:37:02.260 sold his

00:37:02.660 name and he

00:37:03.780 doesn't have

00:37:04.160 to give it

00:37:04.520 back.

00:37:05.480 So he's not

00:37:06.140 on the hook

00:37:07.020 for any debt

00:37:08.700 that they

00:37:09.080 cause or

00:37:09.620 anything else.

00:37:10.740 So when I

00:37:11.560 was doing a

00:37:12.560 lot of

00:37:12.780 licensing for

00:37:13.500 Dilbert, in

00:37:15.680 the frothiest

00:37:17.220 time for the

00:37:18.080 Dilbert product,

00:37:19.920 licensees were

00:37:20.640 coming from

00:37:21.240 everywhere and

00:37:22.100 saying, can we

00:37:23.040 please give you

00:37:23.740 money?

00:37:24.040 money and

00:37:25.560 that's it.

00:37:27.800 You just have

00:37:28.580 to take our

00:37:29.060 money and then

00:37:29.740 we can use

00:37:30.320 Dilbert on a

00:37:30.920 product.

00:37:31.840 And I would

00:37:32.260 look at the

00:37:32.660 product and

00:37:33.660 their business

00:37:34.500 plan and I

00:37:35.140 would say,

00:37:35.620 there's no way

00:37:36.420 anybody's going

00:37:37.220 to buy that.

00:37:38.800 It would be

00:37:39.220 like Dilbert

00:37:39.860 pajamas and

00:37:40.740 stuff.

00:37:41.360 And I'd look

00:37:41.700 at it and say,

00:37:42.220 all right,

00:37:43.360 you're going to

00:37:43.880 sell like six

00:37:45.300 Dilbert pajamas.

00:37:47.420 But they were

00:37:48.080 very hard to do

00:37:48.920 it and it

00:37:49.340 wasn't up to

00:37:50.980 me.

00:37:51.220 So they

00:37:52.580 would say,

00:37:53.160 can we give

00:37:53.640 you money and

00:37:54.660 we'll take all

00:37:55.280 the risk and

00:37:56.480 there'll be no

00:37:57.380 consequence to

00:37:58.220 you.

00:37:58.960 If it doesn't

00:37:59.820 work, nobody's

00:38:01.200 even going to

00:38:01.640 notice, just

00:38:02.480 there won't be

00:38:03.000 any pajamas.

00:38:04.420 And so I

00:38:04.860 would take their

00:38:05.380 money and I

00:38:06.720 would be done.

00:38:08.260 I'd be done.

00:38:09.120 There's no more

00:38:09.840 work on my part.

00:38:10.900 I don't even know

00:38:11.520 how the business

00:38:12.080 goes.

00:38:12.780 And then that

00:38:13.400 business fails.

00:38:15.300 Well, if I were

00:38:16.240 Trump, I would get

00:38:16.960 blamed for that.

00:38:17.740 But why would

00:38:19.740 Trump be blamed

00:38:20.760 for licensing

00:38:22.300 his name, taking

00:38:23.300 his money, putting

00:38:24.080 it in the bank,

00:38:25.700 completely done,

00:38:27.820 and then somebody

00:38:28.520 else's business

00:38:29.420 doesn't work?

00:38:31.400 Licensing is a 1.00

00:38:34.080 business that, at

00:38:36.080 least the kind of

00:38:37.340 licensing guy was

00:38:38.120 in and probably

00:38:38.780 him too, it's the

00:38:40.440 kind of business

00:38:41.000 where most of the

00:38:42.140 companies should

00:38:42.820 fail.

00:38:44.380 And the people

00:38:45.160 who are tweeting

00:38:46.000 these lists around

00:38:46.700 don't realize that.

00:38:47.740 Trump was always

00:38:50.340 in the business

00:38:51.180 of high-risk

00:38:59.920 things that he

00:39:02.240 controlled his

00:39:03.580 downside on.

00:39:05.100 So he had a

00:39:06.380 potentially, you

00:39:07.200 know, a high

00:39:07.660 gain, but he

00:39:09.560 couldn't go any

00:39:10.120 lower than, let's

00:39:10.940 say, you know,

00:39:11.840 bankruptcy or

00:39:12.700 whatever.

00:39:13.380 So he had a, his

00:39:14.240 downside was capped.

00:39:16.080 But his upside

00:39:17.020 wasn't.

00:39:17.880 So he kept doing

00:39:18.560 high-risk things

00:39:19.440 until something

00:39:20.040 paid off and he

00:39:21.340 became president of

00:39:22.200 the United States.

00:39:24.260 Yeah.

00:39:24.660 Some of the

00:39:25.180 businesses were

00:39:25.840 definitely his.

00:39:26.540 The casinos, as

00:39:27.740 you mentioned.

00:39:28.760 Yeah.

00:39:29.100 The casinos were

00:39:29.900 his.

00:39:31.400 But I doubt the

00:39:32.240 airline was.

00:39:34.180 Somebody do a

00:39:34.800 fact check.

00:39:35.380 Was Trump

00:39:35.860 Airlines a

00:39:37.380 licensing deal?

00:39:38.960 Probably was,

00:39:39.860 right?

00:39:40.080 Yeah.

00:39:40.160 Some Trump

00:39:44.920 towers are

00:39:45.500 licensed, if

00:39:46.920 not all, at

00:39:48.540 this point.

00:39:49.120 I think at this

00:39:49.640 point they're

00:39:49.960 probably all

00:39:50.400 licensed, but I

00:39:51.460 don't know.

00:39:52.380 Don't know for

00:39:53.220 sure.

00:39:54.220 He owned the

00:39:54.820 airlines?

00:39:57.860 But I'll bet he

00:39:58.740 protected his

00:39:59.480 downside.

00:40:01.300 Yeah.

00:40:01.740 Okay.

00:40:03.080 Anyway, so I'd

00:40:04.620 like to see a list

00:40:05.520 of which of those

00:40:06.300 failures were

00:40:07.020 actually licensing

00:40:07.800 deals and which

00:40:08.540 weren't.

00:40:08.780 But in any

00:40:09.800 case, he wasn't

00:40:10.460 managing any of

00:40:11.280 them.

00:40:12.820 We all agree he

00:40:13.820 wasn't managing

00:40:14.520 any of that,

00:40:15.040 right?

00:40:16.360 Do you know

00:40:16.920 what the best

00:40:18.320 explanation for

00:40:19.300 Trump University

00:40:20.240 was?

00:40:21.840 I gave you this

00:40:22.800 a long time

00:40:23.300 ago.

00:40:25.480 The best

00:40:26.240 explanation for

00:40:27.020 Trump University

00:40:27.800 is that Trump

00:40:29.420 licensed his

00:40:30.160 name and he

00:40:31.880 trusted the

00:40:32.580 people who ran

00:40:33.280 it to do it

00:40:34.540 right.

00:40:35.600 And they

00:40:35.960 didn't.

00:40:37.640 And maybe

00:40:38.540 somebody told

00:40:39.180 him about

00:40:39.600 it, but it

00:40:40.000 just wasn't

00:40:40.440 his top

00:40:40.800 priority.

00:40:42.080 Maybe he

00:40:43.040 should have

00:40:43.300 followed up and

00:40:43.960 maybe he should

00:40:44.440 have done

00:40:44.700 something about

00:40:45.280 it.

00:40:46.080 But if you

00:40:47.640 look at all

00:40:48.200 the things that

00:40:48.740 have his name

00:40:49.240 on it, he

00:40:50.540 couldn't have

00:40:50.940 possibly managed

00:40:52.060 all that stuff.

00:40:53.240 And he

00:40:53.700 couldn't have

00:40:54.080 possibly been

00:40:54.740 interested in the

00:40:55.660 details of those

00:40:57.180 courses.

00:40:58.140 Do you think he

00:40:58.700 really looked at

00:40:59.380 the curriculum

00:41:00.940 before he put

00:41:01.800 his name on

00:41:02.320 it?

00:41:03.420 Maybe skimmed

00:41:04.360 it?

00:41:05.520 Maybe skimmed

00:41:06.340 it?

00:41:08.120 Yeah.

00:41:14.220 Yeah, whether

00:41:15.240 he had an

00:41:15.760 ownership stake or

00:41:16.900 just a licensing

00:41:17.820 stake, in

00:41:19.400 either case, it's

00:41:20.420 very unlikely he

00:41:21.340 knew what was

00:41:21.860 going on because

00:41:22.840 he had too

00:41:23.820 much of a

00:41:24.420 business enterprise

00:41:26.280 at that point.

00:41:27.680 All right.

00:41:28.920 That's all I

00:41:29.760 got.

00:41:30.180 Is there

00:41:30.380 anything else?

00:41:32.900 Anything I

00:41:33.520 haven't talked

00:41:33.880 about?

00:41:36.040 No, I just

00:41:36.760 got allergies.

00:41:38.160 It sounds

00:41:38.620 like I'm

00:41:38.980 catching a

00:41:39.440 cold.

00:41:42.380 Oh, the

00:41:42.960 California

00:41:43.440 Bill 20

00:41:45.660 98.

00:41:48.340 So 20

00:41:49.180 98 would,

00:41:51.840 all right,

00:41:52.380 we're going to

00:41:52.620 have to talk

00:41:53.080 about this.

00:41:53.580 This might

00:41:53.900 not go the

00:41:54.400 way you

00:41:54.700 thought.

00:41:56.060 So

00:41:56.420 California

00:41:56.920 Bill 20

00:41:57.520 98, if I

00:41:58.340 understand it

00:41:58.920 correctly,

00:42:00.540 would require

00:42:02.680 that doctors

00:42:03.340 only talk in

00:42:04.400 the approved

00:42:05.000 way about

00:42:06.620 the pandemic

00:42:07.480 or was it

00:42:08.940 in general?

00:42:10.780 I think it

00:42:11.400 might have

00:42:11.640 been more

00:42:11.960 generalized than

00:42:12.660 that.

00:42:13.380 But the idea

00:42:13.920 is that if

00:42:14.420 you're a doctor

00:42:14.920 you couldn't

00:42:15.480 just, yeah,

00:42:17.060 it's generalized.

00:42:18.280 If you're a 0.88

00:42:19.020 doctor you

00:42:19.460 couldn't just

00:42:19.940 be making up

00:42:20.620 stuff that

00:42:21.840 wasn't sort

00:42:23.660 of approved

00:42:25.320 medical narrative.

00:42:27.620 I don't know

00:42:28.220 the details of

00:42:28.900 that.

00:42:29.100 But you

00:42:30.800 saw how

00:42:31.220 hard it

00:42:31.480 was for

00:42:31.800 me to

00:42:32.080 just describe

00:42:32.820 it?

00:42:34.520 Doesn't

00:42:35.040 that mean

00:42:35.960 that it

00:42:36.360 would be

00:42:36.620 hard to

00:42:37.020 decide what

00:42:37.560 the narrative

00:42:38.020 would be?

00:42:39.600 Like how

00:42:40.040 would you

00:42:40.320 decide what

00:42:40.900 is approved

00:42:41.960 and what's

00:42:42.660 not?

00:42:43.540 So without

00:42:44.200 knowing anything

00:42:44.980 about it,

00:42:45.920 you automatically

00:42:46.820 could know

00:42:47.660 it would be

00:42:49.040 pretty hard

00:42:49.640 to decide

00:42:50.760 what was a

00:42:52.420 violation and

00:42:53.080 what wasn't.

00:42:53.680 Now, let

00:42:56.440 me ask you

00:42:56.920 this.

00:42:58.480 Suppose it's

00:42:59.240 a toss-up

00:43:00.220 situation and

00:43:01.200 the experts

00:43:03.660 disagree.

00:43:05.600 In that

00:43:06.000 case, is it

00:43:06.640 the worst

00:43:07.040 thing in the

00:43:07.440 world if

00:43:07.900 your doctor

00:43:08.460 departs the

00:43:09.460 official narrative

00:43:10.800 because the

00:43:11.320 experts disagree?

00:43:13.100 Well, in that

00:43:13.620 case, you

00:43:13.980 could say to

00:43:14.400 yourself, no,

00:43:15.320 it's between

00:43:16.620 me and my

00:43:17.080 doctor.

00:43:17.580 You could

00:43:17.840 make that

00:43:18.200 argument.

00:43:19.360 But what

00:43:19.800 if the

00:43:22.420 actual risk

00:43:23.320 of doing it

00:43:23.900 wrong is

00:43:24.500 just really

00:43:26.480 bad?

00:43:28.800 It's a

00:43:29.420 little bit

00:43:29.780 sort of a

00:43:30.620 free speech

00:43:31.200 problem,

00:43:31.680 isn't it?

00:43:34.500 Let me

00:43:35.280 back up

00:43:35.740 here.

00:43:36.620 All right.

00:43:37.500 How many

00:43:37.900 of you

00:43:38.260 believe in

00:43:38.920 unrestricted

00:43:39.680 free speech?

00:43:41.780 Everybody?

00:43:43.260 We're all on

00:43:44.060 that side,

00:43:44.500 right?

00:43:44.680 We all want

00:43:45.180 unrestricted

00:43:45.860 free speech.

00:43:46.980 But most

00:43:48.140 of you would

00:43:48.600 agree that

00:43:49.960 yelling fire

00:43:51.060 in a crowded

00:43:51.720 theater because

00:43:53.260 it could have

00:43:53.840 an immediate

00:43:54.420 bad impact

00:43:55.880 on people's

00:43:56.460 health and

00:43:56.940 safety,

00:43:57.960 then you

00:43:58.360 would agree

00:43:58.760 that that

00:43:59.240 should be

00:44:00.400 potentially a

00:44:02.480 legal problem,

00:44:03.200 right?

00:44:04.600 Would you

00:44:05.220 agree with me

00:44:05.900 that?

00:44:06.780 Unrestricted,

00:44:08.040 except with

00:44:08.780 that exception.

00:44:10.480 You don't want

00:44:10.980 to yell fire

00:44:11.660 in a crowded

00:44:12.740 theater.

00:44:13.500 Okay.

00:44:14.400 But otherwise,

00:44:15.300 completely

00:44:15.640 unrestricted.

00:44:17.000 Now, while you'd

00:44:17.740 have to make

00:44:18.080 an exception

00:44:18.520 for libel,

00:44:23.260 defaming

00:44:23.820 somebody

00:44:24.260 intentionally.

00:44:25.620 So would

00:44:26.400 you agree

00:44:26.800 that we

00:44:27.140 could also

00:44:27.600 have laws

00:44:28.440 that say

00:44:29.960 you can't

00:44:30.960 libel

00:44:31.580 somebody,

00:44:32.820 right?

00:44:33.900 If it

00:44:34.380 could be

00:44:34.640 proven.

00:44:37.040 All right.

00:44:37.540 Most of

00:44:37.900 you agree.

00:44:38.980 So unrestricted

00:44:40.080 free speech,

00:44:40.700 you can say

00:44:41.160 anything you want

00:44:41.800 as long as it

00:44:42.380 doesn't immediately

00:44:43.000 hurt somebody,

00:44:43.820 right?

00:44:44.040 But if you

00:44:47.080 did it with

00:44:47.660 the knowledge

00:44:48.100 that it

00:44:48.360 would hurt

00:44:48.620 somebody,

00:44:49.300 and maybe

00:44:49.680 even that

00:44:50.080 was why

00:44:50.440 you did

00:44:50.780 it,

00:44:52.320 maybe that's

00:44:53.180 bad.

00:44:54.940 Somebody says

00:44:55.480 yelling fire

00:44:56.100 in a movie

00:44:56.580 theater is not

00:44:57.340 illegal.

00:44:58.140 No, it's

00:44:58.560 not illegal

00:44:59.800 if it doesn't

00:45:01.320 cause any

00:45:01.900 problem.

00:45:03.620 You can yell

00:45:04.460 it if everybody

00:45:05.060 ignores you.

00:45:06.100 That's still

00:45:06.600 legal.

00:45:07.360 Yes, that's

00:45:07.880 correct.

00:45:09.520 All right.

00:45:10.700 Then,

00:45:12.020 so we've

00:45:13.040 got these

00:45:13.340 minor little

00:45:14.020 things.

00:45:15.260 Now, so

00:45:16.780 you're in

00:45:17.120 favor of

00:45:17.560 unrestricted

00:45:18.100 free speech.

00:45:19.180 So most

00:45:19.860 of you are

00:45:20.240 in favor of

00:45:21.000 teaching

00:45:21.600 children about

00:45:23.980 sexuality at

00:45:25.360 ages five

00:45:27.360 and six,

00:45:27.880 right?

00:45:28.540 You're all

00:45:28.960 good with

00:45:29.240 that?

00:45:30.200 Oh, no,

00:45:31.140 no, you're

00:45:31.720 not good

00:45:32.040 with that.

00:45:33.060 So that

00:45:33.520 would be an

00:45:33.860 exception,

00:45:34.460 too.

00:45:35.740 So unrestricted

00:45:36.860 free speech,

00:45:37.820 we're all in

00:45:38.800 favor of it.

00:45:40.140 Unless it

00:45:41.780 hurts somebody

00:45:42.520 like yelling

00:45:43.340 fire in a

00:45:43.940 theater or

00:45:45.180 defames them

00:45:46.060 or slanders

00:45:47.380 them or

00:45:48.660 teaches sex

00:45:49.300 to your

00:45:49.580 children.

00:45:50.880 But

00:45:51.100 otherwise,

00:45:52.520 otherwise

00:45:53.180 unrestricted.

00:45:54.460 Are we on

00:45:54.860 the same page?

00:45:56.560 Otherwise?

00:45:56.940 So in other

00:45:58.400 words, all of

00:45:58.980 the exceptions,

00:46:01.360 what do all

00:46:01.940 the exceptions

00:46:02.520 have in

00:46:02.980 common?

00:46:04.700 The exceptions

00:46:05.680 have in

00:46:06.160 common that

00:46:07.320 it is

00:46:08.260 immediate

00:46:08.620 harm,

00:46:09.120 that there

00:46:10.880 is obvious

00:46:12.100 immediate

00:46:12.540 harm to

00:46:13.760 the safety

00:46:15.500 issue, and

00:46:16.200 it's immediate.

00:46:17.220 That's

00:46:17.700 different from

00:46:18.260 saying general

00:46:19.020 things like,

00:46:20.240 oh, generally

00:46:20.960 Democrats are

00:46:21.840 bad, and

00:46:23.140 then you make

00:46:23.520 the argument,

00:46:24.100 oh, if you

00:46:24.540 hadn't said

00:46:24.920 Democrats are

00:46:25.580 bad, society

00:46:26.960 would be

00:46:27.520 working better

00:46:28.120 and people

00:46:28.520 would be

00:46:28.880 more alive.

00:46:30.260 So that

00:46:30.860 doesn't work.

00:46:31.440 It needs

00:46:31.720 to be direct,

00:46:33.500 obvious, you 0.95

00:46:34.080 can draw a

00:46:34.620 clean line from

00:46:35.680 the language

00:46:36.440 to somebody

00:46:36.980 got hurt.

00:46:38.220 In some

00:46:38.820 of those

00:46:39.120 cases, those

00:46:39.800 would be

00:46:40.060 illegal.

00:46:42.220 And that's

00:46:42.700 what that

00:46:43.180 2098 law

00:46:45.420 is trying to

00:46:45.880 do.

00:46:46.940 It's trying

00:46:47.760 to prevent

00:46:48.420 people from

00:46:49.040 yelling fire

00:46:50.080 in a crowded

00:46:50.680 theater.

00:46:52.160 That's what

00:46:52.760 it's trying

00:46:53.200 to do.

00:46:54.100 It's trying

00:46:55.000 to keep

00:46:55.460 you from

00:46:56.140 teaching sex

00:46:57.240 to children.

00:46:58.600 I mean,

00:46:58.980 in a,

00:47:01.000 not literally,

00:47:03.240 but what

00:47:03.660 it's doing

00:47:04.060 is trying to

00:47:04.600 prevent harm.

00:47:06.680 So,

00:47:07.860 the problem

00:47:09.800 is it's

00:47:10.100 probably too

00:47:10.520 broad, yeah.

00:47:11.420 That's probably

00:47:11.920 the problem.

00:47:13.160 But could

00:47:14.200 you imagine

00:47:14.740 a situation

00:47:15.480 in which

00:47:17.220 telling people

00:47:18.340 the opposite

00:47:19.200 of the

00:47:20.120 known

00:47:20.920 scientifically

00:47:21.800 demonstrated

00:47:22.620 truth

00:47:23.180 maybe should

00:47:25.060 be illegal?

00:47:28.800 Is there

00:47:29.580 any certainty

00:47:31.060 that would

00:47:32.820 allow you

00:47:33.460 to be okay

00:47:33.980 with that?

00:47:34.420 suppose you

00:47:36.160 had a

00:47:36.380 doctor that

00:47:39.260 was advising

00:47:39.900 people to

00:47:40.540 start smoking.

00:47:43.340 Anybody?

00:47:44.640 If you

00:47:45.240 had a

00:47:45.480 teacher

00:47:45.720 advise people

00:47:46.460 to start

00:47:47.140 smoking,

00:47:48.380 should there

00:47:48.820 be any

00:47:49.080 legal consequence

00:47:49.980 for that?

00:47:52.240 What do you

00:47:52.900 think?

00:47:54.260 Should there

00:47:54.920 be legal

00:47:55.520 consequence for

00:47:56.380 a doctor who

00:47:57.020 tells people to

00:47:57.680 start smoking?

00:47:58.520 most say no.

00:48:02.860 Most say no

00:48:03.700 because you

00:48:04.260 already understand

00:48:05.360 that smoking

00:48:05.980 is dangerous.

00:48:06.880 So it's a

00:48:07.520 trick question.

00:48:08.800 But imagine

00:48:09.380 if you didn't

00:48:10.020 know.

00:48:11.280 Imagine if

00:48:11.940 science knew

00:48:12.660 it was bad

00:48:13.160 for you,

00:48:13.800 like totally

00:48:14.500 bad for you.

00:48:15.840 You didn't

00:48:16.460 know the

00:48:16.760 difference.

00:48:18.560 But your

00:48:19.160 doctor said,

00:48:19.700 that's fine.

00:48:20.860 It's fine.

00:48:21.300 It's good

00:48:21.980 for you.

00:48:23.740 Would it

00:48:24.300 be illegal

00:48:24.760 then?

00:48:25.620 See, the

00:48:26.000 only reason

00:48:26.440 it's not

00:48:26.820 illegal is

00:48:27.380 that you're

00:48:27.680 well-informed.

00:48:28.680 So you

00:48:29.020 already know

00:48:29.480 it's bad

00:48:29.840 for you.

00:48:30.220 So it

00:48:30.520 wouldn't

00:48:30.780 fool you. 0.99

00:48:32.440 I don't

00:48:32.640 know.

00:48:34.340 All I'm

00:48:35.020 going to

00:48:35.220 add to

00:48:35.560 this

00:48:35.760 conversation

00:48:36.280 is that

00:48:36.960 we do

00:48:38.620 have a

00:48:39.000 precedent

00:48:39.400 that

00:48:40.820 restricting

00:48:41.540 free speech

00:48:42.420 to stop

00:48:43.180 immediate

00:48:43.700 harm

00:48:44.340 is good.

00:48:48.740 But then

00:48:49.380 you have

00:48:49.620 the situation

00:48:50.240 where the

00:48:50.980 see,

00:48:51.780 here's where

00:48:52.420 everything got

00:48:52.980 murky.

00:48:54.420 In my

00:48:55.160 opinion,

00:48:55.880 this is where

00:48:56.560 things currently

00:48:57.520 stand.

00:48:59.540 Then I'm

00:49:00.200 going to be

00:49:00.500 describing

00:49:01.020 mainstream

00:49:01.880 science's

00:49:02.740 opinion,

00:49:03.200 not my

00:49:03.580 own,

00:49:03.860 okay?

00:49:05.000 Everybody

00:49:05.420 okay with

00:49:05.840 that?

00:49:06.620 I'm going

00:49:06.940 to describe

00:49:07.520 mainstream

00:49:08.080 science's

00:49:08.940 opinion,

00:49:09.320 not mine.

00:49:10.260 So don't

00:49:10.660 get on me 0.89

00:49:11.200 if you don't

00:49:11.660 agree with

00:49:12.060 this.

00:49:13.560 Mainstream

00:49:14.040 science says

00:49:14.840 the vaccinations

00:49:16.260 did not

00:49:16.940 stop transmission,

00:49:18.640 but it did

00:49:19.980 save a lot

00:49:20.740 of lives.

00:49:21.460 That's what

00:49:21.840 they say,

00:49:22.540 not me,

00:49:23.180 don't blame

00:49:23.620 me,

00:49:24.040 don't get

00:49:24.320 on me.

00:49:25.360 That's what

00:49:25.780 science says,

00:49:27.120 mainstream

00:49:27.420 science.

00:49:28.980 But is it

00:49:31.160 not also

00:49:31.740 true that

00:49:32.640 the same

00:49:33.120 people who

00:49:33.600 are telling

00:49:33.920 us what's

00:49:34.380 good for

00:49:34.800 us clearly

00:49:36.020 misled us?

00:49:37.800 I'm not

00:49:38.120 going to say

00:49:38.420 lie because I

00:49:39.260 don't know who

00:49:39.700 was lying and

00:49:40.320 who just

00:49:40.620 didn't know.

00:49:41.960 They clearly

00:49:42.540 misled us 0.88

00:49:43.220 about the

00:49:43.860 transmissibility

00:49:45.100 if you're

00:49:45.980 vaccinated.

00:49:46.380 So in

00:49:48.300 that case,

00:49:49.600 should it

00:49:50.060 be illegal

00:49:50.820 for somebody

00:49:52.380 to depart

00:49:53.100 from the

00:49:53.540 narrative

00:49:53.840 when you

00:49:54.340 know that

00:49:54.720 the people

00:49:55.100 who created

00:49:55.960 the narrative

00:49:56.560 are not

00:49:57.300 credible?

00:49:59.700 That's where

00:50:00.340 it gets

00:50:00.620 complicated.

00:50:02.060 Because you

00:50:02.660 really don't

00:50:03.200 know who

00:50:03.680 has your

00:50:04.340 best interest.

00:50:04.900 If I knew

00:50:06.480 the consensus

00:50:08.700 of scientists

00:50:09.540 had my best

00:50:10.360 interest in

00:50:10.960 mind, I

00:50:12.140 would at

00:50:12.420 least be

00:50:12.820 open to

00:50:13.420 the possibility

00:50:14.120 that they

00:50:16.640 should have

00:50:17.120 maybe some

00:50:19.880 extra rights

00:50:21.240 or something.

00:50:22.480 But we

00:50:23.200 don't have

00:50:23.540 that assurance.

00:50:25.160 At this

00:50:25.580 point, we

00:50:25.960 don't trust

00:50:26.360 anybody.

00:50:28.000 So I

00:50:28.660 think you

00:50:28.940 have to

00:50:29.200 default to

00:50:29.980 free speech

00:50:30.800 if you

00:50:32.480 don't trust

00:50:32.920 anybody.

00:50:33.380 Because free

00:50:35.140 speech is

00:50:35.620 your only

00:50:35.980 hope.

00:50:37.500 It's your

00:50:37.820 only hope.

00:50:39.300 Everything

00:50:39.780 else can't

00:50:40.480 work.

00:50:41.720 And maybe

00:50:42.020 free speech

00:50:42.580 won't work

00:50:43.060 either.

00:50:43.880 But it's

00:50:44.180 your only

00:50:44.500 hope.

00:50:46.680 So having

00:50:47.420 walked you

00:50:47.920 through it,

00:50:48.400 I think I'm

00:50:49.180 going to

00:50:49.380 favor free

00:50:50.020 speech in

00:50:50.460 that case.

00:50:50.980 Even though

00:50:51.360 there might

00:50:51.720 be situations

00:50:53.320 where there

00:50:53.800 is immediate

00:50:54.280 harm at

00:50:56.400 risk, I

00:50:57.680 would still

00:50:57.920 go with

00:50:58.200 the free

00:50:58.480 speech, I

00:50:58.920 think.

00:51:01.840 The

00:51:02.320 missing

00:51:02.580 snow crabs

00:51:03.280 story.

00:51:03.720 Yeah, a

00:51:04.840 lot of

00:51:05.060 snow crabs

00:51:05.520 missing, but

00:51:06.120 I don't

00:51:07.500 care.

00:51:09.240 I don't

00:51:09.880 miss any

00:51:10.280 of them.

00:51:12.820 Yeah, Sweden

00:51:13.460 is going to

00:51:13.900 build new

00:51:14.620 nuclear reactors.

00:51:17.860 So take

00:51:18.780 that, Greta.

00:51:19.800 She's in

00:51:20.400 favor of

00:51:20.820 nuclear.

00:51:21.640 Greta likes

00:51:22.260 nuclear now.

00:51:24.720 Thanks,

00:51:25.320 Greta.

00:51:30.080 How about

00:51:30.700 the Alex

00:51:31.100 Jones situation?

00:51:32.020 We talked

00:51:32.380 about that

00:51:32.800 already.

00:51:33.280 I think

00:51:37.660 the penalty

00:51:38.120 was out

00:51:39.160 of whack

00:51:40.080 with the

00:51:40.480 crime.

00:51:44.340 All right.

00:51:47.940 Georgia's

00:51:48.500 starting up

00:51:48.900 a new

00:51:49.120 reactor?

00:51:50.500 They are?

00:51:55.460 All right.

00:51:56.240 All right,

00:51:56.720 that's all

00:51:57.040 for now,

00:51:57.440 and I

00:51:57.960 will

00:51:58.340 talk to you

00:52:02.520 tomorrow.

00:52:03.400 Bye for

00:52:04.240 now.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 16, 2022

Episode 1898 Scott Adams： Why Hasn't Elon Musk Ended Ukraine War In His Spare Time Yet？ Is He Lazy？

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