Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 16, 2022


Episode 1898 Scott Adams： Why Hasn't Elon Musk Ended Ukraine War In His Spare Time Yet？ Is He Lazy？


Episode Stats

Length

52 minutes

Words per Minute

134.92511

Word Count

7,026

Sentence Count

557

Misogynist Sentences

8

Hate Speech Sentences

25


Summary


Transcript

00:00:01.000 Good morning, everybody, and welcome to A Highlight of Civilization, Coffee with Scott Adams.
00:00:07.820 Today, you may have noticed, I'm wearing my Halloween costume.
00:00:12.460 I'll be going as a Zelensky.
00:00:15.640 It's the easiest costume you could ever do.
00:00:18.660 Yeah, it's just a t-shirt, but I think I'm killing it.
00:00:23.200 And if you'd like to take this experience up to stratospheric levels, and I know you do,
00:00:29.480 all you need is a cup or mug or a glass or take your chalice or stein, a canteen, jug or a flask, a vessel of any kind.
00:00:36.920 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.
00:00:40.420 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine, the end of the day, the thing that makes everything better.
00:00:47.880 It's called the Simultaneous Sip. That's right.
00:00:51.040 And it happens now. Go.
00:00:52.740 Go.
00:00:52.800 I keep saying Jack Posobiec's name wrong.
00:01:10.620 Are you telling me?
00:01:11.400 I think some people just have to get used to the fact that people are going to say their name anyway.
00:01:20.880 I think if you have some kinds of names, you just have to get used to the fact people are going to do it any way they can.
00:01:28.340 So, do we need to talk about Madonna?
00:01:35.140 I feel like I was going to ignore the whole Madonna got some plastic surgery, didn't look so good story.
00:01:44.700 But, oh my God, there is something going on there that's not good.
00:01:49.540 And it's a perfect example of what happens when somebody has too much power.
00:01:56.700 First of all, she's clearly insane.
00:01:59.980 Would anybody doubt that?
00:02:02.520 She's exhibiting serious mental problems.
00:02:07.680 And obviously there's nobody who can say no to her.
00:02:11.140 I mean, even her surgeon can't say no to her.
00:02:13.080 How in the world does anybody intervene like your children probably have no power over?
00:02:20.460 This is going to get worse.
00:02:23.240 It's going to get worse.
00:02:24.720 And I have no idea what the problem is.
00:02:28.080 I mean, it's just, you know, massive mental problems.
00:02:32.760 But I wonder if the pandemic got her.
00:02:34.620 I don't know.
00:02:35.020 But there's more video of Joe Biden trying to sniff girls and get creepy with them.
00:02:41.760 I don't know if you've seen the latest.
00:02:43.280 But it's just as disturbing as you think it would be.
00:02:47.360 I don't know if it means anything, but it's creepy.
00:02:51.440 Here's my favorite story of the day.
00:02:54.880 Reportedly, CNN is going to release Jim Acosta.
00:02:58.660 So Jim Acosta will no longer be with CNN.
00:03:01.180 And also Jim Scuto, I guess he had some accident and some personal problems he's working through.
00:03:10.840 So he's working through some personal problems.
00:03:13.520 And Jim Acosta will be gone.
00:03:15.400 Now, here's the thing.
00:03:18.560 The reporting on the Jim Acosta leaving as well as the other changes of CNN.
00:03:24.800 Correct me if I'm wrong.
00:03:26.020 But CNN is telling us directly that they didn't used to be real news.
00:03:33.800 Am I wrong?
00:03:35.800 Am I interpreting too much in there?
00:03:39.120 Or would it be, is it fair to say?
00:03:42.480 Because I, obviously, I'm biased.
00:03:44.380 But it seems fair to say that they have now admitted they did not used to give you straight news.
00:03:52.040 Right?
00:03:53.140 So here's my question.
00:03:54.360 What do the people who are watching CNN admit that they were never real news, what do they think about all the opinions that they got from CNN?
00:04:06.480 Is there any realization that goes on there?
00:04:09.180 Do you think?
00:04:10.260 I don't think so.
00:04:11.980 You know what I think?
00:04:13.760 I think they say, what do you think they say?
00:04:16.000 Go ahead.
00:04:17.120 This will be your test to see if you can anticipate their cognitive dissonance.
00:04:21.080 What would CNN viewers say if you challenge them of the fact that it is now admitted and demonstrated that they were not watching real news?
00:04:31.520 Exactly.
00:04:35.840 They would say, well, it's not Fox News.
00:04:39.940 At least it's not as bad as Fox News, right?
00:04:42.260 That's what they would say.
00:04:43.540 That's where the cognitive dissonance would go.
00:04:47.420 Now, it's not my job to defend Fox News, but there's one thing that I always say that I think is worth saying.
00:04:52.560 Fox News does a better job of distinguishing between their opinion piece and their news piece.
00:05:01.780 I think I would stick by that statement.
00:05:04.940 I mean, if you see Hannity say something about Biden, don't you just put it in context?
00:05:12.540 It's Hannity.
00:05:13.940 It's Biden.
00:05:15.060 Hannity is going to say bad stuff about Biden.
00:05:17.020 The same as Acosta.
00:05:18.500 The problem was that Acosta was pretending to be news.
00:05:23.020 That's not cool.
00:05:24.720 That's not cool at all.
00:05:26.820 And I still don't know what Jake Tapper is supposed to be.
00:05:30.080 Does anybody know?
00:05:31.780 Is Jake Tapper news or opinion?
00:05:35.080 I actually don't know, and I've watched him for years.
00:05:38.160 What would you say?
00:05:39.620 Is he news or opinion?
00:05:42.720 Yeah, it's a little of both.
00:05:45.140 So, you can see why that model would be confusing.
00:05:48.500 So, I guess Chairman Xi, over there in China, opened up the CCP summit by announcing that they have full control of Hong Kong and Taiwan is next.
00:06:04.940 What?
00:06:07.980 What?
00:06:09.620 Taiwan is next.
00:06:10.940 Now, there's something strange going on with China, and it goes like this.
00:06:21.100 According to Peter Zeyan and some other reports, Biden's sanctions have completely destroyed the tech business in China.
00:06:31.320 Completely.
00:06:32.460 As in, the tech business in China is just going to have to shut down.
00:06:36.620 Because, you know, he did some sanctions with, I guess, some employees who are American over there.
00:06:43.300 They can't be over there and also be American or something.
00:06:47.500 But here's the thing.
00:06:48.640 Why is Peter Zeyan saying that the entire Chinese tech sector just got shut down, like actually just shut down, and it's not in the news?
00:07:01.100 What's going on?
00:07:03.460 Look for yourself.
00:07:05.720 How would that not be the biggest story in the world?
00:07:08.540 If that were true, it would be the biggest story in the world.
00:07:12.840 Would it not?
00:07:13.320 What would be a bigger story than that?
00:07:17.760 I can't think of anything.
00:07:19.440 Now, go check CNN and check Fox News.
00:07:23.260 This story doesn't exist.
00:07:25.540 It's not even a story.
00:07:28.500 So why is one person who I think is credible, I mean, I've been told he's credible,
00:07:34.460 why is one person saying the biggest thing in the world is happening right now,
00:07:38.000 and their biggest news sources are actually ignoring it?
00:07:43.320 Who is lying to us?
00:07:46.320 I can't tell.
00:07:47.540 Can you?
00:07:51.420 Peter Zeyan called third out.
00:07:54.520 He fell for a fake.
00:07:55.840 Okay, so we actually don't know what's going on here, right?
00:08:07.700 There's something gigantic happening with the news that we don't really have a grasp on at all.
00:08:16.280 Did you notice that the news is empty today, just sort of in general?
00:08:20.420 Well, there's no news today.
00:08:23.280 The entire news business just shut down like there's something big happening or coming.
00:08:29.220 Is everybody working on something new?
00:08:31.760 There's something...
00:08:33.060 I feel like there's some trouble brewing or something.
00:08:37.840 Is it just me?
00:08:40.620 Anyway.
00:08:41.120 If you were China, would you move on Taiwan now?
00:08:46.680 Well, if it's true that Biden just shut down your tech business,
00:08:52.680 aren't you going to have to go get some chip makers somewhere?
00:08:57.220 Did Biden just guarantee that China would have to conquer Taiwan to take care of the...
00:09:02.220 to capture their tech industry?
00:09:04.920 because they just lost their own tech industry thanks to Biden?
00:09:11.840 Right?
00:09:13.680 Well, what am I missing?
00:09:16.540 Because it feels like...
00:09:18.220 I mean, I don't know what China's options are.
00:09:20.380 I suppose they could try to get...
00:09:21.760 just get talent from other countries or something.
00:09:24.220 They could probably do that.
00:09:26.700 But isn't there incentive to take, you know,
00:09:29.940 control of a functioning tech center through the roof
00:09:34.520 because they can't really be a modern country without it?
00:09:37.960 It's almost a military requirement now to conquer Taiwan.
00:09:43.460 Now, I don't know anything about these, you know, military issues.
00:09:47.600 I'm just the person who's been right about everything.
00:09:51.660 Except...
00:09:52.380 except right...
00:09:53.220 I was definitely wrong about Russia invading Ukraine.
00:10:01.240 So, Saturday Night Live,
00:10:02.900 I didn't see it, but I read about it.
00:10:05.840 It sounded like they were really dunking on the Democrats
00:10:08.180 for the January 6th thing,
00:10:10.300 being a boring, useless waste of time.
00:10:13.920 Did anybody see Saturday Night Live?
00:10:16.560 And can you...
00:10:17.520 if you did, can you characterize it?
00:10:20.340 Were they unambiguously mocking the Democrats?
00:10:24.780 Or was it balanced?
00:10:26.920 Was it balanced?
00:10:27.820 It was negative.
00:10:30.880 No, I didn't...
00:10:32.760 I didn't watch it, so I'm asking you.
00:10:38.020 Yes, but without malice.
00:10:42.800 Okay.
00:10:43.640 Yeah, so they made fun of the January 6th thing
00:10:45.780 as just being bad theater, right?
00:10:48.900 Talk about theater.
00:10:50.020 So, Nancy Pelosi literally was being filmed for a documentary
00:10:56.080 while she ran around trying to look presidential
00:10:59.080 during January 6th.
00:11:01.240 Everything about January 6th looks like a fake...
00:11:05.780 Well, it doesn't look like.
00:11:07.040 It's completely fake.
00:11:07.980 The hearings are all just fake theater.
00:11:12.260 Our government is no longer serious,
00:11:14.820 if they ever were.
00:11:15.860 They're certainly not serious about doing the job of the people.
00:11:18.960 That much is clear.
00:11:21.620 All right, here's a story for you.
00:11:23.400 A horrible, horrible, tragic story.
00:11:27.160 There was a 17-year-old boy
00:11:29.340 in a new Miami high school,
00:11:32.080 and you will not believe the horrible thing
00:11:34.460 that happened to this young man.
00:11:36.160 And we'll probably take a moment of silence
00:11:41.060 after I read you this horrible, horrible, tragic story.
00:11:45.380 This victim, this victim...
00:11:48.160 Well, anyway, this poor 17-year-old boy
00:11:51.480 was victimized by a 31-year-old teacher's assistant
00:11:55.940 and softball coach who...
00:11:58.840 This is disgusting, but she had sex with him multiple times.
00:12:04.160 Multiple times.
00:12:06.160 That poor, poor boy.
00:12:08.880 Now, they don't...
00:12:10.020 He's underage, so...
00:12:11.060 They don't mention what kind of therapy
00:12:14.260 or medical treatment he's getting
00:12:15.780 to recover from his amazing sex.
00:12:19.120 But it can't be easy.
00:12:22.740 Can we take a moment of silence
00:12:24.200 for this poor child,
00:12:26.440 this poor 17-year-old boy who...
00:12:29.740 While this teacher's assistant and softball coach
00:12:33.220 was sucking his cock,
00:12:36.040 he was probably having one of the worst days of his life.
00:12:41.040 And I think that we need to
00:12:44.040 really take a moment of silence.
00:12:46.920 Okay, I think that's long enough.
00:12:54.380 That's good.
00:12:55.860 Thank you for that moment of silence.
00:12:58.940 All right, here's the real question.
00:13:01.660 Was the crime the crime,
00:13:05.620 or was the crime the way we treated the crime?
00:13:08.700 Which one was the crime?
00:13:11.920 Was the crime all the good sex they had together?
00:13:14.900 Because they did it a lot of times,
00:13:16.320 so therefore it couldn't have been bad.
00:13:18.720 Was the crime all the sex?
00:13:21.120 Or was the crime the fact that
00:13:22.840 their lives will be destroyed
00:13:25.020 because we're all fucking assholes?
00:13:28.600 Which is the crime?
00:13:30.700 Is it the crime that a technical violation occurred?
00:13:33.560 And of course, there was, you know...
00:13:35.880 I mean, usually these are about a power differential, right?
00:13:40.360 I mean, even though there's a...
00:13:41.740 You know, technically there's an underage boy here.
00:13:44.140 But usually it's about the power differential.
00:13:47.280 You tell me what the power differential is
00:13:49.740 of a 17-year-old boy
00:13:51.700 versus a teacher's assistant
00:13:53.680 who's a softball coach also.
00:13:56.460 Are you telling me the assistant, teacher, and softball coach
00:13:59.580 had power over the 17-year-old boy
00:14:02.060 who was probably a head taller than her?
00:14:04.540 No.
00:14:06.040 Not at all.
00:14:09.080 So, this is one where we really have to take a look at ourselves.
00:14:13.000 This is not a story about these two people.
00:14:15.660 This is a story about us sucking.
00:14:19.880 This is about everybody but the two people.
00:14:24.020 It looks like it's a story about these two people.
00:14:26.040 It's everybody but them.
00:14:27.780 They were the only two people
00:14:29.060 who should not be involved in this story.
00:14:30.860 We fucking suck.
00:14:34.380 We are assholes.
00:14:36.440 Like, just...
00:14:38.020 We are disgusting pieces of shit.
00:14:42.480 Just in case you wondered.
00:14:44.520 In case you wondered who you were.
00:14:47.080 I mean, I hate us.
00:14:49.220 I hate us because of this story.
00:14:50.900 I really do.
00:14:52.340 Now, if there was any real damage here,
00:14:54.200 then, you know, that's different.
00:14:55.360 But I don't think so.
00:14:57.060 I don't think so.
00:14:57.900 All right.
00:15:01.760 So, Elon Musk, I guess, got so much heat
00:15:05.360 for allegedly threatening to turn off Starlink in Ukraine.
00:15:11.100 He tweeted,
00:15:11.860 the hell with it.
00:15:12.920 Even though Starlink is still losing money
00:15:14.700 and other companies are getting billions of taxpayers' money,
00:15:18.120 we'll just keep funding Ukraine government for free.
00:15:20.740 It must be nice to be that rich.
00:15:25.440 I would love to be that rich
00:15:27.200 that you could say,
00:15:28.640 ah, $20 million a month.
00:15:30.860 Screw it.
00:15:31.580 I'll just pay the $20 million a month.
00:15:35.400 It's a tax write-off.
00:15:38.800 You can't be a follower of mine
00:15:41.840 and say stuff like that is a tax write-off.
00:15:44.480 You can't do that.
00:15:45.520 Don't make me stop and explain why.
00:15:51.320 All right.
00:15:52.380 It is a tax write-off.
00:15:54.240 But you don't make money by losing money.
00:15:59.380 So then I saw an exchange with Kim.com
00:16:01.980 and Elon Musk
00:16:03.260 where Kim.com was, you know,
00:16:05.900 encouraging Elon that everybody has to
00:16:08.040 try to make peace here.
00:16:10.560 And Elon said he's trying hard
00:16:13.280 but getting nowhere, apparently.
00:16:16.400 And let me ask you this.
00:16:18.460 How serious is it
00:16:19.900 when Elon Musk talks about
00:16:22.460 his own involvement
00:16:23.760 in trying to end the war?
00:16:26.120 I think it's pretty serious.
00:16:28.140 I think that he actually is
00:16:29.660 probably at least
00:16:32.300 20% of the equation.
00:16:35.820 Yeah, I think he would have
00:16:36.640 at least that much influence.
00:16:38.120 He can't do it alone.
00:16:39.080 But if things were, you know,
00:16:42.020 maybe teetering in one direction,
00:16:43.880 I think he could push it.
00:16:46.020 You know, I think if it was
00:16:46.820 on a balance point,
00:16:47.800 he could be the deciding vote.
00:16:49.960 You know, he does have the influence
00:16:51.320 to push things one way or another.
00:16:53.340 But let us game this out.
00:16:57.240 Number one,
00:16:59.120 I saw a
00:17:00.560 extended military explanation
00:17:03.720 of how Ukraine
00:17:05.520 made such a big gain
00:17:07.860 recently.
00:17:09.080 around Kyrgyzstan.
00:17:11.220 And,
00:17:11.760 was it around Kyrgyzstan?
00:17:13.560 No, but whatever big gain,
00:17:15.060 no, not around Kyrgyzstan.
00:17:17.120 It was about how they made
00:17:18.440 their recent big gains.
00:17:21.460 And it turns out
00:17:22.580 that it was a special case.
00:17:25.020 Did you know that?
00:17:25.820 So, the big gains that Ukraine made
00:17:30.080 were they made a big gamble
00:17:33.080 to do what's the name
00:17:36.020 of the military technique
00:17:37.160 where they go in fast
00:17:39.000 and they break through the lines.
00:17:42.300 They create as much chaos
00:17:43.540 and they find out how much defense there is
00:17:46.040 and then they retreat.
00:17:47.680 Thunder roll, yes.
00:17:49.060 It's called a thunder roll.
00:17:50.540 So, the thunder roll
00:17:52.680 is you take a small,
00:17:54.420 very fast unit
00:17:55.420 with some armor
00:17:56.280 and you blaze through the lines
00:17:59.760 and you get behind the lines
00:18:01.620 and you cause all confusion
00:18:03.180 and chaos
00:18:03.900 because then, you know,
00:18:05.340 it's hard for them to communicate
00:18:06.540 and, you know,
00:18:07.300 there's bullets
00:18:07.840 or at least there's people
00:18:10.100 on both sides of people.
00:18:11.640 So, it's supposed to sow confusion
00:18:14.400 and also find out
00:18:16.560 where you can attack best
00:18:18.740 and then they go in and attack.
00:18:21.020 Now, the requirement for that to work
00:18:24.480 is as follows.
00:18:26.660 You have to have a thin defensive line.
00:18:30.100 Thin defensive line.
00:18:31.540 Because otherwise,
00:18:32.380 the fast unit can't break through it
00:18:34.400 because they would reach, you know,
00:18:35.800 a level
00:18:36.280 and then there would be another level
00:18:37.580 and then there would be another level
00:18:38.760 and they couldn't do anything fast.
00:18:40.580 And the speed is what makes this work.
00:18:43.960 So, if you thought
00:18:46.440 that Ukraine's massive, unexpected victory,
00:18:50.720 you know, recently, a few weeks ago,
00:18:52.380 if you thought that was the beginning
00:18:53.940 of them rolling up the rest of those areas
00:18:56.400 and I wondered if that was true too,
00:18:59.560 it turns out they don't have
00:19:01.080 that special case anywhere else
00:19:02.700 because part of what made it work
00:19:05.860 is they faked Russia
00:19:07.600 into fortifying a different place.
00:19:10.580 But now they would have to attack
00:19:12.600 that different place
00:19:13.640 and that place does have defensive lines.
00:19:16.620 So, it doesn't mean that Ukraine won't succeed.
00:19:20.440 It does mean they can't do it the same way
00:19:22.740 and almost certainly not as fast.
00:19:26.960 Right?
00:19:27.140 So, now, I wouldn't say that this either
00:19:31.600 is the final word
00:19:33.240 and now we know everything that's going to happen, right?
00:19:35.760 But, it is true
00:19:38.060 that whatever we saw up to this point
00:19:40.560 does not tell you what happens next.
00:19:43.520 So, let's game this out.
00:19:47.500 When was the last time you heard
00:19:49.060 a report from the war?
00:19:51.960 I haven't heard one in a few days.
00:19:56.640 Nothing important, right?
00:19:59.020 Some stuff blows up.
00:20:00.480 But nothing important.
00:20:02.180 Like, no, it doesn't seem like
00:20:03.420 any territory has changed sides, right?
00:20:05.280 In a few days.
00:20:06.460 I don't know that it will.
00:20:09.160 I don't know that it will.
00:20:10.620 But they're going to keep fighting.
00:20:11.840 So, what happens if no territory is changing sides
00:20:16.660 and the fighting is continuing?
00:20:18.860 Well, Putin will continue to degrade things in Ukraine.
00:20:23.840 But let me ask you this.
00:20:26.580 Why is his degrading of things in Ukraine
00:20:30.700 sort of muted?
00:20:33.880 In other words,
00:20:34.900 it doesn't seem to be an all-day-long assault.
00:20:38.380 It seems like Putin launches some stuff
00:20:41.060 and, you know,
00:20:42.560 destroys some infrastructure.
00:20:44.360 But then they sort of, you know,
00:20:45.560 next day they do some more.
00:20:47.940 And the speculation is that Putin's out of ammo.
00:20:52.480 And that the reason there's not
00:20:53.680 a sustained attack on the infrastructure of Ukraine
00:20:56.320 is that he can't do it.
00:20:58.100 He doesn't have enough accurate missiles.
00:21:01.520 And it's the accurate stuff he needs.
00:21:05.300 Right?
00:21:07.700 Here's something I ask you.
00:21:11.060 Just if you wonder
00:21:12.600 how gullible you are to propaganda.
00:21:16.440 Here are two facts
00:21:17.840 that are reported in the war
00:21:19.320 and I never see anybody connect them.
00:21:22.280 And here are the two facts.
00:21:24.680 The Russians are targeting,
00:21:26.520 intentionally targeting,
00:21:28.240 civilian residential areas.
00:21:32.040 True?
00:21:33.040 True or false?
00:21:34.400 True or false?
00:21:35.220 The Russians are intentionally targeting residential areas.
00:21:40.600 Well, the news says that.
00:21:42.760 The news says they're intentionally targeting residential areas.
00:21:46.500 How could that not be true?
00:21:48.840 All right, here's the other thing that the news says.
00:21:51.600 The Russian missiles and artillery are not accurate.
00:21:55.180 True?
00:21:56.180 True?
00:21:57.060 True or false?
00:21:59.620 The Russians have some accurate stuff,
00:22:01.500 but most of it is the inaccurate stuff.
00:22:04.100 So the news is telling you two things.
00:22:06.540 They're intentionally targeting these residential areas,
00:22:11.060 and their weapons are super inaccurate.
00:22:16.960 Pick one, right?
00:22:20.580 Now, it could be that they're intentionally targeting residential areas.
00:22:25.200 I'm not poo-pooing that,
00:22:27.980 because there's some history of that.
00:22:29.940 You know, some say that is the Russian military doctrine.
00:22:34.680 But I think that's not the military doctrine you use
00:22:39.400 when you're attacking your own countrymen, is it?
00:22:43.640 I mean, it would be one thing to be attacking the Chechens
00:22:46.140 or somebody who doesn't look like you.
00:22:48.940 You know what I'm talking about?
00:22:50.980 But the Ukrainians and the Russians,
00:22:52.720 they look like each other.
00:22:54.280 I don't know.
00:22:55.360 I don't know if you want to destroy
00:22:57.740 all the residential areas in Ukraine
00:22:59.920 and then hope to live together in harmony.
00:23:02.720 Is that going to happen?
00:23:05.260 I don't know.
00:23:08.360 So here's what I think is going to happen.
00:23:12.000 The fighting in Ukraine will continue for a while,
00:23:15.500 and there'll be some horrors and tragedies,
00:23:19.120 but nothing's going to happen.
00:23:21.900 There won't be any major changing of hands,
00:23:25.140 maybe a little bit,
00:23:26.220 but not any large-scale changing of hands.
00:23:29.700 At that point,
00:23:31.640 it's also going to look like the only way that would happen
00:23:34.380 is if America massively increased the military assets of Ukraine,
00:23:40.800 which I don't think will do,
00:23:43.420 at least not enough for them to capture the rest of those territories.
00:23:46.340 Or it could be that we have some intelligence
00:23:53.400 that says the Russians are just going to run out of assets.
00:23:58.180 I mean, it could be that the Russians just run out of stuff,
00:24:01.020 and they just can't defend it anymore.
00:24:02.460 So what do you think is going to be more likely?
00:24:06.380 Permanent nothing?
00:24:11.080 Nobody goes anywhere?
00:24:12.480 Or do you think Russia will run out of stuff?
00:24:15.320 Because I think they would run out before we would run out.
00:24:18.660 Because it looks like there's no end
00:24:19.960 to how much we're willing to borrow to give them.
00:24:21.840 So, my prediction remains the same.
00:24:32.800 That there will be no genuine peace talks
00:24:35.580 until there's a genuine nuclear threat.
00:24:39.500 Now, you can say,
00:24:40.300 we already have a nuclear threat,
00:24:41.800 but I would say, no, we don't.
00:24:43.700 No, we have talk.
00:24:45.700 So far, we just have talk.
00:24:47.360 I don't actually feel the threat yet.
00:24:50.320 Do you?
00:24:51.720 I mean, I feel that it could become a threat.
00:24:54.700 And that's very real.
00:24:56.040 So I'm not saying there's nothing real there.
00:24:58.320 I'm saying that I don't feel it yet.
00:25:00.820 And I also don't think that Ukraine or Russia
00:25:03.460 or the United States feels it yet.
00:25:06.120 But we will.
00:25:08.240 I think there is no way
00:25:09.980 that we don't get to the brink of nuclear war.
00:25:14.400 What would stop it?
00:25:15.540 There's no way that they're going to just stop
00:25:18.240 and make a peace deal, right?
00:25:21.080 Does anybody think that Russia
00:25:23.240 is on the verge of making a peace deal?
00:25:25.960 No.
00:25:27.560 No.
00:25:28.360 Not unless things are much worse there than we think,
00:25:31.180 which is possible.
00:25:32.480 It's possible that things in Russia
00:25:33.820 are much worse than we think.
00:25:35.900 Because these things can,
00:25:37.640 you know, they can have a tipping point
00:25:39.120 where everything looks good until it doesn't.
00:25:41.880 We could be really close to the tipping point in Russia
00:25:44.600 but you don't know.
00:25:47.140 You could also not be anywhere near it.
00:25:51.740 Yeah.
00:25:52.940 So,
00:25:53.600 the most likely outcome
00:25:55.540 is that we will go to the brink of nuclear war
00:25:58.420 and then get serious.
00:26:00.980 But how in the world
00:26:02.440 would they ever decide
00:26:03.480 who owns those disputed territories?
00:26:05.740 I say that the future
00:26:09.000 is pretty much
00:26:10.580 written already.
00:26:12.480 And the future is that
00:26:13.980 neither Russia nor Ukraine
00:26:16.160 is going to be able to own those territories.
00:26:20.620 That's what I say.
00:26:21.980 Because it's the only thing that could work.
00:26:24.960 It would make both countries unhappy.
00:26:27.800 It would make both countries unhappy.
00:26:29.660 but
00:26:32.040 it's better than the alternatives.
00:26:34.740 Because the alternative is
00:26:35.960 they just keep fighting forever.
00:26:37.940 Because nobody's going to win.
00:26:39.420 And if they won,
00:26:40.300 the other side would just
00:26:41.500 shell them forever
00:26:42.340 or it would be a terrorist nightmare.
00:26:45.720 Yeah.
00:26:45.940 I'm surprised anybody lives there.
00:26:49.660 Five Ukrainians.
00:26:51.060 Yeah, it would be like
00:26:51.620 five little Ukrainians.
00:26:53.000 But if they were demilitarized,
00:26:55.660 that could work.
00:26:57.260 Because I don't see any argument
00:26:59.920 for why each of those
00:27:01.020 disputed little territories
00:27:02.380 should have its own military.
00:27:05.140 Because it wouldn't have a military
00:27:06.680 that could defend against
00:27:07.860 either Ukraine or Russia
00:27:09.320 on its own.
00:27:10.900 So there's no point
00:27:11.900 in having any military at all.
00:27:14.020 They can't win any wars.
00:27:16.560 They're not going to discourage anybody.
00:27:24.220 Yeah.
00:27:25.360 Would you live there?
00:27:26.240 I would not.
00:27:27.260 All right.
00:27:30.500 So I think somebody,
00:27:31.600 some third party like the UN
00:27:33.080 or somebody is going to have to step in
00:27:34.540 and run those disputed territories
00:27:37.640 and there's no other way it can go.
00:27:40.100 So that's my prediction.
00:27:42.380 There's no other way it can go.
00:27:46.160 Does anybody want to give me
00:27:47.600 an alternative prediction?
00:27:50.720 But you have to make the case
00:27:52.180 that it could go in that direction.
00:27:54.240 Like it's actually possible.
00:27:55.480 What would it be?
00:27:57.940 Anybody?
00:27:58.900 Let's see your predictions
00:28:00.200 in the comments.
00:28:05.900 What do you think?
00:28:06.820 Russia has a substantial arms-making capacity.
00:28:15.500 So they can continue making arms,
00:28:18.700 but that's only until they're, you know,
00:28:22.080 anything that requires technology breaks.
00:28:25.760 Making weapons requires technology,
00:28:28.040 and their technology structure
00:28:29.440 we're decapping.
00:28:31.140 So I don't know.
00:28:38.840 All right.
00:28:39.380 So let's take the alternative possibilities.
00:28:43.460 All right.
00:28:43.740 Possibility one,
00:28:44.860 Ukraine wins outright.
00:28:47.540 Possible or no?
00:28:48.380 And Russia says,
00:28:50.560 ah, darn it, we tried,
00:28:52.000 but I guess we'll just stop
00:28:53.720 trying to make war here.
00:28:56.580 All right.
00:28:57.160 I say that's not likely.
00:29:00.020 So how about Russia wins outright,
00:29:02.540 and Ukraine just says,
00:29:03.680 you know,
00:29:04.840 okay, you keep these territories.
00:29:07.420 How about that?
00:29:09.860 Nope.
00:29:11.000 No.
00:29:12.160 How about they split them?
00:29:13.720 How about they say,
00:29:16.200 well, all these territories are disputed,
00:29:18.800 but some of these
00:29:19.820 lean a little Ukrainian,
00:29:21.640 you know, the population does.
00:29:22.860 Some leads a little Russian.
00:29:24.220 We'll just split them down the middle
00:29:25.420 and call it good.
00:29:26.400 How about that?
00:29:28.020 Nope.
00:29:29.000 I don't think so.
00:29:29.920 Because I don't think we have
00:29:30.860 the right leaders
00:29:31.640 that would get you
00:29:32.380 to that kind of a result.
00:29:34.780 So if neither side can win,
00:29:37.480 militarily or by negotiating,
00:29:41.580 the only thing that's left
00:29:43.460 is that somebody else
00:29:44.980 is going to have to run
00:29:45.660 those countries
00:29:46.260 or you have a permanent war
00:29:47.720 and we're not going to settle
00:29:49.300 for a permanent war.
00:29:55.220 Yeah.
00:29:56.160 Yeah.
00:29:57.000 So
00:29:57.340 has anybody except me
00:30:01.880 floated the idea
00:30:03.300 of somebody who's not Ukraine
00:30:05.060 and not Russia
00:30:05.780 running those disputed territories?
00:30:09.260 Because it's going to happen.
00:30:11.720 Can anybody give me a confirmation?
00:30:13.460 Has anybody anywhere
00:30:15.020 mentioned
00:30:16.660 you're saying Elon,
00:30:21.020 but he didn't do that, did he?
00:30:22.620 We wouldn't know about that.
00:30:26.220 But anybody in the public realm?
00:30:32.340 Yeah, I don't think Elon must.
00:30:35.040 Elon said vote to decide,
00:30:37.320 but voting to decide
00:30:38.480 is deciding, you know,
00:30:39.740 which of the big entities
00:30:40.820 you go to.
00:30:43.440 I mean, that would work.
00:30:46.760 You know, if they had,
00:30:47.940 if they had a vote
00:30:48.680 that was credible,
00:30:50.040 if they had a vote
00:30:52.260 that was credible,
00:30:54.120 yeah.
00:30:57.260 But that still gives you
00:30:58.600 a winner and a loser,
00:30:59.640 doesn't it?
00:31:00.100 Suppose you were Russia
00:31:03.560 and you already knew
00:31:05.280 which way that people
00:31:06.120 would vote.
00:31:06.720 I don't know which way
00:31:07.440 would they vote, actually.
00:31:08.900 But suppose you knew
00:31:09.760 and you knew it was going
00:31:11.200 to go the other way.
00:31:12.940 Would you agree to the vote?
00:31:14.740 See, here's the problem
00:31:15.540 with the vote.
00:31:16.820 Here's the problem
00:31:17.440 with the vote.
00:31:19.180 Probably both Russia
00:31:20.720 and Ukraine
00:31:21.200 think they know
00:31:22.260 which way the vote
00:31:23.100 would go.
00:31:23.460 I think the vote
00:31:25.280 would only work
00:31:26.040 if you genuinely
00:31:26.880 didn't know
00:31:27.520 which way the vote
00:31:28.200 would go.
00:31:29.260 Does anybody agree
00:31:30.140 with that?
00:31:31.740 Would you agree
00:31:32.500 with the statement
00:31:33.140 that no one
00:31:34.460 will agree to a vote
00:31:35.760 if you know
00:31:36.640 which way it's going
00:31:37.280 to go?
00:31:38.180 Because that means
00:31:38.740 one side is agreeing
00:31:40.480 to lose.
00:31:42.100 Who would agree
00:31:42.640 to lose?
00:31:45.140 So I think
00:31:45.840 they can't do that.
00:31:47.080 I think they have
00:31:47.740 to do,
00:31:48.260 I think they have
00:31:48.860 to create a situation
00:31:49.940 in which they both
00:31:51.500 don't know
00:31:51.960 the outcome.
00:31:53.460 And that will be
00:31:54.020 vital to the outcome.
00:31:55.760 You have to genuinely
00:31:57.280 not know
00:31:57.940 how it's going
00:31:58.480 to turn out.
00:31:59.700 And that's why
00:32:00.120 having a third party
00:32:01.100 run it
00:32:01.660 until they get up
00:32:03.760 on their feet
00:32:04.380 and decide
00:32:05.420 who they want to be,
00:32:06.840 I think that's
00:32:07.580 the only way to go.
00:32:09.920 I think.
00:32:12.200 So that's my prediction.
00:32:14.000 So my prediction
00:32:14.800 is that
00:32:15.540 today I'm the only
00:32:18.320 person talking
00:32:19.120 about those
00:32:19.860 disputed territories
00:32:21.020 being independently
00:32:22.700 run
00:32:23.580 and
00:32:25.000 I predict
00:32:27.640 that in a month
00:32:28.560 it will be
00:32:30.160 a common topic.
00:32:31.580 Does anybody
00:32:32.220 want to bet?
00:32:33.720 In a month
00:32:34.480 it will be
00:32:34.900 a common topic
00:32:36.120 that one of the
00:32:37.760 options
00:32:38.200 is some kind
00:32:39.280 of an independent
00:32:40.120 country situation.
00:32:44.220 What do you say?
00:32:46.520 Possible?
00:32:47.760 Just the conversation.
00:32:48.820 I'm not saying
00:32:49.900 it's going to
00:32:50.280 happen in a month.
00:32:51.760 I'm going to say
00:32:52.620 that that conversation
00:32:54.160 will be a common
00:32:55.080 conversation in a month.
00:32:57.560 All right.
00:32:58.680 We'll see.
00:33:04.640 I'm really curious
00:33:05.740 whether Biden
00:33:06.400 really did
00:33:07.020 end the Chinese
00:33:08.020 tech sector
00:33:09.400 and that the news
00:33:10.940 decided not to
00:33:11.800 report it.
00:33:13.460 Like, I don't know
00:33:14.020 what's going on today.
00:33:15.360 That is really
00:33:16.180 confusing.
00:33:16.640 All right.
00:33:23.880 What do you think
00:33:24.820 Elon Musk
00:33:25.660 should do
00:33:26.060 with Starlink?
00:33:28.600 Do you think
00:33:29.400 Musk just needs
00:33:30.500 to run
00:33:30.920 Starlink
00:33:31.440 and let it go?
00:33:33.160 Now, one thing
00:33:34.140 that is worth
00:33:35.680 mentioning,
00:33:36.940 do you have any
00:33:37.520 idea how much
00:33:38.240 money he could
00:33:38.780 make on Starlink
00:33:39.620 once that's all
00:33:41.560 up and working?
00:33:42.160 Do you have any
00:33:44.160 idea how much
00:33:46.900 money Starlink
00:33:48.240 could make?
00:33:49.400 It's a replacement
00:33:50.300 for the whole
00:33:50.840 internet, basically.
00:33:52.260 Or at least the
00:33:53.460 transmission part.
00:33:54.400 people, yeah, why
00:34:06.680 can't they get paid
00:34:07.380 like everyone else?
00:34:10.840 I'll call it a
00:34:11.720 mistake.
00:34:14.860 But he made the
00:34:15.860 mistake of giving it
00:34:16.720 to him for free
00:34:17.520 before he signed
00:34:19.160 a deal.
00:34:20.800 And if you do
00:34:21.960 that, then people
00:34:22.620 say, well, why
00:34:23.380 should I sign the
00:34:23.960 deal?
00:34:24.160 I'm getting the
00:34:24.740 milk for free.
00:34:26.880 It only works
00:34:27.700 with a stationary
00:34:28.440 reception, right?
00:34:29.780 So you need a
00:34:30.240 little dish.
00:34:31.860 That's true.
00:34:32.620 So it's never
00:34:33.100 going to, so that
00:34:35.100 by definition, that
00:34:36.200 means it's never
00:34:36.860 going to be in a
00:34:37.380 car, right?
00:34:41.700 So your car will
00:34:42.720 never be able to
00:34:43.480 hone in on the
00:34:44.320 satellites.
00:34:45.300 There's so many
00:34:46.100 of them, though.
00:34:46.700 You can't
00:34:47.100 automatically find
00:34:47.960 one.
00:34:48.940 I don't know.
00:34:51.200 It works for
00:34:52.060 mobile platforms,
00:34:52.940 somebody says.
00:34:53.400 It's on boats.
00:34:56.260 Oh, there is a
00:34:57.020 mobile device.
00:34:57.780 Okay.
00:34:58.860 So some here are
00:34:59.920 saying it is
00:35:00.440 mobile and some
00:35:01.100 are saying not.
00:35:02.640 He has a flat
00:35:03.400 version.
00:35:07.780 All right.
00:35:08.320 You could put a
00:35:08.840 receiver in a car.
00:35:12.620 All right.
00:35:13.120 Yeah, you know, I
00:35:17.420 would be worried if
00:35:18.280 I were Elon Musk.
00:35:20.500 I don't think he
00:35:21.600 wants to be in a
00:35:22.200 position that he's
00:35:23.340 the one who caused
00:35:24.320 a peace, if it's
00:35:26.600 one that one side
00:35:27.800 doesn't like.
00:35:32.580 The laser
00:35:33.680 inter-satellite links
00:35:34.680 aren't turned on.
00:35:35.860 Okay.
00:35:42.240 Oh.
00:35:48.820 Is China
00:35:49.720 is with what?
00:35:50.880 I'm sorry.
00:35:56.120 Monkey brains.
00:35:57.260 What?
00:36:00.240 All right.
00:36:00.880 It's a weird
00:36:03.900 day in the
00:36:04.620 news, like I
00:36:05.480 said, because
00:36:06.660 there's just not
00:36:07.200 much happening
00:36:07.740 there.
00:36:08.440 I think I
00:36:08.980 probably won't go
00:36:09.600 too long today
00:36:10.300 because I don't
00:36:11.080 have anything else
00:36:11.720 to talk about.
00:36:12.520 Is there anything
00:36:12.900 I'm missing?
00:36:14.360 Oh, here's one
00:36:15.260 thing I wanted to
00:36:15.880 mention.
00:36:16.340 I was saying
00:36:17.080 today, you've
00:36:18.440 seen this a bunch
00:36:19.080 of times, the
00:36:20.260 list of all the
00:36:21.640 Trump business
00:36:23.200 failures.
00:36:24.260 Have you seen
00:36:24.960 that on the
00:36:25.500 internet?
00:36:25.800 I think there
00:36:26.660 are like 14
00:36:27.480 or 15 of
00:36:28.240 them or
00:36:28.500 something.
00:36:29.900 And so
00:36:31.680 it's everything
00:36:32.040 from Trump
00:36:32.640 stakes to
00:36:33.420 Trump this
00:36:34.040 and Trump
00:36:34.920 airlines and
00:36:35.660 stuff like
00:36:36.020 that.
00:36:37.260 But I don't
00:36:38.460 think people
00:36:38.920 understand that
00:36:39.740 some number of
00:36:41.060 those businesses
00:36:41.760 were licensing
00:36:43.400 deals.
00:36:45.020 And the way
00:36:45.300 a licensing deal
00:36:46.200 is, if that's
00:36:48.080 what they were,
00:36:48.520 and I think
00:36:48.860 they were,
00:36:49.940 if it's a
00:36:50.520 licensing deal,
00:36:51.860 then Trump
00:36:52.340 sells his name
00:36:53.340 but he's not
00:36:54.780 involved in the
00:36:55.480 business, he
00:36:56.700 just sells his
00:36:57.320 name.
00:36:58.320 So if the
00:36:58.980 business fails,
00:37:00.700 Trump still
00:37:01.140 makes money
00:37:01.680 because he
00:37:02.260 sold his
00:37:02.660 name and he
00:37:03.780 doesn't have
00:37:04.160 to give it
00:37:04.520 back.
00:37:05.480 So he's not
00:37:06.140 on the hook
00:37:07.020 for any debt
00:37:08.700 that they
00:37:09.080 cause or
00:37:09.620 anything else.
00:37:10.740 So when I
00:37:11.560 was doing a
00:37:12.560 lot of
00:37:12.780 licensing for
00:37:13.500 Dilbert, in
00:37:15.680 the frothiest
00:37:17.220 time for the
00:37:18.080 Dilbert product,
00:37:19.920 licensees were
00:37:20.640 coming from
00:37:21.240 everywhere and
00:37:22.100 saying, can we
00:37:23.040 please give you
00:37:23.740 money?
00:37:24.040 money and
00:37:25.560 that's it.
00:37:27.800 You just have
00:37:28.580 to take our
00:37:29.060 money and then
00:37:29.740 we can use
00:37:30.320 Dilbert on a
00:37:30.920 product.
00:37:31.840 And I would
00:37:32.260 look at the
00:37:32.660 product and
00:37:33.660 their business
00:37:34.500 plan and I
00:37:35.140 would say,
00:37:35.620 there's no way
00:37:36.420 anybody's going
00:37:37.220 to buy that.
00:37:38.800 It would be
00:37:39.220 like Dilbert
00:37:39.860 pajamas and
00:37:40.740 stuff.
00:37:41.360 And I'd look
00:37:41.700 at it and say,
00:37:42.220 all right,
00:37:43.360 you're going to
00:37:43.880 sell like six
00:37:45.300 Dilbert pajamas.
00:37:47.420 But they were
00:37:48.080 very hard to do
00:37:48.920 it and it
00:37:49.340 wasn't up to
00:37:50.980 me.
00:37:51.220 So they
00:37:52.580 would say,
00:37:53.160 can we give
00:37:53.640 you money and
00:37:54.660 we'll take all
00:37:55.280 the risk and
00:37:56.480 there'll be no
00:37:57.380 consequence to
00:37:58.220 you.
00:37:58.960 If it doesn't
00:37:59.820 work, nobody's
00:38:01.200 even going to
00:38:01.640 notice, just
00:38:02.480 there won't be
00:38:03.000 any pajamas.
00:38:04.420 And so I
00:38:04.860 would take their
00:38:05.380 money and I
00:38:06.720 would be done.
00:38:08.260 I'd be done.
00:38:09.120 There's no more
00:38:09.840 work on my part.
00:38:10.900 I don't even know
00:38:11.520 how the business
00:38:12.080 goes.
00:38:12.780 And then that
00:38:13.400 business fails.
00:38:15.300 Well, if I were
00:38:16.240 Trump, I would get
00:38:16.960 blamed for that.
00:38:17.740 But why would
00:38:19.740 Trump be blamed
00:38:20.760 for licensing
00:38:22.300 his name, taking
00:38:23.300 his money, putting
00:38:24.080 it in the bank,
00:38:25.700 completely done,
00:38:27.820 and then somebody
00:38:28.520 else's business
00:38:29.420 doesn't work?
00:38:31.400 Licensing is a
00:38:34.080 business that, at
00:38:36.080 least the kind of
00:38:37.340 licensing guy was
00:38:38.120 in and probably
00:38:38.780 him too, it's the
00:38:40.440 kind of business
00:38:41.000 where most of the
00:38:42.140 companies should
00:38:42.820 fail.
00:38:44.380 And the people
00:38:45.160 who are tweeting
00:38:46.000 these lists around
00:38:46.700 don't realize that.
00:38:47.740 Trump was always
00:38:50.340 in the business
00:38:51.180 of high-risk
00:38:59.920 things that he
00:39:02.240 controlled his
00:39:03.580 downside on.
00:39:05.100 So he had a
00:39:06.380 potentially, you
00:39:07.200 know, a high
00:39:07.660 gain, but he
00:39:09.560 couldn't go any
00:39:10.120 lower than, let's
00:39:10.940 say, you know,
00:39:11.840 bankruptcy or
00:39:12.700 whatever.
00:39:13.380 So he had a, his
00:39:14.240 downside was capped.
00:39:16.080 But his upside
00:39:17.020 wasn't.
00:39:17.880 So he kept doing
00:39:18.560 high-risk things
00:39:19.440 until something
00:39:20.040 paid off and he
00:39:21.340 became president of
00:39:22.200 the United States.
00:39:24.260 Yeah.
00:39:24.660 Some of the
00:39:25.180 businesses were
00:39:25.840 definitely his.
00:39:26.540 The casinos, as
00:39:27.740 you mentioned.
00:39:28.760 Yeah.
00:39:29.100 The casinos were
00:39:29.900 his.
00:39:31.400 But I doubt the
00:39:32.240 airline was.
00:39:34.180 Somebody do a
00:39:34.800 fact check.
00:39:35.380 Was Trump
00:39:35.860 Airlines a
00:39:37.380 licensing deal?
00:39:38.960 Probably was,
00:39:39.860 right?
00:39:40.080 Yeah.
00:39:40.160 Some Trump
00:39:44.920 towers are
00:39:45.500 licensed, if
00:39:46.920 not all, at
00:39:48.540 this point.
00:39:49.120 I think at this
00:39:49.640 point they're
00:39:49.960 probably all
00:39:50.400 licensed, but I
00:39:51.460 don't know.
00:39:52.380 Don't know for
00:39:53.220 sure.
00:39:54.220 He owned the
00:39:54.820 airlines?
00:39:57.860 But I'll bet he
00:39:58.740 protected his
00:39:59.480 downside.
00:40:01.300 Yeah.
00:40:01.740 Okay.
00:40:03.080 Anyway, so I'd
00:40:04.620 like to see a list
00:40:05.520 of which of those
00:40:06.300 failures were
00:40:07.020 actually licensing
00:40:07.800 deals and which
00:40:08.540 weren't.
00:40:08.780 But in any
00:40:09.800 case, he wasn't
00:40:10.460 managing any of
00:40:11.280 them.
00:40:12.820 We all agree he
00:40:13.820 wasn't managing
00:40:14.520 any of that,
00:40:15.040 right?
00:40:16.360 Do you know
00:40:16.920 what the best
00:40:18.320 explanation for
00:40:19.300 Trump University
00:40:20.240 was?
00:40:21.840 I gave you this
00:40:22.800 a long time
00:40:23.300 ago.
00:40:25.480 The best
00:40:26.240 explanation for
00:40:27.020 Trump University
00:40:27.800 is that Trump
00:40:29.420 licensed his
00:40:30.160 name and he
00:40:31.880 trusted the
00:40:32.580 people who ran
00:40:33.280 it to do it
00:40:34.540 right.
00:40:35.600 And they
00:40:35.960 didn't.
00:40:37.640 And maybe
00:40:38.540 somebody told
00:40:39.180 him about
00:40:39.600 it, but it
00:40:40.000 just wasn't
00:40:40.440 his top
00:40:40.800 priority.
00:40:42.080 Maybe he
00:40:43.040 should have
00:40:43.300 followed up and
00:40:43.960 maybe he should
00:40:44.440 have done
00:40:44.700 something about
00:40:45.280 it.
00:40:46.080 But if you
00:40:47.640 look at all
00:40:48.200 the things that
00:40:48.740 have his name
00:40:49.240 on it, he
00:40:50.540 couldn't have
00:40:50.940 possibly managed
00:40:52.060 all that stuff.
00:40:53.240 And he
00:40:53.700 couldn't have
00:40:54.080 possibly been
00:40:54.740 interested in the
00:40:55.660 details of those
00:40:57.180 courses.
00:40:58.140 Do you think he
00:40:58.700 really looked at
00:40:59.380 the curriculum
00:41:00.940 before he put
00:41:01.800 his name on
00:41:02.320 it?
00:41:03.420 Maybe skimmed
00:41:04.360 it?
00:41:05.520 Maybe skimmed
00:41:06.340 it?
00:41:08.120 Yeah.
00:41:14.220 Yeah, whether
00:41:15.240 he had an
00:41:15.760 ownership stake or
00:41:16.900 just a licensing
00:41:17.820 stake, in
00:41:19.400 either case, it's
00:41:20.420 very unlikely he
00:41:21.340 knew what was
00:41:21.860 going on because
00:41:22.840 he had too
00:41:23.820 much of a
00:41:24.420 business enterprise
00:41:26.280 at that point.
00:41:27.680 All right.
00:41:28.920 That's all I
00:41:29.760 got.
00:41:30.180 Is there
00:41:30.380 anything else?
00:41:32.900 Anything I
00:41:33.520 haven't talked
00:41:33.880 about?
00:41:36.040 No, I just
00:41:36.760 got allergies.
00:41:38.160 It sounds
00:41:38.620 like I'm
00:41:38.980 catching a
00:41:39.440 cold.
00:41:42.380 Oh, the
00:41:42.960 California
00:41:43.440 Bill 20
00:41:45.660 98.
00:41:48.340 So 20
00:41:49.180 98 would,
00:41:51.840 all right,
00:41:52.380 we're going to
00:41:52.620 have to talk
00:41:53.080 about this.
00:41:53.580 This might
00:41:53.900 not go the
00:41:54.400 way you
00:41:54.700 thought.
00:41:56.060 So
00:41:56.420 California
00:41:56.920 Bill 20
00:41:57.520 98, if I
00:41:58.340 understand it
00:41:58.920 correctly,
00:42:00.540 would require
00:42:02.680 that doctors
00:42:03.340 only talk in
00:42:04.400 the approved
00:42:05.000 way about
00:42:06.620 the pandemic
00:42:07.480 or was it
00:42:08.940 in general?
00:42:10.780 I think it
00:42:11.400 might have
00:42:11.640 been more
00:42:11.960 generalized than
00:42:12.660 that.
00:42:13.380 But the idea
00:42:13.920 is that if
00:42:14.420 you're a doctor
00:42:14.920 you couldn't
00:42:15.480 just, yeah,
00:42:17.060 it's generalized.
00:42:18.280 If you're a
00:42:19.020 doctor you
00:42:19.460 couldn't just
00:42:19.940 be making up
00:42:20.620 stuff that
00:42:21.840 wasn't sort
00:42:23.660 of approved
00:42:25.320 medical narrative.
00:42:27.620 I don't know
00:42:28.220 the details of
00:42:28.900 that.
00:42:29.100 But you
00:42:30.800 saw how
00:42:31.220 hard it
00:42:31.480 was for
00:42:31.800 me to
00:42:32.080 just describe
00:42:32.820 it?
00:42:34.520 Doesn't
00:42:35.040 that mean
00:42:35.960 that it
00:42:36.360 would be
00:42:36.620 hard to
00:42:37.020 decide what
00:42:37.560 the narrative
00:42:38.020 would be?
00:42:39.600 Like how
00:42:40.040 would you
00:42:40.320 decide what
00:42:40.900 is approved
00:42:41.960 and what's
00:42:42.660 not?
00:42:43.540 So without
00:42:44.200 knowing anything
00:42:44.980 about it,
00:42:45.920 you automatically
00:42:46.820 could know
00:42:47.660 it would be
00:42:49.040 pretty hard
00:42:49.640 to decide
00:42:50.760 what was a
00:42:52.420 violation and
00:42:53.080 what wasn't.
00:42:53.680 Now, let
00:42:56.440 me ask you
00:42:56.920 this.
00:42:58.480 Suppose it's
00:42:59.240 a toss-up
00:43:00.220 situation and
00:43:01.200 the experts
00:43:03.660 disagree.
00:43:05.600 In that
00:43:06.000 case, is it
00:43:06.640 the worst
00:43:07.040 thing in the
00:43:07.440 world if
00:43:07.900 your doctor
00:43:08.460 departs the
00:43:09.460 official narrative
00:43:10.800 because the
00:43:11.320 experts disagree?
00:43:13.100 Well, in that
00:43:13.620 case, you
00:43:13.980 could say to
00:43:14.400 yourself, no,
00:43:15.320 it's between
00:43:16.620 me and my
00:43:17.080 doctor.
00:43:17.580 You could
00:43:17.840 make that
00:43:18.200 argument.
00:43:19.360 But what
00:43:19.800 if the
00:43:22.420 actual risk
00:43:23.320 of doing it
00:43:23.900 wrong is
00:43:24.500 just really
00:43:26.480 bad?
00:43:28.800 It's a
00:43:29.420 little bit
00:43:29.780 sort of a
00:43:30.620 free speech
00:43:31.200 problem,
00:43:31.680 isn't it?
00:43:34.500 Let me
00:43:35.280 back up
00:43:35.740 here.
00:43:36.620 All right.
00:43:37.500 How many
00:43:37.900 of you
00:43:38.260 believe in
00:43:38.920 unrestricted
00:43:39.680 free speech?
00:43:41.780 Everybody?
00:43:43.260 We're all on
00:43:44.060 that side,
00:43:44.500 right?
00:43:44.680 We all want
00:43:45.180 unrestricted
00:43:45.860 free speech.
00:43:46.980 But most
00:43:48.140 of you would
00:43:48.600 agree that
00:43:49.960 yelling fire
00:43:51.060 in a crowded
00:43:51.720 theater because
00:43:53.260 it could have
00:43:53.840 an immediate
00:43:54.420 bad impact
00:43:55.880 on people's
00:43:56.460 health and
00:43:56.940 safety,
00:43:57.960 then you
00:43:58.360 would agree
00:43:58.760 that that
00:43:59.240 should be
00:44:00.400 potentially a
00:44:02.480 legal problem,
00:44:03.200 right?
00:44:04.600 Would you
00:44:05.220 agree with me
00:44:05.900 that?
00:44:06.780 Unrestricted,
00:44:08.040 except with
00:44:08.780 that exception.
00:44:10.480 You don't want
00:44:10.980 to yell fire
00:44:11.660 in a crowded
00:44:12.740 theater.
00:44:13.500 Okay.
00:44:14.400 But otherwise,
00:44:15.300 completely
00:44:15.640 unrestricted.
00:44:17.000 Now, while you'd
00:44:17.740 have to make
00:44:18.080 an exception
00:44:18.520 for libel,
00:44:23.260 defaming
00:44:23.820 somebody
00:44:24.260 intentionally.
00:44:25.620 So would
00:44:26.400 you agree
00:44:26.800 that we
00:44:27.140 could also
00:44:27.600 have laws
00:44:28.440 that say
00:44:29.960 you can't
00:44:30.960 libel
00:44:31.580 somebody,
00:44:32.820 right?
00:44:33.900 If it
00:44:34.380 could be
00:44:34.640 proven.
00:44:37.040 All right.
00:44:37.540 Most of
00:44:37.900 you agree.
00:44:38.980 So unrestricted
00:44:40.080 free speech,
00:44:40.700 you can say
00:44:41.160 anything you want
00:44:41.800 as long as it
00:44:42.380 doesn't immediately
00:44:43.000 hurt somebody,
00:44:43.820 right?
00:44:44.040 But if you
00:44:47.080 did it with
00:44:47.660 the knowledge
00:44:48.100 that it
00:44:48.360 would hurt
00:44:48.620 somebody,
00:44:49.300 and maybe
00:44:49.680 even that
00:44:50.080 was why
00:44:50.440 you did
00:44:50.780 it,
00:44:52.320 maybe that's
00:44:53.180 bad.
00:44:54.940 Somebody says
00:44:55.480 yelling fire
00:44:56.100 in a movie
00:44:56.580 theater is not
00:44:57.340 illegal.
00:44:58.140 No, it's
00:44:58.560 not illegal
00:44:59.800 if it doesn't
00:45:01.320 cause any
00:45:01.900 problem.
00:45:03.620 You can yell
00:45:04.460 it if everybody
00:45:05.060 ignores you.
00:45:06.100 That's still
00:45:06.600 legal.
00:45:07.360 Yes, that's
00:45:07.880 correct.
00:45:09.520 All right.
00:45:10.700 Then,
00:45:12.020 so we've
00:45:13.040 got these
00:45:13.340 minor little
00:45:14.020 things.
00:45:15.260 Now, so
00:45:16.780 you're in
00:45:17.120 favor of
00:45:17.560 unrestricted
00:45:18.100 free speech.
00:45:19.180 So most
00:45:19.860 of you are
00:45:20.240 in favor of
00:45:21.000 teaching
00:45:21.600 children about
00:45:23.980 sexuality at
00:45:25.360 ages five
00:45:27.360 and six,
00:45:27.880 right?
00:45:28.540 You're all
00:45:28.960 good with
00:45:29.240 that?
00:45:30.200 Oh, no,
00:45:31.140 no, you're
00:45:31.720 not good
00:45:32.040 with that.
00:45:33.060 So that
00:45:33.520 would be an
00:45:33.860 exception,
00:45:34.460 too.
00:45:35.740 So unrestricted
00:45:36.860 free speech,
00:45:37.820 we're all in
00:45:38.800 favor of it.
00:45:40.140 Unless it
00:45:41.780 hurts somebody
00:45:42.520 like yelling
00:45:43.340 fire in a
00:45:43.940 theater or
00:45:45.180 defames them
00:45:46.060 or slanders
00:45:47.380 them or
00:45:48.660 teaches sex
00:45:49.300 to your
00:45:49.580 children.
00:45:50.880 But
00:45:51.100 otherwise,
00:45:52.520 otherwise
00:45:53.180 unrestricted.
00:45:54.460 Are we on
00:45:54.860 the same page?
00:45:56.560 Otherwise?
00:45:56.940 So in other
00:45:58.400 words, all of
00:45:58.980 the exceptions,
00:46:01.360 what do all
00:46:01.940 the exceptions
00:46:02.520 have in
00:46:02.980 common?
00:46:04.700 The exceptions
00:46:05.680 have in
00:46:06.160 common that
00:46:07.320 it is
00:46:08.260 immediate
00:46:08.620 harm,
00:46:09.120 that there
00:46:10.880 is obvious
00:46:12.100 immediate
00:46:12.540 harm to
00:46:13.760 the safety
00:46:15.500 issue, and
00:46:16.200 it's immediate.
00:46:17.220 That's
00:46:17.700 different from
00:46:18.260 saying general
00:46:19.020 things like,
00:46:20.240 oh, generally
00:46:20.960 Democrats are
00:46:21.840 bad, and
00:46:23.140 then you make
00:46:23.520 the argument,
00:46:24.100 oh, if you
00:46:24.540 hadn't said
00:46:24.920 Democrats are
00:46:25.580 bad, society
00:46:26.960 would be
00:46:27.520 working better
00:46:28.120 and people
00:46:28.520 would be
00:46:28.880 more alive.
00:46:30.260 So that
00:46:30.860 doesn't work.
00:46:31.440 It needs
00:46:31.720 to be direct,
00:46:33.500 obvious, you
00:46:34.080 can draw a
00:46:34.620 clean line from
00:46:35.680 the language
00:46:36.440 to somebody
00:46:36.980 got hurt.
00:46:38.220 In some
00:46:38.820 of those
00:46:39.120 cases, those
00:46:39.800 would be
00:46:40.060 illegal.
00:46:42.220 And that's
00:46:42.700 what that
00:46:43.180 2098 law
00:46:45.420 is trying to
00:46:45.880 do.
00:46:46.940 It's trying
00:46:47.760 to prevent
00:46:48.420 people from
00:46:49.040 yelling fire
00:46:50.080 in a crowded
00:46:50.680 theater.
00:46:52.160 That's what
00:46:52.760 it's trying
00:46:53.200 to do.
00:46:54.100 It's trying
00:46:55.000 to keep
00:46:55.460 you from
00:46:56.140 teaching sex
00:46:57.240 to children.
00:46:58.600 I mean,
00:46:58.980 in a,
00:47:01.000 not literally,
00:47:03.240 but what
00:47:03.660 it's doing
00:47:04.060 is trying to
00:47:04.600 prevent harm.
00:47:06.680 So,
00:47:07.860 the problem
00:47:09.800 is it's
00:47:10.100 probably too
00:47:10.520 broad, yeah.
00:47:11.420 That's probably
00:47:11.920 the problem.
00:47:13.160 But could
00:47:14.200 you imagine
00:47:14.740 a situation
00:47:15.480 in which
00:47:17.220 telling people
00:47:18.340 the opposite
00:47:19.200 of the
00:47:20.120 known
00:47:20.920 scientifically
00:47:21.800 demonstrated
00:47:22.620 truth
00:47:23.180 maybe should
00:47:25.060 be illegal?
00:47:28.800 Is there
00:47:29.580 any certainty
00:47:31.060 that would
00:47:32.820 allow you
00:47:33.460 to be okay
00:47:33.980 with that?
00:47:34.420 suppose you
00:47:36.160 had a
00:47:36.380 doctor that
00:47:39.260 was advising
00:47:39.900 people to
00:47:40.540 start smoking.
00:47:43.340 Anybody?
00:47:44.640 If you
00:47:45.240 had a
00:47:45.480 teacher
00:47:45.720 advise people
00:47:46.460 to start
00:47:47.140 smoking,
00:47:48.380 should there
00:47:48.820 be any
00:47:49.080 legal consequence
00:47:49.980 for that?
00:47:52.240 What do you
00:47:52.900 think?
00:47:54.260 Should there
00:47:54.920 be legal
00:47:55.520 consequence for
00:47:56.380 a doctor who
00:47:57.020 tells people to
00:47:57.680 start smoking?
00:47:58.520 most say no.
00:48:02.860 Most say no
00:48:03.700 because you
00:48:04.260 already understand
00:48:05.360 that smoking
00:48:05.980 is dangerous.
00:48:06.880 So it's a
00:48:07.520 trick question.
00:48:08.800 But imagine
00:48:09.380 if you didn't
00:48:10.020 know.
00:48:11.280 Imagine if
00:48:11.940 science knew
00:48:12.660 it was bad
00:48:13.160 for you,
00:48:13.800 like totally
00:48:14.500 bad for you.
00:48:15.840 You didn't
00:48:16.460 know the
00:48:16.760 difference.
00:48:18.560 But your
00:48:19.160 doctor said,
00:48:19.700 that's fine.
00:48:20.860 It's fine.
00:48:21.300 It's good
00:48:21.980 for you.
00:48:23.740 Would it
00:48:24.300 be illegal
00:48:24.760 then?
00:48:25.620 See, the
00:48:26.000 only reason
00:48:26.440 it's not
00:48:26.820 illegal is
00:48:27.380 that you're
00:48:27.680 well-informed.
00:48:28.680 So you
00:48:29.020 already know
00:48:29.480 it's bad
00:48:29.840 for you.
00:48:30.220 So it
00:48:30.520 wouldn't
00:48:30.780 fool you.
00:48:32.440 I don't
00:48:32.640 know.
00:48:34.340 All I'm
00:48:35.020 going to
00:48:35.220 add to
00:48:35.560 this
00:48:35.760 conversation
00:48:36.280 is that
00:48:36.960 we do
00:48:38.620 have a
00:48:39.000 precedent
00:48:39.400 that
00:48:40.820 restricting
00:48:41.540 free speech
00:48:42.420 to stop
00:48:43.180 immediate
00:48:43.700 harm
00:48:44.340 is good.
00:48:48.740 But then
00:48:49.380 you have
00:48:49.620 the situation
00:48:50.240 where the
00:48:50.980 see,
00:48:51.780 here's where
00:48:52.420 everything got
00:48:52.980 murky.
00:48:54.420 In my
00:48:55.160 opinion,
00:48:55.880 this is where
00:48:56.560 things currently
00:48:57.520 stand.
00:48:59.540 Then I'm
00:49:00.200 going to be
00:49:00.500 describing
00:49:01.020 mainstream
00:49:01.880 science's
00:49:02.740 opinion,
00:49:03.200 not my
00:49:03.580 own,
00:49:03.860 okay?
00:49:05.000 Everybody
00:49:05.420 okay with
00:49:05.840 that?
00:49:06.620 I'm going
00:49:06.940 to describe
00:49:07.520 mainstream
00:49:08.080 science's
00:49:08.940 opinion,
00:49:09.320 not mine.
00:49:10.260 So don't
00:49:10.660 get on me
00:49:11.200 if you don't
00:49:11.660 agree with
00:49:12.060 this.
00:49:13.560 Mainstream
00:49:14.040 science says
00:49:14.840 the vaccinations
00:49:16.260 did not
00:49:16.940 stop transmission,
00:49:18.640 but it did
00:49:19.980 save a lot
00:49:20.740 of lives.
00:49:21.460 That's what
00:49:21.840 they say,
00:49:22.540 not me,
00:49:23.180 don't blame
00:49:23.620 me,
00:49:24.040 don't get
00:49:24.320 on me.
00:49:25.360 That's what
00:49:25.780 science says,
00:49:27.120 mainstream
00:49:27.420 science.
00:49:28.980 But is it
00:49:31.160 not also
00:49:31.740 true that
00:49:32.640 the same
00:49:33.120 people who
00:49:33.600 are telling
00:49:33.920 us what's
00:49:34.380 good for
00:49:34.800 us clearly
00:49:36.020 misled us?
00:49:37.800 I'm not
00:49:38.120 going to say
00:49:38.420 lie because I
00:49:39.260 don't know who
00:49:39.700 was lying and
00:49:40.320 who just
00:49:40.620 didn't know.
00:49:41.960 They clearly
00:49:42.540 misled us
00:49:43.220 about the
00:49:43.860 transmissibility
00:49:45.100 if you're
00:49:45.980 vaccinated.
00:49:46.380 So in
00:49:48.300 that case,
00:49:49.600 should it
00:49:50.060 be illegal
00:49:50.820 for somebody
00:49:52.380 to depart
00:49:53.100 from the
00:49:53.540 narrative
00:49:53.840 when you
00:49:54.340 know that
00:49:54.720 the people
00:49:55.100 who created
00:49:55.960 the narrative
00:49:56.560 are not
00:49:57.300 credible?
00:49:59.700 That's where
00:50:00.340 it gets
00:50:00.620 complicated.
00:50:02.060 Because you
00:50:02.660 really don't
00:50:03.200 know who
00:50:03.680 has your
00:50:04.340 best interest.
00:50:04.900 If I knew
00:50:06.480 the consensus
00:50:08.700 of scientists
00:50:09.540 had my best
00:50:10.360 interest in
00:50:10.960 mind, I
00:50:12.140 would at
00:50:12.420 least be
00:50:12.820 open to
00:50:13.420 the possibility
00:50:14.120 that they
00:50:16.640 should have
00:50:17.120 maybe some
00:50:19.880 extra rights
00:50:21.240 or something.
00:50:22.480 But we
00:50:23.200 don't have
00:50:23.540 that assurance.
00:50:25.160 At this
00:50:25.580 point, we
00:50:25.960 don't trust
00:50:26.360 anybody.
00:50:28.000 So I
00:50:28.660 think you
00:50:28.940 have to
00:50:29.200 default to
00:50:29.980 free speech
00:50:30.800 if you
00:50:32.480 don't trust
00:50:32.920 anybody.
00:50:33.380 Because free
00:50:35.140 speech is
00:50:35.620 your only
00:50:35.980 hope.
00:50:37.500 It's your
00:50:37.820 only hope.
00:50:39.300 Everything
00:50:39.780 else can't
00:50:40.480 work.
00:50:41.720 And maybe
00:50:42.020 free speech
00:50:42.580 won't work
00:50:43.060 either.
00:50:43.880 But it's
00:50:44.180 your only
00:50:44.500 hope.
00:50:46.680 So having
00:50:47.420 walked you
00:50:47.920 through it,
00:50:48.400 I think I'm
00:50:49.180 going to
00:50:49.380 favor free
00:50:50.020 speech in
00:50:50.460 that case.
00:50:50.980 Even though
00:50:51.360 there might
00:50:51.720 be situations
00:50:53.320 where there
00:50:53.800 is immediate
00:50:54.280 harm at
00:50:56.400 risk, I
00:50:57.680 would still
00:50:57.920 go with
00:50:58.200 the free
00:50:58.480 speech, I
00:50:58.920 think.
00:51:01.840 The
00:51:02.320 missing
00:51:02.580 snow crabs
00:51:03.280 story.
00:51:03.720 Yeah, a
00:51:04.840 lot of
00:51:05.060 snow crabs
00:51:05.520 missing, but
00:51:06.120 I don't
00:51:07.500 care.
00:51:09.240 I don't
00:51:09.880 miss any
00:51:10.280 of them.
00:51:12.820 Yeah, Sweden
00:51:13.460 is going to
00:51:13.900 build new
00:51:14.620 nuclear reactors.
00:51:17.860 So take
00:51:18.780 that, Greta.
00:51:19.800 She's in
00:51:20.400 favor of
00:51:20.820 nuclear.
00:51:21.640 Greta likes
00:51:22.260 nuclear now.
00:51:24.720 Thanks,
00:51:25.320 Greta.
00:51:30.080 How about
00:51:30.700 the Alex
00:51:31.100 Jones situation?
00:51:32.020 We talked
00:51:32.380 about that
00:51:32.800 already.
00:51:33.280 I think
00:51:37.660 the penalty
00:51:38.120 was out
00:51:39.160 of whack
00:51:40.080 with the
00:51:40.480 crime.
00:51:44.340 All right.
00:51:47.940 Georgia's
00:51:48.500 starting up
00:51:48.900 a new
00:51:49.120 reactor?
00:51:50.500 They are?
00:51:55.460 All right.
00:51:56.240 All right,
00:51:56.720 that's all
00:51:57.040 for now,
00:51:57.440 and I
00:51:57.960 will
00:51:58.340 talk to you
00:52:02.520 tomorrow.
00:52:03.400 Bye for
00:52:04.240 now.