Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 3030 CWSA 11⧸28⧸25

00:00:00.000 well did you miss me today's going to be the quiet talking version i'm going to be quiet

00:00:12.560 but extra awesome today it's going to be full asmr

00:00:19.120 let's see let me get your comments up here and then we've got a show for you so come on in there we go

00:00:37.280 well did you miss me at all

00:00:40.960 so i was in the hospital for a couple days

00:00:43.600 i'm trying to work on my respiratory situation so i'm going to be soft talking so i don't wear

00:00:53.840 myself out okay so it's a little extra asmr today it will seem like low energy but really it's

00:01:04.880 strategic you ready for this good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of

00:01:14.720 human civilization it's called coffee with scott adams today will be the whisper version the asmr

00:01:22.960 version and if you'd like to take your experience up to levels that no one can even understand with

00:01:30.240 their tiny shiny human brains all you need for that is a copper mug or a glass of tanker chalice 0.99

00:01:38.880 stein a canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind filled with your favorite liquid i like coffee

00:01:47.680 enjoy me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine of the day the thing that makes everything

00:01:54.000 better it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens that's right now

00:02:04.960 ah

00:02:08.080 pretty good stuff

00:02:10.880 well today is mostly about hanging out with you people i do have some things to talk about

00:02:16.480 slow news day well not as slow as usual for uh black friday which seems racist but as far as i know it's

00:02:27.440 not all right who wants to talk about the news anybody yeah let's talk about the news all right so i'll try

00:02:40.160 to give you as much energy as i can but uh i can't promise a lot today today we're just gonna enjoy the fact

00:02:49.520 that we're all here together and uh i got a lot of love yesterday and i'm happy to return it

00:02:58.400 so let me tell you i love you all my audience including the beloveds who are a little bit extra special

00:03:07.440 but you're all awesome all right well i saw a post by mario knoffel who is a great person to follow

00:03:18.960 he has lots of good lots of good stuff on tesla and apparently tesla's full full self-driving

00:03:28.800 is reached a new level of awesomeness getting closer and closer uh one interesting thing is that elon

00:03:40.160 thanked waybo for going first and you know getting approvals and probably making it easier for tesla to

00:03:49.920 get approved for its full self-driving self-driving but the uh the point that mario was making

00:04:00.880 it's kind of interesting is that once you can if you can turn your car into a self-driving car

00:04:10.640 imagine having a one hour commute that you could do whatever you wanted

00:04:16.240 you could get work done you could sip your coffee but you wouldn't have to do any effort

00:04:25.120 it just takes you to work and then takes you home

00:04:31.040 well one of the things that would do is it would make it easier to live an hour away from work

00:04:38.000 so it could have an impact on real estate prices so people who live an hour from work suddenly are

00:04:47.680 going to be like hey this is totally practical i love an hour of no kids and no responsibility hiding

00:04:58.720 away in your yourself driving car for an hour each way sounds pretty good i have to admit

00:05:05.440 um since the the day i walked down of my cubicle existence i've thought i would never go back but

00:05:16.560 when i think about uh an hour each way in a self-driving car where nobody could bother me

00:05:25.920 and i could just just hang out and do what i want well i don't know maybe i'll go back to work

00:05:33.440 maybe i'll get my cubicle job back um but let's talk about some news so you all know about the story of the

00:05:47.040 national guard uh the two national guard people who got shot um and apparently that's made it

00:05:55.120 it's possible for trump to go full reverse migration meaning that he's uh planning to halt third world

00:06:06.080 immigration from everything that's a third world now that seems like a pretty big category

00:06:13.920 and it's something that i think he's wanted to do for a while but because of the uh

00:06:20.960 and because of the tragic news about the national guard it sort of creates an opportunity where he can

00:06:31.200 surf the uh the emotional feeling of the country so these anecdotal situations you know where there's

00:06:42.720 this one thing that happens that doesn't necessarily tell you you know the big picture it's just

00:06:49.520 one story of one tragic thing but those things really move they move policy so

00:06:57.760 i don't want to say it's lucky because it's obviously more tragic than anything else

00:07:03.200 but it does give trump the uh the opening to be far more severe on his uh immigration so he literally

00:07:13.840 wants to um i guess he wants to um i guess he wants to audit all the green cards and he wants to ship

00:07:20.960 back anybody who's not here um for all the right reasons so i think there's going to be a it looks like a

00:07:31.760 massive uh increase in re-immigration or what he calls it reverse immigration or the news calls it that i

00:07:40.800 don't know i don't know who calls it that but i'm generally not in favor of using anecdotes

00:07:50.560 no matter how powerful to make policy

00:07:53.760 but in this case it's a policy that at least maybe half the country wanted so

00:08:04.560 i've got a feeling it'll be very popular with the right wing

00:08:08.320 and it will be called it will be called racist by the left wing

00:08:17.840 and that will be just completely normal

00:08:20.640 um how in the world could we ever vet all the uh the immigrants 1.00

00:08:32.400 and keep out the terrorists how could you even do that it's completely undoable

00:08:40.560 so i think the options are either we put up with this continuous threat

00:08:47.840 or we close down immigration completely there's only two choices because the the choice of vetting

00:08:57.120 people really well that doesn't even seem like it could work right so this we i think we've had

00:09:06.640 this uh fantasy that we can vet people that we would know who's dangerous and who isn't

00:09:14.240 we can't really do that not possible so could be that this is uh going to be looking at a big change

00:09:24.960 we'll see you know i wonder how many of our policies are based on the fear did you ever think about that

00:09:34.320 this would be another one where if there's a big change in policy because of it it would be because of

00:09:41.360 fear and i don't know if fear is the best way you know to make new policies but i think we're going to

00:09:50.000 find out trump also says he uh that we're going to begin stopping venezuelan drug traffickers by land

00:10:01.120 where exactly would we stop venezuelans by land

00:10:05.600 do you understand do you understand that i think he means direct military action uh within venezuela

00:10:17.280 since we don't have a you know if we were going to stop it by land it would already be stopped

00:10:24.640 in other words if they i don't try to get across the mexican border

00:10:28.320 the venezuelans would probably you know we've already stopped them excuse me while i take a sip 0.61

00:10:37.280 from my awesome water thermos bottle that will make you wish you had one

00:10:43.600 so if you're just joining i'm using my npr asmr voice to conserve my energy so i can go as long as

00:11:04.400 possible probably won't go more than 20 minutes but we'll see all right so

00:11:15.440 it looks like we're uh we're at least teasing going to venezuelan but here's the real question

00:11:24.000 i'm going to get into some conspiracy theory stuff

00:11:26.560 it sounds better when you talk like this conspiracy theories is it really about the drugs

00:11:37.440 maybe some people say fentanyl is not a venezuela problem so there must be some other reason trump

00:11:47.120 wants to go into venezuela is it because venezuela has some implication in our election

00:11:56.560 systems i'm going to talk about that separately is it because what we really want is regime change

00:12:07.280 so do you think the do you think the war on venezuelan drugs is about voting machines

00:12:15.280 is it really about drugs or is it really about regime change

00:12:21.200 or is it some combination of all three or two and how would we ever know now um today this morning

00:12:36.240 since it was slow news i had some gaps in my understanding of some recent stories

00:12:42.320 and so i used grok to fill me in and it ruined all my fun has anybody tried that yet have you tried

00:12:54.240 using grok on stories within your own bubble you will be very disappointed if you do not not disappointed

00:13:04.800 in grok necessarily but you'll be disappointed in 0.99

00:13:10.400 how many things you believe that are pure bullshit 0.98

00:13:15.360 so my experience this morning was all right grok does this look reasonable nope 0.99

00:13:24.560 how about this does this look reasonable nope so it turns out that there were several things 0.85

00:13:32.720 things that i thought were at least possible in my bubble that grok says are bullshit now that doesn't mean

00:13:43.200 that grok is right right grok is you know intended to achieve maximum truth but it's not done yet

00:13:54.720 you know grok is still a work in progress so it's possible that grok is the one that's wrong

00:14:02.160 but it's pretty convincing so the first thing i used grok to help me on was the emerald robinson

00:14:11.760 uh long thread in which she she weaves together a very very convincing story that our elections have been

00:14:23.280 fake basically for years as well as the elections in other countries and that there's a very specific

00:14:33.280 um set of allegations of why that is but um so i ran that against grok

00:14:42.560 and i said you know basically summarize it and then tell me how reasonable it is what do you think grok said

00:14:51.520 grok wasn't buying any of it so um so emerald robinson's uh i guess or a thread you'd call it

00:15:04.560 is that and i'll just throw out some of the main points so one of the points is that

00:15:12.640 the the chips in election machines are made in china do you believe that's true and that they have

00:15:23.920 um you know malicious basically that the chips are malicious but that they were laundered through taiwan

00:15:34.080 so it would look like the chips came from taiwan but they really were made in china

00:15:38.880 so i'm not sure that's proven then there was the allegation that one of the main

00:15:48.560 election machines had as its ceo a george soros

00:15:57.280 um ally so there's a soros connection

00:16:00.800 allegation alleged and there's a chinese chip um part but there's also a venezuelan

00:16:12.000 software allegation and there's something about serbian servers and the cia so the idea would be

00:16:23.760 and here's the part i was trying to understand how in the world could all of those entities be working

00:16:33.520 together how could soros be working with china who is also working with some serbians who is also being

00:16:45.600 i don't know managed maybe by the cia does it seem like they would all be on the same team

00:16:53.600 and uh grok's explanation is that the cia no this would not be um this is grok's explanation

00:17:06.000 of i think the emerald robinson hypothesis

00:17:11.200 so it's not grok's opinion it's description of someone else's opinion but the idea would be

00:17:18.000 that the cia is allowing with full knowledge china to manipulate our elections 1.00

00:17:27.920 and soros to manipulate them and some serbians and maybe some venezuelan software

00:17:35.200 and that the reason that the cia would allow all that is that somehow that would preserve

00:17:44.560 the deep state as it is now do you think chinese microchips if such a thing were real do you think that

00:17:56.080 all those entities would be working toward the same end and that the cia would be completely aware of it

00:18:05.200 and allow it to happen and then separately why didn't it work in 2024 if our elections are completely compromised

00:18:18.640 why in the world didn't it work in 2024 and the explanation given is that the good work of the

00:18:28.320 people trying to uncover this vast conspiracy were so good at what they did that it increased the uh

00:18:38.480 let's say the potential for audits and the oversight and that in some cases they got rid of election

00:18:47.040 machines um i don't know how many places but so the theory is that they've you know that for

00:18:56.080 maybe decades the entire system has been rigged that hundreds of people are aware of it and part of it

00:19:06.960 but yet somehow the we only hear about it from a few whistleblowers even though decades and hundreds of

00:19:16.240 people have been involved that's that's a that's a stretch but we have seen we have seen real world

00:19:23.920 situations where hundreds of people have been involved and it was actually was a conspiracy

00:19:31.920 you know if you're talking about covet for example that was an example of a lot of people being involved

00:19:39.520 who could have been whistleblowers but weren't so we we do have i think some precedent

00:19:46.080 of lots of people being involved of lots of people being involved and nobody talking because they'd be

00:19:52.080 afraid of being executed presumably by the cia so how much of that sounds

00:20:02.160 real to you do you believe that all of those entities let's see i'll give you the entities again

00:20:08.240 which ones uh it would have been um the soros organization venezuela some serbian hackers

00:20:20.880 the chinese making microchips and the cia do you believe that they were all coordinating

00:20:29.120 that's kind of a it's kind of a stretch

00:20:32.160 i'm just looking at your comments so um a grok spot well let me let me tell you what else

00:20:42.320 we'll just give you as much as i have um

00:20:47.520 first of all the the story is kind of yes confused openly exactly it's a it's a bit confusing story

00:20:54.160 so that's your first hint that maybe there's something wrong meaning there's a lot of parts to it

00:21:04.560 and if there's one thing i've taught you and only one thing it's that things which are not true

00:21:13.840 can often have a lot of circumstantial evidence that they are so it's not unusual

00:21:21.840 for something not to be true but really really looking like it is

00:21:27.120 for 20 different reasons that's that just doesn't mean it's true so let's see what else

00:21:36.400 i i also look to mike benz to tell me if this all tracks and i i think mike i don't want to

00:21:46.080 i hate to mischaracterize him but i think he would be on the side of um not complete not completely

00:21:56.320 embracing the emerald robinson version of events um i didn't see him debunk it but nor did i see him

00:22:08.080 him fully embracing it if he had that would have added a lot to the credibility because he knows

00:22:17.760 you know he knows the context of things in ways we don't anyway so part of the uh part of the theory

00:22:28.960 is is is that the reason

00:22:34.880 no not not s-i-r-i theory t-h-e-o-r-y

00:22:40.880 i've got to talk to my phone for a minute my phone thought i was talking to it

00:22:48.960 phone quiet down all right so part of the theory is that the reason that um the bad people got away

00:22:59.040 with it is that they they learned to shave votes only from the deep red pro-trump um districts

00:23:10.880 and the idea is

00:23:15.520 that nobody would suspect if they did all the cheating in the red areas

00:23:21.200 because the red areas are republican controlled and you wouldn't expect

00:23:25.760 those to be the places that would be cheating against trump and the theory is that if it's a

00:23:35.040 trump 70 percent area that if they just shave it back to say 68 percent nobody would notice

00:23:44.080 because it would still be a landslide for trump in a trump area so that would look legit it would just

00:23:50.320 look i was off by two percent from what we expected but you know you can't you can't expect that accurately

00:24:01.840 so that makes sense uh i don't think there's proof of that but it makes sense in the how would you cheat

00:24:10.000 if you did cheat how would you do it so it makes sense that way but i don't think that's

00:24:15.440 uh i don't think there's evidence of that uh let's see what else

00:24:25.680 i've been saying for a while that the best evidence that the electronic voting machines are not legit

00:24:34.480 without stating who might be behind you know any uh any bad behavior is that they they're not cheaper

00:24:43.200 they're not easier and they're not more secure than the alternative which is paper ballots so why do they even exist

00:24:56.320 i'm leaning toward the idea that they do exist for the purpose of rigging elections in other countries

00:25:05.440 but that would still raise the question who's doing the rigging is it possible that the cia was working with maduro

00:25:18.720 and china i don't know how all that makes sense anyway so let's see what else crock said about it

00:25:27.840 um

00:25:34.320 yeah so the the theory that the cia allegedly allowed china to insert spyware because they were okay with it

00:25:46.880 does that really track

00:25:50.240 does it make sense to you that

00:25:51.600 um there would be at least i know two or three entities that all had some access to be able to rig

00:25:59.680 the rig the vote i don't know so i'm going to say this about that um first of all grok

00:26:09.920 is really a spoiler this won't be the first thing i tell you that um that it kind of debunked

00:26:17.920 now debunk is a strong word and it does not mean disproven so just get that part straight uh grok did not

00:26:31.520 disprove the theory is simply did not find it compelling i guess but is that is that evidence

00:26:42.160 is anybody convinced by grok's opinion well one of the things that grok did was it mocked me

00:26:55.040 and actually it used me as an example

00:27:00.800 in his response it sounded it said it sounded more like a like a scott adams conspiracy theory

00:27:08.000 and i said why did you bring me into it and that was the funny part grok knows who i am

00:27:19.360 um it knows who i am but it also used me as an example to make his point

00:27:29.680 anyway i got a little personal there all right so i also tested grok

00:27:36.560 against the mike ben's um hypothesis i'll call it that that uh it's not a coincidence that uh

00:27:48.160 there are these big immigration waves in to america um that follow some kind of cia

00:27:56.720 um color revolution in another country so i think he had some i don't know maybe there were like eight

00:28:05.280 different examples of countries where we were actively meaning the cia was actively trying to

00:28:14.880 do regime change and caused instability in the the target country be it syria or afghanistan

00:28:23.520 afghanistan and then once that um once that uh let's say um disruption of their society happened

00:28:36.880 and it triggered a bunch of uh immigration uh or migration out of the target country

00:28:44.880 that uh there was a secondary benefit that the deep state or the cia or somebody knew would happen and

00:28:54.400 what they would do is they would uh aim the aim the refugees for areas where the extra population

00:29:03.520 could be used to change the vote so and uh it might give a bunch of examples

00:29:13.840 that uh you would have to believe that they were all a coincidence for that uh for for there to be any

00:29:21.440 other reason in other words it does look intentional but only by the fact that there are too many coincidences

00:29:30.480 but grok i thought was going to buy into this a little bit more than it did grok said that

00:29:39.920 there's no evidence of intent so it didn't doubt mike benz's facts it only said there's a part missing

00:29:51.360 which is some evidence that anybody intended for this to happen

00:29:56.640 um we can observe that it does happen we can observe that um something like color revolutions that we're

00:30:07.040 pushing in other places does create mass migration and we can observe that it changes the

00:30:16.080 the political you know dynamic in certain places but um the part that's missing

00:30:23.360 is uh some kind of a more direct smoking gun i guess that it's all intentional at least at least the

00:30:34.080 intentional part is that it's uh partly to you know change the uh the voting balance in the united states

00:30:43.840 so that ruined uh some of my fun there um as far as i can tell mike is undefeated in terms of

00:30:53.760 showing his receipts but uh sometimes you have to make a little bit of a a leap and say well this

00:31:03.200 doesn't look like a coincidence or or if it is a coincidence that's sure a weird one so i would say

00:31:10.480 that um so grok was not grok was not uh not at all convinced

00:31:18.560 now again i remind you that doesn't mean grok is right that was just sort of grok steak

00:31:27.680 get no frills delivered shop the same in-store prices online and enjoy unlimited delivery with pc

00:31:37.120 express pass get your first year for 250 a month learn more at pcexpress.ca

00:31:43.040 then i uh this this one will kill you you ready for another one i don't want to ruin all of your

00:31:54.160 your fun with the conspiracy theories because they are fun and i i get drawn into them as much as

00:32:01.200 anybody else all right so i saw a post by eric doherty that summarized what a number of other

00:32:09.680 people have said about the seditious sex you know the seditious sex that would be the six uh democrats

00:32:18.560 who uh did the video that suggested that uh people in the military should not follow orders that are illegal

00:32:30.240 now as eric uh points out and i and this would be the uh i think eric's take would be what i'd call the uh

00:32:39.760 uh the republican bubble doesn't mean it's wrong doesn't mean it's right it's just what the republicans

00:32:49.520 are seeing on social media but you know maybe the democrats don't even see it i don't even know if

00:32:55.360 they see it but it goes like this there's an alleged and everything i say about this will be alleged

00:33:02.960 uh an alleged non-profit linked to george soros that is fomenting sedition within the military

00:33:12.800 so the the thinking is that the video we saw was um inspired by or even the script was written by

00:33:24.240 some third-party external um bad player and that that bad player

00:33:31.440 might be linked to maybe george soros but also let's see there's some group called

00:33:42.720 win without war that put up a billboard just one billboard in north carolina

00:33:50.560 and that was similar in tone to the seditious seditious sex

00:33:57.120 um so that would suggest there's some external maybe larger you know larger play bigger than just

00:34:07.040 some democrats wanting to do a thing there's some link to antifa allegedly

00:34:13.600 um and then as eric doherty is reporting that on november 11th just days before the video

00:34:22.080 the national lawyers guild uh published a page urging service members to refuse illegal orders

00:34:32.080 and it would be the basically the same talking points as in the video so and then win without war

00:34:39.520 that entity let's see if i got the right entities so there's a national lawyers guild but there's also the

00:34:48.560 the win without war non-profit i think um who are backed by the soros open society

00:35:00.400 and the group had some previous name all right so and then oh here it is so the win without war

00:35:06.960 is partnered with the national lawyers guild is this all too confusing

00:35:11.280 so that the the the short version is that um the belief is that the six democrats were not

00:35:23.680 doing this on their own that there was some external guiding force still unidentified

00:35:31.280 that uh allegedly had some connection with soros um i guess the national lawyers guild

00:35:41.760 supports antifa and then um here's the key part there's something that senator ruben gallego said

00:35:52.080 um on video recently in some interview i guess and uh allegedly he admitted that there was a external

00:36:02.960 script that the script for the video you know he had seen it and it came from some external source

00:36:11.280 but grok says that's fake news grok says there is no such thing as ruben gallego admitting there was a

00:36:22.480 third-party script that just didn't happen and that it was a misinterpretation of something he did say

00:36:30.800 but there's no evidence that he said it came from an external source

00:36:34.720 now um i don't doubt that there's more than one entity that's putting out the same message but then i asked grok

00:36:47.120 so why would these six people put out this video if not to you know try to create some kind of a

00:36:55.760 insurrection or uh cause chaos or i don't take over the government or something else

00:37:04.160 and here's what grok said and grok said it's most likely that the that the democrats are legitimately

00:37:13.600 afraid of trump trying to go full dictator and issuing illegal orders

00:37:21.920 uh and so grok believes that these seditious sex were actually patriots

00:37:29.840 who are legitimately concerned that trump is at least teasing or moving toward

00:37:39.920 some more authoritarian situation and that they would like to reduce the chances that he could

00:37:48.160 succeed at that and so they're warning the troops hey watch out you know he might actually try something

00:37:54.800 that's legitimately illegal and you're gonna have to step up

00:38:02.720 now what do you think do you think it's more likely that some external entity was behind it all

00:38:11.920 and who would that be or do you think that every democrat is afraid

00:38:17.520 literally every democrat is afraid that trump might exceed his uh legal domain and try to get the military to

00:38:29.520 do something illegal um and it might be illegal in terms of war might be illegal in terms of um immigration

00:38:41.600 um could be illegal um could be illegal in terms of anything i guess

00:38:49.680 so what what sounds more likely to you that the democrats are legitimately afraid

00:38:59.200 and some of them said hey let's do something about it you know to inoculate so the the word that 0.55

00:39:05.680 that uh grok used was inoculate so the idea was to simply get the military thinking about how they would handle

00:39:19.840 a situation that looked you know unambiguously illegal to them

00:39:26.240 i would say at this point um the third party connection is unproven

00:39:32.640 i don't think you need a third party if every democrat is really thinking the same thing

00:39:41.120 and you know trump keeps teasing about a third term and if you're a democrat you're gonna take that

00:39:48.240 seriously you know i i think republicans laugh at the third term thing because it looks like

00:39:55.440 you know trump's just playing with them but they're the ones being played with

00:39:59.680 so they might be thinking they might be thinking it's real i'm gonna say on this one um the only thing i

00:40:11.360 think is proven is that there's more than one democrat who thinks trump might be breaking the law sometime soon

00:40:21.920 so if there is a connection to some shadowy external source um i don't think that's quite proven yet

00:40:32.800 could be though could be all right um next story

00:40:39.840 uh i saw in the independent hannah ariva oba ahiroba is writing that uh russian drones

00:40:52.560 are targeting uh civilians and turning one ukrainian city into what they call the human safari

00:40:59.680 so apparently kursan allegedly has uh you know i think hundreds of uh russian drones a day

00:41:10.960 are hunting for civilians that just happen to go outdoors does that sound real to you keep in mind

00:41:19.680 that all reports from a war zone are a little you know a little sketchy do you believe that one

00:41:26.080 do you believe that in kursan there are i don't know hundreds of attacks on uh on uh civilians

00:41:36.560 and if and if they are let's say it was true why would russia do that why would it why would it use drones

00:41:47.840 to attack civilians i will sip from my awesome thing while you think about that

00:42:01.200 would they be doing it if it if it's happening at all uh are they trying to depopulate the city

00:42:08.160 are they trying to get people to move so for what so it'd be easier to take over the city

00:42:18.080 um one theory is that they were just practicing and that they just use it for target practice

00:42:25.680 to train the drone operators do you think they're doing it for target practice

00:42:30.640 just to train the drone people now that doesn't seem like a good use of training

00:42:38.560 um are they trying to demoralize the city is it revenge some people say it's revenge for

00:42:47.200 something the ukrainians did that doesn't make sense um or is it propaganda and it's not actually

00:42:55.200 happening or is it happening but not at the level that's being reported i would say i'm not quite

00:43:04.480 willing to believe that uh it's even happening um i would say it's it's too yeah it's too fog of war

00:43:14.880 it's too much exactly like exactly like something somebody would lie about in a war oh you're monsters

00:43:24.720 you're killing our civilians we would never do that so i'm going to say i don't believe that story

00:43:33.280 um then i tried to use grok to understand how likely is it that ukraine and russia would

00:43:43.520 find a find an acceptable peace and i think the answer is there's not really any way

00:43:50.480 i don't think there is a way um so i i started with some um context you know i've been hearing

00:44:00.560 forever that uh ukraine could have made peace back in 2022 um and i guess the offer was on the table

00:44:12.080 that uh russia would keep crimea and the donbass that has a bunch of russian national a bunch of russian

00:44:22.640 ethnic people would have some kind of special rule and that ukraine would 1.00

00:44:29.120 um agree to never join nato and the theory is that russia would have taken that offer

00:44:40.480 um but uh it looked like zelensky may have been the one who who let's see let's see if i have this right

00:44:49.200 oh so so it looks like it looked like there was a way to make peace

00:45:00.480 but probably that's an exaggeration i suspect they were not ever close to peace

00:45:07.200 but it might be true that if they the only way they could make peace is something that looked like

00:45:14.240 giving up a lot um so you see how hard it is to for me to even explain this i'm doing a terrible job

00:45:23.200 so so according to grok i'll just tell you what grok says grok said that in 2022

00:45:32.000 um ukraine floated some concessions to maybe wrap things up without war and he signaled openness to

00:45:42.800 neutrality not joining nato uh zelensky did and autonomy or special status for the donbass and but i think

00:45:56.240 um but putin pushed again this is grok putin pushed for total demilitarization a handover of crimea

00:46:08.400 and more so it tanked so according to grok there was never anything that both sides agreed on

00:46:17.840 was it ever was it ever something that could have not happened so and then there's grok also

00:46:34.000 says that the egos of the two leaders is in play you know that neither of them can lose

00:46:40.720 so that's part of the that's part of it so here's what i think

00:46:45.280 i don't think there was ever a chance it wasn't going to go to war because they were never that

00:46:52.000 close they say they were but i think that's just propaganda

00:47:00.880 and both think the other is the reason that it went further so

00:47:05.760 um here's why i think it's impossible for them to get any kind of peace

00:47:16.240 because if zelensky makes peace by giving up land he will lose his job and probably be killed

00:47:25.760 if putin decided to go easy on um ukraine that wouldn't make sense because he seems to be in a

00:47:35.520 sort of a winning position in the long run so you've got two leaders who

00:47:43.680 neither of them have much incentive to settle it

00:47:48.400 but they have an incentive to keep doing what they're doing

00:47:52.720 at the very least you need one of the sides to think it was a bad idea to be at war and i don't

00:47:58.400 think we have that greetings from moscow somebody in the comments is in moscow so i would say that i

00:48:08.080 don't believe the story uh that there was a point in the past where they could have made peace

00:48:17.760 i think that was always maybe exaggerated and probably this was always going to happen

00:48:23.680 just because of the interests of the two leaders

00:48:29.520 and it's more about the leaders of the countries

00:48:34.640 what do you think

00:48:35.280 i'm looking at the comments do you think do you think there's any chance

00:48:41.840 that they could have settled this thing earlier like 2022

00:48:46.880 yeah i'm really feeling like no

00:48:54.560 and then on top of that you have all the smart people saying that even if

00:49:00.480 um putin agreed you couldn't trust him so you know there's not enough

00:49:10.480 there's not enough to make a deal but even if he made a deal it wouldn't be worth anything

00:49:15.440 because i can't see i can't see putin giving up on at least controlling ukraine as a proxy

00:49:28.000 so

00:49:30.320 cruise again

00:49:33.520 what did i prove again so i guess i don't believe anything about

00:49:37.440 um that they could have had peace before i just i just don't think it was possible

00:49:46.480 and it isn't possible now either so i would say at minimum

00:49:53.680 i'm going to re-up my prediction i think there's going to be at least another year of war

00:50:00.720 war and it'll be perpetual war unless something changes and i think uh

00:50:09.840 i think time is on russia's side right now

00:50:16.080 yeah it looks like they're in a winning position so they'd they would have no reason to negotiate

00:50:24.240 i mean it certainly doesn't look like it doesn't look like putin wants peace does it

00:50:31.120 i don't think he cares at all

00:50:35.120 i mean he would want peace if he also got as much of ukraine as he wanted

00:50:41.360 but uh doesn't look like that's an option

00:50:47.040 ukraine is not a country anymore huh well there's still something left 0.73

00:50:54.560 you know kiev is still unoccupied

00:50:57.280 all right that's all i have for today if you're joining late

00:51:06.720 my whispering is because trying to save energy

00:51:10.560 and uh

00:51:14.960 i thought i'd try my asmr fm radio voice

00:51:20.880 and it worked so i got through

00:51:24.960 most of the show

00:51:25.760 now there's there's not much going on and i think i i think i did a terrible job today

00:51:36.160 if i were to uh judge my own uh analysis pretty bad

00:51:41.440 uh because these stories are all complicated but i recommend the following if you

00:51:50.880 if you see one of these complicated conspiracy theory stories no matter where it comes from

00:51:57.840 and no matter how credible it sounds you really owe it to yourself to

00:52:04.560 spend a few minutes with a grok

00:52:07.120 and say all right here's the claim

00:52:10.160 is that is that legitimate

00:52:13.280 i think what you're going to find

00:52:15.600 is that nine out of ten times grok is going to say no that is not

00:52:19.840 legitimate 0.98

00:52:22.800 and then you'll say damn it i'm in a bubble 0.99

00:52:27.120 because we all are in bubbles 0.98

00:52:30.400 now you may have also seen news nation

00:52:33.840 did a story about uh dr sun shun

00:52:37.120 and his uh cancer treatments

00:52:41.120 and trying to get the fda to

00:52:43.200 uh approve it and uh who was it uh is it redfield

00:52:51.840 somebody who was ex-fda was saying that uh the the practice of waiting for a

00:53:00.160 um a

00:53:03.440 uh a serious trial of every of every medicine is

00:53:08.480 is not always appropriate and i think the claim was if you if you observe

00:53:17.120 somebody doing a treatment that cures them or puts them in remission

00:53:23.920 and there was nothing else that worked that's not nothing you know it's not a randomized controlled

00:53:30.560 trial but can you ignore that suppose suppose dozens of people

00:53:38.480 are cured of incurable cancer

00:53:44.880 would you not allow the next person to try it

00:53:49.840 so i think that's the question we're down to

00:53:53.520 so i'm on that path

00:53:56.160 so if i get if i get remission that'll mean something

00:54:02.080 i'll let you know i've got one more dose

00:54:04.960 all right people

00:54:12.400 i'm running out of energy

00:54:18.640 so thanks for joining and i'll say bye for now i i don't have enough energy to

00:54:26.880 um stay for the uh after show for my beloveds but i'll try to get more energy in the future

00:54:35.280 bye for now

00:54:42.640 you

00:54:42.720 you

00:54:42.800 you

00:54:44.800 you

00:54:46.800 you

00:54:48.800 you

00:54:50.800 you

00:54:52.800 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 28, 2025

Episode 3030 CWSA 11⧸28⧸25

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript