Rebel News Podcast - British comedian Ricky Gervais lets loose on smug, hypocritical celebrity elites as Golden Globes host

00:00:00.000 Hello, my Rebels. You've probably heard about Ricky Gervais' great Golden Globes monologue

00:00:06.520 mocking Hollywood. Well, I'll take you through some of the highlights of that right away.

00:00:11.300 Before I do, let me invite you to become a Rebel Premium subscriber. It's eight bucks a month.

00:00:16.480 You get access to the video version of this podcast, plus a couple other shows.

00:00:20.800 Just go to premium.rebelnews.com. Okay, here's the podcast.

00:00:30.000 Tonight, the funniest Hollywood awards show in memory, because a British comedian absolutely savaged the celebrity elite.

00:00:48.940 You'll like this one. It's January 6th, and this is the Ezra Levant Show.

00:00:54.640 Why should others go to jail when you're a biggest carbon consumer I know?

00:00:58.240 There's 8,500 customers here, and you won't give them an answer.

00:01:02.560 The only thing I have to say to the government about why I publish it is because it's my bloody right to do so.

00:01:13.440 So many Hollywood award shows, and the ratings keep falling pretty much every year. Why?

00:01:20.420 We're still celebrity-obsessed as a culture.

00:01:24.280 You could say that the United States has a reality TV show president.

00:01:28.780 But I think the award shows are the worst, because instead of celebrating what people like about celebrities,

00:01:35.660 their art, their style, maybe even just their prettiness and handsomeness,

00:01:39.740 or, you know, their movies, their music,

00:01:41.600 well, celebrities make the mistake of thinking that it's about their political wisdom

00:01:46.220 that we're all just dying to hear about.

00:01:49.180 I mean, actors read lines written for them.

00:01:52.840 They're directed.

00:01:54.540 Most musicians sing songs written for them by others.

00:01:59.220 I think they forget themselves and think it's them, them, that we want.

00:02:04.180 I mean, all day long they're flattered by yes-men and yes-women, 0.92

00:02:07.340 and so they think the rest of us are just dying to hear their latest takes on politics or anything else.

00:02:13.040 I showed you Rose McGowan's tweet the other day about Iran,

00:02:16.640 where she called America a terrorist country, said she supported Iran,

00:02:20.300 stood with the killed terrorist over there.

00:02:22.320 And I'm pretty sure that's not the real Iranian flag there.

00:02:26.720 Yeah, no, I don't think they have that, like, beanie baby, little smiley son and baby lion cub.

00:02:33.180 I think that's a kid's version or some weird thing.

00:02:36.680 That's not Iran's flag.

00:02:39.720 But like I say, she didn't have a scriptwriter helping her out. 1.00

00:02:42.520 She was using her own brain.

00:02:45.240 As I said the other day, I have pity for Rose McGowan. 0.96

00:02:47.820 She was a rape victim of Harvey Weinstein,

00:02:50.460 though it seems like she accepted that rape as the entry fee to be a Hollywood starlet. 0.50

00:02:55.940 I'm on her side in that whole thing, of course,

00:02:58.220 but I note that plenty, maybe hundreds, of Hollywood starlets were only too happy to make that same deal

00:03:05.380 to get ahead of every other would-be starlet in a starlet-full city.

00:03:10.420 And surely plenty of men made similar bargains, too,

00:03:13.200 and surely everyone in the industry knew about that common practice.

00:03:17.480 And my point is they all gather together to celebrate themselves.

00:03:20.720 Okay, fair enough.

00:03:21.500 But then to lecture us, the likes of Woody Allen, who married his own adopted stepdaughter.

00:03:29.440 He's going to lecture us, maybe.

00:03:31.060 Roman Polanski, convicted of raping a drugged teenager,

00:03:35.220 who fled the jurisdiction, but is still a star producer.

00:03:39.680 Look at this, getting applause from his peers.

00:03:41.280 He couldn't appear in person because he's wanted for rape in America,

00:03:45.440 so they're cheering him.

00:03:46.660 He was on a big screen there.

00:03:47.900 These are the people who are going to lecture us.

00:03:49.540 Leonardo DiCaprio, never seen far from a private jet or a mega yacht

00:03:55.000 telling us about global warming and how we have to live smaller.

00:03:59.520 I think that's one reason why audiences are tuning out of these awards nights.

00:04:02.920 It's not just that we disagree with them.

00:04:05.060 It's that we can never look our celebrity heroes,

00:04:07.940 never look them the same way again.

00:04:10.720 Look at what this actor, remember this, I've showed you this before. 0.99

00:04:14.020 He's whipping up the crowd in Hollywood, saying that it's time to punch people in the face 0.54

00:04:21.800 that he disagrees with, disagrees with politically. 0.98

00:04:24.320 We will hunt monsters, and when we are at a loss amidst the hypocrisy and the casual violence of certain individuals and institutions, 0.98

00:04:35.180 we will, as per Chief Jim Hopper, punch some people in the face when they seek to destroy the meat and the disenfranchised and the marginalized. 0.98

00:04:45.440 Yeah, no, no, I don't think so. 0.86

00:04:50.660 I used to love Robert De Niro, when all I knew about him was his acting, reading lines, and being directed, 0.78

00:04:57.800 but then I had to hear crap like this every week. 1.00

00:05:01.680 I'm going to say one thing, fuck Trump. 1.00

00:05:03.820 Yeah, you need a writer, buddy, that's not particularly clever or memorable other than it's shocking to know who you really are. 1.00

00:05:15.560 That makes me dislike him no matter what. 1.00

00:05:19.160 What an idiot. 1.00

00:05:19.680 And of course, if he thinks that way about Trump, which half of America voted for and many of the world's non-American moviegoers like, 1.00

00:05:27.660 well, maybe he thinks that way about me too.

00:05:29.460 Why would you antagonize 50% of your audience if you're in the retail business?

00:05:34.400 More money than brains, I guess.

00:05:36.200 No self-discipline, no self-reflection. 0.57

00:05:39.460 Yeah, I'm not interested in lectures from a guy who, according to reports,

00:05:44.040 was grilled for nine hours by French police about his connections to a teenage prostitution ring.

00:05:52.380 I won't take lectures from Robert De Niro.

00:05:55.040 So yeah, actors and singers should be seen and not heard, as the saying goes,

00:05:58.700 but they can't help themselves.

00:06:00.460 But something funny happened last night at the Golden Globe Awards.

00:06:03.480 Now, no one cares about the Golden Globe Awards.

00:06:05.700 No one knows what they are.

00:06:06.980 That's the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

00:06:09.960 So it's movie reviewers and celebrity watchers from other countries who come to L.A.

00:06:16.600 to write about Hollywood for their home countries.

00:06:19.540 I mean, who cares about them, right?

00:06:21.820 Well, more and more movies actually make their money in foreign countries.

00:06:25.360 It's why celebrities love to take a knee and protest against the United States in America.

00:06:31.060 But you've never seen a pro-athlete challenger say, China's dictatorship, have you?

00:06:37.340 So it's not just Hollywood.

00:06:39.400 It's sports, too.

00:06:40.680 That's why the NBA effectively bans its members from criticizing China or supporting Hong Kong democracy protests.

00:06:47.520 The NBA and those celebrities love that dictatorship money.

00:06:52.760 And they know that, unlike American money, it gets taken away if they criticize those regimes.

00:06:57.340 So last night, for some reason, the Golden Globes hired someone actually funny as an emcee.

00:07:04.860 That's very dangerous.

00:07:06.040 They hired this guy, Ricky Gervais.

00:07:07.980 He's funny.

00:07:09.080 He's very British.

00:07:10.120 But he's getting better known in America.

00:07:12.620 I think he's pretty funny.

00:07:13.760 He's political in his own way.

00:07:15.840 He's very atheist.

00:07:16.840 That's one of his big things.

00:07:18.940 He's a bit braver at taking on Christianity than Islam, of course. 0.90

00:07:23.040 I mean, he likes to live.

00:07:24.900 But still, he takes on sacred cows that most others in entertainment won't.

00:07:29.820 He loves to mock Jonathan Yaniv, the B.C. transgender activist who demanded that immigrant women wax his male parts, claiming he was a girl.

00:07:39.240 So Ricky Gervais does more than most to challenge political correctness.

00:07:42.460 I think the Golden Globes must have known what they were getting.

00:07:46.800 And so now you know what happened.

00:07:49.440 Oil meets water or water meets fire or whatever, something like that. 0.96

00:07:53.940 Ricky Gervais was let loose on the most smug, condescending, pretentious, hypocritical group in the world. 0.95

00:08:02.120 And it was amazing. 0.94

00:08:03.480 I haven't seen the ratings yet, but I bet they were good for a change.

00:08:07.900 Let me show you why in a few clips.

00:08:09.600 Take a look.

00:08:10.040 You'll be pleased to know this is the last time I'm hosting these awards, so I don't care anymore.

00:08:18.020 I'm joking.

00:08:19.100 I never did.

00:08:22.200 NBC clearly don't care either.

00:08:25.200 Fifth time.

00:08:26.320 So, I mean, Kevin Hart was fired from the Oscars because of some offensive tweets.

00:08:31.480 Hello.

00:08:31.660 That's true.

00:08:35.280 Kevin Hart, he's a black comedian, a very, very funny, I think, but he's to his own. 1.00

00:08:40.360 But literally a decade ago, or even longer ago in some cases, he made some tweets that were politically incorrect. 0.91

00:08:47.140 Like one tweet that said, yo, if my son comes home and tries to play with my daughter's dollhouse, I'm going to break it over his head and say in my voice, stop, that's gay. 1.00

00:08:57.200 Okay, well, that sort of would be gay, but Kevin Hart wasn't accepting enough 10 years ago, I guess.

00:09:08.160 So he was fired from being the Oscars host last year because that's just not tolerant enough.

00:09:19.220 Marrying your stepdaughter is cool in Hollywood, ask Woody Allen.

00:09:23.760 Raping a girl and fleeing the jurisdiction is cool, ask Roman Polanski.

00:09:30.300 Being so deep in a child prostitution ring that you're grilled by French police for nine hours, that's cool. 0.99

00:09:35.800 But don't say that boys playing with a dollhouse is gay. 0.55

00:09:38.780 Don't even say that it's a joke, not even 10 years ago, okay?

00:09:42.760 I mean, just don't make jokes.

00:09:45.920 But that's Ricky Gervais signaling what he was about to do, as in break every rule.

00:09:51.880 Lucky for me, the Hollywood foreign press can barely speak English, and they've no idea what Twitter is.

00:10:00.980 So I got offered this gig by fax.

00:10:03.720 So let's go out with a bang, let's have a laugh at your expense, shall we?

00:10:09.460 Remember, they're just jokes.

00:10:11.840 We're all going to die soon, and there's no sequel.

00:10:14.660 So, yeah, remember that.

00:10:18.300 But you all look lovely, all dolled up.

00:10:21.760 You came here in your limos.

00:10:22.980 I came here in a limo tonight, and the license plate was made by Felicity Huffman.

00:10:28.100 So, no, shush.

00:10:32.340 It's her daughter I feel sorry for, okay?

00:10:36.200 That must be the most embarrassing thing that's ever happened to her.

00:10:39.540 And her dad was in Wild Hogs.

00:10:41.440 Now, that's a pretty gentle joke that's making fun of someone who bribed their kids' way into a good school.

00:10:50.960 Pretty easygoing so far, although you saw Tim Hanks was shocked by that.

00:10:56.400 You can watch another clip.

00:10:58.240 In this room are some of the most important TV and film executives in the world.

00:11:02.900 People from every background, but they all have one thing in common.

00:11:06.220 They're all terrified of Ronan Farrow.

00:11:10.100 He's coming for you.

00:11:11.920 He's coming for you. 0.99

00:11:13.640 Look, talking of all you perverts, it was a big year for paedophile movies. 0.96

00:11:21.580 Surviving R. Kelly, Leaving Neverland, Two Popes. 1.00

00:11:26.580 Shut up. Shut up. 1.00

00:11:28.740 I don't care. I don't care. 1.00

00:11:32.640 There was that anti-Christian vibe.

00:11:34.820 They wouldn't care about being anti-Christian in Hollywood.

00:11:38.780 But that mention of Ronan Farrow and pedophiles, well, that certainly, that's hitting close to home, isn't it?

00:11:45.900 Ronan Farrow was the journalist who finally broke the Weinstein story that everybody knew about but no one would publish.

00:11:52.860 I guess the fact that Farrow himself is a celebrity and he came from that dysfunctional Woody Allen family himself meant that he had a bit of immunity to the kinds of threats of blacklisting and blackballing that everyone else buckled under in Hollywood.

00:12:06.760 Lots of angry faces from the crowd of Hollywood types.

00:12:10.500 Some were smiling along, some weren't.

00:12:14.780 I think that was my favorite part, showing the reaction of all those rich, powerful, immune people being called out on their own turf.

00:12:24.860 I think that was funnier than the actual jokes.

00:12:28.160 All right.

00:12:28.680 It geared down a little bit.

00:12:29.920 Take a look at this.

00:12:30.800 Many talented people of color were snubbed in major categories.

00:12:35.400 Unfortunately, there's nothing we can do about that.

00:12:37.280 The Hollywood foreign press are all very, very racist.

00:12:40.560 So, fifth time.

00:12:43.640 So, we were going to do an in memoriam this year.

00:12:48.480 But when I saw the list of people that had died, it wasn't diverse enough.

00:12:52.680 It just, no.

00:12:53.380 It was mostly white people.

00:12:57.260 And I thought, nah, not on my watch.

00:13:01.640 Maybe next year.

00:13:02.920 Let's see what happens.

00:13:06.860 That's sort of funny.

00:13:08.380 But look, they don't care about that stuff.

00:13:10.180 The Hollywood elite is pretty comfortable with who they are.

00:13:13.160 But this next part was just great. 0.97

00:13:15.380 One more dig about rape and child rape, which seems to be rampant in Hollywood. 0.64

00:13:21.760 Take a look.

00:13:22.180 You could binge watch the entire first season of Afterlife instead of watching this show.

00:13:27.720 That's a show about a man who wants to kill himself because his wife dies of cancer.

00:13:32.900 And it's still more fun than this.

00:13:34.900 Okay?

00:13:36.820 Spoiler alert.

00:13:38.020 Season two is on the way.

00:13:39.700 So, in the end, he obviously didn't kill himself.

00:13:42.240 Just like Jeffrey Epstein. 1.00

00:13:44.840 Shut up. 1.00

00:13:45.960 I know he's your friend, but I don't care. 0.99

00:13:47.920 You'd think they'd be laughing or booing Epstein a little more than their first reaction there.

00:13:55.780 But they weren't.

00:13:57.100 They were just like they weren't really booing Weinstein because they knew about it.

00:14:03.140 Of course they knew about it.

00:14:04.300 And they were fine enough with it.

00:14:06.580 Here's some light humour as it went.

00:14:09.500 The Irishman was amazing.

00:14:12.040 It was amazing.

00:14:13.320 It was.

00:14:15.560 It was great.

00:14:19.760 Long, but amazing.

00:14:21.740 It wasn't the only epic movie.

00:14:24.940 Once upon a time in Hollywood, nearly three hours long, Leonardo DiCaprio attended the premiere.

00:14:30.420 And by the end, his date was too old for him.

00:14:39.380 Even Prince Andrew's like, come on, Leo, mate.

00:14:42.140 You know.

00:14:43.880 You're nearly 50, son.

00:14:45.300 That's sort of funny.

00:14:48.100 But Leonardo DiCaprio doesn't hide the fact that he dates 20-something models.

00:14:52.260 That doesn't shame him.

00:14:53.660 He wants you to know it.

00:14:55.760 And the yachts and the private jets.

00:14:57.980 But they all think they're good people.

00:15:00.460 Better than you, even.

00:15:01.660 That's why this next part was my absolute favourite of the night.

00:15:07.920 With the preening CEO of Apple Computers right there.

00:15:13.060 Why was he there?

00:15:14.220 Well, take a look.

00:15:16.200 Apple roared into the TV game with a morning show.

00:15:20.260 A superb drama.

00:15:21.460 Yeah.

00:15:24.280 A superb drama about the importance of dignity and doing the right thing.

00:15:29.360 Made by a company that runs sweatshops in China.

00:15:32.420 So, well, you say you won't, but the companies you work for, I mean, unbelievable.

00:15:36.500 Apple, Amazon, Disney.

00:15:38.560 If ISIS started a streaming service, you'd call your agent, wouldn't you?

00:15:42.380 Which is perfect and absolutely true.

00:15:46.360 Apple broke labor laws in China.

00:15:50.260 That's widely reported.

00:15:52.480 You don't say.

00:15:53.160 The only surprising thing there is that China had any labor laws to break.

00:15:56.900 That's a shocking part of the story to me.

00:15:58.040 But seriously, when was the last time anyone took on Hollywood, plus China, plus the big tech companies like Apple, all in one sentence?

00:16:07.520 Well, Ricky Gervais just did.

00:16:08.660 That was perfect.

00:16:09.160 And he wrapped up his opening monologue thusly.

00:16:13.380 So, if you do win an award tonight, don't use it as a platform to make a political speech, right?

00:16:19.940 You're in no position to lecture the public about anything.

00:16:22.980 You know nothing about the real world.

00:16:24.960 Most of you spent less time in school than Greta Thunberg.

00:16:27.860 So, if you win, right, come up, accept your little award, thank your agent and your God.

00:16:41.780 It's already three hours long.

00:16:46.560 Right, let's do the first award.

00:16:48.280 The first award.

00:16:49.260 There was some silence there when he was swearing, which added to the fun.

00:16:56.500 I like it.

00:16:57.140 I like the zinger about St. Greta.

00:17:01.600 How dare you?

00:17:03.880 Who's got the courage to take her on in Hollywood?

00:17:06.400 I love it.

00:17:07.080 And I think he took a lot of the air out of the balloon.

00:17:09.800 I think there were a lot of stars who were planning to rant about Donald Trump or whatever.

00:17:15.400 And after that lecture from Ricky Gervais, I think some of them decided to dial it back a bit.

00:17:22.140 Not everybody.

00:17:23.660 Jennifer Aniston, who's still around, I guess, she read a pre-written letter about Australia's bushfires.

00:17:32.700 As you know, 200 people have been arrested by police for arson across Australia.

00:17:41.500 Even a firefighter has been charged with arson, bizarrely.

00:17:44.760 Arson, that means people lighting fires on purpose.

00:17:47.920 But Jennifer Aniston, on behalf of an Australian actor, had to lecture the rest of the world about global warming.

00:17:55.380 Russell Crowe could not be here with us tonight because he is at home in Australia,

00:18:00.820 protecting his family from the devastating bushfires.

00:18:04.760 He sent along this message in case he won.

00:18:08.460 Make no mistake, the tragedy unfolding in Australia is climate change based.

00:18:13.460 We need to act based on science, move our global workforce to renewable energy,

00:18:19.620 and respect our planet for the unique and amazing place it is.

00:18:23.760 That way, we all have a future.

00:18:26.040 Thank you.

00:18:26.640 How many times has Russell Crowe or Jennifer Aniston taken a private jet?

00:18:34.540 How many private jets in that room alone?

00:18:37.240 Amazingly, one of the stars actually picked up where Gervais left off.

00:18:43.720 Here's Joaquin Phoenix lecturing not Americans, but the Hollywood celebrities in the room.

00:18:51.340 Listen to this.

00:18:52.420 It's great to vote, but sometimes we have to take that responsibility on ourselves

00:18:58.140 and make changes and sacrifices in our own lives, and I hope that we can do that.

00:19:03.680 We don't have to take private jets to Palm Springs for the war sometimes or back.

00:19:08.360 Please.

00:19:09.260 And I'll try to do better, and I hope you will too.

00:19:11.320 Thank you so much for putting up with me.

00:19:13.140 I'm so grateful.

00:19:14.420 I'm so grateful for this night and all of you.

00:19:16.620 That's pretty amazing, lecturing the celebrities about jetting from L.A. to Palm Springs.

00:19:24.900 It was amazing.

00:19:25.400 Notice how they put the music up pretty quickly to cut them off.

00:19:29.400 Well, Ricky Gervais did his job, and the suck-up media, the access media,

00:19:34.940 the media that lives off the table scraps from the stars, they knew what they had to do.

00:19:40.020 Ricky Gervais was right.

00:19:41.380 That probably was the last gig he'll get hosting a celebrity show.

00:19:46.620 He doesn't care.

00:19:47.320 He's a comedian from the United Kingdom.

00:19:48.860 What does he care?

00:19:49.760 But the local courtiers or courtesans might be more accurate.

00:19:53.660 They knew they had to defend the honor of their people, their benefactors.

00:19:58.340 Look at this.

00:19:59.560 The Golden Globe's mood was already sober thanks to an impeachment, threat of war with Iran,

00:20:07.200 and Australian bushfires. 0.98

00:20:09.280 The last thing anyone needed was Ricky Gervais there telling them they sucked. 0.96

00:20:14.500 That's from a writer at the L.A. Times. 0.94

00:20:16.920 Yeah, come on, guys.

00:20:17.720 The millionaires in that room were all so glum because in Australia there's bushfires.

00:20:25.320 So be extra nice to these millionaires, okay?

00:20:28.100 They've had a really tough go with it, especially when you tell them how awful.

00:20:32.240 When they tell you how awful you are, don't push back.

00:20:36.000 Like, here's a line from that same writer in her larger piece in the L.A. Times.

00:20:41.440 The last thing anyone needed was for the smirking master of ceremonies to reprimand them for having hope

00:20:47.780 or taunt the room for trying to use their influence to change things for the better.

00:20:52.760 Oh, man, smirking, that is the worst unless you're a smirking Hollywood actor smirking at you and me.

00:21:00.220 And, I mean, guys, come on.

00:21:01.920 They try to use their influence to change things for the better, like Rose McGowan and Leo DiCaprio.

00:21:07.780 He's yachting and jetting around to change the world for the better, guys.

00:21:12.340 I liked that show.

00:21:14.640 The only part I watched was Ricky Gervais.

00:21:18.560 I'll keep an eye peeled for him a bit more.

00:21:20.780 I've seen him in a few things.

00:21:21.940 I might seek him out.

00:21:23.640 I mean, he's a liberal, of course.

00:21:25.480 But like Bill Maher of HBO, he's a rare liberal.

00:21:28.820 He's an equal opportunity liberal.

00:21:30.960 He tries to be consistent, tries to jab all sides.

00:21:33.580 He's not just a partisan hack, which is why he can still be funny.

00:21:37.080 Unlike the strictly partisan hacks at Saturday Night Live or Canada's lame 22 Minutes, Ricky Gervais is a rare comedian, one who mocks power, not one who sucks up to it.

00:21:51.300 Stay with us for more.

00:21:52.400 Stay with us for more.

00:22:22.400 Stay with us for displaying a picture of the general, ma'am.

00:22:24.160 Stay with us for him.

00:22:25.480 Stay with us for him.

00:22:26.020 Stay with us for general.

00:22:27.000 Was he a great man?

00:22:30.220 Yeah, very good man.

00:22:31.500 Very good man.

00:22:32.260 He's great.

00:22:33.140 He's great.

00:22:33.800 Isn't Iran the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world?

00:22:37.940 Excuse me?

00:22:38.820 Isn't Iran the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world?

00:22:41.520 Actually, I believe that the U.S. is, but hey.

00:22:43.460 Some chilling footage from our very own city of Toronto, David Menzies, out on Saturday night.

00:22:49.160 Hundreds of supporters of the deceased terrorist general, Qasem Soleimani.

00:22:57.600 We saw similar vigils across Canada.

00:23:01.320 In fact, they left a little shrine to him in various cities, including outside the Alberta legislature.

00:23:07.360 What was so disappointing in the Toronto event is that police threatened to arrest our own reporter, David Menzies,

00:23:15.800 for referring to Soleimani as a terrorist, saying that to do so in the presence of his supporters would be to incite some sort of breach of the peace.

00:23:28.760 It was really quite shocking.

00:23:29.960 I recommend to you the full video on YouTube, on our channel.

00:23:34.520 But what about the larger issue of the targeted attack on Soleimani?

00:23:40.980 Will it create a new war, or is it just another in the endless back and forth in a troubled region?

00:23:48.460 Joining us now via Skype to talk about that question is our friend Dr. Daniel Pipes, the president of the Middle East Forum.

00:23:55.120 Professor Pipes, great to see you again.

00:23:56.440 Thanks for being here.

00:23:57.160 Hello, Ezra.

00:23:57.980 Hello, good to see you.

00:24:00.100 What do you make of this?

00:24:01.120 I mean, critics around the world seem to suggest we're on the brink of World War III.

00:24:06.740 Is that true?

00:24:08.380 I don't think so, no.

00:24:10.700 Don't think so, because while the Iranians have focused on asymmetric warfare, let us say, hitting soft targets, cyber warfare, and the like, 0.97

00:24:23.340 they are, I believe, very reluctant to take on the United States, mono-mono, in a normal, old-style military war.

00:24:31.820 No, this is not World War III.

00:24:33.760 It can be all sorts of trouble.

00:24:34.920 They can attack the Israelis and Jewish interests, the Saudis and Maratis, but I don't think they're going to be attacking the United States frontally.

00:24:43.520 I can't imagine it.

00:24:44.400 I mean, they don't have the power.

00:24:45.300 You know, I think it was Senator Lindsey Graham, who's a bit of an Iran hawk, who talked about oil refineries.

00:24:53.380 Donald Trump talked about 52 targets, a symbolic number he chose because of 52 hostages back in the 70s.

00:25:01.360 If America were to attack a single oil refinery in Iran, I mean, that would cause the world price to spike a few bucks, that's for sure,

00:25:11.880 but I think it would be devastating to Iran in a way that they haven't been hurt in really 40 years.

00:25:18.860 That's my own hunch based on what little I know about oil and the oil industry and the sanctions.

00:25:23.860 I think Iran's afraid because whatever damage they can do to others, a few missiles could knock out their huge source of foreign cash.

00:25:33.460 That's my thought.

00:25:34.120 What do you think?

00:25:35.260 No, I'm in agreement.

00:25:36.780 The Iranian leadership is rational.

00:25:39.620 It's not crazy, and I can't imagine that they would take on the U.S. forces in a direct confrontation.

00:25:47.300 They'll do other things, but it won't be World War III.

00:25:51.560 Furthermore, I don't think that this is all that significant event in terms of Iranian capabilities.

00:25:58.120 Soleimani was an operative.

00:26:00.440 He was someone who executed the ideas of others.

00:26:04.460 Khamenei, the supreme guide, is the key person in Iran.

00:26:10.000 Soleimani was his aide.

00:26:11.760 Soleimani will be replaced.

00:26:13.300 Maybe the replacement will be less competent than him.

00:26:16.300 Maybe it will be more competent than him, but it won't be that much of a difference.

00:26:20.200 It's not the same as assassinating a head of state, executing a head of state.

00:26:25.960 That's a different story.

00:26:27.040 That can lead to major, major shifts.

00:26:29.120 This won't.

00:26:29.940 This is rather minor.

00:26:31.000 I don't think a year from now we'll be talking much about Khamenei and Soleimani.

00:26:34.500 You know, I read a report in the New York Times, and it's always very dangerous to put too much stock in a New York Times process story about what was Trump thinking.

00:26:46.180 Because I don't think the New York Times knows, and anyone who's leaking or gossiping to the New York Times probably doesn't know.

00:26:53.100 But they seem to imply in several of their reports that the generals put, or the national security team, whoever, put to Trump the targeted killing of Soleimani as sort of a crazy outlier idea to make other proposals look more sane.

00:27:12.720 And they were shocked that Trump went for it.

00:27:15.420 I don't know, I find that story irritating.

00:27:19.260 It suggests that the security establishment is trying to game Donald Trump, but maybe.

00:27:25.860 But without going into the details of their purposes and the like, it is shocking.

00:27:31.320 Because after all, Trump had been in retreat in the Middle East.

00:27:34.760 He had welcomed the Turks to batter our Kurdish allies in Syria.

00:27:39.440 He had not responded to the Iranian attack on two Saudi oil installations.

00:27:44.520 So it looked like he was being passive.

00:27:46.760 And then this.

00:27:47.840 It goes to show that we cannot predict Donald Trump.

00:27:51.080 Now, in some ways, that's an advantage.

00:27:52.460 He's a cowboy, and you've got to be careful if you're an opponent.

00:27:55.420 But otherwise, it's a real problem, because allies and even Americans don't know what our policy is.

00:28:01.220 We don't know what to expect.

00:28:02.800 So it was a surprise.

00:28:04.640 I think nobody expected this, and anyone who now retroactively says, oh, I was expecting this all along is making it up.

00:28:11.500 None of us expected this.

00:28:12.820 It's not what American policy was.

00:28:15.280 Well, here's my theory, and again, I certainly didn't predict it, but if I had to try and backfill a rationale, here's my sense of it.

00:28:22.640 I remember on December 31st watching the shocking images of local militias in Baghdad, Iraq, trying to smash their way into the embassy.

00:28:32.800 And the embassy sort of just looking like it was going to take it.

00:28:36.220 No real muscular defense.

00:28:38.120 And I immediately thought of Benghazi, because I had thought so much about that in, I guess, the seven years since that event.

00:28:46.380 And I think Trump was alive to those optics, too, because he immediately tweeted, this is the anti-Benghazi.

00:28:53.620 We sent help right away.

00:28:55.500 And I think this is my own retroactive explanation.

00:28:59.980 Trump was so frustrated by how that made him look weak, like Jimmy Carter, like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton,

00:29:07.520 that he, because it was an attack on an embassy, which is symbolically and legally and diplomatically and sovereignty-wise,

00:29:15.900 actually American turf, like it's almost like attacking America proper,

00:29:22.400 that this was more odious to him than the Turks going into Syria or handing over an American base to the Russians.

00:29:30.300 This pricked him more, because this went to his identity as a protector of America, that embassy was his.

00:29:37.540 And that's my theory of why he hit that heavy option, because this was a whole personal attack,

00:29:45.560 he felt, on America on his watch, that if it went wrong, would have been his Benghazi.

00:29:51.140 That's my theory.

00:29:51.960 What do you make of that?

00:29:53.440 It makes sense.

00:29:54.340 It's also the fact that an American had been murdered just some days before by Iranian-backed forces.

00:30:00.280 Also the fact that the Iranians seemed to be up to more things, that there were plans in the works. 0.98

00:30:06.760 So, yeah, this combination makes sense.

00:30:08.640 But, again, it was not at all the way, the drift of American foreign policy under Donald Trump, or, indeed, under anyone.

00:30:16.440 I mean, the surprising thing about U.S.-Iranian relations now, 41 years since the Islamic Republic came into existence,

00:30:25.700 is that with only one or two exceptions, way back in the beginning, we have not militarily confronted them.

00:30:32.380 We have economically confronted them, but not militarily.

00:30:35.160 So this is quite a shock.

00:30:36.540 This is 40 years later.

00:30:38.020 There has not been anything in between.

00:30:39.560 You know, there's a question of allies, and, of course, Boris Johnson came under tremendous pressure to distance himself from Trump.

00:30:49.960 And Justin Trudeau, he was on vacation in Costa Rica two and a half weeks, so his foreign minister put out a statement that was very, it was equivocating.

00:31:02.020 It was saying we urge both sides to de-escalate.

00:31:04.900 I thought that was discrediting for Canada, but whatever the frayed alliance on the ally side, I have to note that Iran wasn't exactly brimming with its defenders either.

00:31:19.440 At least that's how it seemed to me.

00:31:20.800 The Russians put out a statement that they weren't pleased with this, but it seemed like not a lot of, there wasn't this great rising up in defense of Iran.

00:31:30.080 Am I wrong?

00:31:31.340 I think you're right.

00:31:32.260 It was an attack on Trump rather than the defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

00:31:38.520 Yeah.

00:31:39.860 Now, Iran has a lot of fingers around the world, and this Qasem Soleimani, it sounds like his job was to create these surrogate forces, whether it was in Syria or Hezbollah or elsewhere around the world.

00:31:54.840 In a way, that gives Iran a method to fight back against the great Satan without using its formal military. 0.70

00:32:05.980 I think its formal military would be wiped out in hours if it had a direct confrontation.

00:32:10.940 But you have Hezbollah launch rockets at Israel.

00:32:13.060 You blow up a Jewish center like Iran did in Buenos Aires a few decades ago. 1.00

00:32:19.140 Harder to trace back, harder to hit back symmetrically.

00:32:22.560 I'm actually worried about those very projects that Qasem Soleimani was working on, the asymmetrical style of warfare.

00:32:30.220 What do you think?

00:32:30.900 Yeah, no, I'm sorry to agree with you time again, but yes, that's what the Iranians have specialized in.

00:32:38.260 And that is generally what weaker countries do, is they focus on asymmetric warfare and not confronting one-on-one the larger power,

00:32:47.040 but looking for ways to undermine it, to discourage investment there, to cause casualties, to interfere with communications, and so forth.

00:33:02.880 And it works.

00:33:04.140 It is quite easy to do compared to military communication.

00:33:08.800 No pressure.

00:33:09.700 And that's what the Iranians have done for decades, and it's likely what they'll do today. 1.00

00:33:13.300 I think that Donald Trump, I wouldn't call him an isolationist, because he's certainly pressing NATO allies to beef up their work,

00:33:23.620 and he smacks back hard at anyone who seems to cross him.

00:33:28.540 But I think he's withdrawing from what he considers to be foreign adventures.

00:33:35.580 He's just walking away from Syria in many ways. 0.98

00:33:38.240 I think he's lost senior advisors over it.

00:33:40.700 I think he lost his last defense minister.

00:33:42.540 Defense secretary over it.

00:33:44.160 I have no doubt it was part of his disagreement with John Bolton.

00:33:48.500 I think that Donald Trump is still de-escalating and withdrawing American forces around the world.

00:33:56.180 And this was just, he just couldn't resist smacking back because it made him look like he was retreating if he would cave into that.

00:34:04.560 I think Donald Trump is still withdrawing.

00:34:08.000 You're turning into a Trump doctrine.

00:34:11.080 I don't think there is such a thing.

00:34:12.260 I think it is an incoherent, inconsistent set of actions which depend on his mood at any given time.

00:34:19.900 I don't think that one can turn it into a doctrine.

00:34:23.000 It is not consistent.

00:34:26.940 Anything you'll give me, I can give you something in the opposite direction.

00:34:31.100 Because even, for example, even before this, while there was the withdrawal of American troops from Syria, there was an additional, roughly the same number of troops going to Saudi Arabia.

00:34:41.560 So, well, where's the logic?

00:34:44.780 What's the doctrine?

00:34:45.660 I don't see it.

00:34:46.560 No, I don't see a doctrine.

00:34:48.540 I do see someone who does not have a philosophy, but who responds to brush fires as they take place and responds differently on different occasions, depending on the mood, the circumstances, what he had for breakfast, the impeachment, the campaign for re-election.

00:35:05.580 Who knows what?

00:35:06.100 Who knows what makes, goes into a decision.

00:35:09.940 There's a lot of people in that neighborhood that want a confrontation with Iran.

00:35:14.520 Israel is certainly threatened by Iran's nuclear program.

00:35:17.460 Saudi Arabia, some of the other Gulf states, there's sort of an anti-Iran coalition there.

00:35:23.820 And I think some of them have been stopped.

00:35:28.580 I understand that the U.S. administration actually stopped Israel from taking out Soleimani on a previous occasion.

00:35:36.200 So there's a lot of folks who want to take on Iran. 0.96

00:35:39.260 Do you think that the balance of power in the region is changed at all, even if nothing else comes from this?

00:35:47.140 No, not at all.

00:35:48.220 As I said before, he's an operative.

00:35:49.880 He was an operative.

00:35:50.880 He's not a key figure.

00:35:52.180 You know, a general, not a decision maker.

00:35:57.460 Now, maybe he was a particularly good general.

00:36:00.000 I don't know.

00:36:01.460 He was a good general.

00:36:02.960 Maybe a successor, Ismail Khan, will be as good or better.

00:36:08.080 This has happened before, that an operative is taken out and a successor is no less competent.

00:36:13.920 No, I don't see any fundamental change, and I don't see World War III, and I don't see this being remembered a year from now.

00:36:18.960 I see this as a rather minor event that's getting a lot of attention.

00:36:22.180 Well, let me ask you one last question about it.

00:36:24.060 The kind of language coming out of Tehran is bluster and vengeance and death to America. 1.00

00:36:30.460 And the language coming out of Trump's Twitter feed, which I think is the most accurate weathervane of American diplomacy, because it's by the guy who's calling the shots, is we're even now.

00:36:43.180 Don't hit us again or we'll hit you 52-fold.

00:36:46.300 So I think in Trump's mind, Iran did a couple of bad things.

00:36:50.940 America smacked back, and they're even, I think.

00:36:53.920 Whereas the language out of Tehran, again, and you correct me if I'm wrong, is we will avenge this, you've done us a great dishonor.

00:37:04.280 So it feels like, to me, if you take the Iranians at their word, they feel humiliated and slighted, and there's a need for vengeance. 0.99

00:37:11.880 And I guess that's why I wonder, if nothing else happens, has Iran been taken down a peg in the world's eye and in the eye of their own people? 0.99

00:37:22.060 If the Iranians do not respond forcefully against Americans, which I don't think they will, then they will have been knocked down a peg. 0.98

00:37:31.640 But they can come back a peg quite easily.

00:37:34.100 There's a lot of things they can do, for example, against the Saudis or the Emiratis or the Israelis or others.

00:37:40.460 They don't have to do it against the Americans.

00:37:42.480 But to me, the real question is, what is next in American foreign policy?

00:37:46.400 So is this a one-off, or is this a change in policy towards Iran?

00:37:50.760 If it's a one-off, it's of no particular significance.

00:37:53.200 If it's a change in policy towards Iran, it's a major event.

00:37:57.160 And this is a turning point.

00:37:59.520 And maybe the U.S. policy now, for the next year and perhaps longer, will be that we want a change of regime.

00:38:08.380 We want to really punish the Iranians for their behavior. 1.00

00:38:12.740 That would be big news.

00:38:14.360 But so far, there's no indication of that.

00:38:16.180 And as I suggested before, there's no Trump doctrine, and there's no way of predicting it.

00:38:21.140 And he does seem inclined to want not to get involved in foreign wars.

00:38:25.860 So I don't think this is a major event.

00:38:28.620 I think it's a dramatic event, in some ways a spectacular event, but it's not a very important one.

00:38:34.540 And I know I'm in a small minority of this, but there you have it.

00:38:37.500 No, you know, as the days pass, I'm coming to your way of thinking.

00:38:43.640 It's funny, I spend too much time on Twitter, and even worse, there's a new social media app that the kids like called TikTok.

00:38:50.940 I'd say the average age is maybe 20.

00:38:53.180 And the number one theme is World War III, are we going to be conscripted?

00:38:56.940 But I think that that's the accelerating echo chambers of people who know little but like to give hot takes.

00:39:08.600 I think that maybe the cooler heads, even in Tehran, say, okay, let's just slowly back away here before we get our refinery blown up.

00:39:16.040 And I think Donald Trump feels pretty good about a precision strike.

00:39:18.720 I mean, I have to say, to have that kind of precision strike within 48 hours of the offense, that kind of accuracy, but also restraint.

00:39:28.800 He didn't flatten the whole apartment block.

00:39:31.280 He didn't blow up hundreds of collateral damage.

00:39:33.720 I have to say that despite the New York Times mocking him, that's a hell of an operation to achieve within 48 hours of an offense.

00:39:41.980 Yeah, extraordinary intelligence and extraordinary military capabilities to be so precise so quickly.

00:39:47.400 So, yeah, no question.

00:39:48.500 Very, very impressive.

00:39:50.360 Well, we'll see how things go in the weeks ahead.

00:39:52.480 Dr. Pipes, it's always great to have you on the show.

00:39:54.360 Thanks for your time today.

00:39:55.060 Good to chat.

00:39:56.020 All right, there you have it.

00:39:57.520 Well, you're always welcome back on the show, that's for sure.

00:40:00.200 That's Dr. Daniel Pipes.

00:40:01.620 He's the president of the Middle East Forum.

00:40:03.960 Stay with us.

00:40:04.480 More ahead on the level.

00:40:05.100 On my monologue Friday about America taking out Iranian General Soleimani, Sandy writes,

00:40:20.360 Orange man bad. 0.78

00:40:21.420 If Trump didn't react, he's weak. 1.00

00:40:22.940 If he attacks, he's crazy. 0.95

00:40:24.520 Trump 2020.

00:40:25.560 Yeah, as our friend Daniel Pipes points out, it might not actually be that big a deal, other than everyone has their interest in making it a big deal.

00:40:35.900 American Democrats and Iran itself.

00:40:38.340 I don't know.

00:40:38.920 I think it's a medium-sized deal.

00:40:41.060 I'm glad it happened.

00:40:42.860 Sean writes, terrorists are very fortunate to have allies like Democrats.

00:40:47.220 Yeah, I tell you, some of their language, some of their messaging was identical in the aftermath.

00:40:53.680 Chad writes, anybody who kills an American abroad is a target.

00:40:57.580 Should be easy to understand.

00:41:00.040 Yeah, and that's something that has not been the case for decades.

00:41:04.200 If I was an Iranian, if I was Somali, if I was Al-Shabaab in East Africa, if I was North Korea,

00:41:12.020 I would think twice about laying a finger on an American.

00:41:15.160 Well, that's our show for today.

00:41:16.380 Until next time, on behalf of all of us here at Rebel Wolf Headquarters, good night and keep fighting for freedom.

Rebel News Podcast - January 07, 2020

British comedian Ricky Gervais lets loose on smug, hypocritical celebrity elites as Golden Globes host

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