00:00:24.940I'm saying we keep on the trajectory, and I'll see how we get off of it.
00:00:27.380what is it depression and what type of depression it's a it's a depression but it's different than
00:00:34.100the depression of of the 1930s which back then basically when when you had depressed prices when
00:00:42.060people weren't working that's a depression that's the economic cycle they lowered prices to try to
00:00:47.460stimulate buying again right and so this time though the mechanics are different you print
00:00:53.520money to actually stimulate the economy when nobody is buying you know it's kind of like the
00:00:58.580field of dreams so we're going to have more of what the germans had in the great depression
00:01:01.940inflationary depression yeah it's an inflationary depression it's like the late 70s to put it back
00:01:06.940in a more modern day context which was stinky economy people weren't working inflation was high
00:01:13.860energy crisis and so energy crisis i mean the parallels are so similar so how did they end up
00:01:20.940slowing that down and slowing down that inflation. Reagan jacked up interest rates to 18%.
00:01:27.220Then ultimately, they were sky high. Then what did he do? He lowered taxes, individual taxes,
00:01:33.720corporate taxes, payroll taxes, personal taxes, and interest rates started coming down and he
00:01:38.920created 20 years of success. But you had to slow down inflation first. That's what I see coming.
00:01:45.940And so what we've just started to see is the beginning of currency wars that started because of the physical war that we're seeing in Iran with inflation, right?
00:01:55.540So you raise interest rates to slow down inflation.
00:02:08.600We're going into a world of competitive devaluations where countries are going to start raising rates, not just to slow down inflation, but to attract foreign capital from other countries that is going to start moving into the country that has the higher.
00:02:24.600And that's why Trump was trying to get everybody to invest here up front, was to already get that avalanche going this way, which was a good thing.
00:02:30.900And then you also have Trump moving more of his assets out of BlackRock growth funds into Berkshire Hathaway that's betting on a collapse.
00:02:40.120When I saw that two months ago, I thought, well, there's, I mean, Trump is now betting on a collapse.
00:04:11.960And people ultimately just stop listening to that and realize this is going to go on for a while.
00:04:18.540Right. When when the extreme becomes normal investors, whether it's hedge funds or central banks or big, huge international money center banks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America or individual investors like us, we start to look at the fundamentals because we realize the noise is noise and this might just continue to go on for a while.
00:04:41.340right so so these are the kind of things that you and i warned about um i don't know i think
00:04:48.820when was when did this start february um it started like 208 days ago or whatever we warned
00:04:55.020about it long before like a year before you warned if trump got back in this could be what derailed
00:04:59.440him yeah i mean i i i think sadly it can i mean even even just the last week okay let's just look
00:05:08.540at what's happened over the last week um more and more rhetoric that this this war is going to
00:05:14.220continue to go on for a while no matter what kind of diplomatic talks that they have about it no
00:05:19.660matter what kind of military apparatus they bring at it it's like this keeps going on right so so
00:05:25.760the price of oil keeps clipping upward and upward and upward so about what was it alex a week and a
00:05:32.420half ago, we had this Federal Reserve announcement. And this is one of the things that we warned
00:05:39.260about, that, you know, the price of oil goes up because this conflict keeps going on. They're
00:05:44.360going to have to raise interest rates to slow it down. See, this is in basically opposition to what
00:05:52.960Trump said needs to be done to stimulate the economy. And he's not wrong. You need to lower
00:05:57.540interest rates to stimulate the economy and to save some things right so we'll go over some of
00:06:02.700that but but really you you've had this battle between scott besant at the treasury and kevin
00:06:10.560warsh at the fed so both of them basically want to help save america right they just have different
00:06:19.200angles of doing it so what is scott besant doing he's basically not so there's normal treasury
00:06:27.460operations of two billion dollars per operation to help bail out the treasury market to help bail
00:06:33.360out the bonds well he said we're going to double that to four billion dollar operations and then
00:06:38.300the very first one that they did was six billion dollars right so that's that's triple what they
00:06:46.440normally would do that's inflationary right so when you have inflation and you have the war
00:06:52.180increasing or not going away that price of oil is inflationary so what do you do if you're in
00:07:00.940charge of interest rates right and and the goal of the fed is to stabilize prices right that's
00:07:08.300one of their goals to to basically make sure you have full employment sure but both ways aren't
00:07:12.860going to work you've been an expert at explaining all this that if they if they don't cut if they
00:07:17.260don't increase the interest rates, it accelerates inflation. But if they don't increase interest
00:07:22.580rates, then it's going to cause all these problems. And so from what I've been reading
00:07:28.260and what I've been seeing, I think we're in such a pickle now, none of it really even matters.
00:07:32.500It doesn't matter. I mean, see, this is this. You're exactly right. See, this is the pickle.
00:07:38.940You've got two people. Trump vetted hard for one of them. Right. And and he basically appointed
00:07:46.380one of them he appointed scott percent right he's he's you know works for the executive department
00:07:51.500and then he vetted hard for kevin wars they're both opposite policies right it's like what is
00:07:58.580going on here shouldn't they be on the same team but sent is creating inflation to do what save
00:08:04.520the bond market monetize the bond he's using treasury operations to buy bonds so japan doesn't
00:08:11.280sell him i get what he's doing i get it but it creates inflation and and and it hasn't worked
00:08:17.460it seemed as you predicted when it started spooked the bond market spooked it hard i mean interest
00:08:23.280rates went up the day after because the whole world realizes that the emperor has no clothes
00:08:27.780so then what we predicted was who has who is going to win whoever has their button on the on the you
00:08:36.040know their finger on the button last which would be kevin warsh because if basent is creating
00:08:41.580inflation to save the bond market and and and kevin warsh sees inflation he's going to say we've got
00:08:47.960to raise rates to actually slow down this inflation which is exactly what happened so they had this
00:08:53.860announcement like a week and a half ago he raised rates a quarter of a point well one and done isn't
00:09:00.820enough on this. A 25 basis point rate increase isn't going to fix anything. And by the way,
00:09:07.480Trump attacked him, his darling. So where do you see this going with all the other numbers? How bad
00:09:13.580is the Red Sea situation, the Strait of Hormuz, the pipeline blown up, the Ukraine war? I mean,
00:09:18.400all of it is diesel at all time highs, everything exploding. I mean, this has got, as you said
00:09:25.060months ago, this is going to be really bad, but it goes from bad to worse. If it continues to stay
00:09:29.440close. As the Pentagon told Trump, they're not going to even negotiate until he's out of office
00:09:32.7202029. Trump's talking about nuking him. I mean, where does this go?
00:09:37.500Well, it goes from bad to worse, sadly. I mean, when you have that kind of
00:09:44.240geopolitical conflict going on, the price of oil is going to go up, right? So here's where there's
00:09:51.260inflation, right? And Kevin Warsh is going to want to decrease that. So in his statement,
00:09:58.000he didn't just stop at one 25 basis point or a quarter of a point increase he said over the next
00:10:05.380couple of quarters we're probably going to have two to three more right so it's like oh wow he
00:10:10.920just said we're going to have two to three more rate increases i was actually even though we
00:10:15.460predicted it i was shocked that they actually raised rates before the midterm elections i
00:10:21.360didn't think they would do it until december but he's seeing it as such a problem that he said
00:10:26.560political consequences aside we've got to raise rates now because inflation is a pickle and he
00:10:32.320probably is saying we don't see this conflict in iran ending anytime soon well you know who else
00:10:38.400doesn't is beset or else they wouldn't actually have tripled treasury operations to to bail out
00:10:47.820the u.s bond market right people don't know that's why my republic stuff and then you add
00:10:51.920But with this global live time bans and fines and sanctions, if anybody lets Iranian airlines land, the whole world's basically thumbing their nose saying, screw you.
00:11:04.000That accelerates moving away from the dollar.
00:11:25.160So here's where the opposite is starting to happen in the finance economics world, right?
00:11:31.960So historically, if you go back throughout time, Alex, like to the beginning of measurement of things,
00:11:39.600when interest rates rise, generally gold and silver don't do very well, right?
00:11:45.500Why? Because people who are on fixed income, they say, wait a second, interest rates are going up.
00:11:51.640Let's go into bonds because we want income from these higher interest rates.
00:11:55.400So therefore, there's no need to look for something that's growing faster than other asset classes like gold and silver because the attractiveness of yield is there.
00:12:06.080Here's the problem with this in today's world.
00:12:09.640You know, and I've heard these comments on CNBC and other places on, you know, with the financial news talking heads.
00:12:15.140it's like, oh, rising interest rates is so great because people who have savings accounts are
00:12:19.760finally going to get higher yields on their savings. It's like, what a dumb statement
00:12:24.900when literally during the heights of COVID in 2020, 30% of Americans had savings accounts,
00:12:31.560now 2.8% do. Who cares if interest rates go higher when you're talking about 2.8% of the
00:12:37.040population? What matters is people can't afford to live, right? So you've got this going on for
00:12:43.740one number two is major international center monetary banks hedge funds central banks around
00:12:51.480the world are starting to view this as wow let's not just look at historically what's happened
00:12:58.480where when interest rates go up gold and silver come down but let's ask why interest rates are
00:13:05.080going up see this is an important distinction because now they're looking at why when when
00:13:09.860the extreme becomes normal people look at the why and start to look at fundamental reasons why
00:13:15.420things go up or down so so you look at what happened in 2025 and 2026 in commodities especially
00:13:24.460in in silver because it's used for industrial purposes and ai chips and electronics and
00:13:29.820everything else you saw the lease rates go through the roof the price soared right we we had silver
00:13:36.960go up 147 percent it corrected in january came down about 50 percent now it's moving sideways
00:13:43.300for six months what's happening now complete paradigm shift right we're starting to see again
00:13:50.180alex that inventories are starting to come in to comex from the rest of the world in silver i'm not
00:13:57.920necessarily talking about gold it's a different story but in silver we're starting to have
00:14:02.900companies and the exchanges hold on to inventories what does that mean there's less silver throughout
00:14:10.240the world to sell to the manufacturers this is a short squeeze about to happen which is
00:14:16.640you predicted that you predicted that months ago so let's do a pitch down for gold and silver
00:14:21.320you're the place to go wholesale great service people need to get into gold and silver obviously
00:14:26.780all the indicators are silver and gold are going to go up what are you thinking right now is
00:14:31.960happening with silver and gold well silver and gold when when when the world starts to look at
00:14:37.080fundamentals we need to look at fundamentals we should have never stopped i'm not talking about
00:14:42.120you and me we always do but the world as a whole they listen to the sound bites now that you look
00:14:47.560at the fundamentals of supply and demand and and it's needed the prices are going to go up alex i
00:14:54.260mean this is this is the basis of everything that we're talking about the noise starts to melt away
00:15:00.520and to a nothing burger. And people look at the fundamentals of what causes markets to move. This
00:15:07.100is what's starting to happen. So how do you take advantage of that? This is, I guess, the gold and
00:15:11.940silver pinch, right? It's like you go into what the world needs. You go into what the world not
00:15:17.420only needs, but that's in short supply, because this is where prices go up. Whenever you have
00:15:23.560low supply and high demand, this is where prices go up. So if you've got IRAs or you've got brokerage
00:15:29.940accounts, and you're thinking, wow, this bond market thing, this isn't very good, right? Because
00:15:35.480as interest rates rise, which Kevin Warsh just said they are going to rise two to three more
00:15:40.320times over the next few months or the next couple of cycles, which might be six months,
00:15:45.900well, then the value of bonds comes down. A declining bond market is going to have an impact
00:15:51.980on the stock market. It impacts both because traditional advisors say, oh, stocks think you're
00:15:58.620going to bonds bonds think you're going to stocks but both of them are tied to debt when people can't
00:16:04.760afford to buy anything they don't so and we're at the end of a super we're at the end of a super
00:16:09.700cycle right now people need to go to kbm.com forward slash gold there's a little free form
00:16:14.380ask for a free consultation if anything they're too low pressure just tell them i want the gold
00:16:18.560i want the silver i want the bullion they've got it right now at wholesale 720-605-3900-720-605-3900
00:16:27.000We're a very smart thing to do, and Kirk's the best sponsor, great sponsor, great quality, and a smart economist.
00:16:33.400We can cover the news, have an economist on, and then also he's a sponsor.
00:16:36.600The gold and silver is, I wouldn't even say secondary.
00:16:38.740It's just a separate thing that connects to it, but one is not even connected to the other.
00:16:43.160We're just simply covering the news and saying silver and gold is a smart move in my belief that we've been born out to be right about that.
00:19:42.440I want to remind them the last time we did this about a year ago, have the shirt at the regular price, have it be their choice whether they want to pay more.
00:21:17.540But I look at people I know, friends, family, neighbors, people around the country on the
00:21:22.440ground, and I look at McDonald's sinking, Wendy's closing 300 stores for the first
00:21:27.940time since they were founded you know in the in the in the 50s not expanding and contracting
00:21:32.960walmart you know retail sells down massively first time really ever uh i mean i look at all
00:21:38.480of this stuff happening and i and i and i see the real numbers and we're in manufacturing we're in
00:21:44.280getting products and you know now it takes us a lot longer to get products whether it's the
00:21:48.720supplement you know quality ingredients or whether it's t-shirts or you know whether it's knives or
00:21:54.080whether it's water filters whatever it is in shambles and it's only going to get worse and i
00:21:58.620can't think trump was this stupid when he did it so it looks like he's just going along with the
00:22:03.120great reset to me he helped kick off the cuba thing he wasn't as bad as the democrats but maybe
00:22:06.960that was all just good cop bad cop but i look at the hard economic numbers coming out and where we
00:22:13.280were on the verge of collapse globally not just us we needed trump's recovery to work as you pointed
00:22:18.120out it was an excellent plan he began to go sideways about six months in his administration
00:22:22.060on the economics a few months before that on Epstein and things.
00:22:25.320So just in a general summation, I really appreciate your time today,
00:22:28.440but we're going to get into Netanyahu in the middle of a speech,
00:22:30.720absolutely out of control, wild stuff, calling them all cowards
00:22:33.960and pledging all sorts of get ready for false flags, folks.
00:22:38.440But just in summation, and we got some time,
00:22:40.900and I'm seeing big picture now, with all the economic data I see coming in,
00:22:45.280am I wrong to have a real serious pucker factor right now?
00:22:48.580You know, you need to have a pucker factor.
00:22:50.380I mean, you look at the numbers that are being spun as positive, like last month, housing sales jumped.
00:22:59.480OK, so people would say, OK, that's good. But why did they go up?
00:23:03.120It's because interest rates went up and people who are selling their house had to lower the price a ton.
00:23:10.760You wrote to accommodate the higher interest rates. So people kindly find.
00:23:14.520So it was panic selling, which they now admit it. Now this month it's dry.
00:23:17.520Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this is not so. So you'll have the main mainstream media of spin. This is a positive. I view it as this isn't good when the only reason houses sold is because people had to sell them at bargain basement prices just to get rid of them.
00:23:32.720So this isn't necessarily positive news, right? So you look at where gold and silver is now on the verge of going up, like literally it's up, silver's up from 56 to 67 in the last two months. I mean, that's great. But why, right? So that's the net positive. But what's the net negative?
00:23:52.700Well, the negative is you're looking at the ambiguity of some of these tariffs, right?
00:23:58.360So companies are starting to bring supply of silver back into the exchanges here.
00:24:05.740They're not going anywhere, which means that silver for sale elsewhere to the Samsungs and the Sonys and the Teslas of the world that all go through London, the supply isn't going to be there.
00:27:28.060Yeah. You should use the D word. I think we are. Well, and it's going to be a global depression.
00:27:35.220Well, I want you to know more than I. I'm asking your real opinion.
00:27:37.760Every prediction you made has basically come true, except gold and silver went up a little bit more than you said it would, a little bit faster.
00:27:43.000And, you know, you always kind of dial things back a little bit, but you've been dead on.
00:27:47.680I'm saying we keep on the trajectory and I'll see how we get off of it.
00:27:50.640What is it depression and what type of depression?
00:27:53.200it's a it's a depression but it's different than the depression of of the 1930s which back then
00:28:01.660basically when when you had depressed prices when people weren't working that's a depression that's
00:28:06.840the economic cycle they lowered prices to try to stimulate buying again right and so this time
00:28:13.100though the mechanics are different you print money to actually stimulate the economy when nobody is
00:28:19.820buying you know it's kind of like the field of dreams so we're going to have more of what the
00:28:23.280germans had in the great depression inflationary depression yeah it's an inflationary depression
00:28:27.680it's like the late 70s to put it back in a more modern day context which was stinky economy people
00:28:34.320weren't working inflation was high energy crisis and so energy crisis i mean the parallels are so
00:28:41.440similar so how did they end up slowing that down and slowing down that inflation race
00:28:46.560Reagan jacked up interest rates to 18 percent. Then ultimately, they were sky high. Then what
00:28:53.020did he do? He lowered taxes, individual taxes, corporate taxes, payroll taxes, personal taxes,
00:28:59.540and interest rates started coming down, and he created 20 years of success, right? But you had
00:29:05.460to slow down inflation first. That's what I see coming, right? But here's where there's a little
00:29:11.140bit of positive in this message, and that is normally throughout history, when interest rates
00:29:16.480rise people didn't invest in gold and silver right because they came down the world is starting to
00:29:21.620see and by the world i'm not just talking about investors like you and me talking about hedge
00:29:25.940funds talking about central banks i'm talking about big huge they all want they all want raw
00:29:30.240material everything is about raw material yes and so when bascent this is wild alex when bascent
00:29:37.580raised rates a quarter of a point what should gold and silver have done historically come down
00:29:43.600did they come down they came down a smidge and very briefly but we're talking like probably hours
00:29:51.180yeah so they're losing they're losing their control of the economy incredible kepm.com
00:29:57.220forward slash gold they'll sign up in the email for a free consultation get into silver and gold
00:30:01.580right now 720-605-3900 last question baked into this now though with 208 days into this war i
00:30:10.460Remember, for the first few months, you said, if they stop now, it'll be okay.
00:30:13.220A few months ago, you said, point of return.
00:30:15.320I don't see this war ending for another six months, a year, or longer.