00:05:46.340These are things we can't observe through general principle.
00:05:49.400And when we have that grasp, even when we are looking at countries that seem very, very
00:05:55.080different, peoples with very different traditions or understandings, ultimately, we can use
00:06:00.500that general knowledge to draw conclusions and this is just a very simple uh you know thing that
00:06:06.740we need to grasp that yes there are always these different variables we can't just generalize
00:06:11.900everything and pour everything into the same bucket every time but we aren't interested in
00:06:16.680just pointing out all the differences that doesn't do us any good if we're trying to have a general
00:06:21.660understanding of where these things are going what is happening in a way that is useful and predictive
00:06:26.280for us to implement we need to be willing to take the entire breadth of human experience
00:06:31.240and study it for the things that we can at some level universalize i don't i i know it's
00:06:38.780maybe it's the the sign of the times you know oh you know everyone's different are they
00:06:45.220really i mean i i know it's it's sort of been invoked to like say that but
00:06:49.740my general observation particularly over like i guess the last few years is that
00:06:54.500the the generalizations are actually much more accurate than most people want to realize
00:06:58.880i would also take issue it's it's kind of funny seeing glob um moaning about the fact that someone
00:07:05.180didn't want to do a tv program it's like oh it would have been totally fascinating if they if
00:07:11.480they just give me the give me the money in bbc like totally bounced him um love is totally the uh
00:07:16.680the arab version of a weeb right like he's just obsessed with the foreign culture and he inserts
00:07:21.260it whenever possible uh even though it seems highly irrelevant to most people he's a musweeb
00:07:27.040or something perhaps yes yeah um this this assertion um that he says i presume this is
00:07:33.180sort of central to his work this idea that's uh if only britain in 19 you know in in whenever he
00:07:39.440was like writing um had studied the arab empire it would have known everything that would have
00:07:45.920happened up to 1976 i i highly doubt that number one and number two um no one's going to be
00:07:53.880convinced of that i i think there's if if if glub is correct then possibly one of the things that
00:08:00.220he leaves out is that any sort of analysis like this is going to suffer from cassandra syndrome
00:08:05.980no one no one ever wants to be told oh yeah by the way your empire has like a finite life cycle
00:08:12.320and no no no everyone's gonna be like no no no you don't understand where we're different right
00:08:16.980uh you know our racial purity or our incredible academics or our fine art or our incredible army
00:08:22.580will save us from the predation of of entropy so i don't i i don't i mean i i guess it's easy being
00:08:31.320an academic and just saying like oh if only everyone had listened to me everything would
00:08:36.760turned out fine except and it's interesting because of course it also contradicts kind of
00:08:42.680his own implication in this essay that these factors are largely unavoidable uh that these
00:08:50.900are the natural life cycles that these are the rhythms that there it doesn't matter if you're
00:08:54.820authoritarian or democratic doesn't matter if you're military or mercantile uh eventually you
00:09:00.660all head through these phases you all inevitably move through this life cycle of civilizations
00:09:05.120this you know the the whole civilizational cycle is completely kind of locked into human nature
00:09:11.640well if that's true then having information on the fact that you know you do eventually
00:09:17.040go through these periods in decline it doesn't matter because you're going to go through them
00:09:21.020anyway and there is this is where like the fatalism of cyclical history really steps in
00:09:28.920right because you see this again reflected in cyclical historians like Oswald Spangler where
00:09:34.480He says, ultimately, you know, it's at the end of civilizations where wise men put into their tomes all the things about the the civilization that can no longer be changed.
00:09:45.460Right. They know the inevitability. They know the truth. They know the cycles. Spangler himself sees himself playing this role.
00:09:51.320And to be fair to Spangler and even to Glob to some degree, like ultimately you can do nothing else.
00:09:58.300That's kind of Spengler's whole point. If you are in civilizational winter, you can never be the children of spring. You can never be the ones who are lighting the civilization again and fighting for a vigorous and vital society. It's not an option available to you.
00:10:18.240So it's not even a criticism from Spangler, who himself is doing the very thing he's talking about, of kind of, you know, putting in these tomes the inevitability of the decline of his civilization.
00:10:29.820It's simply something that is inescapable.
00:10:32.840And this is why, you know, Spangler has the famous optimism is cowardice, right?
00:10:37.220He talks about the Roman centurion standing as the lava flows towards him in Pompeii and standing his watch no matter what, even though his death is inevitable, because this is what a noble man does.
00:10:51.080He accepts the inevitability of his fate and faces it honorably.
00:10:56.180And so there is a certain level of kind of irony that Glob is talking about the inevitability of these cycles, but seems, at least when it comes to his own little pet area of Arab history, to say, well, if only you had known about this, then you could have made all of these changes.
00:11:12.580And of course, to some extent, that is what we are doing today, right? We are uncovering these texts of cyclical history because we feel ourselves to be in the same position, right? We're mining through the inevitability of these issues because we can almost feel the inevitability bearing down on us.
00:11:31.080And I would just say that whether you think that we have the ability to revive the civilization or not, ultimately, the point is, you don't get to cop out of your responsibilities, even if you think you're in the decline, you don't get to suddenly abandon your post and say, well, then nothing can be done.
00:11:50.780And it doesn't matter what I do, because ultimately, you know, we're locked locked in the cycle. No, you still have agency, you still have duty, you still have to behave honorably and work to better your life and the life of people around you. And so even if you do embrace this view of history, remember that that does not then absolve you of personal agency.
00:12:10.960i still think that cyclical history is a better model than linear history though at least if you
00:12:17.640if you believe in in cyclical history you could be on the lookout for for a decline whereas the
00:12:24.160linear history the idea that everything is just going to keep getting better like no matter what
00:12:27.840we do right because we're like so incredibly awesome seems like it's got even more pitfalls
00:12:32.260than um than cyclical history i mean look at look at where the the i mean where europe is now sort
00:12:38.860of you know basically obsessed with the idea of linear history oh everything's going to just keep
00:12:43.440getting better all we need to do is add more laws and more regulations and you know more contrived
00:12:49.080rights and you know through sort of this magic process of of alchemy things will just continue
00:12:54.340to get better i i think if more people believed in cyclical history there might be more people
00:12:59.960watching out for the signs of decline and being like no no listen we don't want to we don't want
00:13:05.960they wouldn't take um progress uh historical progress for granted well and as i always say
00:13:12.640you know i i i agree with you very much so that wig history is a disaster disastrous model to
00:13:18.600to understand history but i always say that we're we're kind of in the the dna helix you know uh
00:13:25.180of history you know where it yes it it spirals back but it's always progressing a little bit
00:13:30.880each time it's not that it's i don't think it's totally cyclical and i don't think it's totally
00:13:35.440linear which i understand is uh you know uh putting me as some kind of a moderate fence
00:13:40.680sitter but i do think that ultimately we see the patterns of history uh they're undeniable
00:13:45.700in many ways unavoidable but they do change every time depending on kind of this forward progress
00:13:52.400uh so the the the dynamics do i think uh alter quite radically as you move forward in time even
00:13:59.340though those patterns continuously emerge throughout you want to hit a variety of calls
00:14:04.940there uh 34 a variety of falls sounds like a nature reserve it has been shown that normally
00:14:14.300the rise and fall of great nations are due to internal reasons alone 10 generations of human
00:14:20.220beings suffice to transform the hardy and enterprising pioneer into the capitus citizen
00:14:26.260of the welfare state uh capitus uh captius uh it basically means fickle he uses it a bunch in this
00:14:34.120uh whereas the life histories of the great nations show an unexpected uniformity the nature of their
00:14:40.140falls depends largely on outside circumstances and thus shows a high degree of diversity
00:14:46.220the roman republic as we have seen was followed by the empire which became a super state in which
00:14:52.800all of the natives of the mediterranean basin regardless of race possessed equal rights the
00:14:57.780name of rome originally a city-state passed from it to an equalitarian international empire
00:15:03.800this empire broke in half the western half being overrun by northern barbarians the eastern half
00:15:09.700forming the east roman or byzantine empire the vast arab empire broke up in the 9th century
00:15:15.880into many fragments of which one former colony colony muslim spain ran its own 250 year course
00:15:22.180as an independent empire the homelands of syria and iraq however were conquered by successive
00:15:28.080waves of turks to whom they remained subject for a thousand years the mamaluk empire of egypt and
00:15:34.720syria on the other hand was conquered in one campaign by the ottomans excuse me the native
00:15:41.580population merely suffering a change of masters the spanish empire 1500 to 1750 endured for the
00:15:49.060conventional 250 years terminated only by the loss of its colonies the homeland of spain fell
00:15:55.080indeed from its high estate of a superpower but remained as an independent nation until today
00:16:01.360well it's not independent anymore romanov russia from 1682 to 1916 ran the normal course but was
00:16:08.400succeeded by the soviet union it is unnecessary to labor the point which we may attempt to
00:16:14.180summarize briefly any regime which attains great wealth and power seems with remarkable
00:16:19.020regularity to decay and fall apart in some 10 generations the ultimate fate of its component
00:16:24.600parts however does not depend on its internal nature but on the other organizations which
00:16:29.920appear at the time of its collapse and succeed in devouring its heritage thus the lives of great
00:16:35.460powers are surprisingly uniform but the results of their falls are completely diverse interesting
00:16:42.320so this is yeah very fascinating he puts an emphasis on the internal decay that yes
00:16:49.080there are ultimately you know some barbarians that come by and kind of knock the civilization
00:16:54.920down uh sure there are uh you know things like we talked about that are uncontrollable like famine or
00:17:00.920plague or these kind of things that might finish the job off of any given civilization but it is
00:17:06.440a spiritual decline right that that's really the focus here is that uh the life cycle is almost
00:17:13.080entirely spiritual uh both the rise and the fall the vigor and the decadence uh all come from you
00:17:20.060know this journey that people go through uh as as a collective nation and it's interesting because
00:17:26.280of course he points out that the decadence is is an issue here uh that that is always uh you know
00:17:31.800a big problem and when you look at uh some efforts that even say like a civilization like sparta
00:17:39.180made to ensure they kept their people poor, personally poor for a reason, to try to avoid
00:17:47.380exactly this. And Machiavelli warns against this. He says that you need to keep the citizens of your
00:17:51.720republic basically very poor in order for them to ultimately be virtuous. They can't be virtuous
00:17:58.840when they have too many goods, too much wealth, excess of these kind of things. And so that's
00:18:05.680Particularly interesting because, of course, this is the opposite of our current modern understanding of problems, right?
00:18:12.280The current outlook in our incredibly mercantile and capitalistic kind of worldview is that abundance will solve all problems, that it is the introduction of great wealth that will kind of lift all boats with the tide and ultimately kind of ameliorate all of the issues that come with social decay or decline, right?
00:18:35.460We defeated the Soviet Union because we had blue jeans, you know, and stocked grocery stores, right? These are the ideas. But of course, we look at the current situation in a place like South Korea, and they're going to, North Korea is going to outlive South Korea.
00:18:50.840North Korea is a completely devastated totalitarian hellscape, and they're going to outlive their decadent southern capitalistic brethren because there's just a complete end of the desire to continue that civilization in any meaningful sense, despite being incredibly rich comparatively.
00:41:45.000yeah not not a whole lot to say about uh this one it's mainly glub saying if someone would
00:41:53.080just give me a bunch of money we could figure this all out uh so and you know man i hear that
00:41:58.060too in fact you know mr fist and i are prepared to establish this exact program uh at your
00:42:04.240university uh if you would like to give us a sinecure uh we we will do our best and establish
00:42:10.500to it so uh you know get get those fabled right-wing donors i've told are just sitting
00:42:15.300everywhere everywhere with their pocketbooks ready and uh you too can fund your cyclical
00:42:19.940history studies uh we we don't worry we will figure it out we will know the truth
00:42:24.260podcasters university it's it's it's gonna be amazing bros like like really you know
00:42:29.760we joke but we literally have multiple friends who have podcasting universities
00:42:34.080would it help it is pleasing to imagine that from such studies a regular life pattern of nations
00:42:44.840would emerge including the analysis of various changes which ultimately led to decline decadence
00:42:51.080and collapse it is tempting to assume that measures could be adopted to forestall the
00:42:56.260disastrous effects of the excessive wealth and power and events of subsequent decadence
00:43:03.760Perhaps some means could be devised to prevent the activist age of conquest and commerce deteriorating into the age of intellect, producing endless talking but no action.
00:43:18.000Perhaps it is the pattern of the rise and fall of nations where, regularly taught in school, the general public would come to realize the truth and would support policies to maintain the spirit of duty and self-sacrifice
00:43:27.800and to forestall the accumulation of excessive wealth by one nation leading to the demoralization
00:43:33.460of the nation. Could not the sense of duty and the initiative needed to give rise to action be
00:43:39.980retained parallel to the intellectual development and the discoveries of natural science?
00:43:45.380The answer is doubtful, though. We could but try. The weakness of human nature, however,
00:43:51.060are so obvious that we cannot be too confident of success. Men bursting with courage, energy,
00:43:56.820and self-confidence cannot easily be restrained from subduing their neighbors and men who see
00:44:01.620the prospect of wealth open to them will not readily be prevented from pursuing it perhaps
00:44:07.440it is not the real interest of humanity that we should so uh we should be so prevented and it is
00:44:13.520in the periods of wealth and art architecture music science and literature which make great
00:44:17.660progress moreover as we have seen uh where great empires are concerned their establishment may
00:44:23.400give rise to wars and tragedies but their periods of power often bring peace security and prosperity
00:44:29.780to vast areas of territory our knowledge and our experience perhaps your our human basic human
00:44:36.840intellect are inadequate to pronounce whether or not the rise and fall of great nations is the best
00:44:42.680system for the best of all possible worlds these doubts however need to need not prevent us from
00:44:48.540attempting to acquire more knowledge on the rise and fall of great powers or from endeavoring in
00:44:53.720the light of such knowledge to improve the moral quality of human life perhaps in fact we may reach
00:44:59.940the conclusion that the successive rise and fall of great nations is inevitable and indeed a system
00:45:05.120divinely ordained but even this could be an immense gain for we should know where we stand in relation
00:45:10.720to our human brothers and sisters in our present state of mental chaos on the subject we are
00:45:16.060divide ourselves into nations, parties, or communities, and fight, hate, and vilify one
00:45:21.880another over developments which may perhaps be divinely ordained, and which seem to us,
00:45:28.220if we take a broader view, completely uncontrollable and inevitable. If we could
00:45:33.140accept these great movements as beyond our control, there would be no excuse for hating
00:45:38.300one another because of them. However varied, confusing, and contradictory the religious
00:45:43.100history of the world may be the noblest most spiritual of devotees of all religions seems to
00:45:49.040reach the conclusion that love is the key to human life and any expansion of our knowledge which may
00:45:54.140lead to reduction in our unjustified hates is therefore surely well worthwhile so interestingly
00:46:02.100here glub completely contradicts his previous assertion that if we just understood uh you know
00:46:07.120these these cycles of history then we could know something or change something about them and he
00:55:38.800Can you, is it moral to be basically an expat, to leave your country and continue your clan, but in a different position?
00:55:47.160Obviously, I think that this is very context-based.
00:55:51.400So for me, I think that it is really imperative to, if you are in a place where you can make a difference and you can raise a family and be relatively safe,
00:56:04.960I think it's important to stay and fight for the institutions that you have.
00:56:09.940I think that there is a nobility to fighting for your home no matter what.
00:56:15.960I rib on my conservatives in blue states, but ultimately they are doing something noble by staying and fighting.
00:56:23.360However, there is a moment at which I think it becomes too much if you are not willing to functionally take up arms, American Revolution style.
00:56:32.820uh you know there i know people who have you know children who would have like basically been
00:56:37.820abducted from the by the government if they hadn't moved out of where they were uh and so
00:56:42.500they simply cannot continue to fight in that arena and i totally respect that as well so my
00:56:47.780general inclination is you know stay and fight for your homeland stay and fight for what you believe
00:56:53.180in uh but you know i am an american we are defined literally by leaving england and starting our own
00:56:58.580thing uh so you know there are moments where eventually you know for you know heading somewhere
00:57:04.380else and fighting uh is the correct option or on you need to do what we do in the uk uh where we
00:57:11.120get a bunch of people together and we pick up uh our spoons um which of course is the only weapon
00:57:17.120that we are allowed to uh wield uh you know if the government says and uh then we do a thing called
00:57:23.540the great spoonining uh where we gather outside of the palace of the tyrant bang our spoons together
00:57:30.580and deliver a harshly worded letter and it's going great uh one of the great things about
00:57:35.040england of course is that giving your government a harshly worded letter is absolutely the key to
00:57:41.400success so yeah uh good to see you nuj yeah i i think i think you basically summed it up like
00:57:47.440Yes, stay and fight, but at the same time.