00:08:29.160We have all these different competing interest groups
00:08:33.380and and fiefs and you know you you uh uh curtis yarvin's favorite example is is like virology
00:08:42.500and how uh in the domain of virology the way you win is by making virology super important
00:08:51.540and making it really salient and drawing a lot of a lot of funding to the field of virology
00:08:56.900and if you fail to do that or refuse to do that then you will sort of you won't get published and
00:09:01.300And you won't get media attention and all these things.
00:09:03.720And so the people who rise to the top are people who are willing to do that.
00:09:07.520And the best way to make virology really, really sort of politically relevant and salient and get a lot of money thrown at it is to engineer a plague.
00:09:17.040And so it's that phenomenon, if you can think of that as like a symbol or a metaphor, it's all of these little fiefs trying to make their things salient and relevant.
00:09:29.540and uh and and yeah there's the thing is not a person it can't see in that sense and i i sort of
00:09:39.580um there's a lot of like uh there's a lot of like dooming on on these topics uh and and people
00:09:47.920saying like was kind of hopeless it's sort of uh this headless monster that we can't defeat
00:09:52.500but one of the things that's uh really important to understand about this monster is that it can't
00:09:59.380see basic things like that like the fact that it's it's it's uh sort of headed for a cliff and
00:10:05.760there's no breaks um and it also can't like it can't assess threats the way a person can and so
00:10:12.720you can build all kinds of capacity that that system can't read as threatening um and so it's
00:10:18.400less about like you know um it's less about how powerful that system is and it's more about like
00:10:24.320Where are the vulnerabilities where like what doors are left unguarded?
00:10:29.420So, yeah, that's that's why it's it it doesn't see those things because it can't see those things.
00:10:35.760All right, so let's get to the core problem itself.
00:10:38.420The article is largely about fertility rates, family formation, like why this isn't happening as somebody who has looked at this extensively, held conferences on it, written on it.
00:10:50.560I think you kind of come to the early conclusion, the article that the reason that we have low
00:10:57.860fertility is obvious and absolutely no one will talk about it. So Kevin Dolan, what is the obvious
00:11:05.100and incredibly offensive answer to why we have low birth rates? Well, yeah, so I introduced it
00:11:09.920kind of as a troll. The strongest correlation between fertility and any other sort of social
00:11:17.440science variable is uh educating and employing women like and and and what i sort of uh talk
00:11:25.340about in the article is i think there are a lot of people on the right who sort of view that problem0.54
00:11:31.620unseriously because they have this sort of like why i oughta like we oughta put these broads in
00:11:37.480their place and like and and what they're sort of failing to recognize is it's not like we have1.00
00:11:43.820this fertility problem because women are like getting too many PhDs or the, or there are too1.00
00:11:48.420many female C-suite executives. It's like this correlation exists at the level of like being1.00
00:11:54.900taught to read and escaping subsistence agriculture. And like, you know, uh, not,
00:12:00.560not sort of losing your teeth at, at 30. Like it's, it's the only countries that have escaped
00:12:07.880this uh this sterilizing trend are uh places where none of us want to live places where
00:12:17.940and and and there's no there's no conceivable serious plan to like replicate those circumstances
00:12:24.600uh it was sort of like um it's sort of like the way the way they uh they way they got on
00:12:30.980Mitt Romney's case for talking about self-deportation uh that we just we just make life
00:12:36.100harder for these people until they all leave um it's like you can't make their lives harder than
00:12:45.600they are in like cameroon you can't make their lives like without without destroying the country
00:12:51.700without making your life like it is in cameroon and or like it would be so so uh basically it's
00:12:59.580it's this sort of thought terminator for a lot of people uh as soon as they sort of
00:13:04.720there's tons of people talking about fertility who like just won't see this can't see this don't0.95
00:13:10.240want to talk about it period and so they come up with all kinds of like stupid like polishing the0.98
00:13:16.100brass on the titanic type solutions for this problem uh but then there's another set who like0.98
00:13:21.120they sort of um either either it's it's it's tends to be either leftists or like you know
00:13:25.940pretty right-wing guys where they say well the thing is it's it's it's women's education
00:13:31.620and which generally means like either uh shut up stop talking about this or it means like
00:13:40.080i don't know like it just it just sort of becomes this vague like we're at some point we're gonna
00:13:46.520turn into the taliban uh and like yeah yeah you know keep women at home and and make sure that
00:13:52.880they never walk outside and interact with a book but like realistically these are not you know this
00:13:58.500is not anything that's coming right like that that tends to be the the terminating on the right now
00:14:02.980you do talk about some of the attempts that nations have tried right like there's direct
00:14:08.480bribery by the government there's you know tax incentives uh you know built-in uh you know things
00:14:14.520uh for for child care all of that uh but you're you're pretty dour on that what why don't these
00:14:20.160managerial solutions solve this problem what seems to be the issue there we know why we can't go back
00:14:26.980to afghanistan but why can't we just pay women more to have kids well number one the math just
00:14:33.760doesn't pencil out like like the the the sacrifice that you're asking of people to uh have these kids
00:14:41.320is enormous and uh the kind of person who would have a kid for a thousand bucks is like not
00:14:50.080necessarily the person that you want raising kids like it's like those incentives are not good
00:14:54.300incentives. Um, but also, uh, and this is, this is sort of like where I try to get to with the,
00:15:01.020with the women's education and employment thing. The reason that, uh, women's education and1.00
00:15:07.240employment is, is correlated with, uh, declining fertility is not that like the moment a woman
00:15:15.120learns to read, she goes like, anything's better than having kids. Like I I'd rather do literally0.71
00:15:23.760anything. And you could use, number one, if you just have contact with women, period, you know,0.99
00:15:29.680that's not true. If you look at history, it's obviously not true. But what it does correlate
00:15:34.380with in terms of being employed, being educated, it's a proxy for being integrated into sort of
00:15:43.320the global marketplace, right? It's, you know, you get your smartphone and it's not necessarily,
00:15:49.120it's not the smartphone itself. It's being connected to this infinite marketplace where
00:15:55.080there are zero costs for defection, where nobody has any leverage. And so you can't interact in
00:16:01.120this, uh, this illegible relational social domain that women in particular are, uh, sort of deeply0.99
00:16:11.200adaptive to. Um, and so what that means is, uh, we think about family life, family life involves
00:16:19.600enormous amounts of, uh, placing a bet on another person. Like, you know, you, you, you sort of have
00:16:28.320to, a woman has to marry a guy, uh, before he's really come into his own before he's like, you0.97
00:16:36.740know become who he's going to become and she's got to stick with him through that like sort of
00:16:42.960difficult uh period where they're broke and then uh you know her sort of looks will fade and she0.86
00:16:53.100will get older and he will stay sort of reproductively viable for a couple decades after
00:16:58.020that and he's got to stick with her sort of in acknowledgement of the fact that she stuck with him
00:17:03.880and there's this big coordination problem this big uh and we used to solve that with reputation
00:17:09.620we used to solve that with like you know you don't get a girl in trouble you don't run out
00:17:13.540on people and you know and and and uh most of the most of all of your economic and social activity
00:17:19.980took place with other people who you had always known and were always going to know like your
00:17:25.720your social universe was in a sense closed uh which meant that reputation mattered and there
00:17:32.400were costs for defection real like costs and one of the things i talk about is like your your uh
00:17:38.560your mother put all this work into you and there wasn't like it wasn't like the sheriff would come
00:17:46.000sometimes but like usually it's not like the sheriff would come or she'd sue you for your
00:17:50.660you know because you're supposed to take care of your mom when she's older right
00:17:53.600instead it was just like culturally expected and everyone around you would uh
00:18:00.160call you a dirt bag if you didn't take care of your mom, right? And we sort of now regard those
00:18:08.900reputational illegible things as sort of toothless, but they were not toothless in any other period of
00:18:15.820history. They were extremely concrete and they had real consequences. And so it's the evaporation
00:18:22.060of that relational bond, which is, again, it's what managerial liberalism is just designed to
00:18:27.580eat, to chew up and deconstruct, both in terms of the relationship between parent and child and
00:18:34.520the relationship, the lateral relationship between men and women and families. My conclusion basically
00:18:41.440in the piece is that there's no, like human beings won't raise families unless they can do it in this
00:18:48.800deeply high trust relational contextual frame. And if you try to make them do it as a transaction,
00:19:20.640by expectations of steady economic growth,
00:19:23.440which you can't have if the population collapses.
00:19:26.360And so the case I'm making is like, you know, that's why they care about it. That's why like, or they should care about it. That's why you get all these think pieces about it from sort of liberal publications. And so trying to wrestle with this. But the reason we should care about it is like, oh, we've created, we've created a world that humans don't want to raise families in. Like, that's just a fundamental, like a spiritual indictment of the world that we live in. We got to fix that.
00:19:52.540right um so go ahead oh sorry go ahead uh well i was gonna say um let's talk a little bit about
00:19:59.980how this transition took place because i think that's what catches a lot of people off guard
00:20:05.060when they're having this discussion uh you know we we're constantly hearing from you know older
00:20:09.780generations well just you know go out and meet a woman at the bar you know you know shake shake
00:20:14.700the boss's hand uh you know look him straight in the eye he'll offer you his daughter as you know
00:20:19.440and a dowry you know like this we get that kind of advice right and so you have this moment where
00:20:24.960it's hard for them that they look at the money in people's bank accounts or they the economic
00:20:29.760activity and they say look you know you have more money or you know you have more luxury than
00:20:34.720previous generations it should be easy it should be fine to you know make this happen and one of
00:20:40.580the things that you talk about uh in the piece is that integration into the global marketplace
00:20:46.740that I think is so important because the other way to say this when I'm stealing terms from
00:20:54.020crazy Marxists is you're deterritorializing, right? You're moving things out of the realm
00:21:00.220of the sacred, out of the realm of social capital and tradition and hierarchy and bonds,
00:21:06.620and you're moving it into the marketplace. And so what we've done is we have commodified
00:21:11.280every aspect of this familial relationship that used to be the building block of society. Instead
00:21:18.240of a woman taking care of her children, you hire someone to take care of the children. Instead of1.00
00:21:22.660a woman taking care of the home, you hire someone to clean the home and organize things. Instead of1.00
00:21:28.060having parents educate their children, we pay a teacher to educate your children. Every interaction,
00:21:35.760whether it's taking care of your parents or, you know, being responsible for a woman you
00:21:41.700impregnated. These are all now functions of the court, economic functions. They can all be
00:21:47.120quantified, placed into dollars, packaged and resold. And this creates a serious problem for
00:21:53.880what you call the Moloch trap. So can you talk a little bit about that kind of liquefying the,
00:21:59.480you know, the kind of social capital that once existed in this familiar relationship,
00:22:04.020turning it into globalization and how that creates a coordination problem yeah so johan
00:22:09.040kurtz wrote a really really good piece on this i don't know if you've had him on the show you
00:22:12.220should i did yeah yeah that piece was phenomenal yeah awesome yeah so uh it it's a phenomenon that
00:22:18.380i i've started calling dark poverty it's like dark matter or uh it's it's this invisible poverty
00:22:24.040uh because yeah like all of the the sensor apparatus of liberalism says you know gdp's
00:22:31.280up and household incomes up and houses are bigger and all this stuff you think about um
00:22:36.960spotify ads manager makes it easy to create your first audio ad in minutes for free sign up today
00:22:44.300launch a campaign and start reaching your audience uh the best example i could think of is like uh
00:22:52.280i grew up in north texas and like every house had a pool and um you can see from like satellite
00:22:59.920images. It's just lines of pools. And, and, and most of these pools are like barely ever used.
00:23:06.940And, uh, you know, why is that the case? Is it because we're just so, uh, uh, wealthy that we
00:23:13.780just prefer to have our own pools? Like, no, it's because all of the common spaces are completely
00:23:17.600unlivable. We've, we've, we've made it so that, uh, you, you can only own, you can only control
00:23:25.160property that you as an individual control. You can't collectively own property
00:23:30.340the way that you could have in the pre-1964 regime. You funnel everything into the domain
00:23:43.420that you can actually protect and gate. You get these big homes with all the amenities packed
00:23:47.480inside, and it's incredibly overpriced. You have to compete for... There's a great book,
00:23:55.160two, two income trap by Elizabeth Warren of all people, which, where she talks about, uh,
00:24:00.660the competition for positional goods. So, uh, you know, you can, you can make more cars,
00:24:07.260you can make, you know, better food, et cetera. You can't make more of the best school in town
00:24:13.180school district. Right. Uh, and so people will engage in this extreme, like zero sum competition
00:24:21.140for these positional goods in order to escape things that used to be unthinkable.
00:24:28.100So the idea that your kid would be the victim of a violent crime at school
00:24:35.600was just not on most people's radar 50 years ago, 100 years ago.
00:24:40.840And now it's like, no, I have to pay a $250,000, $350,000 premium on my home value in order to escape that very real possibility in a lot of these cities.
00:24:56.160And so it's like you have to pay for that.
00:25:00.200You have to pay – so much of like the – you see these women on these dating apps who are like, yeah, a man should spend $500 on our first date.
00:25:08.520and uh you know that's kind of an extreme example and like you know there are of course women who1.00
00:25:16.420are more reasonable than that but like what is causing that phenomenon what's causing that1.00
00:25:20.860phenomenon is that in the absence of any kind of reputational capital in the absence of any kind of
00:25:27.340binding common culture. It's, uh, you know, I have hundreds of thousands of, uh, swipes to do,
00:25:38.280and there has to be some kind of a gate. And so we're just going to turn it into like a cash
00:25:42.320transaction, a commodity, which, you know, is kind of an indistinguishable from prostitution,
00:25:46.520but like it's, that's, that's what everything is like. Everything is commodified in that way.
00:25:51.340And so people can sort of on paper have more material goods, but it's at the cost of burning all of this illegible social, you know, like if you grew up in the, in the sixties and you know, you were in like a two bedroom house and there were like four kids in the house.
00:26:12.120well yeah you'd bunk up and it was a little tight but like the kids had the run of the whole
00:26:16.780neighborhood and like that was that was their space and it was completely safe and it was
00:26:22.440completely functional and and so yeah you just come home and sleep and that's not a big deal
00:26:28.080now it's like well you got a bigger house but like you're stuck in the house and that's uh
00:26:33.460you know they've done like those studies where it's like yeah his his his grandpa would walk
00:26:39.34010 miles to the river and his dad would you know walk to the corner grocery store and he
00:26:44.920you know cps might get called if he's alone by himself in the yard like it's everything is
00:26:51.360becoming more confined and constrained and i think there's a very real analogy to like breeding and
00:26:55.600captivity like people just won't do it can you specifically explain the moloch trap uh definition
00:27:03.000because i think that game theory really helps people understand what the issue is here otherwise
00:27:08.220they have such a hard like you know we've talked about the social capital i actually had johan on
00:27:13.100to discuss that exact article and of course you touched on it very much there and it's important
00:27:17.500but specifically your your point about social coordination and why it fails when we're in this
00:27:23.720mode i think is critical for people to kind of get over the threshold and understand the issue
00:27:27.920yeah so um scott alexander writes a great blog slate star codex and he's got an essay called
00:27:34.160meditations on moloch and uh it's from that alan ginsburg poem talks about moloch and it's it's uh
00:27:40.720moloch is this personification of uh coordination problems so it's it's the idea that we all
00:27:49.520are in a situation where our individual interest is served by doing something that's bad for the whole
00:27:56.320and if there's no one to coordinate us then we're all going to do what makes sense for us and we're
00:28:00.320we're going to burn the whole system down basically uh so an example of that that he gives is like
00:28:06.180uh you know there's there's uh polluting a lake or something and you know it's it's in everybody's
00:28:14.360interest to pollute the lake they get you know x percent of more productivity if they pollute the
00:28:18.540lake but eventually the lake gets so polluted that it's unusable for anybody and the whole system
00:28:22.300crashes and so you kind of you need a top down you need somebody who's got like a god's eye view
00:28:26.840who can see the whole system to say, actually, we're not going to, we're not going to pollute
00:28:30.860the way. Nobody's going to do that. And in this atomizing liberal frame where everyone is sort of
00:28:39.120the individual is the only dimension of analysis that matters. And, and sort of nobody has the
00:28:46.040right to coordinate people at a, at a broader scale than that. Well, you get like, like dating
00:28:54.160apps are this classic example of of uh where where everyone's interest is to sort of transactionalize
00:29:03.140and commodify what they're doing and nobody's happy like i think a lot of guys think of the
00:29:09.260dating app situation as something that's like really working out for the ladies and it's like
00:29:13.620not at all like like nobody's happy uh but it's still in everybody's individual interest to sort
00:29:19.980of and a lot of it's because uh you know if if there is no uh reputational capital if there's
00:29:27.800no coordinating mechanism of of culture or expectation then uh yeah you sort of everything
00:29:35.600gets converted into like raw transactional uh power relationships like that's what counts
00:29:41.960And so men and women are pursuing this like really raw transactional relationship mode of forming relationships.
00:29:54.620And it's just completely unworkable for everybody involved.0.74
00:29:58.200So you've kind of hinted at it multiple times, but one of the issues that we're facing here is that women used to work primarily in this domain of social capital.0.83
00:30:09.940Right. Like they were doing incredibly valuable work, but it didn't show up in GDP numbers. It doesn't produce economic activity. And so, you know, the managerial regime that needs to quantify everything, that needs everything to be a global market, they want to rip this up.0.97
00:30:25.680They want to, you know, kind of package it into discrete units that you can label with a price tag.
00:33:58.120Like, uh, basically the, what the message there is that the, uh, the, the, the parasite
00:34:10.180is going to destroy its own ability to survive before it can actually kill the host.
00:34:15.600And so what I see as the answer is, I mean, I see it as basically human judgment, human institutions are coming back one way or another. Like this system is unsustainable on all kinds of axes, the security axis, the financial axis, because there's no incentive to sort of save for the commonwealth of the United States.
00:34:43.740because what's what's happening right now is like if i don't spend this money that's what you got
00:34:47.640with like the five thousand dollar dividend right uh you know whether or not you think that'll happen
00:34:51.460whatever it's like uh the the the political incentives on both sides are uh yeah we need
00:35:00.800to loot the treasury and distribute it to our clients as quickly as we possibly can
00:35:05.100because if we don't then we'll lose and the other side will do it right and um that's sort of the
00:35:10.920race to the bottom zero sum game on the on the financial side there's no there's no plan for the
00:35:15.700deficit none whatsoever and so uh you know basically like do you believe that is sustainable
00:35:22.800on an infinite timeline i don't similarly i mean uh sort of the burning down of the social capital
00:35:28.460and the uh the the intensification of the fertility crisis it's very it's a very analogous phenomenon
00:35:36.260It's kind of the same thing. We are all incentivized to like burn down this commons until it's completely non-functional. And so what's going to remain, in my view, is like the fundamental substrate of human relationships, which is your family and the people that you know and love and have a shared history with.
00:35:58.280It's going to stop being these abstract ideological teams, and it's going to be who's actually going to make sure that I get to eat, who's actually going to make sure that my family's safe. It's going to be people you know and care about.
00:36:13.740And so everything that I do is about building those human relationships in that shared history. That's what Exit is about, my fraternity. It's about getting people together to build things with stakes so that they can place bets and have those bets pay off.
00:36:32.440and then they've got this shared history so that when things get much more complicated
00:36:36.420and much more difficult, they sort of know who their friends are.
00:36:40.040And that's one of the things that we're changing about the conference.
00:36:45.260We're going to be doing NATOCon 3 early next year.
00:36:49.400And the first two were very much like, let's look at the charts and graphs.
00:40:39.860If you're looking for things to get worse in a way that like the sort of basic functionality of these big, like the way these systems deliver value, deliver what is necessary to people, that breaks down.
00:40:55.740It's like, well, it's already happening. And you look at like, you look at these, these Somali enclaves, or you look at sort of what you look at this, this late unpleasantness in, in Texas, with the, with the migration situation.0.97
00:41:10.540um the people who are the best placed to uh exploit that situation are uh these sort of0.97
00:41:22.200illegible uh tribal groups you know people who people who know each other personally and who
00:41:29.460also are sort of aligned in the abstract and uh they are they are playing a pre-modern game
00:41:36.760And it turns out that playing that pre-modern game under these conditions is like super adaptive. So I basically what I would argue for is like, you just need to understand that like Mediterranean times call for Mediterranean solutions. Like you just have to be, you have to learn how to play that game a little differently. So it's, yeah, it's not accelerationism. It's just like, look at what, look at the, not, not like where it's going. Look at the reality on the ground right now and like adapt to that.
00:42:02.340so one more question before we go to uh the super chats here but one of the things that i have
00:42:11.420been observing is of course the rush to ai um every state recognizes the need for it at the
00:42:19.500moment uh largely driven by warfare obviously artificial intelligence already is and will
00:42:25.160continue to play a large role when it comes to the defense industry and your ability to
00:42:30.780kind of project power and protect your country but also because they recognize that ai might0.71
00:42:38.360be a solution for the liberal managerial class uh to the kind of the destruction of their their
00:42:46.300way of life right like right now manager managerial liberalism is kind of collapsing under its own
00:42:51.760complexity you know if you want to go with the turchin model like you know you're getting uh you