00:00:00.000We've been talking a lot about the polls here in the United States and about the fact that there is polling error and also margin of error.
00:00:06.000And the polls are sometimes just dead wrong.
00:00:18.000There's one that leans right, kind of the Fox News of Israel called Channel 14.
00:00:21.000Pretty much all of the polls in Israel had suggested that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his coalition, would end up smaller than the opposition, the so called Change Coalition.
00:00:31.000That is not how things actually broke down.
00:00:34.000So the Kalshi odds again, Kalshi is one of our sponsors.
00:00:38.000And according to the Kalshi odds, you can see the radical change in what people believed was going to happen in the Israeli elections between a couple of days ago and now.
00:00:47.000So a few days ago, you can see that Gadi Eisenkot as the next prime minister of Israel, he was up in the 45 to 50% range.
00:00:57.000The no one, meaning like there's going to be another future election was down in the 0% range.
00:01:03.000And then over the course of the evening, Eisenkopf plummeted below Netanyahu.
00:01:19.000It turns out that the results of the Israeli election, the ballots are still coming in.
00:01:23.000There are some 600,000 outstanding ballots, what are called double envelope ballots, meaning from members of the military who are currently serving or people who voted in a place that they weren't registered to vote.
00:01:34.000Those ballots have yet to be counted.0.58
00:01:35.000But bottom line is this Prime Minister Netanyahu survives.
00:01:39.000He will remain the prime minister of Israel as an interim prime minister or at the head of some sort of coalition government.
00:01:46.000To the great consternation of all of his enemies, to the great consternation of the left wing media, to the great consternation of Barack Ravid personally, there are a lot of people who are very, very, very upset.
00:01:56.000He didn't survive because somehow he rigged the election or because he is a dictator or any of the rest of that.
00:02:01.000He survived because it turns out the Israeli public is a right wing, middle to right public.
00:02:08.000We talked about this yesterday on the program.
00:02:12.00065% of Israeli Jews openly call themselves right wing, and another 10% call themselves moderate.
00:02:19.000Only 22% of Israeli Jews consider themselves left wing.
00:02:23.000So, what happened in the election last night is that the opposition took its best shot at Netanyahu and they came up short.
00:02:29.000Now, that doesn't mean that Netanyahu has a governing coalition.
00:02:31.000Again, to sort of review briefly here, we should, again, explain how the system works in Israel.
00:02:36.000So, basically, 120 seats in the parliament.
00:02:38.000You vote for one of the parties in the parliament.
00:02:41.000That party has to receive at least 3.25% of the vote in order to sit in the parliament.
00:02:46.000They have to have at least four seats proportionally to sit in the parliament.
00:02:50.000Then, if you and your friends can cobble together a 61 vote majority, you become the prime minister, and your coalition is the ruling coalition.
00:02:59.000For the last four years, Netanyahu's been the head of a ruling coalition that includes Likud, some right wing parties, one led by Betsala Smothrich, who is a right wing figure, one led by Itzmar Ben Gavir, who is sort of a more clownish and loud right wing figure, and then the Haredim, who are the ultra orthodox.
00:03:15.000That block has had a majority for the last four years.
00:03:19.000The election that was held last night was supposed to oust that block in favor of a so called change block.
00:03:24.000This would have been a bunch of left wing or center to center right parties that just disagree with Netanyahu and want him gone.
00:03:31.000And the leader of that block was a former IDF general named Gadi Eisenkopf, who has a personal story that includes a son who was killed in the October 7th war and a couple of nephews who were also killed in that war.
00:03:45.000In the aftermath of the election, Netanyahu's bloc remains the largest bloc, but short of that 61 vote majority.
00:03:52.000There are some exit polls, and the votes are still being counted.
00:03:55.000Netanyahu's coalition is likely to end up in the mid 50s, somewhere between 53 and 57 seats.
00:04:01.000Gade Eisenkopf's coalition is likely to end up somewhere in the 47 to 49 seat area.
00:04:07.000And the rest is taken up by the Arab parties.
00:04:11.000The Arab parties got outstanding numbers of votes, 80% voter turnout in the Arab community.
00:04:15.000Again, for an apartheid state, Israel is doing a horrible job of apartheiding.0.65
00:04:19.000It turns out that the highest propensity voters in Israel in the election yesterday, which was the highest voter turnout election in Israeli history since like 1969, The highest percentage vote came from the Arabs who are going to receive in the Knesset well over 15% of the Knesset seats.0.80
00:04:37.000The number one Arab party is an eliminationist party that believes Israel should not exist.
00:04:44.000That party, again, is led by people who openly advocate for the destruction of Israel, including Joint List member Osama al-Sa'adi, who yesterday said that he had dedicated their electoral strength To the people of Gaza and the West Bank, like full solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
00:05:05.000So, for an apartheid state, Israel, again, doing a horrible job.0.89
00:05:08.000Here was a member of the joint list.0.65
00:05:10.000This is one of the Arab parties that has never sat in a government and never will sit in a government because they literally refuse to sit in any government because they don't believe the state should exist.
00:05:22.000He says, We have brought down this fascist government, the government of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
00:05:28.000We dedicate this to our people in the Gaza Strip.
00:05:32.000In the West Bank and occupy Jerusalem.
00:05:35.000And to all the free people of the world.0.50
00:05:37.000Okay, now, again, people living under Hamas, not free.
00:05:40.000All the free people of the world and all our Palestinian people, wherever they may be.
00:05:45.000We're waiting for this historic moment.
00:05:50.000Now, again, remember, that is a sitting party in the Israeli Knesset, which is amazing.
00:05:57.000Their slate has received something like 11 seats.
00:05:59.000The Ra'am party, which is the supposed moderate Arab list, received about six seats in the Knesset.
00:06:06.000That party has sat in a coalition government before, but they also refused to call Hamas a terror group.
00:06:11.000So basically, here's what happened in the election the groups that showed up in lower propensity were the Haredim.
00:06:17.000The Haredim showed up, the ultra Orthodox showed up in lower propensity, but Netanyahu's voter bloc showed up.
00:06:23.000There were some right wing votes that didn't get counted because they went to a party led by a former general named Ofer Winter, who didn't surpass the 3.25% threshold.
00:06:31.000And so those votes were basically wasted.
00:06:34.000Bottom line is that the Eisenkopt coalition is a failure, it is a political failure.
00:06:38.000And so, what that means for the future here, again, I just want to point out again the lie that you constantly hear in the West that Israel's an apartheid state.0.72
00:06:48.000This is what it looked like in Israel.
00:07:25.000Well, it means that because Eisenkopf cannot form a majority, like there's basically no way for him to be prime minister at this point.
00:07:34.000Because basically, even if the Arabs sat outside the government and didn't vote for him, but also didn't vote against him, one of the rules in the Knesset is that you have to have more votes in favor of upholding your government than.
00:07:46.000In favor of rejecting your government.0.86
00:07:48.000If the Arabs just abstain, that's not enough.0.91
00:07:51.000So that leaves two options, both of which leave Netanyahu in charge of the government.
00:07:55.000One is keep going to elections over and over.
00:08:00.000There's another election in a few months.0.97
00:08:02.000If there's another election, it probably goes Bibi's way.0.97
00:08:05.000And the reason I say that is because the opposition had literally four years to organize, and this is the best they could do.0.95
00:08:09.000The Arab vote is very unlikely to show up in these kinds of numbers again.
00:08:13.000The opposition flew in 60,000 voters from abroad.
00:08:16.000You actually, if you're an Israeli voter, you have to vote in Israel.
00:08:19.000So that means that if you're an Israeli citizen living in the United States and you want to vote, You have to fly back to Israel to vote.
00:08:24.00060,000 people did and voted for the so called change block, and the change block still came up radically short.
00:08:30.000So you could keep going to elections over and over, but there are systemic factors that cut very much in favor of Netanyahu doing better in future elections than he did in this one, including, again, those wasted votes coming home to Likud, or the Haredi vote actually showing up in the numbers that it has in the past.
00:08:48.000Or possibility number two, which I think most people in Israel are probably voting for, which is a quasi unity government, meaning.
00:08:55.000One portion of the change block, perhaps Gotti Eisenkot joining the BB block to create a government.
00:09:00.000So Eisenkot theoretically becomes minister of defense.
00:09:50.000These elections are not about economics.
00:09:52.000Eisenkopf and Bibi basically agree on economics.
00:09:56.000These elections are about a bunch of ancillary issues to people outside of Israel, but primary issues to people inside Israel, like should the Haredim be forced to serve in the military?
00:10:06.000Or is Bibi personally too long lasting as prime minister?
00:10:10.000Has he worn out his welcome or whatever?
00:10:11.000Bottom line is the opposition coalition to Bibi is not large enough to create a functional government.
00:10:17.000And that means that you're likely to see basically a three month tango, as my friend Amit Segal, who reports for Channel 12, has said.
00:10:24.000You're likely to see a three month tango, and then theoretically a new election would be called.
00:10:31.000Or somebody caves and a coalition government is formed.
00:10:34.000But suffice it to say, the rumors of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political death were greatly exaggerated.
00:10:40.000And again, people treat that as though Netanyahu is sort of magicking this out of thin air, that he's bamboozled it.
00:10:52.000And that means that the widespread foreign perception about Netanyahu, the Israelis don't buy into the lie that a lot of American Jews have told themselves.
00:11:00.000A lot of American Jews who have a bunch of friends who hate Israel, and then those friends will say things like, I don't hate Israel, I just hate Bibi.
00:11:06.000And a lot of American Jews with left leaning opinions will be like, ah, same here.0.71
00:11:10.000And they feel better about themselves.
00:11:13.000And the people of Israel know that that's not true, which is why Netanyahu remains the effective prime minister.
00:11:20.000The Israelis recognize the truth, which is that their enemies hate them regardless of who the leadership is.
00:11:25.000Their enemies, like Representative Rashida Tlaib, terror supporter, extraordinary member of Congress, who tweeted out, regardless of which war criminal becomes prime minister, Palestinians living under Israeli apartheid will continue to face genocide, land theft, and erasure.
00:11:36.000We cannot accept lies, excuses, or half measures from our leaders.
00:11:39.000We must impose a full arms embargo and sanctions until Palestine is free again.0.98
00:11:42.000That's her saying that even if Bibi had been tossed, she would have been maintaining that same position.0.97
00:11:48.000Now, the Israelis have been resisting the Islamification of their country.0.89
00:11:53.000Again, a heavy percentage of the Arab population in Israel is voting for the extirpation of the state.0.97
00:11:57.000The Israelis are not in favor of that.0.83
00:11:59.000So, both sides of this political battle in Israel, the opposition and also the Likud side, they've said they need to form a Zionist only government.
00:12:07.000Whether they can or not remains a question up for debate.
00:12:10.000What they mean by that is people who want to destroy the state of Israel shouldn't sit inside the government.
00:12:15.000Western civilization more broadly should stand up to people.
00:12:21.000Well, you know, if you think so, head on over to dailywire.comslash subscribe to watch the full show ad free or check out this crazy story here.