00:00:12.000Republicans right now are in a much stronger position than they have been, not just compared to eight years ago, but over the long term as well.
00:00:20.000The relative health of the Republican party, at least in terms of party registration, is pretty gosh darn good.
00:00:26.000So you probably had not heard that little factoid until we just played it because we're in the middle.
00:00:31.000Of a big demoralization operation that's designed to get Republicans not to vote, right?
00:00:44.000And if it gets repeated enough, does it kind of become reality?
00:00:53.000Okay, so Republicans, right, we're about to get wiped out, destroyed, tsunami, meteor level destruction, dogs and cats living together, the end of the world, or maybe, maybe, maybe not.
00:01:04.000I want to take a quick survey of the Senate races because, again, what we keep hearing over and over again is that it's the end of the world, that Republicans are going to lose all these Senate seats.
00:01:13.000They're going to end up with zero Senate seats and Democrats will end up with 100.
00:01:16.000So the House, yeah, that one's pretty much a foregone conclusion because Republicans only have to lose two seats to lose the House.
00:01:23.000So get ready for Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.
00:01:26.000But the Senate tells a different story.
00:01:28.000As I've been saying, every single major Senate race is within the margin of error.
00:01:33.000So I'm looking at the poll numbers right now in Michigan.
00:01:35.000Or Abdul Rahman El Sayed is running against Mike Rogers.
00:01:39.000And according to that real clear politics polling average, El Sayed is running about 3.2 points ahead, but all of the latest polls are showing this thing within margin of error.
00:01:47.000Qantas has El Sayed up one, but the margin of error is 3.9.
00:01:52.000You go has El Sayed up one, but the margin of error is 2.5.
00:01:55.000Traffalgar has them up two, margin of error 2.9.
00:01:58.000Fox News has them up one, margin of error three.
00:02:01.000So again, all margin of error, but in the prediction markets, these vaunted prediction markets, places like our sponsors over at CalSheet, It's 69 to 31 in favor of El Sayed.
00:02:12.000I gotta say, these polls don't justify that.
00:02:14.000And I do recall when El Sayed was running against Haley Stevens, and he was a 99 shot to win that race.
00:02:21.000And that turned out to be kind of a demoralization operation on behalf of Abdul Rahman El Sayed.
00:02:27.000Because it turns out, if you tell everybody that Haley Stevens has no shot, some marginal number of people are going to not show up to vote for her.
00:02:34.000And that marginal number of people is all that separated her from actually becoming the Democratic nominee in that state.
00:02:39.000This is why I say, I am not sure by any stretch of the imagination that Al Sayed's in the lead.
00:02:44.000The Democrats are bringing Obama to Michigan for a reason.
00:02:47.000If you were well ahead, if you were way ahead the way Roy Cooper is way ahead in North Carolina, then Barack Obama would not be descending on Michigan to campaign with Al Sayed.
00:02:57.000Also, Michigan shows a pattern of Republicans outperforming final polling averages in recent presidential and also senatorial elections.
00:03:04.000In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton was polling 3.4% ahead, and then Trump won the state by 0.3 percentage points.
00:03:11.000In 2024, Harris was polling ahead by half a point.
00:03:16.000And again, with El Sayed's primary earlier this year, he was ahead 10 points in the real Kropolitics polling average, and he won by one.
00:03:24.000So I am not under any sort of certainty that El Sayed wins that seat against Mike Rogers.
00:03:30.000There's a big debate that's coming up between El Sayed and Mike Rogers that's going to make a world of difference.
00:03:34.000And you've already seen El Sayed trying to run away from the thing that distinguishes him as a candidate, namely the fact that he radically supports terrorism and loves pretty much every terror group and can't determine the difference.
00:03:46.000For the United States between Israel and Iran.
00:03:48.000And the fact that he campaigns with the San Pico, he's been walking away from that stuff.
00:03:51.000He's trying to run away from that stuff, screaming.
00:03:54.000I don't think Michiganders are stupid enough to let him fall for it.
00:04:03.000Maine, you have Susan Collins running against Troy Jackson.
00:04:05.000Troy Jackson looks like he has bodies hidden in his basement.
00:04:09.000Somehow, the Democrats in Maine came up with a candidate even less attractive than Graham Plattner, who actually probably did have bodies in his basement.
00:04:18.000Troy Jackson is a gigantic weirdo, like a very, very weird man who cuts weird ads.
00:04:23.000And Susan Collins is perhaps the most professional campaigner in modern American history.
00:04:27.000She's been Basically, set to lose her Senate seat a dozen times over at this point, and she wins every single time.
00:04:33.000In fact, the last time she ran in 2020, she won 51% of the vote.
00:04:38.000A late Emerson poll had her opponent beating her by six.
00:04:41.000A Pan Atlantic poll showed her opponent up by seven, and she won 51%.
00:04:45.000She ended up winning her seat by like eight points in that race.
00:04:48.000In 2014 and 2008, she won Maine by between 60 and 68%.
00:04:56.000And right now, if you look at that real club politics polling average, Troy Jackson, the gigantic weirdo who may, in fact, have paintings of clowns in his house.
00:05:25.000So in Texas, which of course is the big Democratic hope for pickup, The Real Clear Politics polling average has James Tallarico, the weird howdy duty Texas candidate who somehow knows his favorite drag queen.
00:05:37.000He is up 2.8 percentage points in Texas, according to that Real Clear Politics polling average.
00:05:41.000And again, the RCP polling average is a good way of sort of drawing a middle line.
00:05:48.000But it's also taking in all the data, including outlier polls, and kind of churning it through the machine.
00:05:53.000It prevents the outlier poll from defining the aggregate, but that outlier poll can, in fact, tug and yank the entire average out of whack.
00:07:07.000It's also possible that he has a narrow lead.
00:07:09.000He's kind of sitting on the narrow lead.
00:07:11.000He doesn't want to make a lot of big mistakes.
00:07:13.000One of those mistakes, by the way, would be taking a lot of money from Reed Hoffman.
00:07:17.000Reed Hoffman, of course, the tech investor.
00:07:19.000And now people are starting to notice that Reed Hoffman had a nasty history of hanging out with, say, Jeffrey Epstein.
00:07:24.000Now, again, one of the things that's happened with a lot of prediction markets is people take prediction markets as sort of a gospel truth.
00:07:32.000If someone is up in the prediction markets, that means they're definitely going to win.
00:07:35.000First of all, people don't know how to read percentages, just as a general rule.
00:07:38.000This is a point Nate Silver, the sort of pollster extraordinaire, has made in the past.
00:07:43.000He has said if you tell somebody that they have a 60% shot of something happening, their brain immediately goes to, it's going to happen.
00:08:29.000So, Iowa, you have Ashley Hinson versus Josh Turek.
00:08:32.000Turek is about as good a candidate as Democrats have put up this election cycle.
00:08:36.000He's sort of a blue dog Democrat, pretends to be moderate on issues, including trans and immigration.
00:08:41.000In the real politics, polling average is essentially a dead heat.
00:08:43.000Turek is up 0.7%, but CNN has Hinson up 2.
00:08:47.000Suffolk has Turek up 4, but in a poll where the margin of error is 4.4.
00:08:52.000Margin of error for people not familiar with statistical categories and calculations, that just means.
00:08:57.000That if a poll says 4844 Turek, it theoretically could be 4844 Henson, right?
00:09:07.000There's an error within which any outcome within that sort of margin of error is possible, equally possible, by the way.
00:09:15.000So if it says 4844 Turek, that means that that poll could theoretically be 52 to 40 in favor of Turek, or it could theoretically be 4844 in favor of Henson.
00:09:30.000So you really have to keep your eye on the margin of error when you look at these polls, because again, polls are just calculations of statistics, and how those statistics work actually matters in real life.
00:09:40.000New York Times, Siena, by the way, has Hinson up one.
00:09:43.000And yet, if you look at Calchee, Calchee actually on this one, they say 56% shot that Hinson wins.
00:09:49.000Okay, so again, if you take a look at this, even if you look at just the Calchee markets, the Calchee markets right now are suggesting that El Sayed is going to beat Rodgers.
00:09:59.000They're suggesting that Jackson is going to win.
00:10:35.00050 to 43 Peltola, but the margin of error is 5.1 points, which is really a very large margin of error and puts a possibility of a Republican victory basically on a nice edge there.
00:10:47.000Coefficient says 49 46 Sullivan, 3.5 percentage point margin of error, by the way.
00:10:52.000The Calcium markets suggest a 76 24 Democratic advantage in that seat.
00:10:58.000But again, I don't think that those prediction markets are, shall we say, in these cases, always predictive.
00:11:06.000None of this data makes a lot of sense because there's also data suggesting close races in, say, Kansas, close races in, say, New Hampshire.
00:11:13.000Our friend Clay Travis had a good tweet about this.
00:11:17.000It's impossible for Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota to be super close Senate races and Nebraska, Texas, Iowa, and Kansas to also be close.
00:11:30.000It'd be a very weird election cycle where Minnesota, where Michelle Tafoya is running an excellent race against the psychotic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan.
00:11:39.000It's impossible for Minnesota to be one point apart, but also for Kansas to be one point apart.
00:11:49.000And so I think some of these races are being mispolled.
00:11:51.000I think that there's a narrative that's being built.
00:11:54.000Now, Nate Silver, by the way, is saying the same thing.
00:11:56.000He's saying that this happens at the end of every election cycle, that a bunch of pollsters kind of start following each other around.
00:12:01.000They don't want to be the outlier polls.
00:12:03.000So if everybody in Poland is saying Democrats swamp, then all of a sudden you're going to start seeing other pollsters who congregate around that and also say that Democrats are going to swamp.
00:12:12.000They do the same shit they always do, right?
00:12:14.000They always wait until, like, why would you want to wait until the last minute to shift all your forecasts, right?
00:12:21.000The people individually at these agencies, and they have a good track record of what we would call discrimination in the business, not the bad kind of discrimination, but like meaning you distinguish relatively stronger and weaker cases.
00:12:33.000But like, yeah, they're, you know, the whole notion that like there's a democratic surge now, no, the environment's been pretty good for Democrats all year.
00:12:42.000To the extent there was a surge, it came after Labor Day with this latest round of gas price increases.
00:12:48.000But to say, oh, now things are like, now things are just.
00:13:05.000We saw this, for example, in 2016 when the polls were actually somewhat closed between President Trump and Hillary Clinton.
00:13:11.000But a narrative started to build up that there was no way she could possibly lose.
00:13:14.000And that's how you end up with everyone in America believing that Hillary Clinton is actually going to win.
00:13:18.000By the way, that perception may in fact have lost her in the election.
00:13:21.000So it's possible that the narrative buildup here in favor of a Democratic tsunami actually suppresses the Democratic turnout in certain ways because people figure they're going to win anyway.
00:13:30.000Now, again, it's not all good news for Republicans.
00:13:33.000I don't want to pretend like it's unalloyed good news.
00:13:36.000Here's the thing there are certain things that you can game for and certain things you cannot.
00:13:39.000You can't game for your own death, but you can game for what happens to your family financially if, God forbid, you plots.
00:13:45.000Well, this is why you need Policy Genius.
00:13:47.000It's a free online marketplace where you can compare quotes from some of America's top insurers side by side.
00:13:52.000Their licensed team explains coverage amounts, prices, and terms, answers your questions, handles the paperwork, advocates for you throughout the entire process.
00:13:59.000They help you find an affordable policy that actually meets your needs.
00:14:02.000So, Add life insurance to that fall maintenance list somewhere above investigate strange furnace.
00:14:27.000Jim Garrity has a good piece over in National Review pointing out that Republicans are spending gobs of money in states that normally they wouldn't spend at all.
00:14:42.000And again, that would be another error of the president's.
00:14:44.000The president decided that Tom Tillis was insufficient to fill the seats and ousted Tom Tillis.
00:14:49.000And now that's going to just turn into Roy Cooper, a Democrat.
00:14:51.000In any case, the SLF is spending $14 million to help Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas in his race against Adam Hamilton, which is not great.
00:15:00.000That, by the way, is a drop in the bucket.
00:15:02.000The same thing is true in South Carolina.
00:15:03.000They're spending $5 million just to help out Darlene Graham.
00:15:07.000They're still running some ads in the Senate race in Georgia, which is interesting.
00:15:11.000But in Ohio, they're out of $93 million to help Senator John Huston try to avoid his ouster against Sherrod Brown.
00:15:17.000In Texas, the Senate leadership fund has already spent $131 million.
00:15:21.000So again, some signs of obvious Republican weakness.
00:15:24.000And according to CNN, you're starting to see some early voting data that shows advantages for Democrats.
00:15:30.000According to CNN, in Iowa, Democrats have made 67% of ballot requests.
00:15:34.000That's up from 54% at this point in 2024.
00:15:37.000In Pennsylvania, it's 66%, up from 62%.
00:15:53.000Again, Republicans tend to vote a lot day of.
00:15:55.000This is just the reality about Republican and Democrat voting.
00:15:58.000So, those early balloting numbers aren't fully demonstrative of anything, given the fact that Republicans show up the day of.
00:16:04.000If it was going the other way, if Republicans were showing up very early to vote, you would imagine a Republican wipeout because Republicans pretty much everywhere tend to show up more to the polling place than Democrats, and Democrats tend to vote early.
00:16:17.000Now, as CNN does note, it's worth noting that in all of those states except for Iowa, Ballot requests at this point in 2022 were more Democratic than they are right now, which is to say Democrats are running in the early vote in a lot of these states behind where they were in 2022.
00:16:31.000Now, again, we're going to keep giving you this coverage.
00:16:33.000This is why you subscribe over at Daily Wire.
00:16:37.000We have an election hub over at dailywire.com.
00:16:39.000It'll be live next week and it will have interactive maps and a March Madness style bracket challenge where you can make and save your picks for the big contested races.
00:16:47.000On election night, we will all get together for special coverage of all the most important races.
00:16:51.000I'll be joining the other host, Gavin Phillips.
00:16:53.000We'll join to do live analysis and break down the results as they come in.
00:16:56.000So stay tuned for all of it at Daily Wire because we are nearing a very, very important election.
00:17:00.000What an amazing video you just watched.
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